Welcome back to the Rookie Report! While I’m sure most of us are eager for the distraction from the marathon election week, football this week is feeling like a less fun escape than usual as injuries and Covid-19 ravage NFL rosters and fantasy rosters alike. Just among the rookies this week, AJ Dillon and Brandon Aiyuk missed Thursday night due to the coronavirus, and in all more than a third of the league has at least one player on the Reserve/COVID list. Week 8 was a rough one for the rookie class. The top-2 quarterbacks had good weeks, DeeJay Dallas, Zack Moss and JK Dobbins all posted breakout games, and Cam Akers finally got into the mix for the Rams with Darrell Henderson going down with injury, but there were few other bright spots. Brandon Aiyuk topped 90 yards, but top rookies Justin Jefferson, Jonathan Taylor, CEH, and D’Andre Swift all had decidedly disappointing weeks. Is week 9 going to be just as much of a minefield for the rookies? Let’s dive in and take a look at what to expect…
(Notes: All rookies under same header at same position are listed in the order I would play them this week. All fantasy points references are in half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted)
Rookies to Start:
QB Justin Herbert, LAC (Wk. 9: vs. LV): Herbert is quickly ascending to the point where he is an automatic start in 2-QB formats and a solid option in most 1-QB leagues each week as well. Herbert has thrown for over 260 yards and 3+ touchdowns in 4 straight games, and Vegas has struggled to contain QBs not named Baker Mayfield in the last month. In the 3 games prior to shutting down Mayfield a week ago, the Raiders had given up at least 288 passing yards and 3 total scores to each QB they faced (Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Tom Brady). Of course, the guys who burned them are very good fantasy quarterbacks, but from what we’ve seen, so is Herbert. The Raiders have also given up 20+ rushing yards to 4 different QBs they’ve faced, and Herbert is capable of hurting them with his legs as well. Vegas ranks 27th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA stat. Put all of this together and Herbert is easily a top-10 QB this week, and maybe top-5.
RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC (Wk. 9: vs. Car.): Edwards-Helaire has seen a drastic drop in his viability as a fantasy starter in recent weeks, but this is a week where he should be fired up with confidence. CEH has played nearly twice as many snaps as Le’Veon Bell in each of the 2 games since the veteran was added. In both games, the duo gave way to a 3rd-stringer in the 4th quarter of a blowout. Kansas City remains a heavy favorite this week, so there is a chance that happens again, but Carolina has just one loss by multiple scores on the season. They’ve also ranked 26th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 4th-most RB points per game. Carolina has also allowed 12 rushing scores in 8 games and a league-worst 7.3 receptions per game to opposing backs. Everything stacks up to CEH doing enough damage against this defense before it gets out of hand that he should return an easy RB2 performance even if it does turn into another rout.
RB James Robinson, JAX (Wk. 9: vs. Hou.): Robinson has been a fantasy gem for teams who managed to get him on the wire at the start of the season, and the absence of Gardner Minshew this week may prove to be a positive thing for Robinson. The Jaguars should lean a bit heavier on the run game early on in this one against a team that ranks 27th in run defense DVOA. The Texans have allowed the 3rd-most running back points per game on the season, and while Robinson didn’t have a great performance against them the first time around (70 scrimmage yards, 5 catches, and a fumble lost), I like his chances to be better this time. Houston gives up a league-high 151 rushing yards per game to RBs, and Robinson is usually a lock for 4+ targets as well. That shouldn’t change with Luton under center. Luton had a reputation in college for checking down if his initial read wasn’t open rather than going through his progression. That should benefit Robinson in PPR leagues. He should be a safe RB2 this week.
RB Antonio Gibson, WAS (Wk. 9: vs. NYG): Like James Robinson, Gibson gets to face off with a team he’s already played and not produced against this weekend, and like Robinson I expect better results this time around for Gibson. The Giants have been respectable against opposing backs, ranking 9th in run defense DVOA and allowing the 15th-most RB points per game. Zeke Elliott is the only back to top 60 rushing yards against them in the last 6 weeks, but Gibson has posted at least 4 catches or 100 rushing yards in each of his last 4 games. His receiving usage has spiked since the QB change from Dwayne Haskins, and that should give him enough floor that any improvement to his rushing effort from the last meeting likely results in an RB2 week. This contest is in Washington, and 3 of the 4 highest rushing yardage totals the Giants have allowed came on the road. I think Gibson finishes with 70+ scrimmage yards, a handful of catches, and a possible score.
WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (Wk. 9: vs. Det.): I was set to list Jefferson as a borderline option this week, but the news that Matt Stafford has been activated from the Covid-19 list changed that. With David Blough or Chase Daniel at QB, this looked like a game where the Vikings would let Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison run roughshod over the Lions in an easy win. It should be much more competitive with Stafford under center. The Lions have allowed the 13th-most WR points per game, and Jefferson has shown a ceiling that you can’t leave on the bench unless you have a really good reason to do so. Last week was a letdown game for him, but it’s hard to blame the Vikings for leaning on Dalvin Cook with the success he was having. I expect a much better performance from Jefferson this week.
Borderline Rookies:
RB JK Dobbins, BAL (Wk. 9: @Ind.): Dobbins was fantastic in week 8 as the absence of Mark Ingram allowed him to be fully unleashed for the first time this year. Dobbins played two-thirds of the offensive snaps and turned 15 carries into 113 yards against what has been one of the toughest run defenses in the league (Pittsburgh ranks 2nd in run defense DVOA). He’ll have to duplicate the feat this week to put up another big game. Mark Ingram will be sidelined again, so the opportunity will be there, but the Colts rank 5th in run defense DVOA and allow the 4th-fewest RB points per game, so it’s another tough matchup. Dobbins doesn’t get consistent passing game usage, so he’ll have to get his numbers on the ground, and the high-water mark the Colts have allowed for rushing yards was 72 to Kareem Hunt, and he took 20 carries to get there. Dobbins likely sees enough work to not kill you as a flex option just on the merits of his yards, but he has the chance at a very strong week if he manages to get into the end zone. The Colts have only allowed 3 RB rushing scores in their first 7 games though.
RB D’Andre Swift, DET (Wk. 9: @Min.): Swift played his highest snap share of the season in week 8 (62%), but had one of his worst games of the season with just 1 rushing yard and 22 receiving yards on 3 catches. His playing time was likely a result of the Lions playing from a deep hole and the fact that Swift is the only real pass-catching back on the roster. I’d expect him back under 50% this week, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. The matchup is much better this week. Minnesota ranks 19th in run defense DVOA and allows nearly 6 receptions per game to opposing backs. I’d expect Swift to have a bit of a bounce-back game. He may even see a couple of extra targets with Kenny Golladay out of the lineup, but ultimately he’ll be a bit of a volatile RB3. As usual, he’ll be more helpful in PPR formats.
RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (Wk. 9: vs. Bal.): Taylor hasn’t quite lived up to the hype that he had coming into the season, but week 8 was a huge letdown from the rookie in a smash spot. The Colts won in a blowout and ran the ball 39 times, but Taylor carried just 11 times for 22 yards and spent much of the day on the sideline watching Jordan Wilkins and Nyheim Hines combine for 175 scrimmage yards and 3 TDs. He also got to see a 2-yard rushing score by tight end Trey Burton. News came out after the game that Taylor was limited due to an injury, and he is practicing in full late this week, but it’s still troubling to say the least. Taylor hasn’t been that effective as a runner in recent weeks, so it’s a real threat that Wilkins could steal a bigger share of the workload after impressing last Sunday. The matchup with the Ravens this week is not a good one, with Baltimore ranking 1st in run defense DVOA and allowing the 2nd-fewest fantasy points per game to backs. Taylor is still going to get some work, but starting him this week is a bet that his talent will overcome both a potentially reduced role and a brutal matchup. I wouldn’t go near him in DFS lineups, but there is enough here that you could consider him for a flex spot depending on what your roster looks like.
