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The secret to a good offense is balance. But what rings true in the NFL is not always true for fantasy football. Sometimes a team with a huge imbalance can be very helpful for fantasy - or at least tell us what we should be avoiding. Let’s have a look at teams who are on both sides of the run/pass balance sheet. First up is the team that is running the ball far, far more than any other team in the league.

Chicago Bears - Run 67%, Pass 33% - The Bears are tied for the fewest plays per game in the league, so it’s not as if this offensive imbalance can be exploited all that much. What we do know for sure are two things. One, that this can’t last forever. Eventually, they will have to throw the ball. The Bears run the ball 10% more than the next highest team on the run-heavy side. That’s just absurd. Fields has only one game with double-digit completions, and that tops out at 11. He’s bound to throw the ball more, eventually. Until then, he’s a sit in all formats. Along with any pass catcher on the Bears.

Justin Fields has the same number of rushes and completions this season. The Bears are running the ball this much because their offense is basically anemic. The second thing we know is that there is only one fantasy player worth starting on the Bears, Khalil Herbert. The silver lining we can take away from the analysis of this imbalance is, I suppose, that we can feel confident in starting a backup RB while David Montgomery is out. When he comes back, it’s all going to be thrown into chaos again.

General Analysis - Though it’s not a hard rule, it can generally be interpreted that running the ball too much in this league is a sign of a bad offense. Only 3 of the teams that run the ball more than 50% of the time are in the top 10 of scoring. In the NFL, you need to have a good run game to be good, but you need to be good enough to not have to use it that often. The most balanced team - the one closest to a 50/50 split - is the Tennessee Titans (50.7% run/49.3% pass), and there are only 6 teams that run the ball more than they do. This is clearly a passing league.

Let’s look at the best offense in the league for a moment. The Detroit Lions have scored 140 points in 4 games, and are right smack in the middle of the pack when it comes to run/pass. That doesn’t mean they are 50/50 - they are actually 42.4% run and 57.6% pass. They just have found the best balance that works in today’s NFL. They are 16th in run% and 17th in pass%. The second-best offense in the league, the Kansas City Chiefs, are just two spots away from the Lions, leaning towards the pass. Both teams have found the sweet spot of the run-to-pass ratio that is keeping offenses honest and keeping their teams scoring points - the only two in the league to be averaging over 30 points per game.

New York Jets - Run 30.8%, Pass 69.2% - Now we look to the Jets, the team with the biggest imbalance in the league. The Jets throw the ball 4% more than any other team. Despite this imbalance, they are in much better shape than the Bears. The Jets are in the middle of the pack when it comes to scoring points (18th), and actually have the 8th most yards from scrimmage in the league. Even though they’re imbalanced, they are still moving the ball a lot since their imbalance comes due to the pass, instead of the run. Passing plays just rack up more stats and that’s a fact. The Jets, with their 5.5 NY/A (net yards gained per pass attempt) are only 24th in the league. It’s still higher than the Bears 5.2 Y/A running the ball, which is a shiny 4th in the league!

Now that we’ve established that passing the ball is intrinsically more valuable than running the ball, even when you are at either extreme, what fantasy insight can we glean on this Jets team? Well, they do have tons of completions - the second-highest number of receptions (tied for 3rd in the league), so there’s lots of value in PPR formats. Unfortunately, they do spread the ball around a ton. Already, 6 players have at least 15 receptions through 4 games. Their leading pass catcher, Tyler Conklin, has 21 catches on the season and is tied for 21st in receptions - I do love fun coincidences like that one. The Jets like to spread it around so much, they even have 4 players who have thrown pass completions already this season. 

