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Welcome back for Week 6 of our Confidence Pool Picks!

 

This week, we are going to set the tone early for the as our top point line game will come with a sure thing Thursday night. It’s always fun to go into the full slate of Sunday action knowing that your top line game already paid out!

 

On the flip side, sometimes it is fun to have that top line game come on Monday Night. It gives a little more excitement to that game and a little more ease on Sunday knowing that you can still make a big push for first with the last game of the week.

 

Week 6 – HERE WE GO!!!!

 

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

 

14 – NEW ENGLAND over New York Giants – The Patriots schedule has just been an absolute joke so far.

 

13 – BALTIMORE over Cincinnati – Baltimore should be able to end their three game divisional matchup streak with an easy W.

 

12 – Dallas over NEW YORK JETS – There are just so many jokes to make with Sam Darnold retuning from his mono-based absence. But the real joke will be the play of the Jets.

 

11 – LOS ANGELES CHARGERS over Pittsburgh – After a home loss to Denver, the Chargers will have a lot of aggression to take out on the Steelers.

 

10 – GREEN BAY over Detroit – I will say, the Lions have played the Packers tough in Green Bay as of late. But this year, this looks like a different Packers team.

 

9 – LOS ANGELES RAMS over San Francisco – The 9ers don’t necessarily have to win this game to show that they are a legit contender, but they at least need to keep it close. I’m not sure they will.

 

8 – MINNESOTA over Philadelphia – Sorry Eagles, you can’t play the Jets every week.

 

7 – KANSAS CITY over Houston – An obvious Game of the Week candidate, but I just don’t see the Chiefs laying an egg at home twice in a row.

 

6 – New Orleans over JACKSONVILLE – The Saints have shown that life after Drew Brees may not exactly be the worst thing.

 

5 – DENVER over Tennessee – I would say that this is the most boring matchup this week…but keep reading…

 

4 – CLEVELAND over Seattle – I feel that the Browns, instead of being the division champs that most had them being this season, will be a solid .500 team while beating some top teams along the way.

 

3 – Carolina over TAMPA BAY (in London) – Be sure to make all of your Panther/Buc fantasy decisions made early as we get Sunday MORNING football! Thanks, London!

 

2 – Atlanta over ARIZONA – This seems like it will be one of those games where the Falcons make it seem like they are a powerhouse again. They’ll look like with this week…but they’re not. My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that THE FALCONS WILL FINISH WITH 6 WINS OR LESS.

 

1 – Washington over MIAMI – So what number will be higher, the number of points the Patriots put up against the Giants or the number of fans in the crowd for this one?

 

 

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It's Week 6 in the NFL, and while there have been a lot of ups and downs it looks like we're finally getting a grip on the season. Gardner Minshew is a top-10 play, Baker Mayfield is not startable, and Christian McCaffrey is on track for a historic fantasy season. Tyreek Hill is on his way back to WR1 status with Mahomes and Austin Hooper has been tearing it up. Just another fantasy season! Don't chase hgh performances, but take a look at the rankings we have up as a guideline on your way to the championship!

 

Pay attention to these rankings throughout the week, as they will continue to evolve based on the latest injury updates, news, and player/matchup analysis. Good luck this season and remember, you can tweet us @drinkfive with any of your lineup questions!

 

 

 

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Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.

 

 

16 Point Fantasy Floor

 

This season, only 3 players in the NFL have a solid fantasy floor. The always reliable Patrick Mahomes, even when his team scores a scant 13 points, has not scored less than 18 fantasy points all season. The other two guys are a bit more surprising. Kyler Murray and Gardner Minshew II. Murray notched his first win on Sunday against the hapless Bengals. He had his best day statistically as a fantasy QB, not turning the ball over and gaining 93 yards on the ground to go with a TD. Murray ended the day as the QB6 to Minshew’s QB8. Both guys are rookies, one was the first overall draft pick and the other is clearly a future hall-of-famer and worthy successor to Blake Bortles in the eyes of Jason from The Good Place. Minshew had a tough matchup against fellow rookie phenom Kyle Allen on Sunday. Unfortunately for Minshew, he doesn’t have Christian McCaffrey on his team. Speaking of the guy leading ALL fantasy players and the MVP race at the moment…

 

866 Yards from Scrimmage

 

Christian McCaffrey had himself a game on Sunday. His 237 yards from scrimmage and 3 TDs were actually only good for the 3rd best point total on a day with huuuuge points, but more on them later. McCaffrey is now on pace for 2770 yards from scrimmage this season, smashing the record of 2509 set by Chris Johnson in 2009. So far, McCaffrey leads the league in rushing yards and, second in receiving yards among RBs. He is the top point scorer in all of fantasy football, with 128.60 points, just nudging out QBs Lamar Jackson and Russell Wilson. Next up, the Buccaneers, the only team that has managed to hold McCaffrey to under 23.9 points this season. I expect him to have a much better performance this time around.

 

6 Players Above 30 Fantasy Points

 

This week was all about big performances. The early games, and there were a lot of them (10!), had the Texans hanging 53 points on Atlanta. Along the way, Deshaun Watson threw 5 TDs and notched 41.74 fantasy points, a season high at the position. Three of those scores were via the hands of Will Fuller V, who had his own monster day of 217 yards and 3 TDs for 39.70 points. This was more than double his season points total so far, having not exceeded 6.9 points in a game all year. Falcons QB Matt Ryan continued his excellent, but quiet year. His 32.9 points on Sunday was excellent for fantasy players, but a terrible losing effort for his team. Ryan also gets an honorable mention in regards to my earlier stat about QB floors – his lowest game this year is 15.68. Michael Thomas put up a ho-hum 30+ point game, showing that he’s good no matter who’s throwing him the ball. I already mentioned Christian McCaffrey, who was sitting on top of the RB list this week until Aaron Jones had something to say about it. Jones basically beat the Cowboys all by himself. Putting up a whopping 42.2 points, he had 182 yards from scrimmage and 4 TDs on the ground. Aaron Rodgers owners may not be thrilled, but clearly, we all see who the real A-a-ron is in Green Bay right now.

