Welcome back to the Rookie Report! This week is Thanksgiving, a time for feasts, family, and football, but it’s also a tricky week to manage lineups due to games in time slots that are out of the ordinary. There are four island games across Thursday and Friday, so make sure you know who plays at what times and set lineups accordingly. You don’t want to be busy with holiday festivities and forget to check if a player like De’Von Achane, Geno Smith, or AJ Dillon is good to go. This is the stretch run of the fantasy season with just 3 regular season weeks left, so you don’t want to make a crucial mistake and leave an injured player in the lineup Thursday or Friday, and you don’t want to leave those guys in the flex spots either if you have other guys who are questionable. The way injuries have gone this season, you’d be smart to give yourself as much lineup flexibility as possible.
Week 11 got started last Thursday with a couple of massive additions to the injury report, as Joe Burrow and Mark Andrews each went down with season-ending injuries, and it didn’t end there. De’Von Achane, Aaron Jones, Kenneth Walker III, D’Onta Foreman, Cooper Kupp, Darius Slayton, and Geno Smith all exited their games with injuries on Sunday. It did end up being another compelling week of close games (8 games decided by one score), but the injuries certainly put a damper on it for fantasy players. The scheduling gods were kind this week by giving us a full 16-game slate before returning to byes in week 13, but we may need that full slate to find necessary injury replacements.
Luckily, I’m here to help you identify some rookies you can use as those helpful replacements that you’ll be thankful for this week.
A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
Let’s get into week 12…
Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:
QB CJ Stroud, HOU (Wk. 12: vs. Jax.): Stroud threw more interceptions last week than he had in his first 9 games combined, but that didn’t stop him from finishing the week just barely outside the top-12 of the position at QB13. He’s been on a tear in recent weeks, throwing for over 330 yards in 3 straight games, and this week he faces off with a Jacksonville defense that has allowed the 6th-most QB points per game. The Jaguars have feasted on bad QBs but have allowed 20+ fantasy points to all of the good ones they’ve faced, including Stroud in week 3. Look for Stroud to make another run at 300+ yards, and if he pairs that with multiple TDs he should finish as a top-10 QB for the week.
RB Jahmyr Gibbs, DET (Wk. 12: vs. GB): The return of David Montgomery hasn’t slowed down Gibbs. He’s now rattled off 4 consecutive top-3 fantasy performances, 2 of which were with Montgomery in the lineup. Green Bay isn’t a matchup to be afraid of this week. The Packers allow the 11th-most RB points per game, and Detroit is a touchdown favorite on Turkey Day with one of the highest implied point totals of the week (27.5 points). He can’t be on your bench with the way he’s playing.
RB Bijan Robinson, ATL (Wk. 12: vs.NO): Arthur Smith finally capitulated to outside complaints about Bijan’s usage in the Falcons’ last game, and called 22 rushes for him against the Cardinals, including a couple carries from inside the 10-yard line. I don’t know if he’ll get back to 20+ carries again this week, but he’ll almost certainly approach 20 total touches. The matchup looks tough on paper. The Saints allow just the 4th-fewest RB points per game, but they also rank just 19th in run defense DVOA. New Orleans’ strong ranking in fantasy points allowed is due to limiting receiving production, which is usually a strength of Bijan’s game. They’ve allowed the 4th-fewest receptions and 3rd-fewest receiving yards per game to the position. I’m expecting the switch back to Desmond Ridder to help Robinson get back on track in that area despite the matchup. With Ridder at QB, Bijan has averaged 7.1 PPR points per game from just his receiving work. That number was at 1.6 per game with Taylor Heinicke. The ceiling hasn’t been what we’ve hoped for from Bijan, but he’s a solid RB2 for this week.
WR Puka Nacua, LAR (Wk. 12: @Ari.): Nacua hasn’t shown quite the same consistent ceiling in recent weeks since Cooper Kupp returned from IR, but we may see the big ceiling again after Kupp suffered an ankle injury last Sunday against Seattle. Puka averaged 19 fantasy points per game while Kupp was on IR but has averaged just 11.2 per game since his return, hitting 19 or more points just once with him active. Puka was still the WR23 in that span in points per game, but he could go nuclear in a good matchup with the Cardinals if Kupp is out Sunday. Arizona has allowed the 13th-most WR points per game and ranks 30th in FTN’s pass defense DVOA on throws to the opposing WR1, and Nacua has averaged 13 targets per game without Kupp active. He’s got top-10 upside this week.