RB DeeJay Dallas, SEA (Wk. 9: @Buf.): Dallas had a breakthrough game last week finding the end zone twice against the 49ers as Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde missed the game with an injury and Travis Homer played a limited role due to an injury of his own. Carson and Hyde will be out again this week, but Homer should be healthier and the team has added Alex Collins from the practice squad. That muddies up the water a little bit this week for Dallas, but I expect him to still lead the committee after what he did a week ago. The Bills have a reputation as a tough defense but haven’t exactly lived up to it this year. They rank 24th in run defense DVOA and Seattle has an implied total of 29 points. Dallas doesn’t have much of a track record, so there is a real risk that Homer and Collins take a sizable chunk out of his workload, but if his role is similar to last week he should be a decent RB3/flex play.
RB Zack Moss, BUF (Wk. 9: vs. Sea.): On the other side of the Bills-Seahawks game, Zack Moss appears to have pulled even with Devin Singletary in the Bills’ backfield depth chart. They’ve played about the same amount of snaps in each of the last two weeks, and Moss got into the end zone twice last Sunday. Both backs ran for over 80 yards in the game, but it was the first time in a few weeks that the Bills have played from ahead and been able to run the ball a lot. I don’t expect that to be the case in what could be a shootout with the Seahawks. Seattle leads the league in points scored per game, and the Bills will probably be throwing to keep pace. Moss will probably see 12 or fewer carries against a defense that ranks 6th in run defense DVOA and gets back run-stuffing safety Jamal Adams this week. He’ll need to get in the end zone to be helpful. He’s at least worth consideration in deeper leagues, but I’d probably look for a higher-upside option.
RB Joshua Kelley, LAC (Wk. 9: vs. LV): It’s been a roller-coaster fantasy season for Kelley so far. He impressed in the first few weeks of the season as the 1-B running back to Austin Ekeler’s 1-A, but fumbles seemed to send him to the bench when Justin Jackson got healthy. Then Ekeler got hurt, and Kelley worked his way back into the rotation, but his inefficient play seemed to have him on the outs again last week. Troymaine Pope seemed to leapfrog Kelley on the depth chart in the second half last week…but now Pope is likely out this week with a concussion. That should give Kelley one more chance to state his case to keep getting touches. He gets that chance in a good matchup. The Raiders rank 31st in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 5th-most RB points per game. For Kelley, the big question is how evenly the workload will be split with Jackson. If you think it’s going to be close to 50/50, then Kelley is in play as a flex option in 12-team and deeper leagues. I think he’ll see a little less than that, so I would probably lean against playing him unless you’re desperate. Kelley has just one game in his last 5 with 10+ PPR points.
WR Jerry Jeudy, DEN (Wk. 9: @Atl.): Jeudy’s usage has been somewhat inconsistent in recent weeks, but his 10 targets last week were a season-high. The Broncos were playing from behind all day and Tim Patrick was sidelined with injury though. They could play from behind again this week, but Patrick is expected to return. I still think this could be a favorable week for Jeudy. In addition to allowing the 5th-most WR points per game, the Falcons also have allowed more yards after catch than any team in the league, and Jeudy is the Denver WR in the best position to take advantage. He’s averaging nearly 5 yards after catch per reception. Tim Patrick and KJ Hamler each average fewer than 3. The Falcons have also struggled with slot receivers, giving up solid games to Tyler Lockett (8-92), CeeDee Lamb (6-106), Anthony Miller (2-41-1), Danny Amendola (3-62), and Curtis Samuel (4-31-1). If Jeudy sees more than 5 targets in this game, I like his chances of turning in 60+ yards and finishing as a WR3 or close to it.
WR Darnell Mooney, CHI (Wk. 9: @Ten.): Several weeks this season I’ve listed Mooney as a sleeper, and there have been a couple of weeks where he just missed having a solid game, but in week 8 he came through with his best game of the year. He posted 5-69-1 on 6 targets against the Saints, and this week gets a much more favorable matchup with the Titans. Tennessee has allowed the 3rd-most WR points per game and has given up 50+ receiving yards to 10 different receivers in their last 4 games. Mooney has averaged 6.4 targets per game over the last 5 games, and I’d view 50 yards as his floor in this one if his targets are in that ballpark. I expect they will be. Mooney is in play as a WR3 option this week.
