Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 8 brought us the coming-out party for David Montgomery, touchdowns for Miles Sanders & Devin Singletary, multiple touchdowns for DK Metcalf and Darius Slayton, and another sparkling Gardner Minshew performance. Week 9 has already brought us the benching of Andy Dalton for rookie Ryan Finley and the games haven’t even started yet. Finley may be worth a speculative add in 2QB leagues despite the Bengals being on a bye in week 9. I expect him to be more of a game manager type in the same vein as Dalton, but he will have some weapons to work with. Dalton was the QB18 on the year and hasn’t had AJ Green on the field for a single snap. Green is expected to return after the bye. We’re approaching the home stretch of the fantasy regular season and hitting some of the biggest bye weeks of the year. Hopefully, you’ve got the depth to withstand the byes, but if not, there are certainly some rookies who might help you survive. Let’s dive into the week 9 outlook.
Rookies to Start:
RB Josh Jacobs, OAK (Wk. 9: vs. Det.): Jacobs had his lowest rushing yardage total since Week 3 and failed to find the end zone last Sunday, but he still posted a passable week with 10.1 PPR points. It’s certainly not the kind of output you hope for from him, but if he’s going to finish as the RB28 when he has a bad game, I’d be more than comfortable firing him up as an RB2 every week. Jacobs gets a favorable matchup against the Lions this week. Detroit has allowed the 3rd-most RB points per game on the year and ranks 19th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat which measures defensive efficiency. They’ve given up a league-worst 62 receiving yards per game to opposing backs, and while Jacobs hasn’t been Oakland’s primary receiving back, he does have multiple catches in 3 straight games. Jacobs should be in your lineups if you have him.
WR DK Metcalf, SEA (Wk. 9: vs. TB): Now that Metcalf has finally broken through and had his first top-24 week of the season, he gets a chance to duplicate the feat in about the best possible matchup. The Bucs are what we call a pass funnel defense. They rank 1st in the league in run defense DVOA, but 26th in pass defense DVOA. Seattle will undoubtedly be looking to establish the run in a game where they’re a touchdown favorite, but this secondary is too porous to not go after. The Bucs allow the 5th-most WR points per game and have given up 9 receiving TDs to opposing receivers through 7 games. Metcalf has been Russ’s favorite weapon in close with 11 red zone targets. I like his chances at 50+ yards and a score this week.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Gardner Minshew, JAX (Wk. 9: vs. Hou. (London)): Gardner Minshew continues to make it harder for the Jaguars to go back to Nick Foles whenever he is ready to return. Minshew posted his best fantasy game of the year last week, finishing as the QB5, and gets another favorable matchup in London Sunday morning. Gardner had a passable fantasy day when these teams met in week 2, finishing as the QB15, but the Texans’ pass defense has been trending in the wrong direction since then, and they lost JJ Watt for the year. They’ve given up at least 270 passing yards and 3 TDs through the air in 4 straight games, a stretch that included matchups with Jacoby Brissett and Derek Carr. I wouldn’t just assume Minshew will match that kind of day, but he’s more of a borderline QB1 this week than just the usual solid QB2 play that he typically is. The Texans allow the 6th-most QB points per game and rank 23rd in pass defense DVOA.
QB Daniel Jones, NYG (Wk. 9: vs. Dal.): With Jared Goff, Matt Ryan, and Drew Brees all on byes this week, and Brandon Allen and Dwayne Haskins likely to make starts, Jones has to at least be in consideration as a QB2. He posted his best passing day of the year in Detroit last week and finished as the QB1 for the week. The matchup this week is much tougher with Dallas coming to town. The Cowboys have allowed the 4th-fewest QB points per game, but they have been notably worse on the road, allowing 16+ points to Case Keenum and Sam Darnold in 2 of their 3 road games this year. That’s obviously a small sample and hard to bank on, but Jones is starting to make some strides as his offensive weapons get healthy, and I like his chances of finishing this week as a mid-range QB2 or better. Dallas ranks just a middling 17th in pass defense DVOA.
RB Miles Sanders, PHI (Wk. 9: vs. Chi.): Sanders has been doing an incredible job of making the most of a less than ideal situation. He’s had to deal with being used as a second fiddle to Jordan Howard in the running game, but in the last 3 weeks, he’s turned 21 touches into 242 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 2 RB9 finishes. Those top-10 weeks were sandwiched around an RB36 finish in week 7. It appears that the Eagles are figuring out how to best deploy Sanders to maximize his game-breaking ability, but the lack of consistent touches is going to give him a low floor in weeks where he doesn’t cash in a big play. The matchup with the Bears this week is actually better than you might think. Chicago is allowing the 8th-most running back points per game, and they’ve struggled to slow down pass-catching backs. They’ve allowed the 4th-most receptions and 6th-most receiving yards per game to the position. The volume is suspect, but this is a decent spot to use Sanders in your flex and hope his strong performances continue.
