Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

47.6 Fantasy Points

For the second week in a row, we have a new season-high fantasy point scorer. Dalvin Cook defeated the Green Bay Packers, and he did not require a whole lot of help from the rest of his team. Cook touched the ball a whopping 32 times, had 226 yards from scrimmage, and scored 4 TDs. He led his team in both rushing and receiving on Sunday, which is impressive when you have two top WRs on your team. Of course, that’s likely to happen when you have 70% of your team’s total offense. Cook had an absurd 1.5 points per touch during the game. He was so efficient that Kirk Cousins only needed to attempt 14 passes – his second-fewest attempts in a start in his career. On the season, Dalvin Cook, the RB2, is averaging an impressive 1.14 points per touch, second only to Alvin Kamara who is the RB1 and averaging 1.16 per touch. They’re the only RBs in the top 10 who are averaging over 1 point per touch on the season.

5 of the Top 10 RBs

Using our drinkfive.com fantasy league as a metric, we see that this week, 5 of the top 10 RBs are not even rostered. It’s been an interesting week, setting aside the fact that Dalvin Cook outscored the 2^nd and 3^rd highest scoring RBs by 5.5 points. The probably-soon-to-be-rostered list contains DeeJay Dallas, Zack Moss, Jordan Wilkins, Nyheim Hines (awesome TD celebrations buddy!), and Damien Harris. On average, they are only owned in 40% of Fleaflicker leagues but definitely helped you win the week if you were bold enough to insert any of them in your lineup. It was a low scoring week, where the RB2, Giovani Bernard, only topped out at 21.3 points. In fact, our guy Dalvin Cook was only 1.5 points shy of scoring as many as the 8^th-10^th ranked RBs on the week. The waiver wire will be active with RBs this week but remember that Dallas will be replaced by returning starters, Moss is in a split backfield, and Harris is on a team that is notoriously bad at sticking with one RB. Finally, I have no clue what to make of the Indy backfield. Clearly Jonathan Taylor has angered the gods (or just Chuck Pagano) in some hideous manner.

3^rd Time as QB1 in 2020

Patrick Mahomes absolutely lit up the Jets, a minor league football team that plays its games out of New Jersey. For some reason, this game counts as an actual game in all historical statistics and for the official NFL record. Perhaps the most fun item from the game is that Le’Veon Bell, Chiefs running back, was the highest-paid Jets player on the field. He would have finished 2^nd on the team in yards from scrimmage with a whopping 37 too. But I digress - two years ago, I gushed about Mahomes in nearly every weekly column, but he’s been mostly absent this year, so let me make up for that now. On Sunday, he had his best passing performance of the year, completing 31 of 42 passes for 416 yards and 5 TDs, good for a 144.4 passing rating. The latter number, of course, making little sense since his performance was basically perfect, but his rating was not. This is the third time this season that Mahomes finishes as the QB1 for the week. What’s amazing is that Russell Wilson, who has played 1 fewer game, is still the QB1 on the season, leaving Mahomes as the QB2 in fantasy football, but the QB1 in our hearts.

7-0 Steelers

There’s not a ton of fantasy numbers to crunch out of the Pittsburgh Steelers this week. This tends to be the case when your D/ST outscores all of your position players. As a team though, they are very impressive. Their 7-0 start is tied for the best in franchise history with the 1978 team, which won the Super Bowl. This team also has recorded at least 1 sack in 64 straight games (that’s 4 seasons) and is closing in on the all-time record of 69 games which was set by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the early 2000s. The lack of fantasy dominance in a dominant team is frustrating for casual fans, but not for Steelers fans, which the drinkfive staff is lousy with. On Sunday they got the best of Lamar Jackson, forcing his first-ever pick-six very early in the game and sacking him 4 times. The Ravens now fall to 2 games behind the Steelers, who should have a very easy time next week against the Cowboys, where, I can only assume, Ben DiNucci will be musing about what horses want when they are hungry.

7 TDs by Two Players

A few fun random stats that didn’t fit elsewhere. The Vikings-Packers game saw 7 touchdowns scored…by only 2 players. In addition to the aforementioned Dalvin Cook’s 4 TDs, Davante Adams was responsible for all three TDs for the Green Bay Packers. The Chargers lost after giving up a 17-point lead for the third time this season, an NFL record for consecutive losses. Tua Tagovailoa started and won, but it was about as ugly as it could be with just 5.72 fantasy points and none of his receivers reaching 20 yards. Drew Brees again holds the NFL record with 560 passing TDs, but perhaps only for a day. Tom Brady is at 559 and plays tonight against the hapless Giants. Finally, Tuesday is a very important day. The NFL trade deadline is at 4 pm ET. Oh yeah, there’s also a bit of an election going on. GO VOTE!

