Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’re at the quarter turn of the season (assuming the coronavirus doesn’t derail things), and the rookie picture is starting to come clearer. Each week we’ll have a better idea of what normal expectations will look like for the rookie crop.  We were treated to some dazzling rookie performances from the wide receivers in week 4, from CeeDee Lamb’s 2 touchdowns, to Brandon Aiyuk’s acrobatic hurdle, to Justin Jefferson’s second straight 100-yard game. There have been plenty of intriguing rookie wideouts this season. Many of them are listed as borderline options this week, so please keep in mind that all players under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. I also want to mention that anywhere that you see fantasy points allowed referenced, it’s based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 5…

 

Rookies to Start:

 

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC (Wk. 5: vs. LV): If you drafted Edwards-Helaire in the first round of your fantasy draft, the last few weeks probably haven’t been what you were hoping for from him. After a breakout debut, CEH hasn’t found his way back to the end zone and has finished outside of the top-20 running backs in 2 out of 3 weeks. Do not despair. Edwards-Helaire has still averaged 20 touches per game in the last 3 weeks and seen a larger share of the running back touches each week. He’s also through the toughest part of his schedule and hasn’t finished lower than the RB26 in PPR scoring formats. This week he gets his easiest matchup to-date. The Raiders have allowed more fantasy points to the running back position than any team in the league and they rank 30^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. This week will be a great opportunity for a big game out of CEH. He should be worth his price tag in DFS formats and has top-5 RB upside this week in a great matchup. If you can find an impatient fantasy player who is upset by Edwards-Helaire’s start, I would recommend sending a trade offer. His value is about to go up.

 

RB James Robinson, JAX (Wk. 5: @Hou.): Most people had no idea who James Robinson was before he took the starting gig in Jacksonville, but he has definitely taken the job and run with it. He’s the RB6 for the season and has posted an impressive 40 receiving yards per game. This week he gets to square off with a Texans’ defense allowing the 4^th-most RB points per game and ranking 29^th in run defense DVOA. The Texans actually haven’t given up much receiving production to opposing backs, allowing just 3.3 catches (T-2^nd fewest) and 25.5 receiving yards (6^th-fewest) to the position per game, but a lot of that can be explained by the fact that Houston has mostly played from behind and their opponents have been able to lean on the run game. Houston’s opponents have been trailing on the scoreboard for just 24% of their offensive plays. This week the Texans are actually favored by 6, so if they get ahead, I’d expect Robinson to eclipse those receiving averages that Houston has been allowing to RBs. They’re also a bad enough run defense that Robinson will make some hay on the ground as well. He’s a locked-in RB2 this week.

 

WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Wk. 5 vs. NYG): The Cowboys have been one of the most prolific passing offenses in the league so far, and Lamb has been the clear #2 receiver in the target pecking order. There has been an obvious effort to get the ball into Amari Cooper’s hands this season as he’s averaged nearly 13 targets per game (on pace for 200(!) targets), but Lamb has been seeing a healthy 7 targets per game himself. There’s bound to be a week at some point where Michael Gallup gets the squeaky wheel treatment and the team forces him some targets, but Dallas throws so much I don’t think that will have much impact on Lamb when it happens. This week Dallas faces the Giants, who have been allowing the 13^th-most points per game to WRs. The one functional part of their pass defense has been James Bradbury, who has limited Robert Woods and Allen Robinson each to less than 40 yards this season. This week Bradbury will be shadowing Amari Cooper. That should help get Lamb a little more work Sunday, and he should be a safe WR2/3 this week with Dallas’s implied total sitting at a robust 31.75 points.

 

WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (Wk. 5: @Sea.): Jefferson’s seems to have fully vanquished Bisi Johnson and taken over the #2 receiver role in Minnesota with his breakout performances over the last two weeks. Jefferson played mostly in the slot in college at LSU, so it seemed like early production wouldn’t be easy to come by in an offense that has 3+ receivers on the field for just 44% of their snaps, but over the last two weeks, Jefferson has made it clear he can thrive as a perimeter receiver. This passing game still runs through Adam Thielen, but this week the Vikings are going to have to be able to put up some points if they want to keep pace with the Seahawks explosive offense. Minnesota is a 7-point underdog this week, but still has an implied total of 25.25 points. I’d expect them to try to run the ball when they can to keep the ball out of Russell Wilson’s hands, and they may have some success there with box safety Jamal Adams sidelined, but there should be plenty of passing volume for Jefferson to be a safe WR3 with upside this week. No team has coughed up more fantasy points to opposing WRs than the Seahawks so far. He should be a bargain at his $5,500 DraftKings price tag.

 

Borderline Rookies:

 

QB Justin Herbert, LAC (Wk. 5: @NO): Herbert finally got the nod from the coach as the full-time starter with Tyrod Taylor recovered from his chest injury, and it would’ve been coaching malpractice if he hadn’t. Herbert has thrown for at least 290 yards every week and kept his team in every game he’s played. They’re 0-3 in Herbert’s starts, but are yet to lose by more than 1 score. New Orleans’ best cornerback Marshon Lattimore is questionable for this week, and this Saints’ defense has allowed multiple TD passes and at least 21 fantasy points to every QB they’ve faced so far. Herbert has shown himself to be a solid QB2 option, and he’ll have nice upside for more this week if the Saints are without Lattimore.  As a TD underdog, Herbert should again be throwing a fair amount.

 

QB Joe Burrow, CIN (Wk. 5: @Bal.): Burrow’s matchup this week sounds daunting on paper, but the Ravens haven’t been a death sentence for QBs so far this season. Baltimore has allowed 275+ passing yards in 3 straight games including more than 300 to Dwayne Haskins last weekend. Burrow has topped 300 yards in each of the last 3 weeks, and the Ravens secondary is a bit banged up with Marcus Peters and Jimmy Smith both missing some practice time this week. It’s still a talented secondary, and Burrow will have an uphill battle to go over 300 for the 4^th-straight week, but he’s not a bad QB2 option this week. The Bengals will likely have to throw often as a 13-point underdog.

 

RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (Wk. 5: @Cle.): Obviously most people with Taylor on their rosters are going to be starting him this week, but I wanted to single him out as someone who shouldn’t be a slam-dunk starer. We knew when Marlon Mack went down that Nyheim Hines was still going to be heavily involved in this offense, especially in any weeks where the Colts play from behind. What we didn’t know was how big a role Jordan Wilkins was going to play. Wilkins has had at least 9 carries in each of the last 3 games and has taken a chunk out of Taylor’s weekly ceiling. The rookie has still handled a sizable workload, but as we saw last week, if he doesn’t get in the end zone he’ll have a hard time finishing as a top-20 back for the week. Cleveland isn’t a great matchup for opposing backs. Ezekiel Elliott is the only back to reach 50 rushing yards against them. Several backs have had success catching the ball out of the backfield against the Browns, but Taylor has been targeted just 4 times in the last 3 weeks. You can’t count on passing game usage. I think Taylor projects as a flex option this week that needs to get in the end zone to return real value to your lineup.

 

RB Antonio Gibson, WAS (Wk. 5: vs. LAR): Gibson has been making the most of his opportunities each week, but at some point you’d like the see the Football Team give him more of them. Peyton Barber has been pushed to the bench, but JD McKissic continues to out-snap him each week. Gibson is averaging 16 PPR points per game over the last 3 weeks and has found the end zone in each game, but he’d have RB1 upside if he was unleashed in a workhorse role. The Rams have been a beatable run defense, ranking 28^th in run defense DVOA, but it’s hard to consider Gibson an auto-start while playing just half the snaps. He should be a safe flex play this week, and his price tag of $5,000 on DraftKings makes him an interesting bargain option this week.

 

RB Josh Kelley, LAC (Wk. 5: @NO): Austin Ekeler’s trip to the IR should be good news for Josh Kelley’s fantasy outlook, but he fumbled in a crucial spot in each of the last two games and it’s opened the door for the now healthy Justin Jackson to work his way into the mix. Kelley played 30 snaps to Jackson’s 21 last week, and I’d expect a similar split going forward unless Kelley can stop fumbling and can separate himself from Jackson on the field. New Orleans has been one of the tougher run defenses in the league, ranking 4^th in run defense DVOA, so Kelley will probably have to make things happen in the receiving game to have a strong week. The Saints have only allowed 31 receiving yards per game to opposing backs though. New Orleans is favored by a touchdown, so game script should keep the Chargers throwing a bit. I’d view Kelley as an upside RB3 this week despite a less than ideal matchup.

 

WR Laviska Shenault, JAX (Wk. 5: @Hou.): Shenault finally had the kind of week we’ve been looking for out of him last Sunday with 91 yards on 6 touches (5 receptions), and this week he faces a Houston defense that is fresh off of allowing Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson to combine for 12 catches and 217 yards. I’d like to see the Jaguars give Shenault more of a full-time role, and he still has a floor somewhere around 40-50 scrimmage yards and 8 or so PPR points, but I like his chances to post a ceiling week in this one. He should match up with the burnable Vernon Hargreaves for most of the game, and I love his upside as a WR3 this week.