RB David Montgomery, CHI (Wk. 9: @Phi.): The difference in Montgomery’s output in week 7 and his output in week 8 is staggering. It really makes you wonder what Matt Nagy was thinking against New Orleans when he only ran Monty 3 times. The ISU product was a revelation in week 8, piling up over 130 rushing yards and a touchdown against one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. In week 9 he’ll face one of the best. The Bears would be wise to continue to feed him the ball given how poorly Mitch Trubisky has played, but success has been hard to come by for running backs against the Eagles. Philly has allowed 5 backs all year to finish as the PPR RB17 or better (only 1 higher than RB15), and every single one of them tallied more than 9 and a half points as a receiver. Monty’s best receiving output of the year was the 5.2 PPR points he put up last Sunday (4 catches for 12 yards). The Eagles rank 6th in run defense DVOA. Volume alone should keep Monty in consideration this week as an RB2/flex option, but this could be another one of those weeks where you’re cursing his name afterward.
RB Devin Singletary, BUF (Wk. 9: vs. Was.): The final numbers from week 8 are extremely promising for Singletary. He found the end zone for the second time this year and finished as the PPR RB17 despite handling just 7 touches, and more importantly played 68% of the Bills’ offensive snaps while Frank Gore handled just 29%. I’d like to take a moment to tell people with Singletary on their rosters not to get ahead of themselves just yet. Singletary saw just one offensive touch before the Eagles had opened up a two-score lead in the early second half. Frank Gore is still going to be the lead back in this offense when the Bills play from ahead, and they should do that this week as a 9.5-point favorite against Washington. There should still be a good amount of work for Singletary in a pretty favorable matchup, but don’t expect him to play two-thirds of the snaps again this week unless the Bills are playing from behind. Washington allows the 10th-most RB points per game and ranks 18th in run defense DVOA. Singletary is an upside flex play this week.
WR Marquise Brown, BAL (Wk. 9: vs. NE): Brown is expected to return this week, and the Ravens have had the bye week to try and come up with a plan to attack the Patriots’ defense. The Pats have been performing at a historic level, but the Ravens’ offense is something different than what they’ve faced this year. Hollywood’s production had dipped a bit prior to his hamstring injury, as he totaled just 9-93-1 on 21 targets in the previous 3 games he’s played, but I’d look for the Ravens to try and get him involved early in this one. New England allows the fewest WR points per game, so this is a dicey spot to get Brown back in your lineups, but he’s an intriguing contrarian play in DFS lineups at just $4,800 on DraftKings. You also are going to be hard pressed to find a player with more upside than Brown if you need a bye week fill-in this week in deeper leagues.
WR Diontae Johnson, PIT (WK. 9: vs. Ind.): With Mason Rudolph at QB, Johnson has ascended to the clear WR2 in the Pittsburgh offense. He’s got almost as many targets from Rudolph as JuJu does, and in the 3 games that Rudolph has started and finished, Johnson has totaled 14-211-3 on 19 targets. The Colts have been worse against the run than the pass, but they’ve been no more than a middling defense against wide receivers. With both James Conner and Benny Snell unlikely to play, the Steelers may be throwing a bit more than usual in this one. Johnson should be right on the cusp of being a WR3 option this week.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Kyler Murray, ARI (Wk. 9: vs. SF): Murray is coming off his two worst fantasy games of the season, and this week runs into an absolute buzzsaw on a short week. The 49ers defense has been playing at an insane level of late. Since their week 4 bye, they haven’t allowed a single passing touchdown or QB rushing yard and have limited their last 4 opponents to 412 passing yards total. It’s true they haven’t faced a real running QB yet this season, so Murray could test them in some ways they haven’t been tested yet, but there’s no way I would trust Murray in fantasy lineups this week.
