Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

 

 

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

 

 

16 Total TDs

 

Jonathan Taylor is the RB1 on the season, and the second highest scoring player among all fantasy football players. He and Josh Allen have supplanted Jalen Hurts at the top of the overall list, and now I can stop trash talking Jalen Hurts and let him just be bad in Philadelphia. Oops, maybe I’ll stop now. Anyways, Taylor has a league leading 16 total TDs on the season. He also leads the league in yards from scrimmage with 1,541. He has 35 more fantasy points than the next highest non-QB, Cooper Kupp – though Kupp has had a bye, and Taylor’s is coming up in Week 14. Taylor has an average of 22.2 points per game, still shy of Derrick Henry (still the 7^th highest point total among non-QBs) – who would just be the biggest story in the NFL if he had remained healthy and continued the pace that he was on. Back to Taylor, who nearly had a remarkable record. Last week he tied LaDanian Tomlinson with 8 straight games of 100+ scrimmage yards and 1 TD. In week 12, he came just 3 yards short of extending that streak to a record breaking 9 games.

 

2 Receptions for the WR1

 

This week’s stupid technicality stat comes to us courtesy of the most impressive hybrid player in the league, Cordarrelle Patterson. Patterson has had RB and WR eligibility the entire season, and it makes sense, because he’s both! He is the WR7 on the season and the RB8, yet he only has one game over 100 receiving yards, and 1 game – this week – over 100 rushing yards. He does have 6 games over 100 total yards (including return yards, he really does do it all) and has 9 total touchdowns. He’s achieved at quite a high level all year and has huge season long totals, despite having missed one week on bye, and another week with an injury. It’s very rare for a player to finally break out in his 9^th season, on his 5^th team. Patterson is someone that offensive coordinators have tried to unlock all over the league, and it’s one of the least likely storylines this season that the Falcons offense, of all teams, have managed to figure out how to make him one of the top 10 offensive weapons in the entire league. Perhaps the credit should fall to Patterson himself, considering the Falcons offense is 27^th in total points and 26^th in total yards.

 

10 TEs over 10 Points

 

Most weeks you can find 8-10 TEs scoring at least double-digit points, so that’s perhaps not the most impressive stat I can provide you here. What I am proud of is that 6 of those 10 tight ends are owned in the drinkfive fantasy league. Unfortunately, none of the next 10 are rostered, giving us a 30% hit rate among the top 20 tight ends for week 12. In a cruel twist of ownership, 8 of the top 11 TEs that are the most owned TEs in all of Fleaflicker scored just 4.3 points or fewer (Darren Waller gets the ominous distinction of being the tallest…er…bad tight end this week). Jack Doyle led the way this week, in the second lowest TE1 score that we’ve seen all season long (T.J. Hockenson’s 13.9 points in week 8 get that award). Tonight’s game should see the return of Logan Thomas, who averaged 9 points per game, so at least there’s a bit of quality returning to the TE pool.

 

2 Losing Teams Over 200 Rushing Yards

 

Back when the NFL was a run-heavy league, a team that got to 200+ rushing yards was almost guaranteed a win. This week, the Philadelphia Eagles and the Tennessee Titans both dominated their opponents on the ground, but were unable to turn that into control of the game. They both lacked a clear lead in the time of possession, and ultimately, on the scoreboard. The only other team that rushed for at least 200 yards was the San Fransisco 49ers, who did dominate the time of possession, still needed to cash in on two quick turnovers by the Vikings in the 3^rd quarter to take control of the game in order to use the rushing attack to their advantage. In both the Eagles’ and Titans’ case, their problem was terrible QB play that prevented them from scoring points. Neither team could top 130 yards passing, both of them threw the ball to the other team, and both had an abysmal completion percentage to boot. The NFL is a game of passing attacks with the run game complimenting it, just ask the Raiders with Derek Carr’s 6-0 record when he throws for at least 300 yards. They are 0-5 when he does not reach the 300-yard mark.

