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Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve now officially hit the halfway point of the NFL season, but we’re getting close to the stretch run for the fantasy regular season. This is a good point to evaluate your team and try to make some trades to shore up your weaknesses, but hopefully you do that in a more thoughtful way than the way the Colts have handled their head coaching situation. The Colts made news this week by firing Frank Reich, and then hiring Jeff Saturday as their interim head coach. Saturday becomes the first NFL head coach ever to have zero prior experience coaching at the college or NFL level. Making things better, the team didn’t realize until after Saturday was hired that they didn’t have a single coach on the staff who had ever served as an offensive play-caller. They settled on assistant QB coach Parks Frazier to handle those duties this week. What could go wrong?

Week 9 was also a messy week for the rookies outside of the top names that have been consistently producing. Malik Willis had another shit show of a performance in his second career start, Romeo Doubs suffered what looked to be a pretty bad ankle injury, and Drake London failed to break 25 receiving yards. Cade Otton was the one bright spot among the less heralded rookies in week 9, scoring a game-winning TD as he finished as the PPR TE4 for the week. There’s another round of notable byes this week (Bengals, Jets, Ravens, and Patriots), so you could again be looking for some replacements to fill in, and there are probably some rookies among the guys you’re considering. I’m here to help talk you through the outlooks for those rookies as always.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Any data on route participation, air yards, and other usage rates are per Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report on Pro Football Focus. 

Let’s dive into week 10…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start: 

RB Kenneth Walker III, SEA (Wk. 10: @TB): Walker has been the starting running back in Seattle for 4 weeks now since the Rashaad Penny injury. He’s handled 19+ touches in all 4 games while scoring at least 1 TD in each game and averaging 22 PPR points per game. This is a tough matchup – Tampa Bay ranks 13th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat and has allowed the 4th-fewest RB points per game – but Walker’s volume is locked in. He’s not a great option for DFS lineups this week, but Walker is a rock solid RB2 who we know has top-12 upside. 

RB Dameon Pierce, HOU (Wk. 10: @NYG): Pierce has topped 80 scrimmage yards in 5 of his last 6 games and handled 18+ touches in all 6. Negative game script hasn’t been a problem for him, so don’t worry about the Texans being a touchdown underdog this week. The Giants rank 24th in run defense DVOA, and Pierce should see his usual workload, a workload that has made him the PPR RB12 in points per game since week 3. He’s a safe RB2 this week.

WR Chris Olave, NO (Wk. 10: @Pit.): We haven’t seen Olave put up the kind of crazy 13+ target games we saw from him earlier this season lately, but he’s now reached double-digit PPR points in 7 straight games and faces a Pittsburgh defense that has allowed the most WR points per game in the league. Olave has a weekly WR3 floor, but he has legit WR1 upside this week in a plus matchup. Don’t overthink this one. Olave should be in your lineups. 

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting: 

RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL (Wk. 10: @Car.): As expected, Allgeier saw his playing time take a dip with Cordarrelle Patterson back in week 9. Allgeier played his lowest snap share since week 2 at 38%, but he still handled 11 touches and tallied more than a dozen PPR points against the Chargers. During CPatt’s absence, Allgeier was a safe weekly flex play, but he becomes more of a matchup-dependent one with Patterson back. The Falcons run enough that Patterson’s return doesn’t destroy his value. Luckily Allgeier gets a good matchup this week. The Panthers rank 23rd in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 3rd-most RB points per game. Allgeier had his best fantasy game of the year against these Panthers with a RB13 PPR finish in week 8, albeit with Cordarrelle sidelined. I don’t know that I’d count on another finish that high from Allgeier, but he’s a useful RB3 this week if you need help there. 

WR George Pickens, PIT (Wk. 10: vs. NO): The Steelers jettisoned Chase Claypool to the Bears during the bye week, thinning their passing target tree a bit. Claypool had drawn a 17% target share for the season, and now leaves those targets to be divvied up between Pickens, Diontae Johnson, and Pat Freiermuth. The Saints haven’t been a very daunting pass defense this season since trading away CJ Gardner-Johnson and losing Marshon Lattimore to injury. They’ve allowed the 6th-most points per game to wide receivers lined up on the perimeter, and their two starting corners with Lattimore out rank 84th and 109th in PFF coverage grade out of 113 qualified cornerbacks. There’s a chance Lattimore could return here, but it’s safe to assume he’d have some rust and he’d spend most of his day covering Diontae Johnson. That should give Pickens a huge opportunity for a statement game here. The Steelers’ passing game as a whole remains underwhelming with Kenny Pickett at QB, but Pickens is a pretty good bet for 60+ yards with upside for more in a favorable matchup. He should have a higher weekly floor moving forward with Claypool gone. 

TE Greg Dulcich, DEN (Wk. 10: @Ten.): Dulcich is the PPR TE6 in points per game since he returned from IR in week 6. He’s been a top-12 finisher in all 3 weeks that he’s played, and he’s earned a 20% target share in each of the last two games. The Broncos get a matchup this week that they should be attacking through the air. The Titans rank 1st in run defense DVOA and 15th in pass defense DVOA. They also allow the 6th-most TE points per game. Dulcich should be a top-8 option at tight end this week.

TE Cade Otton, TB (Wk. 10: vs. Sea.): Otton has played 80% or more of the snaps in 4 games this season. He’s scored double-digit PPR points in 3 of them, and this week gets to face a defense that has allowed the most tight end points per game. A lot of those points allowed came in two blowup games by TJ Hockenson and Taysom Hill, but the Seahawks have allowed double-digit PPR points to an opposing tight end in 7 of their 9 games, and 8+ points to a tight end in all of them. Cam Brate may return this week, so keep an eye on reports on who will be starting at tight end for the Bucs in this one, but I think Otton has done enough to earn the job going forward, and he’s a top-10 option this week at the position if he’s going to be the starter. 

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting: 

QB Kenny Pickett, PIT (Wk. 10: vs. NO): Pickett is only on the borderline if we’re talking about superflex or 2 QB leagues. The Saints have been a middling defense against QBs, allowing the 16th-most QB points per game, but the place they’ve been hurt is by running QBs. They’ve allowed the 6th-most QB rushing yards per game, and all the QBs who have scored 17+ points against them have either thrown 3 TD passes or run for 30+ yards. Pickett has just 2 TD passes and 8 INTs for the year, so I wouldn’t count on him to throw for 3 scores, especially after the team traded away one of his weapons in Chase Claypool. Pickett did run for 37 yards in week 8 against Philly, but it was his first game with more than 20 rushing yards. If Pickett finishes in the top-20 QBs for the week, it’ll be a positive outcome for him. 

RB Brian Robinson Jr., WAS (Wk. 10: @Phi.): Since returning to the Commanders’ lineup in week 5, Robinson has been an uninspiring floor play RB3 for fantasy purposes. If you’re looking for something in the range of 15 carries for 50 yards, and maybe a target, B-Rob is a pretty good bet to do that each week. If you’re looking for more, you’re probably barking up the wrong tree. Philadelphia had been less than stellar against the run prior to last week, but with rookie defensive tackle Jordan Davis sidelined in week 10 they let Dameon Pierce run roughshod over them to the tune of 139 yards on 27 carries. Davis will be out again this week, but don’t fall into the trap of expecting a similar outing from Robinson. B-Rob hasn’t averaged more than 3.65 yards per carry in any game this season, and while he may have slightly better efficiency in this one, you’re still going to need a touchdown to get a truly useful fantasy day out of Robinson. He’s gotten at least 1 carry inside the 10-yard line in just two of the five games he’s played so far. 

RB Rachaad White, TB (Wk. 10: vs. Sea.): There’s been a lot of noise made about the end of Tampa’s comeback win over the Rams last weekend, and how Leonard Fournette was frustrated to be standing on the sideline with White in the game for a crucial late drive. Some beat writers have hinted at White’s role growing here, but don’t get carried away. White’s 11 touches last Sunday were a season-high, but his 35% snap share was right in line with where he’s been over the last 6 weeks. Fournette is still getting all the goal line carries, and against the Rams he played 100% of the 2-minute offense snaps and was in a route more than twice as often as White. The Seahawks are a very favorable running back matchup – they rank 10th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 9th-most RB points per game - but you’re still counting on White to do damage on 8-10 touches if you start him, and they’re not the highest value touches. White has averaged just 4.3 yards per touch on the season, and he’s found the end zone only once. View him as a very dicey RB3 option this week. 

RB Isiah Pacheco, KC (Wk. 10: vs. Jax.): Pacheco has officially been the starter in the Chiefs’ backfield for two games now, and in those games, he’s scored a total of 6.2 PPR points. This is still a 3-headed rotation, and Pacheco isn’t getting the goal line carries or catching passes. Jacksonville allows the 10th-most RB points per game, but Pacheco probably isn’t going to help you much unless he gets into the end zone. 

WR Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG (Wk. 10: vs. Hou.): Wan’Dale has shown the ability to earn targets in his first few full games played, but the Giants would be wise to use a heavy dose of Saquon Barkley this week. The Texans rank dead last in run defense DVOA and have allowed over 150 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs. Wan’Dale’s average target depth is just 4.8 yards downfield, so he needs volume or to score a TD to have a productive fantasy day, and I expect the Giants’ passing volume to be lower than usual. Robinson is a PPR WR4 this week, but you can probably find better options. 

WR Drake London, ATL (Wk. 10: @Car.): London hasn’t caught 5+ passes in a game since week 2, and he hasn’t caught for 50+ yards or scored a touchdown since week 3. The team’s low passing volume continues to be a drag on his production. The Falcons faced this same Panthers defense in an overtime shootout two weeks ago, and London finished that game with 4-31 on 5 targets. The Panthers have allowed the 9th-most points per game to wide receivers lined up out wide per Sports Info Solutions, but it's been nearly impossible to count on more than 5-6 targets for London per game. He’s a WR4 even in a strong matchup this week. 

WR Alec Pierce, IND (Wk. 10: @LV): Sam Ehlinger has started 2 games at QB for the Colts, and they haven’t been pretty for the Indianapolis offense. Pierce has averaged 2 catches for 44 yards in those two games, and this week things could get even messier with a first-time head coach and first-time play caller in charge. The Raiders’ defense is bad. They rank dead last in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 13th-most WR points per game, but I don’t see how you can trust Pierce in lineups this week unless you’re desperate. 

WR Jahan Dotson, WAS (Wk. 10: @Phi.): If Dotson is able to return in week 10, you’d be best served waiting a week before seriously considering him for lineups. I wouldn’t expect him to get a full workload in his first game back, we haven’t seen what kind of rapport he has with Taylor Heinicke, and he would be tangling with a great pair of corners in Darius Slay Jr. and James Bradberry. According to Sports Info Solutions, the Eagles have allowed the 6th-fewest PPR points per game to receivers lined up on the perimeter, where Dotson lines up 80% of the time. 

