Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’re down to just 4 weeks left of the fantasy regular season, so it’s crunch time if you’re not where you want to be in the standings. Week 10 brings SIX bye weeks (HOU, PHI, WAS, NE, DEN, JAX), so there are probably plenty of you out there in need of bye week fill-ins. Week 9 was a big one for the rookies, with David Montgomery, Josh Jacobs, DK Metcalf, Devin Singletary and Kyler Murray all posting banner weeks. Parris Campbell was on his way to a breakout game before suffering another significant injury. It’s a bummer for him since he was in line for extended work with TY Hilton sidelined, but there are plenty of other rookies who could potentially help moving forward. Let’s talk about what to expect in week 10…

Rookies to Start:

QB Kyler Murray, ARI (Wk. 10: @TB): It took a late long TD to get there, but Kyler became the first QB all year to top 20 fantasy points against the 49ers last week. He’s been better at home than on the road, but the Bucs pass defense has been a mess this year. They’ve allowed the 4^th-most QB points per game on the year and rank 26^th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA stat. With Wentz, Watson and Brady all on byes this week, Murray should have no trouble finishing as a top-10 QB in a great matchup.

RB Josh Jacobs, OAK (Wk. 10: vs. LAC): If you have Jacobs on your roster, he should be in your lineup this week. He’s topped 120 rushing yards in 3 of his last 4 games and faces a Chargers defense that ranks 25^th in run defense DVOA and allows the 10^th-most points to the position. The Chargers have been playing well as of late and could get out to an early lead, but Vegas doesn’t expect that to happen with LA favored by just 1 point. You should trust Jacobs to perform once again.

RB David Montgomery, CHI (Wk. 10: vs. Det.): It was only a couple weeks ago that Montgomery ran for just 6 yards on 3 carries and Matt Nagy had to tell the world he isn’t an idiot. All that’s happened since then is back-to-back RB7 finishes for Monty. The Bears may feel like a dumpster fire at this point, but it hasn’t affected Montgomery. This week he gets to face the defense that is allowing the most fantasy points per game to the position. The Lions have had more trouble with pass-catching backs than pure runners, but the Bears seem to finally be committed to giving Monty the ball. He should be a solid RB2 this week.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Daniel Jones, NYG (Wk. 10: @NYJ): After allowing 6 passing scores total in their first 6 games of the year the Jets have given up 6 more in just the last 2 weeks and over 275 yards passing in each game to Gardner Minshew and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Jones has proven to be turnover prone, but with the wheels coming off for the Jets he should be able to post a nice day. The Jets rank just 25^th in pass defense DVOA and haven’t been able to generate much of a pass rush since shipping Leonard Williams to the G-Men. I’d expect Jones to be a solid QB2 this week who could push for a top-12 week with so many players on byes.

RB Devin Singletary, BUF (Wk. 10: @Cle.): Week 9 felt like a turning point for Singletary. It was the first time all year that he out-snapped Frank Gore in a game that the Bills played mostly from ahead. He had played big snaps in week 1 when they trailed the Jets all game, and again in week 8 in the loss to the Eagles, but the Bills never trailed in week 10 and Singletary saw the lion’s share of the work. He out-snapped Gore 41-21, and out-touched him 23-11. He had as many carries in week 10 as he did in the other 4 games he suited up for combined. The Bills are somehow actually underdogs this week in Cleveland, but that may play more into Singletary’s favor as the primary pass-catching back. The Browns allow the 9^th-most RB points per game, and Singletary has scored double-digit PPR points in every game he’s played. I’d try to find a way to get him in your lineup this week if you can.

RB Ty Johnson, DET (Wk. 10: @Chi.): Despite their recent struggles, the Bears are still considered to be a formidable defense, but they’ve given up the 8^th-most fantasy points per game to opposing backs. Johnson’s playing time jumped to 62% of the offensive snaps with Tra Carson out last week, and I’d expect that sort of workload to continue. Johnson hasn’t reached 30 yards rushing in any game since the Kerryon injury, but the Bears allow more receptions per game to the position than every team but the Texans. JD McKissic will mix in a bit, but Johnson seems likely to see 15+ touches in this game and that should put him in play as a PPR flex option.