WR Tank Dell, HOU (Wk. 12: vs. Jax.): Dell has been the biggest beneficiary of CJ Stroud’s recent hot streak, earning 10+ targets in each of the last 3 games and putting up finishes of WR1, WR11, and WR3 in the process. So far, it’s looked like the perfect marriage of player to scheme and QB, and I wouldn’t count on things slowing down this week. Dell has ranked in the top-20 in the league in fantasy points per route run against zone coverage, and the Jaguars play zone at a top-5 rate. Dell should be locked into your starting lineups again.
TE Dalton Kincaid, BUF (Wk. 12: @Phi.): Kincaid last Sunday posted his worst fantasy day since Dawson Knox got hurt, but it was still good enough for a TE9 finish for the week. He’s rattled off 5-straight TE1 performances and gets to face a Philly defense that has allowed the 7th-most points per game to the position and ranks dead last in pass defense DVOA on throws to tight ends. This is a game where Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis might get some squeaky wheel treatment, but you can’t sit a guy who’s basically been a slam dunk top-10 TE and has a great matchup.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:
RB Zach Charbonnet, SEA (Wk. 12: vs. SF): Charbonnet had been out-snapping Kenneth Walker III for 3 straight games headed into last week, but Walker had still been seeing the bulk of the rushing attempts. That changed last weekend with Walker suffering an oblique injury early on against the Rams. Charbonnet served as the bell cow after the injury, playing 85% of the snaps and handling 15 carries and 6 targets. I don’t expect Walker to be able to play this Thursday night with the quick turnaround, so Charbs should be in line for another huge workload, but the matchup isn’t a great one. The 49ers allow the 7th-fewest RB points per game and have allowed an opposing back to hit 10+ points in just 4 of their 10 games this season. Despite the tough matchup, Charbonnet will see a big workload and should be treated as a back end RB2 this week.
RB Keaton Mitchell, BAL (Wk. 12: @LAC): Mitchell didn’t make any explosive plays in week 11 like he had the two weeks prior, but he played his highest snap share of the season and cut further into Justice Hill’s already diminishing role. Mitchell turned 9 touches in that game into 41 yards. Gus Edwards still led the backfield with 14 touches, but Hill logged just 2. I’d expect Mitchell’s role to continue to grow, and the Chargers’ defense has been carved up by running backs in the passing game. They’ve allowed the 2nd-most receptions and 2nd-most receiving yards per game to opposing running backs, and Gus Edwards has been targeted just 10 times all year. Mitchell is a better option in that arena. He’s still a risky option due to his inconsistent workload, but this is a matchup with a lot of upside, especially in PPR leagues.
WR Zay Flowers, BAL (Wk. 12: @LAC): Flowers’ volume in recent weeks hasn’t inspired much confidence in him from fantasy managers. He’s averaged just over 6 and a half targets per game for the season, but in the last 3 weeks, he’s posted target totals of 1, 6 and 4. Don’t press the panic button. He’s still been at 50+ scrimmage yards in each of the last two weeks, gets a perfect ‘get right’ matchup this weekend, and should see a bump in target share going forward with Mark Andrews out. Zay would’ve scored a 68-yard touchdown last week if not for a soft holding call against Odell Beckham Jr., and he’ll get another chance to make big plays this week against a failing Chargers’ defense. The Chargers have been bleeding points to receivers, coughing up the 2nd-most points per game to the position. They also rank 29th in pass defense DVOA on throws to the opposing WR1 and 28th in that stat on deep balls. Losing Joey Bosa’s pass rushing to injury won’t help the Chargers stop those deep connections either. I list Flowers on the borderline as a very conservative estimate for him this week because of his lower recent production, but make no mistake, he’s got the upside for a Tank Dell-like blowup game in this matchup.