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit: 

QB Malik Willis, TEN (Wk. 10: vs. Den.): Willis’ rushing production did take a step forward in his second NFL start (he tallied 40 rushing yards), but he looked like he didn’t belong under center in an NFL offense. In two full games played, he’s thrown for 135 yards, and lost 38 yards on sacks. If he gets to start again this week, it will come against a defense that ranks 1st in the NFL in pass defense DVOA and allows the fewest QB points per game. I expect Tannehill to be back at QB this week but keep Willis away from your lineups if he gets the start again.

RB James Cook, BUF (Wk. 10: vs. Min.): Cook’s role has increased in the last two weeks, seeing over 20% of the offensive snaps for just the 2nd and 3rd times this season, but that could go the other direction this Sunday with Nyheim Hines more up to speed in the offense. With his role so up in the air, Cook isn’t much of an option against a Minnesota defense that allows the 6th-fewest RB points per game. 

RB Raheem Blackshear, CAR (Wk. 10: vs. Atl.): Blackshear was a pleasant surprise in week 9, finishing as the PPR RB11 for the week, but most of that production came in garbage time with Baker Mayfield under center. The Panthers have already announced they’re going back to PJ Walker this week, and Chuba Hubbard looks to be on track to return to action after getting in full practices this week. Blackshear has just 1 target from Walker on the season, and his limited role may all but vanish with Hubbard back. The matchup is favorable against a bad Atlanta defense, but there isn’t enough opportunity to trust in a repeat performance here. 

RB Jerome Ford, CLE (Wk. 10: @Mia.): Ford should return from IR this week, but there just isn’t room in this backfield for him to carve out an initial role beyond special teams. I would expect Ford to be behind D’Ernest Johnson for the RB3 role in the offense. Running backs not named Nick Chubb or Kareem Hunt have totaled just 41 offensive snaps for the season.  

WR Samori Toure, GB (Wk. 10: vs. Dal.): Toure played an expanded role in Detroit last week after Romeo Doubs left with an ankle injury and Christian Watson left with a possible concussion, but the Packers leaned more into 12 personnel after those injuries, with tight end Josiah Deguara and Toure splitting that extra playing time. Watson is cleared from his concussion and should be back this week, meaning Toure is unlikely to match the 38% snap share he played last weekend. Toure is only in play if you’re desperate this week. 

WR Rashid Shaheed, NO (Wk. 10: @Pit.): Shaheed made some splashy big plays in his first couple games of the season, but he played a season-low 5 offensive snaps in week 9. The Steelers do give up more WR points per game than any other team in the league, but they’ve allowed just 5 plays this season of 40+ yards, and Shaheed is going to need one of those big plays to be fantasy relevant on such limited playing time. 

WR David Bell, CLE (Wk. 10: @Mia.): Bell has yet to reach 6 PPR points in a game this season. Miami’s offense has been operating at a high level in recent weeks with Tua back at full strength, and Cleveland would be wise to attack them through the air if they need to score to keep pace. The Dolphins rank 31st in pass defense DVOA, but even in games where the Browns threw the ball 35+ times, Bell has been a non-factor. We’re still waiting around for Deshaun Watson to come back for Bell to have a chance at relevance. 

WR Skyy Moore, KC (Wk. 10: vs. Jax.): Moore’s snaps didn’t disappear in Kadarius Toney’s first game with the Chiefs – he was on the field for 26% of the offensive snaps on Sunday night – but I’d expect that number to go down as Toney gets up to speed in the offense. Moore isn’t exactly doing damage on the snaps that he is playing. He hasn’t caught a pass since week 6.

TE Chig Okonkwo, TEN (Wk. 10: vs. Den.): Okonkwo started off Sunday night’s game with a 48-yard reception on the first play from scrimmage, but he didn’t touch the ball again and was targeted just twice the rest of the night. He was still on the field for just 35% of the offensive snaps while fellow tight ends Geoff Swaim and Austin Hooper were both over 60%. Even if Tannehill comes back and they throw a bit more, Okonkwo remains no more than a TD dart throw. 

TE Teagan Quitoriano, HOU (Wk. 10: @NYG): Quitoriano got the start and scored a touchdown last Thursday in his NFL debut, but it was his only target of the game as he played just 18 offensive snaps. The Giants are a middling TE defense (13th-most TE points allowed per game), but both Brevin Jordan and OJ Howard remain ahead of the rookie in the pecking order despite Quitoriano being credited with the “start” last week. 

TEs Peyton Hendershot & Jake Ferguson, DAL (Wk. 10: @GB): In the 5 games where Dalton Schultz has played more than 10 snaps, Hendershot and Ferguson have combined for 7 catches, 35 yards, and 2 TDs. Green Bay has allowed the 3rd-fewest TE points per game. Bet on one of these backup tight ends finding the end zone at your own peril. 

Rookies on Byes in Week 10: WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ, WR Tyquan Thornton, NE, TEs Isaiah Likely & Charlie Kolar, BAL

Rookies Who May as Well be on Byes: RB Ronnie Rivers, LAR, RB Snoop Conner, JAX, RB Keontay Ingram, ARI, RB Trestan Ebner, CHI, WR Jalen Tolbert, DAL, WR Velus Jones Jr., CHI, WR Khalil Shakir, BUF, TE Jelani Woods, IND, TE Trey McBride, ARI, TEs Cole Turner & Armani Rogers, WAS

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options: 

RB Jaylen Warren, PIT (Wk. 10: vs. NO): Najee Harris’ continued struggles may have finally forced Mike Tomlin’s hand in the Steelers’ backfield. Tomlin hinted this week that Warren could see more touches going forward, and some local Steelers beat writers have tossed out that idea as well. Warren has averaged nearly 2 yards more per touch than Najee so far this season. I don’t think he’d continue at that efficiency level with a bigger workload, but he’s undoubtedly shown more juice than Najee this season and deserves more opportunities. The Saints are a middling run defense, ranking 16th in run defense DVOA and allowing the 13th-fewest RB points per game. If you’re desperate for RB help, Tomlin is going to give Warren the chance to develop the hot hand this week, and if he does, he could provide a useful RB3 performance. 

RB Isaiah Spiller, LAC (Wk. 10: @SF): Spiller isn’t a good option for this week against a great 49ers defense, but he’s suddenly an upside stash for deeper leagues after working his way into the RB2 role for the Chargers behind Austin Ekeler. Spiller handled 30% of the Chargers’ rushing attempts last week in a tight game with the Falcons. Sony Michel still worked as the backup in passing situations, but Spiller has the skills to earn more work there and he’s going to see a good number of opportunities in games with neutral or positive game scripts. Ekeler has played just 62.3% of the offensive snaps for the season, so Spiller could carve out a huge role if he becomes the full-time RB2. He’s free to pick up in most leagues and could wind up being a weekly RB3 option down the stretch.  

WR Christian Watson, GB (Wk. 10: vs. Dal.): Watson left last week’s game with a possible concussion. He was apparently cleared to return to the game, but the team held him back as a precaution. He should be a full go this week against a Dallas defense that’s been known to be aggressive in the secondary. The Packers need Watson to step up this week with Romeo Doubs sidelined, and I like his chances to pull in at least one downfield target in this one. The floor here is zero points, but Watson costs just $2,600 in DraftKings showdown contests for this game, half of what Samori Toure does, and I like Watson much more than Toure in this one. Toure has played nearly 60% of his snaps in the slot, and the Cowboys are much more vulnerable to receivers on the outside than in the slot. According to Sports Info Solutions, Dallas allows the 13th-most points per game to receivers lined up outside, and the 23rd most to receivers lined up in the slot.

WR Treylon Burks, TEN (Wk. 10: vs. Den.): The Titans have opened the practice window for Burks to be able to return from IR, and Burks himself said he expects to be activated for week 10. You shouldn’t throw him into lineups this week, but if he’s a free agent he’s worth picking up in most leagues. The Titans are desperate for wide receiver help, and Burks could take over their WR1 role in the back half of the season. For week 10, Burks will likely be eased back in, and he faces a Denver defense that allows the fewest WR points per game and ranks 1st in pass defense DVOA. Only 1 receiver has scored 10+ points against the Broncos in the last 3 weeks. 

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you pick up another big win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 8 finally brought us the scoring outburst we’ve been clamoring for all season. The week saw a season-high 8 games where the teams combined for 45+ points, and a season-high 9 skill players put up 30+ PPR points. I’m sure you saw higher overall scores across your fantasy leagues in week 8, and hopefully you were the beneficiary of some of those scoring outbursts. Don’t get too used to it though – week 9 is the one of just two weeks this season with 6 teams on a bye in the same week, so overall scores will probably come down. You’re likely going to have to do work to fill in some lineup gaps this week, and if you’ve been here before, you know I’ve got some rookies to tell you about that could help you do that.

Week 8 was sort of a mixed bag for the rookies. We saw Garrett Wilson get his season back on track with the 2^nd 100-yard game of his career. Dameon Pierce and Kenneth Walker III both had lackluster days that were salvaged by late TDs. Tyler Allgeier outproduced them both. Romeo Doubs and Samori Toure both got into the end zone for the Packers on Sunday night while Christian Watson left with a concussion. Chris Olave and Alec Pierce had ho-hum games while George Pickens and Drake London disappointed. Malik Willis got a win in his first start but posted an abysmal fantasy day. Which of these guys can you rely on to help you through the byes in week 9? That’s what I’m here to discuss.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Any data on route participation, air yards, and other usage rates are per Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report on Pro Football Focus.

Let’s get into week 9…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

RB Kenneth Walker III, SEA (Wk. 9: @Ari.): Walker looked like he was going to be a huge let down in week 8, but a 4^th-quarter touchdown helped propel him to a RB25 finish that didn’t kill you if he was in your lineup. It was Walker’s 4^th straight game with a touchdown and 3^rd straight with 18+ carries. He ran for 97 yards and a score in the first meeting with these Cardinals back in week 6. The lack of meaningful passing game targets will always limit Walker’s ceiling, but his volume on the ground keeps him a safe weekly RB2, especially facing a defense he’s already smashed against in a week with so many byes.

WR Chris Olave, NO (Wk. 9: vs. Bal.): Olave had his worst fantasy day since week 1 last Sunday, and he still managed to post double-digit PPR points. Olave was still heavily involved in the passing game (25% target share and 32% air yardage share), but the Saints just played from ahead all day and didn’t need to throw much in a 24-0 victory. Things should go back to normal in week 9. New Orleans is a 3-point underdog at home against the Ravens on Monday night. At some point Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry will return the lineup, but for now those guys feel like figments of our imagination. Olave likely will maintain the WR1 role when they’re back, and the Ravens allow the 5^th-most WR points per game. He's a top-24 option this week no matter who else is able to suit up.

