Welcome back to the Rookie Report! In case you didn't know it, the NFL Draft is almost upon us. We can finally put all of the mock drafts and misdirection by NFL front offices behind us over the next couple days. We will be able to quit guessing who is going where and start assessing how the new pieces fit with their new teams, but we're not quite there yet. So, I wanted to take a stab at picking my favorite landing spots for each of the top backs in the draft before it's too late. Mind you, these landing spots ARE NOT predictions for where the players will be drafted. They're merely my thoughts on what the best landing spots are for all of the backs to maximize scheme fit, career development, and fantasy upside. One other quick note: view this list as a complete picture rather than just looking at each player individually. For example, it's possible you think the Colts' RB job is the best available spot, and therefore it could be the best fit for 3 or 4 of the backs on the list. I'm only listing one back for each spot, so if I think the best fit in Indy is Nick Chubb, that means the starting job in Indy is crossed off the list for everyone else. With that in mind, let's dive into my favorite landing spots for the top RBs in the 2018 draft:
(Player, College - Favorite Landing Spot)
Nick Chubb, Georgia - Indianapolis Colts: Since I already gave this one away in the intro, I figure I may as well start here. Chubb is a special talent who could be a three-down back at the NFL level, and the Colts have a glaring need at the position. Indy's lack of receiving talent aside from TY Hilton will allow teams to stack the box at times, and Chubb is a more physical runner between the tackles than Saquon Barkley. He's a huge upgrade over Frank Gore who had the role last year, while also playing with a similar style to Gore. I believe Chubb will be a capable receiver at the NFL level, but if he falters in that part of his game the Colts will have a built-in fallback in Marlon Mack that they can use on 3rd downs. If Andrew Luck comes back healthy, Chubb's running ability would give the Colts the balance to be one of the most dynamic offenses in the league.
Saquon Barkley, Penn State - Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Bucs would be ecstatic if Barkley managed to fall to them at pick 7. That's extremely unlikely to happen with the Browns, Giants, Colts and Jets all picking ahead of them. Despite that, I think Tampa is the place where Barkley would shine the brightest. Head coach Dirk Koetter runs a vertical passing scheme and has plenty of deep threat weapons in Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson and OJ Howard. The deep passing threat will open up plenty of room for Barkley to operate both as a runner and a receiver. Despite his 233-pound frame and the 29 bench press reps he put up at the combine, Barkley does his best work in space rather than banging between the tackles. He'd have plenty of space to operate in Tampa's system. He also has the prerequisite pass protection skills necessary for a running back in a scheme like this one. The last time Koetter had a fully healthy three-down back was 2015, when Doug Martin totaled nearly 1,700 scrimmage yards and 7 TDs. Saquon is a much better receiver than Martin. He'd have legitimate top-5 RB upside in year 1 if he ended up in Tampa.
Derrius Guice, LSU - Cleveland Browns: Like Nick Chubb, Guice wasn't used a lot as a receiver in college, so there are some questions about whether or not he can be a true three-down back in the NFL. I think he can be, but like the Colts the Browns have a built-in answer to those questions in Duke Johnson. Guice is a physical runner who could very well wind up being the best back in this class, and Cleveland won't have to take him in the top four picks of the draft to get him.
Sony Michel, Georgia - Detroit Lions: The run game has been a problem in Detroit for a long time. They've had just one back break 1,000 rushing yards in a season since 2004 (Reggie Bush in 2013 with 1,006 yards). It's time to fix the problem, and Michel may be the way to do it. Part of the issue is that the Lions haven't had a true three-down back since maybe Kevin Jones (the back who broke 1,000 yards in '04). They've utilized a pass-first offense for most of the time that Matt Stafford has been the QB, so they've focused on getting running backs who are adept receivers. They've had guys like Reggie Bush, and Ameer Abdullah, and Theo Riddick, and Jahvid Best. The thing about Michel is that he is an adept receiver (one of the best in this class), but also an excellent runner, even between the tackles despite a slight frame for a feature back. Anyone who watched him run against Alabama in the National Championship could regale you with stories of his skill as an inside runner. He could have just the right combination of skills to finally give the Lions the feature back they've been seeking for over a decade.
