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Hello, fellow risk-takers. If you are unfamiliar with my my column, it is geared towards NFL wagering. Every week I'll bring you 3-5 of my most confident, spread based picks, as well as the same amount of point based picks to stay away from. Additionally, I will give you several 3-game, moneyline parlays that I think are a lock to win. Finally, I present my weekly confidence pool picks for those looking for an edge against their competition. As always, good luck and wager wisely!

Well, as I mentioned last week, there were going to be a lot of road victories. I ended up going 11-3 for my confidence picks. Not bad, not bad. Didn't win a whole lot because a lot of those games seemed like a trap, but at least I wound up in the black. This week however, it appears most home teams have the edge. I was thinking I'd have some more backbone and pry the wallet open a little wider this time around. Additionally, bad weather is going to be expected in 3-4 games this week, with another 5 contests being played in a dome.

NICK'S PICKS:

BUF -2.5  I'm taking the Bills all day. Philadelphia's secondary is near the bottom of the league and their run game isn't that consistent. I just think that Buffalo's defense will be too much for Carson Wentz and the Eagles.

DET -6.5  I have a feeling Matthew Stafford will shred the Giants' defense. Add to the stew that the Lions have home field advantage, and you end up with a tasty victory.

SEA -8  The Seahawks are on the road, yet the Falcons are one of the worst teams currently in the game. And, Atlanta will be without injured QB Matt Ryan, giving Seattle's defense a chance to feast on backup Matt Schaub. It's a no-brainer in this one.

NICK'S NIX PICKS(stay away from these games if you like your money):

(TB +2.5 / TEN -2.5)  Jameis Winston is too streaky and I just have a bad feeling about this one.

(DEN +4.5 / IND -4.5)  The Broncos Have a top 5 secondary but the Colts' gunslinger, Jacoby Brissett, has the the most red zone TDs in the league. And, Indy's defense and run game are also pretty tight.

(CIN +11 / LAR -11)  London Bridge is falling down, falling down. Yeah, the Rams SHOULD win... but anything can happen in these games. Save this salty, sea scratch for something sweet.

(CAR +5 / SF -5)  Other than the Rams(who weren't on top of their game at the time), I still don't feel that the 49ers have played a solid team yet, as most of this season's past foes are around the .500 mark or under. They barely escaped with a victory in Washington last week... and the Panthers are NOT the Redskins. I have a feeling San Fran might get their first loss to a team fresh off their bye week. Carolina has a very good defensive line and one of the RBs in the league.

NICK'S ULTRA MONEYLINE PARLAY PICKS:

(SEA -370 / BUF -130 / DET -279)

(NOS -613 / LAR -621 / HOU -270 / NEP -503)

CON-MAN CONFIDENCE(you can't get what I'm selling anywhere else):

* = WINNER

CLE - 16 - NEP*

CIN - 15 - LAR*

WAS - 14 - MIN*

ARI - 13 - NOS*

NYG - 12 - DET*

SEA* -11 - ATL

MIA - 10 - PIT*

DEN - 09 - IND*

PHI - 08 - BUF*

NYJ - 07 - JAX*

LAC* -06 -CHI

TB   - 05 - TEN*

OAK - 04 - HOU*

CAR* - 03 - SF

GB   - 02 - KC*

Hello, fellow risk-takers. If you are unfamiliar with my my column, it is geared towards NFL wagering. Every week I'll bring you 3-5 of my most confident, spread based picks, as well as the same amount of point based picks to stay away from. Additionally, I will give you several 3-game, moneyline parlays that I think are a lock to win. Finally, I present my weekly confidence pool picks for those looking for an edge against their competition. As always, good luck and wager wisely!

Hey everybody, I just wanted to mention that this could be one of those weeks with a lot of the away teams walking away with a victory. Another theme is divisional games. Make sure you run your numbers and data an extra time before placing bet slips and making pool picks.

NICK'S PICKS:

SF -9.5  I personally think that the 'Niners should have no problem beating one of the NFC's worst teams(Washington Redskins), by at least 10 points. I know San Francisco is on the road, traveling across the country, but they are looking way too tough for Washington to stop. I lowered the spread on this game a half point, down from 10.0.

JAX -4  Another road team, but in the same time zone as their opponent, the Jaguars are formidable enough to overcome the likes of the sad, sad, Cincinnati Bengals.

TEN -2.5  Can the Titans win by a field goal over the 'what the hell happened to us Chargers'? I think Tennessee's defense can make a victory happen. The offenses have both been adrift in a sea of non-consistent mediocrity.

NICK'S NIX PICKS(stay away from these games if you like your $$$):

(MIN -2.5 / DET +2.5)  Going to be a close division game with the Vikings on the road. Anything can happen.

(HOU +1 / IND -1)  Another division game that will probably come down to a few big plays. Save your flow for another game.

