Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

0 Wins at MetLife Stadium

Well, it’s 2020 and for football fans in the vicinity of New York City, there’s still no victories to speak of. In fact, the last team to win a home game at Metlife stadium is….the New York Guardians of the currently defunct XFL league – though that may return in 2022. If the Giants and Jets can’t get their shit together, it might be the Guardians who manage the next home victory at MetLife Stadium. As predicted, between the Jets and Giants, Frank Gore leads the way in rushing yards with a whopping 174 over 4 games. The only other rushers over 100 yards on the season are both of the team’s starting QBs. Combined, the teams only have 5 passing and 3 rushing TDs. That’s an average of one offensive TD, per team, per game. Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones have combined for 9 INTs, so that’s slightly more than one per game. It’s going to be a rough 2020 in NYC.

28+ Points in the First Half

The Cleveland Browns achieved something yesterday in Dallas that they haven’t done since 1991. They scored at least 28 points in the first half. Now, this isn’t a minor achievement to make fun of, but it is fun to point out that only 4 of the Browns who played in the game are 30 or older and were alive to see the last time they reached that milestone. This year’s Browns, however, seem to be a force to be reckoned with. After getting trounced in Week 1 by the Ravens, they have averaged 39 points per game, albeit against some weaker competition. But hey, you can only play the team that is on the opposite sideline. This year, the Browns are getting the job done on the ground. They lead the league in rushing yards and yards per attempt and have the 2^nd most rushing attempts in the league. The Browns are averaging over 200 rushing yards per game and are also 2^nd in the league with 8 rushing scores. Nick Chubb heading to the IR will hurt them, but in true next man up mentality, D’Ernest Johnson managed 95 yards on only 13 carries Sunday.

1,690 Passing Yards

Dak Prescott, mostly by necessity of his team allowing 146 points through 4 games, has aired the ball out like nobody ever before. His 1,690 passing yards through 4 games is the most in NFL history, and he’s also the first player to throw for 450+ yards in three straight games. Sunday’s performance brings him ahead of Russell Wilson as the #1 fantasy player this season. His 31.3 point per game average and ADP of 48 means that he’s likely on a lot of teams that are doing quite well this season. I will freely admit that I thought he was overhyped going into the season, but I was definitely wrong. He has to throw the ball to someone, and he has gotten 3 of his WRs in the top 30 for fantasy points on the season. If you just go by yardage, those three guys, Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and Michael Gallup are all in the top 18.

183 Receiving Yards

Your Week 4 receiving yards leader through Sunday is not a wide receiver, though he sometimes pretends to be one. George Kittle caught all 15 of his targets for 183 yards, a TD, and even tacked on an 8-yard rush for good measure. The 49ers are stumbling without solid QB play and couldn’t manage very much against the previously winless Philadelphia Eagles. Elsewhere in the strange receiving fantasy stats, 5 players caught 2 TDs each and none of them went over 100 receiving yards. Only Odell Beckham Jr managed to go over 100 yards from scrimmage, courtesy of his third TD, a 50-yard run on a 4^th quarter end-around. Meanwhile, only 4 players topped the 100 rushing yard mark, and 3 of them found the end zone twice. Way to let the rest of the group down, Ronald Jones.

18 Fantasy Points

Finally, we have a look at the D/ST spot for the first time this year. This was a bad week for them, as only 2 teams cracked double digits. The Eagles scored a TD and only gave up 20 points on their way to an impressive 18-point performance. Meanwhile, the Browns – currently a turnover machine with 10 on the season, could only manage 5 points from 3 turnovers and 3 sacks against the Cowboys. The early season leaders at the D/ST position are the Colts (52), Ravens (43), and Buccaneers (37). All still have the ability to just be a crapshoot on a weekly basis. The Colts are in their position courtesy of last week’s 26-point performance, the Bucs put up a 0 in week 1 and the Ravens have only 2 INTs and 9 sacks on the season. Coming up they play Cincy and Philly, so that’s a couple of good matchups to ride with until they hit their bye in Week 7.

Since we’re doing a podcast on Tuesday night this week, let’s return to an old favorite and go over some good waiver pickups for Week 5. All players owned in less than 50% of Fleaflicker leagues, and FAAB bid suggestions are a percentage of your total budget.

QB

Teddy Bridgewater (CAR, 42% owned, FAAB 5%) – Bridgewater is legitimately trending up with improved performances over the last 3 weeks. Now, in Week 5, he gets to face the Falcons who have surrendered essentially 30 fantasy points to the QB position of their opponent every single week. This is a great fill-in if you have injury or bye concerns. Week 6 vs Chi is not great, but then Week 7 is another top matchup against the Saints. Christian McCaffrey could be back by that game as well. Bridgewater is gelling with his receivers nicely and the Panthers are now on a little 2 game win streak.

