Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 8 finally brought us the scoring outburst we’ve been clamoring for all season. The week saw a season-high 8 games where the teams combined for 45+ points, and a season-high 9 skill players put up 30+ PPR points. I’m sure you saw higher overall scores across your fantasy leagues in week 8, and hopefully you were the beneficiary of some of those scoring outbursts. Don’t get too used to it though – week 9 is the one of just two weeks this season with 6 teams on a bye in the same week, so overall scores will probably come down. You’re likely going to have to do work to fill in some lineup gaps this week, and if you’ve been here before, you know I’ve got some rookies to tell you about that could help you do that.

Week 8 was sort of a mixed bag for the rookies. We saw Garrett Wilson get his season back on track with the 2^nd 100-yard game of his career. Dameon Pierce and Kenneth Walker III both had lackluster days that were salvaged by late TDs. Tyler Allgeier outproduced them both. Romeo Doubs and Samori Toure both got into the end zone for the Packers on Sunday night while Christian Watson left with a concussion. Chris Olave and Alec Pierce had ho-hum games while George Pickens and Drake London disappointed. Malik Willis got a win in his first start but posted an abysmal fantasy day. Which of these guys can you rely on to help you through the byes in week 9? That’s what I’m here to discuss.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Any data on route participation, air yards, and other usage rates are per Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report on Pro Football Focus.

Let’s get into week 9…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

RB Kenneth Walker III, SEA (Wk. 9: @Ari.): Walker looked like he was going to be a huge let down in week 8, but a 4^th-quarter touchdown helped propel him to a RB25 finish that didn’t kill you if he was in your lineup. It was Walker’s 4^th straight game with a touchdown and 3^rd straight with 18+ carries. He ran for 97 yards and a score in the first meeting with these Cardinals back in week 6. The lack of meaningful passing game targets will always limit Walker’s ceiling, but his volume on the ground keeps him a safe weekly RB2, especially facing a defense he’s already smashed against in a week with so many byes.

WR Chris Olave, NO (Wk. 9: vs. Bal.): Olave had his worst fantasy day since week 1 last Sunday, and he still managed to post double-digit PPR points. Olave was still heavily involved in the passing game (25% target share and 32% air yardage share), but the Saints just played from ahead all day and didn’t need to throw much in a 24-0 victory. Things should go back to normal in week 9. New Orleans is a 3-point underdog at home against the Ravens on Monday night. At some point Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry will return the lineup, but for now those guys feel like figments of our imagination. Olave likely will maintain the WR1 role when they’re back, and the Ravens allow the 5^th-most WR points per game. He's a top-24 option this week no matter who else is able to suit up.

UPDATE: Michael Thomas has been placed on IR and likely will miss the remainder of the season.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL (Wk. 9: vs. LAC): This recommendation is contingent on the status of Cordarrelle Patterson this week, but if C-Patt sits, I like Allgeier as a strong RB2 option in this one. Allgeier has played more than 55% of the snaps in all 4 games Patterson has missed, and he’s led the backfield in PPR points in 3 of them and in routes run in all 4. The Chargers have allowed the 2^nd-most RB points per game and rank just 23^rd in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA. It’s one of the best matchups a running back can draw. If Cordarrelle returns, you could probably still get away with starting Allgeier as a RB3 if you’re in a pinch.

RB Dameon Pierce, HOU (Wk. 9: vs. Phi.): My fears about Pierce last week came to fruition for most of his day against the Titans’ stout run defense. Pierce had tallied just 6.8 PPR points for the day prior to his garbage-time TD in the final 30 seconds that saved his afternoon. You probably were breathing a sigh of relief when he got into the end zone if you started him last week, but you might’ve missed a positive change to his role while you were stressing over his stat line. PFF’s Dwain McFarland pointed out this week that Pierce was on the field for 100% of the Texans’ snaps in the two-minute offense. They were the first snaps he’s seen all year in the two-minute drill, and it was on those snaps that he scored that late touchdown. Those are the snaps where Pierce can put up garbage time receiving production and pad both his floor and his ceiling. Despite their 7-0 record, the Eagles are just a middling RB defense. They’ve allowed the 15^th-most RB points per game, and rank 22^nd in run defense DVOA. Pierce would be a reasonable RB2 this week on just his rushing role, but if the two-minute snaps continue he’s got the upside for a top-12 finish. The Texans should be fighting from behind late in this game.

WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 9: vs. Buf.): The Jets’ passing game has been pretty rough since Zach Wilson took the starting job back in week 4, but week 8 showed us that things aren’t as dire as they’ve seemed. Zach is still going to be inefficient, but when the game script is bad the passing volume is going to be there. Zach has started 5 games this season. In the three games where the Jets never trailed by more than 2 points, he averaged 22 passing attempts per game. In the other two games (both games where the Jets fell behind by double-digits), he averaged 38.5 attempts. They’re nearly certain to be in negative game script as 13-point underdogs against the Bills. Buffalo’s defense has been impressive, ranking 4^th in pass defense DVOA, but Garrett Wilson has benefitted from Elijah Moore being in the doghouse. He played his highest snap share of the season last week and piled up over 100 yards for the 2^nd time this year. He looks to be the team’s clear WR1 in a game where the Jets are likely to throw the ball 40+ times. He should be viewed as an upside WR2 this week and will probably be a bargain at his current price tag in DFS contests ($4,800 on DraftKings). With Breece Hall out for the season, games with negative game script could become more frequent for the Jets. Garrett Wilson is a guy you should be trying to trade for now before his price goes up.

WR Romeo Doubs, GB (Wk. 9: @Det.): Figuring out when to start Doubs this season has felt a bit like playing whack-a-mole. He pops up scoring points for a couple weeks, so you take a swing at starting him in your lineups, and then he disappears for a couple weeks, only to pop up again when you’ve already moved on. You’re always chasing those elusive weeks when he’s useful. On the plus side for Doubs, his playing time has remained consistent. He checks in above an 85% route participation rate every week, and he’s earned at least 7 targets in 4 of the last 6 games. There’s still plenty of volatility here, but with so many byes this week and Green Bay facing a Detroit defense that ranks dead last in pass defense DVOA, it's hard to view Doubs as anything less than a solid WR3 this week. Green Bay has one of the highest implied point totals of the week at 26.25 points, so this is an offense that you want to target for your lineups, and Doubs is a full-time player in it.

TE Isaiah Likely, BAL (Wk. 9: @NO): Mark Andrews status remains up in the air for week 9, and Rashod Bateman has already been ruled out. Likely could be the #2 target in this passing game on Monday night. The Saints have been erasing tight ends so far this season – no tight end has found the end zone against them or reached 7 fantasy points against them (half-PPR) all season – but Zach Ertz is the only quality tight end they’ve faced. The Ravens are going to have to lean on Likely if Andrews is out. Don’t worry about the matchup. Likely is probably going to finish as a top-12 tight end this week if Andrews sits. I’d be much less excited to start him if Andrews is able to play.

UPDATE: Rashod Bateman has been placed on IR and will miss the remainder of the season. Likely may have a bigger role moving forward even when Andrews is on the field.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

RB Brian Robinson Jr., WAS (Wk. 9: vs. Min.): Robinson’s week-to-week fantasy outlook hinges on volume and getting into the end zone. He’s averaged fewer than 4 yards per carry in every game he’s played this season, and he’s earned just two targets all year. That didn’t stop him from putting up respectable fantasy days in wins against the Bears and Packers, but the recent re-emergence of Antonio Gibson and negative game script in the 4^th quarter against the Colts resulted in B-Rob putting up just 2 fantasy points in week 8. I don’t see much reason to be optimistic about a bounce-back in week 9. The Vikings are favored by 3, and they rank 16^th in run defense DVOA and allow the 10^th-fewest RB points per game. 16^th may not sound very impressive, but Robinson failed to run efficiently against Chicago and Green Bay, who rank 28^th & 31^st respectively. This looks like a game where 10-12 carries from Robinson would be a positive result for him, and that kind of volume probably means around 35-40 yards. You’ll need a TD to not be disappointed. I’d look elsewhere unless you’re stuck.

RB Isiah Pacheco, KC (Wk. 9: vs. Ten.): Pacheco was announced as the Chiefs starting running back ahead of their week 7 tilt with the 49ers, but he handled all of 8 carries in that game, and 4 of them came in the 4^th quarter with the team up by double-digits. He did see a few more first half carries than usual, but it was far from the featured back role people were hoping for after the announcement. This is still a 3-way committee with CEH and Jerick McKinnon. Kansas City is an 11-point favorite this week, so there’s an opportunity for some extra garbage time carries, but the Titans rank 1^st in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 5^th-fewest running back points per game. Pacheco doesn’t catch passes (just 2 receptions all season), so he’s going to need to have success on the ground to post a useful day. He’s a low-end RB3 this week.

