August
Rookie Report: The Fact Sheet – RB Edition
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Football season is fast approaching – we’ve gotten our first taste of preseason action, and while the games haven’t exactly been barnburners it was still nice to see actual football again. Today I’m continuing my preseason look at the rookie class. If you missed my QB fact sheet, you can find that here, but today I’m going to take a look at the running back class. The premise is simple. I’m going to give you some cold hard facts that apply to the rookie running back class based on things like draft capital, college production, and coaching tendencies, and then give you my interpretation of what those things mean for 2021 season and beyond. Since most dynasty rookie drafts are over, the info is going to slant towards redraft leagues, but there will be some dynasty tidbits thrown in as well. Let’s dive in…
FACT:
Since Mike Tomlin took over as Steelers head coach in 2007, their lead running backs have averaged 275.6 touches per year.
In the last 10 years, the 14 running backs drafted in the 1st round of the NFL draft have handled an average of 240 touches in their rookie year.
What it means:
Najee Harris should be in line for a huge role as a rookie. 10 of those 14 first-round picks handled at least 200 touches in their rookie season (and Christian McCaffrey was at 197), and Harris landed with one of the teams that aren’t afraid to use a workhorse back. Only 5 teams have given more touches per year to their lead back over Tomlin’s tenure than the Steelers. All camp reports so far have confirmed that Najee is ticketed for a big role and his 43 catches as a senior makes it easy to envision him being very involved in the passing game. Harris has the upside this year to finish as a top-8 back and should be THE guy in the Pittsburgh backfield for the foreseeable future.
FACT:
From 2017-2020 there were 5 running backs drafted in the 2nd round of the NFL draft that had a teammate who was both, a former 1,000-yard rusher, and was 28 years old or younger. 4 of those 5 handled 14+ touches per game as a rookie (AJ Dillon is the only one who didn’t), and three of them finished as the RB16 or better in points per game (half-PPR) as a rookie.
Nick Chubb narrowly missed the cutoff for this list when he was drafted in 2018. Carlos Hyde was 27 years old at the time and his career-high in rushing yards at that point was 988 yards. Chubb averaged 13.25 touches per game and finished as the RB16 in total points as a rookie.
What it means:
You might’ve guessed that the only running back in the 2021 class this applies to is Javonte Williams. Williams is being drafted as the RB24, while teammate Melvin Gordon is being drafted as the RB28. I don’t believe that Gordon is washed up, and I don’t think he’s going to just be pushed aside for Javonte, but those ADPs are too close together. From 2001-2010, there were 30 running backs drafted in the first round. From 2011-2020, that number was just 11. A second-round running back today is the equivalent of a mid-to-late first-round running back a decade ago, and a player with that kind of draft capital is going to see the field a lot.
Williams posted 1,445 scrimmage yards and 22 TDs in just 11 games while splitting the RB work pretty much right down the middle with Michael Carter last season at North Carolina, and his physical running style should play well in Denver. Williams doesn’t profile as a prolific pass-catcher, so he’ll be most valuable in non-PPR leagues, but don’t be afraid to reach above his ADP for him in any format. You may have to wait a few weeks for Williams to be fully unleashed like people had to with Nick Chubb in 2018, but he’s going to be a solid RB2 and maybe more once he gets the starter’s share of the work.
FACT:
In his time as a college coach, Urban Meyer had 4 different seasons where a wide receiver or tight end logged 70+ rushing attempts.
What it means:
There’s a reason the Jaguars drafted Travis Etienne in the first round of the NFL Draft despite having an established starting running back in James Robinson. Urban has a propensity to use his most dynamic players in a hybrid running back and wide receiver role if they can handle it. He showed hints of it at Utah when his leading receiver Paris Warren totaled 48 rushing attempts in his two seasons there, and in later years went all-in on that role with Percy Harvin (twice), Trey Burton, and Curtis Samuel. Etienne appears to be ticketed for that type of role with the Jaguars.
This is a great thing for Etienne’s outlook as a rookie, especially in PPR formats. James Robinson figures to still be the leading rusher, but Etienne should be heavily involved in the passing game. I already mentioned above that 1st-round running backs have averaged 240 touches as rookies over the last decade. I don’t think Etienne will approach that number, but I’d view him as a rich man’s Nyheim Hines (or Duke Johnson from a few years ago). He should probably be drafted as a borderline RB2 in full PPR leagues, and about 6-8 spots lower in non-PPR formats.
