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Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Raise your hand if you’re tired of hearing the phrase ‘National Tight Ends’ Day’. I promise I’ll keep mentions of it to a minimum this week, but there’s no question big tight end performances were all the rage last week. 6 of the top-7 tight ends by average draft position this year matched or bested their highest fantasy point total of the year in week 8, but there was plenty of non-TE action to be excited about as well.

We DID get our showdown between Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels after Daniels was able to battle through a rib injury to be able to play, and the game didn’t disappoint. Caleb struggled for 3 quarters before righting the ship and leading a comeback that should’ve won the game, but Daniels connected on a Hail Mary that won’t be forgotten in DC or Chicago for decades. We also saw great performances by Bo Nix, Marvin Harrison Jr., Ladd McConkey, Tryone Tracy, and Keon Coleman, and hopefully we’ll be treatied to more scintillating rookie showings in week 9. Let’s not waste any more time reminiscing about last week - you’ve got new matchups to win.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

Let’s get into week 9…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

QB Jayden Daniels, WAS (Wk. 9: @ NYG): Daniels surprised me by being active last week. I really thought Dan Quinn was deploying some gamesmanship when he said last Friday that Daniels might play through his rib injury, but he wasn’t lying. Daniels made the start, and thanks to a fortuitous bounce on a Hail Mary, he finished as a top-12 QB for the 6^th time in 7 full games played this season. Interestingly enough, the one time he failed was against the Giants in week 2, but I expect a much better showing this time around. Washington wasn’t letting Daniels throw the ball downfield in his first couple of games this year, something he’s done much more regularly in recent weeks, and the Giants have allowed the 6^th-most QB rushing yards per game. Those factors are enough for me to trust Jayden as a solid QB1 once again this week

WR Malik Nabers, NYG (Wk. 9: vs. Was.): Nabers certainly would be putting up gaudier numbers if he were getting better QB play, but his production this season is nothing to scoff at. He’s now earned higher than a 30% target share in each of the last 5 games he’s played, and he earned a 50% or higher air yardage share in 4 of those games (42% in the other). He hasn’t finished lower than the PPR WR35 in any game he’s been active for this season. You already know he should be locked into your lineup. He posted a line of 10-127-1 in his first meeting with the Commanders this year, and while their secondary has been playing much better in recent weeks, Benjamin St-Juste is still a very burnable individual matchup for Nabers. Nabers is a top-10 WR play this week.

WR Brian Thomas Jr., JAX (Wk. 9: @ Phi.): Thomas left last week’s game early with a chest injury and was in a route on just 49% of the Jaguars’ passing dropbacks…and he still finished the week as a fantasy WR2. There was concern that the injury would keep Thomas out for multiple weeks, but that diagnosis changed quickly and there’s a very real chance BTJ is active this week after logging limited practices on Wednesday and Thursday. If he plays, you should find a way to get him into your lineups. He faces a Philly defense that allows the 10^th-most WR points per game, and the Jags will be playing without Christian Kirk and possibly Gabe Davis as well. Those absences likely mean an even higher target share than normal for Thomas if he’s able to suit up. He’s a solid WR2 play again this week if he’s active. Just keep in mind that the Jaguars play in the late afternoon window, so you’ll need a replacement option who plays at least that late as a backup plan in case the rookie can’t get cleared to play.

TE Brock Bowers, LV (Wk. 9: @ Cin.): Bowers posted a ho-hum stat line of 5-58 on 5 targets last week, but on National Tight Ends’ day, that performance was good enough for just a TE18 finish for the week. It’s a little troubling that Bowers earned just a 20% target share with Jakobi Meyers back in the lineup, but don’t let that cause you to waver on starting him this week. The Bengals allow the 7^th-most TE points per game, Bowers is still running a route on more than 80% of the team passing dropbacks, and there should be plenty of passing volume this week with the Raiders a 7.5-point underdog. Bowers should be locked in as a top-10 TE play as usual.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

QB Bo Nix, DEN (Wk. 9: @ Bal.): Nix put on a passing clinic against the hapless Panthers last Sunday, posting season-highs with 284 passing yards, 3 TD tosses, and a 124.2 passer rating. He also added 6+ fantasy points with his legs for the 6^th time this season. The Broncos’ rookie has quietly topped 19 fantasy points in 4 of his last 6 games and 21 points in 3 of his last 4. He’s worked his way up to the QB14 in PPG for the season. He faces the Ravens this week, and while the Ravens’ offense has been a juggernaut, their pass defense has been a sieve. Baltimore has allowed the 3^rd-most QB points per game and has given up more than 30 more passing yards per game than any other team in the league. They’ve allowed 4 of the last 6 QBs they’ve faced to throw for 330+ yards, and 5 of the last 6 to score at least 20 fantasy points. It all adds up to the improving Nix having huge upside this week. I’d treat him as a borderline top-10 QB option in week 9.

QB Caleb Williams, CHI (Wk. 9: @ Ari.): Williams’ performance last week in a plus matchup against the Commanders is one we’d like to forget. He did enough to have his team in a position to win before they gave up a stunning Hail Mary completion, but through 3 quarters of that game Caleb had completed just 4 of 14 passes for 36 yards. Maybe the nerves of playing in front of his hometown crowd against fellow top rookie QB Jayden Daniels got to him. Maybe Shane Waldron just called a terrible game. But either way, it was a rough performance prior to the comeback effort in the 4^th. Caleb gets another favorable matchup this week against the Cardinals. Arizona ranks 29^th in FTN’s pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 7^th-most QB points per game, and more importantly, they aren’t likely to pressure Caleb on nearly 40% of his dropbacks like the Commanders did last week. Arizona blitzes at the 2^nd-lowest rate in the league, and generates pressure at the 4^th-lowest rate. That extra time to throw should help Caleb have a much better performance. QB fantasy performances against the Cardinals this season have had some interesting groupings. One QB was held below 7 points against them. 3 QBs scored more than 25 points against them. The other 4 all scored in the narrow range between 14 and 16 fantasy points. QBs vs the Cardinals have typically either put up a middling fantasy score or an excellent one (and that one terrible one). It’s worth mentioning that the Cardinals gave up 25+ to the opposing QB in 2 of the 3 games where they traveled east for 1 PM EST starts. This week’s game is in the late afternoon. I’m not sure if the trend will hold, but somewhere around 16 points for Caleb wouldn’t surprise me. I think he’s a high end QB2 this week.

RB Tyrone Tracy, NYG (Wk. 9: vs. Was.): Tracy’s situation bears watching this week as he was diagnosed with a concussion on Monday night and still needs to clear the protocol, but the Giants are optimistic he’ll be able to play, and if they’re right, he should be treated as an RB2 with upside in a favorable matchup against the Commanders. Washington ranks just 24^th in run defense DVOA, and has allowed a top-24 fantasy finish to an opposing back in 7 of 8 games this season. It became clear this week that Devin Singletary wasn’t just being eased back in after his injury in week 7, he’s now the backup. The duo had equal involvement in the passing game on Monday night, but Tracy played 60% of the snaps and handled 83% of the rushing attempts. He’s now scored a TD in two of his last 3 games and topped 100 rushing yards in two of the last 4. He’s a great RB2 option as long as he’s able to clear the protocol.

WR Marvin Harrison, Jr., ARI (Wk. 9: vs. Chi.): Harrison got back on track in a big way last weekend, finishing with 6-111-1 on 7 targets in a tough matchup with the Dolphins. Harrison accounted for nearly half of Arizona’s air yards and was in a route on 97% of the team’s passing dropbacks. He gets another tough matchup this week against the Bears. Chicago allows the 9^th-fewest WR points per game and ranks 6^th in pass defense DVOA, but Marv’s usage and talent gives him weekly WR1 upside. We’ve seen his floor more often than the we have with Nabers or Brian Thomas, so he’s still in the Borderline section for now, especially in a tougher matchup like this, but he’s got the ability to earn his way back up to auto-start status. I’d treat him as a lower-end WR2 this week.

WR Ladd McConkey, LAC (Wk. 9: @ Cle.): Like Marvin Harrison Jr., McConkey finished week 8 with 6 catches for 111 yards, but McConkey did so on just 6 targets rather than 7, and he found the end zone twice rather than just once. It was easily Ladd’s best fantasy game of the season, but it was also the 3^rd time in the last 4 games that he’s finished as a WR3 or better. The Chargers have been throwing the ball more in recent weeks, and as a result McConkey has been turning the corner in fantasy. Justin Herbert was averaging just 23 pass attempts per game before the team’s week 5 bye, but he’s averaged 35 per game in the 3 games since. This week’s matchup is also a favorable one for Ladd. The Browns allow the 5^th-most WR points per game, and they play man-to-man defense at the highest rate in the league. McConkey averages a whopping 0.92 PPR points per route run against man coverage, and his counterpart this week, Cleveland slot corner Greg Newsome II, has a PFF coverage grade of just 51.2 for the season. McConkey could feast again. He’s a solid WR3 this week.

WR Xavier Worthy, KC (Wk. 9: vs. TB): Worthy has been targeted 8+ times twice this season, and both of those happened in the last 2 games since the team lost JuJu Smith-Schuster to injury. I do expect DeAndre Hopkins’ playing time will increase in the coming weeks and eventually eat into Worthy’s targets a bit, but this week’s matchup seems well set up for Worthy’s deep ball ability. The Bucs have allowed the 4^th-most completions of 20+ yards this season, and they’re tied for the 3^rd-most completions of 40+ yards allowed. There’s always going to be an element of risk with Worthy (he’s caught just 51.4% of his targets this year), but he’s finished as a PPR WR3 or better in 3 of the last 4 games, and he’s got some extra upside this week against a Tampa defense that has struggled to limit splash plays in the passing game.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB Drake Maye, NE (Wk. 9: @ Ten.): Maye left last week’s contest with a concussion, and at this point, it’s still up in the air whether or not he’ll get cleared to play this weekend. If he’s able to start, he’ll be taking on a Tennessee defense that has shown cracks in recent weeks, but still ranks 12^th in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the fewest passing yards per game this season. Only 2 of the 7 QBs the Titans have faced reached 200+ passing yards, and one of those was a bizarre outlier game against Malik Willis. The other was against Josh Allen. Maye was impressive in his two starts this year, throwing for over 500 yards and 5 TDs, and rushing for over 50 yards to boot, but betting on another big performance in a tough matchup, coming off a concussion, feels like a risky proposition to me. I’d view Maye as a low-end QB2 this week, but the upside is there for more.

QB Spencer Rattler, NO (Wk. 9: @ Car.): Derek Carr should return to the lineup in week 9, relegating Rattler back to the bench. If that doesn’t happen, Rattler could get a start against a Carolina defense that ranks 31^st in pass defense DVOA and allows the 5^th-most QB points per game. It would be a scenario where he could be a serviceable QB2 for fantasy lineups, but keep in mind that he’s been pulled for Jake Haener in each of his last 2 starts. In week 8, he was pulled while it was still a competitive game. He’s risky here, even as a QB2, if he gets the starting nod again.

RB Bucky Irving, TB (Wk. 9: @ KC): Irving was a PPR weapon in week 8, piling up 7 catches and 84 scrimmage yards as the Bucs played without their top-2 receivers for the first time this year, but the workload split with Rachaad White wasn’t much different than what we’ve been accustomed to this season. There were some positive signs – Bucky out-carried and out-targeted White against Atlanta. It was just the 2^nd time this season he’s out-carried White when both were active, and the 1^st time he’s out-targeted him, but White still played 10 more snaps and ran 12 more routes than Irving. With that sort of usage, there’s no guarantee that Irving continues to see more opportunities. It does look like the duo has at least relegated Sean Tucker to a distant RB3 role again, and it also looks like the injuries to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are going to lead to more targets for the running backs going forward. None of that makes Bucky a great play against a Chiefs’ team that allows the fewest running back points per game and ranks 2^nd in run defense DVOA. Only Bijan Robinson and Alvin Kamara have reached 12+ PPR points against Kansas City this season. Earning only half of the backfield work against a very difficult matchup, Bucky is just an RB3/flex option this week.

RB Braelon Allen, NYJ (Wk. 9: vs. Hou.): Allen had seemingly been fading away from the Jets’ offense since Todd Downing took over play calling a few weeks ago, but he was back with a vengeance in week 8, handling 43% of the team rushing attempts en route to a 12-32-1 rushing performance and a RB31 finish for the week. The issue here is that we don’t know if he’ll continue to play that much going forward, and the Texans are a much tougher matchup for RBs than the Patriots were last week. Houston has allowed the 4^th-fewest RB points per game and rank 4^th in run defense DVOA. I can’t recommend starting Braelon in that matchup when the upside case is that he’ll play 35-40% of the offensive snaps.

RB Jonathan Brooks, CAR (Wk. 9: vs. NO): Brooks is practicing in full this week and seems poised to finally make his NFL debut. He may be returning at the right time – the Panthers face a New Orleans defense that ranks dead last in run defense DVOA, and Chuba Hubbard is coming off his worst fantasy performance since week 1 and has averaged fewer than 4 yards per carry in each of the last 2 contests. Unfortunately, I still think the Panthers are going to slow play Brooks’ roll out. I expect Chuba to still see the lion’s share of the backfield work with Brooks mixing in with Miles Sanders for backup opportunities. You should definitely be monitoring Brooks’ performance this week if he’s still on your league waiver wire, but I wouldn’t consider starting him this week unless you like to live very dangerously.

WR Keon Coleman, BUF (Wk. 9: vs. Mia.): Coleman continues to be an enigma for me. He struggled to break through for much of the first 6 weeks of the season when he averaged 3.3 targets and 33 yards per game. Somehow, the team trading for Amari Cooper has triggered a Coleman breakout where he’s posted lines of 4-125 and 5-70-1 over the last two weeks on 7 targets in each game. It’s easy to say that the addition of Cooper has reduced the defensive attention paid to Coleman, but that doesn’t hold up when you realize that Cooper wasn’t on the field for any of Coleman’s week 7 targets. At any rate, the Cooper addition has clearly been good for Coleman. I wouldn’t fault you if you wanted to get him in lineups again this week, but against a Miami defense that allows the fewest WR points per game, he’s just on the wrong side of the cut line for me. I expect Amari’s playing time to continue to climb, and I think it’ll be tougher for Coleman to hit the big plays that have really carried him in the last couple weeks. Miami has allowed the 7^th-fewest completions of 20+ yards this season, and have allowed just 1 connection of 40+ yards. Four of Coleman’s nine catches in the last 2 weeks have gone for 20+ yards, and 2 of them went for 40+.

