Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week one always seems to be a wild one in the NFL, and 2022 was no exception. Three of the four conference championship game participants from last season fell in the opener, and some heavy favorites were defeated (or tied). It was an interesting week for the rookie crop in their debuts. Most of the 1st round receivers showed well – Jahan Dotson scored a pair of TDs, Drake London broke 70 yards, Garrett Wilson and Treylon Burks broke 50, and Chris Olave topped 40 yards and scored a 2-point conversion. Later pick Kyle Philips also showed well in the opener leading the Titans in targets, catches, and receiving yards. The second-round rookies – Christian Watson, Wan’dale Robinson, Skyy Moore, George Pickens, and Alec Pierce – didn’t perform nearly as well. They’ll have chances to get things turned around, I’m sure.
For the running backs, Dameon Pierce disappointed while Breece Hall earned a whopping 10 targets and Isiah Pacheco topped a dozen PPR points in week 1. Many other ballyhooed choices like James Cook, Isaiah Spiller, Zamir White, and Tyler Allgeier had forgettable or non-existent performances. All of those players would be wise to take a page from Bill Belichick and just say ‘we’re on to week 2.’
A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Any data on route participation, air yards, and other usage rates are per Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report on Pro Football Focus. Let’s dive into week 2…
Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:
NONE – Drake London was close to getting inclusion here, but we’re not quite there yet with any of the rookies to call them an auto-start in fantasy.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:
RB Breece Hall, NYJ (Wk. 2: @Cle.): Michael Carter worked as the lead back in the opener, but Hall handled all the hurry-up offense snaps and benefitted greatly from the dump-off passes that came with it. The Jets are nearly a TD underdog this week to Cleveland, so they could be in scramble mode late in the game again. It’s worth noting that Carter played a large share of the long down & distance snaps in week 1, so there is risk in trusting Hall here, but I like his role to grow a bit this week and think he's a reasonable flex option in most formats. Hall handled 100% of the short down & distance snaps in week 1, so the ball is likely going to him in any goal-line opportunities.
WR Drake London, ATL (Wk. 2: @LAR): London was questionable last week with a knee injury that lingered throughout the preseason, but he wasn’t held back at all in the opener, logging an 82% route participation rate and 31% of the team’s air yards. He faced a daunting defensive matchup with Marshon Lattimore, and still managed to post 5-74 on 7 targets. London looks like the real deal 1 week into his career. Jalen Ramsey may look like another daunting matchup in week 2, but the Rams allowed the 10th-most PPR points last season to wide receivers lined up on the perimeter, per Sports Info Solutions (SIS), and allowed the most WR PPR points in the NFL in week 1. The Falcons are 10-point underdogs in this game, so negative game script should force them to throw more than they did in the opener. London should be a solid WR3 in this matchup.
WR Jahan Dotson, WAS (Wk. 2: @Det.): Dotson made a splash in his debut, finding the end zone twice against the Jaguars Sunday. His target share could’ve been better, but he was in a route on 90% of the team dropbacks and led the team with a 29% air yard share. Curtis Samuel is going to be a thing in this offense, so there are a lot of weapons to split the targets between. There is hope that the Commanders will be a pass-heavy offense, and there will be enough volume to go around, but I don’t want to get ahead of myself after a 1-game sample size. The Lions are a great matchup for wide receivers. They allowed the 3rd-highest passer rating in the NFL last season and gave up the 8th-most PPR points to perimeter WRs in week 1 per SIS. Curtis Samuel spends most of his time in the slot, which makes Dotson and Terry McLaurin the stronger plays here. Dotson is a solid WR3 in a matchup that has shoot-out potential.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:
RB Dameon Pierce, HOU (Wk. 2: @Den.): Pierce’s week 1 couldn’t have gone much worse than it did given the expectations going in. Pierce was announced as the starting running back ahead of the opener. The expectation was that he would handle the early-down work and that Rex Burkhead would operate as the receiving back. Instead, Pierce played just 29% of the offensive snaps and handled just 41% of the team’s rushing attempts in a game where the Texans led for much of the game. Head coach Lovie Smith said he wants to get Pierce a bigger workload going forward, but it’s hard to see that happening this week when the Texans are a 10-point underdog to the Broncos. Denver isn’t an especially daunting run defense. They ranked 20th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA in 2021 and allowed 5 yards per carry to Rashaad Penny in week 1, but I expect Rex Burkhead to handle the bulk of the work again in a game where the Broncos’ offense gets on track and the Texans play from behind. Pierce likely sees a similar 10-12 touches in this one.
