Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Like any rookie class, it behooves all of us to take a deeper look into who we're dealing with as our drafts get nearer. Basically, do your homework! Today, we'll look at the top 10 rookies, according to Dave's rankings (go to the RK section for these guys). We asked ourselves a few questions, like: What is their landing spot like? What kind of impact can they have in the early/late season? What does their spot on the depth chart currently look like? 

For an in-depth discussion, check out our first podcast of 2022, where we go over these guys in depth, as well as the top 10 ADP players.

Rank - Player Name (POS-TEAM) - Rookie ECR Rank (Difference between ours and ECR)

1 - Breece Hall (RB-NYJ) - ECR 1 (0) - Hall was selected as the 36th pick overall and the 1st RB drafted. He is a workhorse-type RB that should take over 50% of the team’s workload this year and that transition should happen quickly, if not immediately. Sorry, Michael Carter fans. Of all the RBs from this class, Hall has the clearest path to finishing as a top 10 scorer at the position. During his three years at Iowa State, Hall was a great pass catcher – in 2021 he caught 36 balls for 302 yards and 3 TDs. The Jets’ running backs had a total of 15 drops recorded in the 2021 season, more than any other group of RBs in the league. He has also been praised for his pass protection ability and should enter the NFL as an average to above average pass-blocker – not something that every starting RB can say about themselves. Again, the Jets’ RBs allowed 15 pressures last season (4 of which were sacks), both of those stats tying for 2nd most at the position. A big play RB for Iowa State, he maximizes good blocking to create huge plays (3 rushes over 70+ yards last year, for example). PFF rates the Jets’ offensive line at #13 this season and one could argue a case for them even being a little higher in the rankings – all of this proves that there will be opportunities created for Hall this year… the Jets got their guy, and he should put up RB1 numbers from early on in the season. Week 1 against the Ravens will be a test, though!

2 - Drake London (WR-ATL) - ECR 2 (0) - London was taken by the Falcons with the 8th overall pick in this year’s draft, and was the first fantasy/skill player taken. Drake has a good chance to make an impact as a rookie, but he will be limited by the fact that the Falcons are rebuilding. The Falcons returning WRs had just 31 receptions from last year, all of them from Olamide Zaccheaus. This is basically an entirely new WR group. While he may slot in as the WR1 as early as the start of the season - he will still have to contend with Kyle Pitts and Cordarrelle Patterson for touches. It’s certainly feasible that he leads the team in targets by the end of the year. He averaged 14.8 targets per game at USC last season. Drake and the Falcons will be limited with Marcus Mariota as their starting QB - I suspect they will go shopping for an early first round QB in the 2023 draft unless Mariota far exceeds expectations.

3 - Ken Walker III (RB-SEA) - ECR 5 (+2) - Walker was drafted with the 41st overall pick from Michigan State. With Chris Carson retiring from the NFL yesterday after undergoing neck-fusion surgery in December of last year, the RB depth chart in Seattle has Rashaad Penny and Kenneth Walker firmly entrenched at the top. Without Russell Wilson’s dual-threat abilities - which limited options for defenders - and considering their league-worst offensive line (according to PFF) the offense will struggle mightily. But even low scoring teams have to start some kind of offense - and whether that offense is led by Geno Smith, Drew Lock, or even Jimmy Garropolo, it will be a primarily rushing offense that coach Pete Carroll brings back onto the field in 2022. Walker led the nation last year with over 1,000 yards after contact, and could absolutely end up as the primary back in Seattle later this season, but that’s only likely to happen if Rashaad Penny is unable to maintain his position as the starter. Penny led all RBs in production over the last stretch of 2021, running for over 700 yards in the last 6 games. He has had injury concerns and issues in the past though, and signed a one-year contract earlier this year to keep him with the Seahawks but only until 2023. It’s reasonable to project, then, that whoever the starter in Seattle is will have at least low-end RB2 value based purely on volume, and that it could be Walker that ends up closing the year with that title. 

4 - Garrett Wilson (WR-NYJ) - ECR 4 (0) - Garrett Wilson was the second fantasy/skill player off the board this year, going 10th overall to the Jets. Wilson came from an Ohio State team littered with elite talent - his teammate Chris Olave went right after him at 11. In New York, he will not have the same advantage that Drake London has in joining a room with barely any returning talent. The Jets will have Elijah Moore leading the way, along with other WRs who combined for over 130 receptions last year returning in 2022. Wilson will have to be brought along slowly, and is more likely to shine late in the year, if he is to shine at all in his rookie season. It remains to be seen if Zach Wilson can be an elite QB and support multiple legit fantasy threats. Fortunately for Garrett Wilson, we do know that he can put up big numbers on a team with other elite talent around him.

5 - Treylon Burks (WR-TEN) - ECR 3 (-2) - The number 18 overall pick in the draft has already been put through the ringer by sports media. I think it’s fun for them. Here are the important things to remember about Burks: 1. The Titans traded A.J. Brown because they could draft Burks as their WR1 of the future. They were already sold on him. 2. There was a lot of noise over the past several weeks about issues with asthma and conditioning, but the latest reports are already talking about big plays during practice and there have been no issues with conditioning tests leading up to training camp. Burks is a big bodied (6’2”, 220 lbs) receiver that makes both acrobatic and contested catches. He has been compared to both A.J. Brown and Mike Evans in his play style. He put up over 1100 yards and 11 TDs last year for Arkansas, and accounted for the majority of their offense. It seems likely that Burks will be selected too early in redraft leagues, however, since it may take some time for him to get up to speed with the Titans offense, the recently acquired Robert Woods is likely to suck up the majority of the targets (at least for this season), and Derrick Henry and the ground game should still continue to be the team’s focal point.

6 - Jameson Williams (WR-DET) - ECR 6 (0) - Williams was picked 12th overall by the Lions, despite having torn his ACL in the CFB Championship game back in January. He is a big play guy who had the fifth most receiving yards in the nation last year, 79 rec, 1572 yds, 15 TD. I like this landing spot in Detroit because he will be able to bolster what has developed into a solid WR group. Amon-Ra St. Brown’s emergence as a top WR threat late last year was impressive, and shows some promise for the Lions, despite having Jared Goff as their starting QB still. Goff has not shown any aptitude for throwing the deep ball. He was 27th among 33 qualifiers for yards per attempt with 6.6, and dead last among qualifiers for intended air yards per attempt at 6.4. This measures the average depth of target. The point I’m getting at here is that Jared Goff does not throw the ball down the field, so Williams will need to make his big plays by breaking away after the catch. While I like the landing spot so that he is not the sole focus of the defense when he’s on the field, the Lions really could stand to have an upgrade at QB to get the most out of their WRs. I do not expect Williams to have any early season impact due to his ACL tear - he isn’t expected to be back until October at the earliest. He is a candidate for a late season breakout, so he can be a good waiver wire pickup once he returns to action. I do not recommend drafting him in any but the very deepest redraft leagues.

7 - Chris Olave (WR-NO) - ECR 7 (0) - Olave, out of Ohio State, was chosen 11th overall by the New Orleans Saints. They basically traded picks 98, 101, and 120, a 2023 first-rounder, and a 2024 second-rounder in order to select Olave. Not a receiver that gets a lot of yards after the catch, but he has sub 4.4 40-yard dash speed, good size at 6’, 185 lbs, and has been considered to be the best pure route runner in this class of WRs. He finished his college career as the Big Ten’s 4th leading touchdown receiver of all time. Looking at the latest footage of Michael Thomas back at practice and seeing the Saints acquire veteran slot receiver Jarvis Landry earlier this year puts a damper on hopes that Olave could become a primary target in this offense for 2022. But that’s ok - he should be looked at as the WR2/3 on an unpredictable offense that could spread the ball around a lot depending on the health of Michael Thomas over the course of the season. Olave should have more of a late-season impact after we see what shakes out in New Orleans over the first half of the season, but if Thomas or Landry are not up to snuff early on, Olave will immediately slot in as a solid WR2 for the Saints.

8 - Christian Watson (WR-GB) - ECR 9 (+1) - Watson was chosen by the Packers with the 34th overall pick. This is the highest that the Packers have chosen a WR in the Aaron Rodgers era (other notables, Jordy Nelson (36), Randall Cobb (64), Davante Adams (53)). Watson comes with high expectations and a very high ceiling for his overall performance. He, unfortunately, landed on the PUP list with a still unknown injury. If he’s limited through training camp and the preseason, this will put a huge damper on his rookie season possibilities. Rodgers is not one to typically light up a rookie with targets - 38 receptions is the most any rookie has had with him. However, the Packers lost 224 targets from last year, so someone has to be there to catch the ball. As of now, there’s no indication that Watson will miss any game time, so he has the potential for action early on, but I wouldn’t count on anything significant until later in the year, if at all. He will need to pass Randall Cobb on the depth chart (a favorite of Rodgers), in order to see serious weekly fantasy relevance. This is a fantastic landing spot for dynasty purposes, however, and I think his next couple of seasons could be huge.

