Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’re at the quarter turn of the season (assuming the coronavirus doesn’t derail things), and the rookie picture is starting to come clearer. Each week we’ll have a better idea of what normal expectations will look like for the rookie crop. We were treated to some dazzling rookie performances from the wide receivers in week 4, from CeeDee Lamb’s 2 touchdowns, to Brandon Aiyuk’s acrobatic hurdle, to Justin Jefferson’s second straight 100-yard game. There have been plenty of intriguing rookie wideouts this season. Many of them are listed as borderline options this week, so please keep in mind that all players under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. I also want to mention that anywhere that you see fantasy points allowed referenced, it’s based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 5…
Rookies to Start:
RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC (Wk. 5: vs. LV): If you drafted Edwards-Helaire in the first round of your fantasy draft, the last few weeks probably haven’t been what you were hoping for from him. After a breakout debut, CEH hasn’t found his way back to the end zone and has finished outside of the top-20 running backs in 2 out of 3 weeks. Do not despair. Edwards-Helaire has still averaged 20 touches per game in the last 3 weeks and seen a larger share of the running back touches each week. He’s also through the toughest part of his schedule and hasn’t finished lower than the RB26 in PPR scoring formats. This week he gets his easiest matchup to-date. The Raiders have allowed more fantasy points to the running back position than any team in the league and they rank 30th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. This week will be a great opportunity for a big game out of CEH. He should be worth his price tag in DFS formats and has top-5 RB upside this week in a great matchup. If you can find an impatient fantasy player who is upset by Edwards-Helaire’s start, I would recommend sending a trade offer. His value is about to go up.
RB James Robinson, JAX (Wk. 5: @Hou.): Most people had no idea who James Robinson was before he took the starting gig in Jacksonville, but he has definitely taken the job and run with it. He’s the RB6 for the season and has posted an impressive 40 receiving yards per game. This week he gets to square off with a Texans’ defense allowing the 4th-most RB points per game and ranking 29th in run defense DVOA. The Texans actually haven’t given up much receiving production to opposing backs, allowing just 3.3 catches (T-2nd fewest) and 25.5 receiving yards (6th-fewest) to the position per game, but a lot of that can be explained by the fact that Houston has mostly played from behind and their opponents have been able to lean on the run game. Houston’s opponents have been trailing on the scoreboard for just 24% of their offensive plays. This week the Texans are actually favored by 6, so if they get ahead, I’d expect Robinson to eclipse those receiving averages that Houston has been allowing to RBs. They’re also a bad enough run defense that Robinson will make some hay on the ground as well. He’s a locked-in RB2 this week.
WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Wk. 5 vs. NYG): The Cowboys have been one of the most prolific passing offenses in the league so far, and Lamb has been the clear #2 receiver in the target pecking order. There has been an obvious effort to get the ball into Amari Cooper’s hands this season as he’s averaged nearly 13 targets per game (on pace for 200(!) targets), but Lamb has been seeing a healthy 7 targets per game himself. There’s bound to be a week at some point where Michael Gallup gets the squeaky wheel treatment and the team forces him some targets, but Dallas throws so much I don’t think that will have much impact on Lamb when it happens. This week Dallas faces the Giants, who have been allowing the 13th-most points per game to WRs. The one functional part of their pass defense has been James Bradbury, who has limited Robert Woods and Allen Robinson each to less than 40 yards this season. This week Bradbury will be shadowing Amari Cooper. That should help get Lamb a little more work Sunday, and he should be a safe WR2/3 this week with Dallas’s implied total sitting at a robust 31.75 points.
WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (Wk. 5: @Sea.): Jefferson’s seems to have fully vanquished Bisi Johnson and taken over the #2 receiver role in Minnesota with his breakout performances over the last two weeks. Jefferson played mostly in the slot in college at LSU, so it seemed like early production wouldn’t be easy to come by in an offense that has 3+ receivers on the field for just 44% of their snaps, but over the last two weeks, Jefferson has made it clear he can thrive as a perimeter receiver. This passing game still runs through Adam Thielen, but this week the Vikings are going to have to be able to put up some points if they want to keep pace with the Seahawks explosive offense. Minnesota is a 7-point underdog this week, but still has an implied total of 25.25 points. I’d expect them to try to run the ball when they can to keep the ball out of Russell Wilson’s hands, and they may have some success there with box safety Jamal Adams sidelined, but there should be plenty of passing volume for Jefferson to be a safe WR3 with upside this week. No team has coughed up more fantasy points to opposing WRs than the Seahawks so far. He should be a bargain at his $5,500 DraftKings price tag.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Justin Herbert, LAC (Wk. 5: @NO): Herbert finally got the nod from the coach as the full-time starter with Tyrod Taylor recovered from his chest injury, and it would’ve been coaching malpractice if he hadn’t. Herbert has thrown for at least 290 yards every week and kept his team in every game he’s played. They’re 0-3 in Herbert’s starts, but are yet to lose by more than 1 score. New Orleans’ best cornerback Marshon Lattimore is questionable for this week, and this Saints’ defense has allowed multiple TD passes and at least 21 fantasy points to every QB they’ve faced so far. Herbert has shown himself to be a solid QB2 option, and he’ll have nice upside for more this week if the Saints are without Lattimore. As a TD underdog, Herbert should again be throwing a fair amount.
