Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Can you believe we’re already a month into the season? Time flies when you’re watching the Broncos in prime time every week. The first month of the season has been a messy one dominated by sloppy offensive football, injuries, and the Philadelphia Eagles. We’ve seen the ascension of several breakout rookies so far – Chris Olave, Breece Hall, Dameon Pierce, Romeo Doubs, Garrett Wilson – but there could be even more on the horizon. Several injured rookies are set to make their debuts in the next week or two. Bailey Zappe & Kenny Pickett will make their first starts this week. Tyquan Thornton and Brian Robinson Jr. are off IR and ready to take the field, and Greg Dulcich could be back next week.
The list of relevant rookies could be growing, and I’ll be here to break it down each week and help you sift through what to do with these players in your lineups. This week we’re talking more about the tight end position than usual as 4 rookies at the position had multiple catches last week. There’s plenty to discuss, so let’s get to it.
A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Any data on route participation, air yards, and other usage rates are per Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report on Pro Football Focus.
Let’s dive into week 5…
Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:
WR Chris Olave, NO (Wk. 5: vs. Sea.): Olave has been on an absolute roll in the last 3 weeks earning at least a 25% target share and 40% air yardage share in each week, and turned in finishes of WR33, WR6, and WR15 in those games. He wasn’t slowed down by Andy Dalton stepping in at QB in week 4, and with Michael Thomas ruled out for week 5 the rookie should keep operating as the clear WR1 for New Orleans. The Seahawks rank dead last in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA, and have been especially susceptible to big pass plays, something we know the Saints look for with Olave. The Seahawks have allowed at least one completion of 30+ yards each week and have given up 2 of the five longest pass plays of the season thus far. Start Olave with confidence.
WR Drake London, ATL (Wk. 5: @TB): London had a down game in week 4, falling short of 12 PPR points for the first time last Sunday, but he topped a 30% target share for the 3rd straight game and a 30% air yardage share for the 4th straight game. His fantasy day fell victim to Arthur Smith deciding to “run the piss out of the ball” in the 2nd half. Tampa Bay is a tough matchup for the rookie. The Bucs rank 3rd in pass defense DVOA and allow the 13th-fewest WR points per game. Negative game script should still be enough to get London back on track. Atlanta has trailed by more than 4 points in just one game this year, and London was targeted 12 times in that game. The Falcons are 8.5-point underdogs this week. Volume should give London a WR3 floor in this one, especially with Kyle Pitts ruled out.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:
RB Breece Hall, NYJ (Wk. 5: vs. Mia.): The switch to Zach Wilson at QB did nothing to derail the red-hot start to the season for Hall. Breece posted his 3rd-straight top-15 PPR finish and continued to establish himself as the clear RB1 in this backfield. He played 66% of the offensive snaps, handled 65% of the rushing attempts, and was in a route for 61% of Wilson’s dropbacks. The Jets threw the ball less with Wilson back – Flacco averaged 51.7 attempts per game, Wilson was at 36 in his debut – but no matter how the Jets choose to attack Hall is going to be heavily involved. The Dolphins have limited opposing running back production so far. They’ve allowed the 5th-fewest RB points per game and rank 4th in run defense DVOA, but I expect volume to keep Breece in the RB2 range this week. His usage would make him a weekly RB1 if he played in a good offense.
RB Dameon Pierce, HOU (Wk. 5: @Jax.): I don’t know that I’d be able to convince you to sit Pierce if I tried after he put up 25.9 PPR points and finished as the RB5 for the week last weekend, especially considering that he caught 6 passes in the process. The biggest knock on Pierce has been his lack of passing game usage (he totaled 4 targets in the first 3 weeks), and it appears he may be on track to overcoming that. I’d still advise a little caution before going all-in on Pierce. Rex Burkhead was still on the field on almost all the long down & distance snaps and 2-minute offense snaps in week 4, and the Texans are going to continue to be underdogs just about every week. Pierce’s 6 receptions may be a mirage, and he wasn’t very efficient with those catches (8 receiving yards). Pierce benefitted from Houston not abandoning the run when they fell behind against the Chargers, but the Chargers are MUCH easier to attack on the ground than through the air. There will be weeks where they fall behind against teams that are tougher to run against and they abandon it. The Jaguars have allowed the 8th-most RB points per game, so Pierce is still a solid option this week, but be aware that Jacksonville has allowed the 7th-fewest rushing yards and ranks 12th in run defense DVOA. I wouldn’t start Pierce over any of your true studs, but he’s certainly still a top-24 option this week.
WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 5: vs. Mia.): On the surface, Wilson’s week 4 stat line was pretty disappointing. Just 2 catches for 41 yards on 6 targets. Those were season lows across the board, and they coincided with the return of starting QB Zach Wilson. If you’ve been starting Garrett Wilson all year, you’re probably pretty concerned that Zach Wilson could be a problem for him, but the underlying numbers give me reasons for optimism. Week 4 was the first time all season that Wilson had a higher route participation rate than Corey Davis, and his 6 targets tied for the team lead. Week 4 was also the first time this year the Jets held a lead at any point prior to the last 30 seconds of a game. The lower passing volume wasn’t just because of the QB change. It was because the game script was more positive. Those bigger pass volume games will still happen with Zach at QB. Zach’s inefficiency last week wasn’t ideal, but I’d expect improvement there as well as he gets more comfortable. For this week’s matchup, the Dolphins rank 31st in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 5th-most WR points per game, and the Jets are 3.5-point underdogs. The offense should be throwing, and Garrett Wilson has WR2 upside and has a 6-target floor.
WR Romeo Doubs, GB (Wk. 5: vs. NYG): After back-to-back weeks of a 95% route participation rate, I’m ready to declare Doubs at least the WR2 on this football team. He’s earned 8 targets and found the end zone in each of those two games as well, but he also fumbled in each game and dropped what would’ve been a game-winning TD late in regulation last weekend. The Packers still eventually won the game. I wouldn’t get too hung up on the miscues after Green Bay didn’t bench him after them. This offense still runs through the running backs, but Doubs should continue to see at least 6-8 weekly targets while Sammy Watkins is on IR, and probably beyond that. The Giants have allowed the 2nd-fewest WR points per game, but they rank just 23rd in pass defense DVOA. The Packers should have success throwing the ball, and Doubs is a solid WR3 option again this week.
WR George Pickens, PIT (Wk. 5: @Buf.): Pickens may be the biggest beneficiary of the Steelers QB switch from Mitch Trubisky to Kenny Pickett. Pickens has been a full-time player all year, but he and Trubisky had struggled to forge much of a connection. The targets were finally coming around in weeks 3 & 4, but the pair connected just 5 times for 70 yards on 11 targets in those 2 games, with 3 of those catches going for 5 yards or fewer. Enter Kenny Pickett in the second half Sunday. Pickett delivered the exact same target share to Pickens that Trubisky did in that game (4 targets on 13 pass attempts), but all 4 of Pickett’s attempts were connections. They totaled 71 yards, and only 1 of the 4 completions went for fewer than 10 yards. Pickett could be the QB that unlocks Pickens. Diontae Johnson is still the #1 receiver here, and the Bills allow the 5th-fewest WR points per game, but I think there is serious upside for the rookie on Sunday. The Bills are missing safety Jordan Poyer and cornerback Christian Benford for this game, and their two perimeter CB starters will be rookie Kaiir Elam and 2nd-year pro Dane Jackson. Neither player represents a matchup that you should be scared of. Pickens has a low floor, but his upside makes him a viable WR3/4 option for this game. At the very least, he shouldn’t be available on your league’s waiver wire.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:
RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL (Wk. 5: @TB): Falcons’ starting RB Cordarrelle Patterson was placed on IR this week, and Allgeier is the next man up in this backfield, but this is a brutal matchup and Allgeier isn’t the only other back on this team. The Bucs have allowed the 3rd-fewest RB points per game this season, and only CEH has scored 7+ fantasy points against them at the position on the year. Allgeier carried 10 times last week with C-Patt missing most of the 2nd half, and Caleb Huntley matched those 10 carries in that game. Avery Williams has also had a role on passing downs, and Damien Williams could return from IR in the next couple weeks. That’s a lot of names that could be involved in this offense. This likely remains enough of a committee in Cordarrelle’s absence that Allgeier should only be trusted in plus matchups, and this week’s matchup is not a good one.
RB Rachaad White, TB (Wk. 5: vs. Atl.): White set season-highs in snap share and targets in week 4 as the Bucs played from behind all night against the Chiefs last Sunday. It’s an open question whether that’s a sign of things to come or was simply a matter of game flow. If his role is indeed growing, the Falcons represent a great matchup since they rank 26th in run defense DVOA, but White’s easiest path to production is through receiving work, and Atlanta does a good job of limiting that. The Falcons have allowed the 8th-fewest receptions and 5th-fewest receiving yards to opposing running backs. For White to have a productive game in week 5, he’s going to need garbage time carries. That’s possible with the Bucs favored by 10 points, but it’s always hard to bank on that for a fantasy lineup.