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! While I’m sure most of us are eager for the distraction from the marathon election week, football this week is feeling like a less fun escape than usual as injuries and Covid-19 ravage NFL rosters and fantasy rosters alike. Just among the rookies this week, AJ Dillon and Brandon Aiyuk missed Thursday night due to the coronavirus, and in all more than a third of the league has at least one player on the Reserve/COVID list. Week 8 was a rough one for the rookie class. The top-2 quarterbacks had good weeks, DeeJay Dallas, Zack Moss and JK Dobbins all posted breakout games, and Cam Akers finally got into the mix for the Rams with Darrell Henderson going down with injury, but there were few other bright spots. Brandon Aiyuk topped 90 yards, but top rookies Justin Jefferson, Jonathan Taylor, CEH, and D’Andre Swift all had decidedly disappointing weeks. Is week 9 going to be just as much of a minefield for the rookies? Let’s dive in and take a look at what to expect…

(Notes: All rookies under same header at same position are listed in the order I would play them this week. All fantasy points references are in half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted)

Rookies to Start:

QB Justin Herbert, LAC (Wk. 9: vs. LV): Herbert is quickly ascending to the point where he is an automatic start in 2-QB formats and a solid option in most 1-QB leagues each week as well. Herbert has thrown for over 260 yards and 3+ touchdowns in 4 straight games, and Vegas has struggled to contain QBs not named Baker Mayfield in the last month. In the 3 games prior to shutting down Mayfield a week ago, the Raiders had given up at least 288 passing yards and 3 total scores to each QB they faced (Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Tom Brady). Of course, the guys who burned them are very good fantasy quarterbacks, but from what we’ve seen, so is Herbert. The Raiders have also given up 20+ rushing yards to 4 different QBs they’ve faced, and Herbert is capable of hurting them with his legs as well. Vegas ranks 27^th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA stat. Put all of this together and Herbert is easily a top-10 QB this week, and maybe top-5.

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC (Wk. 9: vs. Car.): Edwards-Helaire has seen a drastic drop in his viability as a fantasy starter in recent weeks, but this is a week where he should be fired up with confidence. CEH has played nearly twice as many snaps as Le’Veon Bell in each of the 2 games since the veteran was added. In both games, the duo gave way to a 3^rd-stringer in the 4^th quarter of a blowout. Kansas City remains a heavy favorite this week, so there is a chance that happens again, but Carolina has just one loss by multiple scores on the season. They’ve also ranked 26^th in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 4^th-most RB points per game. Carolina has also allowed 12 rushing scores in 8 games and a league-worst 7.3 receptions per game to opposing backs. Everything stacks up to CEH doing enough damage against this defense before it gets out of hand that he should return an easy RB2 performance even if it does turn into another rout.

RB James Robinson, JAX (Wk. 9: vs. Hou.): Robinson has been a fantasy gem for teams who managed to get him on the wire at the start of the season, and the absence of Gardner Minshew this week may prove to be a positive thing for Robinson. The Jaguars should lean a bit heavier on the run game early on in this one against a team that ranks 27^th in run defense DVOA. The Texans have allowed the 3^rd-most running back points per game on the season, and while Robinson didn’t have a great performance against them the first time around (70 scrimmage yards, 5 catches, and a fumble lost), I like his chances to be better this time. Houston gives up a league-high 151 rushing yards per game to RBs, and Robinson is usually a lock for 4+ targets as well. That shouldn’t change with Luton under center. Luton had a reputation in college for checking down if his initial read wasn’t open rather than going through his progression. That should benefit Robinson in PPR leagues. He should be a safe RB2 this week.

RB Antonio Gibson, WAS (Wk. 9: vs. NYG): Like James Robinson, Gibson gets to face off with a team he’s already played and not produced against this weekend, and like Robinson I expect better results this time around for Gibson. The Giants have been respectable against opposing backs, ranking 9^th in run defense DVOA and allowing the 15^th-most RB points per game. Zeke Elliott is the only back to top 60 rushing yards against them in the last 6 weeks, but Gibson has posted at least 4 catches or 100 rushing yards in each of his last 4 games. His receiving usage has spiked since the QB change from Dwayne Haskins, and that should give him enough floor that any improvement to his rushing effort from the last meeting likely results in an RB2 week. This contest is in Washington, and 3 of the 4 highest rushing yardage totals the Giants have allowed came on the road. I think Gibson finishes with 70+ scrimmage yards, a handful of catches, and a possible score.

WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (Wk. 9: vs. Det.): I was set to list Jefferson as a borderline option this week, but the news that Matt Stafford has been activated from the Covid-19 list changed that. With David Blough or Chase Daniel at QB, this looked like a game where the Vikings would let Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison run roughshod over the Lions in an easy win. It should be much more competitive with Stafford under center. The Lions have allowed the 13^th-most WR points per game, and Jefferson has shown a ceiling that you can’t leave on the bench unless you have a really good reason to do so. Last week was a letdown game for him, but it’s hard to blame the Vikings for leaning on Dalvin Cook with the success he was having. I expect a much better performance from Jefferson this week.

