Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 8 finally brought us the scoring outburst we’ve been clamoring for all season. The week saw a season-high 8 games where the teams combined for 45+ points, and a season-high 9 skill players put up 30+ PPR points. I’m sure you saw higher overall scores across your fantasy leagues in week 8, and hopefully you were the beneficiary of some of those scoring outbursts. Don’t get too used to it though – week 9 is the one of just two weeks this season with 6 teams on a bye in the same week, so overall scores will probably come down. You’re likely going to have to do work to fill in some lineup gaps this week, and if you’ve been here before, you know I’ve got some rookies to tell you about that could help you do that.

Week 8 was sort of a mixed bag for the rookies. We saw Garrett Wilson get his season back on track with the 2^nd 100-yard game of his career. Dameon Pierce and Kenneth Walker III both had lackluster days that were salvaged by late TDs. Tyler Allgeier outproduced them both. Romeo Doubs and Samori Toure both got into the end zone for the Packers on Sunday night while Christian Watson left with a concussion. Chris Olave and Alec Pierce had ho-hum games while George Pickens and Drake London disappointed. Malik Willis got a win in his first start but posted an abysmal fantasy day. Which of these guys can you rely on to help you through the byes in week 9? That’s what I’m here to discuss.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Any data on route participation, air yards, and other usage rates are per Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report on Pro Football Focus.

Let’s get into week 9…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

RB Kenneth Walker III, SEA (Wk. 9: @Ari.): Walker looked like he was going to be a huge let down in week 8, but a 4^th-quarter touchdown helped propel him to a RB25 finish that didn’t kill you if he was in your lineup. It was Walker’s 4^th straight game with a touchdown and 3^rd straight with 18+ carries. He ran for 97 yards and a score in the first meeting with these Cardinals back in week 6. The lack of meaningful passing game targets will always limit Walker’s ceiling, but his volume on the ground keeps him a safe weekly RB2, especially facing a defense he’s already smashed against in a week with so many byes.

WR Chris Olave, NO (Wk. 9: vs. Bal.): Olave had his worst fantasy day since week 1 last Sunday, and he still managed to post double-digit PPR points. Olave was still heavily involved in the passing game (25% target share and 32% air yardage share), but the Saints just played from ahead all day and didn’t need to throw much in a 24-0 victory. Things should go back to normal in week 9. New Orleans is a 3-point underdog at home against the Ravens on Monday night. At some point Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry will return the lineup, but for now those guys feel like figments of our imagination. Olave likely will maintain the WR1 role when they’re back, and the Ravens allow the 5^th-most WR points per game. He's a top-24 option this week no matter who else is able to suit up.

UPDATE: Michael Thomas has been placed on IR and likely will miss the remainder of the season.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL (Wk. 9: vs. LAC): This recommendation is contingent on the status of Cordarrelle Patterson this week, but if C-Patt sits, I like Allgeier as a strong RB2 option in this one. Allgeier has played more than 55% of the snaps in all 4 games Patterson has missed, and he’s led the backfield in PPR points in 3 of them and in routes run in all 4. The Chargers have allowed the 2^nd-most RB points per game and rank just 23^rd in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA. It’s one of the best matchups a running back can draw. If Cordarrelle returns, you could probably still get away with starting Allgeier as a RB3 if you’re in a pinch.

RB Dameon Pierce, HOU (Wk. 9: vs. Phi.): My fears about Pierce last week came to fruition for most of his day against the Titans’ stout run defense. Pierce had tallied just 6.8 PPR points for the day prior to his garbage-time TD in the final 30 seconds that saved his afternoon. You probably were breathing a sigh of relief when he got into the end zone if you started him last week, but you might’ve missed a positive change to his role while you were stressing over his stat line. PFF’s Dwain McFarland pointed out this week that Pierce was on the field for 100% of the Texans’ snaps in the two-minute offense. They were the first snaps he’s seen all year in the two-minute drill, and it was on those snaps that he scored that late touchdown. Those are the snaps where Pierce can put up garbage time receiving production and pad both his floor and his ceiling. Despite their 7-0 record, the Eagles are just a middling RB defense. They’ve allowed the 15^th-most RB points per game, and rank 22^nd in run defense DVOA. Pierce would be a reasonable RB2 this week on just his rushing role, but if the two-minute snaps continue he’s got the upside for a top-12 finish. The Texans should be fighting from behind late in this game.

WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 9: vs. Buf.): The Jets’ passing game has been pretty rough since Zach Wilson took the starting job back in week 4, but week 8 showed us that things aren’t as dire as they’ve seemed. Zach is still going to be inefficient, but when the game script is bad the passing volume is going to be there. Zach has started 5 games this season. In the three games where the Jets never trailed by more than 2 points, he averaged 22 passing attempts per game. In the other two games (both games where the Jets fell behind by double-digits), he averaged 38.5 attempts. They’re nearly certain to be in negative game script as 13-point underdogs against the Bills. Buffalo’s defense has been impressive, ranking 4^th in pass defense DVOA, but Garrett Wilson has benefitted from Elijah Moore being in the doghouse. He played his highest snap share of the season last week and piled up over 100 yards for the 2^nd time this year. He looks to be the team’s clear WR1 in a game where the Jets are likely to throw the ball 40+ times. He should be viewed as an upside WR2 this week and will probably be a bargain at his current price tag in DFS contests ($4,800 on DraftKings). With Breece Hall out for the season, games with negative game script could become more frequent for the Jets. Garrett Wilson is a guy you should be trying to trade for now before his price goes up.

WR Romeo Doubs, GB (Wk. 9: @Det.): Figuring out when to start Doubs this season has felt a bit like playing whack-a-mole. He pops up scoring points for a couple weeks, so you take a swing at starting him in your lineups, and then he disappears for a couple weeks, only to pop up again when you’ve already moved on. You’re always chasing those elusive weeks when he’s useful. On the plus side for Doubs, his playing time has remained consistent. He checks in above an 85% route participation rate every week, and he’s earned at least 7 targets in 4 of the last 6 games. There’s still plenty of volatility here, but with so many byes this week and Green Bay facing a Detroit defense that ranks dead last in pass defense DVOA, it's hard to view Doubs as anything less than a solid WR3 this week. Green Bay has one of the highest implied point totals of the week at 26.25 points, so this is an offense that you want to target for your lineups, and Doubs is a full-time player in it.

TE Isaiah Likely, BAL (Wk. 9: @NO): Mark Andrews status remains up in the air for week 9, and Rashod Bateman has already been ruled out. Likely could be the #2 target in this passing game on Monday night. The Saints have been erasing tight ends so far this season – no tight end has found the end zone against them or reached 7 fantasy points against them (half-PPR) all season – but Zach Ertz is the only quality tight end they’ve faced. The Ravens are going to have to lean on Likely if Andrews is out. Don’t worry about the matchup. Likely is probably going to finish as a top-12 tight end this week if Andrews sits. I’d be much less excited to start him if Andrews is able to play.

UPDATE: Rashod Bateman has been placed on IR and will miss the remainder of the season. Likely may have a bigger role moving forward even when Andrews is on the field.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

RB Brian Robinson Jr., WAS (Wk. 9: vs. Min.): Robinson’s week-to-week fantasy outlook hinges on volume and getting into the end zone. He’s averaged fewer than 4 yards per carry in every game he’s played this season, and he’s earned just two targets all year. That didn’t stop him from putting up respectable fantasy days in wins against the Bears and Packers, but the recent re-emergence of Antonio Gibson and negative game script in the 4^th quarter against the Colts resulted in B-Rob putting up just 2 fantasy points in week 8. I don’t see much reason to be optimistic about a bounce-back in week 9. The Vikings are favored by 3, and they rank 16^th in run defense DVOA and allow the 10^th-fewest RB points per game. 16^th may not sound very impressive, but Robinson failed to run efficiently against Chicago and Green Bay, who rank 28^th & 31^st respectively. This looks like a game where 10-12 carries from Robinson would be a positive result for him, and that kind of volume probably means around 35-40 yards. You’ll need a TD to not be disappointed. I’d look elsewhere unless you’re stuck.

RB Isiah Pacheco, KC (Wk. 9: vs. Ten.): Pacheco was announced as the Chiefs starting running back ahead of their week 7 tilt with the 49ers, but he handled all of 8 carries in that game, and 4 of them came in the 4^th quarter with the team up by double-digits. He did see a few more first half carries than usual, but it was far from the featured back role people were hoping for after the announcement. This is still a 3-way committee with CEH and Jerick McKinnon. Kansas City is an 11-point favorite this week, so there’s an opportunity for some extra garbage time carries, but the Titans rank 1^st in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 5^th-fewest running back points per game. Pacheco doesn’t catch passes (just 2 receptions all season), so he’s going to need to have success on the ground to post a useful day. He’s a low-end RB3 this week.

RB Rachaad White, TB (Wk. 9: vs. LAR): White continues to play just enough to keep himself in the borderline discussion each week. He’s handled between 7 and 9 touches in 5 straight games and consistently finishes as a PPR RB4. Leonard Fournette continues to handle the goal line touches and enough of the passing work that White lives on the fringe of useful. The Rams have allowed the 11^th-fewest running back points per game, so this isn’t the matchup to bet on White stepping up his production on that same workload. If you are desperate for a running back this week, White should be a fringe RB3 with all the byes going on, but I wouldn’t count on him for much more than that.

WR Drake London, ATL (Wk. 9: vs. LAC): London continues to be a victim of Arthur Smith’s run-heavy play calling, and I don’t see that getting better for him in week 9. The rookie hasn’t reached 8 PPR points in any of his last 5 games despite a 24.2% target share over that span. On paper, you may be looking at this game as a get-right spot for London. The Chargers seem like the kind of team that can put the Falcons in negative game script, and they allow the 12^th-most wide receiver points per game. It seems like a great opportunity for Atlanta’s WR1 to have a nice day. Unfortunately, the Chargers offense will be a lot less explosive without Keenan Allen or Mike Williams, and they boast one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. The Chargers have allowed a league-worst 6.1 yards per carry to opposing running backs. Game script might not be so negative for Atlanta, and the Falcons should be able to impose their will in the running game, especially with it looking like Cordarrelle Patterson will return from IR this week. Anything over 5 targets for London in this game should be seen as a win. That gets him to the fringe of being playable for week 9 with 6 teams off, but you likely have better options.

WR Alec Pierce, IND (Wk. 9: @NE): Pierce has topped 60 receiving yards or scored a touchdown in 5 of his last 6 games, but my concerns about passing volume with Sam Ehlinger taking over at QB proved to be valid in week 8. The young QB threw the ball just 23 times, with only 5 targets going to Pierce. Matt Ryan averaged 42.4 passing attempts per game in his 7 starts. Pierce has made the most of his opportunities this season, averaging over 10 yards per target in those last 6 games, a mark only 18 players have hit for the season so far, but the more concerning stat was that he saw his lowest route participation rate since week 4 at just 65%. The Colts played with 2 tight ends on the field more often after the QB switch, which cuts into Pierce’s playing time. He’s still a good bet to see right around 5 targets, and maybe a little bit more if Jonathan Taylor sits this week, but if you start him, you shouldn’t expect more than a floor performance. The Patriots rank 5^th in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 11^th fewest WR points per game. You could do worse than Pierce as a bye week fill in, but temper expectations.

