Welcome back to the Rookie Report! I hope you managed to avoid any landmines in your lineups last week and didn’t run into anyone starting Aaron Rodgers, Marvin Jones or Chase Edmonds. It was a wild week 7, probably the most unpredictable week of the season so far. A number of players who seemed to be in prime matchups to set the world on fire last week fell flat instead – Kyler Murray, Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz. Daniel Jones, David Johnson, Phillip Lindsay, Devin Singletary, Larry Fitzgerald, Kenny Golladay, Michael Gallup, Zach Ertz, Evan Engram. It was a messy week to be sure, but it’s a good time for an important etiquette reminder:
If you’re upset about the performance of a player on your fantasy team, don’t go to their social media pages to let them know about it. The players and coaches do not and should not care about your fantasy teams. The players don’t owe you anything if they have a poor fantasy day. They get paid to help their team win, not yours. If their performance cost their own team a win, I assure you they feel worse about it than you do. There is no reason to rub that in.
With that PSA out of the way, let’s take a look at what to expect from the rookies in week 8…
Rookies to Start:
RB Josh Jacobs, OAK (Wk. 8: @Hou.): Keep a close eye on the injury report with Jacobs. Head coach Jon Gruden claims that he is truly ‘questionable’ for this week’s game with a shoulder injury despite returning to the game last week after suffering it. If he does play, he should be in your lineups unless you have multiple studs ahead of him. Jacobs is the RB12 on the year in terms of points per game and has at least 79 rushing yards in all but one contest. This matchup isn’t an ideal one. The Texans allow the 8th-fewest RB points per game on the year and rank 5th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat, but the Raiders’ commitment to getting Jacobs the football should make him a fine RB2 again this week if he’s able to suit up.
WR Terry McLaurin, WAS (Wk. 8: @Min.): There was a time when Xavier Rhodes was a corner to be feared, but so far this year that hasn’t been the case. Rhodes has graded as just the 88th-best corner in the league according to Pro Football Focus and the Vikings have given up the 10th-most wide receiver points per game. They have been carved up by several perimeter receivers so far: Davante Adams (7-106), Allen Robinson (7-77), Darius Slayton (4-62-1), Alshon Jeffrey (10-76-1), and Marvin Jones (10-93-4). Fire up McLaurin this week as a WR2 and completely wipe the monsoon game last weekend from your memory.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Kyler Murray, ARI (Wk. 8: @NO): Coming off his worst passing game of the season, Murray gets to face a red-hot Saints defense that has held opposing QBs to just 13 fantasy points per game over the past 4 weeks. That would rank as the 5th-best mark in the league if it were over the whole season. The Saints did show some vulnerability against running QBs early in the year, giving up rushing lines of 4-40-1 to Deshaun Watson and 7-51-2 to Russell Wilson. The Cardinals have an implied total just below 20 points this week, so Vegas doesn’t see a ton of upside for their offense as a whole. If I have a solid QB1 on my roster I’d probably be starting them over Murray this week.
QB Gardner Minshew, JAX (Wk. 8: vs. NYJ): Aside from a forgettable performance in week 6 against the Saints, Minshew has been a dependable QB2 every week with at least 16 points in every other game. This week’s matchup probably limits his upside a bit. There are 9 teams that average giving up more fantasy points to the QB than the Jets allowed in their worst outing of the year. Despite the matchup Gardner should be fine as a QB2 once again this week. The Jets rank just 17th in pass defense DVOA despite how well they’ve limited QBs, so they aren’t likely to completely shut the mustachioed gunslinger down. With every solid outing he moves closer to keeping the job when Nick Foles returns.
RB David Montgomery, CHI (Wk. 8: vs. LAC): I’m sure if you got burned by Montgomery last week you’re unlikely to go back to that well again, but he was more of a victim of a poor game plan than his own poor performance. His first career fumble didn’t help him any, but he didn’t get his first carry of the game until the second half. That’s inexcusable for Matt Nagy and he knows it, saying after the game “I know we have to run the ball more. I’m not an idiot.” As comical as that quote is, it convinces me the Bears are going to get the ball to Monty much earlier and much more often this week. The Chargers are a porous run defense. They rank 24th in run defense DVOA and have allowed 5 of the 7 lead backs they’ve faced to top 15 fantasy points (half PPR scoring). As we’ve seen this year Montgomery is never a sure thing, but I like his chances of posting a solid fantasy game this week.
