Are you looking for a vote of confidence when picking game scores, spreads and over/unders? Let me be that football wizard who has seen the prophecies of victory and has the ability to put your wagering soul at ease. In this column, I'll go over each match up and point out why I'm leaning a certain direction as well as predicting the point total. I will also tell you who I'd pick when it comes to point spreads and over/unders.
WEEK 11 PICKS:
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 34 @ CAROLINA PANTHERS 31 - I believe this game will be decided by a field goal with the underdog pulling out a road victory. Even though New Orleans' defense is flimsy, I just can't trust what the Panthers are selling me on a weekly basis. And how can you not trust Drew Brees? Division games come down to big plays and I think the Saints have more in the bank than Cam Newton and friends. So I'd take New Orleans and the points, go low on the confidence points and take the over.
TENNESSEE TITANS 33 @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 27 - This game could easily have more points scored in it. Both the starting QBs have been putting up excellent fantasy numbers and obviously Murray and Gore owners are not allowed to complain. The Titans' stronger run/pass attack, combined with a defense much more capable than Indy's, leaves a 'close, but not close enough', defeat for the home team. Take the Titans and the points, think low with confidence points and take the over, but don't go crazy with it.
BUFFALO BILLS 27 @ CINCINNATI BENGALS 31 - The Bengals will have a rebound game after their close loss against the Giants in week 10. They have all the pieces on both side of the ball to get the job done, yet lack consistency. Buffalo has the makings of a really good football team if they can get healthy. I like both defenses to keep it under control while the offense boxes the clown enough to combine for fifty-plus. The Bengals and the spread, low to mid confidence points and definitely take the over.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS 37 @ CLEVELAND BROWNS 17 - The Steelers are angry and probably won't lose another consecutive game, especially since they're playing the Browns. On the other hand, they better not think the victory is a given and maintain their focus. If they can play to their strengths, Pittsburgh should keep the upper hand throughout the game and pull off a sizeable victory. Grab the Steelers and the spread, high confidence points and take the over.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 23 @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 29 - This is one of those games that I stay clear of as far as picking the spread. I have no problem picking KC just to win, but when points are concerned, I get a bad feeling when it comes to Jekyll/Hyde teams like Buffalo- they can put up a mountain of points one week and trip over their dreams the next. I would stay away from the spread but if was forced to choose, I'd take Tampa Bay and points. Low confidence and take the over.
BALTIMORE RAVENS 23 @ DALLAS COWBOYS 34 - This should be a good game with the Cowboys ending up pulling away, earning a hard fought win. I believe the play of the rookie stars, offense line and defense of Dallas will hold down the fort and and wrangle them a victory. Jeesh. The Ravens are too hot and cold for me when it comes to putting up big points so I'm taking the Cowboys and the spread, medium confidence points and take the over.
CHICAGO BEARS 13 @ NEW YORK GIANTS 31 - The Bears are the Browns of the NFC and the Giants are going to remind them of that. Their defense looked really good this past week against the Bengals and will be way too much for Jay Cutler and the rest of the Bears to handle. I'd take the Giants and the spread, high confidence points and take the over.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 23 @ DETROIT LIONS 30 - This game will be close with a lot of garbage time production on both ends if you can believe it. Both of these offenses are slow starters bit usually end up putting up decent production. I like the Lions at home. Stafford has some good weapons and isn't afraid to use them. The Jags are too streaky for me and I don't like the flow of their offense. I would take Jax and points on this one even though I think the Lions will win. Low to mid confidence and take the over.
ARIZONA CARDINALS 27 @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS 16 - I'd like to think that the Vikings have their act together after playing like garbage for the last few weeks, but regardless if they made some corrections, Arizona will be too much for them. The offense of the Cardinals has an identity, something Minnesota lacks. This will be the difference of the game. The Vikings' above average defense won't be able to score points for Sam Bradford and company. Safely take Arizona and the spread, high confidence points and stay away from the over/under.
MIAMI DOLPHINS 27 @ L.A. RAMS 20 - The Rams have a great defense... but that's about it. Miami is more of a complete team and should have no problem getting a win. Take Miami and the spread, low to mid fantasy points as well as the over.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 16 @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 30 - Russell Wilson is healthy and the Seahawks are rockin' out with their neon socks out. The one-two punch of Seattle's offense and defense will create confusion and bad decision making for the Eagles. Seahawks and the spread, high confidence points and the under.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 45 @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ers 20 - Tom Brady doesn't lose two games in a row and will probably make a statement this week against the Niners' crappy D. The Patriots' defense isn't perfect and will most likely give up some points, so that bodes well for making the over. Also go with New England and the spread and high confidence points.
GREEN BAY PACKERS 30 @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS 33 - I'm going against the grain on this one and taking the Redskins. The Packers' secondary has been awful and they just can't get it together as of late. Kirk Cousins and the rest of the kin folk are getting it done and look stronger and stronger every week. I would go with the Redskins and the points, low confidence and grab the over.
HOUSTON TEXANS 20 @ OAKLAND RAIDERS 34 - The Raiders have too much power for the Texans and even though defensive statements aren't made by the home team in Oakland, they should have no problem stifling the struggling play of Houston. Easily take the Raiders and the spread, medium confidence points and go with the over.
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