QB Joe Burrow, CIN (Wk. 5: @Bal.): Burrow’s matchup this week sounds daunting on paper, but the Ravens haven’t been a death sentence for QBs so far this season. Baltimore has allowed 275+ passing yards in 3 straight games including more than 300 to Dwayne Haskins last weekend. Burrow has topped 300 yards in each of the last 3 weeks, and the Ravens secondary is a bit banged up with Marcus Peters and Jimmy Smith both missing some practice time this week. It’s still a talented secondary, and Burrow will have an uphill battle to go over 300 for the 4th-straight week, but he’s not a bad QB2 option this week. The Bengals will likely have to throw often as a 13-point underdog.
RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (Wk. 5: @Cle.): Obviously most people with Taylor on their rosters are going to be starting him this week, but I wanted to single him out as someone who shouldn’t be a slam-dunk starer. We knew when Marlon Mack went down that Nyheim Hines was still going to be heavily involved in this offense, especially in any weeks where the Colts play from behind. What we didn’t know was how big a role Jordan Wilkins was going to play. Wilkins has had at least 9 carries in each of the last 3 games and has taken a chunk out of Taylor’s weekly ceiling. The rookie has still handled a sizable workload, but as we saw last week, if he doesn’t get in the end zone he’ll have a hard time finishing as a top-20 back for the week. Cleveland isn’t a great matchup for opposing backs. Ezekiel Elliott is the only back to reach 50 rushing yards against them. Several backs have had success catching the ball out of the backfield against the Browns, but Taylor has been targeted just 4 times in the last 3 weeks. You can’t count on passing game usage. I think Taylor projects as a flex option this week that needs to get in the end zone to return real value to your lineup.
RB Antonio Gibson, WAS (Wk. 5: vs. LAR): Gibson has been making the most of his opportunities each week, but at some point you’d like the see the Football Team give him more of them. Peyton Barber has been pushed to the bench, but JD McKissic continues to out-snap him each week. Gibson is averaging 16 PPR points per game over the last 3 weeks and has found the end zone in each game, but he’d have RB1 upside if he was unleashed in a workhorse role. The Rams have been a beatable run defense, ranking 28th in run defense DVOA, but it’s hard to consider Gibson an auto-start while playing just half the snaps. He should be a safe flex play this week, and his price tag of $5,000 on DraftKings makes him an interesting bargain option this week.
RB Josh Kelley, LAC (Wk. 5: @NO): Austin Ekeler’s trip to the IR should be good news for Josh Kelley’s fantasy outlook, but he fumbled in a crucial spot in each of the last two games and it’s opened the door for the now healthy Justin Jackson to work his way into the mix. Kelley played 30 snaps to Jackson’s 21 last week, and I’d expect a similar split going forward unless Kelley can stop fumbling and can separate himself from Jackson on the field. New Orleans has been one of the tougher run defenses in the league, ranking 4th in run defense DVOA, so Kelley will probably have to make things happen in the receiving game to have a strong week. The Saints have only allowed 31 receiving yards per game to opposing backs though. New Orleans is favored by a touchdown, so game script should keep the Chargers throwing a bit. I’d view Kelley as an upside RB3 this week despite a less than ideal matchup.
WR Laviska Shenault, JAX (Wk. 5: @Hou.): Shenault finally had the kind of week we’ve been looking for out of him last Sunday with 91 yards on 6 touches (5 receptions), and this week he faces a Houston defense that is fresh off of allowing Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson to combine for 12 catches and 217 yards. I’d like to see the Jaguars give Shenault more of a full-time role, and he still has a floor somewhere around 40-50 scrimmage yards and 8 or so PPR points, but I like his chances to post a ceiling week in this one. He should match up with the burnable Vernon Hargreaves for most of the game, and I love his upside as a WR3 this week.
