I'm a college and professional sports nut from the Chicago area. Follow me on Twitter @Shawn_Foss
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We're just a few hours away from the draft when we can finally put all of the speculation behind us, but that means we still have a few hours to do more speculating! I've spent a lot of this week putting together the puzzle pieces to match the incoming fantasy rookies to the teams that would make the most sense for both them and the team. Today I turn my attention to the tight ends. Mind you, these landing spots ARE NOT predictions for where the players will be drafted. They're merely my thoughts on what the best landing spots are for all of the tight ends to maximize scheme fit, career development, and fantasy upside. Let's jump in and see who fits where.
(Player, College - Landing spot)
Mike Gesicki, Penn State - New Orleans Saints: Gesicki won't provide much as a blocker early on, but the Saints have managed to work around that in the past with Jimmy Graham and converted tight end Marques Colston. Gesicki is a freak athlete for his size, and he'll cause huge matchup problems in the red zone. He may be able to provide what the Saints hoped they were getting in Coby Fleener.
Dallas Goedert, South Dakota State - Seattle Seahawks: The Seahawks are in need of a starting tight end with Jimmy Graham off to Green Bay, and Goedert is the best option available to them. Goedert is a better blocker than Mike Gesicki, which will be critical with Seattle's perpetually poor o-line play, and he's a more dynamic receiver than the other top TE option Hayden Hurst. If he does end up in Seattle, Goedert would have low-end TE1 upside as a rookie.
Hayden Hurst, South Carolina - Detroit Lions: Speaking of Hayden Hurst, The Gamecocks' TE would do well to end up in the Motor City. The Lions are in need of a new tight end after letting Eric Ebron go to Indy. Hurst isn't as good an athlete as Ebron, but he's a better blocker and isn't as prone to the drops that have driven Lions' fans nuts from Ebron. Detroit did bring in Luke Willson and Levine Toilolo as free agents, an still have Michael Roberts as well, but Hurst would likely leapfrog all of them on the depth chart quickly.
Mark Andrews, Oklahoma - Carolina Panthers: Andrews could be a great fit as the heir apparent to Greg Olsen in Carolina. Olsen just re-signed with the Panthers on a 2-year deal, which is plenty of time for Andrews to work on his craft as a blocker. Andrews is a much better receiver than blocker at this point and could be a dangerous weapon in 2-tight end sets while Olsen is still around, or as the starter if Olsen were to get hurt again. The Panthers feature a fair amount of vertical passing to the tight end position in their scheme, which would give Andrews nice upside if he is eventually able to take the starting role.
Jaylen Samuels, NC State - New England Patriots: Samuels is a versatile, dynamic player and the Patriots are a team that has always been adept at finding ways to use those. Samuels was used all over the place at NC State - at tight end, as an H-back, as a regular halfback, and split out wide. He managed to post 1,000 scrimmage yards and 16 TDs in his final year with the Wolfpack as that jack-of-all-trades kind of player. Both Philly and New England stand out as good landing spots for Samuels, but I think he'll find a role more quickly with the Pats, and they're more likely than Philly to take full advantage of his versatility.
Ian Thomas, Indiana - Dallas Cowboys: Thomas is a good athlete for the tight end position, but he likely needs a year or two to fine tune his craft as both a blocker and receiver at the NFL level. Sitting behind the ageless Jason Witten would be a good place to do this from. It feels like Witten is never going to retire, but the end is coming, and the Cowboys need to be prepared for that eventuality.
Durham Smythe, Notre Dame - Baltimore Ravens: Smythe is a good blocker who is skilled in the short passing game as well. He won't have a ton of upside to be a top fantasy tight end and will likely spend most of his career as a grinding fantasy TE2 who can fill bye weeks. Think of Brent Celek or CJ Fiedorowicz. He'd be a good fit with the Ravens, whose current starting TE is Nick Boyle, but probably not a great fit with your fantasy team.
Jordan Akins, UCF - Miami Dolphins: Akins is a converted wide receiver who has the skills to be a dangerous receiving threat, which is something Adam Gase likes from his tight ends. He needs to improve as a blocker, but most rookie TEs don't produce anything in year 1 anyway and he can sit for a year and learn from veteran Anthony Fasano. As long as the Dolphins aren't awful this year and Gase is still there in 2019, Akins would have a chance to start making good on his potential in year 2.
That's all I've got for this year's rookie crop. Make sure to go back and check out the landing spot articles on the QBs, RBs and WRs as well. I also want to give a special shout out to Matt Waldman and the Rookie Scouting Portfolio. If you don't know what that is, go to mattwaldmanrsp.com and check it out. I watch a lot of football and gather info on the incoming players in a lot of different ways, but I'm far from a professional scout and the RSP consistently makes me feel more knowledgeable about the players coming into the league and the game of football in general. It's worth much more than the price Matt charges for it. If you have any qualms with any of the landing spots above, don't be a stranger. Reach out on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). Thanks for taking the time to read this and enjoy the draft!
