Shawn Foss
I'm a college and professional sports nut from the Chicago area. Follow me on Twitter @Shawn_Foss
September
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week one always seems to be a wild one in the NFL, and 2022 was no exception. Three of the four conference championship game participants from last season fell in the opener, and some heavy favorites were defeated (or tied). It was an interesting week for the rookie crop in their debuts. Most of the 1st round receivers showed well – Jahan Dotson scored a pair of TDs, Drake London broke 70 yards, Garrett Wilson and Treylon Burks broke 50, and Chris Olave topped 40 yards and scored a 2-point conversion. Later pick Kyle Philips also showed well in the opener leading the Titans in targets, catches, and receiving yards. The second-round rookies – Christian Watson, Wan’dale Robinson, Skyy Moore, George Pickens, and Alec Pierce – didn’t perform nearly as well. They’ll have chances to get things turned around, I’m sure.
For the running backs, Dameon Pierce disappointed while Breece Hall earned a whopping 10 targets and Isiah Pacheco topped a dozen PPR points in week 1. Many other ballyhooed choices like James Cook, Isaiah Spiller, Zamir White, and Tyler Allgeier had forgettable or non-existent performances. All of those players would be wise to take a page from Bill Belichick and just say ‘we’re on to week 2.’
A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Any data on route participation, air yards, and other usage rates are per Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report on Pro Football Focus. Let’s dive into week 2…
Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:
NONE – Drake London was close to getting inclusion here, but we’re not quite there yet with any of the rookies to call them an auto-start in fantasy.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:
RB Breece Hall, NYJ (Wk. 2: @Cle.): Michael Carter worked as the lead back in the opener, but Hall handled all the hurry-up offense snaps and benefitted greatly from the dump-off passes that came with it. The Jets are nearly a TD underdog this week to Cleveland, so they could be in scramble mode late in the game again. It’s worth noting that Carter played a large share of the long down & distance snaps in week 1, so there is risk in trusting Hall here, but I like his role to grow a bit this week and think he's a reasonable flex option in most formats. Hall handled 100% of the short down & distance snaps in week 1, so the ball is likely going to him in any goal-line opportunities.
WR Drake London, ATL (Wk. 2: @LAR): London was questionable last week with a knee injury that lingered throughout the preseason, but he wasn’t held back at all in the opener, logging an 82% route participation rate and 31% of the team’s air yards. He faced a daunting defensive matchup with Marshon Lattimore, and still managed to post 5-74 on 7 targets. London looks like the real deal 1 week into his career. Jalen Ramsey may look like another daunting matchup in week 2, but the Rams allowed the 10th-most PPR points last season to wide receivers lined up on the perimeter, per Sports Info Solutions (SIS), and allowed the most WR PPR points in the NFL in week 1. The Falcons are 10-point underdogs in this game, so negative game script should force them to throw more than they did in the opener. London should be a solid WR3 in this matchup.
WR Jahan Dotson, WAS (Wk. 2: @Det.): Dotson made a splash in his debut, finding the end zone twice against the Jaguars Sunday. His target share could’ve been better, but he was in a route on 90% of the team dropbacks and led the team with a 29% air yard share. Curtis Samuel is going to be a thing in this offense, so there are a lot of weapons to split the targets between. There is hope that the Commanders will be a pass-heavy offense, and there will be enough volume to go around, but I don’t want to get ahead of myself after a 1-game sample size. The Lions are a great matchup for wide receivers. They allowed the 3rd-highest passer rating in the NFL last season and gave up the 8th-most PPR points to perimeter WRs in week 1 per SIS. Curtis Samuel spends most of his time in the slot, which makes Dotson and Terry McLaurin the stronger plays here. Dotson is a solid WR3 in a matchup that has shoot-out potential.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:
RB Dameon Pierce, HOU (Wk. 2: @Den.): Pierce’s week 1 couldn’t have gone much worse than it did given the expectations going in. Pierce was announced as the starting running back ahead of the opener. The expectation was that he would handle the early-down work and that Rex Burkhead would operate as the receiving back. Instead, Pierce played just 29% of the offensive snaps and handled just 41% of the team’s rushing attempts in a game where the Texans led for much of the game. Head coach Lovie Smith said he wants to get Pierce a bigger workload going forward, but it’s hard to see that happening this week when the Texans are a 10-point underdog to the Broncos. Denver isn’t an especially daunting run defense. They ranked 20th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA in 2021 and allowed 5 yards per carry to Rashaad Penny in week 1, but I expect Rex Burkhead to handle the bulk of the work again in a game where the Broncos’ offense gets on track and the Texans play from behind. Pierce likely sees a similar 10-12 touches in this one.
RB Isiah Pacheco, KC (Wk. 2: vs. LAC): Pacheco posted a strong NFL debut with 62 rushing yards and a TD, but 9 of those carries and the score came in the 4th quarter with the Chiefs leading by more than 20 points. Pacheco is the RB3 in this offense. CEH is the lead back on early downs, and Jerick McKinnon is the passing-down back. Pacheco gets the scraps and the garbage time. Week 2 doesn’t seem like a great one to bet on garbage time with the Chiefs favored by just 3 points against a very strong Chargers team. Pacheco won’t see enough work to be serviceable for fantasy purposes.
RB Rachaad White, TB (Wk. 2: vs. @NO): White handled 8 touches in week one working behind Leonard Fournette, but 5 of those touches came in the 4th quarter with Tampa up by multiple scores. Fournette handled almost all the backfield work while the game was still competitive. The game this week should be competitive throughout against a Saints team that usually gives Tom Brady trouble. Tampa Bay is 0-4 against the Saints in the regular season with Brady at the helm. I expect White’s role to grow as the season goes on, but for now he’ll need a Fournette injury to be startable in fantasy.
WRs Treylon Burks & Kyle Philips, TEN (Wk. 2: @Buf.): Philips led the Titans pass catchers in pretty much all categories in week 1 except touchdowns, but it’s worth noting that all but 1 of his snaps came in 11 personnel, a formation the Titans were in less than 60% of the time in 2021. He also draws veteran slot corner Taron Johnson this week, the toughest individual matchup in this secondary. I like Burks’ chances at a solid game better than Philips in this one, but he was in a route for just 36% of Tannehill’s dropbacks in week 1, so you’re counting on him putting up production in limited snaps if you trot him out there. The Bills did allow the 5th-most PPR points to perimeter WRs in week one per SIS, but overall, this is a formidable defense. I wouldn’t want to trust a player to have a big game against them on limited snaps.
WR George Pickens, PIT (Wk. 2: vs. NE): Pickens started in week one and was in a route on 91% of Mitch Trubisky’s dropbacks in the opener, but he spent most of the day running wind sprints. The Steelers targeted Pickens just 3 times in 38 pass attempts as Diontae Johnson and Pat Freiermuth dominated targets. There is some reason for optimism for Pickens in week two. Pro Football Focus projects his most frequent week 2 opponent to be New England CB Jonathan Jones, who stands just 5’10” (Pickens is 6’3”). New England is also notorious for schematically taking away the opponent’s best weapons. Their focus should be in slowing down Diontae, which could create more opportunities for Pickens. I expect Pickens to see more than 3 targets in this one, and possibly a couple of looks in the red zone, but he’s a boom-or-bust WR4 until we see more consistency.
WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 2: @Cle.): Wilson earned a healthy 8 targets in the opener, but he split work with Corey Davis and Braxton Berrios behind WR1 Elijah Moore. Wilson was in a route on just 56% of Joe Flacco’s dropbacks, and the 8 targets look less impressive when you realize the Jets threw the ball 59 times in the opener. I wouldn’t count on a repeat of that kind of overall passing volume in a game that should be more competitive with Cleveland. Wilson did have a solid 24% air yardage share in his limited snaps and was targeted on half of the throws that went into the end zone, so the arrow is pointing up as Wilson gets more playing time. I just wouldn’t be eager to plug him into lineups when I’m expecting lower overall pass volume against a defense that ranked 7th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA in 2021 (and 8th in that stat in week 1). I’d wait a little longer to start getting Wilson into lineups.
WR Chris Olave, NO (Wk. 2: vs. TB): Olave played a full-time role in the opener, logging an 83% route participation rate, and he looked good for the most part. Unfortunately, the bulk of the targets went to Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry, and there’s reason to think that could happen again. PFF projects Olave to square off mostly with Bucs #1 CB Carlton Davis in this game, and Tampa does a solid job at limiting fantasy points to perimeter WRs. Per SIS, the Bucs allowed the 14th-fewest PPR points to perimeter wide receivers in 2021 and allowed the 9th-fewest to them in week 1. Jarvis Landry lines up predominantly in the slot, so it could be Landry who has the biggest day of the New Orleans pass catchers in a tough matchup. You could take a shot on Olave in lineups since he has a full-time role, but I’d prefer both Landry and Thomas this week ahead of him.
WRs Christian Watson & Romeo Doubs, GB (Wk. 2: vs. Chi.): It was a forgettable game for the Packers wide receivers in week 1 with Christian Watson dropping a wide-open deep ball and all of the WRs failing to establish themselves in Allen Lazard’s absence. Expectations were high for Romeo Doubs after he starred in the preseason, but in week one it was running back AJ Dillon who led the team in targets and receiving yards. Lazard is practicing ahead of this week’s matchup, which will make a breakout for either rookie WR even tougher. Watson led the wide receivers in routes run and Doubs finished fourth in week 1, but all the top 4 receivers rotated pretty evenly. Watson was drafted in the 2nd round and seemed to be ahead of Doubs in week 1 despite missing a lot of training camp with an injury. If I had to bet on one of the duo being the WR2 going forward behind Lazard, my bet would be on Watson, but I’m not sure I’d want to start any of them in fantasy other than Lazard. Aaron Rodgers key takeaway after week 1 is that the Packers need to get their running backs more involved. The running backs had a 31.4% target share in the opener.
WR Alec Pierce, IND (Wk. 2: @Jax.): Pierce was in a route on two-thirds of Matt Ryan’s 54 dropbacks in week 1, but that resulted in just 2 catch-less targets. Michael Pittman Jr, Kylen Granson, and the running backs dominated targets, with Pierce duking it out with Parris Campbell and Ashton Dulin for the scraps. He’ll earn more opportunities as the season goes on, but you can’t trust him in season-long lineups even in a plus matchup against the Jaguars. Pierce popped up on the injury report Wednesday with news he’s in the concussion protocol, making him an even worse week 2 option.
Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:
QB Bailey Zappe, NE (Wk. 2: @Pit.): Mac Jones suffered a back injury on Sunday against Miami, opening the door for a slim chance that Zappe is the first rookie QB to make a start this season. It’s more likely that the Patriots would turn to Brian Hoyer than Zappe if Jones sits, but if Zappe does get the nod, I wouldn’t consider him as an option even in 2-QB leagues. The Steelers forced 4 turnovers from Joe Burrow last weekend, and the Pats’ offense was a mess with Jones healthy in week 1. This one could be ugly if Zappe gets the chance to start, but I think the Patriots’ game plan would be to hide him as much as possible with a run-heavy attack.
RB James Cook, BUF (Wk. 2: vs. Ten.): Cook was unsurprisingly part of a 3-way backfield with Devin Singletary and Zack Moss in week 1. What was surprising was that he was a distant 3rd in the pecking order. Cook’s first touch didn’t come until the 2nd quarter after both of his teammates had handled multiple touches, and the rookie promptly put the ball on the turf. He played just 2 additional snaps after the fumble and didn’t touch the ball again. I don’t expect it to be a multi-week doghouse situation for Cook, but he’s going to have to earn back that trust. You can’t start him in week 2.
RB Isaiah Spiller, LAC (Wk. 2: @KC): Spiller was a healthy scratch behind Joshua Kelley and Sony Michel last week, and there’s no reason to think he won’t be in the same situation in week 2. He doesn’t need to be rostered in redraft leagues.
RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL (Wk. 2: @LAR): Like Isaiah Spiller, Allgeier was also inactive in week 1. The Falcons rolled with Cordarrelle Patterson and Damien Williams handling most of the backfield work, and that should continue here. I’m fine with holding onto Allgeier in deeper leagues in hopes he moves up the depth chart a la Rhamondre Stevenson in New England last season, but he doesn’t offer much immediate value.
WR Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG (Wk. 2: vs. Car.): Robinson was in line for a big role in week 1, but that was derailed early on as he was sidelined by a knee injury in the first half Sunday. The Giants’ WR depth chart is a fluid situation from week to week. Kadarius Toney may be the most explosive player in the group, but he was seemingly in the doghouse in week 1 with just 7 snaps played. Sterling Shepard scored a long TD but was otherwise barely targeted in his return from an Achilles tear. Richie James led the gang with 6 targets. Robinson isn’t practicing as of Wednesday, so he seems less than likely to play, but it’ll be tough to trust him in lineups even if he’s active with limited practice time coming off the injury.
WR Skyy Moore, KC (Wk. 2: vs. LAC): Patrick Mahomes put on an absolute clinic in week 1, shredding the Cardinals to the tune of 360 yards and 5 touchdowns. Unfortunately, not much of that went to Skyy Moore. The rookie was in a route for just 16% of Mahomes’ dropbacks, and he caught his only target for 30 yards. He should be stashed in most formats, but it may take him some time to climb the depth chart to get ahead of either Marquez Valdes-Scantling or Mecole Hardman for playing time. You can’t count on Moore in lineups yet.
WR David Bell, CLE (Wk. 2: vs. NYJ): Bell, like much of the Browns’ passing attack, wasn’t very useful for fantasy purposes in week 1 with Jacoby Brissett under center. He also wasn’t on the field very much. Bell worked as the team’s 4th WR, running a route on just 19% of the team’s dropbacks. The Browns’ offense is going to run through Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt so long as Brissett is at QB. There will be limited passing targets to go around, and Bell is low in the pecking order for now. He shouldn’t be rostered in most redraft formats.
WR Velus Jones Jr., CHI (Wk. 2: @GB): Jones missed week 1 with a hamstring injury, but he has a chance to suit up for week 2 after getting in a limited practice on Wednesday. We still don’t know how high on the depth chart Jones will be when healthy, and it’s likely he’ll be eased back in off the hamstring injury even if he was ticketed for a meaningful role. Leave him parked on the bench in deeper leagues where you’ve got him rostered until we see what his usage is going to look like.
TE Isaiah Likely, BAL (Wk. 2: vs. Mia.): Likely put up a goose egg on the scoreboard for fantasy last week, but the Ravens weren’t lying about him being on the field a decent amount. Likely was in a route on 51% of the team’s dropbacks and drew 4 targets in the opener against the Jets. He just didn’t catch any of them. It was a promising sign that he’ll be involved in the offense, but a 51% route participation rate isn’t high enough to trust him in fantasy lineups, especially as the offense will probably run more when JK Dobbins returns to the lineup. Likely is worth monitoring, and he’ll be an interesting weekly dart throw for DFS purposes and deep leagues, but it will probably take a Mark Andrews injury to unlock any true upside for most redraft formats.
TE Daniel Bellinger, NYG (Wk. 2: vs. Car.): Bellinger worked as the starting tight end for the Giants in week 1, but it wouldn’t be surprising if you didn’t notice that. He was on the field for 48% of the offensive snaps but was only in a route on 29% of the team dropbacks and wasn’t targeted once. The tight end position just isn’t involved enough in the offense here to use Bellinger in lineups.
TE Trey McBride, ARI (Wk. 2: @LV): McBride was a healthy scratch in week 1 with Zach Ertz recovered from his preseason injury. The Cardinals are siding with the experience of Maxx Williams over the playmaking ability of McBride for the TE2 role in the early part of the season. The Raiders are a good TE matchup if you knew McBride would have a role (allowed the 4th-most TE points in 2021, and the 5th-most in week 1), but we can’t count on him having that role.
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
RB Jaylen Warren, PIT (Wk. 2: vs. NE): Warren was one of the surprises of the preseason, winning the RB2 job in Pittsburgh behind Najee Harris as an undrafted free agent. Normally that role wouldn’t result in a lot of work. Harris handled 86.4% of the backfield touches in Pittsburgh last season, but he also suffered a Lisfranc foot injury in the preseason, one that resurfaced in week 1. It sounds like Najee should be good to go in week 2, but it also sounds like an injury that will linger throughout the season. Warren could play a bigger role as the team tries to manage the foot injury and should function as the workhorse back if it were to sideline Harris in any games. Warren would be a low-end RB2 if Najee somehow ended up missing Sunday’s game with the Patriots, and he shouldn’t be on your league’s waiver wire.
RBs Tyrion Davis-Price & Jordan Mason, SF (Wk. 2: vs. Sea.): Elijah Mitchell suffered a serious knee injury in week 1 and is expected to be out for half the season, opening a huge hole in the San Francisco backfield. Jeff Wilson Jr. will likely step into the lead back role, but that’s not a certainty and Wilson hasn’t exactly been a beacon of health over the past few seasons. Enough of this rushing workload will be handled by Trey Lance and Deebo Samuel that they’re not likely to have more than one relevant fantasy RB at a time, but both TDP and Mason are worth a stash on the off chance that they’re the one guy or that Wilson gets hurt. Davis-Price was inactive in week 1, so it’s been assumed he’s behind Mason on the depth chart, but I wouldn’t be so sure. Mason played just 5 snaps in week 1, all on special teams, so it’s possible special teams are the reason he was active ahead of Davis-Price. TDP has the higher draft capital of the pair (3rd round pick vs UDFA), but both are worth a stash. The 49ers are 9.5-point favorites in week 2, so there’s a real chance whichever back gets the RB2 role sees an extended opportunity in garbage time if the game gets out of hand.
RB Pierre Strong Jr., NE (Wk. 2: @Pit.): Strong was inactive in week 1, but the Patriots placed Ty Montgomery on injured reserve after the game. Montgomery served as the primary receiving back in the opener, handling 91% of the long down & distance snaps and garnering 4 targets, and it remains an open question who will get the passing down work in this backfield while he’s out. The Patriots’ offense has ranked in the top-10 in RB target share every single season since 2016 and the backfield had a 30% target share in week 1. Being the pass-catching back in this offense has typically been a valuable role. Neither Damien Harris nor Rhamondre Stevenson has a skill set that stands out as a natural fit to take on those duties, which means Strong has a chance to take over. It’s far from a certainty, but in deep leagues, it may be worth stashing Strong now for free in hopes that he takes that job rather than trying to outbid others on waivers next week after we learn he did take it.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you continue your strong start to the season or get it back on track if week 1 didn’t go according to plan. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.
September
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! It’s been a long, dreadful 7-month wait for NFL games that matter to return, but we’ve made it! We’re mere hours away from week 1, which means it’s time once again to set your fantasy lineups, and that means I’m back to help you figure out what to do with your rookies.
If you’re new to the Rookie Report, here’s how it works: Each week I’ll look at the upcoming matchup for all the fantasy-relevant rookies and give you my take on what to do with them for that week. I’ll give you some quick-hitting info about guys you already know you should start or sit, and I’ll dig a little deeper on the borderline rookies to give you some info to help you make that decision for the week. I’ll also include some deep league sleepers, stashes for the future, and cheap DFS plays that I like among rookies for those of you who are in deeper leagues or like to play DFS.
This year’s rookie class is an interesting one. There was only 1 QB taken before round 3 of the NFL draft and zero rookie QBs slated to start in week 1, but there were an absurd 13 wide receivers taken in the first two rounds and a number of other intriguing guys drafted in rounds 3 & 4. I have a feeling a lot of this year’s Rookie Report will be devoted to the wide receiver class.