RB Isiah Pacheco, KC (Wk. 5: vs. LV): Through the season’s first 4 weeks, we’ve seen Pacheco reach 11 carries and 60+ rushing yards twice now, but both of those were games where the Chiefs played from comfortably ahead all day. Only 8 of Pacheco’s 28 carries for the season have come in situations where Kansas City wasn’t ahead by double-digits. Of course, there’s a reasonable chance the Chiefs spend considerable time this week ahead by multiple scores. They’re 7-point favorites against the Raiders. Your confidence in whether Pacheco sees 10+ touches should be based on your confidence that KC plays from ahead. Even if he gets that kind of workload, 10-12 carries against a middling run defense like the Raiders (16th in run defense DVOA) makes him just a fringe RB3 at best. If you’re in leagues that count return yardage, you may be excited by Pacheco’s 90+ kick return yards each of the last two weeks, but more than 70% of kickoffs by Raiders’ kicker Daniel Carlson this season have resulted in touchbacks.
RB Brian Robinson Jr., WAS (Wk. 5: vs. Ten.): Robinson is in line to return in week 5 after being shot twice in the preseason. He was slated to be the starter before landing on the non-football injury list, and he should immediately be part of the running back rotation, but it remains to be seen how big of a role he’ll play in his debut. It’s been reported that he’ll be on a pitch count, and the Titans are much better at defending the run than the pass. The Titans allow the 13th-fewest RB points per game and rank 8th in run defense DVOA. I’d wait and see how Robinson looks before getting him into lineups.
RB Kenneth Walker III (Wk. 5: @NO): Walker saw an uptick in usage last Sunday with Travis Homer on IR, but he’s still a distant second to Rashaad Penny on the depth chart. KW3 is yet to see 10+ touches in any game this year, and the Saints have allowed the 6th-fewest running back points per game. This isn’t a matchup where you should be hoping for production on limited touches for Walker.
WR Kyle Philips, TEN (Wk. 5: @Was.): Philips returned from injury last week but was on the field for just two offensive snaps. He could have a big opportunity on Sunday with teammate Treylon Burks sidelined by a turf toe injury. Phillips led the team with 9 targets and 66 receiving yards as the primary slot receiver in week 1 before getting hurt, and the Commanders have allowed the 2nd-most PPR points to slot receivers per Sports Info Solutions. The big question is will he go back to that same role this week with Burks out? I’m not convinced he will yet.
WR Christian Watson, GB (Wk. 5: vs. NYG): Watson made his first trip into the end zone last week on a designed run play, but his route participation rate continued to trend in the wrong direction, He was in a route for just 18% of Aaron Rodgers’ dropbacks. Green Bay has made a point to get the ball into Watson’s hands when he’s on the field, but he just isn’t getting onto the field enough to be in lineups. He hasn’t touched the ball more than 3 times in a game this season.
TE Daniel Bellinger, NYG (Wk. 5: @GB): Bellinger has some sneaky upside this week with the Giants running with a skeleton crew at wide receiver. His playing time remains too low (he’s yet to reach 50% route participation this season), but he’s seen his target per route run and overall target share increase each and every week. He’s a good bet for 5+ targets this week in London, but I wouldn’t bet on big production against a Green Bay defense that ranks 9th in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 4th-fewest tight end points per game.
Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:
QB Kenny Pickett, PIT (Wk. 5: @Buf.): The Steelers had finally seen enough of Mitch Trubisky in week 4 after the team failed to get into the red zone and scored just 6 first half points against the lowly New York Jets. They turned to Pickett for the second half, and the final stats were wild. The Rookie completed 10-of-13 passes for 120 yards and 3 interceptions, including one on his first career attempt. Every one of his passes was caught by someone, but far too many were caught by the opponent. Despite the turnovers, Pickett did have success moving the ball and tallied 2 rushing TDs and gave the Steelers a chance to win the game. Pittsburgh would be wise to let him keep playing, but the matchup could not be worse for week 5. Through 4 games the Bills have faced the following lineup of QBs - Matt Stafford, Ryan Tannehill, Tua, and Lamar Jackson – and allowed fewer fantasy points per game to them than Justin Fields & Mitch Trubisky have averaged this season. Good QBs are dicey options against this defense. A rookie making his first career start could have a nightmarish day.
