Welcome back to the Rookie Report! In case you didn't know it, the NFL Draft is almost upon us. We can finally put all of the mock drafts and misdirection by NFL front offices behind us over the next couple days. We will be able to quit guessing who is going where and start assessing how the new pieces fit with their new teams, but we're not quite there yet. So, I wanted to take a stab at picking my favorite landing spots for each of the top backs in the draft before it's too late. Mind you, these landing spots ARE NOT predictions for where the players will be drafted. They're merely my thoughts on what the best landing spots are for all of the backs to maximize scheme fit, career development, and fantasy upside. One other quick note: view this list as a complete picture rather than just looking at each player individually. For example, it's possible you think the Colts' RB job is the best available spot, and therefore it could be the best fit for 3 or 4 of the backs on the list. I'm only listing one back for each spot, so if I think the best fit in Indy is Nick Chubb, that means the starting job in Indy is crossed off the list for everyone else. With that in mind, let's dive into my favorite landing spots for the top RBs in the 2018 draft:
(Player, College - Favorite Landing Spot)
Nick Chubb, Georgia - Indianapolis Colts: Since I already gave this one away in the intro, I figure I may as well start here. Chubb is a special talent who could be a three-down back at the NFL level, and the Colts have a glaring need at the position. Indy's lack of receiving talent aside from TY Hilton will allow teams to stack the box at times, and Chubb is a more physical runner between the tackles than Saquon Barkley. He's a huge upgrade over Frank Gore who had the role last year, while also playing with a similar style to Gore. I believe Chubb will be a capable receiver at the NFL level, but if he falters in that part of his game the Colts will have a built-in fallback in Marlon Mack that they can use on 3rd downs. If Andrew Luck comes back healthy, Chubb's running ability would give the Colts the balance to be one of the most dynamic offenses in the league.
Saquon Barkley, Penn State - Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Bucs would be ecstatic if Barkley managed to fall to them at pick 7. That's extremely unlikely to happen with the Browns, Giants, Colts and Jets all picking ahead of them. Despite that, I think Tampa is the place where Barkley would shine the brightest. Head coach Dirk Koetter runs a vertical passing scheme and has plenty of deep threat weapons in Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson and OJ Howard. The deep passing threat will open up plenty of room for Barkley to operate both as a runner and a receiver. Despite his 233-pound frame and the 29 bench press reps he put up at the combine, Barkley does his best work in space rather than banging between the tackles. He'd have plenty of space to operate in Tampa's system. He also has the prerequisite pass protection skills necessary for a running back in a scheme like this one. The last time Koetter had a fully healthy three-down back was 2015, when Doug Martin totaled nearly 1,700 scrimmage yards and 7 TDs. Saquon is a much better receiver than Martin. He'd have legitimate top-5 RB upside in year 1 if he ended up in Tampa.
Derrius Guice, LSU - Cleveland Browns: Like Nick Chubb, Guice wasn't used a lot as a receiver in college, so there are some questions about whether or not he can be a true three-down back in the NFL. I think he can be, but like the Colts the Browns have a built-in answer to those questions in Duke Johnson. Guice is a physical runner who could very well wind up being the best back in this class, and Cleveland won't have to take him in the top four picks of the draft to get him.
Sony Michel, Georgia - Detroit Lions: The run game has been a problem in Detroit for a long time. They've had just one back break 1,000 rushing yards in a season since 2004 (Reggie Bush in 2013 with 1,006 yards). It's time to fix the problem, and Michel may be the way to do it. Part of the issue is that the Lions haven't had a true three-down back since maybe Kevin Jones (the back who broke 1,000 yards in '04). They've utilized a pass-first offense for most of the time that Matt Stafford has been the QB, so they've focused on getting running backs who are adept receivers. They've had guys like Reggie Bush, and Ameer Abdullah, and Theo Riddick, and Jahvid Best. The thing about Michel is that he is an adept receiver (one of the best in this class), but also an excellent runner, even between the tackles despite a slight frame for a feature back. Anyone who watched him run against Alabama in the National Championship could regale you with stories of his skill as an inside runner. He could have just the right combination of skills to finally give the Lions the feature back they've been seeking for over a decade.
