Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring unless otherwise noted.

7 Games of 60+ Rushing Yards

It’s hard to pick just one stat to lead with for Lamar Jackson, so let’s go with the one that nobody else has done in league history. Jackson is now the first QB in the NFL to have 60+ rush yards in 7 straight starts, as he continues his march towards Michael Vick’s single season record. Jackson added 86 yards on just 9 carries on Sunday. He’s now on pace for 1,260 rush yards and at this rate will easily break the record before Christmas. Jackson is amazingly efficient and playing so well for his team. His fantasy totals are gaudy, but don’t exactly feel like they would be if you look at just his passing stats. Another 4 passing TDs yesterday brought his season total to 19 – congrats to you preseason bettors, his Vegas over/under was just 15. He has had over 30 pass attempts just 4 times this season (2 of them were his team’s losses), and is just magnificent this year, especially for fantasy. He has zero fumbles, something that only Dak Prescott, Kyler Murray and Mason Rudolph can claim, though none of them run the ball like Lamar.

0.36 More Fantasy Points Than Lamar Jackson

Only one player in the NFL had more fantasy points than Lamar Jackson through Sunday, and it was Josh Allen, as he dismantled the Dolphins. The difference between the two is really that Allen had a rushing TD, his 7^th on the season, which leads all QBs and is tied for 6^th among all players in the NFL. Allen is showing plenty of growth in his second season. Last year he started 11 games, and this year he has 10 under his belt and he already has more pass yards, more pass TDs and fewer INTs. His completion rate has improved significantly and he is the QB6 on the season. Allen hasn’t thrown a pick in the last 5 straight games. He has played very well and just might hold on to make the playoffs. With a solid QB and a good defense, they might even be able to win a game there.

3 TDs in 3 Straight Starts

I don’t mean to only talk about QBs so far, but I would be remiss if I did not gush a little about the play of Dak Prescott, who has quietly been awesome this year. Unfortunately, his team does not beat good teams, but damn he’s played well against everyone since New Orleans in Week 4. Over the last 3 weeks, Prescott has 9 passing TDs and 1,098 passing yards over that time – he now leads the league with 3,221 passing yards. Prescott has reduced the frequency that he runs, but he’s gaining a lot more per run on the ground this year, up to 5.8 yards per carry, the second highest total of his career. These smarts also help keep him on the field – he hasn’t missed a start in his 4 seasons. So, Dak sits as the QB3 in fantasy football and the 4^th player overall. He’s having a great season and would be in the MVP talk if it wasn’t for the couple of QBs ahead of him, who are just a little bit better and winning a few more games. That being said, don’t count him out – there’s still lots of football left to play.

19.10 Points Without a Touchdown

OK, enough about the QBs, let’s dive into the RBs, who admittedly, had a down week. Leading the pack was Mark Ingram, who is the only RB to break the 20-point barrier as of Sunday in Week 11. He found the end zone twice through the air and was the week’s RB1, despite only gaining 85 yards from scrimmage. The guy who did rack up gaudy totals was, of course, Christian McCaffrey, who added another 191 yards from scrimmage on 25 touches. McCaffrey has 1,576 yards from scrimmage on the season, and he’s still on pace to just squeak by the single-season record of 2,510. Considering he put up another 19 points without finding the end zone, he’s clearly the fantasy MVP outside of QBs. He has 32 more fantasy points than the 2^nd place team and is beating the RB8, the aforementioned Mark Ingram, by over 100 points on the season.

94 Receptions in 10 Games

Congrats to Michael Thomas, who continues to be an absolute beast for Drew Brees and the Saints. Thomas now has 94 receptions through 10 games, obviously a league lead, but also a milestone that no one else in league history has reached. He’s leading the league this year with 1,141 receiving yards and is on pace for 150 receptions on the season, which would break Marvin Harrison’s record of 143. Heck, Thomas is already 5^th on that list with his 125-catch effort last season, a number he’s certain to break soon. Thomas now has 11 or more targets in all but 2 games this season, and has done the majority of his damage without Brees under center. Yesterday’s effort of 114 receiving yards exactly matches his 114 yards per game average this season. I’m all for players who like to express themselves, as we have seen at WR in the last few years, but there’s something awesome about the quiet dominance we get from guys like Michael Thomas, Julio Jones and Deandre Hopkins.

Time, it does indeed fly by!

Once we get past this set of games, we will be past the third quarter of the season. We are getting into crunch time. Plus we still have some teams on a bye which means every game in the Confidence Pool counts.

So let’s keep the momentum moving!

Week 12 – HERE WE GO!!!!!!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN ALL CAPS)

14 – CLEVELAND over Miami – It’s been a disappointing season off of Lake Erie, but at least they get a home game against the Dolphins.

13 – NEW ORLEANS over Carolina – I saw a show talking about how important this game was for the Panthers…as if they hadn’t already been written out of this season.

12 – BUFFALO over Denver – The battle of the Allens in Orchard Park shouldn’t be a close one.

11 – Oakland over NEW YORK JETS – With a trip to KC next week, people have called this a trap game for the Raiders. Not likely! My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that THE RAIDERS WILL OVERTAKE THE CHIEFS AND WIN THE AFC WEST!

10 – NEW ENGLAND over Dallas – Home games against “good” teams are still easy pickings for the Patriots.

9 – TENNESSEE over Jacksonville – The Titans are slowly creeping up as a playoff contender.

8 – HOUSTON over Indianapolis – The week kicks off with a game that could go a long way in deciding the AFC South. Lucky for the Texans this game is in Houston.