Kirk Cousins (MIN, 64% owned, FAAB 6-7%) – Cousins had a truly abysmal outing in Week 2, but it turns out that the Colts defense is really good, so we can probably write that one-off. Now he’s got consecutive games against the teams giving up the second and most points to opposing QBs. Both teams, Seattle and Atlanta, are giving up an average of 30+ points per game. Cousins has a very reliable run game that opposing defenses will be forced to focus on before the pass. He’s also found a great connection with his rookie WR, Justin Jefferson. Combine that with Adam Thielen trending up and you’re going to find Kirk Cousins in the top 5 QBs the next couple of weeks.

RB

Damien Harris (NE, 43% owned, FAAB 15-18%) – Harris was quite impressive on Monday Evening Football, putting up a perfect 10.0. Well, I suppose he could have done a bit better, but 100 yards on 17 carries is a nice average. This is the kind of production that will keep you in the lineup on the Patriots, especially with Sony Michel heading to the IR yesterday. Now, traditionally starting RBs for the Patriots is a recipe for driving yourself insane, but let’s just look at their current stable of RBs. Damien Harris is in line to take almost all of the early-down work, provided the game is not getting out of hand. The Patriots defense should keep them in every game. James White will get almost all of the 3^rd down work, and as demonstrated last night, even when he’s playing well, he won’t see much – if any – work on early downs. Sprinkle in a little Rex Burkhead and that’s your rotation. I see Harris as a high floor player with a decent ceiling if he can find the end zone. Just know that when Cam comes back, Harris will probably Cede some goal-line and short-yardage work to him, but then again, he was probably already going to lose a few of those carries to Burkhead anyways.

Justin Jackson (LAC, 22% owned, FAAB 10-12%) – Jackson did not produce much in limited work on Sunday, but he’s been able to produce in the past and he’s definitely going to be given opportunities. The Chargers have always worked with more of a split in carries than most teams, and they should continue to do that with Ekeler out. Joshua Kelley will see the largest boost in production on the team, but he’s a rookie and I do not see him getting 3-down work at all. Kelley has also lost a fumble in consecutive games, and any more of that will see him lose carries. Jackson had an impressive 6.9 yards per carry last season, and his rookie year showed him as effective in the passing game. He’s had a small sample size over his whole career, but now is when he can get sustained work and string a few good games together in a bid to get a larger share of the RB work for the Chargers.

D’Ernest Johnson (CLE, 2% owned, FAAB 13-15%) – Nick Chubb is headed to the IR, and that means that D’Ernest Johnson is the next man up in Cleveland. Johnson looked very good in his first actual game where he got a decent amount of work. This was against a Cowboys team that allowed a franchise-record number of rushing yards. Johnson produced 95 yards on only 13 carries, good for a 7.3 ypc average. Thus far this season, the Browns have been quick to swap between Chubb and Hunt, especially as the game goes on. I expect this to continue with Johnson and Hunt – perhaps with Johnson replacing more of Chubb’s carries instead of Hunt and keeping Hunt in a similar role to what he has now. The Browns are leading the league in rushing yards and are 2^nd in rushing attempts, so their 2^nd RB is a must-own.

Ke’Shawn Vaughn (TB, 41% owned, FAAB 5-8%) – Vaughn has had a rough start to his rookie campaign. Injury and a positive COVID test in the preseason basically kept him out of training camp. Now that Leonard Fournette and LeSean McCoy have been sidelined with injuries, there’s room for Vaughn to show his stuff. He had only 5 touches but did find the end zone. Any RB that can connect with Tom Brady in the passing game has potential for a high ceiling, once his usage goes up. For now, I like Vaughn as a bench stash, though he can be used in an emergency situation this week if you need. The Bucs play on Thursday night and the quick turnaround will make it tough for their injured RBs to return by then. Fresh legs will be at a premium, and while the Bears have a solid defense this year, they have resigned themselves to Tom Brady being one of their co-owners along with the McCaskeys.

WR

Cole Beasley (BUF, 44% owned, FAAB 8%) – Beasley has been very fantasy relevant this season because Josh Allen is playing like he deserves some MVP consideration. Usually, a really strong passing offense can support 3 WRs in fantasy, and the Bills are apparently one of those offenses this season. Beasley had 20 targets through 3 games going into last week and was getting good work until he went out with an injury in the 2^nd half of the game in Las Vegas. Beasley did return later in the game, and the injury came on a spectacular TD catch, so I don’t expect Beasley to miss too much time. This team is just too exciting to stay away for long. This week, the Bills are scheduled to play the Titans, so keep an eye on Beasley’s practice attendance, as well as the Titans COVID testing results. As of the time of writing, the Titans have gone 2 straight days with no new positives, which means that they can open their facilities tomorrow, barring any new developments. I like Beasley as an injury/bye week replacement and a guy you should keep on your roster since he will move up the depth chart if there are any long-term injuries to Diggs or Brown.