 

WR Jerry Jeudy, DEN (Wk. 5: @NE): This doesn’t shape up as a great week for Jeudy, but volume alone could get him through to a nice fantasy week. Brett Rypien is likely to be under center again, and he won’t have much to work with outside of Jeudy. Noah Fant and KJ Hamler will be sidelined in this one, so that leaves Tim Patrick and probably DaeSean Hamilton as the other receiving options. It’s a little worrying that Jeudy was limited to just 4 targets in Rypien’s first start with the Broncos throwing 31 times (Jeudy averaged 8 targets per game in the first 3 weeks), but he did find the end zone and top 60 receiving yards. I’d expect Rypien to look his way more often in this one. Josh Jackson is a tough matchup in the slot where Jeudy plays 70% of his snaps, but the Pats have given up lines of 7-67-1 to Tyler Lockett and 6-84-1 to Hunter Renfrow this season. Jeudy should make for a nice WR3 in a week where there should be plenty of volume for him.

 

WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF (Wk. 5: vs. Mia.): Aiyuk could get Jimmy Garoppolo back this week at QB, and he faces a Miami defense that ranks just 28^th in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 8^th-most WR points per game so far. On the surface, it looks like a great matchup, but he may have to tangle with the best part of the Dolphins’ secondary in Xavien Howard. The 49ers only target their WRs on a league-low 39% of their pass attempts, and with Garoppolo and Mostert back this could be a game where they get ahead and lean on the run game. Howard was torched by DK Metcalf last week, so there is some hope for Aiyuk, but the limited volume makes me hesitant to rank him higher than Jeudy or Shenault in week 5.

 

WR Tee Higgins, CIN (Wk. 5: @Bal.): As I mentioned under Burrow above, the Ravens’ secondary is banged up this week and they haven’t been as dominant as they were a year ago. Higgins is working as a full-time WR in this offense, playing ahead of AJ Green, and the Ravens have ranked a pretty average 14^th in pass defense DVOA. He isn’t a guy I would target in DFS lineups, but with the pass-happy game script the Bengals are likely to be dealing with, he should be a passable WR3 option. Baltimore has allowed the 20^th-most WR points per game so far.

 

WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (Wk. 5: @Ten.): This game is up in the air at the moment thanks to the Titans’ coronavirus outbreak, and that probably doesn’t help Davis if they do in fact play. He played a lot last week with Cole Beasley battling through a foot injury and being limited to just 18 snaps. John Brown has also been a bit hobbled at practice this week with a calf injury. Having the game on Monday or Tuesday would give those guys a little extra time to get right and would hurt Davis’s opportunity. The rookie has shown he can perform when called upon, and Tennessee isn’t a pass defense to fear, allowing the 12^th-most WR points per game. Buffalo is averaging over 330 passing yards per game, so Davis has some upside as a desperation WR3 even with everyone else healthy, but if Beasley or Brown will be limited or sit out, Davis should move up your rankings this week. If your league doesn’t allow you to designate replacement players ahead of time though, it’ll be tough to trust anyone in this game.

 

Rookies to Sit:

 

RB JK Dobbins, BAL (Wk. 5: vs. Cin.): Dobbins has been a victim of a crowded backfield so far this year, and I don’t see a lot of reasons why that will change in the immediate future. The Ravens have played in a few lopsided wins already, and still Dobbins has failed to top 43% of the snaps played or 7 touches in any game this season. The Bengals are another opponent that the Ravens should handle easily, and I know the RB pickings can be slim out there this week, but I’d stay away from Dobbins outside of the deepest of leagues this week. Cincy has allowed the 12^th-most RB points per game on the year, but that total is split 3 ways for Baltimore.

 

RB Cam Akers, LAR (Wk. 5: @Was.): Akers is practicing as of Thursday, but his status for Sunday’s game remains in doubt. If he plays, I think you have to wait a week to see how he is re-integrated into the backfield. The Rams look to be a true committee with no clear lead option, and that’s a situation you typically want to avoid in fantasy. Washington has allowed the 10^th-fewest RB fantasy points per game on the year, and Akers likely won’t see enough work to post a big week this Sunday. Like with Dobbins, those RB points are split three ways. I wouldn’t consider him outside of a desperation scenario.

 

RB Zack Moss, BUF (Wk. 5: @Ten.): It looks like Moss will be ready to return to action this week, assuming the Bills still have a game to play, but I would take a wait-and-see approach before putting him back in your lineup. If the Bills and Titans play at all, it won’t be until Monday or Tuesday, and that happens only if there are no more positive COVID tests for Tennessee. If your league doesn’t allow you to designate a replacement player prior to this week’s games, I wouldn’t even consider Moss. He may return to his red zone role and faces a defense that has allowed the 9^th-most RB points per game so far, but Devin Singletary performed well as the workhorse back over the last two weeks. There’s no guarantee that we go right back to the same workload split we were seeing before Moss’s injury, and Moss wasn’t exactly lighting up the fantasy box scores before he got hurt – he averaged 7.7 PPR points per game the first two weeks. I would like to see how it plays out before re-inserting Moss into any lineups, especially considering the COVID uncertainty surrounding this game.

 

RB Anthony McFarland, PIT (Wk. 5: vs. Phi.): McFarland saw his first real game action in week 3 and flashed the kind of speed that the Steelers coveted him for, tallying 42 yards on 6 carries and a 7-yard reception. That performance came against the Texans though, and they rank just 29^th in run defense DVOA. The Eagles rank a passable 15^th in that stat, but they were 3^rd in 2019 and only Darrell Henderson has made it to 60 scrimmage yards against Philly so far this season. I know it’s a dire week at running back but counting on McFarland to see more work than he did in week 3 is a fool’s errand. This is still James Conner’s backfield.

 

WR Henry Ruggs, LV (Wk. 5: @KC): Ruggs seems likely to return this week while Bryan Edwards likely will remain sidelined, but this is not a great spot for him to have a breakout game. The Chiefs have allowed the fewest WR points per game and rank 1^st in pass defense DVOA. Ruggs has the kind of obscene speed that can help him post a useful fantasy week in 1 play, but the Raiders don’t involve the receivers enough in their passing attack to make you feel good about starting Ruggs this week. The Raiders throw just 40.1% of their passing targets in the direction of their wideouts. Only the 49ers WRs have a lower target share.

 

WR John Hightower, PHI (Wk. 5: @Pit.): Hightower has led the Eagles in WR snaps each of the past two weeks with the rest of the position group banged up, but it’s led to just 4 catches and 41 yards. As of Thursday, Alshon Jeffrey isn’t practicing, DeSean Jackson was a limited participant, and JJ Arcega-Whiteside was practicing in full. Even if all 3 missed this game, I would tell you not to play Hightower against the Steelers. Pittsburgh ranks 8^th in pass defense DVOA. If D-Jax plays, Hightower would likely see a significant drop in snap share.

 

WR Chase Claypool, PIT (Wk. 5: vs. Phi.): With Diontae Johnson practicing in full ahead of this week’s game, Claypool may have missed his window to shine when the Tennessee game was pushed back. He is likely to go back to playing limited snaps sharing the WR3 role with James Washington on Sunday. The Steelers have tried to get him involved in the game-plan each week, and he did record an 80-yard touchdown in week 2 against Denver, but Philly has allowed just one pass play of 40+ yards so far this year. Claypool is no more than a low-volume TD dart throw against an opponent that has allowed just 2 receiving TDs to opposing WRs thus far.

 

WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, CLE (Wk. 5: vs. Ind.): With KhaDarel Hodge sidelined in week 4 due to a hamstring injury, it was Peoples-Jones who slid into the WR3 role for the Browns, playing 44% of the offensive snaps. He wasn’t targeted in the game, but you might chalk that up to the Browns playing with a large lead for much of the day (Cleveland led by multiple scores for all but one offensive play in the last 2 and half quarters of the game). Hodge was placed on injured reserve for at least the next few weeks, but I wouldn’t view DPJ as a guy to add even in deeper leagues right now. Hodge was targeted just 6 times in the first 3 weeks of the season in this same role, and no team plays a smaller share of their snaps with 3+ WRs on the field than the Browns (36%). Cleveland also just called up Taywan Taylor from their practice squad, and he may steal some snaps from DPJ as well. Taylor caught 37 passes for Tennessee just two seasons ago and was a favorite of fantasy twitter. Add in the fact that Cleveland’s opponent this week, the Colts, rank 2^nd in pass defense DVOA and it’s an easy call to leave Peoples-Jones on the waiver wire this week.

