Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Week 2 approaches, and with it a brand new set of rankings. Through waiver wires and injuries we'll march, setting the best possible lineups and picking up the players that could possibly turn out to be studs or difference makers in the weeks to come. This week, some players that we like more than the expert consensus are: David Montgomery, Raheem Mostert, Allen Robinson, Jamison Crowder, Courtland Sutton, and Austin Hooper. We also like the Los Angeles Chargers against the Lions. Best of luck, and tune in to the podcast on Wednesday at 9pm CT with any lineup questions!

Pay attention to these rankings throughout the week, as they will continue to evolve based on the latest injury updates, news, and player/matchup analysis. Good luck this season and remember, you can tweet us @drinkfive with any of your lineup questions!

So when the dust clears from Week 1 of the fantasy football season (Tuesday morning, bright & early), we're left to clear out the injured & usurped players and find some order in the chaos of early season decisions. Perhaps the most important thing to keep in mind here is that it will still take some time for offenses to gel this year and so player performances may be more variable than usual. You may want to wait a few weeks before dumping someone just because he had a disappointing amount of targets in the opener.

Guys that jump out to me this week to overperform expectations: Phillip Rivers, David Montgomery, Parris Campbell, Jimmy Graham, and Arizona Cardinals (DST). 

Pay attention to these rankings throughout the season, as they will continue to evolve based on the latest injury updates, news, and player analysis. Have any specific lineup questions? Feel free to tweet us @drinkfive with any of your questions or comments!

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! It’s been a long, arduous offseason, but we’re finally almost back to regular season football. Some of you may have already drafted your teams for 2019, but if you haven’t I’ve got some info that may help you decide which rookies to target. The rookies are always tricky to figure out. We’ve got no track record to go off of, and you wind up reading the tea leaves on coachspeak and preseason snaps to try and figure out what their roles will look like. I’m here to provide a little bit more detail on the relevant rookies for you.

These won’t be typical rookie rankings. Instead, I’m going to give you one interesting fact about each rookie and provide a little context to what it means for this season. Obviously stats can be misleading and some of these facts are going to help paint the picture I see for these guys. You should do some research of your own on them…I just want to provide some additional details you may not be considering.

I’ll separate the players by their expected roles for 2019. First we’ll look at guys who are slated to start right away, then guys who should be heavily involved rotational players or take a starting job early in the season, then guys who are a little deeper into the rotation or could win a job later in the year, and finally we’ll look at a couple of handcuffs/fliers that could move into a decent role if the starter gets hurt or falters badly. Let’s dive in…

Projected Starters:

QB Kyler Murray, ARI

Fact: In Kliff Kingsbury’s career as a college head coach and offensive coordinator, his teams finished with average ranks of 16^th in points per game, 9^th in offensive plays per game, and 7^th in pass attempts per game nationally.

Kyler has been one of the more polarizing players in the fantasy community this offseason. A lot of fantasy analysts have already anointed him a fantasy stud before he’s played his first regular season game. These rankings are a big part of why he’s getting that hype. Kliff’s offenses go at a fast tempo, they throw the ball a ton, and they score a lot of points. We’ve seen new innovative offenses that get borrowed from college have big success early – from the Wildcat to Chip Kelly and the Read-Option to the RPOs that have been all the rage recently. Is the Air Raid the next wave? If it is, we’re probably all too low on Murry as a fantasy QB, especially when you factor in his ability to run the ball. If you believe the Air Raid will work in the NFL, you should reach above ADP to snag Kyler in your drafts.

RB Josh Jacobs, OAK

Fact: As a head coach, Jon Gruden’s offenses have targeted the running back position an average of 147 times per season (126 in 2018).

Jacobs was an efficient receiver at Alabama when he got the chance, averaging nearly 12 yards per catch in his college career. He was drafted in the first round, which means the Raiders plan to use him a bunch this year. Jalen Richard was targeted 81 times last year. I’d expect Jacobs to take a big chunk of those targets from him. If the passing game work is there, Jacobs has a great chance to finish as an RB2 even if the Raiders struggle to run the ball efficiently.

RB David Montgomery, CHI

Fact: Since Pro Football Focus started tracking the stat in 2014, Montgomery has the two highest single-season totals of forced missed tackles (109 & 102).

Montgomery’s receiving ability is the biggest reason the Bears preferred him to Jordan Howard, but it’s his elusiveness that is going to keep him ahead of Mike Davis on the depth chart and in line to be the Bears’ lead back. Tarik Cohen will still have a prominent role in the offense, but Montgomery should be a borderline RB2 in what projects to be a dangerous offense.

RB Miles Sanders, PHI

Fact: In his 3 seasons as head coach, Doug Pederson’s leading rusher has averaged 11.7 targets in the passing game per year.

Pederson has seemingly preferred defined roles for his running backs. He’s had a different leading rusher each year in Philly – Ryan Mathews, LeGarrette Blount, and Josh Adams, and all 3 have been basically a zero in the passing game. Miles Sanders may be the guy that changes that, but Jordan Howard seems to be an ideal fit for the early down grinder role that Pederson has used. Sanders athleticism is off the charts, and he has a high ceiling for fantasy, but the risk of Jordan Howard having a bigger role than expected has me ranking Sanders behind Jacobs and Montgomery.