9 - Skyy Moore (WR-KC) - ECR 8 (-1) - Kansas City selected Moore in the 2nd round (54th pick overall) as the 13th WR off the board. With Tyreek Hill high-tailing it out of Kansas City for a big contract in Miami, the Chiefs have been gobbling up receivers like JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdez-Scantling, and already rostered Mecole Hardman (who was the 56th pick in the 2019 draft). Moore put up 94 catches for 1283 yards and 10 TDs last year at Western Michigan, and would have presumably put up bigger numbers prior to that except he was behind Seahawk receiver Dee Eskridge on the depth chart. An outside receiver with 4.41 speed, Moore is slighter of build (5’10”, 195 lbs) than the recent WR additions to the team - and profiles very similarly to Hardman. It’s hard not to see this as one more attempt to find a quick outside target for Mahomes and we will likely see Moore cannibalize snaps from Hardman as his chemistry with the long-armed QB is put to the test throughout the season. From a redraft perspective Moore is a dangerous pick that may not pan out at all this season. It is a great landing spot for a receiver, though, so who can fault the gambler for rolling the dice in hopes for a great return? Not me.

10 - Jahan Dotson (WR-WAS) - ECR 10 (0) - Dotson was chosen 16th overall by the Washington Commanders and has been getting heaps of praise so far during OTAs from his coaches. With Terry McLaurin holding out until the end of June, Dotson got lots of reps with new Commanders QB Carson Wentz. This landing spot is good for Dotson because he is in line to start opposite McLaurin in Week 1. Dotson was in the top 20 in receiving yards his senior year, putting up 91 rec for 1182 yards and scoring 12 TDs. Dotson appears to be one of the rookie WRs that is best poised to step into a fantasy relevant role early in the season. He’s on a team where he’s being inserted near the top of the depth chart, this team has a new QB - which means basically a new offense. He’s starting at the ground floor. I expect him to have growing pains like any rookie, but it’s a great spot and he’s a good candidate for early season success, unlike many other rookies.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week one always seems to be a wild one in the NFL, and 2022 was no exception. Three of the four conference championship game participants from last season fell in the opener, and some heavy favorites were defeated (or tied). It was an interesting week for the rookie crop in their debuts. Most of the 1^st round receivers showed well – Jahan Dotson scored a pair of TDs, Drake London broke 70 yards, Garrett Wilson and Treylon Burks broke 50, and Chris Olave topped 40 yards and scored a 2-point conversion. Later pick Kyle Philips also showed well in the opener leading the Titans in targets, catches, and receiving yards. The second-round rookies – Christian Watson, Wan’dale Robinson, Skyy Moore, George Pickens, and Alec Pierce – didn’t perform nearly as well. They’ll have chances to get things turned around, I’m sure.

For the running backs, Dameon Pierce disappointed while Breece Hall earned a whopping 10 targets and Isiah Pacheco topped a dozen PPR points in week 1. Many other ballyhooed choices like James Cook, Isaiah Spiller, Zamir White, and Tyler Allgeier had forgettable or non-existent performances. All of those players would be wise to take a page from Bill Belichick and just say ‘we’re on to week 2.’

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Any data on route participation, air yards, and other usage rates are per Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report on Pro Football Focus. Let’s dive into week 2…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

NONE – Drake London was close to getting inclusion here, but we’re not quite there yet with any of the rookies to call them an auto-start in fantasy.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

RB Breece Hall, NYJ (Wk. 2: @Cle.): Michael Carter worked as the lead back in the opener, but Hall handled all the hurry-up offense snaps and benefitted greatly from the dump-off passes that came with it. The Jets are nearly a TD underdog this week to Cleveland, so they could be in scramble mode late in the game again. It’s worth noting that Carter played a large share of the long down & distance snaps in week 1, so there is risk in trusting Hall here, but I like his role to grow a bit this week and think he's a reasonable flex option in most formats. Hall handled 100% of the short down & distance snaps in week 1, so the ball is likely going to him in any goal-line opportunities.

WR Drake London, ATL (Wk. 2: @LAR): London was questionable last week with a knee injury that lingered throughout the preseason, but he wasn’t held back at all in the opener, logging an 82% route participation rate and 31% of the team’s air yards. He faced a daunting defensive matchup with Marshon Lattimore, and still managed to post 5-74 on 7 targets. London looks like the real deal 1 week into his career. Jalen Ramsey may look like another daunting matchup in week 2, but the Rams allowed the 10th-most PPR points last season to wide receivers lined up on the perimeter, per Sports Info Solutions (SIS), and allowed the most WR PPR points in the NFL in week 1. The Falcons are 10-point underdogs in this game, so negative game script should force them to throw more than they did in the opener. London should be a solid WR3 in this matchup.

WR Jahan Dotson, WAS (Wk. 2: @Det.): Dotson made a splash in his debut, finding the end zone twice against the Jaguars Sunday. His target share could’ve been better, but he was in a route on 90% of the team dropbacks and led the team with a 29% air yard share. Curtis Samuel is going to be a thing in this offense, so there are a lot of weapons to split the targets between. There is hope that the Commanders will be a pass-heavy offense, and there will be enough volume to go around, but I don’t want to get ahead of myself after a 1-game sample size. The Lions are a great matchup for wide receivers. They allowed the 3^rd-highest passer rating in the NFL last season and gave up the 8^th-most PPR points to perimeter WRs in week 1 per SIS. Curtis Samuel spends most of his time in the slot, which makes Dotson and Terry McLaurin the stronger plays here. Dotson is a solid WR3 in a matchup that has shoot-out potential.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

RB Dameon Pierce, HOU (Wk. 2: @Den.): Pierce’s week 1 couldn’t have gone much worse than it did given the expectations going in. Pierce was announced as the starting running back ahead of the opener. The expectation was that he would handle the early-down work and that Rex Burkhead would operate as the receiving back. Instead, Pierce played just 29% of the offensive snaps and handled just 41% of the team’s rushing attempts in a game where the Texans led for much of the game. Head coach Lovie Smith said he wants to get Pierce a bigger workload going forward, but it’s hard to see that happening this week when the Texans are a 10-point underdog to the Broncos. Denver isn’t an especially daunting run defense. They ranked 20^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA in 2021 and allowed 5 yards per carry to Rashaad Penny in week 1, but I expect Rex Burkhead to handle the bulk of the work again in a game where the Broncos’ offense gets on track and the Texans play from behind. Pierce likely sees a similar 10-12 touches in this one.

RB Isiah Pacheco, KC (Wk. 2: vs. LAC): Pacheco posted a strong NFL debut with 62 rushing yards and a TD, but 9 of those carries and the score came in the 4^th quarter with the Chiefs leading by more than 20 points. Pacheco is the RB3 in this offense. CEH is the lead back on early downs, and Jerick McKinnon is the passing-down back. Pacheco gets the scraps and the garbage time. Week 2 doesn’t seem like a great one to bet on garbage time with the Chiefs favored by just 3 points against a very strong Chargers team. Pacheco won’t see enough work to be serviceable for fantasy purposes.

RB Rachaad White, TB (Wk. 2: vs. @NO): White handled 8 touches in week one working behind Leonard Fournette, but 5 of those touches came in the 4^th quarter with Tampa up by multiple scores. Fournette handled almost all the backfield work while the game was still competitive. The game this week should be competitive throughout against a Saints team that usually gives Tom Brady trouble. Tampa Bay is 0-4 against the Saints in the regular season with Brady at the helm. I expect White’s role to grow as the season goes on, but for now he’ll need a Fournette injury to be startable in fantasy.

WRs Treylon Burks & Kyle Philips, TEN (Wk. 2: @Buf.): Philips led the Titans pass catchers in pretty much all categories in week 1 except touchdowns, but it’s worth noting that all but 1 of his snaps came in 11 personnel, a formation the Titans were in less than 60% of the time in 2021. He also draws veteran slot corner Taron Johnson this week, the toughest individual matchup in this secondary. I like Burks’ chances at a solid game better than Philips in this one, but he was in a route for just 36% of Tannehill’s dropbacks in week 1, so you’re counting on him putting up production in limited snaps if you trot him out there. The Bills did allow the 5^th-most PPR points to perimeter WRs in week one per SIS, but overall, this is a formidable defense. I wouldn’t want to trust a player to have a big game against them on limited snaps.