Borderline Rookies:

RB JK Dobbins, BAL (Wk. 9: @Ind.): Dobbins was fantastic in week 8 as the absence of Mark Ingram allowed him to be fully unleashed for the first time this year. Dobbins played two-thirds of the offensive snaps and turned 15 carries into 113 yards against what has been one of the toughest run defenses in the league (Pittsburgh ranks 2^nd in run defense DVOA). He’ll have to duplicate the feat this week to put up another big game. Mark Ingram will be sidelined again, so the opportunity will be there, but the Colts rank 5^th in run defense DVOA and allow the 4^th-fewest RB points per game, so it’s another tough matchup. Dobbins doesn’t get consistent passing game usage, so he’ll have to get his numbers on the ground, and the high-water mark the Colts have allowed for rushing yards was 72 to Kareem Hunt, and he took 20 carries to get there. Dobbins likely sees enough work to not kill you as a flex option just on the merits of his yards, but he has the chance at a very strong week if he manages to get into the end zone. The Colts have only allowed 3 RB rushing scores in their first 7 games though.

RB D’Andre Swift, DET (Wk. 9: @Min.): Swift played his highest snap share of the season in week 8 (62%), but had one of his worst games of the season with just 1 rushing yard and 22 receiving yards on 3 catches. His playing time was likely a result of the Lions playing from a deep hole and the fact that Swift is the only real pass-catching back on the roster. I’d expect him back under 50% this week, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. The matchup is much better this week. Minnesota ranks 19^th in run defense DVOA and allows nearly 6 receptions per game to opposing backs. I’d expect Swift to have a bit of a bounce-back game. He may even see a couple of extra targets with Kenny Golladay out of the lineup, but ultimately he’ll be a bit of a volatile RB3. As usual, he’ll be more helpful in PPR formats.

RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (Wk. 9: vs. Bal.): Taylor hasn’t quite lived up to the hype that he had coming into the season, but week 8 was a huge letdown from the rookie in a smash spot. The Colts won in a blowout and ran the ball 39 times, but Taylor carried just 11 times for 22 yards and spent much of the day on the sideline watching Jordan Wilkins and Nyheim Hines combine for 175 scrimmage yards and 3 TDs. He also got to see a 2-yard rushing score by tight end Trey Burton. News came out after the game that Taylor was limited due to an injury, and he is practicing in full late this week, but it’s still troubling to say the least. Taylor hasn’t been that effective as a runner in recent weeks, so it’s a real threat that Wilkins could steal a bigger share of the workload after impressing last Sunday. The matchup with the Ravens this week is not a good one, with Baltimore ranking 1^st in run defense DVOA and allowing the 2^nd-fewest fantasy points per game to backs. Taylor is still going to get some work, but starting him this week is a bet that his talent will overcome both a potentially reduced role and a brutal matchup. I wouldn’t go near him in DFS lineups, but there is enough here that you could consider him for a flex spot depending on what your roster looks like.

RB DeeJay Dallas, SEA (Wk. 9: @Buf.): Dallas had a breakthrough game last week finding the end zone twice against the 49ers as Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde missed the game with an injury and Travis Homer played a limited role due to an injury of his own. Carson and Hyde will be out again this week, but Homer should be healthier and the team has added Alex Collins from the practice squad. That muddies up the water a little bit this week for Dallas, but I expect him to still lead the committee after what he did a week ago. The Bills have a reputation as a tough defense but haven’t exactly lived up to it this year. They rank 24^th in run defense DVOA and Seattle has an implied total of 29 points. Dallas doesn’t have much of a track record, so there is a real risk that Homer and Collins take a sizable chunk out of his workload, but if his role is similar to last week he should be a decent RB3/flex play.

RB Zack Moss, BUF (Wk. 9: vs. Sea.): On the other side of the Bills-Seahawks game, Zack Moss appears to have pulled even with Devin Singletary in the Bills’ backfield depth chart. They’ve played about the same amount of snaps in each of the last two weeks, and Moss got into the end zone twice last Sunday. Both backs ran for over 80 yards in the game, but it was the first time in a few weeks that the Bills have played from ahead and been able to run the ball a lot. I don’t expect that to be the case in what could be a shootout with the Seahawks. Seattle leads the league in points scored per game, and the Bills will probably be throwing to keep pace. Moss will probably see 12 or fewer carries against a defense that ranks 6^th in run defense DVOA and gets back run-stuffing safety Jamal Adams this week. He’ll need to get in the end zone to be helpful. He’s at least worth consideration in deeper leagues, but I’d probably look for a higher-upside option.

RB Joshua Kelley, LAC (Wk. 9: vs. LV): It’s been a roller-coaster fantasy season for Kelley so far. He impressed in the first few weeks of the season as the 1-B running back to Austin Ekeler’s 1-A, but fumbles seemed to send him to the bench when Justin Jackson got healthy. Then Ekeler got hurt, and Kelley worked his way back into the rotation, but his inefficient play seemed to have him on the outs again last week. Troymaine Pope seemed to leapfrog Kelley on the depth chart in the second half last week…but now Pope is likely out this week with a concussion. That should give Kelley one more chance to state his case to keep getting touches. He gets that chance in a good matchup. The Raiders rank 31^st in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 5^th-most RB points per game. For Kelley, the big question is how evenly the workload will be split with Jackson. If you think it’s going to be close to 50/50, then Kelley is in play as a flex option in 12-team and deeper leagues. I think he’ll see a little less than that, so I would probably lean against playing him unless you’re desperate. Kelley has just one game in his last 5 with 10+ PPR points.