WR Jahan Dotson, WAS (Wk. 9: vs. Min.): Dotson isn’t practicing yet this week as of Wednesday, but there’s a chance he could return for Sunday’s game. The matchup looks good on paper. The Vikings rank 22^nd in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 7^th-most WR points per game, but Dotson would be coming off a 4-week layoff and QB Taylor Heinicke has been leaning heavily on the guys he’s comfortable with – Terry McLaurin and Antonio Gibson. McLaurin has averaged 8 targets per game in Heinicke’s two starts, and he’s seen air yardage shares of 48% and 62% in those games. He’s the WR you want for fantasy this week. Dotson has some upside as a WR4 option if he does play, but I’d prefer other options if you’re not forced to start the rookie.

TE Cade Otton, TB (Wk. 9: vs. LAR): Cam Brate is practicing in a limited capacity as of Wednesday, so keep a close eye on the injury report if you’re considering Otton. If Brate plays, you certainly don’t want to plug Otton into lineups. If Brate sits, Otton is still not a great play this week against a Rams’ defense that allows the 3^rd-fewest tight end points per game. Only George Kittle and Zach Ertz have scored 7 points against them in a game this year, and Otton hasn’t reached a 15% target share in a game this season. In his productive weeks, Tom Brady has been throwing the ball 50+ times. Otton is a floor play TE2 this week if Brate sits.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

RB James Cook, BUF (Wk. 9: @NYJ): Cook seemed to finally gain some traction in the Bills offense in week 8, playing his second-highest snap share of the season and handling some touches in the 2^nd quarter while the game was still in doubt, but the Bills may have derailed that progress by trading for Nyheim Hines at the deadline. Cook may be back to being the RB3 in the offense this week. Buffalo is a two-TD favorite in this game, so there’s a very good chance that Cook gets some run in garbage time, but I wouldn’t count on big production from those carries against a Jets’ defense that ranks 8^th in run defense DVOA. Cook is nothing more than an upside dart throw this week for DFS contests and the deepest of season-long leagues.

RBs Kyren Williams & Ronnie Rivers, LAR (Wk. 9: @TB): Sean McVay has said Kyren Williams could be activated from IR for week 9, but it remains to be seen how big of a role he’ll step into after 7 weeks off. Ronnie Rivers led the backfield in touches last week, but he wasn’t effective with them, totaling just 7.6 PPR points. There’s no guarantee he leads the backfield again this week (my money would be on Darrell Henderson), but the Bucs allow the 6^th-fewest RB points per game. No running back in this muddied committee will be more than a desperation bye week fill-in.

UPDATE: Cam Akers returned to practice on Thursday and may be active for week 9, making this committee even less defined.

RB Raheem Blackshear, CAR (Wk. 9: @Cin.): Regardless of whether Chuba Hubbard can return this week or not, Blackshear doesn’t have fantasy relevance in week 9. Spencer Brown served as the change of pace back behind D’Onta Foreman in week 8, and Laviska Shenault more or less functioned as the receiving back. Blackshear played just 7 snaps against the Falcons, and I wouldn’t count on more this week.

RB Isaiah Spiller, LAC (Wk. 9: @Atl.): Spiller was finally active for the first time this season in week 7 ahead of the bye last week, but he played just 4 snaps and worked behind backup Sony Michel. It’s possible that could’ve been game-script related – the Chargers trailed for most of that game – but you can’t count on Spiller getting significant opportunities this week. The matchup is a good one. Atlanta ranks 26^th in run defense DVOA, but there’s no guarantee that Spiller gets more than 1 or 2 carries.

RB Snoop Conner, JAX (Wk. 9: vs. LV): Conner played just one offensive snap last week in his season debut. He’s not a fantasy option.

WR Tyquan Thornton, NE (Wk. 9: vs. Ind.): Thornton’s explosive speed always makes him a threat to break a big play, but he has fewer than 3 PPR points in 3 of his 4 games played this season. He scored 2 touchdowns in the other one. His route participation rate has been above 80% in each of the last two weeks, but the targets just haven’t been there. This week’s opponent, the Colts, allow the 2^nd-fewest WR points per game.

WRs Christian Watson & Samori Toure, GB (Wk. 9: @Det.): Watson suffered a concussion last week and seems unlikely to be ready to play in Detroit, and the likely return of Allen Lazard this week means Watson’s probably going to play only a handful of snaps if he’s able to clear the protocol. Toure scored a touchdown in week 8, but he played just 14 offensive snaps. Banking on another long TD from Toure on limited snaps this week is just asking to be let down.

WR Velus Jones Jr., CHI (Wk. 9: vs. Mia.): Jones had a season-high in touches in week 8, with 3. He’s made a couple nice plays this season when he’s gotten chances, but he’s too buried on the depth chart to be useful in fantasy leagues. The Bears also just traded for Chase Claypool and may get Byron Pringle back this week. Jones is only getting pushed further down that depth chart

WR Khalil Shakir, BUF (Wk. 9: @NYJ): Shakir hasn’t been targeted more than twice in any game that Isaiah McKenzie has been active for. You’d have to be pretty desperate to consider him this week.

WR Skyy Moore, KC (Wk. 9: vs. Ten.): Tennessee is a great matchup for wide receivers, but Moore is undoubtedly going to lose snaps after the acquisition of Kadarius Toney from the Giants. Moore was only playing around 30% of the offensive snaps over the last month anyway. Losing any of that playing time is likely the final nail in his fantasy coffin for 2022.

TE Chig Okonkwo, TEN (Wk. 9: @KC): Okonkwo has quietly seen his playing time go up in recent weeks. He had a season-high 50% route participation rate in week 8 and mostly played ahead of Austin Hooper. He’d be a sneaky TD dart throw this week facing a KC defense that has allowed 5 tight end scores in 7 games, but the Titans just don’t throw enough to rely on any of their pass catchers, especially if Ryan Tannehill is out again. Tannehill has thrown more than 25 pass attempts just once in his last 5 starts, and the Titans threw the ball just 10 times last week with Malik Willis under center. Game script could force them to throw more as 11-point underdogs in Kansas City, but look for the Titans to do everything they can to run the ball and keep it away from Patrick Mahomes. The floor here is non-existent, and the ceiling is maybe 4-5 targets.

TE Trey McBride, ARI (Wk. 9: vs. Sea.): The Seahawks have allowed the most TE points per game, but McBride hasn’t been targeted since week 4. He played 20 snaps in the first meeting with the Seahawks a couple weeks ago and didn’t see the ball come his way even once. He’s not an option this week.

TE Jelani Woods, IND (Wk. 9: @NE): I mentioned last week that I was concerned that the Colts’ passing volume would take a significant hit with the switch to Sam Ehlinger, and that proved to be a valid concern in his first start. Ehlinger attempted just 23 passes on Sunday, and only 4 of them targeted tight ends (none of them to Jelani Woods). The Patriots have allowed the 6^th-most tight end points per game this season, but the Colts would be wise to attack them on the ground. New England ranks 5^th in pass defense DVOA and 27^th in run defense DVOA. If Jonathan Taylor is unable to play, that could force a little more passing volume. It would make Woods an intriguing DFS dart throw, but nothing more than that. He's still mired in a 3-headed tight end rotation.

TEs Armani Rogers & Cole Turner, WAS (Wk. 9: vs. Min.): The Vikings have been vulnerable to tight ends, allowing the 7^th-most points per game to the position, but the Commanders’ tight ends not named Logan Thomas have had just one total outing with more than 3 targets in a game (John Bates in week 4). Thomas could return this week, but even if he doesn’t this is a 3-way logjam that doesn’t offer much fantasy upside. If Thomas sits and you want to throw a dart in a showdown contest at one of their tight ends, my money would be on Rogers ($600 on DraftKings), but none are very good options.

Rookies on Byes: QB Kenny Pickett, PIT, RB Jaylen Warren, PIT, RB Tyrion Davis-Price, SF, WR Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG, WR George Pickens, PIT, WR David Bell, CLE, WR Jalen Tolbert, DAL, TE Greg Dulcich, DEN, TEs Jake Ferguson & Peyton Hendershot, DAL

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Malik Willis, TEN (Wk. 9: @KC): To call Willis’ NFL debut a disappointment would be a huge understatement, but if Tannehill isn’t able to return this week I kind of like the rookie to have a modest bounce-back, at least from a fantasy perspective. Willis wasn’t asked to make plays in week 8 because the Titans didn’t need him to. The Texans were helpless to stop Derrick Henry and Dontrell Hilliard on the ground, and their banged-up offense couldn’t muster enough scoring to make it much of a game. The Chiefs are not likely to have the same problems this week. Tennessee is an 11-point underdog, so Willis will probably have to put the ball in the air quite a bit more this week, and he’s likely to use his legs quite a bit more trying to create plays. The Chiefs have allowed every QB they’ve faced this season to throw for multiple TDs and score 15+ fantasy points. None of those prior opponents were as inexperienced as Willis or had worse receiving weapons, so don’t view 15 points as Willis’ floor, but I like his chances to deliver 50+ rushing yards and finish as a serviceable QB2 this week (assuming he starts and Tannehill sits).

RB Keaontay Ingram, ARI (Wk. 9: vs. Sea.): Darrel Williams returned from injury in week 8, and Ingram didn’t play a single offensive snap. That goose egg is probably going to make Ingram an unpopular pick for DFS lineups this week, but Williams was placed on IR on Wednesday. James Conner continues to practice on a limited basis, but that’s where he’s been the last couple weeks and wound up inactive in each game. If Conner misses another game this week, Ingram will work as the RB2 behind Eno Benjamin again. He handled 11 touches in that same role in week 7, and this week he faces a Seattle defense that allows the 7^th-most RB points per game. He’ll likely need to get into the end zone to reach double-digit points, but Ingram costs just $1,200 for Showdown contests on DraftKings.

RB Jaylen Warren, PIT (Wk. 9: Bye): Warren is on a bye this week, but he may be worth scooping up on the waiver wire if he’s still sitting out there in your leagues. Najee Harris continues to look like a shell of the player he was last season, and the public noise has been getting louder that Warren needs to see more opportunities. Maybe the week off helps Najee rest his ailing foot (he’s been dealing with a Lisfranc injury all season), or maybe it allows the Steelers to take a hard look at which running back gives them a better chance to win. Warren has been significantly more efficient than Najee with his opportunities, and the Steelers have a favorable schedule of run defenses late in the season. Each of Pittsburgh’s final 6 opponents of the year are currently either in the bottom-10 at limiting RB fantasy points or in the bottom 10 in run defense DVOA.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you pick up another big win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’re back after a one-week hiatus, and it was an eventful week for the rookies. 3 different rookie receivers topped 100 receiving yards in week 11. George Pickens topped 80, Christian Watson scored 2 more TDs, and Skyy Moore had his best game of the season. On the ground, Isiah Pacheco and James Cook each set season-highs for rushing yards and Kyren Williams saw his first meaningful action of the season. There were some duds in there as well, most notably Dameon Pierce and Garrett Wilson, but overall, it was a great week for the rookies.