(MIA +16.5 / BUF -16.5)  I hate to sound like a broken record, but I really do hate these inter-division games, especially with spreads near 20 points.

(BAL +3 / SEA -3)  I personally like the Ravens in this game, but the Seahawks keep finding ways to win. Too close for comfort.

(NOS +4 / CHI -4)  Too much can and will go wrong in this game. Injuries, back-ups and good defenses are the themes of this game.

NICK'S ULTRA MONEYLINE PARLAY PICKS:

(SF -424 / BUF -1176 / MIN -145)

(NEP -413 / DAL -149 / HOU +102)

CON-MAN CONFIDENCE(you can't get what I'm selling anywhere else):

* = WINNER

NEP* - 16 - NYJ

SF*   - 15 - WAS

MIA   - 14 - BUF*

JAX*  - 13 - CIN

LAR* - 12 - ATL

LAC   - 11 - TEN*

MIN* - 10 - DET

HOU* - 09 - IND

OAK   - 08 - GB*

ARI    - 07 - NYG*

BAL   - 06 - SEA*

PHI   - 05 - DAL*

NOS* - 04 - CHI

KC*   - 03 - DEN

Remember last week when I stated that I hardly ever wager on the Chicago Bears? I said it was nothing personal but decided to put action on them last week to win. Obviously, they had to burn me and make me look like a biased football fan of the Windy City's finest. A couple lessons here: the Bears are a non-consistent joke that you should never wager on, and, you should probably not put any action on games played in London. It seems that teams play a different game script across the Atlantic. It probably comes down to travel, food and wanting to take in the sights. Maybe trying to find the perfect gift while souvenir hunting? In other disappointing, NFL gambling results, I'm getting concerned about the Kansas City Chiefs. If their defense doesn't improve and they can't solidify the run game, I will re-think taking action on all of their future spreads. Maybe it's that time for a mid-season assessment on sportsbook-related, team trust. 

NICK'S PICKS:

SEA -1.5  You would think if the Seahawks could beat the Rams by a point, that they could beat the hapless Browns by at least two ticks. After all, Russell Wilson is very good and Baker Mayfield is garbage. Nick Chubb seems to be the only bright spot on Cleveland's roster since they have no positive QB play. Seattle is on the road playing across the country, but the spread seems more than reasonable for them to attain.

LAC -6.5  This is a game that I lowered the spread down half a point. A touchdown victory for the Chargers is definitely within reason, especially since the Steelers have to start their third string QB and are without pass-catching RB Jaylen Samuels. Pittsburgh will also be playing on the road, across several time zones. Los Angeles should only have to be concerned about the Steelers' defense, which can look stout at times, but does lack consistency.

ATL  -2.5  Look, I know the Falcons' defense can only hold their own as much as a wet, paper bag... but their offense is actually potent. QB Matt Ryan throws the ball a ridiculous number of times every game and has the weapons to haul in most of those targets. The Cardinals are starting to look a little better as the season plays out, but they still give up a ton of passing yards, especially to the TE position. I think overall team experience will win this one for Atlanta.

NICK'S NIX PICKS(stay away from these games if you like your $$$):

(CAR -2 / TB +2)  Carolina has a great defense but they are on the road in a division matchup, against a rival QB with some very talented receivers. Ever hear of Chris Godwin and Mike Evans? These games make me nervous.

(WAS -3.5 / MIA +3.5)  Probably two of the worst teams in the league. Miami had an extra week to rest(coming off a bye) and is at home. Do I smell a skunk or is it an upset? 

(SF +3.5 / LAR -3.5)  A tough division game with very good defenses, even though the Rams' D has slipped a little over the last few weeks. Todd Gurley is also a little banged up and his game status is in question. I'm still waiting to see what the 49ers are all about, especially since they've been lucky and played the Browns, Bengals, Buccaneers and Steelers so far this season. If they play a +.500 team and get a win, maybe I'll buy more Fog City stock.

(TEN +2.5 / DEN -2.5)  If I had a gun to my head, I'd go with the Titans. Luckily, I don't play with firearms.

(NOS +1 / JAX -1)  Flip a coin. Oh wait, I only have plastic on me.

(HOU +4 / KC -4)  The Chiefs couldn't stop the Colts with home field advantage. They are at home again against Deshaun Watson, Deandre Hopkins and Will Fuller of the Texans. There should be a lot of offense. There should be...