Perhaps if the Jets had fewer offensive players to choose from, they would have one or two stand out in fantasy. As it stands, the Jets only have one player who is in the top 10 of points at his position, Tyler Conklin, currently the TE10. The other high water marks are Breece Hall (RB) and Garrett Wilson (WR), both at 19 of their respective positions. I believe that perhaps the most accurate conclusion we can draw from our two examples thus far is that it’s not a good idea to have fantasy players from any team on either extreme of the run/pass split. At least the Jets are running 70 plays per game and have fantasy value based on their expected volume alone, though there are no studs to be seen.

Buffalo Bills - Run 36.3%, Pass 63.7% - Finally, let us take a look at an offense that is unbalanced AND performing well. The Bills are 5th in the league in terms of total points with 114, and they are 6th when it comes to being a pass-heavy offense. The Bills are obviously a good, talented team, whereas the previous two are not. Take a look at where just a few stats can make a world of difference. The Bills have a 6.7 NY/A when passing and are able to squeeze many more fantasy points out of their passing game compared to the Jets, who threw the ball 23 more times, but actually have 2 fewer completions! It’s not about how much you do the thing, it’s about how well you do it.

The Bills are also running the ball efficiently with the time they do run it, probably because defenses have to defend the pass so much. They are gaining 4.8 Y/A, the 11th best in the league, and not that far behind the Bears. Since the best runner on the Bills is Josh Allen, this sort of ruins any chance they have at a candidate for a good fantasy RB. Their best is Devin Singletary, at RB26. They do have Allen all the way up at QB2, and Stefon Diggs at WR2, so it’s clear that their more focused, pass-heavy offense is netting tons of fantasy points.

So, what conclusions can we draw from this exercise? First, it’s not going to help being the team that runs the most or passes the most if you don’t have the right players to exploit it. Chances are, you’re just being forced into those situations because you’re a bad team. Second, it’s best to be in the middle of the pack regarding the split (somewhere around 42% run, 58% pass) to find the most offensive success. Third, you need to have all-pro players to really be a predictable offense and still succeed. If you do not have those players, you are going to struggle to find fantasy success. As much as we want our players to dominate touches or carries, your average player is going to be more likely to excel on a more balanced team.

As we head into week 5, we head into our second week of the International Series. This week we are sending the Giants and Packers over to London.

This, like last week, means that our Sunday is getting an early start. So if you are like me and wait until Sunday morning to do your final fantasy/confidence tweaking, remember to set your alarm!

Week 5 – HERE WE GO!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

16 – TAMPA BAY over Atlanta – Brady has been losing…on and off the field…and I’m sure will be looking to take that aggression out on the Falcons.

15 – GREEN BAY over New York Giants (in London) –If the Packers lose this one, Rodgers might hide the passports of a few of his receivers.

14 – JACKSONVILLE over Houston – I really wanted to put the Jags on the 16 point line…just to say that I did it once in my life! My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is THE JAGUARS WILL WIN THE AFC SOUTH.

13 – BUFFALO over Pittsburgh – After 1 ½ games of questions its safe the say the Bills are back. Look for them to dominate this one.

12 – MINNESOTA over Chicago –  The Bears just won’t be able to keep up with the Vikings offensive weapons.

11 – LOS ANGELES RAMS over Dallas – Simply put, the Rams need this one.

10 – San Francisco over CAROLINA – At this point the Panthers would be better just playing with 10 guys on offense with no QB.

9 – Tennessee over WASHINGTON – Wow there are a lot of boring matchups this week!

8 – NEW ORLEANS over Seattle – Wow there are a lot of boring matchups this week!

7 – Los Angeles Chargers over CLEVELAND – Wow there are a lot…ok, you get it.

6 – BALTIMORE over Cincinnati – At least our Sunday should end with an exciting matchup from two teams that will be battling for the division this year.

5 – DENVER over Indianapolis – The Colts would have had a chance if Taylor was playing.

4 – KANSAS CITY over Las Vegas – I’m sure most think the Chiefs should be higher (understandably so) but the Raiders have had some luck in KC.

3 – Detroit over NEW ENGLAND – Picking the Lions to win…on the road…feels weird.