FACT:
Kyle Shanahan has been an offensive coordinator or head coach for 13 seasons. In 7 of them, his lead back logged 200 or fewer touches. In 6 of them, his lead back logged more than 280 touches. None of his lead backs finished between those two numbers.
What it means:
Shanahan typically either has a clear-cut number one back or a full-blown committee backfield. There hasn’t been any in-between for him. For the last 3 seasons in San Francisco, it’s been the committee, and this year looks to be more of the same with a crowded backfield group that includes Raheem Mostert, Wayne Gallman, and rookies Trey Sermon and Elijah Mitchell. That doesn’t even include Jeffery Wilson Jr., who should return from injury somewhere in the back half of the season. Sermon is someone who has been identified as a sneaky later-round pick that has starter upside, but I don’t expect his usage to be consistent enough for that to come to fruition.
The 49ers have had an efficient run game under Shanahan, but I expect a carousel of running backs to be involved, with Mostert and Sermon handling the biggest share of the load. They’ll both have their weeks where they produce, but you’ll be hard-pressed to guess which one it’ll be unless there are injuries involved. I wouldn’t reach for Sermon expecting a starter’s workload, but I wouldn’t avoid him at his current ADP either (RB37).
FACT:
Since 1990, only 7 undrafted running backs have run for 800 yards as a rookie.
What it means:
After the success of James Robinson last season, I’ve seen a few fantasy articles asking – who’s next? Who is the next James Robinson? The answer is probably no one. Aside from Robinson last year, and Phillip Lindsay in 2018, no undrafted rookie has finished as an RB1 since Dominic Rhodes in 2001. There has been some camp hype for Javian Hawkins in Atlanta and to a lesser extent Jaret Patterson in Washington. Patterson is buried on the depth chart and should be avoided in all but the deepest of leagues. Hawkins is the one UDFA who may be worth a dart throw in more standard leagues, but it’s a longshot that he amounts to much this year. There’s no guarantee he beats out Qadree Ollison for the RB2 role. If you take Hawkins in a dynasty league and he does hit as a rookie, you should look to flip him when you’re able. In the last 30 years, only Ryan Grant and Chris Ivory have posted three 800-yard rushing seasons as a UDFA, and no one has posted a 4th.
FACT:
In the last 5 seasons, the average RB24 has scored 167.4 PPR points. Since 2000, only 5 running backs out of 287 that were drafted in the 4th round or later topped that point total as a rookie. 4 of them topped 225 PPR points.
What it means:
Drafting a day 3 running back and hoping for anything more than RB3 production is a losing proposition. One silver lining here is that the guys who have succeeded as rookies have hit big, and they’ve had one thing in common that can help identify them. Aside from Mike Anderson (who had injuries to both Terrell Davis and Olandis Gary in front of him) all the running backs who finished with more than 167 PPR points as rookies landed in wide-open backfields that didn’t have prior fantasy success. The four running backs were Domanick Williams, Jordan Howard, Alfred Morris, and Zac Stacy, and not one of them entered their rookie season with a single teammate that had previously finished as even a top-40 fantasy back.
The problem is there aren’t any day 3 backs this year that fit that criteria. The closest to it would be Jake Funk – Darrell Henderson finished as the PPR RB36 last year – but I wouldn’t count on Funk to unseat Henderson. You shouldn’t be jumping ahead of ADP to take Michael Carter, Kenneth Gainwell, or Chuba Hubbard unless an injury (CMC or Miles Sanders) or cut (Tevin Coleman) happens unexpectedly.
FACT:
During Bill Belichick’s tenure as head coach (2000-2020) the Patriots drafted 13 running backs in the NFL Draft. Those players have combined for just 3 seasons as the PPR RB24 or better.