WR Josh Downs, IND (Wk. 12: vs. TB): During the Colts’ bye last week, we learned that the knee injury Downs left with in week 9 was actually just a flare up of an injury suffered in OTAs that he’s been playing through all season. Indy limited his workload against the Patriots ahead of the bye, but Downs hasn’t sounded too concerned about the injury himself. After a week off, I’d expect him to play closer to his normal complement of snaps this weekend against Tampa. The Bucs have been shredded by opposing receivers this year. They’ve allowed the 4th-most points per game to the position, and they’ve ceded 60+ receiving yards to 8 different receivers in their last 4 games. If Downs is back to a full-time role, he should have a great chance of adding his name to that 60+-yard list. Prior to aggravating the injury in week 9, Downs had averaged nearly 9 targets per game in the full games he’d played with Gardner Minshew at QB. I’d expect that connection to blossom again if Downs is close to full strength. I’d treat him as a PPR WR3 option this week.
WR Jayden Reed, GB (Wk. 12: @Det.): If you haven’t been paying close attention to the Packers (and why would you?), you might not have noticed that Reed has emerged as the best fantasy asset in this offense. He ran more routes than Romeo Doubs on Sunday, and he logged his second consecutive top-12 PPR performance in the process. The Packers have been creative at getting the ball into his hands (he tallied 3 rushing attempts to go along with 6 targets in week 11), and he’s made the most of his opportunities – his 9.1 yards per target ranks 16th among wide receivers with at least 40 targets and he’s scored 5 total touchdowns. The Lions allow the 12th-most WR points per game and the Packers should be throwing as 7.5-point underdogs. Reed should be treated as an upside WR3 in this matchup.
WR Jordan Addison, MIN (Wk. 12: vs. Chi.): Addison has now played 3 games with Joshua Dobbs at QB (counting the one that Jaren Hall started), and the results have been ok, but not as great as we’d hope for. He’s put up lines of 5-52, 4-69, and 3-44 on 7, 7, and 6 targets respectively, but this week he gets a better matchup than he’s faced in any of those games. The Bears allow 3 more WR points per game than any of the last 3 opponents Addison faced. The Bears rank 27th in pass defense DVOA and rank 30th in that stat on deep pass attempts. Half of Addison’s 12 longest receptions of the season have come in the last 3 games with Joshua Dobbs. It’s only a matter of time before the two connect for a TD. I like Addison as a WR3 option this week assuming Justin Jefferson is not activated from IR. If JJ returns, I’d bump Addison down to a WR4 option.
WR Demario Douglas, NE (Wk. 12: @NYG): Douglas has finished as a top-30 receiver in 3 of his last 4 games, even as the Patriots’ offense has sputtered to just 40 total points in their last 3 games. Douglas has emerged as the clear WR1 in this offense that has struggled to find answers anywhere else, including at QB, where Bill Belichick has declined to name a starter yet for this Sunday. Demario has been targeted 23 times in the last 3 games, and I don’t expect much to change there this week no matter if it’s Mac Jones or Bailey Zappe throwing him the ball. The Giants allow the 5th-most WR points per game and rank 25th in pass defense DVOA on throws to the opposing WR1. The Patriots’ struggles on offense mean a TD will be hard to count on here, but volume should make Douglas a reasonable WR3/4 option once again this week.
TE Sam LaPorta, DET (Wk. 12: @GB): LaPorta posted his worst fantasy game of the season last weekend, and he’s now logged back-to-back games with single-digit PPR points for the first time all year. Last week’s game was especially frustrating as he earned just 5 targets despite playing in a trailing game script with the Lions throwing. Jahmyr Gibbs has been playing a bigger role and Jameson Williams is starting to emerge, siphoning some receiving work from LaPorta in the process, but the biggest concern has been the lack of chunk plays. LaPorta has averaged 10 yards per catch or fewer in 5 straight games and hasn’t pulled in a reception of 20+ yards in any of those games. He’d hauled in at least one catch of 30+ yards in each of the 3 games prior to that stretch. If the big plays aren’t going to be there, he becomes more volume dependent, and that volume has been inconsistent. I do like his chances to get back into the top-12 this week against a Green Bay defense that ranks 25th in pass defense DVOA on throws to tight ends and gave up a 4-56 line to LaPorta in the first meeting this year. LaPorta still has a ceiling worth chasing in a good matchup like this. He’s posted 3 top-5 finishes for the year.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:
QB Will Levis, TEN (Wk. 12: vs. Car.): At least we still have that 4 TD game against Atlanta - things have been quite a bit different for Levis in the 3 games he’s played since his sensational debut performance. He padded his numbers last Sunday with a couple garbage time TDs, but Levis has finished as the QB21, QB26, and QB20 over the last 3 weeks. The Titans are favored to win this week against the lowly Panthers, but Carolina is a team that’s easier to attack on the ground than through the air. The Panthers rank 15th in pass defense DVOA, and dead last in run defense DVOA. They’ve also allowed the 8th-fewest QB points per game, as 6 of the 10 QBs they’ve faced threw for fewer than 200 yards against them. I expect the Titans’ game plan to rely on Derrick Henry. There is an upside case to start Levis as a back end QB2 this week, especially in leagues where you get bonus points for long completions. More than 20% of Levis’ pass attempts this year have been deep balls, and the Panthers rank just 25th in pass defense DVOA on deep throws. They also rank 26th in DVOA on throws to the opposing WR1, so Levis should have success targeting DeAndre Hopkins when he tries it.