WR DK Metcalf, SEA

Fact: In 2018, Russell Wilson ranked 2^nd in the NFL in completion % on passes that traveled more than 20 yards in the air (46.7%) and ranked 4^th in attempts that traveled that far (4.7 per game).

Metcalf was a deep ball specialist at Ole Miss last season before getting hurt. He averaged 21.9 yards per catch, ranking 4^th in the NCAA. He has a size-speed combination that is reminiscent of Calvin Johnson and seems like a great fit in the Seattle offense. The lack of passing volume caps Metcalf’s upside, but he’s a great late flier in non-PPR formats and he’s a guy you should be targeting in best ball formats.

WR Miles Boykin, BAL

Fact: Former Ravens John Brown and Michael Crabtree combined for 54 targets in the 7 games that Lamar Jackson started (7.7 per game).

That 7.7 targets per game would be great if they were all going to go to Boykin, but the Ravens also drafted Marquise Brown as the first WR off the board. Boykin has been getting a lot of hype this preseason and has played his way into a starting role, but unless the offense sees a substantial increase in passing volume he won’t be much more than bye week filler in deeper leagues. I actually like Boykin to lead the Ravens in receiving yards this year, but that probably makes him a WR4 for your fantasy team.

TE TJ Hockenson, DET

Fact: In the last 23 years, only 8 rookie tight ends have scored 82 or more fantasy points (non-PPR). Evan Engram finished as the TE13 with 81 points last year.

It’s pretty much standard knowledge for fantasy players that you should fade rookie tight ends in redraft leagues in most cases. Hockenson isn’t an exception to this. The Lions want to be a run-first football team and drafted Hock as much for his blocking ability as for what he can do as a receiver. If you’re drafting him as a top-12 TE, you’re making a mistake.

Heavy Rotational Players:

QB Dwayne Haskins, WAS

Fact: 2018 was the first time that Washington ranked lower than 8^th in the NFL in completion % with Jay Gruden as head coach, and Haskins ranked 4^th in the NCAA with a 70% completion percentage in 2018.

The motley crew of Alex Smith, Colt McCoy, and Josh Johnson managed just a 61.1% completion percentage last year, easily the worst team mark under Gruden. Case Keenum has only had a higher completion % than that twice in his career. Haskins’ accuracy should have him surpassing Keenum for the starting job sooner rather than later. He’s not worth considering in a 1-QB league, but could be worth a late flier in superflex and 2-QB formats.

RB Justice Hill, BAL

Fact: After Lamar Jackson took over as the starting QB, Baltimore’s running back group averaged 5.4 yards per carry. For the full season, the Carolina Panthers had the best yards per carry average in the NFL at 5.1.

The Ravens went out and spent a pretty penny on Mark Ingram in free agency, but Hill has been impressive in preseason action. It seems that he’ll have no trouble beating out Gus Edwards and Kenneth Dixon for the #2 running back job. That’s a role that Dixon saw 9.4 carries per game in over the final 5 weeks of 2018. If Hill has a similar workload this year, he’ll be a viable flex option most weeks, and there’s a chance he steals even more work from Ingram as the season goes on.

RB Tony Pollard, DAL

Fact: Pollard had more catches in his college career at Memphis (104) than any other notable rookie running back in this class.

The Zeke holdout makes it very possible that Pollard opens the season as the starter in Dallas. He’s been working exclusively with the ones in camp. He’ll be a good starting option on your fantasy squad in Elliott’s holdout carries over into the regular season. If Zeke does return, there should still be a role for Pollard as a change of pace back and receiver out of the backfield. Zeke was targeted 95 times last year, but averaged just 7.4 yards per catch. The Cowboys may want to be more efficient with those passes. Pollard should be drafted in just about all fantasy leagues.

RB Devin Singletary, BUF

Fact: According to PlayerProfiler.com, Singletary’s speed score is in the 16^th percentile, his agility score is in the 18^th percentile, his bench press reps were in the 13^th percentile, and his SPARQ-x score was in the 13^th percentile.

Singletary put up big numbers at Florida Atlantic, but the athletes he’ll be facing off with in the NFL are on a different level than what he faced in Conference USA. The big question is can he continue to get by with such below average athleticism? The Bills should be run-heavy again as an offense, but I’m less than eager to buy the hype that Singletary is going to overtake LeSean McCoy for the starting job. If McCoy is a surprise camp cut, Singletary should be drafted as an RB3, but he’s not a guy I’d be excited to draft.

RB Darwin Thompson, KC

Fact: Kareem Hunt averaged 14.5 yards per reception before being released in 2018. Damien Williams averaged 7.0 yards per reception. Darwin Thompson averaged 15.3 yards per reception in 2018 at Utah State.