 

2 TDs in 4 Straight Games

 

Joe Mixon is quietly keeping his team firmly in the playoff chase with a feat that has not been seen for 15 years in the NFL. Mixon has 2 touchdowns in 4 consecutive games now, with 13 total on the season. Mixon has scored every single week since week 4, and only has 2 games this season where he did not find the end zone. He has at least 23 fantasy points in 5 of his last 6 games and is now sitting as the RB3 on the season. He is just one of 5 non-QBs that have eclipsed the 200-point mark for the season. He has picked up where his rookie teammate Ja’Marr Chase has left off. Chase started out the season on a tear, but has not gone over 50 yards in each of his last 4 games (since he blew up for 201 yards) and those are his 4 lowest totals on the season. Joe Burrow, likewise, has struggled lately, throwing only 2 TDs in the last 3 games, with 3 INT over that same time period (one of those going back to the house the other way). Mixon IS the Bengals offense at this point, and has a matchup coming up against the Chargers, giving up the 5^th most points to opposing RBs.

 

 

It’s time for the playoff push in fantasy football - the last two weeks of the regular season are upon us. We’ll take a look at Dave’s rankings and compare them to the ECR (expert consensus rankings) on Fantasypros.com. Some players we like more than the crowd, some of them are ranked lower, but I’ll do my best to justify why I like them.

Boston Scott (RB-PHI), Rank 20, ECR 27 (+7) - Scott is in a committee in the Eagles backfield, but he’s been getting a decent share of work. Since being added to the rotation back in Week 6, he’s averaging 10 carries per week and has scored 4 touchdowns. Jordan Howard was also inactive last week due to an injury, and Miles Sanders tweaked his ankle during the week 12 game, so his status needs to be monitored. If Sanders does not go, then Scott’s stock goes up even more. The Jets are giving up the most fantasy points to opposing RBs, and the second place team isn’t even close. The Jets have given up double digit points 18 times in 11 games this season. For a single week spot start, you could do a lot worse than Boston Scott.

Rhamondre Stevenson (RB-NE), Rank 25, ECR 28 (+3) - This week, the Patriots will play the Bills on Monday night football. The Bills just got torched by Jonathan Taylor for over 50 fantasy points a couple of weeks ago. While I’m not saying that there will be anything like a repeat of that, what I am saying is that the tape on how to run on the Bills is out there, and Bill Belichick is the coach who is most likely to be able to repeat that. Stevenson has led the Patriots backfield in carries in 2 of the last 3 weeks, and he’s a good flex play. The Bills are better at defending the pass than the run, so the Patriots will definitely lean on the run game instead of leaning on their rookie QB to defeat this stout defense.

Rex Burkhead (RB-HOU), Rank 30, ECR 33 (+3) - Burkhead is leading the way in the Houston backfield the last two weeks. While that hasn’t translated to a lot of fantasy points, he does have 33 touches over that time, and one thing we like to see from RBs is the opportunity to score points. If you’re getting the ball, you’re more likely to score. Simple as that. Burkhead is a touchdown dependent dart throw this week against the Colts.

Jamaal Williams (RB-DET), Rank 27, ECR 23 (-4) - Williams has moved up the charts due to the likely absence of D’Andre Swift coming up in week 13. This is an area where I disagree with Dave and I would go ahead and start Williams if you’re short at RB or need a flex play. Williams should see plenty of usage - last week he saw 20 touches, and Week 1 with Swift limited, he had 17 touches (8 receptions!). This will be the first full game where Williams has the backfield all to himself, and the Vikings are giving up the 9th most points to opposing RBs, after having just been dominated on the ground last week by the 49ers. 

Matt Breida (RB-BUF), Rank 33, ECR 30 (-3) - Breida has only been used in the last 3 games, but he’s scored in two of them and is averaging 12.07 points per game during that span. He has 1.57 points per touch in these three games, so he’s being very efficient during this time and has earned the right to get more work. I could definitely see his touches per game get into the 12-15 range very soon. This week they play the Patriots, who traditionally focus on shutting down the best weapons on the opposing team. Breida is probably the 4th best weapon the Bills are presenting at the moment, so this could be a sneaky good matchup for him if the primary offensive weapons are not effective. 

