Are you looking for a vote of confidence when picking spreads, money lines and total points in NFL games? Let me be that football guru, number cruncher, couch doctor, virtuoso, wizard, svengali, professional or ace who has searched for and seen the prophecies of victory as well as having the ability to put your precarious and gambling souls at ease with my advice. Almost 20 years of sports wagering experience is proudly listed on the resume, as well as playing in my 22nd season of fantasy football(definitely a pioneer). In this weekly column, I'll offer up everything from winners, weekly spreads, point totals, moneyline moods and under/ overs, to nuggets of advice, betting strategies and game outlooks. Additionally, every week, I'll submit at least one of my tantalizing, high-odds, 'Nicks Picks', a parlay too good to be true. Remember, the most important rule is never gamble what you don't have... so be careful and good luck!
Hey everybody, welcome to the first installment of 2018's 'Nick's Picks'. If you were looking for the column in weeks one and two, I didn't write one. As I have mentioned the last few seasons, the first two weeks are too difficult to grade talent and make legitimate wagers. This rule also applies to Thursday night games during the whole season, as the shortened rest and time to game plan can throw off the dynamic of a game in a major way. This week also looks a little difficult as far as deciding on matchups, so I am going to ease into the season by being very picky and frugal. Again, you don't have to win big every week... pick your spots.
Green Bay Packers(-140) 33 @ Washington Redskins(+125) 16 --- GB -2.5 --- Over 45 --- The Packers are a safe play this week, money line and spread. If they are going to tie the powerhouse Vikings with a hobbled Aaron Rodgers, then I just can't, and won't believe the Redskins will stop him. The only way Washington gets a win is if they take Rodgers out of the game some how.
New Orleans Saints(+115) 30 @ Atlanta Falcons(-128) 24 --- NO +2 --- Over 53 --- I'm taking the Saints this week as an underdog in a game where I feel the offense will really hit their stride. I'm not sure which defense will show up for New Orleans, but it can't be worse than the ones in the first two weeks of the season.
Oakland Raiders (+135) 20 @ Miami Dolphins(-150) 34 --- MIA -3 --- Over 44.5 --- Haven't seen anything from the Raiders yet to make me think they can even beat a middle rate team like the Dolphins. A comfortable moneyline.
Cincinnati Bengals(+136) 23 @ Carolina Panthers(-152) 26 --- CAR -2.5(I dropped it 0.5 pts. from -3) --- Over 44.5 --- I believe this will be one of the closest contests of the week and am treading lightly. I don't dig the moneyline for this close of a bump and grind.
Denver Broncos(+214) 16 @ Baltimore Ravens(-243) 23 --- BAL -5.5(I dropped it 0.5 pts. from -6.0) --- Under 46.5 --- Another close game, as I am not a true believer in either of these teams to win on a consistent basis. Both teams have talent but can't put it all together. Even though I have the Ravens to cover the spread, I'd stay away from putting the farm on the unfavorable moneyline.
New York Giants(+215) 13 @ Houston Texans(-245) 30 --- HOU -6.0 --- Over 43.5 --- The Giants suck and Houston is better. Unless New York can get Odell involved and protect Eli, it doesn't matter if they drafted the best rookie RB of the last decade. Moneyline isn't too bad for a victory this decisive.
San Francisco 49ers(+242) 30 @ Kansas City Chiefs(-115) 44 --- KCC -6.0 --- Over 54.5 --- Most likely one of the highest scoring games of the week, go ahead and take the over on this contest with confidence. Even though both teams will be scoring like crackheads on customer appreciation night, I still think the Chiefs will put it off by at least a touchdown. Safe moneyline for the home team, even though the riches aren't there.
Indianapolis Colts(+248) 19 @ Philadelphia Eagles(-284) 27 --- PHI -7.0 --- Over 46.0 --- Carson Wentz's first game back will have doubters, but he is still an upgrade from Nick Foles. The Eagles should be fine, especially against the Colts, who are still getting their groove back with Andrew Luck. The moneyline is safe with that Philly Defense having it's greenbacks.
Buffalo Bills(+851) 9 @ Minnesota Vikings(-1351) 51 --- MIN -16.5 --- Over 41.0 --- Let's see, this is the biggest blowout of the week, maybe the season, so definitely take the spread as the Vikings will at least win by 17 points. They will also score at least 41 points by themselves so grab the over. Finally, even though that moneyline is huge for Minnesota, this is one of those games where it pays to be a big spender.
Los Angeles Chargers(+266) 20 @ Los Angeles Rams(-306) 37 --- LAR -7.5 --- Over 48.5 --- I would say the Chargers defense would make this a closer contest, but the lack of presence from Joey Bosa will continue to be a factor. Philip Rivers and company have the firepower to put away most teams by staying ahead of them, but the Rams are not most teams. Gurley and Goff will definitely lay down the hurt. Safe enough moneyline, spread and over.
Chicago Bears(-232) 27 @ Arizona Cardinals(+204) 6 --- CHI -5.5 --- Under 39.0 --- This is a gravy game. The Cardinals will be lucky to score a field goal per half, so take the Bears in every conceivable wagering category.
Dallas Cowboys(+111) 20 @ Seattle Seahawks(-124) 27 --- SEA -2.0 --- Over 40.5 --- A game which can give you nightmares because both teams are confusing to pin down. Safely take the numbers given, but l'd look for games with less risk.
New England Patriots(-289) 34 @ Detroit Lions(+252) 23 --- NEP -6.5(I dropped it 0.5 pts. from -7.0) --- Over 54 --- The Patriots should not have a problem pulling this one off and judging by how they rarely lose back to back games, the moneyline is a safe bet and good value.
Pittsburgh Steelers(-104) 34 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers(-106) 31 --- PIT -1.0 --- Over 54 --- A very close game in which I think the Steelers will win due to them rarely going winless for three straight contests. The safest play on this one is the over.
Nick's Picks of the week:
3 game parlay --- GBP -2.5 --- HOU -6.0 --- KCC -6.0
3 game parlay --- PHI -7.0 --- MIN -16.5 --- LAR -7.5
2 game parlay --- CHI -5.5 --- NEP -7.0
Please wait...