WR Chase Claypool, PIT (Wk. 9: @Dal.): The pattern has become pretty clear with the Steelers that if Diontae Johnson plays, the passing game runs through him, and when he doesn’t it runs through Claypool. Johnson has at least 10 targets in each of the last 3 games he’s played in full and averaged over 20 PPR points per game in those contests. In the last 3 that Diontae has missed or left with injury Claypool has averaged 8 targets and 27.3 PPR points per game. Yes, there was a 4 TD game in there, but Claypool found the end zone in all 3 games. It looks like Diontae is going to play this week, so Claypool returns to being a boom-or-bust WR4 type this week unless something happens to Johnson mid-game. Dallas is a burnable defense, allowing the 6th-most WR points per game. Claypool has shown the ability to make splash plays, and Dallas has allowed 6 completions of 40+ yards on the year. He’s too expensive for DFS cash games given his volatility this week ($5,700 on DraftKings), but he’s a high-ceiling flex dart throw in deeper leagues.
WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Wk. 9: vs. Pit.): Lamb has played 3 games without Dak Prescott now, and in those games, he’s turned 21 targets into just 91 yards and is on track to have the 3rd different starting QB he’s had in the last 3 weeks. The Steelers have been a stingy pass defense, ranking 6th in pass defense DVOA, but they have allowed the 8th-most WR points per game. They’ve had their issues with slot WRs, giving up 4-62 to Jerry Jeudy, 4-95-1 to Randall Cobb, 4-26-1 to Greg Ward, and 5-106 to Willie Snead, but you need to temper expectations here with Garrett Gilbert throwing him the ball. The area where the Steelers have been especially vulnerable has been on downfield throws, allowing 25 completions of 20+ yards on the season, but Michael Gallup is the best deep threat WR on the roster. Lamb is a risky WR4 or flex option this week.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Tua Tagovailoa, MIA (Wk. 9: @Ari.): Tua’s debut didn’t go as swimmingly as it could have from a fantasy standpoint, but the Dolphins rolled to victory against a decent Rams team. Tua benefitted from a defensive TD and a punt return TD, so he wasn’t asked to do much as a passer. He did make a few impressive throws, but the overall numbers weren’t great as he finished with 92 yards and a score on 22 attempts. This week he faces off with a Cardinals team that on paper is a little above average against QBs, allowing the 18th-most points per game to the position and ranking 11th in pass defense DVOA. They have benefitted, however, from getting to face Andy Dalton, Joe Flacco, and Dwayne Haskins this year. They’ve given up at least 18 QB points in every game that they didn’t face one of that trio. The Dolphins expect to be without both Myles Gaskin and Matt Breida in this game, so moving the ball on the ground could be a struggle. Tua is likely to throw the ball more this week than last week, but given what we saw against the Rams I would take anything above 200 yards and a score as a bonus. I’d view him as a low-end QB2 this week, but there is some upside for more.
QB Jake Luton, JAX (Wk. 9: vs. Hou.): Luton will get the start in place of Gardner Minshew in this one, and although this is a favorable matchup it likely won’t be favorable to your fantasy lineup to have Luton in it. You’re probably unfamiliar with the Oregon State product. He’s got prototype NFL QB size at 6’7”, 230 lbs., but he doesn’t have a cannon arm and didn’t regularly show the ability to go through multiple reads in a play in college. The Texans allow the 8th-most QB points per game and allowed the last two QBs they faced before the bye to each throw for 4 scores. They’ve had an extra week to get ready for Jacksonville, and I’d expect there to be some wrinkles added to the defensive scheme this week to keep the rookie uncomfortable. We really don’t know what to expect from Luton, but I would expect the Jaguars to lean on James Robinson whenever possible despite reports that they would ‘open up the offense’ with the rookie under center. Joe Flacco might be the only QB that I would start Luton over this week.
