Fantasy Football / NFL

Details: Written by Tad Bukowski; Created: 12 December 2019

It’s hard to believe that we are just a few weeks away from the end of the season. Only a few more chances to lock down that top spot in your season long pool.

But, if you have been using our picks all year, you should be at the top as it is. And if you haven’t, well, you’ll learn for next season I guess!

Week 15 – HERE WE GO!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

16 – BALTIMORE over New York Jets – The Jets have been looking solid lately…that will all come to a screeching halt this week.
15 – GREEN BAY over Chicago – Re-read what I just wrote but replace Jets with Bears.
14 – New England over CINCINNATI – Video taping…the Bengals? The Patriots are seriously just cheating for the fun of it at this point!
13 – SAN FRANCISCO over Atlanta –The 9ers confirmed their NFC dominance in New Orleans last week – a home game against the Falcons will be a nice breather for them.
12 – Seattle over CAROLINA – At the beginning of the year this could have been a potential NFC Championship preview. Now…not so much.
11 – KANSAS CITY over Denver – It’s odd to have a little doubt in my mind that I have the Chiefs too high against the Drew Lock-led Broncos.
10 – TENNESSEE over Houston – This will be part one of the Titans assertion as this year’s AFC South Champions…
9 – NEW ORLEANS over Indianapolis – …and this is part two! My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that THE TITANS WILL WIN THE AFC SOUTH.
8 – Minnesota over LOS ANGELES CHARGERS – I would be more reluctant to put the Vikings so high in this road game…but with such a bad fan base, is there really such thing as a road game against the Chargers?
7 – OAKLAND over Jacksonville – It’s been a rough stretch for the Raiders which has taken them out of the playoff picture. This week, though, they’ll be pushed by the emotions of playing the last game in Oakland …well…until they move back in 15-20 years.
6 – PITTSBURGH over Buffalo – There are just so many reasons why this being a potential Game of the Week is a huge surprise – lucky for the Steelers the game is in Pittsburgh.
5 – DALLAS over Los Angeles Rams – I honestly don’t know what to say about the battle of disappointment.
4 – ARIZONA over Cleveland – Speaking of disappointment, a season full of disappointment will soon end for the Browns.
3 – Tampa Bay over DETROIT – Tampa is playing like a team that knows their season is over, but they have pride. The Lions are not.
2 – NEW YORK GIANTS over Miami – Eli almost pulled out a win in his return to the field last week. He’ll more than be able to handle it this week.
1 – WASHINGTON over Philadelphia – As we know, if we think the Redskins will win, we keep it on the one-point line.

Details: Written by David Biggs; Created: 10 December 2019

Here's lookin' at you, kid! If you're back here again this week I can safely assume that you have something to play for in Week 15. The amount of impactful injuries and subsequent IR designations are almost overwhelming this week, but we'll get through them. Remember that picking the right players each week is the only thing that you really have control over on a week-to-week basis, after the draft and trade deadline have passed. Popping back on my radar this week with rankings that exceed the projections of other experts are James Conner, Mike Williams, Darius Slayton, Jacob Hollister, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I hope to see you back here next Tuesday for Championship Week rankings!

Pay attention to these rankings throughout the week, as they will continue to evolve based on the latest injury updates, news, and player/matchup analysis. Good luck this season and remember, you can tweet us @drinkfive with any of your lineup questions!

2019 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyProsECR ™ - Expert Consensus Rankings

Details: Written by Jason Evans; Created: 09 December 2019

statistically insignificant header image

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring unless otherwise noted.

43 Yards from Scrimmage

On Sunday, Alvin Kamara put up 43 total yards, while his team put up 46 total points – to call this a disappointment is a massive understatement. Kamara’s entire season has been a flop, really. He’s only scored 2 TDs on the year, both of them in Week 3. He’s only averaging 8.1 points per game since the Saints came off the bye and he returned from injury. During this time, the Saints have put up at least 26 points in 4 games, and they’re just not using Kamara. He needs to remain on your bench if you don’t want to be disappointed again through the fantasy playoffs. Meanwhile, the rest of the Saints were feasting in their loss to the 49ers. Drew Brees led the week at QB with 40 points, and Michael Thomas added 11 receptions to his amazing season total. Thomas now has 121 catches, which is almost 30 more than the 2^nd highest total, to go along with a league leading 1,424 yards. All these crazy numbers, and the Saints didn’t even win the game.

2 of the Top 3 WRs

This week’s top performing WRs were not the most popular guys of the week. Leading the way was AJ Brown (26% owned) for the Titans, he averaged 30 yards per catch and put up 28.6 in standard leagues. His 91-yard touchdown had the Titans going early and was a sign of good things to come for those of us who rolled the dice on Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill, meanwhile, kept the Titans offense rolling – they’re averaging 31.4 points per game since he took over the starting job. But I digress, back to the WRs. Emmanuel Sanders had a stellar game, scoring a 75-yard TD and throwing another. Sanders was started in only 31% of Yahoo leagues. Rounding out the top 3 was Diontae Johnson (12% Owned) of the Steelers. Johnson scored on a punt return and later on a 2-yard pass from Duck Hodges. Johnson was basically responsible for half of the Steelers points in their win over the Cardinals.

17.75 Yards per Touch

Austin Ekeler did all kinds of damage on Sunday, and he wasn’t even a workhorse back. Ekeler was in on only 49% of offensive snaps, and in 12 touches he managed 213 yards from scrimmage. He’s having an amazing year, currently the RB6, his ADP was RB27. He’s leading all RBs in receiving yards, and his 73 receptions are tied for 11^th among all players in the NFL. Ekeler is averaging 1.04 fantasy points per touch in standard leagues, and an amazing 1.44 yards per touch in PPR scoring. The Chargers punked the Jaguars and are now outscoring their opponents 75-20 when playing in Florida this year. Lucky for the Bucs, they don’t have the Chargers on the schedule. Hell, the Chargers even got Tyrod Taylor in on the action – he completed 5 passes and threw for a touchdown.

7 Made Field Goals

It was a day for kickers to swing your fantasy playoffs one way or another. For the Dolphins, Jason Sanders was 100% of their offense, converting on 7 of his 8 field goal attempts, kicking 243 yards of field goals. His one missed FG is the difference in the game, as the Dolphins only managed the 21 points provided by Sanders. Overall, Sanders put up 24 fantasy points, good for the 14^th highest score of the week. Younghoe Koo also had a great game, scoring 18 fantasy points of his own – he’s averaging 12.6 points per game since Week 10 and even recovered a fumble on Sunday. We also saw Will Lutz and Robbie Gould put up 13 each in a ridiculous duel that saw 94 total points scored. In that match, both teams surpassed the Vegas over/under line, which opened at 45.

26 TDs and 23 INTs

Jameis Winston had another huge game on Sunday, in both number of scores and turnovers. For the third time this season, he started the game with a pick on his very first pass. Still, it would up being a ridiculous game for Winston, who put up a season-high 456 yards and 37.74 fantasy points. His season totals of 26 TD and 23 INT are pretty ridiculous, and he could wind up being the first player to break the 30 and 30 threshold. It’s anybody’s guess where he winds up playing next year, it could be the Bucs, but it’s just as likely to be somewhere else. Either way, Winston is likely to be the most volatile player worth watching, after all, he’s the QB5 on the year – second in both passing yards and passing touchdowns.

Details: Written by Tad Bukowski; Created: 05 December 2019

Welcome to the Fantasy Football Playoff Season!

For more than 50% of players, this means that your season is…well…over! Well that’s kind of a bummer!

Have no fear though, the Confidence Pool has no playoffs! Even if you are sitting in the bottom of your league long standings (which you shouldn’t be if you have been following along here!) you still have a chance at a payout every week!

Week 14 – HERE WE GO!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

16 – MINNESOTA over Detroit – Hopefully, for the Lions 2020 hopes, this will be the nail in the coffin that puts Matthew Stafford on the IR.

15 – PHILADELPHIA over New York Giants – Eli’s back! Should help Saquon be Saquon again…but it won’t be enough in Philly.

14 – GREEN BAY over Washington – It’s been a while since we have seen a big yardage day from Aaron Rodgers. So, my BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that AARON RODGERS WILL THROW FOR AT LEAST 400 YARDS THIS WEEK.

13 – HOUSTON over Denver – The Texans need to win to keep pace with the Colts and Titans. The Broncos need to focus on getting a high draft pick.

12 – NEW YORK JETS over Miami – It was only a month ago when the Dolphins beat the Jets for their first win, but this seems like a different Jets team.

11 –Pittsburgh over ARIZONA –This Steelers team seems like a good candidate for a Disney movie the way they still win after losing so much.

10 – OAKLAND over Tennessee – The Raiders need this game and they know it. Look for Derek Carr to bounce back in a big way.

9 – Dallas over CHICAGO – Can’t play the Lions every week, Bears!

8 – CLEVELAND over Cincinnati – Baker is hurt for the Browns but, I means, they’re playing the Bengals.

7 – ATLANTA over Carolina – If you listened to the DrinkFive podcast this week, you know my feelings on picking Falcons games.

6 – TAMPA BAY over Indianapolis – We’ll make this our Hunch of the Week.'

