Welcome back to the Rookie Report! It’s been a long, arduous offseason, but we’re finally almost back to regular season football. Some of you may have already drafted your teams for 2019, but if you haven’t I’ve got some info that may help you decide which rookies to target. The rookies are always tricky to figure out. We’ve got no track record to go off of, and you wind up reading the tea leaves on coachspeak and preseason snaps to try and figure out what their roles will look like. I’m here to provide a little bit more detail on the relevant rookies for you.
These won’t be typical rookie rankings. Instead, I’m going to give you one interesting fact about each rookie and provide a little context to what it means for this season. Obviously stats can be misleading and some of these facts are going to help paint the picture I see for these guys. You should do some research of your own on them…I just want to provide some additional details you may not be considering.
I’ll separate the players by their expected roles for 2019. First we’ll look at guys who are slated to start right away, then guys who should be heavily involved rotational players or take a starting job early in the season, then guys who are a little deeper into the rotation or could win a job later in the year, and finally we’ll look at a couple of handcuffs/fliers that could move into a decent role if the starter gets hurt or falters badly. Let’s dive in…
Projected Starters:
QB Kyler Murray, ARI
Fact: In Kliff Kingsbury’s career as a college head coach and offensive coordinator, his teams finished with average ranks of 16th in points per game, 9th in offensive plays per game, and 7th in pass attempts per game nationally.
Kyler has been one of the more polarizing players in the fantasy community this offseason. A lot of fantasy analysts have already anointed him a fantasy stud before he’s played his first regular season game. These rankings are a big part of why he’s getting that hype. Kliff’s offenses go at a fast tempo, they throw the ball a ton, and they score a lot of points. We’ve seen new innovative offenses that get borrowed from college have big success early – from the Wildcat to Chip Kelly and the Read-Option to the RPOs that have been all the rage recently. Is the Air Raid the next wave? If it is, we’re probably all too low on Murry as a fantasy QB, especially when you factor in his ability to run the ball. If you believe the Air Raid will work in the NFL, you should reach above ADP to snag Kyler in your drafts.
RB Josh Jacobs, OAK
Fact: As a head coach, Jon Gruden’s offenses have targeted the running back position an average of 147 times per season (126 in 2018).
Jacobs was an efficient receiver at Alabama when he got the chance, averaging nearly 12 yards per catch in his college career. He was drafted in the first round, which means the Raiders plan to use him a bunch this year. Jalen Richard was targeted 81 times last year. I’d expect Jacobs to take a big chunk of those targets from him. If the passing game work is there, Jacobs has a great chance to finish as an RB2 even if the Raiders struggle to run the ball efficiently.
RB David Montgomery, CHI
Fact: Since Pro Football Focus started tracking the stat in 2014, Montgomery has the two highest single-season totals of forced missed tackles (109 & 102).
Montgomery’s receiving ability is the biggest reason the Bears preferred him to Jordan Howard, but it’s his elusiveness that is going to keep him ahead of Mike Davis on the depth chart and in line to be the Bears’ lead back. Tarik Cohen will still have a prominent role in the offense, but Montgomery should be a borderline RB2 in what projects to be a dangerous offense.
RB Miles Sanders, PHI
Fact: In his 3 seasons as head coach, Doug Pederson’s leading rusher has averaged 11.7 targets in the passing game per year.
Pederson has seemingly preferred defined roles for his running backs. He’s had a different leading rusher each year in Philly – Ryan Mathews, LeGarrette Blount, and Josh Adams, and all 3 have been basically a zero in the passing game. Miles Sanders may be the guy that changes that, but Jordan Howard seems to be an ideal fit for the early down grinder role that Pederson has used. Sanders athleticism is off the charts, and he has a high ceiling for fantasy, but the risk of Jordan Howard having a bigger role than expected has me ranking Sanders behind Jacobs and Montgomery.
WR DK Metcalf, SEA
Fact: In 2018, Russell Wilson ranked 2nd in the NFL in completion % on passes that traveled more than 20 yards in the air (46.7%) and ranked 4th in attempts that traveled that far (4.7 per game).
Metcalf was a deep ball specialist at Ole Miss last season before getting hurt. He averaged 21.9 yards per catch, ranking 4th in the NCAA. He has a size-speed combination that is reminiscent of Calvin Johnson and seems like a great fit in the Seattle offense. The lack of passing volume caps Metcalf’s upside, but he’s a great late flier in non-PPR formats and he’s a guy you should be targeting in best ball formats.