WR Jerry Jeudy, DEN (Wk. 5: @NE): This doesn’t shape up as a great week for Jeudy, but volume alone could get him through to a nice fantasy week. Brett Rypien is likely to be under center again, and he won’t have much to work with outside of Jeudy. Noah Fant and KJ Hamler will be sidelined in this one, so that leaves Tim Patrick and probably DaeSean Hamilton as the other receiving options. It’s a little worrying that Jeudy was limited to just 4 targets in Rypien’s first start with the Broncos throwing 31 times (Jeudy averaged 8 targets per game in the first 3 weeks), but he did find the end zone and top 60 receiving yards. I’d expect Rypien to look his way more often in this one. Josh Jackson is a tough matchup in the slot where Jeudy plays 70% of his snaps, but the Pats have given up lines of 7-67-1 to Tyler Lockett and 6-84-1 to Hunter Renfrow this season. Jeudy should make for a nice WR3 in a week where there should be plenty of volume for him.
WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF (Wk. 5: vs. Mia.): Aiyuk could get Jimmy Garoppolo back this week at QB, and he faces a Miami defense that ranks just 28th in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 8th-most WR points per game so far. On the surface, it looks like a great matchup, but he may have to tangle with the best part of the Dolphins’ secondary in Xavien Howard. The 49ers only target their WRs on a league-low 39% of their pass attempts, and with Garoppolo and Mostert back this could be a game where they get ahead and lean on the run game. Howard was torched by DK Metcalf last week, so there is some hope for Aiyuk, but the limited volume makes me hesitant to rank him higher than Jeudy or Shenault in week 5.
WR Tee Higgins, CIN (Wk. 5: @Bal.): As I mentioned under Burrow above, the Ravens’ secondary is banged up this week and they haven’t been as dominant as they were a year ago. Higgins is working as a full-time WR in this offense, playing ahead of AJ Green, and the Ravens have ranked a pretty average 14th in pass defense DVOA. He isn’t a guy I would target in DFS lineups, but with the pass-happy game script the Bengals are likely to be dealing with, he should be a passable WR3 option. Baltimore has allowed the 20th-most WR points per game so far.
WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (Wk. 5: @Ten.): This game is up in the air at the moment thanks to the Titans’ coronavirus outbreak, and that probably doesn’t help Davis if they do in fact play. He played a lot last week with Cole Beasley battling through a foot injury and being limited to just 18 snaps. John Brown has also been a bit hobbled at practice this week with a calf injury. Having the game on Monday or Tuesday would give those guys a little extra time to get right and would hurt Davis’s opportunity. The rookie has shown he can perform when called upon, and Tennessee isn’t a pass defense to fear, allowing the 12th-most WR points per game. Buffalo is averaging over 330 passing yards per game, so Davis has some upside as a desperation WR3 even with everyone else healthy, but if Beasley or Brown will be limited or sit out, Davis should move up your rankings this week. If your league doesn’t allow you to designate replacement players ahead of time though, it’ll be tough to trust anyone in this game.
Rookies to Sit:
RB JK Dobbins, BAL (Wk. 5: vs. Cin.): Dobbins has been a victim of a crowded backfield so far this year, and I don’t see a lot of reasons why that will change in the immediate future. The Ravens have played in a few lopsided wins already, and still Dobbins has failed to top 43% of the snaps played or 7 touches in any game this season. The Bengals are another opponent that the Ravens should handle easily, and I know the RB pickings can be slim out there this week, but I’d stay away from Dobbins outside of the deepest of leagues this week. Cincy has allowed the 12th-most RB points per game on the year, but that total is split 3 ways for Baltimore.
RB Cam Akers, LAR (Wk. 5: @Was.): Akers is practicing as of Thursday, but his status for Sunday’s game remains in doubt. If he plays, I think you have to wait a week to see how he is re-integrated into the backfield. The Rams look to be a true committee with no clear lead option, and that’s a situation you typically want to avoid in fantasy. Washington has allowed the 10th-fewest RB fantasy points per game on the year, and Akers likely won’t see enough work to post a big week this Sunday. Like with Dobbins, those RB points are split three ways. I wouldn’t consider him outside of a desperation scenario.