RB Isiah Pacheco, KC (Wk. 2: vs. LAC): Pacheco posted a strong NFL debut with 62 rushing yards and a TD, but 9 of those carries and the score came in the 4th quarter with the Chiefs leading by more than 20 points. Pacheco is the RB3 in this offense. CEH is the lead back on early downs, and Jerick McKinnon is the passing-down back. Pacheco gets the scraps and the garbage time. Week 2 doesn’t seem like a great one to bet on garbage time with the Chiefs favored by just 3 points against a very strong Chargers team. Pacheco won’t see enough work to be serviceable for fantasy purposes.
RB Rachaad White, TB (Wk. 2: vs. @NO): White handled 8 touches in week one working behind Leonard Fournette, but 5 of those touches came in the 4th quarter with Tampa up by multiple scores. Fournette handled almost all the backfield work while the game was still competitive. The game this week should be competitive throughout against a Saints team that usually gives Tom Brady trouble. Tampa Bay is 0-4 against the Saints in the regular season with Brady at the helm. I expect White’s role to grow as the season goes on, but for now he’ll need a Fournette injury to be startable in fantasy.
WRs Treylon Burks & Kyle Philips, TEN (Wk. 2: @Buf.): Philips led the Titans pass catchers in pretty much all categories in week 1 except touchdowns, but it’s worth noting that all but 1 of his snaps came in 11 personnel, a formation the Titans were in less than 60% of the time in 2021. He also draws veteran slot corner Taron Johnson this week, the toughest individual matchup in this secondary. I like Burks’ chances at a solid game better than Philips in this one, but he was in a route for just 36% of Tannehill’s dropbacks in week 1, so you’re counting on him putting up production in limited snaps if you trot him out there. The Bills did allow the 5th-most PPR points to perimeter WRs in week one per SIS, but overall, this is a formidable defense. I wouldn’t want to trust a player to have a big game against them on limited snaps.
WR George Pickens, PIT (Wk. 2: vs. NE): Pickens started in week one and was in a route on 91% of Mitch Trubisky’s dropbacks in the opener, but he spent most of the day running wind sprints. The Steelers targeted Pickens just 3 times in 38 pass attempts as Diontae Johnson and Pat Freiermuth dominated targets. There is some reason for optimism for Pickens in week two. Pro Football Focus projects his most frequent week 2 opponent to be New England CB Jonathan Jones, who stands just 5’10” (Pickens is 6’3”). New England is also notorious for schematically taking away the opponent’s best weapons. Their focus should be in slowing down Diontae, which could create more opportunities for Pickens. I expect Pickens to see more than 3 targets in this one, and possibly a couple of looks in the red zone, but he’s a boom-or-bust WR4 until we see more consistency.
WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 2: @Cle.): Wilson earned a healthy 8 targets in the opener, but he split work with Corey Davis and Braxton Berrios behind WR1 Elijah Moore. Wilson was in a route on just 56% of Joe Flacco’s dropbacks, and the 8 targets look less impressive when you realize the Jets threw the ball 59 times in the opener. I wouldn’t count on a repeat of that kind of overall passing volume in a game that should be more competitive with Cleveland. Wilson did have a solid 24% air yardage share in his limited snaps and was targeted on half of the throws that went into the end zone, so the arrow is pointing up as Wilson gets more playing time. I just wouldn’t be eager to plug him into lineups when I’m expecting lower overall pass volume against a defense that ranked 7th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA in 2021 (and 8th in that stat in week 1). I’d wait a little longer to start getting Wilson into lineups.
WR Chris Olave, NO (Wk. 2: vs. TB): Olave played a full-time role in the opener, logging an 83% route participation rate, and he looked good for the most part. Unfortunately, the bulk of the targets went to Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry, and there’s reason to think that could happen again. PFF projects Olave to square off mostly with Bucs #1 CB Carlton Davis in this game, and Tampa does a solid job at limiting fantasy points to perimeter WRs. Per SIS, the Bucs allowed the 14th-fewest PPR points to perimeter wide receivers in 2021 and allowed the 9th-fewest to them in week 1. Jarvis Landry lines up predominantly in the slot, so it could be Landry who has the biggest day of the New Orleans pass catchers in a tough matchup. You could take a shot on Olave in lineups since he has a full-time role, but I’d prefer both Landry and Thomas this week ahead of him.
WRs Christian Watson & Romeo Doubs, GB (Wk. 2: vs. Chi.): It was a forgettable game for the Packers wide receivers in week 1 with Christian Watson dropping a wide-open deep ball and all of the WRs failing to establish themselves in Allen Lazard’s absence. Expectations were high for Romeo Doubs after he starred in the preseason, but in week one it was running back AJ Dillon who led the team in targets and receiving yards. Lazard is practicing ahead of this week’s matchup, which will make a breakout for either rookie WR even tougher. Watson led the wide receivers in routes run and Doubs finished fourth in week 1, but all the top 4 receivers rotated pretty evenly. Watson was drafted in the 2nd round and seemed to be ahead of Doubs in week 1 despite missing a lot of training camp with an injury. If I had to bet on one of the duo being the WR2 going forward behind Lazard, my bet would be on Watson, but I’m not sure I’d want to start any of them in fantasy other than Lazard. Aaron Rodgers key takeaway after week 1 is that the Packers need to get their running backs more involved. The running backs had a 31.4% target share in the opener.