WR Miles Boykin, BAL
Fact: Former Ravens John Brown and Michael Crabtree combined for 54 targets in the 7 games that Lamar Jackson started (7.7 per game).
That 7.7 targets per game would be great if they were all going to go to Boykin, but the Ravens also drafted Marquise Brown as the first WR off the board. Boykin has been getting a lot of hype this preseason and has played his way into a starting role, but unless the offense sees a substantial increase in passing volume he won’t be much more than bye week filler in deeper leagues. I actually like Boykin to lead the Ravens in receiving yards this year, but that probably makes him a WR4 for your fantasy team.
TE TJ Hockenson, DET
Fact: In the last 23 years, only 8 rookie tight ends have scored 82 or more fantasy points (non-PPR). Evan Engram finished as the TE13 with 81 points last year.
It’s pretty much standard knowledge for fantasy players that you should fade rookie tight ends in redraft leagues in most cases. Hockenson isn’t an exception to this. The Lions want to be a run-first football team and drafted Hock as much for his blocking ability as for what he can do as a receiver. If you’re drafting him as a top-12 TE, you’re making a mistake.
Heavy Rotational Players:
QB Dwayne Haskins, WAS
Fact: 2018 was the first time that Washington ranked lower than 8th in the NFL in completion % with Jay Gruden as head coach, and Haskins ranked 4th in the NCAA with a 70% completion percentage in 2018.
The motley crew of Alex Smith, Colt McCoy, and Josh Johnson managed just a 61.1% completion percentage last year, easily the worst team mark under Gruden. Case Keenum has only had a higher completion % than that twice in his career. Haskins’ accuracy should have him surpassing Keenum for the starting job sooner rather than later. He’s not worth considering in a 1-QB league, but could be worth a late flier in superflex and 2-QB formats.
RB Justice Hill, BAL
Fact: After Lamar Jackson took over as the starting QB, Baltimore’s running back group averaged 5.4 yards per carry. For the full season, the Carolina Panthers had the best yards per carry average in the NFL at 5.1.
The Ravens went out and spent a pretty penny on Mark Ingram in free agency, but Hill has been impressive in preseason action. It seems that he’ll have no trouble beating out Gus Edwards and Kenneth Dixon for the #2 running back job. That’s a role that Dixon saw 9.4 carries per game in over the final 5 weeks of 2018. If Hill has a similar workload this year, he’ll be a viable flex option most weeks, and there’s a chance he steals even more work from Ingram as the season goes on.
RB Tony Pollard, DAL
Fact: Pollard had more catches in his college career at Memphis (104) than any other notable rookie running back in this class.
The Zeke holdout makes it very possible that Pollard opens the season as the starter in Dallas. He’s been working exclusively with the ones in camp. He’ll be a good starting option on your fantasy squad in Elliott’s holdout carries over into the regular season. If Zeke does return, there should still be a role for Pollard as a change of pace back and receiver out of the backfield. Zeke was targeted 95 times last year, but averaged just 7.4 yards per catch. The Cowboys may want to be more efficient with those passes. Pollard should be drafted in just about all fantasy leagues.
RB Devin Singletary, BUF
Fact: According to PlayerProfiler.com, Singletary’s speed score is in the 16th percentile, his agility score is in the 18th percentile, his bench press reps were in the 13th percentile, and his SPARQ-x score was in the 13th percentile.
Singletary put up big numbers at Florida Atlantic, but the athletes he’ll be facing off with in the NFL are on a different level than what he faced in Conference USA. The big question is can he continue to get by with such below average athleticism? The Bills should be run-heavy again as an offense, but I’m less than eager to buy the hype that Singletary is going to overtake LeSean McCoy for the starting job. If McCoy is a surprise camp cut, Singletary should be drafted as an RB3, but he’s not a guy I’d be excited to draft.
RB Darwin Thompson, KC
Fact: Kareem Hunt averaged 14.5 yards per reception before being released in 2018. Damien Williams averaged 7.0 yards per reception. Darwin Thompson averaged 15.3 yards per reception in 2018 at Utah State.
Damien Williams has been talked up as the clear lead back in Kansas City, and he certainly played at a high level down the stretch to earn that job, but it’s not far-fetched to believe Thompson can be a better receiver out of the backfield than Dame. Williams was never more than ‘just a guy’ before his stretch run last year, and Thompson has looked fantastic in the preseason. I expect Thompson to forge a role early in the season and should be a guy you target in drafts. There will be plenty of fantasy points to go around in Kansas City.
WR N’Keal Harry, NE
Fact: The New England Patriots had 164 passing targets in the 2018 season that went to players who are no longer on the team.
