Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Here we go, onto Week 8! I hope that your team has managed to get into a good position so far this season, but there is still time to right the ship if you're a few games behind. Don't listen to the hype out there - make smart, rational decisions on your pickups and weekly starts and with a little bit of luck your team will be packing to head to the playoffs later this year! Listen to or watch the Fantasy Finish Line podcast to stay on top of the latest news and analysis - we broadcast live on YouTube weekly on Wednesdays at 9pm CT.

Guys that jump out to me this week to overperform expectations: Joe Burrow, James White, Marquise Brown, Mike Gesicki, and New England Patriots DST.

Pay attention to these rankings throughout the season, as they will continue to evolve based on the latest injury updates, news, and player analysis. Have any specific lineup questions? Feel free to tweet us @drinkfive with any of your questions or comments!

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! How great was it to finally have football back last weekend? The NFL season’s opening week went off without a hitch (assuming you didn’t have Mike Evans or Michael Thomas on your team), and hopefully you managed to get off to a 1-0 start. The rookies got off to an interesting start and plenty of them acquitted themselves well considering they didn’t get to play any preseason games. In a reversal of expected roles Jonathan Taylor put on a show as a receiver out of the backfield but struggled as a runner, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire had an impressive debut running between the tackles but didn’t catch a single pass. Both should be every-week starters going forward. Laviska Shenault, Joshua Kelley and Zack Moss all got in the end zone in week 1, and D’Andre Swift nearly did as well. Some other rookies like Michael Pittman, Cam Akers and Bryan Edwards had less successful debuts. Overall, we now have a much better picture of how these guys are going to be deployed and should have a better handle on which ones to consider for your lineups. Let’s dive into week 2…

Rookies to Start:

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC (Wk. 2: @LAC): Obviously you don’t need me to tell you to start CEH if you have him. He was fantastic as a runner in week 1 and made people who drafted him feel great about that decision. It was strange to see him do so much of his work running between the tackles though. It would have been nice to see him catch a few passes, and it would’ve been nice to see him cash in one of his 6 carries from the 3-yard line or closer for a TD (4 carries from the 1), but overall it was a strong debut and the fact that he got 6 carries in close should be seen as a good thing. Houston’s D-line dominated in those short yardage situations, but not every defense KC faces will do the same. The Chiefs are comfortably favored in week 2 and face a defense that ranked 25^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat last season. I’d also expect the team to make an effort to get CEH more involved in the passing game, even if only to prove a point. Edwards-Helaire is a fine play in all DFS formats as well as a locked-in RB1 for season-long leagues this week.

RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (Wk. 2: vs. Min.): Like CEH, you don’t need me to tell you to start Taylor. He didn’t really fill up the stat sheet as a runner last week (9 carries for 22 yards), but Philip Rivers utilized him a bunch in the passing game (6-67 on 6 targets). With Marlon Mack going down for the year, this backfield figures to be a 2-man tandem with Taylor and Hines. Taylor should dominate the early down work, and while the matchup against the Vikings isn’t that favorable – they allowed the 12^th-fewest RB points per game last year, Taylor will see plenty of volume to make him a solid RB2 this week. With a price tag of just $5,700 on DraftKings, I would expect you’ll see Taylor in a high percentage of DFS cash game lineups this week.

RB JK Dobbins, BAL (Wk. 2: @Hou.): I know starting a backup running back in week 2 is a risky proposition. I list Dobbins here just to emphasize how much I like his matchup this week. Houston had a bottom half run defense a year ago and looked overmatched in the opener by CEH and the Chiefs run game (at least away from the goal line). Baltimore is a touchdown favorite this weekend, and I expect them to win the game easily. Houston just didn’t look right in week one, and I don’t think the Ravens are the antidote to what ails them. Dobbins already looked better than Mark Ingram in the opener, and I expect him to get plenty of run as the Ravens open up the lead. This may be me getting ahead of myself on Dobbins, but I like him to go for 80+ yards and a score in this one and finish as an RB2. The Ravens have the highest projected point total of the week at 29.25,

WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Wk. 2: vs. Atl.): The Falcons have had one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL for two years running, and they looked as bad as ever in week 1 against Seattle. Russ Wilson can make a lot of defenses look bad, but the Falcons’ pass defense looked non-existent. This game figures to be a shoot-out with Dallas’ implied total of 28.5, so all 3 Cowboy receivers are in play, especially with tight end Blake Jarwin done for the year. It appeared that Dak was force-feeding the ball to Amari last Sunday, but I’d expect the targets to be more evenly divided in this one. Zeke Elliott should have a big game as well, but we could see all 3 Dallas receivers end up as top-30 WRs this week. Lamb was targeted 6 times in the opener. I’d expect that number to be higher in this one.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Joe Burrow, CIN (Wk. 2: @Cle.): Burrow is only worth considering in 2-quarterback or Superflex formats, but this should be a better matchup for him than the Chargers. The Browns ranked just 18^th in pass defense DVOA last season and were absolutely shredded by Lamar Jackson and the Ravens in week 1. Burrow proved that he’s capable of running the ball himself a bit in the opener, and only Cincinnati allowed more QB rushing yards in 2019 than the Browns. The Vegas sharps don’t expect a big output from Cincy’s offense, giving them an implied total of just 18.75 points, but I think they overperform in this one. I like Burrow’s chances at a top-15 week.

RB James Robinson, JAX (Wk. 2: @Ten.): Robinson’s performance and usage in week 1 may have been even more of a surprise than the outcome of the game. The Jaguars were heavy underdogs and came out with a win, and they may have found their feature back in the process. Most people expected a heavy dose of Chris Thompson on passing downs, but Thompson played just 12 snaps to Robinson’s 36. The Jaguars are heavy underdogs again this week, so temper expectations a bit, but this matchup has about the same degree of difficulty for Robinson as the last one with Indy. Robinson will be heavily involved and should be a solid RB3 this week.

