Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Our long football-less national nightmare is finally over. Week one is upon us! By now you’ve hopefully you’ve made it through your draft and are relatively happy with the team you’ve put together, but now you get the fun of managing the lineup week-to-week. Week one is typically the epitome of the ‘start your studs’ mantra. We have limited information when it comes to schemes for new play callers, which teams have made defensive improvements, and who will get substantial playing time. The preseason can help us decipher some of these things, but teams do a pretty good job of playing coy in August and keeping things under wraps until the games start to count. Week one isn’t the time to get cute with your lineup decisions. With that in mind, there are only going to be a few rookies that I’d recommend playing in week one. Most of the rookies mentioned this week will be guys you should sit or are upside options in DFS lineups or guys you should be stashing on your bench.
In case you’re new here, each week I’ll break down the rookie crop’s matchups and place the relevant players into categories of ‘Rookies to Start’, ‘Borderline Rookies’, ‘Rookies to Sit’, and ‘Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options’. Make sure to read the details rather than just the headers though. Usually there is additional context that is important with understanding what to do with each player depending on your league’s format. Let’s dive into week 1…
Rookies to Start:
RB David Montgomery, CHI (Wk. 1: vs. GB): After trading away Jordan Howard in the offseason, the Bears traded up in the draft to take Montgomery in the 3rd round with the hope that he would be their feature back. They signed Mike Davis as insurance, but all reports out of camp say Montgomery has been everything the Bears hoped he would be. Tarik Cohen will still factor in, but I expect Montgomery to be their starter out of the gate. The Packers revamped their defense a bit in the offseason, but losing Mike Daniels at DT is unlikely to be a positive change for a unit that ranked 23rd in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA last year and dead last in pass defense DVOA on throws to running backs. Montgomery will be a bargain in DFS lineups in week 1 and should probably be in your starting lineup if you drafted him.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Kyler Murray, ARI (Wk. 1: @Det.): We’re only a few days away from finally seeing the Cardinals pull back the curtain on Kliff Kingsbury’s air raid offense. The Cardinals haven’t wowed anyone in the preseason, but they were intentionally vanilla in their play calling and didn’t want to tip their hand about the scheme. That’ll change Sunday and we’ll get to see if this is all hype or if the air raid will be the next evolution of NFL offenses. If things go well for the offense this week Murray has massive upside, but there is obvious risk as there is with any brand new offense. The matchup is a good one on paper. The Lions had one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL last year. They upgraded by bringing in Rashaan Melvin and Justin Coleman at corner, but they still lack quality coverage linebackers and should be vulnerable over the middle. One of the biggest aspects of Murray’s game, his rushing ability, might not be a huge factor in week 1. The Lions allowed the 2nd-fewest rushing yards to opposing QBs last season, and 6 of their games were against QBs who finished in the top-9 in rushing yards at the position (Russ, Josh Allen, Dak, Cam Newton, and Trubisky x 2). While there are safer options out there, none of them will make you feel more alive than starting Murray. He could completely faceplant, or he could have a Cam Newton-esque debut. In his first NFL game, Newton posted 422 passing yards and 3 total TDs (2 passing, 1 rushing).
RB Josh Jacobs, OAK (Wk. 1: vs. Den.): The Broncos were a middling run defense a year ago (ranked 16th in run defense DVOA) and didn’t do much from a personnel standpoint to address it, but new head coach Vic Fangio should get as much out of this unit as possible. Fangio’s defenses have ranked in the top-7 in rushing yards allowed in 5 of his last 8 seasons as a defensive coordinator, and in the top-10 in fewest rushing TDs allowed in 7 of 10 seasons. Jacobs will get a lot of volume, which puts him squarely in play as a RB2/flex option, but he isn’t an automatic start.
RB Miles Sanders, PHI (Wk. 1: vs. Was.): The Eagles enter week 1 as a 10-point favorite over Washington which should bode well for Sanders, but there are reasons for caution. For starters, Sanders is unlikely to open the season as the bellcow back. Head coach Doug Pederson talked openly this week about using a committee – “For us here, it’s worked. And we’ll continue to [use a committee].” Jordan Howard is going to get a share of the work and may get the goal line carries, and Darren Sproles will mix in as well. Washington is also a better run defense than the overall numbers from last year would suggest. Before Alex Smith’s injury torpedoed their season, they were on pace to finish 4th in the league in points allowed and 5th in rushing yards allowed. It can’t be completely ignored that they did fall apart after Smith went down, but they have the personnel to be a formidable unit once again. Sanders has the upside to be a great option this week, but the floor is a little lower than you like to see this week.