WR Alec Pierce, IND (Wk. 2: @Jax.): Pierce was in a route on two-thirds of Matt Ryan’s 54 dropbacks in week 1, but that resulted in just 2 catch-less targets. Michael Pittman Jr, Kylen Granson, and the running backs dominated targets, with Pierce duking it out with Parris Campbell and Ashton Dulin for the scraps. He’ll earn more opportunities as the season goes on, but you can’t trust him in season-long lineups even in a plus matchup against the Jaguars. Pierce popped up on the injury report Wednesday with news he’s in the concussion protocol, making him an even worse week 2 option.
Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:
QB Bailey Zappe, NE (Wk. 2: @Pit.): Mac Jones suffered a back injury on Sunday against Miami, opening the door for a slim chance that Zappe is the first rookie QB to make a start this season. It’s more likely that the Patriots would turn to Brian Hoyer than Zappe if Jones sits, but if Zappe does get the nod, I wouldn’t consider him as an option even in 2-QB leagues. The Steelers forced 4 turnovers from Joe Burrow last weekend, and the Pats’ offense was a mess with Jones healthy in week 1. This one could be ugly if Zappe gets the chance to start, but I think the Patriots’ game plan would be to hide him as much as possible with a run-heavy attack.
RB James Cook, BUF (Wk. 2: vs. Ten.): Cook was unsurprisingly part of a 3-way backfield with Devin Singletary and Zack Moss in week 1. What was surprising was that he was a distant 3rd in the pecking order. Cook’s first touch didn’t come until the 2nd quarter after both of his teammates had handled multiple touches, and the rookie promptly put the ball on the turf. He played just 2 additional snaps after the fumble and didn’t touch the ball again. I don’t expect it to be a multi-week doghouse situation for Cook, but he’s going to have to earn back that trust. You can’t start him in week 2.
RB Isaiah Spiller, LAC (Wk. 2: @KC): Spiller was a healthy scratch behind Joshua Kelley and Sony Michel last week, and there’s no reason to think he won’t be in the same situation in week 2. He doesn’t need to be rostered in redraft leagues.
RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL (Wk. 2: @LAR): Like Isaiah Spiller, Allgeier was also inactive in week 1. The Falcons rolled with Cordarrelle Patterson and Damien Williams handling most of the backfield work, and that should continue here. I’m fine with holding onto Allgeier in deeper leagues in hopes he moves up the depth chart a la Rhamondre Stevenson in New England last season, but he doesn’t offer much immediate value.
WR Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG (Wk. 2: vs. Car.): Robinson was in line for a big role in week 1, but that was derailed early on as he was sidelined by a knee injury in the first half Sunday. The Giants’ WR depth chart is a fluid situation from week to week. Kadarius Toney may be the most explosive player in the group, but he was seemingly in the doghouse in week 1 with just 7 snaps played. Sterling Shepard scored a long TD but was otherwise barely targeted in his return from an Achilles tear. Richie James led the gang with 6 targets. Robinson isn’t practicing as of Wednesday, so he seems less than likely to play, but it’ll be tough to trust him in lineups even if he’s active with limited practice time coming off the injury.
WR Skyy Moore, KC (Wk. 2: vs. LAC): Patrick Mahomes put on an absolute clinic in week 1, shredding the Cardinals to the tune of 360 yards and 5 touchdowns. Unfortunately, not much of that went to Skyy Moore. The rookie was in a route for just 16% of Mahomes’ dropbacks, and he caught his only target for 30 yards. He should be stashed in most formats, but it may take him some time to climb the depth chart to get ahead of either Marquez Valdes-Scantling or Mecole Hardman for playing time. You can’t count on Moore in lineups yet.
WR David Bell, CLE (Wk. 2: vs. NYJ): Bell, like much of the Browns’ passing attack, wasn’t very useful for fantasy purposes in week 1 with Jacoby Brissett under center. He also wasn’t on the field very much. Bell worked as the team’s 4th WR, running a route on just 19% of the team’s dropbacks. The Browns’ offense is going to run through Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt so long as Brissett is at QB. There will be limited passing targets to go around, and Bell is low in the pecking order for now. He shouldn’t be rostered in most redraft formats.