QB Skylar Thompson, MIA (Wk. 5: @NYJ): Tua Tagovailoa will sit out this week with a concussion, but it’ll be Teddy Bridgewater who gets the start, not Thompson. Skylar is one injury away from getting playing time against a bad defense, but if things go as planned for Miami, Thompson won’t take a snap.
RB Trestan Ebner, CHI (Wk. 5: @Min.): Ebner continues to play a complementary role to Khalil Herbert with David Montgomery sidelined. It’s just not a big enough role for him to have fantasy relevance given how little the Bears throw the ball. Minnesota is a plus matchup for running backs, coughing up the 5th-most points per game to the position, but Ebner has yet to reach 30 scrimmage yards in a game, and anything over that mark against the Vikings should be considered a bonus.
RB Jaylen Warren, PIT (Wk. 5: @Buf.): Different week, same story for Warren. He’s purely a handcuff to Najee and doesn’t really have standalone value for now, especially against a daunting Buffalo defense in a game where the Steelers are 2-touchdown underdogs.
RB Jordan Mason, SF (Wk. 5: @Car.): Tyrion Davis-Price remains out this week, and Mason has played just 5 offensive snaps in the last two weeks. This backfield belongs to Jeff Wilson Jr. at least until TDP returns with Deebo Samuel operating as the change-of-pace back.
WR Skyy Moore, KC (Wk. 5: vs. LV): We finally saw Kansas City start to make good on promises to get Skyy Moore involved in the offense last weekend, as the rookie had his highest route participation (25%) and target total (4) of the season. Those numbers should continue to climb as the season goes on since MVS and Mecole Hardman have predictably underwhelmed, but his playing time isn’t quite to a level where you can consider him for lineups.
WR David Bell, CLE (Wk. 5: vs. LAC): The Browns still don’t throw the ball enough to support more than a couple pass catchers, and Bell remains too far down the depth chart to be one of those. He may need an injury ahead of him to have any value before Deshaun Watson returns.
WR Velus Jones Jr., CHI (Wk. 5: @Min.): Jones was active for the first time in week 4, and he played zero offensive snaps. There’s nothing here for now.
WR Jalen Tolbert, DAL (Wk. 5: @LAR): With Michael Gallup back from IR it’s an open question when Tolbert will be active for a game again. He’s been inactive for 3 of the first 4 contests, and Gallup’s return makes it even harder for the rookie to carve out a role.
WR Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG (Wk. 5: @GB): Wan’Dale is getting closer to returning to the lineup and having some sleeper value, but he’s trending toward being inactive again in week 5. The Giants desperately need WR help right now, but Robinson doesn’t look likely to deliver that help this week. He has a chance to be a PPR maven once he’s able to get back on the field.
WR Jahan Dotson, WAS (Wk. 5: vs. Ten.): If you missed the news, Dotson is expected to be out a week or two with a hamstring injury. This would be a great matchup for the rookie if he were to play, but it’s a moot point with him ruled out.
WR Treylon Burks, TEN (Wk. 5: @Was.): Like Dotson on the other side of this matchup, Burks will be sidelined for week 5 after being carted off with a turf toe injury last weekend. He was originally listed as doubtful, and was moved to IR later in the week.
TE Trey McBride, ARI (Wk. 5: vs. Phi.): McBride is worth monitoring in the coming weeks after he finally saw his first passing game action in week 4. He played a season-high 42% of the offensive snaps and pulled in 3 catches on 3 targets for 24 yards as the Cardinals used 2 tight end sets more often than they had in previous weeks. It’s a promising development, but I wouldn’t plug him into any lineups just yet. The Eagles are in the top-12 at limiting TE points and rank 2nd in pass defense DVOA. If McBride’s usage this week is similar or better to what we saw in week 4, he’s going to be a sneaky option against the Seahawks in week 6. Seattle allows the most TE points per game. Things will get dicey for his usage again after week 6 when DeAndre Hopkins returns from suspension.
TE Chig Okonkwo, TEN (Wk. 5: @Was.): Okonkwo had a surprising 3-38-1 line last weekend against the Colts after seeing just 1 target in the first 3 weeks, but don’t be fooled into thinking you can plug him into lineups if you’re desperate. Okonkwo was still in a route on fewer than 20% of Ryan Tannehill’s dropbacks in that game and was on the field for just 13 offensive snaps. Maybe that role grows in the coming weeks (especially now that Treylon Burks is on IR), but you’re just praying for a TD if you plug the rookie into any lineups this week. The Commanders have allowed just 1 tight end score in the first 4 weeks.