Laviska Shenault (JAX, 47% owned, FAAB 5%) – Shenault is a rookie and all rookies are going to have growing pains, however, the Jaguars really like this rookie and are trying their best to get the ball in his hand. He has at least 5 touches in every game this season. He also has at least one rushing attempt in every game and last week put up a season-high of 91 yards from scrimmage. The bigger worry with the Jaguars is whether Minshew Mania is for real or not. After a surprise win against the Colts in Week 1, the Jaguars have lost 3 straight and now must go to Houston to face a team that will be fired up after finally ridding themselves of Bill O’Brien. Shenault is just behind Cole and Chark for the receiving yardage lead on his team. 5 players on the team have over 130 receiving yards on the season already, showing that Minshew likes to spread the ball around. Any changes in the depth chart will benefit Shenault and he is a TD away from a very good performance any week. Consider him a bench stash, for now, to be used to fill in for byes and injuries, especially if his team is getting a good matchup.

Tee Higgins (CIN, 45% owned, FAAB 10%) – Higgins just dwarfs everybody on the field when you see him on TV. He lines up at WR, but wears 85 (why do so few WRs not wear numbers in the 80’s anymore?) and is easily mistaken for a TE. He’s 6’4” but runs a lot faster than you expect him to. He’s an elite WR talent and is just starting to find his groove. Now that the Bengals finally have a win under their belt, they have some very tough matchups. I fully expect Joe Burrow to continue throwing the ball a lot – he is currently second in the league for passing attempts. Higgins leads his team in yards per reception, is second in receiving yards, and third in targets. I expect his target share to grow with A.J. Green struggling as he has. This is a young man’s league, and Green is not that anymore. Get Higgins on your bench now while he’s still cheap. The Bengals have a much softer schedule when it’s time for you to make your playoff push.

Scott Miller (TB, 29% owned, FAAB 8%) – Miller is officially trending up in several categories, including receptions, targets, and fantasy points. The Bucs keep running into injuries, so there’s going to be plenty of playing time for Miller going forward. Tom Brady also seems to be up to his old tricks with a 5 TD game (to 5 different players). With Brady getting in the groove with his new team, there will be plenty of fantasy potential out there. Miller is going to see lots of targets as long as Chris Godwin remains out (for this week most likely) and Mike Evans keeps getting banged up (every week it seems). This week doesn’t seem to be a great matchup for him, however as I mentioned earlier, Tom Brady owns the Bears, so you could do a lot worse than Scott Miller as a bye week or injury replacement.

Tim Patrick (DEN, 8% owned, FAAB 3%) – Patrick is a deep league option, but has all the signs you look for when grabbing a waiver wire player. He’s trending up on a team that has an injury above him on the depth chart. He has increased his receptions each of the last 3 weeks, along with his yardage and fantasy points. He’s also scored a touchdown each of the last two weeks. With Brett Rypien filling in the next week at least, at least he and Patrick have a bit of a downfield rapport developing. However, they’re going to New England, who will smother them on the pass defense. The only solace may be that the Broncos could find themselves down by enough points that they have to throw the ball deep anyways. Grab Patrick as a cheap bench stash if you can’t get any of the players listed above and wait until he has easier games to take a flyer on him in your lineup.

TE

Robert Tonyan (GB, 31% owned, FAAB 10%) – Tonyan will be on bye in Week 5, so he’s not going to be there for you if you need someone this week, but he looks like one of Rodgers’s favorite targets this year. Tonyan has a touchdown in all 3 games that he started this year and put up an incredible 6 rec, 98-yard, 3 TD performance on Monday Night Football yesterday. Tonyan was making the Falcons secondary look foolish, and it’s clear that he’s caught Rogers’s eye. Tonyan will be one of the hottest waiver pickups this week, and if people with big budgets in your league need TEs, you will probably need to double that FAAB to 20% or more to have a shot at landing him. When the Packers return, even with Davante Adams, I expect Tonyan to be a relevant TE1 for the rest of the season.

Dalton Schultz (DAL, 49% owned, FAAB 8%) – Schultz found the end zone for the second time this season on Sunday and he currently sits as the TE8 after 4 games. With Dak Prescott throwing the ball so much and so well, there will be plenty of work for Schultz. He already has 28 targets on the season and there’s not a lot of competition for his spot on the Cowboys depth chart. As long as Dak keeps throwing the ball like he has been, and there’s no reason to expect otherwise, Schultz will be in the TE1 conversation based on volume alone.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’re at the quarter turn of the season (assuming the coronavirus doesn’t derail things), and the rookie picture is starting to come clearer. Each week we’ll have a better idea of what normal expectations will look like for the rookie crop.  We were treated to some dazzling rookie performances from the wide receivers in week 4, from CeeDee Lamb’s 2 touchdowns, to Brandon Aiyuk’s acrobatic hurdle, to Justin Jefferson’s second straight 100-yard game. There have been plenty of intriguing rookie wideouts this season. Many of them are listed as borderline options this week, so please keep in mind that all players under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. I also want to mention that anywhere that you see fantasy points allowed referenced, it’s based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 5…

Rookies to Start:

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC (Wk. 5: vs. LV): If you drafted Edwards-Helaire in the first round of your fantasy draft, the last few weeks probably haven’t been what you were hoping for from him. After a breakout debut, CEH hasn’t found his way back to the end zone and has finished outside of the top-20 running backs in 2 out of 3 weeks. Do not despair. Edwards-Helaire has still averaged 20 touches per game in the last 3 weeks and seen a larger share of the running back touches each week. He’s also through the toughest part of his schedule and hasn’t finished lower than the RB26 in PPR scoring formats. This week he gets his easiest matchup to-date. The Raiders have allowed more fantasy points to the running back position than any team in the league and they rank 30^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. This week will be a great opportunity for a big game out of CEH. He should be worth his price tag in DFS formats and has top-5 RB upside this week in a great matchup. If you can find an impatient fantasy player who is upset by Edwards-Helaire’s start, I would recommend sending a trade offer. His value is about to go up.