RB Ty Johnson, DET (Wk. 8: vs. NYG): With Kerryon Johnson hitting injured reserve this week, Ty Johnson became the biggest priority waiver claim of the week. The Lions did sign Paul Perkins and could still bring in another runner (possibly CJ Anderson who opened the year with the team), but with just Johnson and JD McKissic available last week Johnson out-snapped JD 49-19 and out-touched him 14-7. It appears Johnson will be the lead back of the committee in the immediate future, and this week he faces a Giants team that has allowed the 5th-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. The Lions are a touchdown favorite, so they should be able to keep running. Johnson has RB2 upside this week in a great matchup. Keep on eye on team updates and make sure Perkins won’t have a bigger role than expected before pulling the trigger on Johnson.
WR DK Metcalf, SEA (Wk. 8: @Atl.): Metcalf has lived on the borderline this season. He’s made several big plays but limited overall volume for Seattle’s passing attack has prevented DK from becoming a weekly fantasy starter. Metcalf has finished in the top 30 receivers in PPR scoring 3 times this year but has not finished in the top 24 yet. Could this be the week? It’s definitely possible. The Falcons have been among the worst defenses in the league. They rank 31st in pass defense DVOA and have coughed up the 5th-most wide receiver points per game. They’re also tied for the 3rd-most pass plays of 20+ yards allowed, which plays into Metcalf’s strengths as a deep threat. The upside is there, but his limited volume and 50% catch rate on the year will continue to cap his ceiling for the time being. He’s worth WR3 consideration this week.
WR Diontae Johnson, PIT (Wk. 8: vs. Mia.): The return of Mason Rudolph and a matchup with the sad sack Dolphins make Johnson a reasonable streamer this week if you’re looking for a fill-in wide receiver. Johnson and Juju Smith-Schuster have the same 21.3% target share with Rudolph at QB and the Dolphins have allowed 11 WR touchdowns in just 6 games. They’ve also given up the 9th-most WR points per game and rank dead last in pass defense DVOA. The points allowed would be even worse if they weren’t frequently getting blown out. Johnson probably shouldn’t be that much behind Juju in the WR rankings this week.
TE TJ Hockenson, DET (Wk. 8: vs. NYG): The volume and overall production hasn’t exactly been there for Hockenson so far outside of week 1, and this looks like a tough matchup on paper, but I feel good about Hockenson’s chances of getting in the end zone in this one. The Giants have allowed the 5th-fewest TE points per game on the year, but they’ve faced just about the least impressive lineup of tight ends imaginable so far. After giving up two scores to the Cowboys’ tight ends in week 1, they’ve faced off with Dawson Knox, OJ Howard, Jeremy Sprinkle, Kyle Rudolph, Ryan Izzo and Charles Clay. They gave up 3-66 to Howard, his best fantasy game of the year. Marvin Jones’ 4-TD outburst last week should draw more attention his way in the red zone, and the Lions have an implied total of more than 28 points and don’t have Kerryon to give the ball to at the goal line. We’ve seen the floor isn’t high for TJ, but the TE position is bad when you get outside the top 8 or so options. He’s worth streamer consideration this week.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Daniel Jones, NYG (Wk. 8: @Det.): I’ve expected good things from Jones a couple of times recently, and he hasn’t delivered since his sensational debut against the Bucs. In 4 games since, we’ve seen lackluster performances in good matchups and bad, and in situations where his weapons were healthy and where they weren’t healthy. The Lions are typically a defense to target with QBs, allowing multiple scores in 4 of 6 games and 280+ yards passing in 5 of 6, but Jones hasn’t reached even 13 fantasy points since his debut. I wouldn’t count on everything suddenly clicking this week and would look elsewhere even for a QB2.