CeeDee Lamb (WR-DAL), Rank 7, ECR 10 (+3) - Lamb is back in the lineup for this week, now practicing in full after being in the concussion protocol and missing the Thanksgiving game. The Cowboys play on Thursday night (with normal rest!) and will likely be missing Amari Cooper and Cedric Wilson. Lamb should be in line for a ton of volume against the Saints, who give up the 5th most points to opposing WRs. Fire up Lamb in all formats as a very solid WR1.

Hunter Renfrow (WR-OAK), Rank 31, ECR 25 (-6) - Here’s a spot where I disagree with Dave. Since the Raiders bye in week 8, Renfrow has led the team in receptions and/or yardage in 3 of 4 games. He’s averaging 6.5 receptions over that span, and has 12.9 points per game during that time. Renfrow’s matchup this week is against the Washington Football Team, who give up the 4th most points to opposing WRs. The Raiders are 6-0 when Carr throws for 300+ yards, so I expect them to air the ball out as much as is reasonable for the rest of the season. That, or we’ll just have to trust in the coin to deliver their victory this week. I like Renfrow as an easy WR3, even better than just a flex option.

Kendrick Bourne (WR-NE), Rank 38, ECR 34 (-4) - Here’s a spot where I suspect I see more value than Dave does. Bourne is certainly boom or bust, but he’s boomed in two of the last three weeks, scoring over 20 points in weeks 10 and 12. Bourne gets a consistent amount of targets, 4-6 each game, and does get a few handoffs occasionally, which helps, but doesn’t exactly provide him with a higher floor. There are no dominant receiving options on the Patriots, so it’s not like Bourne will get crowded out. He has a chance go really go off each game, so treat him as a high risk, high reward flex play, especially in a standard or half PPR format.

Van Jefferson (WR-LAR), Rank 33, ECR 31 (-2) - Van Jefferson has emerged as the #2 option on the Rams, albeit a distant second behind Cooper Kupp. Jefferson seems to only excel when scoring a touchdown, but the opportunities are definitely there. The Rams throw the ball about 37 times per game, and Jefferson is averaging 7.7 targets per game in the last 3 games. Jefferson has developed into a proper downfield threat, even with the addition of Odell Beckham. The Jaguars are giving up the 11th most fantasy points to opposing WRs, so it’s a plus matchup for Van as the Rams look to beat up on the Jags after losing to the Packers.

 

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve arrived at week 13, which means the playoff chase in your leagues is heating up. We’re down to just the final two weeks of the regular season in most leagues and these next two matchups can be critical. The number thirteen is often associated with bad luck, so hopefully you’ve been able to avoid being hit by bad news on your players’ availability this week. Week 12 was a bit of a bummer for some of the elite rookies - Ja’Marr Chase, Najee Harris, DeVonta Smith and Kyle Pitts all had poor weeks – but their rookie slack was picked up by Mac Jones, Elijah Mitchell, Javonte Williams and Jaylen Waddle.

 

This week I’m going to stick with the format introduced in week 12. You obviously already know the most obvious starts & sits, so I don’t want to waste too much time on them. The bigger focus again is on what to do with the borderline rookies, as each lineup decision can be critical at this point in the season.

 

A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game numbers and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 13…

 

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

 

RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 13: vs. Bal.): Harris has finished as a top-12 PPR running back 8 times in 11 games this season. The matchup with Baltimore isn’t an easy one – the Ravens rank 5^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat and just held Nick Chubb to fewer than 5 fantasy points last week – but the Steelers know that with Big Ben at QB, they need to re-commit to running the football if they want to get their season back on track. I’d count on 20+ touches or close to it for Harris.

 

WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 13: vs. NYG): Waddle had already proven himself as a weekly auto-start in PPR leagues prior to last week, but he posted his best performance of the season on Sunday with a 9-137-1 line on 10 targets. Miami will get DeVante Parker back from IR this week and should play from ahead against the potentially Mike Glennon-led Giants, but Waddle has posted a 22.5% target share in the games Parker has been active for this season and should continue to see the ball come his way. He’s a locked-in WR3.

