Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’re down to just a month of regular season left before we hit the fantasy playoffs, but buckle up, because there are a lot of byes over these 4 weeks. If you’re still hunting for a playoff berth, you need to be vigilant and make sure you’re finding the right replacements for your bye week players and maximizing your weekly scores.
This week, it’s the rookie ranks that are hit hardest by byes. Malik Nabers, Marvin Harrison Jr, Bucky Irving, and Tyrone Tracy among many others have the week off, so we’re digging a little deeper to try to find relevant rookies this week, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t any rookies who can help you. Can Bo Nix keep producing? Is Caleb due for a bounce back? How worried should you be about Brian Thomas Jr.? Is Audric Estime’s usage for real? Keep reading for the answers to those questions and a lot more.
A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
Let’s dive into week 11…
Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:
QB Jayden Daniels, WAS (Wk. 11: @ Phi.): Daniels has posted 2 games in his last 4 with fewer than 10 fantasy points, and this week he faces a Philly defense that has allowed the 4th-fewest QB points per game, but I’d be willing to keep plugging Daniels in if you have him. The Eagles’ stellar ranking against QBs has been aided by dominating bad QBs like Daniel Jones, Deshaun Watson and Cooper Rush. Philly has played 5 games this season against QBs that currently rank in the top-18 in fantasy points per game. They’ve given up an average of 19.8 QB fantasy points per game in those 5 contests. Jayden Daniels is currently the QB8 in PPG this season. This might not be a ceiling week for the rookie, but I wouldn’t panic about the matchup too much. I wouldn’t be sitting him anywhere unless it was for a bona fide stud QB.
TE Brock Bowers, LV (Wk. 11: @ Mia.): It’s been at least mildly concerning that Bowers has been out-targeted by Jakobi Meyers in each of the two games since Meyers returned from injury – Bowers was at a 30% or higher target share for 3 straight games before dropping to exactly 20% in weeks 8 & 9 with Meyers back – but that concern isn’t enough for me to move Bowers out of the top-5 TEs for this week. Bowers is the TE2 for the year, and while the Dolphins allow just the 8th-fewest TE points per game, they were shredded by the only TE they’ve faced that is on Bowers’ level. Trey McBride tallied 9-124 on 11 targets against the Phins in week 8. Bowers will always get enough targets for a solid floor, and the weekly upside is always the TE1 overall.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Towards Starting:
QB Bo Nix, DEN (Wk. 11: vs. Atl.): Nix has finished as a QB1 in 4 of the last 6 weeks, and as the QB18 or better in all 6 of those weeks. The rookie seems to have hit his groove and is a weekly fringe QB1 play. His legs consistently provide enough boost to his fantasy bottom line to overcome shaky passing days. This week he gets to face an Atlanta defense that has allowed multiple TD passes in 6 straight games, allowing at least 16.9 fantasy points to the opposing QBs in each of those contests. Don’t be afraid to treat Nix as a fringe QB1 once again.
QB Drake Maye, NE (Wk. 11: vs. LAR): I wouldn’t feel great about plugging in Maye as a QB1 this week, but in superflex formats, he should be a solid QB2 against the Rams. Maye’s passing numbers have been down in the last two games against good defenses in Tennessee and Chicago, but the Rams rank just 21st in FTN’s pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 16th-most QB points per game. The Rams allow 241 passing yards per game, and with the Pats being 5-point underdogs this week, I expect solid volume throwing the ball for Drake. With the added bonus of his rushing output (Maye has averaged 5.6 fantasy points per start in rushing production), Maye should have no problem finishing as a mid-range QB2 this week.
RB Audric Estime, DEN (Wk. 11: vs. Atl.): Sean Payton did more than just follow through on his stated plan to give Estime a bigger workload in week 10…he practically gave him the backfield workload to himself. Estime played less than 50% of the snaps on Sunday, but he handled 14 out of the team’s 17 running back rushing attempts while Javonte Williams was limited to one carry and Jaleel McLaughlin to just two. Estime turned those carries into just 53 yards (3.8 ypc), but he was facing a stout KC run defense and HC Sean Payton said after the game that “He’ll continue to get more reps.” If Estime has a similar workload in week 11, he should have better results against an Atlanta defense that ranks 19th in run defense DVOA and has allowed 11+ fantasy points to 5 running backs in the last 4 weeks. There’s some risk here since Estime isn’t really involved in the passing game and Sean Payton has been inconsistent with his skill player usage all year, but Estime is an upside RB3 for me this week. I’m willing to take Payton at his word that Estime’s rushing usage will continue.