RB James Robinson, JAX (Wk. 5: @Hou.): Most people had no idea who James Robinson was before he took the starting gig in Jacksonville, but he has definitely taken the job and run with it. He’s the RB6 for the season and has posted an impressive 40 receiving yards per game. This week he gets to square off with a Texans’ defense allowing the 4^th-most RB points per game and ranking 29^th in run defense DVOA. The Texans actually haven’t given up much receiving production to opposing backs, allowing just 3.3 catches (T-2^nd fewest) and 25.5 receiving yards (6^th-fewest) to the position per game, but a lot of that can be explained by the fact that Houston has mostly played from behind and their opponents have been able to lean on the run game. Houston’s opponents have been trailing on the scoreboard for just 24% of their offensive plays. This week the Texans are actually favored by 6, so if they get ahead, I’d expect Robinson to eclipse those receiving averages that Houston has been allowing to RBs. They’re also a bad enough run defense that Robinson will make some hay on the ground as well. He’s a locked-in RB2 this week.

WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Wk. 5 vs. NYG): The Cowboys have been one of the most prolific passing offenses in the league so far, and Lamb has been the clear #2 receiver in the target pecking order. There has been an obvious effort to get the ball into Amari Cooper’s hands this season as he’s averaged nearly 13 targets per game (on pace for 200(!) targets), but Lamb has been seeing a healthy 7 targets per game himself. There’s bound to be a week at some point where Michael Gallup gets the squeaky wheel treatment and the team forces him some targets, but Dallas throws so much I don’t think that will have much impact on Lamb when it happens. This week Dallas faces the Giants, who have been allowing the 13^th-most points per game to WRs. The one functional part of their pass defense has been James Bradbury, who has limited Robert Woods and Allen Robinson each to less than 40 yards this season. This week Bradbury will be shadowing Amari Cooper. That should help get Lamb a little more work Sunday, and he should be a safe WR2/3 this week with Dallas’s implied total sitting at a robust 31.75 points.

WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (Wk. 5: @Sea.): Jefferson’s seems to have fully vanquished Bisi Johnson and taken over the #2 receiver role in Minnesota with his breakout performances over the last two weeks. Jefferson played mostly in the slot in college at LSU, so it seemed like early production wouldn’t be easy to come by in an offense that has 3+ receivers on the field for just 44% of their snaps, but over the last two weeks, Jefferson has made it clear he can thrive as a perimeter receiver. This passing game still runs through Adam Thielen, but this week the Vikings are going to have to be able to put up some points if they want to keep pace with the Seahawks explosive offense. Minnesota is a 7-point underdog this week, but still has an implied total of 25.25 points. I’d expect them to try to run the ball when they can to keep the ball out of Russell Wilson’s hands, and they may have some success there with box safety Jamal Adams sidelined, but there should be plenty of passing volume for Jefferson to be a safe WR3 with upside this week. No team has coughed up more fantasy points to opposing WRs than the Seahawks so far. He should be a bargain at his $5,500 DraftKings price tag.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Justin Herbert, LAC (Wk. 5: @NO): Herbert finally got the nod from the coach as the full-time starter with Tyrod Taylor recovered from his chest injury, and it would’ve been coaching malpractice if he hadn’t. Herbert has thrown for at least 290 yards every week and kept his team in every game he’s played. They’re 0-3 in Herbert’s starts, but are yet to lose by more than 1 score. New Orleans’ best cornerback Marshon Lattimore is questionable for this week, and this Saints’ defense has allowed multiple TD passes and at least 21 fantasy points to every QB they’ve faced so far. Herbert has shown himself to be a solid QB2 option, and he’ll have nice upside for more this week if the Saints are without Lattimore.  As a TD underdog, Herbert should again be throwing a fair amount.

QB Joe Burrow, CIN (Wk. 5: @Bal.): Burrow’s matchup this week sounds daunting on paper, but the Ravens haven’t been a death sentence for QBs so far this season. Baltimore has allowed 275+ passing yards in 3 straight games including more than 300 to Dwayne Haskins last weekend. Burrow has topped 300 yards in each of the last 3 weeks, and the Ravens secondary is a bit banged up with Marcus Peters and Jimmy Smith both missing some practice time this week. It’s still a talented secondary, and Burrow will have an uphill battle to go over 300 for the 4^th-straight week, but he’s not a bad QB2 option this week. The Bengals will likely have to throw often as a 13-point underdog.

RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (Wk. 5: @Cle.): Obviously most people with Taylor on their rosters are going to be starting him this week, but I wanted to single him out as someone who shouldn’t be a slam-dunk starer. We knew when Marlon Mack went down that Nyheim Hines was still going to be heavily involved in this offense, especially in any weeks where the Colts play from behind. What we didn’t know was how big a role Jordan Wilkins was going to play. Wilkins has had at least 9 carries in each of the last 3 games and has taken a chunk out of Taylor’s weekly ceiling. The rookie has still handled a sizable workload, but as we saw last week, if he doesn’t get in the end zone he’ll have a hard time finishing as a top-20 back for the week. Cleveland isn’t a great matchup for opposing backs. Ezekiel Elliott is the only back to reach 50 rushing yards against them. Several backs have had success catching the ball out of the backfield against the Browns, but Taylor has been targeted just 4 times in the last 3 weeks. You can’t count on passing game usage. I think Taylor projects as a flex option this week that needs to get in the end zone to return real value to your lineup.

RB Antonio Gibson, WAS (Wk. 5: vs. LAR): Gibson has been making the most of his opportunities each week, but at some point you’d like the see the Football Team give him more of them. Peyton Barber has been pushed to the bench, but JD McKissic continues to out-snap him each week. Gibson is averaging 16 PPR points per game over the last 3 weeks and has found the end zone in each game, but he’d have RB1 upside if he was unleashed in a workhorse role. The Rams have been a beatable run defense, ranking 28^th in run defense DVOA, but it’s hard to consider Gibson an auto-start while playing just half the snaps. He should be a safe flex play this week, and his price tag of $5,000 on DraftKings makes him an interesting bargain option this week.

RB Josh Kelley, LAC (Wk. 5: @NO): Austin Ekeler’s trip to the IR should be good news for Josh Kelley’s fantasy outlook, but he fumbled in a crucial spot in each of the last two games and it’s opened the door for the now healthy Justin Jackson to work his way into the mix. Kelley played 30 snaps to Jackson’s 21 last week, and I’d expect a similar split going forward unless Kelley can stop fumbling and can separate himself from Jackson on the field. New Orleans has been one of the tougher run defenses in the league, ranking 4^th in run defense DVOA, so Kelley will probably have to make things happen in the receiving game to have a strong week. The Saints have only allowed 31 receiving yards per game to opposing backs though. New Orleans is favored by a touchdown, so game script should keep the Chargers throwing a bit. I’d view Kelley as an upside RB3 this week despite a less than ideal matchup.

WR Laviska Shenault, JAX (Wk. 5: @Hou.): Shenault finally had the kind of week we’ve been looking for out of him last Sunday with 91 yards on 6 touches (5 receptions), and this week he faces a Houston defense that is fresh off of allowing Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson to combine for 12 catches and 217 yards. I’d like to see the Jaguars give Shenault more of a full-time role, and he still has a floor somewhere around 40-50 scrimmage yards and 8 or so PPR points, but I like his chances to post a ceiling week in this one. He should match up with the burnable Vernon Hargreaves for most of the game, and I love his upside as a WR3 this week.

WR Jerry Jeudy, DEN (Wk. 5: @NE): This doesn’t shape up as a great week for Jeudy, but volume alone could get him through to a nice fantasy week. Brett Rypien is likely to be under center again, and he won’t have much to work with outside of Jeudy. Noah Fant and KJ Hamler will be sidelined in this one, so that leaves Tim Patrick and probably DaeSean Hamilton as the other receiving options. It’s a little worrying that Jeudy was limited to just 4 targets in Rypien’s first start with the Broncos throwing 31 times (Jeudy averaged 8 targets per game in the first 3 weeks), but he did find the end zone and top 60 receiving yards. I’d expect Rypien to look his way more often in this one. Josh Jackson is a tough matchup in the slot where Jeudy plays 70% of his snaps, but the Pats have given up lines of 7-67-1 to Tyler Lockett and 6-84-1 to Hunter Renfrow this season. Jeudy should make for a nice WR3 in a week where there should be plenty of volume for him.

WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF (Wk. 5: vs. Mia.): Aiyuk could get Jimmy Garoppolo back this week at QB, and he faces a Miami defense that ranks just 28^th in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 8^th-most WR points per game so far. On the surface, it looks like a great matchup, but he may have to tangle with the best part of the Dolphins’ secondary in Xavien Howard. The 49ers only target their WRs on a league-low 39% of their pass attempts, and with Garoppolo and Mostert back this could be a game where they get ahead and lean on the run game. Howard was torched by DK Metcalf last week, so there is some hope for Aiyuk, but the limited volume makes me hesitant to rank him higher than Jeudy or Shenault in week 5.

WR Tee Higgins, CIN (Wk. 5: @Bal.): As I mentioned under Burrow above, the Ravens’ secondary is banged up this week and they haven’t been as dominant as they were a year ago. Higgins is working as a full-time WR in this offense, playing ahead of AJ Green, and the Ravens have ranked a pretty average 14^th in pass defense DVOA. He isn’t a guy I would target in DFS lineups, but with the pass-happy game script the Bengals are likely to be dealing with, he should be a passable WR3 option. Baltimore has allowed the 20^th-most WR points per game so far.

WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (Wk. 5: @Ten.): This game is up in the air at the moment thanks to the Titans’ coronavirus outbreak, and that probably doesn’t help Davis if they do in fact play. He played a lot last week with Cole Beasley battling through a foot injury and being limited to just 18 snaps. John Brown has also been a bit hobbled at practice this week with a calf injury. Having the game on Monday or Tuesday would give those guys a little extra time to get right and would hurt Davis’s opportunity. The rookie has shown he can perform when called upon, and Tennessee isn’t a pass defense to fear, allowing the 12^th-most WR points per game. Buffalo is averaging over 330 passing yards per game, so Davis has some upside as a desperation WR3 even with everyone else healthy, but if Beasley or Brown will be limited or sit out, Davis should move up your rankings this week. If your league doesn’t allow you to designate replacement players ahead of time though, it’ll be tough to trust anyone in this game.

Rookies to Sit:

RB JK Dobbins, BAL (Wk. 5: vs. Cin.): Dobbins has been a victim of a crowded backfield so far this year, and I don’t see a lot of reasons why that will change in the immediate future. The Ravens have played in a few lopsided wins already, and still Dobbins has failed to top 43% of the snaps played or 7 touches in any game this season. The Bengals are another opponent that the Ravens should handle easily, and I know the RB pickings can be slim out there this week, but I’d stay away from Dobbins outside of the deepest of leagues this week. Cincy has allowed the 12^th-most RB points per game on the year, but that total is split 3 ways for Baltimore.

RB Cam Akers, LAR (Wk. 5: @Was.): Akers is practicing as of Thursday, but his status for Sunday’s game remains in doubt. If he plays, I think you have to wait a week to see how he is re-integrated into the backfield. The Rams look to be a true committee with no clear lead option, and that’s a situation you typically want to avoid in fantasy. Washington has allowed the 10^th-fewest RB fantasy points per game on the year, and Akers likely won’t see enough work to post a big week this Sunday. Like with Dobbins, those RB points are split three ways. I wouldn’t consider him outside of a desperation scenario.

RB Zack Moss, BUF (Wk. 5: @Ten.): It looks like Moss will be ready to return to action this week, assuming the Bills still have a game to play, but I would take a wait-and-see approach before putting him back in your lineup. If the Bills and Titans play at all, it won’t be until Monday or Tuesday, and that happens only if there are no more positive COVID tests for Tennessee. If your league doesn’t allow you to designate a replacement player prior to this week’s games, I wouldn’t even consider Moss. He may return to his red zone role and faces a defense that has allowed the 9^th-most RB points per game so far, but Devin Singletary performed well as the workhorse back over the last two weeks. There’s no guarantee that we go right back to the same workload split we were seeing before Moss’s injury, and Moss wasn’t exactly lighting up the fantasy box scores before he got hurt – he averaged 7.7 PPR points per game the first two weeks. I would like to see how it plays out before re-inserting Moss into any lineups, especially considering the COVID uncertainty surrounding this game.

RB Anthony McFarland, PIT (Wk. 5: vs. Phi.): McFarland saw his first real game action in week 3 and flashed the kind of speed that the Steelers coveted him for, tallying 42 yards on 6 carries and a 7-yard reception. That performance came against the Texans though, and they rank just 29^th in run defense DVOA. The Eagles rank a passable 15^th in that stat, but they were 3^rd in 2019 and only Darrell Henderson has made it to 60 scrimmage yards against Philly so far this season. I know it’s a dire week at running back but counting on McFarland to see more work than he did in week 3 is a fool’s errand. This is still James Conner’s backfield.

WR Henry Ruggs, LV (Wk. 5: @KC): Ruggs seems likely to return this week while Bryan Edwards likely will remain sidelined, but this is not a great spot for him to have a breakout game. The Chiefs have allowed the fewest WR points per game and rank 1^st in pass defense DVOA. Ruggs has the kind of obscene speed that can help him post a useful fantasy week in 1 play, but the Raiders don’t involve the receivers enough in their passing attack to make you feel good about starting Ruggs this week. The Raiders throw just 40.1% of their passing targets in the direction of their wideouts. Only the 49ers WRs have a lower target share.

WR John Hightower, PHI (Wk. 5: @Pit.): Hightower has led the Eagles in WR snaps each of the past two weeks with the rest of the position group banged up, but it’s led to just 4 catches and 41 yards. As of Thursday, Alshon Jeffrey isn’t practicing, DeSean Jackson was a limited participant, and JJ Arcega-Whiteside was practicing in full. Even if all 3 missed this game, I would tell you not to play Hightower against the Steelers. Pittsburgh ranks 8^th in pass defense DVOA. If D-Jax plays, Hightower would likely see a significant drop in snap share.