 

35 Fantasy Points

 

But wait, there was one more entry to the 30 points and over club! A D/ST had a huge day and surprisingly it wasn’t the odds-on favorite New England Patriots against the hapless Washington Redskins. The Philadelphia Eagles just dismantled the New York Jets, limiting them to only 9 first downs, putting up 10 sacks and scoring TDs on both an interception and a fumble recovery. They added another interception just for fun and because, apparently, it’s easy to pick on Luke Falk. The Jets need Sam Darnold back as soon as possible. Maybe Darnold can get tips from Jason Witten on how to rehab one’s spleen. I don’t really see this performance as indicative of the Eagles getting better, but rather it just shows how bad the Jets are. The Eagles play Minnesota, Dallas and Buffalo coming up, and I see no advantage to keeping them around this week. Continue streaming, friends!

 

3 of the Top 10

 

Finally, a bit about kickers in fantasy football. Only 3 of the top 10 performers in Week 5 were owned in our drinkfive fantasy league. Those three kickers are owned in at least 78% of Yahoo leagues. The remaining 7 kickers have an average ownership of just about 19%, showing that nobody knows what the hell a kicker is going to do week to week, mostly because it’s not up to them! This is just my latest entry to my argument that kickers probably don’t need to have anything to do with fantasy football. Any Sunday, you’ve got an equal chance, it seems, to have a guy like Dan Bailey (10% owned) put up the same amount of points as a guy like Justin Tucker (99% owned). It’s just ridiculous that 2 of the top 5 kickers on the year are owned in fewer than 25% of Yahoo leagues, Matt Gay (22%) and Zane Gonzalez (17%).

 

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Here's three games with interesting fantasy matchups that you can use to help make your lineup decisions.

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints - Let’s try this one more time, shall we. Last week I predicted that the Saints would be giving up a lot of points to the Cowboys, and the entire game featured one touchdown and 5 field goals. I do, however, have more faith in the new Bucs offense than the new-ish Cowboys one. Tampa has scored 96 points in the last 10 quarters of football. Jameis Winston only has one turnover during that time and WRs Chris Godwin and Mike Evans are putting up huge numbers. Of course you’re starting them, but I think you need to get Jameis Winston in your lineup as well, since the Saints are giving up the 2nd most points to opposing QBs.

 

I also think that Ronald Jones is a guy you can fire up. His snap % has gone from 12 to 31 to 49 in the last 3 weeks and he had 20 touches in last week’s game. On the other side, Tampa is in the top 10 giving up points to opposing QBs and WRs, but with Teddy Bridgewater at the helm, I’m still only starting Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara on the Saints.


Arizona Cardinals @ Cincinnati Bengals -  Two teams and 8 games between them and nary a win in sight. The Cards did sniff it in Week 1 with a tie, but these guys are a combined 0-7-1. Both teams lost by 3 scores last week, and at this point it’s just about pride. Let’s start with the Cardinals RB David Johnson, who has a spectacular matchup this week – basically guaranteed double digit points in a standard league. How can I say this? Well in 4 games, the Bengals have had 7 RBs score at least 13 points against them, again, standard scoring. Those 7 RBs are basically averaging 100 yards and a TD each. This should open things up for Kyler Murray and he will likely find Larry Fitzgerald early and often. Fitz will be boosted by the absence of Christian Kirk. Andy Isabella will see more work, but it’ll be on the outside, according the Kliff Kingsbury.

 

Regardless, the Cardinals run far more 4-WR sets than the rest of the league and there will be a lot of mouths to feed on offense, so I only like Fitzgerald and Johnson as solid fantasy starts, but they should be tremendous against the crappy Bengals. I also like Tyler Eifert for the Bengals, as the Cardinals have given up an absurd about of points to opposing tight ends. The Cardinals are giving up over 19 points per game to opposing TEs, while the next closest team is giving up only 12. This is historically bad, start Eifert!


Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers - Traditionally, this is a defensive struggle, but that’s not likely on Sunday. The Ravens have given up over 500 yards of offense the last two weeks. The Steelers finally figured out their offense as led by Mason Rudolph, and the name of the game is efficiency. The Steelers are in the top 10 for most points against at WR and RB while Baltimore is in the top 11 of each of those stats. Both defenses are in the bottom half of the league when it comes to yards given up. The Steelers gave up 85 points in the first 3 weeks and the Ravens have given up 73 in just the last two! This is shaping up to be a solid fantasy matchup for both sides.

 

For the Steelers, I like James Conner of course, though his available may be up in the air, so keep an eye on injury reports. Jaylen Samuels proved very valuable and could have a huge role if Conner doesn’t play. Both Conner and Samuels had 8 targets and 10 carries, so they’ve both got value as starters, especially in a PPR league. Juju has to get involved sooner or later, so keep him in this week because it’s clear that the Steelers still love him. I also like Diontae Johnson if you’ve got bye week or injury troubles. 6 targets and 6 catches in an offense with lots of short passes is a good sign, especially in a PPR league.