WR George Pickens, PIT (Wk. 2: vs. NE): Pickens started in week one and was in a route on 91% of Mitch Trubisky’s dropbacks in the opener, but he spent most of the day running wind sprints. The Steelers targeted Pickens just 3 times in 38 pass attempts as Diontae Johnson and Pat Freiermuth dominated targets. There is some reason for optimism for Pickens in week two. Pro Football Focus projects his most frequent week 2 opponent to be New England CB Jonathan Jones, who stands just 5’10” (Pickens is 6’3”). New England is also notorious for schematically taking away the opponent’s best weapons. Their focus should be in slowing down Diontae, which could create more opportunities for Pickens. I expect Pickens to see more than 3 targets in this one, and possibly a couple of looks in the red zone, but he’s a boom-or-bust WR4 until we see more consistency.

WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 2: @Cle.): Wilson earned a healthy 8 targets in the opener, but he split work with Corey Davis and Braxton Berrios behind WR1 Elijah Moore. Wilson was in a route on just 56% of Joe Flacco’s dropbacks, and the 8 targets look less impressive when you realize the Jets threw the ball 59 times in the opener. I wouldn’t count on a repeat of that kind of overall passing volume in a game that should be more competitive with Cleveland. Wilson did have a solid 24% air yardage share in his limited snaps and was targeted on half of the throws that went into the end zone, so the arrow is pointing up as Wilson gets more playing time. I just wouldn’t be eager to plug him into lineups when I’m expecting lower overall pass volume against a defense that ranked 7^th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA in 2021 (and 8^th in that stat in week 1). I’d wait a little longer to start getting Wilson into lineups.

WR Chris Olave, NO (Wk. 2: vs. TB): Olave played a full-time role in the opener, logging an 83% route participation rate, and he looked good for the most part. Unfortunately, the bulk of the targets went to Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry, and there’s reason to think that could happen again. PFF projects Olave to square off mostly with Bucs #1 CB Carlton Davis in this game, and Tampa does a solid job at limiting fantasy points to perimeter WRs. Per SIS, the Bucs allowed the 14^th-fewest PPR points to perimeter wide receivers in 2021 and allowed the 9^th-fewest to them in week 1. Jarvis Landry lines up predominantly in the slot, so it could be Landry who has the biggest day of the New Orleans pass catchers in a tough matchup. You could take a shot on Olave in lineups since he has a full-time role, but I’d prefer both Landry and Thomas this week ahead of him.

WRs Christian Watson & Romeo Doubs, GB (Wk. 2: vs. Chi.):  It was a forgettable game for the Packers wide receivers in week 1 with Christian Watson dropping a wide-open deep ball and all of the WRs failing to establish themselves in Allen Lazard’s absence. Expectations were high for Romeo Doubs after he starred in the preseason, but in week one it was running back AJ Dillon who led the team in targets and receiving yards. Lazard is practicing ahead of this week’s matchup, which will make a breakout for either rookie WR even tougher. Watson led the wide receivers in routes run and Doubs finished fourth in week 1, but all the top 4 receivers rotated pretty evenly. Watson was drafted in the 2^nd round and seemed to be ahead of Doubs in week 1 despite missing a lot of training camp with an injury. If I had to bet on one of the duo being the WR2 going forward behind Lazard, my bet would be on Watson, but I’m not sure I’d want to start any of them in fantasy other than Lazard. Aaron Rodgers key takeaway after week 1 is that the Packers need to get their running backs more involved. The running backs had a 31.4% target share in the opener.

WR Alec Pierce, IND (Wk. 2: @Jax.): Pierce was in a route on two-thirds of Matt Ryan’s 54 dropbacks in week 1, but that resulted in just 2 catch-less targets. Michael Pittman Jr, Kylen Granson, and the running backs dominated targets, with Pierce duking it out with Parris Campbell and Ashton Dulin for the scraps. He’ll earn more opportunities as the season goes on, but you can’t trust him in season-long lineups even in a plus matchup against the Jaguars. Pierce popped up on the injury report Wednesday with news he’s in the concussion protocol, making him an even worse week 2 option.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

QB Bailey Zappe, NE (Wk. 2: @Pit.): Mac Jones suffered a back injury on Sunday against Miami, opening the door for a slim chance that Zappe is the first rookie QB to make a start this season. It’s more likely that the Patriots would turn to Brian Hoyer than Zappe if Jones sits, but if Zappe does get the nod, I wouldn’t consider him as an option even in 2-QB leagues. The Steelers forced 4 turnovers from Joe Burrow last weekend, and the Pats’ offense was a mess with Jones healthy in week 1. This one could be ugly if Zappe gets the chance to start, but I think the Patriots’ game plan would be to hide him as much as possible with a run-heavy attack.

RB James Cook, BUF (Wk. 2: vs. Ten.): Cook was unsurprisingly part of a 3-way backfield with Devin Singletary and Zack Moss in week 1. What was surprising was that he was a distant 3^rd in the pecking order. Cook’s first touch didn’t come until the 2^nd quarter after both of his teammates had handled multiple touches, and the rookie promptly put the ball on the turf. He played just 2 additional snaps after the fumble and didn’t touch the ball again. I don’t expect it to be a multi-week doghouse situation for Cook, but he’s going to have to earn back that trust. You can’t start him in week 2.

RB Isaiah Spiller, LAC (Wk. 2: @KC): Spiller was a healthy scratch behind Joshua Kelley and Sony Michel last week, and there’s no reason to think he won’t be in the same situation in week 2. He doesn’t need to be rostered in redraft leagues.

RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL (Wk. 2: @LAR): Like Isaiah Spiller, Allgeier was also inactive in week 1. The Falcons rolled with Cordarrelle Patterson and Damien Williams handling most of the backfield work, and that should continue here. I’m fine with holding onto Allgeier in deeper leagues in hopes he moves up the depth chart a la Rhamondre Stevenson in New England last season, but he doesn’t offer much immediate value.

WR Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG (Wk. 2: vs. Car.): Robinson was in line for a big role in week 1, but that was derailed early on as he was sidelined by a knee injury in the first half Sunday. The Giants’ WR depth chart is a fluid situation from week to week. Kadarius Toney may be the most explosive player in the group, but he was seemingly in the doghouse in week 1 with just 7 snaps played. Sterling Shepard scored a long TD but was otherwise barely targeted in his return from an Achilles tear. Richie James led the gang with 6 targets. Robinson isn’t practicing as of Wednesday, so he seems less than likely to play, but it’ll be tough to trust him in lineups even if he’s active with limited practice time coming off the injury.

WR Skyy Moore, KC (Wk. 2: vs. LAC): Patrick Mahomes put on an absolute clinic in week 1, shredding the Cardinals to the tune of 360 yards and 5 touchdowns. Unfortunately, not much of that went to Skyy Moore. The rookie was in a route for just 16% of Mahomes’ dropbacks, and he caught his only target for 30 yards. He should be stashed in most formats, but it may take him some time to climb the depth chart to get ahead of either Marquez Valdes-Scantling or Mecole Hardman for playing time. You can’t count on Moore in lineups yet.

WR David Bell, CLE (Wk. 2: vs. NYJ): Bell, like much of the Browns’ passing attack, wasn’t very useful for fantasy purposes in week 1 with Jacoby Brissett under center. He also wasn’t on the field very much. Bell worked as the team’s 4^th WR, running a route on just 19% of the team’s dropbacks. The Browns’ offense is going to run through Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt so long as Brissett is at QB. There will be limited passing targets to go around, and Bell is low in the pecking order for now. He shouldn’t be rostered in most redraft formats.

WR Velus Jones Jr., CHI (Wk. 2: @GB): Jones missed week 1 with a hamstring injury, but he has a chance to suit up for week 2 after getting in a limited practice on Wednesday. We still don’t know how high on the depth chart Jones will be when healthy, and it’s likely he’ll be eased back in off the hamstring injury even if he was ticketed for a meaningful role. Leave him parked on the bench in deeper leagues where you’ve got him rostered until we see what his usage is going to look like.

TE Isaiah Likely, BAL (Wk. 2: vs. Mia.): Likely put up a goose egg on the scoreboard for fantasy last week, but the Ravens weren’t lying about him being on the field a decent amount. Likely was in a route on 51% of the team’s dropbacks and drew 4 targets in the opener against the Jets. He just didn’t catch any of them. It was a promising sign that he’ll be involved in the offense, but a 51% route participation rate isn’t high enough to trust him in fantasy lineups, especially as the offense will probably run more when JK Dobbins returns to the lineup. Likely is worth monitoring, and he’ll be an interesting weekly dart throw for DFS purposes and deep leagues, but it will probably take a Mark Andrews injury to unlock any true upside for most redraft formats.

TE Daniel Bellinger, NYG (Wk. 2: vs. Car.): Bellinger worked as the starting tight end for the Giants in week 1, but it wouldn’t be surprising if you didn’t notice that. He was on the field for 48% of the offensive snaps but was only in a route on 29% of the team dropbacks and wasn’t targeted once. The tight end position just isn’t involved enough in the offense here to use Bellinger in lineups.