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! It's finally Draft Day! In just a few hours, we'll be able to start seeing where the top prospects are actually going to start their pro careers. So...that means I still have a few more hours for some wishful thinking about landing spots. I tackled the QB and RB positions yesterday, and today I dive into what my favorite landing spots are for the WRs. Mind you, these landing spots ARE NOT predictions for where the players will be drafted. They're merely my thoughts on what the best landing spots are for all of the receives to maximize scheme fit, career development, and fantasy upside. It's likely that there will be at least one team that drafts multiple wide receivers, but for this exercise, I have every receiver listed going somewhere different. Let's dive in...
(Player, college - landing spot)
Calvin Ridley, Alabama - Carolina Panthers: Ridley didn't test well athletically at the combine, but he has the technical skill to get separation and was a consistent playmaker at Bama. In 2017 he pulled in nearly 31% of all of the receptions and more than 35% of the receiving yards put up by Alabama players. He also had a catch rate that was more than 10% higher than the average of the rest of the Bama receivers. The Panthers' offense helps create space for receivers since the defense always has to account for the chance that Cam runs the ball, and that will enhance Ridley's already impressive ability to get open. The Panthers lack a true number 1 receiver, and Ridley has the ability to become that guy if selected.
DJ Moore, Maryland - Dallas Cowboys: Moore is my favorite receiver in this class, his game pairs very well with Dak Prescott, and the Cowboys have a glaring need at WR after dumping Dez Bryant. While a lot of people are tempted to project a big, physical receiver here to replace what they lose in Dez, I think they'd be better served to draft a technician who wins in the short and intermediate areas of the field and after the catch. Moore is the best player in this draft who fits that description. Dak is best suited to a precision west coast passing game that can keep him in rhythm, and Dez just isn't a good fit for it. This is evidenced by the fact that Bryant had a catch rate below 53% in each of his two seasons with Prescott at QB. He had a catch rate above 60% in 4 out of 5 seasons with Romo under center (I don't count 2015 where Romo played just 3 games with Dez). DJ Moore would help the Cowboys' offense be more consistent than a player more similar to Dez would.
Courtland Sutton, SMU - Green Bay Packers: There has been a ton of hype around Sutton throughout draft season, but he's not as much of a finished product as that hype would have you believe. One thing he does have that not many of the receivers in this class do is true WR1 upside, and Green Bay playing with Aaron Rodgers is a place where I like his chances to make good on that. The Packers moved on from Jordy Nelson this offseason, and will undoubtedly be looking for a wide receiver within the first 2-3 rounds of this draft. Considering how valuable Jordy has been to the Packers over the years, they should look for the player with the most possible upside to replace him rather than a guy who will step in and contribute immediately. Sutton might be actually be both of those guys, but if he isn't ready to be a starter day 1, the Packers have a capable placeholder in Geronimo Allison.
James Washington, Oklahoma State - Arizona Cardinals: If you read my QB landing spots article, you already know I like Mason Rudolph to land in Arizona, so it's only fitting that I would like his favorite college receiver to join him. Washington has a ton of skill as a deep threat that can help offset the loss of John Brown to Baltimore, and if Rudolph lands there I'd expect Mike McCoy to install more of a vertical passing offense that Washington can thrive in. He's not just a one-trick pony though. James certainly has skills that will translate to the short and intermediate areas as well. He earned a black belt in karate when he was younger, which will help him with discipline, precision of movement, and understanding leverage. The Cardinals' receiving depth chart is very unsettled outside of Larry Fitzgerald, and I'd expect Washington to contribute immediately if he ends up in the desert.
Anthony Miller, Memphis - San Francisco 49ers: Miller is a bit of a tweener who could wind up in the slot or on the perimeter as a pro, but I think he would be best served starting his career in the slot. San Francisco is looking to upgrade their receiving unit now that they've found their franchise QB, and Miller is an explosive athlete who would be a good fit in their scheme. He would likely start in the slot with Pierre Garcon and Marquise Goodwin on the outside in 3-wide sets, but he could eventually develop into the replacement for soon-to-be 32 year-old Garcon in a couple years.
Deon Cain, Clemson - Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens have been very active in free agency in attempts to upgrade their wide receiver group. They've already signed John Brown, Michael Crabtree and Willie Snead, but they also showed they aren't content yet by offering a multiple year deal to Dez Bryant (that he rejected). Brown has battled a sickle-cell condition that has limited his ability to stay on the field after a promising start to his career, and Willie Snead was suspended 3 games last year due to a DUI charge and struggled to get his footing after returning. It's not far-fetched that Cain could vault into the WR2 role early in his rookie year. Cain fits the size/speed prototype for a perimeter receiver, and has ability in the vertical passing game that would pair well with Flacco's strong arm.