WR Chase Claypool, PIT (Wk. 5: vs. Phi.): With Diontae Johnson practicing in full ahead of this week’s game, Claypool may have missed his window to shine when the Tennessee game was pushed back. He is likely to go back to playing limited snaps sharing the WR3 role with James Washington on Sunday. The Steelers have tried to get him involved in the game-plan each week, and he did record an 80-yard touchdown in week 2 against Denver, but Philly has allowed just one pass play of 40+ yards so far this year. Claypool is no more than a low-volume TD dart throw against an opponent that has allowed just 2 receiving TDs to opposing WRs thus far.

WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, CLE (Wk. 5: vs. Ind.): With KhaDarel Hodge sidelined in week 4 due to a hamstring injury, it was Peoples-Jones who slid into the WR3 role for the Browns, playing 44% of the offensive snaps. He wasn’t targeted in the game, but you might chalk that up to the Browns playing with a large lead for much of the day (Cleveland led by multiple scores for all but one offensive play in the last 2 and half quarters of the game). Hodge was placed on injured reserve for at least the next few weeks, but I wouldn’t view DPJ as a guy to add even in deeper leagues right now. Hodge was targeted just 6 times in the first 3 weeks of the season in this same role, and no team plays a smaller share of their snaps with 3+ WRs on the field than the Browns (36%). Cleveland also just called up Taywan Taylor from their practice squad, and he may steal some snaps from DPJ as well. Taylor caught 37 passes for Tennessee just two seasons ago and was a favorite of fantasy twitter. Add in the fact that Cleveland’s opponent this week, the Colts, rank 2^nd in pass defense DVOA and it’s an easy call to leave Peoples-Jones on the waiver wire this week.

TE Harrison Bryant, CLE (Wk. 5: vs. Ind.): Bryant has continued to see his snap share and fantasy output increase each and every week this season, and as mentioned with Peoples-Jones, the Browns don’t have 3+ receivers on the field very often. This all bodes well for Bryant moving forward, but there are a couple of factors that don’t: the looming return of David Njoku and a matchup this week with the Colts. Njoku has been designated to return from injured reserve and could even be ready to suit up in week 5. Even if he doesn’t return this week, The Colts have allowed the fewest TE points per game in the league so far and have faced off with Chris Herndon, Kyle Rudolph, Jimmy Graham, and Tyler Eifert. Njoku’s return would probably at least cut Bryant’s snaps in half, and if Njoku is out one more week even 5 PPR points out of the rookie TE would be considered a successful week in this matchup.

TE Adam Trautman, NO (Wk. 5: vs. LAC): Trautman was a popular sleeper pick for last week as Jared Cook was sidelined by a groin injury, but things didn’t exactly work out in his favor against the Lions. Josh Hill served as the TE1, and Trautman wasn’t even targeted once. He was even out-snapped by another tight end, Garrett Griffin, who has one career reception that came in 2017. Even if Cook sits again this week, you can likely find more upside elsewhere. The Chargers have allowed the 10^th-most TE points per game on the season, but I wouldn’t be confident that Trautman can capitalize on the matchup.

Rookies on Byes in Week 5: RB D’Andre Swift, DET, RB AJ Dillon, GB, WR Quintez Cephus, DET

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn, TB (Wk. 5: @Chi.): Vaughn got his first real action of the season in week 4, and he made the most of it, scoring a late touchdown and finishing with 10.6 PPR points on just 19 snaps. The Bucs’ offense is very banged up heading into this week’s game in Chicago, and that should benefit Vaughn. LeSean McCoy has been ruled out, Leonard Fournette is doubtful, and a number of pass-catchers will be out as well for this game. Ronald Jones should handle the bulk of the rushing work, but he has been ineffective as a receiver out of the backfield. Jones has 12 catches out of 18 targets for just 57 yards (3.2 yards per target). The Bears haven’t given up a lot of receiving production to opposing backs thus far (4.5 receptions and 33.5 receiving yards per game), but with the limited weapons, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Vaughn log 5+ targets and a handful of carries. If you’re hamstrung at running back in a deep PPR league, he’s a viable fill-in this week, and he costs just $1,000 on DraftKings for the Thursday night showdown slate. A strong performance here could open up more opportunities for him in the weeks to come.

RB DeeJay Dallas, SEA (Wk. 5: vs. Min.): Dallas saw his first action of the season in week 4 with Carlos Hyde sidelined, and it looks like Hyde will be out again this week. Dallas split backup work with Travis Homer, but he did manage to put up 23 yards on 4 touches. He won’t be a worthwhile play in any formats this week, but he is worth monitoring and possibly even stashing in deeper dynasty formats. Chris Carson has been battling a number of injuries and Dallas would be forced into a bigger role if anything happens to Carson.

WR Darnell Mooney, CHI (Wk. 5: vs. TB): Mooney is listed as questionable for this game, but if he plays, he’s going to be an intriguing option in deep leagues and DFS formats. The changing of the guard at QB in Chicago looks like it will be a good thing for Mooney. He was targeted 8 times by Mitch Trubisky in 2+ games. He was targeted 9 times by Nick Foles in week 4. This week the Bears face a tough matchup against a Bucs’ defense that ranks 4^th in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 12^th-fewest WR points per game, but their best corner Carlton Davis will likely be shadowing Allen Robinson. Davis has regularly been used to shadow big-bodied #1 WRs like Robinson and has had success, limiting Michael Thomas in week 1 (3 catches for 17 yards), and limiting De’Andre Hopkins late last year (5 for 23). Robinson is still going to command targets, but Mooney will have a much more favorable matchup and should see plenty of work himself. If Mooney doesn’t play, this would then apply to Anthony Miller. Mooney could be a passable WR3 in deeper leagues this week and is a sneaky DFS option as well if he plays.