Damien Williams has been talked up as the clear lead back in Kansas City, and he certainly played at a high level down the stretch to earn that job, but it’s not far-fetched to believe Thompson can be a better receiver out of the backfield than Dame. Williams was never more than ‘just a guy’ before his stretch run last year, and Thompson has looked fantastic in the preseason. I expect Thompson to forge a role early in the season and should be a guy you target in drafts. There will be plenty of fantasy points to go around in Kansas City.

WR N’Keal Harry, NE

Fact: The New England Patriots had 164 passing targets in the 2018 season that went to players who are no longer on the team.

The return of Josh Gordon has put a bit of a damper on Harry’s outlook and is slowly dropping his ADP, but I wouldn’t write him off completely. The Patriots depth chart is largely unsettled after Edelman and Gordon, and Harry’s high draft capital should help give him a leg up on Phillip Dorsett and fellow newcomers Maurice Harris and Jakobi Meyers. There has been a lot written about Harry’s struggles to get separation, but it’s not for a lack of athleticism. His SPARQ-x score was in the 98^th percentile. You shouldn’t be drafting Harry as a starter, but he certainly has the upside to get there and should come at a steep discount. I know we’re all rooting for Josh Gordon, but he’s played in just 22 games in the past 5 years.

WR Marquise Brown, BAL

Fact: According to a 2016 study, the average recovery time from a Lisfranc surgery for an NFL player is 11 months. Marquise Brown had Lisfranc surgery in January.

The Ravens have said they expect him to be ready to play this year, but reports out of camp are that he has a ways to go to be ready for game action. I’ll believe he plays in week 1 when I see it. Brown is a player that wins with his speed, and the Lisfranc injury is one that is tough to come back from at full strength in year one. If his speed is affected at all, he’s likely to struggle to make a big impact this year, or at least in the early part of the year.

WR AJ Brown, TEN

Fact: The Titans ranked 25^th in the NFL in percentage of plays run from 11 personnel (3 WRs, 1 RB, 1 TE) in 2018 at 57.1%.

No one seems quite sure of what kind of scheme new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith will run in Tennessee, but most of the talk from the team has hyped Derrick Henry as the guy they want to build around. That makes me believe they aren’t going to be increasing this ranking much if at all. AJ Brown seems locked in as a starter in 3-WR sets. He came back from missing time with injury to immediately run with the 1’s in the Titans’ most recent preseason game. The question is if he is going to play ahead of Adam Humphries in 2-WR sets. If not, I’m not sure I see him being all that useful in fantasy as a rookie. The Titans offense just hasn’t been productive enough with Mariota to count on a guy playing less than 60% of the snaps to be a fantasy factor.

WR Parris Campbell, IND

Fact: In his 5 years as an offensive coordinator and head coach, Frank Reich’s primary slot receiver has averaged 6.11 targets per game.

Campbell is trying to work his way back from a training camp hamstring issue, but there is a chance for a big role right away in a potent offense – the Colts finished 5^th in scoring and 5^th in passing yards in 2018. 6.11 targets per game would work out to about 98 for the season. 38 wide receivers had 98 or more targets last season, and Campbell is currently being drafted as the WR60. I’m not saying you should move Campbell into your top 40 receivers, but it would be wise for you to be willing to reach a bit above WR60 for him, and then to also draft Andrew Luck name your fantasy team ‘An American Werewolf and Parris’.

WR Deebo Samuel, SF

Fact: Deebo averaged 9.5 yards after the catch per reception last year at South Carolina. The 49ers ranked 3^rd in the NFL in total yards after the catch in 2018.

A lot of teams have done a great job this draft season of identifying guys who are great fits in their offensive scheme, and Deebo is a prime example of that. Kyle Shanahan’s passing attack consistently gets receivers the ball with the opportunity for extra yardage after the catch, and Deebo thrived at South Carolina with the ball in his hands. He should have a role right away in San Francisco and it isn’t impossible that he winds up the eventual WR1 there rather than Dante Pettis.

WR Andy Isabella, ARI

Fact: In Kliff Kingsbury’s 9 years as a college head coach and offensive coordinator wide receivers under 6’ tall posted 8 seasons of 800+ yards, and 4 of them were over 1,000 yards.

Isabella stands just 5’9”, but that hasn’t typically been a problem for receivers playing for Kingsbury. 5’11” Keke Coutee posted 93-1,429-10 as a junior in 2017. 5’7” Jakeem Grant went 90-1,268-10 as a senior in 2015. Isabella played in a spread system at UMass and put those numbers to shame as a senior, tallying a 102-1,698-13 line in 2018. There is a ton of opportunity available in Arizona with Hakeem Butler likely to miss most or all of the season. Isabella should be on your radar as a late-round target.

WR KeeSean Johnson, ARI

Fact: Johnson ran a 4.6 second 40-yard dash at the NFL combine, and posted the worst vertical jump of any receiver there (30”).

Despite not being drafted until the 6^th round last spring, there has been a lot of noise about Johnson possibly starting in 3-WR sets to open the year in the desert. That noise will get even louder with Hakeem Butler going down. The combine numbers are the biggest reason for his draft slide. They’re also the reason I’m a bit dubious of the hype surrounding him in camp, but he was very productive last year (95-1,340-8) and the air raid scheme doesn’t typically win with jump ball contested catches, so the vertical jump might not be a big problem for him. I’d prefer Isabella to Johnson, but if Johnson earns a starting role there is value here.