The return of Josh Gordon has put a bit of a damper on Harry’s outlook and is slowly dropping his ADP, but I wouldn’t write him off completely. The Patriots depth chart is largely unsettled after Edelman and Gordon, and Harry’s high draft capital should help give him a leg up on Phillip Dorsett and fellow newcomers Maurice Harris and Jakobi Meyers. There has been a lot written about Harry’s struggles to get separation, but it’s not for a lack of athleticism. His SPARQ-x score was in the 98th percentile. You shouldn’t be drafting Harry as a starter, but he certainly has the upside to get there and should come at a steep discount. I know we’re all rooting for Josh Gordon, but he’s played in just 22 games in the past 5 years.
WR Marquise Brown, BAL
Fact: According to a 2016 study, the average recovery time from a Lisfranc surgery for an NFL player is 11 months. Marquise Brown had Lisfranc surgery in January.
The Ravens have said they expect him to be ready to play this year, but reports out of camp are that he has a ways to go to be ready for game action. I’ll believe he plays in week 1 when I see it. Brown is a player that wins with his speed, and the Lisfranc injury is one that is tough to come back from at full strength in year one. If his speed is affected at all, he’s likely to struggle to make a big impact this year, or at least in the early part of the year.
WR AJ Brown, TEN
Fact: The Titans ranked 25th in the NFL in percentage of plays run from 11 personnel (3 WRs, 1 RB, 1 TE) in 2018 at 57.1%.
No one seems quite sure of what kind of scheme new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith will run in Tennessee, but most of the talk from the team has hyped Derrick Henry as the guy they want to build around. That makes me believe they aren’t going to be increasing this ranking much if at all. AJ Brown seems locked in as a starter in 3-WR sets. He came back from missing time with injury to immediately run with the 1’s in the Titans’ most recent preseason game. The question is if he is going to play ahead of Adam Humphries in 2-WR sets. If not, I’m not sure I see him being all that useful in fantasy as a rookie. The Titans offense just hasn’t been productive enough with Mariota to count on a guy playing less than 60% of the snaps to be a fantasy factor.
WR Parris Campbell, IND
Fact: In his 5 years as an offensive coordinator and head coach, Frank Reich’s primary slot receiver has averaged 6.11 targets per game.
Campbell is trying to work his way back from a training camp hamstring issue, but there is a chance for a big role right away in a potent offense – the Colts finished 5th in scoring and 5th in passing yards in 2018. 6.11 targets per game would work out to about 98 for the season. 38 wide receivers had 98 or more targets last season, and Campbell is currently being drafted as the WR60. I’m not saying you should move Campbell into your top 40 receivers, but it would be wise for you to be willing to reach a bit above WR60 for him, and then to also draft Andrew Luck name your fantasy team ‘An American Werewolf and Parris’.
WR Deebo Samuel, SF
Fact: Deebo averaged 9.5 yards after the catch per reception last year at South Carolina. The 49ers ranked 3rd in the NFL in total yards after the catch in 2018.
A lot of teams have done a great job this draft season of identifying guys who are great fits in their offensive scheme, and Deebo is a prime example of that. Kyle Shanahan’s passing attack consistently gets receivers the ball with the opportunity for extra yardage after the catch, and Deebo thrived at South Carolina with the ball in his hands. He should have a role right away in San Francisco and it isn’t impossible that he winds up the eventual WR1 there rather than Dante Pettis.
WR Andy Isabella, ARI
Fact: In Kliff Kingsbury’s 9 years as a college head coach and offensive coordinator wide receivers under 6’ tall posted 8 seasons of 800+ yards, and 4 of them were over 1,000 yards.
Isabella stands just 5’9”, but that hasn’t typically been a problem for receivers playing for Kingsbury. 5’11” Keke Coutee posted 93-1,429-10 as a junior in 2017. 5’7” Jakeem Grant went 90-1,268-10 as a senior in 2015. Isabella played in a spread system at UMass and put those numbers to shame as a senior, tallying a 102-1,698-13 line in 2018. There is a ton of opportunity available in Arizona with Hakeem Butler likely to miss most or all of the season. Isabella should be on your radar as a late-round target.
WR KeeSean Johnson, ARI
Fact: Johnson ran a 4.6 second 40-yard dash at the NFL combine, and posted the worst vertical jump of any receiver there (30”).