Week 12 is an interesting one. It’s the only week from week 6 through week 14 where no NFL team is on a bye. That should change your approach a little bit this week. Guys who were viable starters when there were 4 teams on a bye might not make the cut with all 32 teams in action. Keep that in mind as you consider your lineup decisions for week 12.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Any data on route participation, air yards, and other usage rates are per Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report on Pro Football Focus.

Let’s dive into week 12…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

RB Rachaad White, TB (Wk. 12: @Cle.): Leonard Fournette has been ruled out for Sunday’s game, and that means White should be in line for a monster week. The Bucs have been making a concerted effort to get their run game going in recent weeks (38 rushing attempts against the Seahawks ahead of their bye), and the Browns are the worst run defense in the NFL. They rank dead last in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA and have coughed up the 2^nd-most fantasy points per game to the position. White should operate as the workhorse back this week in that inviting matchup. His skill as a pass-catcher gives him high RB1 upside this week. He’s going be as chalky as it gets for DFS lineups (just $5,100 on DraftKings), and you should be finding a way to get him into your lineups if you have him.

RB Kenneth Walker III, SEA (Wk. 12: vs. LV): Walker struggled to run the ball against a stout Bucs defense in Germany ahead of the team’s bye last week, but he made up for it by pulling in 6 receptions for 55 yards. He’s now scored a dozen or more PPR points in 6 straight games and gets a juicy matchup with a bad Raiders’ defense this week. You weren’t going to sit Walker anyway, but you should feel confident firing him up against a Vegas team that allows the 4^th-most RB points per game.

WR Chris Olave, NO (Wk. 12: @SF): Olave gets a tough matchup this week, and his overall target volume has taken a hit with Jarvis Landry back from injury, but the rookie has still topped 10 PPR points in 9 of 11 games this season, and the Saints are likely going to have to throw more this week as 9-point underdogs. As good as their overall defense has been, San Francisco has allowed the 13^th-most wide receiver points per game. Olave should be a reasonable WR2 as usual this week.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

RB Dameon Pierce, HOU (Wk. 12: @Mia.): The Texans abysmal offense finally caught up with Pierce last week as he finished with just 17 scrimmage yards in easily his worst fantasy performance of the season. The Texans have decided to turn to Kyle Allen at QB this week and bench Davis Mills, but I wouldn’t expect the offense to look substantially different. They still want to run this offense through Dameon Pierce. Look for the rookie to handle at least 15 touches and see a few targets come his way. Kyle Allen has thrown to running backs at a high rate when he’s been a starter in the past, but he was throwing to very good receiving backs (Christian McCaffrey, Antonio Gibson, JD McKissic). The Dolphins have allowed the 12^th-fewest RB points per game this year, but they’ve been far from impenetrable up front. They’ve allowed the opposing lead back to run for 5+ yards per carry in 4 of their last 6 games, and all 4 of those backs found the end zone as well. Pierce is a decent RB2 option this week, even with the question marks about their QB play.

RB Brian Robinson, WAS (Wk. 12: vs. Atl.): Washington is a 4-point favorite this week, and Robinson has averaged 17 carries per game in Commander wins. He’s a non-factor in the passing game, but the Falcons rank 24^th in run defense DVOA and have coughed up 6 rushing scores from inside their 5-yard line in the last 3 games. Robinson is a good bet for 60+ yards and a TD this week in a plus matchup. He’s a dicier option in PPR leagues than non-PPR, but he’s a very solid floor play RB3 this week.

WR Treylon Burks, TEN (Wk. 12: vs. Cin.): The Bengals have been a solid WR defense, allowing the 8^th-fewest wide receiver points per game, but they’ve been more vulnerable since the injury of Chidobe Awuzie early in their week 8 game with the Browns. Two of the best 4 WR performances the Bengals have allowed have come since Awuzie’s injury, and Burks has been the focal point of the Titans’ passing game since returning from IR. The rookie has earned 14 targets in the last two weeks and posted a season-best 111 receiving yards against the Packers last week. The Titans actively look for Burks when he's on the field – he was targeted on 38% of his routes last week - and the Titans may have to throw more than usual to keep pace with the Bengals’ offense this week. Burks is in play as an upside WR3 for all formats in this one.

WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 12: vs. Chi.): The Jets have made the switch from Zach Wilson to Mike White at QB for this week, and it remains up in the air what that means for their pass catchers. In his playing time last season, White heavily targeted the running backs and Elijah Moore, but Garrett Wilson wasn’t on that team and Elijah Moore wasn’t in the doghouse. Wilson’s route participation rate has been near 100% in each of the last 3 games, and he’s the receiver most likely to benefit if White provides a boost to the passing game. The Bears have limited wide receivers this year, allowing the 9^th-fewest wide receiver points per game, but most of that can be attributed to negative game script in the first two months of the season. The Bears weren’t scoring points, and weren’t stopping the run, so teams didn’t have to throw on them. Since Justin Fields started to take off and the Bears started scoring points, it’s been a different story. 4 of the 5 best WR fantasy performances against the Bears this season have come in their past 4 games. Chicago ranks just 30^th in pass defense DVOA. I’m betting on the talent and expecting Wilson to have a bounce-back game where he pushes for a WR2 finish. Keep an eye on the Bears’ injury report here though. If Fields is out, the Jets may not need to throw as much, and you should downgrade Wilson a bit.

WR Drake London, ATL (Wk. 12: @Was.): You’ve got to have some fortitude to start any pass catcher playing in an Arthur Smith offense, but this feels like a good spot to do it. Washington’s defense should have success slowing down the Falcons’ rushing attack and forcing them to throw more than they want to. The Commanders rank 2^nd in run defense DVOA, but just 16^th in pass defense DVOA, and they allow the 10^th-most WR points per game. With Kyle Pitts out, Washington’s defense should pay some extra attention to London, but London should earn a huge target share. He could hit 8+ targets for the first time since week 2. I like London’s chances to post his best yardage day since September. He’s a boom-or-bust WR3 for me this week.

WR George Pickens, PIT (Wk. 12: @Ind.): There’s some risk with Pickens this week facing a Colts defense that allows the fewest WR points per game, but that number feels a bit misleading. The Colts rank just 18^th in pass defense DVOA, and often the issue for opposing receivers is that the Colts often play from behind and opponents lean on the ground game. The Colts have trailed on the scoreboard on more than 50% of their defensive plays and been in the lead for just 31% of them. When teams have thrown to their receivers against them, they’ve had success. Davante Adams and Terry McLaurin each topped 100 yards against them in recent weeks, and Pickens has been at least on par with Diontae Johnson as the Steelers’ WR1 since the Chase Claypool trade. The Colts are favored by 2.5 points in this game, and the Steelers rank 6^th in the NFL in pass rate when the game is close. Pickens should be a safe bet for 6+ targets, and that makes him an upside WR3/4 for me.

TE Greg Dulcich, DEN (Wk. 12: @Car.): Dulcich hasn’t finished among the top-12 tight ends in either of the last two weeks, but I like his chances to get back there in Carolina this week. Dulcich continues to run a route on more than 80% of the Broncos’ dropbacks each week, and Denver will be without receiver Jerry Jeudy. The Panthers rank just 21^st in pass defense DVOA, and 10 PPR points has pretty much meant a sure-fire top-12 TE finish. I like Dulcich’s chances to get there in what should be an ugly game.

TE Trey McBride, ARI (Wk. 12: vs. LAC): McBride hasn’t had a memorable rookie season so far, totaling 8 catches for 45 yards on the season, but he has a great chance to tally more yards this week than he did through the first 11 weeks combined. The Cardinals will be without Rondale Moore, Zach Ertz, and possibly Greg Dortch while getting Kyler Murray back. The Chargers allow the 3^rd-most TE receiving yards per game, and the Cardinals will need someone beyond DeAndre Hopkins and Marquise Brown to step up. McBride has a great chance to be that guy. As I mentioned with Dulcich above, tight end has been a wasteland for fantasy production in recent weeks. If you’re looking for a fill-in, you could do worse than McBride this week. View it as a slight downgrade for him if Greg Dortch is able to play.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

RB Isiah Pacheco, KC (Wk. 12: vs. LAR): Pacheco has been on a tear in the last two weeks, piling up 189 yards on 31 carries against the Jaguars and Chargers, but that’s good enough to be just the PPR RB35 in points per game over that span. Pacheco doesn’t catch passes, and the Chiefs don’t give him the ball at the goal line, usually opting to throw instead when they get in close. The injury to CEH takes away a threat to those goal-line carries for Pacheco, but that doesn’t guarantee he’ll get any carries in close this week. The Rams’ defense has been much better against rushers than the Jaguars or Chargers. They’ve allowed the 8^th-fewest RB points per game, and rank 5^th in run defense DVOA. Pacheco is unlikely to finish as a top-30 RB this week without finding his way into the end zone for the first time since week 1. The Rams have given up just 5 running back rushing scores all year. If you think Pacheco adds to that number this week, start him. If you don’t, you should probably sit him.

RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL (Wk. 12: @Was.): Allgeier has been useful as a fill-in during bye weeks, but he’s carried the ball fewer than 10 times in back-to-back games with Cordarrelle Patterson back at full strength. The Commanders rank 2^nd in run defense DVOA, and all 32 teams are in action this week, so Allgeier is unlikely to post a useful game Sunday for fantasy purposes on a limited workload. He’s a low ceiling RB4 this week.

WR Christian Watson, GB (Wk. 12: @Phi.): Watson has been on fire in the last two weeks with FIVE touchdowns against the Cowboys & Titans, but I’m not sure I’d go back to that well again this week. The Eagles boast a great secondary that has allowed the 10^th-fewest WR points per game, and they’ve allowed a total of just 1 wide receiver touchdown in their last 5 games. They also don’t often get beat by the deep ball – Philly has allowed just 5 completions of 30+ yards for the season. Watson has still only hit 50 receiving yards once this season, and if the Eagles keep him out of the end zone, you’re probably not going to be happy with his output this week.

WR Jahan Dotson, WAS (Wk. 12: vs. Atl.): Dotson has returned from injury to a different offense than the one he left. Taylor Heinicke only has eyes for Terry McLaurin in the passing game. Scary Terry has a 31.6% target share with Heinicke under center, and it’s going to take time for Dotson to carve out a role again. The matchup this week is great – Atlanta allows the 2^nd-most WR points per game – but Dotson has been targeted just 3 times in his first two games back. His playing time increased in his 2^nd game back, and should increase again this week, but I’d look at other options in season-long leagues. He does make for an interesting DFS option this week in the great matchup, with a price tag of just $4,000 on DraftKings.