RB Zack Moss, BUF (Wk. 5: @Ten.): It looks like Moss will be ready to return to action this week, assuming the Bills still have a game to play, but I would take a wait-and-see approach before putting him back in your lineup. If the Bills and Titans play at all, it won’t be until Monday or Tuesday, and that happens only if there are no more positive COVID tests for Tennessee. If your league doesn’t allow you to designate a replacement player prior to this week’s games, I wouldn’t even consider Moss. He may return to his red zone role and faces a defense that has allowed the 9th-most RB points per game so far, but Devin Singletary performed well as the workhorse back over the last two weeks. There’s no guarantee that we go right back to the same workload split we were seeing before Moss’s injury, and Moss wasn’t exactly lighting up the fantasy box scores before he got hurt – he averaged 7.7 PPR points per game the first two weeks. I would like to see how it plays out before re-inserting Moss into any lineups, especially considering the COVID uncertainty surrounding this game.
RB Anthony McFarland, PIT (Wk. 5: vs. Phi.): McFarland saw his first real game action in week 3 and flashed the kind of speed that the Steelers coveted him for, tallying 42 yards on 6 carries and a 7-yard reception. That performance came against the Texans though, and they rank just 29th in run defense DVOA. The Eagles rank a passable 15th in that stat, but they were 3rd in 2019 and only Darrell Henderson has made it to 60 scrimmage yards against Philly so far this season. I know it’s a dire week at running back but counting on McFarland to see more work than he did in week 3 is a fool’s errand. This is still James Conner’s backfield.
WR Henry Ruggs, LV (Wk. 5: @KC): Ruggs seems likely to return this week while Bryan Edwards likely will remain sidelined, but this is not a great spot for him to have a breakout game. The Chiefs have allowed the fewest WR points per game and rank 1st in pass defense DVOA. Ruggs has the kind of obscene speed that can help him post a useful fantasy week in 1 play, but the Raiders don’t involve the receivers enough in their passing attack to make you feel good about starting Ruggs this week. The Raiders throw just 40.1% of their passing targets in the direction of their wideouts. Only the 49ers WRs have a lower target share.
WR John Hightower, PHI (Wk. 5: @Pit.): Hightower has led the Eagles in WR snaps each of the past two weeks with the rest of the position group banged up, but it’s led to just 4 catches and 41 yards. As of Thursday, Alshon Jeffrey isn’t practicing, DeSean Jackson was a limited participant, and JJ Arcega-Whiteside was practicing in full. Even if all 3 missed this game, I would tell you not to play Hightower against the Steelers. Pittsburgh ranks 8th in pass defense DVOA. If D-Jax plays, Hightower would likely see a significant drop in snap share.
WR Chase Claypool, PIT (Wk. 5: vs. Phi.): With Diontae Johnson practicing in full ahead of this week’s game, Claypool may have missed his window to shine when the Tennessee game was pushed back. He is likely to go back to playing limited snaps sharing the WR3 role with James Washington on Sunday. The Steelers have tried to get him involved in the game-plan each week, and he did record an 80-yard touchdown in week 2 against Denver, but Philly has allowed just one pass play of 40+ yards so far this year. Claypool is no more than a low-volume TD dart throw against an opponent that has allowed just 2 receiving TDs to opposing WRs thus far.
WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, CLE (Wk. 5: vs. Ind.): With KhaDarel Hodge sidelined in week 4 due to a hamstring injury, it was Peoples-Jones who slid into the WR3 role for the Browns, playing 44% of the offensive snaps. He wasn’t targeted in the game, but you might chalk that up to the Browns playing with a large lead for much of the day (Cleveland led by multiple scores for all but one offensive play in the last 2 and half quarters of the game). Hodge was placed on injured reserve for at least the next few weeks, but I wouldn’t view DPJ as a guy to add even in deeper leagues right now. Hodge was targeted just 6 times in the first 3 weeks of the season in this same role, and no team plays a smaller share of their snaps with 3+ WRs on the field than the Browns (36%). Cleveland also just called up Taywan Taylor from their practice squad, and he may steal some snaps from DPJ as well. Taylor caught 37 passes for Tennessee just two seasons ago and was a favorite of fantasy twitter. Add in the fact that Cleveland’s opponent this week, the Colts, rank 2nd in pass defense DVOA and it’s an easy call to leave Peoples-Jones on the waiver wire this week.
TE Harrison Bryant, CLE (Wk. 5: vs. Ind.): Bryant has continued to see his snap share and fantasy output increase each and every week this season, and as mentioned with Peoples-Jones, the Browns don’t have 3+ receivers on the field very often. This all bodes well for Bryant moving forward, but there are a couple of factors that don’t: the looming return of David Njoku and a matchup this week with the Colts. Njoku has been designated to return from injured reserve and could even be ready to suit up in week 5. Even if he doesn’t return this week, The Colts have allowed the fewest TE points per game in the league so far and have faced off with Chris Herndon, Kyle Rudolph, Jimmy Graham, and Tyler Eifert. Njoku’s return would probably at least cut Bryant’s snaps in half, and if Njoku is out one more week even 5 PPR points out of the rookie TE would be considered a successful week in this matchup.