A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 1…
Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:
NONE – There are no rookies that should be an auto-start in week 1 for your lineups. The 2 guys who should be the safest based on draft capital and expected role are Drake London and Breece Hall. Both face tough week 1 matchups and have question marks that make them less than a sure thing for the openers.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:
RB Dameon Pierce, HOU (Wk. 1: vs. Ind.): Pierce has been one of the most polarizing players this preseason after winning the Texans’ RB1 job out of camp as a 4th-round draft pick. The debate has been about whether he’s actually a good starting RB, or if he was just the best of a lackluster group of options in Houston. Regardless of the answer to that question, we know he’s going to get rushing volume. The Texans changed coaches this offseason, but they’re likely to remain conservative as an offense. Houston passed the ball at just the 19th highest rate last year despite finishing 4-13 and constantly playing from behind. That means they’re willing to run when they probably shouldn’t. I don’t expect Pierce to stay in the game on passing downs. That job should fall to Rex Burkhead, but that doesn’t mean Pierce can’t pull in a few receptions to go along with probably 15+ carries in week 1. The Colts’ run defense was stingy in 2021, ranking 3rd in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA, but the switch from DC Matt Eberflus to Gus Bradley could mean some regression is coming. Bradley runs a base cover-3 defense and doesn’t do a ton of blitzing. In fact, according to Pro Football Reference Bradley’s defenses have blitzed at the lowest rate in the NFL in each of the last 3 years (and 3rd-lowest rate in 2018). It’s caused his defenses to traditionally be pretty good against the pass, but bad against the run. Bradley’s defenses have ranked in the bottom half of the league in rushing yards allowed and rushing TDs allowed in each of the last 3 seasons, and his Raiders’ defense last year allowed the 4th-most running back points per game. If you’re considering Pierce for a start in week 1, I’d feel good about slotting him in the lineup.
WR Chris Olave, NO (Wk. 1: @Atl.): Olave enters week 1 looking like a clear starter for the Saints opposite Michael Thomas with Jarvis Landry in the slot. Thomas has been battling a hamstring injury, and while he looks likely to play it’s easy to wonder if it hampers his performance in the opener. The Falcons allowed the 2nd-most fantasy points in the league last year to wide receivers lined up on the perimeter, per Sports Info Solutions (SIS). They did add Casey Heyward Jr. at corner to help shore up that issue, but I still like Olave to get loose for a handful of catches in a strong debut performance. Part of the problem for the Falcons is that they generated QB pressure at the lowest rate in the league last year, and they did little to address the issue in the offseason. You can’t ask your corners to cover forever. Something in the range of 5-75 with a possible TD would be a nice finish for Olave in the opener.
WR Treylon Burks, TEN (Wk. 1: vs. NYG): Depending on who you ask, Burks’ training camp and preseason ranged anywhere from okay to pretty bad, to a complete dumpster fire. It started with reports that his conditioning was an issue early in camp. Then came the preseason games where Burks played into the 4th quarter in each of the first two contests and didn’t produce much with his opportunities. It became clear that he wasn’t working with the starters yet, which is unexpected for a guy who was drafted in the top 20 picks by a team that just traded away their WR1. At the end of the day, I bought into the camp reports a bit and was expecting a slow start to the season for Burks. Then I saw his week 1 matchup. The Giants are shaky at corner after releasing James Bradberry as a cap casualty in the offseason, and new DC Wink Martindale loves to play aggressive defense with a lot of blitzing and asking his CBs to play man coverage. I expect the Titans to combat this by trying to get the ball into the hands of their playmakers in space quickly, and they don’t have a more dynamic playmaker than Burks. Much like Derrick Henry (although not to the same degree), Burks is a player you don’t want to tackle when he’s running full speed in the open field. I like his chances of breaking a big play or two against this vulnerable defense. Burks is listed as the team’s WR2 on their first depth chart released for the regular season.
WR George Pickens, PIT (Wk. 1: @Cin.): Pickens will be a starter in 3-wide sets for the Steelers in week 1, and with Diontae Johnson battling a shoulder injury he could make a splash in his debut against the defending AFC champs. Mike Tomlin hasn’t expressed any concern about Diontae being able to play in the opener, but Johnson may be out there as more of a decoy than a featured target. Johnson should draw shadow coverage from Chidobe Awuzie, who graded as PFF’s 18th-best cover corner in 2021. Chase Claypool should draw Mike Hilton in the slot (PFF’s 5th best slot cover corner in ’21). That leaves oft picked on Eli Apple as Pickens’ week one adversary. I like George’s chances to lead the Steelers in receiving yards in week 1, and he looks like a guy who will be much more productive as a pro than he was in college. 60+ yards and a possible TD feels like a likely outcome for Pickens in the opener.
WR Jahan Dotson, WAS (Wk. 1: vs. Jax.): Dotson won the starting WR job opposite Terry McLaurin in camp, and he gets a soft landing for his NFL debut. The Jaguars allowed the 7th-most WR points per game last season and ranked 31st in pass defense DVOA, and their best corner Shaquill Griffin is likely to follow Terry McLaurin around. That leaves youngster Tyson Campbell to match up with Dotson. With Washington likely missing starting TE Logan Thomas, Dotson should see a healthy number of targets come his way in a game where Carson Wentz should be motivated to exorcise some demons. It was his performance in an embarrassing loss in the week 18 meeting with the Jaguars that changed the trajectory of Wentz’s career. That loss was the final nail in his coffin in Indy, the second stop that he’s been booted from in as many years. This year may be his last chance to prove he can be someone’s franchise QB and putting it on the Jaguars would be a good way to start. If Wentz makes good on that, Dotson will be a primary beneficiary.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:
RB Breece Hall, NYJ (Wk. 1: vs. Bal.): Hall seemed like a slam dunk to open the season as the Jets' workhorse running back when he was drafted in April, but he somehow failed to beat out Michael Carter for the starting job in training camp. It appears Hall will open the season in a committee akin to the one we saw between Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon last season in Denver. It’s not a great development if you drafted Hall to be a starting running back, especially in a week where he faces a Ravens’ defense that ranked 4th in run defense DVOA stat last season. This is the kind of matchup where I’d be calling him a floor RB2 if he were the workhorse. Instead, he’s a fringe flex play that doesn’t appear to have a ton of ceiling.
RB Rachaad White, TB (Wk. 1: @Dal.): White is only a borderline option in the deepest of PPR leagues. The Bucs leaned heavily on Leonard Fournette in 2021, and while they’re likely to do that again in ’22, they probably want to lighten the load at least a little after he missed crucial time down the stretch with injury last season. They used a 3rd round pick on White and he’s already worked his way up to #2 on the depth chart behind Lenny. I expect the workload split here to look something like we’ve seen with Dallas where Fournette is in the Zeke Elliott role and White is Tony Pollard. He’ll mix in for some change of pace work and some receiving opportunities, but Lenny is the workhorse. White is a great stash in case his role is bigger than expected or anything happens to Fournette, but he isn’t a great play in week 1 against a Dallas defense that allowed the 3rd-fewest RB points per game last season.
WR Drake London, ATL (Wk. vs. NO): London returns from a knee injury in time for week 1, but he’s had very limited practice time this preseason. I’d be surprised if he plays a full complement of snaps in the opener, and many of the snaps he does play should be matched up with Saints’ top corner Marshon Lattimore. Lattimore had a 76.4 PFF coverage grade and allowed fewer than 8 yards per target into his coverage in 2021. I wouldn’t count on more than 5-6 targets for the rookie in the opener, which may not get London to 50+ yards against Lattimore.
WR Alec Pierce, IND (Wk. 1: @Hou.): Pierce draws a favorable matchup in his first time out against a Houston defense that allowed the 5th-most fantasy points last year to wide receivers lined up out wide (Parris Campbell figures to play mostly in the slot), but this shapes up as a game where the Colts will have no problem relying on Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman to do most of the heavy lifting. Pittman is the clear WR1 in this offense, and the Texans won’t have an answer for him when the Colts need to throw, and they shouldn’t need to throw a ton. Pierce could see a few targets come his way, but this should be a low passing volume week for the Colts, and the scraps that go to Pierce are unlikely to amount to a strong fantasy game.
WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 1: vs. Bal): The Jets have listed Wilson as a backup on the depth chart behind Braxton Berrios ahead of the opener, but I have a hunch Wilson will be on the field a fair amount in week 1. They didn’t draft him in the first round to not have a role, and the Jets are going to be playing from behind as a touchdown underdog at home. The Ravens are a much tougher pass defense than last year’s #30 rank in pass defense DVOA would indicate. Their secondary was decimated by injuries last year and appears back to full health to start 2022. The return of Marcus Peters and the addition of Kyle Fuller make this a defense I don’t want to use Wilson against unless I KNOW he’s playing a full complement of snaps. We don’t know that for week 1.
WR Jalen Tolbert, DAL (Wk. 1: vs. TB): Michael Gallup’s status remains in doubt for week 1, and Tampa Bay’s stout defensive front had teams throwing early and often against them last season since they couldn’t run the ball with any success. Dak Prescott attempted a whopping 58 passes against the Bucs in week 1 last year as Zeke Elliott struggled to just 33 rushing yards. There’s a pretty good possibility Dallas employs a similar strategy this time around, and that kind of passing volume makes Tolbert intriguing. The problem is that he’s failed to separate himself from guys like Noah Brown, Semi Fehoko, and KaVontae Turpin in camp. It’s likely all 4 guys play some snaps in the opener if Gallup is out, and we could even see Tony Pollard get some slot snaps as well after he did some work there in camp. The passing game will run through CeeDee Lamb, Dalton Schultz, and the running backs in the opener, and you’re likely grasping at straws if you start any of their other receivers in week 1.
TE Daniel Bellinger, NYG (Wk. 1: @Ten.): For deeper TE-premium leagues, Bellinger may be on your radar for week 1 after winning the starting tight end job in New York. I’d steer clear for the opener. The Titans allowed the 6th-fewest TE points per game last season, and we all know about the likelihood of early success for rookie tight ends. You can likely find a better option for week 1.
Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:
All of the rookie QBs: None of the rookie signal callers are slated to start in week 1, and if the draft is any indication, I’d be pessimistic about the entire class. 2022 was the 6th time since 1990 that no QB was taken in the top-15 picks of the NFL draft. The first QBs off the board in those other 5 drafts have a combined total of one top-12 fantasy season between them (by Chad Pennington). That bodes poorly for Kenny Pickett, and none of the other rookie QBs this year garnered better than a 3rd-round draft pick.
RB James Cook, BUF (Wk. 1: @LAR): Cook enters week 1 in a messy 3-way committee with Devin Singletary and Zack Moss, and he faces a defense that allowed the 9th-fewest RB points per game last season and remains one of the most talented defensive units in the NFL. Cook’s likely to see a handful of touches in week 1, but he’s going to be hard to trust as anything more than an upside play in DFS contests. He costs the minimum for the full slate on DraftKings, and $2,800 for showdown contests.