QB Dwayne Haskins, WAS (Wk. 9: @Buf.): It looks as though Haskins is likely to make his first career start this week if Case Keenum can’t get out of the concussion protocol, but this is a brutal spot to get an opportunity. The Bills allow the 5th-fewest QB points per game and haven’t allowed any passer to throw for multiple touchdowns against them yet. Nothing we’ve seen from Haskins suggests he’ll be the first guy to do it. Washington looked afraid to throw the football in the second half last Thursday with Haskins in, as he attempted just 5 passes in the second half despite the team trailing for the entire half. I’d be surprised if Haskins throws the ball more than 20 times, and even more surprised if he does anything productive with those throws.
RB Alexander Mattison, MIN (Wk. 9: @KC): Mattison did what I expected him to do last week and thrived in a game the Vikings won easily. Earlier this year you would not have pegged this game at Arrowhead as one the Vikings were likely to win easily, but with Matt Moore at QB it’s a very real possibility. The Chiefs have struggled against opposing backs, allowing the 4th-most fantasy points per game to the position and ranking 30th in run defense DVOA. All of this adds up to Mattison having some sleeper appeal, but I would struggle to pull the trigger on that this week. The Chiefs have played better than I would’ve expected with Moore at QB, and Mattison needs the team to be up comfortably to get significant touches. With a price tag of $5,000 on DraftKings, he’s a little too expensive to be a sneaky option in GPP tournaments for me.
RB Benny Snell, PIT (Wk. 9: vs. Ind.): Snell exited Monday night’s game with a knee injury and seems to be at best very questionable for Sunday’s tilt with the Colts. James Conner was hurt as well, but early reports make it sound like Conner has a better chance of suiting up this week than Snell. The guy who should pick up the slack is Jaylen Samuels, who will serve as the lead back if Conner is unable to go. There is some upside here with the Colts ranking 29th in run defense DVOA, so Snell has some minor sleeper appeal if he plays and Conner doesn’t, but he would still be the change of pace back to Samuels in that case. He’s probably best left on the bench this week even if he does play.
WR Terry McLaurin, WAS (Wk. 9: @Buf.): Some of you might not have the luxury of being able to sit McLaurin and as Washington’s WR1 there is still at least a little upside here, but I list him in the ‘Rookies to Sit’ section to drive home just how unfavorable this spot is for him. If Haskins starts it’ll be hard to justify starting McLaurin. The Bills allow the 5th-fewest WR points per game and the total passing volume for Washington would be limited. The Bills haven’t allowed a receiver touchdown this season and have only allowed 3 receivers all year to average 15 yards per catch or more: Josh Gordon (3-46), Allen Hurns (3-53) and Alshon Jeffery (4-64). If McLaurin has a limited number of targets, it’s going to be hard to put up big yards or TDs in this one. If Keenum plays, McLaurin becomes more of a low-ceiling borderline play, but this could be a tough week for the F1.
WR AJ Brown, TEN (Wk. 9: @Car.): Ryan Tannehill reminded us last week that he’s still Ryan Tannehill and made any of us who believed in the offensive resurgence the Titans showed in week 7 look like fools. Brown salvaged his fantasy day with a touchdown, but 3 targets isn’t the kind of volume that fantasy winners thrive on. The Panthers have been a better pass defense than you might realize, ranking 3rd in the league in pass defense DVOA. Look for the Titans to focus on the ground game for much of this one, making Brown more of a TD dart throw again this week.
WR Deebo Samuel, SF (Wk. 9: @Ari.): The 49ers have been scheming the ball into Deebo’s hands, which is exciting to see, but this offense isn’t high-volume enough to have 3 fantasy-viable pass catchers, and the top 2 look to clearly be George Kittle and Emmanuel Sanders. Samuel will have weeks where finds the end zone and/or has nice production, but this is unlikely to be one of those weeks with the Niners favored by double-digits. It should be a lot of Tevin Coleman, Matt Breida, and even some Raheem Mostert this week.
WR Mecole Hardman, KC (Wk. 9: vs. Min.): Hardman managed to produce a long touchdown on Sunday night, but he did so on just 2 targets while splitting WR3 snaps with Demarcus Robinson due to the return of Sammy Watkins. With Matt Moore under center that is about the best performance you can expect from Hardman. He’ll be a TD dart throw once again this week. The Vikings have allowed just 2 pass plays of 40+ yards all year, and if I had to bet on a Chief to put up a 3rd one it would be Tyreek Hill. There are likely safer options available this week than Hardman.
WR Hunter Renfrow, OAK (Wk. 9: vs. Det.): This isn’t the worst spot to hope for Renfrow to build on what he did last week, but almost all of his production came on one long play that isn’t likely to be repeated this week. The Lions have struggled with slot receivers, but most of the guys they have had those issues with have been much more proven than Renfrow (Golden Tate, Keenan Allen, Larry Fitzgerald). That one TD accounted for more than 30% of Renfrow’s PPR points for the season. Outside of that play he has just 17 catches for 138 yards in 7 games. Don’t chase a repeat performance that isn’t coming.