Rashaad Penny, San Diego State - Denver Broncos: Denver is in need of a feature back, and Penny certainly checks most of the boxes you look for. He's big enough, fast enough, and a skilled receiver that can challenge the defense downfield. Denver was long known for the zone blocking scheme in the run game from the Mike Shanahan and Gary Kubiak days, but they have switched to a gap blocking scheme in more recent years, and this scheme is a much better fit for Penny. The one area of his game that could trip Penny up is his pass protection. If he struggles with this early on, it could keep him off the field. If he is able to improve that part of his game quickly, he could be a big-time producer in year one in Denver.
Ronald Jones, USC - New York Jets: Jones has the speed to be the home run threat the Jets currently lack at RB. We know by now that Isaiah Crowell is no more than just an average starter, and Bilal Powell has failed for years to win the featured role. RoJo is a dangerous runner who can put pressure on the edges of the defense to contain him. One question with Jones is his ability as a receiver. He wasn't asked to catch the ball much at USC, so it remains to be seen how good his skill set as a receiver is. If he shows skill as a pass catcher early on, his upside could be huge.
Royce Freeman, Oregon - Washington Redskins: At the very least, Washington needs an upgrade to their early down running game, and Freeman would provide an upgrade over Samaje Perine and Rob Kelley. Washington loves what Chris Thompson brings as a 3rd-down back, so Freeman would likely start out with just early-down work, but he catches the ball well enough to eventually establish himself as the every down guy. He'd have monster upside in year one if he landed in Washington and something happened to Thompson.
Bo Scarbrough, Alabama - Carolina Panthers: Christian McCaffrey's performance last year made it clear that it would be an uphill battle for him to ever become a workhorse back in the NFL. He averaged just 3.7 yards per carry while splitting time with Jonathan Stewart. He needs to be complemented by a power runner. The Panthers spent the 8th overall pick in the draft last year on CMC, so there is no way they would invest the kind of draft capital it would require to land a Guice, Chubb, or even a Royce Freeman to find that power back. Enter Bo Scarbrough. Bo is viewed as a one-dimensional sledgehammer of a runner, but he surprised in a big way with his athletic testing at the combine, showing explosion with a 40" vertical and 10'9" broad jump. Bo is exactly the type of player the Panthers need, and they can get him at a price that makes sense for them.
Kerryon Johnson, Auburn - Miami Dolphins: Johnson's skill as a physical runner isn't that far behind that of Nick Chubb and Derrius Guice. Kenyan Drake doesn't profile as a lead back at his size, and Frank Gore likely has just one more NFL season left in him. Gore would be a great mentor to help Johnson learn the nuance of playing the RB position in the NFL, and Drake and Kerryon would make a formidable tandem by late in 2018 or the start of the 2019 season.
Kalen Ballage, Arizona State - San Francisco 49ers: Ballage is one of the most unique prospects in this class. He has the size, speed and strength to be a special runner, but he really struggles with vision and patience, and doesn't always run with the power that he should. He's also one of the best receiving backs in this class. The 49ers are the team I think is best suited to take advantage of his skills. They don't have a back of Ballage's size that they can use as a goal-line and short yardage back, and Ballage is good enough as a receiver for the 49ers to use him in those spots and still be creative and unpredictable. If he ever develops as a runner, he also might be able to unseat Jerick McKinnon as the starter down the road.
Nyheim Hines, NC State - Philadelphia Eagles: It looks like Darren Sproles will be calling it a career, and even if he isn't, he's no longer under contract with the Eagles. The Eagles have an interesting group of RBs with Jay Ajayi, Corey Clement and Wendell Smallwood, but none of those guys have the game-breaking speed that Hines does. Hines isn't going to step in as a major part of the offense anywhere as a rookie, but the Eagles have innovative enough coaches to find ways to get his speed involved, and his role will grow if he has early success.
John Kelly, Tennessee - New York Giants: Most NYG fans are expecting the team to land Saquon Barkley with the second pick, but if you read my QB landing spot piece prior to this, you know I think Josh Rosen should be the pick there. I really like Kelly as a RB alternative for the Giants. Kelly's a violent runner with agility, and he's also an adept receiver who excels in the screen game. He's also sound in pass protection, which is important since both Eli Manning and Josh Rosen aren't very mobile. He could stand to be a little more explosive, but I think the team that lands Kelly will be pleasantly surprised.