WR Ladd McConkey, LAC (Wk. 11: vs. Cin.): McConkey suffered through the worst usage we’ve seen for him all year in week 10, as he was limited to just a 12% target share despite being in a route on more than 90% of the team passing dropbacks. He still finished as a WR4 for the week despite the low target share, and this week feels like a great spot for some squeaky wheel treatment against a Cincy defense that ranks 27th in pass defense DVOA. We’ve seen the Chargers’ passing volume dip in the last couple of games after some spike weeks prior, but that should rebound a bit against a Bengals team that is worse against the pass than the run. I expect McConkey to be back up to his usual 20-25% target share range, which should get him to the WR3 ranks if the passing volume is low again, and even higher than that if there is, in fact, a rebound.
WR Ricky Pearsall, SF (Wk. 11: vs. Sea.): Pearsall is the definition of a borderline play this week. We’ve now seen him back on the field for 3 weeks, and with Jauan Jennings fully healthy, Pearsall seems to have settled in right around a 70% route participation rate and 18% target share, averaging 5 targets per game over the last 3 contests. Those numbers aren’t overwhelming, but Pearsall has made hay with the opportunities, finishing as the PPR WR35 and WR12 in the last 2 weeks. He faces Seattle this week, who allows the 10th-most WR points per game. George Kittle is battling an injury, so there could be a few extra targets for the WRs in this one, but I expect Pearsall is going to end up in the same 5-6 target range that he’s landed in the last couple weeks. The question is if you trust his talent enough to put up a useful performance on that workload against a below average Seattle pass defense. I view Pearsall as a solid WR4 option this week.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:
QB Caleb Williams, CHI (Wk. 11: vs. GB): With only 28 teams in action this week, any starting QB is in consideration for a start in 2-QB formats, but I wouldn’t feel comfortable plugging in Caleb as my QB2 this week. The Bears’ passing game has looked broken in recent weeks. Caleb threw for just 36 yards in the first 50 minutes against the Commanders in week 8 before a valiant 4th quarter comeback was thwarted by a Hail Mary, and in the two games since, Caleb has thrown for a total of just 337 yards and zero TDs as the Bears have mustered just 12 total points. The recent ineptitude did result in the firing of OC Shane Waldron, but I’m not sold that Thomas Brown calling plays will result in immediate improvements. Brown called plays in 7 games for the Panthers last season. Carolina scored fewer than 20 points in 6 of them, and fewer than 10 points in 4. They were also held below 300 total yards in 4 of those games. It’s true the Bears have more offensive skill to work with than the 2023 Panthers, but Brown’s track record still doesn’t instill confidence. On the other side of this game, the Packers allow the 8th-fewest QB points per game and have held 4 of their last 5 QB opponents below 15 fantasy points. Caleb probably makes it 5 of 6 this week.
RB Braelon Allen, NYJ (Wk. 11: vs. Ind.): I fell into the trap last week of thinking Ray Davis could be a sleeper against a middling Colts’ defense as his team’s RB2, and I was way off base, so I’m not going back to that well this week with Allen. It’s worth noting that Allen has handled at least 40% of the Jets’ rushing attempts in 2 of their last 3 games, so similar usage here would give him some appeal if you’re desperate. The Colts allow the 16th-most RB points per game, but I wouldn’t view Braelon as anything more than a fringe RB3 this week.
RB Ray Davis, BUF (Wk. 11: vs. KC): Unfortunately for Davis, his blow-up game in week 9 did not lead to increased usage in week 10. Davis piled up 90 yards and a score on just 6 touches in week 9, but he was limited to just 10 snaps and 3 carries last Sunday, finishing with 6 scrimmage yards. I’m not sure there’s any path to trusting him this week against the Chiefs, who rank 3rd in run defense DVOA and allow the fewest RB points per game. You’d basically be hoping he turns just a few touches into big production like he did a couple weeks ago.