WR Jalen McMillan, TB (Wk. 9: @ KC): McMillan slotted in as the Bucs’ WR1 last weekend as expected with Chris Godwin done for the year and Mike Evans sidelined for a few weeks. Jalen was in a route on 90% of the team passing dropbacks and earned a 28% air yardage share, but he earned just 15% of the targets as the passing game flowed through the running backs and tight ends. Rachaad White, Bucky Irving, and Cade Otton combined for 50% of the teams’ total targets. McMillan finished the week with 4 catches on 7 targets and 52 scrimmage yards, and that was in a good matchup against Atlanta’s bottom-10 pass defense in a game where the Bucs threw the ball 50 times. Passing volume should be plentiful again as an 8.5-point underdog against KC, but the Chiefs allow just the 7^th-fewest WR points per game and rank 8^th in pass defense DVOA. I’d view McMillan as more of a risky WR4 than a WR3 option this week.

WR Rome Odunze, CHI (Wk. 9: @ Ari.): Odunze faces a favorable matchup this week as the Cardinals allow the 9^th-most WR points per game, and rank 29^th in pass defense DVOA. He also saw promising usage last week, earning a 30% target share and 41% air yardage share, but those positive indicators aren’t enough for me to overlook the overall lack of production from Odunze this season. He’s finished as a PPR WR3 or better just once this year. The usage last week points to good things to come for Odunze in weeks where the Bears have passing success, and they very much should have that success against the Cardinals this week, but it’s hard to recommend Odunze as anything more than an upside WR4/5 option.

WR Jalen Coker, CAR (Wk. 9: vs. NO): Coker posted his best fantasy game of the season last week (4-78-1 on 6 targets) as Bryce Young surprisingly managed to put up a respectable passing performance against the stingy Broncos’ defense. Now the Panthers have traded away Diontae Johnson and opened up more playing time for the other receivers. Everything should be looking up for Coker going forward, right? Not so fast, my friends. Adam Thielen could be on the cusp of returning, and if he does, there’s a real risk that Coker loses a LOT of playing time. Thielen’s primary role with the Panthers has been slot receiver. He’s spent over 65% of his snaps with Carolina lined up in the slot while Coker has lined up there on 71.7% of his snaps this season. You’d hope the Panthers would find a way to work around Thielen’s return and keep their exciting rookie on the field, but Xavier Legette, Jonathan Mingo, and David Moore are all more experienced on the perimeter and are likely to cut drastically into Coker’s snaps if Thielen is indeed back this week. If Thielen sits again, or you’re confident in Coker not losing snaps this week, he’s an intriguing WR3/flex option against a New Orleans defense that allows the 7^th-most WR points per game. There’s enough risk here for me that I’d recommend against plugging him in.

WR Devaughn Vele, DEN (Wk. 9: @ Bal.): Vele gets to face off with a Baltimore defense that allows the 2^nd-most WR points per game, but the Ravens play man coverage at the 11^th-highest rate in the league, and all of Vele’s production this year has come vs zone coverage. Vele has just 1 catch for 3 yards vs man coverage all season long, and his playing time has been decreasing since he returned to action a few weeks ago. His route participation rate has gone from 71% in week 6, to 58% in week 7, to 39% in week 8. His dwindling playing time, and his struggles against man coverage make this a bad week to trust Vele to find his way to a respectable PPR score.

TE Ja’Tavion Sanders, CAR (Wk. 9: vs. NO): Sanders’ positive momentum toward the TE1 ranks was derailed last week by the returns of Tommy Tremble and Bryce Young to the lineup. Sanders has undoubtedly been more successful than Tremble as a receiver this season, but the coaching staff has consistently treated Tremble as their top TE when healthy. Tremble was in a route on 51% of the Panthers’ team passing dropbacks last weekend compared to 44% for Sanders. Sanders has also struggled to put up any kind of production this year when Bryce Young is under center. He has below a 5% target share from Bryce and has totaled just 4-19 on 4 targets in Young’s 3 starts this season. The Saints are a middling TE defense, allowing the 15^th-fewest TE points per game, but you just can’t count on production here with Bryce at QB.

TE Theo Johnson, NYG (Wk. 9: vs. Was.): Johnson posted a respectable 3-35 line on 4 targets in week 8. It was his best fantasy performance of any game Malik Nabers has been active for this season. In fact, prior to week 8, Johnson had a combined total of just 3 catches for 37 yards on 8 targets in the other 5 game games Nabers played in this year. While it’s a promising sign to see Theo produce with Nabers in the lineup, it’s worth noting that 3 of the targets came in the 4^th quarter while the Giants were mounting a comeback effort, and he put up 2 catches for 28 yards on the game’s final drive. It’s possible the Giants find themselves in similar situations this week, but against a Washington defense that allows the 9^th-fewest TE points per game, I’m not going to bet on a repeat performance for Johnson here. With increased tight end production league-wide in recent weeks, even if he does post another 6–8-point performance, it’s just not that useful from your starting tight end in 12-team leagues right now.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

RB Ray Davis, BUF (Wk. 9: vs. Mia.): Davis gets a good matchup this week – Miami ranks 28^th in run defense DVOA and allows the 9^th-most RB points per game, but he’s played 25% or more of the snaps with James Cook active just once all year. The Bills have made a point to get him 5-8 touches per game (he carried 6 times for 29 yards last weekend), but he basically has to get in the end zone to return value on that kind of workload. That’s a risky bet to make when he’s seen just 1 carry inside the 5-yard line all season.

RB Blake Corum, LAR (Wk. 9: @ Sea.): Corum was on the field for just 11% of the snaps in the Rams’ upset win over the Vikings last week, finishing with just 18 yards on 5 touches. He’s the clear RB2 in this backfield, but this backfield remains a one-man show.

RB Kimani Vidal, LAC (Wk. 9 : @ Cle.): Vidal’s week 8 usage was less than optimal for his outlook going forward. The Chargers played mostly from ahead, but Vidal played his lowest snap share in 3 weeks and ceded more receiving routes to JK Dobbins than usual, which is especially alarming since the Chargers have been throwing the ball more in recent weeks. Vidal finished the game with 6 carries for 16 yards and zero targets. I expected him to see an increase in playing time with the Chargers comfortable favorites, and instead, his usage went in the other direction. I wouldn’t recommend considering him against Cleveland, who allows the 6^th-fewest RB points per game.

RB Jaylen Wright, MIA (Wk. 9: @ Buf.): Wright has been below a 10% snap share in each of the last two games with Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane both healthy. He’s been effective when he gets carries, but the carries have been sparse, and there’s no reason to expect that to change this week, barring an injury ahead of him.

RB Trey Benson, ARI (Wk. 9 : vs. Chi.): Benson has played just 8 snaps in the last two weeks, totaling 1 carry and zero targets. He’s not on the fantasy radar right now.

RB Carson Steele, KC (Wk. 9: vs. TB): After 3 straight weeks of playing exactly a 19% snap share, Steele’s playing time finally changed in week 8 - it dropped to 10%. He’s a distant 3^rd in the Kansas City backfield, scoring fewer than 5 total PPR points over the last 4 games, and at some point, Isiah Pacheco is going to return as well.

RB Audric Estime, DEN (Wk. 9: @ Bal.): I was optimistic that Estime would see at least a handful of garbage time touches last weekend against the Panthers, but Sean Payton couldn’t let me have that. The Broncos ran 19 offensive plays in the 2^nd half with a 3-touchdown lead last Sunday, and Estime logged just one touch in that span. Jaleel McLaughlin and Javonte Williams combined for 12 opportunities in those 19 plays as Payton kept his starters in. If Estime can’t get opportunities in blowout wins, it’s hard to envision a path to getting them this week, when the Broncos are 9.5-point underdogs.

RB Marshawn Lloyd, GB (Wk. 9: vs. Det.): At some point Lloyd is going to return from IR. And when that happens, he’ll have work to do before he can move ahead of Chris Brooks or Emmanuel Wilson on the depth chart here. If Lloyd’s active this week, anything more than a few snaps would be a surprise, and the Lions allow the 3^rd-fewest RB points per game.

RB Will Shipley, PHI (Wk. 9: vs. Jax.): Shipley handled the first 10 carries of his career in the last two games, and nearly scored his first career TD last Sunday had it not been called back on a hold, but it doesn’t mean you need to have Shipley on your radar. All 10 of his carries came in garbage time with the Eagles leading by 17points in the 4^th quarter.

WR Ja’Lynn Polk, NE (Wk. 9 : @ Ten.): Polk should be able to return from a week 7 concussion this week, but there’s no guarantee that he’ll play a significant number of snaps or that he’ll have Drake Maye throwing him the football as Maye recovers from a concussion of his own. Polk’s playing time was already headed in the wrong direction before he suffered the injury, with Kayshon Boutte, Demario Douglas, and Kendrick Bourne serving as the team’s top 3 wide receivers. If Maye is out, starting Polk shouldn’t even be a thought in your head as potentially the WR4 against a Tennessee defense that allows the 6^th-fewest WR points per game. Jacoby Brissett hasn’t thrown for more than 168 yards in a game this year. If Maye is able to get cleared, it adds a little bit of upside to Polk, but the matchup and the playing time will still be problems.

WR Jordan Whittington, LAR (Wk. 9: @ Sea.): I was hopeful for Whittington for the rest of the season last week when Cooper Kupp trade rumors were swirling. Now that Sean McVay has put those trade rumors to bed and Kupp and Puka Nacua are back in the lineup, you can probably drop Whittington in most standard redraft leagues. Kupp and Nacua will be locked into full-time roles while healthy, and that’ll leave Whittington to split WR3 work with Demarcus Robinson and Tutu Atwell.

WR Mason Tipton, NO (Wk. 9: @ Car.): Bub Means will likely miss a few weeks with a high ankle sprain, and Derek Carr is expected to return this week, but I’m not sure those things move the needle enough for Tipton to be a real consideration for lineups. Tipton has exceeded 15 receiving yards just once this season, and it happened in a contest where the Saints were playing without Chris Olave and threw nearly 40 times in a blowout loss. The Saints are favored by 7.5 points this week, so I’d expect the passing volume to be significantly lower (they threw 24 times in their blowout win over Carolina in week 1), and much of that volume will run through Chris Olave and Alvin Kamara. If you’re looking for a Saints’ sleeper in this matchup, I’d much rather target Taysom Hill or Jamaal Williams in the run game than Tipton in the passing game.

WR Luke McCaffrey, WAS (Wk. 9: @ NYG): McCaffrey nearly scored his first touchdown last Sunday, but was shoved out of bounds in the end zone before he could get his feet down for the score. It was the closest thing he had to a highlight as he finished the day with 1 catch for 8 yards on 2 targets. He logged his lowest route participation rate of the season and continued to split the WR3 snaps with Olamide Zaccheaus and Dyami Brown.

WR Jermaine Burton, CIN (Wk. 9 : vs. LV): Tee Higgins was a surprising inactive last week after suffering a late-week quad injury, but the injury forced Burton into extended action for the first time since week 2. He set new season-highs in route participation rate (43%) and targets (3), and he hauled in a 41-yard catch. I’d bet against a repeat this week though. The Bengals are optimistic Higgins will be back for week 9, and Burton’s best path to fantasy usefulness is the deep ball. The Raiders haven’t allowed a completion of 40+ yards all season long.

WR Malik Washington, MIA (Wk. 9: @ Buf.): With Tua back under center in week 8, Washington’s route participation rate was back down to 30%, and Tua barely even looked his way in the game, let alone throw to him. It was a positive sign that Washington still ran more routes than Odell Beckham Jr., but I doubt we see much fantasy relevance from the rookie this year unless the Dolphins fall fully out of playoff contention and try to get the young guys some opportunities.

TE Erick All, CIN (Wk. 9: vs. LV): All’s most productive weeks this season were in September when Tee Higgins was sidelined and then working his way back into form. Erick wasn’t playing massive snap shares back then, but he was being targeted when he was on the field. Unfortunately, that high target rate for All didn’t return last weekend with Higgins sidelined again. The rookie was in a route on 38% of the team’s passing dropbacks, but he was targeted just twice. The 2-32 line he finished with is similar to the type of production he was putting up in the first few weeks of the season, but 5-7 PPR points from a tight end just isn’t as useful in lineups anymore as tight end production has increased league wide. Bringing up National Tight Ends’ day was popular last weekend, and tight end scores in week 8 were the best we’ve seen all season, but it was the 3^rd time in the last 4 weeks that at least 16 tight ends scored 10+ PPR points.

TE Cade Stover, HOU (Wk. 9: @ NYJ): Stover has seen a small uptick in his playing time and usage in recent weeks as the Texans have played without Nico Collins and now Stefon Diggs. He set new season-highs in target share and PPR points last Sunday, but he totaled just 2 catches for 19 yards on 3 targets. That sort of usage probably declines when Nico Collins returns, and this week’s opponent, the Jets, allow the 8^th-fewest TE points per game.

TE Ben Sinnott, WAS (Wk. 9: @ NYG): Sinnott scored his first NFL touchdown in week 7 garbage time with Marcus Mariota in at QB, but in week 8 he was back to running a handful of target-less route. He’s still not an option in fantasy leagues.

Deep League Sleepers and Stashes:

WR Xavier Legette, CAR (Wk. 9: vs. NO): Legette is probably a bit too established to list here in the ‘Sleepers’ section of the column, but be honest…were you giving serious consideration to starting him this week with Bryce Young under center again and Adam Thielen likely returning? My guess is no, but I think you should. With Diontae Johnson gone, Legette is now the team’s top perimeter target, and the Saints, who already allow the 7^th-most WR points per game, are likely going to be playing without their top 2 perimeter cornerbacks, Marshon Lattimore and Paulson Adebo. The Saints play man-to-man coverage at the 8^th-highest rate in the league per PFF, and Legette’s 0.61 fantasy points per route run vs man coverage is far and away the best mark among the Panthers’ receivers. There’s still a lot of uncertainty here with Thielen returning, and I know we’re not ready to trust Bryce just yet, but Young was much better last week than he was prior to his benching, and I think Legette will be the biggest beneficiary if Young keeps it up this week. I’d treat him as a WR4 option and would prefer Legette over any other Carolina WR.

WR Troy Franklin, DEN (Wk. 9: @ Bal.): Like Devaughn Vele, Franklin saw his playing time go in the wrong direction last week as the Broncos heavily utilized their tight ends in the passing game. Unlike Vele, Franklin has not struggled against man-to-man coverage this season. The Ravens play man-to-man at the 11^th-highest rate in the league, and Franklin has averaged 0.73 fantasy points per route run (top-10 in the league) and earned a whopping 45.5% target rate when facing man coverage. If he’s on the field, and the other team is playing man-to-man, Bo Nix throws in his direction nearly half the time, which means he has big upside against a Ravens’ defense that allows the 2^nd-most WR points per game. This can certainly backfire if Franklin is in a route on less than 40% of the dropbacks again like he was last week, but there aren’t many guys who are rostered in as few leagues as Franklin is (he’s 12% rostered in redraft leagues on Sleeper) that have the kind of upside he does this week. If you’re scrounging the wire for a deep plug-and-play option, Franklin is your guy.

