Welcome back to the Rookie Report! For most of you…this week is the regular season finale. You should have a really good idea of what you need to do to make the playoffs if you’re fighting for a spot. If you need to win and make up some points, it might be worth taking some swings on some riskier plays. If you just need a win, I wouldn’t get too cute. Make sure you know what you need to do when setting your lineups. Each week there have been more and more rookies becoming fantasy relevant. It’s hard to imagine you’re in a matchup that doesn’t involve any rookies this week. Let’s dive in and look at what to expect this week…
Rookies to Start:
RB Saquon Barkley, NYG (Wk. 13: vs. Chi.): Of course you’re not going to sit Saquon in season-long leagues, but he isn’t exactly the chalk play in DFS cash games. Only New England, Detroit and Miami have managed to tally 20 RB points in a game against the Bears this season (all point totals and rankings are based on PPR scoring). The Bears have been a little vulnerable to receiving backs, allowing the 8th-most receptions to the position on the year, but they’ve given up fewer than 70 RB rushing yards in 8 out of 11 contests on the year. Double-digit points for Barkley are likely a given, but don’t count on a ceiling week from the rookie.
RB Phillip Lindsay, DEN (Wk. 13: @Cin.): How bad are the Bengals against running backs this year? They’ve been burned by both ground and air. Cincy has given up the 4th-most rushing yards and 5th-most TDs on the ground, and the 7th-most receiving yards and are tied for the most TDs allowed by air. They also rank 28th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. Lindsay has been one of the best fantasy backs in the league this year despite being underutilized, and he should be a locked in RB1 this week.
RB Nick Chubb, CLE (Wk. 13: @Hou.): The Texans are a tough matchup, ranking 2nd in run defense DVOA and allowing the 10th-fewest RB points per game, but Nick Chubb has been red hot since the coaching change in Cleveland. He’s averaged 26.6 points per game in the past 3 contests since the switch. You can’t sit a guy producing like that.
RB Gus Edwards, BAL (Wk. 13: @Atl.): The Falcons have been getting shredded by backs catching passes out of the backfield all year, and lately they’ve started getting beat up by them on the ground as well. Atlanta has given up 151 rushing yards per game to backs over the past 3 games, and they rank 29th in run defense DVOA. Edwards has exploded onto the scene in Baltimore, topping 100 yards on the ground in each of his first 2 outings while averaging a robust 5.8 yards per carry. He hasn’t done anything as a receiver, but he’s a solid RB2 this week in most formats, and a solid flex play even in PPR leagues. He did pop up on the injury report with a missed practice Wednesday, but it’s likely nothing. I’d expect him, to play. If he sits, Ty Montgomery is a sneaky play this week.
RB Josh Adams, PHI (Wk. 13: vs. Was.): Adams looks like he’s for real so far, and the Eagles appear to be treating him as their feature back. He carried the ball 22 times in week 12, and should be in store for a plenty more work this week. Washington has allowed more than 125 RB rush yards in 3 of their past 4 contests, and rank 26th in run defense DVOA. Adams looks like a strong RB2 option this week.
WR DJ Moore, CAR (Wk. 13: @TB): DJ Moore was a bit let down the last time he faced the Buccaneers, but I have faith that he doesn’t repeat that dud this time around. Both Devin Funchess and Curtis Samuel were held out of practice Wednesday with injuries. If both are out, Moore and Christian McCaffrey will likely be the beneficiaries. The Bucs have allowed the 4th-most WR points per game, and Moore has tallied 15-248-1 over the past 2 weeks. He should be a strong WR2 option this week.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Baker Mayfield, CLE (Wk. 13: @Hou.): The Texans allow just the 7th-fewest QB points per game, but Baker has been dealing since the regime change and Houston managed to let Marcus Mariota go 22/23 for 302 yards and 2 scores on Monday night. Mayfield has posted 13 touchdowns and just 2 turnovers in his past 5 starts. He’ll likely finish as a back-end QB1 this week in most leagues.