TE Noah Fant, DEN

Fact: 21.1% of Joe Flacco’s career pass attempts have targeted a tight end.

As of today, the projected starting tight end for the Broncos is Jeff Heuerman, who set a career high with 48 targets in 2018. Jake Butt is recovering from a torn ACL, and Matt LaCosse is gone. It’s tough to be certain what kind of offense new OC Rich Scangarello will run in Denver, but he comes from the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree. Shanahan’s offenses have ranked in the top-10 in pass attempts in 7 of his 11 seasons. If the Broncos are just at league average in pass attempts (550 last year), that would mean 115 or so targets for tight ends. Fant seems a good bet for 50+ targets even if he doesn’t overtake Heuerman. He’s an intriguing dart throw as a TE2 in deeper leagues.

Deeper Rotational Players:

RB Darrell Henderson, LAR

Fact: Through 2 preseason games, Malcolm Brown has played exactly zero snaps as the Rams have sat their starters.

With the fantasy community now believing that Todd Gurley’s knee is basically held together by tape and rubber bands, Darrell Henderson has been one of the hottest names of the offseason. It would make logical sense for the Rams to employ Gurley and Henderson in tandem like the Saints did with Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara. Even today there are reports from a local beat writer that he expects Henderson to see 9-12 touches per game. No one seems to be talking about Malcolm Brown. The Rams matched a multi-year offer sheet that Brown signed with the Lions to keep him and have held him out of preseason games along with the rest of their starters. If he cuts into Henderson’s expected workload at all, it makes Henderson extremely overpriced at his current ADP. He’s one player I’m steering clear of this season.

RB Alexander Mattison, MIN

Fact: In games that Dalvin Cook played in 2018, Latavius Murray averaged 6.8 carries per game.

Mattison won’t be more than a change of pace back so long as Cook is healthy this year. There is some question about that as Dalvin has played just 15 of a possible 32 games in his career so far, and Mattison has RB2 upside if something happens to Cook, but he shouldn’t be counted on to produce with Dalvin healthy.

WR Mecole Hardman, KC

Fact: Eight of Hardman’s 40 touches on offense in 2018 resulted in gains of 30 or more yards. The Chiefs led the NFL in pass plays of 20+ yards and ranked 3^rd in pass plays of 40+ yards.

With the return of Tyreek Hill, the Chiefs probably have too many mouths to feed for Hardman to really break through in 2018, but he’s an explosive playmaker that lands in an offense that knows how to use them. Hardman will be a fantastic lottery ticket in best ball drafts, and a good late upside pick in deeper leagues. He also led the NCAA with 20.1 yards per punt return in 2018, so he will likely factor in the return game as well. Be aware of that if you are in a league that gives bonus points for return yards.

WR Terry McLaurin, WAS

Fact: With Kirk Cousins at QB in 2015-17, Washington ranked in the top 5 in the league each year in 20+ yard pass plays. Case Keenum ranked 11^th in the NFL in 20+ yard passes in 2018.

McLaurin was a downfield burner in college, averaging 20 yards per catch in 2018. Case Keenum might not be a great signal caller, but he is more willing to push the ball downfield than anyone Washington trotted out at QB last season, and if/when he loses the job to Dwayne Haskins, McLaurin gets to play with his college QB again. McLaurin’s most useful place in fantasy this year will be as a late round best ball target. I don’t think the Washington offense will be consistent enough to make him a weekly option.

WR Kelvin Harmon, WAS

Fact: The Redskins played in 11 personnel (3 WR, 1 RB, 1 TE) on 71.9% of their offensive snaps last season, 5^th-highest in the NFL. Trey Quinn, Paul Richardson, and Josh Doctson have combined to miss 54 games in their 8 professional seasons (Quinn 13 in 1 year, Richardson 26 in 5 years, Doctson 15 in 3 years).

Washington has already made it clear that Trey Quinn is locked in as the starting slot receiver this year, but Richardson and Doctson aren’t guaranteed anything, and no one in that trio has a great track record of staying on the field. McLaurin will probably get the first crack at breaking the WR rotation, but Harmon’s track record of production at NC State was impressive. He topped 1,000 yards in each of the last 2 seasons but plummeted in the draft due to poor testing at the combine. Harmon has already showcased sure hands and aggressive mentality when the ball is in the air this preseason. Those traits should serve him well at the NFL level, especially playing with a rookie QB. Harmon is a waiver wire option to keep an eye on in PPR leagues.

WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside, PHI

Fact: Alshon Jeffery has missed 14 games in the past 4 years, and in his 2 seasons in Philadelphia he’s been targeted in the red zone 28 times (15 of them inside the 10-yard line).

JJAW has been impressing in camp, and he’ll likely push for some playing time this year even if everyone is healthy, but there are so many weapons in Philly it’ll be tough for him to break through. His real value would come if anything happened to Alshon. Arcega-Whiteside is a big target who was a red zone maven at Stanford, scoring on more than 20% of his career catches in college. He’d be a popular target for Wentz in the red zone if Alshon were out, and he is likely to be Alshon’s eventual replacement. Jeffery is a free agent after the season.