RB Devin Singletary, BUF (Wk. 8: vs. Phi.): I wouldn’t be thrilled to take my chances with Singletary this week. The Eagles have been a dominant run defense for much of the year. Ezekiel Elliott broke through against them on Sunday night for a big game, but he was the first starting running back all year to average 3 yards per carry or better against Philly. They also haven’t allowed a single receiving score to an opposing back this year. There is a potential path to a decent game for Singletary. The Eagles have let two change of pace RB2s have success against them (Ito Smith 4-32, and Alexander Mattison 14-63), and they have allowed 4 different backs to post 6+ catches in just 7 games. If the Bills fall behind Singletary would be in line for a healthy receiving line. For what it’s worth, the Bills are a point and a half favorite in this game. I’d be inclined to think of Singletary as closer to borderline in PPR formats, and more of a guy to bench in non-PPR.
RB Miles Sanders, PHI (Wk. 8: @Buf.): On the other side of the Bills-Eagles tilt, Sanders has just 9 rushing attempts and 6 targets in the past 2 games. He’s clearly taken a back seat to Jordan Howard in the running game and Howard gets all the carries in close, so Sanders needs to make his biggest impact in the passing game. Thus far the Bills have only allowed 1 running back to reach 40 receiving yards (James White), and haven’t allowed a single RB receiving score. A long touchdown would give you the production you’re hoping for from Miles, but I would be looking for a safer bet for my lineups.
WR Jakobi Meyers, NE (Wk. 8: vs. Cle.): Despite Josh Gordon getting placed on injured reserve, it was not a good week for Meyers’ rest-of-season outlook. The Pats have traded for Mohamed Sanu and designated N’Keal Harry to return from IR. Harry can’t return until week 9 at the earliest, but Sanu can suit up this week. It’s hard to say what the WR rotation will look like this week. Sanu muddies things up enough that it’s tough to trust Meyers in any lineups. He has played well enough to earn more opportunity, catching all 9 of his targets over the past 2 weeks for 101 yards. I’m just not sure the playing time will continue to be there for him. He played just 51% of the offensive snaps last week without Sanu on the roster.
WR Mecole Hardman, KC (Wk. 8: vs. GB): Tyreek Hill was back to being a full-time player in week 7, and Hardman saw his lowest snap share of the season as a result. He also lost his starting QB for the time being which will cap the entire offense’s upside for the immediate future. Even if Sammy Watkins sits again, Hardman is no more than a big play dart throw with Matt Moore at QB.
WR Darius Slayton, NYG (Wk. 8: @Det.): Slayton saw his targets drop dramatically with the Giants’ other primary weapons back. Slayton still worked as a full-time player, but with Engram and Saquon back in the lineup he was targeted just twice despite Daniel Jones throwing 35 times. The Lions are just a middling defense against wide receivers, but Slayton will be competing for scraps with Bennie Fowler and Cody Latimer after Tate, Engram and Barkley get theirs.
WR Deebo Samuel, SF (Wk. 8: vs. Car.): Samuel’s status for this week is still up in the air, but his status in your lineup shouldn’t be. Dante Pettis has led the WR group in snaps in each of the last 3 weeks, and the Manny Sanders trade should push Samuel down to fighting for snaps with Marquise Goodwin and Kendrick Bourne each week. He’s droppable in most season-long leagues. Sanders likely won’t need much ramp up time to learn the offense in San Francisco since his OC in Denver had spent 3 of the past 4 years coaching on Kyle Shanahan’s staff.
WRs Keelan Doss & Hunter Renfrow, OAK (Wk. 8: @Hou.): Renfrow is an easy call to sit since he still hasn’t topped 4 catches and 30 yards in a game this year. Doss had a nice day Sunday with Tyrell Williams ailing, posting a 3-54 line on just 29 offensive snaps. The matchup this week is decent with Houston allowing the 4th-most WR points per game, but Tyrell is fully expected to return this week and there just isn’t enough volume to go around after Tyrell and Waller to trust any other Raiders’ pass catcher in fantasy.