 

WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 13: vs. LAC): Chase’s status as an automatic weekly start is getting into the danger zone a bit after his 4^th consecutive game with fewer than 50 yards, one where he saw his lowest target total of the season (3). He also faces a tough matchup with the Chargers, who allow the 2^nd-fewest WR points per game. I’d be inclined to ride with Chase another week despite the recent performances. LA has allowed 4 receivers this season to top 90 receiving yards, and all 4 happened in the last 4 weeks. I don’t envision the Bengals being up this week the way they were against Pittsburgh, so they should throw a good amount more. Chase isn’t going to be limited to 3 targets again.

 

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Towards Starting:

 

RB Elijah Mitchell, SF (Wk. 13: @Sea.): Mitchell’s broken finger clearly isn’t going to hold him back going forward after he played his highest snap share of the season and posted his best fantasy game in week 12. He did that despite Deebo Samuel continuing to be used out of the backfield and scoring a rushing TD. Samuel is unlikely to play in week 13, so we should expect even more Mitchell this week. Seattle’s run defense is respectable, ranking 11^th in run defense DVOA, but that hasn’t stopped them from being shredded by opposing backs. They’ve allowed the 2^nd-most RB points per game. Mitchell has top-12 potential in week 13 and should be in lineups everywhere.

 

RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 13: @KC): Williams has now played more snaps than Melvin Gordon in 3 games this season, and 2 of them were the team’s last 2 contests. He seems to finally have a slight edge in this committee backfield and faces a Kansas City defense that ranks 28^th in run defense DVOA. If Denver can keep this game from getting out of hand, Williams should see enough rushing volume to return low-end RB2 or flex value. If the Chiefs run away with it (which is possible given the 10-point spread), Williams has been much more involved in the passing game than Gordon, running about twice as many routes as the veteran in the last 2 games. Gordon still hinders Javonte’s ceiling, but not as much as he was a couple weeks ago. I wouldn’t count on another 20-point PPR day for Williams, but he’s got a great shot at finishing as an RB2 this week.

 

WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 13: @NYJ): Smith is coming off a dud performance in week 12, but he gets a great opportunity to get right in week 13 against the Jets. New York looks like a middle-of-the-pack WR defense on paper, allowing the 14^th-most WR points per game, but they rank 31^st in pass defense DVOA. When teams do throw to their receivers against the Jets, good things happen. The two corners Smith will tangle with on Sunday (Javelin Guidry and Bryce Hall) have each allowed a passer rating right around 120 on throws into their coverage. Volume will be a question mark for Smith, as it has been every week since the Eagles decided to switch to a run-heavy approach, but this is a matchup where just a handful of targets could result in a strong fantasy day. I’d treat Smith as an upside WR3.

 

TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 13: vs. Bal.): It took a garbage time TD to salvage Freiermuth’s fantasy day in week 12, but garbage time scores count the same as any other. He’s now scored a TD in 4 of the last 5 games and hauled in at least 4 receptions in 6 straight. With Eric Ebron sidelined, Freiermuth played more than 75% of the offensive snaps for just the second time this season, and I’d expect that to continue going forward. This week he faces a Baltimore defense that has allowed the 4^th-most TE points per game. 4 catches and 40+ yards should be automatic, and he’s got a great chance to make it 5 games out of 6 with a TD.

 

TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 13: vs. TB): I won’t fault you if you decide not to stick with Pitts for another week. The last two weeks have been rough if you’ve been starting him, but he does get a favorable matchup this weekend. The Bucs have allowed the 8^th-most TE points per game, including a 17-point day to Jack Doyle last week. The Falcons are 11-point underdogs and will have no choice but to throw this week, and Pitts has seen 5+ targets come his way in all but one game this season. The Bucs allow a 74% completion percentage on throws targeting the tight end. I expect Pitts to bounce back to at least 50-60 yards this week with the possibility for more.