WR Adonai Mitchell, IND (Wk. 9: @ Min.): I’m not sure I can tell you with a straight face to start Mitchell this week. After all, he’s posted more than 5 PPR points just once this season, but the return of Joe Flacco to the starting lineup does make him more intriguing as a stash. I keep repeating it every week – Mitchell earns targets at a high rate when he’s on the field. He’s been targeted on at least 30% of his routes run in 6 straight games. The problem is that he’s not on the field enough, and that those targets aren’t connecting often enough. According to Dwain McFarland’s (MB Fantasy Life) Utilization Tool, just 53% of Mitchell’s targets this season have been catchable. That’s largely due to Anthony Richardson’s abysmal 55.6% on-target rate. Joe Flacco is at 71.2% on the year, and Flacco was at QB for the one game where Mitchell scored more than 5 points. With Alec Pierce making less of an impact in recent weeks, there may finally be an opening for Mitchell to start logging route participation rates above 30%, and once that happens, we’re not going to be too far off from Adonai becoming a viable fantasy WR. This week’s opponent, the Vikings, do allow the most WR points per game, so there’s some YOLO appeal for the deepest of leagues this week, but I mostly mention Mitchell as a stash for the back half of the season.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter/X (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Hopefully your teams have held together well enough through the first 7 weeks. I’m not going to spend the intro this week lamenting all of the injuries our teams are dealing with…instead I’m going to give thanks that we’re getting a random mid-season reprieve from bye weeks. All 32 teams will be in action this week, which will give everyone a lot of lineup flexibility, but it also means a lot of our rookies are going to get pushed to the wrong side of the borderline this week, especially at running back.

I was excited to lead this week’s column talking about the huge rookie QB showdown looming in Washington, but it looks like a Jayden Daniels rib injury is going to derail those plans. There’s still a lot to be excited about – Ricky Pearsall and Jalen McMillan moving into more prominent roles in their offenses, Brian Thomas Jr. continuing to ascend to auto-start status, and some unheralded running backs who could post surprising stat lines in garbage time this week. Nearly 40 percent of this week’s matchups have point spreads of 7 or more points, and there are going to be some garbage time producers if those games go according to the script.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

Let’s dive into week 8…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

QB Jayden Daniels, WAS (Wk. 8: vs. Chi.): I list Daniels here with the huge obvious caveat that it only applies if he’s able to play. The Bears have been stingy to opposing QBs, allowing the 2^nd-fewest QB points per game this year, but some of that has been due to the QBs they’ve played. Will Levis, Anthony Richardson, and the Panthers’ QBs have all been wildly inefficient this year. Matthew Stafford has struggled against a bunch of teams without Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. The other QBs the Bears have faced – CJ Stroud and Trevor Lawrence – didn’t put up huge games, but both were within 2 points of top-12 finishes for the week when facing the Bears. Daniels has been uber-efficient this year, ranking 1^st in the league in completion % and 5^th in passer rating, and he’s averaged 53 rushing yards per game. The matchup isn’t a good one, but I’d bet on him finding his way to a top-12 finish again if he’s able to get cleared to play, but that’s a big if.

WR Malik Nabers, NYG (Wk. 8: @ Pit.): Nabers didn’t blow the doors off in his return from a concussion on Sunday, but he did go right back to putting up a 30%+ target share and a whopping 56% air yardage share against the Eagles. His final stat line was uninspiring (4-41 on 8 targets), but his usage and skill is elite. He’ll likely draw shadow coverage from Joey Porter Jr. this week whenever he’s on the perimeter, which sounds daunting, but the last 3 WR1s the Steelers have faced (Michael Pittman Jr., CeeDee Lamb, and Garrett Wilson) all posted at least 5-60 against Pittsburgh. Nabers’ floor might be a touch lower than that 5-60 line given what we saw last week, but you know his ceiling is significantly higher. He should be in starting lineups again.

WR Brian Thomas, Jr., JAX (Wk. 8: vs. GB): Thomas put on a show for the London fans in week 7, putting up 5-89-1 on 5 targets, and threw in a 2-point conversion for good measure. He’s now finished as a top-10 PPR receiver in 3 of the last 4 weeks, and as a result he’s graduated to the auto-start section of the column. The usage continues to be very good for Thomas and he continues to make plays when given the chance. He’ll face a tough individual matchup against Jaire Alexander, but I trust in Thomas to provide a solid WR2 type of performance, and Thomas lines up in the slot enough that he should be able to get away from Jaire for at least some of his routes. The Packers allow the 12^th-fewest WR points per game, but have had trouble with some vertical receivers this year like AJ Brown (5-119-1), Alec Pierce (5-56-1), and Jordan Addison (3-72-1).

TE Brock Bowers, LV (Wk. 8: vs. KC): One of the easiest starting decisions you’ll have in any league is the choice to plug in Bowers as your starting tight end. Bowers has emerged as the Raiders’ true #1 receiver, putting up 30% or higher target shares in each of his last 3 games without Davante Adams around. Bowers finished each of those 3 weeks (and 5 of 7 weeks of the season) as a top-5 PPR TE, and this week he gets to face a KC defense that allows the most TE points per game. The Chiefs have allowed 3 tight ends to reach 90+ yards against them this year, and I think Bowers has a great chance to be the 4^th.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

QB Bo Nix, DEN (Wk. 8: vs. Car.): Nix has some sneaky top-10 potential this week against the miserable Panthers. The Panthers rank 31^st in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 6^th-most QB points per game, including at least 17 points to the opposing QB in 5 of their 7 games. They also just allowed the Commanders’ QBs to rush for over 80 yards last week, so Nix’s rushing floor (he’s averaging just over 6 points per game of rushing production) should be there again this week. We’ve already seen Nix post finishes this year of QB8, QB9, and QB13, and I think he can be in that range again this week. I’d prefer to start him as my QB2, but he could be a serviceable QB1 if you don’t like your starter’s matchup.

QB Caleb Williams, CHI (Wk. 8: @ Was.): Williams has taken his play to another level in the last 3-4 games, and this week gets a plus matchup against a shaky Commanders’ secondary. Caleb over his last 3 games has a completion percentage above 70%, a passer rating of 122.8, and a 7:1 TD-INT ratio. Washington has been better in recent weeks against the pass, allowing fewer than 150 passing yards in 3 of their last 4 games, but for the season, they still rank just 25^th in pass defense DVOA, and all of the passing offenses they limited have struggled throwing the ball this year (Cardinals, Panthers, Browns). I’d treat 200 passing yards and 2 TDs as close to the floor here. Like Bo Nix above, I think Caleb is a rock-solid QB2 and fringe QB1 option this week.

WR Marvin Harrison, Jr., ARI (Wk. 8: @ Mia.): It’s been an up-and-down season for Marvin Harrison this year with more downs than ups lately, but Harrison’s usage has remained solid. He was in a route on 90% of the Cardinals’ dropbacks on Monday night and earned a 25% target share and 42% air yardage share, but he ended up with just 3-21 on 6 targets. Looking back at the last 3 games, including the one he left early with a concussion, Harrison has just 5 catches in his last 15 targets. If you’ve seen the clip from Monday’s game of Harrison dropping a ball that hit him in the chest, you might assume that Harrison has been the problem, but according to MB Fantasy Life’s utilization tool, just 7 of those 15 targets have been catchable. Kyler Murray’s play has been a problem for Marv. I still think that the usage is going to lead to better performances as Marv and Kyler get on the same page, and I’d lean towards starting Marv this week, but I would understand if you didn’t feel the same as he faces Jalen Ramsey and the Dolphins. With that said, Brian Thomas Jr. (4-47-1), DK Metcalf (4-104-1) and Michael Pittman Jr. (3-63) have all fared just fine against Ramsey and the Dolphins, though Miami does allow the fewest WR points per game.

WR Ladd McConkey, LAC (Wk. 8: vs. NO): McConkey’s final stat line on Monday night was underwhelming (5 catches for 46 yards) but he logged his highest route participation rate of the season (95%) and still finished the week as the PPR WR32. This week he faces a New Orleans defense that allows the 14^th-most WR points per game, and has had some trouble slowing down slot receivers like CeeDee Lamb (4-90-1), Ray-Ray McCloud (6-62), and Chris Godwin (11-125-2). I wouldn’t put McConkey on the same level as Godwin or Lamb, but he’s certainly better than McCloud. McConkey also has fared very well against man coverage this season, earning a 34.2% target share and scoring 0.75 fantasy points per route run against that coverage, per PFF, and the Saints play man-to-man at the 8^th-highest rate in the NFL. It all adds up to Ladd being a solid bet to finish as a WR3 again this week.

WR Xavier Worthy, KC (Wk. 8: @ LV): Worthy saw his best usage of the season in week 7, and also saw his worst fantasy output since week 3 after he turned 8 targets into just 3-19. JuJu Smith-Schuster left the game early after aggravating his hamstring injury, and Worthy finished the day with a 32% target share and 56% air yardage share, but the deep passes didn’t connect. The Chiefs did trade for DeAndre Hopkins this week, so it’s only a matter of time before Hopkins is earning a large target share and cutting into Worthy’s workload, but I don’t expect the impact to be big in week 8. I’d expect Hopkins to play something similar to the 35% snap share Amari Cooper played in his Buffalo debut last weekend. The Chiefs will find packages and plays to get him on the field, but there’s no way he’ll have the whole playbook down in just a few days. That means Worthy should continue to play a big role this week, and the Raiders are a much softer defense than the San Francisco secondary that slowed him last Sunday. Vegas ranks 22^nd in pass defense DVOA, though they’re the only defense that has yet to allow a 40+ yard completion this season. Will Worthy notch the 1^st? He might, but even if he doesn’t, I like his chances of getting into the WR3 ranks this week.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB Drake Maye, NE (Wk. 8: vs. NYJ): Maye has been fun to watch in the last two weeks, as his first 2 NFL starts both ended in top-10 fantasy finishes, but I think he’s in for a bit of a rude awakening this weekend. The Jets’ pass defense looked very vulnerable against Russell Wilson and the Steelers last Sunday, but they were missing starting corners DJ Reed and Michael Carter, both of whom are practicing in full as of Thursday and should make their returns. Prior to last week’s contest, the Jets were allowing just 11 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs, and still have allowed just the 4^th-fewest points per game to QBs after getting shredded by Russ. I expect that Jets’ defense to bounce back in a big way, and would treat Maye as a low-end QB2 this week.

QB Spencer Rattler, NO (Wk. 8: @ LAC): If Rattler gets to make his 3^rd start this week, I’d probably stay away even in 2-QB formats. His 2^nd game didn’t go nearly as well as the first, as the Broncos limited the rookie to 172 passing yards and forced 2 fumbles before Rattler was pulled for Jake Haener late in a blowout. The Chargers don’t boast a top-5 pass defense like the Broncos do, but they’re a top-10 unit that has allowed just 1 QB to throw for 250+ yards, and just 1 QB to throw for 2 TDs against them. If Rattler is going to have success, he’s likely going to have to find it on the ground, but I doubt he does enough with his legs to find his way to a solid QB2 performance.

RB Bucky Irving, TB (Wk. 8: vs. Atl.): Irving’s final stat line last Monday was fine for fantasy lineups (12 touches, 77 scrimmage yards and a TD), but Todd Bowles promised a 3-headed backfield last week and he delivered. Rachaad White led the way in playing time, but RB3 Sean Tucker played nearly 20% of the snaps and saw 7 opportunities. White and Irving’s split seemed similar to what we saw before White’s injury absence in week 6 – an even split of rushing work with White playing much more on passing downs – but Tucker siphoned off a portion of the workload from each, and I don’t see him disappearing this week. We saw Bucky put up 56 scrimmage yards on 11 touches in the first meeting with Atlanta, and I think we’ll see a similar workload here. For the year, Atlanta has allowed just the 5^th-fewest RB points per game. With all 32 teams in action this week, I’d treat Bucky as a mid-range RB3 option this week.

RB Tyrone Tracy, NYG (Wk. 8: @ Pit.): Devin Singletary returned to the lineup last week for the Giants, but he didn’t put as big of a dent into Tracy’s workload as I expected. The Philadelphia Eagles’ defense, however, did put that dent into it. The Eagles jumped ahead on the scoreboard early, forcing the Giants into a pass-heavy approach, and the Eagles had Daniel Jones under fire on every dropback. New York totaled just 119 offensive yards and had 9 drives that ended in punts after 5 or fewer plays (including 5 three-and-outs). It’s impossible for any running back to get going when the offense is that inept, and this week’s matchup with Pittsburgh could be a repeat of the same. I expect the Giants will try to lean on the run game early to protect Jones from TJ Watt and the Steelers’ pass rush, but Pittsburgh won’t make it easy – they rank 3^rd in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 8^th fewest RB points per game. There’s also a chance that Singletary was being eased back in after his injury and could see his snaps increase this week. It all adds up to making Tracy a risky flex option in this one. 

RB Jaylen Wright, MIA (Wk.8: vs. Ari.): De’Von Achane returned from his concussion last weekend and Wright was limited to just a 9% snap share behind both Achane and Mostert. He made the most of his chances, rushing for 33 yards on 5 carries, and is up to 5.1 yards per carry for the season, but he isn’t going to give you much fantasy value with that workload. The Cardinals allow the 12^th-most RB points per game, but most of that damage will be done by Achane & Mostert.

RB Ray Davis, BUF (Wk. 8: @ Sea.): With James Cook back in the lineup last weekend, Davis was limited to just a 22% snap share, the exact same share as fellow backup Ty Johnson. Davis did post a respectable week with 47 scrimmage yards and a TD, but that’s pretty much the ceiling here unless the Bills win in a romp. If you start Davis in fantasy lineups this week, you’re banking on a TD to get him to an acceptable final stat line.  

WR Jalen McMillan, TB (Wk. 8: vs. Atl.): McMillan has a great opportunity at a breakout game this week as he could be serving as the Bucs’ de facto WR1 against a Falcons’ defense that allows the 11^th-most WR points per game. Chris Godwin and Mike Evans will be on the shelf for several weeks (Godwin for the year), and McMillan was operating as the WR3 before those injuries. It’s still unclear though if he’ll be used mostly on the perimeter, as he has been so far, or if he’ll be moved into Chris Godwin’s slot role – he was primarily a slot receiver in college. Atlanta slot corner Dee Alford is the weakest link in their secondary. It all shapes up to a situation where McMillan has a good shot at being a quality start this week, but the WR pecking order in the wake of Monday night’s injuries still has a lot of uncertainty, and McMillan has totaled just 6-74-1 on 123 routes run this season. It’s a big leap of faith to plug him in as a starter given his production so far. I’d treat him as a risky WR4 with big upside this week.