WR Preston Williams, MIA

Fact: Devante Parker has never finished higher than the PPR WR51 in his 4 NFL seasons, and that finish occurred in 2016.

Kenny Stills is locked in as the team’s WR1, and it will likely be Jakeem Grant or Albert Wilson starting in the slot in Miami. That means Williams’ path to playing time goes through Devante Parker (barring injury). Parker has been hyped as a breakthrough candidate each and every offseason of his career, but his production has made him look more like a poor man’s Rueben Randle. Williams was a blue-chip recruit out of high school who got in trouble for a domestic incident while at Tennessee. He then transferred to Colorado State and posted 96-1,345-14 in his only season there. His checkered past is what caused him to go undrafted, but if he can stay out of trouble he’s got a bright future. If he’s still sitting there in the late rounds of your draft you should pick him up.

TE Irv Smith Jr., MIN

Fact: Smith’s 710 receiving yards were the highest single-season total by an Alabama tight end since Ozzie Newsome in 1977 (804 yards).

That’s right…Smith had a more productive season last year as a receiver than OJ Howard ever did at Bama. He’s not as freakish of an athlete as Howard, but the Vikings have already talked about using more 2-tight end sets this year to get him on the field with Kyle Rudolph. I don’t believe there will be a ton of fantasy value for Smith as a rookie, but this is a guy you should be trying to acquire in-season in dynasty leagues if his owner gets impatient with the lack of starter production this year. If he continues to impress, the Vikings will clear the way for him to start sooner than later despite the extension they handed out to Kyle Rudolph.

Handcuffs and Late Draft Fliers:

QB Daniel Jones, NYG

Fact: Ben McAdoo coached exactly zero games for the Giants after starting Geno Smith over Eli Manning in week 13, 2017.

It’ll be hard to keep Jones off the field all year if the Giants end up playing as poorly as most people expect them to, but it’s safe to assume Pat Shurmur won’t make the switch at QB without the blessing of owner John Mara. Mara was quoted earlier this preseason saying “Eli starting all 16 games would be ideal.” When Shurmur was asked about whether there is a QB competition, his reply was “Well, you heard it from the owner.” Jones has looked decent in the preseason, but it seems unlikely he’ll play any time soon.

RB Damien Harris, NE

Fact: Harris tallied 226 more carries in his Alabama career than teammate Josh Jacobs did, averaged a half yard more per carry than Jacobs (6.4-5.9) and was drafted 63 picks after Jacobs in the NFL draft.

That stat isn’t a knock on Jacobs, it’s praise for Harris. Damien is an impressive runner who will have a ton of value if anything happens to Sony Michel. Sony did miss 3 games as a rookie with knee issues, and I’d expect Harris to slot right into that role if those issues came back this year. Michel found the end zone 12 times in 16 games last year including the postseason.

TE Jace Sternberger, GB

Fact: Tight ends on the Packers not named Jimmy Graham totaled 35 targets in 2018.

There just isn’t going to be much value for the backup tight end in this offense. Sternberger would become an appealing waiver target if anything happened to Graham. He averaged better than 17 yards per catch last year at Texas A&M and could potentially make magic with Aaron Rodgers if he got moved into a starting role, but I’d be surprised if he reached 40 targets on the year so long as Graham is healthy.

That’s all I’ve got for now. Hopefully this info helps you fine tune your draft strategy when it comes to the rookie crop. Feel free to reach out on twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you want to yell at me about anything posted above or have any questions about rookies I didn’t include. I’ll be back in a couple weeks to give some insights into the week 1 rookie matchups, so be sure to come back and check it out. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Our long football-less national nightmare is finally over. Week one is upon us! By now you’ve hopefully you’ve made it through your draft and are relatively happy with the team you’ve put together, but now you get the fun of managing the lineup week-to-week. Week one is typically the epitome of the ‘start your studs’ mantra. We have limited information when it comes to schemes for new play callers, which teams have made defensive improvements, and who will get substantial playing time. The preseason can help us decipher some of these things, but teams do a pretty good job of playing coy in August and keeping things under wraps until the games start to count. Week one isn’t the time to get cute with your lineup decisions. With that in mind, there are only going to be a few rookies that I’d recommend playing in week one. Most of the rookies mentioned this week will be guys you should sit or are upside options in DFS lineups or guys you should be stashing on your bench.