RB Kenneth Walker III, SEA (Wk. 1: vs. Den.): Walker has been battling a hernia injury (the non-sports variety) throughout camp. It’s still up in the air whether he’ll be able to suit up in week 1, but the missed time has him comfortably behind Rashaad Penny on the depth chart to start the season. Anything beyond 6-8 touches in week one for KW3 would be a bonus.
RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL (Wk. 1: vs. NO): Allgeier enters the season 3rd on the Falcons RB depth chart behind Cordarrelle Patterson and Damien Williams, and the Falcons face a New Orleans defense that ranked 1st in run defense DVOA and allowed the 2nd fewest RB points per game last season. There’s no reason to fire him up in the opener.
RB Zamir White, LV (Wk. 1: @LAC): White’s role for the early part of the season Looks to be mostly as a change of pace back on early downs behind Josh Jacobs while Ameer Abdullah handles the passing down work. That’s not a very useful role for fantasy, even against a Chargers’ defense that ranked 30th in run defense DVOA a season ago.
RB Trestan Ebner, CHI (Wk. 1: vs. SF): Ebner warrants watching in week 1 as a potential waiver pick-up for PPR leagues. There’s been a lot of buzz this offseason about his ability as a pass-catcher out of the backfield, but this week is not the one to try him out in lineups. The 49ers allowed the 9th-fewest RB receiving yards per game last season and we still don’t know just how big of a role Ebner will play in this offense. Take a wait-and-see approach with him in the early weeks.
RB Isiah Pacheco, KC (Wk. 1: @Ari.): Pacheco has been one of the biggest darlings of training camp. There’s been speculation that he’s going to play a meaningful role in the Chiefs offense after making the team as a 7th-round draft pick, but you’d be best off practicing patience with him for your lineups. Pacheco looks to work as the change of pace back for both early-down RB Clyde Edwards Helaire and 3rd down back Jerick McKinnon to start the season. The Cardinals should be significantly worse on defense than the unit that allowed the 7th-fewest RB points per game last year, but Pacheco’s limited role in a 3-headed backfield makes him a guy to avoid this week.
RB Isaiah Spiller, LAC (Wk. 1: vs. LV): Spiller seems to have gotten over a preseason ankle injury in time for week 1, but he’s fallen behind both Joshua Kelley and Sony Michel for the RB2 job and isn’t likely to have a prominent role in week 1. The Raiders aren’t a good defense – they allowed the 4th-most RB points per game last season, but Spiller won’t see enough work for that to matter.
RB Kyren Williams, LAR (Wk. 1: vs. Buf.): The Rams backfield rotation seems a little unsettled still, but I don’t envision a big role for Williams behind Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson to start the season. Williams’ biggest upside comes from his prowess as a receiver. He hauled in 35+ catches in each of the last two seasons at Notre Dame, but he enters an offense that doesn’t really target the backs in the passing game. The Rams have ranked dead last in the NFL in RB target share in each of the last two seasons, and although OC Kevin O’Connell departed to take the Vikings head coaching job, the Rams replaced him with Liam Coen who coached under O’Connell with the Rams in 2020. Coen spent 2021 as the Kentucky offensive coordinator, and the Wildcats’ running backs accounted for less than 10% of the team’s total receptions. Williams is a guy to monitor for later in the season, but he shouldn’t be near your week 1 lineup.
WR David Bell, CLE (Wk. 1: @Car.): There’s a good chance that Bell opens the season as the Browns’ WR3, but I don’t expect there to be a lot of fantasy production to go around for the pass catchers with Jacoby Brissett under center. The Browns will likely use a lot of 2-TE and 2-RB looks and probably won’t have 3 WRs on the field as much as most teams. Bell should be rostered in deeper PPR leagues, but he’s not a good option in week 1, especially against a Carolina defense that allowed the 3rd fewest fantasy points per game to opposing WRs lined up in the slot last season, per SIS.
WR Skyy Moore, KC (Wk. 1: @Ari.): The Chiefs look likely to enter the season with JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Mecole Hardman starting in 3-WR sets. Moore even played behind Justin Watson in the Chiefs' final preseason game. The rookie is going to work himself into a bigger role at some point this season, but he shouldn’t be near your lineup for week 1.
WR Velus Jones Jr., CHI (Wk. 1: vs. SF): Jones makes his NFL debut against a defense that was just in the middle of the pack last year against the pass (15th in pass defense DVOA), but he joins an offense with a messy WR depth chart after Darnell Mooney. The Bears figure to be run-heavy, with the passing offense running through Mooney and TE Cole Kmet. None of the other Chicago receivers should be in your week 1 lineup. Jones looks to be the WR4 on the depth chart at this point behind Mooney, Equanimeous St. Brown, and Byron Pringle, but that could change as the season moves along. Monitor Jones from afar.
WR Kyle Phillips, TEN (Wk. 1: vs. NYG): Phillips impressed early in camp and seemed to have a real chance to enter the season as the Titans starting slot WR at one point, but with Treylon Burks putting his early camp struggles behind him Phillips seems to be playing behind Robert Woods, Burks, and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine on the depth chart. Even if he had earned the WR3 role, only 9 teams spent a lower % of their plays in 11 personnel than the Titans did last year. Their offense runs through Derrick Henry, and they typically have a narrow passing target tree. Phillips doesn’t have much upside in the opener even in a good matchup with the Giants.
TE Cole Turner, WAS (Wk. 1: vs. Jax.): I had some hope for Turner to make my sleeper list this week with starting tight end Logan Thomas unlikely to suit up for week 1 and backup John Bates banged up as well, but Bates was able to get in a full practice on Tuesday. He’ll likely be ready to go for the opener, relegating Turner to the bench. Turner posted 62 receptions at 10 TDs at Nevada last season, and the Jaguars ranked 31st in pass defense DVOA last season. If for some reason Bates winds up missing this game, Turner is an intriguing DFS option that costs the minimum on DraftKings.
TE Cade Otton, TB (Wk. 1: @Dal.): Otton had some hype early in the offseason when Gronk retired once again, but the Bucs also added Kyle Rudolph in free agency and Otton has failed to beat out Rudolph or returning backup Cam Brate. He’ll open the season as Tampa’s TE3.
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
RB Jaylen Warren, PIT (Wk. 1: @Cin.): Warren’s signing as a UDFA went largely unnoticed in the spring but entering the season he’s the primary backup for Najee Harris. He isn’t a guy you should be plugging into any lineups, but he’s a great stash in deeper leagues in case anything happens to Najee. The Steelers’ backs other than Harris only handled 60 combined touches last year, but they’re likely to run more with Mitch Trubisky at QB, and Harris’ touches were close to maxed out in 2021. Pittsburgh passed at the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL last season.
WRs Christian Watson & Romeo Doubs, GB (Wk. 1: @Min.): The Packers said goodbye to one of the best wide receivers in football in the offseason, Davante Adams, along with another regular starter in Marquez Valdes-Scantling. They added rookies Watson and Doubs in the draft to help soften the blow of those departures. Watson has been hampered by preseason injuries but should be ready to go for the opener. Meanwhile, fourth-round pick Doubs has been the star of camp. Allen Lazard is the presumptive WR1 in this offense, but he’s not practicing this week with an ankle injury and could miss Sunday’s game. I know that sets up perfectly for another patented Sammy Watkins week 1 performance, but Watson & Doubs have a chance to play meaningful roles against a Minnesota defense that allowed the most WR fantasy points per game last year. I prefer Doubs to Watson for this week, but both players have an intriguing upside for DFS contests assuming Lazard is out. Doubs costs the minimum on DraftKings. Watson is a bit pricier at $5,100.
WR Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG (Wk. 1: @Ten.): Robinson’s outlook for week 1 got a little murkier this week when Sterling Shepard announced he expects to be ready for week 1 after suffering a torn Achilles back in December. Wan’Dale looked like a lock to be the team’s starting slot WR to open the year, and I still think Shepard is going to be eased back in. Shepard was the starting slot WR in 2021, but Brian Daboll is a new head coach with a new offensive system, and Wan’Dale is the one who has been practicing with the ones throughout camp and the first regular season depth chart released by the team has him listed as a starter. Assuming Robinson starts, he faces a Titans’ defense that allowed the most fantasy points to receivers lined up in the slot in the league last year, per SIS. I think something like 5-60 is very possible in the rookie’s debut, with upside for more.
TE Isaiah Likely, BAL (Wk. 1: @NYJ): Likely got lucky this preseason when fellow rookie teammate Charlie Kolar suffered a sports hernia and opened the door for Likely to step into the TE2 role behind Mark Andrews. Andrews is as cemented as the starter as can be, but the Ravens jettisoned their WR1 Marquise Brown in the offseason, leaving not much depth behind Rashod Bateman in the receiver room. James Proche, Devin Duvernay, and Tylan Wallace all failed to establish themselves as the clear third option in the passing game, and it’s possible that Likely has done enough to show he can fill that void. The Ravens are going to get Likely on the field a lot this year, and the season-opening matchup is a great one for tight ends. The Jets ranked dead last in pass defense DVOA last season and allowed the 5th-most TE points per game. Andrews will be the biggest beneficiary, but Isaiah Likely could see 5-7 targets himself in week 1 if he’s truly that third receiving option. Likely costs just $2,600 in the Draftkings showdown slate for this game.
TE Trey McBride, ARI (Wk. 1: vs. KC): Keep an eye on Zach Ertz’s status for the week 1 matchup if you’re considering McBride for a lineup. Ertz was able to return to the practice field for the first time in a couple of weeks on Wednesday. If he’s able to play, that makes McBride a bad week one option. If Ertz sits, McBride should be in line for a decent number of targets against a Kansas City defense that allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to in-line tight ends last year. Most of McBride’s snaps at Colorado State were as an in-line tight end. He’s a phenomenal pass catcher, having logged 90 catches in 12 games last season in college. If Ertz sits, I like his chances for 5+ receptions in the opener, and he costs just $1,800 in showdown contests.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you get your season started on the right foot. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.
January
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve made it to the end of another NFL season. Hopefully this season brought you fantasy success and good fortune. Hopefully my article last week helped talk some sense into you if you were considering sitting Ja’Marr Chase or Najee Harris last week, or helped you trust Amon-Ra St. Brown and Rhamondre Stevenson in the championship. In most leagues you already know whether or not you won. Most typical fantasy leagues this season were set up for a week 17 championship, and week 17 is now in the books, but not all leagues were set up that way. Some of you may be in leagues that were set up with a week 18 championship, or a two-week final that spans weeks 17 & 18. Your work isn’t done yet, and I’m here to help one more time if you have any rookies that you’re considering.