RB D’Andre Swift, DET (Wk. 2: @GB): Week one did not end on a high note for Swift, as he dropped what would’ve been a game-winning touchdown pass in the closing seconds as the Lions blew a 17-point lead in losing to the Bears. Here’s the positive – Swift led the Lions running backs in snaps, playing 10 more than Adrian Peterson and 14 more than Kerryon Johnson. He was battling an injury in practice last week and still was on the field a lot. You’d like to see more production come out of those snaps, but that should be coming. Green Bay fielded one of the worst run defenses in the NFL a year ago, and while AP still figures to see a lot of the rushing load, I’d count on Swift being more involved in this one as he gets closer to health. He’ll be a boom-or-bust upside flex option this week with more value in PPR formats.

RB Zack Moss, BUF (Wk. 2: @Mia.): Moss didn’t pile up a lot of yards in week 1 (27 yards on 12 touches), but his usage is encouraging for fantasy players. He was targeted 4 times in the passing game, and 8 of his 12 touches came in the red zone with one of them ending in a touchdown. The other half of the Bills’ backfield duo, Devin Singletary, had zero red zone touches among his 9 carries and 5 catches. Moss was on the field for the vast majority of red zone snaps. Miami gave up 1.2 running back scores per game a year ago and gave up another one in the opener this year. Moss is a solid bet to score a touchdown for the second straight week, which gives him some flex appeal in most formats. The Dolphins ranked 29^th in run defense DVOA last season, and were 32^nd in that stat in week 1.

WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF (Wk. 2: @NYJ): Aiyuk looks likely to return this week, and he’ll do so in a matchup against one of the worst teams in the NFL. The Jets do have a stout run defense up front, but they can’t cover on the back end. Buffalo attacked them through the air a ton last week with Josh Allen tallying 33 completions for 312 yards and 2 TDs. Buffalo is typically one of the run-heaviest offenses in the league. George Kittle is fighting through an injury this week and Deebo Samuel will be out again. That puts Aiyuk in line for probably 6-8 targets, and against this defense that could be fantasy gold. He could be a huge value this week if you have the stones to play him. Just make sure he’s active on game day.

WR Henry Ruggs, LV (Wk. 2: vs. NO): Ruggs got off to a hot start in week 1 before being sidelined for a bit with a knee injury. He was able to return and finish the game but did most of his damage before getting hurt. The Raiders clearly focused on trying to get the ball in his hands as you’d expect for a first round pick, and this week he faces off against a Saints team that allowed the 5^th-most WR points per game last year. The Saints did revamp the secondary in the offseason adding Janoris Jenkins and Malcolm Jenkins and played a respectable game against Tampa last week, but the best part of that pass defense is top corner Marshon Lattimore. Lattimore doesn’t typically follow receivers into the slot, and that’s where Ruggs played more than 50% of his snaps in week 1. Getting away from Lattimore that often should help Ruggs to a 60+ yard outing this week, and he’s always a threat to take one to the house. If you’re in a deep league or trying to replace an injured starter like Godwin, Golladay or Michael Thomas, Ruggs should be in consideration.

WR Jalen Reagor, PHI (Wk. 2: vs. LAR): Reagor had the longest play of any rookie in week 1 with a 55-yard catch, but it was his only catch of the week. The Eagles had a clear game plan to use Reagor and DeSean Jackson as deep threats, but those tend to be low-percentage throws and neither guy put up a great fantasy day. Reagor and Jackson combined for 11 targets, and both had an average target depth of more than 30 yards. No other receiver on the team was even at 10. It was a good sign that Reagor was involved, but I’d like to see the Eagles diversify the way he’s used and not limit him only to deep shots. He was coming off an injury and played just 59% of the snaps. That was the team-high among the WRs, but I think it will go up this week. I expect Jalen Ramsey will shadow D-Jax, so there is some upside for Reagor on the opposite side. Even if he doesn’t see more short targets this week, it only takes 1 or two deep balls to post a nice fantasy day if he finds the end zone.

WR Jerry Jeudy, DEN (Wk. 2: @Pit.): Courland Sutton seems like a long shot to play again this week, which gives Jeudy another opportunity as the lead wide receiver. Jeudy actually played fewer snaps than either Tim Patrick or DaeSean Hamilton in week 1 but had as many targets (8) as the two of them combined. The Broncos want to get the ball in his hands. The matchup this week is much tougher. The Steelers ranked 3^rd in pass defense DVOA a year ago and did a good job limiting everyone other than Darius Slayton in the opener. I’d lean against playing Jeudy this week unless you have to, but his role in the offense gives him enough upside to consider here.

Rookies to Sit:

RB Cam Akers, LAR (Wk. 2: @Phi.): Akers struggled in his debut while teammate Malcolm Brown got the hot hand, and as a result Brown got the lion’s share of the backfield work. Things don’t get much easier for Akers to make a splash this week with Darrell Henderson a week healthier and a tough visit to the Eagles coming up. Philly allowed the 7^th-fewest RB points per game last season and ranked 3^rd in run defense DVOA a season ago. Peyton Barber found paydirt twice last Sunday against Philly, but the Washington backs combined for just 72 scrimmage yards on 32 touches. If Akers gets the hot hand early he may get more run than last week, but against this defense I wouldn’t bet on it.

RB Josh Kelley, LAC (Wk. 2: vs. KC): Kelly had an impressive debut tallying 12 carries for 60 yards and a score in the opener. The reports that he was going to have a big role alongside Austin Ekeler in this backfield were clearly accurate. He wasn’t targeted in the opener, but Ekeler was only targeted once himself. I think a lot of that has to do with the QB change the franchise went through in the offseason. Philip Rivers was heavily targeting his backs in his Colts debut, but Tyrod has typically not thrown to the running backs at nearly the same clip. The rushing usage should remain strong for both Ekeler and Kelley all year though. The matchup this week doesn’t favor Kelley. The Chiefs did let David Johnson get loose a little bit in the season opener, but this game has obvious blowout potential, and if that happens it’ll be Ekeler handling most of the work. Kansas City is favored by 8.5 points, but I expect them to cover that without much trouble. With no receiving usage to boost his totals, Kelley will need to get in the end zone to return value. I don’t have a lot of faith that he scores one.