TE Cade Otton, TB (Wk. 12: @Cle.): The return of Cam Brate did prove to be a problem for Cade Otton in week 10. Otton was in a route on right around 90% of the team dropbacks in weeks 8 & 9 without Brate, and that dropped all the way to 29% in week 10 with Brate back. He still managed to post a 3-35 line on 3 targets in that game, but that was against the worst tight end defense in the NFL. The Browns allow the 5^th-fewest tight end points per game. Otton is not a top-15 option at the position this week.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

QB Kenny Pickett, PIT (Wk. 12: @Ind.): With all 32 teams in action this week, Pickett is just a mid-to-low end QB2 against the Colts. Indy has been just a middling QB defense, allowing the 18^th-most points per game to the position, but Pickett has finished higher than the QB16 just once all year. He is coming off his two best fantasy games of the year, but it’ll likely take rushing production for Pickett to hit any kind of ceiling. The Colts have not allowed any QB this year to throw for 3 TDs or 300 yards in a game, and they’ve held 5 of the last 8 QBs they’ve faced below 200 passing yards. Pickett does have rushing upside – he’s averaged 30.5 rushing yards per game in his past 4 starts – but that upside is just enough to mean you could play him as a QB2 if you need to.

RB Raheem Blackshear, CAR (Wk. 12: vs. Den.): With Chuba Hubbard back on the field, Blackshear has played fewer than 20% of the offensive snaps in each of the past two weeks. That’s not enough work to rely on him when he faces a Denver defense that allows the 11^th-fewest RB points per game.

RB Trestan Ebner, CHI (Wk. 12: @NYJ): Even with Khalil Herbert sidelined, Ebner was on the field for just 15 snaps and handled 6 offensive touches. David Montgomery is the workhorse here, and 6-8 touches against a Jets’ defense that ranks 8^th in run defense DVOA isn’t going to cut it if you’re looking for a fill-in starter. Ebner has never averaged as much as 3.5 yards per carry in an NFL game.

RB Jaylen Warren, PIT (Wk. 12: @Ind.): In case you missed the news on Saturday, Warren has been ruled out for Monday’s game with the Colts.

WR Skyy Moore, KC (Wk. 12: vs. LAR): A plethora of injuries to Kansas City’s WR group earned Moore more playing time last week, and he posted his best performance of the season with 5 catches for 63 yards on a 46% route participation rate. It’s troubling that even with JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman sidelined, and Kadarius Toney out early with a hamstring injury, that Moore still played behind Justin Watson, who posted a 98% route participation rate. JuJu has cleared the concussion protocols and will return this week, so I’d view last week’s output and playing time as the ceiling for Moore in this one. The Rams have been awful against wide receivers this year, allowing the 4^th-most points per game to the position, but Moore’s upside remains limited as he’s just not getting enough playing time. He’s a WR5 for me this week.

TE Chig Okonkwo, TEN (Wk. 12: vs. Cin.): Okonkwo has pulled in a 30+ yard catch in each of the last 3 games, but in each game, it’s been his only catch. The Titans just don’t throw enough to trust their TE2 to put up meaningful fantasy production. If you play him, you’re just hoping for another long catch, and hoping that it’s a touchdown this time.

TE Isaiah Likely, BAL (Wk. 12: @Jax.): Likely saw just one target and played only 32% of the offensive snaps last Sunday with Mark Andrews back from injury. It’ll likely take another Andrews injury to make Isaiah Likely viable for fantasy lineups again.

TE Jelani Woods, IND (Wk. 12: vs. Pit.): Whether the guy under center is Matt Ryan or Sam Ehlinger, Jelani Woods remains no more than a TD dart throw. He hasn’t pulled in more than 2 catches in any game this season. The Steelers have allowed just two TE scores all year, and Woods is one of three tight ends who could score one for the Colts, so divide those slim chances of a TD by 3 for Woods.

TE Cole Turner, WAS (Wk. 12: @Atl.): Turner returned from injury last week but saw just one target come his way with Logan Thomas and John Bates both active. Atlanta allows the 10^th-most TE points per game, but Turner won’t be the beneficiary this week.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Bryce Perkins, LAR (Wk. 12: @KC): Perkins isn’t technically a rookie, but his first NFL snaps came this year, and he’s in line to start this week with Matthew Stafford and John Wolford both injured. Wolford will be active, but Perkins will get the starting nod. He boasts serious rushing upside that could push him into the mid-QB2 range even if he isn’t effective as a passer. Perkins ran for nearly 1,700 yards and 20 TDs in his last 2 college seasons, and he had 5 designed rushing attempts in just 26 snaps last week spelling Wolford. If your QB2 has been derailed by the benchings of Zach Wilson, Davis Mills, and Baker Mayfield, you could do worse than Perkins as a replacement this week. The Chiefs have allowed 25+ rushing yards to 3 of the last 5 QBs they’ve faced and have allowed the 7^th-most QB points per game.

RB Kyren Williams, LAR (Wk. 12: @KC): The Rams unexpectedly waived Darrell Henderson this week, leaving their backfield to Cam Akers and Kyren Williams. Akers will serve as the lead back on early downs, but Kyren should be the guy on passing downs. Kyren handled just 26% of the team rushing attempts last week, but he handled 100% of the 2-minute snaps and was in a route on 65% of the Rams’ passing dropbacks. The Rams need pass catchers with Cooper Kupp still sidelined and Allen Robinson at less than full strength, and the Chiefs allow the 2^nd-most running back receptions and receiving yards per game. There’s a ton of risk here with LA starting Bryce Perkins at QB. The Rams haven’t thrown to their backs a lot this season, and Perkins is more likely to use his own legs as the check-down option than Matt Stafford would be. If you’re desperate for RB help in a PPR league, Williams could provide some unexpected upside this week, and will have more value when/if Matt Stafford returns. He’s worth a shot as a cheap DFS lineup option this week as well.

RB Isaiah Spiller, LAC (Wk. 12: @Ari.): Spiller’s stats haven’t been overwhelming in recent weeks, but his playing time is steadily increasing. He has now taken over most of the backup RB role behind Austin Ekeler in this offense, playing 16 snaps and handling 6 touches last weekend to Sony Michel’s 5 snaps and 1 touch. Arizona represents another opportunity for Spiller’s playing time to increase. The Cardinals rank just 23^rd in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 13^th-most RB points per game. The Cardinals have been watching their season slip away in recent weeks and have given up 30+ team points in 4 of their last 5 games. I like Spiller’s chances at 8-10 touches in a game where the Chargers should have a positive game script, and I wouldn’t rule out his first career TD. Spiller is a guy I like in limited slate DFS lineups this week.

RB Keaontay Ingram, ARI (Wk. 12: vs. LAC): The Cards will get Kyler Murray back this week, but they will be without Rondale Moore, Zach Ertz, and possibly Greg Dortch. Marquise Brown will be playing his first game in more than a month after a stint on IR, and Arizona is facing one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. It would make sense to lean on the ground game more than usual. Ingram is the clear RB2 behind Conner with Darrel Williams still on IR. Even if Arizona runs their normal offensive approach, Keaontay should see a handful of touches, but if they do lean more heavily on the ground game, 10+ touches isn’t out the question. The Chargers rank 30^th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 3^rd-most RB points per game. Ingram is more of a DFS play than a season-long one. He costs just $2,200 on DraftKings for showdown contests, and he could substantially outperform that price tag.

WR Alec Pierce, IND (Wk. 12: vs. Pit.): Pierce finally started seeing some targets come his way again last week, and he played more snaps and ran more routes than Parris Campbell for the first time all year. He didn’t exactly make the most of his opportunities, with just 3 catches for 28 yards on 8 targets, but he gets a much better matchup this week and he showed a great rapport with Matt Ryan earlier in the season. The Steelers have allowed the most WR points per game, so Pierce is in play as a WR4 option this week despite scoring just 9.1 total PPR points in the last 3 games. He costs just $3,500 on DraftKings this week.

WR David Bell, CLE (Wk. 12: vs. TB): Bell isn’t an option for week 12, but Deshaun Watson is eligible to return next week, so Bell is worth a speculative add in deeper leagues in case Watson’s return sparks a late-season surge from the rookie. We’ve already seen signs of an increasing role, as Bell has been above a 50% route participation rate in each of the last 3 games, and he’s earned 5 targets in each of the last two. If this passing game does get a boost from Watson’s return, Bell is likely to be a viable fantasy option down the stretch.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you pick up another big win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve made it down to the final two weeks of the fantasy regular season, and hopefully, you’re still alive and kicking for a playoff spot. We get back into byes this week, so you again may have some work to do to field your best lineup. It’s been an interesting couple of weeks for the rookies.

While the top running backs (Dameon Pierce and Kenneth Walker) have been going through some struggles in recent weeks, it’s been a breakout season for the rookie wide receivers. Christian Watson has scored 6 TDs in the last 3 weeks, Treylon Burks has reached 17 PPR points in back-to-back weeks, Garrett Wilson got back on track as the overall WR2 in week 12 with Mike White at QB, Chris Olave has kept his season humming along, and David Bell and Skyy Moore have seen season-highs in usage in recent weeks as well. November has been a good month to get rookie receivers in your lineups. Will these trends continue into December? That’s what I’m here to talk about.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Any data on route participation, air yards, and other usage rates are per Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report on Pro Football Focus.

Let’s get into week 13…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

RB Kenneth Walker III, SEA (Wk. 13: @LAR): Walker has been abysmal as a rusher in his last two games, totaling just 43 yards on 24 carries, but it hasn’t killed his fantasy value. He finished as the PPR RB18 and RB14 in those two games as he made up for those inefficient carries with a bunch of receiving work in week 10 and two touchdowns in week 12. It could be more of the same this week. The Rams rank 5^th in run defense DVOA, so Walker could have struggles on the ground once again, but with 9 TDs in the last 7 games, Walker’s ceiling is too high to sit him. The Seahawks should have a positive game script as 5.5-point favorites, and Walker has scored 41% of the Seahawks' offensive TDs over those last 7 games. Keep plugging him in as a solid RB2.

WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 13: @Min.): Wilson’s fantasy value has come back to life with Zach Wilson riding the pine and Mike White in at QB. He did have some success with Wilson starting, posting 2 games of 17+ PPR points with Zach at QB, but he failed to score 7 PPR points in any of the other 5 games with Zach under center. Garrett’s earned at least 8 targets and caught for 50+ yards in all 4 games that Zach Wilson didn’t start, including two separate 2-TD games. Wilson is the focal point of the passing game no matter who is at QB, and if White doesn’t turn back into a pumpkin this week, the rookie receiver should be a WR2 against a Minnesota defense that allows the 5^th-most WR points per game.