 

For the Ravens, I like Lamar Jackson to continue to dominate, and hell, he’s the #1 fantasy player so far this year, so of course you’re starting him. Even when the team is losing, he finds a way to put up those garbage points. Last week, Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown did not put up the big numbers you want to see, but they both had lots of targets and that will continue all year long. Start them both along with Mark Ingram and don’t be surprised if both teams put up over 30 points in this division matchup.

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Last week, we finally had some upsets in the NFL, and 568 entrants were eliminated from the pool. I gave you an easy winner last week with the Chargers, who stomped out the Dolphins like everyone else has this year. But alas, this week the Dolphins are on bye, so I'm going to have to really put on my thinking cap to pick this week's winner.

 

Looking at the schedule I was inclined to pick the undefeated 49ers against the Cleveland Browns at home, but I just don't know which one of those teams is for real and which one’s a pretender yet, so I'm going to skip that one. After seeing I've already used some of the biggest favorites of the week, I decided to go out on a limb a little bit and pick the Minnesota Vikings.

 

There's been a lot of drama and shit talking regarding their terrible quarterback Kirk Cousins, but I think that it just motivated guys like Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen to really go off this week and put a whooping on a resurgent Giants team. Danny Dimes is looking good so far, but the Vikings defense is fierce and I think the Vikings will win this game. Plus, one Golden Tate minus one Saquon Barkley equals negative Saquon Barkley's. That pretty much sums up how I feel the Giants are performing this game.

 

On a final note, I would like to add a suggestion. Stefon Diggs should to request a trade destination like either the New England Patriots or the Kansas City Chiefs. My fantasy teams would really enjoy that. This article was written while driving to Sequoia National Park for a camping weekend so I hope it's plenty coherent and enjoyable enough and that the pic is a good one. Have a good weekend everybody.

 

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Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 4 was a rough one for me here at the Rookie Report, and it was a rough week to be a rookie in general unless your name is AJ Brown or Diontae Johnson. TJ Hockenson found the end zone, but also suffered a brutal concussion. Terry McLaurin was unable to play in a plum matchup. DK Metcalf, Hollywood Brown and Mecole Hardman had a brutal week as they COMBINED for just 37 yards – and Hardman lost a fumble as well. Miles Sanders got to watch firsthand as Jordan Howard put up a monster fantasy game and took the majority of the Eagles’ backfield production against a bad run defense, and David Montgomery finally got some serious volume but managed just 53 yards on 21 carries (2.52 ypc). As for the quarterbacks, Daniel Jones and Kyler Murray both had lackluster days, but Dwayne Haskins wouldn’t be outdone. Haskins was Nathan Peterman-esque in his debut, throwing 3 interceptions in just 17 attempts. Josh Jacobs and Gardner Minshew both posted respectable weeks, but the rest of the rookie pool was mostly a wasteland. Let’s talk about what to do with your rookies in week 5 and see who might bounce back…

 

Rookies to Start:

RB David Montgomery, CHI (Wk. 5: @Oak.): While the overall efficiency for Montgomery was frustrating last week, the volume is a great sign. Monty saw season highs in snaps, carries, and targets with Chase Daniel under center. It’ll be Daniel at the helm again in London, and the Bears are favored by 5 & a half points. The Raiders have been solid against the run so far this year, but they aren’t on par with the Vikings. A similar workload against a less formidable defense should lead Montgomery to a solid RB2 afternoon (or evening if you’re in London).

WR Marquise Brown, BAL (Wk. 5: @Pit.): Hollywood definitely failed to put on a show in week 4, but the targets were still there. He’s going to consistently see the football come his way, and the Steelers are not a pass defense to fear. They rank 19th in pass defense DVOA. Brown showed you what the floor looks like in week 4, but you’ll be kicking yourself if you leave him on the bench and he hits his ceiling.

 

Borderline Rookies:

QB Kyler Murray, ARI (Wk. 5: @Cin.): I like Kyler in this matchup, but I’m a little hesitant to give a full-throated endorsement here. Murray hasn’t exactly set the world on fire like I thought he would yet, and he’s likely to be missing his number 2 receiver Christian Kirk. The expected replacement is Pharoh Cooper. The matchup is a good one. Only Miami and the Cards themselves have allowed a higher passer rating to opposing QBs than the Bengals. Murray should be a safe QB2 option this week, and his QB1 ceiling remains intact in the plus matchup.

QB Daniel Jones, NYG (Wk. 5: vs. Min.): This isn’t the best spot for Jones as a potential streamer, but it’s also not quite as bad a spot for him as it could be. Jones’ dink-and-dunk style could work well against a Vikings’ defense that has allowed the 6th-highest completion percentage to opposing QBs, especially with the return of Golden Tate. 7 of the 8 offensive touchdowns Minnesota has given up have been through the air. Jones would be outside of my top-12 QBs for the week, but not by a lot.

RB Josh Jacobs, OAK (Wk. 5: vs. Chi.): The trip to London for Jacobs this week is unlikely to be a pleasant one. His volume keeps him on the flex radar, but this is still a bit of a committee situation for Jacobs. After coach Jon Gruden talked about wanting to get more targets for Jacobs during the week, the rookie RB was targeted just twice in the passing game. He also played just 54% of the snaps in a game that Oakland led for most of the day. Oakland is a 5.5-point underdog this week against the Bears, who rank 3rd in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat and have allowed fewer RB rushing yards per game than everyone except New England, Philly and Tampa. You can start Jacobs if you have to, but temper your expectations.