 

TE Harrison Bryant, CLE (Wk. 5: vs. Ind.): Bryant has continued to see his snap share and fantasy output increase each and every week this season, and as mentioned with Peoples-Jones, the Browns don’t have 3+ receivers on the field very often. This all bodes well for Bryant moving forward, but there are a couple of factors that don’t: the looming return of David Njoku and a matchup this week with the Colts. Njoku has been designated to return from injured reserve and could even be ready to suit up in week 5. Even if he doesn’t return this week, The Colts have allowed the fewest TE points per game in the league so far and have faced off with Chris Herndon, Kyle Rudolph, Jimmy Graham, and Tyler Eifert. Njoku’s return would probably at least cut Bryant’s snaps in half, and if Njoku is out one more week even 5 PPR points out of the rookie TE would be considered a successful week in this matchup.

 

TE Adam Trautman, NO (Wk. 5: vs. LAC): Trautman was a popular sleeper pick for last week as Jared Cook was sidelined by a groin injury, but things didn’t exactly work out in his favor against the Lions. Josh Hill served as the TE1, and Trautman wasn’t even targeted once. He was even out-snapped by another tight end, Garrett Griffin, who has one career reception that came in 2017. Even if Cook sits again this week, you can likely find more upside elsewhere. The Chargers have allowed the 10^th-most TE points per game on the season, but I wouldn’t be confident that Trautman can capitalize on the matchup.

 

Rookies on Byes in Week 5: RB D’Andre Swift, DET, RB AJ Dillon, GB, WR Quintez Cephus, DET

 

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

 

RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn, TB (Wk. 5: @Chi.): Vaughn got his first real action of the season in week 4, and he made the most of it, scoring a late touchdown and finishing with 10.6 PPR points on just 19 snaps. The Bucs’ offense is very banged up heading into this week’s game in Chicago, and that should benefit Vaughn. LeSean McCoy has been ruled out, Leonard Fournette is doubtful, and a number of pass-catchers will be out as well for this game. Ronald Jones should handle the bulk of the rushing work, but he has been ineffective as a receiver out of the backfield. Jones has 12 catches out of 18 targets for just 57 yards (3.2 yards per target). The Bears haven’t given up a lot of receiving production to opposing backs thus far (4.5 receptions and 33.5 receiving yards per game), but with the limited weapons, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Vaughn log 5+ targets and a handful of carries. If you’re hamstrung at running back in a deep PPR league, he’s a viable fill-in this week, and he costs just $1,000 on DraftKings for the Thursday night showdown slate. A strong performance here could open up more opportunities for him in the weeks to come.

 

RB DeeJay Dallas, SEA (Wk. 5: vs. Min.): Dallas saw his first action of the season in week 4 with Carlos Hyde sidelined, and it looks like Hyde will be out again this week. Dallas split backup work with Travis Homer, but he did manage to put up 23 yards on 4 touches. He won’t be a worthwhile play in any formats this week, but he is worth monitoring and possibly even stashing in deeper dynasty formats. Chris Carson has been battling a number of injuries and Dallas would be forced into a bigger role if anything happens to Carson.

 

WR Darnell Mooney, CHI (Wk. 5: vs. TB): Mooney is listed as questionable for this game, but if he plays, he’s going to be an intriguing option in deep leagues and DFS formats. The changing of the guard at QB in Chicago looks like it will be a good thing for Mooney. He was targeted 8 times by Mitch Trubisky in 2+ games. He was targeted 9 times by Nick Foles in week 4. This week the Bears face a tough matchup against a Bucs’ defense that ranks 4^th in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 12^th-fewest WR points per game, but their best corner Carlton Davis will likely be shadowing Allen Robinson. Davis has regularly been used to shadow big-bodied #1 WRs like Robinson and has had success, limiting Michael Thomas in week 1 (3 catches for 17 yards), and limiting De’Andre Hopkins late last year (5 for 23). Robinson is still going to command targets, but Mooney will have a much more favorable matchup and should see plenty of work himself. If Mooney doesn’t play, this would then apply to Anthony Miller. Mooney could be a passable WR3 in deeper leagues this week and is a sneaky DFS option as well if he plays.

 

WR Tyler Johnson, TB (Wk. 5: @Chi.): Johnson has quietly been on the field for over 30% of the Bucs snaps each of the last two weeks. It hasn’t led to any targets, but the Bucs are quickly running out of weapons ahead of the rookie. With Chris Godwin and Justin Watson already ruled out for this week, and Mike Evans a true game time-decision, Johnson seems likely to play a large number of snaps Thursday night. Brady is bound to look his way at least a few times in this one. If Evans is out, the group of weapons will consist of Scotty Miller, Gronk, Ronald Jones, Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Cameron Brate, and Johnson. The Bears’ defense has been solid against the pass (they allow the 3^rd-fewest WR points per game), but you could do worse than Johnson at his minuscule $200 price tag in the Thursday showdown slate on DraftKings.

 

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and keep an eye out for updates on the Bills/Titans game. You don’t want to leave an inactive player in your lineup. Feel free to hit me up on twitter if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

 

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! This fantasy season has become a weekly exercise in dodging landmines, whether they be of the injury or COVID variety, and now that bye weeks are here, it gets even messier. This is the 3^rd week in a row with a game in question due to COVID-19, and with the state of the running back position, we really need every game on the slate to happen. 8 of the top 16 running backs by preseason ADP will be sidelined either by injury or a bye, and one of the 8 that will be playing is Kenyan Drake (Drake is currently the RB32 in PPR scoring despite not missing a game). This is a week where you’re going to see some dicey flex options that make it into lineups, especially in deeper leagues. There are a few rookies that may be able to help. Keep in mind that all rookies listed below at the same position and same header are listed in the order that I would play them this week. Also, any references to fantasy scoring ranks are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive in and talk about what to expect in week 6…

 

Rookies to Start:

 

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC (Wk. 6: @Buf.): This week has been a tough one for folks with Edwards-Helaire on their rosters. It started with Darrel Williams taking 40% of the backfield snaps last Sunday against the Raiders and ended with Kansas City signing Le’Veon Bell, who will undoubtedly take a huge chunk out of CEH’s workload. Luckily for Edwards-Helaire, Bell will not be active this week, and CEH will get at least one more chance to shine. Despite ceding more snaps to Williams last week, Edwards-Helaire still had at least 18 combined opportunities (carries + targets) for the 5^th straight week and had 6+ targets for the third time in 4 games. Buffalo was one of the strongest defenses in the league in 2019, but they have struggled early in 2020. The Bills rank 22^nd in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. The Chiefs have a gaudy implied total this week of 31 points, so there is a solid chance that CEH finds paydirt. If you have him, he should be in your lineup. If he does have a big game, it would be wise to test the market and attempt to trade him after the week in redraft formats if you can get someone to pay up for him.

 

RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (Wk. 6: vs. Cin.): We haven’t seen a true breakout game from Taylor yet, but we have seen a decent amount of consistency. He’s scored at least 13 PPR points in 4 out of 5 games this year but hasn’t reached 20 in any of them. That could change this week. This matchup should play to Taylor’s strengths. Cincinnati has done a good job of limiting receiving production by opposing backs, but Taylor doesn’t do much of his damage through the air. He’s tallied just 6 catches in the past 4 games. The Bengals have given up the 3^rd-most RB rushing yards per game so far, and The Colts are favored by 7.5 points this week. A positive game script and an injury to Jordan Wilkins means Taylor will likely see his highest snap share of the season, and may finally have a game where he’s able to get into a rhythm running the ball. He should be a very safe RB2 this week with upside for more.

 

RB James Robinson, JAX (Wk. 6: vs. Det.): Robinson has continued to show himself to be a weekly fantasy starter in recent weeks, but his ceiling continues to be limited by the Jaguars’ overall struggles. During Jacksonville’s current 4-game losing streak, the rookie has played more than 60% of the snaps just once, with the team preferring to give Chris Thompson more run when they are trailing. Robinson has made the most of the snaps he is playing, finishing among the top-30 finishers at the position in each of the past 4 weeks, and in the top-10 twice. This week he faces off with Detroit, who ranks 31^st in run defense DVOA, so it’s a juicy matchup, but the Jaguars are again underdogs. If they can keep this game in a neutral or positive game script, Robinson has top-5 upside this week. In any case, he should be a locked-and-loaded RB2 in most lineups. In DFS formats he’ll continue to be a better option in cash games than tournaments. He’s the 10^th-highest priced RB on DraftKings this week.

 

RB Antonio Gibson, WAS (Wk. 6: @NYG): Gibson runs into a bit of the same problem that James Robinson does – although he’s shown himself to be a capable receiver, the team still has another receiving back that they like to use more when they play from behind, and they play from behind a lot. JD McKissic has played 12 more snaps this season than Gibson, but Gibson has scored nearly 30 more PPR points than McKissic on the season. This week projects to be a close game for Washington for once and the Giants allow the 13^th-most RB points per game. That should help Gibson see the field a bit more than usual this week, and the switch to Kyle Allen at QB appears that it will benefit the rookie as well. Allen targeted his running backs on 6 of his 14 pass attempts last Sunday. I view Gibson as a borderline option most weeks, but this week with a decent matchup and so many running backs out, you’re probably going to have a hard time finding a better option than Gibson in your flex spot.