WR Marquise Brown, BAL (Wk. 10: @Cin.): Brown looked to be over his hamstring injury on Sunday, posting 3 catches for 48 yards against the Patriots. That isn’t exactly a useful fantasy line, but it came against one of the best pass defenses in the league. This week he faces off with one of the worst. There is a real possibility that the Ravens throw fewer than the 23 passes they threw last week if this game gets out of hand, but Brown has a reasonable shot to do some damage before it gets lopsided. The Bengals allow the 3^rd-most pass plays per game of 20+ yards and they rank 30^th in pass defense DVOA. With 6 teams on byes this week, Brown is a reasonable WR3 play and upside DFS option.

TE TJ Hockenson, DET (Wk. 10: @Chi.): It’s becoming a repetitive weekly refrain with Hockenson…he’s in play as a low-end TE1 option pretty much every week due to the lack of depth at the position. To illustrate that point, Will Dissly is still a top-10 scorer at the position on the year despite not playing a game since week 5. Hockenson posted his best yardage total since week 1 last Sunday against the Raiders, and it feels like the Lions have been making a concerted effort to get him more involved. This week he faces a Bears’ defense that allows the 4^th-most points per game to the position. The low floor we’ve seen makes TJ a less than appealing option, but it’s brutal out there if you’re looking for a fill-in and Hockenson does offer nice upside this week.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Ryan Finley, CIN (Wk. 10: vs. Bal.): You probably don’t need me to tell you to sit Finley this week, but here I am doing it anyway. Patrick Mahomes is the only QB to tally more than 1 touchdown against the Ravens all year, and I really don’t expect Finley to be the second, especially with the news Thursday that he won’t have AJ Green back for this one. He’s worth monitoring in superflex and 2-QB leagues, maybe even a stash in deeper ones, but putting him in the lineup this week would be asking for trouble even with 6 teams on bye.

RB Darrell Henderson, LAR (Wk. 10: @Pit.): Malcolm Brown is trending in the right direction to return for the Rams this week, and that is likely to push Henderson down to the RB3 role on his own team. The Rams are favored by 3.5 points this week, so it doesn’t exactly shape up to be a blowout where the backups will get extended run. I’d stay far away from Henderson this week unless it becomes clear that Brown isn’t playing. Even in that scenario you’d have to be desperate to consider Henderson. He’d still be looking at a very limited workload against a defense that allows the 7^th-fewest RB points per game.

RB Alexander Mattison, MIN (Wk. 10: @Dal.): Once again Mattison reminded us that he carries a very low floor in weeks that the Vikings don’t play from ahead. Mattison carried the ball just 3 times last Sunday for in the loss to the Chiefs and the Vikings are a 3-point underdog in Jerry World this weekend. Mattison will probably get a handful of carries, but I wouldn’t expect a usable fantasy game unless the Vikings somehow run away with this one.

RB Tony Pollard, DAL (Wk. 10: vs. Min.): A comfortable win over the Giants got Pollard just 15 snaps, 3 carries and 3 targets. I wouldn’t expect things to be nearly as comfortable this week against the Vikings. Pollard is worth taking a shot on in matchups where the Cowboys are expected to win in a romp, but when they aren’t there isn’t much reason to consider him unless Zeke isn’t healthy.

RB Justice Hill, BAL (Wk. 10: @Cin.): I keep waiting for Hill to get more opportunity in this offense and it may happen at some point, but I’m not willing to roll the dice that it will be this week. Hill did put up 31 rushing yards in the first meeting with Cincy in week 6, and the Ravens are comfortable road favorites in this game, but in the 3 games this year that Baltimore has won by double-digits Hill has seen a total of 10 carries and 1 target. It has been Gus Edwards getting the extra carries and not Hill. You could throw a dart at Hill this week in DFS tournaments, but I wouldn’t expect much from him even if the Ravens win in a rout.

RB Myles Gaskin, MIA (Wk. 10: @Ind.): Don’t fall into the trap on Gaskin as a potential sleeper down the stretch. Gaskin is likely to be active for the first time all year this week with Mark Walton suspended, but the Dolphins have had just 2 double-digit PPR scoring performances from a running back all year. Two of the four games Walton will miss are against teams in the top 8 at limiting RB points, including this week’s opponent the Colts. Gaskin would be a dicey option if it were clear he was going to be the lead back, but he’s likely to split work with Kalen Ballage. Let someone else chase the opportunity here.