RB De’Von Achane, MIA (Wk. 12: @NYJ): Achane returned last weekend from a stint on IR, only to immediately injure the same knee again after handling just two touches against the Raiders. It sounds like he avoided anything serious, but his status for Friday appears very much in doubt. If it turns out he’s able to play, I’d still expect Miami to limit his touches to keep him healthy, though he has the home run ability to put up a solid fantasy line on limited touches. The Jets are easier to attack on the ground than through the air. They rank 18th in run defense DVOA (compared to 5th in pass defense) and have allowed the 10th-most RB points per game. If Achane plays at all, you could roll the dice on him as an upside RB3 if you needed a ceiling play, but that’s a risky proposition.
RB Roschon Johnson, CHI (Wk. 12: @Min.): D’Onta Foreman left last weekend’s game with an ankle injury. If he sits in week 12, it could open the door for more work for Roschon, but that didn’t prove to be true while Khalil Herbert was on IR, so I’m not sure you can bank on it here. Johnson hasn’t posted a top-30 PPR game since week 1, and the Vikings allow the 8th-fewest running back points per game. He’s likely to see a handful of carries and a handful of targets this week while splitting the backfield work with Herbert, but that same workload hasn’t made him a viable RB3 in weeks with several teams on byes, so it’s hard to see that changing in a tough matchup while all 32 teams are in action.
RB Tyjae Spears, TEN (Wk. 12: vs. Car.): Spears faces one of the most favorable matchups that a running back can draw this week, and I think that’s a bad thing for him. The Panthers rank dead last in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 2nd-most RB points per game, but my guess is that means we’re going to get a vintage Derrick Henry game rather than a breakout game for Spears. Will Levis has been struggling in recent weeks, and the Panthers are easier to attack on the ground than through the air, so I’d look for Tennessee to lean on Henry. Even if Tyjae gets his usual complement of 8-10 touches, it’s hard to trust him to produce even in this great matchup. In 4 Will Levis starts, Spears has been held below 20 rushing yards 3 times, and below 15 receiving yards 3 times. I can’t recommend him as more than a PPR RB4 this week.
RB Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN (Wk. 12: vs. Cle.): Over the last two weeks, McLaughlin has posted his two lowest scrimmage yardage totals since September as he was held to 15 yards or fewer in both games. This week he faces arguably the toughest defense in the NFL. The Browns rank 1st in run defense DVOA and rank 6th in pass defense DVOA on throws to opposing backs. That defense has shown cracks in recent weeks, as Zach Charbonnet, Kenneth Walker III, Keaton Mitchell, and Jaylen Warren have all had efficient days against them with over 7.5 yards per touch in the last 3 weeks, but McLaughlin will be hard to count on even if he’s efficient. The 40–50-yard ceiling we’ve seen from him when Javonte Williams is in the lineup just isn’t enough upside to chase in a week with no byes.
WR Rashee Rice, KC (Wk. 12: @LV): It’s been curious that the Chiefs haven’t given Rice a bigger workload in recent weeks as they’ve been searching for someone, anyone, from their WR group to step up. Rice has been easily the most efficient receiver of the group, but he’s logged a route participation rate above 60% just once all year, and just last week we saw Justin Watson get peppered with 11 targets. Rice’s target rate and red zone usage has been strong enough that he’s finished as a PPR WR3 or better in 6 out of 10 games this year, but he’s pulled in more than 4 catches in a game just twice, and more than 60 receiving yards just once. The Raiders’ pass defense isn’t as bad as you might think, allowing the 12th-fewest WR points per game and ranking 14th in pass defense DVOA. You could bet on Rashee’s floor getting him to a WR3 finish again this week, but I’d opt to look elsewhere with no byes. There just hasn’t been a ton of ceiling here.