 

WR Chase Claypool, PIT (Wk. 6: vs. Cle.): Starting Claypool this week will probably feel like point chasing after his breakout 4-TD game last Sunday, but on paper, it’s the right call. With Diontae Johnson knocked out of the game early, Claypool pretty much assumed his role against Philly. Johnson had a 31.5% target share in the first two weeks of the season before injuries popped up, and Claypool was targeted on 32.3% of Big Ben’s targets in week 5. The Browns have allowed the 3^rd-most WR points per game so far this year, and Johnson is going to be sidelined again Sunday. Claypool also has a bit of history on his side this week. In the last 25 years, there have been 10 instances of a player catching 4 TD passes in one game. 7 of those players reached double-digit PPR points the following week, 6 of them scored 15+, and 5 of them got in the end zone again. Claypool’s chances at another strong game are very good, and his DraftKings price of $5,200 hasn’t caught up to what he did a week ago. He’s a solid cash game option there as well.

 

WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Wk. 6: vs. Ari.): Dak Prescott going down for the year is a decidedly bad thing for the Cowboys’ passing attack, but it isn’t a death knell. During his best stretch in Cincy from 2013-2016, the Bengals offense carried 2 top-36 fantasy receivers each season, and this Dallas group of receivers probably has more talent than Dalton ever had in Cincy. The matchup in this game is a favorable one. The Cardinals rank 26^th in pass-defense DVOA, and Patrick Peterson is likely to be covering Amari Cooper for much of the game. That should open things up for Lamb and Michael Gallup. My biggest fear with this offense is that they go back to playing more of a ball-control game and try to slow things down with Dak out, but I don’t expect that to happen. Mike McCarthy prefers an up-tempo offense, and I think Dalton is a capable enough QB for them to continue to keep things moving. Lamb has seen at least 6 targets and scored double-digit PPR points in every single game this year. He’s a quality WR2/3 option this week.

 

WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (Wk. 6: vs. Atl.): Jefferson had a less than ideal fantasy performance in week 5 if you started him, but I’d expect him to bounce back in week 6. This game has real shootout potential with Julio Jones healthy. The Vikings rank 27^th in scoring defense and the Falcons rank 30^th, and this game has a 53-point over/under number. I wouldn’t expect Minnesota’s game plan to change much with Dalvin Cook out (Alexander Mattison isn’t much of a drop off behind him), but Atlanta has given up at least 299 passing yards each and every week and ranks 30^th in pass defense DVOA. Jefferson is bound to see a healthy share of that receiving load. Something in the range of 5 for 75 with a possible score sounds about right for the rookie this week. Don’t let last week scare you away from firing him up in your lineups.

 

Borderline Rookies:

 

RB D’Andre Swift, DET (Wk. 6: @Jax.): The Lions backfield deployment has been the source of a lot of frustration for fantasy players this year. Each of Swift, Adrian Peterson, and Kerryon Johnson have had at least one-week ranking 1^st, 2^nd, and 3^rd in snap count out of that trio. There’s no clear-cut pecking order. It feels like the goal is to base the RB usage on the matchup, much like the Patriots did for years, and it’s going to continue to frustrate fantasy players all year. For what it’s worth, this feels like a Swift week. The Jaguars have allowed the 10^th-most RB catches per game despite not playing many true receiving backs. They managed to cough up 6 catches each to Jonathan Taylor and Joe Mixon. Swift has 13 catches on the year while Johnson and Peterson have combined for just 6. Swift is in play this week as a boom-or-bust RB3/flex option.

 

RB JK Dobbins, BAL (Wk. 6: @Phi.): Dobbins has had flashes of brilliance in the first five weeks of the season, but the Ravens have been committed to the committee approach. Dobbins has averaged just 5 touches per game but has turned those into 40 yards per game. Ultimately if you play Dobbins you’re hoping he gets in the end zone. I list him as a borderline option this week because of how messy the running back situation is around the league, but I would lean against starting him if you can avoid it. There are some reasons for optimism for Dobbins. He’s made several big plays, and Philly has given up their fair share of them. Only Washington has given up more 40+ yard runs than the Eagles, and only the Bengals & Texans have given up more 20+ yard runs than Philly.

 

WR Jerry Jeudy, DEN (Wk. 6: @NE): I wrote about Jeudy a week ago in this same matchup before the game ended up being pushed to week 6. The only real difference this week is that Denver gets back their starting QB Drew Lock. It would have been Brett Rypien under center had they played in week 5. The on-paper matchup for Jeudy isn’t great, but he should see enough volume to get him through to a productive day. The Broncos will be without Noah Fant, KJ Hamler, and Melvin Gordon. Josh Jackson is a tough matchup in the slot where Jeudy plays 70% of his snaps, but the Pats have given up lines of 7-67-1 to Tyler Lockett and 6-84-1 to Hunter Renfrow this season. Jeudy should make for a nice WR3 in a week where there should be plenty of targets for him. The Broncos are a 9.5-point underdog and should be throwing a lot.

 

WR Laviska Shenault, JAX (Wk. 6: vs. Det.): Shenault has been the most consistent part of the Jaguars’ receiving group this season, leading the team in both catches and yards through 5 games. He’s a reasonable flex option this week against a Detroit defense that has allowed the 9^th-most WR points per game, but there are some red flags to be aware of. The Jaguars have stopped short of giving him a full-time role, playing him fewer than 70% of the offensive snaps each week, and his two highest snap share weeks came in games where DJ Chark was injured. Chark is expected to play this week. Shenault also has an average target depth of just 7.9 yards for the season, doing a lot of his damage after the catch, but the Lions have allowed the 4^th-fewest yards after catch per game. Viska has a reasonable shot at a top-30 performance this week, but expecting a breakout game is probably asking for too much unless Chark ends up being sidelined.

 

WR Tee Higgins, CIN (Wk. 6: @Ind.): Higgins doesn’t get a great matchup Sunday, but with a limited slate this week he’s been productive enough to warrant consideration for a flex spot. Higgins has seen at least 6 targets in 4 straight games and has led the Bengals in WR snaps in 2 of the last 3 weeks. Despite ranking 1^st in pass defense DVOA, the Colts have allowed 2 receivers in each of the last 2 weeks to reach 10 PPR points without including touchdowns. There is upside for a useful week from Higgins, and you could do worse than him this week if you’re searching for a flex option or WR3.

 

WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF (Wk. 6: vs. LAR): Keep a close eye on updates for this game. It’s still a little up in the air which 49er WR will be shadowed by Jalen Ramsey. It’s either going to be Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel, but it’s hard to say for sure which one it will be. For the year, Ramsey is allowing just 4.7 yards per target on balls thrown in his direction. The Rams have allowed the fewest WR points per game, but have given up lines of 4-81 to Gabriel Davis, 6-100 to Cole Beasley, and 6-64 to DeSean Jackson. If Aiyuk avoids Ramsey, he could produce a useful week, but if we don’t know who Ramsey will match up with, I’d probably steer clear.

 

Rookies to Sit:

 

QB Joe Burrow, CIN (Wk. 6: @Ind.): Burrow is coming off of his worst game of the season against a stingy Ravens defense, and this week he faces off with an Indianapolis defense that has allowed the fewest QB points per game so far. They’ve been especially tough over the past 4 weeks, giving up about 10.5 points per game to opposing signal callers. They’ve allowed an average of just 194 yards per game and logged 9 interceptions and coughed up just 4 touchdowns in that span. The Bengals are 7.5-point underdogs in this game, so volume shouldn’t be a problem for Burrow. It would be tough for Joe to put up fewer points than he did a week ago, but this is unlikely to be a ceiling week like we saw for him against the Browns and Eagles. With four teams off this week, you might not have better options in a 2-QB league, but I wouldn’t start Burrow in any 1-QB formats and would view him as outside of the top-20 QB options for the week.

 

RB Cam Akers, LAR (Wk. 6: @SF): Akers returned from his rib injury last week, but he’s clearly playing behind Darrell Henderson at this point. Cam did put up 61 yards on 9 carries last Sunday, but the Rams were ahead by at least 13 points for every one of those carries, and 46 of the yards came on one 4^th quarter carry when the game was already decided. The 49ers are a much tougher run defense than Washington, allowing the 2^nd-fewest RB points per game and ranking 6^th in run defense DVOA. The Rams are the kind of team that may change up their RB usage suddenly, but I’d steer clear of Akers this week unless you think the Rams will blow out the 49ers like the Dolphins did a week ago.