UPDATE: Michael Thomas has been placed on IR and likely will miss the remainder of the season.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL (Wk. 9: vs. LAC): This recommendation is contingent on the status of Cordarrelle Patterson this week, but if C-Patt sits, I like Allgeier as a strong RB2 option in this one. Allgeier has played more than 55% of the snaps in all 4 games Patterson has missed, and he’s led the backfield in PPR points in 3 of them and in routes run in all 4. The Chargers have allowed the 2^nd-most RB points per game and rank just 23^rd in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA. It’s one of the best matchups a running back can draw. If Cordarrelle returns, you could probably still get away with starting Allgeier as a RB3 if you’re in a pinch.

RB Dameon Pierce, HOU (Wk. 9: vs. Phi.): My fears about Pierce last week came to fruition for most of his day against the Titans’ stout run defense. Pierce had tallied just 6.8 PPR points for the day prior to his garbage-time TD in the final 30 seconds that saved his afternoon. You probably were breathing a sigh of relief when he got into the end zone if you started him last week, but you might’ve missed a positive change to his role while you were stressing over his stat line. PFF’s Dwain McFarland pointed out this week that Pierce was on the field for 100% of the Texans’ snaps in the two-minute offense. They were the first snaps he’s seen all year in the two-minute drill, and it was on those snaps that he scored that late touchdown. Those are the snaps where Pierce can put up garbage time receiving production and pad both his floor and his ceiling. Despite their 7-0 record, the Eagles are just a middling RB defense. They’ve allowed the 15^th-most RB points per game, and rank 22^nd in run defense DVOA. Pierce would be a reasonable RB2 this week on just his rushing role, but if the two-minute snaps continue he’s got the upside for a top-12 finish. The Texans should be fighting from behind late in this game.

WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 9: vs. Buf.): The Jets’ passing game has been pretty rough since Zach Wilson took the starting job back in week 4, but week 8 showed us that things aren’t as dire as they’ve seemed. Zach is still going to be inefficient, but when the game script is bad the passing volume is going to be there. Zach has started 5 games this season. In the three games where the Jets never trailed by more than 2 points, he averaged 22 passing attempts per game. In the other two games (both games where the Jets fell behind by double-digits), he averaged 38.5 attempts. They’re nearly certain to be in negative game script as 13-point underdogs against the Bills. Buffalo’s defense has been impressive, ranking 4^th in pass defense DVOA, but Garrett Wilson has benefitted from Elijah Moore being in the doghouse. He played his highest snap share of the season last week and piled up over 100 yards for the 2^nd time this year. He looks to be the team’s clear WR1 in a game where the Jets are likely to throw the ball 40+ times. He should be viewed as an upside WR2 this week and will probably be a bargain at his current price tag in DFS contests ($4,800 on DraftKings). With Breece Hall out for the season, games with negative game script could become more frequent for the Jets. Garrett Wilson is a guy you should be trying to trade for now before his price goes up.

WR Romeo Doubs, GB (Wk. 9: @Det.): Figuring out when to start Doubs this season has felt a bit like playing whack-a-mole. He pops up scoring points for a couple weeks, so you take a swing at starting him in your lineups, and then he disappears for a couple weeks, only to pop up again when you’ve already moved on. You’re always chasing those elusive weeks when he’s useful. On the plus side for Doubs, his playing time has remained consistent. He checks in above an 85% route participation rate every week, and he’s earned at least 7 targets in 4 of the last 6 games. There’s still plenty of volatility here, but with so many byes this week and Green Bay facing a Detroit defense that ranks dead last in pass defense DVOA, it's hard to view Doubs as anything less than a solid WR3 this week. Green Bay has one of the highest implied point totals of the week at 26.25 points, so this is an offense that you want to target for your lineups, and Doubs is a full-time player in it.

TE Isaiah Likely, BAL (Wk. 9: @NO): Mark Andrews status remains up in the air for week 9, and Rashod Bateman has already been ruled out. Likely could be the #2 target in this passing game on Monday night. The Saints have been erasing tight ends so far this season – no tight end has found the end zone against them or reached 7 fantasy points against them (half-PPR) all season – but Zach Ertz is the only quality tight end they’ve faced. The Ravens are going to have to lean on Likely if Andrews is out. Don’t worry about the matchup. Likely is probably going to finish as a top-12 tight end this week if Andrews sits. I’d be much less excited to start him if Andrews is able to play.

UPDATE: Rashod Bateman has been placed on IR and will miss the remainder of the season. Likely may have a bigger role moving forward even when Andrews is on the field.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

RB Brian Robinson Jr., WAS (Wk. 9: vs. Min.): Robinson’s week-to-week fantasy outlook hinges on volume and getting into the end zone. He’s averaged fewer than 4 yards per carry in every game he’s played this season, and he’s earned just two targets all year. That didn’t stop him from putting up respectable fantasy days in wins against the Bears and Packers, but the recent re-emergence of Antonio Gibson and negative game script in the 4^th quarter against the Colts resulted in B-Rob putting up just 2 fantasy points in week 8. I don’t see much reason to be optimistic about a bounce-back in week 9. The Vikings are favored by 3, and they rank 16^th in run defense DVOA and allow the 10^th-fewest RB points per game. 16^th may not sound very impressive, but Robinson failed to run efficiently against Chicago and Green Bay, who rank 28^th & 31^st respectively. This looks like a game where 10-12 carries from Robinson would be a positive result for him, and that kind of volume probably means around 35-40 yards. You’ll need a TD to not be disappointed. I’d look elsewhere unless you’re stuck.

RB Isiah Pacheco, KC (Wk. 9: vs. Ten.): Pacheco was announced as the Chiefs starting running back ahead of their week 7 tilt with the 49ers, but he handled all of 8 carries in that game, and 4 of them came in the 4^th quarter with the team up by double-digits. He did see a few more first half carries than usual, but it was far from the featured back role people were hoping for after the announcement. This is still a 3-way committee with CEH and Jerick McKinnon. Kansas City is an 11-point favorite this week, so there’s an opportunity for some extra garbage time carries, but the Titans rank 1^st in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 5^th-fewest running back points per game. Pacheco doesn’t catch passes (just 2 receptions all season), so he’s going to need to have success on the ground to post a useful day. He’s a low-end RB3 this week.

RB Rachaad White, TB (Wk. 9: vs. LAR): White continues to play just enough to keep himself in the borderline discussion each week. He’s handled between 7 and 9 touches in 5 straight games and consistently finishes as a PPR RB4. Leonard Fournette continues to handle the goal line touches and enough of the passing work that White lives on the fringe of useful. The Rams have allowed the 11^th-fewest running back points per game, so this isn’t the matchup to bet on White stepping up his production on that same workload. If you are desperate for a running back this week, White should be a fringe RB3 with all the byes going on, but I wouldn’t count on him for much more than that.

WR Drake London, ATL (Wk. 9: vs. LAC): London continues to be a victim of Arthur Smith’s run-heavy play calling, and I don’t see that getting better for him in week 9. The rookie hasn’t reached 8 PPR points in any of his last 5 games despite a 24.2% target share over that span. On paper, you may be looking at this game as a get-right spot for London. The Chargers seem like the kind of team that can put the Falcons in negative game script, and they allow the 12^th-most wide receiver points per game. It seems like a great opportunity for Atlanta’s WR1 to have a nice day. Unfortunately, the Chargers offense will be a lot less explosive without Keenan Allen or Mike Williams, and they boast one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. The Chargers have allowed a league-worst 6.1 yards per carry to opposing running backs. Game script might not be so negative for Atlanta, and the Falcons should be able to impose their will in the running game, especially with it looking like Cordarrelle Patterson will return from IR this week. Anything over 5 targets for London in this game should be seen as a win. That gets him to the fringe of being playable for week 9 with 6 teams off, but you likely have better options.

WR Alec Pierce, IND (Wk. 9: @NE): Pierce has topped 60 receiving yards or scored a touchdown in 5 of his last 6 games, but my concerns about passing volume with Sam Ehlinger taking over at QB proved to be valid in week 8. The young QB threw the ball just 23 times, with only 5 targets going to Pierce. Matt Ryan averaged 42.4 passing attempts per game in his 7 starts. Pierce has made the most of his opportunities this season, averaging over 10 yards per target in those last 6 games, a mark only 18 players have hit for the season so far, but the more concerning stat was that he saw his lowest route participation rate since week 4 at just 65%. The Colts played with 2 tight ends on the field more often after the QB switch, which cuts into Pierce’s playing time. He’s still a good bet to see right around 5 targets, and maybe a little bit more if Jonathan Taylor sits this week, but if you start him, you shouldn’t expect more than a floor performance. The Patriots rank 5^th in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 11^th fewest WR points per game. You could do worse than Pierce as a bye week fill in, but temper expectations.

WR Jahan Dotson, WAS (Wk. 9: vs. Min.): Dotson isn’t practicing yet this week as of Wednesday, but there’s a chance he could return for Sunday’s game. The matchup looks good on paper. The Vikings rank 22^nd in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 7^th-most WR points per game, but Dotson would be coming off a 4-week layoff and QB Taylor Heinicke has been leaning heavily on the guys he’s comfortable with – Terry McLaurin and Antonio Gibson. McLaurin has averaged 8 targets per game in Heinicke’s two starts, and he’s seen air yardage shares of 48% and 62% in those games. He’s the WR you want for fantasy this week. Dotson has some upside as a WR4 option if he does play, but I’d prefer other options if you’re not forced to start the rookie.

TE Cade Otton, TB (Wk. 9: vs. LAR): Cam Brate is practicing in a limited capacity as of Wednesday, so keep a close eye on the injury report if you’re considering Otton. If Brate plays, you certainly don’t want to plug Otton into lineups. If Brate sits, Otton is still not a great play this week against a Rams’ defense that allows the 3^rd-fewest tight end points per game. Only George Kittle and Zach Ertz have scored 7 points against them in a game this year, and Otton hasn’t reached a 15% target share in a game this season. In his productive weeks, Tom Brady has been throwing the ball 50+ times. Otton is a floor play TE2 this week if Brate sits.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

RB James Cook, BUF (Wk. 9: @NYJ): Cook seemed to finally gain some traction in the Bills offense in week 8, playing his second-highest snap share of the season and handling some touches in the 2^nd quarter while the game was still in doubt, but the Bills may have derailed that progress by trading for Nyheim Hines at the deadline. Cook may be back to being the RB3 in the offense this week. Buffalo is a two-TD favorite in this game, so there’s a very good chance that Cook gets some run in garbage time, but I wouldn’t count on big production from those carries against a Jets’ defense that ranks 8^th in run defense DVOA. Cook is nothing more than an upside dart throw this week for DFS contests and the deepest of season-long leagues.