RB AJ Dillon, GB (Wk. 2: vs. Det.): Dillon was mostly an afterthought in the Packers’ offense in week one, finishing the game with just 5 offensive snaps and 2 carries for 14 yards. Head coach Matt LaFleur expressed an interest in getting him more involved in week two, and with Green Bay favored by nearly a touchdown there is some chance at some extra run late if the Packers get out in front of Detroit. I still wouldn’t expect him to be used much as a receiver, and the red zone work still belongs to Aaron Jones. Jones handled 3 of the team’s 4 carries inside the 10, and he also had 4 red zone targets. Dillon isn’t worth consideration for fantasy lineups this week unless you expect a blowout win for Green Bay.

WR Laviska Shenault, JAX (Wk. 2: @Ten.): Viska didn’t approach the 10 touches that I was hoping for in the opener. He only got halfway there but did cash in a touchdown. The Jaguars will clearly be a slow tempo offense again this year despite a change in head coach and offensive scheme. That is going to limit Shenault’s weekly upside. They’re going to be creative in getting the ball into his hands each week, but if he’s only handling 5 or 6 weekly touches it’s going to be hard for him to return value in weeks where he doesn’t get into the end zone. He’ll have weekly fantasy starter upside, but he’ll be hard to rely on until he jumps ahead of Keelan Cole on the depth chart. I’d leave him on the pine this week.

WR Bryan Edwards, LV (Wk. 2: vs. NO): Edwards’ stat line in week 1 left a LOT to be desired, as he pulled in just one pass on one target for 9 yards. What you may not know is that Edwards led the Raiders’ receivers with 75% of the snaps played. The targets are going to come. Edwards and Ruggs are clearly the top two receivers in Vegas and they’re going to make an effort to get Edwards more involved. This week could be a rough one though as Edwards may be squaring off with the Saints’ best corner Marshon Lattimore. Lattimore doesn’t follow the opposing number one receiver into the slot, and Ruggs played more than half of his snaps last weekend in the slot. That means plenty of snaps where he’ll be facing off with Edwards. We’ve already seen a week where the ball didn’t find Edwards very much, so I’d be hesitant to trust him this week in a tougher matchup.

WR Chase Claypool, PIT (Wk. 2: vs. Den.): Claypool is the WR4 in this offense, but Pittsburgh did look for ways to get him involved in week 1. He was targeted twice and also got a rushing attempt on a gadget play. With AJ Bouye out for Denver there should be plenty of opportunities for the Steelers’ receivers to produce, but Claypool’s limited snaps will make him a touchdown dart throw for the foreseeable future.

WR Michael Pittman, Jr., IND (Wk. 2: vs. Min.): I wouldn’t be panicking too much just yet if you drafted Pittman in a deep league, but it’s going to take him a few weeks to work his way into a useful role. He’s still running behind Zach Pascal for the WR3 role in the offense. He did play more than half of the offensive snaps but was targeted just twice and ended with 2 catches for 10 yards. There will be better days ahead, but you’ll need to see more from the rookie before giving him flex consideration.

WR Van Jefferson, LAR (Wk. 2: @Phi.): Reports out of Rams camp had Jefferson pegged to be the team WR3 ahead of Josh Reynolds, but it was pretty clear on Sunday night that they’ll share the role early on this season. Neither was a big target priority though, with Jefferson seeing 3 targets and Reynolds just 1 on Sunday night. There could be some sneaky upside for one of those guys this week with Darius Slay likely to be shadowing Robert Woods, but I’d look for Cooper Kupp and Tyler Higbee to be the bigger beneficiaries of the matchup. I’d hold off on trying my luck with Jefferson.

WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (Wk. 2: @Ind.): Jefferson and Bisi Johnson seemed to be on about the same footing in the WR pecking order for the Vikings in week 1, but they’re both still a distant second behind Adam Thielen. The Vikings were behind on the scoreboard for all but two of their offensive snaps Sunday, and they still threw only 25 times. This is going to be a run-heavy attack all year, and Jefferson is probably going to have to move clearly ahead of Bisi to be a weekly consideration for fantasy lineups. Keep him sidelined for now.

WR Devin Duvernay, BAL (Wk. 2: @Hou.): Duvernay played just 11 snaps in week one and is clearly behind Hollywood Brown, Miles Boykin and Willie Snead on the depth chart. Baltimore is favored by a touchdown and has a chance to pull away again and get some extra run for their backups, but that is more likely to help their backup running backs than Duvernay. Keep him benched this week.

WR John Hightower, PHI (Wk. 2: vs. LAR): Hightower played a healthy amount in week one, handling just 13 fewer snaps than Jalen Reagor’s team high 40, but he wasn’t used in ways that will give him fantasy value. He isn’t going to see a ton of targets, so he has to be used on deep balls to provide much value. In week 1, Hightower’s average target traveled just 8 yards in the air. I also expect DeSean Jackson and Reagor to see their snaps increase as they get closer to full strength. Hightower is a low-upside dart throw option this week unless something changes in his usage.

WR Tee Higgins, CIN (Wk. 2: @Cle.): Higgins was on the field for just 15 snaps with a big crowd of receivers in front of him on the depth chart. I don’t see a lot of reason why that will change in week 2 without injuries in front of him, and with the Bengals coming into this one with an implied total of 18.75 it’s hard to imagine him making a fantasy impact on so few snaps. Keep him sidelined in your lineups.