TE Adam Trautman, NO (Wk. 5: vs. LAC): Trautman was a popular sleeper pick for last week as Jared Cook was sidelined by a groin injury, but things didn’t exactly work out in his favor against the Lions. Josh Hill served as the TE1, and Trautman wasn’t even targeted once. He was even out-snapped by another tight end, Garrett Griffin, who has one career reception that came in 2017. Even if Cook sits again this week, you can likely find more upside elsewhere. The Chargers have allowed the 10th-most TE points per game on the season, but I wouldn’t be confident that Trautman can capitalize on the matchup.
Rookies on Byes in Week 5: RB D’Andre Swift, DET, RB AJ Dillon, GB, WR Quintez Cephus, DET
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn, TB (Wk. 5: @Chi.): Vaughn got his first real action of the season in week 4, and he made the most of it, scoring a late touchdown and finishing with 10.6 PPR points on just 19 snaps. The Bucs’ offense is very banged up heading into this week’s game in Chicago, and that should benefit Vaughn. LeSean McCoy has been ruled out, Leonard Fournette is doubtful, and a number of pass-catchers will be out as well for this game. Ronald Jones should handle the bulk of the rushing work, but he has been ineffective as a receiver out of the backfield. Jones has 12 catches out of 18 targets for just 57 yards (3.2 yards per target). The Bears haven’t given up a lot of receiving production to opposing backs thus far (4.5 receptions and 33.5 receiving yards per game), but with the limited weapons, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Vaughn log 5+ targets and a handful of carries. If you’re hamstrung at running back in a deep PPR league, he’s a viable fill-in this week, and he costs just $1,000 on DraftKings for the Thursday night showdown slate. A strong performance here could open up more opportunities for him in the weeks to come.
RB DeeJay Dallas, SEA (Wk. 5: vs. Min.): Dallas saw his first action of the season in week 4 with Carlos Hyde sidelined, and it looks like Hyde will be out again this week. Dallas split backup work with Travis Homer, but he did manage to put up 23 yards on 4 touches. He won’t be a worthwhile play in any formats this week, but he is worth monitoring and possibly even stashing in deeper dynasty formats. Chris Carson has been battling a number of injuries and Dallas would be forced into a bigger role if anything happens to Carson.
WR Darnell Mooney, CHI (Wk. 5: vs. TB): Mooney is listed as questionable for this game, but if he plays, he’s going to be an intriguing option in deep leagues and DFS formats. The changing of the guard at QB in Chicago looks like it will be a good thing for Mooney. He was targeted 8 times by Mitch Trubisky in 2+ games. He was targeted 9 times by Nick Foles in week 4. This week the Bears face a tough matchup against a Bucs’ defense that ranks 4th in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 12th-fewest WR points per game, but their best corner Carlton Davis will likely be shadowing Allen Robinson. Davis has regularly been used to shadow big-bodied #1 WRs like Robinson and has had success, limiting Michael Thomas in week 1 (3 catches for 17 yards), and limiting De’Andre Hopkins late last year (5 for 23). Robinson is still going to command targets, but Mooney will have a much more favorable matchup and should see plenty of work himself. If Mooney doesn’t play, this would then apply to Anthony Miller. Mooney could be a passable WR3 in deeper leagues this week and is a sneaky DFS option as well if he plays.
WR Tyler Johnson, TB (Wk. 5: @Chi.): Johnson has quietly been on the field for over 30% of the Bucs snaps each of the last two weeks. It hasn’t led to any targets, but the Bucs are quickly running out of weapons ahead of the rookie. With Chris Godwin and Justin Watson already ruled out for this week, and Mike Evans a true game time-decision, Johnson seems likely to play a large number of snaps Thursday night. Brady is bound to look his way at least a few times in this one. If Evans is out, the group of weapons will consist of Scotty Miller, Gronk, Ronald Jones, Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Cameron Brate, and Johnson. The Bears’ defense has been solid against the pass (they allow the 3rd-fewest WR points per game), but you could do worse than Johnson at his minuscule $200 price tag in the Thursday showdown slate on DraftKings.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and keep an eye out for updates on the Bills/Titans game. You don’t want to leave an inactive player in your lineup. Feel free to hit me up on twitter if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.
Please wait...