WR Brian Thomas, Jr., JAX (Wk. 11: @ Det.): Thomas has struggled over the last couple weeks as he’s battled a chest injury and a backup QB. He’s totaled fewer than 10 PPR points in the last two weeks and will have to deal with Mac Jones at QB for at least another game. I’m more worried about Jones than the injury. Jones barely even glanced in Thomas’ direction last week. The rookie finished with 2-12 on 3 targets, but his first catch of the game didn’t happen until the final 5 minutes of the contest. Part of the issue was that the Jaguars took the ball out of Mac Jones’ hands. Jones attempted just 22 passes all game, and 8 of them were in those final 5 minutes. Jacksonville was able to limit that passing volume because they never trailed by more than 5 points. I don’t expect that to be the case this week, as Detroit is favored by two touchdowns. If the Jags fall behind by multiple scores, I expect a lot more passing volume from Jacksonville in this game, and that could work out great for Thomas against a defense that allows the 4th-most WR points per game. The concern though, is that if Jones doesn’t push the ball down the field at all, Thomas will need extra target volume to get to a productive fantasy day, and we’ve already seen Jones target Thomas on less than 15% of his throws for one start. If you have to start Thomas this week, there are some reasons for optimism – the likely increased passing volume, the good matchup, and the chance that the injury was a bigger part of the issue and he’s healthier now – but he’s still catching passes from Mac Jones. If you have safer options, I’d probably start them instead.
WR Rome Odunze, CHI (Wk. 11: vs. GB): There have been signs of life from Odunze in recent weeks despite some ugly overall performances for Chicago. Since the team’s week 7 bye, Odunze has earned a 24% target share and averaged 9.7 PPR points per game – marks he only hit once in a game prior to the bye. He’s been targeted at least 6 times in each of the last 3 contests and now seems to be closer to on equal footing with DJ Moore and Keenan Allen in the target pecking order. That could change with Thomas Brown calling plays this week, of course, but it remains hard to trust Odunze even if the usage remains strong. Green Bay has allowed the 13th-fewest WR points per game and hasn’t allowed any receiver in their last 5 games to catch for more than 60 yards against them. If there’s an offensive bounce back under Moore, Odunze has WR3 or better upside, but I’m not counting on that bounce back. I’d treat him as more of a WR4/WR5 option this week.
WR Xavier Worthy, KC (Wk. 11: @ Buf.): Things have been pretty bleak for Worthy’s fantasy outlook since KC added DeAndre Hopkins to the mix. Hopkins has been on the field for more than half the snaps in each of the last two weeks, and in those 2 games, Worthy has totaled just 1 scrimmage yard on 8 opportunities (6 targets and 2 rushing attempts). There’s always the threat of a big play with Worthy, but Buffalo is tied for the 6th-fewest completions of 20+ yards allowed, and tied for the 4th-fewest completions of 40+ yards allowed. They also allow the 8th-fewest WR points per game. KC’s WR depth chart also could get more crowded if they get JuJu Smith-Schuster back this week. Worthy should be on the field a lot, but it’s hard to envision him being peppered with targets, and this matchup is a bad one to bet on splash plays for the rookie.
WR Ja’Lynn Polk, NE (Wk. 11 : vs. LAR): It was reported ahead of New England’s week 10 game in Chicago that Head Coach Jerod Mayo had pulled Kendrick Bourne aside and told him that he was going to be benched so the team could give reps to their young receivers…and then they played veteran KJ Osborn ahead of Polk. Polk did post his second-best fantasy game of the year last Sunday (7.2 PPR points), but he ran just 10 routes to Osborn’s 16 while Demario Douglas and Kayshon Boutte served as the WR1 and WR2. The Rams do allow the 8th-most WR points per game, but you can’t trust Polk in lineups when he’s on the wrong half of a WR3 split right now.