RBs Kyren Williams & Ronnie Rivers, LAR (Wk. 9: @TB): Sean McVay has said Kyren Williams could be activated from IR for week 9, but it remains to be seen how big of a role he’ll step into after 7 weeks off. Ronnie Rivers led the backfield in touches last week, but he wasn’t effective with them, totaling just 7.6 PPR points. There’s no guarantee he leads the backfield again this week (my money would be on Darrell Henderson), but the Bucs allow the 6^th-fewest RB points per game. No running back in this muddied committee will be more than a desperation bye week fill-in.

UPDATE: Cam Akers returned to practice on Thursday and may be active for week 9, making this committee even less defined.

RB Raheem Blackshear, CAR (Wk. 9: @Cin.): Regardless of whether Chuba Hubbard can return this week or not, Blackshear doesn’t have fantasy relevance in week 9. Spencer Brown served as the change of pace back behind D’Onta Foreman in week 8, and Laviska Shenault more or less functioned as the receiving back. Blackshear played just 7 snaps against the Falcons, and I wouldn’t count on more this week.

RB Isaiah Spiller, LAC (Wk. 9: @Atl.): Spiller was finally active for the first time this season in week 7 ahead of the bye last week, but he played just 4 snaps and worked behind backup Sony Michel. It’s possible that could’ve been game-script related – the Chargers trailed for most of that game – but you can’t count on Spiller getting significant opportunities this week. The matchup is a good one. Atlanta ranks 26^th in run defense DVOA, but there’s no guarantee that Spiller gets more than 1 or 2 carries.

RB Snoop Conner, JAX (Wk. 9: vs. LV): Conner played just one offensive snap last week in his season debut. He’s not a fantasy option.

WR Tyquan Thornton, NE (Wk. 9: vs. Ind.): Thornton’s explosive speed always makes him a threat to break a big play, but he has fewer than 3 PPR points in 3 of his 4 games played this season. He scored 2 touchdowns in the other one. His route participation rate has been above 80% in each of the last two weeks, but the targets just haven’t been there. This week’s opponent, the Colts, allow the 2^nd-fewest WR points per game.

WRs Christian Watson & Samori Toure, GB (Wk. 9: @Det.): Watson suffered a concussion last week and seems unlikely to be ready to play in Detroit, and the likely return of Allen Lazard this week means Watson’s probably going to play only a handful of snaps if he’s able to clear the protocol. Toure scored a touchdown in week 8, but he played just 14 offensive snaps. Banking on another long TD from Toure on limited snaps this week is just asking to be let down.

WR Velus Jones Jr., CHI (Wk. 9: vs. Mia.): Jones had a season-high in touches in week 8, with 3. He’s made a couple nice plays this season when he’s gotten chances, but he’s too buried on the depth chart to be useful in fantasy leagues. The Bears also just traded for Chase Claypool and may get Byron Pringle back this week. Jones is only getting pushed further down that depth chart

WR Khalil Shakir, BUF (Wk. 9: @NYJ): Shakir hasn’t been targeted more than twice in any game that Isaiah McKenzie has been active for. You’d have to be pretty desperate to consider him this week.

WR Skyy Moore, KC (Wk. 9: vs. Ten.): Tennessee is a great matchup for wide receivers, but Moore is undoubtedly going to lose snaps after the acquisition of Kadarius Toney from the Giants. Moore was only playing around 30% of the offensive snaps over the last month anyway. Losing any of that playing time is likely the final nail in his fantasy coffin for 2022.

TE Chig Okonkwo, TEN (Wk. 9: @KC): Okonkwo has quietly seen his playing time go up in recent weeks. He had a season-high 50% route participation rate in week 8 and mostly played ahead of Austin Hooper. He’d be a sneaky TD dart throw this week facing a KC defense that has allowed 5 tight end scores in 7 games, but the Titans just don’t throw enough to rely on any of their pass catchers, especially if Ryan Tannehill is out again. Tannehill has thrown more than 25 pass attempts just once in his last 5 starts, and the Titans threw the ball just 10 times last week with Malik Willis under center. Game script could force them to throw more as 11-point underdogs in Kansas City, but look for the Titans to do everything they can to run the ball and keep it away from Patrick Mahomes. The floor here is non-existent, and the ceiling is maybe 4-5 targets.

TE Trey McBride, ARI (Wk. 9: vs. Sea.): The Seahawks have allowed the most TE points per game, but McBride hasn’t been targeted since week 4. He played 20 snaps in the first meeting with the Seahawks a couple weeks ago and didn’t see the ball come his way even once. He’s not an option this week.

TE Jelani Woods, IND (Wk. 9: @NE): I mentioned last week that I was concerned that the Colts’ passing volume would take a significant hit with the switch to Sam Ehlinger, and that proved to be a valid concern in his first start. Ehlinger attempted just 23 passes on Sunday, and only 4 of them targeted tight ends (none of them to Jelani Woods). The Patriots have allowed the 6^th-most tight end points per game this season, but the Colts would be wise to attack them on the ground. New England ranks 5^th in pass defense DVOA and 27^th in run defense DVOA. If Jonathan Taylor is unable to play, that could force a little more passing volume. It would make Woods an intriguing DFS dart throw, but nothing more than that. He's still mired in a 3-headed tight end rotation.

TEs Armani Rogers & Cole Turner, WAS (Wk. 9: vs. Min.): The Vikings have been vulnerable to tight ends, allowing the 7^th-most points per game to the position, but the Commanders’ tight ends not named Logan Thomas have had just one total outing with more than 3 targets in a game (John Bates in week 4). Thomas could return this week, but even if he doesn’t this is a 3-way logjam that doesn’t offer much fantasy upside. If Thomas sits and you want to throw a dart in a showdown contest at one of their tight ends, my money would be on Rogers ($600 on DraftKings), but none are very good options.

Rookies on Byes: QB Kenny Pickett, PIT, RB Jaylen Warren, PIT, RB Tyrion Davis-Price, SF, WR Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG, WR George Pickens, PIT, WR David Bell, CLE, WR Jalen Tolbert, DAL, TE Greg Dulcich, DEN, TEs Jake Ferguson & Peyton Hendershot, DAL

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Malik Willis, TEN (Wk. 9: @KC): To call Willis’ NFL debut a disappointment would be a huge understatement, but if Tannehill isn’t able to return this week I kind of like the rookie to have a modest bounce-back, at least from a fantasy perspective. Willis wasn’t asked to make plays in week 8 because the Titans didn’t need him to. The Texans were helpless to stop Derrick Henry and Dontrell Hilliard on the ground, and their banged-up offense couldn’t muster enough scoring to make it much of a game. The Chiefs are not likely to have the same problems this week. Tennessee is an 11-point underdog, so Willis will probably have to put the ball in the air quite a bit more this week, and he’s likely to use his legs quite a bit more trying to create plays. The Chiefs have allowed every QB they’ve faced this season to throw for multiple TDs and score 15+ fantasy points. None of those prior opponents were as inexperienced as Willis or had worse receiving weapons, so don’t view 15 points as Willis’ floor, but I like his chances to deliver 50+ rushing yards and finish as a serviceable QB2 this week (assuming he starts and Tannehill sits).

RB Keaontay Ingram, ARI (Wk. 9: vs. Sea.): Darrel Williams returned from injury in week 8, and Ingram didn’t play a single offensive snap. That goose egg is probably going to make Ingram an unpopular pick for DFS lineups this week, but Williams was placed on IR on Wednesday. James Conner continues to practice on a limited basis, but that’s where he’s been the last couple weeks and wound up inactive in each game. If Conner misses another game this week, Ingram will work as the RB2 behind Eno Benjamin again. He handled 11 touches in that same role in week 7, and this week he faces a Seattle defense that allows the 7^th-most RB points per game. He’ll likely need to get into the end zone to reach double-digit points, but Ingram costs just $1,200 for Showdown contests on DraftKings.

RB Jaylen Warren, PIT (Wk. 9: Bye): Warren is on a bye this week, but he may be worth scooping up on the waiver wire if he’s still sitting out there in your leagues. Najee Harris continues to look like a shell of the player he was last season, and the public noise has been getting louder that Warren needs to see more opportunities. Maybe the week off helps Najee rest his ailing foot (he’s been dealing with a Lisfranc injury all season), or maybe it allows the Steelers to take a hard look at which running back gives them a better chance to win. Warren has been significantly more efficient than Najee with his opportunities, and the Steelers have a favorable schedule of run defenses late in the season. Each of Pittsburgh’s final 6 opponents of the year are currently either in the bottom-10 at limiting RB fantasy points or in the bottom 10 in run defense DVOA.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you pick up another big win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’re now 7 weeks into the NFL season, and in some ways, it feels like we know less now that when we started. Every week it feels like there are 2-3 games with stunning outcomes. Just in the last two weeks we’ve seen the Jets beat the Packers, the Falcons beat the 49ers, the Steelers and Panthers both beat the Bucs, the Bears top the Patriots, and the Seahawks beat the Chargers. It truly has been an “Any Given Sunday” kind of season so far, and that keeps things interesting each and every week. Hopefully, you’ve been able to navigate the chaos well enough to keep your fantasy teams afloat.

When it comes to the rookies, Chris Olave and George Pickens had nice games in week 7, but it’s the running backs who continue to dominate the rookie conversation. Breece Hall has ripped off 6 straight top-24 weekly finishes, Dameon Pierce has tallied 4 in a row, and Kenneth Walker III has posted 3 straight. Unfortunately, Breece Hall’s streak will end there as he suffered a torn ACL that will end his season and create a huge void here at the Rookie Report. Week 7 also saw the continued disappearances of rookie receivers Garrett Wilson and Drake London as their coaches continue to lean harder into the run game at the expense of opportunity for their star pass catchers. Alec Pierce could be the next rookie to fall victim to play-calling as Indy’s switch to Sam Ehlinger at QB could also signal a new, run-heavy approach. Finding start-able rookies beyond the obvious names is getting tougher each week. Let’s get into what it all means for week 8.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Any data on route participation, air yards, and other usage rates are per Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report on Pro Football Focus.

Let’s dive into 8…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

RB Kenneth Walker III, SEA (Wk. 8: vs. NYG): Watching Kenneth Walker run for Seattle is enough to make you re-think the mantra that ‘running backs don’t matter.’ He’s been electric for 3 straight weeks now since Rashaad Penny suffered a season-ending injury. Walker isn’t going to provide much production in the passing game, but he’s averaged 118 rushing yards and scored 4 TDs in the last 3 weeks, good enough to rank as the RB6 in PPR points per game in that span despite just 2 catches for 13 yards. On paper, the Giants may look like a tougher matchup, allowing the 11^th-fewest RB points per game, but it’s a perfect matchup for Walker. New York’s success against RBs stems from their ability to limit receiving production from the position, something Walker doesn’t get much of anyway. The Giants have allowed 8 fewer RB receptions than any other team, and the 2^nd-fewest RB receiving yards for the season. They also have allowed the 3^rd-most RB rushing yards and rank 30^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA. Walker could be in line for a huge game. He should be treated as a top-10 option this week at the position and feels like a bargain in DFS lineups.