 

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Towards Sitting:

 

 

QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 13: @LAR): Lawrence finally broke through and tallied his first touchdown since Halloween against the Falcons last weekend, and that one score was enough to propel him to a top-10 fantasy finish. He gets a tough matchup with a talented Rams’ defense this week, but it’s a Rams’ defense that has been vulnerable to QBs lately, allowing 15+ points to each of the last 4 QBs they’ve faced (a group that includes Davis Mills and Jimmy Garoppolo). The Jaguars are 13-point underdogs in this game, so Lawrence should be throwing a ton, and you saw last week what kind of impact just 30 or 40 rushing yards can make on his fantasy outlook (he ran for 39 yards against Atlanta). There’s plenty of risk and downside for Lawrence here, and he should probably be viewed as a mid-to-low QB2 this week, but I like his chances to finish as the highest scoring rookie QB this week.

 

QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 13: @Buf.): With 4 byes this week, any starting QB is in consideration for a fantasy start in superflex and 2-QB formats, but I’m not a fan of Jones’ outlook in week 13. The rookie has played great ball in recent weeks, but the Patriots’ conservative offense caps his weekly fantasy upside, and he faces the toughest possible matchup this week. The Bills rank 1^st in pass defense DVOA and have held 6 of their opponents to fewer than 12 QB fantasy points, and that doesn’t include Big Ben putting up 12.02 against them. The 4 QBs who scored more against Buffalo than Big Ben each scored a rushing TD or ran for more than 60 yards. Jones hasn’t rushed for a TD or run for even 30 yards in any game this season. He has a seriously low floor this week, and I’d be looking for other options in 2-QB formats.

 

QB Justin Fields, ARI (Wk. 13: vs. Ari.): It sounds like Justin Fields is going to get the start this week for the Bears after he missed the Thanksgiving game with a rib injury, but it likely won’t be a very welcoming return. The Cardinals have allowed the 3^rd-fewest QB points per game the Bears are likely to be without Allen Robinson again. Fields isn’t going to produce a useful fantasy day without some rushing production, and after some early struggles containing running QBs this season, the Cardinals have put the clamps on over the last couple months. Arizona allowed 20+ rushing yards to 4 of the first 5 QBs they faced but have given up no more than 14 QB rushing yards (to Cam Newton in week 10) in the 6 games since. Fields is no more than a low-end QB2 this week.

 

RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 13: @Buf.): Buffalo has allowed just 4 running backs all season to score more than 7 fantasy points against them. Two of those backs were Jonathan Taylor and Derrick Henry, who each posted monster games. The other two were Antonio Gibson and Michael Carter, who each scored more than 6 points just from receiving production. More than 80% of Gibson’s points in that game came on 1 long TD reception. Those 4 backs are the only ones to find the end zone against Buffalo in any capacity this season. It’s hard to envision Stevenson making a fantasy impact against that defense while sharing the backfield with Damien Harris and Brandon Bolden. Given Bolden’s role as the receiving back, don’t be surprised if he ends up leading the backfield in fantasy points this week.

 

WR Rashod Bateman, BAL (Wk. 13: @Pit.): Bateman’s playing time took a hit in week 12 with both Marquise Brown and Sammy Watkins healthy. He was in a route on only 60% of the Ravens’ dropbacks last week after being at 82% the week before with Brown sidelined. The Steelers are a worse defense than their reputation would have you believe, ranking 26^th in pass defense DVOA and allowing the 10^th-most WR points per game, but most of their opponents have needed volume to rack up those points. In their last 7 games, only Darnell Mooney reached 10 fantasy points against the Steelers with fewer than 8 targets. I’d expect closer to 5 or 6 targets for Bateman this week. He’s a viable WR3 option, but I’d prefer someone with a similar floor who has more blow-up potential this week.

 

WR Rondale Moore, ARI (Wk. 13: @Chi.): Moore posted a fun stat line last week if you started him in PPR formats with 11 receptions, but he turned them into just 51 yards. Colt McCoy was not shy about checking down to the rookie against a defense that entered the game with the 2^nd-most yards after catch allowed this season. This week the Cardinals will get Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins back, which likely means a lower target share for Moore, and they face a Bears’ defense that has allowed the 12^th-fewest yards after catch. Even in PPR leagues, it’ll be hard to count on Moore to put up a healthy reception total again if he continues to play fewer than 40% of the offensive snaps, which is likely.