WR Adonai Mitchell, IND (Wk. 11: @ NYJ): With Michael Pittman Jr. sidelined last weekend, and Joe Flacco under center, Mitchell posted his best performance of the season, pulling in all 6 of his targets for 61 yards while logging a 95% route participation rate. Unfortunately for Mitchell, Pittman is expected back this week and Anthony Richardson will be back at QB. Mitchell has caught just 5 of 17 targets from Richardson this year, and he’ll likely be relegated to playing only a quarter of the time with Pittman back. Making matters worse, this week’s opponent, the Jets, allow the fewest WR fantasy points per game. Adonai can be safely parked on the bench despite his promising week 10 performance.
WR Troy Franklin, DEN (Wk. 11: vs. Atl.): It’s been 4 weeks since the last time Franklin logged a route participation rate of 60% or higher, and Franklin hasn’t scored 4+ PPR points in any game where he’s been below that mark. He’s also been much better against man-to-man coverage than zone, and Atlanta plays man-to-man defense on just 14% of plays, the second-lowest rate in the league. Franklin scores more than 3 times as many fantasy points per route run against man coverage as he does against zone. This shapes up as a matchup that doesn’t favor the rookie, and the potential return of Josh Reynolds could further muddy the waters. Franklin should remain on benches in all formats this week.
Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:
RB Blake Corum, LAR (Wk. 11: @ NE): Corum has totaled 28 snaps, 15 carries, and 3 targets in the Rams last 5 games. He scored 3 or more PPR points in just one of those games. The matchup here is favorable for running backs, but Corum should be very lightly involved as usual.
RB Marshawn Lloyd, GB (Wk. 11: @ Chi.): There’s a chance Lloyd comes off IR this week, but he’s going to likely be buried on the depth chart behind Josh Jacobs, Chris Brooks, and Emmanuel Wilson. I don’t expect him to have a fantasy-useful role in his first game back, but he’s worth monitoring in deeper leagues.
RB Carson Steele, KC (Wk. 11: @ Buf.): Steele hasn’t hit a 20% snap share or 3+ PPR points in any of KC’s last 6 games. He’ll become even more of an afterthought in a couple weeks when Isiah Pacheco returns to the lineup.
RB Isaac Guerendo, SF (Wk. 11: vs. Sea.): With Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason both back last weekend, Guerendo was limited to just 3 offensive snaps. We know he can produce when he gets opportunities, but those opportunities won’t be there with CMC and Mason healthy.
RB Kimani Vidal, LAC (Wk. 11: vs. Cin.): Vidal was a healthy scratch last Sunday with Gus Edwards back from IR. There’s not much reason to consider him for lineups when you don’t know if he’ll even be active.
WR Jermaine Burton, CIN (Wk. 11: @ LAC): With Tee Higgins sidelined again last week, the Bengals went out of their way to get Burton involved, but things didn’t work out quite as planned against a Baltimore defense that has been bleeding points to receivers. Burton was in a route on more than 50% of the team dropbacks, but he turned 5 targets into just 1 catch for 11 yards while Ja’Marr Chase blew up for more than 200 yards. Higgins is practicing this week and could return, but even if he’s out again, the Chargers are a lot less giving to wideouts than the Ravens. LA allows the 7th-fewest WR points per game and ranks 5th in pass defense DVOA. If Higgins plays, Burton will be an afterthought. If Tee is out again, Burton will be a deep ball dart throw facing a tough defense.
WR Malachi Corley, NYJ (Wk. 11: vs. Ind.): As I expected, Corley got a bump in playing time with Mike Williams traded away and Allen Lazard still on IR, but it didn’t result in a significant bump in opportunities. Corley was in a route on 32% of the team dropbacks and finished with just 1 catch for 2 yards on 2 targets last Sunday. Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams are going to dominate the targets in this passing game, which means Corley needs to have a stranglehold on all of the WR3 work to have any real fantasy upside. Right now he’s ceding more than half of that WR3 work to Xavier Gipson.
WR Malik Washington, MIA (Wk. 11: vs. LV): Washington scored his first career TD last week on an 18-yard rush, and added a 17-yard reception for good measure, but it was the first time this season that he’s run fewer routes than Odell Beckham Jr. If he’s dropping to 4th on this depth chart, his already minimal fantasy upside takes a hit.
WR Luke McCaffrey, WAS (Wk. 11: @ Phi.): McCaffrey saw a meaningful uptick in usage last weekend, logging his highest route participation rate, target share, and fantasy point total since week 5, but that amounted to just 18 routes run, 3 targets, and 3.3 PPR points. Hopefully his usage continues to trend upward, but you can’t start a WR who has just one performance of 5+ PPR points all season.