Christian Kirk, Texas A&M - Miami Dolphins: This pairing just makes too much sense to avoid it. Kirk is probably the best wide receiver in this draft that projects as strictly a slot receiver in the NFL, and the Dolphins just traded away their slot receiver who was the focal point of their passing game. Kirk can fill the same role at nearly the same level for a fraction of what the Browns just paid Jarvis Landry. If he lands in Miami, Kirk has 75+ reception upside as a rookie.
Dante Pettis, Washington - New England Patriots: Pettis lacks elite size and athleticism for a perimeter receiver, but he does just about everything well. He has great skill as a route runner, great hands, and is an excellent jump-ball receiver downfield as well. He was one of the best punt returners in the country last year, and he uses those skills effectively to gain yards after the catch also. The Patriots always seem to do a good job of finding bargains at the skill positions, and Pettis would certainly qualify as a guy who is expected to be drafted after the 3rd round of the NFL Draft. The depth chart might be a little crowded early on with the addition of Jordan Matthews and the returns of Julian Edelman and Malcolm Mitchell, but none of the roles are settled outside of Chris Hogan's. At the very least, Pettis would get on the field as a punt returner as a rookie, and would work his way up the depth chart from there. He could be a long-term starter.
DJ Chark, LSU - Philadelphia Eagles: Chark ran the best 40 time in this receiver class at 4.34, and can be used as a speedy deep threat while the rest of his game develops. The Eagles' offense takes plenty of deep shots, and traded starting WR Torrey Smith away this offseason. He wasn't heavily targeted last year, but there were some deep throws that went Smith's way. DJ would have a chance to compete with Mack Hollins and Mike Wallace for the role, but I expect Wallace to win that position battle. I like this landing spot more for Chark's development. Wallace signed for just one year, so if Chark is able to make strides in his game, he could step into the high upside starting role in year 2.
Michael Gallup, Colorado State - Indianapolis Colts: Gallup was prolific in his two years at Colorado State, averaging 88-1,345-10.5. He lacks the top end speed to develop into a number 1 receiver in the NFL, but he has the skills to develop into a solid WR2 as a possession receiver and would complement TY Hilton really well. He could quickly become one of Andrew Luck's favorite targets (assuming Luck ever returns).
Marcell Ateman, Oklahoma State - Denver Broncos: Ateman is a big receiver who tries to win with his physicality rather than technique. He's going to need to develop that technique a bit to succeed at the NFL level, and Denver would be a great place for him to sit and learn early on. The Broncos will need to get younger at WR soon with Demaryius at 30 and Manny Sanders at 31 years old, and DT would be a great mentor to help Ateman learn some of the nuance of the position. He has tantalizing upside if he's willing to put in the work to realize it.
Equanimeous St. Brown, Notre Dame - Oakland Raiders: St. Brown has gotten plenty of hype due to his dimensions and athleticism, but he has a lot of work to do on his game. Jon Gruden is an old school coach who will love the measurables ESB offers. If he lands in Oakland, St. Brown should get some usage as a red zone threat early on. The Raiders currently don't have a receiver taller than 6'2" on the roster, and St. Brown is 6'5". There's also an opportunity to progress into a starting role in the next couple years if he's able to develop his game since Jordy Nelson is going to be 33 years old this season.
DaeSean Hamilton, Penn State - Tennessee Titans: A lot of draft twitter would be up in arms if this happens since they love Taywan Taylor, but Hamilton might be able to step in as the slot receiver right away in Tennessee. His game profiles similarly to that of Cooper Kupp, and the Titans' new offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur held the same role with the Rams last year where Kupp was his slot receiver. The job wouldn't be handed to him though. Taywan was impressive when he got opportunities last year and Hamilton will have to beat him out to contribute much as a rookie. With that said, Hamilton has the talent to grow into the number two role opposite Corey Davis if the Titans choose not to re-sign Rishard Matthews at year's end.
Keke Coutee, Texas Tech - Buffalo Bills: I'm not sure that Coutee is necessarily a scheme fit in Buffalo but he has the ability to take the top off a defense, which is something that Buffalo's WR group could definitely use. He's skilled enough that he could develop into an outside receiver despite his diminuitive 5'10" height. Receiver is definitely a position of need for Buffalo after Zay Jones' offseason arrest and Jordan Matthews' departure to New England. Number 1 receiver Kelvin Benjamin is also coming off a season-ending injury. Injecting an exciting playmaker like Coutee into the offense would certainly help.