WR Chris Olave, NO (Wk. 13: @TB): Olave continues to be as steady as they come after posting his 9^th double-digit PPR performance in his last 10 games. Last week was a floor performance for Olave, and he finished as the PPR WR38. We haven’t seen the outlandish target totals for Olave lately that we did earlier this season, but he’s still had 44% or more of the team air yards in 3 of the last 4 weeks. The return of Jarvis Landry really hasn’t dented his usage. Olave remains the Saints' WR1, and although the Bucs are in the top half of the league in limiting WR points, they’ve had their issues with WR1s. In their last 3 games, they allowed lines of 8-127-1 to Cooper Kupp, 6-71 to DK Metcalf, and 7-94 to Amari Cooper. Olave himself went for 5-80 in the first meeting with Tampa. Something in that range should be a reasonable expectation here for Olave as well.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

RB Dameon Pierce, HOU (Wk. 13: vs. Cle.): It’s been ugly for Pierce in his last two games. He’s been limited to 33 scrimmage yards on 21 touches in games where the Texans were routed by the Commanders and Dolphins. Last Sunday was especially rough to watch for fantasy managers with Pierce on their rosters. Pierce split his usual role with Dare Ogunbowale in the second half after the team fell behind. Ogunbowale scored a 3-yard TD in the 3^rd quarter that could’ve bailed out a lot of folks who started Pierce. The scoreboard outlook for Houston isn’t much better this week – they’re 7-point underdogs against the Cleveland Browns – but it’s a much better matchup for Pierce to have rushing success. Cleveland ranks 31^st in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA and has allowed the 2^nd-most RB points per game. The Browns have allowed 5 different running backs to run for 60+ yards in their last 3 games, all of whom averaged at least 4 yards per carry. I also expect the Browns’ offense to have some struggles early as Deshaun Watson shakes off the rust of not playing for 2 years. If that happens, the Texans may stay in the game a little longer and be able to run it more than they have in recent weeks. This is a good spot for a bounce-back for Pierce, though I understand if you don’t want to take that risk after seeing the floor in the last two weeks.

RB Jaylen Warren, PIT (Wk. 13: @Atl.): Warren sat out on Monday night with a hamstring injury, but he’s practicing in full ahead of this week’s game in Atlanta and may return to a new starting role after Najee Harris suffered an injury of his own that could keep him out in week 13. If Harris sits, Warren will operate as the lead back against an Atlanta defense that has allowed the 9^th-most RB points per game. Atlanta has allowed 110+ scrimmage yards to the opposing lead back in 4 of their last 5 games. It remains to be seen if Warren will dominate touches to the same degree that Najee Harris typically does, or if Benny Snell or Anthony McFarland will mix in a bit more. Even if Warren shares more of the load, I’d view him as a low-end RB2 this week if Harris sits.

RB Brian Robinson, WAS (Wk. 13: @NYG): Robinson posted his best game of the season last week against a bad Atlanta defense, piling up 125 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. I think he’s got a great chance at back-to-back strong games. The Giants rank 27^th in run defense DVOA and have given up over 140 rushing yards to the opposing backs in each of the last two games (vs. Detroit and Dallas). The game script should allow the Commanders to be able to run the ball (they’re 1.5-point favorites), and that means Robinson should find his way to 15+ carries against a bad run defense. He’s a solid RB2/3 option this week.

RB Isiah Pacheco, KC (Wk. 13: @Cin.): After I talked last week about how rarely the Chiefs hand off the ball when they get close to the goal line, they seemingly went out of their way to give Pacheco goal line opportunities last Sunday. Pacheco totaled 12 carries in the red zone, and 5 from the 5-yard line or closer…but all of them were in the 2^nd half. The game wasn’t exactly out of reach, but a 10-point lead against the Bryce Perkins-led Rams probably felt pretty safe as the team got Pacheco involved in the scoring area. Pacheco didn’t make the most of those opportunities, but he did manage to put one of them into the end zone. He totaled just 19 rushing yards on those 12 red zone totes, and again, only one of those runs had the distance limited by Pacheco reaching the end zone. On the plus side, Pacheco did handle 85% of the team's rushing attempts and earned a target as well. It was his third straight game with 80+ scrimmage yards, and you know the Chiefs will have red zone opportunities. I’d view Pacheco as a low-floor, moderate-ceiling RB2 this week.

WR Christian Watson, GB (Wk. 13: @Chi.): After scoring 6 touchdowns in the last 3 games, what can Christian Watson do for an encore? He should get Aaron Rodgers back under center this week, has reached at least a 30% share of the team air yards in each of the last 3 weeks, and faces a Chicago defense that ranks 31^st in pass defense DVOA on Sunday. There’s still a bit of a boom-or-bust element with Watson, especially if Romeo Doubs returns this week, but I think Watson has earned continued opportunities and looks like an upside WR3 to me for this one. Even if Doubs returns, I’d expect the Packers to ease him in with the bye looming in week 14.

WR Treylon Burks, TEN (Wk. 13: @Phi.): Burks has been on a tear in the last two weeks, but he could come back down to earth a bit this week against a good Philly secondary. Even after struggling to contain Christian Watson and Randall Cobb last week, the Eagles have allowed just the 9^th-fewest WR points per game. Watson’s and Cobb’s TDs were just the 2^nd and 3^rd WR scores the Eagles have surrendered in their last 6 games. The thing that stands out about last week’s game is that starting Philly safety CJ Gardner-Johnson left the game with a lacerated kidney that will keep him out this week as well. He played just 11 snaps and was off the field for all 3 of the Packers’ passing TDs, including a 63-yard TD to Christian Watson. That Watson TD included a long run after the catch where Gardner-Johnson’s replacement, Reed Blankenship, took a bad angle in pursuit and missed the tackle. Burks has similar run-after-catch skills, and he’s seen a 37% air yardage share in each of the last two games as the team has made a bigger effort to push the ball down the field. The last two games included two of Ryan Tannehill’s 3 highest air yardage totals of the season. If the Titans continue the increased efforts to throw downfield, Burks could be in for yet another nice day against a defense missing a key piece. He’s a WR3 with an upside for more. Keep an eye on the injury report here. Burks missed practice Thursday with an illness.

WR George Pickens, PIT (Wk. 13: @Atl.): The Steelers’ overall passing game hasn’t been anything to write home about with Kenny Pickett at QB, but Pickens has been the best weekly option among his pass catchers. While Pat Freiermuth and Diontae Johnson compete for the short targets, Pickens is the downfield weapon earning the higher value targets. In the last two weeks, Pickens has just one fewer target than Diontae Johnson and more than TRIPLE the air yards of his veteran teammate. For the season, only the Detroit Lions have allowed more completed air yards than the Falcons, and Atlanta has the lowest pressure rate in the league, generating pressure on just 11% of dropbacks by opposing QBs. Pickett will have time to find Pickens downfield, and that should mean good things for Pickens’ fantasy outlook. I don’t know that George has quite the same ceiling this week as Watson or Treylon Burks, given the low passing yardage we typically see from Pickett, but he probably has a safer floor than either of those two other rookie receivers.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB Kenny Pickett, PIT (Wk. 13 @Atl.): Pickett is only on the borderline in 2-QB and Superflex formats. The matchup with Atlanta looks enticing on paper. The Falcons have allowed the 10^th-most QB points per game and rank 29^th in pass defense DVOA, but they’ve limited 3 of the last 4 QBs they’ve faced to fewer than 15 fantasy points, and the one guy who topped 15, Justin Fields, put up more than half of his production with his legs. Pickett has been a low-ceiling fantasy option as a rookie. He hasn’t had more than 1 total TD in any of the 7 games he’s started, and he’s thrown for fewer than 200 yards in 4 out of 7. Atlanta isn’t a good defense, but Pickett remains just a low-end QB2.

RB Rachaad White, TB (Wk. 13: vs. NO): White has handled 45 touches in the last two weeks with Leonard Fournette dealing with a hip injury, but it appeared that White may have leap-frogged Lenny on the depth chart even before the injury. Rachaad was in the game on the opening drive in week 11, and at worst was splitting the workload with Fournette in that game prior to the veteran getting hurt. The Saints are a tough matchup for running backs, allowing the 8^th-fewest running back points per game, but if Fournette sits, White’s passing game ability means you shouldn’t be sitting him in PPR leagues with a full workload. If Fournette plays, things get a little messier. White becomes a dicier RB3 option in that case. The biggest concern here is that the Bucs don’t play until Monday night. We might not have clarity on Fournette’s availability until after all your fallback options for White have already played. If starting Rachaad is a consideration, keep a close eye on the reports on Fournette. He’s practicing this week, so I’d operate under the assumption that he suits up, and if you have other solid options you could start over White on Sunday, I’d roll with those other options. White probably sees 12-15 touches if Fournette plays. For the season, White ranks 39^th in yards per touch out of 50 qualified running backs.

RB Kyren Williams, LAR (Wk. 13: vs. Sea.): Kyren functioned as the lead back in week 12, handling 71% of the Rams’ backfield snaps, but this is an offense that will likely struggle to score points with Bryce Perkins at QB, and they don’t throw enough for Kyren to be a PPR maven, which is the role his skill set is best suited for. Williams saw 3 targets last week, and it was enough for a 14% target share. The Seahawks are a great matchup for running backs, allowing the 3^rd-most fantasy points per game to the position, but I don’t think Kyren is going to be able to really take advantage this week. You could plug him in as an RB3 in a PPR league if you really need help, but you should be smiling if he manages to give you 10+ points.

RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL (Wk. 13: vs. Pit.): You know what to expect from Allgeier each week – around 8-10 carries and maybe a target or two. He’s worth a look as a flex play in plus matchups, especially in non-PPR formats, but this isn’t exactly a plus matchup. The Steelers rank 8^th in run defense DVOA, and Allgeier is unlikely to post big numbers on his part-time workload.

WR Drake London, ATL (Wk. 13: vs. Pit.): The matchup this week is as good as it gets for London. The Steelers allow the most WR points per game, but it’ll take a strong stomach to try your luck here. London still hasn’t reached 50 yards in a game since week 3, and he just finished with 2-29 last week in a good matchup against the Commanders as teammate Olamide Zaccheaus caught for 91 yards. There’s an upside for London if the ball actually comes his way, but after scoring fewer than 8 PPR points in 8 of his last 9 games, there seems to be more downside than upside here.

WR Jahan Dotson, WAS (Wk. 13: @NYG): Dotson has now been back on the field for 3 weeks since his stint on IR. They’re the only 3 games he’s played with Taylor Heinicke under center. Dotson has totaled 4 targets, 2 receptions, and 27 yards in those 3 games. You can’t get Dotson into lineups until we see the ball start going his way more often or one of the two receivers ahead of him (Terry McLaurin or Curtis Samuel) gets hurt.

TE Greg Dulcich, DEN (Wk. 13: @Bal.): Dulcich continues to post 80%+ route participation rates each week, but the play of Russell Wilson has deteriorated to the point where it’s hard to rely on any of his pass catchers outside of Courtland Sutton in lineups. Dulcich has totaled just 7 catches for 52 yards in the last 3 weeks. He did have a TD wiped away by a penalty last weekend, but that’s hardly comforting if he was in your lineup. His opponent this week, the Ravens, are a middling TE defense. They’ve allowed the 14^th-fewest TE points per game. The tight end position is a wasteland right now, so you could do worse than a guy who is playing a full-time role on a team that is usually in negative game scripts if you need a fill-in. A stat line like 4-40 could be enough for a top-12 TE finish in any given week. Dulcich is in play as a fringe TE1 this week, but I’d prefer waiver wire options like Tyler Conklin or Hayden Hurst if available.