RB Miles Sanders, PHI (Wk. 5: vs. NYJ): It’s tough for me to endorse starting Sanders this week. He’s going to see enough volume to at least be in consideration for your flex spot, especially with the Eagles favored by two touchdowns, but the Jets have been stout against the run. Outside of 4 magical Devin Singletary carries in week 1, the Jets have allowed opposing backs to run for just 146 yards on 54 carries (2.7 ypc) despite facing Nick Chubb and Sony Michel in one-sided losses. The Jets have surrendered 3 rushing scores through 3 games, but after watching Thursday night’s game it’s hard to imagine the goal line carries would go to anyone but Jordan Howard. Sanders is going to need to break a long play or two to return solid value as a flex this week.

WR DK Metcalf, SEA (Wk. 5: @LAR): Metcalf posted just 1 catch for 6 yards last week, but the opportunity has still been there. He had 107 air yards worth of targets last weekend and was targeted in the end zone once and didn’t cash in. In fact, 40% of all of the Seahawks pass attempts into the end zone have targeted Metcalf so far. The opportunities will continue to be there this week and he matches up with a Rams defense that gave up 385 passing yards and 4 TDs to the Bucs Sunday. Metcalf is a boom-or-bust WR3 this week.

WR Mecole Hardman, KC (Wk. 5: vs. Ind.): Hardman had an abysmal game in Detroit last week, and while I’d like to see him get back on track at home against Indy, Patrick Mahomes hasn’t put up quite the same video game numbers in matchups against teams that play a lot of zone. In 5 games against teams that ranked in the top-10 in zone defense %, Mahomes topped 300 yards just once and threw for more than 2 TDs just twice (per Rotoworld’s Ian Hartitz). The upside is still there as it always is in this offense, but Hardman is probably on the wrong side of the borderline for me this week.

WR Terry McLaurin, WAS (Wk. 5: vs. NE): I can’t completely write off McLaurin this week since he’s had at least 5 catches for 60 yards and a TD in every game this year, but this is a week where I wouldn’t be very confident he gets to those numbers. The Patriots have been the league’s best defense this year. Sure it’s been aided by a schedule that included the Jets, Dolphins, and Bills already, but Washington still hasn’t decided who will be starting at QB this week. It could be a rough game for the entire offense. You can give McLaurin a try this week if you’re feeling spicy, but know that there is a low floor.

WR Diontae Johnson, PIT (Wk. 5: vs. Bal.): Johnson’s recent play with Mason Rudolph at quarterback has been solid enough to at least get him on the flex radar for now. Diontae has a 20% target share with Rudolph at the helm (just one fewer target than JuJu), and he’s found the end zone in back-to-back games. It was also a promising sign that the Steelers went right back to him after an early fumble. The concern for Johnson is that the Steelers have been a low volume passing offense that isn’t throwing the ball downfield. He was the recipient of a long TD pass on Monday night, but it was one of just 3 passes that Rudolph threw more than 10 yards downfield. The Ravens haven’t exactly been a shut down unit, ranking 25th in pass defense DVOA, but the Steelers’ current offense doesn’t make Johnson a high upside option. You’ll likely need him to find the end zone again to return strong value.

 

Rookies to Sit:

QB Gardner Minshew, JAX (Wk. 5: @Car.): Week in and week out, Minshew continues to put up solid performances and has proven to be a passable weekly QB2 option. That’s not too bad for a kid that NO ONE thought would start games this year. This week’s matchup isn’t one to target Minshew in though. He still may finish as that steady QB2 he’s been, but it’s hard to see the upside for much more than that. The Panthers are allowing a league-low 182 passing yards per game and have given up just 4 passing scores so far. There are more appealing QB2 options this week.

QB Dwayne Haskins, WAS (Wk. 5: vs. NE): Haskins’ NFL debut was an unmitigated disaster. It makes you wonder why Washington didn’t have him better prepared if they knew they would have such a quick hook with Keenum. It was bad enough that he might not even make the start this week. Colt McCoy is apparently now healthy and could get the nod Sunday. If Haskins does start again, this would be about as bad a week as I could imagine to play him. The Patriots have allowed zero passing scores and have 10 interceptions through 4 games. Run far away from him this week.

RB Alexander Mattison, MIN (Wk. 5: @NYG): Mattison’s fantasy upside this season has been directly tied to game script. He’s done nothing in close games and when the Vikings have trailed (6 carries for 30 yards against Green Bay and Chicago in losses), but he’s shown value in positive game scripts (21-107-1 against Atlanta and Oakland in blowout wins). The Vikings are favored this week by 5.5 points, so there is a chance for another strong outing. If you’re in a really deep league and are confident the Vikes win easily he’s a guy to keep in mind, but be aware that the highest reasonable expectation for Mattison would be in the ballpark of 50 yards and a TD.

RB Ryquell Armstead, JAX (Wk. 5: @Car.): Armstead surprised last week with nearly 50 scrimmage yards and a touchdown, but I wouldn’t chase last week’s points. It was the first extended playing time he’s gotten all year, and he still played just 14 offensive snaps. The Panthers haven’t been great against the run, ranking 29th in run defense DVOA, but I don’t expect Armstead to play enough to take advantage of that.

RB Tony Pollard, DAL (Wk. 5: vs. GB): The Packers look like a defense to target with your running backs this season, but your running back has to see the field to be able to take advantage. Pollard was great against the Dolphins in a blowout win, but in a close game with the Saints on Sunday night he played just 2 offensive snaps. Dallas is favored by 3.5 in this game, but I don’t see Green Bay getting too far out of this one at any point. Keep Pollard sideline this week.