Richie James, Middle Tennessee State - Seattle Seahawks: James is an undersized 'tweener' who could find a fit in the slot or as a perimeter receiver, but that's an archetype that the Seahawks know pretty well. Both Tyler Lockett and Doug Baldwin also fit that mold. Adding James to 3-wide sets could make the Seahawks receivers interchangable and allow them to be more unpredictable as an offense. James is a skilled receiver who is dangerous in the open field, and Russell Wilson's improvisational skills behind the line create holes in the secondary where a player like James can make splash plays. There is a little bit of Antonio Brown to his game, and he could eventually become the top pass catcher in Seattle if they choose not to pay Doug Baldwin again when his contract is up in a few years.
Jordan Lasley, UCLA - Chicago Bears: Lasley struggled with some drops and maturity issues in college, but he has the game to be the long-term WR2 opposite Allen Robinson if he has those issues under control. It's no guarantee that Kevin White will ever stay healthy or regain the form he had before the injuries, and the Bears need to make other plans. Lasley is adept in the vertical game, but also has some shorter routes that he can win with in his repertoire. New head coach Matt Nagy's offense was explosive in KC last year, and adding playmakers like Lasley who fit it has been a priority this offseason for the Bears.
Allen Lazard, Iowa State - Atlanta Falcons: Lazard projects as a big slot receiver at the NFL level (or possibly even tight end), and the Falcons' slot receiver Taylor Gabriel left for Chicago this offseason. Gabriel and Lazard are very different players, and Lazard wouldn't be a great fit in the scheme that Shanahan used to run in Atlanta, but after a down year offensively in 2017 I expect Sarkisian to change things up a bit this year. The biggest benefit Lazard would provide is that he would help draw coverage away from Julio Jones in the red zone. With his 6'5" frame, you have to account for him in close, which should give Jones more room to operate. Lazard might develop into a fantasy asset down the road, but he would immediately be a boost to Atlanta's red zone offense.
J'Mon Moore, Missouri - Washington Redskins: Moore has the ideal size to play on the outside, where Washington is still a little unsettled. Jamison Crowder should be locked into the slot role, but Josh Doctson still hasn't made good on his potential and free agent acquisition Paul Richardson needs to show that he can continue to build on what he did last year in Seatte. Moore lacks deep speed and will be at his best working in the short and intermediate areas of the field. That should pair well with new QB Alex Smith, who is normally too risk averse to take shots downfield. Smith made strides as a deep thrower last year, but I'm not convinced that will continue as he transitions to a new offense and loses the playmaking speed of Tyreek Hill.
Daurice Fountain, Northern Iowa - Minnesota Vikings: Fountain is a raw athlete making the jump from FCS to the NFL. He's going to have to refine his technique as a receiver to make an impact at the NFL level, and where better for him to do that than Minnesota where they already have two receivers who are very technically sound? If he is able to develop as a receiver, he should be able to push Kendall Wright to the bench in 3-wide sets by year two. If Laquon Treadwell makes strides this year it would be more of an uphill climb for Fountain, but I'll believe it when I see it with Treadwell.
Byron Pringle, Kansas State - New York Giants: The Giants have a hole at WR for their 3-wide sets with Brandon Marshall being released, and I'm not sure Roger Lewis is the guy to fill it. Pringle is old for a prospect and had trouble with the law when he was younger, but he's had 4 or 5 years on the straight and narrow since. He runs crisp routes, has dynamic ability with the ball in his hands, and has good athleticism for an NFL WR. He also can be had with a day 3 pick, which will allow the Giants to fill some other holes before picking him.
That's all I've got for the wide receivers. There are so many players so close in skill level in this class that this was easily the toughest position to match players to teams. There is bound to be a lot of disagreement out there, so if you want to shout your disagreements at me feel free to reach out on twitter to do so (@Shawn_Foss). Also, go back and check out the QB and RB landing spot articles if you haven't already done so, and keep an eye out for the TE article later today. Enjoy the draft!
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! In case you didn't know it, the NFL Draft is almost upon us. We can finally put all of the mock drafts and misdirection by NFL front offices behind us over the next couple days. We will be able to quit guessing who is going where and start assessing how the new pieces fit with their new teams, but we're not quite there yet. So, I wanted to take a stab at picking my favorite landing spots for each of the top backs in the draft before it's too late. Mind you, these landing spots ARE NOT predictions for where the players will be drafted. They're merely my thoughts on what the best landing spots are for all of the backs to maximize scheme fit, career development, and fantasy upside. One other quick note: view this list as a complete picture rather than just looking at each player individually. For example, it's possible you think the Colts' RB job is the best available spot, and therefore it could be the best fit for 3 or 4 of the backs on the list. I'm only listing one back for each spot, so if I think the best fit in Indy is Nick Chubb, that means the starting job in Indy is crossed off the list for everyone else. With that in mind, let's dive into my favorite landing spots for the top RBs in the 2018 draft:
(Player, College - Favorite Landing Spot)
Nick Chubb, Georgia - Indianapolis Colts: Since I already gave this one away in the intro, I figure I may as well start here. Chubb is a special talent who could be a three-down back at the NFL level, and the Colts have a glaring need at the position. Indy's lack of receiving talent aside from TY Hilton will allow teams to stack the box at times, and Chubb is a more physical runner between the tackles than Saquon Barkley. He's a huge upgrade over Frank Gore who had the role last year, while also playing with a similar style to Gore. I believe Chubb will be a capable receiver at the NFL level, but if he falters in that part of his game the Colts will have a built-in fallback in Marlon Mack that they can use on 3rd downs. If Andrew Luck comes back healthy, Chubb's running ability would give the Colts the balance to be one of the most dynamic offenses in the league.