QB Lamar Jackson, BAL (Wk. 13: @Atl.): The Falcons’ banged up defense has been bad on all levels this season, and they’ve given up the 2nd-most QB points per game on the year. With no byes this week, Lamar’s lack of passing volume likely makes him a low-end QB1 at best this week, but his rushing upside makes him a fun streamer and DFS play.
RB Sony Michel, NE (Wk. 13 vs. Min.): Michel has been fantastic whenever he’s been healthy, but he gets a tough matchup this week. You should still probably start him if you’ve got him, but the Vikings rank 4th in run defense DVOA, have allowed just 3 RB rushing scores all year, and have coughed up 100 rushing yards to the position just once. Volume should carry Michel through, but he’s certainly not an ideal DFS cash game play.
RB Kerryon Johnson, DET (Wk. 13: vs. LAR): Johnson’s status is still very up in the air for this week. I’d struggle to sit him if he’s healthy. Kerryon has tallied 15+ fantasy points in 4 of his last 5 outings, but he could see his volume limited if he isn’t 100% this week. The Lions likely see no need to rush him back with their playoff hopes basically dead. The Rams do rank 29th in run defense DVOA, so there is upside for Kerryon to be a solid flex play, but the Rams are heavy favorites and will probably force Detroit into a negative game script. Make sure you have a backup plan if you’re counting on Kerryon.
WR Calvin Ridley, ATL (Wk. 13: vs. Bal.): Ridley has been a TD or bust option most weeks. He found the end zone and had a big game last week, but this week’s matchup is the polar opposite of what he faced in week 12. The Saints allow the most WR points per game, and the Ravens allow the 3rd-fewest per game, and have allowed just 5 WR touchdowns in their past 9 games. Ridley is still in play as a viable WR3 option, but you’ll likely be disappointed if he doesn’t find the end zone.
WR KekeCoutee, HOU (Wk. 13: vs. Cle.): DeAndre Hopkins has been the only sure thing in this passing game since the trade for Demaryius Thomas. There is upside with the Browns allowing the 7th-most WR points per game, but the addition of DT and the recent emergence of Lamar Miller’s running game have made Coutee a dicey weekly flex option.
WR Anthony Miller, CHI (Wk. 13: @NYG): We’ve seen the upside with Miler over the past few weeks, but the Bears seem to feature a different receiver each week and Mitch Trubisky may be out again. I like Miller more if Trubisky plays, but it feels like each week one of Miller or Taylor Gabriel will be targeted 7+ times. The trick is guessing which one it will be. The Giants allow the 9th-fewest WR points per game. Playing Miller outside of really deep leagues is a roll of the dice this week.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Josh Allen, BUF (Wk. 13: @Mia.): Allen has only managed to be productive when he’s been able to do damage with his legs, and only 5 teams have allowed fewer QB rushing yards than the Miami Dolphins. The Bills threw just 19 times in a competitive game in week 12, and they’d prefer to stay in that range most weeks. Allen does seem to have his best games when least expected (against Minnesota and Jacksonville), but It would be a pretty big risk to try him this week outside of deep 2-QB leagues.
QB Josh Rosen, ARI (Wk. 13: @GB): The Packers’ defense hasn’t been great, but Rosen has remained a low-volume passer even in matchups where they’ve been way behind. Green Bay doesn’t give up a lot of passing yards either. Only Kirk Cousins has thrown for 300 or more yards against the Pack, and they’ve allowed an average of less than 225 yards per game to all the other QBs they’ve faced. Even if he throws for 2 scores, Rosen is likely no better than a mid-level QB2.
QB Sam Darnold, NYJ (Wk. 13: @Ten.): It’s likely that Darnold will stay sidelined this week. If he does play, the Titans’ pass defense isn’t anything to fear but Darnold has averaged just 8.2 points per game in his 5 road starts. He hasn’t topped 13.8 in any of them. Stay away.