WR Mason Tipton, NO (Wk. 11: vs. Cle.): Tipton has become an expert at running wind sprints this season as he’s failed to make much of a fantasy impact even as the Saints have been decimated at WR. He’s scored fewer than 4 PPR points in all but one game this year despite being on the field a ton. Tipton was in a route on 59% of the Saints team dropbacks last weekend (the first time he’s been below 80% since week 6), but didn’t earn a single target. Meanwhile, street free agents Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Dante Pettis, and Kevin Austin all caught passes for the Saints last Sunday. It’s hard to envision Tipton breaking through against Cleveland this week. The Browns play man-to-man coverage at the highest rate in the league, and per PFF, Tipton hasn’t caught a single pass against man coverage this season.
WRs Johnny Wilson & Ainias Smith, PHI (Wk. 11: vs. Was.): Wilson scored his first career TD on Sunday, but he ran just 5 routes all games. Smith caught 2 passes for 6 yards on Sunday, but ran just 4 routes. Both players are afterthoughts in this offense.
WR Jordan Whittington, LAR (Wk. 11: @ NE): Whittington was active on Monday night, but he didn’t run a single route. He’s buried on the depth chart now that Kupp and Nacua are back.
TE Cade Stover, HOU (Wk. 11: @ Dal.): Stover will likely see his limited TE2 role diminished even further with the impending return of Nico Collins this week. He’s been at a 30% or higher route participation rate in 4 of the 5 games Collins missed, but didn’t top 22% in any of the games Collins played. Stover wasn’t doing much with that extended playing time anyway (he scored just 7.6 total PPR points in those 5 games with Collins out), but that extended playing time likely starts taking a hit this week.
TE Ben Sinnott, WAS (Wk. 11: @ Phi.): Sinnott logged his lowest route participation rate of the season in week 10 (5%). He’s earned just 3 targets all season and has run more routes than TE2 John Bates in just 2 games this season.
Rookies on Byes in Week 11: RB Tyrone Tracy Jr., NYG, RB Bucky Irving, TB, RB Trey Benson, ARI, RB Jonathon Brooks, CAR, WR Malik Nabers, NYG, WR Marvin Harrison Jr., ARI, WRs Jalen Coker & Xavier Legette, CAR, WR Jalen McMillan, TB, TE Já’Tavion Sanders, CAR, TE Theo Johnson, NYG, TE Tip Reiman, ARI
Deep League Sleepers and Stashes:
WR Devaughn Vele, DEN (Wk. 11: vs. Atl.): I’ve mentioned it before in this space – Devaughn Vele does almost all of his damage against zone coverage, and the Falcons play zone coverage at the 4th-highest rate in the league. Vele leads the Broncos in fantasy points per route run vs. zone coverage, and his 21.4% target rate vs zone is just 1 % lower than Courtland Sutton’s rate. Sutton will continue to function as the WR1 in this offense, but Vele’s role seems a bit more secure after logging an 82% route participation rate in week 10. If he’s on the field that much against Atlanta, double-digit PPR points seems likely. Keep tabs on the Broncos’ injury report this week if you’re planning on starting Vele, though. Josh Reynolds was designated to return this week, and if he’s active in week 11, it could throw a wrench into this situation. Vele becomes much dicier if that’s the case.
TE AJ Barner, SEA (Wk. 11: @ SF): With Noah Fant out in week 9, Barner served as the clear TE1, running a route on 86% of the team passing dropbacks and earning 7 targets. Fant isn’t practicing this week as of Wednesday, and if he misses another game, Barner should again serve as the lead tight end. The 49ers are a tough matchup, allowing the 9th-fewest TE points per game, and DK Metcalf should return this week and take back his usual target share, so this isn’t a high ceiling game for Barner. Still, he’s going to be on the field a lot in a game where the Seahawks are 6.5-point underdogs and should be throwing plenty. There’s a strong chance he returns mid-range TE2 production this week if Fant sits, and a TD would likely push him into the top-12 for the week.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter/X (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.
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