For those of you whose leagues concluded last week, you can put your feet up, kick back and relax this weekend and just watch the games for fun, or you can keep the fun rolling and dive into some DFS contests for the final week. The key for the final week is all about understanding motivation - which teams are motivated to win, and which teams are just trying to rest up for the playoffs or just get to the offseason. There will undoubtedly be unheralded players on those ‘unmotivated’ teams who see more action than we’re used to, and some of them are bound to be rookies. With that in mind, I’ll have a special section this week for rookies who could be in line for more work in week 18, and I’ll give a bit more of a DFS slant to some of the usual rookie suspects this week as well.
A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game numbers and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 18…
Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:
RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 18: @Bal.): The Ravens have been much better at defending the run than the pass, but that hasn’t stopped them from giving up 13+ fantasy points to a running back in each of their last 4 games, including to Najee in week 13. The Steelers will do everything in their power to try to get Ben Roethlisberger to the playoffs one more time, so we should see their normal starters for the whole game here. For Harris, that probably means close to 20 touches or more. That volume makes him an RB1 again this week. The Steelers still would need an unlikely Jacksonville upset over the Colts to have a shot at the postseason, but they’re not going to hold Najee back.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:
QB Trey Lance, SF (Wk. 18: @LAR): Jimmy Garoppolo’s status remains up in the air for this week, but if Lance gets the nod, he should be treated like a low-end QB1 even in a tough matchup. The Rams allow the 6th-fewest QB points per game, but Lance has averaged 55 rushing yards per game in the 3 contests where he’s seen extended playing time, and the Rams allow more QB rushing yards per game than any of the 3 teams Lance has faced. This week’s slate is already missing Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson, and a number of other QB are at risk of being pulled early either due to clinched playoff spots or if their team pulls away – Dak Prescott, Aaron Rodgers, Carson Wentz, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Mac Jones, Tom Brady. It’s hard to argue against Lance as a top-10 QB this week given how risky some of the usual top QBs are, and how much floor his rushing provides.
QB Davis Mills, HOU (Wk. 18: vs. Ten.): Mills was a disappointment last week, but he finished as a top-15 quarterback in each of the 4 starts prior, and this week he faces a Titans’ defense that has allowed the 13th-most QB points per game. Houston should be in a negative game script that will keep Mills throwing. Mills isn’t any more than a QB2 option this week, but a lot of QBs may not play full games in week 18, and with Mills, you know he’s likely to play the whole thing.
RB Elijah Mitchell, SF (Wk. 18: @LAR): The 49ers have had the Rams’ number since Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay took over as coaches for those franchises. SF has beaten LA 6 times in 9 meetings, including the last 5 in a row. The Rams need to win this game to clinch the division title, but the 49ers need to win it to clinch a playoff spot. San Francisco is likely to be the more desperate team, and Mitchell has been a focal point of the offense whenever he’s healthy. Mitchell has handled 17+ carries 8 times this season, and he’s rushed for 90+ yards in 6 of those games, including the first meeting with these Rams. The Rams are a tough matchup, ranked 4th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat, but Mitchell should see a big workload and is a safe RB2 with upside for more.
RB Michael Carter, NYJ (Wk. 18: @Buf.): Carter left quickly last week with a concussion but sounds likely to get cleared ahead of this week’s finale in Buffalo. If he plays, Carter should see a big workload in a matchup that is much more favorable than it was a couple months ago. Buffalo will be pulling out all the stops, needing a win to clinch the division title, but their run defense has crumbled in recent weeks. Buffalo allowed only 2 backs to reach 10+ fantasy points in their first 8 games of the season but have allowed 7 backs to hit that mark in their last 8, including Carter in week 10. Five of the 6 highest rushing yardage totals they’ve allowed this season also came in those 8 games. Don’t be afraid of the matchup here. Carter should be treated as an RB2 this week.
RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 18: @Mia.): The Patriots are favored by just 6 points this week, but it’s a game where one team is motivated to win, and the other isn’t. We’ve seen New England dismantle teams when they play with a purpose. The Patriots were on the winning side of 3 of the 7 most lopsided games in the NFL this season. The Patriots need this win to keep their hopes of a division title alive, and Damien Harris is expected to play through a hamstring injury this week. I’d expect that we see a lot of Rhamondre if the Patriots get out in front as New England lets Harris rest his hammy as much as they can. The Dolphins allow the 7th-fewest RB points per game, but they were steamrolled by D’Onta Foreman and Dontrell Hilliard last week and have less motivation to win this week. I’d expect Stevenson to have a floor somewhere around 60 yards, but he has similar upside to last week, when he scored 22.7 fantasy points.
RB Jaret Patterson, WAS (Wk. 18: @NYG): Antonio Gibson is practicing as though he’s going to return this week from a hip injury that sidelined him in week 17, but there’s little reason for Washington to push for him to return for a meaningless tilt with the Giants. I wouldn’t be surprised if Gibson winds up inactive for this one, but even if he plays, Patterson should still play quite a bit against a defense that allows the 8th-most RB points per game and ranks 29th in run defense DVOA. 12-15 touches against that defense are likely even if Gibson plays. That should put Patterson on the RB2/3 borderline, and he bumps up higher if Gibson sits.
WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Wk. 18: vs. GB): St. Brown has been on an absolute tear over the last 5 weeks, totaling at least 11 targets, 8 receptions and 70 yards in every single game, and finding the end zone at least once in 4 of them. I wouldn’t bet against him continuing to produce in week 18. Jared Goff will be back at QB, D’Andre Swift said he expects his own usage to be similar to last week (57% snap share, 8% target share), so he shouldn’t steal too many of Amon-Ra’s opportunities. The Packers have the number 1 seed locked up and will be resting many of their starters and the Lions can’t hurt their draft position with a win unless the Jaguars also win this week, which is HIGHLY unlikely. Detroit is going to treat this game like their Super Bowl, and that should mean a lot of ARSB again. I wouldn’t treat him as a lock to approach 20 fantasy points again, but his target volume should approach what we’ve seen from him in recent weeks. That makes him at least an upside WR3 this week.
WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 18: vs. NE): Waddle moves out of the auto-start range this week with the Dolphins having little to play for, but I still like his chances for a solid game. The Pats allow the 5th-fewest WR points per game, but they’ve struggled to contain slot receivers. New England’s slot corner Jalen Mills has allowed a 115.4 passer rating into his coverage, and the Pats allowed slot receiver stat lines of 7-73 to Braxton Berrios, 6-77-1 to Keenan Allen, 11-125-1 to Isaiah McKenzie, and 4-64-1 to Jaylen Waddle in the first meeting with Miami. Miami could get some bench guys involved if they fall way behind, but Waddle should be heavily involved until that happens.
WR Rashod Bateman, BAL (Wk. 18: vs. Pit.): Bateman’s had a bit of an up-and-down rookie year, but he has shown a connection with backup QB Tyler Huntley, amassing 7 receptions in 2 of Huntley’s last 3 starts, and the Steelers are just a middling pass defense. Bateman should primarily matchup up with Cameron Sutton, who has allowed over 9 yards per target and a 114.5 passer rating into his coverage. The Ravens still have slim playoff hopes headed into this week, so they won’t hold anything back. Bateman is probably going to see the ball come his way 7+ times and has a chance to post one of his better games of the season.
TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 18: vs. NO): Pitts is battling a hamstring injury that he suffered last week and faces a New Orleans defense that allows the 8th-fewest TE points per game. He’s still a worthwhile TE play if he’s able to go. Pitts enters week 18 just 59 yards away from breaking Mike Ditka’s record for receiving yards by a rookie tight end, and the Falcons don’t have much left to play for other than breaking that record. It’s not a great matchup for Pitts, but I expect the Falcons to go out of their way to make sure he gets that record. He probably needs to finally score his second TD for a ceiling week, but he should have close to a 60-yard floor if he’s able to play.
TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 18: @Bal.): Freiermuth saw his highest target total since week 11 on Monday night, but he turned it into an underwhelming 5-22 line. It’s hard to put much blame on Pat as Ben Roethlisberger put up literally one of the least efficient passing performances of all-time. He became only the 14th QB ever to have a game with 20+ attempts, a 50% completion percentage or better, and fewer than 3 yards per attempt. Ben had 14 more passing attempts Monday night than any of the other 13 QBs on the list. I can’t imagine that Ben is that inefficient again this week, and the Ravens allow the 6th-most TE points per game. Freiermuth is always a fringe TE1, and this week he gets a plus matchup with Big Ben due for a bounce-back game. I like his chances at a strong game.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:
QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 18: @Mia.): I expect the Patriots to be in control of their game again this week, and for Jones to be efficient in a conservative gameplan again, but I don’t expect the team to put up anywhere near the 50 points they scored last Sunday. You could do worse if you’re looking for a QB2, but Mac has a limited ceiling in this one. He’s thrown for under 230 yards in 7 of his last 9 games and accounted for multiple TDs in just 4 of them.
RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 18: vs. KC): In two games with Drew Lock under center, Williams has run for 42 yards on 21 carries, and posted 10 receiving yards on 3 targets and 3 receptions. He was able to salvage his day in week 16 with a TD, but he put up just 4.2 PPR points in championship week. Defenses have been able to stack the box to prevent Denver’s run game from getting going, and I don’t see that changing this week. The Chiefs can lock up the #2 seed and homefield advantage through the divisional round with a win and should be motivated. Williams put up his best game of the season in the Broncos’ first meeting with KC, but he did that with Melvin Gordon sidelined and Teddy B under center. Javonte has a bright future in 2022, but I wouldn’t treat him as anything more than an upside RB3 this week.
RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Wk. 18: @TB): Sam Darnold’s return to the starting lineup last week was clearly a good thing for Hubbard, who posted his best fantasy day since week 8 last weekend, but it won’t be enough to overcome a rough matchup this week. The Bucs allow the 4th-fewest RB points per game and held Hubbard to 9 yards on 6 carries just two weeks ago. Bruce Arians has also been clear that the Bucs aren’t resting up for the playoffs. They’re playing to win this week. Hubbard has upside as the Panthers’ lead back, but he’s got a low floor that will get even lower if the Bucs pull away in this one.
WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 18: vs. Dal.): Everything about this game points towards both teams resting their starters for a large chunk of the game. Smith has earned more than 6 targets just once in the last 9 games. There could be a bigger target share than usual for him with Dallas Goedert on the Covid list, but that won’t matter all that much if he plays a limited number of snaps and matches up with Trevon Diggs when he’s on the field. Smith has WR2/3 upside as usual, but he’s got a lower floor than usual as well.
WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 18: @Cle.): I know, Chase single-handedly won many people their championships last weekend, but he’s as dicey a play this week as he’s been all season. The Bengals have already ruled out Joe Burrow for this week and will likely be without Joe Mixon as well. Any hopes the Bengals have to secure the AFC’s 1-seed will be dashed if the Chiefs win on Saturday, and I wouldn’t expect them to go all-out when a win this week simply guarantees them the 3-seed instead of #4. Brandon Allen will start in Burrow’s place. He got 5 starts last season and averaged just 191 passing yards and 1 TD per game. The Browns have allowed the 12th-fewest WR points per game, and there’s a real chance that Chase won’t play the full game. If you have a week 18 game, I’d view Chase as a very risky WR3 option, and wouldn’t pay up for him in DFS at his $8,300 DraftKings price.
TE John Bates, WAS (Wk. 18: @NYG): Bates has proven to be a viable desperation floor play tight end since taking over the starting job in Washington. He’s reached 35 yards in 3 of the last 5 games, and found the end zone in one of them, but that’s not enough to make him a reasonable starting option if you’re not desperate. He’s also more expensive than I’d like for DFS given what his production has looked like. A line in the range of 3-40 with a slim chance of a TD feels like the high end of what you should expect here. Dalton Schultz is the only tight end to score 10+ fantasy points against the Giants in the last 6 weeks.
Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:
QB Zach Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 18: @Buf.): Wilson has played improved football in recent weeks, but the Bills defense has held 7 of the last 9 QBs they’ve faced below 12 fantasy points, and they figure to be locked-in for this one with the division title at stake. Even with his improved play, Wilson has only accounted for multiple TDs 4 times all season. There’s a lot more floor than ceiling here.
QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 18: vs. Ind.): The Colts allow the 8th-most QB points per game, but Lawrence has topped a dozen fantasy points just twice in his last 10 games, and the Colts need to win this game to make the playoffs. I wouldn’t count on an out-of-the-blue breakout game for Lawrence. Hopefully he’s able to put things back together next season with a new coaching staff.
WR Josh Palmer, LAC (Wk. 18: @LV): With all the Chargers’ receivers healthy last week, Palmer still garnered 5 targets for the Chargers, but his playing time dropped significantly from week 16. Jalen Guyton is another week removed from the Covid list, so Palmer’s snap share could drop further this week. Palmer has reached 30 receiving yards just twice all season. He played over 85% of the offensive snaps in both of those games. He won’t approach that kind of playing time in the must-win matchup with the Raiders.
WR Nico Collins, HOU (Wk. 18: vs. Ten.): Collins costs too much to be a worthwhile DFS play in a plus matchup for WRs, and he isn’t a consistent enough producer to be worth consideration for regular lineups. Collins has put up 7-82-1 on 13 targets in the last 3 weeks combined. The Titans allow the 2nd-most WR points per game, but the only trustworthy WR in this offense in Brandin Cooks.
WR D’Wayne Eskridge, SEA (Wk. 18: @Ari.): The Seahawks don’t have much to play for this weekend, but I expect Pete Carroll to attempt to make a last stand of sorts. A win this week probably won’t put his job on any more stable footing, but I expect Carroll to coach to win. Eskridge hasn’t handled more than 3 touches in any game this season, and I don’t see a good reason that changes this week.
TE Brevin Jordan, HOU (Wk. 18: vs. Ten.): Jordan has been targeted more than 4 times in a game just once all season, and the Titans have allowed the 6th-fewest TE points per game this season. Tennessee needs a win in this game to secure a first-round bye, and they’ll be eager to avenge a loss to Houston in week 11, so there will be no let up from their defense. Jordan should see a handful of targets, but that’s not likely to be enough for a productive week in this one. No tight end has scored a TD against the Titans since week 8.
TE Kenny Yeboah, NYJ (Wk. 18: @Buf.): Yeboah was thrust into the starting role last week with Trevon Wesco on IR and Tyler Kroft on the Covid list, but it resulted in just 2 targets for the rookie. Kroft was activated earlier this week. That means Yeboah probably plays closer to 30% of the snaps than the 61% share he played last Sunday. I’d be surprised if he sees more than 2 or 3 targets in this one, and he’s facing a Buffalo defense that allows the 5th-fewest TE points per game.
TE Tommy Tremble, CAR (Wk. 18: @TB): Tremble missed last week with Covid. If he’s feeling any lingering effects from that, it makes his chances of a longshot good game even longer. Even if he’s at full strength, Tremble’s best fantasy performance in the last 10 games resulted in 5.5 PPR points. There isn’t any upside here.
Rookies Who Could Get Extended Playing Time in Week 18:
RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 18: vs. Dal., DK Showdown price: $1,600): Miles Sanders has been ruled out for week 18, and Jordan Howard and Boston Scott were both placed on the Covid list earlier this week. That leaves Gainwell as the only healthy back on the team. Obviously, it’s possible that one or both of Howard and Scott get cleared to return this week, but if they don’t, Gainwell is going to handle a huge number of touches against a Dallas team that may be resting starters since they’ve already clinched the division. Don’t be surprised if Gainwell comes out of nowhere to post a top-15 RB performance in the finale.
RB Chris Evans, CIN (Wk. 18: @Cle., DK Showdown price: $1,000): With Joe Mixon sidelined this week, the Bengals’ backfield work will be split between Samaje Perine and Evans. Perine has been the clear-cut RB2 in this offense this year, but this could be a golden opportunity to get the receiving specialist Evans some extra work with the Bengals nearly a touchdown underdog. Brandon Allen is more likely to check down than Joe Burrow. I’d expect Evans to play at least 25% of the offensive snaps, with the possibility for more if the Bengals do fall behind. 5+ targets and 5+ carries are well within the reasonable range of expectations for Evans this week.
RB Khalil Herbert, CHI (Wk. 18: @Min., DK Showdown price: $800): The Bears and Vikings don’t have much to play for this week with both eliminated from playoff contention. I think it’s likely that Matt Nagy knows that a win here won’t save his job, so there’s no reason to run David Montgomery into the ground. Andy Dalton gets the start for Chicago with Justin Fields on the Covid list, and I’d expect Chicago to be handing off plenty. Herbert is a risky option who is only worth consideration for Showdown DFS contests, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he sees increased playing time in the 2nd half against a defense that ranks 25th in run defense DVOA.
RB Demetric Felton, CLE (Wk. 18: vs. Cin., DK Showdown price: $200): It remains up in the air whether or not Kareem Hunt will be able to return for this game and D’Ernest Johnson was placed on the Covid list this week. That leaves just Felton behind Nick Chubb on the Browns’ running back depth chart. Johnson has played over 30% of the offensive snaps in each of the last 3 games with Hunt sidelined. If Johnson can’t get cleared, I wouldn’t expect Felton’s role to be quite that big, but 20+ snaps are a possibility. His receiving skill gives him a double-digit point ceiling even if his floor remains non-existent.
WR Anthony Schwartz, CLE (Wk. 18: vs. Cin., DK Showdown price: $1,400): Schwartz played his highest snap share since week 9 last Monday, taking snaps away from Rashard Higgins in the process. The Browns could increase that even more this week as they evaluate what they have in the rookie. Case Keenum will be starting at QB for the Browns, and Schwartz likely has a solid rapport with Keenum due to practicing together with the second team offense. Schwartz has been targeted 3+ times in just 3 games this season, and one of them was Keenum’s only start of the season. The Bengals will be resting many of their starters, which means Schwartz could make a splash play or two against their backup DBs. His floor is essentially 0 points, but there’s a chance for a boom game here.
WR Amari Rodgers, GB (Wk. 18: @Det., DK Showdown price: $200): I’d be surprised if any key Packers are still on the field in the 2nd half of this game, and even Jordan Love should be able to have success throwing against Detroit’s defense that ranks 29th in pass defense DVOA. I expect Amari and Equanimeous St. Brown to play a lot in the second half, and that gives Amari huge upside at his $200 Showdown slate price tag.
That’s all I’ve got for this season. Hopefully it helps guide you to championship victory in your leagues if that’s still up for grabs, or at least a little DFS cash. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. It’s been a pleasure bringing you these rookie tidbits all year, and I look forward to doing it again with the new rookie crop in 2022. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
January
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve finally arrived at the week we’ve been waiting for – Championship Week! Hopefully your squads have survived the rigors of the season, and the multitude of injury and Covid-19 absences in recent weeks to make it this far. Hopefully you didn’t get Tee Higgins’d, or Justin Jackson’d or Rex Burkhead-ed last weekend. Week 16 served as a valuable reminder that it doesn’t matter what your team did for the first 15 weeks of the season. What matters is what they do this week. Don’t completely throw caution to the wind and bench your best players, but don’t be afraid to think a little outside the box this week.
I want to emphasize, this week of all weeks, not to take the headers below as gospel. Please consider your league rules and what your roster looks like when applying any of the advice below. Don’t start Rhamondre Stevenson over a back like Ronald Jones or Chase Edmonds, or Amon Ra-St. Brown over receivers like Michael Pittman or Brandin Cooks just because I said I’d lean towards starting them. Put it in the context of your team and make the decision that makes the most sense for your roster.
A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game numbers and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 17…
Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:
RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 17: vs. Cle.): The Browns aren’t a great matchup for running backs, allowing the 10th-fewest running back points per game, but Najee has scored a dozen or more fantasy points in 12 of his 15 games this season, including 19.5 points in his first meeting with the Browns. He has to be in your lineup this week if you have him.
WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 17: vs. KC): Chase got back on track in week 16 with his first 100-yard game since October, and that should give you the confidence you need to fire him up Sunday. The Chiefs aren’t a pushover on defense, allowing the 11th-fewest WR points per game and ranking 13th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA stat, but they’re hardly a matchup to run away from. The Bengals have been more pass-heavy in recent weeks (Joe Burrow has averaged 35.5 attempts in the last 4 weeks after averaging 30.8 prior to that), and they’ll likely have to throw in this one as 5-point underdogs. We’ve seen that the floor isn’t as rock solid as we’d like with Chase, but few WRs can match his ceiling.
WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 17: @Ten.): Since Tua returned from IR in week 6, Waddle is the PPR WR7. He’s tallied 7+ receptions in 7 of 9 games in that stretch, and 60+ receiving yards in 8 of 9. He hasn’t flashed week-winning upside often, but he should be as safe as it gets facing a Titans’ defense that allows the 2nd-most WR points per game.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:
QB Trey Lance, SF (Wk. 17: vs. Hou.): Lance is in line to make his second start of the season with Jimmy Garoppolo battling a thumb ailment, and he gets a reasonable matchup in the Houston Texans. The Texans have been playing better defense in recent weeks, holding 4 of the last 7 QBs they’ve faced below a dozen points, but for the season they’ve allowed the 15th-most QB points per game and rank a middling 15th in pass defense DVOA. Lance’s rushing ability also gives him a built-in floor that those other QBs the Texans limited didn’t have. The Texans have allowed the 2nd-fewest QB rushing yards per game, which sounds daunting for Lance...but in the two games where Lance has seen extended playing time, he ran for 41 yards in one half against the defense that allows the 4th-fewest QB rushing yards (Seattle), and for 89 yards against the defense that allows the 12th-fewest QB rushing yards (Arizona). Designed runs will be a part of the game plan, and I expect Lance to put up the highest QB rushing total the Texans have allowed this season (their current high is 41). I’d view Lance as a low-end QB1 this week, and he could finish as a high-end QB1 if he has an efficient passing day.
QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 17: vs. Jax.): I’d only lean towards playing Jones in 2-QB and Superflex formats, but the Jaguars have proven easier to attack through the air than on the ground this season. Blowout losses have limited how much passing volume the Jaguars have faced, but QBs have still done some damage with that limited volume. 6 of the last 9 QBs they faced threw for fewer than 200 yards, but 4 of those 6 QBs still put up 15+ fantasy points. The Jaguars rank 31st in pass defense DVOA and a middling 16th in run defense DVOA. The Patriots are favored by 16.5 points, so this one very well could get out of hand and have the Pats running for much of the 2nd half, but I like Jones’ chances to make an impact before it’s too lopsided. A 200-yard, 3-score kind of game is what you’re hoping for here.
QB Davis Mills, HOU (Wk. 17: @SF): It feels like only yesterday that twitter was cracking jokes about Mills’ weirdly long giraffe neck, but his play on the field over the last couple months should have them talking about him for a different reason. In his last 4 starts, Mills has averaged 276 passing yards per game, and racked up a 7 to 2 TD:INT ratio, and he’s finished as a top-15 fantasy QB in every one of those weeks. All 4 of the defenses he faced in those games have allowed fewer QB points per game this season than the 49ers. Mills isn’t going to go out and drop 25+ fantasy points in championship week. He doesn’t have that kind of big ceiling, but he’s a much safer QB2 option than you might realize.
RB Elijah Mitchell, SF (Wk. 17: vs. Hou.): Mitchell seems to be trending in the right direction to play this week, and coach Kyle Shanahan is quoted as saying “We’ll play Elijah as much as he can handle.” The 49ers are likely to run the ball as much as they can against a Houston defense that ranks 26th in run defense DVOA and allows the 4th-most running back points per game, and the threat of QB Trey Lance running the ball could make it even easier for Mitchell to find space to run. There’s obvious baked-in risk here since Mitchell has missed the last 3 games and could be eased in, but the upside in this matchup is big if he sees 15+ touches. I’d treat him as an upside RB2 in championship week.
RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 17: vs. Jax.): If you read about Mac Jones above, you know that the Patriots are more than a 2-touchdown favorite in this game, and that should mean a lot of Rhamondre and Damien Harris. The Jaguars have been an average run defense, ranking 16th in run defense DVOA, but Stevenson should see plenty of volume in a one-sided game. Stevenson has handled 10+ carries in 5 of the last 6 games he’s played. He topped 60 rushing yards in 4 of them and seems a sure bet for 10+ carries again this week. I wouldn’t treat him as a surefire top-20 play this week, but if you’re searching for a flex play, Stevenson is a player I like this week. If you do plan to start him, keep an eye on reports from the Pats to make sure he isn’t suffering any ill effects from his bout with Covid. If he’s good to go, he’s a strong flex play/RB3.
WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Wk. 17: @Sea.): ARSB has already shown us that he can produce without Jared Goff under center, posting a 9-91-1 receiving line with Tim Boyle under center last week. I’m not going to be the one to bet against him keeping it up just because D’Andre Swift is back. St. Brown has seen 11+ targets in 4 straight games and faces a defense this week that ranks 28th in pass defense DVOA. Swift will likely cut into his target share a little bit, but he’s likely going to be in the range of 7-9 targets against this defense, which is enough to make the Sun God an upside PPR WR3 again this week.
WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 17: @Was.): Smith has shown us the peaks and valleys that come with being the WR1 in a run-heavy offense over the last two months. Devonta’s played 8 games since the Eagles’ philosophical shift to running the ball happened. He scored over 17 fantasy points in 3 of them, and fewer than 6 points in 4 of them, including in the first meeting with Washington. That same boom-or-bust element applies in week 17, but I like Smith’s chances at greatly improving on the 3-40 line he posted against Washington two weeks ago. In that game, Washington was missing key pieces of their front 7 due to Covid, and the Eagles were able to have their way with them on the ground, running for over 6 yards per carry with their running backs. Most of those Washington defenders are now back, and the Eagles will be playing without Miles Sanders and possibly without Jordan Howard (the two backs who piled up those yards). I don’t expect Boston Scott and Kenneth Gainwell to have the same success running the ball this time around against a defense that ranks 15th in run defense DVOA. That means increased passing volume against a defense that allows the 3rd-most WR points per game. I think Smith posts a double-digit point performance Sunday.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:
QB Zach Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 17: vs. TB): You probably aren’t considering Wilson anyway, but Tampa has allowed the 9th-most QB points per game and have already ruled out two of their top pass rushers for this week (Jason Pierre-Paul and Shaquil Barrett). Wilson also flashed some running ability last week against the Jaguars. There are reasons to think he’s a sneaky QB2 play this week despite being a 2-touchdown underdog. I just want to remind you that it’s not worth the risk in championship week. Wilson has thrown for 230+ yards just twice all year, run for 20+ just twice all year, and accounted for multiple TDs just 4 times in 11 starts, and the Bucs rank 4th in pass defense DVOA. It would be a huge roll of the dice to trust Wilson in championship week.
RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 17: @LAC): With Drew Lock under center, the Broncos’ run game cratered last week as the Raiders were able to focus on stopping Williams and Melvin Gordon. Williams posted 12 yards and a score on 7 rushes while Gordon ran 7 times for negative-4 yards. The matchup is better this week against a Chargers’ defense that ranks dead last in run defense DVOA, but the Denver passing game will offer even less of a threat this week with Jerry Jeudy and Tim Patrick sidelined by Covid, and Williams is battling through a knee injury that may have contributed to his poor performance last week. There’s plenty of upside here as the Chargers allow the 3rd-most RB points per game, but I’d rather rely on a more trustworthy option with my season on the line this week.
RB Michael Carter, NYJ (Wk. 17: vs. TB): Carter returned from IR last week and handled a 74% snap share and 19 touches in a strong performance against the Jaguars. The sledding gets much tougher this week against Tampa Bay. Carter should again handle most of the backfield work, which puts him very much in play as an RB2 or RB3 this week, but Tampa has allowed the 3rd-fewest rushing yards this season and ranks 11th in run defense DVOA. They’ve been vulnerable to backs in the passing game, allowing nearly 7 receptions per game to backs, but Carter hasn’t been targeted by Zach Wilson more than 3 times in any game this season. All of his best receiving efforts happened while Wilson was sidelined. Counting on garbage time receiving work for Carter seems like an ill-advised strategy in championship week.
RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Wk. 17: @NO): Hubbard has averaged just 8 carries and fewer than 1 target per game in the last 3 weeks, and this week faces a defense that ranks 1st in run defense DVOA and allows the fewest running back points per game. He’ll continue to operate as the lead back on early downs, but even if the Panthers are more competitive this week and Hubbard gets more carries, there’s no guarantee he’s more successful with those carries or that he won’t get vultured by Cam at the goal line. I wouldn’t count on double-digit points for Chuba.
WR Rashod Bateman, BAL (Wk. 17: vs. LAR): Bateman has been playing an every down role the last two weeks, and the Ravens are underdogs and should be throwing against a middling Rams’ WR defense (they allow the 15th-fewest points per game to the position). Despite that, I’d steer clear of him in your championship matchups. There’s a possibility Sammy Watkins sees more work this week in his second game back from the Covid list, and Bateman has really only had one productive quarter in his last 5 games. He tallied 5 receptions for 79 yards in the 4th quarter of a furious comeback attempt against the Browns in week 14. Outside of that quarter, he’s totaled 11 catches, 115 yards, and 1 touchdown in the last 5 games. Of course, there’s upside for him here if the Ravens fall behind and have to throw, but a 4-30 kind of game is just as likely (if not more likely) than an 80+ yard day.
WR Nico Collins, HOU (Wk. 17: @SF): Collins has come on a bit in recent weeks, with double-digit PPR points in two of his last 3 games, but his production hasn’t been consistent enough to trust him this week with your season on the line. The 49ers do allow the 9th-most WR points per game, but Brandin Cooks is easily the WR1 in this offense that has thrown the ball 30 or fewer times in 5 of their last 6 games. It’s possible the Texans fall in a hole and have to throw a bit more in this one (they’re 12.5-point underdogs), but I like their chances to stay within striking distance as Trey Lance makes just his 2nd NFL start. Despite Collins’ recent increased workload, he’s reached 35+ receiving yards just once in the last 7 games.