5 – Seattle over LOS ANGELES RAMS – These two teams have basically flipped roles from where they were last year.

4 – Kansas City over NEW ENGLAND – Remember last year’s AFC Championship game? So do the Chiefs!

3 – JACKSONVILLE over Los Angeles Chargers – This game will happen. Maybe it will be exciting – who knows?

2 – San Francisco over NEW ORLEANS – Is it me, or do the Saints lack the dominance factor when they play in the Dome lately?

1 – BUFFALO over Baltimore – This should be a good one and I think the Bills can find a way to pull out the upset.

Details: Written by David Biggs; Created: 05 December 2019

QUARTERBACK

Matthew Stafford (fractured back) – Just checking in, Matt. It’s been 4 weeks since he’s been out there and since then the over-performing Jeff Driskel was sent to IR. The Lions are 3-8-1 and eliminated from the playoffs, so what’s the reason that Stafford is still around? Really, I feel like the Lions are just afraid to slap an IR tag on Stafford because that officially means that they are done. Does anyone think that Stafford will make more starts this year? I don’t.

Daniel Jones(moderate high-ankle sprain) – While you can recover from a more common lateral ankle sprain in less than a week, the usual recovery time for a high-ankle sprain can take as long as 6 weeks. A milder variety may take a couple of weeks if everything is going well and it seems like that’s what Jones has been diagnosed with here. As the Giants are currently 2-10, they are certainly in no danger of making the playoffs and the organization will want to take it easy with their future QB. All of this means that for the next few weeks, the man under center for the Giants will be none other than Eli Manning. What will the reintroduction of Manning do for the offense? It will likely bring with it more check downs to Barkley, lots of shorter passes, and a veteran presence that is able to mitigate some of the turnovers that the Giants were experiencing with Jones. That said, Manning was also turning over the ball at the beginning of the year, throwing 2 passing TDs but also 2 interceptions and responsible for 2 fumbles, all in just 2 games. Ultimately, I’m looking at Barkley and Engram as slightly upgraded and the rest as being an unpredictable mess. Best of luck with it!

Baker Mayfield (hand) – Mayfield smashed his throwing hand against Pittsburgh pass rusher Bud Dupree’s facemask on a long bomb downfield against the Steelers in Week 13. He went for X-Rays (which came back negative) and returned to finish the game with a glove on. As of Wednesday’s practice, his hand was heavily taped and he did not throw any passes. When he spoke to the media he revealed that he hasn’t thrown a pass since last Sunday, after the game. While it doesn’t yet seem like Mayfield will miss Week 14’s matchup against the Bengals – keep an eye out to make sure that Mayfield is a full participant in practice later this week.

RUNNING BACKS

Dalvin Cook (Shoulder) – Cook was forced to leave Monday Night Football after suffering an injury to his shoulder. This is an extremely high-profile injury because Cook was second in points among all running backs, to only Christian McCaffrey. We’re hearing a few things here. First, this was apparently not a shoulder injury at all, but rather an aggravation oh his pre-existing chest injury and a possible issue with his clavicle. Cook says, “I’ll be out there on Sunday”, and that may be true – but there is a strong possibility that he is either held out or limited, with rookie Alexander Mattison absorbing more snaps in Cook’s absence. The Vikings’ upcoming opponents Detroit (Week 14) and Green Bay (Week 16) both have bottom of the barrel defenses against the run. Whoever leads the backfield on Minnesota will certainly be a RB1/2. Watch this situation closely and I hope you were able to land Mattison if you are also a Cook owner. If for some reason he is still available out there on the wire, scoop him up!

Matt Breida (ankle) – Breida is practicing Wednesday and should play against New Orleans this weekend. Raheem Mostert was a monster against the Ravens last week, putting up 146 yards on 19 carries. With Tevin Coleman’s usage waning, this could mean a shakeup in the depth chart with Breida and Mostert on top for the rest of the season. Maybe. We need more time to flesh out this situation, but one thing is for sure – Mostert will continue to be utilized in this 3-headed run game after that performance.

Jordan Howard (shoulder) – The Eagles play on Monday Night Football this week, so Howard has a little extra time to get right. He hasn’t yet been cleared for contact but is expected to practice this week. In the meantime, Miles Sanders has taken over the bellcow role on the Eagles and gets a lot of work in the passing game, making him a solid RB2 for as long as this kind of volume stays consistent. If Howard was to come back, both would simply be FLEX plays and hard to count on.

James Conner(shoulder) – Pittsburgh has won 6 of their last 7 games heading into this weekend and will be doing everything they can to try and get their lead running back on the field against Arizona. For the first time in weeks, Conner put in a limited practice on Wednesday which raises hopes for him to practice in full Thursday or Friday and resume his normal role in the offense. That would be great for Conner owners, but if he is unable overcome his current limitations, Benny Snell Jr. will be a great RB2/3 in a matchup against the Cardinals, who have allowed the 10^th most fantasy points to RBs this season, at 23. Snell is averaging about 18 attempts for 80 yards and .5 TDs in relief of Conner. He does not have a role in the passing game, however, that will belong almost completely to Jaylen Samuel.

Damien/Darrel Williams (ribs/hamstring) – Looks like Damien has a better shot at suiting up for this week’s dance with the Patriots than Darrel does, but both have yet to practice so far this week. The Chiefs backfield is getting pretty messy lately, with rookie Darwin Thompson putting up 44 yards and 1 TD on 11 carries, and former Chief Spencer Ware also getting signed (likely as a direct answer to the injuries that we’re seeing weekly). Darwin is an interesting play if neither of the Williams’ boys end up healthy this weekend, but it’s just as likely that a rotation of backs removes predictable fantasy value from any of these guys.

Kalen Ballage (leg) – With Ballage off to IR, the Dolphins claimed Zach Zenner off waivers and they also have 2^nd year Patrick Laird and rookie Myles Gaskin. It may seem tempting to bet on a horse here, but my suggestion is to avoid the situation entirely.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Julio Jones (shoulder) – Jones was a game-time decision last week but did not end up suiting up to close out the Thanksgiving football games. Instead, 2^nd year WR Russell Gage filled in and ended up with 5 receptions for 52 yards and 1 TD. He has been involved in the passing game even before Julio’s injury, ever since Sanu was traded to the Patriots. An interesting flex play or bench stash, he may not factor in heavily this week as Jones is already practicing in a limited fashion. Coach Dan Quinn expects him to play with no issues against the Panthers… who, by the way, have been giving up huge game to opposing WRs lately.

John Ross (clavicle) – Ross is back, and with Dalton under center. The Bengals are showing signs of life, believe it or not. It’s been an interesting story for him this year, as the injury he suffered in Week 4’s loss against the Steelers was almost life-threatening. Apparently, the sternoclavicular joint in Ross’ chest was just an inch away from puncturing an artery. He has made a full recovery, though, and the field-spreading speedster will most likely be back out there against the Browns on Sunday. As to whether it’s a smart move or not to start him in his first game back after being on IR for most of the season? Nah. Probably not. But hey, sometimes we don’t have the luxury of very many choices, and this is definitely a choice.

T.Y. Hilton (calf) – Hilton’s calf injury is lingering and at this point even he is thinking about shutting it down for the season. “If I can, I can.” He said. “If I can’t, then might just shut it down.” Rough stuff for the Colts, who are in desperate need of playmakers after losing Ebron (IR) and Mack (hand) recently as well. Marlon Mack is back at practice this week, though, and is aiming to play in Week 14’s game against the Bucs. I don’t see Hilton suiting up this week, or anytime soon, and in the meantime, there is always Zach Pascal, who will be a boom or bust replacement for Hilton. Last week against the Titans he exploded for 109 yards on 7 receptions. There just aren’t that many targets out there on the offense. Pretty much Pascal, Doyle, and whatever RB may be hanging around the line of scrimmage.

Adam Thielen (hamstring) – Bad news for Thielen: it looks like his injured (and then aggravated) hamstring is not getting any better. There are whispers of this being related to the same hamstring injury that he had several years ago, as well. He was practicing last week before being ruled out for the game, and this week he is not practicing so far. I think it’s likely that some sort of regression occurred, and he may be shut down for a few weeks. If that’s the case, there’s not a very good substitute on this team for Thielen’s production. Bisi Johnson hasn’t had a game above 43 yards all year and there is no one else to speak of in their WR corps. Those targets usually end up being absorbed by Kyle Rudolph, Irv Smith Jr., and the RBs.

Taylor Gabriel (concussion) – Gabriel remains in the league’s concussion protocol, and since he’s been out Anthony Miller has seen a resurgence since his poor early performance in the season. With over 6 receptions in each of the last 3 games, and a great performance which included 9 receptions for 140 yards against Detroit on Thanksgiving Day, Miller is due for a TD. Remember last year? He’s looking like that same guy finally. Quite an interesting play this week against Dallas. Allen Robinson has also been performing well for the Bears… is this Trubisky late-season magic? Or just some talented receivers hitting their stride? Who cares, I’m taking the points.

TIGHT ENDS

TJ Hockenson (ankle) – Moved to IR, Hockensen started off the year with a bang, but quickly regressed to mediocre TE status when he realized that he was just a rookie tight end and they usually take a few years to develop to that level in the NFL. The Lions are now left at the position with former Steeler Jesse James catching passes from the 3^rd string QB, David Blough. Yikes.