RB Ito Smith, ATL (Wk. 13: vs. Bal.): In the last 3 weeks, Ito has posted just 14 carries for 21 yards and 8 catches for 34, and zero total TDs. The Ravens allow the 2nd-fewest RB points per game. There is no reason to have any faith in Ito this week.
RBs Nyheim Hines & Jordan Wilkins, IND (Wk. 13: @Jax.): Both rookies were a little more involved last weekend than they’ve been in a while, but they still combined for just 11.2 fantasy points on 14 touches. The Jaguars allow the fewest RB fantasy points per game.
WR Tre’Quan Smith, NO (Wk. 13: @Dal.): Tre’Quan seems likely to play this Thursday, but I feel a big game coming for the Saints’ usual suspects (Thomas, Kamara, and Ingram) after Brees threw TDs to everyone else last week. The Cowboys do try to shorten the game with a ball control offense, and that’s helped them allow the 2nd-fewest WR fantasy points in the league so far. Smith still has big upside as the WR2 in this offense, but we’ve seen low-floor weeks from him before, and I have a hunch we see another this week. I’d still play Smith over any other receiver listed in the ‘Rookies to Sit’ section.
WR Christian Kirk, ARI (Wk. 13: @GB): As mentioned above, this probably won’t be a big week for Josh Rosen. That doesn’t mean that Kirk can’t have a productive week. The Packers do allow the 6th-most WR points per game. I’d just prefer to play a receiver in a higher upside offense this week.
WRs Marquez Valdes-Scantling & Equanimeous St. Brown, GB (Wk. 13: vs. Ari.): Both receivers are no more than a DFS dart throw this week. St. Brown appears to have moved ahead of MVS on the depth chart for the time being, but I’m not confident that it will continue this week. Both are risky plays in a game that could be over early on. The Packers are 2-touchdown favorites and could be running a lot.
WR Antonio Callaway, CLE (Wk. 13: @Hou.): Callaway’s efficiency has been much better of late after some early season struggles. He’s grabbed 14 receptions on 18 targets in the past 4 games after grabbing just 16 on 42 targets prior to that. He still isn’t seeing enough volume to be productive without a TD, and the Texans have allowed just 1 receiver score in the past 5 games.
WR Courtland Sutton, DEN (Wk. 13: @Cin.): Sutton has flashed big upside at times, but he’s yet to catch more than 3 passes in a game or reach 11 fantasy points. You can’t trust that kind of track record with your season on the line.
WR Trey Quinn, WAS (Wk. 13: @Phi.): Quinn has shown a nice PPR floor with Colt McCoy at QB, and the Eagles have allowed the 2nd-most WR points per game so far, but they’ve been burned by perimeter receivers, not slot guys. With a full slate of games this week, there are likely better options available.
WR Michael Gallup, DAL (Wk. 13: vs. NO): The Saints allow the most WR points per game, but don’t be fooled into thinking Gallup is a sneaky DFS dart throw in this matchup. The Saints have been carved up by number 1 receivers, and in the 3 games since the Amari Cooper trade Gallup has 6 catches for 53 yards on 14 targets.
WR Auden Tate, CIN (Wk. 13: vs. Den.): Tate came out of nowhere last week with 7(!) targets, but he caught just 2 of them for 15 targets. There may be some rapport with new starter Jeff Driskel, but Tate will likely struggle to get on the field with AJ Green back healthy.
TE Chris Herndon, NYJ (Wk. 13: @Ten.): Herndon has become a big part of the Jets’ passing attack, but the Titans have allowed no more than 5 catches and 52 receiving yards to any TE group other than the Eagles and Zach Ertz. They haven’t allowed a tight end score all season. Herndon likely needs to be the first one to find the end zone for a productive week.
TE Dallas Goedert, PHI (Wk. 13: vs. Was.): Washington has given up just 3 tight end scores on the year, and no tight end group has made it to 55 receiving yards. Even Ertz may struggle here. Goedert is just a TD dart throw that isn’t likely to hit.