RB Dexter Williams, GB (Wk. 5: @Dal.): Williams will likely get some chances to spell Aaron Jones if Jamaal Williams isn’t recovered from his head injury in time for this one, but I wouldn’t expect the split to be anywhere near as even as it is with Jones and Jamaal. Aaron Jones should operate as the clear lead back. The matchup isn’t ideal as the Cowboys have allowed the 8th-fewest RB points per game. Dexter is also a bit overpriced to be a cheap DFS play at $4,200 on DraftKings,

RB Jon Hilliman, NYG (Wk. 5: vs. Min.): Hilliman saw 10 carries last week with Saquon Barkley out of commission, but much of that work came with the game already out of hand after two Wayne Gallman touchdowns. New York is much less likely to run away with this game as a 5.5-point underdog against the Vikings. There isn’t any reason to consider Hilliman this week.

WR AJ Brown, TEN (Wk. 5: vs. Buf.): Brown came up with a huge performance in week 4, with his second game with 90+ yards while also scoring his first 2 touchdowns. The weekly performance swings with Brown are going to be huge, and this isn’t a week to target him to go off again. The Bills have a reputation as one of the most formidable secondaries in the league and rank 3rd in pass defense DVOA thus far. This is likely to be more of a floor week than ceiling for Brown.

WRs Deebo Samuel & Jalen Hurd, SF (Wk. 5: vs. Cle.): The 49ers have already had one of the toughest WR rotations to figure out from a fantasy perspective, and things get even messier this week with Jalen Hurd expected to make his debut and Tevin Coleman likely to return to steal some targets from the WR group. George Kittle is still option #1 in the passing game, but your guess is as good as mine when it comes to who is #2, 3, and 4. The Browns rank 9th in pass defense DVOA, so I’d prefer to look for other options rather roll the dice on one of the 49ers’ receivers this week.

WR Hunter Renfrow, OAK (Wk. 5: vs. Chi.): Renfrow’s role as the Raiders’ primary slot receiver is secure, but so is his limited upside. He’s yet to top 4 catches or 30 yards in a game and has just 2 red zone targets on the year. He faces the Bears’ elite defense this week. There isn’t a reason to expect a breakout game from Renfrow this week.

WR Miles Boykin, BAL (Wk. 5: @Pit.): Boykin found the end zone for the 2nd time in 4 games last weekend, but he’s still playing behind Willie Snead and Seth Roberts and the Ravens’ passing game runs through Hollywood and Mark Andrews. Boykin will have the occasional game where he finds the end zone, but they’re going to be hard to predict. Until he moves up the depth chart he’s best left on your bench.

WR Andy Isabella, ARI (Wk. 5: @Cin.): There was speculation that this could be the week that Isabella sees an expanded role with Christian Kirk out of action, but head coach Kliff Kingsbury dumped a bucket of cold water on that thought on Wednesday. Kingsbury reiterated that Isabella will continue to work primarily as a perimeter receiver for the time being, and Kirk plays the vast majority of his snaps in the slot. It’s possible that Kliff is just trying to keep plans to unleash Isabella in the slot secret, but for now I’ll take him at his word. Isabella has been running behind KeeSean Johnson and Trent Sherfield on the outside and is yet to play more than 8 snaps in a game. It’s still a situation to monitor on Sunday, but I would avoid playing him anywhere.

TE Zach Gentry, PIT (Wk. 5: vs. Bal.): Gentry profiles as more of a receiving tight end than newly acquired Nick Vannett, but it was Vannett who played 75% of the offensive snaps on Monday night and saw the only 2 tight end targets with Vance McDonald sidelined. If McDonald sits again this week, I wouldn’t expect much to change. The Ravens have given up 60 yards per game to opposing tight ends, but I wouldn’t count on Vannett and Gentry to combine for that amount this week.

TE Foster Moreau, OAK (Wk. 5: vs. Chi.): Moreau had his best game of the year last Sunday, going 3-30-1 on 3 targets, but he still has just 7 targets on the year and isn’t seeing enough volume to even be a DFS dart throw against the Bears in London.

 

Rookies on Byes: RB Ty Johnson, DET, WR Preston Williams, MIA, TE TJ Hockenson, DET

 

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Devin Singletary, BUF (Wk. 5: @Ten.): It appears that Singletary is on track to return from injury this week, but I’d be a little hesitant to trust him to have a full workload after a multi-week layoff. Still, there is some upside for him to have a solid return. The Titans have allowed 6.5 catches per game to opposing RBs. Frank Gore has just 5 targets on the year, and TJ Yeldon played just 7 offensive snaps in the 2 weeks Singletary was active. There is some upside for a decent PPR game if Singletary is a full go this week.

RB Damien Harris, NE (Wk. 5: @Was.): I mainly mention Harris here as a stash in deeper leagues. Sony Michel has been much less effective than expected this year. He has literally zero broken tackles through 4 games and he’s averaged just 2.8 yards per carry. If that continues, he’s eventually going to lose playing time. We’ve already been seeing a decent amount of Rex Burkhead mixing in, but it’s only a matter of time before Harris starts getting looks as well. In his first 2 years as a Patriot, Rex hasn’t exactly been a picture of health, missing 14 of a possible 32 games with a range of maladies. There isn’t a reason to consider Harris this week as he may be inactive again, but he’s definitely a guy to be aware of playing in an offense that has scored 42% of their touchdowns with the ground game since the start of 2017.