TE Cole Kmet, CHI (Wk. 2: vs. NYG): Kmet was targeted just once in the opener and served as the TE3 behind Jimmy Graham and Demetrius Harris. He’s nothing more than a long-shot weekly TD dart throw for now. The Bears are much more likely to look for Jimmy Graham in the red zone than Kmet.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Tua Tagovailoa, MIA (Wk. 2: vs. Buf.): I told you last week that if you’re in a 2-QB league you should be picking up Tua as your QB3 off the waiver wire, and after Ryan Fitzpatrick threw 3 interceptions in week one, I want to reiterate it. Fitzmagic will start again in week 2, but the Bills allowed the 3^rd-fewest QB points per game last year and picked up right where they left off in week 1. With another poor start by Fitzpatrick, it may be time for the Tua era to start in Miami. There could be some growing pains in his first couple starts if DeVante Parker is out, but he’s going be an asset in the back half of the season.

RB Antonio Gibson, WAS (Wk. 2: @Ari.): Gibson didn’t play nearly as much as I would’ve liked to see in week 1 and it was a bummer that the team didn’t try to use him at all as a slot receiver, but Gibson led the Washington Football Team’s running backs with 44 scrimmage yards on 11 touches. It was tough sledding against a very good Eagles’ run defense for all 3 backs. Aside from a 20-yard carry by Gibson, the top three backs combined for 28 carries and 43 yards. The matchup gets easier this week and Washington will undoubtedly look to get Gibson involved. He touched the ball on 11 of his 18 snaps a week ago. Peyton Barber will still be the best bet for a touchdown in this offense, but I like Gibson’s chance at a better performance this week than what he did in the opener. He’s worth looking at if you need a flex in really deep league.

RB Anthony McFarland, PIT (Wk. 2: vs. Den.): James Conner is questionable to play this week after leaving Monday night’s game with an ankle injury, which could open the door for McFarland to make his NFL debut this week. He was a healthy scratch last week with Conner, Benny Snell and Jaylen Samuels serving as the 3 active backs. If Conner sits, I’d expect Snell to handle a lot of the rushing load and Samuels to serve as the 3^rd down back, but I’d expect the Steelers the try and get the ball in the hands of the speedy McFarland a handful of times. The Broncos aren’t exactly an easy matchup, so McFarland is mostly just a shoot the moon sort of DFS play this week. If Conner plays, ignore all of this.

WR Quintez Cephus, DET (Wk. 2: @GB): Kenny Golladay looks likely to sit again this week, and Cephus saw a whopping TEN targets in the opener and played 79% of the offensive snaps. He only turned 3 of the targets into catches, but he clearly has some trust from Matt Stafford. He’ll avoid Jaire Alexander’s coverage this week, which makes him a nice play in a game where the Lions figure to be throwing a fair amount. The Packers are favored by 6. A repeat of the 10 targets might be asking a lot, but he’ll be involved enough to warrant flex consideration in deeper leagues, and his $3,800 DraftKings price tag could be a steal in DFS tournaments this week.

WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (Wk. 2: @Mia.): Davis is a guy you should be looking at if you’re in a dynasty league where he’s available. Buffalo’s offense looked different in week one. They played with a lot of tempo and played with a lot of receivers on the field. They went 4-wide on 20 of their offensive snaps. They had that many on the field for just 5 snaps in ALL of 2019. If this continues, Davis is going to be on the field a decent amount this year. He played more than 50% of the offensive snaps in week one, and while he’ll remain low on the target priority list for now, his high snap count is strong evidence that Davis is a part of Buffalo’s plans. He probably doesn’t belong on the waiver wire in most dynasty leagues.

WR Darnell Mooney, CHI (Wk. 2: vs. NYG): Mooney saw limited opportunity in the opener but made the most of his chances. He posted 3 catches for 38 yards on 3 targets in just 21 snaps. He’s already on equal footing with Javon Wims on the depth chart and is ahead of Riley Ridley. With the rumors that Allen Robinson may be on his way out of Chicago, now is the time to scoop up Mooney off the waiver wire, especially in dynasty formats. I can’t imagine Robinson is in Chicago beyond 2020, and if Mooney shows well he could be a big part of the Bears’ future plans at the position. Mooney didn’t put up gaudy receiving stats at Tulane, but he played in a low volume passing attack. He accounted for 41% of the team receiving yards as a junior in 2018 before seeing a dip last year.

TE Harrison Bryant, CLE (Wk. 2: vs. Cin.): New Cleveland head coach Kevin Stefanski clearly wants to recreate the offense he ran for the Vikings a year ago, and that means a ton of 2-tight end sets. Only the Eagles spent more time with two tight ends on the field than Minnesota did last year, and in week one only the Eagles played more snaps with two tight ends than the Browns did. David Njoku was placed on IR after the game and will miss at least the next 3 weeks. The Bengals coughed up 5 catches for 73 yards to Hunter Henry in the opener, and Bryant was a dynamic receiver in college who posted a 65-1004-7 line a year ago at FAU. With Austin Hooper around, it’ll be tough to trust Bryant in normal lineups this week, but he’ll cost the minimum in DFS and is a nice stash for dynasty leagues, two tight end leagues, and deeper TE-premium formats.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you make some tough lineup decisions involving rookies this week. Keep in mind that any players at the same position listed at under the same header are listed in the order that I would play them this week. Keep a close eye on the injury report and make sure you don’t end up playing an inactive player unexpectedly. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Hopefully your fantasy team came out of week 2 without a bunch of red letters next to players’ names. Last weekend was a bloodbath across the NFL as 4 players who may have been 1^st round picks in your fantasy draft left the week with injuries (CMC, Saquon, Davante Adams & Julio Jones), along with a host of others. If your fantasy team didn’t suffer major injuries, you came out of the week in pretty good shape. Some of these injuries are going to open the door for rookies to step into bigger roles in the immediate future, and I’m here to help you sort through what to do with your rookies in week 3. Let’s dive in…

Rookies to Start:

RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (Wk. 3: vs. NYJ): This one is a no-brainer. Taylor put the Colts’ offense on his back last Sunday against Minnesota, and he’s likely to do the same this week with Indy favored by double-digits. The Jets are much tougher against the run than they are against the pass, but volume alone should get Taylor where he needs to be. The Jets have allowed the 8^th-most RB points per game this season. He’s a locked in RB1 this week with top-5 potential. He’ll likely be a chalk play for DFS cash games even at his $7,000 DraftKings price tag.

