It's time to look forward to the next several weeks and pick out some busts. These are guys that all have very tough schedules coming up, and are top 15 at their position through 5 weeks. My suggestion to you is to get the trade discussion going in your league and try to unload some of these players to your league mates who may lack the foresight that you do.
Ryan Tannehill, QB-TEN – On the season, Ryan Tannehill has the 8th most points per game, turning in his best performance just last night. Tannehill has had some easy matchups, so far all of his games have come against teams that are giving up top 12 points to opposing QBs. This bust has a lot to do with his matchups coming up, but I also want to point out that he is trailing behind many stat categories that he was doing very well last season. So far, his completion percentage, yards per attempt, yards per completion, and QB rating are all lower than last year’s numbers. Now, he has 6 straight games coming up against teams that are all very tough against opposing QBs. Five of those six teams are giving up the 10th fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs or better. The worst team there is the Steelers, haven’t given up a 20 point game to opposing QBs so far this season, keeping all QBs below 300 yards and giving up no more than 2 TDs in each game. Yes, you’ve accidentally eaten the bye week on Tannehill at this point, but it’s time to find someone with better matchups. Sell high on Tannehill while you can this week.
Raheem Mostert, RB-SF – Mostert has been in and out of the lineup this season, just like in years past. Through his 3 games, Mostert is the 6th best RB by points per game, averaging 18.1 points in his 3 games this year. The 49ers offense is falling apart and has not had any consistent QB play this season. He’s also trending down in points, though he hasn’t been a total disappointment just yet. However, his matchups coming up are going to get much tougher. Games against the Rams, Seahawks, and Patriots will be very tough to rack up big numbers. His best matchup coming up is against the Packers, but that game is on a Thursday night and I don’t like counting on anything that might happen on a Thursday in the NFL. Mostert still has a bye week coming up as well, so dump him for some value now before he starts slumping.
Tyler Lockett, WR-SEA – Tyler Locket has the 14th most points per game among WRs this year, but that is boosted by his 3 TD week 3 game. Aside from that week, he has not reached 100 yards in a game. Lockett’s targets are falling - only 9 across the last 2 games after having at least 8 in each of the first 3 games. DK Metcalf is really starting to explode in the Seattle passing game and has clearly taken over as the number 1 target on the offense. Coming up, the Seahawks play Arizona twice, San Francisco and the Rams, all of whom are top 10 in locking down opposing WRs. Their best matchup comes against the Bills, who are still in the top half of the league. As with all of these suggestions, these players definitely have value, but their top-notch play is going to disappear. Trade Lockett away now while he’s considered a top 15 receiver. His bye week is coming, so maybe you can eat the bye week as a way to improve his trade value and get people to forget about DK’s recent offensive explosion.
Tyler Higbee, TE-LAR – Higbee is the 11th TE in points per game, tied with Hunter Henry. Given the two, I’d much rather roll with Henry based on Highbee’s lower production in the last 3 weeks. Excluding his week 2 explosion of 3 TDs, Higbee hasn’t scored OR broken the 40-yard mark this year. He has only 17 targets through 5 games, just not enough volume to start him on a weekly basis over a generic replacement streaming option. His upcoming matchups are also quite rough. Over the next 8 weeks, only his matchup against the Bears in Week 7 comes against a team giving up top 10 points to opposing TEs. The rest of his matchups are far tougher, and let’s be honest, an 8-week stretch is far too long to hold out for a player to get better. Unloading Higbee now won’t likely net you too much value, but it’s a good idea to start looking for streaming options at TE and maybe try unloading him if he does put up a good game in Week 7.
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