2 – NEW YORK JETS over Miami – Yes it’s the Jets, but it’s kind of hard to have confidence in the Dolphins right now, isn’t it?

1 – ARIZONA over Philadelphia – I’m not sold on the Eagles yet.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

The NFL season is in full swing. There have already been two games in London, bye weeks are kicking in, and Thursday Night Football is as bad as we all make fun of it for being. Meanwhile, House of the Dragon is nearing its peak of the season. We’ve had weddings, funerals, dragons, and the Greens fighting the Blacks. In that spirit, here are some stats from Week 5 inspired by my favorite show on TV right now.

Fire

125 Points in the Last Two Weeks

Like a couple of random soldiers in the Stepstones, Austin Ekeler and Josh Jacobs are on fire. The two running backs have combined for 125.6 points over the last two weeks. Jacobs has 368 yards from scrimmage over that span, giving him 619 on the season, good for third in the league – ahead of all wide receivers. It took Jacobs until week 13 to reach that mark last year. This season, the Raiders are not particularly dominant on offense – just 8^th overall in points and 10th or lower in most offensive categories. Credit for these performances lies with Jacobs, who is averaging a career-high 5.4 Y/A and has caught 17 of his 18 targets. Ekeler has 5 touchdowns in the last 2 games after not finding the end zone in the first 3 games. He started the season with 32.4 points over weeks 1 through 3, then averaged 32.9 points per game in the next two. He finds himself as the RB2 on the season now. In week 5 @ Cleveland, Ekeler posted his career high in rushing yards, 173, blowing away his previous career high of 117. It’s only his third time posting 100+ rushing yards in a game. Ekeler has gotten going, and so have the Chargers, putting up 30 or more in the last 2 games. Ekeler is paying off his very high overall ADP3 going into the season.

Ice

5:7 TD to INT Ratio

After winning the Super Bowl last year, Matthew Stafford just can’t find fantasy success this season. He’s throwing INTs at a rate he hasn’t seen since his rookie year (though it can be noted that he led the league in INTs last year). This season he leads the league in sacks and has his worst QB rating since 2012. The Rams are now the most imbalanced offense in the league, passing on 66.7% of their plays. As we learned last week, this is not a recipe for success. Stafford is just the QB23 on the season, after being drafted as the QB12 coming off a season where he averaged 20.4 points per game. Stafford has only one game over 12 points this season and is coming in behind players like Jacoby Brissett and Marcus Mariota, who are not even sniffing the chance at being rostered in single QB leagues. Stafford and the Rams are cold as ice, and as long as they keep putting the 29th-ranked offense out on the field, you can go ahead and just send him to the wall.

Green

50 Yards Per Reception

Double green bonus points here. Not only is Breece Hall green – as in, he’s a rookie. He also plays for Gang Green. Hall had his breakout game this week, making his dramatic entrance in green, if you will. He scored 26.7 fantasy points as the Jets demolished the Dolphins, 40-17. Hall had 197 yards from scrimmage, featuring 2 catches for 100 yards. Hall’s 79-yard reception (an early leader for the longest non-scoring play of the season) to close out the first quarter kept him from an even bigger game. Being tackled at the 1 is never fun, and then Michael Carter came in to vulture his touchdown. Hall is now the RB10 on the season and is trending up over the last 3 games – something we love to see here. Another green player on Gang Green – Tyler Conklin, came up totally empty on Sunday, though I suspect that is more of a bump in the road, rather than an omen of things to come.