WR Parris Campbell, IND (Wk. 5: @KC): This is a moot point if TY Hilton winds up being active this week, but Campbell led the team with 8 targets last Sunday with their WR1 sidelined. They were mostly short targets, but this is a game where game script is likely to force the Colts to throw just as much as they did last week. If he manages to turn a couple of those short throws into bigger gains, he could suddenly be a sneaky WR4 in PPR leagues. Monitor Hilton’s status if you’re considering using Campbell this week.

WR KeeSean Johnson, ARI (Wk. 5: @Cin.): The Christian Kirk injury will open a ton of opportunity in this offense this week, and I don’t imagine that all of it will go to David Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald. Kirk is averaging better than 9 targets per game, and it isn’t as if the Cards will suddenly be run-heavy this week. The Bengals defense is strongest on the perimeter, where Johnson plays, but he’s a better bet to pick up some extra work this week than Trent Sherfield or Pharoh Cooper. That makes him an intriguing DFS dart throw at just $3,500 on DraftKings. The Bengals rank 31st in pass defense DVOA.

TE Noah Fant, DEN (Wk. 5: @LAC): Fant scored his first touchdown of the year in week 4, and while his yardage totals have been between 29 and 37 each week, his snap share has been consistently high. The Chargers have allowed 3 touchdowns to opposing tight ends in the first 4 games, which makes Fant a decent bet to find the end zone for a second consecutive week. There isn’t much more you can ask for from a bottom of the barrel TE option in DFS ($2,800 on DraftKings)

TE Dawson Knox, BUF (Wk. 5: @Ten.): Knox has worked his way into the rotation as the Bills’ primary receiving tight end and has posted lines of 3-67-1 and 3-58 in the past two weeks. He’s only seen 7 targets total in those two games, but so far he’s making the most of them. The Titans allowed a TD to an opposing tight end in each of the first 3 games of the year. They managed to prevent it from becoming 4 straight last Sunday, but they allowed Austin Hooper to go 9-130. This is an enticing matchup for Knox. It’s reasonable to expect him in the 40-50 yard range with possible TD.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with the toughest lineup decisions you have that involve rookies. Keep on eye on the injury report leading up to the games this week and make sure you don’t start any inactive players. If you have any specific questions for me or just want to yell at me because you started DK Metcalf on my advice last week, feel free to reach out on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Details

We have reached the end of the first quarter of the season. If you have been following along all year then you could very well be sitting at the top of your season-long pool.

 


Plenty of season left to go though, so let’s keep the momentum going!

 

Week 5 – HERE WE GO!!!!

 

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

 

15 – PHILADELPHIA over New York Jets – The Eagles were able to pull out a win giving up over 400 passing yards last week. Now they play the Jets who are close to setting record lows for passing production. See what I’m getting at here?

 

14 – New England over WASHINGTON – The Steelers, Dolphins, Jets, Bills and now the Redskins…I have no idea how the Patriots have been able to stay undefeated!

 

13 – LOS ANGELES CHARGERS over Denver – How much longer does John Elway last in the Denver front office?

 

12 – KANSAS CITY over Indianapolis – After a close call last week, I think the Chiefs are just going to let loose. My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that PATRICK MAHOMES WILL THROW FOR AT LEAST 450 YARDS.

 

11 – NEW ORLEANS over Tampa Bay – Jameis Winston had a great game last week…which means he is due for at least 3 INTs this week.

 

10 – HOUSTON over Atlanta – Looks like this will be an off-year for the Falcons. Going to take a home game against the Dolphins for me to pick them at this point.

 

9 – TENNESSEE over Buffalo – With the NFL100 clips they have been showing, the number of times I have seen the Music City Miracle makes me not care about these two iterations of the Titans and Bills at all.

 

8 – Minnesota over NEW YORK GIANTS – I am all aboard the Daniel Jones train…but this will probably be the first bad game he’ll experience. It will be interesting to see how he bounces back next week.

 

7 – Chicago over OAKLAND – I sent a petition to the league asking for a temporary rule change to allow at least 14 offensive linemen to be on the field for the Raiders at a time for this game … still waiting to hear back.

 

6 – CAROLINA over Jacksonville – Who knew that one of the most intriguing quarterback matchups of the early season would be Kyle Allen vs Gardner Minshew?

 

5 –SEATTLE over Los Angeles Rams – I think its safe to say that our streak of solid Thursday Night games will continue this week! (Note – the streak is currently at 1…a three year high)

 

4 – Baltimore over PITTSBURGH – You can’t play the Bengals every week, Steelers.

 

3 – Cleveland over SAN FRANCISCO –A solid matchup that wouldn’t look that way a year ago (I feel like I’ll be saying that a lot for both the Browns and the 9ers)

 

2 – DALLAS over Green Bay – The Packers seem to have the Cowboys number, especially in Dallas, but I’ve got a hunch about this one. But, obviously, not a very strong hunch.

 

1 – CINCINNATI over Arizona – Welcome to the “If you pick them, put them on the 1-point line” club.

 

Details

 

For more in-depth analysis and discussion of these injury scenarios, tune in to the Fantasy Finish Line Podcast, Week 5 Preview: Moving right along..