WR DK Metcalf, SEA (Wk. 10: @SF): The matchup this week is less than ideal for Metcalf squaring off against the team that allows the 6^th-fewest WR points per game and ranks 1^st in pass defense DVOA. The 49ers showed some cracks against Arizona last week and Russell Wilson has proven himself to be a magician all season, but the Niners been a different animal at home allowing an average of 144 passing yards per game and a 2:6 TD-to-INT ratio in 3 games at Levi’s Stadium. Metcalf posted his best PPR game of the season last weekend with 25 points, but I wouldn’t expect anything near a repeat performance. I don’t expect Josh Godon to take a big chunk out of DK’s workload in his Seahawks’ debut, but he adds another layer of uncertainty to the mix. The tough matchup doesn’t render Metcalf completely unplayable this week with so many byes, but I’d lean against it if you have other reasonable options.

WR Hunter Renfrow, OAK (Wk. 10: vs. LAC): Renfrow posted his 2 best games of the year in the last 2 weeks, with totals of 10-142-2 on 11 targets. It’s exciting to see him get more involved in the offense and make plays, but for the year he still has just 2 games with more than 5 targets and just 2 catches of longer than 12 yards. He needs volume to get by. The Chargers allow the 8^th-fewest WR points per game and have allowed just 4 WR touchdowns in their past 7 games. You could use Renfrow as a flex in deeper PPR leagues if you really need a fill-in, but I’d probably avoid him anywhere else.

WR Deebo Samuel, SF (Wk. 10: vs. Sea.): You could do worse than Samuel this week, but he remains no higher than 3^rd in the target pecking order of a passing attack that throws the ball less than any other team in the league. He seems to have solidly established himself as the WR2 behind Emmanuel Sanders and is playing close to 70% of the snaps, but he’s only topped 44 yards in a game once this season. The Seahawks rank just 22^nd in run defense DVOA, so the 49ers would be wise to stick to what they do best and run the ball to keep it away from Russell Wilson as much as possible, and that’s going to affect the upside Samuel has. If you think 3-4 catches for 40-50 yards is going to help you win this week, Samuel should be able to produce somewhere in that ballpark. I’d look for someone with more upside in most leagues.

WR Olabisi Johnson, MIN (Wk. 10: @Dal.): Adam Thielen looks to be back on the shelf this week, which should get Bisi back into the mix, but the Cowboys have been solid against opposing WRs. They allow the 5^th-fewest WR points per game and have allowed multiple wide receivers to reach 50 yards in the same game just twice all year. Stefon Diggs should be the clear lead option this week, so I’d look to Johnson to finish in the 30-40 yard range. I’d look for better options if I were considering Bisi.

WR Mecole Hardman, KC (Wk. 10: @Ten.): Hardman should get Mahomes back at QB this week which should give him a better chance at maximizing his big play opportunities, but with the whole WR group healthy he’s played just 20 snaps total in the last 2 weeks. There’s still that weekly chance of a home run play, but it’s not something to take a shot on outside of a DFS tournament.

WRs KeeSean Johnson & Andy Isabella, ARI (Wk. 10: @TB): Each of these guys found the end zone last week against the 49ers, but I wouldn’t count on them doing it again even in a great matchup. The Bucs allow the most WR points per game, and rank just 26^th in pass defense DVOA, but the duo combined for just 38 snaps and 4 targets last week. That just isn’t enough volume to count on for fantasy production. Kliff Kingsbury has already said Isabella isn’t going to see a spike in playing time as a result of his 88-yard TD, and the team is expected to use David Johnson lined up out wide quite a bit this week with Kenyan Drake involved. These guys are best left on your bench.

WR Miles Boykin, BAL (Wk. 10: @Cin.): You probably don’t need much explanation here. If Boykin’s season totals were all put up last week, he still would’ve been just the WR3 for the week. I love his talent, but the opportunity just hasn’t been there for Boykin so far this year.

TE Foster Moreau, OAK (Wk. 10: vs. LAC): As Darren Waller has drawn more attention, Moreau has made a habit of getting in the end zone. He’s scored 3 TDs in the last 5 weeks, but if you throw out the TDs he has just 4 catches for 37 yards over the last 3 weeks. He needs to find the end zone to be useful for your team, and the Chargers haven’t let a tight end score all year. If any Raider breaks that streak this week I’d expect it to be Waller.