What it means:
The Patriots have been wildly unsuccessful at drafting running backs during the Belichick era. James White has been easily the most successful back they’ve drafted in that time, with one top-10 season and two top-20 seasons in his career. It doesn’t instill much confidence in the long-term outlook for Rhamondre Stevenson. His skill set has been compared to LeGarrette Blount, which is exciting to consider when you remember that Blount scored 18 touchdowns in a season with New England, but the Patriots have a long track record of relying on a committee backfield that makes it hard for anyone to stand out in fantasy without a crooked touchdown total or a crooked reception total. In dynasty leagues, you’d probably be best served by avoiding Stevenson. If you’ve already drafted Stevenson you should look to trade him on the strength of his two-touchdown preseason debut.
That’s all I’ve got for the running back class for now. Hopefully, it helps give you a little clarity on how you should be treating them in your fantasy drafts. I’ll be back with a look at the rookie tight ends and wide receivers soon, but in the meantime feel free to hit me up on Twitter and let me know if you want to yell at me about anything written above (@Shawn_Foss). As always: good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
November
Rookie Report: Week 11 Starts & Sits
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 10 was one of the more fun weeks we’ve seen this season. We got to see the return of Kyler Murray, the Josh Dobbs train kept rolling for Minnesota, there were FOUR walk-off game-winning field goals in great games on Sunday, and we capped the week off with the Bills overcoming 4 turnovers only to lose to Denver on another walk-off FG due to a 12 men on the field penalty on Monday night.
It was a barnburner of a week with plenty of great rookie performances. CJ Stroud and Tank Dell continued to shine for the Texans, Jordan Addison, Dalton Kincaid, and Jayden Reed got back into the end zone, Quentin Johnston got there for the first time. We also got to see Bijan Robinson get back into the RB1 ranks against Arizona and Jahmyr Gibbs post his 3rd-straight monster game. All in all, it was a great week for the rookies, although it was a bad week to be any rookie QB not named Stroud.
Week 10 saw the QB and WR positions greatly hampered by the bye weeks, but in week 11 it’ll be the RB position. Bijan, Jonathan Taylor, Alvin Kamara, and Rhamondre Stevenson are all on byes this week, and you may be looking at rookies to fill a running back or flex spot to replace them. Luckily, I’m here to help you through and give you the rookie intel you need. Let’s get to this week’s rookie matchups.
A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
Let’s dive into week 11…
Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:
QB CJ Stroud, HOU (Wk. 11: vs. Ari.): It’s hard to find enough superlatives to properly describe what Stroud has done since the calendar turned to November. Two weeks ago, he was the QB16 in PPR points per game for the season and his solid play was a nice story for the Texans. After a dismantling of the Bucs and a shocking upset of the Bengals, he’s now up to the QB6 for the year and is getting legitimate MVP buzz. I wouldn’t expect that train to stop rolling this week against the Cardinals. Arizona has allowed the 9th-most QB points per game and ranks 30th in pass defense DVOA. The only concern I’d have is that Stroud’s passing volume could be low if the game is lopsided – Arizona’s last 5 opponents have averaged just 183 passing yards per game against them – but the return of Kyler Murray should help Arizona stay more competitive and keep Stroud throwing. CJ has tallied at least 1 total TD in each of his last 8 starts, and 2+ scores in 6 of them. He should be treated as a mid-range QB1 this week.
RB Jahmyr Gibbs, DET (Wk. 11: vs. Chi.): Dan Campbell told us that Gibbs would continue to get his touches with David Montgomery back in the lineup, and he was not lying. Gibbs out-snapped Monty in a game both played in full for the first time all year, racked up 112 yards and 2 TDs on 17 touches, and he’s now posted 3 consecutive games where he’s been the PPR RB1 or RB2 overall for the week. I wouldn’t set the bar quite that high this week against a Chicago defense that has been excellent against the run over their last 5 games. The Bears haven’t allowed any back to run for 50+ yards or average 4.0 yards per carry against them in that span, but they’ve been more vulnerable to receiving backs, which works in Gibbs’ favor. The Bears allow a league-worst 15 PPR points per game in running back receiving production, and Jahmyr has about 70% of the team’s running back targets on the year. He should still be a top-12 option even against that stout Chicago run defense, especially when you consider that Bijan Robinson, Alvin Kamara, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Jonathan Taylor are all on byes this week.