Austin Hooper (knee) – Hooper has been out since Nov. 10 against the Saints, but he practiced on Wednesday in a limited capacity and has a chance to suit up in Week 14 against the Panthers. Hopefully you kept Hooper on your roster because the TE position is thin this year, and Hooper is an immediate top-5 start if he’s healthy, regardless of matchup. Another one to watch this week.

Greg Olsen (concussion)–Suffering a gnarly concussion in the Panthers Week 13 loss to the Redskins, Olsen may be out for a week or two. His backup, Ian Thomas, is a very talented 2^nd year TE that can put up numbers in fantasy. Filling in for Olsen, he quickly had 4 receptions for 24 yards. Does your TE depth have you down? Thomas may just be the answer to your prayers!

Details: Written by Shawn Foss; Created: 05 December 2019

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve made it to the fantasy playoffs. Hopefully you were lucky enough that you get to take the week off, but if you made the playoffs and have to play this week, it’s hard to not put extra weight into every lineup decision you make. This year’s rookie crop has felt more volatile than most other classes, but that may just be because there are so many of them that have been fantasy contributors this year. We head into week 14 with 7 rookie QBs slated to start (if Daniel Jones is able to play). There are 3 rookie RBs among the top-20 in PPR points, 6 WRs in the top-43, and countless other skill players that have been useful as spot starters when injuries opened the door, and plenty more who are likely to do damage in the fantasy playoffs. Let’s dive in and talk about what to do with your rookies this week…

Rookies to Start:

RB Miles Sanders, PHI (Wk. 14: vs. NYG): The Giants have done a nice job of limiting RB production in recent weeks, but I’m betting on Sanders’ usage and the fact the Eagles are favored by 8 and a half points here. Sanders has seen 40 carries and 14 targets in the last 3 weeks and has averaged about 80 scrimmage yards per contest, and the Eagles lost all those games. I expect the Eagles to run a bit more this week if they play from ahead as expected. There is a chance that Jordan Howard returns this week, and if that happens Sanders gets a slight downgrade and would be closer to a borderline option. If Howard sits again, Miles should be a solid RB2.

david montgomery

RB David Montgomery, CHI (Wk. 14: vs. Dal.): Montgomery came through for fantasy players who trusted him enough to start him last week on Thanksgiving, and I like his chances to return value again this week. The Cowboys’ defense has been banged up, missing their starting nose tackle Antwaun Woods and their defensive leader in linebacker Leighton Vander Esch this week. Montgomery continues to see consistent usage with 15+ touches in 6 straight games. His production hasn’t always matched that usage, but Mitch Trubisky has been playing better of late and it is making the whole offense better. Dallas isn’t a defense to fear, ranking 17^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat and allowing the 15^th-most RB points per game. Montgomery should be a useful RB2 this week and is a reasonable $5,100 on DraftKings.

RB Josh Jacobs, OAK (Wk. 14: vs. Ten.): You can’t sit a player with Jacobs’ locked-in usage. He’s averaging 88 yards per game on the ground and has only been held under 70 three times in 12 games. I’d be nervous to roll him out in DFS lineups this week though. The Raiders have gone in the tank as a team the last couple weeks, losing by a combined score of 74-12 in their past 2 games. It was a problem for Jacobs against the Jets, but he bounced back with a 100-yard day in a blowout loss against Kansas City. The Chiefs rank 30^th in run defense DVOA. The Titans rank 4^th. If the Raiders continue the trend of getting blown out, this could be a disappointing fantasy day for Jacobs. Oakland is a 2 and a half-point underdog though, so if they keep it competitive Jacobs should see enough work to be just fine.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Kyler Murray, ARI (Wk. 14: vs. Pit.): Murray had been playing at an improved level recently, but week 12 was a bit of a hiccup. He was able to salvage his day with a rushing score, but he gets a rough matchup again this week. The Steelers have been one of the best pass defenses in the league since acquiring Minkah Fitzpatrick. They’ve held 7 of the 10 QBs they’ve faced since the trade to fewer than 200 passing yards, and Murray has thrown for fewer than 250 in 5 of his last 6 games. He’s been able to keep his fantasy numbers up with touchdowns and rushing yards (he has 9 total TDs in his past 4 games and averaged 42 rushing yards per week in them), but I’d be hesitant to trust him in this matchup as a QB1. The Steelers rank 4^th in pass defense DVOA.

gardner minshew

QB Gardner Minshew, JAX (Wk. 14: vs. LAC): I learned my lesson with Minshew early in the season. If he’s starting, he’s in play as a QB2 even in tougher matchups. The Chargers allow the 7^th-fewest QB points per game and just got Derwin James back last week, but they also rank 22^nd in pass defense DVOA. The Chargers have allowed at least 1 passing TD to every QB they’ve faced except Mitch Trubisky. The reason they rank so highly at limiting QB points is because they are also bad against the run and often are playing from behind. I wouldn’t expect Minshew to approach 300 yards, but he usually finds his way to the middle of the QB2 ranks.

RB Devin Singletary, BUF (Wk. 14: vs. Bal.): I’d lean towards playing Singletary this week, but it’s worth noting that the Ravens allow the 7^th-fewest PPR points to opposing RBs. With that said, the best way to attack the Ravens’ defense is with the ground game. Baltimore just allowed Raheem Mostert to run wild last Sunday, and they’ve struggled to contain the run game in other contests as well. Baltimore ranks just 25^th in run defense DVOA. It’s not an ideal matchup, but it isn’t one to run away from either if Singletary would usually be in your lineup. He’s the undisputed lead back for the Bills. He’s had at least 16 touches in each of the past 3 games and averaged 98 scrimmage yards and 13.5 PPR points per game in that stretch.

RB Alexander Mattison, MIN (Wk. 14: vs. Det.): Mattison became a hot waiver wire commodity this week after Dalvin Cook left Monday night’s game with a shoulder injury. It sounds as though Dalvin is likely to play this week, but I would expect a lot of Mattison. The Vikings are favored by 2 touchdowns against the hapless Lions who allow the 3^rd-most RB points per game. The biggest surprise from Monday’s game was how involved Mattison was in the passing game. The rookie actually tied for the team lead with 4 catches and turned them into 51 yards. I’d expect Mattison to handle most of the work this week even if Cook plays, and I think it’s likely he out-produces Dalvin. I’d be willing to consider him as a flex even if Cook is able to go, and he’ll likely be a steal at his DraftKings price of just $4,500.

RB Benny Snell Jr., PIT (Wk. 14: @Ari.): The Cardinals have been a better run defense than pass defense this year, but the Steelers are likely to lean on the ground game as usual since Devlin Hodges will be making just his 3^rd pro start. Snell has totaled 37 carries in the last 2 weeks and is likely to continue to see a healthy workload in this one with the Steelers favored by 2 and a half on the road. There is a chance that James Conner returns this week, and if he does that will certainly cut into Snell’s opportunities, but Mike Tomlin openly said that Snell has earned the right to stay in the rotation even when Conner comes back. The Cards allow the 9^th-most running back points per game and rank 16^th in run defense DVOA. Snell offers little as a receiver. He has just 3 catches on the year, so he’s a much better option in non-PPR formats. If Conner is out, I’d consider him a solid flex option outside of full-PPR leagues, but he is a bit dicier in PPR.

WR DK Metcalf, SEA (Wk. 14: @LAR): Metcalf has become an integral part of the Seahawks passing attack as the year has gone on. He’s averaged 7.7 targets, 4.7 catches, and 61.5 yards per game in his last 6 games. The 61% catch rate in those games is a 9% improvement on what he did in the first 6 weeks of the season. He’s developed a troubling fumbling habit with 3 fumbles lost in the past 6 games, but overall the arrow is pointing up for DK. This week’s matchup could include Metcalf squaring off with Jalen Ramsey, but my guess is that he will cover Tyler Lockett a fair amount as well. The Rams are a middling pass defense, allowing the 14^th-fewest points per game to wide receivers. They’ve let other big physical receivers have success against them this year (Mike Evans, Auden Tate, Miles Boykin, and Metcalf himself in the first meeting with the Rams). DK is in play as a WR3 this week.

WR Darius Slayton, NYG (Wk. 14: @Phi.): Slayton gets a plus matchup this week against the Eagles, who allow the 5^th-most WR points per game, but he also is likely to have a new QB under center and a more crowded pass catching group this week. Slayton didn’t record his first catch of the year until week 3, after the team had already made the switch to Daniel Jones. It remains to be seen if he’ll have the same connection with Eli. It’s also possible that Evan Engram and Golden Tate return this week. Slayton has had some productive games with Golden Tate in the lineup, but all 4 games where he saw more than 5 targets came with Evan Engram sidelined. If Engram and Tate both return, Slayton is a volatile WR3/flex option. If one or both sit, he becomes a much safer play.