WR Ricky Pearsall, SF (Wk. 8: vs. Dal.): Pearsall was on the field a ton in his NFL debut with the 49ers extremely short-handed at WR (he was in a route on 84% of the team dropbacks), but those snaps didn’t add up to big production as he ended up with 3 catches for 21 yards on 5 targets. Brandon Aiyuk is done for the year, and as of Thursday, it looks like Jauan Jennings will be out again this week, but Deebo and George Kittle should be able to play. I expect the 49ers to pummel the Cowboys on the ground – Dallas ranks 29^th in run defense DVOA and allows over 140 rushing yards per game – and for them to run the passing game through Deebo and Kittle when they do throw. I think you can probably count on something like 5-6 targets for Pearsall as the team WR2 this week, but that makes him just a WR4 option in fantasy lineups in my opinion.

WR Keon Coleman, BUF (Wk. 8: @ Sea.): Coleman’s final stat line looked great last weekend if he was in your lineup. He caught 4 of 7 targets for 125 yards, easily his best yardage game of the season and the first time he’s caught for at least 60 yards in a game. If you look closer, you’ll notice that half of his production (2 catches and 67 yards) came on the Bills’ final drive with a 3-possession lead in the final 5 minutes. Those points still count the same in fantasy football, but I wouldn’t expect the Bills to be throwing deep in games that are already decided very often going forward. The true worry I have for Coleman is that Amari Cooper played just 35% of the snaps in this game. Cooper’s role and playing time are going to grow quickly, and that’ll leave less work for Coleman, who is already averaging just 4 targets per game. He’s going to be a boom-or-bust option going forward, including this week against a Seattle team that allows 13^th-fewest WR points per game. He’s an upside WR4 if you want to roll the dice on him booming again this week.

WR Rome Odunze, CHI (Wk. 8: @ Was.): Through 6 games, Odunze has reached double-digit PPR points just once, and continues to struggle to stand out in this crowded passing attack. This matchup with Washington is one I would’ve circled for Odunze a few weeks ago as a great spot for a big game, but the Commanders have been better against the pass in recent weeks, allowing fewer than 150 passing yards in 3 of their last 4 games (albeit against bad passing offenses – ARI, CLE, and CAR). This is still a matchup where good receivers can excel, but the Bears’ coaches just haven’t made Odunze a priority in this offense. I’d expect him to see something like 4-5 targets, and would count it as a win if he hits 10+ PPR points for the 2^nd time this season.

WR Troy Franklin, DEN (Wk. 8: vs. Car.): Franklin isn’t quite playing a full-time role yet (he was in a route on 67% of the team dropbacks last Thursday, but he’s moved into fantasy consideration after posting back-to-back double-digit PPR performances. He tallied 5 catches for 50 yards last week and gets to face a hapless Panthers’ defense this week. My concern for Franklin is that he has been much better against man coverage than zone, and the Panthers play man coverage at the 5^th-lowest rate in the NFL. Per PFF, Franklin has been targeted on 42.1% of his routes run vs. man coverage and put up 0.76 fantasy points per route run on those plays. Those numbers are just 18.5% and 0.22 vs. zone. When you’re only playing two-thirds of the snaps, those little nuances could be the difference between a WR50 finish and a WR30 finish for the week. I’d probably look elsewhere rather than count on another 10-point day from Franklin against the zone-heavy Panthers.

WRs Xavier Legette & Jalen Coker, CAR (Wk. 8: @ Den.): Andy Dalton sprained his thumb this week in a car accident, and now it’ll be Bryce Young under center for the Panthers against a Denver defense that ranks 4^th in pass defense DVOA. My advice is to pretty much stay away from all Panthers’ skill players this week aside from Chuba Hubbard. Young has been the worst passer in the NFL this season, with a passer rating below 50, and fewer than 5 yards per pass attempt, and the Broncos are about as bad of a matchup as he could’ve drawn here. If you got more than 5 PPR points out of either of these receivers this week, it would be a win.

WR Ja’Lynn Polk, NE (Wk. 8 : vs. NYJ) : I mentioned in the week 7 Rookie Report that Patriots HC Jerod Mayo called out Polk last week, and Polk responded Sunday by logging zero catches on 3 targets. Pop Douglas battled an illness and barely played, and Polk still was limited to a 52% route participation rate. His playing time has continued to dwindle, with that route rate dropping from 97% to 69% to 52% over the last 3 games while Kendrick Bourne (27% -> 52% -> 62%) and Kayshon Boutte (23% -> 59% -> 76% -> 88%) have seen their playing time grow in recent weeks. I’d expect Douglas to be over his illness by Sunday, and that likely means Polk will be serving as the team’s WR4. The Jets’ secondary is getting healthy this week, and I don’t expect much production from Polk on what should be very limited playing time.

WRs Bub Means & Mason Tipton, NO (Wk. 8: @ LAC): With Rashid Shaheed sidelined for the rest of the season, Means and Tipton will continue as the team’s WR2 & 3 going forward, but this isn’t a good week to insert either into fantasy lineups. Spencer Rattler will likely start at QB again this week, and Chris Olave and Taysom Hill should both return to the lineup. I expect Hill’s return means the Saints will lean on the run game and limit Rattler’s chances to turn the ball over, and Olave’s return means he’ll dominate the targets in the passing game. The Chargers play at the slowest pace in the NFL, so matchups against them already have fewer total plays than an average game. Fewer total plays means fewer pass plays, and fewer targets to go around. If Derek Carr returns, you could maybe get away with starting Means if you’re desperate, but with a full slate of games this week, you shouldn’t be at that level of desperation. Tipton will likely lose more snaps to Taysom Hill than Means will.

TE Ja’Tavion Sanders, CAR (Wk. 8 : @ Den.): If you missed the blurb above about Xavier Legette and Jalen Coker, I’m advising that you stay away from all Carolina skill players except Chuba Hubbard now that we know Bryce Young will be under center. Sanders has been on a nice trajectory in recent weeks with Tommy Tremble sidelined and Andy Dalton starting – he’s set new PPR season-high point totals in 4 straight weeks, including his first top-12 positional finish of the year last weekend. I was already a little wary of Sanders this week due to the possibility of Tommy Tremble returning to the lineup. Tremble has played comfortably ahead of Sanders when healthy, and although Sanders has made a strong case in recent weeks that he should be the starter going forward, NFL coaches are usually slow to make those kinds of changes. Dave Canales will likely notice that the Panthers have been much more competitive on the scoreboard with a healthy Tommy Tremble – their only win and their only loss by 10 or fewer points were in the two games where Tremble played 80% or more of the snaps. Bryce Young under center likely makes the Tremble conversation moot this week anyway. Sanders has just 4 catches for 14 yards on throws from Bryce Young this season. He’s a risky play even as a TE2 this week regardless of Tremble’s status.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

RB Braelon Allen, NYJ (Wk. 8: @ NE): Allen’s playing time has decreased in 3 straight games now since Todd Downing took over the Jets’ offensive play-calling, bottoming out at just a 9% snap share and 3 touches in week 7. The Jets are favored by a full touchdown this week, and the Patriots are an awful run defense – they rank 28^th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 3^rd-most RB points per game – but playing Allen this week is nothing more than a bet on garbage time touches. It’ll be the Breece Hall show again if it remains close, and with Drake Maye at QB for New England and the Jets’ secondary a little banged up, it might remain close.

RB Isaac Guerendo, SF (Wk. 8: vs. Dal.): Jordan Mason played in week 7 despite a questionable tag, and Guerendo played just 9% of the offensive snaps as a result. The 49ers should lean harder on the run game with their WR group in shambles due to injuries and a bout with pneumonia – the Cowboys are one of the worst run defenses in the league - but most of that work will go to Mason. Guerendo likely will play just a handful of snaps unless they run away with the game.

RB Carson Steele, KC (Wk. 8: @ LV): Steele made it through a game without fumbling for the first time in a few weeks last Sunday, but he played just a 19% snap share for the third week in a row. His run as a useful fantasy back this season is likely over. KC is favored by 10 points this week, so there’s a chance Steele gets a few carries in garbage time if this game is a blowout, but those carries are just as likely to go to Samaje Perine as they are to go to Steele. He’s a garbage time TD dart throw if you’re desperate this week.

RB Jonathan Brooks, CAR (Wk. 8: @ Den.): Brooks did not make his anticipated return in week 7, so we get to wait and hope he makes his NFL debut in week 8 instead. Chuba Hubbard has been playing more than 80% of the snaps in the last two weeks and has finished in the top-20 fantasy RBs in each of the last 5 games. As I mentioned last week, Brooks will need Chuba to get hurt or falter if he wants to take over the lead back role, and he’ll likely need a ramp-up period before he can even overtake Miles Sanders for the RB2 role.

RB Trey Benson, ARI (Wk. 8: @ Mia.): Benson continues to be an afterthought in the Cardinals’ backfield mix. He played just 7% of the snaps on Monday night and didn’t touch the ball even once. The last time he was at a 20% or higher snap share was in week 1, and he’s tallied 5 or fewer touches in 5 out of 7 games this season. There was some hope for Benson last weekend as James Conner was battling an ankle injury, but Conner wound up dominating the backfield work Monday night. This is a week where extra opportunities would be a good thing for Benson. The Dolphins rank 30^th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 6^th-most RB points per game, but I’m not confident those extra opportunities will come.

RB Blake Corum, LAR (Wk.8: vs. Min.): I noted ahead of the Rams’ week 6 bye that Corum had moved ahead of Ronnie Rivers on the depth chart to become the primary backup, but his role remains extremely limited behind Kyren Williams. Corum was on the field for just 10% of the Rams’ offensive snaps last weekend and carried 3 times for 11 yards. That limited role won’t make him a useful fantasy play this week against a Minnesota defense that ranks 1^st in run defense DVOA and allows the 9^th-fewest RB points per game.

RB Marshawn Lloyd, GB (Wk. 8: @ Jax.): Lloyd is eligible to come off IR at any time for the Packers, but it sounds unlikely that he’ll get cleared to play this week. Even if he is able to play, he’s got work to do to move back ahead of Emmanuel Wilson and Chris Brooks for the backup RB job.

WR Luke McCaffrey, WAS (Wk. 8: vs. Chi.): McCaffrey has been in a route on 40% or more of the Commanders’ dropbacks in 6 of 7 games this season, but he still hasn’t been targeted more than 3 times in any game this season. He was targeted zero times in week 7, and this week faces a Chicago defense that allows the 6^th-fewest WR points per game. You’d need something miraculous to get value out of McCaffrey in your lineups this week.

WR Jacob Cowing, SF (Wk. 8: vs. Dal.): A decimated 49ers WR corps forced Cowing into his first extended action of the season last Sunday, and he posted a solid 2-50 line that included a 41-yard catch. The 49ers entered the game without Jauan Jennings, and then lost Deebo Samuel to pneumonia and Brandon Aiyuk to a torn ACL, but despite all of those missing receivers, Cowing still ranked just 4^th in route participation rate among the rest of the team’s wideouts. Ricky Pearsall (84%), Chris Conley (73%) and Ronnie Bell (38%) all ran routes at much higher rates than Cowing (22%). The big play was nice, but Cowing is no higher than 4^th on this depth chart, and he’s lower than that if Deebo or Jennings return this week.

TE Theo Johnson, NYG (Wk. 8: @ Pit.): With Malik Nabers back on the field, Johnson went back to running wind sprints. The rookie tight end was in a route on 88% of the team’s passing dropbacks, but he was credited with zero targets after the only pass thrown in his direction resulted in a zero-yard catch that was nullified by an offensive pass interference penalty. Johnson totaled 8 targets in the two games that Nabers missed. He’s totaled 4 in the last 4 games that Nabers played. The Steelers do allow the 11^th-most TE points per game, but it’s hard to produce points if the ball doesn’t come your way.

TE Erick All, CIN (Wk. 8: vs. Phi.): All hit a 50% route participation rate on Sunday, the first time all season that he’s run more routes than Mike Gesicki, but it means nothing if he’s not being targeted. This passing game has been funneled through Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase since Higgins got back up to speed. All has earned just 5 targets on 44 routes run over the last 3 games. The increased playing time is promising, but it likely doesn’t come with increased fantasy value for now.

TE Ben Sinnott, WAS (Wk. 8: vs. Chi.): Sinnott finally earned his first NFL target last week, and on top of that, his first catch and first TD as well. He finished with 2 catches for 6 yards and a TD on 2 targets. Both targets happened while Washington was up by at least 30 points on the scoreboard. Don’t read anything into it. It’s not a significant change in his usage, and you can continue to ignore him in fantasy lineups this week in what should be a much more competitive contest for the Commanders.

Deep League Sleepers & Stashes:

RB Kimani Vidal, LAC (Wk. 8 : vs. NO): Vidal has averaged 5 touches and 35 yards per game in the two contests he’s played since Gus Edwards went on IR, and those were both against teams that rank in the top-10 in run defense DVOA. This week he gets to face a faltering Saints team that ranks 31^st in run defense DVOA and may have to start Spencer Rattler at QB again if Derek Carr can’t get cleared. The Chargers are currently 7-point favorites, but I’d expect that number to grow if Carr is ruled out. There could be ample opportunity for garbage time touches against a team that allows the 5^th-most RB points per game. I’d probably keep Vidal parked on the bench if Carr starts, but if it’s Rattler again, I’d treat Vidal as a sneaky upside RB4 option.

RB Audric Estime, DEN (Wk. 8: vs. Car.): Estime has played a very limited role since coming back from IR a couple weeks ago. He’s played just 7 snaps in the last 2 weeks, but there’s reason to think this week that could change this week – garbage time. The Broncos are hosting the hapless Panthers, who are forced to go back to Bryce Young at QB this week after Andy Dalton hurt his thumb in a car accident. Denver is favored by 10 points, and the Panthers rank dead last in run defense DVOA and allow more RB fantasy points per game than any other team. The Panthers have lost by 18 or more points in 5 of their 7 games this year (including both games Young has started). If things go according to plan, Estime could easily log double-digit touches in the 2^nd half of the game. I’d view this as more of a desperation option than anything since there’s never a guarantee that a game will go according to script, but the upside is there for a top-30 RB finish or better.

WR Devaughn Vele, DEN (Wk. 8: vs. Car.): I mentioned above that Troy Franklin has been at his best against man coverage this season, but the opposite has been true for Vele, who has done his best work against zone. Vele has been targeted on 23.3% of his routes vs. zone coverage, and has scored 0.45 fantasy points per route run against those coverages. The Panthers play man coverage at the 5^th-lowest rate in the league, so Vele should have some added upside this week. I like his chances to compile his way to 10-12 PPR points, which should make him a viable WR3/4 option against a Carolina team that ranks 31^st in pass defense DVOA.

WR Adonai Mitchell, IND (Wk. 8: @ Hou.): Mitchell has been a frustrating player in fantasy this season because the talent is apparent when he’s on the field, but he just isn’t getting on the field enough. When Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs, and Alec Pierce are all active, Mitchell is typically limited to a route participation rate somewhere south of 25%, and while Pittman and Downs didn’t practice Wednesday, they were both back Thursday and I wouldn’t hold my breath that either guy sits this week. The reason I have some interest in Mitchell this week is because this is a matchup where he could make something happen in those limited snaps. Mitchell has been targeted on a third of his routes run this year, he has an aDOT of 15.2 yards downfield, and he faces a Houston secondary that he got behind a few times in week 1 on some tantalizing near-misses. It only takes one of those near misses to turn into a connection for him to suddenly have double-digit fantasy points. Obviously, this is a low percentage bet given the playing time issues, so I probably wouldn’t plug him into lineups, but it might be worth betting a couple dollars on an anytime TD.