TE Trey McBride, ARI (Wk. 2: @LV): McBride was a healthy scratch in week 1 with Zach Ertz recovered from his preseason injury. The Cardinals are siding with the experience of Maxx Williams over the playmaking ability of McBride for the TE2 role in the early part of the season. The Raiders are a good TE matchup if you knew McBride would have a role (allowed the 4^th-most TE points in 2021, and the 5^th-most in week 1), but we can’t count on him having that role.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Jaylen Warren, PIT (Wk. 2: vs. NE): Warren was one of the surprises of the preseason, winning the RB2 job in Pittsburgh behind Najee Harris as an undrafted free agent. Normally that role wouldn’t result in a lot of work. Harris handled 86.4% of the backfield touches in Pittsburgh last season, but he also suffered a Lisfranc foot injury in the preseason, one that resurfaced in week 1. It sounds like Najee should be good to go in week 2, but it also sounds like an injury that will linger throughout the season. Warren could play a bigger role as the team tries to manage the foot injury and should function as the workhorse back if it were to sideline Harris in any games. Warren would be a low-end RB2 if Najee somehow ended up missing Sunday’s game with the Patriots, and he shouldn’t be on your league’s waiver wire.

RBs Tyrion Davis-Price & Jordan Mason, SF (Wk. 2: vs. Sea.): Elijah Mitchell suffered a serious knee injury in week 1 and is expected to be out for half the season, opening a huge hole in the San Francisco backfield. Jeff Wilson Jr. will likely step into the lead back role, but that’s not a certainty and Wilson hasn’t exactly been a beacon of health over the past few seasons. Enough of this rushing workload will be handled by Trey Lance and Deebo Samuel that they’re not likely to have more than one relevant fantasy RB at a time, but both TDP and Mason are worth a stash on the off chance that they’re the one guy or that Wilson gets hurt. Davis-Price was inactive in week 1, so it’s been assumed he’s behind Mason on the depth chart, but I wouldn’t be so sure. Mason played just 5 snaps in week 1, all on special teams, so it’s possible special teams are the reason he was active ahead of Davis-Price. TDP has the higher draft capital of the pair (3^rd round pick vs UDFA), but both are worth a stash. The 49ers are 9.5-point favorites in week 2, so there’s a real chance whichever back gets the RB2 role sees an extended opportunity in garbage time if the game gets out of hand.

RB Pierre Strong Jr., NE (Wk. 2: @Pit.): Strong was inactive in week 1, but the Patriots placed Ty Montgomery on injured reserve after the game. Montgomery served as the primary receiving back in the opener, handling 91% of the long down & distance snaps and garnering 4 targets, and it remains an open question who will get the passing down work in this backfield while he’s out. The Patriots’ offense has ranked in the top-10 in RB target share every single season since 2016 and the backfield had a 30% target share in week 1. Being the pass-catching back in this offense has typically been a valuable role. Neither Damien Harris nor Rhamondre Stevenson has a skill set that stands out as a natural fit to take on those duties, which means Strong has a chance to take over. It’s far from a certainty, but in deep leagues, it may be worth stashing Strong now for free in hopes that he takes that job rather than trying to outbid others on waivers next week after we learn he did take it. 

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you continue your strong start to the season or get it back on track if week 1 didn’t go according to plan. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 2 was another wild one around the NFL. We saw two huge comebacks from the Jets and Dolphins, and a near comeback by the Falcons in another weekend that made us question everything we think we know about the NFL. One of the big early season takeaways in fantasy has been that the top wide receivers have outperformed the top running backs, and that has held true for the rookies as well. All 5 first-round rookie WRs have flashed the potential that made them day 1 picks, but among the rookie running backs only Breece Hall has logged a top-20 finish at the position. Have those receivers done enough to warrant a starting spot in your fantasy lineups? That’s what I’m here to dive into today, along with all the other fantasy relevant rookies.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Any data on route participation, air yards, and other usage rates are per Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report on Pro Football Focus.

Let’s get into week 3…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

WR Drake London, ATL (Wk. 3: @Sea.): I’ve seen enough from London through 2 weeks to move him into auto-start territory. He’s topped 70 yards in both games so far, and topped 80% route participation, a 20% target share, and a 30% air yard share in each. London is the #1 target in this passing game, not Kyle Pitts. Seattle ranks 26^th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA stat, and they’ve allowed 3 different perimeter receivers to top 60 yards in the first 2 weeks. London should be #4, and he should be in your lineups unless you have nothing but studs ahead of him.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

RB Dameon Pierce, HOU (Wk. 3: @Chi.): Lovie Smith stayed true to his word when he talked about wanting to get Pierce more involved in week 2. Pierce played the role we thought he was ticketed for in week 1, handling 63% of the offensive snaps and 79% of the team rushing attempts. He also handled the team’s only rushing attempt inside the opponent’s 5-yard line. That role didn’t amount to a huge fantasy day against a solid Denver defense, but Pierce acquitted himself well and gets to face a much weaker opponent in week 3. The Bears have allowed the 11^th-most RB points per game and rank 24^th in run defense DVOA. The Texans are only 2.5-point underdogs, so they should keep game script neutral enough to keep running. Pierce is a good bet for 15+ touches in a plus matchup. He’s a borderline RB2 this week.

WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 3: vs. Cin.): Wilson posted the strongest rookie performance of the season to-date last Sunday, piling up 8-102-2 on 14 targets in a riveting comeback win against the Browns. It’s true that his day wouldn’t have been quite as impressive if Nick Chubb had just gone down at the 1-yard line at the 2-minute warning, but Wilson had already done enough to be the PPR WR16 for the week prior to that play. The biggest issue for Wilson moving forward is that he plays in a crowded passing attack. Both Elijah Moore and Corey Davis were on the field more than Wilson in the first two weeks, and Moore may be due for a get-right game. The Jets move their WRs around enough that no individual matchup should be too concerning, but the corner Wilson projects to face off with the most, Mike Hilton, has been the Bengals best cover corner through the first two weeks. The Bengals still rank just 24^th in pass defense DVOA as a unit and Wilson’s performance last weekend demonstrated that he can be fired up as an upside WR3 going forward. It wouldn’t be crazy if Wilson emerged as the Jets’ WR1 this season.

WR Chris Olave, NO (Wk. 3: @Car.): Olave’s final stat line from week 2 looked solid on its own, but the underlying usage that came with it hints at bigger things to come for the rookie. Olave ran more routes than Jarvis Landry for the 2^nd straight game, and he earned a 33% target share and a whopping 62% air yardage share. He also boasted a 56% target share on third downs. Jameis Winston is looking for Olave early and often, he’s looking for him deep, and he’s looking for him in clutch moments. There is plenty of competition for targets in this offense with Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, and Jarvis Landry around, but Olave is going to play a big role all year. The Panthers look like a daunting matchup, allowing the 3^rd-fewest WR points per game, but they’ve faced two lackluster passing attacks in the Jacoby Brissett-led Browns and the Daniel Jones-led Giants. I expect the Saints to have more success throwing the ball than either of those teams did, and I expect the Panthers to play more aggressively than they did in the first two weeks. The Panthers blitzed on just 16% of their defensive plays in the first two weeks, 6^th-lowest in the NFL, but they were at 33.7% last season (3^rd-highest). If they blitz more on Sunday, it should give Olave more one-on-one matchups that he can turn into big plays. He could have huge upside as your WR3 in this one.

WR Treylon Burks, TEN (Wk. 3: vs. LV): Burks still isn’t getting on the field as much as you’d like him to if you’re going to trust him in lineups, but his playing time made a big leap in week 2 and the Titans are going out of their way to get him the ball when he’s in the game. The total snaps look similar from week 1 to week 2, but Burks was on the field for just 36% of the Titans’ passing plays in week 1, and that number jumped to 66% in week two prior to the starters being pulled in garbage time. He’s also being targeted on a ridiculous 38% of his routes run. Many of those targets have been in space where Burks can run after the catch – 60% of his yards on the season have been after the catch – and the Raiders have allowed the 7^th-most yards after catch in the league and rank just 21^st in pass defense DVOA. There is a boom-or-bust element to Burks given his inconsistent usage so far, but this looks like a great spot for him to post 12+ PPR points.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

RB Breece Hall, NYJ (Wk. 3: vs. Cin.): Hall has continued to impress when he gets opportunities. He checked in as the PPR RB14 in week 2 on just 8 touches, but there are underlying reasons for concern about his usage. Hall was on the field for just 27% of the offensive snaps and saw his target number drop from 10 in week 1 down to 1 in week 2 as Ty Johnson got into the mix and made this a 3-man backfield. The Bengals have allowed the 11^th-fewest RB points per game, holding Najee Harris to 25 scrimmage yards and a TD on 12 touches week 1, then holding Zeke Elliott to 49 yards on 16 touches in week 2. Only Tony Pollard has really played well against them through two weeks, and nearly half of Pollard’s PPR production came through the air. If you trust Hall in your lineup this week, you’d have to be expecting a bounce-back in his playing time, or you’d have to be counting on him doing a lot of damage on just a few touches.  I’d view him as a low-end RB3 in this one.

RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL (Wk. 3: @Sea.): Allgeier stepped into a sizable role in week 2 with Damien Williams on IR. He drew the same number of rushing attempts as C-Patt, but didn’t do a ton with them, finishing with just 30 yards on 10 carries. The matchup this week might look appealing with Seattle allowing the 4^th-most RB PPR points per game, but they rank 8^th in run defense DVOA and have given up more than half of those RB points through the air. Allgeier is not a factor in the passing game. Vegas has this game as a Pick’Em, so game script should be neutral enough that Atlanta can keep running, but without a passing down role you’re just hoping for a touchdown from Allgeier if you play him.

RB Kenneth Walker III, SEA (Wk. 3: vs. Atl.): Walker made his NFL debut in week 2, but for the time being he appears to have a low value role in a bad offense. Walker split the early down work with Rashaad Penny, handling 4 carries and 3 targets on Sunday. Only one of those opportunities came on a 3^rd down. Travis Homer continues to see the most valuable snaps, playing 93% of the short down and distance snaps, 93% of the long down and distance snaps, and 100% of the 2-minute drill snaps so far this season. The Seahawks’ offense isn’t one where you want to be chasing part-time players, especially if they aren’t seeing the most valuable work. Through two weeks Seattle ranks dead last in plays run, 31^st in offensive yards, and 29^th in points scored. Steer clear of Walker, even in a seemingly good matchup against a bad Falcons’ defense.

RB Jordan Mason, SF (Wk. 3: @Den.): The 49ers made sure to get multiple RBs involved last week with Elijah Mitchell sidelined, as Jeff Wilson Jr. and Tyrion Davis-Price split the backfield work fairly evenly against the Seahawks. After the game it was announced that TDP suffered a high ankle sprain that will sideline him for multiple weeks. Mason should be the next man up, but it remains to be seen if he’ll see a similar split of the rushing work with Wilson, and the 49ers did promote Marlon Mack from the practice squad to the active roster. I’d be surprised if Mason logs zero offensive touches for a third straight game, but his role is very uncertain in a matchup with a Denver team that has allowed the 2^nd-fewest RB points per game. You can find better options.

RB Isiah Pacheco, KC (Wk. 3: @Ind.): With no garbage time work to be had in week 2 for Pacheco, his playing time dropped to just 5 snaps last Thursday. He carried twice for 6 yards. Kansas City is a touchdown favorite in this game, so there’s a chance at garbage time against a Colts team that looked lifeless against the Jaguars last weekend, but the Colts do rank 3^rd in run defense DVOA. This isn’t a game where garbage time work is likely to add up to a useful fantasy game.

WR Jahan Dotson, WAS (Wk. 3: vs. Phi.): Dotson has been fantastic for the first two weeks of the season, finishing as a top-20 WR each week, but I don’t like his chances to make it 3-for-3. The Eagles pose a much tougher matchup than either the Jaguars or Lions presented. Curtis Samuel will handle most of the slot work, which means Dotson will mostly work against Darius Slay and James Bradberry on the perimeter. Through two games the Eagles have allowed a total of 22.7 PPR points to receivers lined up on the perimeter per Sports Info Solutions. Curtis Samuel has led the Commanders in targets in each of the first two weeks, and the defensive matchup in this one should persuade the Commanders to repeat that in week 3. If you start Dotson, you’re praying for him to find the end zone again, and Philly has allowed just 2 wide receiver scores through 2 weeks.

WR George Pickens, PIT (Wk. 3: @Cle.): I fell into the trap last weekend of believing that Pickens could be a beneficiary of the Patriots focusing on slowing Diontae Johnson, but the rookie finished with just 1 catch on 3 targets. Week 3 seems to set up the same way with the Browns possibly shadowing Johnson with their #1 CB Denzel Ward. Ward hasn’t been used as a shadow corner so far in 2022, but he was used in that capacity against Diontae last season. Pickens is a full-time player, running a route on more than 90% of the team dropbacks in each of the first 2 weeks, and the Browns have allowed the 7^th-most WR points per game. There is upside for a useful fantasy day here for Pickens, but it’s hard to count on him seeing meaningful targets right now. Pittsburgh is using him as a decoy to clear underneath space for the other receivers. Steelers’ beat writer Mark Kaboly noted that Pickens has run 62 routes with vertical releases out of 74 total routes run, and that for all but a handful of those he had single coverage with no safety help, and he’s still only seen 5 targets come his way.

WRs Romeo Doubs & Christian Watson, GB (Wk. 3: @TB): With Allen Lazard back in action in week 2, both Doubs and Watson became a lot harder to trust in fantasy. Lazard immediately came back to a 90% route participation rate in his return, and among the other WRs only Sammy Watkins registered even a 50% rate. No one other than Lazard has a safe weekly role right now. The Bucs have allowed the 8^th-fewest WR points per game so far and rank 10^th in pass defense DVOA, so this is a bad matchup to hope for one of the rookies to post a good performance despite their limited playing time. There was an update Thursday that all of Lazard, Watkins and Watson were held out of practice, but reports have made it sound like it was a coordinated day off for all 3, and shouldn’t be a concern for their availability Sunday.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

QB Malik Willis, TEN (Wk. 3: vs. LV): I mention Willis here because he saw some live action in week 2 as the Titans were blown out in Buffalo. He looked as overmatched as a 3^rd-round rookie should in his first NFL action, completing just 1-of-4 passes for 6 yards and losing a fumble. Willis does offer a ton of rushing upside if he gets the opportunity to play, and you may be thinking the 0-2 Titans could make a switch if things continue to spiral, but you should pump the brakes here. The Titans are the reigning #1 seed in the AFC and they won’t be quick to throw in the towel. Tannehill is going to get several more weeks to right the ship before Willis will be given a chance, barring injury.

RB Rachaad White, TB (Wk. 3: vs. GB): White isn’t getting enough opportunity behind Leonard Fournette right now to have standalone value in fantasy lineups. As the season progresses, he should get work in garbage time and should see pass-catching opportunities when the team is playing from behind, but with the Bucs favored by just 1 point this week, I don’t expect White to get many opportunities against Green Bay. Keep him sidelined this week.

RB James Cook, BUF (Wk. 3: @Mia.): Cook got some additional run in week 2 compared to his usage in the opener, but much of it came in garbage time after the Bills had already vanquished the Titans. He rushed 11 times for 53 yards in the game, but 10 of those carries came on the last two drives of the game in the 4^th quarter. He’s still behind Devin Singletary and Zack Moss on the depth chart, and no team has allowed fewer RB fantasy points through two weeks than the Dolphins.

RB Jaylen Warren, PIT (Wk. 3: @Cle.): Warren remains a guy you should be holding onto as a handcuff to Najee Harris, but he has very little standalone value if Harris is playing. Warren handled just 4 carries and 1 target last week, and I wouldn’t expect much more than that this week.

RBs Zander Horvath & Isaiah Spiller, LAC (Wk. 3: vs. Jax.): Spiller has been inactive in each of the first two weeks of the season, so I’m not worried anyone will start him, but I want to make sure none of you are planning to get cute with Zander Horvath after he scored a TD in each of the first two games of the season. He played a total of 23 snaps in those games and has 4 touches to his name. You likely get less than 2 fantasy points if he doesn’t manage to find his way into the end zone again.

WR Kyle Philips, TEN (Wk. 3: vs. LV): Philips was a hot waiver wire name after he led the Titans in targets, catches and receiving yards in week 1, but he went from the penthouse to the outhouse in week 2. The rookie played just 23 offensive snaps on Monday night, earning just 1 target for a 5-yard catch. He seems to be clearly working as the WR4 behind Robert Woods, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Treylon Burks. It appears his two turnovers in the first two games may have put a dent in his playing time. I’d steer clear, even against a Vegas defense that has allowed the 3^rd-most PPR points to wide receivers lined up in the slot (per Sports Info Solutions).

WR David Bell, CLE (Wk. 3: vs. Pit.): Bell saw an uptick in his usage in week 2, nearly doubling his route participation rate from 21% in week 1 to 39% on Sunday, but he was targeted just once. The simple fact here is that you can’t rely on any wide receivers in this offense other than Amari Cooper as long as Jacoby Brissett is under center. Bell could be an intriguing stash in PPR leagues later in the year as the end of Deshaun Watson’s suspension nears.