WR Olabisi Johnson, MIN (Wk. 9: @ KC): All signs point to Adam Thielen returning to the lineup Sunday, so Bisi Johnson should return to your league’s waiver wire. There won’t be a ton of opportunity for him in the pass game with Diggs and Thielen on the field, and this week’s opponent allows the 7th-fewest WR points per game.
WR Jakobi Meyers, NE (Wk. 9: @Bal.): As expected, the Mohamed Sanu trade has impacted Meyers’ playing time. He saw the field for just 25 offensive snaps last week, the fewest he’s played since week 4, and was targeted just twice. I would expect that number to go down further as Sanu gets more acclimated to the offense. The Ravens haven’t been a pass defense to fear, but they’re getting healthier and Meyers isn’t likely to have a useful fantasy day on just a couple targets.
WR Miles Boykin, BAL (Wk. 9: vs. NE): Boykin posted his best yardage game of the year headed into the bye in week 7 (55 yards against Seattle), but he still hasn’t seen more than 3 targets or 2 catches in any game this season, and the Ravens didn’t have Marquise Brown for 2 of them. He continues to be a complementary player that isn’t getting enough usage to be trusted in fantasy lineups.
WR Parris Campbell, IND (Wk. 9: @Pit.): Campbell returned from his abdominal injury last weekend, but he’s got more work to do to get back into the receiver rotation in Indy. He played just 8 snaps in week 8 and was targeted only once. The Steelers have long been a team to target with slot receivers, but I would need to see Campbell be more involved in the offense before using him in any format.
WRs KeeSean Johnson & Andy Isabella, ARI (Wk. 9: vs. SF): There isn’t a whole lot to say about this duo. With Christian Kirk back this week, Johnson was a healthy scratch and Isabella played just one offensive snap. I’d love to see Isabella to get a chance at some extended run in this offense before the year is out, but there’s no way to be sure that happens at this point.
TE Irv Smith Jr., MIN (Wk. 9: @KC): Smith has seen his snap percentage grow for 4 consecutive weeks and has multiple targets in each of the past 3 games, but his role just isn’t big enough to count on him in fantasy yet. The Chiefs are a decent defense against tight ends. Darren Fells is the only tight end to reach 40 yards against them since week 3, and they have given up just one touchdown to the position all year. Smith should be glued to your bench if you have him anywhere.
TE Noah Fant, DEN (WK. 9: vs. Cle.): Fant set new season highs last week with 8 targets and 5 catches, but he still finished with just 26 yards and was the PPR TE15. This outing still should have been reason for optimism with Fant’s role growing with Emmanuel Sanders gone, but that optimism is dashed by the new man under center. While we may not like Joe Flacco to be the QB for our fantasy players, I don’t believe Brandon Allen will prove to be an upgrade. Allen has never thrown a pass in an NFL regular season game, and over the past two preseasons with the Rams averaged just 5.8 yards per attempt while posting just 1 TD and 5 picks. Until further notice, the only Denver pass catcher worth considering is Courtland Sutton.
TE Foster Moreau, OAK (Wk. 9: vs. Det.): Moreau is no more than a TD dart throw against a defense that has only allowed 2 scores to the tight end position this year. Moreau’s playing time took a small dip last week as the Raiders played more 3 receiver sets. I’d wouldn’t expect that to be the norm moving forward though. The Lions have had issues with backup tight ends this year, allowing Deon Yelder to go 2-43, Marcedes Lewis to go 2-50, and Irv Smith to go 5-60 all within their last 4 team games. I’d still avoid Moreau this week if possible.
TE Dawson Knox, BUF (Wk.9: vs. Was.): With Tyler Kroft healthy for the first time this year, Knox played his lowest snap total of the year (28 snaps) and wasn’t targeted once. This looks like it’ll be a time share moving forward that favors Kroft. I wouldn’t expect Knox to consistently see zero targets, but his volume isn’t a sure enough thing to trust him in lineups.
TE Josh Oliver, JAX (Wk. 9: vs. Hou. (London)): Oliver has been back on the field for two weeks now. In those two weeks he’s played 55 offensive snaps but totaled just 1 catch for 6 yards on 2 targets. His role may expand in the coming weeks but there isn’t enough there right now to consider him in lineups.