WR Chris Olave, NO (Wk. 8: vs. LV): Any concerns you might’ve had about Olave returning from his concussion, or having to deal with Andy Dalton at QB, were put to bed pretty quickly on Thursday night. All this kid does is produce fantasy points. In the last 5 games, he’s been active for, Olave has had a 25% or higher target share, 39% or higher air yardage share, and 13+ PPR points in all of them. He’s averaging 8.8 targets per game and draws a Vegas defense that ranks 30^th in pass defense DVOA. Olave is a locked-in WR2 for fantasy lineups this week. 

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL (Wk. 8: vs. Car.): The Atlanta Falcons team stat line from week 7 is jarring to look at. In a game where they trailed on every single offensive snap, and by multiple scores on all but 5 offensive snaps, the Falcons attempted just 13 passes. The commitment to running the football in the face of that negative game script was mind-boggling, especially as they struggled to have success with it. Atlanta called a run play on 16 of their 19 first down plays in the game and averaged just 2.8 yards per carry on those plays. On the 3 first down pass plays called, they put up 88 total yards and a touchdown. While the playcalling looks insane to us, it’s a good thing for Tyler Allgeier. Allgeier emerged from what had been a near 50/50 split with Caleb Huntley and handled two-thirds of the RB rushing attempts and played 62% of the offensive snaps. This week the Falcons get a matchup where the game script should be much more favorable as 6-point favorites against the Panthers. Carolina allows the 13^th-most RB points per game, and Cordarrelle Patterson is still at least one more week away from returning. If Allgeier continues to see a similar share of the backfield work this week he’s got high-end RB2 upside.

RB Brian Robinson Jr., WAS (Wk. 8: @Ind.): Robinson’s role remained largely the same with Taylor Heinicke under center in week 7. He handled more than 50% of the team's rushing attempts for the third straight game and saw his first two targets of the season. Antonio Gibson had a nice bounce-back game last weekend as well, but his playing time came at the expense of JD McKissic, not B-Rob. The Colts are favored by 2.5 points in this game, but with their QB switch to Sam Ehlinger, I wouldn’t count on them to live up to that Vegas line. Game script could end up working in Robinson’s favor. The Colts have allowed the 9th-most RB rushing yards per game and have given up 10+ points (half-PPR) to 8 running backs in their past 6 games. There’s room for both Robinson and Gibson to have a nice game again. Robinson is a floor play RB2/3 this week. You can count on reasonable rushing volume and hope for a TD.

WR George Pickens, PIT (Wk. 8: @Phi.): In case you haven’t been paying attention in recent weeks, the George Pickens breakout is happening in Pittsburgh. The rookie has at least 6 catches and 60+ yards in 3 of his last 4 games and has outproduced Diontae Johnson in every one of those 3 games. Kenny Pickett seems to favor Pickens and tight end Pat Freiermuth as his top options in the passing game. The matchup this weekend won’t be easy as Pickens will get to tangle with veteran corners James Bradberry and Darius Slay on the outside, but while the Eagles have shut down QBs, they haven’t been quite as dominant against wide receivers. Philly has allowed the 11^th-fewest WR points per game and has allowed 6 different receivers to score in double figures this season (half-PPR). Pittsburgh should be playing from behind and be forced to throw a lot. I think Pickens sees 7+ targets in this one, and that makes him a solid WR3 option even in a tough matchup.

WR Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG (Wk. 8: @Sea.): Robinson has been active for just 3 games this season, and he’s already emerging as the team’s clear lead wide receiver. The rookie is quickly proving to be a PPR maven. He was targeted on 36% of his routes in limited playing time in his return from IR in week 6 and followed that up by leading the team with 8 targets in a more full-time role in week 7. The Seahawks have allowed the 12^th-most PPR points per game to wide receivers lined up in the slot this season per Sports Info Solutions, so Robinson should be in line for another reasonable PPR game. Brian Daboll has run a really creative offense so far through 7 games, so hopefully, we’ll see Wan’Dale do more than just catch short throws as the season goes on. The team traded away Kadarius Toney to Kansas City on Thursday, removing one of the few WRs on the Giants who actually has the talent to threaten Wan’Dale’s new role.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB Kenny Pickett, PIT (Wk. 8: @Phi.): There has been plenty of passing volume for Pickett in his starts – he’s averaged 48 pass attempts per game in his two full contests – but that volume hasn’t added up to big fantasy performances and he gets a brutal matchup this week. The Steelers are 11-point underdogs, so Pickett should be throwing a bunch again, but Philly has allowed just 1 QB all year to throw for more than 225 yards against them, and they’ve allowed the 2^nd-fewest QB points per game. I wouldn’t view Pickett as anything more than a low-end QB2 this week, and I’d avoid him in Superflex leagues that penalize harshly for turnovers. Pickett has a 2-to-7 TD-to-INT ratio on the year, and the Eagles’ defense has 9 interceptions through 6 games.

RB Dameon Pierce, HOU (Wk. 8: vs. Ten.): I know most of you will disagree with this one, but I don’t feel good about Pierce this week. I know he’s been great over the last month, putting up over 100 scrimmage yards in each of his last 4 games and finding the end zone in 3 of them, but the Titans are a tough matchup for him. The Titans rank 3^rd in run defense DVOA, and they’ve allowed just 3 running backs to score in double-digits against them this year – Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, and Jonathan Taylor. All 3 of them caught at least 5 passes in those games, a mark that Pierce has only hit once this season. Dameon still isn’t getting on the field in obvious passing situations. Since ascending to the lead back role in week 2, Pierce has yet to face a defense that ranks higher than 15^th in run defense DVOA. The rookie gets enough usage that he could make me look stupid this week, but I’d be fading him in DFS lineups, and I think you should temper expectations in season-long leagues and take a hard look at some of your bench options. Guys you normally wouldn’t play ahead of Pierce like Tony Pollard, Raheem Mostert, and Michael Carter are all players I like more than Pierce this week.

RB Rachaad White, TB (Wk. 8: vs. Bal.): White is playing just enough over the last month to give you hope that he’s going to develop some standalone value, but not quite enough that you’d feel comfortable starting him in any lineups. The rookie has played 38% or more of the offensive snaps in 3 of the last 4 games and had at least 8 opportunities (carries + targets) in all 4, but he’s averaged just 8.3 PPR points per game in that span. The Ravens have been just a middling RB defense, allowing the 16^th-most RB points per game and ranking 23^rd in run defense DVOA, but I’m not willing to count on a breakout game from White in this matchup. I think the Bucs would be better served by leaning on their proven stars – Fournette, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin – to try and right the ship for this struggling offense.

RB Keaontay Ingram, ARI (Wk. 8: @Min.): Ingram is only worth any consideration if James Conner remains sidelined this week. Conner is practicing in a limited capacity this week but is still listed as questionable. Ingram found the end zone last week (and had a second TD overturned on replay review) and finished the week as the RB25, but he was on the field for less than 30% of the offensive snaps and was very inefficient as a runner. Ingram totaled just 14 rushing yards on 9 carries and gets a similar matchup this week (New Orleans ranks 19^th in run defense DVOA, and Minnesota ranks 21^st). If you start Ingram, you’re mostly just hoping he gets in the end zone again. Eno Benjamin is the Cardinals' back to start if Conner is out another week.

WR Romeo Doubs, GB (Wk. 8: @Buf.): Doubs continued to play a full-time role in week 7, but he was targeted just 4 times and didn’t catch any of them in a game where he and Aaron Rodgers just weren’t connecting, and some comments by Rodgers on Pat McAfee’s show on Tuesday seemed to put most of the blame on the rookie. Rodgers didn’t call out Doubs by name, but he said, “Guys who are making too many mistakes, shouldn’t be playing. Gotta start cutting some reps. Maybe guys who aren’t playing, maybe give them a chance.” Doubs was credited with two drops in the game and had another target fall incomplete when he and his QB were clearly not on the same page about where he should be. The Packers will probably have no choice but to throw a bunch this week as double-digit underdogs in Buffalo, and the team’s WR1 Allen Lazard may miss this game, but that may not be enough to protect Doubs against losing reps. Christian Watson appears to be on track to return this week, and his skill set makes him a natural replacement for Lazard. Don’t be surprised if Doubs starts losing reps this week to Amari Rodgers and/or Samori Toure. I’d be very hesitant to trust Doubs this week.

WR Drake London, ATL (Wk. 8: vs. Car.): The Falcons’ die-hard commitment to running the ball that is so positive for Tyler Allgeier in week 8 is also killing the value of their number 1 receiver. The Falcons have thrown the ball more than 20 times just once in the last 5 weeks. London has a 27.5% target share in that span, but it’s amounted to just 2.6 receptions and 31 yards per game. The Panthers have allowed the 9^th-most WR points per game, but if you start London against them, you do so at your own risk. He should be viewed as a WR4 bye week fill-in player for now.

WR Alec Pierce, IND (Wk. 8: vs. Was.): Pierce’s playing time continued to climb in week 7, as he reached a season-high 96% route participation rate against the Titans, but the targets haven’t increased along with it. Instead, Parris Campbell has seen a jump in targets, with at least 11 passes coming his way in each of the last two weeks. Pierce’s targets have consistently been deeper downfield (12.0 aDOT for the season compared to 5.1 for Campbell), so he can do damage on fewer targets, but the Colts’ changing of the guard at QB could derail Pierce’s season. Matt Ryan was averaging 42 pass attempts per game for the year. With the switch to Sam Ehlinger, I’d expect that team number to be closer to 25-30 attempts per game going forward. That lower volume should be a downgrade for all the Colts’ pass-catchers. Pierce is too risky to start in Ehlinger’s first game under center, even in a good matchup against the Commanders (29^th in pass defense DVOA).

WR Jahan Dotson, WAS (Wk. 8: @Ind.): Dotson is only borderline if he’s actually able to play this week, but I’d lean against playing him if that happens. He seems to be on the wrong side of questionable right now, but even if he plays, I’d expect him to be eased back into action after missing the last 3 games, and the Colts have allowed the 2^nd-fewest WR points per game. The switch to Taylor Heinicke at QB seemed to breathe new life into the passing game last Sunday, but Dotson likely won’t see the benefits of that this week.