WR Jerry Jeudy, DEN (Wk. 9: @Atl.): Jeudy’s usage has been somewhat inconsistent in recent weeks, but his 10 targets last week were a season-high. The Broncos were playing from behind all day and Tim Patrick was sidelined with injury though. They could play from behind again this week, but Patrick is expected to return. I still think this could be a favorable week for Jeudy. In addition to allowing the 5^th-most WR points per game, the Falcons also have allowed more yards after catch than any team in the league, and Jeudy is the Denver WR in the best position to take advantage. He’s averaging nearly 5 yards after catch per reception. Tim Patrick and KJ Hamler each average fewer than 3. The Falcons have also struggled with slot receivers, giving up solid games to Tyler Lockett (8-92), CeeDee Lamb (6-106), Anthony Miller (2-41-1), Danny Amendola (3-62), and Curtis Samuel (4-31-1). If Jeudy sees more than 5 targets in this game, I like his chances of turning in 60+ yards and finishing as a WR3 or close to it.

WR Darnell Mooney, CHI (Wk. 9: @Ten.): Several weeks this season I’ve listed Mooney as a sleeper, and there have been a couple of weeks where he just missed having a solid game, but in week 8 he came through with his best game of the year. He posted 5-69-1 on 6 targets against the Saints, and this week gets a much more favorable matchup with the Titans. Tennessee has allowed the 3^rd-most WR points per game and has given up 50+ receiving yards to 10 different receivers in their last 4 games. Mooney has averaged 6.4 targets per game over the last 5 games, and I’d view 50 yards as his floor in this one if his targets are in that ballpark. I expect they will be. Mooney is in play as a WR3 option this week.

WR Chase Claypool, PIT (Wk. 9: @Dal.): The pattern has become pretty clear with the Steelers that if Diontae Johnson plays, the passing game runs through him, and when he doesn’t it runs through Claypool. Johnson has at least 10 targets in each of the last 3 games he’s played in full and averaged over 20 PPR points per game in those contests. In the last 3 that Diontae has missed or left with injury Claypool has averaged 8 targets and 27.3 PPR points per game. Yes, there was a 4 TD game in there, but Claypool found the end zone in all 3 games. It looks like Diontae is going to play this week, so Claypool returns to being a boom-or-bust WR4 type this week unless something happens to Johnson mid-game. Dallas is a burnable defense, allowing the 6^th-most WR points per game. Claypool has shown the ability to make splash plays, and Dallas has allowed 6 completions of 40+ yards on the year. He’s too expensive for DFS cash games given his volatility this week ($5,700 on DraftKings), but he’s a high-ceiling flex dart throw in deeper leagues.

WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Wk. 9: vs. Pit.): Lamb has played 3 games without Dak Prescott now, and in those games, he’s turned 21 targets into just 91 yards and is on track to have the 3^rd different starting QB he’s had in the last 3 weeks. The Steelers have been a stingy pass defense, ranking 6^th in pass defense DVOA, but they have allowed the 8^th-most WR points per game. They’ve had their issues with slot WRs, giving up 4-62 to Jerry Jeudy, 4-95-1 to Randall Cobb, 4-26-1 to Greg Ward, and 5-106 to Willie Snead, but you need to temper expectations here with Garrett Gilbert throwing him the ball. The area where the Steelers have been especially vulnerable has been on downfield throws, allowing 25 completions of 20+ yards on the season, but Michael Gallup is the best deep threat WR on the roster. Lamb is a risky WR4 or flex option this week.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Tua Tagovailoa, MIA (Wk. 9: @Ari.): Tua’s debut didn’t go as swimmingly as it could have from a fantasy standpoint, but the Dolphins rolled to victory against a decent Rams team. Tua benefitted from a defensive TD and a punt return TD, so he wasn’t asked to do much as a passer. He did make a few impressive throws, but the overall numbers weren’t great as he finished with 92 yards and a score on 22 attempts. This week he faces off with a Cardinals team that on paper is a little above average against QBs, allowing the 18th-most points per game to the position and ranking 11^th in pass defense DVOA. They have benefitted, however, from getting to face Andy Dalton, Joe Flacco, and Dwayne Haskins this year. They’ve given up at least 18 QB points in every game that they didn’t face one of that trio. The Dolphins expect to be without both Myles Gaskin and Matt Breida in this game, so moving the ball on the ground could be a struggle. Tua is likely to throw the ball more this week than last week, but given what we saw against the Rams I would take anything above 200 yards and a score as a bonus. I’d view him as a low-end QB2 this week, but there is some upside for more.