In case you’re new here, each week I’ll break down the rookie crop’s matchups and place the relevant players into categories of ‘Rookies to Start’, ‘Borderline Rookies’, ‘Rookies to Sit’, and ‘Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options’. Make sure to read the details rather than just the headers though. Usually there is additional context that is important with understanding what to do with each player depending on your league’s format. Let’s dive into week 1…

Rookies to Start:

RB David Montgomery, CHI (Wk. 1: vs. GB): After trading away Jordan Howard in the offseason, the Bears traded up in the draft to take Montgomery in the 3^rd round with the hope that he would be their feature back. They signed Mike Davis as insurance, but all reports out of camp say Montgomery has been everything the Bears hoped he would be. Tarik Cohen will still factor in, but I expect Montgomery to be their starter out of the gate. The Packers revamped their defense a bit in the offseason, but losing Mike Daniels at DT is unlikely to be a positive change for a unit that ranked 23^rd in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA last year and dead last in pass defense DVOA on throws to running backs. Montgomery will be a bargain in DFS lineups in week 1 and should probably be in your starting lineup if you drafted him.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Kyler Murray, ARI (Wk. 1: @Det.): We’re only a few days away from finally seeing the Cardinals pull back the curtain on Kliff Kingsbury’s air raid offense. The Cardinals haven’t wowed anyone in the preseason, but they were intentionally vanilla in their play calling and didn’t want to tip their hand about the scheme. That’ll change Sunday and we’ll get to see if this is all hype or if the air raid will be the next evolution of NFL offenses. If things go well for the offense this week Murray has massive upside, but there is obvious risk as there is with any brand new offense. The matchup is a good one on paper. The Lions had one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL last year. They upgraded by bringing in Rashaan Melvin and Justin Coleman at corner, but they still lack quality coverage linebackers and should be vulnerable over the middle. One of the biggest aspects of Murray’s game, his rushing ability, might not be a huge factor in week 1. The Lions allowed the 2^nd-fewest rushing yards to opposing QBs last season, and 6 of their games were against QBs who finished in the top-9 in rushing yards at the position (Russ, Josh Allen, Dak, Cam Newton, and Trubisky x 2). While there are safer options out there, none of them will make you feel more alive than starting Murray. He could completely faceplant, or he could have a Cam Newton-esque debut. In his first NFL game, Newton posted 422 passing yards and 3 total TDs (2 passing, 1 rushing).

RB Josh Jacobs, OAK (Wk. 1: vs. Den.): The Broncos were a middling run defense a year ago (ranked 16^th in run defense DVOA) and didn’t do much from a personnel standpoint to address it, but new head coach Vic Fangio should get as much out of this unit as possible. Fangio’s defenses have ranked in the top-7 in rushing yards allowed in 5 of his last 8 seasons as a defensive coordinator, and in the top-10 in fewest rushing TDs allowed in 7 of 10 seasons. Jacobs will get a lot of volume, which puts him squarely in play as a RB2/flex option, but he isn’t an automatic start.

RB Miles Sanders, PHI (Wk. 1: vs. Was.): The Eagles enter week 1 as a 10-point favorite over Washington which should bode well for Sanders, but there are reasons for caution. For starters, Sanders is unlikely to open the season as the bellcow back. Head coach Doug Pederson talked openly this week about using a committee – “For us here, it’s worked. And we’ll continue to [use a committee].” Jordan Howard is going to get a share of the work and may get the goal line carries, and Darren Sproles will mix in as well. Washington is also a better run defense than the overall numbers from last year would suggest. Before Alex Smith’s injury torpedoed their season, they were on pace to finish 4^th in the league in points allowed and 5^th in rushing yards allowed. It can’t be completely ignored that they did fall apart after Smith went down, but they have the personnel to be a formidable unit once again. Sanders has the upside to be a great option this week, but the floor is a little lower than you like to see this week.

Rookies to Sit:

RB Darrell Henderson, LAR (Wk. 1: @Car.): We really have no idea how much Henderson is going to play this week and his DFS price tag is a bit too rich for my blood with that much uncertainty, especially against a tough defense. The Panthers allowed the 5^th-fewest RB points per game last year and the 2^nd-fewest RB receiving yards. Todd Gurley isn’t going to see the same workload he did last year with his knee issues, but the Rams really like Malcolm Brown as well. I’d give this backfield a week two to play out to get a better idea of what the workload split will look like before trusting anyone other than Gurley.

RB Devin Singletary, BUF (Wk. 1: @NYJ): Singletary has been a popular name in fantasy with LeSean McCoy being cut over the weekend, but don’t get carried away and plug him in right away. The Bills are going to ease Singletary into more of a featured role as the season goes on and he likely won’t be more than part of a timeshare early in the year. Frank Gore will probably lead the team in carries, and TJ Yeldon will have a role in the passing game as well. The matchup in week one isn’t a great one. The Jets allowed the 12^th-fewest RB points per game last year and added Quinnen Williams and CJ Mosley to the front seven in the offseason. They should be an improved unit. I’d steer clear of Singletary in week 1.

RB Darwin Thompson, KC (Wk. 1: @Jax.): On the other side of the LeSean McCoy news, Darwin Thompson’s outlook got markedly less sunny as the Chiefs signed Shady after Buffalo cut him. Both Thompson and projected starter Damien Williams will take a tumble in early season rankings as the workload split gets murkier. I’d keep Thompson benched until things get a little clearer, but I wouldn’t cut him outside of the shallowest leagues. This backfield reminds me a bit of the Saints in 2017 when they brought in Adrian Peterson and drafted Alvin Kamara. They had a projected starter in his prime in Mark Ingram, and it took 4 weeks for Ingram and Kamara to force Peterson out of the rotation. It’s not crazy to think Darwin and Damien could do the same with McCoy here. McCoy may have some juice left, but it hasn’t really shown itself the past couple years in Buffalo. This is a backfield to monitor closely early in the season.