RB De’Von Achane, MIA (Wk. 11: vs. LV): Achane is likely to return from IR this week, and in the last 3 games we saw him play, he reached 120 scrimmage yards and a TD in all of them. There’s a chance Miami will ease him back in after a month off, but he only averaged 15 touches per game during that 3-game span, hardly an overwhelming workload. This week he faces a Vegas defense that ranks 27th in run defense DVOA and has allowed the 8th-most RB points per game. Is it possible that he doesn’t keep shredding defenses to the tune of 12 yards per carry? Of course, but you can’t leave that kind of upside on your bench in a good matchup.
WR Tank Dell, HOU (Wk. 11: vs. Ari.): Dell followed up an overall WR1 finish in week 9 with a less efficient, but still effective WR11 finish in week 10. Dell was targeted a whopping 14 times in the game with Nico Collins sidelined but finished with a modest 6 catches for 56 yards and a TD. The Bengals have a much better secondary than the Arizona team Dell will face this weekend. The Cardinals rank 30th in pass defense DVOA and have given up spike yardage weeks to a few WR1s this season. Brandon Aiyuk, Ja’Marr Chase, Cooper Kupp and Amari Cooper have all topped 135 receiving yards in a game against the Cards this year. Nico will return this week, and Noah Brown has been emerging as well, but Dell is the best bet to have that kind of blowup game in this one. I’d expect Dell’s floor this week to be right around 10-12 PPR points, with the upside for plenty more if things break his way.
WR Puka Nacua, LAR (Wk. 11: vs. Sea.): Nacua’s stats had suffered a little bit prior to the Rams’ week 10 bye, but most of the issue was the result of an injury to Matthew Stafford. In games that Stafford has played in full, Nacua has been held below 70 yards just once, and he’s tallied at least 7 targets in all 9 of the Rams’ games this season. Stafford is practicing in full this week and is expected back, and Seattle ranks just 23rd in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 14th-most WR points per game. Don’t expect Puka to go back to putting up 140-yard outbursts regularly with Cooper Kupp back on the field, but the 30–40-yard outings we’ve seen the last couple of weeks won’t be the norm either. You should get Nacua back into lineups with confidence this week.
TE Dalton Kincaid, BUF (Wk. 11: vs. NYJ): Since Dawson Knox was hurt in week 7, Kincaid has rattled off 4 consecutive top-12 finishes, with 3 of them in the top-7. He’s logged at least 6 targets, 5 catches, and 50 yards in all 4 of those games, and found the end zone in 2 of them, and this week he faces a Jets defense that allows the 11th-most TE points per game. There may be some minor adjustments to the offense this week with OC Ken Dorsey fired and replaced by Joe Brady, but Brady was promoted from within and likely won’t take touches away from Kincaid. Dalton remains an easy top-8 option this week at tight end.
TE Sam LaPorta, DET (Wk. 11: vs. Chi.): LaPorta is coming off his worst fantasy game of the season after posting 4-40 on 5 targets in the shootout with the Chargers last weekend, but that was still good enough for a TE15 finish for the week. Backup tight end Brock Wright matched a season-high with 3 targets and found the end zone in that game, but their playing time numbers were not out of whack with what we’ve seen all season. I wouldn’t worry about it being a common occurrence the rest of the way. LaPorta should be safe to fire up as a TE1 again this week against Chicago. The Bears have faced 3 tight ends that currently rank in the top-12 for the season, and here’s how those 3 guys performed in that matchup – Travis Kelce (7-69-1), Logan Thomas (9-77-1), TJ Hockenson (6-50).
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:
RB Keaton Mitchell, BAL (Wk. 11: vs. Cin.): Mitchell continued his blazing career start last weekend with a top-20 finish against a stingy Browns’ defense, but he did that on just 4 touches after head coach John Harbaugh said that he’d earned more work the week prior. The limited workload isn’t exciting, but the explosive plays are. Mitchell went for 30+ yards on 2 of his 4 touches last week, and Harbaugh is again saying that he’ll get the ball more this week. The matchup is a good one. The Bengals’ defense ranks just 29th in run defense DVOA, and with defensive end Sam Hubbard sidelined last week, they let Devin Singletary run for 150 yards on 30 carries, with 5 of those carries going for 10+ yards. Hubbard has been ruled out again. There’s a lot of risk here – Mitchell has only totaled 14 touches in his two breakout games – but there’s also a huge ceiling. If you have any RB starters you don’t feel great about this week, Mitchell would be a worthy replacement.