Saquon Barkley, Penn State - Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Bucs would be ecstatic if Barkley managed to fall to them at pick 7. That's extremely unlikely to happen with the Browns, Giants, Colts and Jets all picking ahead of them. Despite that, I think Tampa is the place where Barkley would shine the brightest. Head coach Dirk Koetter runs a vertical passing scheme and has plenty of deep threat weapons in Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson and OJ Howard. The deep passing threat will open up plenty of room for Barkley to operate both as a runner and a receiver. Despite his 233-pound frame and the 29 bench press reps he put up at the combine, Barkley does his best work in space rather than banging between the tackles. He'd have plenty of space to operate in Tampa's system. He also has the prerequisite pass protection skills necessary for a running back in a scheme like this one. The last time Koetter had a fully healthy three-down back was 2015, when Doug Martin totaled nearly 1,700 scrimmage yards and 7 TDs. Saquon is a much better receiver than Martin. He'd have legitimate top-5 RB upside in year 1 if he ended up in Tampa.
Derrius Guice, LSU - Cleveland Browns: Like Nick Chubb, Guice wasn't used a lot as a receiver in college, so there are some questions about whether or not he can be a true three-down back in the NFL. I think he can be, but like the Colts the Browns have a built-in answer to those questions in Duke Johnson. Guice is a physical runner who could very well wind up being the best back in this class, and Cleveland won't have to take him in the top four picks of the draft to get him.
Sony Michel, Georgia - Detroit Lions: The run game has been a problem in Detroit for a long time. They've had just one back break 1,000 rushing yards in a season since 2004 (Reggie Bush in 2013 with 1,006 yards). It's time to fix the problem, and Michel may be the way to do it. Part of the issue is that the Lions haven't had a true three-down back since maybe Kevin Jones (the back who broke 1,000 yards in '04). They've utilized a pass-first offense for most of the time that Matt Stafford has been the QB, so they've focused on getting running backs who are adept receivers. They've had guys like Reggie Bush, and Ameer Abdullah, and Theo Riddick, and Jahvid Best. The thing about Michel is that he is an adept receiver (one of the best in this class), but also an excellent runner, even between the tackles despite a slight frame for a feature back. Anyone who watched him run against Alabama in the National Championship could regale you with stories of his skill as an inside runner. He could have just the right combination of skills to finally give the Lions the feature back they've been seeking for over a decade.
Rashaad Penny, San Diego State - Denver Broncos: Denver is in need of a feature back, and Penny certainly checks most of the boxes you look for. He's big enough, fast enough, and a skilled receiver that can challenge the defense downfield. Denver was long known for the zone blocking scheme in the run game from the Mike Shanahan and Gary Kubiak days, but they have switched to a gap blocking scheme in more recent years, and this scheme is a much better fit for Penny. The one area of his game that could trip Penny up is his pass protection. If he struggles with this early on, it could keep him off the field. If he is able to improve that part of his game quickly, he could be a big-time producer in year one in Denver.
Ronald Jones, USC - New York Jets: Jones has the speed to be the home run threat the Jets currently lack at RB. We know by now that Isaiah Crowell is no more than just an average starter, and Bilal Powell has failed for years to win the featured role. RoJo is a dangerous runner who can put pressure on the edges of the defense to contain him. One question with Jones is his ability as a receiver. He wasn't asked to catch the ball much at USC, so it remains to be seen how good his skill set as a receiver is. If he shows skill as a pass catcher early on, his upside could be huge.
Royce Freeman, Oregon - Washington Redskins: At the very least, Washington needs an upgrade to their early down running game, and Freeman would provide an upgrade over Samaje Perine and Rob Kelley. Washington loves what Chris Thompson brings as a 3rd-down back, so Freeman would likely start out with just early-down work, but he catches the ball well enough to eventually establish himself as the every down guy. He'd have monster upside in year one if he landed in Washington and something happened to Thompson.