RB Alexander Mattison, MIN (Wk. 1: vs. Atl.): Latavius Murray averaged about 6 and a half carries per game last season in the games that Dalvin Cook was healthy. This should be Cook’s backfield so long as he can keep himself on the field. The Vikings are a 4 and a half point favorite this week so the game script should be positive, but I don’t think there will be enough upside to make Mattison worth a play. Keep on eye on if he gets goal line work though. There’s value in being a touchdown vulture.

WR Preston Williams, MIA (Wk. 1: vs. Bal.): The Dolphins are a touchdown underdog in this matchup so they should be throwing a bit and Ryan Fitzpatrick is always willing to let it fly, but it’s still unclear how the wide receiver depth chart will look in week one. Even if Williams logs a lot of snaps, the Ravens outside corners are fantastic and it’ll be an uphill battle to be useful in this one for Preston.

WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside, PHI (Wk. 1: vs. Was.): If DeSean Jackson is unable to play this week due to his finger injury, JJ would be an intriguing TD dart throw. Unfortunately for him, it sounds like Jackson is going to play. The Eagles have an implied total of 28 points in this one so there is plenty to go around if Arcega-Whiteside does wind up with an expanded role, so watch the injury report on D-Jax.

WRs KeeSean Johnson & Andy Isabella, ARI (Wk. 1: vs. Det.): Both players got a notable downgrade in their week 1 outlook when the Cardinals released their depth chart with Michael Crabtree listed as a starter in 3-WR sets. The Cardinals have the offense that we know the least about at this point. They may play a bunch of 4-WR sets like Kingsbury did as a college coach, and they will probably rotate a bunch of receivers into the game. Isabella and Johnson are both likely to log some snaps. One thing we do know about Arizona is that Larry Fitzgerald will be playing in the slot, and the Lions are most vulnerable over the middle. Johnson and Isabella are both no more than dart throws in DFS tournaments in week 1.

WR AJ Brown, TEN (Wk. 1: @Cle.): Brown missed time in camp with a leg injury, and there are just too many questions about what his usage will look like to trust him in any formats this week. The Titans’ offense isn’t expected to be a volume passing attack, and he’s still got to carve out place in the pecking order with established vets Corey Davis, Adam Humphries and Delanie Walker ahead of him right now.

WRs Marquise Brown & Miles Boykin, BAL (Wk. 1: @Mia.): The Ravens are a 6.5-point favorite this week so the passing volume will probably be limited. Hollywood Brown is still working on getting back up to game speed in his recovery from offseason Lisfranc surgery. He’ll play in week one, but he probably won’t have his usual explosiveness early in the season. Boykin could have some sneaky upside in DFS tournaments as a minimum-priced option, but he will probably be squaring off against the best part of the Dolphins’ defense, Xavien Howard. Both guys are best left out of your lineups in week 1.

WRs Terry McLaurin & Kelvin Harmon, WAS (Wk. 1: @Phi.): It’s hard to buy into anyone in the Washington passing attack in week one, but the ball will have to go somewhere if Jordan Reed is unable to play due to a concussion. My best guess of where the ball will go is to Trey Quinn, Vernon Davis, and Chris Thompson. McLaurin looks to have won a starting job on the outside to open the season, so he’s the better option of the two rookies this week, but I’d avoid both. Washington will try to establish the running game and keep the Philly offense off the field as much as they can.

WR Hunter Renfrow, OAK (Wk. 1: vs. Den.): There will be weeks when Renfrow is a sneaky PPR flex option, but week one against all-world slot corner Chris Harris Jr. isn’t one of them. There’s no reason to try him out this week even with the news that Antonio Brown is being suspended.

TE TJ Hockenson, DET (Wk. 1: @Ari.): I’d expect Hockenson to be splitting snaps with Jesse James in week one, and the Lions will likely want to go run-heavy to slow down the game and keep Arizona’s high-octane offense sidelined. With Patrick Peterson out and possibly Haason Reddick as well, the offense should run through Kerryon Johnson and the perimeter receivers. Arizona’s defense allowed the 2^nd-fewest tight end points in the league last year. All signs point to Hockenson being better suited for your bench than your lineup this week.