RB Rachaad White, TB (Wk. 9: vs. LAR): White continues to play just enough to keep himself in the borderline discussion each week. He’s handled between 7 and 9 touches in 5 straight games and consistently finishes as a PPR RB4. Leonard Fournette continues to handle the goal line touches and enough of the passing work that White lives on the fringe of useful. The Rams have allowed the 11^th-fewest running back points per game, so this isn’t the matchup to bet on White stepping up his production on that same workload. If you are desperate for a running back this week, White should be a fringe RB3 with all the byes going on, but I wouldn’t count on him for much more than that.

WR Drake London, ATL (Wk. 9: vs. LAC): London continues to be a victim of Arthur Smith’s run-heavy play calling, and I don’t see that getting better for him in week 9. The rookie hasn’t reached 8 PPR points in any of his last 5 games despite a 24.2% target share over that span. On paper, you may be looking at this game as a get-right spot for London. The Chargers seem like the kind of team that can put the Falcons in negative game script, and they allow the 12^th-most wide receiver points per game. It seems like a great opportunity for Atlanta’s WR1 to have a nice day. Unfortunately, the Chargers offense will be a lot less explosive without Keenan Allen or Mike Williams, and they boast one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. The Chargers have allowed a league-worst 6.1 yards per carry to opposing running backs. Game script might not be so negative for Atlanta, and the Falcons should be able to impose their will in the running game, especially with it looking like Cordarrelle Patterson will return from IR this week. Anything over 5 targets for London in this game should be seen as a win. That gets him to the fringe of being playable for week 9 with 6 teams off, but you likely have better options.

WR Alec Pierce, IND (Wk. 9: @NE): Pierce has topped 60 receiving yards or scored a touchdown in 5 of his last 6 games, but my concerns about passing volume with Sam Ehlinger taking over at QB proved to be valid in week 8. The young QB threw the ball just 23 times, with only 5 targets going to Pierce. Matt Ryan averaged 42.4 passing attempts per game in his 7 starts. Pierce has made the most of his opportunities this season, averaging over 10 yards per target in those last 6 games, a mark only 18 players have hit for the season so far, but the more concerning stat was that he saw his lowest route participation rate since week 4 at just 65%. The Colts played with 2 tight ends on the field more often after the QB switch, which cuts into Pierce’s playing time. He’s still a good bet to see right around 5 targets, and maybe a little bit more if Jonathan Taylor sits this week, but if you start him, you shouldn’t expect more than a floor performance. The Patriots rank 5^th in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 11^th fewest WR points per game. You could do worse than Pierce as a bye week fill in, but temper expectations.

WR Jahan Dotson, WAS (Wk. 9: vs. Min.): Dotson isn’t practicing yet this week as of Wednesday, but there’s a chance he could return for Sunday’s game. The matchup looks good on paper. The Vikings rank 22^nd in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 7^th-most WR points per game, but Dotson would be coming off a 4-week layoff and QB Taylor Heinicke has been leaning heavily on the guys he’s comfortable with – Terry McLaurin and Antonio Gibson. McLaurin has averaged 8 targets per game in Heinicke’s two starts, and he’s seen air yardage shares of 48% and 62% in those games. He’s the WR you want for fantasy this week. Dotson has some upside as a WR4 option if he does play, but I’d prefer other options if you’re not forced to start the rookie.

TE Cade Otton, TB (Wk. 9: vs. LAR): Cam Brate is practicing in a limited capacity as of Wednesday, so keep a close eye on the injury report if you’re considering Otton. If Brate plays, you certainly don’t want to plug Otton into lineups. If Brate sits, Otton is still not a great play this week against a Rams’ defense that allows the 3^rd-fewest tight end points per game. Only George Kittle and Zach Ertz have scored 7 points against them in a game this year, and Otton hasn’t reached a 15% target share in a game this season. In his productive weeks, Tom Brady has been throwing the ball 50+ times. Otton is a floor play TE2 this week if Brate sits.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

RB James Cook, BUF (Wk. 9: @NYJ): Cook seemed to finally gain some traction in the Bills offense in week 8, playing his second-highest snap share of the season and handling some touches in the 2^nd quarter while the game was still in doubt, but the Bills may have derailed that progress by trading for Nyheim Hines at the deadline. Cook may be back to being the RB3 in the offense this week. Buffalo is a two-TD favorite in this game, so there’s a very good chance that Cook gets some run in garbage time, but I wouldn’t count on big production from those carries against a Jets’ defense that ranks 8^th in run defense DVOA. Cook is nothing more than an upside dart throw this week for DFS contests and the deepest of season-long leagues.