Black

3 Games with 2+ Passing TDs in a Row

Fitting (or forcing) our Game of Thrones/House of the Dragon theme, we’ll have a vet represent the black side. Geno Smith is easily playing the best football of his career, and it only took him 8 seasons to get there. Smith is like Daemon, just leaning against the wall smirking, biding his time. Daring someone to start him again. Smith has never had consecutive games with 2+ passing TDs until this year. Over the last 3 games, Smith has 2, 2, and 3 passing scores on his way to 9 on the season. His previous career high is 12, and that’s for a full 16-game season. Smith is leading the league in completion percentage, and perhaps even more unexpectedly, QB rating. He’s the QB7 on the season, and is still only rostered in 51% of Fleaflicker leagues. What’s going on guys? He’s doing better than Brady, Herbert, Rodgers, Stafford, and Wentz, though only barely on that last one. OK, I’ll grant you some things are just statistical oddities. Regardless, Geno Smith is playing very well, and the Seahawks would probably have a more impressive record if it wasn’t for them giving up the 2^nd most points in the league. This journeyman, as they say, has found the fountain of youth in the pacific northwest.

The Stink Eye

25 Yards, 4 Touchdowns

Travis Kelce earns a major stink eye this week. Like Aemond Targaryen, he just hung back all night and made the most of his modest contributions. Kelce’s 7 catches went for just an average of just over 3.5 yards each. Discarding one game where he had one reception, this game featured both his lowest yards per catch of his career, and the most touchdowns of his career. Four touchdowns double his previous career high of two. Kelce is somehow turning up the fantasy juice with the exit of Tyreek Hill. He’s leading the league in receiving TDs, he’s near his career high in receptions per game, and does have a career-high catch rate of 78.6%. As the TE1 on the season, he’s absolutely dominating the field. He’s 20 points ahead of Mark Andrews at TE2, and nearly 40 points ahead of Taysom Hill, even with his huge breakout in Week 5.

Just like last couple of weeks with the London games, we have yet another aspect of the NFL schedule starting up this week, this one having a bit more of an effect on a confidence pool– bye weeks!

This can play big in your season long pools. If you have had a solid start and are sitting comfortably towards the top of the standings, you are loving bye weeks as the top numbers aren’t in play! You can’t have 15 and 16 point games where there are only 14 games played in a week!

On the flip side, if you need to make up ground, you need to make sure you hit as many picks as you can in a week.

Lucky for you, you’re reading my picks, so you’re good to go ?

Week 6 – HERE WE GO!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

14 – LOS ANGELES RAMS over Carolina – This is obviously less about how good the Rams are doing and more about how God-awful the Panthers are doing.

13 – GREEN BAY over New York Jets – The Jets have definitely made progress this season  - they’re just not at a “win at Lambeau” level yet.

12 – San Francisco over ATLANTA – Jimmy G has the 9ers on a roll that dwindling Falcons can’t keep up with.

11 – LOS ANGELES CHARGERS over Denver – Ah I remember a time not too long ago when everyone laughed at me and brushed me off when I said trading for Russell Wilson was a huge mistake for the Broncos

10 – Cincinnati over NEW ORLEANS – Look for this to be a game where the Bengals start to make their 2022 comeback

9 – SEATTLE over Arizona – The Cardinals have to be counting the seconds at this point for DeAndre Hopkins to come back.

8 – CLEVELAND over New England – Continuously handing the ball to Nick Chubb seems like it would be a solid offensive strategy.

7 – INDIANAPOLIS over Jacksonville – The Jags have the Colts number in Jacksonville…in Indy…not so much.

6 – Tampa Bay over PITTSBURGH – How lucky are the Bucs that they are in the NFC South? My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that even with the slow start, THE BUCS WILL CLINCH THE NFC SOUTH BY WEEK 12

5 – Minnesota over MIAMI – It would be a fun story for Skylar Thompson to come in and beat the Vikings…just won’t happen

4 – Dallas over PHILADELPHIA – …still not sold on the Eagles…

3 – Buffalo over KANSAS CITY – I’ve decided to bite my tongue regarding my thoughts on the city of Kansas City…

2 – NEW  YORK GIANTS over Baltimore – Are…are the Giants for real?

1 – CHICAGO over Washington – Was going to have a Commanders win here until hearing that Carson Wentz’s arm isn’t 100%