WR Deebo Samuel, SF (Wk. 14: @NO): Samuel can’t be disregarded as a fantasy option after posting his 4^th straight game with 13+ PPR points last week in a less than ideal matchup in rainy Baltimore. He gets another difficult matchup this week in the Big Easy, but at least the weather won’t be an issue. It’s possible that Samuel draws the shadow coverage of Marshon Lattimore, the Saints’ best cover corner. New Orleans ranks an impressive 9^th in pass defense DVOA, but they’ve allowed the 10^th-most WR points per game. The bigger concern for Deebo is his target share. With George Kittle back on the field, Samuel was targeted just 6 times in the past 2 weeks. I’d look for him to be a bit more involved this week, but he’s still just an upside WR3 option with all the 49ers’ main receiving weapons healthy.

WR Marquise Brown, BAL (Wk. 14: @Buf.): Brown gets the unenviable opportunity to square off with TreDavious White’s shadow coverage this week. White has been a tough matchup for most of the receivers he’s faced, and the ones who have put up decent fantasy days against him have gotten there on volume rather than big plays. The Ravens are the run-heaviest team in the league, and the Bills rank 22^nd in run defense DVOA. That’s where they’re likely to attack Buffalo. I don’t expect big volume for Brown, so you’re hoping he cashes in a big play or 2 if you start him. The Bills have allowed the 9^th-fewest WR points per game and have given up just 3 pass plays of 40+ yards all year. Brown’s upside keeps him in consideration, but I’d have a hard time pulling the trigger this week.

TE Kaden Smith, NYG (Wk. 14: @Phi.): It appears that Evan Engram may return this week, but with the Giants playing to improve their draft position I wouldn’t expect them to push Engram back before he’s ready. If Engram doesn’t play, Smith should have plenty of opportunity again. He’s been targeted 14 times in the last 2 weeks and finished as the PPR TE4 and TE10 in those games. The Eagles aren’t an ideal matchup for tight ends, allowing the 9^th-fewest PPR points to the position per game, but they did give up 52 yards to Ben Watson in week 11 and a 5-79-1 line to Mike Gesicki last Sunday. No matter who is at QB, the Giants will keep their tight end involved. Smith will probably be a lower end TE1 this week if Engram is held out again. If you’re thinking about playing Engram, you should have Smith as a fallback option just in case.

Rookies to Sit:

QB David Blough, DET (Wk. 14: @Min.): Blough surprised us all on Turkey Day by throwing 2 first quarter touchdowns in his first NFL start. After tallying 131 yards and those two scores on his first 6 passing attempts, he managed just 149 yards and a pick on his other 32 attempts. I wouldn’t bank on a repeat with your season on the line. The Vikings rank just a middling 14^th in pass defense DVOA, but Blough’s best shot at a decent fantasy day will come from piling up stats in garbage time. The Lions are a 13-point underdog in this game and have an implied total of just 15 points.

QB Drew Lock, DEN (Wk. 14: @Hou.): Lock’s NFL debut was remarkably similar to David Blough’s. He put up the majority of his production in the 1^st quarter, when he completed 9 of 13 passes for 73 yards and 2 scores. He completed just 9 of 15 for 61 yards and an interception the rest of the game. The game plan for Lock is clearly to dink and dunk as evidenced by his sub-5 yards per attempt average. Unlike Blough, Lock gets a favorable matchup this week. The Texans allow the 6^th-most QB points per game and rank 25^th in pass defense DVOA. Lock could produce a nice day, but the conservative game plan will likely keep him from cashing in on a good matchup. I wouldn’t look at Lock as anything more than a desperation QB2 this week.

QB Dwayne Haskins, WAS (Wk. 14: @GB): There’s nothing to be excited about with Haskins this week, and likely for the rest of 2019. Through 4 starts, he’s averaging just 15 completions for 165 yards per game and has failed to throw a TD pass in 3 of them. The floor here is miserable, and we just haven’t seen any sort of ceiling yet, especially facing a Green Bay defense that allows the 9^th-fewest QB points per game.

QB Daniel Jones, NYG (Wk. 14: @Phi.): I mention Jones here just to make sure you’re aware that it’s highly unlikely that he plays this week. If he does get the chance to start, the Eagles aren’t as enticing a matchup as they appeared to be last week. Ryan Fitzpatrick shredded them for 365 yards and 3 scores, but no other QB had reached 250 yards or 3+ touchdowns against the Eagles since Kirk Cousins in week 6. Jones has been a turnover machine this year with 11 interceptions thrown and 9 fumbles lost in his 10 starts. He’d be no more than a low end QB2 if he does end up starting.

RB Darwin Thompson, KC (Wk. 14: @NE): It was nice to finally see Thompson get his opportunity last week with the Williamses banged up, and he made good on it by putting up 44 yards and a TD on 11 carries, but I’m not sold that it was more than just a 1-week flash in the pan. Much of Thompson’s work came with the game already out of hand, and the team signed Spencer Ware this week to add depth to their backfield. Head coach Andy Reid is really comfortable with Ware, and LeSean McCoy still figures to be the lead back if Darrel and Damien are both out. On top of that, the Patriots allow fewer RB points per game than any other team in the league. It all adds up to Thompson being a bit overhyped this week. I’d let someone else take that risk on Darwin.

RB Myles Gaskin, MIA (Wk. 14: @NYJ): After Kalen Ballage got hurt last week, it was the Patrick Laird show for Miami. Laird played 60% of the offensive snaps to Gaskin’s 22%. Laird is also clearly the guy the Dolphins prefer as a receiving back, out-targeting Gaskin 14 to 4 over the past 4 weeks. Gaskin is going to see more work going forward than he was seeing with Kalen Ballage healthy, but Laird is the Dolphin back to consider for fantasy purposes.

RB Tony Pollard, DAL (Wk. 14: @Chi.): Pollard has teased fantasy upside at times this season but has only turned in 2 useful weeks on the year. I wouldn’t be confident he makes it 3 this Thursday. He just doesn’t play enough to consider in any format this week with so many other options available. It doesn’t help his cause that he was also hit with a questionable tag this week. His status appears genuinely in doubt.

RB Ty Johnson, DET (Wk. 14: @Min.): The Detroit backfield has become the Bo Scarbrough show of late, and that has relegated Johnson to fantasy irrelevance. He continues to split 3^rd down work with JD McKissic, rendering both useless for fantasy purposes. There may be a little more work for the 3^rd down duo this week with the Lions a heavy underdog, but not enough to warrant fantasy consideration for either.

RB Darrell Henderson, LAR (Wk. 14: vs. Sea.): Henderson managed to get a handful of carries in last week’s blowout win, but I don’t expect him to see any work in what should be a closer game this week. Henderson totaled just 11 offensive snaps played in the 3 games prior to week 13.

WR Olabisi Johnson, MIN (Wk. 14: vs. Det.): Adam Thielen’s status seems to be uncertain once again this week, and Johnson continues to play a significant role in the offense with him out, but the Vikings have begun to lean even more heavily on 2-TE sets lately than usual. Both Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith played 85% of the offensive snaps last Monday while Bisi played just 56%, his lowest share since week 6. He’s even begun to split some of the WR2 snaps with Laquon Treadwell. With Minnesota favored by 2 touchdowns this week, I’d expect similar personnel usage as the Vikings lean heavily on the run game. You could make an argument that Johnson is a sneaky upside DFS option. The Lions allow the 7^th-most WR points per game, Stefon Diggs is likely to be shadowed by Darius Slay, and Johnson’s price tag is just $3,700 on DraftKings. He’s seen similar situations several times in the last few weeks though and hasn’t reached 45 receiving yards in any game this season. The last time the Vikings faced Detroit, Bisi put up 4-40-1 on 8 targets. It was his best fantasy game of the season, but without the TD it wouldn’t have been very useful.

WRs Terry McLaurin & Kelvin Harmon, WAS (Wk. 14: @GB): Haskins has torpedoed the value of any receivers that he throws to with his limited passing production. McLaurin’s 2 catches for 8 yards last week should be all you need to see to know you can’t trust him with your season on the line. Harmon has shown some value as a low upside PPR target with 11 catches for 147 yards over the last 3 weeks, but there are safer options out there for this all-important week.

WRs N’Keal Harry & Jakobi Meyers, NE (Wk. 14: vs. KC): With the Patriots back at full strength at wide receiver last week, N’Keal Harry saw his snap share drop precipitously. Meyers still played 70% of the snaps and drew 7 targets against Houston, but I think it’s likely New England was easing Mohamed Sanu back from what was originally supposed to be a multi-week injury. I’d expect Sanu to play a bit more this week. If you want to roll the dice on Meyers’ usage continuing this week, keep in mind that the Chiefs rank 6^th in pass defense DVOA and allow the 3^rd-fewest WR points per game. The only place I’d be considering Meyers this week would be in DFS tournaments, where he’ll cost just $3,500 on DraftKings.

WR Mecole Hardman, KC (Wk. 14: @NE): Mecole failed to see a single target in a matchup against one of the most burnable secondaries in the league last week. I’d look for the Chiefs to try and get him more involved this week, but I’m not confident he finds a way to fantasy relevance against a Patriots defense that has allowed just 2 offensive touchdowns in 5 games at Gillette Stadium. Hardman will need a touchdown to be fantasy relevant, and he’s not a great bet to find one.

WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside, PHI (Wk. 14: vs. NYG): Arcega-Whiteside did get into the end zone for the first time in his career on Sunday, but he saw his snap count cut in half with the returns of Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor. He split WR3 duties with Greg Ward and was targeted just twice. With fantasy seasons on the line, there’s no reason to read into that TD that his usage is going to increase. He’s caught just 5 passes all year and shouldn’t be on your radar this week.

WRs Andy Isabella & KeeSean Johnson, ARI (Wk. 14: vs. Pit.): Isabella & Johnson continue to be afterthoughts in the Cardinals’ passing game. Isabella seemed to be breaking out with back-to-back strong games a few weeks ago, but he’s tallied just 1 catch for 6 yards on 5 targets over the last 2 weeks. Johnson didn’t play a single snap in the loss to the Rams. Both should be afterthoughts for you too as you consider fantasy options this week.

TE Irv Smith Jr., MIN (Wk. 14: vs. Det.): Like his teammate Olabisi, Irv’s best fantasy game of the year came in the Vikings’ first meeting with Detroit. He’s trended towards being a full-time player over the last few weeks, seeing his snap share climb from 61% to 74% to 81% to 85% over the last 4 games. He’s been targeted at least 3 times in 6 straight contests, but I can’t recommend him with your season on the line. As long as he’s splitting the role with Rudolph, he’s shaky as anything more than a TE2 for a season long league, and just hasn’t shown the ceiling to warrant using him in a DFS tournament this week with bigger upside options at similar prices out there like OJ Howard, Kaden Smith, and Jonnu Smith.

TE Dawson Knox, BUF (Wk. 14: vs. Bal.): Knox is seeing the most extensive playing time he’s seen all year lately. He’s played more than 70% of the offensive snaps in 3 straight games after only hitting that mark once prior to week 11, but it isn’t translating to fantasy production and the Ravens have been wiping out tight ends. Baltimore has allowed the 4^th-fewest PPR points to the position per game, and since week 4 they haven’t allowed any tight end to reach 35 yards against them and have given up just 1 touchdown to the position. I wouldn’t hate Knox as an option in a league that requires you to start 2 tight ends, but I would look for better options if considering him as a TE1.

TE Noah Fant, DEN (Wk. 14: @Hou.): Fant had shown flashes of consistent production with Brandon Allen under center and Jeff Heuerman sidelined, but Heuerman’s return and the change to Drew Lock have made Fant a less than exciting option. Fant did drop a touchdown last week, but it was one of just 3 targets he saw from rookie Drew Lock. Heuerman, meanwhile, drew 5 targets despite playing 13 fewer snaps than Fant. Noah is still the better fantasy option of the two in Denver, but this week’s opponent hasn’t been particularly giving to tight ends. They’re in the top half of the league at limiting tight end points and have given up just 3 tight end scores all year. With other options emerging like Mike Gesicki, Jack Doyle, and Jacob Hollister, I wouldn’t be inclined to take a chance on Fant this week.

TE Foster Moreau, OAK (Wk. 14: vs. Ten.): With Hunter Renfrow out last week, Moreau didn’t really see a big bump in playing time. He still played his usual amount, about half the offensive snaps, but Keelan Doss got on the field for 55% of the offensive snaps after not playing since week 7. Neither of them will be useful fantasy options as long as Darren Waller is commanding 30% of the targets like he did last week. If you play Moreau it’s with a hope & a prayer that he finds the end zone. The Titans have given up 6 tight end scores in 12 games this year.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Devlin Hodges, PIT (Wk. 14: @Ari.): The Steelers have certainly called a conservative game plan with Hodges under center. He’s averaged just 20.5 passing attempts and 172 passing yards per start in the 2 games he’s gotten the nod, but he’s shown a willingness to take shots down field as evidenced by his 4 completions to James Washington of 30 or more yards in the last 2 weeks. He’s averaging a healthy 8.7 yards per attempt on the year. This week he takes on a Cardinals’ defense that is hemorrhaging QB points at a rate rarely seen. For the season they’ve given up a full 3 points more per game to opposing QBs than any other team in the league, and in the last 5 weeks they’ve given up an insane average of 379 passing yards per game. They’ve also given up 14 passing scores in those games and given up 26.3 fantasy points per game to QBs. Hodges is a little pricier in DFS than I would’ve expected given his limited production so far ($5,900 on DraftKings), but this is a great week to consider him as a lower priced cash-game option and a sneaky QB2 in leagues that let you start 2. Don’t count on him to approach 380 yards, but he should be in line for the best passing day of his young career.

RB Patrick Laird, MIA (Wk. 14: @NYJ): With Kalen Ballage going on IR, the backfield in Miami is left to Laird and Myles Gaskin. As mentioned under Gaskin above, Laird is the guy who saw the bulk of the playing time after Ballage went down. The Jets have been a solid run defense this year, ranking 2^nd in run defense DVOA, but they have allowed an opposing back to tally 4 or more receptions in 10 of their 12 games this year. Laird hasn’t been much more efficient that Ballage was as a runner, but he has topped 40 receiving yards in 2 of the last 3 games. He’s worth consideration in deep PPR leagues if you’re struggling for a running back this week.

WR AJ Brown, TEN (Wk. 14: @Oak.): The Raiders have been one of the most burnable pass defenses downfield in the league, giving up 56 passes of 20+ yards, 24 of them going for 30+. The Titans have completed 14 passes this season of 30+ yards, and 6 of them have been to AJ Brown. Khalif Raymond and Jonnu Smith each caught 2, and no other Titan caught more than 1. Brown has been getting more consistent usage since the Titans made the switch to Tannehill at QB. He averaged 3.8 targets per game in Mariota’s starts, and 5.2 per game in Tannehill’s. Brown still doesn’t have a safe floor, but this looks like a spot where a smash game is possible. He’s a nice DFS tournament option and an upside flex play in deep leagues.

WR Parris Campbell, IND (Wk. 14: @TB): Campbell got in a full practice on Wednesday and looks on track to return this weekend in Tampa. TY Hilton said this week that he may be done for the year, and Campbell has been heavily involved whenever he’s been on the field and Hilton hasn’t. In the two games Campbell played with Hilton sidelined, he’s totaled 13 targets and 3 rushing attempts. And turned them into 10 catches and 105 scrimmage yards. The efficiency isn’t ideal, but the Buccaneers allow a full 5 more PPR points to wide receivers per game than any other team in the league. Campbell is practically free in DFS ($3,200 on DraftKings) and could be walking into a big role against easily the worst defense in the league against the position. If you can stomach playing a guy fresh off missing a month with an injury in your fantasy playoffs, Parris could be a really nice option in deep PPR leagues.

WR Diontae Johnson, PIT (Wk. 14: @Ari.): Johnson has been disappointing in recent weeks, coming up short of 30 receiving yards in 4 of his past 5 games. Granted, he did leave a game in the middle of that stretch concussed and bleeding from his ears, but those numbers aren’t going to help fantasy owners. This is as good a spot for him to get back on track as he’s had in a while. The Cardinals have been handing out receiving yards lately like they’re candy on Halloween. The Steelers still aren’t a high volume passing attack, and Johnson is likely to be the 3^rd-best fantasy option in this passing game this week behind James Washington and Vance McDonald, but he costs just $4,300 in DraftKings and has tied Washington for the team lead in targets over the last two weeks. I’m not sure where I would use Johnson this week, but I think this is a nice bounce-back opportunity for him. There is still a chance that JuJu Smith-Schuster could return this week, which would make everything written above irrelevant.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Make sure to keep an eye on the injury reports ahead of kickoff Sunday and make sure you don’t end up starting any inactive players. If you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to reach out via twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Details: Written by David Biggs; Created: 03 December 2019

You've made it to the fantasy playoffs, congratulations! Well, that or you're just here for the consolation bracket and in that case I hope you tear 'em up and win the toilet bowl. Either way you're looking for waiver picks and value from the wire to add to your team in order to progress to Week 15. I'm here to help! This week some of the guys that I like more than other experts are Josh Allen, Aaron Jones, Christian Kirk, and Mike Williams. Also, the Indianapolis Colts are a decent defensive pick against a Bucs team that is turning the ball over regularly.

Pay attention to these rankings throughout the week, as they will continue to evolve based on the latest injury updates, news, and player/matchup analysis. Good luck this season and remember, you can tweet us @drinkfive with any of your lineup questions!

2019 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyProsECR ™ - Expert Consensus Rankings

Details: Written by Jason Evans; Created: 02 December 2019

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Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring unless otherwise noted.

4 Games with 100+ Rushing Yards

Last week Lamar Jackson played on Monday night, so I didn’t have my usual opportunity to gush about his absurd statistical season he’s having this year. Allow me to quickly remedy that by pointing out that Jackson now has 4 games with at least 100 rushing yards, a feat that has not been done by any QBs in the history of the league. Jackson’s season total is now up to 977 rushing yards and he could pass Mike Vick’s single season record of 1,039 yards next week. Jackson’s opponent next week, the Buffalo Bills, have given up 109 rushing yards to opposing QBs all season, though Jackson has the ability to go ahead and double up their total on the season by the end of the game. Now 50 fantasy points ahead of the field, Jackson has wrapped up the unofficial Fantasy MVP award for this year, and is the front runner for the actual MVP award, and it’s not even really close.