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA (Wk. 12: vs. SF): JSN has been about as steady as they come when it comes to rookie production in recent weeks. He’s settled into the Seattle WR3 role nicely, and every week it seems like you can count on 5-7 targets, 3-5 catches, and 40-60 receiving yards. He’s been right around that range for 6 straight games now, but those totals aren’t going to make for a great fantasy starter unless he gets in the end zone. Tyler Boyd is the only starting slot receiver who has scored a TD against the 49ers this season. JSN should still have his safe floor if you want to plug him in as a WR4 in a deeper league, but with every team playing this week, there are likely other options with more upside you could start instead.
WR Dontayvion Wicks, GB (Wk. 12: @Det.): Wicks leads the Packers’ receivers this season in yards per route run, but his route participation rate has been below 50% in 6 straight games. He’s still found a way to make an impact, putting up top-36 PPR finishes in each of the last 3 games, but all of those performances came in weeks with 4 teams on byes, and he only hit 10+ PPR points in that span against the Chargers, who’s secondary has leaked like a sieve this season. Detroit has ranked 12th in pass defense DVOA, so I’d expect Wicks to be closer to the 50ish yards he put up in weeks 9 & 10 rather than the 91 he put up last week. I’d view him as a volatile WR4 option.
WR Quentin Johnston, LAC (Wk. 12: vs. Bal.): Johnston matched his season-high with 6 targets last week in Green Bay, but he may have had his worst day as a professional in the process. If you haven’t seen the highlight (or lowlight) yet, Johnston managed to get wide open on what looked like a game-winning 70-yard touchdown pass only for a perfect throw to carom off his hands and fall harmlessly to the ground. It was a play that epitomized the issues that have hampered QJ’s rookie season. Johnston finished the game with just 2 catches for 21 yards. He’s now played 3 straight games with at least an 85% route participation rate, and in those games, he’s averaged just 23 receiving yards on 4 targets per game. He should play close to a full-time role again this week, but there’s no reason to count on a reversal of fortune against a Baltimore defense that ranks 2nd in pass defense DVOA and allows the 4th-fewest WR points per game.
WR Jonathan Mingo, CAR (Wk. 12: @Ten.): Bryce Young’s unwillingness to push the ball down the field and Mingo’s struggles to separate from coverage in the short part of the field have continued to be an underwhelming pairing in the Carolina offense. Over the last 3 games, Mingo has tallied just 5 catches for 31 yards on 17 targets. It’s hard to get excited about the nearly 6 targets per game when they’re resulting in less than 2 yards per target. You can’t count on him getting on track here, even against a defense that allows the 6th-most WR points per game.
Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:
QB Tommy DeVito, NYG (Wk. 12: vs. NE): You may be thinking about firing up DeVito as a QB2 this week after he put up 3 TDs and a stunning QB7 finish against the Commanders. Don’t overreact to that performance. The Commanders have had the worst pass defense in the league. The Patriots, on the other hand, have allowed the 10th-fewest QB points per game and have held top-flight signal callers Dak Prescott, Tua Tagovailoa, and Jalen Hurts below 15 points against them. Look for DeVito to come crashing back to earth a bit here. I’d be ecstatic with it if he finishes as a mid-range QB2 this week.
QB Aidan O’Connell, LV (Wk. 12: vs. KC): O’Connell set a season-high with 271 passing yards last Sunday against Miami as the Raiders desperately tried and failed to pull even or ahead on the scoreboard for most of the second half. He’s now played two full games in a trailing game script, and he’s averaged 40 pass attempts per game in them (compared to 26 attempts per game when playing from ahead). He should have similar passing volume this week with the Raiders a 9.5-point underdog to Kansas City, but the Chiefs are a tougher secondary than the other teams O’Connell has chased on the scoreboard (the Dolphins and Chargers). Kansas City ranks 3rd in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 5th-fewest QB points per game. They’re the only defense in the league that hasn’t allowed an opposing QB to score 20 fantasy points in a game against them this year. KC has allowed just 3 QBs all year to throw for multiple TDs, allowed just 3 QBs to throw for 250+ yards, and allowed just one QB to do both (Kirk Cousins). I’d treat O’Connell as a fringe QB2 at best this week despite the high expected passing volume.
QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson, CLE (Wk. 12: @Den.): Thompson-Robinson has started two games this season, and he’s finished those two weeks as the QB30 and QB27, averaging 143 passing yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs and 22 rushing yards per game. This week’s matchup with the Broncos looks better on paper than it really is. Denver ranks 31st in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 10th-most QB points per game, but much of that is due to early season struggles. In their last 3 games, Denver has faced Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Joshua Dobbs. They held Allen to his 2nd-lowest point total of the season, Mahomes to his lowest, and held Dobbs to his lowest in his last 4 games. DTR’s rushing ability will always give him a little appeal, but given his performance so far this year and the fact there are no byes this week, it’s hard to justify putting him into 2-QB lineups in a matchup that’s tougher than it appears.
RB Kendre Miller, NO (Wk. 12: @Atl.): Miller has logged 9 touches in his last 4 games combined (the only 4 games he’s played with both Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams active), and he faces an Atlanta defense that allows the 2nd-fewest RB points per game this week. He’s the RB3 here, and that’s before you talk about Taysom Hill stealing goal line carries.
RB Kenny McIntosh, SEA (Wk. 12: vs. SF): McIntosh is expected to make his season debut this week with Kenneth Walker III doubtful for Thursday night’s tilt with the 49ers, but I don’t expect him to have a role that will make him useful for fantasy. Zach Charbonnet is expected to be the clear lead back with Walker out, while McIntosh and DeeJay Dallas split the backup work. Kenny’s best-case scenario would be if he was the clear RB2, but the matchup this week with San Francisco doesn’t lend itself to fantasy production in a backup role, as the 49ers allow the 7th-fewest RB points per game. Only 5 backs have scored 10+ points against them all year. Even if Walker is out for multiple weeks, the Seahawks next 4 games are all against defenses in the top-7 at limiting RB points. You could stash him in a deep league on the chance that something happens to Charbonnet or that he shows out on limited touches this week, but you likely won’t regret it if you just leave him on the wire.
RB Tank Bigsby, JAX (Wk. 12: @Hou.): Bigsby handled a season-high 9 carries last week in a blowout win over the Titans, but he turned them into just 21 scoreless yards against a stingy Tennessee run defense. The Texans’ run defense is worse than Tennessee’s, but I wouldn’t count on a similar game script here with the Jaguars favored by only a point. Don’t treat the spike in touches as a role change. All of Bigsby’s carries came in the 4th quarter, and 8 of them were on the Jaguars’ final drive with a 20-point lead.
RB Emari Demercado, ARI (Wk. 12: vs. LAR): Demercado has been held out the last two games with a toe injury, but even if he returns this week, I wouldn’t count on him having much of a role. James Conner has handled all but 5 of the Cardinals’ backfield touches in the last two games since his return from IR.
WR Marvin Mims, Jr., DEN (Wk. 12: vs. Cle.): Mims’ is finally getting the playing time we were clamoring for back in September. He logged route participation rates of 76% and 68% in the last two weeks, but the targets just haven’t been there as his role has increased. He hasn’t finished higher than the PPR WR65 since week 4. His 3 targets last week were the most Mims has seen since week 3, but he finished with just 2 catches for 12 yards. There’s no reason to expect much to change this week against a Cleveland defense that allows the 2nd-fewest WR points per game and ranks 1st in pass defense DVOA.
WR Jake Bobo, SEA (Wk. 12: vs. SF): Over the last 4 games combined, Bobo has tallied just 5 catches for 44 yards and a short rushing TD on a goal-line jet sweep. There’s no reason to expect his role to grow this week against a solid 49ers’ defense. He’s a touchdown-or-bust player unless someone gets hurt ahead of him.
WR Tre Tucker, LV (Wk. 12: vs. KC): Tucker set a season-high with 7 targets in week 11, but he continued to split the WR3 role with Hunter Renfrow and finished with just 2 catches for 36 yards. Tucker was in a route on just 40% of the team passing dropbacks compared to 47% for Renfrow. While the increased targets were nice, he’s still tallied over 60% of his receiving yards for the season on just two deep catches, and I don’t like his chances to record a deep grab this week. Kansas City ranks 4th in pass defense DVOA on deep throws and has allowed the 6th-fewest WR points per game.