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC (Wk. 3: @Bal.): This is not an ideal matchup for CEH. I mention him as a guy to start because you know the volume will be there. You likely drafted him in the first round, and there really aren’t any weeks to sit your first-round pick if he’s healthy. The Ravens allowed the 6^th-fewest RB points per game a season ago, and have allowed THE fewest so far in 2020. They also ranked 4^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat in 2019 (3^rd so far in 2020). Edwards-Helaire is more of a contrarian DFS play this week, but you have to run him out there in season-long leagues. Just know to temper your expectations a little bit.

RB Josh Kelley, LAC (Wk. 3: vs. Car.): Week 3 has a chance to be Kelley’s best week all year. There is no better matchup for a running back than the Carolina Panthers, and everything shapes up for Kelley to see at least 15 carries. The Panthers’ run defense is bad by any metric. They ranked dead last in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat in 2019 and rank 29^th so far in 2020. They also allowed the most RB fantasy points last year, and have allowed the most so far in 2020, and they’ve been surrendering rushing touchdowns at a ridiculous rate. Carolina has allowed 18 rushing touchdowns in their last 7 games dating back to last season, including 3 in each of the first two games this year. Kelley and Ekeler split the lead back role pretty evenly in week 2, and I didn’t see anything from Kelley that makes me think that will change this week. The rookie has a very solid floor in this one and has top-12 upside if he’s able to get in the end zone. He should probably be in your lineup if you have him.

RB James Robinson, JAX (Wk. 3: vs. Mia.): Everything is setting up for a breakout for Robinson on the national stage on Thursday night. The rookie has looked great through two weeks in average matchups. He’s the RB26 so far on the season in PPR scoring, and he’s looked even better than that ranking would suggest. He’ll face off with one of the worst run defenses in the league in week 3. The Dolphins have ranked in the bottom-4 in the league in run defense DVOA both last season and so far in 2020 and have given up 5.1 yards per carry on the ground so far this season. I expect Robinson to have a bit of a coming-out party on Thursday night and think a top-15 finish for the week is very possible.

WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Wk. 3: @Sea.): Lamb has wasted no time showing why the Cowboys were thrilled when he fell to them in the first round of the NFL draft. He’s clearly an integral part of the offense with 15 targets in the first two weeks. The Seahawks are 2-0, but they have a burnable secondary and have given up an insane 831 passing yards through two weeks. This is a spot to get all of the Cowboys’ pass-catchers into your lineup, especially after head coach Mike McCarthy told the media he has no intention to try and milk the clock to keep the ball away from Russell Wilson. This should be the most entertaining game of the week, and CeeDee Lamb should be a solid WR2 in it.

WR Laviska Shenault, JAX (Wk. 3: vs. Mia.): Along with James Robinson, Viska may also be in line for a big night. DJ Chark has been ruled out, leaving Shenault and Keelan Cole as the top 2 receivers. You may have 3 better options than Shenault on your team and not be able to find a place in your lineup for him, but he’s going to be a huge part of the game plan. The Jaguars will move him around enough to keep him away from Xavien Howard, and with Bryon Jones out that will put him in some mismatches in his favor. Shenault is an upside WR3 on Thursday night against a Miami secondary that let Josh Allen throw for 411 yards last week.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Joe Burrow, CIN (Wk. 3: @Phi.): Burrow had a very nice fantasy day last Thursday night against the Browns, but it could’ve been even better if he hadn’t been so hell-bent on forcing the ball to AJ Green all night. The Eagles’ secondary hasn’t been great so far this year ranking 27^th in pass defense DVOA, but the best member of that secondary, Darius Slay, should be shadowing Green. If Burrow can avoid tunnel vision with Green again, there is a chance at a respectable day. I wouldn’t be considering Burrow in 1-QB leagues and his outlook this week isn’t as rosy as his matchup with the Browns was, but he should be a low-end QB2 option with a very solid floor.

RB Antonio Gibson, WAS (Wk. 3: @Cle.): Gibson seems to have wrestled the starting job away from Peyton Barber in Washington, and with so many running backs injured right now you may be forced to play him. Just be aware this isn’t a great matchup and he’ll still cede some work to Barber and JD McKissic. The Washington offense as a whole isn’t a high-scoring unit and has an implied total of just 18.5 points this week. The Browns did give up two short yardage scores to JK Dobbins in week one, but have still allowed the 7^th-fewest RB points per game and rank 4^th in run defense DVOA. Gibson’s volume makes him an enticing flex option, but he’s far from an automatic start and not someone I would be using in DFS lineups this week.

RB D’Andre Swift, DET (Wk. 3: @Ari.): What a difference a week makes for the Lions’ backfield usage. In week one with the Lions leading most of the day, Adrian Peterson touched the ball 17 times while Swift handled just 6 touches. In week 2 with the team trailing Green Bay for most of the game, Swift out-touched Peterson 10-to-7. The key for Swift is that he’s been heavily involved in the passing game with 8 receptions on 10 targets through 2 weeks. The Lions are a 5.5-point underdog this week, so the usage should slant in Swift’s direction again, and Arizona has allowed scores each of the last two weeks to backs with similar skill-sets to Swift (Jerick McKinnon & Antonio Gibson). Swift is in play as a PPR flex option in a game where Detroit has an implied total of 24.5.