WR Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG (Wk. 3: vs. Dal.): Wan’Dale missed week 2 with injury, and it seems to be up in the air whether he’ll be able to return this week or not. He still wasn’t practicing as of Thursday. This WR group is in flux for week 3. Kadarius Toney is battling an injury alongside Robinson, and veteran Kenny Golladay is airing his frustrations with his role publicly. There could be a role for Robinson if he’s able to play, but not one you can trust in fantasy lineups. The Cowboys rank 2^nd in pass defense DVOA.

WR Skyy Moore, KC (Wk. 3: @Ind.): Moore was on the field for just 2 offensive snaps in week 2. He’s currently operating as the team’s WR5 and punt returner. You can hold in deeper leagues. His role is probably going to grow eventually, especially after OC Eric Bieniemy guaranteed that he would play more than 2 snaps moving forward, but you still can’t trust him in week 3 fantasy lineups.

WR Khalil Shakir, BUF (Wk. 3: @Mia.): Shakir found his way onto the field for 24 offensive snaps in week 2 with Gabe Davis sidelined, but he turned them into just 2 catch-less targets. Even if Davis sits again, the only hope for fantasy relevance here would be a splash play TD. Davis did get in a limited practice on Wednesday and said Thursday that he’s 100% sure he’s going to play.

WR Velus Jones Jr., CHI (Wk. 3: vs. Hou.): Jones may return from injury and make his NFL debut this week, but do you really want to consider playing the 4^th-best option in a passing game that’s averaged 14 pass attempts per game in the last 2 weeks? Believe it or not, they tried 6 FEWER passes in week 2 against the Packers than they did in the torrential downpour in week 1. Stay far away from the receiving options in this offense for now.

WR Jalen Tolbert, DAL (Wk. 3: @NYG): Tolbert has been a healthy scratch in each of the first two weeks, working behind such stalwart NFL receivers as Dennis Houston and Semi Fehoko, and his path to playing time may get a bit longer this week with the potential return of Michael Gallup. There isn’t a good reason to be holding onto Tolbert in redraft leagues at this point.

TE Daniel Bellinger, NYG (Wk. 3: vs. Dal.): Bellinger saw his first target of the season last week, and he turned it into his first career touchdown, but he remains an afterthought in this offense. The rookie was in a route on just 46% of the team’s passing dropbacks, and only saw the 1 target.

TE Trey McBride, ARI (Wk. 3: vs. LAR): McBride was active for the first time in week 2, but he was on the field for just 1 snap while Zach Ertz was targeted 11 times. McBride is waiver fodder in redraft leagues.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Kenny Pickett, PIT (Wk. 3: @Cle.): We’re getting close to the time when the Steelers may start to consider making a QB change. Their weapons are too good for this team to be averaging 255 offensive yards and less than 20 points per game, and George Pickens may have stirred up some trouble when he said after Sunday’s game that he feels like all the receivers are getting open. That seems to insinuate that the issue is the guy getting them the ball. Mike Tomlin has never had a losing record as head coach of the Steelers, and I don’t expect him to accept losing this year. If Trubisky’s poor play continues, the Steelers will give the rookie a shot sooner rather than later. In Superflex leagues you would be wise to pick him up before that switch happens rather than pay up in FAAB afterward. There’s no guarantee that Pickett will be better than Trubisky, but with these weapons he could be a low-end QB2 if he’s even a marginal upgrade over Mitch. He’d have upside for more if he’s a bigger upgrade than that.

WR Alec Pierce, IND (Wk. 3: vs. KC): This is contingent on Michael Pittman being out again in week 3, but Pierce has some sneaky upside in a game where the Colts should be throwing plenty. With Pittman and Pierce both out in week 2, Parris Cambell led the team in routes run, but it was Ashton Dulin who was the most productive. Dulin posted 5-79 on 7 targets and seems like a guy who could carve out a role as the legit WR2 behind Pittman. Dulin’s strong game still left enough work for Dez Patmon to earn 6 targets and Mike Strachan to earn 3. Pierce was a full participant in practice to start the week and would play ahead of both Patmon and Strachan this week. The Chiefs have allowed the 9^th-most WR points per game so far, and Pierce costs just $200 in DraftKings Showdown contests this week.

TE Isaiah Likely, BAL (Wk. 3: @NE): Devin Duvernay left last Sunday’s contest with a concussion, and if he doesn’t return in time for week 3 Likely should see an uptick in targets. The Patriots’ defense focuses on limiting the opponent’s best options, so their defensive attention should be on Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman. They seemed to struggle to contain Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle but compared to Baltimore in week 2 the Pats basically shut them down, and New England held Diontae Johnson to 6-57 in week 2. Likely has emerged as a great option to be that next target, especially if Duvernay sits. Isaiah went 4-43 on 5 targets in week 2 and could be in for a bigger role in this one. He’s a risky option for season long leagues, but he’s underpriced for showdown slate contests on DraftKings at just $1,800.

TE Jake Ferguson, DAL (Wk. 3: @NYG): Dalton Schultz is battling a PCL injury that could sideline him for week 3 and possibly longer, and Ferguson would be the next man up. The matchup isn’t ideal against a Giants’ defense that has allowed the 9^th-fewest TE points so far, but Ferguson costs the minimum in DFS contests on DraftKings and will likely have a low salary in showdown contests as well. Ferguson didn’t put up gaudy receiving yardage totals in college, but he played for a Wisconsin team that didn’t throw a ton. He put up more than a 20% receiving yardage share as a freshman. Ferguson doesn’t have a high ceiling, but he’s worth a stash in deeper season-long leagues and dynasty formats on the chance that Schultz’s injury lingers.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you continue your strong start to the season or get it back on track if the first couple weeks haven’t gone your way. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 3 was another wild one in the NFL that continued to see depressed offensive outputs. Scoring for the first 3 weeks is down more than 2 points per game per team from last season. Maybe it’s because of all the high-end offensive personnel movement last offseason, maybe it’s because of officials letting DBs get away with more physical play, but no matter the reason I think all of us are ready to never have to watch another 11-10 game in primetime again.

Many of the rookies continued strong starts to their seasons. Breece Hall, Chris Olave, Drake London, and Romeo Doubs were the stars of week 3, with Jahan Dotson and Garrett Wilson coming back down to earth a bit. Week 4 should be full of riveting matchups. Only 3 games this week opened with a point spread of more than 3.5 points. It should make for some tough lineup decisions in your fantasy leagues, but luckily, I’m here to help you sort through the rookies again!

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Any data on route participation, air yards, and other usage rates are per Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report on Pro Football Focus.

Let’s get into week 4…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

WR Chris Olave, NO (Wk. 4: vs. Min.): Olave has earned 13 targets in each of the last 2 weeks, and both Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry are battling injuries that could keep them out or limit them in week 4. The Vikings rank just 20^th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 14^th-most WR points per game. This isn’t a matchup to be afraid of, and Olave is quickly establishing himself as the best receiver in this offense. You shouldn’t be sitting him in what could be another big day for the youngster.

WR Drake London, ATL (Wk. 4: vs. Cle.): London took a back seat in target share to Kyle Pitts for the first time this season in week 3, and he still found the end zone and finished the week as a WR3. The Browns have allowed the 10^th-most WR points per game, and while they had some success slowing opposing WR1s in DJ Moore and Elijah Moore, they allowed 8-84 on 11 targets last week to Diontae Johnson. Don’t let Denzel Ward scare you off starting London this week. He should be a WR3 or better again.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

RB Breece Hall, NYJ (Wk. 4: @Pit.): Hall out-snapped Michael Carter for the first time in week 3, and he saw double-digit targets for the second time this season. He’s been a double-digit PPR scorer in all 3 games so far, his playing time continues to grow each week, and this week he faces a Pittsburgh defense that has allowed the 6^th-most RB points per game. It all adds up to Hall being a slam dunk RB2 this week, but there is a least some risk to consider with Zach Wilson returning to play quarterback. Since the start of last season, we’ve seen running backs fare better as receivers with Mike White and Joe Flacco under center than with Zach Wilson, and more than 70% of Breece Hall’s PPR points this year have come from receiving production. I still like Hall here as a high-end RB3, but this is an important game to monitor to see if it’ll be the same old Zach Wilson we saw in 2021.

WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 4: @Pit.): There’s risk here for Wilson as the Jets adjust back to Zach Wilson under center for week 4. They may not throw the ball as much as they have in previous weeks (averaging an absurd 52 attempts per game so far) and have an implied total of just 18.5 points this week. I’m betting on the talent to win out for Wilson in a matchup that the numbers say is better than you might’ve guessed. Pittsburgh hasn’t given up a ton of real points, but they’ve allowed the 8^th-most fantasy points per game to wideouts including 5 different double-digit scoring outputs through 3 games. Wilson has shown he can command targets, and this is a matchup where targets should lead to fantasy points. He’s an upside WR3 with a little lower floor than usual this week.