 

RB La’Mical Perine, NYJ (Wk. 6: @Mia.): The release of Le’Veon Bell should be good news for Perine, but while Bell was out with injury Perine was playing behind both Frank Gore and Kalen Ballage, both of whom Adam Gase seems to love. There has been some noise this week that Perine will get a chance to carve out a receiving role, but I’ll believe it when I see it. Perine has been targeted just twice so far this season. He may be worth a stash in really deep leagues and in dynasty formats, but there’s no way to justify playing him this week.

 

RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn, TB (Wk. 6: vs. GB): Vaughn looked to have a golden opportunity going into last week with LeSean McCoy out and Leonard Fournette only available in case of emergency, but he failed to take advantage. Vaughn left the game early with a chest injury, but not before losing a fumble. Ronald Jones played great in a workhorse role, and Fournette should be much more involved this week, so Vaughn goes back to being an afterthought for now. Keep him sidelined this week.

 

RB AJ Dillon, GB (Wk. 6: @TB): There is nothing to take away from the news that Tyler Ervin is out as far as Dillon is concerned. Ervin has been playing a healthy number of snaps each week (he’s been on the field for about a third of the Packers offensive plays), but he’s a shifty speed back who is used occasionally on sweeps and outside running plays. The bruising Dillon isn’t a natural fit to fill that role. There is a chance Dillon sees a bit more short-yardage work if Aaron Jones picks up some of Ervin’s role, but more than 5 touches for the rookie would be a surprise.

 

WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (Wk. 6: vs. KC): Davis has been impressive over the past few weeks, topping 50 yards or finding the end zone in each of the last 4 games. He even played 100% of the offensive snaps in week 5, but I’d expect him to go back to a secondary role this week. John Brown and Cole Beasley should both be good to go this week. In the 3 games where Brown has played more than 50% of the snaps, Davis has a total of 4 catches on 4 targets. He was just fortunate enough to score TDs on 2 of them. The Chiefs are one of the toughest matchups for opposing WRs, allowing the 6^th-fewest points per game to the position. Davis is at best a TD dart throw this week.

 

WR John Hightower, PHI (Wk. 6: vs Bal.): Hightower is fast becoming the Eagles’ 2020 version of JJ Arcega-Whiteside…a rookie receiver who plays a ton of snaps each week but does absolutely nothing with them. Hightower has led the Eagles in WR snaps for three consecutive weeks but has just 6 catches for 59 yards in those games to show for it. Travis Fulgham’s emergence and Greg Ward’s consistency in the slot have pretty much rendered Hightower a decoy most snaps. The Ravens rank 7^th in pass-defense DVOA and have allowed the 7^th-fewest WR points per game for the year. Hightower really isn’t a fantasy option at this point.

 

WR Antonio Gandy-Golden, WAS (Wk. 6: @NYG): Gandy-Golden has seen his playing time increase in recent weeks, playing a season-high 43% of the offensive snaps in week 5, but that hasn’t translated into targets. He’s totaled just 1 catch for 3 yards on 3 targets all season. There isn’t any reason to view his increase in snaps as a reason to stash him.

 

WR Tyler Johnson, TB (Wk. 6: vs. GB): Johnson came out of the gates fast in week 4 against the Bears, piling up 4 catches for 61 yards by early in the 2^nd quarter, but he didn’t record another catch the rest of the game. The Bucs should get Chris Godwin and Justin Watson back this week, and Johnson should return to the bench. He’s not worth considering this week.

 

Rookies on Byes: QB Justin Herbert, LAC, RB Josh Kelley, LAC, RB DeeJay Dallas, SEA, WR Henry Ruggs, LV, WR Bryan Edwards, LV, WR Freddie Swain, SEA

 

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

 

RB Zack Moss, BUF (Wk. 6: vs. KC): Moss is practicing in full this week and appears to be on track to play for the first time since week 2. I’d be hesitant to go right back to him in anything but the deepest season-long leagues, but he’s a sneaky cheap DFS option. Moss was dominating red zone snaps in this backfield before getting hurt. In his absence, Devin Singletary has found the end zone just once on the ground and was stuffed at the 1-yard line on back-to-back plays against the Rams. If Moss goes right back into that red zone role, he has a decent chance to find the end zone in a game where the Bills have an implied total of 26.5 points. The way to attack the Chiefs is on the ground. Kansas City ranks 28^th in run defense DVOA and 2^nd in pass defense DVOA. In their one loss to the Raiders, the Chiefs were dominated in the trenches. Buffalo should try to follow that blueprint. Moss could give you 50+ yards and a score for the minimum price in DraftKings.

 

WR Darnell Mooney, CHI (Wk. 6: @Car.): Mooney continues to operate as the Bears’ number 2 wide receiver. The switch to Nick Foles at QB hasn’t always been pretty, but it has still been an upgrade on Mitch Trubisky – especially for Allen Robinson, who has been targeted at least 10 times in each of the last 3 games. Robinson has a 28.8% target share from Foles. That hasn’t stopped Mooney from seeing 14 targets himself in Foles’ two starts. In the last two weeks, the Bears have faced the Colts and Bucs, who rank 1^st and 4^th in pass defense DVOA respectively. This week they face the Panthers who rank 14^th. I expect the Panthers to pay extra attention to A-Rob due to the heavy workload he’s been seeing, and that could open things up for Mooney. I like his chances at 60+ receiving yards in this one, and he costs the minimum on DraftKings.

 

WR Devin Duvernay, BAL (Wk. 6: @Phi.): Baltimore’s #2 receiver Miles Boykin popped up on the team’s injury report on Friday with a thigh injury. He’s listed as questionable for Sunday’s game with Philly. If he misses this game, it could mean more opportunities for Duvernay. The rookie has flashed his wheels two weeks in a row with a kick return touchdown against Kansas City and a 42-yard run on a reverse last week against the Bengals. Marquise Brown is likely to be lined up against Darius Slay for a lot of this game, which could result in more targets for Mark Andrews and the other receivers. If Boykin misses this game, Duvernay becomes an interesting cheap DFS play for a limited slate and has some extra appeal in leagues that give bonus points for return yards.

 

WR Denzel Mims, NYJ (Wk. 6: @Mia.): Mims was designated to return from injured reserve this week, and those of you in deeper leagues should look into beating the crowd to scoop him off the waiver wire. The Jets have been abysmal this year, but in 5 weeks they’ve gotten 6 top-30 WR performances this season – 3 from Jamison Crowder, 2 from Braxton Berrios, and one from Jeff Smith. Most of those have come from the slot, but Mims could provide a true outside threat to balance out that passing game. There isn’t much competition to climb ahead of on the depth chart.

 

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Make sure to check on gameday for any inactives to make sure they aren’t in your lineups. There are a number of game-time decisions this week to keep an eye on. If you want to yell at me about anything written above or have questions, feel free to hit me up on Twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

 

 

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

 

24.2 Points…From a Kicker

 

Brandon McManus was responsible for the entire scoring output of his team on Sunday, and it was enough to go into Foxboro and beat the Patriots. McManus was a perfect 6 for 6 on the day, converting 242 yards of field goals into 18 points on the board. His 24.2 fantasy points made him the 6^th highest scoring non-QB player of the week so far. Elsewhere, other kickers are continuing to kick butt. Younghoe Koo went 4/4 on field goals and 4/4 on extra points for a cool 20.1 points. Koo is the second-best kicker this year in terms of points per game and is very consistent. His lowest game is 8.5 points, which was his only game below 10 points all season. Then you have Justin Tucker, perhaps the most famous fantasy kicker in the game. He’s missed just one of his 34 total kicking attempts this season. His 17.7 points definitely were critical in leading at least one fantasy team (mine) to victory.

 

3 of the Top 10 Fantasy WRs

 

Three of the top 10 fantasy WRs by points in Week 6 are rookies. Leading the way is Justin Jefferson, who once again finds himself in the discussion for top WRs of the week. His 9 receptions for 166 yards and 2 TDs mark the third time this season he has broken the 100-yard mark. Jefferson is now the WR4 on the season, and he and Adam Thielen (WR2) are stepping up as the NFL's biggest power combo at WR. Last week’s WR leader, Chase Claypool, had a nice encore performance with 81 yards from scrimmage and another TD. Claypool is now leading his team in both receiving yards and receiving touchdowns. Finally, we have Tee Higgins rounding out the top 10 of the week. His 6 receptions for 125 yards are both career highs, through 6 games. Higgins has emerged as probably the best WR on the Bengals, who have shown signs of life just one season after finishing with the NFL’s worst record. Higgins has a nice rapport with Joe Burrow developing and has moved into the every week starter conversation.