WR Jerry Jeudy, DEN (Wk. 3: vs. TB): The injury to Courtland Sutton moves Jeudy up to the top of the Broncos’ WR depth chart, and thanks to how much time he spends in the slot he’ll be able to avoid Tampa’s top CB Carlton Davis for most of this game. Jeudy lines up in the slot on about two-thirds of his snaps. No team allowed more points to opposing wide receivers than Tampa a year ago, and they allowed DJ Moore and Robby Anderson to each top 100 yards last week. Jeudy should be in line to see 7+ targets this week and is very much in the WR3 conversation in all formats.

WR Michael Pittman Jr., IND (Wk. 3: vs. NYJ): Pittman stands to be the biggest beneficiary of Parris Campbell’s trip to the IR. His snap share rose from 53% in week 1 up to 92% in week 2 with Campbell going down on his first touch of the game. Pittman should continue to be a full-time player at least until Campbell returns. This game figures to be a blowout where Indy will lean on Jonathan Taylor and the run game, but Pittman was targeted 6 times in a game that went that way last week. The Colts have an implied total of 27 points, and dating back to the start of last season, 66% of the offensive TDs the Jets have allowed have been through the air. At 6’4”, Pittman figures to be a factor in the red zone. If he gets 6+ targets in this one, he’ll have a great chance at finishing among the top-40 WRs and should outproduce his $4,000 price tag in DraftKings.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Justin Herbert, LAC (Wk. 3: vs. Car.): I think it’s very likely that Herbert has a better real game than fantasy game this week. As I laid out with Josh Kelley above, Carolina has been absolutely shredded on the ground since the start of last season, especially in the red zone. I’d expect a lot of Austin Ekeler and Josh Kelley in this game. The Chargers are a 6.5-point favorite in this one and Christian McCaffrey, the engine of the Panthers’ offense, is sidelined. It feels like the most likely outcome is that the Chargers get out in front and stay there. I’d probably view Herbert as no more than a low-end QB2 this week due to limited passing volume.

RB Zack Moss, BUF (Wk. 3: vs. LAR): In a typical week with so many top running backs out, I’d be telling you to consider a guy like Moss as a flex option. He’s seeing plenty of red zone usage on a surprisingly potent Bills offense that has an implied total of 25 points this week. Unfortunately, he’s also dealing with a toe injury that has him not practicing yet as of Thursday. I think even if Moss plays he’ll be less effective than usual. The Rams are not a run defense to be afraid of, but I’d lean against starting Moss this week even if he is able to suit up. He’ll probably need to find the end zone to return any value.

RB JK Dobbins, BAL (Wk. 3: vs. KC): I fell for the trap on Dobbins a little bit after his week 1 breakout game. I already believed in his talent coming into the season, but week 1 made me believe he’ll get enough usage to be start-able in fantasy. Week 2 threw a bit of a wet blanket on that. The snap share wasn’t drastically different from week 1 to 2, but the touches were. Dobbins handled 7 carries in week 1 including 2 carries from the 2-yard line that he cashed in for scores, but in week 2 he touched the ball just 3 times. He managed to avoid a complete dud of a week by breaking off a 44-yard run to set up kneel downs at the end of the game. Mark Ingram & Gus Edwards combined for 4 red zone carries to Dobbins’ zero in week 2. The Ravens have one of the highest implied totals of the week at 28.5, but if you play Dobbins you’re counting on him getting in the end zone. I’d avoid starting him this week unless you’re in a tough spot due to injuries. He could be a reasonable fall-back flex option if you’re waiting on a player like Davante Adams for Sunday night or Sammy Watkins Monday, but Tre’Quan Smith and Mecole Hardman are guys that are probably available in your leagues that I would prefer in those situations.

RB Cam Akers, LAR (Wk. 3: @Buf.): Akers seems like to a long-shot to play this week, and I’d expect that if he does suit up he’ll be mainly there as insurance in case something happens to Darrell Henderson. I’d expect Henderson to handle the bulk of the work. The Bills aren’t an impenetrable run defense, but they aren’t one to target either, allowing the 12^th fewest RB points per game so far this year (14^th-fewest last year).

WRs Henry Ruggs & Bryan Edwards, LV (Wk. 3: @NE): Ruggs and Edwards failed to do much last Monday in a game where the Raiders offense dominated possession, and this week they’ll face a Patriots’ secondary that is among the best in the league. Don’t be fooled by what the Seahawks did to them last week. Derek Carr continued to effectively lead his ‘death by a thousand paper cuts’ offense, dinking-and-dunking to Darren Waller and his running backs, and handing the ball to Josh Jacobs. The Patriots biggest personnel losses due to COVID opt-outs and players changing teams last offseason were in the defensive front 7. That’s the part of the defense that I’d expect the Raiders to attack. If Josh Jacobs sits, things get a little more interesting (he was held out of practice Thursday), but neither Ruggs nor Edwards would be more than a desperation flex play. I’d prefer Ruggs to Edwards this week if I had to choose one.

WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (Wk. 3: vs. Ten.): Jefferson has been on the field quite a bit in the first two weeks of the season, but the Vikings’ passing game has been a low-volume attack that runs through Adam Thielen. A third of all of Minnesota’s targets have gone to Thielen while Jefferson has been targeted just 6 times at an average depth of 8.8 yards downfield. Offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak talked about wanting to do a better job of getting the ball in his hands this week, but at that same presser said they need to run the football more. The Vikings already rank 31^st in the league in pass attempts DESPITE playing from behind on 79 of their 96 offensive snaps so far this year…and Kubiak wants to run more. The matchup isn’t terrible for Jefferson this week on paper. On any snaps in the slot  he should be lining up against 7^th-round rookie corner Chris Jackson (PFF grade of just 27.2 through two weeks), but the Minnesota passing game is fundamentally broken right now. I wouldn’t look at Jefferson as anything other than a low-priced DFS dart throw in a limited slate tournament.