TE Jelani Woods, IND (Wk. 13: @Dal.): What a performance Jelani Woods put on in front of a national audience on Monday Night Football. The rookie came into week 12 with just 7 catches and 79 yards for the season while playing in a 3-way committee with Kylen Granson and Mo-Alie Cox, but he put up a ridiculous 8-for-98 stat line with Granson out due to illness against the Steelers. Woods tallied about half of the Colts' total receiving yards for the game. Will that workload continue this week if Granson is able to return? Probably not. Woods is certainly worth adding if you need tight-end help and have a roster spot, but you’d probably be best served to wait a week to see if the usage holds with Granson back before plugging him into lineups. The Colts face Dallas this week, and the Cowboys rank 1^st in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 3^rd-fewest TE points per game. Only 4 tight ends all year have reached 35 receiving yards against the Cowboys, and only 1 has found the end zone. It’s also worth noting that Woods is not practicing as of Thursday due to injury, and his status for Sunday remains up in the air.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

QB Bryce Perkins, LAR (Wk. 13: vs. Sea.): I thought Perkins had a great chance at 50+ rushing yards last week against Kansas City. He finished with 44, but he was even worse as a passer than I expected. He finished as the QB30 for the week with just 100 passing yards in a matchup that was more favorable than the one he faces this week. He’s a fringe QB2 at best this week unless he has a blow-up rushing game. Kyler Murray is the only QB to run for 25+ yards against the Seahawks this season. Murray has accounted for 71% of all of the QB rushing yards the Seahawks have allowed this year (in 2 games).

RB James Cook, BUF (Wk. 13: @NE): Cook appeared to be on the verge of a breakout in week 11 when he totaled 86 yards on 11 touches against the Browns, but he was back to being an afterthought in the offense on Thanksgiving. Cook saw a few more targets in the passing game but was on the field for just 14 offensive snaps and carried the ball only twice. Two carries and a handful of targets are not going to make Cook a viable fantasy option, especially this week against a New England defense that allows the 2^nd-fewest RB points per game.

RB Isaiah Spiller, LAC (Wk. 13: @LV): With Joshua Kelley back from IR, Spiller was back to the RB3 in this backfield. He’s not going to be useful even in a good matchup with the Raiders this week.

RB Snoop Conner, JAX (Wk. 13: @Det.): Don’t let the injury to Travis Etienne make you consider Conner this week. He’s not an option. Etienne should be good to go, and both JaMycal Hasty and Darrell Henderson would play ahead of Conner.

WR David Bell, CLE (Wk. 13: @Hou.): I’ve touted Bell as having upside when Deshaun Watson returns, and Watson returns this week, but I’d wait a week before even considering Bell for lineups. Bell has been very involved in recent weeks, with at least 5 targets in 3 straight games and a 60%+ snap share in each of the last two, but it may take a week for Watson to shake off the cobwebs after not starting a game in nearly two years. The Browns also aren’t likely to have to throw much against an abysmal Texans defense. Bell isn’t an option unless you’re desperate for someone who could put up 5-6 PPR points.

WR Alec Pierce, IND (Wk. 13: @Dal.): Pierce has played at least 65% of the offensive snaps in the last 4 games, but he’s totaled just 9.1 PPR points in that span. It wouldn’t shock anyone if he put up a double-digit performance in any given week, but a goose egg is just as likely, especially against a Dallas defense that ranks 1^st in pass defense DVOA.

WR Tyquan Thornton, NE (Wk. 13: vs. Buf.): Thornton has played fewer than 40% of the snaps in each of the past two weeks and totaled just 2 targets in those contests. The Patriots will need to throw to keep pace with Buffalo’s high-powered offense, but you can’t count on much of that passing going to Thornton.

TE Daniel Bellinger, NYG (Wk. 13: vs. Was.): It sounds like Bellinger will be able to return from his fractured eye socket this week (Coach Brian Daboll is optimistic that he’ll play), but after a month off I would be surprised if he immediately returns to a full workload. Anyone with a pulse is an option at tight end, but I’d recommend caution as Bellinger faces a Washington defense that allows the 2^nd-fewest TE points per game.

TE Cade Otton, TB (Wk. 13: vs. NO): Otton’s run as a feasible tight end option is officially over after he recorded zero targets last weekend. He’ll still play about half the snaps, splitting the job with Cam Brate, but he isn’t a starting TE option unless you know Brate isn’t going to play. Brate will play this week, and the Saints allow the fewest TE points per game.

TEs Peyton Hendershot & Jake Ferguson, DAL (Wk. 13: vs. Ind.): Both Ferguson and Hendershot had solid days on Thanksgiving, with Ferguson posting a 3-57 line and Hendershot getting into the end zone on a goal line rushing attempt, but neither guy is getting more than a couple of opportunities each week with Schultz back. There’s not enough volume here to rely on either player.

TE Isaiah Likely, BAL (Wk. 13: vs. Den.): Likely missed last week with an injury, and he’s questionable for week 13, but he’s topped 4 targets and 30 receiving yards just once in any game with a fully healthy Mark Andrews. There’s no reason to start Likely this week even if he suits up.

Rookies on byes in week 13: RB Raheem Blackshear, CAR, RB Keaontay Ingram, ARI, TE Trey McBride, ARI

Rookies who may as well be on byes in week 13: RB Trestan Ebner, CHI, WR Khalil Shakir, BUF, WR Jalen Tolbert, DAL, WR Velus Jones Jr., CHI, TE Cole Turner, WAS

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, & Cheap DFS Options:

RB Zonovan Knight, NYJ (Wk. 13: @Min.): Knight was unquestionably the surprise of the week in week 12. The Jets’ backfield pecking order seemed to be pretty well established in recent weeks after they traded for James Robinson to pair with Michael Carter, but Robinson was a shocking healthy scratch last week, and it was Knight who stepped in to take his place. The rookie finished the week as the RB23 with 103 scrimmage yards after Carter left the game with an injury. Carter may be able to return this weekend, but he’s not practicing yet as of Thursday and it’s worth noting that Knight played on 31% of the offensive snaps BEFORE Carter got hurt, and he certainly made the most of his opportunities and has likely earned more of them. If Carter does miss this week, Knight should own the early down work against a Minnesota defense that allows the 12^th-most RB points per game. They’ve allowed 4 different backs to top 15 fantasy points against them in the last 3 weeks, and I wouldn’t be shocked if Knight makes it 5 backs in 4 weeks. He’s an upside RB3 if Carter is out this week, and he’s worth a roster spot even if Carter plays.

RB Zamir White, LV (Wk. 13: vs. LAC): I know it probably seems counterintuitive to list White as a sleeper when he played just 3 offensive snaps last Sunday, and the starter ahead of him put up over 300 scrimmage yards in that game, but Josh Jacobs’ status is up in the air for this week. If he misses this game, White is in line for the early down work against a defense that allows the 4^th-most RB points per game and ranks 29^th in run defense DVOA. Jacobs did have an injury designation for the same calf injury last week before having a career day, so it’s very possible he plays, but if he sits, Zamir is an RB3 with upside this week. The Chargers have given up 85+ rushing yards to a back in each of the past 4 weeks.

RBs Jordan Mason & Tyrion Davis-Price, SF (Wk. 13: vs. Mia.): It seemed like Mason and TDP were likely banished from fantasy football consideration for the rest of the season after the 49ers traded for Christian McCaffrey and got Elijah Mitchell back from IR, but just a few weeks later Mitchell is out for the rest of the regular season and CMC is battling a knee injury. McCaffrey will likely still play, but Mitchell and Mason combined for 14 carries per game over the last 3 weeks behind him. We’ve seen this scenario play out once before, where Mason appeared to be the next man up, but it was Davis-Price who stepped into the more prominent role instead. Mason had been active ahead of him for special teams purposes. It’s possible we see the same thing play out here. Both players are worth a stash, but I would prioritize TDP if both are available. The RB2 behind McCaffrey should be in line for around 12 touches per game or so. Both are in play as a desperation option this week, but neither is a particularly good start against a Miami defense that ranks 12^th in run defense DVOA. They’re more interesting in DFS contests, especially the showdown format, where Mason costs just $2,000 and Davis-Price an even more enticing $200 on DraftKings.

WR Skyy Moore, KC (Wk. 13: @Cin.): Moore might finally be sneaking into the range where you can consider him in fantasy lineups in the deepest of leagues. He’s still been under a 50% route participation rate in every game this season, but Mahomes has been actively looking for him in the last two weeks with Hardman and Toney sidelined. Moore has been targeted on just shy of 40% of his total routes run in the last two weeks, and this week’s game with the Bengals figures to be a shootout. The Bengals’ pass defense hasn’t been the same since losing Chidobe Awuzie for the season. He was hurt early on against the Browns in week 8. Three of the four highest passing yardage totals the Bengals have allowed have happened from week 8 on, and they’ve come from QBs who haven’t thrown for a ton of yards this year – Jacoby Brissett, Kenny Pickett, and Ryan Tannehill. Each QB put up their 2^nd-highest passing yardage game of the season against the Awuzie-less Bengals. Imagine what an elite QB like Patrick Mahomes can do this week. I like Moore’s chances of getting to something like 5-50 and a possible score. He’d be a good target for DFS lineups and could be a solid WR4 in deeper leagues this week. Also, pay up for Mahomes in DFS this week.

WR Jameson Williams, DET (Wk. 13: vs. Jax.): It doesn’t appear that Williams is going to make his debut in week 13, but it’s not impossible. He got in his first full practice of the season on Wednesday. The Jaguars are terrible against the pass (30^th in pass defense DVOA), so there’s some intrigue in Williams as a DFS tournament play, but I’d wait until we see him in game action to plug him into season-long lineups. The main reason I mention Williams here is because he’s still available in entirely too many leagues. He’s only 52% rostered on Sleeper and 21.5% rostered on ESPN. If he’s available in your league, he shouldn’t be.

TE Chig Okonkwo, TEN (Wk. 13: @Phi.): Okonkwo is just a DFS dart throw for this week, but one who could have a sneaky upside. He’s seen his playing time hover around 35-40% of the snaps in recent weeks, but he gets the ball thrown his way when he’s on the field. He’s been targeted on 33% of his routes run for the year, and the Eagles may be a little more vulnerable in the middle of the field with CJ Gardner-Johnson out of action. Okonkwo saw 5 targets last week and has tallied a 30+ yard catch in 3 of the last 4 games. Don’t be surprised if he gets loose for a long catch in this one.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you pick up another big win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve arrived at the final week in the regular season for most fantasy leagues. All your hard work this season may boil down to one game. Maybe you’re still fighting for a playoff spot, or if you’re lucky, fighting for a playoff bye. If you still need a win this week, the NFL schedulers haven’t made it easy on you. There are 6 NFL teams on a bye in week 14, so you may have to get by without a weekly starter like Justin Fields, Aaron Jones, Jonathan Taylor, Terry McLaurin, or Alvin Kamara to get that win. You may be digging deeper than you want to for replacements, and there may be some less heralded rookies who can help…or maybe not.