 

QUARTERBACKS

Mitchell Trubisky (shoulder) – Yes, I’m calling him Mitchell. It’s the least I can do for a guy that is being outplayed by his backup Chase Daniel and is clearly not living up to expectations so far in 2019. The injury was to the left (non-throwing) shoulder and happened early in the game against the Vikings in Week 4. He was stretched out trying to recover a fumble with his left arm in front of him as a player from the opposing team landed on top of him with all their weight. The resulting injury to labrum was confirmed by an MRI and shouldn’t cause Trubisky to miss much more time but may force him to wear a shoulder brace for the rest of this season. Adam Schefter suggests that we’ll see Trubisky in Week 7, following the Bears’ week 6 bye. So far this year, Trubisky has thrown 3 TDs, all in the same game and all to Taylor Gabriel. He’s had 2 interceptions in that same time period. Trubisky provides an athletic element that Chase Daniel does not have, but he is performing at a very low level this year. Based on Daniel’s ability to run the Bears’ offense, Neither Trubisky’s absence nor his return should greatly affect the performance of skill-position players over the next few weeks.

Josh Allen (concussion) – The helmet-to-helmet hit that knocked Allen out of the game against the Patriots looked rough. Going up against the Titans on Sunday, Allen should have enough time to get healthy for the game, but it’s a situation to monitor. Otherwise, it’s Matt Barkley time against Tennessee and that’s not good for anyone in Buffalo.

Gardner Minshew (knee) – Minshew was limited in practice (Wednesday) with a knee injury but there’s currently no reason to think that will affect him suiting up against the Panthers on Sunday. Minshew mania is still alive and kicking.

 

RUNNING BACKS

Jamaal Williams (concussion) – Williams was hit violently last Thursday and taken off the field on a spine board. He did not practice today (Wednesday) and it’s likely that Aaron Jones will get the lion’s share of work whether or not Williams is able to practice later this week. It’s nice that he’ll get some extra time to go through the concussion protocol since he was injured on Thursday Night Football in Week 4, but there aren’t any other RBs on the depth chart currently that are worth discussion.

Marlon Mack (ankle) – Mack had an ankle injury in Week 4 but was able to return to the game for snaps still after originally coming off the field. After the game he said that he would play in Week 5 vs. Kansas City, but newsflash: it’s not up to Mack. He did not practice today (Wednesday), so he’ll need to practice sometime later this week in order to suit up. Jordan Wilkins (3% owned) has been more than serviceable in short yardage situations in the past (averaging 5.6 YPC in 2018), and Nyheim Hines (20% owned) has proven that he can be a PPR asset as long as he is out there for enough snaps (63 receptions for 425 yards on 81 targets last year). Especially going up against Kansas City, there could be fantasy value available on the wire here for teams with injury problems or bye-week issues if Mack can’t get healthy.

Tevin Coleman (ankle) – Coleman (70% owned) has been trucking around in a walking boot for a few weeks now, but it appears that he’ll practice this week and so he may suit up as early as Week 5 against the Browns on Monday Night Football. A high-ankle sprain carries a usual timetable of 2-6 weeks depending on severity, so this is all within the realm of possibility. During his absence, we’ve seen all of the 49ers running backs (Matt Brieda (82% owned), Raheem Mostert (29% owned), Jeff Wilson (6% owned)) putting up yards and touchdowns, but it’s likely that some clarity will return to the backfield situation with both Coleman and Breida healthy.  

 

WIDE RECEIVERS

Davante Adams (toe) – 10 passes for 180 yards, what a spectacular night for Adams against the Eagles. He did, however, injure his right big toe quite severely by getting it caught in the turf. Turf toe has several grades of severity and according to the reports that I’ve read from experts in the medical field as well as beat reporters close to the team, we’re looking at an absence of 2-4 weeks. That may put Adams back in play in Week 8 or 9 if recovery goes well. In the meantime, Marquez Valdes-Scantling (70% owned) and Geronimo Allison (32% owned) will certainly see more snaps, but neither is particularly exciting. Way under-the-radar is Jake Kumerow (0% owned), who just started practicing in full after an injury earlier this season, has only logged 9 receptions in the NFL, but has shown a lot of chemistry with Rodgers and is technically Adams’ direct backup. Hey, if you want to throw caution to the wind...

Christian Kirk (ankle) – A right ankle sprain has sidelined Kirk which is not great news for fantasy owners after enjoying a considerable number of targets consistently from QB Kyler Murray. As Kirk will likely miss at least 1-2 weeks for a low-grade ankle sprain and Damiere Byrd (hamstring) is also not likely to suit up against the Bengals, it looks like Larry Fitzgerald and Keesean Johnson (1% owned) will see their targets increase so both will be viable fantasy players this week along with David Johnson, of course. Look out for Andy Isabella (1% owned) who has been pushed down the depth chart so far this year but has the tools and talent to show up as soon as he becomes a major part of the offense. Could be soon.

Jarvis Landry (concussion) – Landry had his biggest day ever last week but went out with a concussion in the second half. Keep watch to see if he’ll be able to play or not, the Browns play on Monday Night Football and they could certainly use another sure-handed receiver.

Kenny Stills (hamstring) – Stills was becoming one of Watson’s favorite targets after being traded to the Texans from Miami earlier this year. Soft tissue injuries like these will sometimes take a while to heal, and although he did eclipse Keke Coutee (17% owned) on the depth chart while Coutee was battling injury, the reverse may happen now as Coutee is healthy. Don’t sleep on a guy that was a standout for some of last year and has shown great chemistry with Deshaun Watson. Going up against the Falcons, Coutee could have 100+ yards if Stills sits this one out.

 

TIGHT ENDS

T.J. Hockenson (concussion) – Hockenson looked great last week as he pulled in a TD and 27 yards early in the game against the Chiefs, but he later fell hard on his head and shoulder after attempting to leap over an opponent and suffered a concussion. The latest news from Adam Schefter is that he won’t be put on the IR, but there’s no estimate on his return to the practice field. I’d count him out, possibly for a few weeks. We’ll know more after the Lions’ bye week.