Mark Walton, Miami (FL) - Arizona Cardinals: Walton was used as a feature back in college at Miami, but that will never be his role in the NFL. He's much more likely to be utilized as a 3rd-down back at the NFL level. I like Arizona as a landing spot because he'll be able to see the field a bit spelling David Johnson early on, and he won't have the pressure of being a key cog in the offense before he's ready. He'd also benefit a lot from having Johnson around to learn from. Walton has some upside, but he's more likely to realize his potential if he's not thrust into a big role right away.
Justin Jackson, Northwestern - Pittsburgh Steelers: Jackson would be a fantastic choice as Le'Veon Bell insurance. Bell and the Steelers still haven't hammered out a long-term extension, and with his current salary and asking price, the Steelers may choose to move on from Bell after the 2018 season. Jackson is one of the most underrated backs in this class. He won't cost too high of a pick for Pittsburgh, but has a chance to be a feature back with the playing style of Jamaal Charles. Jackson has shown that he can handle the rigors of a workhorse role despite not being a bigger back. He was an ultra-productive 4-year starter at Northwestern, tallying 1,388 scrimmage yards as a freshman, and at least 1,500 in each of his 3 other seasons. He will surprise if he gets the opportunity.
Akrum Wadley, Iowa - Buffalo Bills: The Bills already have LeSean McCoy and Chris Ivory, but Wadley would be a different style player than either of those guys. The Bills may be playing catch-up in the second half of games quite a bit this season, and Wadley would be a better option to spell Shady McCoy in those situations due to his receiving ability. He would also be a good complementary back to Ivory if anything happened to McCoy. Shady will be turning 30 this upcoming season and has just 2 years left on his current deal, so there is more upside for Wadley's role to grow once McCoy is gone.
Chase Edmonds, Fordham - New England Patriots: Edmonds might be able to step in and serve as the Dion Lewis replacement pretty early on in his career. I don't think he'd play as big a role this year as Lewis did last season, but he excels in some of the same areas. Edmonds isn't quite as elusive as Lewis, but he's still a shifty undersized back who can be a dangerous receiver out of the backfield. No team does a better job finding bargain RBs than the Patriots, and Edmonds would fit that mold as a day 3 draft pick. I'd expect Rex Burkhead to be the most productive Patriot running back this season, but Edmonds could certainly carve out a useful role that could help fantasy teams.
Chris Warren, Texas - Houston Texans: It's been rumored that Donta' Foreman won't be healthy to start the year and may have to open the season on the PUP list. If that's the case, Warren could be a valuable complement to Lamar Miller during the early part of the season. Warren is a very different player than his dad was (former Seahawks' back of the same name). He runs with effortless power and will bulldoze defenders in the open field. He converted to tight end late last season, but that was more because of his prowess as a blocker than receiving skill. I think his best position in the NFL will be running back. There are questions about his vision and acceleration, but his 20-yard shuttle and 3-cone drills at the combine were impressive even if he were 20-30 pounds lighter. If Warren lands with Houston and impresses while Foreman is out, it might be hard for the coaching staff to make him step aside once Foreman returns.
That's all I've got on the running back class until after the draft. If any of the players above do land on the team I've matched them with, that will likely be a good thing for both the player and the team. I did try to at least impart a little bit of knowledge about what type of back each player is. If you disagree with anything written above, don't hesitate to reach out via twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). I'm always up for a spirited debate. In the meantime, keep an eye out for my WR and TE landing spot articles that should be posted Thursday afternoon. Enjoy the draft!
Here's looking at you, James White! With Green Bay, Oakland, Pittsburgh, and Seattle off on bye this week, there are quite a few playmakers missing from your usual lineup. Thankfully, fill-ins are still pretty widespread and there are a ton of surging players such as Nick Chubb (after Carlos Hyde was traded to the Jags and won't be starting this week), and Tyler Boyd (showing up this season and entering fantasy lineups after a great week 6 performance). Good luck in Week 7 and remember, you can tweet us @drinkfive with any of your lineup questions!