RBs Kyren Williams & Ronnie Rivers, LAR (Wk. 9: @TB): Sean McVay has said Kyren Williams could be activated from IR for week 9, but it remains to be seen how big of a role he’ll step into after 7 weeks off. Ronnie Rivers led the backfield in touches last week, but he wasn’t effective with them, totaling just 7.6 PPR points. There’s no guarantee he leads the backfield again this week (my money would be on Darrell Henderson), but the Bucs allow the 6^th-fewest RB points per game. No running back in this muddied committee will be more than a desperation bye week fill-in.

UPDATE: Cam Akers returned to practice on Thursday and may be active for week 9, making this committee even less defined.

RB Raheem Blackshear, CAR (Wk. 9: @Cin.): Regardless of whether Chuba Hubbard can return this week or not, Blackshear doesn’t have fantasy relevance in week 9. Spencer Brown served as the change of pace back behind D’Onta Foreman in week 8, and Laviska Shenault more or less functioned as the receiving back. Blackshear played just 7 snaps against the Falcons, and I wouldn’t count on more this week.

RB Isaiah Spiller, LAC (Wk. 9: @Atl.): Spiller was finally active for the first time this season in week 7 ahead of the bye last week, but he played just 4 snaps and worked behind backup Sony Michel. It’s possible that could’ve been game-script related – the Chargers trailed for most of that game – but you can’t count on Spiller getting significant opportunities this week. The matchup is a good one. Atlanta ranks 26^th in run defense DVOA, but there’s no guarantee that Spiller gets more than 1 or 2 carries.

RB Snoop Conner, JAX (Wk. 9: vs. LV): Conner played just one offensive snap last week in his season debut. He’s not a fantasy option.

WR Tyquan Thornton, NE (Wk. 9: vs. Ind.): Thornton’s explosive speed always makes him a threat to break a big play, but he has fewer than 3 PPR points in 3 of his 4 games played this season. He scored 2 touchdowns in the other one. His route participation rate has been above 80% in each of the last two weeks, but the targets just haven’t been there. This week’s opponent, the Colts, allow the 2^nd-fewest WR points per game.

WRs Christian Watson & Samori Toure, GB (Wk. 9: @Det.): Watson suffered a concussion last week and seems unlikely to be ready to play in Detroit, and the likely return of Allen Lazard this week means Watson’s probably going to play only a handful of snaps if he’s able to clear the protocol. Toure scored a touchdown in week 8, but he played just 14 offensive snaps. Banking on another long TD from Toure on limited snaps this week is just asking to be let down.

WR Velus Jones Jr., CHI (Wk. 9: vs. Mia.): Jones had a season-high in touches in week 8, with 3. He’s made a couple nice plays this season when he’s gotten chances, but he’s too buried on the depth chart to be useful in fantasy leagues. The Bears also just traded for Chase Claypool and may get Byron Pringle back this week. Jones is only getting pushed further down that depth chart

WR Khalil Shakir, BUF (Wk. 9: @NYJ): Shakir hasn’t been targeted more than twice in any game that Isaiah McKenzie has been active for. You’d have to be pretty desperate to consider him this week.

WR Skyy Moore, KC (Wk. 9: vs. Ten.): Tennessee is a great matchup for wide receivers, but Moore is undoubtedly going to lose snaps after the acquisition of Kadarius Toney from the Giants. Moore was only playing around 30% of the offensive snaps over the last month anyway. Losing any of that playing time is likely the final nail in his fantasy coffin for 2022.

TE Chig Okonkwo, TEN (Wk. 9: @KC): Okonkwo has quietly seen his playing time go up in recent weeks. He had a season-high 50% route participation rate in week 8 and mostly played ahead of Austin Hooper. He’d be a sneaky TD dart throw this week facing a KC defense that has allowed 5 tight end scores in 7 games, but the Titans just don’t throw enough to rely on any of their pass catchers, especially if Ryan Tannehill is out again. Tannehill has thrown more than 25 pass attempts just once in his last 5 starts, and the Titans threw the ball just 10 times last week with Malik Willis under center. Game script could force them to throw more as 11-point underdogs in Kansas City, but look for the Titans to do everything they can to run the ball and keep it away from Patrick Mahomes. The floor here is non-existent, and the ceiling is maybe 4-5 targets.