TEs Peyton Hendershot & Jake Ferguson, DAL (Wk. 5: @LAR): With Dalton Schultz back in action Sunday, the rookie duo combined for 21 offensive snaps and just one target in week 4. Move along.
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
QB Bailey Zappe, NE (Wk. 5: vs. Det.): Zippin’ Bailey Zappe became the first rookie QB to throw a touchdown pass this season, and he’s in line for his first career start this week with Mac Jones still battling an ankle sprain and Brian Hoyer on IR with a concussion. There is no softer landing spot he could draw for that first start than facing the Detroit Lions. The Lions have allowed the most QB fantasy points per game and rank an abysmal 28th in pass defense DVOA. Zappe’s throws look like they have less zip on them than you see from some high school QBs, but he was highly efficient at Western Kentucky last year, throwing for nearly 6,000 yards and 62 TDs in 14 games. Zappe has the upside to be a high-end QB2 this week.
RB James Cook, BUF (Wk. 5: vs. Pit.): Cook hasn’t seen the field or the ball much in the last two weeks, but that could change against the Steelers on Sunday. The Bills are two-touchdown favorites in this game, and the last time they won in a blowout Cook led the backfield with 11 touches and 53 scrimmage yards. Most of those touches came in the 4th quarter in garbage time, but that same kind of garbage time might exist in this game. Cook could see additional passing game work early on as well. Gabe Davis is playing through an ankle injury, and both slot receivers could be in week 5. Jamison Crowder broke his ankle and Isaiah McKenzie suffered a concussion last Sunday. Crowder is out indefinitely, and McKenzie is questionable. Tight end Dawson Knox has also been ruled out for this game. If McKenzie sits, there will be some receiving opportunities up for grabs, some of which could go to Cook. It’s impossible to rely on garbage time production in season-long leagues but Cook costs just $1,400 in DraftKings Showdown contests.
WR Khalil Shakir, BUF (Wk. 5: vs. Pit.): As I mentioned above with James Cook, the Bills could be missing both of their top-2 slot receivers and their tight end on Sunday against a Pittsburgh defense that has allowed the 4th-most PPR points to slot receivers this year per Sports Info Solutions. Shakir would likely be the guy who steps into the slot role if McKenzie is out. Crowder and McKenzie have averaged a combined 8.5 targets per game. Shakir has a realistic shot at 5-6 targets in this one, and there is value in that in a plus matchup with Josh Allen throwing him the ball.
WR Tyquan Thornton, NE (Wk. 5: vs. Det.): In deeper leagues there’s a chance Thornton was forgotten about after he suffered a broken collarbone in the preseason. He’s worth a stash in those leagues if he’s still available. Thornton made a speedier than expected recovery from the injury and has been activated from IR ahead of week 5. It’s hard to trust a Bill Belichick drafted wide receiver, but Thornton ran a blazing 4.28-second 40-yard dash at the combine and has serious big play upside. I’d expect him to be eased in after missing so much time, but he’s worth picking up in deeper leagues. No one beyond Jakobi Meyers has proven to be irreplaceable in this WR group.
TE Isaiah Likely, BAL (Wk. 5: vs. Cin.): Likely is coming off a zero-target game in week 4, but his playing time has remained fairly steady this season (20-26 snaps played each game) and the Ravens will be without Rashod Bateman this week. With Bateman out, Likely should be the 3rd option in the passing game behind Mark Andrews and Devin Duvernay. The Bengals are a middling TE defense (19th-most points allowed per game to TEs), but there is an opportunity for Likely to have his best game to-date as a pro.
TE Cade Otton, TB (Wk. 5: vs. Atl.): Cam Brate has been ruled out with a concussion, and Otton is in line to start in his place against the Falcons, who allow the 3rd-most TE points per game. Otton garnered 4 targets on Sunday night against the Chiefs with Brate banged up. Don’t get too carried away here. There are game script concerns that could limit overall passing volume. Tom Brady has averaged 47 passing attempts in Tampa’s two losses this season and 30.5 attempts in their wins. Otton could be in line for 4+ catches if this game stays competitive.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you pick up a W in week 5. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.
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