WR Malik Washington, MIA (Wk. 8: vs. Ari.): I wouldn’t plug Washington into any lineups this week, but it’s worth mentioning that he was in a route on 50% of the team passing dropbacks last Sunday. It was his highest mark of the season, and he played ahead of Odell Beckham Jr. in the process. Things could change for Malik this week with Tua back, and he’ll certainly have a hard time earning more than just a few opportunities per game with all of the firepower Miami has at their disposal, but he could be worth a stash in the deepest of leagues on the off chance that the 50% route participation rate last week wasn’t a fluke.

WR Jordan Whittington, LAR (Wk. 8: vs. Min.): Don’t start Whittington this week, he’s been ruled out for Thursday night’s contest with the Vikings already, but he’s an intriguing buy-low candidate as the Rams actively shop Cooper Kupp around as he returns from IR. Puka Nacua is returning as well, and he definitely isn’t getting traded, but Whittington could still serve as the team WR2 the rest of the way if Kupp is dealt. Whittington has been targeted on a solid 24% of his routes run this season, and finished as the PPR WR33 and WR16 in his last two healthy games played. Whittington’s goose egg last week, absence this week, and Kupp & Puka returns could mean an impatient manager has already dropped the rookie or will take a deeply discounted price for him. He’s worth a speculative stash or cheap trade to acquire in case Kupp gets moved.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter/X (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We are already a third of the way through the NFL season. Time flies when you’re having fun, right? The truth is a lot of us are not having fun this year dealing with what feels like a never-ending avalanche of injuries. I feel like I’m talking about this every week, but every week there have been more back-breaking injuries that have to be worked around. This week it’s Chris Olave, and Rashid Shaheed, and Marvin Harrison Jr., and Dallas Goedert, and Travis Etienne. As crushing as those injuries can be, the NFL season marches on. We don’t have time to dwell on the players we don’t have. We need to be able to pivot and move on.

The silver lining here at the Rookie Report is that all of these injuries continue to make more and more rookies relevant each week. This week’s report touches on 4 QBs, 15 RBs, 20 WRs, and 5 TEs. I’ve been doing this Rookie Report since 2012, and this may be the most rookies I’ve ever written about in one week. We’ve got a lot to get through, so let’s get down to business.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

Let’s get into week 7…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

QB Jayden Daniels, WAS (Wk. 7: vs. Car.): You already know what to do here. Daniels has scored 20+ fantasy points in all but one game this season, and he gets to face one of the worst defenses in the league this week. Carolina ranks 31^st in FTN’s pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 12^th-most QB points per game. He can’t be on your bench if you have him.

WR Malik Nabers, NYG (Wk. 7: vs. Phi.): Nabers has missed two consecutive games due to a concussion, and he’s still the WR12 in total points for the year. He’s already been cleared to return this week, and if he’s back in the lineup, he should be back in yours. Nabers had logged 3 straight top-6 PPR finishes before getting hurt, and the Eagles have allowed the 6^th-most WR points per game on the year.

TE Brock Bowers, LV (Wk. 7: @ LAR): For Bowers, the Raiders’ change at QB was a non-issue in week 6. Bowers logged his 4^th top-5 PPR finish of the season in O’Connell’s first start, and with the news that Davante Adams is now gone to New York, Bowers should be the de facto WR1 in this offense going forward. That was probably already the case, but he no longer has the return of Adams looming over him. Will there still be a down game now and then? I’m sure there will, but he’s a player who should be plugged into your lineup every week. This week he faces a Rams’ defense that has allowed the 2^nd-most TE points per game. The Rams have allowed a tight end to hit 40+ yards in 4 of their 5 games this season, and Bowers demands a higher target share than just about every other tight end they’ve faced.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

QB Drake Maye, NE (Wk. 7: @ Jax.): Maye made quite an impression in his first NFL start. We were all hopeful he’d give the Patriots’ passing game a much-needed spark, and he certainly came through. Jacoby Brissett’s season-high passing yardage mark this season was 168 yards, and he had totals of just 2 passing TDs and 49 rushing yards for the year. Maye eclipsed all of those numbers in just 1 game, throwing for 243 yards and 3 scores last Sunday, while adding 50 rushing yards to boot. I don’t expect Maye to duplicate last week’s performance every week, but the arrow for this passing game is clearly pointing up, and they get a fantastic matchup in week 7. Jacksonville ranks dead last in pass defense DVOA, and they’ve allowed each of the last 4 QBs they’ve faced to tally 23+ fantasy points. Deshaun Watson is the only QB this year to finish worse than QB9 against the Jaguars. I wouldn’t immediately rank Maye in the top-10 QBs this week, but he’s should be treated as at least a mid-range QB2.

QB Bo Nix, DEN (Wk. 7: @ NO): I’d only think about Nix in 2-QB and superflex leagues this week, but I think he’s worth consideration Thursday night in those formats. His performances so far haven’t been pretty to watch. Often the passing numbers are abysmal – he’s yet to hit 250 passing yards in a game and has averaged fewer than 4 yards per attempt twice, and the team is averaging just 18.7 points per game (8^th-lowest in the league) - but Nix keeps willing his way into decent fantasy performances. The rookie has now posted back-to-back top-10 finishes, and has only turned the ball over once in his last 4 games. He’s also averaging 6 points of rushing production per week, giving him a decent floor even when the passing numbers are bad. The matchup this week looks tough on paper. The Saints allow the 9^th-fewest QB points per game and rank 8^th in pass defense DVOA, but they’ve given up plenty of passing yards. New Orleans has allowed 290 or more passing yards in 4 of their last 5 games. If Nix can finally hit 250 and keep his solid rushing floor, he’s going to creep his way into the QB2 ranks pretty easily.

RB Tyrone Tracy, NYG (Wk. 7: vs. Phi.): Tracy’s outlook this week is once again going to be dependent on whether Devin Singletary gets cleared to return. Singletary is practicing in a limited capacity, but he did the same last week and eventually sat. If Devin sits again, Tracy should again serve as the RB1 in a matchup that’s better than you might think. The Eagles have allowed the 13^th-fewest RB points per game, but that’s largely because they haven’t let any running backs get into the end zone. Bucky Irving is the only RB to score a TD against Philly this year, but they’ve allowed the 9^th most RB rushing yards per game and 9^th-most RB receiving yards per game, and rank a paltry 29^th in run defense DVOA. This is a team that can be run on, and I expect Tracy to have success if he gets the starting nod. I’d view him as a borderline top-20 play in that scenario. If Singletary returns, I think Tracy will play a lot more than he was playing prior to the Singletary injury, and may still be able to find his way to a passable RB3 performance. He’s a good starting option if Singletary is out, and a dicey one if Singletary plays.

WR Brian Thomas, Jr., JAX (Wk. 7: vs. NE): Thomas predictably had a bit of a down week last Sunday in London against a tough Bears’ defense, but there’s no reason to overreact to one bad game. If Thomas had posted another strong outing against the Bears, he would’ve graduated to the section above, but we’ll keep him closer to the borderline for now. The rookie is still the PPR WR14 on the season and gets a much more favorable matchup this weekend (again in London). New England is a middling WR defense, allowing the 17^th-most WR points per game, but they rank just 27^th in pass defense DVOA. Thomas is likely to draw shadow coverage from Christian Gonzalez in this game, but that hasn’t been a huge hinderance to the other receivers he’s shadowed. Gonzalez has been targeted on 27% of his coverage snaps and the Patriots have allowed the 9^th-most fantasy points to perimeter WRs this season. I’m not sure I’d pencil BTJ in for his 3^rd top-10 finish in the last 4 weeks, but he should be a solid WR2 option against the Pats.

WR Marvin Harrison, Jr., ARI (Wk. 7: vs. LAC): If you’ve been starting Harrison every week this year, he’s now burned you 3 times in 6 games, but it’s hard to blame him for the concussion last weekend. There’s not much he could’ve done to give you production from the blue medical tent. In spite of the down weeks, and in spite of his tough matchup this week (the Chargers allow the 6^th-fewest WR points per game), I’m recommending you go back to the well again this week if Harrison is able to get cleared. He was practicing in a non-contact jersey as of Thursday, so there’s a good chance he’s able to suit up this week. Harrison has finished as a top-24 PPR WR in 3 of his last 4 healthy games, and he’s had a 24% or higher target share and 33% or higher air yardage share in each of them. He’s getting excellent usage that should continue this week, and it’s hard to view him as any worse than a WR3 if he’s able to play. One word of caution here – Harrison doesn’t play until Monday night and still has a questionable tag. If you’re planning to start him, make sure he’s cleared or that you have a contingency plan ready to go in case he’s not able to play. In a perfect world, you’ll have him in a flex spot and give yourself some flexibility. There are 2 Monday night games this week, so anyone on the Chargers, Cardinals, Ravens, or Bucs could be used as your contingency.

WR Xavier Legette, CAR (Wk. 7: @ Was.): This is shaping up to a week that could be Legette’s best of the season. The Panthers have been missing Diontae Johnson in practice all week and they face one of the worst secondaries in the league on Sunday in Washington. I don’t know if Diontae’s absences are truly due to the injuries or due to waiting on a trade to come together, but either way, if Johnson misses this game, Legette would serve as the de facto WR1 against a Washington defense allowing 18.3 fantasy PPG to opposing WR1s. His production hasn’t been overwhelming the last two weeks, but this is a get-right matchup. I think he’s a solid WR3 if Diontae sits. If Diontae plays, I think I’d still be fine leaving Legette in this section, but I’d move him to the bottom of it and rank him behind McConkey, Worthy, and Whittington.

WR Ladd McConkey, LAC (Wk. 7: @ Ari.): McConkey continued to get the kind of usage most receivers can only dream of last weekend, logging an 85% route participation rate and earning a 25% or better target share for the 4th time in 5 games (he was at 21% in the other game). The problem for McConkey is team passing volume. He’s emerged as Justin Herbert’s favorite target, but the Chargers rank dead last in pass attempts per game. In games where the Chargers are underdogs or face good WR matchups, McConkey will be a solid PPR WR3 play. In games where they’re favored and/or face tough matchups, he probably won’t be. This week he gets a favorable matchup. The point spread is just 2.5 points, so game script should remain somewhat neutral, and the Cardinals have allowed the 8^th-most WR points per game and rank 28^th in pass defense DVOA. The Cards have been more vulnerable on the perimeter than in the slot, but I expect McConkey’s steady weekly target share to give him a great opportunity at a WR3 performance in this one.

WR Xavier Worthy, KC (Wk. 7: @ SF): Worthy remains a boom-or-bust fantasy option, but as expected, the absence of Rashee Rice has cut down on that volatility a little bit. Worthy has now logged an 80% route participation rate or higher in each of the last 2 games, and though he hasn’t been heavily targeted, he’s still finished as a WR3 or better in each of those 2 contests. He could finally see his target share start to tick upward this week after JuJu Smith-Schuster was added to the injury report Thursday with a hamstring issue. JuJu led the Chiefs’ WRs in targets in their last game. Worthy’s limited route tree makes it tough for him to become a true target hog, but the JuJu injury is just another layer added to the rookie’s floor. The 49ers are a formidable matchup – they allow the 13^th-fewest WR points per game and rank 3^rd in pass defense DVOA, but I like Worthy’s chances to find his way to another WR3 day, and his speed always gives him a ceiling beyond that.

WR Jordan Whittington, LAR (Wk. 7: vs. LV): Whittington’s outlook could hit a snag this week if Cooper Kupp is able to return, but if Kupp remains out, I like Whittington to post a 3^rd straight solid game. In the last two games before the Rams’ bye last weekend, Whittington had earned 18 total targets and posted 12+ PPR points in each game. He’s effectively been the WR1 in the last two games for LA, and while the Raiders have allowed the 9^th-fewest WR points per game, they also rank just 24^th in pass defense DVOA. I’d treat Whittington as a stable WR3 this week if Kupp sits, albeit one without a huge ceiling. If Kupp comes back, all bets are off, as Whittington could find himself splitting snaps with Tutu Atwell rather than playing a full-time role.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB Spencer Rattler, NO (Wk. 7: vs. Den.): I believed Rattler had sneaky upside last week because he had strong weapons and a good matchup, and he put up a respectable performance in spite of Chris Olave being injured right out of the gate, finishing as the QB20 for the week with 243 passing yards and a TD. I don’t believe that same upside exists this week. The Saints will be without both Olave and Rashid Shaheed on Thursday night, and Denver is a much tougher matchup. The Broncos have held 4 of the 6 QBs they’ve faced below 200 passing yards, and they’ve held 5 of 6 below 2 total TDs and 14 fantasy points (Rattler scored 14.4 last weekend). Spencer will be hard-pressed to match what he did on Sunday. He’s a bottom-of-the-barrel option this week among starting QBs. Patrick Surtain being out for this one is a small bump for Rattler, but he’s still just a fringe QB2 at best.

RB Bucky Irving, TB (Wk. 7: vs. Bal.): There is probably no harder backfield in the NFL to figure out than the one in Tampa Bay. Irving and Rachaad White have been part of a 2-man committee all year, with Irving slowly creeping closer to an even split with the incumbent starter, but week 6 threw a big wrench into this situation. That wrench is named Sean Tucker. White was sidelined with an injury last weekend, and rather than Irving taking over a workhorse role, he split the backfield with Tucker, and Tucker made the most of his opportunity. Both Irving and Tucker finished the week as RB1s, but Tucker finished it as THE RB1 after putting up 192 scrimmage yards and 2 TDs. It appears as though White is going to return this week, and if he does, head coach Todd Bowles has said this that all 3 backs will play and he’ll take the dreaded ‘hot hand’ approach to sorting out the backfield. In this matchup, it’s possible that no one develops the hot hand against a Baltimore defense that has allowed just 45 RB rushing yards per game. The Ravens rank 4^th in run defense DVOA and have only allowed 2 backs all year to reach 10 fantasy points against them. Even if the Bucs go back to Irving and White splitting the backfield work, and Tucker fades into the background again, it’s hard to be confident in either guy posting better than an RB3 day, and that’s if they find their way into the end zone.

RB Ray Davis, BUF (Wk. 7: vs. Ten.): Davis put on a show on Monday night while James Cook was sidelined by a toe injury, leading the Bills in both rushing and receiving while finishing as the RB14 for the week. He faces a stiff test this week against a Titans’ defense that allows the 10^th-fewest RB points per game and ranks 6^th in run defense DVOA, but I would still be telling you to start him if I was convinced that he’d have the lead role to himself. James Cook practiced in full on Thursday, so I’d be very surprised if he’s inactive again. That means Davis returns to splitting the backup work with Ty Johnson. I think Davis showed enough last week that he could carve out a bigger role going forward, but not big enough to be a strong lineup option in a tough matchup like this one. If you have to start him, you’re just praying he gets a couple cracks at the goal line.