Bo Scarbrough, Alabama - Carolina Panthers: Christian McCaffrey's performance last year made it clear that it would be an uphill battle for him to ever become a workhorse back in the NFL. He averaged just 3.7 yards per carry while splitting time with Jonathan Stewart. He needs to be complemented by a power runner. The Panthers spent the 8th overall pick in the draft last year on CMC, so there is no way they would invest the kind of draft capital it would require to land a Guice, Chubb, or even a Royce Freeman to find that power back. Enter Bo Scarbrough. Bo is viewed as a one-dimensional sledgehammer of a runner, but he surprised in a big way with his athletic testing at the combine, showing explosion with a 40" vertical and 10'9" broad jump. Bo is exactly the type of player the Panthers need, and they can get him at a price that makes sense for them.
Kerryon Johnson, Auburn - Miami Dolphins: Johnson's skill as a physical runner isn't that far behind that of Nick Chubb and Derrius Guice. Kenyan Drake doesn't profile as a lead back at his size, and Frank Gore likely has just one more NFL season left in him. Gore would be a great mentor to help Johnson learn the nuance of playing the RB position in the NFL, and Drake and Kerryon would make a formidable tandem by late in 2018 or the start of the 2019 season.
Kalen Ballage, Arizona State - San Francisco 49ers: Ballage is one of the most unique prospects in this class. He has the size, speed and strength to be a special runner, but he really struggles with vision and patience, and doesn't always run with the power that he should. He's also one of the best receiving backs in this class. The 49ers are the team I think is best suited to take advantage of his skills. They don't have a back of Ballage's size that they can use as a goal-line and short yardage back, and Ballage is good enough as a receiver for the 49ers to use him in those spots and still be creative and unpredictable. If he ever develops as a runner, he also might be able to unseat Jerick McKinnon as the starter down the road.
Nyheim Hines, NC State - Philadelphia Eagles: It looks like Darren Sproles will be calling it a career, and even if he isn't, he's no longer under contract with the Eagles. The Eagles have an interesting group of RBs with Jay Ajayi, Corey Clement and Wendell Smallwood, but none of those guys have the game-breaking speed that Hines does. Hines isn't going to step in as a major part of the offense anywhere as a rookie, but the Eagles have innovative enough coaches to find ways to get his speed involved, and his role will grow if he has early success.
John Kelly, Tennessee - New York Giants: Most NYG fans are expecting the team to land Saquon Barkley with the second pick, but if you read my QB landing spot piece prior to this, you know I think Josh Rosen should be the pick there. I really like Kelly as a RB alternative for the Giants. Kelly's a violent runner with agility, and he's also an adept receiver who excels in the screen game. He's also sound in pass protection, which is important since both Eli Manning and Josh Rosen aren't very mobile. He could stand to be a little more explosive, but I think the team that lands Kelly will be pleasantly surprised.
Mark Walton, Miami (FL) - Arizona Cardinals: Walton was used as a feature back in college at Miami, but that will never be his role in the NFL. He's much more likely to be utilized as a 3rd-down back at the NFL level. I like Arizona as a landing spot because he'll be able to see the field a bit spelling David Johnson early on, and he won't have the pressure of being a key cog in the offense before he's ready. He'd also benefit a lot from having Johnson around to learn from. Walton has some upside, but he's more likely to realize his potential if he's not thrust into a big role right away.
Justin Jackson, Northwestern - Pittsburgh Steelers: Jackson would be a fantastic choice as Le'Veon Bell insurance. Bell and the Steelers still haven't hammered out a long-term extension, and with his current salary and asking price, the Steelers may choose to move on from Bell after the 2018 season. Jackson is one of the most underrated backs in this class. He won't cost too high of a pick for Pittsburgh, but has a chance to be a feature back with the playing style of Jamaal Charles. Jackson has shown that he can handle the rigors of a workhorse role despite not being a bigger back. He was an ultra-productive 4-year starter at Northwestern, tallying 1,388 scrimmage yards as a freshman, and at least 1,500 in each of his 3 other seasons. He will surprise if he gets the opportunity.
Akrum Wadley, Iowa - Buffalo Bills: The Bills already have LeSean McCoy and Chris Ivory, but Wadley would be a different style player than either of those guys. The Bills may be playing catch-up in the second half of games quite a bit this season, and Wadley would be a better option to spell Shady McCoy in those situations due to his receiving ability. He would also be a good complementary back to Ivory if anything happened to McCoy. Shady will be turning 30 this upcoming season and has just 2 years left on his current deal, so there is more upside for Wadley's role to grow once McCoy is gone.
Chase Edmonds, Fordham - New England Patriots: Edmonds might be able to step in and serve as the Dion Lewis replacement pretty early on in his career. I don't think he'd play as big a role this year as Lewis did last season, but he excels in some of the same areas. Edmonds isn't quite as elusive as Lewis, but he's still a shifty undersized back who can be a dangerous receiver out of the backfield. No team does a better job finding bargain RBs than the Patriots, and Edmonds would fit that mold as a day 3 draft pick. I'd expect Rex Burkhead to be the most productive Patriot running back this season, but Edmonds could certainly carve out a useful role that could help fantasy teams.