 

601 Yards of Offense

 

After an odd and shortened week, the Tennessee Titans put up a franchise-record 601 yards of offense, led by the one and only, the unidread, Derrick Henry. Henry had nearly half of those yards himself, 264 yards from scrimmage, including a 94-yard touchdown run in the 4^th quarter to take the lead back from the Texans. Ryan Tannehill managed to outduel Deshaun Watson, putting up 364 passing yards and throwing 4 TDs, though really, it’s the skilled manner in which he hands the ball to Derrick Henry and then gets the heck out of the way that got him this victory. 9 different Titans had receptions in this game, led by, as expected, Anthony…Firkser? Firkser saw a larger role with Jonnu Smith sidelined by injury and had a whopping 8 receptions for 113 yards and found the end zone as well. Firkser now has a Michael Thomas-esque 78.1% catch rate on his career. He is owned in 3% of fantasy leagues and was the TE1 on the week, so place your bids now! A quick digression – not to call out our drinkfive.com fantasy league or anything, but only 4 of the top 20 TEs so far this week are even on rosters in this league!

 

39.4 Fantasy Points

 

Let’s take another look at Derrick Henry’s ridiculous fantasy performance on Sunday. 22 carries for 212 yards is a 9.64 yards per carry average, meaning that every time he carried the ball, he went 29 of the 30 feet traditionally required to make a first down. He added two receptions for 52 yards, 53 of them (what?) coming in overtime to flip the field and set up the Titans for his game-winning TD 4 plays later. This is his third consecutive season where he has a game of at least 200 rushing yards. Henry is the first NFL player to accomplish this feat. He has 9 TDs in those three games. He can add two playoff games last year where he broke 200 yards from scrimmage to that leader board as well. How dominant was Henry? Well, the second-best RB this week has only 65% of his fantasy points. He scored 3x the points that the RB10, Adrian Peterson, had this week.

 

3 Pick-Sixes

 

Aaron Rodgers threw his third-ever pick-six on Sunday in 179 regular-season games. By contrast, his opponent on Sunday has 16 on his career. How about showing that stat when you try inflating Brady’s ego, Fox? Anyways, I digress. It was one of the worst games of Rodgers’ career and the Packers even managed to lose their first-place status in the NFC North. Meanwhile, the Bucs move into sole possession of first place in the NFC South with their 4^th victory. Brady’s old team only has 2 victories…if anybody is counting. The Bucs are managing to win with defense and a solid run game, just what we expected out of the traditionally high-flying offense of Bruce Arians. Ronald Jones is the first player this season with 3 consecutive 100-yard rushing games. Even Rob Gronkowski is getting in on the action, scoring his first TD as a Buc and finishing with 16.3 points this week, his best game since Week 14 of the 2018 season.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! While I’m sure most of us are eager for the distraction from the marathon election week, football this week is feeling like a less fun escape than usual as injuries and Covid-19 ravage NFL rosters and fantasy rosters alike. Just among the rookies this week, AJ Dillon and Brandon Aiyuk missed Thursday night due to the coronavirus, and in all more than a third of the league has at least one player on the Reserve/COVID list. Week 8 was a rough one for the rookie class. The top-2 quarterbacks had good weeks, DeeJay Dallas, Zack Moss and JK Dobbins all posted breakout games, and Cam Akers finally got into the mix for the Rams with Darrell Henderson going down with injury, but there were few other bright spots. Brandon Aiyuk topped 90 yards, but top rookies Justin Jefferson, Jonathan Taylor, CEH, and D’Andre Swift all had decidedly disappointing weeks. Is week 9 going to be just as much of a minefield for the rookies? Let’s dive in and take a look at what to expect…

(Notes: All rookies under same header at same position are listed in the order I would play them this week. All fantasy points references are in half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted)

 

Rookies to Start:

 

QB Justin Herbert, LAC (Wk. 9: vs. LV): Herbert is quickly ascending to the point where he is an automatic start in 2-QB formats and a solid option in most 1-QB leagues each week as well. Herbert has thrown for over 260 yards and 3+ touchdowns in 4 straight games, and Vegas has struggled to contain QBs not named Baker Mayfield in the last month. In the 3 games prior to shutting down Mayfield a week ago, the Raiders had given up at least 288 passing yards and 3 total scores to each QB they faced (Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Tom Brady). Of course, the guys who burned them are very good fantasy quarterbacks, but from what we’ve seen, so is Herbert. The Raiders have also given up 20+ rushing yards to 4 different QBs they’ve faced, and Herbert is capable of hurting them with his legs as well. Vegas ranks 27^th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA stat. Put all of this together and Herbert is easily a top-10 QB this week, and maybe top-5.

 

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC (Wk. 9: vs. Car.): Edwards-Helaire has seen a drastic drop in his viability as a fantasy starter in recent weeks, but this is a week where he should be fired up with confidence. CEH has played nearly twice as many snaps as Le’Veon Bell in each of the 2 games since the veteran was added. In both games, the duo gave way to a 3^rd-stringer in the 4^th quarter of a blowout. Kansas City remains a heavy favorite this week, so there is a chance that happens again, but Carolina has just one loss by multiple scores on the season. They’ve also ranked 26^th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 4^th-most RB points per game. Carolina has also allowed 12 rushing scores in 8 games and a league-worst 7.3 receptions per game to opposing backs. Everything stacks up to CEH doing enough damage against this defense before it gets out of hand that he should return an easy RB2 performance even if it does turn into another rout.

 

RB James Robinson, JAX (Wk. 9: vs. Hou.): Robinson has been a fantasy gem for teams who managed to get him on the wire at the start of the season, and the absence of Gardner Minshew this week may prove to be a positive thing for Robinson. The Jaguars should lean a bit heavier on the run game early on in this one against a team that ranks 27^th in run defense DVOA. The Texans have allowed the 3^rd-most running back points per game on the season, and while Robinson didn’t have a great performance against them the first time around (70 scrimmage yards, 5 catches, and a fumble lost), I like his chances to be better this time. Houston gives up a league-high 151 rushing yards per game to RBs, and Robinson is usually a lock for 4+ targets as well. That shouldn’t change with Luton under center. Luton had a reputation in college for checking down if his initial read wasn’t open rather than going through his progression. That should benefit Robinson in PPR leagues. He should be a safe RB2 this week.

 

RB Antonio Gibson, WAS (Wk. 9: vs. NYG): Like James Robinson, Gibson gets to face off with a team he’s already played and not produced against this weekend, and like Robinson I expect better results this time around for Gibson. The Giants have been respectable against opposing backs, ranking 9^th in run defense DVOA and allowing the 15^th-most RB points per game. Zeke Elliott is the only back to top 60 rushing yards against them in the last 6 weeks, but Gibson has posted at least 4 catches or 100 rushing yards in each of his last 4 games. His receiving usage has spiked since the QB change from Dwayne Haskins, and that should give him enough floor that any improvement to his rushing effort from the last meeting likely results in an RB2 week. This contest is in Washington, and 3 of the 4 highest rushing yardage totals the Giants have allowed came on the road. I think Gibson finishes with 70+ scrimmage yards, a handful of catches, and a possible score.

 

WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (Wk. 9: vs. Det.): I was set to list Jefferson as a borderline option this week, but the news that Matt Stafford has been activated from the Covid-19 list changed that. With David Blough or Chase Daniel at QB, this looked like a game where the Vikings would let Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison run roughshod over the Lions in an easy win. It should be much more competitive with Stafford under center. The Lions have allowed the 13^th-most WR points per game, and Jefferson has shown a ceiling that you can’t leave on the bench unless you have a really good reason to do so. Last week was a letdown game for him, but it’s hard to blame the Vikings for leaning on Dalvin Cook with the success he was having. I expect a much better performance from Jefferson this week.

 

Borderline Rookies:

 

RB JK Dobbins, BAL (Wk. 9: @Ind.): Dobbins was fantastic in week 8 as the absence of Mark Ingram allowed him to be fully unleashed for the first time this year. Dobbins played two-thirds of the offensive snaps and turned 15 carries into 113 yards against what has been one of the toughest run defenses in the league (Pittsburgh ranks 2^nd in run defense DVOA). He’ll have to duplicate the feat this week to put up another big game. Mark Ingram will be sidelined again, so the opportunity will be there, but the Colts rank 5^th in run defense DVOA and allow the 4^th-fewest RB points per game, so it’s another tough matchup. Dobbins doesn’t get consistent passing game usage, so he’ll have to get his numbers on the ground, and the high-water mark the Colts have allowed for rushing yards was 72 to Kareem Hunt, and he took 20 carries to get there. Dobbins likely sees enough work to not kill you as a flex option just on the merits of his yards, but he has the chance at a very strong week if he manages to get into the end zone. The Colts have only allowed 3 RB rushing scores in their first 7 games though.

 

RB D’Andre Swift, DET (Wk. 9: @Min.): Swift played his highest snap share of the season in week 8 (62%), but had one of his worst games of the season with just 1 rushing yard and 22 receiving yards on 3 catches. His playing time was likely a result of the Lions playing from a deep hole and the fact that Swift is the only real pass-catching back on the roster. I’d expect him back under 50% this week, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. The matchup is much better this week. Minnesota ranks 19^th in run defense DVOA and allows nearly 6 receptions per game to opposing backs. I’d expect Swift to have a bit of a bounce-back game. He may even see a couple of extra targets with Kenny Golladay out of the lineup, but ultimately he’ll be a bit of a volatile RB3. As usual, he’ll be more helpful in PPR formats.