RB LaMical Perine, NYJ (Wk. 9: vs. NE): Perine is getting enough playing time that he should be a viable fantasy option, but that just hasn’t been the case. Over the last 3 games, Perine has averaged 15 more snaps per game than Gore, but Gore somehow has out-touched Perine 36-to-32. Perine averaged just over 40 scrimmage yards per game in those contests. Sam Darnold will be out this week, so the Jets will turn back to Joe Flacco. The Jets’ offense totaled 10 points in Flacco’s two starts this year. There is very little upside with this offense this week. New England isn’t a stout run defense, ranking 30th in run defense DVOA, but with Perine splitting the backfield work in such an inept offense it’s hard to justify playing him in fantasy this week.
WR Laviska Shenault, JAX (Wk. 9: vs. Hou.): Shenault is a player that has been more exciting in theory than in practice in fantasy. He’s shown the ability to be dangerous with the ball in his hands, but the Jaguars haven’t been getting it into his hands often enough. He’s a lock for 3+ catches each week, but he’s reached 50 yards just twice this season and found the end zone just once. This appears to be a plus matchup on paper with the Texans allowing the 7th-most WR points per game, but when you factor in the uncertainty that a Jake Luton start brings with it, I’d feel better rolling with someone other than Shenault this week.
WR Michael Pittman Jr., IND (Wk. 9: vs. Bal.): Pittman got back on the field last Sunday, but it’s pretty clear he’s got some work to do to get back into a useful role for fantasy. He did play a healthy 58% of the snaps in week 8, and TY Hilton may be out this week with a groin injury, but after seeing just 1 target last week it’ll be tough to trust the rookie. There were some signs for optimism when 7 Ravens’ defensive players were added to the Reserve/COVID list this week, but only Marlon Humphrey hasn’t been removed from the list ahead of the game. I would hesitate to trot Pittman out in anything but DFS lineups. If for some reason Marcus Johnson is out on Sunday (he was listed as ‘Did not practice’ by the team on Thursday but returned to practice Friday), I would move Pittman to the sleeper section.
WR Henry Ruggs, LV (Wk. 9: @LAC): Ruggs is capable of taking any catch to the house, but he needs to start seeing more catches before you can really rely on him to be useful in fantasy. He’s played in 5 games this season and is yet to top 5 targets in a game. Ruggs did have one breakout performance against the Chiefs where he had two long catches and a touchdown, but he’s averaged just 31 scrimmage yards in the other 4 games. The Chargers have allowed 6 catches of 40+ yards on the season, but Ruggs’ individual matchup with Casey Heyward isn’t a favorable one. I don’t like this as a week where he booms again. I would also avoid considering his rookie teammate Bryan Edwards in his first game back from a long layoff.
WR KJ Hamler, DEN (Wk. 9: @Atl.): Hamler may have a little bit of upside this week against a defense that allows the 5th-most WR points per game, but this matchup favors Jerry Jeudy and the tight ends more than it favors Hamler. Hamler has seen just 6 targets and one rushing attempt in the last 2 weeks in games that the Broncos played mostly from behind. That doesn’t bode well for his chances this week. Everyone in the Denver offense has a little added upside in this matchup, but I wouldn’t bet on Hamler being the guy who capitalizes.
WR Marquez Callaway, NO (Wk. 9: @TB): Callaway should return to the field this week, but so should Emmanuel Sanders and possibly Michael Thomas. The Bucs rank 1st in the league in pass defense DVOA, and Callaway is going to have an uphill fight to a useful day even if Thomas sits again. If Thomas is out, Callaway could be considered as a bargain basement DFS option or in deep leagues, but if Thomas returns Callaway shouldn’t be under consideration.
WR Denzel Mims, NYJ (Wk. 9: vs. NE): For the 2nd week in a row last Sunday, the Jets basically took the 2nd half off. They’ve gained a TOTAL of 67 yards in the 2nd halves of the last 2 games. If we just combine the first halves, Denzel Mims has totaled 6 catches for 84 yards on 10 targets. That would be a useful fantasy line if he had both of those halves in one game. Early in the week it looked like Mims could be the de-facto WR1 for the Jets in this game, but it looks like both Jamison Crowder and Breshad Perriman will be able to play. He’ll also have Joe Flacco at quarterback. It’ll be impossible to rely on a big game from the rookie this week.
WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (Wk. 9: vs. Sea.): Davis gets a great matchup this week against the Seahawks, who allow the most WR points per game, but he’s pretty unlikely to take advantage of it. In the last 3 Buffalo games, he’s played at least 60% of the offensive snaps each week but totaled just 2 catches for 18 yards on 6 targets. You’d have to be pretty desperate to consider him in any formats this week even with the great matchup.
WR Devin Duvernay, BAL (Wk. 9: @Ind.): Duvernay has been slowly getting more involved in the Baltimore offense, but it’s only translating into a few targets per week right now. He did haul in a 31-yard catch to give the Ravens life late in their game against Pittsburgh last week, but it was his only grab of the day. The Colts rank 4th in pass-defense DVOA, and I would expect Marquise Brown to get the squeaky wheel treatment this week after complaining about his role in the offense during the week. Brown should see most of the high-value WR targets in this one. With Baltimore promoting Dez Bryant to the active roster this week, there is less chance that Duvernay is heavily involved.
WR Tyler Johnson, TB (Wk. 9: vs. NO): With Antonio Brown being activated this week, Johnson should fade into fantasy irrelevance for now. He was already 4th among the team’s WRs last week in snap share, playing behind Mike Evans, Scotty Miller, and Jaydon Mickens. Brown will push him down even further. Keep him sidelined.
TE Cole Kmet, CHI (Wk. 9: @Ten.): Kmet played his highest snap share of the season in week 8 but managed to turn 1 target into 2 yards and avoided losing a fumble due to a fortunate ruling by a referee that his forward progress was stopped. The Titans are a middling defense against TEs, allowing the 16th-most TE points per game. There are higher upside dart throws this week at the position. Kmet may not even play (he didn’t practice on Thursday).
Rookies on Byes: QB Joe Burrow, CIN, RB Cam Akers, LAR, WR Tee Higgins, CIN, WR Jalen Reagor, PHI, WR John Hightower, PHI, WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, CLE, WR Van Jefferson, LAR, TE Harrison Bryant, CLE
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
WR Quintez Cephus, DET (Wk. 9: @Min.): Cephus’s outlook got a big boost Saturday when it was announced that Matt Stafford had been activated from the Lions’ Covid-19 list. The Lions will be without Kenny Golladay on Sunday, and when Golladay missed the first two games of the year Cephus played 76% and 66% of the offensive snaps in those games and saw 13 targets come his way. In recent weeks, Marvin Hall has emerged as the WR4 on game days while Cephus has been a healthy scratch, but I would expect Cephus to play a significant role this week. He and Hall will likely split Golladay’s role this week. Hall has the higher ceiling due to his big play ability (He has 6 catches of 40+ yards and 13 catches of 20+ out of 26 career receptions), but I would expect Cephus to have the higher target total and be more of a threat in the red zone. Minnesota has allowed the 2nd-most WR points per game, and Cephus costs the minimum on DraftKings this week. There is a solid opportunity for a nice day from Quintez.
TE Albert Okwuegbunam, DEN (Wk. 9: @Atl.): Okwuegbunam saw his snap share and target share drop a bit last week with Noah Fant another week healthier, but he still managed to find the end zone. Denver spent much of the game well behind on the scoreboard before rallying to win, and as a result, spent more time with 3+ WRs on the field than they do on average. The Falcons allow the most TE points per game and have coughed up 8 TDs to the position in 8 games. We’ve already seen that Lock likes to look in Albert O’s direction when he’s on the field, and against this defense, he’ll have opportunities to do so. If you’re desperate at TE in deeper leagues or want a cheap DFS play at the position ($2,800 on DraftKings), Okwuegbunam is a worthwhile option with upside.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Keep a close eye on the injury report this week and the Covid-19 updates. Things have been getting hairy there lately, so make sure you don’t start a sidelined player. If you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
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