Rookies to Sit:
RB Darrell Henderson, LAR (Wk. 1: @Car.): We really have no idea how much Henderson is going to play this week and his DFS price tag is a bit too rich for my blood with that much uncertainty, especially against a tough defense. The Panthers allowed the 5th-fewest RB points per game last year and the 2nd-fewest RB receiving yards. Todd Gurley isn’t going to see the same workload he did last year with his knee issues, but the Rams really like Malcolm Brown as well. I’d give this backfield a week two to play out to get a better idea of what the workload split will look like before trusting anyone other than Gurley.
RB Devin Singletary, BUF (Wk. 1: @NYJ): Singletary has been a popular name in fantasy with LeSean McCoy being cut over the weekend, but don’t get carried away and plug him in right away. The Bills are going to ease Singletary into more of a featured role as the season goes on and he likely won’t be more than part of a timeshare early in the year. Frank Gore will probably lead the team in carries, and TJ Yeldon will have a role in the passing game as well. The matchup in week one isn’t a great one. The Jets allowed the 12th-fewest RB points per game last year and added Quinnen Williams and CJ Mosley to the front seven in the offseason. They should be an improved unit. I’d steer clear of Singletary in week 1.
RB Darwin Thompson, KC (Wk. 1: @Jax.): On the other side of the LeSean McCoy news, Darwin Thompson’s outlook got markedly less sunny as the Chiefs signed Shady after Buffalo cut him. Both Thompson and projected starter Damien Williams will take a tumble in early season rankings as the workload split gets murkier. I’d keep Thompson benched until things get a little clearer, but I wouldn’t cut him outside of the shallowest leagues. This backfield reminds me a bit of the Saints in 2017 when they brought in Adrian Peterson and drafted Alvin Kamara. They had a projected starter in his prime in Mark Ingram, and it took 4 weeks for Ingram and Kamara to force Peterson out of the rotation. It’s not crazy to think Darwin and Damien could do the same with McCoy here. McCoy may have some juice left, but it hasn’t really shown itself the past couple years in Buffalo. This is a backfield to monitor closely early in the season.
RB Alexander Mattison, MIN (Wk. 1: vs. Atl.): Latavius Murray averaged about 6 and a half carries per game last season in the games that Dalvin Cook was healthy. This should be Cook’s backfield so long as he can keep himself on the field. The Vikings are a 4 and a half point favorite this week so the game script should be positive, but I don’t think there will be enough upside to make Mattison worth a play. Keep on eye on if he gets goal line work though. There’s value in being a touchdown vulture.
WR Preston Williams, MIA (Wk. 1: vs. Bal.): The Dolphins are a touchdown underdog in this matchup so they should be throwing a bit and Ryan Fitzpatrick is always willing to let it fly, but it’s still unclear how the wide receiver depth chart will look in week one. Even if Williams logs a lot of snaps, the Ravens outside corners are fantastic and it’ll be an uphill battle to be useful in this one for Preston.
WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside, PHI (Wk. 1: vs. Was.): If DeSean Jackson is unable to play this week due to his finger injury, JJ would be an intriguing TD dart throw. Unfortunately for him, it sounds like Jackson is going to play. The Eagles have an implied total of 28 points in this one so there is plenty to go around if Arcega-Whiteside does wind up with an expanded role, so watch the injury report on D-Jax.
WRs KeeSean Johnson & Andy Isabella, ARI (Wk. 1: vs. Det.): Both players got a notable downgrade in their week 1 outlook when the Cardinals released their depth chart with Michael Crabtree listed as a starter in 3-WR sets. The Cardinals have the offense that we know the least about at this point. They may play a bunch of 4-WR sets like Kingsbury did as a college coach, and they will probably rotate a bunch of receivers into the game. Isabella and Johnson are both likely to log some snaps. One thing we do know about Arizona is that Larry Fitzgerald will be playing in the slot, and the Lions are most vulnerable over the middle. Johnson and Isabella are both no more than dart throws in DFS tournaments in week 1.