 

RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (Wk. 9: vs. Bal.): Taylor hasn’t quite lived up to the hype that he had coming into the season, but week 8 was a huge letdown from the rookie in a smash spot. The Colts won in a blowout and ran the ball 39 times, but Taylor carried just 11 times for 22 yards and spent much of the day on the sideline watching Jordan Wilkins and Nyheim Hines combine for 175 scrimmage yards and 3 TDs. He also got to see a 2-yard rushing score by tight end Trey Burton. News came out after the game that Taylor was limited due to an injury, and he is practicing in full late this week, but it’s still troubling to say the least. Taylor hasn’t been that effective as a runner in recent weeks, so it’s a real threat that Wilkins could steal a bigger share of the workload after impressing last Sunday. The matchup with the Ravens this week is not a good one, with Baltimore ranking 1^st in run defense DVOA and allowing the 2^nd-fewest fantasy points per game to backs. Taylor is still going to get some work, but starting him this week is a bet that his talent will overcome both a potentially reduced role and a brutal matchup. I wouldn’t go near him in DFS lineups, but there is enough here that you could consider him for a flex spot depending on what your roster looks like.

 

RB DeeJay Dallas, SEA (Wk. 9: @Buf.): Dallas had a breakthrough game last week finding the end zone twice against the 49ers as Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde missed the game with an injury and Travis Homer played a limited role due to an injury of his own. Carson and Hyde will be out again this week, but Homer should be healthier and the team has added Alex Collins from the practice squad. That muddies up the water a little bit this week for Dallas, but I expect him to still lead the committee after what he did a week ago. The Bills have a reputation as a tough defense but haven’t exactly lived up to it this year. They rank 24^th in run defense DVOA and Seattle has an implied total of 29 points. Dallas doesn’t have much of a track record, so there is a real risk that Homer and Collins take a sizable chunk out of his workload, but if his role is similar to last week he should be a decent RB3/flex play.

 

RB Zack Moss, BUF (Wk. 9: vs. Sea.): On the other side of the Bills-Seahawks game, Zack Moss appears to have pulled even with Devin Singletary in the Bills’ backfield depth chart. They’ve played about the same amount of snaps in each of the last two weeks, and Moss got into the end zone twice last Sunday. Both backs ran for over 80 yards in the game, but it was the first time in a few weeks that the Bills have played from ahead and been able to run the ball a lot. I don’t expect that to be the case in what could be a shootout with the Seahawks. Seattle leads the league in points scored per game, and the Bills will probably be throwing to keep pace. Moss will probably see 12 or fewer carries against a defense that ranks 6^th in run defense DVOA and gets back run-stuffing safety Jamal Adams this week. He’ll need to get in the end zone to be helpful. He’s at least worth consideration in deeper leagues, but I’d probably look for a higher-upside option.

 

RB Joshua Kelley, LAC (Wk. 9: vs. LV): It’s been a roller-coaster fantasy season for Kelley so far. He impressed in the first few weeks of the season as the 1-B running back to Austin Ekeler’s 1-A, but fumbles seemed to send him to the bench when Justin Jackson got healthy. Then Ekeler got hurt, and Kelley worked his way back into the rotation, but his inefficient play seemed to have him on the outs again last week. Troymaine Pope seemed to leapfrog Kelley on the depth chart in the second half last week…but now Pope is likely out this week with a concussion. That should give Kelley one more chance to state his case to keep getting touches. He gets that chance in a good matchup. The Raiders rank 31^st in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 5^th-most RB points per game. For Kelley, the big question is how evenly the workload will be split with Jackson. If you think it’s going to be close to 50/50, then Kelley is in play as a flex option in 12-team and deeper leagues. I think he’ll see a little less than that, so I would probably lean against playing him unless you’re desperate. Kelley has just one game in his last 5 with 10+ PPR points.

 

WR Jerry Jeudy, DEN (Wk. 9: @Atl.): Jeudy’s usage has been somewhat inconsistent in recent weeks, but his 10 targets last week were a season-high. The Broncos were playing from behind all day and Tim Patrick was sidelined with injury though. They could play from behind again this week, but Patrick is expected to return. I still think this could be a favorable week for Jeudy. In addition to allowing the 5^th-most WR points per game, the Falcons also have allowed more yards after catch than any team in the league, and Jeudy is the Denver WR in the best position to take advantage. He’s averaging nearly 5 yards after catch per reception. Tim Patrick and KJ Hamler each average fewer than 3. The Falcons have also struggled with slot receivers, giving up solid games to Tyler Lockett (8-92), CeeDee Lamb (6-106), Anthony Miller (2-41-1), Danny Amendola (3-62), and Curtis Samuel (4-31-1). If Jeudy sees more than 5 targets in this game, I like his chances of turning in 60+ yards and finishing as a WR3 or close to it.

 

WR Darnell Mooney, CHI (Wk. 9: @Ten.): Several weeks this season I’ve listed Mooney as a sleeper, and there have been a couple of weeks where he just missed having a solid game, but in week 8 he came through with his best game of the year. He posted 5-69-1 on 6 targets against the Saints, and this week gets a much more favorable matchup with the Titans. Tennessee has allowed the 3^rd-most WR points per game and has given up 50+ receiving yards to 10 different receivers in their last 4 games. Mooney has averaged 6.4 targets per game over the last 5 games, and I’d view 50 yards as his floor in this one if his targets are in that ballpark. I expect they will be. Mooney is in play as a WR3 option this week.

 

WR Chase Claypool, PIT (Wk. 9: @Dal.): The pattern has become pretty clear with the Steelers that if Diontae Johnson plays, the passing game runs through him, and when he doesn’t it runs through Claypool. Johnson has at least 10 targets in each of the last 3 games he’s played in full and averaged over 20 PPR points per game in those contests. In the last 3 that Diontae has missed or left with injury Claypool has averaged 8 targets and 27.3 PPR points per game. Yes, there was a 4 TD game in there, but Claypool found the end zone in all 3 games. It looks like Diontae is going to play this week, so Claypool returns to being a boom-or-bust WR4 type this week unless something happens to Johnson mid-game. Dallas is a burnable defense, allowing the 6^th-most WR points per game. Claypool has shown the ability to make splash plays, and Dallas has allowed 6 completions of 40+ yards on the year. He’s too expensive for DFS cash games given his volatility this week ($5,700 on DraftKings), but he’s a high-ceiling flex dart throw in deeper leagues.

 

WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Wk. 9: vs. Pit.): Lamb has played 3 games without Dak Prescott now, and in those games, he’s turned 21 targets into just 91 yards and is on track to have the 3^rd different starting QB he’s had in the last 3 weeks. The Steelers have been a stingy pass defense, ranking 6^th in pass defense DVOA, but they have allowed the 8^th-most WR points per game. They’ve had their issues with slot WRs, giving up 4-62 to Jerry Jeudy, 4-95-1 to Randall Cobb, 4-26-1 to Greg Ward, and 5-106 to Willie Snead, but you need to temper expectations here with Garrett Gilbert throwing him the ball. The area where the Steelers have been especially vulnerable has been on downfield throws, allowing 25 completions of 20+ yards on the season, but Michael Gallup is the best deep threat WR on the roster. Lamb is a risky WR4 or flex option this week.

 

Rookies to Sit:

 

QB Tua Tagovailoa, MIA (Wk. 9: @Ari.): Tua’s debut didn’t go as swimmingly as it could have from a fantasy standpoint, but the Dolphins rolled to victory against a decent Rams team. Tua benefitted from a defensive TD and a punt return TD, so he wasn’t asked to do much as a passer. He did make a few impressive throws, but the overall numbers weren’t great as he finished with 92 yards and a score on 22 attempts. This week he faces off with a Cardinals team that on paper is a little above average against QBs, allowing the 18th-most points per game to the position and ranking 11^th in pass defense DVOA. They have benefitted, however, from getting to face Andy Dalton, Joe Flacco, and Dwayne Haskins this year. They’ve given up at least 18 QB points in every game that they didn’t face one of that trio. The Dolphins expect to be without both Myles Gaskin and Matt Breida in this game, so moving the ball on the ground could be a struggle. Tua is likely to throw the ball more this week than last week, but given what we saw against the Rams I would take anything above 200 yards and a score as a bonus. I’d view him as a low-end QB2 this week, but there is some upside for more.