Chris Warren, Texas - Houston Texans: It's been rumored that Donta' Foreman won't be healthy to start the year and may have to open the season on the PUP list. If that's the case, Warren could be a valuable complement to Lamar Miller during the early part of the season. Warren is a very different player than his dad was (former Seahawks' back of the same name). He runs with effortless power and will bulldoze defenders in the open field. He converted to tight end late last season, but that was more because of his prowess as a blocker than receiving skill. I think his best position in the NFL will be running back. There are questions about his vision and acceleration, but his 20-yard shuttle and 3-cone drills at the combine were impressive even if he were 20-30 pounds lighter. If Warren lands with Houston and impresses while Foreman is out, it might be hard for the coaching staff to make him step aside once Foreman returns.
That's all I've got on the running back class until after the draft. If any of the players above do land on the team I've matched them with, that will likely be a good thing for both the player and the team. I did try to at least impart a little bit of knowledge about what type of back each player is. If you disagree with anything written above, don't hesitate to reach out via twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). I'm always up for a spirited debate. In the meantime, keep an eye out for my WR and TE landing spot articles that should be posted Thursday afternoon. Enjoy the draft!
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We've almost made it all the way through NFL Draft season, and Thursday night we can finally start to put all of the smokescreens, misinformation, and mock drafts behind us as we learn where these players are really going...but first, let's do just a little bit more speculating. The information you're about to read below isn't a mock draft. It isn't an indication of where these players are going to be drafted. It's simply me trying to fit the puzzle pieces together in a way that would be most beneficial to each of the players for their career development and long-term fantasy upside.
I will be posting breakdowns of the RB, WR and TE positions in the coming hours, but with the QBs in particular, a few of these landing spots have just about zero chance of actually happening without some really surprising trades. That's going to happen when a QB-needy team like Buffalo isn't a good landing spot for anyone. The Bills are going to draft a QB and will probably trade up to do it, but their weapons are so bad at this point I wouldn't want any QB saddled with that situation. With all of that in mind, here are my favorite landing spots for the top QBs in the 2018 draft.
(Player, College – Favorite Landing Spot)
Josh Rosen, UCLA - New York Giants: This landing spot would be a good one for Rosen, and for the Giants. New York is widely expected to draft Saquon Barkley at this point, but Rosen would be a better choice. The Giants don't plan on picking this high again any time soon, and Eli Manning is 37 years old and has led the team to just one winning season in the past 5 years. The time to put a succession plan in place is now.
Rosen is the safest QB in this draft, and the one who fits the Giants' offense best. He's a pure pocket passer who will play within the structure of the scheme, much like Eli, and he can throw with accuracy to all 3 levels of the field. He'll have exciting weapons in Odell Beckham Jr., Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram that will give him QB1 upside as soon as he takes over as starter. There's been a lot of talk about Rosen's attitude and varied interests outside of football being an issue for him, but I think that's nonsense. His personality kind of reminds me of Aaron Rodgers, and that hasn't been a problem for Rodgers' game at the NFL level. As a passer, the more apt comparison is Matt Ryan. If the Giants select Rosen, I think their QB position will be secured for the next decade.
Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma – Cleveland Browns: Mayfield's name has been popping up lately as a potential pick for the Browns at number 1, and that's who I hope they go with. If it isn't Mayfield, they should certainly go with Sam Darnold over Josh Allen. The reason I like Mayfield is because the Browns have the pieces to install more elements of a spread offense like the one Mayfield thrived in at Oklahoma.
Josh Gordon, Corey Coleman, Jarvis Landry and David Njoku make for a formidable group of receiving threats, and Duke Johnson is a dangerous receiver out of the backfield as well. Gordon and Coleman each have experience in a spread offense from their time at Baylor. The Browns also have a veteran mobile QB on the roster in Tryod Taylor who can help Mayfield learn some of the nuance of the position at the NFL level. I would expect Tyrod to open the season as the starter, but Mayfield should take over at some point near midseason and never look back.
Sam Darnold, USC - Los Angeles Chargers: This pairing is highly unlikely to become reality unless the Chargers make a big trade up, but it's one that is fun to think about. The biggest strength of Darnold's game is his ability to make accurate throws from difficult angles when the defensive pressure causes him to throw without his usual mechanics. The two NFL QBs who do this best are Philip Rivers and Matt Stafford. Since Stafford is 30 and Rivers is going to turn 37 this year, LA is the team that will need a replacement sooner. It's hard to say how many more years Rivers will play before deciding to hang it up and spend more time with his 7 kids (seriously, he has 7 of them), but playing behind Rivers for a year or two could really help Darnold hit his ceiling as a QB.