RB Jaylen Wright, MIA (Wk. 7: @ Ind.): Wright had his best game of the season in week 5 ahead of Miami’s bye last week after De’Von Achane suffered an early game concussion. Wright still played behind Raheem Mostert, logging just a 34% snap share and 34% rush attempt share in that game, but he found a lot more success than Mostert, piling up 86 rushing yards on 13 carries. Unfortunately for Wright, it appears that Achane is in line to return this week, which pushes Wright into a 3-headed backfield at best. I’m not convinced he’ll play ahead of Mostert as the RB2 (if Achane is back) despite the strong performance the last time out. If Achane isn’t able to get cleared though, Wright has some flex appeal against an Indy defense that has allowed the 2^nd-most rushing yards per game behind only the Rams.

RB Braelon Allen, NYJ (Wk. 7: @ Pit.): I was enthused for Allen last week as the Jets took on one the worst running back fantasy defenses in the league, but the Jets’ change in play caller seems to have derailed that enthusiasm. Allen played just 19% of the snaps in week 6 – his lowest snap share since week 1 – and was limited to just 3 carries and 2 targets. It’ll be hard to trust that Allen will get a big enough share of the work going forward to be a flex option until we see it happen with Todd Downing calling the plays. Keep him parked on the bench against a Pittsburgh defense allowing the 8^th-fewest RB points per game.

RB Carson Steele, KC (Wk. 7: @ SF): Steele has been limited to just a 19% snap share in each of the two games Kansas City has played since signing Kareem Hunt. Steele would’ve played more in week 4, but he lost a fumble and was sent to the bench. After the game, Andy Reid said the team still had confidence in Steele and that he ‘isn’t a fumbler.’ Then he lost another fumble in week 5, and again spent most of the game on the bench. Steele is likely coming out of the bye comfortably behind Hunt and Samaje Perine on the depth chart. He might be behind Clyde Edwards-Helaire at this point too.

WR Keon Coleman, BUF (Wk. 7: vs. Ten.): Coleman has been largely underwhelming through the season’s first 6 weeks. He came in as a 1^st round pick to a WR room with no clear leader, and he’s struggled to separate himself from the pack (and also from cornerbacks). Coleman has finished as a top-40 PPR receiver just once in his first 6 games, and this week the Bills decided to go out and trade for that WR room leader that they’ve been missing in Amari Cooper. Coleman already has just a 14% target share on the year. It’s hard to envision that drastically going up once Cooper gets integrated. This week’s opponent, the Titans, have allowed the 2^nd-fewest WR points per game, so I’d view it as a bad week to expect Coleman to get on track. I’d treat him as a WR5 this week.

WR Ja’Lynn Pok, NE (Wk. 7: @ Jax.): The first start of Drake Maye didn’t bring the boost for Polk that we were hoping for last weekend. He lost playing time to Kayshon Boutte and Kendrick Bourne (Polk saw his route participation rate drop from 97% to 69% while Boutte’s rate went up 17% and Bourne’s jumped by 25%). Polk also saw his target share go in the wrong direction. He had totaled 13 targets in weeks 4 & 5, and was down to just 3 in week 6 as Demario Douglas emerged as Maye’s go-to receiver. Polk was even called out by his head coach Jerod Mayo after the game. Mayo said Polk needs to eliminate the dropped passes, be better at blocking, and work harder…not exactly things you want to hear about your fantasy WRs. In spite of all that, Polk has a chance to bounce back against the Jaguars’ terrible secondary. Jacksonville allows the 2^nd-most WR points per game and ranks dead last in pass defense DVOA. I still think I’d be hesitant to fire him up this week given the way other receivers on the team are stepping up.

TE Ja’Tavion Sanders, CAR (Wk. 7: @ Was.): Sanders set a new season-high fantasy point total for the 3^rd straight game in week 6, but that peak game was good enough for just a TE16 finish. He tallied 5 catches for 49 yards on 7 targets. If Tommy Tremble is out again this week with the concussion he suffered in week 4, Sanders is a viable option if you’re looking for a fringe TE1. He’s playing close to a full-time role, and there’s enough passing volume for him to be a factor. The Commanders are a bad pass defense, ranking 29^th in pass defense DVOA, but they’ve been much more vulnerable to receivers than tight ends. They’ve coughed up the 12^th-fewest TE points per game. I’m still not quite ready to say you should be starting Sanders in 1-TE formats, especially in this matchup. If Tommy Tremble is able to play, Sanders shouldn’t even be considered.

TE Theo Johnson, NYG (Wk. 7: vs. Phi.): Johnson has benefitted the last two weeks from the absence of Malik Nabers, putting up stat lines of 5-48 and 3-30 without Nabers around to hog all of the targets. Nabers will return this week, which should leave Theo as an afterthought in the passing game as he was earlier in the year. Theo has shown himself to be a passable TE2 if you’re in a pinch when Nabers is out, but the matchup this week is rough even if Nabers weren’t able to return. The Eagles have allowed the 2^nd-fewest TE points per game.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

RB Jonathan Brooks, CAR (Wk. 7: @ Was.):Brooks has returned to practice this week and has a realistic chance of making his season debut on Sunday, but Chuba Hubbard has just been too good to be pushed to the bench. Hubbard finished as the PPR RB16 last weekend after posting 3 consecutive top-7 finishes in the weeks prior. Hubbard is basically an RB1 right now, and he’s going to continue to handle the bulk of the backfield work until we see some slippage. Brooks will likely be eased in at first and could eventually work his way up to a 30-40% share of the work over the next few weeks. If Hubbard gets injured or falters at any point, it could open the door to Brooks taking over the lead back role, but until that happens, Brooks’ ceiling is as the team RB2. I wouldn’t expect more than a few touches this week if Brooks is active.

RB Blake Corum, LAR (Wk. 7: vs. LV): Corum finally moved ahead of Ronnie Rivers into the Rams’ RB2 role in week 5 ahead of the bye, but it didn’t lead to significant production. Corum was on the field for just 14% of the team snaps behind Kyren Williams. He carried the ball 5 times and was targeted once, and he finished with 33 scrimmage yards on the day. Corum did get stopped at the goal line a couple of times in that contest, only to watch Kyren Williams ultimately score the TD. The climb up the depth chart is good news for Corum, but this is still Kyren’s backfield. The Raiders are a weak run defense, ranking 28^th in run defense DVOA, but it’ll likely have to be a lopsided score for the rookie back to get more than a handful of touches in this one. He’s no more than a desperation play this week.

RB Trey Benson, ARI (Wk. 7: vs. LAC): There was a chance for Benson to move up a bit this week after James Conner left last week’s contest with an ankle injury, but Conner is practicing in full as of Thursday and should be good to go Monday night. Even with Conner sitting for the majority of last weekend’s game, Benson played just 18% of the offensive snaps. The Cardinals will continue to roll with Emari Demercado in negative game scripts, making Benson an afterthought. The Cardinals are 2.5-point underdogs this week, so perhaps they keep this one close and are able to keep running, but Conner’s health means Benson probably only gets a handful of carries if they do. The Chargers have allowed the 4^th-fewest RB points per game for the season and rank 7^th in run defense DVOA.

RB Marshawn Lloyd, GB (Wk. 7: vs. Hou.): Lloyd is eligible to return from IR this week, so he may be worth a stash in deep leagues, but it’s going to take time for him to work himself back into the rotation here. Emmanuel Wilson has performed admirably as the RB2, averaging 5 yards per carry behind Josh Jacobs. Lloyd isn’t going to just be handed his spot on the depth chart upon his return.

RB Audric Estime, DEN (Wk. 7: @ NO): Estime returned from injured reserve last week, but he returned as the team’s clear RB3 and played just 2 snaps while Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin played 36 and 13, respectively. Estime can’t be started until we see that role grow.

RB Terrell Jennings, NE (Wk. 7: @ Jax.): You may not have heard of Jennings before – he’s a UDFA out of Florida A&M - but he was a part of the Patriots’ running back rotation last weekend with Rhamondre Stevenson sidelined. He played 22% of the snaps and logged 5 carries for 13 yards. Jennings essentially served as the change of pace back on early downs behind Antonio Gibson while JaMycal Hasty served that role on passing downs. If Rhamondre misses another game, I’d expect Jennings to have a similar role, but it isn’t one that’s likely to lead to fantasy goodness, even in a good matchup against the Jaguars.

RB Dylan Laube, LV (Wk. 7: @ LAR): Laube finally played his first snap of the season in week 6…and he fumbled on that one snap. It might be a while before he plays his second.

WR Luke McCaffrey, WAS (Wk. 7: vs. Car.): The return of Noah Brown in week 6 meant McCaffrey was once again relegated to the muddled WR 3/4/5 range on this team with Olamide Zaccheaus and Dyami Brown. McCaffrey still hasn’t reached 4 targets in any game this year, and he’s hit 15 or more air yards in a game just once. He needs volume to be relevant on his short targets, and that volume just isn’t there, even in a good matchup with a bad Panthers’ defense.

WR Jalen McMillan, TB (Wk. 7: vs. Bal.): McMillan returned from injury in week 6, but he did not return to his pre-injury role. Jalen logged route participation rates of 80% or higher in each of the first 3 games of the season, but that number was at 15% in week 6 as Sterling Shepard was at 83%. There’s a chance we see some of that work shift back to McMillan this week, but it’s not something I would rely on for fantasy lineups. The Ravens do allow the most WR points per game, but I’d still keep McMillan parked on the bench.

WR Ricky Pearsall, SF (Wk. 7: vs. KC): Pearsall’s practice window is officially open this week as he works his way back from an IR stint for a gunshot wound. It’s possible he could be active as soon as this week, but the top 3 receivers in this offense are so well established, it’s going to take time for the 1^st-round pick to carve out any sort of meaningful role. In the past 3 games, WRs not named Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, or Jauan Jennings have run a total of 15 routes. There is a sliver of hope here as Jennings and Deebo are both questionable this week (Deebo is practicing as of Thursday, Jennings is not). If one or both of those players sit and Pearsall is active, he could serve as a starter and have a path to a handful of targets, but there’s no guarantee he plays a large role even in that scenario.

WR Adonai Mitchell. IND (Wk. 7: vs. Mia.): Mitchell’s opportunity for a breakout game in week 6 went by the wayside when Josh Downs was able to play with a toe injury and Michael Pittman Jr. miraculously recovered from a hamstring injury that had the team considering an IR stint for him. Instead of getting a chance as the WR2 in a high-volume Joe Flacco attack, he was relegated to his usual WR4 role. Mitchell was in a route on just 28% of the team dropbacks. The ball has come his way when he’s on the field – he’s getting open consistently and has been targeted on 30% or more of his routes in 4 straight games – but he’s not playing enough for that to matter. The outlook gets even worse for him this week. Anthony Richardson returns, lowering the passing volume substantially, and he faces a Miami defense that allows the 3^rd-fewest WR points per game.

WR Roman Wilson, PIT (Wk. 7: vs. NYJ): Wilson was a healthy scratch in week 5, and was limited to just 1 route run in his NFL debut in week 6. I’d view it as a win if he’s able to get to a handful of routes run this week.

WR Jermaine Burton, CIN (Wk. 7: @ Cle.): Over the last 4 weeks, Burton has gone from running 3 routes, to 2 routes, to 1, and then was a healthy scratch last Sunday night. I don’t expect he’ll be a healthy scratch every week, but he’s a long way off of being relevant right now.

TE Erick All, CIN (Wk. 7: @ Cle.): All hit a season-high 40% route participation rate in week 6, but for the 2^nd week in a row, he was targeted on less than 15% or his routes. He had some TE2 appeal when he was racking up targets on his limited snaps, but the re-emergence of Tee Higgins seems to have deflated those target numbers. This week’s matchup isn’t a good one for tight ends anyway, as the Browns have allowed the 6^th-fewest TE points per game.

TE Ben Sinnott, WAS (Wk. 7: vs. Car.): I’m going to repeat a popular refrain I’ve had for Sinnott this season…the next target he sees will be his first. The K-State product was the second tight end off the board in the NFL draft in April, but through 6 NFL games, he’s run just 35 targetless routes.

Deep League Sleepers and Stashes:

RB Isaac Guerendo, SF (Wk. 7: vs. KC): Guerendo is an intriguing option this week if Jordan Mason’s shoulder injury keeps him sidelined. Mason is practicing in a limited capacity early in the week, but keep tabs on the injury report here. After Mason departed last Thursday, Guerendo split snaps evenly with Patrick Taylor, but it was Guerendo’s breakaway 76-yard run to help seal the game that stole the show. I’d expect him to lead the backfield if Mason can’t play. The matchup is a tough one – KC allows the fewest RB points per game and ranks 2^nd in run defense DVOA, but the 49ers are always going to lean on the run game. They’ve put up over 100 rushing yards in every game this season, including against a stingy Vikings’ defense when they were playing from behind all game. If any team can have success on the ground against KC, it’s the 49ers. If Mason plays, Guerendo is not a viable fantasy option, but he’s a reasonable flex play if Mason sits.

RB Kimani Vidal, LAC (Wk. 7: @ Ari.): Vidal finally made his debut last weekend with Gus Edwards on IR, and he made a strong first impression, finding the end zone on a 38-yard catch on a wheel route for his first career touch. His playing time was still limited overall – he played just 24% of the snaps behind JK Dobbins – but Dobbins has an extensive injury history and there’s still room for Vidal’s role to grow even without an injury. He’s worth a stash as the next man up in one of the run-heaviest offenses in the league.

WRs Troy Franklin and Devaughn Vele, DEN (Wk. 7: @ NO): The Broncos have played quite the game of musical chairs at WR behind Courtland Sutton this season, seemingly changing on a whim who plays the bulk of the snaps each week. With Josh Reynolds now on IR, Franklin and Vele each logged around a 70% route participation rate last Sunday and put up PPR totals of 11.8 and 11.6 points, respectively. For now, they look like they’ll serve as the WR2 & WR3 while Reynolds is out, but of course that’s subject to change in this offense. Both receivers took different routes to get here…Vele was heavily involved in the offense in week 1, then hurt his ribs and was kept inactive for weeks after he’d recovered before finally getting back into the mix last week. Franklin, on the other hand, was minimally involved early and has slowly worked his way into a bigger role. Both players have shown a connection with Bo Nix. Franklin was his college teammate and has been one of the players Nix looks for when he throws deep (his aDOT for the season is 16.1 yards). Meanwhile Vele has been targeted 8 and 6 times in the two games he’s played with Nix, with most of those targets coming in the short and intermediate parts of the field. Both players are lucky enough this week that they get to avoid Marshon Lattimore, and that makes both of them sneaky upside WR4s. If you’re looking for ceiling, Franklin gets the better draw against the vulnerable Paulson Adebo. Adebo has allowed the 3^rd-highest PPR points per route run against him of any starting CB playing this week (per ESPN’s WR/CB Cheat Sheet). If you’re looking for a safe PPR floor instead, Vele should be the safer bet to provide that. Both guys are in play this week against a New Orleans defense that allows the 11^th-most WR points per game. 