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve made it past the halfway point of the regular season. By now you should have a pretty good idea of where your team stands. Are you a contender? Or are you just hoping to squeak into the playoffs and hope for the best? This is the time of year when unlikely players start to make waves due to injuries and attrition, and a lot of the time those unlikely fantasy heroes are rookies. The Carlos Hyde trade has put another rookie on the map as Nick Chubb becomes the every-week starter in Cleveland. Peyton Barber’s injury may have opened up more playing time for Ronald Jones II. Ted Ginn’s trip to IR could pave the way for Tre’Quan Smith to be a stud down the stretch. I’m sure there will be others as well. Let’s take a look at what to expect from the rookie crop in week 8…
Rookies to Start:
RB Saquon Barkley, NYG (Wk. 8: vs. Was.): Of course you’re going to start Barkley in all season-long formats this week. He’s been the number 2 fantasy RB this season (all scoring and rankings referenced are in PPR format), but this may not be the best week to fire him up in DFS tournaments. Saquon did finish as the RB5 in his first game without 100 scrimmage yards, but Washington has allowed the 10th fewest RB points per game this year and ranks 4th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA stat on throws to opposing backs. While Saquon is capable of overcoming a less than tempting matchup, he’s not the chalk DFS play this week.
RB Kerryon Johnson, DET (Wk. 8: vs. Sea.): Kerryon put on a show last Sunday in Miami, but until Matt Patricia and the Lions realize that LeGarrette Blount shouldn’t be getting 10 carries per game, Johnson will remain a boom-or-bust RB2 option each week. After the monster rushing game Kerryon posted in week 7, I’m optimistic Detroit will start to unleash him a bit more. He does get a decent matchup against a middling Seattle run defense. The Seahawks rank 15th at limiting opposing RB points on a per game basis, and rank 12th in run defense DVOA. It would be hard to sit him after what he did last weekend even if it is a bit of point chasing.
RB Phillip Lindsay, DEN (Wk. 8: @KC): Lindsay could be poised for a big game if teammate and fellow rookie Royce Freeman is unable to suit up this week, which seems a likely scenario. The Chiefs allow the 2nd-most RB points per game and rank dead last in run defense DVOA. Even if Freeman plays, the game script will likely be to Lindsay’s advantage with Kansas City a 10-point favorite. I like Lindsay as a solid RB2 this week, and he has legit RB1 upside if Freeman’s high-ankle sprain keeps him sidelined.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Baker Mayfield, CLE (Wk. 8: @Pit.): The Steelers have been playing better pass defense of late, but they still rank just 20th in pass defense DVOA on the season. Mayfield has been a bit turnover prone since taking the starting gig, but he’s still finished as the QB15, QB21 and QB6 in the past 3 weeks. He’ll be a borderline QB2 in super-flex and 2 quarterback leagues once again in this one.
RB Nick Chubb, CLE (Wk. 8: @Pit.): Chubb’s increased role should make him a sure-fire starter in most formats, but the matchup this week is a tough one. The Steelers allow the 2nd-fewest RB fantasy points per game, and the Steelers are a touchdown favorite. If game-script keeps the Browns throwing, it’ll be Duke Johnson who benefits most in the Cleveland backfield. The Steelers are the only team in the league that hasn’t allowed an opposing backfield to get to 20 PPR points in a game all year.
RB Royce Freeman, DEN (Wk. 8: @KC): As mentioned above with Phillip Lindsay, Freeman is nursing an ankle injury that may sideline him in a prime matchup. If he’s able to play, he’ll be an intriguing flex option against the team that ranks 32nd in run defense DVOA, but game script won’t play in his favor with Denver a heavy underdog. Keep a close eye on the injury updates Sunday to confirm he’s active if you’re considering starting Royce.
WR Christian Kirk, ARI (Wk. 8: vs. SF): Kirk remains a decent flex option for deeper leagues this week. He’s averaging 4.6 catches and 66.4 receiving yards per game in his past 5, and he posted 3-85-1 in the first meeting with San Francisco. He’s clearly Josh Rosen’s favorite target in the passing game, and the 49ers rank 23rd in pass defense DVOA.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Josh Rosen, ARI (Wk. 8: vs. SF): Rosen is one of just 2 quarterbacks all year to finish lower than QB13 when facing the 49ers. The matchup is good, and I’m confident Rosen will eventually get things together, but you just can’t bank on a productive game from Rosen in any matchup. He’s no more than a QB2 in a league where you have no other options.