2 TDs and a Blocked Kick

Taysom Hill had a hell of a game on Thursday night. This may be the first instance I’ve seen of a third string QB outscoring a starting QB (who played the entire game) in fantasy scoring. Hill had 16.50 points thanks to a rushing and a receiving TD, while Drew Brees put up only 11.26 points, his lowest effort of the season. Hill even blocked a punt early in the game, which probably gave him even more points in leagues that feature IDPs. Maybe we could make a special flex position for guys like Hill who are only QB eligible, but never actually play QB. Meanwhile, Hill’s teammate Michael Thomas finally dropped a pass. He had a streak of 198 receptions over 22 games without dropping a pass, just an incredible stretch for him. Thomas had only 6 receptions on Thursday, but he’s still on pace to break the single season receptions record – as long as he doesn’t drop any more passes.

27.90 Fantasy Points

If you had DeVante Parker as the WR1 for the week, then congratulations, you ought to go play the lottery. The 2015 pick has been a bust for years before actually emerging as a solid WR this season. He has at least 91 yards and 6 receptions in each of the last 3 games and is on pace for a really respectable season of 70 receptions and 1100+ yards. Parker finished with the 3^rd most points overall for Week 13 and has the 3^rd most points at WR over the last 4 weeks. Props also go to his teammates Jason Sanders and Matt Haack for executing a very strange play on 4^th down for a touchdown. It was apparently a fake FG, though it did not look like any fakes I’ve ever seen. It did, however, remind me of that awful 4^th down trick play that the Colts tried back in 2015.

25 Fantasy Points in the Last 4 Weeks

The New England Patriots D/ST have not put up points lately, only 25 points in the last 4 weeks, but are still 45 points ahead of 2^nd place. The pace at which they were scoring early in the season obviously could not be sustained, though they are still doubling up the 10^th highest scoring D/ST. That’s a hell of a head start. The Patriots have yet another tough matchup next week when they host the Kansas City Chiefs, but their prospects of being the top D/ST returns in Week 15 and 16 against the Bills and Dolphins. Hopefully the team is healthier, not in an IR sense, but mostly healthy enough so they can all travel in the same enclosed space without worrying about disease spreading rampantly. I don’t think I’ve ever heard of a team taking two planes because so many of its players are ill.

25.28 Fantasy Points per Game in the Last 4 Weeks

Derrick Henry is crushing it at RB lately, averaging 25.28 points per game over his last 4 games. This makes him the top RB during that time period and second to only Lamar Jackson. It would be easier to count the games this year that Henry does NOT have a touchdown; that would be 3. He’s scored 11 TDs total, just one off his career high he set last year. He’s already set new career highs for rushing and receiving yards. Over the last 3 weeks, Henry has 496 yards rushing and 5 TDs. He’s great at putting up tons of points in bunches, and he’s currently in the midst of one of his best streaks of his career. Meanwhile, the Titans have won 5 of their last 6 games and are in the wild card hunt, thanks to Ryan Tannehill. He’s a top 10 QB over the last 4 weeks and leads the league in yards per pass attempt at 9.2y/a since Week 5. The Titans still have 2 games against the Texans which will go a long way to deciding the division winner.

Details: Written by Shawn Foss; Created: 28 November 2019

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! For most of you we’ve made it to the final week of the fantasy regular season. You know where you stand in the playoff picture and know what you need to do to extend your season. It also means the end of the NFL bye weeks, which may make it harder to find use for some of the rookies that were invaluable fill-ins over the last few weeks. Week 13 does boast some favorable matchups for the rookie crop. Miles Sanders, David Montgomery and Josh Jacobs all face off with defenses in the bottom-5 in the NFL at limiting RB points, and every notable rookie tight end other than Noah Fant gets to face off with a bottom-8 tight end defense. Plenty of rookies may dazzle this week.

Regardless of upcoming opponent, let’s take a look at what to expect from the rookie crop this week on Thanksgiving. I’ll dive into the rest of the rookies that play Sunday and Monday later, so stay tuned for that… All of the players for Week 13 are now listed.

Rookies to Start:

RB Devin Singletary, BUF (Wk. 13: @Dal.): Singletary is getting close to being an every-week fantasy starter. He’s put up 75+ rushing yards in 3 of his past 4 games, and this week faces a Dallas defense that ranks 18^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. His usage is secure every week, and he has the ability to be a game-changer on the Thanksgiving DFS slate at a reasonable $5,800 price tag. The only rookie running back I’d consider ahead of him this week is Josh Jacobs.

RB David Montgomery, CHI (Wk. 13: @Det.): I know playing Monty would feel like playing with fire on Turkey Day, but on paper it’s probably the right move. The Bears are almost certainly going to handle the Lions in the early game Thursday as Detroit starts David Blough at QB. Montgomery’s efficiency has been BRUTAL lately, but he’s got 15+ touches in 5 straight games and the Lions are allowing the 2^nd-most PPR points per game to opposing running backs. If you have Montgomery, it probably makes sense to hold your nose and put him in the lineup.

RB Josh Jacobs, OAK (Wk. 13: @KC): Jacobs is coming off his worst fantasy game of the year in a surprising blowout loss to the Jets, but you have to go back to the well again this week. His ceiling won’t be as high as it typically is with the Raiders a 10.5-point underdog, but he’ll have plenty of room to run while the game is competitive. The Chiefs allow the most RB PPR points per game and rank 30^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. Jacobs went for 9.9 PPR points the first time he faced KC (99 rushing yards). I expect he’ll reach double-digits in this one.

RB Miles Sanders, PHI (Wk. 13: @Mia.): Jordan Howard has been ruled out for another week, and Sanders has played more than 80% of the offensive snaps with Howard sidelined the last two games. Against Miami that should result in a strong fantasy day for him. The Dolphins have given up the 5^th-most RB PPR points per game and rank 29^th in run defense DVOA. The Eagles have been hesitant to give Sanders a huge workload. He hasn’t topped 15 touches in any game this year. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Jay Ajayi getting a bit more work this week if the Eagles are playing from ahead (they’re a 10-point favorite), but if Sanders gets about 15 touches in this matchup, he should be at least a low-end RB2 this week.

WR Darius Slayton, NYG (Wk. 13: vs. GB): It looks like the Giants will be without Golden Tate, Evan Engram and Rhett Ellison this week. That leaves Sterling Shepard and Slayton as the top two options in the passing game (outside of Saquon of course) against a defense that ranks 19^th in pass defense DVOA. Slayton has been consistently targeted down the field, and no team in the NFL has allowed more 40+ yard pass plays than the Green Bay Packers. There are likely safer options than Slayton this week, but this a great spot for another big game for the Auburn product. He may tangle with Jaire Alexander more than I’d like him to, but I still think Slayton comes up with a nice game.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Kyler Murray, ARI (Wk. 13: vs. LAR): Murray has been playing his best football of the season the last few weeks, and this week gets a reasonable matchup with the Rams. LA ranks 20^th in pass defense DVOA, and the strongest part of their pass defense, Jalen Ramsey, isn’t likely to venture into the slot to cover Larry Fitzgerald and/or Christian Kirk. Murray has really started to use his legs over the past several weeks, topping 30 rushing yards in 5 of his last 7 games, and the Rams are a week removed from letting Lamar Jackson run for 95. With all 32 teams playing, Murray is going to be more of a low-end QB1 this week rather than locked-in starter, but the upside is there for a strong week.

RB Benny Snell, PIT (Wk. 13: vs. Cle.): The Steelers have made the switch to Devlin Hodges at QB this week, and the last time Hodges started they leaned heavily on the run game with 16 rushing attempts in 25 first half offensive plays against the Chargers. James Conner is expected to miss another week, and Snell worked as the starter last week, handling 21 of the team’s 38 rushing attempts. Kerrith Whyte had a nice performance last week as well, but he carried just 6 times and played just 7 offensive snaps. Snell is the Steeler back you want. The Browns have limited opposing backs to the 13^th-fewest PPR points per game, but they rank 22^nd in run defense DVOA. Snell seems like a sure bet for 15+ carries against that defense. I like him as a flex option this week. He is a better option in non-PPR formats though.

WR DK Metcalf, SEA (Wk. 13: vs. Min.): I believe Metcalf is going to fall on the right side of the borderline this week. The Vikings have struggled to contain all kinds of different receivers this year, allowing the 4^th-most PPR points per game to the position. They’ve given up a decent number of splash plays, allowing the 11^th-most 20+ yard pass plays on the year. Tyler Lockett is still a little banged up, and Metcalf has averaged 7.8 targets per game over the last 5 contests. There is still some degree of boom-or-bust to Metcalf’s game, but I like him to finish as a WR3 or better this week.

WR Terry McLaurin, WAS (Wk. 13: @Car.): McLaurin is more of a floor play than ceiling as long as Haskins is the QB, but the matchup this week puts him in play. The Panthers overall pass defense has been decent, ranking 8^th in pass defense DVOA, but they’ve given up the 5^th-most WR points per game. McLaurin has been the target on 21.3% of Haskins’ pass attempts this season and has averaged 7.8 yards per target. He’s averaged about a 4-70 line the past two weeks, and I think he’ll be in that ballpark again in this plus matchup. He’s a reasonably safe WR3/4 floor play with an outside chance at a ceiling week.