WR Chase Claypool, PIT (Wk. 3: vs. Hou.): Claypool’s final stat line in week 2 was impressive, finishing with 17.8 PPR points, but almost all of it came on one long TD catch. Outside of an 84-yard score, he had just 2 catches for 4 yards and played a total of just 24 snaps. It’s clear the Steelers are trying to get him involved and are drawing up a couple of shot plays for him each week, but his limited playing time makes him a risky weekly option. Houston has been a bottom-10 pass defense in terms of DVOA since the start of last season and gave up 12 pass plays of 40+ yards in 2019 (T-7^th most in the league) but they haven’t given one up yet in 2020. Claypool is best left to DFS tournaments this week. The weekly floor is going to be below 5 PPR points until he moves up in the depth chart.

WR Van Jefferson, LAR (Wk. 3: @Buf.): Jefferson split the Rams’ WR3 snaps almost evenly with Josh Reynolds in week 1, but in week 2 he was out-snapped 42-to-26. That didn’t stop him from outproducing Reynolds with a 4-45 line on 5 targets (Reynolds went 2-33 on 2). Some of that target volume was undoubtedly the result of Robert Woods facing off with Darius Slay (Woods was targeted just 5 times), and although Woods gets another tough matchup this week in Tre’Davious White, it’ll be tough to rely on Jefferson unless he fully takes over the WR3 role. Jefferson doesn’t have a picnic of a matchup himself facing off with Levi Wallace, who was Pro Football Focus’s highest graded rookie cornerback a year ago. Cooper Kupp and Tyler Higbee are the Rams’ pass-catchers to target this week.

WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF (Wk. 3: @NYG): Aiyuk’s debut was mostly inauspicious. He played 72% of the team’s snaps but was targeted just 3 times and finished with 2 catches for 21 yards. The offense will look a bit different this week with Nick Mullens under center and the combo of Jerick McKinnon and Jeffrey Wilson Jr. splitting the backfield duties. George Kittle could be out again as well. I’d look for the Niners to have a conservative game plan, but it’s hard to know exactly what that will look like. I’d probably avoid any 49ers for your lineups this week aside from Kittle (if he plays), Jordan Reed (if Kittle doesn’t play), and the two running backs I mentioned. You can’t trust Aiyuk to have a useful fantasy day based on what we saw last week.

WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (Wk. 3: vs. LAR): Davis is playing more snaps than you would expect for a number 4 wide receiver, but it isn’t translating to targets yet. Josh Allen has thrown the ball 81 times for 729 yards and 6 scores through two weeks, but Davis has seen just 3 of those targets and turned them into 3-22-1. The matchup this week should involve Jalen Ramsey following Stefon Diggs all over the field, so it could result in a little bit more volume for everyone else, but it would take a pretty sizable bump in volume to make Davis anything more than a TD dart throw. He remains a guy worth stashing in dynasty leagues though.

WR John Hightower, PHI (Wk. 3: vs. Cin.): With the news that Jalen Reagor has a torn ligament in his thumb Wednesday, Hightower is once again worth mentioning this week. He played 40% of the snaps in week 1 with everyone healthy, but that was with both Reagor and DeSean Jackson being limited to little more than half of the offensive snaps each. Week 2 saw Jackson and Reagor both function as closer to full-time players and the rest of the receiver group fighting for scraps. With Reagor sidelined, I expect to still see a lot of Jackson, and aside from him a mix of JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Greg Ward & Hightower. With the Bengals likely to be without Geno Atkins & Mike Daniels at DT, look for Philly to play a lot of 2-TE sets and run the ball a ton. They’ll be eager to take a bit of the load off of Carson Wentz given how he’s played the first two weeks. For Hightower to return value this week, he’ll probably have to catch a deep ball or two, but his average target depth in week 1 was just 8 yards. I’d avoid him even as a bargain basement DFS play.

WR Quintez Cephus, DET (Wk. 3: @Ari.): Kenny Golladay practiced in full on Wednesday and should be good to go for this weekend’s tilt with the Cardinals. Cephus has been on the field more than 70% of the Lions’ snaps with Golladay out the first two weeks, but that number is going to drop drastically this week assuming Kenny G returns. Cephus has lined up in the slot on just 9 snaps. Danny Amendola will continue to serve as the team’s slot receiver with Golladay and Marvin Jones on the outside. Quintez will likely only see a handful of snaps and should be left out of any fantasy lineups this week.

TE Harrison Bryant, CLE (Wk. 3: vs. Was.): Bryant was on the field for more than 50% of the Browns’ offensive snaps last week and gets to face a Washington team that has allowed the 8^th-most tight end points per game so far, but he just isn’t seeing the ball come his way enough to be useful. He’ll do just enough to be annoying to people starting Austin Hooper. The Browns’ offense is too run-heavy right now to be targeting either tight end for fantasy.

TE Cole Kmet, CHI (Wk. 3: @Atl.): I’m sure you already know better on this one, but I wanted to make sure you know to not get cute just because the Falcons couldn’t defend Dalton Schultz last Sunday. Kmet is still the Bears #3 tight end, and he should be nowhere near your fantasy lineups.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, & Cheap DFS Options:

RB JaMycal Hasty, SF (Wk. 3: @NYG): Don’t throw Hasty into your lineups for week 3, but he’s an interesting guy to possibly scoop up in dynasty leagues with the injuries to Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman. Hasty is likely to be promoted from the practice squad for this game, and I’d expect him to see at least a few touches. If he manages to impress with those touches he could ascend the depth chart quickly and possibly have a useful week or two in this very running back-friendly offense. He’s a shifty back that can be more dynamic than Jeff Wilson. He’s a player to monitor in deep dynasty leagues if he gets the call-up.

WR Tee Higgins, CIN (Wk. 3: @Phi.): Higgins saw a huge jump in playing time in week 2 with Auden Tate a surprising healthy scratch. I’d expect that to be the case again this week, and he’ll get the most favorable matchup of the receivers. Tyler Boyd will get Nickell Robey-Coleman in the slot, and AJ Green is likely to face off with Darius Slay. Higgins meanwhile will tangle with Avante Maddox. Higgins posted 3-35 on 6 targets last week, and so long as Burrow doesn’t have tunnel vision for AJ Green again, I expect the rookie to exceed that easily. He costs just $3,900 on DraftKings.