WR AJ Brown, TEN (Wk. 1: @Cle.): Brown missed time in camp with a leg injury, and there are just too many questions about what his usage will look like to trust him in any formats this week. The Titans’ offense isn’t expected to be a volume passing attack, and he’s still got to carve out place in the pecking order with established vets Corey Davis, Adam Humphries and Delanie Walker ahead of him right now.
WRs Marquise Brown & Miles Boykin, BAL (Wk. 1: @Mia.): The Ravens are a 6.5-point favorite this week so the passing volume will probably be limited. Hollywood Brown is still working on getting back up to game speed in his recovery from offseason Lisfranc surgery. He’ll play in week one, but he probably won’t have his usual explosiveness early in the season. Boykin could have some sneaky upside in DFS tournaments as a minimum-priced option, but he will probably be squaring off against the best part of the Dolphins’ defense, Xavien Howard. Both guys are best left out of your lineups in week 1.
WRs Terry McLaurin & Kelvin Harmon, WAS (Wk. 1: @Phi.): It’s hard to buy into anyone in the Washington passing attack in week one, but the ball will have to go somewhere if Jordan Reed is unable to play due to a concussion. My best guess of where the ball will go is to Trey Quinn, Vernon Davis, and Chris Thompson. McLaurin looks to have won a starting job on the outside to open the season, so he’s the better option of the two rookies this week, but I’d avoid both. Washington will try to establish the running game and keep the Philly offense off the field as much as they can.
WR Hunter Renfrow, OAK (Wk. 1: vs. Den.): There will be weeks when Renfrow is a sneaky PPR flex option, but week one against all-world slot corner Chris Harris Jr. isn’t one of them. There’s no reason to try him out this week even with the news that Antonio Brown is being suspended.
TE TJ Hockenson, DET (Wk. 1: @Ari.): I’d expect Hockenson to be splitting snaps with Jesse James in week one, and the Lions will likely want to go run-heavy to slow down the game and keep Arizona’s high-octane offense sidelined. With Patrick Peterson out and possibly Haason Reddick as well, the offense should run through Kerryon Johnson and the perimeter receivers. Arizona’s defense allowed the 2nd-fewest tight end points in the league last year. All signs point to Hockenson being better suited for your bench than your lineup this week.
TE Irv Smith Jr., MIN (Wk. 1: vs. Atl.): There has been a lot of talk about the Vikings running more 2-TE sets this season with Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith, and that seems to make sense given that their number 3 receiver to open the year is probably Josh Doctson (the alternative is Chad Beebe). I’d still like to see it in action and see Smith make an impact before I trust him in lineups. The Vikings want to be a run-first offense and you know Diggs & Thielen will get their targets. For week 1, other cheap DFS tight end options I’d prefer over Smith include Vernon Davis (if Reed is out), Adam Shaheen (if Burton is out), Will Dissly, and CJ Uzomah.
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
RB Justice Hill, BAL (Wk. 1: @Mia.): The Ravens are a 6.5-point road favorite this week against what might be the worst team in the NFL. Their offense projects to be run-heavy even in neutral game scripts. In a game like this, 40+ rushing attempts is very possible for them. Mark Ingram will start to open the year, and Gus Edwards is still on the roster, but I’d expect Hill to be the first guy off the bench and not Gus. Their OC just said today that everyone will play and they’ll ride the hot hand. First round pick Christian Wilkins may provide some help for the Dolphins abysmal run defense, but the entire defensive unit outside of Xavien Howard will be bad this year. Hill has a great chance at an expanded role this week if the Ravens play from ahead as expected. Kenneth Dixon averaged nearly 10 carries per game as the RB2 in Baltimore over the final 5 games last season. If the Ravens play from ahead, Hill probably gets more than that. He’s a bargain in DFS lineups and a playable flex option in deep leagues.