WR Tyler Johnson, TB (Wk. 5: @Chi.): Johnson has quietly been on the field for over 30% of the Bucs snaps each of the last two weeks. It hasn’t led to any targets, but the Bucs are quickly running out of weapons ahead of the rookie. With Chris Godwin and Justin Watson already ruled out for this week, and Mike Evans a true game time-decision, Johnson seems likely to play a large number of snaps Thursday night. Brady is bound to look his way at least a few times in this one. If Evans is out, the group of weapons will consist of Scotty Miller, Gronk, Ronald Jones, Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Cameron Brate, and Johnson. The Bears’ defense has been solid against the pass (they allow the 3^rd-fewest WR points per game), but you could do worse than Johnson at his minuscule $200 price tag in the Thursday showdown slate on DraftKings.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and keep an eye out for updates on the Bills/Titans game. You don’t want to leave an inactive player in your lineup. Feel free to hit me up on twitter if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

39.1 Fantasy Points

Rookie Chase Claypool exploded onto the fantasy radar yesterday with a huge game, scoring 4 TDs against the Eagles and leading the Steelers to a victory. Claypool touched the ball 10 times and found the end zone on 4 of them, putting up 116 yards from scrimmage. His 39.1 fantasy points were about 50% more than Travis Fulgham’s 26.2 points, the second-highest non-QB point scorer on the week. This also means that the top two skill players that aren’t a QB were almost certainly not started in your league, and probably weren’t even owned in your league. Claypool spread his scoring around, getting one TD in each quarter of the game. On the other side of that game, while Miles Sanders had an impressive 74-yard TD run early on, he managed only 6 more yards on his other 10 carries. The Steelers are still the best against opposing RBs in the league.

32 Points

The Browns have now put up over 30 points in each of the last 4 games, all of them wins. They are 4-1 and are playing well in perhaps the toughest division in the league. This week’s win was perhaps the best of the season because it came against the Colts, who had the best defense in the league going into the game. The Browns have continued to commit to running the ball, cumulating another 33 attempts with Kareem Hunt leading the way with 20. It looks like Hunt will be filling the role occupied by Nick Chubb with D’Ernest Johnson a distant second on the team, considering he has been targeted only once in the passing game all season. Odell Beckham Jr. for the second time in his career had a pass completion, rushing attempt, and reception in the same game. He’s 4 for 6 on his career with 144 yards and 2 TDs as a passer, not too shabby!

21.4 Fantasy Points Per Game

Mike Davis is filling in for Christian McCaffrey very nicely. Davis is averaging 21.4 points per game over his last 3 games, all of which he has started because of McCaffrey being out with injury. The Panthers have also won all 3 of those games after an 0-2 start. This just highlights that some teams are better equipped to utilize players than others. Davis already has 426 yards from scrimmage on the season, his second-highest season total in his career. So far this week (the ever points-y Alvin Kamara still plays tonight), Davis is the RB1 with 25.4 points. He has at least 90 yards from scrimmage AND a touchdown in each of the three games he started and is averaging 7.5 receptions per game over the last 4 weeks. When McCaffrey returns, he will probably be just as good as we expect him to be, but it’s clear that a lot of that performance has to do with the entire team that surrounds him.

22.5 Fantasy Points

Jason Sanders single-handedly delivered enough points to defeat the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday. He was responsible for 19 points in the game, while the 49ers put up only 17. He was perfect on the day, making 9 out of 9 kicks totaling 22.5 fantasy points. This was better than any two fantasy players on the 49ers. Helping Sanders along the way was a bit of the ole Fitzmagic – Ryan Fitzpatrick scored 27.6 points on the day to be the QB2 of the week so far. The 49ers are now 0-3 at home, and 2-0 in New Jersey. Jimmy Garoppolo started this game but was probably not ready to come back after going just 7/17 with 2 INTs in the first half before being benched. The 49ers have a lot to figure out and definitely do not look like the same team as last year. Fantasy value on this team seems to be random at best, non-existent at worst.

19 Passing TDs

Russell Wilson continued his stellar 2020 campaign on Sunday night with one of his more dramatic 4^th quarter comebacks. Wilson now has 23 career 4^th quarter comebacks. This one included going 94 yards and completing two 4^th down plays on this drive to DK Metcalf, the latter of which was for the game-winning touchdown. Wilson now has 19 TDs on the season, still on pace for 60 TDs on the year. The next closest QBs are Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes, tied with 13 on the season so far. This year is also showing the emergence of DK Metcalf, now the WR2 on the season. He’s averaging 17.7 points per game this year, hasn’t scored less than 12.6 points all season, and is clearly now Russell Wilson’s favorite target.