WR AJ Brown, TEN (Wk. 13: @Ind.): Brown has been the epitome of boom-or-bust this season. He’s topped 80 receiving yards in 4 contests and been held under 30 yards in 6 of them. The Titans’ offense as a whole has been more productive in the passing game since changing QBs. They’re averaging 32 more passing yards and 0.6 more passing TDs per game in Tannehill’s starts compared to Mariota’s (excluding the game Mariota was benched during). Brown leads the team in targets from Tannehill, and in yards per target from him (min. 6 targets). The Colts are an average pass defense. Brown is worth a roll of the dice if you’re an underdog in a must-win matchup.

TE Noah Fant, DEN (Wk. 13: vs. LAC): Fant put up a pretty miserable fantasy day in week 12 with the whole Broncos’ offense doing next to nothing. He was targeted 5 times but totaled just 3 catches for 14 yards. It’s worth noting that the return of Jeff Heuerman from injury did ding his snap share a little bit. Heuerman had been out all 3 games since the Manny Sanders trade prior to week 12, and Fant played 82, 86, and 86 percent of the offensive snaps in those games. That number was down to 74% in week 12 with Heuerman back on the field. Fant is still the tight end featured in the passing game, but the Chargers allow the 10^th-fewest PPR points to the position. His usage keeps him in the conversation of being a top-12 tight end option this week but he’ll be a volatile option like most borderline tight ends. The likelihood that Drew Lock starts this week gives Fant even more uncertainty.

TE Dawson Knox, BUF (Wk. 13: @Dal.): Knox played above 70% of the offensive snaps in consecutive weeks for the first time all year in weeks 11 & 12. If that continues the targets are going to follow. The Cowboys allow the 8^th-most PPR points per game to tight ends, and the Bills are a touchdown underdog and will likely have to throw it more than they like to. If there was ever a week to take a leap of faith on Knox, this is probably it.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Daniel Jones, NYG (Wk. 13: vs. GB): Jones has been productive of late, putting up 11 TDs and 1 pick over the last 4 games while adding 28.5 rushing yards per game in that span, but turnovers and sacks have continued to be problems for him. He’s taken 23 sacks and lost 7 fumbles in his past 5 games. The Packers have just a middling pass rush, but so do the Jets and Cardinals who got to Jones a combined 14 times. Green Bay allows just the 10^th-fewest QB points per game and Jones will be without Golden Tate and Evan Engram. Engram has been out several weeks, but Tate has averaged 8 targets per game since returning from suspension. Jones is only a low-end QB2 option this week.

QB Dwayne Haskins, WAS (Wk. 13: @Car.): Haskins failed to make good on his opportunity last week against one of the worst QB defenses in the league, so there’s no reason to trust him against a much tougher opponent this week. The Panthers allow the 11^th-fewest QB points per game and rank 8^th in pass defense DVOA. In 3 starts this year, Haskins has averaged 171 passing yards per game and totaled 2 touchdowns and 3 turnovers. There just isn’t a ceiling to chase here right now.

QB Devlin Hodges, PIT (Wk. 13: vs. Cle.): The Steelers have made the switch from Mason Rudolph to Devlin “Duck” Hodges, but he’s not likely to be a valuable fantasy starter this week. Pittsburgh leaned heavily on the run game in Hodges’ first start, and I’d expect them to do the same here. Pittsburgh ran the ball on 16 of their first 25 offensive plays in Hodges’ first start. Cleveland ranks 9^th in pass defense DVOA. Hodges’ best bet for fantasy production would be on the ground. He ran for nearly 30 yards in his first start, and Cleveland has allowed the 4^th-most QB rushing yards per game and coughed up 4 rushing scores to the position. I’d still look elsewhere this week, even in 2QB formats.

QB Drew Lock, DEN (Wk. 13: vs. LAC): Signs are pointing to Drew Lock making his first start of the year Sunday. He’s been taking the majority of the 1^st string reps in practice, but I’d rather see what he can do before pulling the trigger on him in any lineups. The Broncos want to run first and foremost, and the Chargers rank 27^th in run defense DVOA. The Broncos likely want to limit Lock to fewer than 30 attempts if possible. I’d steer clear until we see how Lock looks in real game action.

RB Alexander Mattison, MIN (Wk. 13: @Sea.): The Vikings have played 3 consecutive close games that were decided by 4 points or less, and Mattison has averaged just 8 offensive snaps per game in those contests. The Vikings are a field goal underdog this week and Seattle allows the 10^th-fewest RB points per game. Mattison probably gets a handful of carries, but not enough to trust in lineups.

RBs Patrick Laird & Myles Gaskin, MIA (Wk. 13: vs. Phi.): Laird did see a jump in playing time last week as expected, but he was still limited to just 37% of the offensive snaps. He played one snap less than Kalen Ballage, and Gaskin played just enough to keep Laird’s usage from being exciting. With all 32 teams playing this week, you shouldn’t be scrounging the wire for a guy who may get a handful of targets on one of the worst offenses in the league. The Eagles allow the 9^th-fewest PPR points per game to running backs.

RB Justice Hill, BAL (Wk. 13: @SF): I only mention Hill at all because he got 8 carries on Monday night. There’s nothing to read into his usage. Baltimore won by 39 points, so he got some late run. It’s HIGHLY unlikely that scenario repeats itself in San Francisco.

RB Ryquell Armstead, JAX (Wk. 13: vs. TB): In two games since posting a 5-65 receiving line against Houston in week 9 Armstead has just 3 touches for 19 yards. The Bucs rank 1^st in run defense DVOA and allow the 3^rd-fewest RB PPR points per game. Even if Ryquell does get a handful of touches this week he’s unlikely to do much with them.

WR Marquise Brown, BAL (Wk. 13: vs. SF): Brown found the end zone twice last week, and probably is still in consideration for your lineup this week if you have him, but on paper this looks like a down week for Hollywood. The 49ers rank 2^nd in pass defense DVOA and allow the 7^th-fewest WR PPR points per game. This week’s matchup is going to be a rainy one in Baltimore, and if you play Brown it’s with the hope he hits a couple big plays. San Francisco has allowed just 18 pass plays of 20+ yards in 11 games. No other team in the league has allowed fewer than 23. I get it that Brown may be your best option this week, but I want to make it clear how dicey he is against the 49ers.

WR Deebo Samuel, SF (Wk. 13: @Bal.): Samuel has been breaking out over the past few weeks, but the return of George Kittle last Sunday resulted in Samuel being targeted just twice. He did turn those targets into 50 yards and a TD, but similar usage this week is unlikely to have a similar return. The Ravens secondary has been fantastic since trading for Marcus Peters. They’ve given up just 2 WR scores in their past 6 games, and there is a 100% chance of rain in Baltimore during the game. I know there will be temptation to play Samuel after he put up 19.2, 21.4, and 13 PPR points in his last 3 games, but I think you’ll be better served to look elsewhere this week.

WR Diontae Johnson, PIT (Wk. 13: vs. Cle.): Johnson may very well lead the Steelers in targets this week, but I’d rather not rely on him if you need a win this week. The Steelers are likely to lean on the run game, and the Browns allow the 11^th-fewest WR points per game. Johnson has just 5 catches for 46 yards in the past 2 games. Meanwhile James Washington has put up 6-147-1 including a 79-yard TD catch from Devlin Hodges. Washington seems like the higher upside play this week. Johnson has some upside this week, but it’s very possible the Steelers total less than 200 passing yards which caps his ceiling.

WR Mecole Hardman, KC (Wk. 13: vs. Oak.): Tyreek Hill is fully expected to play this week after exiting KC’s last game with a hamstring issue just 7 snaps in. Mecole played 52 snaps in that game but had played just 38 snaps total in the 3 games prior, totaling 3-118-2 on 3 targets and adding a rush for 7 yards in those games. That’s an incredible level of production given the limited playing time, but Hardman remains just a big play dart throw as long as Hill is in the lineup. The Raiders have been burnable, giving up more 20+ yard pass plays than any other team in the league, but I’d still try for a safer option this week.

WR N’Keal Harry, NE (Wk. 13: @Hou.): Harry made a spectacular TD catch last week and played more than 80% of the offensive snaps, but the return of Phillip Dorsett this week should push him back to the bench. He’ll play some, but not enough to warrant fantasy consideration even in this decent matchup. I’d look to Jakobi Meyers if you’re looking for a rookie Patriot pass catcher this week.

WR Kelvin Harmon, WAS (Wk. 13: @Car.): Harmon has finally started to make an impact on the field the last couple weeks with Paul Richardson battling an injury. Richardson returned last week but played just 15 snaps to Harmon’s 38. Harmon has been targeted 6 times in each of the last 2 contests, but he’s been mostly utilized in the short & intermediate part of the field. His sneaky PPR upside the last two weeks was mostly due to so many receivers being on byes. With all 32 teams playing and Richardson another week removed from injury there just isn’t enough upside to try Harmon this week.

WRs Andy Isabella & KeeSean Johnson, ARI (Wk. 13: vs. LAR): Johnson is an obvious sit with just 4 catches for 36 yards on 9 targets in the past 3 weeks, but I’d be opposed to starting Isabella too. He’s getting some deep targets on his limited snaps, but he may have to match up with Jalen Ramsey a bit in this one. He’s still in play as a cheap DFS tournament dart throw, but I’d probably look elsewhere this week. The Rams have allowed the 2^nd-fewest pass plays of 20+ yards in the league and have given up just 4 passes of 40+ on the season.