RB Tyjae Spears, TEN (Wk. 11: @Jax.): Last week Spears broke out of the receiving funk he’d been mired in since Will Levis took over at QB. He totaled just 13 receiving yards on 10 targets in Levis’ first two starts, but he posted 4-42 on 5 targets from Levis last weekend. He also hit a 60% snap share for the second consecutive week, and that playing time level should continue with the Titans a 6.5-point underdog in Jacksonville Sunday. We know what to expect from Spears in terms of weekly workload. He’s going to get 8-10 touches, usually split pretty evenly between rushing and receiving work, but there could be a little bit of extra receiving upside this week between the matchup and the likely trailing game script. The Jaguars have allowed 9+ PPR points from just receiving production to 5 different running backs in their last 4 games. We’ve already seen Spears finish as a top-30 PPR back in 5 of 9 games this year, and I like his chances of making it 6 of 10 this week, especially with so many top backs out with byes.
WR Zay Flowers, BAL (Wk. 11: vs. Cin.): Flowers got back on the right side of 50 scrimmage yards last weekend, finishing with 5-73 on 6 targets against a tough Cleveland defense. His WR32 finish for the week won’t set the world on fire, but it was still great to see him produce in a tough matchup after totaling just 30 yards in the two games prior. Cincinnati isn’t an easy matchup. They’re a middling defense against wide receivers, allowing the 15th-most points per game to the position, but they rank 7th in pass defense DVOA on throws to the opposing team’s WR1. Flowers has earned 6+ targets in 5 of his last 6 games, so volume should still be there this week even though the Bengals are easier to attack on the ground. That tougher individual matchup means I’d set my expectations closer to last week’s finish and be ecstatic if he exceeds it.
WR Rashee Rice, KC (Wk. 11: vs. Phi.): Rice hasn’t shown a huge ceiling this year, tallying more than 60 receiving yards just once on the season, but he’s finished as a PPR WR3 or better in 6 out of 9 games, and 4 of his last 5. He always seems to hit 50+ yards or find the end zone, and this week he squares off with a Philly defense that has allowed the most WR points per game in the league. Rice does much of his damage over the middle, and the Eagles rank 28th in pass defense DVOA on throws over the middle of the field. Of course, that’s where Travis Kelce does much of his damage as well, but there should be enough work in a potential shootout for Rice to put up a solid performance. The floor should be in that same usual range of 9-12 PPR points, but there’s a bit of extra ceiling this week in a great matchup.
WR Jordan Addison, MIN (Wk. 11: @Den.): The return of Justin Jefferson might be coming at just the right time for Addison. Jefferson is still listed as day-to-day and it isn’t confirmed that he’ll suit up this week, but if he does, Jefferson will likely draw shadow coverage from Patrick Surtain Jr. and keep him away from Addison. Surtain just held Stefon Diggs to 3-34 on Monday night, and Denver hasn’t allowed any receiver in their last 5 games to score more than 10 fantasy points. They still rank dead last in pass defense DVOA, and 25th in that stat on deep throws. 22% of Addison’s catches this season have gone for 20+ yards. Volume could still be a concern here this week. QB Josh Dobbs has peppered tight end TJ Hockenson with targets (42.6% target share from Dobbs so far), and obviously Justin Jefferson will still draw a healthy share even with Surtain covering him. How much does that leave for Addison? I’d still expect him to be around 6 targets, which hopefully will be enough to still be in the range of 4-60 with a possible TD. He’s certainly no more than a WR3 option this week, but I think he has a healthy enough floor to be worth a start this week. I wouldn’t fault you if you disagree, or have higher upside options you’d rather play.
WR Jayden Reed, GB (Wk. 11: vs. LAC): Reed’s playing time hasn’t been ideal in recent weeks – he’s been limited to below a 60% route participation rate in 4 of his last 5 games, but he’s finished the last 4 weeks as the PPR WR27, WR31, WR38, and WR12. He just keeps producing despite the limited playing time and this week gets to face a bad Chargers’ secondary. LA ranks 25th in pass defense DVOA and allows the 5th-most WR points per game. The Packers should have to throw to keep pace with a high-scoring Charger offense, and the Chargers’ defense has been ceding 315 passing yards per game. Add in the fact that Christian Watson could be inactive or limited, and this looks like another week where Reed should be able to finish in the WR3 range or better.