TE Greg Dulcich, DEN (Wk. 8: @Jax.): The tight end position has been ugly beyond the top few guys this year (as it is every year), so Dulcich is worth at least some consideration if you’re hard up for a starter at the position this week, but I’d look at other options. The Jaguars have allowed just 2 tight ends to reach double-digit PPR points this year, and none to reach that mark in half-PPR. Only two tight ends have hauled in more than 3 receptions in a game against Jacksonville this season. If you get 8-10 PPR points out of Dulcich in this one you should take that with a smile on your face.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

QB Bailey Zappe, NE (Wk. 8: @NYJ): It appeared for a brief moment that Mac Jones may have been Wally Pipp-ed on Monday night. Mac Jones was pulled from the game after struggling to move the ball and throwing a costly interception early on against the Bears, and Bailey Zappe calmly entered and led the Pats on back-to-back TD drives to give them the lead. If he kept up that strong play, he’d likely be getting the nod again this week. Instead, the rookie turned the ball over 3 times and didn’t lead the team to another point after those first two drives as the Bears throttled New England. The Pats announced on Wednesday that Mac Jones will start this weekend against the Jets. There’s always the possibility that Zappe gets inserted mid-game again if Jones struggles, but you can’t put him in a lineup in hopes that happens.

RB Jaylen Warren, PIT (Wk. 8: @Phi.): Warren still has just one game of more than 5 touches behind Najee Harris. That shouldn’t change this week in a tough matchup with the Eagles. He remains just an upside handcuff.

RB James Cook, BUF (Wk. 8: vs. GB): Cook has totaled fewer than 3 touches and 10 scrimmage yards in half of Buffalo’s games this season and has yet to reach 10 PPR points in a game. He’s gotten some extra rushing opportunities late in blowout wins against the Titans and Steelers this year, and the Bills are 10.5-point favorites, but I think Green Bay will keep this game closer than Vegas predicts. I don’t expect more than a few touches for Cook.

RB Kyren Williams, LAR (Wk. 8: vs. SF): Kyren will be ready to return from IR soon, possibly even this week, but I’d take a wait-and-see approach with the rookie until we get a sense of what his role behind Darrell Henderson will look like. Malcolm Brown will likely serve as the RB2 this week even if Kyren is active, and the 49ers allow the 2^nd-fewest RB points per game.

RB Snoop Conner, JAX (Wk. 8: vs. Den.): Conner takes a step up the depth chart with James Robinson traded to the Jets, but that just means he’ll be active on Sundays instead of a healthy scratch. Travis Etienne remains the clear #1 back with JaMycal Hasty likely serving as the primary backup. Conner’s playing time is worth monitoring this week to see if he can leapfrog Hasty into the RB2 role. More than 70% of Hasty’s snaps this season have been on special teams, so it’s possible that’s the reason he’s been active ahead of Conner. Neither backup has standalone value right now, but it’s good to know who holds that role going forward.

WR Khalil Shakir, BUF (Wk. 8: vs. GB): With Isaiah McKenzie back in week 6, Shakir’s route participation rate dropped from 70% (week 5) down to 20% and he was targeted just twice in the team’s win over Kansas City. His only path to a useful fantasy day this week would be a splash play or two, which the Bills are very capable of, but you can’t count on it in such limited playing time.

WR David Bell, CLE (Wk. 8: vs. Cin.): Bell has seen his route participation rate reach above 60% in back-to-back games now, but he has just 3 total targets in those contests to show for it. There’s a small chance he sees an uptick in opportunities with safety valve David Njoku sidelined for a couple of weeks, but the Bengals allow the 5^th-fewest WR points per game.

WR Rashid Shaheed, NO (Wk. 8: vs. LV): You probably weren’t considering Shaheed in fantasy lineups anyway, but his NFL career has gotten off to a fun start in the last couple of weeks. He’s only been active for 2 games, and he’s played just 19 snaps and handled 2 offensive touches in those games, but those touches went for a 44-yard rushing TD and a 53-yard receiving TD. You can’t count on that kind of big play in weekly lineups, but it’s reminiscent of former Atlanta Falcons’ RB Antone Smith. Smith had a 10-game stretch in 2013 and 2014 where he handled a total of 24 offensive touches, and 8 of them went for more than 35 yards (7 of those for TDs). It would be really fun if Shaheed keeps this up.

WR Velus Jones Jr., CHI (Wk. 8: @Dal.): Jones has yet to play 20% of the offensive snaps in a game for Chicago, so his only hope for fantasy relevance would be to score a TD or break off a long play. The Cowboys have allowed just 6 plays of 25+ yards in their first 7 games.

TE Chig Okonkwo, TEN (Wk. 8: @Hou.): Okonkwo played a season-high 46% of the Titans’ offensive snaps in week 7, but he was targeted just once. He’s been targeted more than once just one time in 6 games. There’s no benefit to playing Okonkwo, unless it’s as a $200 dart throw in a Showdown contest.

TE Jelani Woods, IND (Wk. 8: vs. Was.): As I said with Alec Pierce above, I expect the switch to Sam Ehlinger at QB to be a downgrade for all Indy pass-catchers, and that includes Woods. I expect the Colts to go to a run-heavy approach, and that means even less volume to split between their 3-headed TE rotation. Woods is a bad bet this week even as a TD dart throw as the Commanders have allowed just 1 tight end score and allow the 4^th-fewest TE points per game.

TEs Jake Ferguson & Peyton Hendershot, DAL (Wk. 8: vs. Chi.): Hendershot got into the end zone in week 7, but he and Jake Ferguson combined for just 3 targets, 3 catches, and 12 yards, and neither rookie tight end was on the field for even 40% of the offensive snaps with Dalton Schultz back at close to full strength. Starting either of these guys is a hail mary no matter how good or bad of a tight end matchup they face.

TE Trey McBride, ARI (Wk. 8: @Min.): The Vikings allow the 6^th-most TE points per game, but McBride hasn’t been targeted since week 3. That’s all you need to know here.

TE Daniel Bellinger, NYG (Wk. 8: @Sea.): Bellinger picked a bad time to suffer a major injury. The Seahawks have been giving up big points to tight ends this year, but the Bellinger suffered a fractured eye socket last Sunday that will keep him sidelined indefinitely (possibly for the rest of the season).

Rookies on byes this week: RB Isiah Pacheco, KC, RB Isaiah Spiller, LAC, WR Skyy Moore, KC

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Raheem Blackshear, CAR (Wk. 8: vs. Atl.): Chuba Hubbard is nursing a sprained ankle and isn’t practicing as of Thursday. Blackshear would likely step into a primary passing down role if Hubbard were to sit. The running backs had a 24% target share from PJ Walker last week, and the Falcons allow the 9^th-most RB receptions per game. Game script should be negative this week with Atlanta favored by 6 points, so there’s some nice upside for Blackshear at a price tag of just $200 in DraftKings showdown contests.

WR Tyquan Thornton, NE (Wk. 8: @NYJ): You might not have realized it if you only looked at his 1-catch, 19-yard stat line from Monday night, but Tyquan Thornton is now a full-time player for the Patriots. The rookie played 85% of the team’s offensive snaps against the Bears despite Nelson Agholor being active, and his 5 targets were tied for 2^nd on the team. The Jets' secondary has been playing at a high level in the last few weeks as Sauce Gardner has emerged as a great young corner, but they haven’t seen a player with Thornton’s 4.2-speed. I like his chances to make a splash play in this game and think his price is right for GPP contests on DraftKings at just $3,800. He’s no more than an upside dart throw in deeper season-long leagues this week, but one that I think will pay off on Sunday.

WRs Christian Watson & Samori Toure, GB (Wk. 8: @Buf.): If you saw what I wrote about Romeo Doubs above, you know I think there’s an opportunity for some other WR on the Packers to step up this week. I mention Toure here only as a deep dart throw for Showdown contests (Priced at just $600 on DraftKings). I think Toure and Amari Rodgers have a chance to take some of Doubs’ reps this week, and Toure played a few more snaps than Rodgers last Sunday. Watson is practicing early in the week and seems to be in line to return from injury this week, and he could step into a big role if Allen Lazard is sidelined (Lazard is listed as ‘doubtful’). The Bills aren’t an easy matchup, allowing the 8^th-fewest WR points per game, but Green Bay will have to throw, and Watson costs close to the minimum on DraftKings this week ($3,200). He’s got a low floor, but a blowup game wouldn’t be shocking here. Since the start of last season in prime-time games, Aaron Rodgers is 6-0 with 16 TDs, 0 INTs, and 260 passing yards per game. I know the Bills are a daunting defense and the Packers are in a shambles in recent weeks, but I wouldn’t count out Rodgers and the Packers for the season just yet.

TE Cade Otton, TB (Wk. 8: vs. Bal.): Thursday players are usually not a great idea for fantasy lineups, but Otton has scored 10+ PPR points in both games where he’s played 80% or more of the offensive snaps, and Cam Brate will be sidelined again on Thursday night. Otton should be in line for 5-7 targets against a middling TE defense. The Ravens have allowed the 14^th-most TE points per game. I wouldn’t count on much more than 10 PPR points, but he should be right around that number again.

TE Isaiah Likely, BAL (Wk. 8: @TB): Keep a close eye on the status of Mark Andrews for Thursday night if you’re considering using Likely anywhere, but Andrews didn’t practice all week with a knee injury and his status is very up in the air for this game. Both Likely and Josh Oliver would see significant boosts in playing time if Andrews sits, and Likely is the one of that pair who has drawn the targets this season despite playing fewer snaps. Likely has played 40 fewer snaps than Oliver this season, but drawn 10 more targets, so he’s the guy I’d expect to get the biggest boost. The Bucs have allowed the 10^th-most TE points per game. I wouldn’t feel great about either backup tight end in a season-long format, but in DFS I’d much prefer to roll out Likely at $1,600 in a Showdown contest than his Bucs counterpart Cade Otton at $5,000. Otton is the better play in season-long leagues though.

UPDATE: Mark Andrews is ACTIVE for Thursday Night Football

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you pick up another big win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve made it through one bye week but getting through a second one could prove to be more of a challenge. The teams off this week contain some of the biggest names in fantasy football – the Bills, the Eagles, the Vikings, and the Rams all boast an elite wide receiver and multiple every-week fantasy starters. There is a plethora of injuries to key fantasy contributors again as well. You may have some work to do to round out your fantasy lineups this week, and you’re probably going to be considering some options that make you feel like vomiting. There’s bound to be at least one rookie you’re considering for a lineup. Luckily, I’m here as always to help break down what to expect from the rookies this week.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Any data on route participation, air yards, and other usage rates are per Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report on Pro Football Focus.