WR Jalin Hyatt, NYG (Wk. 12: vs. NE): Tommy DeVito has attempted 80 passes so far this season. Jalin Hyatt has been targeted on just 6 of them and has totaled 3 catches for 26 yards on those targets. Hyatt has been running a route on about 60% of the team passing dropbacks, but DeVito rarely looks his way outside of designed deep shots, which haven’t connected. The Patriots rank in the top-12 in pass defense DVOA on deep throws, so I wouldn’t count on that connection getting better here. DeVito’s favorite target, Darius Slayton, suffered an arm injury and his status is in doubt for this week’s game, but I wouldn’t assume Hyatt gets much of a boost as a result. The Patriots are a much better pass defense than the Commanders, and I expect DeVito to struggle much more than he did last Sunday.
WRs Xavier Gipson & Jason Brownlee, NYJ (Wk. 12: vs. Mia.): Gipson was in a route on 91% of the team dropbacks last week and Brownlee was at 34% in his first game playing any offensive snaps this season, but the duo combined for just 1 catch for 7 yards in this broken passing game. The Jets have finally benched Zach Wilson and made the switch to Tim Boyle at QB this week, but I wouldn’t expect significantly better results from a journeyman QB who has thrown an interception on 7.5% of his NFL pass attempts and averaged just 5.1 yards per attempt. There’s no good reason to roll the dice here, even against a Miami defense that allows the 11th-most WR points per game.
WR Cedric Tillman, CLE (Wk. 12: @Den.): Dorian Thompson-Robinson at QB has curtailed any momentum Cedric Tillman picked up with the trade of Donovan Peoples-Jones to Detroit. Tillman has been playing a full-time role (91% and 87% route participation rates in the last 2 games), but DTR has averaged fewer than 4 yards per attempt in both of his starts this season, and Tillman is just too low in the target pecking order to make a fantasy impact with that abysmal passing efficiency. DTR has had tunnel vision for David Njoku and Amari Cooper, and I don’t see Tillman breaking through unless something changes at the QB position.
WR Kayshon Boutte, NE (Wk. 12: @NYG): Boutte has been active for just 2 games this season but logged a route participation rate of 50% or higher in both. That’s resulted in just 1 catch for 11 yards on 5 targets. There’s no reason to consider him here, even against a bad Giants’ pass defense.
WR Tyler Scott, CHI (Wk. 12: @Min.): Scott has been splitting the WR3 role with Equanimeous St. Brown since ESB returned from IR in week 10, and he’s logged more than 2 touches in a game just once this year. That isn’t likely to change soon after a Scott miscue late last Sunday resulted in him not being able to haul in a pass that would’ve sealed a win over the division-leading Lions.
WR Andrei Iosivas, CIN (Wk. 12: vs. Pit.): Iosivas sat last week with injury, and if he returns this week, it’ll be to a wholly different landscape for the Bengals’ offense without Joe Burrow. With Burrow under center, there was always a chance for Iosivas to have a couple decent games on limited snaps, but that possibility becomes almost non-existent with Jake Browning taking over. There’s no need to roster the rookie in redraft leagues, no matter how deep.
TE Michael Mayer, LV (Wk. 12: vs. KC): Mayer has logged 5 targets and topped 8 PPR points in each of the last two games, but the Chiefs have allowed the 4th-fewest TE points per game and have allowed just 3 tight ends all year to reach 40 yards against them. They haven’t faced many quality tight ends in recent weeks, but Cole Kmet, Sam LaPorta, and TJ Hockenson all had floor weeks against them. I’d be surprised if Mayer finds his way to 8-10 PPR points again this week.
TE Luke Schoonmaker, DAL (Wk. 12: vs. Was.): Schoonmaker posted his best game of the season last week with 2 catches for 23 yards and a TD, but his playing time didn’t see any sort of spike. He was in a route on just 19% of the team passing dropbacks in the game, and that’s just not usage you can count on, even against a terrible Washington pass defense.