 

QB Jake Luton, JAX (Wk. 9: vs. Hou.): Luton will get the start in place of Gardner Minshew in this one, and although this is a favorable matchup it likely won’t be favorable to your fantasy lineup to have Luton in it. You’re probably unfamiliar with the Oregon State product. He’s got prototype NFL QB size at 6’7”, 230 lbs., but he doesn’t have a cannon arm and didn’t regularly show the ability to go through multiple reads in a play in college. The Texans allow the 8^th-most QB points per game and allowed the last two QBs they faced before the bye to each throw for 4 scores. They’ve had an extra week to get ready for Jacksonville, and I’d expect there to be some wrinkles added to the defensive scheme this week to keep the rookie uncomfortable. We really don’t know what to expect from Luton, but I would expect the Jaguars to lean on James Robinson whenever possible despite reports that they would ‘open up the offense’ with the rookie under center. Joe Flacco might be the only QB that I would start Luton over this week.

 

RB LaMical Perine, NYJ (Wk. 9: vs. NE): Perine is getting enough playing time that he should be a viable fantasy option, but that just hasn’t been the case. Over the last 3 games, Perine has averaged 15 more snaps per game than Gore, but Gore somehow has out-touched Perine 36-to-32. Perine averaged just over 40 scrimmage yards per game in those contests. Sam Darnold will be out this week, so the Jets will turn back to Joe Flacco. The Jets’ offense totaled 10 points in Flacco’s two starts this year. There is very little upside with this offense this week. New England isn’t a stout run defense, ranking 30^th in run defense DVOA, but with Perine splitting the backfield work in such an inept offense it’s hard to justify playing him in fantasy this week.

 

WR Laviska Shenault, JAX (Wk. 9: vs. Hou.): Shenault is a player that has been more exciting in theory than in practice in fantasy. He’s shown the ability to be dangerous with the ball in his hands, but the Jaguars haven’t been getting it into his hands often enough. He’s a lock for 3+ catches each week, but he’s reached 50 yards just twice this season and found the end zone just once. This appears to be a plus matchup on paper with the Texans allowing the 7^th-most WR points per game, but when you factor in the uncertainty that a Jake Luton start brings with it, I’d feel better rolling with someone other than Shenault this week.

 

WR Michael Pittman Jr., IND (Wk. 9: vs. Bal.): Pittman got back on the field last Sunday, but it’s pretty clear he’s got some work to do to get back into a useful role for fantasy. He did play a healthy 58% of the snaps in week 8, and TY Hilton may be out this week with a groin injury, but after seeing just 1 target last week it’ll be tough to trust the rookie. There were some signs for optimism when 7 Ravens’ defensive players were added to the Reserve/COVID list this week, but only Marlon Humphrey hasn’t been removed from the list ahead of the game. I would hesitate to trot Pittman out in anything but DFS lineups. If for some reason Marcus Johnson is out on Sunday (he was listed as ‘Did not practice’ by the team on Thursday but returned to practice Friday), I would move Pittman to the sleeper section.

 

WR Henry Ruggs, LV (Wk. 9: @LAC): Ruggs is capable of taking any catch to the house, but he needs to start seeing more catches before you can really rely on him to be useful in fantasy. He’s played in 5 games this season and is yet to top 5 targets in a game. Ruggs did have one breakout performance against the Chiefs where he had two long catches and a touchdown, but he’s averaged just 31 scrimmage yards in the other 4 games. The Chargers have allowed 6 catches of 40+ yards on the season, but Ruggs’ individual matchup with Casey Heyward isn’t a favorable one. I don’t like this as a week where he booms again. I would also avoid considering his rookie teammate Bryan Edwards in his first game back from a long layoff.

 

WR KJ Hamler, DEN (Wk. 9: @Atl.): Hamler may have a little bit of upside this week against a defense that allows the 5^th-most WR points per game, but this matchup favors Jerry Jeudy and the tight ends more than it favors Hamler. Hamler has seen just 6 targets and one rushing attempt in the last 2 weeks in games that the Broncos played mostly from behind. That doesn’t bode well for his chances this week. Everyone in the Denver offense has a little added upside in this matchup, but I wouldn’t bet on Hamler being the guy who capitalizes.

 

WR Marquez Callaway, NO (Wk. 9: @TB): Callaway should return to the field this week, but so should Emmanuel Sanders and possibly Michael Thomas. The Bucs rank 1^st in the league in pass defense DVOA, and Callaway is going to have an uphill fight to a useful day even if Thomas sits again. If Thomas is out, Callaway could be considered as a bargain basement DFS option or in deep leagues, but if Thomas returns Callaway shouldn’t be under consideration.

 

WR Denzel Mims, NYJ (Wk. 9: vs. NE): For the 2^nd week in a row last Sunday, the Jets basically took the 2^nd half off. They’ve gained a TOTAL of 67 yards in the 2^nd halves of the last 2 games. If we just combine the first halves, Denzel Mims has totaled 6 catches for 84 yards on 10 targets. That would be a useful fantasy line if he had both of those halves in one game. Early in the week it looked like Mims could be the de-facto WR1 for the Jets in this game, but it looks like both Jamison Crowder and Breshad Perriman will be able to play. He’ll also have Joe Flacco at quarterback. It’ll be impossible to rely on a big game from the rookie this week.

 

WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (Wk. 9: vs. Sea.): Davis gets a great matchup this week against the Seahawks, who allow the most WR points per game, but he’s pretty unlikely to take advantage of it. In the last 3 Buffalo games, he’s played at least 60% of the offensive snaps each week but totaled just 2 catches for 18 yards on 6 targets. You’d have to be pretty desperate to consider him in any formats this week even with the great matchup.

 

WR Devin Duvernay, BAL (Wk. 9: @Ind.): Duvernay has been slowly getting more involved in the Baltimore offense, but it’s only translating into a few targets per week right now. He did haul in a 31-yard catch to give the Ravens life late in their game against Pittsburgh last week, but it was his only grab of the day. The Colts rank 4^th in pass-defense DVOA, and I would expect Marquise Brown to get the squeaky wheel treatment this week after complaining about his role in the offense during the week. Brown should see most of the high-value WR targets in this one. With Baltimore promoting Dez Bryant to the active roster this week, there is less chance that Duvernay is heavily involved.

 

WR Tyler Johnson, TB (Wk. 9: vs. NO): With Antonio Brown being activated this week, Johnson should fade into fantasy irrelevance for now. He was already 4^th among the team’s WRs last week in snap share, playing behind Mike Evans, Scotty Miller, and Jaydon Mickens. Brown will push him down even further. Keep him sidelined.

 

TE Cole Kmet, CHI (Wk. 9: @Ten.): Kmet played his highest snap share of the season in week 8 but managed to turn 1 target into 2 yards and avoided losing a fumble due to a fortunate ruling by a referee that his forward progress was stopped. The Titans are a middling defense against TEs, allowing the 16^th-most TE points per game. There are higher upside dart throws this week at the position. Kmet may not even play (he didn’t practice on Thursday).

 

Rookies on Byes: QB Joe Burrow, CIN, RB Cam Akers, LAR, WR Tee Higgins, CIN, WR Jalen Reagor, PHI, WR John Hightower, PHI, WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, CLE, WR Van Jefferson, LAR, TE Harrison Bryant, CLE

 

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

 

WR Quintez Cephus, DET (Wk. 9: @Min.): Cephus’s outlook got a big boost Saturday when it was announced that Matt Stafford had been activated from the Lions’ Covid-19 list. The Lions will be without Kenny Golladay on Sunday, and when Golladay missed the first two games of the year Cephus played 76% and 66% of the offensive snaps in those games and saw 13 targets come his way. In recent weeks, Marvin Hall has emerged as the WR4 on game days while Cephus has been a healthy scratch, but I would expect Cephus to play a significant role this week. He and Hall will likely split Golladay’s role this week. Hall has the higher ceiling due to his big play ability (He has 6 catches of 40+ yards and 13 catches of 20+ out of 26 career receptions), but I would expect Cephus to have the higher target total and be more of a threat in the red zone. Minnesota has allowed the 2^nd-most WR points per game, and Cephus costs the minimum on DraftKings this week. There is a solid opportunity for a nice day from Quintez.

 

TE Albert Okwuegbunam, DEN (Wk. 9: @Atl.): Okwuegbunam saw his snap share and target share drop a bit last week with Noah Fant another week healthier, but he still managed to find the end zone. Denver spent much of the game well behind on the scoreboard before rallying to win, and as a result, spent more time with 3+ WRs on the field than they do on average. The Falcons allow the most TE points per game and have coughed up 8 TDs to the position in 8 games. We’ve already seen that Lock likes to look in Albert O’s direction when he’s on the field, and against this defense, he’ll have opportunities to do so. If you’re desperate at TE in deeper leagues or want a cheap DFS play at the position ($2,800 on DraftKings), Okwuegbunam is a worthwhile option with upside.

 

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Keep a close eye on the injury report this week and the Covid-19 updates. Things have been getting hairy there lately, so make sure you don’t start a sidelined player. If you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.