WR Josh Palmer, LAC (Wk. 17: vs. Den.): Palmer was a great streamer play in two of the last 3 weeks while the Chargers battled Covid issues in their wide receiver room. He posted 15+ PPR points in week 14 and week 16, but both Mike Williams and Jalen Guyton have been cleared to return this week. We’ve seen a trend of players coming off the Covid list getting their workload dialed back a bit, so Palmer could still see extended playing time, but the Broncos allow the 8th-fewest WR points per game. The matchup isn’t good, and Palmer’s floor is basically non-existent if Williams and Guyton get their usual workloads.
TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 17: vs. Cle.): Freiermuth is expected back this week, and you know what to expect from him if he plays. He’s going to probably have 3-4 receptions for 30-40 yards, and he may or may not find the end zone. It’s that last part that will determine if he was a good play or not. Freiermuth has found the end zone in 6 of the last 9 games he’s played, including in the first meeting with these Browns, but many of the TDs the Browns have allowed to tight ends have been to elite players at the position. Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews have accounted for half of the 8 TDs the Browns have allowed to tight ends. Ultimately, if you’re projected to win your matchup this week and just need floor production from the position, Freiermuth is probably fine, but he doesn’t provide much upside beyond 15 or so PPR points. He’s a low-end TE1 this week.
TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 17: @Buf.): You might not have a better option on your roster but be warned that this is a dangerous matchup for Pitts. The Bills allow the 3rd-fewest tight end points per game and have only allowed 2 tight ends all season to score as many as 9 fantasy points (Logan Thomas and Travis Kelce). Pitts’ volume should be there. He’s been targeted 6+ times in all but two games this season, but tight ends with 6+ targets against Buffalo have averaged just 7.7 fantasy points against them. Pitts is still a low-end TE1 play based on his volume and role in the offense, but the floor here is lower than usual.
TE Brevin Jordan, HOU (Wk. 17: @SF): Jordan has carved out a nice chunk of the Texans passing game for himself in recent weeks despite serving as the team’s TE2 behind Pharaoh Brown. Over his last 4 games, he’s totaled 18 targets, 13 receptions, 112 yards and 2 TDs and been the TE14 over that span. I don’t see this as a week where he exceeds that rank. The 49ers have allowed the 6th-fewest TE points per game. They’ve allowed just 3 tight ends to exceed 40 receiving yards against them all year and haven’t allowed a tight end touchdown since week 10. Jordan is a TD dart throw that I’d bet against scoring a TD this week.
TE John Bates, WAS (Wk. 17: vs. Phi.): Bates has functioned as Washington’s starting tight end for about a month now, and he faces off with the worst TE defense in the NFL this week, so he’s worth at least some consideration as a desperation streamer. I’d still look elsewhere this week if you’re digging this deep. Last week was the first time in the 3 games since Ricky Seals-Jones returned from IR that Bates out-targeted RSJ, and neither player had a target until the second half of that game when Washington trailed by 5+ touchdowns. There’s a risk that RSJ plays more this week if there’s less garbage time, and that pushes an already shaky streamer to an unusable range for me. Bates is also too rich for my blood in DFS showdown contests ($4,600 on DraftKings).
Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:
QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 17: @NE): The Pats remain a nightmare matchup for most rookie QBs. Since Bill Belichick took over as New England’s head coach in 2000, the Pats have held 49% of the rookie QBs they’ve faced below 10 fantasy points (17 out of 35). Lawrence has accounted for just 1 total touchdown in his last 8 games, and the Jaguars have an implied point total of just 12.5 points this week. You could take a chance on T-Law as a QB2 on the sole basis that he’s due for a good game, but nothing about this matchup or Lawrence’s recent performance points to a solid game for the rookie.
QB Justin Fields, CHI (Wk. 17: vs. NYG): If you missed the update, the Bears announced Friday that Andy Dalton will start in week 17 with Fields still battling through an injury. I’d be surprised if Fields is active.
RB Khalil Herbert, CHI (Wk. 17: vs. NYG): The Giants are bad enough that the Bears could actually pull off a convincing win this week and allow Herbert to get some extended run late in the game, but you can’t count on that in championship week. Khalil has handled 5 or fewer touches in all 7 games since David Montgomery returned from IR.
RB Demetric Felton, CLE (Wk. 17: @Pit.): Felton filled in a lot at slot WR in week 15 with Jarvis Landry out with Covid, but he was back down to just 4 snaps on Sunday with Landry back. He’s not start-able.
RB Kene Nwangwu, MIN (Wk. 17: @GB): The new NFL Covid protocols announced this week made it easier for Dalvin Cook to return for this game, so Cook and Alexander Mattison should handle the bulk of the backfield work in this one. Nwangwu will be back to handling just special teams.
WR Rondale Moore, ARI (Wk. 17: @Dal.): Moore missed last week with an ankle injury, but the same things I wrote about him last week still apply. He hasn’t topped 50 scrimmage yards in his last 9 games, and Dallas ranks 1st in pass defense DVOA. If there’s one glimmer of hope for Moore this week, it’s that the Cowboys allow the 3rd-most yards after catch, but you can’t count on a useful game from Rondale if he’s active given what we’ve gotten from him this year.
WR D’Wayne Eskridge, SEA (Wk. 17: vs. Det.): With Tyler Lockett back in action last week, Eskridge was back down to playing just 20 offensive snaps. He still saw 3 targets and one rushing attempt on those limited snaps, but I wouldn’t bet on a breakout game here against a defense that allows the 10th-fewest WR points per game. The Seahawks have a great chance to play from ahead for once and lean on the run game as 7-point favorites.
WR Dez Fitzpatrick, TEN (Wk. 17: vs. Mia.): The Titans are battling some Covid issues this week with Julio Jones and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine expected to miss this game on the reserve list, but don’t count on that resulting in a significant opportunity for Dez. AJ Brown saw a 55% target share in his first game back from IR. I don’t expect that share to be quite as high this week, but AJB should dominate targets again in what is already a low volume passing attack. The WR scraps will be split between Fitzpatrick, Racey McMath, and Chester Rodgers. Even against a Miami defense allowing the 8th-most WR points per game, none of that trio are worth anything more than a low-cost dart throw in DFS showdown contests. Dez, at $200 on DraftKings, is probably the most cost-effective option, but none are particularly good plays.
WRs Terrace Marshall Jr. & Shi Smith, CAR (Wk. 17: @NO): The Panthers’ passing game got even harder to predict last week with Sam Darnold and Cam Newton splitting playing time at QB. Marshall is playing a lot of snaps as the WR3, but he isn’t getting targeted. He has just 2 targets across nearly 80 offensive snaps played in the last 3 games. Smith, on the other hand, was productive last week (3 catches for 86 yards on 4 targets) but played just 15 snaps. Neither is trustworthy in championship week.
WR Anthony Schwartz, CLE (Wk. 17: @Pit.): Schwartz got in the end zone last week but handled just 3 touches on 11 offensive snaps in the process. He’s the distant WR4 in this offense right now.
WR Tylan Wallace, BAL (Wk. 17: vs. LAR): Wallace saw his first extended action of the season last week with Devin Duvernay sidelined and Sammy Watkins playing just 3 snaps in his return from the Covid list. He was targeted just twice. Duvernay could be out again, but I’d expect Watkins to see his playing time ramped up. Another 2-target game would be a reasonable expectation for Wallace this week.
WR Ben Skowronek, LAR (Wk. 17: @Bal.): Skowronek followed his best game of the season by playing just 4 offensive snaps last weekend. The return of Tyler Higbee seems to have drastically cut into his playing time. He’s off the fantasy radar this week.
WRs Dyami Brown & Dax Milne, WAS (Wk. 17: vs. Phi.): Don’t let a few targets and big play by Dyami last week fool you. These guys aren’t worth consideration. They played a combined 20 snaps last week, and the Eagles allow the 2nd-fewest WR points per game. Elijah Moore is the only receiver to score 10+ points against Philly in their last 6 games.
WR Kadarius Toney, NYG (Wk. 17: @Chi.): Toney returned last week to NINE targets against the Eagles, but he’s suffered another injury and been ruled out for week 17. He just can’t stay on the field.
TE Tommy Tremble, CAR (Wk. 17: @NO): Tremble hasn’t topped 4 targets or 35 receiving yards in any game this season, and he hasn’t scored a touchdown since week 5. The Saints allow the 9th-fewest TE points per game. Tremble isn’t a streaming option. (Update: Tremble was added to the Covid list on Friday.)
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
RB Jaret Patterson, WAS (Wk. 17: vs. Phi.): You could make a case that Patterson belongs in the borderline options this week with Antonio Gibson and JD McKissic both sidelined and Philly allowing the 14th-most RB points per game, but he won’t have the job entirely to himself. Jonathan Williams and Wendell Smallwood will both mix-in a bit, and Patterson hasn’t been utilized much in the passing game, which is where Philly is most vulnerable to backs. The Eagles have allowed the 2nd-most RB receptions per game. Patterson should still handle 10-15 touches in this one, which puts him on the flex radar in deeper leagues and makes him a value in DFS contests at his current price, but I wouldn’t view him as one of the top RB streamers of the week.
RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 17: @Was.): Miles Sanders’ injury alone doesn’t make Gainwell a usable player this week, but that changes if Jordan Howard is out as well. Howard is going to be a game-time call. If he’s out, that leaves just Boston Scott and Gainwell to handle the backfield work against a middling run defense. The Eagles have had at least two backs handle 10+ touches in every game since week 8, and I don’t expect that to change here. If Howard sits, Gainwell becomes an intriguing DFS tournament option and an upside flex play in deeper leagues.
TE Tre’ McKitty, LAC (Wk. 17: vs. Den.): You’d have to be digging pretty deep in a DFS contest to be looking at McKitty, but the Chargers are down their top 2 tight ends this week with Jared Cook added to the Covid list late in the week. Stephen Anderson will likely function as the starting tight end, but the TE2 in this offense typically sees a 35%+ snap share. Denver doesn’t give up a ton of production to tight ends (allow the 4th-fewest points per game to the position), but you could do worse than McKitty if you’re looking for a bargain basement option in a showdown contest this week. He costs just $400 in the showdown slate on DraftKings.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps guide you to championship victory in your leagues. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. I know this is championship week, but I’ll be back next week with a quick look at week 18 as well for you DFS players and those with week 18 championships. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
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