7 – Baltimore over LOS ANGELES RAMS – These aren’t your Rams of 2018 – which means they can’t hang with the Ravens of 2019.

6 – ATLANTA over Tampa Bay – I’ve decided to pick the Falcons to win again…which means that they will probably fall short.

5 – Green Bay over SAN FRANCISCO – The 9ers are good, but I think they will get a bit of a rude awakening the way the Packers have been playing.

4 – Detroit over WASHINGTON – It is me or does it feel like the Lions are the best 3 win team in recent memory?

3 – CHICAGO over New York Giants – If the Giants end up winning this one, I wouldn’t be surprised.

2 – PHILADELPHIA – Seattle – Thoughts of a home loss to the Patriots should still be fresh in the minds of the Eagles.

1 – CINCINNATI over Pittsburgh – After an impressive showing in Oakland last wee, I have a hunch that the Bengals will finally get that first win at home this week.

We have arrived at the Holiday Season.

Thanksgiving is upon us – a time to spend with family an reflect on the blessings that you have received and offer the appropriate thanks!

In this case, we are thankful for getting THREE football games on a Thursday! Yay football!

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

Week 13 – HERE WE GO!!!!!!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN ALL CAPS)

16 – CAROLINA over Washington – Christian McCaffrey has had a stretch of good games, but a home game against the Redskins should be enough for a great game! My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that McCaffrey will have 100 yards rushing and 100 yards receiving.

15 – KANSAS CITY over Oakland – Simply put, the Raiders were exposed as a team that yet ready for a division win last week.

14 – DETROIT over Chicago – The Bears were able to hold on and beat the Giants at home last week…not a exactly a win that would help regain confidence in the Monsters of the Midway.

13 – DALLAS over Buffalo – If the Bills want to show they are for real they will need to win this national game…I just don’t see it happening.

12 – BALTIMORE over San Francisco – Here’s an out on a limb statement…the Ravens are good…really good!

11 – Philadelphia over MIAMI – Philly could use a game against the Dolphins to help them bounce back for the home stretch of the NFC East race.

10 – Green Bay over NEW YORK GIANTS – I have a strong feeling that Aaron Rodgers will really want to show that last week’s performance was a fluke.

9 – New Orleans over ATLANTA – I give up correctly predicting the Falcons!

8 – PITTSBURGH over Cleveland – Can’t say I expected to talk about the Steelers solidifying their playoff chances a month or two ago.

7 – INDIANAPOLIS over Tennessee – The Titans may be the least talked about team still fighting for a playoff spot. The Colts should be able to show there isn’t much to talk about.

6 – HOUSTON over New England – The Patriots are playing a good team on the road…so they have no chance!

5 – SEATTLE over Minnesota – The week will end on a strong note with the Seahawks taking this potential playoff preview.

4 – JACKSONVILLE over Tampa Bay – Just remember when watching this game, these are the two BEST teams in Florida!

3 – New York Jets over CINCINNATI – The Jets have been looking good lately, but it’s still hard to have a lot of confidence in them.

2 – ARIZONA over Los Angeles Rams – What happened to the Rams?

1 – DENVER over Los Angeles Chargers – Congrats Denver! You get a big divisional win, and hurt you’re draft stock in the process!

Welcome to the Fantasy Football Playoff Season!

For more than 50% of players, this means that your season is…well…over! Well that’s kind of a bummer!

Have no fear though, the Confidence Pool has no playoffs! Even if you are sitting in the bottom of your league long standings (which you shouldn’t be if you have been following along here!) you still have a chance at a payout every week!

Week 14 – HERE WE GO!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

16 – MINNESOTA over Detroit – Hopefully, for the Lions 2020 hopes, this will be the nail in the coffin that puts Matthew Stafford on the IR.

15 – PHILADELPHIA over New York Giants – Eli’s back! Should help Saquon be Saquon again…but it won’t be enough in Philly.

14 – GREEN BAY over Washington – It’s been a while since we have seen a big yardage day from Aaron Rodgers. So, my BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that AARON RODGERS WILL THROW FOR AT LEAST 400 YARDS THIS WEEK.

13 – HOUSTON over Denver – The Texans need to win to keep pace with the Colts and Titans. The Broncos need to focus on getting a high draft pick.

12 – NEW YORK JETS over Miami – It was only a month ago when the Dolphins beat the Jets for their first win, but this seems like a different Jets team.

11 –Pittsburgh over ARIZONA –This Steelers team seems like a good candidate for a Disney movie the way they still win after losing so much.

10 – OAKLAND over Tennessee – The Raiders need this game and they know it. Look for Derek Carr to bounce back in a big way.

9 – Dallas over CHICAGO – Can’t play the Lions every week, Bears!

8 – CLEVELAND over Cincinnati – Baker is hurt for the Browns but, I means, they’re playing the Bengals.

7 – ATLANTA over Carolina – If you listened to the DrinkFive podcast this week, you know my feelings on picking Falcons games.

6 – TAMPA BAY over Indianapolis – We’ll make this our Hunch of the Week.'

5 – Seattle over LOS ANGELES RAMS – These two teams have basically flipped roles from where they were last year.

4 – Kansas City over NEW ENGLAND – Remember last year’s AFC Championship game? So do the Chiefs!

3 – JACKSONVILLE over Los Angeles Chargers – This game will happen. Maybe it will be exciting – who knows?

2 – San Francisco over NEW ORLEANS – Is it me, or do the Saints lack the dominance factor when they play in the Dome lately?

1 – BUFFALO over Baltimore – This should be a good one and I think the Bills can find a way to pull out the upset.