QB Sam Darnold, NYJ (Wk. 9: @Chi.): Darnold hasn’t shown enough upside consistently to be trusted in any format this week. You could roll the dice in a 2-QB league, but Darnold and the Jets average the 6th-fewest passing yards and the 4th-lowest QB rating in the league. The Bears’ defense has been one of the league’s best. Chicago ranks 5th in pass defense DVOA and have are in the top-10 in the league at limiting QB rating.
RB Sony Michel, NE (Wk. 8: @Buf.): This would be a great spot to use Michel if he were fully healthy. The Patriots are a 2-touchdown favorite and the Bills are allowing the 9th-most RB points per game. Sony seems to have avoided any sort of serious damage despite his injury looking bad when it happened, but I’d still be surprised if he were able to play this week. Even if he does, I’d expect his work to be limited since the Pats probably won’t need him to get a win this week. Michel will play a big role down the stretch, and I don’t think New England wants to risk his health in a game they should win easily.
RBs Nyheim Hines & Jordan Wilkins, IND (Wk. 8: @Oak.): With Marlon Mack storming onto the scene over the last two weeks, Hines and Wilkins have taken a back seat. They did see some work late in a blowout win over Jacksonville last week, but Mack appears to be the clear lead back for now. Hines does have some upside in deep PPR leagues, but his pass-catching role has been diminished lately. He averaged nearly 6 catches per game in the first 5 weeks, and has just 3 total receptions in the past 2.
RB Ronald Jones II, TB (Wk. 8: @Cin.): Even if Barber does sit the week out, the Buccaneers have struggled mightily to run the ball, and RoJo likely will have to contend with Jacquizz Rodgers for 3rd-down work. Jones has averaged fewer than 3 yards per carry for the season, and Barber wasn’t much better with less than 3.5 per carry.
WR DJ Moore, CAR (Wk. 8: vs. Bal.): Moore is still just a secondary option for the Panthers’ offense, and Baltimore has allowed the 3rd-fewest WR points per game. DJ has been more involved lately, but this isn’t the best week to roll the dice on a spike in production.
WRs Marquez Valdes-Scantling & Equanimeous St. Brown, GB (Wk. 8: @LAR): With Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison both on track to play this week, the pair of rookie receivers should be relegated to backup duty once again. Valdes-Scantling does have WR3 upside this week if either Cobb or Allison sits again.
WR DJ Chark, JAX (Wk. 8: vs. Phi.): Chark got a bit more run last Sunday than we’ve seen from him this year, but that came in a blowout loss to the Colts. It also likely helped Chark that the team turned to fellow second-stringer Cody Kessler at QB during the game. The Eagles are a vulnerable pass defense, but I’d still expect Chark to go back to his normal bench role. DJ is a shoot the moon DFS tournament play at best.
TE Dallas Goedert, PHI (Wk. 8: @Jax.): Goedert had a strong showing in week 6 with a 4-43-1 line, but I wouldn’t expect a repeat performance with the Jaguars allowing the 2nd-fewest TE points per game. With Ertz at the top of the target pecking order, there won’t be enough to go around for Goedert in this one.
TE Mike Gesicki, MIA (Wk. 8: @Hou.): Gesicki had a reasonable performance in week 6 with a 3-44 line. He out-produced Nick O’Leary in the game, but played just 16 offensive snaps compared to 39 for O’Leary. Until that changes Gesicki remains an un-startable option.
TEs Hayden Hurst & Mark Andrews, BAL (Wk. 8: @Car.): The Ravens’ tight end group has proven to be a muddled mess all season. No TE played even 50% of the week 7 snaps for Baltimore. Andrews played just 38%, and Hurst played an even more paltry 26%. Those aren’t useful snap counts.
Rookies on Byes: RB Ito Smith, ATL, WR Calvin Ridley, ATL, WR Michael Gallup, DAL
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
WR Tre’Quan Smith, NO (Wk. 8: @Min.): I’d have a lot more faith in Smith this week if he had a better matchup. The Vikings have allowed the 5th-fewest WR points per game, which is incredible considering they gave up an astounding 83.9 to the Rams’ receivers. Smith has established himself as the Saints’ WR2 with Ted Ginn on IR, and that’s a fantasy role with lots of upside as long as Drew Brees is under center. He didn’t post a huge game last weekend, but his 6 targets were 6 more than Cam Meredith saw. At the very least, Tre’Quan should be rostered in all formats.