Let’s get into week 7…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

RB Breece Hall, NYJ (Wk. 7: @Den.): Zach Wilson’s return hasn’t spelled fantasy success for the Jets’ pass catchers, but it’s been great for Hall, who has finished as a top-6 PPR RB in each of the last two weeks and has now finished top-15 at the position in 5 straight weeks. The Broncos are a tougher matchup than he’s seen in recent weeks, but at 18^th in Football Outsiders’ run-defense DVOA they aren’t exactly a frightening matchup. The Broncos are also forced to start Brett Rypien at QB this week, so game script could be favorable for Breece once again. Treat Hall as a low-end RB1 this week.

RB Kenneth Walker III, SEA (Wk. 7: vs. LAC): Walker has run for 80+ yards and a touchdown in each of the last two weeks, and he gets a juicy matchup with the Chargers this Sunday. LA ranks 22^nd in run defense DVOA.They’ve also allowed 20+ PPR points to a running back in 3 of the last 4 weeks and 15+ in 4 out of 5. Walker still sees limited passing game involvement, so that 20+ number in PPR leagues may be a lofty goal, but KW3 should be a solid RB2 against a bad run defense this week in all formats.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

RB Dameon Pierce, HOU (Wk. 7: @LV): I still have concerns about Pierce getting usage in the passing game (Rex Burkhead has played 100% of the two-minute offense snaps and 93% of the long down & distance snaps for the season), but Pierce is handling almost all of the rushing work and is going to be a weekly RB2 in any weeks where the Texans don’t get blown out in the first half. The Raiders are 7-point favorites in this game, so there’s some risk of game script getting away from Houston, but I trust that Pierce will get enough opportunity to be useful against the Raiders’ middling run defense. Vegas ranks 15^th in run defense DVOA.

RB Brian Robinson Jr., WAS (Wk. 7: vs. GB): Robinson’s first two games have gone pretty much as expected. The Commanders have used him as an early down hammer in the run game, and he’s been an afterthought in the passing game. He managed to grind his way to 60 rushing yards last week, and a late TD pushed him up to a top-20 PPR finish for the week. The biggest takeaway for me was that Robinson handled nearly 60% of the team's rushing attempts. The team is making a point to get him the football, and this week he faces a defense that ranks 32^nd in run defense DVOA. Robinson should be more efficient running the ball this week against that unit, so there’s a lot of upside for him if the Commanders can keep this game competitive and keep feeding him the football. Be warned that Robinson’s usage is game-script dependent. He isn’t going to be used in clear passing situations, so if you think Green Bay has a bounce-back game and wins easily, you shouldn’t start Robinson. I think this game stays close enough that the Commanders’ rookie back is a top-20 RB option for me.

WR Romeo Doubs, GB (Wk. 7: @Was.): The Packers’ offense has been out of sorts in recent weeks, but that’s no reason to shy away from starting Doubs this week. Romeo has earned 8+ targets in 3 of his past 4 games, Christian Watson and Randall Cobb are out this week, and the Commanders allow the 5^th-most WR points per game. The production has been inconsistent for Doubs, but he should see solid volume in a plus matchup. I’d view him as a WR2 this week.

WR Drake London, ATL (Wk. 7: @Cin.): London’s biggest weekly concern is team passing volume. He’s had at least a 29% target share and 27% air yardage share each and every week, but the Falcons have averaged just 21 pass attempts per game in the last 5 weeks. The biggest key for London will be the Falcons playing from behind and needing to throw the ball more often. I actually think that happens here. The Bengals’ offense has been due for a breakout game for weeks, and the Falcons are the worst defense they’ve faced this season (29^th in total defense DVOA). I think the Bengals put up points, and Atlanta is forced to throw 30+ times for the first time since week 1. The matchup isn’t ideal against a decent Bengals’ defense, but with so many top WRs off this week, London is still a fringe WR2.

WR Alec Pierce, IND (Wk. 7: @Ten.): Pierce has seen his playing time jump in recent weeks, but that jump coincided with injury absences for Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines. Don’t be shocked if he’s back in the 45-50% snap range this week with both backs expected back, but Pierce was producing even before the playing time increase in the last two games. He’s caught for at least 60 yards in 4 straight contests, and the Titans rank 29^th in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 2^nd-most WR points per game. Pierce should still have a nice floor as a low end WR3 even if his snaps get scaled back, and he’s got a nice ceiling in a great matchup if those increased snaps continue.

WR George Pickens, PIT (Wk. 7: @Mia.): Pickens has earned 6+ targets in each of the last 4 games, and he gets Kenny Pickett back at QB this week. The Dolphins allow the 8^th-most WR points per game and rank 31^st in pass defense DVOA, and their best corner Xavien Howard will match up mostly with Diontae Johnson. Everything is shaping up for a strong showing for Pickens on Sunday. He’s a solid WR3 option this week.

WR Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG (Wk. 7: @Jax.): Robinson was eased back into action in his first game since week 1, playing just 15 offensive snaps, but he was targeted on 35% of his routes run and finished the day with a 3-37-1 line. His playing time should go way up this week and the Giants are desperate for pass-catching help. Robinson should spend most of his time in the slot, matched up with Darious Williams, who has a PFF coverage grade of just 41.9 this season (100^th out of 108 qualified CBs). I expect 6+ targets this week. Robinson should be a fine floor WR3 play in PPR leagues, with upside for more if the individual matchup is as fruitful as it looks on paper.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

QB Kenny Pickett, PIT (Wk. 7: @Mia.): Pickett’s a fine option this week if you’re looking for a QB2, but I’d probably look elsewhere for a starter in 1-QB formats. The matchup may look enticing on paper. The Dolphins have allowed the 6^th-most QB points per game and as I mentioned with Pickens Miami ranks 31^st in pass defense DVOA, but when you look at what QBs they’ve faced those ranks look like they may be skewed by a tough QB schedule. The Phins have faced 3 QBs currently in the top-5 in fantasy points this season – Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Joe Burrow. Those 3 QBs averaged 30 fantasy points against the Dolphins. The other 3 QBs they’ve faced (Mac Jones, Kirk Cousins and Zach Wilson) have averaged just 13.5 fantasy points in those games. Pickett probably fits in better with that second group than the first one. There are 26 QBs who average more than 13.5 fantasy points per game so far this season.

QB Bailey Zappe, NE (Wk. 7: vs. Chi.): It looks like Mac Jones is going to be able to return on Monday night to face the Bears, but if he isn’t and Zappe is under center again, I’d treat him as a mid-range QB2. The Bears are much worse against the run than the pass (27^th in run defense DVOA, 14^th in pass defense DVOA), and the Pats will be happy to run it down their throats with Rhamondre and Damien Harris. Anything over 25 passing attempts for Zappe or Mac would be a bonus. Either QB would likely need to hit their ceiling efficiency to crack the top-12 QBs for the week.

RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL (Wk. 7: @Cin.): Allgeier has played an expanded role in each of the last two weeks with Cordarrelle Patterson sidelined, but he’s finished with just 4.5 and 5.1 PPR points in those two contests against tough run defenses and gets a tough matchup again this week with the Bengals. Allgeier hasn’t been involved in the passing game (just 2 total targets on the year), and the Bengals have allowed the 7^th-fewest RB points per game. Cincy has only allowed 60+ rushing yards to two backs all season, and only 1 running back rushing TD. Caleb Huntley has been more impressive than Allgeier on limited opportunities, so there’s no guarantee that Tyler keeps playing more than half the snaps. If you start Allgeier you’re crossing your fingers that he manages to fall into the end zone.

WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 7: @Den.): It may seem like a good thing for Wilson that the Jets will play without Elijah Moore this week, but Moore’s absence likely solidifies that it will be Wilson who operates as the Jets’ WR1 and draws the coverage of Patrick Surtain II. The Broncos have held opposing WRs to the 2^nd-fewest fantasy points per game this year, and they’ve been especially effective against the top options on those teams. Surtain helped limit Mike Williams to 2-17, Michael Pittman Jr. to 5-59, and DK Metcalf to 7-36. The Jets are already struggling to put up aerial production with Zach Wilson under center. Wilson averages just 14 completions and 191 passing yards per game through 3 games, and I wouldn’t expect a substantial change this week against a tough Broncos’ secondary. Garrett Wilson is a contrarian DFS option and dicey WR4 this week.

WR Tyquan Thornton, NE (Wk. 7: vs. Chi.): Thornton made a big impact in his second game of the season last week, scoring 2 TDs on 4 catches and 3 rushing attempts, but his playing time may have been boosted by injuries to Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne. Both players practiced in a limited capacity on Friday and are questionable for this game. The Patriots are 8-point favorites this week, and the Bears are abysmal against the run, so Thornton likely will need to make a splash play or two on limited opportunities in a run-heavy game plan. He has the wheels to score on almost any play, but he’s an upside dart throw with a low floor against a Chicago defense that allows the 4^th-fewest WR points per game.

WR Jahan Dotson, WAS (Wk. 7: vs. GB): Dotson is listed as questionable for this week, but I’d guess he’s on the wrong side of that tag after tweaking his hamstring again in practice Thursday. The Packers have been much more vulnerable on the ground than through the air. They allow just the 7^th-fewest WR points per game and rank 9^th in pass defense DVOA. If Dotson is able to play, I’d view him as a WR4 this week.

TE Daniel Bellinger, NYG (Wk. 7: @Jax.): Bellinger has been a pleasant surprise this season for the Giants, ranking as the TE13 in PPR points per game so far this year, and he played his highest snap share of the season last weekend (94%). It’s an exciting development for those who drafted Bellinger in dynasty leagues or got him late in deep redraft leagues, but this isn’t a great week to plug him in as your TE1. The Jaguars have allowed the 11^th-fewest TE points per game and only 1 TD to the position. Bellinger hasn’t topped 40 yards in any game this season, so he needs a TD to return value. I also worry that his snap share last week could be a bit of a mirage. Backup Tanner Hudson was held out of practice with an illness on Thursday and Friday last week before playing only 12% of the snaps in the game Sunday. He’d played 35%+ of the snaps in each of the 4 games prior to week 6. If his snaps come back up this week, it will likely be at Bellinger’s expense. Bellinger is still the clear TE1 here, but he’s just a high-end TE2 in a tougher matchup this week.

TE Greg Dulcich, DEN (Wk. 7: vs. NYJ): Dulcich played a full-time role in his NFL debut and ran a route on about two-thirds of the team's passing dropbacks on Monday night against the Chargers. He scored a long TD and finished as the TE9 for the week, and this week he faces a Jets’ defense that’s only a middling unit against TEs (17^th-most TE points per game allowed). Unfortunately, it’s a big question what kind of quarterback play he’ll get this week with Brett Rypien starting in place of an injured Russell Wilson. Rypien has made just 1 NFL start in his career (oddly enough, it was against the Jets). It’s not a big sample size, but in that game, he was willing to push the ball down the field to his perimeter wide receivers. He finished with 242 yards, 2 TDs, and 3 INTs. This year’s version of the Jets’ defense is much better than the one Rypien faced the first time around. There’s too much uncertainty in what we’ll see from Rypien for me to confidently start Dulcichas a TE1 this week.