WR Treylon Burks, TEN (Wk. 4: @Ind.): In weeks 1 and 2, Burks played limited snaps but was heavily targeted whenever he was on the field. His route participate rate was under 60% but he was targeted on at least 35% of his routes in each game. In week 3, that sort of reversed as his route participation jumped to 97% but his target rate dropped to just 9%. He was in a route on almost every pass play but was targeted just twice. I expect those numbers to meet somewhere in the middle in week 4. Most of Burks’ spike in playing time in week 3 came at the expense Austin Hooper and the injured Kyle Philips. Philips is practicing this week in a limited capacity and should be able to return to the lineup, but Burks has likely supplanted him as the WR3. Treylon probably loses some snaps to his fellow rookie this week, but he should still be on the field a lot, and I expect the Titans to once again make it a point to get him heavily involved. I’d set his floor at 5-6 targets against a Colts’ defense that ranks 27^th in pass defense DVOA. Burks is a volatile WR3 this week.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

RB Dameon Pierce, HOU (Wk. 4: vs. LAC): This week’s matchup for Pierce is something of a catch-22 for the rookie back. The Chargers have been shredded on the ground to the tune of 5.3 yards per carry through the first 3 weeks. They’ve given up the 5^th-most RB points per game. This is typically the kind of matchup you want to attack with a running back like Pierce who does most of his damage on the ground. The problem is that the Chargers boast an explosive offense that put the Texans in a very negative game script and render Pierce’s rushing ability moot. LA’s offense struggled against a better-than-expected Jaguars defense a week ago with Justin Herbert not at 100% due to a rib injury, but I don’t expect them to have the same issues getting going against the Texans. If you believe the Texans can hang with the Chargers on Sunday, Pierce could be a fine RB2. If they play from multiple scores behind all day like I expect, we’re going to see more Rex Burkhead than we want and Pierce becomes a dicey flex option.

RB Kenneth Walker III, SEA (Wk. 4: @Det.): The Lions are typically a matchup to target with running backs, ranking 31^st in run defense DVOA and allowing the most RB points per game, but Walker’s role remains too small to trust in fantasy lineups. Walker handled just 13% of the team rushing attempts in week 3, and Travis Homer and DeeJay Dallas still play the overwhelming majority of passing down snaps. Walker is a long shot to provide fantasy value this week unless game script heavily favors the Seahawks. Seattle is a 5-point underdog.

RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL (Wk. 4: vs. Cle.): The Browns don’t represent a daunting matchup for Allgeier, ranking just 26^th in run defense DVOA, but Tyler is playing only about a third of offensive snaps and isn’t getting any receiving work. He has a chance to see his value increase later in the season if Cordarrelle Patterson gets hurt or wears down like he did last year, but for now you can’t count on more than 6-8 touches for Allgeier. That’s not enough work to trust him in your lineups.

RB Jaylen Warren, PIT (Wk. 4: vs. NYJ): You probably already know to sit Warren, but if you saw his touches on Thursday Night Football you might’ve been impressed enough to get some ideas about what he could do against a bad Jets’ defense. The Jets rank 26^th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 7^th-most RB points per game, and this is one of the few games where Pittsburgh could have garbage time with a lead this season. That adds up to Warren being a sneaky play this week, especially in DFS, but his offensive snaps have decreased each week this season. He played a season-low 12 snaps last week, which just isn’t enough work to trust him in fantasy lineups.

WR Jahan Dotson, WAS (Wk. 4: @Dal.): The Washington passing attack that looked so dynamic in the first two weeks came crashing down to earth in week 3 against the Eagles. Carson Wentz still ended up with over 200 passing yards, but 83% of his yardage came on the last 3 drives of the game with Washington in a big hole. The biggest issue for the passing game was protecting Wentz from Philly’s pass rush. Philly generated pressure on 40% of Wentz’s dropbacks and sacked the QB 9 times (insert Ferris Bueller ‘Nine times’ reference here). This week the Commanders could face similar issues against a Dallas defense that is fresh off generating 5 sacks of Daniel Jones and a 45% pressure rate on Monday night. Dotson and teammate Terry McLaurin do their best work downfield. Both have an average target depth more than 13 yards downfield, and those kinds of longer throws won’t have time to develop if the Commanders can’t protect Wentz again. Look for a lot of dump offs to Curtis Samuel and JD McKissic once again. That duo accounted for 52% of the Commanders’ receptions last week. Wentz did try to get the ball to Dotson last Sunday, targeting him 8 times, but they were rarely able to connect as Dotson finished with 2 catches for 10 yards. I’d be hesitant to trust Dotson as anything more than a WR4 this week.

WR Romeo Doubs, GB (Wk. 4: vs. NE): It hasn’t taken long for Doubs to assert himself as the potential WR1 in the Packers’ offense. There were other receivers sidelined last week (Christian Watson & Sammy Watkins), opening opportunity for Doubs to be a nearly every down player, and he made the most of the opportunity. Doubs was in a route for 95% of Aaron Rodgers dropbacks, and he turned 8 targets into an 8-73-1 line. Watson and Watkins are both likely to return this week, so Doubs should see his playing time come back down to earth a bit, but he has consistently made an impact whenever he’s gotten the chance to do so. The Packers would be wise to keep giving him chances. The matchup this week isn’t a great one. The Patriots have allowed the 5^th-fewest WR points per game, and the 8^th-most running back receiving yards. They are more vulnerable to Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon through the air than the WR group. Doubs still has upside here, but I wouldn’t count on much more than 40-50 yards for the rookie.

WR George Pickens, PIT (Wk. 4: vs. NYJ): Pickens made arguably the catch of the season last Thursday night against the Browns, but his overall fortunes remain the same as they did going into that game. He’s running a lot of routes that help create space underneath for his teammates, but Mitch Trubisky is struggling to get Pickens the ball, even when coverage dictates that he should. Trubisky did at least attempt more passes in George’s direction in week 3, but outside of the dazzling circus catch he made Pickens totaled 2 catches for 3 yards on 6 targets. The Jets are a favorable matchup here, allowing the 11^th-most WR points per game, but I just don’t trust Trubisky to connect with Pickens enough to amount to a worthwhile fantasy day. Perhaps you can cross your fingers and hope that Trubisky gets benched for Kenny Pickett mid-game. Fantasy football aside, the matchup between Pickens and opposing rookie cornerback Sauce Gardner should be a fun one to watch.

TE Daniel Bellinger, NYG (Wk. 4: vs. Chi.): You may not think of Bellinger as a borderline option, but he is the unquestioned starting tight end for the Giants and he finally started seeing targets come his way on Monday night, turning in a 4-40 line on 5 targets against the Cowboys. New York is running short on wide receivers after the season-ending injury to Sterling Shepard, so there may be upside for a healthy target share for Bellinger, but the Bears have only given up 5 points or more (half-PPR) to one tight end in the first 3 weeks. I’d steer clear of Bellinger unless you’re desperate.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

QB Bailey Zappe, NE (Wk. 4: @GB): Mac Jones suffered a high ankle sprain that will put him on the shelf for a few weeks late in New England’s loss to the Ravens on Sunday, but Joe Judge essentially confirmed this week that it’ll be Axel Brian Hoyer who will take over in his absence (Yes, his real first name is Axel!). Zappe only needs an injury or some poor performance from Hoyer to see playing time, but he’s no more than a stash in deep 2-QB leagues for now.

RB Rachaad White, TB (Wk. 4: vs. KC): White’s playing time and touches have decreased each week of the season so far. This is Lenny’s backfield for the foreseeable future. It’s possible White plays more in week 4 than he has in the last couple weeks, but I don’t want to count on that in fantasy lineups.

RB Isiah Pacheco, KC (Wk. 4: @TB): The Chiefs have played two competitive games in the first 3 weeks of the season, and Pacheco has totaled 10 offensive snaps and 5 touches in those two games. Kansas City should be in another tight game this week. They’re favored by less than a field goal, and the Bucs have allowed the fewest running back points per game in the league so far.

RB James Cook, BUF (Wk. 4: @Bal.): Cook’s best opportunities to put up fantasy production are going to come in garbage time, and it’s hard to count on that this week in what should be one of the best games of the week. He’ll see some change-of-pace receiving work as well, but not enough to warrant fantasy consideration unless you’re desperate. Cook played just 11 snaps in week 3.

RB Jordan Mason, SF (Wk. 4: vs. LAR): Mason played just 5 snaps and carried just once on Sunday night despite having only Jeff Wilson Jr. ahead of him on the depth chart. Deebo Samuel is the RB2 right now in this offense. Mason may need an injury to Wilson to have any meaningful fantasy value in the coming weeks.

WR Kyle Philips, TEN (Wk. 4: @Ind.): Philips may return to action this week, and while it could throw a wrench into the Titans’ WR rotation against the Colts, it’ll be hard to trust him in Indy. The Colts have allowed the 3^rd-fewest PPR points to opposing wide receivers lined up in the slot and Philips spends nearly two-thirds of his snaps lined up there.