WR Anthony Miller, CHI (Wk. 8: vs. NYJ): Miller was targeted 7 times in his 2nd game back from a shoulder injury, and the Jets allow the 5th-most WR points per game. I don’t expect Trubisky to throw 50 times again this week, so Miller is more of a DFS dart throw than a season-long option, but the fact that he got more opportunity than Taylor Gabriel last Sunday is a promising sign.
WRs Antonio Callaway & Damion Ratley, CLE (Wk. 8: @Pit.): The Steelers are a touchdown favorite, and are allowing the 6th-most WR points per game. Jarvis Landry isn’t going to score all the fantasy points from this group, which means one of this duo should have a better than expected day. Callaway has been playing more snaps and getting more opportunity, but Ratley has been more efficient with his opportunities. Callaway’s blazing speed gives him the higher level of upside.
WR Courtland Sutton, DEN (Wk. 8: @KC): This is a decent opportunity for Sutton to be an intriguing DFS dart throw. Denver will be throwing, and Sutton has been playing nearly as much as Demaryius Thomas lately. The Chiefs are allowing the 13th-most WR points per game. Sutton is hard to trust in season-long leagues, but you can pick your spots to try him in DFS, and this is one of those spots where he’s worth considering.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with some of your tougher lineup decisions that involve rookies as we get deeper into these pivotal weeks. Keep an eye on the injury report to see what happens with Peyton Barber, Sony Michel and Royce Freeman, and anyone else on your teams that is nicked up right now. Feel free to hit me up on twitter if you have any questions or want to harass me about any of the info above (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We've made it about halfway through the NFL season, so it's time to kick your playoff push for the fantasy playoffs into high gear. This week is going to challenge many fantasy teams with SIX NFL teams on a bye, and among them several peak fantasy performers. With that in mind, there are going to be some unexpected rookies who are going to push themselves into the usable range in shallower leagues. There were also some trades this week that may have opened up new opportunities for a couple rookies. Before I dive into the week 9 breakdown, I did want to mention one rookie who is sitting out this week on bye. Eagles' rookie Josh Adams is well worth a pickup after providing a solid rushing effort last week in a wide open backfield. He has a chance to be a top-30 back down the stretch if his performance continues. Now let's look at the outlook for the rest of the rooks...
Rookies to Start:
RB Phillip Lindsay, DEN (Wk. 9: vs. Hou.): Royce Freeman is likely going to be sidelined this week and Lindsay has done well to establish himself as a weekly RB2 even with Freeman healthy. The Texans aren't an inviting matchup, ranking 1st in the league in Football Outsiders' run defense DVOA stat, but there's no reason to sit Lindsay in a week with so many top options on byes.
RB Nick Chubb, CLE (Wk. 9: vs. KC): Chubb also will likely be a beneficiary of all of the byes this week. Saquon, Marlon Mack, Joe Mixon and David Johnson are all off this week, and Kansas City allows more RB fantasy points per game than any other team in the league. The Browns' offense has been sputtering lately, and things are in flux with the coaching changes, but Chubb should be a solid RB2 in a plus matchup this week. The only fear is that game script may get away from him with the Browns a 10-point underdog.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Baker Mayfield, CLE (Wk. 9: vs. KC): KC's been sharp against the pass in the last 2 weeks, but they've still allowed the 7th-most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs. Mayfield has been less than stellar over the past couple weeks, but he's recorded at least 1 touchdown in every start he's made this year, and the coaching changes may provide a boost to Mayfield and the offense. With 6 QBs out this week, Mayfield makes for a reasonable QB2 option.
QB Sam Darnold, NYJ (Wk. 9: @Mia.): In 2-QB leagues, just about everyone is in play this week. Darnold strikes me as more of a desperation option, but there is some reason for optimism. His yardage totals have been low (more than 210 passing yards just twice in 8 games), but the Dolphins have coughed up multiple TDs in 4 of the past 5 contests, and have given up 14 total passing TDs in those weeks. They also rank just 26th in pass defense DVOA. There are worse fill-in options this week for 2-QB formats.