TE Cade Otton, TB (Wk. 7: @Car.): Cam Brate has been ruled out for week 7 with a neck injury, so Otton should serve as the full-time tight end against the Panthers. Otton drew 7 targets the last time Brate missed a game in week 5, but I expect the Bucs to play from ahead for most of this game and don’t expect nearly the same passing volume in this one. Tom Brady threw the ball 52 times in that week 5 contest. The Panthers also have defended the TE position well, allowing just the 8^th-fewest points per game to the position. There’s upside in any game where Otton plays a full-time role with Brady under center, but I’d view him as a mid-range TE2 this week.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

QB Skylar Thompson, MIA (Wk. 7: vs. Pit.): Tua is practicing this week and is expected to make the start against the Steelers with Teddy Bridgewater back to serving as the backup. Thompson looked good early on Sunday against the Dolphins, but he suffered a nasty injury to his thumb on his throwing hand that cut his day short. Hopefully, he gets another chance to play at some point.

QB Sam Howell, WAS (Wk. 7: vs. GB): Staring QB Carson Wentz was placed on IR this week with a thumb injury, but the Commanders will turn to Taylor Heinicke to start in his absence rather than the rookie Howell. Keep tabs on this situation…if Heinicke performs poorly it could open the door for Howell to get on the field, but there’s no reason to consider him this week.

RB Jaylen Warren, PIT (Wk. 7: @Mia.): Najee Harris continued to be his usual, inefficient self last week, totaling 49 scrimmage yards on 16 touches, but Warren handled just 2 carries and zero targets in the game. He’s touched the ball more than 5 times just once this season. It’s impossible to rely on him in starting lineups until his touches start to increase or Najee gets a week off.

RB Isiah Pacheco, KC (Wk. 7: @SF): The trend has continued to look the same for Pacheco. When the Chiefs win in a romp, he gets late playing time. When the game is competitive, he only gets a few opportunities. He’s yet to handle more than 4 touches in a game where the Chiefs didn’t win by double-digits. Kansas City is just a 1-point favorite this week, and the 49ers are the best team in the NFL in run defense DVOA.

RB Tyrion Davis-Price, SF (Wk. 7: vs. KC): TDP was activated from IR last week, and there was a chance for his role to grow this week after Jeff Wilson Jr. was mostly ineffective against Atlanta, but the 49ers dumped cold water on that when they added Christian McCaffrey in a trade on Thursday. I’d expect McCaffrey to be able to play at least a part-time role this week, and that leaves nothing for Davis-Price behind CMC and Wilson. If McCaffrey somehow isn’t ready to play this week, Davis-Price is no more than an upside dart throw in DFS showdown contests.

RBs Kevin Harris & Pierre Strong, NE (Wk. 7: vs. Chi.): Rhamondre Stevenson handled 85% of the backfield touches in week 6 with Damien Harris sidelined. The two rookie backs did play a little bit, but neither recorded a single touch until the Pats were up by 3 scores in the third quarter. There isn’t enough here for either guy to be relevant unless Rhamondre gets hurt, and it also appears that Damien Harris will return this week.

RB Trestan Ebner, CHI (Wk. 7: @NE): Ebner has been an afterthought for the Bears since Khalil Herbert returned from injury in week 5. He’s played just 4 total offensive snaps in the last two weeks.

WR Skyy Moore, KC (Wk. 7: @SF): Moore’s playing time seemed to be headed in the right direction, but he’s plateaued at about 30% of the team's offensive snaps in the last few weeks. He may eventually gain more traction in this offense, but a 30% role against a defense that allows the 5^th-fewest WR points per game isn’t the profile of a player you want to start.

WR Kyle Philips, TEN (Wk. 7: vs. Ind.): Philips showed out in week 1 as the Titans’ starting slot wide receiver, but he was hurt in week 2 and has been slow to get his playing time back after returning in week 4. He played just 2 snaps in his first game back, and 18 snaps in week 5 ahead of the team bye last week. He could see those snaps take another step forward this week, but the Colts have allowed the fewest PPR points per game to WRs lined up in the slot per Sports Info Solutions. It’s worth monitoring his playing time with Treylon Burks still on IR, but don’t start Philips anywhere this week.

WR David Bell, CLE (Wk. 7: @Bal.): Bell saw a season-high in snaps and route participation rate in week 6 with the Browns playing from behind by multiple scores for much of the game, but it resulted in just 2 targets and 1 catch for 13 yards. Nothing has changed for Bell going forward.

WR Velus Jones Jr., CHI (Wk. 7: @NE): Jones is slowly getting more integrated into the offense, but he was at just 12 offensive snaps in his 3^rd game of the season, and he muffed a punt in that game. He’s playing a limited role in an offense that ranks 28^th in yards and 31^st in points in the NFL.

WR Jalen Tolbert, DAL (Wk. 7: vs. Det.): Tolbert will probably be inactive for the 6^th time in 7 games.

WR Christian Watson, GB (Wk. 7: @Was.): In case you missed the news, Watson has been ruled out for week 7 with injury.

TEs Isaiah Likely and Charlie Kolar, BAL (Wk. 7: vs. Cle.): I included Kolar this week because he’s been cleared for practice and may be close to returning from IR. I wouldn’t expect him to step into a significant role right away with Mark Andrews and Likely pretty deeply cemented as the TE1 and TE2 in front of him. He may eventually take some of Likely’s role, but it’s a role that hasn’t made Likely a viable fantasy option. Likely has totaled just 6 targets in the last two weeks with Rashod Bateman sidelined. Mark Andrews caught a questionable tag this week with a knee injury. If Andrews sits, Likely becomes a fringe TE1, and Kolar a DFS dart throw (assuming he’s active).

TE Jake Ferguson& Peyton Hendershot, DAL (Wk. 7: vs. Det.): The matchup here is good – Detroit allows the 8^th-most TE points per game – but it appears that Dalton Schultz will return this week after being a surprise inactive in week 6 with a knee injury. Schultz has practiced in full all week and gets back his QB in Dak Prescott as well. If Schultz plays, Ferguson and Hendershot will be afterthoughts. If Schultz were to sit again, they’d split the TE role evenly. In that scenario, I wouldn’t want to start either player.

TE Chig Okonkwo, TEN (Wk. 7: vs. Ind.): Okonkwo has yet to play more than 16 offensive snaps in any game this season. The Colts do allow the 7^th-most TE points per game, so there’s maybe some hope for the rookie as a DFS dart throw, but Okonkwo has a low ceiling and a non-existent floor.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Rachaad White, TB (Wk. 7: @Car.): The Panthers have essentially waved the white flag on this season after trading away Robbie Anderson and Christian McCaffrey in the last week. The Bucs enter the weekend as 2-touchdown favorites against those Panthers, and that should open the door for some garbage time work for Rachaad White. Rachaad has already handled 7+ touches in each of the last 3 games, but if this game goes the way Vegas expects it to that should rise into the 12-15 range against Carolina. I think White is an upside RB3 in what should be a blowout win for the Bucs.

RB Isaiah Spiller, LAC (Wk. 7: @Sea.): It’s been reported that Spiller will be active for the first time all year on Sunday with Joshua Kelley placed on IR, and it’s possible he sees some work in his debut. Austin Ekeler is still the clear lead back here, but the Chargers have had an average of 11.5 non-Ekeler backfield touches per game this year split between Kelley and Sony Michel. Kelley is out, and Michel has been ineffective, averaging just 3.4 yards per touch. This may be Spiller’s best opportunity to carve out his role as the complement to Ekeler. Seattle is 21^st in run defense DVOA and has allowed the 9^th-most RB points per game. I mention Spiller here mostly as a stash in deeper leagues, but he costs just $200 in DraftKings showdown contests.

RB Raheem Blackshear, CAR (Wk. 7: vs. TB): I mention Blackshear here as a stash option in the deepest of PPR leagues. He’s a small receiving back who was a UDFA out of Virginia Tech. Blackshear should now be active on game days with McCaffrey traded away, but I’d expect that he’ll start out behind both D’onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard on the depth chart. Hubbard has struggled as a receiver at the NFL level, but the Panthers have shown a continued willingness to use him in a pass-catching despite the struggles. Keep an eye on what the backfield usage looks like this week, but none of the RBs in Carolina are great options against a Tampa defense that allows the fewest RB points per game.

RB Kyren Williams, LAR (Wk. 7: Bye): The Rams are on a bye this week, so it might be your last chance to grab Kyren for free if he’s still available in deeper leagues. Cam Akers was away from the team last week due to frustration with his role/usage, and the Rams are making efforts to trade him away. That will leave just Darrell Henderson, Malcolm Brown, and Kyren as available running backs for the Rams. Henderson will be the RB1, but the Rams had plans for Williams to contribute on offense this year before his injury hit, and he should have a role as a receiving back behind Henderson after the bye. One thing to be aware of here though…the Rams have targeted a running back on just 4 of their 55 third-down pass attempts this season. Kyren isn’t a priority stash, but he’s worth consideration if you’re desperate for running back help in PPR leagues.

WR Jameson Williams, DET (Wk. 7: @Dal.): Williams isn’t going to be activated this week, but he shouldn’t be on waivers in most leagues, especially those with an IR slot available. Jameson has league-winner upside once he’s able to get on the field. He has 4.3-second speed and put up over 1,500 yards and 15 TDs at Alabama last season. He’ll immediately be a top-2 wide receiver on the Lions along with Amon-Ra St. Brown once he’s able to play. DJ Chark going on IR this week has cleared a runway to immediate playing time for Williams when he’s ready to go.

TE Jelani Woods, IND (Wk. 7: @Ten.): Woods still isn’t playing a large portion of the snaps for Indy, but he’s seen his snaps and route participation rate steadily go up as the season’s gone on, and ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reported that he expects the Colts to look to get him more involved going forward. Woods has been the target on 21% of the Colts’ pass attempts into the end zone this year, and the Titans gave up two tight end scores when they faced the Colts in week 4. Woods is by no means a top-10 TE option this week since he plays less than half of the offensive snaps, but he’s got upside for DFS or if you’re desperate in season-long leagues.

TE Cole Turner, WAS (Wk. 7: vs. GB):I mention Turner here because Logan Thomas is already ruled out for this week and John Bates is questionable to play after injuring his hamstring in pre-game warmups last week. Turner was targeted just twice in that game last week, but he was on the field for 93% of the Commanders’ offensive plays. He’s going to play a full-time role if Bates is out, and if you’re looking for a waiver wire TE in deeper leagues, anyone with a pulse is worth consideration. That’s pretty much all Turner is this week.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you pick up another big win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.