WR KJ Hamler, DEN (Wk. 3: vs. TB): With the news that Courtland Sutton is out for the season, Hamler suddenly finds himself to be a much bigger part of Denver’s plans. He was an explosive playmaker in college, and new QB Jeff Driskel has shown flashes of Ryan Fitzpatrick’s YOLO style back when he was in Detroit. This week isn’t an ideal matchup for Hamler since he will likely see a lot of ascending star CB Carlton Davis (Jerry Jeudy has worked mostly from the slot and is likely to avoid Davis), but Driskel targeted Hamler 7 times last week after coming on in relief of Lock. Driskel averaged 8.2 intended yards per attempt last year, which would’ve put him in the top half of all QBs if he played enough to qualify, and he was at 12.4 intended yards per attempt on Sunday. Hamler is a bit of a shoot the moon option this week as a minimum-priced WR on DraftKings. He also shouldn’t be on your league’s waiver wire in 12-team leagues.

WR Darnell Mooney, CHI (Wk. 3: @Atl.): Mooney’s impressive week 1 performance did in fact lead to more playing time in week 2. The Bears were comfortable enough with Mooney that they made Ted Ginn a healthy scratch for week 2 and let Mooney play 60% of the offensive snaps. Atlanta is an inviting matchup for receivers. Both Atlanta games this season have turned into shootouts with over 700 yards of combined passing offense in each. I don’t know that Chicago has the firepower to make that 3 in a row, but I like Mooney’s chances at a surprisingly solid week. I’d expect him to have a season-high in catches and yards, and he’s a sneaky flex option for deep leagues and costs the minimum in DraftKings. 

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you make some of your tougher lineup decisions involving rookies. It’ll be especially important this week to keep an eye on the injury report. There are a lot of statuses still up in the air as of this writing. Make sure you’re vigilant enough that you don’t start any inactive players, and make sure that whoever you put in your flex spot is the player in your lineup who plays the latest game of the week at his position. You don’t want to stuck without a fallback if a player is a last minute scratch like Tyrod Tylor or James White (condolences to him and his family this week). Feel free to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

37 Completions

Thursday night, the Bengals unleashed their #1 overall pick in a prime-time game – though if you didn’t have NFL network handy, you struggled to find it. Broadcast rights aside, this Browns-Bengals matchup was better than it had any business being. In only his second game of his professional career, Joe Burrow attempted 61 passes, completing 37 of them for 316 yards and 3 TDs with zero interceptions. The 37 completions are a record for rookie passers. Now, perhaps, the Bengals would like to consider acquiring a defense so that their rookie’s arm doesn’t fall off by the end of the season.

50 years

Raheem Mostert, one of 49 (probably) players injured for San Francisco, recorded a feat that hasn’t been done in over 50 years. He became the first player in 50+ years to score a TD of 75+ yards in the first two weeks of a season. Last week, he had a 76-yard TD reception, and yesterday he opened the game with an 80-yard TD run where he was clocked at a blazing 23.09 MPH. Seriously. Get in your car and drive 23 mph and see if anyone could possibly keep up. Hell, Mostert would have been speeding on the street that I grew up on. Limited to only 10 touches since apparently injuries are more contagious than Covid-19 to the 49ers, Mostert still sits as this week’s RB14, and the RB4 on the season. Hopefully Mostert can stay on the field as he has the two fastest speeds clocked by ball carriers this season – and they’re the fastest regular season numbers since 2016.

75,000 Yards

Tom Brady became the second player, behind fellow quadragenarian Drew Brees, to reach the 75,000 passing yards mark. Brady has yet to really impress in a fantasy football sense this season, but he did lead his team to an impressive victory over the, admittedly lame, Carolina Panthers on Sunday. The question of whether Brady still “has it” is unresolved in my mind, but he does win games, so we can go ahead and give him credit for this one. He does need to stop throwing interceptions – that’s 4 games in a row including the playoffs last year. Nonetheless, we celebrate Brady’s 75,000 yards, a distance so damn far that it would take Raheem Mostert nearly 2 hours (111 minutes) running at full speed to cover all those passing yards. You can tack on another 17 minutes to include his playoff yardage.

60+ Fantasy Points

So far in this short season, 4 QBs are averaging 30+ fantasy points per game. Leading the pack is no surprise, it’s Russell Wilson, who has an amazing 82.5% completion rate to go with 9 passing TDs already. It’s the 3 players who also average 30+ per game that may have you surprised. In order, you have Josh Allen, Cam Newton and Kyler Murray. Between them they have 8 rushing TDs, obviously an invaluable asset to fantasy football QBs. Amazingly, Cam Newton has landed here with only 1 passing TD in 2 games so far this season.  Last year’s MVP, Lamar Jackson sits just outside the top 10, just a few points ahead of 2020 Rookie of the Beginning of the Year Joe Burrow.

43.6 Fantasy Points

Aaron Jones is insane. This is the note that was my placeholder and I really can’t start this section any better. Since the start of last year, he has 13 games over 15 points (and 2 more games of 14.8 points). Two of those games are over 40 points, 8 of those are 22+ points or better. On Sunday, Jones was everywhere. He carried the ball 18 times for 168 yards, good for a 9.3 yards per carry average. He found the end zone twice on the ground and once more through the air, where he added 4 catches for 68 yards. His performance in Week 2 was so dominant over all other RBs that the difference between Jones and the RB2, Nick Chubb, is an entire Raheem Mostert – 17.8 points! If you take the highest non-QB, non-Jones scorer in Week 2, Calvin Ridley, you would need to increase his output by 65% just to reach Aaron Jones’s performance. This guy is insane, and the Packers are really, really good this year.