RB Kerryon Johnson, DET (Wk. 9: @Min.): You're almost certainly going to play Kerryon if you have him given how he's played lately, especially with the byes and with the Lions likely to employ a more balanced approach with Golden Tate shipped off to Philly. The issue for Kerryon this week is the matchup, and the possible return of Theo Riddick. Minnesota has allowed just one team's RB group to top 60 rushing yards in the past 4 weeks, and they rank 10th in run defense DVOA. Theo may cut into his passing game work. This makes Johnson a risky RB2 for week 9.
RB Sony Michel, NE (Wk. 9: vs. GB): Keep a close eye on the injury report with Michel. He got in a limited practice on Saturday before not playing on Monday night, so there is a decent chance he plays this week. It's a solid matchup if he's able to suit up with Green Bay ranking 24th in run defense DVOA. He's a worthy flex or RB2 option if he's able to play. The Pats are unlikely to hold him back if they played Cordarrelle Patterson in his stead on Monday.
WR Calvin Ridley, ATL (Wk. 9: @Was.): Ridley may even be in play for you as a WR2 if you're hard up due to byes. He's been quiet lately after his early season TD barrage, being held to under 50 receiving yards in each of the past 3 contests with zero scores, but he was the 2nd-most targeted Falcon last week after Julio Jones. This week is a good opportunity for him to get back on track against a middling Washington WR defense. There's risk here that he continues to stay in the 3-40-0 range, but I like his chances for a bounceback game.
WR DJ Moore, CAR (Wk.9: vs. TB): This will be as good a week as any to take a risk on DJ Moore. The Bucs allow the 2nd most WR points per game, and rank dead last in pass defense DVOA. Moore's role has been rapidly increasing. Over the past 4 games he's tallied 18 catches for 237 yards, and 4 rushes for 75, and he set a season-high with 129 scrimmage yards in week 8. There's a chance he duplicates that feat in a great matchup.
WR Courtland Sutton, DEN (Wk. 9: vs. Hou.): With Demaryius Thomas gone, the WR2 role in Denver is wide open for Sutton to take over. That role didn't exactly work out well for DT, but the Texans rank 30th in pass defense DVOA on throws to the number 2 WR. He's more of an upside play than a safe option this week, but the drop off in target competition should give him a higher floor moving forward.
Rookies to Sit:
RB Royce Freeman, DEN (Wk. 9: vs. KC): If Freeman manages to play, he'll likely take a back seat to Phillip Lindsay and be eased back into action. Since the Texans rank 1st in run defense DVOA, this probably isn't the best spot to take a chance on a limited Freeman.
RB Ito Smith, ATL (Wk. 9: @Was.): Ito has upside as long as Devonta Freeman is out, but this isn't a great matchup. Washington has allowed just 90 total rushing yards and zero total TDs to running backs in the past 3 weeks, and they faced Zeke, Saquon, and McCaffrey in that stretch. Ito isn't on that level. I'd look elsewhere for RB help this week.
RB Justin Jackson, LAC (Wk.9: @Sea.): Ok, so you weren't actually considering playing Jackson this week, but he's definitely worth watching for those of you playing in dynasty leagues if Melvin Gordon is out again. Rookie scouting guru Matt Waldman compared Jackson with Jamaal Charles in this year's Rookie Scouting Portfolio, and this may be the first real look we get at him. He was ultra-productive in college at Northwestern. If he impresses, he may be worth a stash in deeper dynasty formats.
WR Keke Coutee, HOU (Wk. 9: @Den.): Keke's status is still up in the air this week as he works his way back from a hamstring injury, and his overall outlook took a hit with the trade for Demaryius Thomas. Coutee will still have WR3 upside when healthy, but I'd probably steer clear this week. The Broncos' best corner Chris Harris Jr patrols the slot, and the Broncos rank 2nd in pass defense DVOA on throws to WRs who aren't their team's #1 or 2.
WR Michael Gallup, DAL (Wk.9: vs. Ten.): Gallup seemed to be making strides when he posted his best game of the year before the bye (3-81-1)...then thee Cowboys went out and traded for Amari Cooper. Cooper's role as the team's WR1 should be obvious after the team spent a first round pick to acquire him. The rest of the WR group already was tough to figure out, and now there are less snaps and targets to divvy up between them. Keep Gallup parked on the bench until we see him emerge with Amari around.