TE Irv Smith Jr., MIN (Wk. 1: vs. Atl.): There has been a lot of talk about the Vikings running more 2-TE sets this season with Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith, and that seems to make sense given that their number 3 receiver to open the year is probably Josh Doctson (the alternative is Chad Beebe). I’d still like to see it in action and see Smith make an impact before I trust him in lineups. The Vikings want to be a run-first offense and you know Diggs & Thielen will get their targets. For week 1, other cheap DFS tight end options I’d prefer over Smith include Vernon Davis (if Reed is out), Adam Shaheen (if Burton is out), Will Dissly, and CJ Uzomah.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Justice Hill, BAL (Wk. 1: @Mia.): The Ravens are a 6.5-point road favorite this week against what might be the worst team in the NFL. Their offense projects to be run-heavy even in neutral game scripts. In a game like this, 40+ rushing attempts is very possible for them. Mark Ingram will start to open the year, and Gus Edwards is still on the roster, but I’d expect Hill to be the first guy off the bench and not Gus. Their OC just said today that everyone will play and they’ll ride the hot hand. First round pick Christian Wilkins may provide some help for the Dolphins abysmal run defense, but the entire defensive unit outside of Xavien Howard will be bad this year. Hill has a great chance at an expanded role this week if the Ravens play from ahead as expected. Kenneth Dixon averaged nearly 10 carries per game as the RB2 in Baltimore over the final 5 games last season. If the Ravens play from ahead, Hill probably gets more than that. He’s a bargain in DFS lineups and a playable flex option in deep leagues.

RB Tony Pollard, DAL (Wk. 1: vs. NYG): The luster came off Pollard awfully quick when Zeke signed his mega extension this week, but hopefully you didn’t drop him when you heard the news. The Cowboys didn’t draft Pollard expecting him to assume the lead back role. They drafted him because he’s a dynamic receiving back and Zeke wasn’t all that efficient as a receiver last season. Elliott ranked 15^th in yards per target out of 19 backs who saw at least 50 targets. Obviously with the money Dallas is paying him Zeke is going to have a workhorse role, but that doesn’t mean Pollard won’t have one at all. He may even steal some slot snaps and targets from Randall Cobb. For week 1, I can’t imagine that Zeke will walk right back into a full workload. Reports are out that he will only see 20-25 snaps. If that proves true, Pollard should be in play as a flex option in most formats. The Giants allowed the 8^th-most RB points per game last season and didn’t really make strides to improve that unit. Like Baltimore, Dallas is a touchdown favorite and already leans more run-heavy in neutral game scripts.

WR DK Metcalf, SEA (Wk. 1: vs. Cin.): DK is a risky play this week since he just had his knee scoped a couple weeks ago, but Pete Carroll says he’s good to go and the matchup is an enticing one. His snaps might be limited, but he specializes in the long ball and the Bengals allowed the 3^rd-most completions of 20+ yards and the 4^th-most completions of 40+ yards last year. They haven’t done much to address the secondary. Metcalf will need a deep ball or 2 to return value, but he is an intriguing swing to take in DFS tournaments.

WR Deebo Samuel, SF (Wk. 1: @TB): I list Deebo here solely as a guy to stash on the bench for now. He shouldn’t be a free agent in leagues deeper than 10 teams, but he’s on rosters in just 18% of Yahoo and ESPN leagues. It’s only a matter of time before Samuel makes his way into a starter’s role in 3-WR sets, but for now he may be running behind Kendrick Bourne. That makes him a guy to leave on the bench this week, even in a juicy matchup against the Bucs.

WR Parris Campbell, IND (Wk. 1: @LAC): Campbell lands in the same boat as Deebo. He’s rostered in even fewer leagues than Samuel – 7% of ESPN leagues and 6% on Yahoo. The Colts and Frank Reich have been raving about him throughout the summer and he should be a big part of their plans this year. He was limited to just one preseason game by a hamstring issue, but the Colts have said that Campbell won’t be limited at all in week one. He should open the year as their starting slot receiver over Chester Rogers. I’d still like to see what his usage will look like in this offense before throwing him into a lineup. He didn’t log a single preseason snap with Jacoby Brissett under center and the Colts might play more 2-TE sets than the average team with Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron on the roster. Outside of TY Hilton and Marlon Mack, the Colts are an offense to monitor early in the season before trusting their players in your lineups, but if Campbell is on the wire right now someone is going to get a great in-season pickup when they snag him.

WR Damion Willis, CIN (Wk. 1: @Sea.): Willis is an interesting name because he came out of nowhere this summer to take a starting spot across from Tyler Boyd in the Bengals’ offense with AJ Green sidelined. He was a vertical threat at Troy and should be a nice complement to possession receiver Boyd until AJG returns. Willis is a big target at 6’3”, 204, and had a 65^th percentile speed score as a prospect. He’s worth stashing in deeper leagues in case he flashes in week 1.

TE Noah Fant, DEN (Wk. 1: @Oak.): The Oakland Raiders have been notoriously bad at covering the TE position in recent years. Over the past 5 years, they’ve allowed the 13^th, 3^rd, 9^th, 6^th and 3^rd -most TE points per game. They return largely the same personnel at safety and outside linebacker from that group that allowed the 3^rd -most last year. They did add Lamarcus Joyner, but this will still be a sub-standard unit. Joe Flacco loves to target the tight end position – 21% of his career throws have gone to the position and Fant’s biggest competition on the roster is Jeff Heuerman who saw a career-high 48 targets last season. Coach Vic Fangio said this week that Fant will be “out there a lot” against the Raiders. If he sees 6+ targets he’ll prove to be a bargain at his $3,400 DraftKings price tag.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Keep an eye on the injury report through the week and make sure not to start anyone who is inactive. If you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about anything included in the article, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.