QB Jake Luton, JAX (Wk. 9: vs. Hou.): Luton will get the start in place of Gardner Minshew in this one, and although this is a favorable matchup it likely won’t be favorable to your fantasy lineup to have Luton in it. You’re probably unfamiliar with the Oregon State product. He’s got prototype NFL QB size at 6’7”, 230 lbs., but he doesn’t have a cannon arm and didn’t regularly show the ability to go through multiple reads in a play in college. The Texans allow the 8^th-most QB points per game and allowed the last two QBs they faced before the bye to each throw for 4 scores. They’ve had an extra week to get ready for Jacksonville, and I’d expect there to be some wrinkles added to the defensive scheme this week to keep the rookie uncomfortable. We really don’t know what to expect from Luton, but I would expect the Jaguars to lean on James Robinson whenever possible despite reports that they would ‘open up the offense’ with the rookie under center. Joe Flacco might be the only QB that I would start Luton over this week.

RB LaMical Perine, NYJ (Wk. 9: vs. NE): Perine is getting enough playing time that he should be a viable fantasy option, but that just hasn’t been the case. Over the last 3 games, Perine has averaged 15 more snaps per game than Gore, but Gore somehow has out-touched Perine 36-to-32. Perine averaged just over 40 scrimmage yards per game in those contests. Sam Darnold will be out this week, so the Jets will turn back to Joe Flacco. The Jets’ offense totaled 10 points in Flacco’s two starts this year. There is very little upside with this offense this week. New England isn’t a stout run defense, ranking 30^th in run defense DVOA, but with Perine splitting the backfield work in such an inept offense it’s hard to justify playing him in fantasy this week.

WR Laviska Shenault, JAX (Wk. 9: vs. Hou.): Shenault is a player that has been more exciting in theory than in practice in fantasy. He’s shown the ability to be dangerous with the ball in his hands, but the Jaguars haven’t been getting it into his hands often enough. He’s a lock for 3+ catches each week, but he’s reached 50 yards just twice this season and found the end zone just once. This appears to be a plus matchup on paper with the Texans allowing the 7^th-most WR points per game, but when you factor in the uncertainty that a Jake Luton start brings with it, I’d feel better rolling with someone other than Shenault this week.

WR Michael Pittman Jr., IND (Wk. 9: vs. Bal.): Pittman got back on the field last Sunday, but it’s pretty clear he’s got some work to do to get back into a useful role for fantasy. He did play a healthy 58% of the snaps in week 8, and TY Hilton may be out this week with a groin injury, but after seeing just 1 target last week it’ll be tough to trust the rookie. There were some signs for optimism when 7 Ravens’ defensive players were added to the Reserve/COVID list this week, but only Marlon Humphrey hasn’t been removed from the list ahead of the game. I would hesitate to trot Pittman out in anything but DFS lineups. If for some reason Marcus Johnson is out on Sunday (he was listed as ‘Did not practice’ by the team on Thursday but returned to practice Friday), I would move Pittman to the sleeper section.

WR Henry Ruggs, LV (Wk. 9: @LAC): Ruggs is capable of taking any catch to the house, but he needs to start seeing more catches before you can really rely on him to be useful in fantasy. He’s played in 5 games this season and is yet to top 5 targets in a game. Ruggs did have one breakout performance against the Chiefs where he had two long catches and a touchdown, but he’s averaged just 31 scrimmage yards in the other 4 games. The Chargers have allowed 6 catches of 40+ yards on the season, but Ruggs’ individual matchup with Casey Heyward isn’t a favorable one. I don’t like this as a week where he booms again. I would also avoid considering his rookie teammate Bryan Edwards in his first game back from a long layoff.

WR KJ Hamler, DEN (Wk. 9: @Atl.): Hamler may have a little bit of upside this week against a defense that allows the 5^th-most WR points per game, but this matchup favors Jerry Jeudy and the tight ends more than it favors Hamler. Hamler has seen just 6 targets and one rushing attempt in the last 2 weeks in games that the Broncos played mostly from behind. That doesn’t bode well for his chances this week. Everyone in the Denver offense has a little added upside in this matchup, but I wouldn’t bet on Hamler being the guy who capitalizes.

WR Marquez Callaway, NO (Wk. 9: @TB): Callaway should return to the field this week, but so should Emmanuel Sanders and possibly Michael Thomas. The Bucs rank 1^st in the league in pass defense DVOA, and Callaway is going to have an uphill fight to a useful day even if Thomas sits again. If Thomas is out, Callaway could be considered as a bargain basement DFS option or in deep leagues, but if Thomas returns Callaway shouldn’t be under consideration.

WR Denzel Mims, NYJ (Wk. 9: vs. NE): For the 2^nd week in a row last Sunday, the Jets basically took the 2^nd half off. They’ve gained a TOTAL of 67 yards in the 2^nd halves of the last 2 games. If we just combine the first halves, Denzel Mims has totaled 6 catches for 84 yards on 10 targets. That would be a useful fantasy line if he had both of those halves in one game. Early in the week it looked like Mims could be the de-facto WR1 for the Jets in this game, but it looks like both Jamison Crowder and Breshad Perriman will be able to play. He’ll also have Joe Flacco at quarterback. It’ll be impossible to rely on a big game from the rookie this week.

WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (Wk. 9: vs. Sea.): Davis gets a great matchup this week against the Seahawks, who allow the most WR points per game, but he’s pretty unlikely to take advantage of it. In the last 3 Buffalo games, he’s played at least 60% of the offensive snaps each week but totaled just 2 catches for 18 yards on 6 targets. You’d have to be pretty desperate to consider him in any formats this week even with the great matchup.