WR Christian Watson, GB (Wk. 4: vs. NE): Watson was a full participant in practice this week and should be good to return, but he didn’t seem to have much of a role in week 2 with Allen Lazard back on the field. Watson ran a route on just 27% of the passing dropbacks in that game before missing week 3 with a hamstring issue. Romeo Doubs’ emergence last week makes it even more of a long shot for Watson to establish himself against New England. Watson’s best hope is to break a big play, and New England has allowed just 3 completions of more than 25 yards this season.

WR David Bell, CLE (Wk. 4: @Atl.): Bell’s playing time ticked up in week 3, but the passing volume remains too volatile week-to-week to trust any WR beyond Amari Cooper. Bell has seen just two total targets come his way this season.

WR Skyy Moore, KC (Wk. 4: @TB): Chiefs’ offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy guaranteed last week that Skyy Moore would play more than two snaps in week 3, and while 8 offensive snaps are technically more than 2, it’s not the step forward any of us had in mind for him. The problem was that Moore’s week got derailed before it got started when he muffed the first punt of the game, and it got even worse when he was tentative on the next punt and allowed the Colts to pin the Chiefs against their own goal line. I do think we will see Skyy’s snaps start to tick up going forward, but I’m not comfortable considering him for lineups until we see that playing time increase happen.

WR Jalen Tolbert, DAL (Wk. 4: vs. Was.): The Commanders have allowed the 3^rd-most WR points so far this year, but Tolbert isn’t the Dallas WR who will benefit from the favorable matchup. Tolbert was active for the first time Monday night, and he totaled just 1 catch for 4 yards on 2 targets. Michael Gallup is likely to return to action this weekend.

TE Isaiah Likely, BAL (Wk. 4: vs. Buf.): The hope with Likely was that he was going to emerge as the Ravens’ third target in the passing game behind Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman, but through 3 weeks it’s been Devin Duvernay who has stepped up and earned that role. Likely is earning more targets than Duvernay, but Duvernay is on the field more and is getting targets in the red zone where it counts. Only Mark Andrews has more end zone targets on this team than Duvernay so far. Likely has zero. There is still some weekly upside here. Likely has been hovering around 45-50% route participation and is averaging just under 4 targets per game. There will be a week where he has a breakout performance eventually, but I wouldn’t count on it here against Buffalo. The Bills allow the 4^th-fewest TE points per game.

TE Jelani Woods, IND (Wk. 4: vs. Ten.): Woods made a big impact with his first targets of the season Sunday, finding the end zone twice against Kansas City, but it isn’t much different than OJ Howard scoring twice in week 1. The rookie hasn’t been on the field enough to be trusted yet in fantasy (he has 3 targets for the year), but he’s worth monitoring going forward. Woods’ route participation rate has gone from 7% to 17% to 27% in the first 3 weeks, and he may eventually supplant Kylen Granson as the team’s TE2.

TEs Jake Ferguson & Peyton Hendershot, DAL (Wk. 4: vs. Was.): It’s entirely possible that Dalton Schultz is out again in week 4, but neither Ferguson nor Hendershot dominated the TE work enough to be worth starting consideration this week if Schultz is unable to play. Ferguson played significantly more snaps, but both players garnered just 3 targets on Monday night and only Hendershot did anything with those targets, finishing with a 3-43 line. Both players are just desperation dart throws if Schultz is out again, and since they play at noon Sunday there are plenty of other fallback options if you want to wait on Schultz.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Skylar Thompson, MIA (Wk. 4: @Cin.): You’ll need to keep an eye on the reports on the QB situation here. We saw starting Dolphins’ QB Tua Tagovailoa wobble and fall attempting to walk off a hit on Sunday, but the team allowed him to return to the game in the 2^nd half claiming he didn’t suffer a concussion, but rather had agitated a previous back injury. In any case, he’s listed as questionable for Thursday on a short week. The likeliest outcome if Tua sits would be for veteran Teddy Bridgewater to start in his place, but Head Coach Mike McDaniel is the type that is willing to think outside the box and Thompson played like a star in the preseason. The rookie completed 75% of his passes for 450 yards, 5 TDs, and zero interceptions in the exhibition season and offers a higher ceiling than Teddy B. The Bengals seem like a tough matchup on paper, allowing the 3^rd-fewest QB points per game, but they haven’t faced stiff competition. The 3 QBs they’ve faced so far – Mitch Trubisky, Cooper Rush and Joe Flacco – are the NFL equivalent of facing Glass Joe, Von Kaiser, and the 1^st Piston Honda. If Skylar gets the starting nod, he has real upside as a QB2 if you’re desperate for help at the position this week.

QB Kenny Pickett, PIT (Wk. 4: vs. NYJ): I mentioned Pickett in this section last week, and Mitch Trubisky didn’t do anything last week to dispel the idea that he should probably be benched for Pickett. If Mitch can’t right the ship against the lowly New York Jets’ defense, I don’t see how the Steelers go into a stretch with games against the Bills, Bucs, Dolphins, and Eagles with Trubisky still under center. In superflex leagues you should probably get ahead of the crowd and stash Pickett before he actually becomes the starter. It’s possible that a mid-game benching occurs this week if Trubisky struggles with the Jets.

RB Trestan Ebner, CHI (Wk. 4: @NYG): The Bears have played coy about the status of David Montgomery’s ankle injury, calling him day-to-day but refusing to definitively say they won’t put him on IR. I wouldn’t assume that he’s going to be out for multiple weeks, but for week 4 he’s probably on the wrong side of questionable. Khalil Herbert has been fantastic in his opportunities, but the Bears run too much for Herbert to handle all the work. I’d like Ebner a lot more if I trusted the Bears to throw enough that we could count on a few targets, but the Giants’ defense has been cooked by smaller, shiftier backs like Dontrell Hilliard (69 scrimmage yards and 2 TDs) and Tony Pollard (105 rushing yards), and they rank dead last in run defense DVOA. Ebner isn’t a great option in season-long leagues, but he has some big-play upside for DFS lineups. He costs just $2,000 in Showdown contests on DraftKings.

RB Brian Robinson Jr., WAS (Wk. 4: @Dal.): Robinson isn’t eligible to return from IR until week 5, but practice reports make it sound like he will be activated sooner rather than later. Robinson was slated to be the starting running back before getting about 2 weeks before the season opener, and I would expect him to be a major part of the backfield mix upon his return. The first 3 defenses the Commanders face after Robinson is eligible to return all rank 20^th or worse in run defense DVOA, and two of them are in the bottom-12 at limiting RB fantasy points. Robinson is worth a stash if an impatient manager dropped him while he was on IR.

WR Alec Pierce, IND (Wk. 4: vs. Ten.): Pierce returned in week 3 after missing the prior week with a concussion, and he was immediately a factor. He was in a route for less than 50% of Matt Ryan’s dropbacks, but he managed to turn 5 targets into a 3-61 line against the Chiefs. Michael Pittman is the WR1 here by a wide distance, but Pierce has a real chance to carve out a role as the WR2. His main competition, Parris Campbell, has been a non-factor through 3 weeks. I’d expect Pierce to see more playing time in week 3 against the Titans. Jonathan Taylor is battling a toe injury that has kept him out of practice this week, and the Titans allow the 4^th-most WR points per game. This is a spot where Pierce could have an unexpected splash game of 15+ PPR points.

WR Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG (Wk. 4: vs. Chi.): Wan’Dale has missed the last two weeks with injury and isn’t practicing as of Wednesday this week, but he should step into a high-volume role as soon as he’s able to get back onto the field. Kadarius Toney alternates between the coach’s doghouse and the injury report, Kenny Golladay may just be done for, and Sterling Shepard suffered a non-contact injury late Monday night that ended his season. Richie James and David Sills have held their own, but there is no one on this depth chart that is going to prevent Robinson from playing when healthy. The rookie opened the season as the starting slot receiver, and he should resume that role when he’s able to play. I’d be hesitant to fire him up this week against a Bears’ defense that has allowed the 10^th-fewest PPR points to slot receivers per Sports Info Solutions, but he shouldn’t be on the waiver wire in deeper leagues.

TE Greg Dulcich, DEN (Wk. 4: @LV): Like Robinson above, Dulcich was tracking to be a starter to open the season before finding himself on IR and is eligible to be activated in week 5. Albert Okwuegbunam hasn’t done anything to definitively take over the starting job, so I expect Dulcich to be worked in pretty quickly upon his return. The team said he’d be ready to go as soon as he was eligible when they put him on IR, and if that’s still the case he shouldn’t be sitting on waivers in deeper leagues, especially if they’re TE premium. The first opponent Dulcich could face is Indianapolis. The Colts have allowed the 3^rd-most TE points per game.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you pull out a victory this week. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.