WR Jalen Coker, CAR (Wk. 7: @ Was.): Diontae Johnson is not practicing this week as of Thursday, and a Johnson absence would be big news for Coker. It’s worth noting that Johnson is dealing with the same injury he played through the last two weeks, so the days off may just be for maintenance, but he’s practicing less this week than he did in the last two, so something may have changed. Coker has already shown himself to be a reliable target the last couple weeks and he’s already taken over the slot WR role and pushed Jonathan Mingo to the bench. If Diontae Johnson sits, it removes a 28% target share from the offense against a Commanders team that allows the 5^th-most WR points per game and ranks 29^th in pass defense DVOA. Given the way he’s played the last couple weeks, I’d expect Coker to soak up some of those targets and should be able to find his way to a 5-50 sort of game. If you’re in a pinch in a deeper league, you could do worse than plugging in Coker if Diontae is out.

WR Bub Means & Mason Tipton, NO (Wk. 7: vs. Den.): The Saints enter their Thursday night tilt with the Broncos with both Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed already ruled out for the week, elevating Means and Tipton into more prominent roles in the target pecking order. Means entered last week’s game after the injury to Olave, and he performed admirably, putting up 5-45-1 on 8 targets. Tipton has been serving as the starting WR3 for weeks now, but it hasn’t really translated into many fantasy points. This week’s matchup isn’t a great one, as the Broncos have allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to WRs, but their star CB1 Patrick Surtain Jr. will miss this game with a concussion, softening that matchup just a bit. The Saints will start Spencer Rattler at QB once again, so the passing production could be volatile, but at the very least Means and Tipton will be on the field a lot, and we’ve seen at least one week of Rattler putting up reasonable production. If I were looking for a WR to pick here in a deep league, I’d go with Means. He’s shown a clear connection with Rattler, and will probably spend more time on the perimeter against Riley Moss and the Surtain replacement than Tipton will, but both players will have more upside than usual with Olave and Shaheed out. I’d view Means as a volatile WR4, and Tipton as a desperation dart throw.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter/X (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Hopefully the first bye week of the season didn’t treat you too poorly, but more importantly, hopefully the injury bug hasn’t been too rough on you so far. This is a season that has already been a frustrating one when it comes to injuries, and the hits keep on coming this week. Nico Collins, Michael Pittman Jr., De’Von Achane, Derek Carr, Aaron Jones, and possibly Josh Allen have all added their names to the injury report this week. Not even kickers were immune, with Jake Moody suffering an ankle injury that likely cost the 49ers their week 5 game against Arizona.

Last week I dropped the ball on the injury front by not taking Devin Singletary’s injury seriously enough. I should have done a deeper dive into Tyrone Tracy and what his outlook would’ve been without Singletary, and I’ll try to do a better job of taking all injury possibilities into account here in week 6. There are plenty of rookies who could play crucial roles in filling in for injuries and byes in your lineups, and I want to provide the most thorough advice on the rookie crop that I can.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

Let’s dive into week 6…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

QB Jayden Daniels, WAS (Wk. 6: @ Bal.): Daniels is the QB2 on the season, topping 20 fantasy points in 4 out of 5 games, and 25 points in 3 out of 5, and he gets to face a Baltimore defense that has allowed the 4^th-most QB points per game. I do think there are some reasons for caution here – the Ravens have been better against QBs at home than on the road – but in season-long leagues don’t overthink this. Daniels should be started. To expand on the home/road split, Baltimore allowed 29+ fantasy points to Dak Prescott and Joe Burrow on the road and held Josh Allen below 8 points in Baltimore. This game is in Baltimore.

WR Malik Nabers, NYG (Wk. 6: vs. Cin.): Nabers still isn’t practicing as of Thursday from the concussion he suffered two weeks ago, so obviously make sure he’s active before you start him in your lineups. We should have a better idea of how likely he is to play on Friday. A concussion is not an injury that results in a performance dip upon return, so you should feel comfortable firing up Nabers if he’s active. The Bengals have allowed the 13^th-most WR points per game this year but have been especially vulnerable to WR1s. They’ve allowed strong games to all of Rashee Rice (5-75-1), Terry McLaurin (4-100-1), Diontae Johnson (7-83-1), and Zay Flowers (7-111) in the last 4 weeks. Nabers should be able to add a strong stat line of his own to that list if he’s able to get cleared.

WR Marvin Harrison, Jr. (Wk. 6: @ GB): Harrison hasn’t been nearly as consistent of a producer as Malik Nabers, but his usage has remained rock solid over the last 4 weeks. Kyler Murray doesn’t force feed Harrison the ball to the same extent that Daniel Jones feeds Nabers, but Marv has still hit a 24% or higher target share and 33% or higher air yardage share in each of the last 4 games. This week he faces a Green Bay defense that has had a hell of a time containing perimeter receivers this season. Per ESPN’s Mike Clay, the Packers have allowed the 4^th-most fantasy points per game to perimeter receivers. Green Bay has been missing Jaire Alexander for the past two weeks and could get him back to help, but I’d only view that as a slight downgrade for Marv. I’d treat him as a high-end WR2 if Jaire is out again, and a borderline WR2/3 if Jaire plays. Either way, he should be in your lineups. Keep an eye on the weather in this game though, as it currently looks like there will be some rain and wind at Lambeau on Sunday.

TE Brock Bowers, LV (Wk. 6: vs. Pit.): Bowers got back on track last weekend with a big game against the Broncos, tallying 8-97-1 on 12 targets. He finished as the TE2 for the week and is now the TE2 for the season in PPG. He gets a less than stellar matchup against Pittsburgh this week – the Steelers have only allowed 1 TE all year to top 30 receiving yards – but we know the targets will be there for Bowers with Davante Adams out, no matter who is playing QB. He remains a top-5 TE option this week.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

QB Caleb Williams, CHI (Wk. 6: vs. Jax.): Caleb Williams has looked like he’s figuring things out in recent weeks, and his progress couldn’t have come at a better time. If you thought Williams’ breakout game last week only happened because he was facing the hapless Panthers, wait until you get a load of his opponent this week. The Jaguars rank dead last in FTN’s pass defense DVOA and have allowed the most QB points per game. They’ve given up nearly 300 passing yards and 2 TDs on average and have coughed up 23+ QB points in each of the last 3 games (vs. Josh Allen, CJ Stroud, and Joe Flacco). If Caleb’s improvements in recent weeks are for real, I think he’s got a great chance to finish as a top-12 QB this week in a great matchup.

RB Tyrone Tracy, NYG (Wk. 6: vs. Cin.): I want to clarify that I would lean toward starting Tracy this week IF Devin Singletary is out again. Singletary is logging limited practices this week and may well return, but if he sits, Tracy did enough with his opportunity last week to be the featured back again. Cincy has allowed the 12^th-most RB points per game and ranks 22^nd in run defense DVOA, so this is a favorable matchup for a back who delivered an RB18 finish in a similar matchup last weekend. I’d treat him as an RB2/3 option if Singletary is unable to suit up, and could see him getting a few extra touches beyond his normal backup workload if Singletary plays. He’s earned more work with his performance last week.

RB Ray Davis, BUF (Wk. 6: @ NYJ): Davis was limited to just 2 snaps and 1 target in week 5, but he could be in line for a much bigger workload this week with James Cook battling a foot or toe injury. Cook didn’t practice on Thursday, putting his status for this game very much in doubt. If Cook misses this one, Davis will split the backfield work with Ty Johnson, and while Johnson has seen the better usage of the pair so far, I think Davis would get the bulk of the early down work. The Jets’ defense has allowed the 8^th-fewest RB points per game, but they’ve been more vulnerable on the ground that you might think, ranking 24^th in run defense DVOA. Jordan Mason, Tony Pollard, and Javonte Williams have all had success running the ball against them, and I think Davis can as well. The Bills would be wise to lean on the ground game rather than testing New York’s stingy secondary. Davis is more of a flex play than locked-in starter (the split with Ty Johnson might not be as favorable for Davis as I expect), but he should be a solid option this week if Cook indeed can’t play.

RB Braelon Allen, NYJ (Wk. 6: vs. Buf.): Allen posted his lowest snap share since the opener in week 5 against the Vikings, and a week later the Jets have fired their head coach and changed play callers. Coincidence? You be the judge. All jokes aside, Braelon still handled 7 opportunities last week (5 carries and 2 targets), and he gets a much more favorable matchup in this one against Buffalo. The Bills rank 7^th in run defense DVOA, but they’ve also allowed the most running back points per game because they get shredded by backs in the passing game. De’Von Achane, Justice Hill, and Dare Ogunbowale each piled up 6+ catches and 55+ receiving yards against Buffalo. Unfortunately for Braelon, Breece Hall is also an effective receiver out of the backfield and has seen about twice as many targets as Allen this year, but I’ve said repeatedly this year that Allen is doing enough with his opportunities to be a quality flex play in good matchups, and this is a good matchup. Obviously, there is some risk baked in with the change in play-caller, so I wouldn’t fault you if you don’t want to plug in Braelon, but I think double-digit PPR points are a strong possibility.

WR Brian Thomas, Jr., JAX (Wk. 6: @ Chi.): Thomas is quickly approaching ‘Guys you already know you should start’ territory, but I wanted to hold him back in ‘borderline’ for at least one more week to emphasize that this is a tough matchup against the Bears. The Bears rank 2^nd in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 7^th-fewest WR points per game, and Thomas should have to tangle with exceptional corner Jaylon Johnson a fair amount. Johnson doesn’t shadow the opposing WR1, so Thomas won’t see him on every snap.  BTJ is having an exceptional rookie season this year and has been the picture of consistency. He’s finished as a top-30 WR in 4 of 5 games this season and as a top-10 WR in each of the last two. He’s also earned 8+ targets in three straight games. You should keep starting him this week, but temper expectations a little bit with the tougher matchup.

WR Rome Odunze, CHI (Wk. 6: vs. Jax.): If you scroll up just a couple players on this list to Caleb Williams, you’ll see that the Jacksonville Jaguars rank dead last in pass defense DVOA. They’ve also allowed the most WR points per game for the year. The entire secondary is a weak link, and the Bears would be wise to throw the ball often and exploit it. Odunze has been averaging close to 7 targets per game over the last 3 weeks and is in a route on close to 100% of the team passing dropbacks. If the Bears throw as much as I think they should, Odunze should see a nice workload. Hopefully they’ll get him the ball further downfield than last week, when he had just a 5.5-yard aDOT. The Jaguars have allowed a league-high 24 completions of 20+ yards this year. I know Odunze has been anything but a consistent fantasy performer, but this is a week where he should be able to find his way to a WR3/flex-worthy performance.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB Drake Maye, NE (Wk. 6: vs. Hou.): The Patriots announced this week that Maye will get his first start on Sunday, and on paper it feels like he’s being thrown into the deep end. The Texans rank 5^th in pass defense DVOA, and Maye is going to be under fire a lot. No team has allowed QB pressure at a higher rate than the Patriots this season, and the Texans’ defense generates QB pressure at the 9^th-highest rate in the league. Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson are going to have their sights set on Maye in this one. It could be a trainwreck, but there are some reasons I have a little optimism. Maye has skill as a scrambler, and the Texans have allowed 3 different scrambling QBs to run for 40+ yards against them (Josh Allen, Anthony Richardson, Caleb Williams). They’ve also allowed 3 different QBs this year to throw for multiple TDs. It won’t always be pretty this week, but if you’re in a pinch for a QB2, I’d rather try Maye over the other rookie below.

QB Bo Nix, DEN (Wk. 6: vs. LAC): Nix has proven to be a better fantasy asset than expected in recent weeks. He finished as the QB13 in week 3, and posted a season-best QB8 finish last weekend in a win over the Raiders, but he’s done his best work against soft defenses. He’s faced just two defenses all year that rank in the top-12 in pass defense DVOA (Sehawks & Jets), and in those matchups he totaled fewer than 200 passing yards and averaged less than 3 yards per passing attempt. This week he faces a Charger defense that ranks 3^rd in pass defense DVOA. Nix has been able to supplement his fantasy point totals by averaging 6 points per game worth of rushing production, but the Chargers have been especially stingy in that department. LA has faced 4 QBs who can scramble a bit – Gardner Minshew, Patrick Mahomes, Justin Fields, and Bryce Young – and allowed a total of just 29 rushing yards on 15 carries to that group. This looks like a week where Nix will probably finish outside the top-24 QBs, even with 4 byes and 2 other rookies making their debuts this week.

RB Bucky Irving, TB (Wk. 6: @ NO): Irving hit a season-high 43% snap share last week, but that’s still not quite the workload folks have been hoping for from him. Rachaad White continues to hold the bigger side of a 60/40 split with the rookie. The two backs have split the rushing work close to evenly – White has handled 20 carries in the last 2 weeks to 19 for Irving – but White owns the valuable passing downs, playing 39 long down & distance snaps this year compared to just 7 for Irving. It doesn’t help Bucky that he lost a fumble late last week when they could salt the game away and that White’s rushing efficiency has improved in the last two weeks. Of course, Irving could find his way to a useful fantasy day with his current workload, but I’m not overly confident he gets there against a New Orleans defense that allows the 12^th-fewest RB points per game and ranks 12^th in run defense DVOA.

WR Xavier Legette, CAR (Wk. 6: vs. Atl.): Legette sits right on the borderline for me this week. I wouldn’t fault you for any choice you make with him this week. He left last week’s contest with an apparent shoulder injury, but he’s been practicing in full for this week’s tilt with the Falcons. By the eye test he’s looked like he should be the Panthers’ clear WR2 while Thielen’s on IR, but his targets have been inconsistent since Andy Dalton took over. Dalton peppered him with 9 targets in week 4, but has thrown his way just 3 times on 32 routes in the other 2 games they’ve played together, leaning more towards Jonathan Mingo as the 2^nd option in those games. Atlanta is a matchup where the weakest link in their secondary has been Dee Alford in the slot, but perimeter WRs like George Pickens, DeVonta Smith, Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed have all topped 75 receiving yards against them as well. I also trust Legette to capitalize on his opportunities more than I do Mingo. The Panthers are 6.5-point underdogs and should be throwing a bunch, making Legette a viable WR4 option. I just don’t feel quite confident in him enough to say you should start him.