WR Devin Duvernay, BAL (Wk. 9: @Ind.): Duvernay has been slowly getting more involved in the Baltimore offense, but it’s only translating into a few targets per week right now. He did haul in a 31-yard catch to give the Ravens life late in their game against Pittsburgh last week, but it was his only grab of the day. The Colts rank 4^th in pass-defense DVOA, and I would expect Marquise Brown to get the squeaky wheel treatment this week after complaining about his role in the offense during the week. Brown should see most of the high-value WR targets in this one. With Baltimore promoting Dez Bryant to the active roster this week, there is less chance that Duvernay is heavily involved.

WR Tyler Johnson, TB (Wk. 9: vs. NO): With Antonio Brown being activated this week, Johnson should fade into fantasy irrelevance for now. He was already 4^th among the team’s WRs last week in snap share, playing behind Mike Evans, Scotty Miller, and Jaydon Mickens. Brown will push him down even further. Keep him sidelined.

TE Cole Kmet, CHI (Wk. 9: @Ten.): Kmet played his highest snap share of the season in week 8 but managed to turn 1 target into 2 yards and avoided losing a fumble due to a fortunate ruling by a referee that his forward progress was stopped. The Titans are a middling defense against TEs, allowing the 16^th-most TE points per game. There are higher upside dart throws this week at the position. Kmet may not even play (he didn’t practice on Thursday).

Rookies on Byes: QB Joe Burrow, CIN, RB Cam Akers, LAR, WR Tee Higgins, CIN, WR Jalen Reagor, PHI, WR John Hightower, PHI, WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, CLE, WR Van Jefferson, LAR, TE Harrison Bryant, CLE

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

WR Quintez Cephus, DET (Wk. 9: @Min.): Cephus’s outlook got a big boost Saturday when it was announced that Matt Stafford had been activated from the Lions’ Covid-19 list. The Lions will be without Kenny Golladay on Sunday, and when Golladay missed the first two games of the year Cephus played 76% and 66% of the offensive snaps in those games and saw 13 targets come his way. In recent weeks, Marvin Hall has emerged as the WR4 on game days while Cephus has been a healthy scratch, but I would expect Cephus to play a significant role this week. He and Hall will likely split Golladay’s role this week. Hall has the higher ceiling due to his big play ability (He has 6 catches of 40+ yards and 13 catches of 20+ out of 26 career receptions), but I would expect Cephus to have the higher target total and be more of a threat in the red zone. Minnesota has allowed the 2^nd-most WR points per game, and Cephus costs the minimum on DraftKings this week. There is a solid opportunity for a nice day from Quintez.

TE Albert Okwuegbunam, DEN (Wk. 9: @Atl.): Okwuegbunam saw his snap share and target share drop a bit last week with Noah Fant another week healthier, but he still managed to find the end zone. Denver spent much of the game well behind on the scoreboard before rallying to win, and as a result, spent more time with 3+ WRs on the field than they do on average. The Falcons allow the most TE points per game and have coughed up 8 TDs to the position in 8 games. We’ve already seen that Lock likes to look in Albert O’s direction when he’s on the field, and against this defense, he’ll have opportunities to do so. If you’re desperate at TE in deeper leagues or want a cheap DFS play at the position ($2,800 on DraftKings), Okwuegbunam is a worthwhile option with upside.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Keep a close eye on the injury report this week and the Covid-19 updates. Things have been getting hairy there lately, so make sure you don’t start a sidelined player. If you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

252 Yards from Scrimmage

For the second week in a row, Dalvin Cook reached 200 yards from scrimmage in another dominating performance. This time around, he only needed 22 carries to hit 206 rushing yards, but he still added 2 catches for 46 yards for good measure. He did “only” find the end zone twice, but it was enough to be the top scorer for the second week in a row with 38.2 points. Most weeks I wonder if someone will turn in a performance on Monday night that makes one of my entries a moot point. This week is not one of those times. Cook is now the RB1 on the season with a 10-point lead over Alvin Kamara, who turned in a mere 49 yards from scrimmage in a game where his team put up 38 points. Cook has 13 touchdowns in just 7 games and is basically single-handedly dragging his team out of the basement of the NFC North. An honorable mention goes to Christian McCaffrey, who did not skip a beat and put up 32.1 points in his return, continuing his average of scoring 2 TDs per game. Unfortunately, it sounds like McCaffrey is headed to the bench with another injury.

2% Ownership in Fleaflicker Leagues

There were a number of familiar names on the top WR list of the week, but the one above all the others was definitely new to me. Richie James, who is owned in just 2% of Fleaflicker leagues, and was started in zero leagues that you or I are in, had 3 receptions over 40 yards, including his 41-yard touchdown in what can only be described as garbage time while the 49ers were down 34-10 late in the 4^th quarter. Fantasy football, however, does not care what the score is on the field, so James gets credit for all the 28.9 points that he earned last Thursday night. James just barely edged out Tyreek Hill, who put up his first 100 receiving yard game of the season and caught the 100^th (and 101^st) touchdown pass of Patrick Mahomes’ career. Hill has been around for all of them – he also caught Mahomes’ first TD pass back in 2018. Mahomes is the fastest QB to 100 passing TDs, beating Dan Marino’s mark by 4 games.