RB Tony Pollard, DAL (Wk. 1: vs. NYG): The luster came off Pollard awfully quick when Zeke signed his mega extension this week, but hopefully you didn’t drop him when you heard the news. The Cowboys didn’t draft Pollard expecting him to assume the lead back role. They drafted him because he’s a dynamic receiving back and Zeke wasn’t all that efficient as a receiver last season. Elliott ranked 15th in yards per target out of 19 backs who saw at least 50 targets. Obviously with the money Dallas is paying him Zeke is going to have a workhorse role, but that doesn’t mean Pollard won’t have one at all. He may even steal some slot snaps and targets from Randall Cobb. For week 1, I can’t imagine that Zeke will walk right back into a full workload. Reports are out that he will only see 20-25 snaps. If that proves true, Pollard should be in play as a flex option in most formats. The Giants allowed the 8th-most RB points per game last season and didn’t really make strides to improve that unit. Like Baltimore, Dallas is a touchdown favorite and already leans more run-heavy in neutral game scripts.
WR DK Metcalf, SEA (Wk. 1: vs. Cin.): DK is a risky play this week since he just had his knee scoped a couple weeks ago, but Pete Carroll says he’s good to go and the matchup is an enticing one. His snaps might be limited, but he specializes in the long ball and the Bengals allowed the 3rd-most completions of 20+ yards and the 4th-most completions of 40+ yards last year. They haven’t done much to address the secondary. Metcalf will need a deep ball or 2 to return value, but he is an intriguing swing to take in DFS tournaments.
WR Deebo Samuel, SF (Wk. 1: @TB): I list Deebo here solely as a guy to stash on the bench for now. He shouldn’t be a free agent in leagues deeper than 10 teams, but he’s on rosters in just 18% of Yahoo and ESPN leagues. It’s only a matter of time before Samuel makes his way into a starter’s role in 3-WR sets, but for now he may be running behind Kendrick Bourne. That makes him a guy to leave on the bench this week, even in a juicy matchup against the Bucs.
WR Parris Campbell, IND (Wk. 1: @LAC): Campbell lands in the same boat as Deebo. He’s rostered in even fewer leagues than Samuel – 7% of ESPN leagues and 6% on Yahoo. The Colts and Frank Reich have been raving about him throughout the summer and he should be a big part of their plans this year. He was limited to just one preseason game by a hamstring issue, but the Colts have said that Campbell won’t be limited at all in week one. He should open the year as their starting slot receiver over Chester Rogers. I’d still like to see what his usage will look like in this offense before throwing him into a lineup. He didn’t log a single preseason snap with Jacoby Brissett under center and the Colts might play more 2-TE sets than the average team with Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron on the roster. Outside of TY Hilton and Marlon Mack, the Colts are an offense to monitor early in the season before trusting their players in your lineups, but if Campbell is on the wire right now someone is going to get a great in-season pickup when they snag him.
WR Damion Willis, CIN (Wk. 1: @Sea.): Willis is an interesting name because he came out of nowhere this summer to take a starting spot across from Tyler Boyd in the Bengals’ offense with AJ Green sidelined. He was a vertical threat at Troy and should be a nice complement to possession receiver Boyd until AJG returns. Willis is a big target at 6’3”, 204, and had a 65th percentile speed score as a prospect. He’s worth stashing in deeper leagues in case he flashes in week 1.
TE Noah Fant, DEN (Wk. 1: @Oak.): The Oakland Raiders have been notoriously bad at covering the TE position in recent years. Over the past 5 years, they’ve allowed the 13th, 3rd, 9th, 6th and 3rd -most TE points per game. They return largely the same personnel at safety and outside linebacker from that group that allowed the 3rd -most last year. They did add Lamarcus Joyner, but this will still be a sub-standard unit. Joe Flacco loves to target the tight end position – 21% of his career throws have gone to the position and Fant’s biggest competition on the roster is Jeff Heuerman who saw a career-high 48 targets last season. Coach Vic Fangio said this week that Fant will be “out there a lot” against the Raiders. If he sees 6+ targets he’ll prove to be a bargain at his $3,400 DraftKings price tag.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Keep an eye on the injury report through the week and make sure not to start anyone who is inactive. If you have any specific questions or want to yell at me about anything included in the article, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
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