WR Damion Ratley, CLE (Wk. 9: vs. KC): Ratley had just one catch in week 8, and it's likely that Rashard Higgins will return this week and push Ratley back to the bench.
TEs Hayden Hurst & Mark Andrews, BAL (Wk. 9: @Pit.): Andrews continues to be the most involved TE in the Ravens' passing game, but it isn't resulting in fantasy success. Hurst did post his first career TD last Sunday after head coach John Harbaugh talked about getting him more involved, but it came in garbage time with Lamar Jackson at QB. Neither player is doing enough to trust this week.
TE Jordan Thomas, HOU (Wk. 9: @Den.): Don't be fooled by the 2 touchdowns from last week, tight ends don't get featured in this offense. Thomas had just 4 catches all season prior to week 8, and in his 'breakout' 2-TD game he was asked to block on nearly two-thirds of the snaps he played. I wouldn't expect a repeat performance.
Rookies on Bye: QB Josh Rosen, ARI, RB Saquon Barkley, NYG, RB Josh Adams, PHI, RBs Nyheim Hines & Jordan Wilkins, IND, RB Chase Edmonds, ARI, RB Mark Walton, CIN, WR Christian Kirk, ARI, WR DJ Chark, JAX, TE Dallas Goedert, PHI
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
RB Trenton Cannon, NYJ (Wk. 9: @Mia.): The Dolphins are favored to win this game, and they've allowed the 9th-most RB receiving yards on the year. Cannon wasn't overly productive last week, but he will continue to play the 3rd-down role at least until Eli McGuire returns from IR. He's only an option in deep PPR leagues this week. Make sure that McGuire isn't returning this week before pulling the trigger.
WR Tre'Quan Smith, NO (Wk. 9: vs. LAR): I'm still on the Tre'Quan train despite limited results over the past 2 weeks. Drew Brees likely won't be limited to 120 passing yards again in a game with the highest over/under of the week, and Smith is running as the Saints' WR2. He'll be hard to trust in anything but deeper leagues and DFS tournaments, but there is still big upside here.
WR Anthony Miller, CHI (Wk. 9: @Buf.): Miller has been targeted 7 times in each of the last 2 weeks, and it seems there's a good chance A-Rob misses another game this week. The rookie has caught just 5 of those 14 targets for 72 yards and a score, but he's likely to avoid the coverage of Tre'Davious White since White rarely goes into the slot. Miller is a better option than teammate Taylor Gabriel this week.
WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, GB (Wk.9: @NE): Despite the return to action of Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison in week 8, Valdes-Scantling still played ahead of them. It may just be the Packers easing the injured guys back in, but if it continues here MVS has some decent upside. This tilt has shootout potential with the 2nd-highest O/U of the week.
WR Antonio Callaway, CLE (Wk. 9: vs. KC): Callaway finally had a game where he caught more than half of his targets, pulling in 5-of-6 opportunities and finding the end zonein week 8. The yardage was limited, but it was still a good sign to see his efficiency improve. The Browns will likely be throwing a lot this week, and the Chiefs are a good matchup for WRs. I'm not ready to fully trust Callaway, but he's an interesting upside play this week, especially as a cheap DFS tournament option.
WR DaeSean Hamilton, DEN (Wk. 9: vs. Hou.): We haven't seen much of Hamilton yet, but with Demaryius shipped off to Houston he should step into the WR3 role that resulted in a few productive weeks for Courtland Sutton. DaeSean is an intriguing stash for deeper dynasty leagues to see how his role shakes out without DT.
TE Chris Herndon, NYJ (Wk. 9: @Mia.): There isn't a lot of yardage upside with Herndon, but he's a better than average TD dart throw this week. The rookie tight end has scored a touchdown in 3 straight games, and the Dolphins have allowed 5 scores to the position in the last 3 contests.
That's all I've got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with some of your toughest lineup decisions this week that involve rookies. It could be a messy week with so many byes, so make sure to keep an extra close eye on the injury report this week to make sure all of your players suit up, and to look for unexpected opportunity that can benefit your team. Feel free to reach out on twitter if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game.