3^rd Week as the Top TE

Travis Kelce has been the top TE on a weekly basis for 1/3^rd of the season so far. Not too bad when you consider just how volatile the position is in fantasy football. Kelce is basically a lock for the top spot when he reaches the 20-point mark. This week, and last’s, 20.9-point performances were good for the lead, and it wasn’t even close. He also put up 20.8 in Week 5 and led the league. On the season, Kelce is just dominating the position and is in tier 1 all by himself and it’s not even close. You might say that tier 2 is his as well, considering he has 139.9 points on the season and the next closest player is over 50 points behind him. Darren Waller has quietly been the TE2 on the season without ever finishing in the top 2 of any given week. Waller leads his team in both receptions and receiving yards, though being 8 games into the season and not having a single receiving leader over 400 yards is nothing to write home about.

8^th Most Rushing Yards in the League

Kyler Murray did all he could on Sunday to win but lost to a very surprising Miami team that is playing way beyond any level that people expected this season. Murray added another 106 rushing yards to his already gaudy numbers this season. For the year, he has the 8^th most rushing yards of any player in the league. He’s averaging 7.14 yards per carry. If he never threw a pass, he would be the RB13– 102.3 points come from his rushing yards and 8 rushing TDs. As it stands, Murray is the QB1 on the season with 240.5 points in 8 games. He leads a tier 1 of QBs that include 3 other players, all of whom deserve MVP votes so far this year. Patrick Mahomes got a shout out earlier, but really the major props go to Josh Allen who shut up his critics for a week with his 44-34 win over the Seahawks. Russell Wilson was the only one of the group to struggle, turning the ball over 4 times and scoring his second-lowest total of the season, 24.1 points.

8 Rushing Yards

Tom Brady suffered the worst defeat of his career (35 points) last night and everybody was invited to watch it on Sunday Night Football. The Buccaneers combined for just 8 total rushing yards in a game where none of their players reached double-digit fantasy points. Brady had just 209 passing yards and 3 INTs as he could only muster a late field goal for his team to keep them from being shut out. On the other side, Drew Brees was the only one with a good fantasy game, despite his team putting up 38 points. Brees found the end zone 4 times reaching 22.68 fantasy points, nearly 10 more than the next highest player on his team. Of note in this game was the fact that it contained the two all-time passing touchdown leaders in the NFL. Brees and Brady keep trading the top spot, but this week it was all Brees. He’s now in the lead 564-561.

We're just a couple of weeks away from the playoffs in fantasy football. Now's the time to get your rosters organized and make some tough decisions when it comes to the players that are performing on your team versus the big names that are not. For more discussion on these players, check out the Fantasy Finish Line, Week 10: Playoff Push! podcast.

Curtis Samuel (WR-CAR) Wk 7 @ NO, 14.3; Wk 8 vs ATL, 19.4, Wk 9 @ KC, 22.3 – Samuel is actually trending up over 5 games, going all the way back beginning in Week 4. Samuel did start the season rather slow, only eclipsing 4 targets once in the first 4 weeks. Now over the last 3 games, he has 7 carries and 20 targets. He has scored at least one TD per game during this stretch and finally broke the 100 yard mark last week. Samuel is not the most targeted player on his team by any means, but he is a dynamic player and the team wants to get the ball in his hands however they can. He has at least 1 carry in every game this season, and more than 1 in all but 2 games. Samuel is only owned in 69% of Fleaflicker leagues, so it’s even possible that he’s still available for you to pick up. A key member of the surprisingly good Panthers offense, he has decent matchups coming in his next 4 games, especially @ Minnesota and vs Denver. Samuel is an above average bye week or injury replacement.

Drew Lock (QB-DEN): ECR QB19 (Borderline QB2/3)

Week 6 (@NE): 10/24, 189 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs, 5/-1 rushing – 5.46 fpts

Week 7 (vs. KC): 42/40, 254 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs, 3/8 rushing, 1 rush TD – 14.96 fpts

Week 8 (vs. LAC): 26/41, 248 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT, 2/-1 rushing – 20.82 fpts

Week 9 (@ ATL): 25/48, 313 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 7/47 rushing, 1 rush TD – 30.22 fpts

Going up against the Las Vegas Raiders defense in Week 10 presents another favorable matchup – The Raiders are giving up the 7^th most fantasy points to QBs (21.5 per game) and Lock has a lot of playmakers on the team - including Jerry Jeudy that we talk about below. Lock has attempted 40 or more passes three games in a row and could be considered a borderline QB1 in this matchup against the porous Raiders.