WR Velus Jones Jr., CHI (Wk. 2: @GB): Jones missed week 1 with a hamstring injury, but he has a chance to suit up for week 2 after getting in a limited practice on Wednesday. We still don’t know how high on the depth chart Jones will be when healthy, and it’s likely he’ll be eased back in off the hamstring injury even if he was ticketed for a meaningful role. Leave him parked on the bench in deeper leagues where you’ve got him rostered until we see what his usage is going to look like.
TE Isaiah Likely, BAL (Wk. 2: vs. Mia.): Likely put up a goose egg on the scoreboard for fantasy last week, but the Ravens weren’t lying about him being on the field a decent amount. Likely was in a route on 51% of the team’s dropbacks and drew 4 targets in the opener against the Jets. He just didn’t catch any of them. It was a promising sign that he’ll be involved in the offense, but a 51% route participation rate isn’t high enough to trust him in fantasy lineups, especially as the offense will probably run more when JK Dobbins returns to the lineup. Likely is worth monitoring, and he’ll be an interesting weekly dart throw for DFS purposes and deep leagues, but it will probably take a Mark Andrews injury to unlock any true upside for most redraft formats.
TE Daniel Bellinger, NYG (Wk. 2: vs. Car.): Bellinger worked as the starting tight end for the Giants in week 1, but it wouldn’t be surprising if you didn’t notice that. He was on the field for 48% of the offensive snaps but was only in a route on 29% of the team dropbacks and wasn’t targeted once. The tight end position just isn’t involved enough in the offense here to use Bellinger in lineups.
TE Trey McBride, ARI (Wk. 2: @LV): McBride was a healthy scratch in week 1 with Zach Ertz recovered from his preseason injury. The Cardinals are siding with the experience of Maxx Williams over the playmaking ability of McBride for the TE2 role in the early part of the season. The Raiders are a good TE matchup if you knew McBride would have a role (allowed the 4th-most TE points in 2021, and the 5th-most in week 1), but we can’t count on him having that role.
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
RB Jaylen Warren, PIT (Wk. 2: vs. NE): Warren was one of the surprises of the preseason, winning the RB2 job in Pittsburgh behind Najee Harris as an undrafted free agent. Normally that role wouldn’t result in a lot of work. Harris handled 86.4% of the backfield touches in Pittsburgh last season, but he also suffered a Lisfranc foot injury in the preseason, one that resurfaced in week 1. It sounds like Najee should be good to go in week 2, but it also sounds like an injury that will linger throughout the season. Warren could play a bigger role as the team tries to manage the foot injury and should function as the workhorse back if it were to sideline Harris in any games. Warren would be a low-end RB2 if Najee somehow ended up missing Sunday’s game with the Patriots, and he shouldn’t be on your league’s waiver wire.
RBs Tyrion Davis-Price & Jordan Mason, SF (Wk. 2: vs. Sea.): Elijah Mitchell suffered a serious knee injury in week 1 and is expected to be out for half the season, opening a huge hole in the San Francisco backfield. Jeff Wilson Jr. will likely step into the lead back role, but that’s not a certainty and Wilson hasn’t exactly been a beacon of health over the past few seasons. Enough of this rushing workload will be handled by Trey Lance and Deebo Samuel that they’re not likely to have more than one relevant fantasy RB at a time, but both TDP and Mason are worth a stash on the off chance that they’re the one guy or that Wilson gets hurt. Davis-Price was inactive in week 1, so it’s been assumed he’s behind Mason on the depth chart, but I wouldn’t be so sure. Mason played just 5 snaps in week 1, all on special teams, so it’s possible special teams are the reason he was active ahead of Davis-Price. TDP has the higher draft capital of the pair (3rd round pick vs UDFA), but both are worth a stash. The 49ers are 9.5-point favorites in week 2, so there’s a real chance whichever back gets the RB2 role sees an extended opportunity in garbage time if the game gets out of hand.
RB Pierre Strong Jr., NE (Wk. 2: @Pit.): Strong was inactive in week 1, but the Patriots placed Ty Montgomery on injured reserve after the game. Montgomery served as the primary receiving back in the opener, handling 91% of the long down & distance snaps and garnering 4 targets, and it remains an open question who will get the passing down work in this backfield while he’s out. The Patriots’ offense has ranked in the top-10 in RB target share every single season since 2016 and the backfield had a 30% target share in week 1. Being the pass-catching back in this offense has typically been a valuable role. Neither Damien Harris nor Rhamondre Stevenson has a skill set that stands out as a natural fit to take on those duties, which means Strong has a chance to take over. It’s far from a certainty, but in deep leagues, it may be worth stashing Strong now for free in hopes that he takes that job rather than trying to outbid others on waivers next week after we learn he did take it.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you continue your strong start to the season or get it back on track if week 1 didn’t go according to plan. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.
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