TE Trey McBride, ARI (Wk. 9: vs. Sea.): The Seahawks have allowed the most TE points per game, but McBride hasn’t been targeted since week 4. He played 20 snaps in the first meeting with the Seahawks a couple weeks ago and didn’t see the ball come his way even once. He’s not an option this week.

TE Jelani Woods, IND (Wk. 9: @NE): I mentioned last week that I was concerned that the Colts’ passing volume would take a significant hit with the switch to Sam Ehlinger, and that proved to be a valid concern in his first start. Ehlinger attempted just 23 passes on Sunday, and only 4 of them targeted tight ends (none of them to Jelani Woods). The Patriots have allowed the 6^th-most tight end points per game this season, but the Colts would be wise to attack them on the ground. New England ranks 5^th in pass defense DVOA and 27^th in run defense DVOA. If Jonathan Taylor is unable to play, that could force a little more passing volume. It would make Woods an intriguing DFS dart throw, but nothing more than that. He's still mired in a 3-headed tight end rotation.

TEs Armani Rogers & Cole Turner, WAS (Wk. 9: vs. Min.): The Vikings have been vulnerable to tight ends, allowing the 7^th-most points per game to the position, but the Commanders’ tight ends not named Logan Thomas have had just one total outing with more than 3 targets in a game (John Bates in week 4). Thomas could return this week, but even if he doesn’t this is a 3-way logjam that doesn’t offer much fantasy upside. If Thomas sits and you want to throw a dart in a showdown contest at one of their tight ends, my money would be on Rogers ($600 on DraftKings), but none are very good options.

Rookies on Byes: QB Kenny Pickett, PIT, RB Jaylen Warren, PIT, RB Tyrion Davis-Price, SF, WR Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG, WR George Pickens, PIT, WR David Bell, CLE, WR Jalen Tolbert, DAL, TE Greg Dulcich, DEN, TEs Jake Ferguson & Peyton Hendershot, DAL

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Malik Willis, TEN (Wk. 9: @KC): To call Willis’ NFL debut a disappointment would be a huge understatement, but if Tannehill isn’t able to return this week I kind of like the rookie to have a modest bounce-back, at least from a fantasy perspective. Willis wasn’t asked to make plays in week 8 because the Titans didn’t need him to. The Texans were helpless to stop Derrick Henry and Dontrell Hilliard on the ground, and their banged-up offense couldn’t muster enough scoring to make it much of a game. The Chiefs are not likely to have the same problems this week. Tennessee is an 11-point underdog, so Willis will probably have to put the ball in the air quite a bit more this week, and he’s likely to use his legs quite a bit more trying to create plays. The Chiefs have allowed every QB they’ve faced this season to throw for multiple TDs and score 15+ fantasy points. None of those prior opponents were as inexperienced as Willis or had worse receiving weapons, so don’t view 15 points as Willis’ floor, but I like his chances to deliver 50+ rushing yards and finish as a serviceable QB2 this week (assuming he starts and Tannehill sits).

RB Keaontay Ingram, ARI (Wk. 9: vs. Sea.): Darrel Williams returned from injury in week 8, and Ingram didn’t play a single offensive snap. That goose egg is probably going to make Ingram an unpopular pick for DFS lineups this week, but Williams was placed on IR on Wednesday. James Conner continues to practice on a limited basis, but that’s where he’s been the last couple weeks and wound up inactive in each game. If Conner misses another game this week, Ingram will work as the RB2 behind Eno Benjamin again. He handled 11 touches in that same role in week 7, and this week he faces a Seattle defense that allows the 7^th-most RB points per game. He’ll likely need to get into the end zone to reach double-digit points, but Ingram costs just $1,200 for Showdown contests on DraftKings.

RB Jaylen Warren, PIT (Wk. 9: Bye): Warren is on a bye this week, but he may be worth scooping up on the waiver wire if he’s still sitting out there in your leagues. Najee Harris continues to look like a shell of the player he was last season, and the public noise has been getting louder that Warren needs to see more opportunities. Maybe the week off helps Najee rest his ailing foot (he’s been dealing with a Lisfranc injury all season), or maybe it allows the Steelers to take a hard look at which running back gives them a better chance to win. Warren has been significantly more efficient than Najee with his opportunities, and the Steelers have a favorable schedule of run defenses late in the season. Each of Pittsburgh’s final 6 opponents of the year are currently either in the bottom-10 at limiting RB fantasy points or in the bottom 10 in run defense DVOA.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you pick up another big win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.