Darnold has a ton of upside, but he has a tendency to be a bit of a gunslinger and makes some questionable decisions. Rivers would be a great mentor to help Darnold learn to rein that in a little bit, and the weapons in LA should be good for several years with Keenan Allen, Hunter Henry, Tyrell Williams and Mike Williams around. It's easy to see the Favre-ian upside in Darnold, but if he doesn't improve his decision making, he could just as easily be the next Jay Cutler or worse.
Lamar Jackson, Louisville - New Orleans Saints: Jackson has more fantasy upside than any other QB in this class thanks to his rushing ability. He has the speed and elusiveness of Michael Vick, and is far more advanced as a passer entering the league than Vick was after playing in a pro-style offense under Bobby Petrino at Louisville.
The best-case scenario for Jackson would be landing on a team with a creative offensive coach who will build an offense around him to best maximize his considerable talents. There are 3 teams with coaching staffs that I would trust to do that: New England, Philadelphia, and New Orleans. The Eagles have Carson Wentz and Nick Foles still, so they don't have enough need at QB to spend the draft capital it'll take to land Jackson.
The other two teams should both be looking to life beyond their current Hall of Fame QBs. Either one would be a good landing spot for Jackson, but I give the nod to New Orleans because of the weapons he'll have to work with. In New England, Amendola is gone, Cooks is gone, Julian Edelman will be 32 years old, and Gronk is already hinting at retirement. The Saints have young stars in Alvin Kamara and Mike Thomas, and added another promising youngster in Cam Meredith. Because of that edge in surrounding talent, New Orleans is the place I most want to see Lamar.
Josh Allen, Wyoming – Pittsburgh Steelers: If NFL Draft scouts weren't so in love with size and raw arm strength from QBs, Allen to Pittsburgh might actually be realistic. Instead, the consensus is that Allen will be off the board in the top 10 picks, possibly even at number one. The Steelers, who currently pick at 28, aren't moving up to get him. Still, I think this is the spot that would best serve him in making good on his potential. Ben Roethlisberger was already talking about retirement after the 2016 season, so it's not hard to envision him walking away in the next year or two. Similarly to Allen, Roethlisberger is a big, physical, strong-armed QB who played his college ball in a smaller conference. He'd be a great player for Allen to learn from while he works on his game as the number 2 QB.
Pittsburgh is also a landing spot that wouldn't have nearly as much pressure as the other places he could go...the pressure of being a savior in Cleveland, the pressure of the media scrutiny in New York, or the pressure of having the franchise's hero QB in the front office in Denver. Buffalo is another spot that would lack that pressure, but Buffalo doesn't have Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster or a winning culture. Although this landing spot won't happen, I think it would be ideal for Allen.
Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State – Arizona Cardinals: The Cardinals' offensive coordinator Mike McCoy has said that they will tailor the offense to fit the quarterback they end up with, but McCoy's NFL roots trace back to the vertical passing 'Air Coryell' offense and Mason Rudolph has better accuracy on the deep ball than he does on short and intermediate throws.
The Cardinals could use an upgrade in weapons, but Larry Fitzgerald and a healthy David Johnson are a good starting point. With Sam Bradford slated to start, Rudolph likely will get some action this year when Bradford inevitably misses games. Rudolph is the best QB in the draft after the group of guys expected to go in the first round.
Kyle Lauletta, Richmond - New England Patriots: Lauletta is accurate and is a quick decision maker that really fits what the Patriots' offense does. His arm strength is questionable, but so was Brady's when he came into the league. The things Lauletta does well are a great fit for the scheme the Pats already run. He's also great in the play-action game, makes good decisions, and maneuvers the pocket very well while going through his progressions. I fully believe Brady will play out the two years remaining on his contract before he retires, and drafting Lauletta would allow for a seamless transition when that happens. He's got the upside to be a franchise QB.
Luke Falk, Washington State – Washington Redskins: Falk has a bit of a transition and learning curve ahead of him after playing his college career in Mike Leach's 'Air Raid' offense which is pretty much exclusively a shotgun spread offense. Playing under center and learning more pro concepts will be important parts of a successful transition. Falk lacks the arm strength to throw deep consistently, and current Washington starter Alex Smith is usually too risk averse to go deep himself, but has managed to put together a strong NFL career despite that. Smith is the ideal player for Falk to learn from as he makes the transition, and with Smith being almost 34 years old, he's a player Falk could supplant as starter in a couple years. He has the upside to be a similar game-managing starting QB who can win if surrounded with the right pieces and scheme.
That's all I've got for the QBs. I'm sure you'll disagree with at least some of what I've said above. Don't be a stranger; reach out on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). Be sure to check out the landing spot pieces on the RB, WR, and TE positions as well. They're sure to have just as many things you disagree with as this one. Enjoy the draft!