Rashaad Penny, San Diego State - Denver Broncos: Denver is in need of a feature back, and Penny certainly checks most of the boxes you look for. He's big enough, fast enough, and a skilled receiver that can challenge the defense downfield. Denver was long known for the zone blocking scheme in the run game from the Mike Shanahan and Gary Kubiak days, but they have switched to a gap blocking scheme in more recent years, and this scheme is a much better fit for Penny. The one area of his game that could trip Penny up is his pass protection. If he struggles with this early on, it could keep him off the field. If he is able to improve that part of his game quickly, he could be a big-time producer in year one in Denver.
Ronald Jones, USC - New York Jets: Jones has the speed to be the home run threat the Jets currently lack at RB. We know by now that Isaiah Crowell is no more than just an average starter, and Bilal Powell has failed for years to win the featured role. RoJo is a dangerous runner who can put pressure on the edges of the defense to contain him. One question with Jones is his ability as a receiver. He wasn't asked to catch the ball much at USC, so it remains to be seen how good his skill set as a receiver is. If he shows skill as a pass catcher early on, his upside could be huge.
Royce Freeman, Oregon - Washington Redskins: At the very least, Washington needs an upgrade to their early down running game, and Freeman would provide an upgrade over Samaje Perine and Rob Kelley. Washington loves what Chris Thompson brings as a 3rd-down back, so Freeman would likely start out with just early-down work, but he catches the ball well enough to eventually establish himself as the every down guy. He'd have monster upside in year one if he landed in Washington and something happened to Thompson.
Bo Scarbrough, Alabama - Carolina Panthers: Christian McCaffrey's performance last year made it clear that it would be an uphill battle for him to ever become a workhorse back in the NFL. He averaged just 3.7 yards per carry while splitting time with Jonathan Stewart. He needs to be complemented by a power runner. The Panthers spent the 8th overall pick in the draft last year on CMC, so there is no way they would invest the kind of draft capital it would require to land a Guice, Chubb, or even a Royce Freeman to find that power back. Enter Bo Scarbrough. Bo is viewed as a one-dimensional sledgehammer of a runner, but he surprised in a big way with his athletic testing at the combine, showing explosion with a 40" vertical and 10'9" broad jump. Bo is exactly the type of player the Panthers need, and they can get him at a price that makes sense for them.
Kerryon Johnson, Auburn - Miami Dolphins: Johnson's skill as a physical runner isn't that far behind that of Nick Chubb and Derrius Guice. Kenyan Drake doesn't profile as a lead back at his size, and Frank Gore likely has just one more NFL season left in him. Gore would be a great mentor to help Johnson learn the nuance of playing the RB position in the NFL, and Drake and Kerryon would make a formidable tandem by late in 2018 or the start of the 2019 season.
Kalen Ballage, Arizona State - San Francisco 49ers: Ballage is one of the most unique prospects in this class. He has the size, speed and strength to be a special runner, but he really struggles with vision and patience, and doesn't always run with the power that he should. He's also one of the best receiving backs in this class. The 49ers are the team I think is best suited to take advantage of his skills. They don't have a back of Ballage's size that they can use as a goal-line and short yardage back, and Ballage is good enough as a receiver for the 49ers to use him in those spots and still be creative and unpredictable. If he ever develops as a runner, he also might be able to unseat Jerick McKinnon as the starter down the road.
Nyheim Hines, NC State - Philadelphia Eagles: It looks like Darren Sproles will be calling it a career, and even if he isn't, he's no longer under contract with the Eagles. The Eagles have an interesting group of RBs with Jay Ajayi, Corey Clement and Wendell Smallwood, but none of those guys have the game-breaking speed that Hines does. Hines isn't going to step in as a major part of the offense anywhere as a rookie, but the Eagles have innovative enough coaches to find ways to get his speed involved, and his role will grow if he has early success.