 

WR Elijah Moore, NYJ (Wk. 13: vs. Phi.): Moore posted his worst fantasy game since before the Jets’ week 6 bye in Zach Wilson’s return to the lineup last Sunday, but with 4 receptions and over 50 scrimmage yards it was still his best fantasy performance in any game that Wilson played from start to finish. Hopefully that bodes well for him going forward. I expect Wilson to keep starting the rest of the way, so Moore needs this connection to get stronger to be useful in fantasy. This week’s matchup is daunting for Moore on paper. The Eagles have allowed the 3^rd-fewest WR points per game and have allowed just 5 receivers all season to score 10+ fantasy points. 4 of those 5 receivers are in the top-17 in the NFL in fantasy points per game, and 3 of them are in the top-5. Moore isn’t quite on that level, especially with Zach Wilson at QB. I’d be happy with anything more than 50 yards out of Elijah in this one.

 

WR Kadarius Toney, NYG (Wk. 13: @Mia.): Toney’s status for week 13 remains up in the air after he didn’t practice Wednesday or Thursday, but Toney will be hard to rely on this week even if he plays. Daniel Jones is battling a neck injury, so it’s possible that Mike Glennon may end up under center for the Giants. Glennon being under center might not be the worst thing for Kadarius. In Toney’s breakout game against Dallas where he piled up 189 receiving yards, throws from Glennon accounted for 109 of those yards. Toney hasn’t caught for 100+ yards from Daniel Jones in any game this season. The circumstances this week are not the same as they were for that game though. Darius Slayton and Sterling Shepard missed that game, and Kenny Golladay left it early with injury. The Giants have also changed offensive coordinators since that game. Expecting a repeat of Toney’s one blow-up game here would be playing with fire, even if he’s able to suit up, and even if Glennon starts.

 

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

 

QB Zach Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 13: vs. Phi.): Wilson’s return to the lineup didn’t go as hoped last weekend. He finished outside of the top-24 QBs last week against a defense allowing the 10^th-most QB points per game, and this week gets to face the defense allowing the 18^th-most. The Eagles have been a bit inconsistent on the defensive side, but I’m not willing to bet on Wilson breaking through against them.

 

RB Jaret Patterson, WAS (Wk. 13: @LV): Patterson played just 3 offensive snaps on Monday night as Antonio Gibson played his biggest snap share of the season, and extended opportunity for Patterson has been put on hold as the Football Team’s recent wins have put them back in the NFC playoff chase for now.

 

RB Jermar Jefferson, DET (Wk. 13: vs. Min.): The likely absence of D’Andre Swift could mean extended playing time for Jefferson against a bad run defense (the Vikings rank 29^th in run defense DVOA), but he played just 5 snaps last week after Swift exited. You’re basically praying for a TD if you play him.

 

RB Khalil Herbert, CHI (Wk. 13: vs. Ari.): Herbert has averaged 9 snaps, 3 carries and 7 yards per game since David Montgomery returned from IR.

 

RB Chris Evans, CIN (Wk. 13: vs. LAC): Evans carried the ball a season-high 5 times last Sunday, but all 5 carries came on one drive with the Bengals ahead 41-3. I don’t foresee a similar blowout this weekend against the Chargers.

 

RB Larry Rountree III, LAC (Wk. 13: @Cin.): Rountree was inactive last week for the 3^rd time this season. It’s a weekly guessing game to figure out which back will see snaps behind Austin Ekeler, but none of them offer fantasy value unless they score a TD.

 

RB Trey Sermon, SF (Wk. 13: @Sea.): Sermon played zero offensive snaps last Sunday with Elijah Mitchell back on the field.

 

WR Nico Collins, HOU (Wk. 13: vs. Ind.): Collins is playing a starter’s share of snaps, but it isn’t translating to fantasy production. He’s topped 30 receiving yards just twice in 6 games since returning from IR despite playing the 2^nd-most WR snaps on the team in each of those games.

 

WR D’Wayne Eskridge, SEA (Wk. 13: vs. SF): Eskridge saw season-highs in snaps and targets on Monday night, but he’s operating as the WR4 in an offense that has completed just 18 passes per game since Russell Wilson returned from injury in week 10.