Rookies to sit who are injured or have had very limited or non-existent roles: RB Deuce Vaughn, DAL, RB Chase Brown, CIN, RB Eric Gray, NYG, RB Sean Tucker, TB, RB Chris Rodriguez Jr., WAS, RB Elijah Dotson, LAC, RB Israel Abanikanda, NYJ, RB Christopher Brooks, MIA, WR Derius Davis, LAC, WR Rakim Jarrett, TB, WR Xavier Hutchinson, HOU, WR Ronnie Bell, SF, TE Luke Musgrave, GB, TE Darnell Washington, PIT, TE Payne Durham, TB, TE Brenton Strange, JAX, TE Josh Whyle, TEN
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
QB Bryce Young, CAR (Wk. 12: @Ten.): I know, I know, the thought of plugging Bryce Young into any fantasy lineups given his recent performances likely makes you cringe in horror. Over his last 3 games, Young has averaged 160 yards per game on a 56.5% completion percentage, and he’s posted 2 TDs and 4 INTs while being sacked 14 times in that span. It’s been ugly, but this might be a good spot for him to get back on track, at least by his standards. Young ranks 32nd out of 34 qualified QBs in intended air yards per pass attempt, and the Titans rank dead last in pass defense DVOA on short throws. Tennessee also ranks 31st in pass defense DVOA on throws to the opposing WR1, so Young should have success getting the ball to his primary playmaker, Adam Thielen. I’m not recommending that you start Bryce in 2-QB leagues with 32 teams in action, but I do like his chances of posting one of his better fantasy days of the season.
WR Michael Wilson, ARI (Wk. 12: vs. LAR): Wilson posted just 3 catches for 34 yards in Kyler Murray’s season debut in week 10 before missing last week with injury, but he was in a route on 91% of Murray’s dropbacks in that debut. He’s not practicing yet this week as of Wednesday, but if he’s able to get himself onto the field, this could be a great opportunity for him to have a spike week. Entering last week, Wilson ranked 36th in fantasy points per route run against zone coverage, and all but one of his receptions for the season have come against zone. The Rams play zone at the 6th-highest rate in the league, and they’re not good at it – their defense has the lowest PFF zone coverage grade of any team in the league. Wilson is only an option in deep leagues and DFS formats, but this matchup sets up nicely for him.
WR A.T. Perry, NO (Wk. 12: @Atl.): Michael Thomas was placed on IR this week with a knee injury, which moves Perry into the starting lineup in 3-wide sets for New Orleans. I’m not sure that will mean big production this week, but the Saints targeted him 4 times in week 10 and got him the ball in the end zone. The Falcons allow the 10th-fewest WR points per game, but they also rank 30th in pass-defense DVOA and can be thrown on if you try. He’ll likely be settling for 4-5 targets per week behind Chris Olave, Alvin Kamara, and Rashid Shaheed in the pecking order, but the WR3 in the offense that ranks 3rd in pass attempts per game is worth rostering in deeper leagues.
WR Jalen Brooks, DAL (Wk. 12: vs. Was.): I mention Brooks as a sleeper only for showdown DFS contests for the Cowboys-Commanders game. Dallas is favored in this game by 10.5 points, but games where they win have gotten out of hand this season. Dallas has won by at least 20+ points in 6 of their 7 victories, and they’ve shown a willingness to throw the ball while ahead in garbage time. They’ve dropped back to throw on more than a third of their 4th quarter snaps when leading by 20+ points, and Brooks would likely be on the field a lot in those scenarios and costs just $400 for showdown contests on DraftKings. The Commanders are arguably the worst pass defense in the NFL. If you think the Cowboys win in a romp, Brooks may be worth a dart as the last guy in those lineups. It’s worth mentioning, however, that the Cowboys are 1-11 against the spread in their last 12 Thanksgiving games.
TE Tucker Kraft, GB (Wk. 12: @Det.): If you haven’t seen the Packers’ injury report, you might’ve missed the update that starting tight end Luke Musgrave suffered a lacerated kidney that landed him on IR. Backup Josiah Deguara is also dealing with a hip injury that has him listed as doubtful for Thursday. That leaves Kraft as the #1 tight end for this matchup. Kraft had already seen a spike in playing time recently, running 31 routes and drawing 5 targets in the last two games, but the injuries in front of him mean Kraft could be a near every-down player this week against a Detroit defense that allows the 12th-most TE points per game. Musgrave was averaging 5.5 targets per game in that role. You’d have to be pretty desperate to be looking at him for a typical 1-TE league, but he has some appeal for 2-TE formats and in limited slate DFS contests on Turkey Day. He costs the minimum on DraftKings for the Thursday slate, and just $1,200 for showdown contests for the Detroit-Green Bay game.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.
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