It's a tough week for the rookies too with those byes. Several rookies who have been viable weekly options are on byes this week – guys like Chris Olave, Christian Watson and Brian Robinson Jr – and a couple others (Treylon Burks & Kenneth Walker III) are in danger of missing the week with injury. Dameon Pierce’s struggles continued to a degree last week, and George Pickens had his worst game of the season, but it’s not all ugly for the rookies. Garrett Wilson, Zonovan Knight, Isiah Pacheco and Cade Otton continued their breakouts, and there could be more good things to come for those players going forward. I’m here once again to take a look at every relevant rookie for week 14, and help you navigate what to do with them in your lineups to put you in the best position to come away with another W.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Any data on route participation, air yards, and other usage rates are per Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report on Pro Football Focus.

Let’s get into week 14…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

RB Kenneth Walker III, SEA (Wk. 14: vs. Car.): Walker is listed as questionable for this week. He’s not practicing as of Wednesday, but if he’s able to play he should be in your lineup. The Panthers aren’t a defense to be afraid of, allowing the 9^th-most RB points per game and ranking 22^nd in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA. It took an injury to prevent Walker from tallying his 8^th straight game with 12+ PPR points, and I expect him to get back on track this weekend if he’s able to suit up. He’s a safe RB2 if healthy.

WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 14: @Buf.): The QB change in New York has been just what the doctor ordered to get Wilson’s season going again. In two games with Mike White under center, Wilson has put up at least a 27% target share, 35% air yardage share, and 24 PPR points in each game. Wilson managed to put up 8 catches for 92 yards on 9 targets in the first meeting with the Bills with Zach Wilson at QB back in week 9, and Mike White should continue to look his way a lot to try and keep pace with Buffalo on Sunday. Buffalo ranks an impressive 7^th in pass defense DVOA, but they’ve allowed the 11^th-most points per game to opposing wide receivers. They’ve allowed 110+ yards to the opposing WR1 in 3 of their last 4 games (to Justin Jefferson, Amari Cooper, and Amon-Ra St. Brown). Wilson is a safe WR2 with a top-5 ceiling even in what looks like a tougher matchup.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lead Toward Starting:

RB Zonovan Knight, NYJ (Wk. 14: @Buf.): Bam Knight has come seemingly out of nowhere to post back-to-back top-24 finishes (one of them a top-12 finish) in his first two games of NFL action. Head coach Robert Saleh has said that Knight will remain in the lead back role this week, even if Michael Carter is able to return from injury. The matchup isn’t an easy one – the Bills rank 3^rd in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 10^th-fewest RB points per game – but the Jets were able to run for over 120 yards in the first meeting with Buffalo, and the Bills’ defense isn’t at full strength. Von Miller is officially out for the season, and DT Jordan Phillips and LB Matt Milano are both not practicing as of Wednesday. Knight is close to a lock for 15+ touches, and he should push for a RB2 finish again with so many top backs off for the week on byes.

RB Isiah Pacheco, KC (Wk. 14: @Den.): The numbers for Pacheco have been strong over the past month. He’s topped 80 scrimmage yards in 4 straight games and scored a TD in each of the last two. There are still some concerns about his underlying usage, but the bottom line is that he’s the clear lead back for one of the most explosive offenses in the league, and that makes him an RB2 option just about every week. Most of the usage concerns for Pacheco stem from a lack of passing game usage and goal-line touches. It seemed that Pacheco had turned a corner in week 12 when he got a dozen red zone carries, but all of that happened with a double-digit lead. Last weekend, with a worse game script, Pacheco’s 8-yard TD in the 3^rd quarter was his only touch in the red zone. Game script should be positive again this week with the Chiefs 9.5-point favorites. Denver has limited RBs to the 9^th-fewest fantasy points per game, but they’re just 17^th in run defense DVOA. They’re far from impenetrable. 3 backs they’ve faced in the last 5 weeks have topped 100 yards on the ground. I wouldn’t call Pacheco a ‘must-start’ if you’ve got solid backs ahead of him, but he’s a strong RB2 option this week.

RB James Cook, BUF (Wk. 14: vs. NYJ): Cook rebounded from a poor fantasy day on Thanksgiving in a big way last week. He was arguably the focal point of the offense against the Patriots in week 13, tallying more rushing attempts than Devin Singletary for the first time all year, and was 3^rd on the team with 6 targets, just 3 fewer than Stefon Diggs. He finished the week as the PPR RB13 without scoring a TD. Cook has been more efficient than Singletary when given opportunities, and the Bills would be wise to continue to give him the ball. Buffalo has been inconsistent in the last few weeks when it comes to their run/pass splits, alternating between being a run-heavy and pass-heavy team in subsequent games. They went pass-heavy against the Vikings and Lions and run-heavy against the Browns and Patriots. Cook was a major beneficiary in the games where they went run-heavy. For what it’s worth, the Jets are more vulnerable on the ground than through the air, though they’re a solid defense overall. New York ranks 5^th in pass defense DVOA, and their outside corners DJ Reed and Sauce Gardner have been phenomenal this year. They rank 11^th in run defense DVOA and have allowed a double-digit fantasy day (half-PPR) to 4 backs in their last 3 games. The Bills’ running backs didn’t have great success against the Jets the first time around, but I think Buffalo has found something in their ground game in recent weeks and will have success this time. Cook’s role is very much in flux this week, but I think the increased usage continues, and he finishes as a top-24 back this week.

WR George Pickens, PIT (Wk. 14: vs. Bal.): Pickens was a huge disappointment last weekend, putting up just 1 catch for 2 yards on 2 targets, and making a scene on the sideline out of frustration with his usage (or lack thereof). The rookie downplayed the significance of the blowup in interviews after the game, but I think he gets the squeaky wheel treatment this week. The Ravens have struggled to limit wide receivers this season, allowing the 8^th-most points per game to the position, and with so many players on byes this week, I think Pickens gets fed enough to post a useful week. Be warned, I don’t think he’s going to put up a monster game here, but 60-70 yards feels like a strong possibility. That ceiling goes up if Diontae Johnson misses this game. Johnson isn’t practicing as of Thursday.

TE Greg Dulcich, DEN (Wk. 14: vs. KC): Last Sunday was a banner day for Dulcich with the top two pass catching options banged up for the Broncos. Jerry Jeudy returned from a multi-week ankle injury and played a limited role (41% route participation rate), and Courtland Sutton suffered a hamstring injury and left the game early, and Dulcich made the most of his expanded opportunity. The rookie tallied 6 catches for 85 yards on 8 targets, good enough for a PPR TE2 finish for the week. It was the 4^th time Dulcich has finished as a top-12 TE in the 7 games he’s played this year, and he’s got a good chance to make it 5 of 8 this week even if Sutton is able to play. If Sutton sits, the ceiling gets even higher for Dulcich. He was used more like a wide receiver last Sunday, spending 54.5% of his snaps lined up in the slot, and he has the 3^rd-highest air yardage total of any tight end since his debut. Dulcich is a top-10 option at tight end this week against a KC defense that ranks 26^th in pass defense DVOA.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB Kenny Pickett, PIT (Wk. 14: vs. Bal.): With only 26 teams in action this week, I can’t just flat out say that you know to sit Kenny Pickett if you’re in a 2-QB league. You might not have any other choice in those formats. Just know that he belongs toward the bottom of the list of those 26 starting QBs in terms of fantasy outlook for this week. The matchup seems favorable on paper, with the Ravens allowing the 12^th-most QB points per game, but Pickett hasn’t shown an ability to cash in on good matchups this season. The rookie has just one top-15 finish all season and hasn’t accounted for more than 1 TD in any of his last 8 starts. The Steelers’ offense as a whole has been better in recent weeks, but that’s been due to a renewed commitment to running the football and not putting too much on Pickett’s shoulders. The rookie has gone 4 straight games without a turnover, but he’s only thrown for 200 yards in one of those games. If you’re looking for 12-15 points from your QB2, Pickett will probably get you that. If you’re looking for more, you should look somewhere else.

RB Rachaad White, TB (Wk. 14: @SF): Leonard Fournette returned to action on Monday night, and White returned to a full-on timeshare role with Lenny. Fournette played 15 more snaps than White against the Saints, but only out-touched him by one (16-to-15). 15 touches isn’t a bad day for a running back, and White did finish the week as the PPR RB10 on the strength of a late TD, but I don’t feel good about his chances of repeating the strong performance in this one. White has largely been inefficient this season, ranking just 41^st in yards per touch out of 52 qualified running backs. He also faces a San Francisco defense this week that has allowed the fewest RB points per game and ranks 2^nd in run defense DVOA. The 49ers haven’t allowed 50+ rushing yards to a back since week 6. They haven’t allowed 40+ receiving yards to a back since week 5, and they’ve allowed only one back to find the end zone in their last 5 games. If White is only going to get half of the workload, his only path to relevance this week will be finding the end zone or piling up a bunch of receptions. I don’t like his chances to score a TD. There could be a little bit more hope on the receiving front – the 49ers have allowed 7 receptions each to Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler this season, and 6 to Alvin Kamara – but even a 5 or 6 catch game might only get White into low-end RB2 range. You might not have better options this week but be warned this is probably a floor game for the rookie.

RB Dameon Pierce, HOU (Wk. 14: @Dal.): Pierce was a bit more effective on the ground last weekend than he’d been in the two games prior, rushing for 73 yards on 18 carries, and ranking in the top-24 PPR finishers for the week. That performance came against arguably the worst run defense in the NFL. Things get much tougher this week. The Cowboys rank 8^th in run defense DVOA and have allowed just the 5^th-fewest RB points per game. They’re also an absurd 17-point favorite. The Texans may abandon the run early in this one, and Pierce has been ceding garbage time work to Dare Ogunbowale in the last couple weeks. There is very real risk here that Pierce puts up another 5-point dud. He’s still almost certain to see double-digit touches, so he’s an RB3 at worst, but be aware of the downside if you’re considering him.

RB Jordan Mason, SF (Wk. 14: vs. TB): It was Mason who emerged as the 49ers new #2 running back with Elijah Mitchell done for the year, which makes him a viable fantasy option in the 49ers run-heavy attack. They’ll likely try to be even more run-heavy with Brock Purdy now playing QB, but McCaffrey dominated the high-value touches last weekend, and likely will going forward. Mason ran a route on just 8% of the team’s passing dropbacks and saw 0% of the short down & distance snaps. If CMC is going to get all the passing work, and all the short yardage/goal line work, it’ll be an uphill fight for Mason to put up fantasy production. He was exceptional last week, putting up 51 yards on 8 carries, but that was good enough to finish as just the RB38 in non-PPR scoring. The Bucs allow the 3^rd-fewest RB points per game, so this is an especially bad week to plug in Mason and hope for success on limited opportunities.