RB Ty Johnson, DET (Wk. 13: vs. Chi.): Johnson was already producing in a limited capacity before the Lions brought in Bo Scarbrough, but Ty’s opportunity should be limited even further going forward. Bo has become the clear leader of the Lions RB committee, getting almost all of the early down work. Johnson is left fighting with JD McKissic for leftovers. Johnson would be lucky to top 35% of the offensive snaps this week against a Bears’ defense allowing the 14^th-most RB points per game, and even if he does reach that number, it’s highly unlikely he reaches a usable point total.

TE TJ Hockenson, DET (Wk. 13: vs. Chi.): Hockenson hasn’t produced much fantasy goodness in quite some time. He hasn’t topped 10 PPR points since week 4, and he’s finished under 3.5 PPR points in 3 of his last 5 games. He gets a favorable matchup this week against a Bears’ team that has allowed the 7^th-most points to the position per game, but in week 12 he combined his lack of production with a drop in playing time. It was the first time all year he played fewer than 50% of the Lions’ offensive snaps, giving way to Logan Thomas at times. He was playing through an injury, which may explain the dip in snaps, but he will still be banged up on the short week this week. His limited playing time and limited production makes him almost impossible to trust this week.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

WR Jakobi Meyers, NE (Wk. 13: @Hou.): Phillip Dorsett is set to return this week, but it sounds like Mohamed Sanu could be out again. Sanu has been playing primarily in the slot, so it’s Meyers who is likely to play in his stead. Houston has struggled to defend the slot, allowing massive games to Michael Thomas (10-123) and Keenan Allen (13-183-2) who spend a decent amount of time in the slot, and gave up respectable games to less heralded slot receivers Jarius Wright (5-59), Mohamed Sanu (5-42-1) and Hunter Renfrow (4-88-1). At just $3,300 on DraftKings, Meyers has a chance to easily outproduce his price tag. The Texans rank just 26^th in pass defense DVOA.

WR Bisi Johnson, MIN (Wk. 13: @Sea.): It seems that Adam Thielen may return Monday night, and if he does, I don’t expect Johnson to do much. He hasn’t topped 4 targets in any game that Thielen played from start to finish. Unfortunately, we may not know if Thielen is playing until Monday night. If you’re considering Thielen this week, it makes some sense to scoop Johnson off the waiver wire to be safe. The Vikes are a 3-point underdog on Monday night, so they’ll likely be throwing more than 30 times and you could make a case for Bisi as a TD dart throw even if Thielen returns. If Thielen does sit, Johnson becomes more of a WR4 type, but one with enough upside to not kill you this week and be a potential steal in DFS tournaments at just $3,800 in DraftKings. The Seahawks aren’t a WR defense to target, but they aren’t one to avoid either allowing the 14^th-most PPR points per game to the position.

WR Parris Campbell, IND (Wk. 13: vs. Ten.): Campbell’s status is still up in the air for Sunday, but if he plays, he has a chance at a surprising day. TY Hilton has already been ruled out, and the last time Campbell played with Hilton sidelined he was targeted 8 times. Eric Ebron also played in that game, and he’s since gone to injured reserve. The Titans rank 23^rd in pass defense DVOA and Campbell is basically free in DFS ($3,200 on DraftKings).

WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside, PHI (Wk. 13: @Mia.): It looks like there is a real chance that Alshon Jeffery returns this week, but if he doesn’t there is some solid upside for Arcega-Whiteside. The Dolphins are the worst team in the league in pass defense DVOA and they allow the 8^th-most fantasy points per game to the position. JJ was targeted 5 times and played 71% of the snaps in week 12 as the number 2 receiver to Jordan Matthews, and Matthews was cut this week. Nelson Agholor is also on the mend and could be back. If both he and Jeffery return, you shouldn’t consider JJ, but if Alshon or both sit, JJ becomes an upside option for DFS tournaments and deep leagues.

TE Kaden Smith, NYG (Wk. 13: vs. GB): Smith filled in as the Giants’ full-time tight end in week 12 with Evan Engram and Rhett Ellison both sidelined. If both are out again, Smith would make a really interesting spot play this week. The Packers have given up a 60-yard receiving day to a tight end in 5 straight games and coughed up 5 scores to the position in those games. I wouldn’t expect a monster game out of Smith after he averaged just 3.4 yards per catch last week, but he should have a great chance at 5+ catches if both Ellison and Engram sit again. He could be a steal in DFS tournaments at just $2,900 on DraftKings.

TE Irv Smith Jr., MIN (Wk. 13: @Sea.): There is a chance the Vikings play without Adam Thielen again on Monday, and the Seahawks allow the 4^th-most TE points per game. Seattle has surrendered big fantasy days to 2^nd tier and lower tight ends CJ Uzomah (4-66), Gerald Everett (7-136), and Ricky Seals-Jones (3-47-1). It may be tough to pull the trigger on Smith given that we won’t know Thielen’s status until Monday, but he could be a great option for Monday showdown DFS slates ($3,200 on DraftKings), and could be a decent fallback option if you have Thielen set to play in a flex spot.

TE Foster Moreau, OAK (Wk. 13: @KC): With the injury to Hunter Renfrow, look for the Raiders’ plans moving forward to include more 2-tight end sets. The Chiefs allow the 5^th-most TE points per game and Moreau costs the minimum on DraftKings. While Darren Waller is the most likely Raider to take advantage of the matchup, Moreau has had a knack for getting in the end zone. He’s scored every other game for the past 8 weeks, and while that’s hardly predictive this would be the week he’d be due for a score if the pattern holds.

RB Tony Pollard, DAL (Wk. 13: vs. Buf.): The Cowboys have started to get Pollard at least slightly more involved of late, but he still has averaged just 3 touches per game in the Cowboys’ 5 losses. Luckily for him the ‘Boys are favored by a touchdown on Thursday. I wouldn’t roll Pollard out there in season long leagues. There is a very real chance that the Cowboys streak of losing to every winning team they play continues, but if you think the Vegas line is about right Pollard has a chance to be a dangerous cheap option for Thanksgiving day DFS tournaments. The Bills rank 26^th in run defense DVOA.

That’s all I’ve got for the Thanksgiving slate. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Make sure to keep an eye on the injury reports ahead of kickoff Sunday and make sure you don’t end up starting any inactive players. Keep in mind there are 3 games on Thursday with the first starting at 11:30 AM CT, so make sure your lineups are set in time. If you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to reach out via twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). Have a safe and happy holiday, and as always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Make sure to keep an eye on the injury reports ahead of kickoff Sunday and make sure you don’t end up starting any inactive players. If you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to reach out via twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Details: Written by Tad Bukowski; Created: 27 November 2019

We have arrived at the Holiday Season.

Thanksgiving is upon us – a time to spend with family an reflect on the blessings that you have received and offer the appropriate thanks!

In this case, we are thankful for getting THREE football games on a Thursday! Yay football!

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

Week 13 – HERE WE GO!!!!!!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN ALL CAPS)

16 – CAROLINA over Washington – Christian McCaffrey has had a stretch of good games, but a home game against the Redskins should be enough for a great game! My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that McCaffrey will have 100 yards rushing and 100 yards receiving.

15 – KANSAS CITY over Oakland – Simply put, the Raiders were exposed as a team that yet ready for a division win last week.

14 – DETROIT over Chicago – The Bears were able to hold on and beat the Giants at home last week…not a exactly a win that would help regain confidence in the Monsters of the Midway.

13 – DALLAS over Buffalo – If the Bills want to show they are for real they will need to win this national game…I just don’t see it happening.

12 – BALTIMORE over San Francisco – Here’s an out on a limb statement…the Ravens are good…really good!

11 – Philadelphia over MIAMI – Philly could use a game against the Dolphins to help them bounce back for the home stretch of the NFC East race.

10 – Green Bay over NEW YORK GIANTS – I have a strong feeling that Aaron Rodgers will really want to show that last week’s performance was a fluke.

9 – New Orleans over ATLANTA – I give up correctly predicting the Falcons!

8 – PITTSBURGH over Cleveland – Can’t say I expected to talk about the Steelers solidifying their playoff chances a month or two ago.

7 – INDIANAPOLIS over Tennessee – The Titans may be the least talked about team still fighting for a playoff spot. The Colts should be able to show there isn’t much to talk about.

6 – HOUSTON over New England – The Patriots are playing a good team on the road…so they have no chance!

5 – SEATTLE over Minnesota – The week will end on a strong note with the Seahawks taking this potential playoff preview.

4 – JACKSONVILLE over Tampa Bay – Just remember when watching this game, these are the two BEST teams in Florida!

3 – New York Jets over CINCINNATI – The Jets have been looking good lately, but it’s still hard to have a lot of confidence in them.

2 – ARIZONA over Los Angeles Rams – What happened to the Rams?

1 – DENVER over Los Angeles Chargers – Congrats Denver! You get a big divisional win, and hurt you’re draft stock in the process!

Fantasy Football / NFL

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