WRs KeeSean Johnson & Andy Isabella, ARI (Wk. 8: @NO): Isabella collected his first 2 catches of the year last Sunday, but he and Johnson combined for just 15 snaps and Christian Kirk wasn’t even active. Kirk may return this week, but the rookie duo has given way to Damiere Byrd and Trent Sherfield for the time being. There isn’t any reason to look at them for your lineups even against a Saints team that allows the 7th-most WR points per game.
WR Parris Campbell, IND (Wk. 8: vs. Den.): It sounds like Campbell may return this week from an abdominal injury, but he just hasn’t done enough so far this year to warrant consideration. He faces a Denver defense that has allowed the 7th-fewest WR points per game, and Campbell has totaled just 10 catches on 13 targets through 5 games played and averages just 6.2 yards per catch. I need to see more from him before I consider him in lineups.
TE Irv Smith Jr, MIN (Wk. 8: vs. Was.): With Adam Thielen sidelined this week, the Vikings will have to look elsewhere in the passing game. Smith is coming off his best game as a pro with season-highs of 41 snaps, 5 catches and 60 yards. The absence of Thielen could result in an uptick in targets for Irv this week, but Washington has kept tight ends in check for the most part. They haven’t let any tight end reach 60 yards this season and they’ve faced Zach Ertz, Evan Engram and George Kittle. There is another Viking rookie pass catcher that I would be more inclined to look to this week. You can read more about him in the Sleeper section below. I’d look for other streaming options if considering Smith this week.
TE Noah Fant, DEN (Wk. 8: @Ind.): Fant gets a favorable matchup this week against a Colts’ defense that has allowed the 6th-most tight end points per game, but he just hasn’t been productive enough to trust in lineups at this point. He’s reached 8 PPR points just once all year and has just 4 catches for 29 yards in the last 3 games combined. There are some positives for Fant. He set a season-high with 5 targets last week and could see increased opportunity with Emmanuel Sanders out of the picture, but that’s not enough for me to justify using him even in a seemingly good matchup. The Colts have allowed 4 tight ends to top 50 receiving yards this year, and all 4 were quality players (Kelce, Waller, Hooper and Hunter Henry).
TE Dawson Knox, BUF (Wk. 8: vs. Phi.): The Eagles are allowing just 41 receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends, and if you throw out Vernon Davis’s ridiculous hurdling touchdown from week 1 that number drops below 35 yards per game. Knox has seen his targets slowly go up as the season has gone on, but over his past two games he’s turned a total of 10 targets into just 4 catches for 34 yards. This is unlikely to be the week he gets it going again.
TE Foster Moreau, OAK (Wk. 8: @Hou.): Moreau continues to get a decent amount of playing time but will also continue to be a low upside option as long as Darren Waller is around. He’s been targeted 11 times in the last 3 games and turned them into 9-100-2 over that span. He’d need another touchdown this week to return value and the Texans have only allowed one to the tight end position on the season. Houston also has allowed the 7th-fewest fantasy points per game to the position.
TE Josh Oliver, JAX (Wk. 8: vs. NYJ): Despite injuries to Geoff Swaim and James O’Shaughnessy in recent weeks, Oliver still served as the TE3 for the Jaguars last week behind Seth DeValve and Ben Koyack. He was not targeted in 25 snaps, and this week faces a defense that has allowed the 5th-fewest tight end points per game. There is no reason to expect production from the San Jose State product this week.
Rookies on byes in week 8: RB Justice Hill, BAL, RB Tony Pollard, DAL, WR Marquise Brown, BAL, WR Miles Boykin, BAL
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
RB Darrell Henderson, LAR (Wk. 8: vs. Cin.): Malcolm Brown will be sidelined again this week, and the Rams are a 13-point favorite against the hapless Bengals, who allow the most RB fantasy points per game. Todd Gurley should still work as the lead back, but Henderson will likely wind up in the 12-15 touch range if the game goes as expected. Against Cincinnati that’s enough work to put a running back firmly on the flex radar. He’s a great upside option now that Brown has been officially ruled out.