Going forward, Lock has matchups against the Dolphins, Saints, Chiefs, and Panthers, all of which are much tougher opponents to QBs as of week 9 (ranked at 19th, 13th, 25th, and 24^th respectively) than the Chargers, Falcons, and Raiders (4th, 2nd, and 7^th) defensive reprieve that he has been able to enjoy. It’s like the feeling when you’re on a tropical vacation but you have to return home next week to January in Chicago. So enjoy it while it lasts. My prediction is that Drew finishes top-10 in Week 10, but he should be left out on the waiver wire afterwards. Bundle up, Drew.

Jerry Jeudy (WR-DEN) Wk 7 vs KC, 3.0; Wk 8 vs LAC, 9.3; Wk 9 @ ATL, 22.0 – Jeudy’s usage on the Broncos has exploded the last few weeks. He has 24 targets over the last two games, more than the previous 4 games combined. Over those two weeks, he has the most targets on the team, which is always the spot you want your starting WRs in. Jeudy is owned in 76% of Fleaflicker leagues, so check your waiver wire to see if the rest of your league is asleep at the wheel. (Yes, that means that you were too).  Jeudy has really started to show off his route running skills, including a filthy play last week where he threw his hand up as if he was going deep, and then slammed on the brakes to nab a comeback  pass and ran it in for a score. He’s definitely developing a rapport with Drew Lock and just needs to work on bringing his completion percentage up from its current level of 49.2%. With mostly positive matchups coming up to end the season, his only top 5 defensive matchup is against the Chiefs, whom he already played against this year.

Terry McLaurin (WR-WAS): ECR WR6 (Borderline WR1/2)

Week 5 (vs. LAR): 3/7 for 26 yards – 4.10 fpts

Week 6 (@NYG): 7/12 for 74 yards – 10.90 fpts

Week 7 (vs. DAL): 7/11 for 90 yards, 1 TD – 18.50 fpts

Week 9 (vs. NYG): 7/8 for 115 yards, 1 TD – 21.00 fpts

So, with the possible exception of Antonio Gibson who has had some very nice performances, especially in weeks 4 and 7 with 20.80 and 18.80 fpts respectively, Scary Terry has been the only consistent fantasy performer on a week-to-week basis for Washington. In fact, he has not been targeted less than seven times a game this season.

Looking forward to the matchups in the future (Lions, Bengals, Cowboys, Steelers), the games against Detroit and Cincinnati might prove challenging but the Cowboys and Steelers are giving up a lot of points to WRs and Terry has already proven that it doesn’t matter who his QB is, only that there is a QB and he passes to Terry. Which will be the case as long as he’s healthy. It was good to see Smith still involving McLaurin heavily in the passing game and the Redskins are going to keep calling plays out there for #17 all season.

Ronald Jones (RB-TB) Wk 7 @ LV, 10.10; Wk 8 @NYG, 4.6; Wk 9 vs NO, 3.3 – After week 6, Ronald Jones was riding high. He was the first back this season to have 3 straight 100 yard games. He was seeing heavy usage in the passing game, but it all came crashing down in the last 3 weeks. He’s had 23 total carries over 3 games, which is not befitting an RB1 with 92% ownership in leagues. Worse yet, he’s combined for only 66 rushing yards during those games for a 2.8 yard per carry average. During this time, Leonard Fournette has seen more carries (27), so it’s a split at best going forward, with the larger portion of the split apparently going to Fournette. Jones may not be a lost cause altogether, but it’s going to be very hard to predict. If both backs are healthy, you might as well flip a coin to decide which guy will be better. If either gets hurt, the other one will resume a dominant role as the every down back. Matchups this week and in Week 16 are against teams giving up top 5 fantasy points to opposing RBs, so not all is lost with Jones. You’ll just need to pick your spots carefully and hope that the game flow is in your favor.

Jonnu Smith (WR-TEN): ECR TE13 (Borderline TE1/2, used to be TE1 earlier in the season)

Week 7 (vs PIT): 1/4 for 9 yards, 0 TDs – 1.40 fpts

Week 8 (@CIN): 2/2 for 29 yards, 0 TDs – 3.90 fpts

Week 9 (vs CHI): 2/2 for 32 yards, 1 TD – 10.20 fpts

Jonnu Smith is still the TE5 overall so far this season with 78.4 fpts, averaging 9.8 fpts per game. In a world where the point difference between the TE1 (Travis Kelce) and TE10 (Dalton Schultz) is 74.1, more points than the #8 TE (Robert Tonyan) has scored all year, you have to keep what success you can find close to the chest.

Smith returns to must-start territory after finally having a plus day in week 9, but it should be noted that the Colts are only giving up the 2^nd fewest points in the league to the TE position. Scary stuff from someone who is only getting 2-3 targets per game right now. So why is that? Well, the Titans have A.J. Brown healthy, Corey Davis actually doing things, and TE Anthony Firkser has been sucking up a similar number of targets per game as Smith, also with limited success.

I believe that this particular matchup will be a tough one and that Smith will most likely only be able to save his day with a touchdown, and the next few matchups that the Titans have to deal with (Ravens, Colts, Browns) are also in the top half of the league as far as preventing fantasy points from the position. Hold on to Smith for the fantasy playoffs in a deep league, but otherwise he’s a tough sell here. Of course, you may not be able to find anyone better in this year’s TE wasteland.