WR Ladd McConkey, LAC (Wk. 6: @ Den.): McConkey’s usage has been extremely encouraging in recent weeks. He logged route participation rates of 88% and 86% in the last two games and target shares of 30% and 27%. Those marks should be good enough to make most receivers an every week starting fantasy WR, but that’s not the case in the Chargers’ offense. The Chargers want to run, run, and run some more, and I think the game script and defensive matchup will let them do that this week. LA is favored by 3 points in a game with the lowest Vegas point total of the week. Denver ranks 6^th in pass defense DVOA and allows the 2^nd-fewest WR points per game, so compiling passing stats will be tougher than normal even if there is volume. McConkey in the slot will likely avoid Patrick Surtain, but the weak link the Denver secondary has been Riley Moss, not slot corner Ja’Quan McMillian. McMillian has allowed less than 0.2 PPR points per route run against him. For reference, Ladd McConkey is averaging just 21 routes run per game. I’d view him as a dicey WR4 unless you think the Chargers are going to be chasing multiple scores here.

WR Keon Coleman, BUF (Wk. 6: @ NYJ): Coleman has been on the field a healthy amount in the last two weeks, logging route participation rates just over 70% in each game, but his target share didn’t see a significant bump last week with Khalil Shakir sidelined. It remains to be seen if Shakir will return this week, but Keon still hasn’t been targeted more than 5 times in a game this season. He does boast a 15-yard aDOT for the year, so it doesn’t take more than a handful of targets for him to have a shot at a solid game, but I’m not sure I’d bet on it this week against the Jets’ stingy outside corners (Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed). The Jets rank 7^th in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 6^th-fewest WR points per game. I’d look elsewhere for a bye week fill-in WR this week.

WR Ja’Lynn Polk, NE (Wk. 6: vs. Hou.): Polk’s usage continued its upward trajectory last week, as he was in a route on a whopping 97% of the team’s passing dropbacks against Miami, and was a heel away from catching the game-winning TD. He’s now earned 13 targets in the last two games and is getting close to being a weekly WR4 option. This week is going to be an unpredictable one for the Pats’ pass-catchers as Drake Maye makes his first start and Kendrick Bourne gets himself re-integrated into the offense (Bourne ran just 10 routes in his return from the PUP list last week). The Texans have been vulnerable on deep throws this year, and Maye gives New England a better chance to exploit that than Jacoby Brissett did – the team with Brissett under center has a league-low 6 completions of 20+ yards for the year – but the Patriots have an abysmal implied Vegas point total this week of just 15.25 points. The best option here is probably to just stay away from this offense in fantasy, but I do think there is some sneaky upside. At the very least, Polk is worth a stash in case Maye proves to be the real deal.

TE Theo Johnson, NYG (Wk. 6: vs. Cin.): Johnson had his best game as a pro last weekend, turning an 80% route participation rate into 5-48 on 5 targets with Malik Nabers sidelined. He’s had a big role in the games where the Giants aren’t force feeding Nabers. He was targeted 4 times in week 1, when Nabers logged just a 19% target share, and then 5 times in week 5 with Nabers out. He totaled just 4 targets in the 3 weeks in between. His outlook for this week really sort of depends on Nabers. If Nabers plays, Johnson won’t be involved enough for you to start him. If Nabers sits, Theo is a serviceable fill-in TE if you have a bye or injury. Don’t be tricked by the fact that the Bengals have allowed the 4^th-most TE points per game. Prior to last week’s contest with Baltimore, starting tight ends were averaging just 3.2 points per game against Cincy. Charlie Kolar, Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely combined for 36.4 points last weekend in what was probably an outlier game. Don’t let that one game sway you into getting overconfident about Theo’s matchup.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

RB Jonathan Brooks, CAR (Wk. 6: vs. Atl.): It’s possible Brooks gets activated this week, but he’ll have a slow ramp up to anything resembling a full workload, and Chuba Hubbard is just playing too well to be supplanted right now. Chuba has logged 3 consecutive top-7 PPR finishes.

RB Audric Estime, DEN (Wk. 6: vs. LAC): Estime is eligible to come off IR this week, but he’ll do so as the Broncos’ RB3 now that Javonte Williams is picking up steam. The Broncos also face a Charger defense that allows the 7^th-fewest RB points per game this season. Any sort of notable performance out of Estime would be unexpected.

RB Trey Benson, ARI (Wk. 6: @ GB): Benson played zero snaps last week in the Cardinals come-from-behind win over the 49ers. I mentioned prior to the game that a trailing game script would likely favor Emari Demercado for the RB2 work over Benson, and things played out as expected there. The Cardinals are 5-point underdogs to the Packers this week, so we’ll see more of the same if things go as Vegas expects them to.

WR Luke McCaffrey, WAS (Wk. 6: @ Bal.): McCaffrey saw his route participation rate climb back up to 64% this past weekend with Noah Brown sidelined, but he finished the game with just 3 targets and 9 air yards. His role certainly grows when Brown is out, but he doesn’t get enough target volume to survive solely on short routes, and that’s all he’s getting. The Ravens have struggled against WRs, allowing the 3^rd-most points per game to the position, but most of the damage is being done by opposing WR1s – Rashee Rice, Davante Adams, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are the only WRs who have gone for 80+ yards against the Ravens, and they’ve scored 5 of the 8 WR TDs Baltimore has allowed this year. Ancillary pieces like McCaffrey just haven’t had much success against them.

WRs Devaughn Vele & Troy Franklin, DEN (Wk. 6: vs. LAC): Devaughn Vele’s absence from the lineup continues to drag on due to a rib injury. There’s no telling when he’ll return, but he hasn’t played since week 1 and hasn’t been placed on IR. At this point I think it would be a mistake to expect him to be inserted back into a starting role upon his return. Franklin, meanwhile, has served as the team’s WR4 and is yet to top a 35% route participation rate. There’s something to like with Franklin if he can get himself into more playing time – he obviously has a connection with his college QB Bo Nix and has been targeted on 11 of his 28 routes in the last 3 weeks (39.3% target rate). If he could put up numbers like that in a single game rather than over 3 games, we’d be cooking with gas. Franklin hasn’t been putting up big fantasy point totals, so you might assume those targets are all short, but his aDOT is more than 15 yards downfield. He and Nix just haven’t been connecting on the downfield targets. There’s real upside for Franklin if and when he works himself into a bigger role. Josh Reynolds is battling an injury this week, so Franklin’s outlook changes a bit if Reynolds is unable to suit up. I’d see him as a dart throw WR5 in PPR leagues if Reynolds sits.

WR Mason Tipton, NO (Wk. 6: vs. TB): Tipton was in a route on 47% of the Saints’ passing dropbacks in week 5, and he earned a season-high 4 targets, including a couple of deep shots, but he finished with just 1 catch for 2 yards. His role is already low in the target pecking order here, and the switch to Spencer Rattler at QB this week makes a breakout game even less likely.

WR Jermaine Burton, CIN (Wk. 6: @ NYG): In the last 3 ballgames, Burton has run 3 routes, then 2 routes, then 1 route, and logged zero targets in each game. There’s nothing to see here.

WR Johnny Wilson, PHI (Wk. 6: vs. Cle.): Wilson was heavily involved in the Eagles’ offense in week 4 ahead of their bye, logging a 49% route participation rate against the Bucs. That usage came with both AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith sidelined by injury, and both are expected to return this week, relegating Wilson back to the bench.

WR Roman Wilson, PIT (Wk. 6: @ LV): Wilson was finally off the Steelers’ injury report in week 5, but he still found himself on the inactive list as a healthy scratch on Sunday night. It looks like he has a longer road than expected to work his way into the WR rotation in Pittsburgh.

TE Ja’Tavion Sanders, CAR (Wk. 6: vs. Atl.): For the second straight week, Ja’Tavion is coming off his best fantasy performance of the season. For the second straight week, that season-best performance was not good enough for a top-30 PPR finish. Sanders was forced into action due to a nasty concussion suffered by Tommy Tremble, one that I expect will keep him sidelined again this week, but Sanders turned 31 routes into just 3 catches for 13 yards on 5 targets. He’ll serve as the starting tight end this week against an Atlanta defense that has allowed the 12^th-most TE points per game, but that ranking is deceptive and Ja’Tavion’s production has been poor even when he’s had opportunities. The Falcons’ points allowed to tight ends were inflated by two rushing scores by Taysom Hill earlier this season. No other TE to face Atlanta has reached 6 fantasy points against them (half-PPR), and they’ve faced Travis Kelce, Dallas Goedert, Cade Otton, and Pat Freiermuth this season. It wouldn’t shock me if Sanders found his way to a top-20 finish this week with his full-time role, but a top-12 finish would.

TE Ben Sinnott, WAS (Wk. 6: @ Bal.): Sinnott ran more routes that John Bates for the first time all season in week 5, but that still amounted to just a 19% route participation rate, and he still hasn’t seen his first target of the season.

Rookies on byes in week 6: RB Blake Corum, LAR, RB Jaylen Wright, MIA, RB Carson Steele, KC, WR Xavier Worthy, KC, WR Jordan Whittington, LAR

Deep League Sleepers and Stashes:

QB Spencer Rattler, NO (Wk. 6: vs. TB): Derek Carr left Monday night’s game against the Chiefs with an oblique strain that should sideline him for a couple weeks, and while it was Jake Haener who replaced him in that game, the Saints have announced that it’ll be Spencer Rattler who will make the start in week 6. Rattler is a kid who was an elite recruit in college with a ton of arm talent, but he never seemed to put all of the pieces together across 4 seasons as a college starter. He gets a favorable situation for his first pro opportunity. He’ll practice as the starter all week, he has strong weapons at his disposal in Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, and the Bucs are a favorable matchup for QBs. Tampa has allowed the 2^nd-most QB points per game this season. They’ve been cooked on the ground by Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix, and Jalen Hurts, and they coughed up 300 passing yards to Jared Goff and 500 to Kirk Cousins. Rattler isn’t much of a scrambler, so he’ll do the bulk of his work throwing the ball. It’s worth noting that outside of Kirk Cousins’ 4-TD bonanza last week, the Bucs have allowed just 1 passing TD the rest of the season. Rattler is a very low floor option, but there’s a chance he turns in a serviceable QB2 performance if you’re in a pinch.

RB Kimani Vidal, LAC (Wk. 6: @ Den.): Gus Edwards is battling through an ankle injury that kept him out of practice Wednesday. If he were to miss this game, Vidal will almost certainly be active for the first time this year. Hassan Haskins has served as the RB3 in this offense so far, but that’s likely because of his prowess as a special teamer and Jim Harbaugh’s comfort level with him from their time together at Michigan. I’d expect Vidal to leap-frog him into the RB2 role this week if Gus sits. That still wouldn’t make Vidal start-able this week. He’d likely be in line for something like a 20-25% snap share against a Denver defense that ranks 6^th in run defense DVOA. But if he impresses on limited touches, he has a chance to earn a bigger role going forward. Gus Edwards is a very assignment-sound, solid backup running back, but he doesn’t have the juice that Vidal does. Vidal’s performance and usage should be monitored this week, and he may be worth a stash in dynasty leagues if you’re lucky enough that he’s still available (he’s available in 21% of dynasty leagues on Sleeper).

RB Jaylen Wright, MIA (Wk. 6: BYE): Wright is on a bye this week, but his performance in week 5 is one the Dolphins are likely to take note of. The rookie showed more juice than Raheem Mostert after the starter De’Von Achane left with a concussion, rushing for 83 yards on 13 carries, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him move ahead of Mostert on the depth chart in the near future. Achane should be able to return after the team bye this week, but if he can’t, Wright could serve as the RB1 against a burnable Colts’ defense in week 7. Even if Achane returns, Wright will carry a ton of upside in the event of another Achane or Mostert injury later in the season, especially with Tua looking like he’ll return from IR as soon as he’s eligible in week 8.

WR Adonai Mitchell, IND (Wk. 6: @ Ten.): It was revealed this week that Michael Pittman Jr. suffered a hamstring injury severe enough that the team is considering putting him on IR, and as of Thursday Josh Downs isn’t practicing due to a toe injury. Adonai Mitchell may suddenly find himself as the Colts’ WR2 this week in Nashville. I’m sure Ashton Dulin will also play a bigger role if Downs is out, but Mitchell would also see the most playing time he has all year. I do wish this had happened with a better matchup on deck though, and for Mitchell’s sake, I kind of wish Joe Flacco were still starting. Flacco targeted Mitchell on 7 of his 12 routes last week. This week’s opponent, the Titans, have allowed the fewest WR points per game and rank 9^th in pass defense DVOA. They’ve also don’t get hurt deep – they’ve allowed the fewest completions of 20+ yards this year and have allowed zero completions of 40+. The Colts offense has thrived on deep shots to Alec Pierce, and they’ve looked for Mitchell deep often as well, but those opportunities might not be there against the Titans. The matchup puts a damper on the outlook here, but if Downs is out, anything short of 5-6 targets would be surprising given how thin the WR room is this week. Mitchell is still a boom-or-bust WR4/5 option, but there should be a floor to keep a bust week from killing you.

WR Jalen Coker, CAR (Wk. 6: vs. Atl.): This may prove to be a moot point, but Coker is worth consideration until we know for sure that Legette is going to play. Xavier is practicing in full to start the week, so he likely avoided the AC joint injury the team was afraid of last weekend, but it’s worth monitoring. Coker impressed when forced into an expanded role, pulling in 4 passes for 68 yards primarily from the slot. If Legette is healthy, Coker may have still done enough to steal some slot work from Jonathan Mingo going forward, just not enough that he’s a worthwhile start this week. If Legette sits, however, Coker is worth consideration as a flex/WR4 in deeper leagues. Dee Alford in the slot has been the weakest link in the Falcons’ secondary thus far.

WR Jalen McMillan, TB (Wk. 6: @ NO): McMillan continues to battle through a hamstring injury, but he logged a limited practice to start the week and seems to have a real chance of returning Sunday. In the 3 games he suited up for, he tallied route participation routes of 80% or higher in all of them, and his average target was over 15 yards downfield. Keep tabs on the injury reports here, but if McMillan returns to something close to his normal role, he’s got some extra upside against a New Orleans defense that has given up the 5^th-most completions of 20+ yards and the 2^nd-most completions of 40+ yards this season (T-5^th and T-2^nd to be precise). The floor here is zero points, but there’s a ceiling that may prove to be worth chasing.

TE Erick All, CIN (Wk. 6: @ NYG): Mike Gesicki popped up on the Bengals’ injury report and didn’t practice Wednesday with a hamstring injury (he returned to a limited practice Thursday), opening the door for All to potentially serve as the starting TE this week against the Giants. Week 5 was a down week for the rookie – he matched his highest route participation rate of the season (37%) but earned his lowest target rate (13%) since week 1. All had been putting up 6-8 weekly PPR points because he was being targeted on more than a third of his routes, but he tallied just 3 points last Sunday as Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins dominated the receiving work. If Gesicki misses this week, I think we could see All’s route participation climb into the mid-50s (that’s where Gesicki has been), and he should get back into that 6-8 point range even if the target rate doesn’t rebound. If the target rate bounces back, a top-12 finish is possible.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter/X (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.