RB Kyren Williams, LAR (Wk 14: vs. LV): The Raiders allow the 6^th-most RB points per game, so any RB who has a meaningful role against them should be in consideration for fantasy lineups, but I don’t have the stomach to rely on Williams this week, especially if you need a win. The Rams’ backfield usage has been an enigma all season. They seemingly have a different lead back each week, often due to injuries, but in some cases with less rhyme or reason. Kyren had his turn as lead back in week 12, handling 14 touches against the Chiefs, but he was down to just 3 touches last Sunday as Cam Akers was re-inserted into the lead role. If you’re confident in a bounce-back in usage for Williams this week, he’s got upside as a RB3 in a good matchup, but I’m not confident in that bounce-back.

WR Treylon Burks, TEN (Wk. 14: vs. Jax.): Burks suffered what looked like a nasty concussion on his TD catch last Sunday. He draws a favorable matchup this week with the Jaguars, who allow the 9^th-most WR points per game and rank 31^st in pass defense DVOA, but it remains very questionable whether he’ll clear the concussion protocol in time to play or not. If he’s able to get cleared, he’ll do so after sitting for most of the week of practice (he’s not practicing as of Thursday), and that could result in him being less involved in the game plan. Burks has big play upside if he’s active and you want to take a swing here, but I’d exercise caution before firing him up.

TE Cade Otton, TB (Wk. 14: @SF): Otton was the PPR TE1 last week, and I would probably sit him this week if you have another reasonable option. Otton got an unexpected boost on Monday night when Cam Brate was a surprise inactive due to an illness. It resulted in Otton playing 82% of the team’s offensive snaps, and even with all that playing time, he didn’t make much of an impact until two frantic scoring drives at the end of the game for a come-from-behind win. Nearly 70% of Otton’s fantasy points were tallied in those last two drives, and the line that made him THE TE1 for the week was just 6-28-1. It was a terrible week for top TE performances. Brate is practicing in full this week, and Otton hasn’t scored even 7 PPR points in any game where Brate has been active. He’s scored 10+ in 4 of the 5 games that Brate has missed. I would assume Brate returns this week, and the 49ers have allowed the 4^th-fewest TE fantasy points per game. Only Tyler Higbee and Travis Kelce have tallied 30+ receiving yards against them from the tight end position. Steer clear of Otton this week.

TE Trey McBride, ARI (Wk. 14: vs. NE): The fact that I’m listing McBride as a ‘borderline’ option at all speaks to just how dire the TE landscape is right now. McBride has been in a full-time role since Zach Ertz got hurt. He’s had a 70% route participation rate or higher in 3 straight games, but he’s totaled just 22 yards on 8 targets in those 3 games. The Patriots have allowed the 10^th-most TE points per game but starting McBride would be just a shot in the dark that he gets on track.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

RB Jaylen Warren, PIT (Wk. 14: vs. Bal.): The Steelers have shown a renewed commitment to running the ball, but it’s meant a resurgence for Najee Harris, who has posted his 3 highest rushing totals of the season over the last 4 weeks. Warren has been battling a hamstring injury that kept him out for most of weeks 11 & 12, and he came back to just 3 touches on 13 snaps last Sunday. He should at least move back ahead of Benny Snell this week and play a bit more than he did last weekend, but the Ravens have given up just the 6^th-fewest running back points per game. Warren won’t have a big enough role behind Najee to be a good option in that matchup.

WR Skyy Moore, KC (Wk. 14: @Den.): After back-to-back 6-target games for Moore, the bottom fell out last week for the rookie. JuJu Smith-Schuster was back to his usual role after being eased back from his concussion a few weeks ago, but that wasn’t the biggest issue for Moore. Skyy played just about the same snap share as he had in the two prior weeks, but he didn’t earn a single target after earning one on nearly 40% of his routes run over those two prior weeks. Moore’s limited playing team means there will be weeks like this where just doesn’t get involved. The Chiefs have too many weapons for everyone to produce every week. I wouldn’t roll the dice on him getting back on track this week against a Denver defense that allows the fewest WR points per game.

WR Tyquan Thornton, NE (Wk. 14: @Ari.): Thornton has been under a 40% snap share in each of the past 3 weeks and has just 3 catches for 36 yards in those games combined. Four other Patriot wide receivers had a higher route participation rate than Thornton against the Bills. There’s always the threat that Tyquan takes the top off the defense, but I’d rather not start him and have to pray that he does.

WR David Bell, CLE (Wk. 14: @Cin.): I’ve talked up Bell as having upside when Deshaun Watson returns from his suspension, but Watson’s debut put that notion to bed quickly. Bell had been seeing his role grow in the weeks leading up Deshaun’s return, but inexplicably the Browns chose to deploy Demetric Felton as their primary slot receiver last Sunday. Bell played just 3 snaps while Felton played 38. Felton wasn’t targeted even once, but he was on the field a ton. It could just be a product of facing a bad Texans team, or just a one game blip, but either way you can’t plug Bell into lineups anywhere for this week.

TE Isaiah Likely, BAL (Wk. 14: @Pit.): The tight end pool is a dumpster fire outside of the top few options, but don’t be fooled into thinking Likely is in play after his 4-catch game last week. 3-4 weekly targets is pretty the most you can reasonably hope for while Mark Andrews is healthy. That’s not enough to take a chance on Likely against a middling Steelers’ defense.

TEs Jake Ferguson & Peyton Hendershot, DAL (Wk. 14: vs. Hou.): There may be some DFS upside here with the Cowboys an absurd 17-point favorite against the Texans. All the Cowboys’ backups could get some run in this game, and that includes the pair of backup tight ends. Both players have limited ceilings, so I’d limit exposure to Showdown contests. Hendershot is the much cheaper option ($400 on DraftKings compared to $1,800 for Ferguson), but Ferguson is the one who is on the field more and has seen more opportunities in recent weeks. Ferguson has seen 7 targets come his way in the last 3 games, while Hendershot has just 1 catch and one rushing attempt in the last 4. Both guys are just TD dart throws here anyway, but if this really does turn into the rout that it’s supposed to, it could be Hendershot who benefits since Ferguson may be viewed as more important to the offense (he’s played more than 45% of the offensive snaps in 4 of the last 5 games).

Rookies on Bye: RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL, RB Brian Robinson Jr., WAS, RB Trestan Ebner, CHI, WR Drake London, ATL, WRs Chris Olave & Rashid Shaheed, NO, WRs Christian Watson & Romeo Doubs, GB, WR Jahan Dotson, WAS, WR Alec Pierce, IND, TE Jelani Woods, IND, TE Cole Turner, WAS

Rookies Who May as Well Be on a Bye: RB Isaiah Spiller, LAC, RB Keaontay Ingram, ARI, RB Tyrion Davis-Price, SF, RB Raheem Blackshear, CAR, RB Zamir White, LV, WR Jalen Tolbert, DAL, WR Khalil Shakir, BUF

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Brock Purdy, SF (Wk. 14: vs. TB): The 49ers season appeared to take a catastrophic turn last week when Jimmy Garoppolo was carted off after being tackled awkwardly by a Miami defender. Testing this week has confirmed that Garoppolo is done for at least the regular season, but if Purdy’s play in relief of Jimmy G last week is any indication, the 49ers’ championship hopes might not be completely dead yet. The rookie commanded the huddle and played surprisingly well in his debut. The 49ers were already a run-first offense, and they’ll certainly remain that way with Purdy under center, but when he needed to throw, Purdy was decisive and put the ball on-target. I’m sure there will be bumps along the way as defenses throw different wrinkles at him, and the Bucs are a tougher matchup this week (8^th in pass defense DVOA), but Purdy looks up to the task of guiding the 49ers down the stretch. With the weapons at his disposal, and Kyle Shanahan calling the plays, I’d view Purdy as a weekly mid-range QB2 who could post some spike weeks when things break his way. He shouldn’t be on the waiver wire in 2-QB leagues.

QB Desmond Ridder, ATL (Wk. 14: Bye): Ridder is on a bye this week, but the time to pick him up in redraft superflex leagues is now. He’s likely already rostered in dynasty leagues, but Arthur Smith has hinted that a QB change may be coming after the bye week with the Falcons essentially out of playoff contention. The Atlanta offense will cap his passing upside, but Ridder has a bit of Konami code rushing upside to tap into. If you were starting Jimmy Garoppolo, Marcus Mariota, or Lamar Jackson in a superflex league, Ridder could be a valuable add for the stretch run. Atlanta’s opponents in week 16 & 17 (Baltimore and Arizona) are both in the bottom 12 defenses at limiting QB fantasy points. Arizona is in the bottom 5.

UPDATE: The Falcons have officially named Ridder as their starting QB for week 15

WR Jameson Williams, DET (Wk. 14: vs. Min.): Firing up Williams this week in season-long leagues is probably off the table for you after seeing the rookie play just 8 snaps and earn 1 target in his debut last week. The team offensive coordinator Ben Johnson was quoted as saying he hopes Williams will have a bigger role moving forward but noted that “I don’t know what that means necessarily for the rep count.” With that kind of tepid endorsement, it’s hard to have much confidence in a breakout game this week for Williams, but the opportunity could be there. The Vikings rank 24^th in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 3^rd-most WR points per game. Jameson is also a big play waiting to happen – he can burn defenses on the deep ball, or with yards after the catch – and the Vikings have struggled to defend both this year. Minnesota has allowed the 5^th-most air yards on completions this year, and the 2^nd-most yards after catch. It’s mostly just an upside swing if you plug Williams into your DFS lineups this week, but there’s room for a big ceiling if he gets the opportunities.

TE Chig Okonkwo, TEN (Wk. 14: vs. Jax.): Okonkwo has now posted a 30+ yard catch in 4 of his last 5 games, and 5 targets in each of the last two, and he could see an expanded receiving role this week if fellow rookie Treylon Burks isn’t able to clear the concussion protocol prior to the game. Okonkwo was in a route on 78% of the team passing dropbacks after Burks left the game and earned a 25% target share. The Jaguars have given up 100+ yards to opposing tight ends in two of their last 3 games, and 80+ in 3 of their last 5. There’s top-5 upside for Okonkwo if Burks is out. He’s more of fringe TE1 streaming option if Burks can suit up.

TE Daniel Bellinger, NYG (Wk. 14: vs. Phi.): Bellinger returned from IR last week and immediately stepped back into a full-time role, playing 97% of the offensive snaps and posting an 81% route participation rate. He didn’t put up much production (5-24 on 5 targets), but he was facing off with a Washington defense that allows the 2^nd-fewest TE points per game. This week he faces an Eagles’ defense than allowed 4-68 to Chig Okonkwo last week in their first game without CJ Gardner-Johnson at safety. The Eagles are still allowing just the 8^th-fewest TE points per game for the year, but they’ve been showing cracks defensively in the middle of the field. Bellinger isn’t more than a fringe streaming option this week for 12-team leagues or deeper, but there’s solid DFS potential here as well with just a $3,300 price tag on DraftKings. 

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you pick up another big win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.