TE Dawson Knox, BUF (Wk. 10: @Cle.): Knox’s playing time rebounded in week 9 as he was back up to a 76% snap share, but he hasn’t posted a useful fantasy day since week 4 and has just 2 useful games all year. The Browns do allow the 11^th-most points to the position, so there is some appeal as a DFS dart throw hoping for a touchdown, but that feels like wishful thinking at this point.

Rookies on Byes: QB Gardner Minshew, JAX, QB Dwayne Haskins, WAS, RB Miles Sanders, PHI, RB Ryquell Armstead, JAX, WR Terry McLaurin, WAS, WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside, PHI, WRs N’Keal Harry & Jakobi Meyers, NE, TE Noah Fant, DEN, TE Josh Oliver, JAX

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

WR Diontae Johnson, PIT (Wk. 10: vs. LAR): Johnson doesn’t get a great matchup this week against a Rams’ defense allowing the 10^th-fewest WR points per game, but I think the opportunity is there for a stronger game that expected. Jalen Ramsey probably won’t follow JuJu Smith-Schuster into the slot, but he’ll be matched up on him whenever he lines up outside. Johnson had a disappointing game last weekend, but his snap share was right on par with where he’s been. The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog this week and the Rams rank 4^th in run defense DVOA and 15^th in pass defense DVOA, so the way to attack them is through the air and the script should give Pittsburgh reason to throw. If Ramsey locks horns with JuJu a bunch, Diontae should be the biggest benefactor.

WR Darius Slayton, NYG (Wk. 10: @NYJ): Slayton’s usage has dipped a bit with Golden Tate integrated into the offense since returning from suspension, but the Giants are likely to be without Evan Engram on Sunday and face a Jets team that has allowed the 7^th-most WR points per game. Slayton is far from a sure thing this week, but I like his chances to post a solid game with Engram’s 8.5 targets per game out of the equation.

WR AJ Brown, TEN (Wk. 10: vs. KC): Brown gets mentioned as a sleeper this week due to the potential that Corey Davis misses this game. Brown has been targeted 18 times in the last 3 weeks with Ryan Tannehill at QB, and while Tannehill also has shown an affinity for slot receiver Adam Humphries the Chiefs have been more vulnerable to outside WRs. Kansas City allows the 7^th-fewest WR points per game, but the biggest fantasy days they’ve allowed have been to athletic perimeter receivers like Courtland Sutton (6-87), Kenny Golladay (5-67-2), Marvin Jones (3-77), DJ Chark (4-146-1), and Tyrell Williams (5-46-1). They even let Laquon Treadwell post a career-high 58 receiving yards last week. Brown is much closer to the type of receiver they’ve given up points to than Humphries is. If Davis misses this game, Brown becomes a big upside WR4 despite a seemingly tough matchup.

TE Irv Smith Jr, MIN (Wk. 10: @Dal.): The Vikings will have some extra passing volume to spread around this week with Adam Thielen sidelined again, and Smith has been proving to be a reliable target. Over the past 4 weeks he has the same number of receptions as Kyle Rudolph (14) and 9 more receiving yards (143), and he has an impressive 83.6% catch rate on the year. The Cowboys allow the 7^th-most points to the tight end position, which leads me to believe that tight end is where many of those extra targets will go. Smith is an interesting dart throw this week in the deepest of leagues and in DFS tournaments.

TE Jace Sternberger, GB (Wk. 10: vs. Car.): There is no reason to play Sternberger this week against a Panthers’ defense that allows the 7^th-fewest points to the position, but it’s worth noting that he has been activated off injured reserve and the Packers haven’t really gotten what they’d hoped for from the soon to be 33-year old Jimmy Graham. The 22-year old Sternberger was a field stretcher at the tight end position for Texas A&M and he may get the chance to do the same for the Packers sooner than we’d expect. Sternberger was second among all tight ends in NCAA yards per catch last year. He’s certainly worth a stash in dynasty leagues if he’s out there, and he might come in handy in deeper TE premium leagues before this season is out.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and make sure you aren’t starting anyone who will be inactive or roadblocked by an active player who was hurt. If you have any specific questions or just want to yell at me about what is written above, feel free to reach out on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.