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
RB Royce Freeman, DEN (Wk. 13: @Cin.): The Broncos may finally have a game where they are playing from ahead with the Bengals rolling with Jeff Driskel at QB. That could give Freeman some extra run in garbage time against one of the worst RB defenses in the NFL. He’s got a better than average chance at a TD this week.
RB Rashaad Penny, SEA (Wk. 13: vs. SF): Penny is only an option in DFS tournaments. The Seahawks love to run the ball when they can, and they’re favored by double-digits against the 49ers. Chris Carson is still the lead back, but one of Penny or Mike Davis is likely to have a solid fantasy day in mop-up duty. The hard part will be guessing which one.
RB Justin Jackson, LAC (Wk. 13: @Pit.): Melvin Gordon will be out multiple weeks after aggravating an injury against the Cardinals. I can’t say I understand why the Chargers played Gordon in a week they were likely to win by multiple scores without him, but it’s happened now. Austin Ekeler should be the lead back in his absence, but Justin Jackson will certainly get some extended run as well. He’s worth a stash in deep leagues. He flashed in garbage time last week with 7 carries for 57 yards against the Cardinals. This week’s matchup is tough, but it bears watching to see how Jackson is used since Gordon could be out up to 4 weeks.
WRs Dante Pettis & Richie James, SF (Wk. 13: @Sea.): Marquise Goodwin is still not with the team as of Wednesday dealing with a personal matter, and Pierre Garcon was limited in practice Wednesday and is still no sure bet to play. Mullens has given the 49ers at least a respectable passing game, and the Seahawks’ defense has been middling against WRs. Pettis posted 7 targets a week ago, and could have a similar target share this week if both Goodwin and Garcon are out. James played more snaps that a healthy Trent Taylor for the first time all year. Both he and Pettis are trending up this week. James is more of a stash at this point, but Pettis has real DFS upside if the top 2 WRs are out.
WR Robert Foster, BUF (Wk. 13: @Mia.): Foster is a boom-or-bust option in a lackluster passing attack, but one that has boomed in back-to-back weeks. He’s posted 5-199-1 in the past 2 games, and while he isn’t likely to repeat that production this week, only 3 teams have allowed more than the 9 passes of 40+ yards that the Dolphins have surrendered. With Josh Allen’s big arm, Foster has a chance to post a run similar to the one former Rams’ receiver Chris Givens went on as a rookie back in 2012 where he caught a 50-plus yard pass in 5 straight games.
WR Marcell Ateman, OAK (Wk. 13: vs. KC): Ateman didn’t produce last week, but he saw a ridiculous 10(!) targets. Jordy Nelson is practicing and looks likely to play this week, but the Raiders don’t have a lot of reason to keep featuring the old guys. I’d expect Ateman to continue to see a decent number of targets. Kansas City is just a middling defense against WRs. Ateman should have upside in DFS tournaments this week if the targets keep up.
TE Dan Arnold, NO (Wk. 13: @Dal.): Arnold has slowly started to make an impact for the Saints, and he is starting to look like the successor to Ben Watson as the TE of the future. He won’t get many years of Brees, but he’s still an intriguing dynasty stash. He’s a converted WR who has plenty of upside. Arnold is also a sneaky DFS play this week against a Dallas team that has given up 28-339-3 to TEs in the past 3 weeks.
TE Mark Andrews, BAL (Wk. 13: @Atl.): Hayden Hurst led the Ravens’ tight end group with 4 targets last Sunday, and Andrews had just one, but Andrews is the one I’d take a shot on this week if you’re digging deep for a TE sleeper. Andrews is the best vertical threat the Ravens have at the position, and vertical TEs have given the Falcons and their banged up safety group trouble. They’ve given up solid games to Vernon Davis (5-62), Dan Arnold (4-45-1), OJ Howard (4-62-1) and Ben Watson (5-71).
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with some of your tougher lineup decisions involving rookies in this critical week. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week, and make sure to check for any surprise inactives on Sunday. You’d hate to miss the playoffs because you take an unnecessary zero. If you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to reach out on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
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