Despite not being drafted until the 6th round last spring, there has been a lot of noise about Johnson possibly starting in 3-WR sets to open the year in the desert. That noise will get even louder with Hakeem Butler going down. The combine numbers are the biggest reason for his draft slide. They’re also the reason I’m a bit dubious of the hype surrounding him in camp, but he was very productive last year (95-1,340-8) and the air raid scheme doesn’t typically win with jump ball contested catches, so the vertical jump might not be a big problem for him. I’d prefer Isabella to Johnson, but if Johnson earns a starting role there is value here.
TE Noah Fant, DEN
Fact: 21.1% of Joe Flacco’s career pass attempts have targeted a tight end.
As of today, the projected starting tight end for the Broncos is Jeff Heuerman, who set a career high with 48 targets in 2018. Jake Butt is recovering from a torn ACL, and Matt LaCosse is gone. It’s tough to be certain what kind of offense new OC Rich Scangarello will run in Denver, but he comes from the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree. Shanahan’s offenses have ranked in the top-10 in pass attempts in 7 of his 11 seasons. If the Broncos are just at league average in pass attempts (550 last year), that would mean 115 or so targets for tight ends. Fant seems a good bet for 50+ targets even if he doesn’t overtake Heuerman. He’s an intriguing dart throw as a TE2 in deeper leagues.
Deeper Rotational Players:
RB Darrell Henderson, LAR
Fact: Through 2 preseason games, Malcolm Brown has played exactly zero snaps as the Rams have sat their starters.
With the fantasy community now believing that Todd Gurley’s knee is basically held together by tape and rubber bands, Darrell Henderson has been one of the hottest names of the offseason. It would make logical sense for the Rams to employ Gurley and Henderson in tandem like the Saints did with Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara. Even today there are reports from a local beat writer that he expects Henderson to see 9-12 touches per game. No one seems to be talking about Malcolm Brown. The Rams matched a multi-year offer sheet that Brown signed with the Lions to keep him and have held him out of preseason games along with the rest of their starters. If he cuts into Henderson’s expected workload at all, it makes Henderson extremely overpriced at his current ADP. He’s one player I’m steering clear of this season.
RB Alexander Mattison, MIN
Fact: In games that Dalvin Cook played in 2018, Latavius Murray averaged 6.8 carries per game.
Mattison won’t be more than a change of pace back so long as Cook is healthy this year. There is some question about that as Dalvin has played just 15 of a possible 32 games in his career so far, and Mattison has RB2 upside if something happens to Cook, but he shouldn’t be counted on to produce with Dalvin healthy.
WR Mecole Hardman, KC
Fact: Eight of Hardman’s 40 touches on offense in 2018 resulted in gains of 30 or more yards. The Chiefs led the NFL in pass plays of 20+ yards and ranked 3rd in pass plays of 40+ yards.
With the return of Tyreek Hill, the Chiefs probably have too many mouths to feed for Hardman to really break through in 2018, but he’s an explosive playmaker that lands in an offense that knows how to use them. Hardman will be a fantastic lottery ticket in best ball drafts, and a good late upside pick in deeper leagues. He also led the NCAA with 20.1 yards per punt return in 2018, so he will likely factor in the return game as well. Be aware of that if you are in a league that gives bonus points for return yards.
WR Terry McLaurin, WAS
Fact: With Kirk Cousins at QB in 2015-17, Washington ranked in the top 5 in the league each year in 20+ yard pass plays. Case Keenum ranked 11th in the NFL in 20+ yard passes in 2018.
McLaurin was a downfield burner in college, averaging 20 yards per catch in 2018. Case Keenum might not be a great signal caller, but he is more willing to push the ball downfield than anyone Washington trotted out at QB last season, and if/when he loses the job to Dwayne Haskins, McLaurin gets to play with his college QB again. McLaurin’s most useful place in fantasy this year will be as a late round best ball target. I don’t think the Washington offense will be consistent enough to make him a weekly option.
WR Kelvin Harmon, WAS
Fact: The Redskins played in 11 personnel (3 WR, 1 RB, 1 TE) on 71.9% of their offensive snaps last season, 5th-highest in the NFL. Trey Quinn, Paul Richardson, and Josh Doctson have combined to miss 54 games in their 8 professional seasons (Quinn 13 in 1 year, Richardson 26 in 5 years, Doctson 15 in 3 years).
Washington has already made it clear that Trey Quinn is locked in as the starting slot receiver this year, but Richardson and Doctson aren’t guaranteed anything, and no one in that trio has a great track record of staying on the field. McLaurin will probably get the first crack at breaking the WR rotation, but Harmon’s track record of production at NC State was impressive. He topped 1,000 yards in each of the last 2 seasons but plummeted in the draft due to poor testing at the combine. Harmon has already showcased sure hands and aggressive mentality when the ball is in the air this preseason. Those traits should serve him well at the NFL level, especially playing with a rookie QB. Harmon is a waiver wire option to keep an eye on in PPR leagues.
WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside, PHI
Fact: Alshon Jeffery has missed 14 games in the past 4 years, and in his 2 seasons in Philadelphia he’s been targeted in the red zone 28 times (15 of them inside the 10-yard line).
JJAW has been impressing in camp, and he’ll likely push for some playing time this year even if everyone is healthy, but there are so many weapons in Philly it’ll be tough for him to break through. His real value would come if anything happened to Alshon. Arcega-Whiteside is a big target who was a red zone maven at Stanford, scoring on more than 20% of his career catches in college. He’d be a popular target for Wentz in the red zone if Alshon were out, and he is likely to be Alshon’s eventual replacement. Jeffery is a free agent after the season.
WR Preston Williams, MIA
Fact: Devante Parker has never finished higher than the PPR WR51 in his 4 NFL seasons, and that finish occurred in 2016.
Kenny Stills is locked in as the team’s WR1, and it will likely be Jakeem Grant or Albert Wilson starting in the slot in Miami. That means Williams’ path to playing time goes through Devante Parker (barring injury). Parker has been hyped as a breakthrough candidate each and every offseason of his career, but his production has made him look more like a poor man’s Rueben Randle. Williams was a blue-chip recruit out of high school who got in trouble for a domestic incident while at Tennessee. He then transferred to Colorado State and posted 96-1,345-14 in his only season there. His checkered past is what caused him to go undrafted, but if he can stay out of trouble he’s got a bright future. If he’s still sitting there in the late rounds of your draft you should pick him up.
TE Irv Smith Jr., MIN
Fact: Smith’s 710 receiving yards were the highest single-season total by an Alabama tight end since Ozzie Newsome in 1977 (804 yards).
That’s right…Smith had a more productive season last year as a receiver than OJ Howard ever did at Bama. He’s not as freakish of an athlete as Howard, but the Vikings have already talked about using more 2-tight end sets this year to get him on the field with Kyle Rudolph. I don’t believe there will be a ton of fantasy value for Smith as a rookie, but this is a guy you should be trying to acquire in-season in dynasty leagues if his owner gets impatient with the lack of starter production this year. If he continues to impress, the Vikings will clear the way for him to start sooner than later despite the extension they handed out to Kyle Rudolph.
Handcuffs and Late Draft Fliers:
QB Daniel Jones, NYG
Fact: Ben McAdoo coached exactly zero games for the Giants after starting Geno Smith over Eli Manning in week 13, 2017.
It’ll be hard to keep Jones off the field all year if the Giants end up playing as poorly as most people expect them to, but it’s safe to assume Pat Shurmur won’t make the switch at QB without the blessing of owner John Mara. Mara was quoted earlier this preseason saying “Eli starting all 16 games would be ideal.” When Shurmur was asked about whether there is a QB competition, his reply was “Well, you heard it from the owner.” Jones has looked decent in the preseason, but it seems unlikely he’ll play any time soon.
RB Damien Harris, NE
Fact: Harris tallied 226 more carries in his Alabama career than teammate Josh Jacobs did, averaged a half yard more per carry than Jacobs (6.4-5.9) and was drafted 63 picks after Jacobs in the NFL draft.
That stat isn’t a knock on Jacobs, it’s praise for Harris. Damien is an impressive runner who will have a ton of value if anything happens to Sony Michel. Sony did miss 3 games as a rookie with knee issues, and I’d expect Harris to slot right into that role if those issues came back this year. Michel found the end zone 12 times in 16 games last year including the postseason.
TE Jace Sternberger, GB
Fact: Tight ends on the Packers not named Jimmy Graham totaled 35 targets in 2018.
There just isn’t going to be much value for the backup tight end in this offense. Sternberger would become an appealing waiver target if anything happened to Graham. He averaged better than 17 yards per catch last year at Texas A&M and could potentially make magic with Aaron Rodgers if he got moved into a starting role, but I’d be surprised if he reached 40 targets on the year so long as Graham is healthy.
That’s all I’ve got for now. Hopefully this info helps you fine tune your draft strategy when it comes to the rookie crop. Feel free to reach out on twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you want to yell at me about anything posted above or have any questions about rookies I didn’t include. I’ll be back in a couple weeks to give some insights into the week 1 rookie matchups, so be sure to come back and check it out. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
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