 

WR Josh Palmer, LAC (Wk. 13: @Cin.): Palmer was on the field for a season-high 30 offensive snaps last weekend (42% snap share), but it didn’t lead to a spike in production as he finished with 2 catches and 25 yards. The Chargers were also playing from behind all day, so I wouldn’t expect that playing time bump to continue this week.

 

WRs Dyami Brown & Dax Milne, WAS (Wk. 13: @LV): The return of Curtis Samuel took away even more of the limited snaps that this duo was already playing. Brown was on the field for just 7 plays, and Milne was a healthy scratch on Monday night.

 

TE John Bates, WAS (Wk. 13: @LV): Bates continued to play a large portion of the snaps in Logan Thomas’ first game back from injured reserve, but he ran just 8 routes in a game where Taylor Heinicke dropped back to throw 36 times. He’s back to being primarily a blocker.

 

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

 

RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 13: @NYJ): As of Thursday, Boston Scott and Jordan Howard are both not practicing for Philly, and the Eagles face as favorable a running back matchup as the league has to offer with the Jets. The Jets have allowed the most running back points per game by a wide margin this season and have allowed double-digit points to multiple backs in 7 different games. Gainwell has fallen out of favor in Philly’s backfield, but he’ll be forced back into a significant role if Howard and Scott both miss this game, and he costs just $200 more than the minimum on DraftKings for the main slate. Keep an eye on the injury report and make sure the others are out before pulling the trigger, but Gainwell could finish as an RB2 this week if both Howard and Scott sit.

 

RB Kene Nwangwu, MIN (Wk. 13: @Det.): Nwangwu didn’t play much in college and was an afterthought in fantasy after he was placed on IR to open the season, but since his return he has flashed explosive athleticism on special teams with 2 kick return touchdowns in just 8 chances, and he may have an opportunity to play more on offense in the next couple weeks while Dalvin Cook nurses an injury. Alexander Mattison is going to function as the workhorse back, but Detroit has allowed 14+ RB points to role player running backs Damien Williams, Chris Evans, and Jordan Howard this season. Nwangwu is strictly in play for DFS contests or deep leagues that include return yardage points, but the upside is there for a big day.

 

RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Wk. 13: Bye): Chuba is sitting this week with the Panthers on bye, but with Christian McCaffrey done for the year Hubbard steps back into the lead role. It’s true that he’s struggled as a pass catcher this season, and that the Panthers’ schedule down the stretch isn’t a favorable one for RBs after a week 14 meeting with the Falcons, but Hubbard has touched the ball at least 15 times in every game McCaffrey’s missed. I expect that to continue down the stretch, and that makes him worth stashing over the bye week in deeper leagues. He could also give you a valuable spot start in week 14 when he faces Atlanta if you’re unfortunate enough to have one of the backs on a bye that week (Jonathan Taylor, Miles Sanders, Damien Harris, Myles Gaskin).

 

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Wk. 13: vs. Min.): The stat lines haven’t been exciting for St. Brown in the last 2 weeks, but he was on the field for nearly all of Detroit’s offensive snaps on Thanksgiving and had more receptions in that game than all but Jamaal Williams. Jared Goff is another week removed from suffering an oblique injury, and the Vikings allow the 2^nd-most WR points per game. Amon-Ra lines up in the slot on about 70% of his snaps, and Minnesota slot corner Mackensie Alexander is allowing over 15 yards per completion and a 115 passer rating on throws into his coverage. The ceiling isn’t high in this passing offense, but this is a week where the stars are aligned for ARSB to put up over 60 yards.

 

TE Brevin Jordan, HOU (Wk. 13: vs. Ind.): Brevin Jordan’s climb up the depth chart in recent weeks appears to be very real after the rookie saw a season-high 60% snap share and was in a route on nearly half of Tyrod Taylor’s dropbacks last Sunday. That playing time boost only turned into 3 targets for the rookie, but he did find the end zone with one of them. This week, the Texans are a 9-point underdog and should be throwing the ball more than they have the last couple weeks. If that happens, Jordan is a sneaky upside play against a Colts’ defense that has allowed double-digit points to a tight end in 5 straight games.

 

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps guide you to victory in your leagues this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.