NICK'S ULTRA MONEYLINE PARLAY PICKS:

(SEA -127 / MIN -168 / BAL -510)

(ATL -128 / DAL -337 / LAC -282)

CON-MAN CONFIDENCE(you can't get what I'm selling anywhere else):

* = WINNER

NEP* - 16 - NYG

CIN   - 15 - BAL*

DAL* - 14 - NYJ

PIT    - 13 - LAC*

DET   - 12 - GB*

SEA* - 11 - CLE

SF     - 10 - LAR*

ATL*  - 09 - ARI

HOU  - 08 - KC*

CAR* - 07 - TB

TEN* - 06 - DEN

NOS* - 05 - JAX

WAS  - 04 - MIA*

PHI   - 03 - MIN*

I can't be the only one wondering how the Giants were the only home team to win out of all the early games on Sunday(8). Even the Eagles' TNF victory over the Packers was a road win, which was originally predicted to go in the favor of the home team. Not until the Bears' mid-afternoon victory over the Vikings, did another home squad manage a triumph. Out of 15 contests this past weekend, the home teams finished 4-11. What does this mean about the NFL? What does this say about your overall skill at picking winners? Actually, this past week was a fluke, best erased from memory. Trying to make sense of it all and spending too much time re-assessing your techniques, is not a good habit to get into, especially after a week in which the results are particularly abnormal. Highly unlikely outcomes will usually equate to normalcy in the immediate future. So, what we learn from all this in a nutshell is, don't follow the patterns of victory(because there are none), and don't put all your eggs in one weekly basket.

NICK'S PICKS:

SEA -1.5  The Seahawks are great at running the ball and Russell Wilson ain't too shabby throwing the pigskin, as well as his fancy footwork, which he often brings to the table. The Rams have been showing some hiccups on defense the last couple of weeks and if they can't get Todd Gurley going in the ground game, the offense will start to look one-dimensional. Even great games from Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods and 500+ yards passing from Jared Goff couldn't save Los Angeles from losing at home last week against a week Tampa Bay defense. Seattle also seems to have momentum building. Besides, the word around town is that Russell Wilson heats up as the season progresses. 

CHI -5  Being from Chicagoland, I almost always never wager on action involving the Bears. Nothing personal, I just seem to get burned more times than not. However, after seeing their defense so far this season, I'm definitely going to pay attention to their game lines more consistently. I really don't think Chicago will put up that many points, especially with backup Chase Daniel getting the start. But, season starter and now injured QB Mitchell Trubisky is another reason I'm willing to wager on the Bears. I feel that the backup can and will do more for his team than the injured starter even if healthy, who is still early in his development. And if Chicago can get David Montgomery more involved in the run game, then they should be just fine. Oakland is a young, hit or miss mess, who I feel needs another season to grow with head coach Jon Gruden before action can be put down in their favor.

KC -11  The Chiefs are at home this coming week, but this time it's against a much weaker opponent than the Detroit Lions, who made week 4's contest very close. The Colts are next up on the list of teams to get exploited by aerial artisan, Patrick Mahomes... who actually happened to throw for zero TDs(if you can believe it) in the win over the Lions. Indianapolis is a middle of the road team, especially with WR T.Y. Hilton still nursing a bum hammy and on the questionable list. Starting QB Jacoby Brissett is basically surrounded by young, unproven talent at the WR position. Listen, Kansas City's offense is most likely one of the 3 best in the league. They are always a safe play for moneyline action, especially when included in parlays. Although, when it comes to spreads, their 'middle of the road' defense will be the deciding factor, as it comes down to the strength of the offense they will be facing. You maybe asking yourself, "Hey, isn't that the case with any game involving any team?". Well, when a team averages over 30 points of offense per week, it should automatically give you more confidence to risk hard-earned money, as odds will then usually tend to help instead of harm. This is also a reasonable point spread for a powerhouse team playing at home against the league's run-of-the-mill.

NICK'S NIX PICKS(stay away from these games if you like your $$$):

(GB +3.5 / DAL -3.5)  Will the real Dak Prescott please stand up?

(DEN +6.5 / LAC -6.5)  I still think Joe Flacco is a bum and Philip Rivers usually doesn't play well against the Broncos.

(CLE +3.5 / SF -3.5)  The Brown's RB Nick Chubb is coming off a great game against the Ravens, but the 49ers haven't allowed a rushing TD yet this season.

(ATL +5 / HOU -5)  Both teams have more than capable QBs and WRs. Both teams have defensive secondarys that suck. A shootout that will come down to big plays.

NICK'S ULTRA MONEYLINE PARLAY PICKS:

(PHI -704 / KC -565 / BAL -173)

(CHI -234 / SEA -124 / ARI +148)

CON-MAN CONFIDENCE(you can't get what I'm selling anywhere else):

* = WINNER

NEP* - 16 - WAS

IND   - 15 - KC*

NYJ   - 14 - PHI*

CLE   - 13 - SF*

MIN* - 12 - NYG

CHI* - 11 - OAK

ARI* - 10 - CIN

GB    - 09 - DAL*

BAL* - 08 - PIT

LAR  - 07 - SEA*

BUF  - 06 - TEN*

DEN  - 05 - LAC*

TB*  - 04 - NOS

ATL  - 03 - HOU*

JAX  - 02 - CAR*