Details

I can't be the only one wondering how the Giants were the only home team to win out of all the early games on Sunday(8). Even the Eagles' TNF victory over the Packers was a road win, which was originally predicted to go in the favor of the home team. Not until the Bears' mid-afternoon victory over the Vikings, did another home squad manage a triumph. Out of 15 contests this past weekend, the home teams finished 4-11. What does this mean about the NFL? What does this say about your overall skill at picking winners? Actually, this past week was a fluke, best erased from memory. Trying to make sense of it all and spending too much time re-assessing your techniques, is not a good habit to get into, especially after a week in which the results are particularly abnormal. Highly unlikely outcomes will usually equate to normalcy in the immediate future. So, what we learn from all this in a nutshell is, don't follow the patterns of victory(because there are none), and don't put all your eggs in one weekly basket.

 

 

NICK'S PICKS:

 

SEA -1.5  The Seahawks are great at running the ball and Russell Wilson ain't too shabby throwing the pigskin, as well as his fancy footwork, which he often brings to the table. The Rams have been showing some hiccups on defense the last couple of weeks and if they can't get Todd Gurley going in the ground game, the offense will start to look one-dimensional. Even great games from Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods and 500+ yards passing from Jared Goff couldn't save Los Angeles from losing at home last week against a week Tampa Bay defense. Seattle also seems to have momentum building. Besides, the word around town is that Russell Wilson heats up as the season progresses. 

 

CHI -5  Being from Chicagoland, I almost always never wager on action involving the Bears. Nothing personal, I just seem to get burned more times than not. However, after seeing their defense so far this season, I'm definitely going to pay attention to their game lines more consistently. I really don't think Chicago will put up that many points, especially with backup Chase Daniel getting the start. But, season starter and now injured QB Mitchell Trubisky is another reason I'm willing to wager on the Bears. I feel that the backup can and will do more for his team than the injured starter even if healthy, who is still early in his development. And if Chicago can get David Montgomery more involved in the run game, then they should be just fine. Oakland is a young, hit or miss mess, who I feel needs another season to grow with head coach Jon Gruden before action can be put down in their favor.

 

KC -11  The Chiefs are at home this coming week, but this time it's against a much weaker opponent than the Detroit Lions, who made week 4's contest very close. The Colts are next up on the list of teams to get exploited by aerial artisan, Patrick Mahomes... who actually happened to throw for zero TDs(if you can believe it) in the win over the Lions. Indianapolis is a middle of the road team, especially with WR T.Y. Hilton still nursing a bum hammy and on the questionable list. Starting QB Jacoby Brissett is basically surrounded by young, unproven talent at the WR position. Listen, Kansas City's offense is most likely one of the 3 best in the league. They are always a safe play for moneyline action, especially when included in parlays. Although, when it comes to spreads, their 'middle of the road' defense will be the deciding factor, as it comes down to the strength of the offense they will be facing. You maybe asking yourself, "Hey, isn't that the case with any game involving any team?". Well, when a team averages over 30 points of offense per week, it should automatically give you more confidence to risk hard-earned money, as odds will then usually tend to help instead of harm. This is also a reasonable point spread for a powerhouse team playing at home against the league's run-of-the-mill.

 

 

NICK'S NIX PICKS(stay away from these games if you like your $$$):

 

(GB +3.5 / DAL -3.5)  Will the real Dak Prescott please stand up?

 

(DEN +6.5 / LAC -6.5)  I still think Joe Flacco is a bum and Philip Rivers usually doesn't play well against the Broncos.

 

(CLE +3.5 / SF -3.5)  The Brown's RB Nick Chubb is coming off a great game against the Ravens, but the 49ers haven't allowed a rushing TD yet this season.

 

(ATL +5 / HOU -5)  Both teams have more than capable QBs and WRs. Both teams have defensive secondarys that suck. A shootout that will come down to big plays.

 

 

NICK'S ULTRA MONEYLINE PARLAY PICKS:

 

(PHI -704 / KC -565 / BAL -173)

 

(CHI -234 / SEA -124 / ARI +148)

 

 

CON-MAN CONFIDENCE(you can't get what I'm selling anywhere else):

 

* = WINNER

 

NEP* - 16 - WAS

IND   - 15 - KC*

NYJ   - 14 - PHI*

CLE   - 13 - SF*

MIN* - 12 - NYG

CHI* - 11 - OAK

ARI* - 10 - CIN

GB    - 09 - DAL*

BAL* - 08 - PIT

LAR  - 07 - SEA*

BUF  - 06 - TEN*

DEN  - 05 - LAC*

TB*  - 04 - NOS

ATL  - 03 - HOU*

JAX  - 02 - CAR*

 

 

 

 

 

Details

Wow, week 4 threw us a serious knuckleball (wrong sport, I know!) with unexpected performances to coincide with the many upsets on Sunday. But we're made of stronger stuff than that - let's regroup and try to figure out where the pieces may fall in the coming weeks. In Week 5 we're looking at Frank Gore, Jaylen Samuels, Jarvis Landry, and Mike Williams as being better than expected based on their matchups and trends.

 

Pay attention to these rankings throughout the week, as they will continue to evolve based on the latest injury updates, news, and player/matchup analysis. Good luck this season and remember, you can tweet us @drinkfive with any of your lineup questions!

 

 

 

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