RB Benny Snell, PIT (Wk. 8: vs. Mia.): The Steelers will be without Jaylen Samuels in this one, and they are a heavy favorite against the league-worst Dolphins. James Conner should get plenty of work early, but the Pittsburgh RB2 role has averaged more than 13 touches per game over the last 3. Some of that is skewed by Conner’s injury against the Chargers, but I can’t imagine the Steelers won’t turn to Snell once they get control of the game. Snell impressed ahead of the team’s bye with 75 yards on 17 carries against the Bolts. The Dolphins rank dead last in the NFL in run defense DVOA and give up the 2nd-most RB points per game. Snell could be in play as a flex option for deeper leagues.
RB Alexander Mattison, MIN (Wk. 8: vs. Was.): Week 7 was the first time all season that Mattison was held below 49 yards in a Minnesota win, but he’s still had at least 7 carries in each. This week is the easiest to predict win for the Vikings that they’ll have had thus far (assuming they get it). Minnesota is favored by more than 2 touchdowns, so there is a great chance at a runaway victory. That means extended run for Mattison. Washington is a below average run defense, ranking 18th in run defense DVOA. Mattison is best used in deeper non-PPR leagues since he’ll give you nothing in the passing game, but he’s a good bet for 50+ yards and a possible garbage time score this week.
WR AJ Brown, TEN (Wk. 8: vs. TB): For at least one week, Ryan Tannehill seemed to be just what the doctor ordered to fix the Titans’ broken passing game. Corey Davis was the biggest beneficiary of the change but Brown set season-highs with 8 targets and 6 catches. This week he faces a Tampa defense that has allowed 5 different wide receivers to reach 20 fantasy points (half-PPR) in the past 4 games. We’ve already seen Brown be a DFS week winner when he went 3-94-2 in week 4 against Atlanta. The Bucs give up more WR points per game than Atlanta does. At just $4,100 in DraftKings this is another good week to take a shot on Brown in GPP tournaments.
WR Olabisi Johnson, MIN (Wk. 8: vs. Was.): The Vikings are without Adam Thielen on Thursday night, so Johnson should slot in as the Vikings’ number 2 wide receiver. Washington has been bad against WRs overall, allowing the 9th-most points per game to the position, but oddly they rank 1st in pass defense DVOA on throws to the opposing number 1 wide receiver and dead last in DVOA on throws to the number 2 receiver. The Vikings have a healthy implied total of 29 points, and Johnson was targeted 8 times last week. I like him if you’re scouring the waiver wire for a fill in WR in deep leagues. He’ll have to produce his points before the Vikes put the game out of reach, but that hasn’t been a problem for most teams against Washington.
WR Preston Williams, MIA (Wk. 8: @Pit.): Williams posted a surprisingly strong performance last week against the stingy Bills secondary, posting 6-82 on 8 targets. He did lose a fumble, but this was the 4th time in 6 games that Williams has either found the end zone or topped 60 yards. It was nice to see him perform well with Fitzpatrick at QB. DeVante Parker has been visiting the end zone more frequently than Williams with touchdowns in 3 straight, but that may just mean Williams is due for one. The Steelers are a decent pass defense, ranking 10th in pass defense DVOA, but they are just a middling defense when it comes to limiting WR points (18th most WR points allowed). Williams is an option in the deepest of leagues and as a DFS dart throw.
WR Scotty Miller, TB (Wk. 8: @Ten.): A lot of folks may have forgotten about Miller since Tampa was on a bye last week, but against Carolina in London Miller played 60% of the Bucs’ offensive snaps and was targeted 7 times. He isn’t a guy I would roll out in lineups this week against a Titans team that allows the 6th-fewest WR points per game, but he is worth stashing in deeper leagues in case that usage continues. He could eventually be the Adam Humphries replacement the Tampa offense has been missing. At the bare minimum cost on DraftKings, there is an argument to be made for him in GPP tournaments. The Titans don’t give up a ton of WR points, but they rank just 23rd in pass defense DVOA.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with the tougher lineup decisions you have involving the rookies. Keep an eye on the injury report throughout the week to make sure there are no big changes that affect your fantasy team. If you want to yell at me about anything written above or have any specific questions, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
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