John Kelly, Tennessee - New York Giants: Most NYG fans are expecting the team to land Saquon Barkley with the second pick, but if you read my QB landing spot piece prior to this, you know I think Josh Rosen should be the pick there. I really like Kelly as a RB alternative for the Giants. Kelly's a violent runner with agility, and he's also an adept receiver who excels in the screen game. He's also sound in pass protection, which is important since both Eli Manning and Josh Rosen aren't very mobile. He could stand to be a little more explosive, but I think the team that lands Kelly will be pleasantly surprised.
Mark Walton, Miami (FL) - Arizona Cardinals: Walton was used as a feature back in college at Miami, but that will never be his role in the NFL. He's much more likely to be utilized as a 3rd-down back at the NFL level. I like Arizona as a landing spot because he'll be able to see the field a bit spelling David Johnson early on, and he won't have the pressure of being a key cog in the offense before he's ready. He'd also benefit a lot from having Johnson around to learn from. Walton has some upside, but he's more likely to realize his potential if he's not thrust into a big role right away.
Justin Jackson, Northwestern - Pittsburgh Steelers: Jackson would be a fantastic choice as Le'Veon Bell insurance. Bell and the Steelers still haven't hammered out a long-term extension, and with his current salary and asking price, the Steelers may choose to move on from Bell after the 2018 season. Jackson is one of the most underrated backs in this class. He won't cost too high of a pick for Pittsburgh, but has a chance to be a feature back with the playing style of Jamaal Charles. Jackson has shown that he can handle the rigors of a workhorse role despite not being a bigger back. He was an ultra-productive 4-year starter at Northwestern, tallying 1,388 scrimmage yards as a freshman, and at least 1,500 in each of his 3 other seasons. He will surprise if he gets the opportunity.
Akrum Wadley, Iowa - Buffalo Bills: The Bills already have LeSean McCoy and Chris Ivory, but Wadley would be a different style player than either of those guys. The Bills may be playing catch-up in the second half of games quite a bit this season, and Wadley would be a better option to spell Shady McCoy in those situations due to his receiving ability. He would also be a good complementary back to Ivory if anything happened to McCoy. Shady will be turning 30 this upcoming season and has just 2 years left on his current deal, so there is more upside for Wadley's role to grow once McCoy is gone.
Chase Edmonds, Fordham - New England Patriots: Edmonds might be able to step in and serve as the Dion Lewis replacement pretty early on in his career. I don't think he'd play as big a role this year as Lewis did last season, but he excels in some of the same areas. Edmonds isn't quite as elusive as Lewis, but he's still a shifty undersized back who can be a dangerous receiver out of the backfield. No team does a better job finding bargain RBs than the Patriots, and Edmonds would fit that mold as a day 3 draft pick. I'd expect Rex Burkhead to be the most productive Patriot running back this season, but Edmonds could certainly carve out a useful role that could help fantasy teams.
Chris Warren, Texas - Houston Texans: It's been rumored that Donta' Foreman won't be healthy to start the year and may have to open the season on the PUP list. If that's the case, Warren could be a valuable complement to Lamar Miller during the early part of the season. Warren is a very different player than his dad was (former Seahawks' back of the same name). He runs with effortless power and will bulldoze defenders in the open field. He converted to tight end late last season, but that was more because of his prowess as a blocker than receiving skill. I think his best position in the NFL will be running back. There are questions about his vision and acceleration, but his 20-yard shuttle and 3-cone drills at the combine were impressive even if he were 20-30 pounds lighter. If Warren lands with Houston and impresses while Foreman is out, it might be hard for the coaching staff to make him step aside once Foreman returns.
That's all I've got on the running back class until after the draft. If any of the players above do land on the team I've matched them with, that will likely be a good thing for both the player and the team. I did try to at least impart a little bit of knowledge about what type of back each player is. If you disagree with anything written above, don't hesitate to reach out via twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). I'm always up for a spirited debate. In the meantime, keep an eye out for my WR and TE landing spot articles that should be posted Thursday afternoon. Enjoy the draft!
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