Rookies on Byes: QB Ryan Finley, CIN, RB Darrell Henderson, LAR
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
QB Brett Rypien, DEN (Wk. 9: vs. Cle.): It sounds as though it will be Rypien, and not 1st round pick Drew Lock that will be activated to serve as backup to Brandon Allen with Flacco sidelined for the next month plus. I wouldn’t be surprised to see head coach Vic Fangio have a quick hook for Allen if things go poorly, and I think Rypien could potentially thrive in the same ways that Gardner Minshew has. Rypien doesn’t have the arm strength that Drew Lock does, but he was a 4-year starter at Boise State that was a consistently efficient passer and shouldn’t be a deer in headlights if given the chance to play. Allen was a one-year wonder in college, and as I mentioned earlier, he has 1 TD and 5 INTs in the 8 preseason games he’s played in. I liked Rypien more than Lock prior to the draft, and I’m hopeful to see him get a shot here. If you’re in a really deep 2-QB league, Rypien might be worth a stash this week to see if he gets a chance.
RB Ty Johnson, DET (Wk. 9: @Oak.): Johnson’s role in week 8 was a frustrating one for fantasy players who made him a priority on the waiver wire. It was Tra Carson getting the early down work and somehow even Paul Perkins mixed in a bit as Johnson found his way to just 38 scrimmage yards and 4.8 PPR points. There is hope for Johnson this week though. He was easily the most impressive back for Detroit in that game and had 21 yards nixed by penalties. Importantly for this week, Johnson and McKissic are the only Lions RBs getting targets in the passing game. The Raiders allow the 7th-most catches and 10th-most receiving yards to the position. There will be opportunities for Johnson to make an impact. I’m not sure he’s worth playing anywhere outside of really deep leagues and possibly a GPP DFS tournament, but I like his chances at a much better performance this week.
RB Tony Pollard, DAL (Wk. 9: @NYG): The Cowboys enter this week as a 7-point favorite and have had an extra week to get ready for the Giants after appearing to get themselves right in a week 7 drubbing of the Eagles. Pollard didn’t find a ton of running room against Philly, totaling just 28 yards on 8 carries, but the Eagles are one of the best run defenses in the league and Pollard played more snaps in that contest than he had in the previous 3 combined. The Giants aren’t a complete pushover against the run, but they are significantly worse than Philadelphia. They rank 12th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 13th-most RB points per game. If Dallas controls this game as expected, Pollard has a good chance at double-digit touches and should be in play in the deepest leagues.
WR Preston Williams, MIA (Wk. 9: vs. NYJ): This isn’t a bad week to take a shot on Preston Williams in deep leagues and GPP tournaments. $4,200 is an extremely reasonable price tag on DraftKings for a guy that is averaging 8 targets per game in his last 5. The Jets rank 21st in pass defense DVOA and allow the 8th-most WR points per game. One of these weeks it will be Williams’ turn to find the end zone, but he offers a nice floor this week with upside for people looking for a bye week fill-in in deeper leagues.
WR Darius Slayton, NYG (Wk. 9: vs. Dal.): This will sound a bit like point chasing after Slayton scored 2 TDs last week on just 2 catches, but I think people are going to overlook the rookie with Sterling Shepard returning. Slayton was targeted 5 times the last time both Shepard & Tate played together, and clearly the team likes going to him in the red zone. He’s averaging 17 air yards per target, which means he only needs a few balls thrown his way to post a nice game. I would probably avoid Slayton in season-long leagues, but at just $3,800 on DraftKings, I like him as a guy who will have really low ownership rates in DFS tournaments and has the potential for another strong day.
TE TJ Hockenson, DET (Wk. 9: @Oak.): If there was ever a week to take a shot on Hockenson returning some value, this is it. The Raiders have been beaten up by tight ends this year, giving up 63 yards per game to the position and 6 scores in 7 games. Only the Cardinals and Bucs allow more fantasy points to the position. It’s been rough out there for TJ since putting up 131 yards in the opener. He has just 109 total yards since and hasn’t eclipsed 32 yards in any one game in that span. You’re not playing him expecting big yardage. You’re just hoping he scores a TD.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you with the toughest decisions you have this week involving the rookies. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and make sure everyone in your lineups is good to go, and don’t forget that the Jaguars/Texans game this week is at 8:30 AM CT in London, so if you have any players on those teams make sure you are on top of setting your lineup. If you have any specific questions or just want to yell at me about what is written above, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.
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