TE Luke Musgrave, GB (Wk. 11: vs. LAC): Musgrave’s target totals in the last few weeks have left a bit to be desired, but he’s put up 51 and 62 yards in the last two games, and this week faces a Charger defense that allows the most tight end receptions and receiving yards per game. I know it’s tough to rely on pass catchers in this offense with Jordan Love at QB. He’s thrown for less than 250 yards in all but 2 games this year, but the Chargers allow 315 passing yards per week. Musgrave has been targeted just 10 times in the last 3 games combined, but this feels like a spot where he has a good chance to crack the top-12 tight ends for the week.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:
QB Will Levis, TEN (Wk. 11: @Jax.): Levis dazzled in his first NFL start back in week 8 with 4 TD passes, but the results in the 2 games since have left us a bit unsatisfied. Levis put up zero TDs in those two games and finished as the QB21 and QB26. You can forgive him for the dud against a solid Steelers’ defense, but the Bucs had been getting shredded by opposing passers leading up to last weekend’s game, and Levis was still no match for them. Tampa had given up 27 points per game to opposing QBs in the 4 games prior to holding Levis below 7. Can Levis get back on track this week? At first glance you may think he can – the Jaguars allow the 3rd-most QB points per game – but if you look closer it’s not as promising. The Titans have an implied total of just 16.5 points this week, Jacksonville ranks 6th in pass defense DVOA, and all of the QBs who have tallied 20+ points against the Jaguars are guys who could do it in any given week (Anthony Richardson, Mahomes, CJ Stroud, Josh Allen, and Brock Purdy). I wouldn’t put Levis in that group. Levis is probably still a top-20 option this week, but if you get anything more than 250 yards and 1 TD out of him, you should take it with a smile on your face.
QB Bryce Young, CAR (Wk. 11: vs. Dal.): I know, you’re probably seeing Young listed under a header that has the word ‘borderline’ in it and laughing. You’re not wrong that he hasn’t given us much reason to want to insert him into lineups, especially in a matchup against the Cowboys, who rank 5th in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 12th-fewest QB points per game. Bryce is only worth consideration as a fringe QB2, and even in that context I’d rather not start him. Young has just one multi-TD game for the season, and he’s been held under 250 yards in every game this season. There just isn’t a ceiling to chase right now, even in a game where he should be trailing and throwing a lot. Hopefully Frank Reich taking over play calling duties again will help Young, but I’ll believe it when I see it.
QB Aidan O’Connell, LV (Wk. 11: @Mia.): Like Young above, O’Connell is only in play as a fringe QB2 in superflex leagues. There are some reasons for optimism for O’Connell. The Raiders are 12-point underdogs and should be throwing a lot, the team has been playing better since the switch to Antonio Pierce at head coach, and the Dolphins have allowed multiple TDs to each of the last 3 QBs they’ve faced. Still, only one of Miami’s last 5 opponents threw for more than 220 yards and O’Connell hasn’t thrown for multiple TDs in any of his 3 starts this season. He also offers no upside as a rusher. You’ll have to cross your fingers and hope for volume if you’re forced to start O’Connell.
RB Zach Charbonnet, SEA (Wk. 11: @LAR): Charbonnet has out-snapped Kenneth Walker III for 3 consecutive games now, but he’s not going to out-produce him when Walker gets all the goal line work. Charbs is playing in long down & distance situations and handling about 30% of the rushing attempts, which has worked out to about 7 touches per game in the last 3 contests. He finished as a top-30 PPR back in two of those weeks, but he averaged 10.6 and 7.3 yards per carry in those two games. I’m not saying he can’t do that against the Rams, who rank just 25th in run defense DVOA, but you don’t want to have to rely on that kind of efficiency from a running back who doesn’t have the breakaway speed that De’Von Achane and Keaton Mitchell do. If you’re stuck at running back because of byes or injuries, Charbonnet probably won’t kill you as an RB3, but I wouldn’t be counting on a breakout game.
RB Roschon Johnson, CHI (Wk. 11: @Det.): In 3 games since returning from a concussion, Johnson has averaged 7 touches per game while playing second fiddle to D’Onta Foreman, who averaged 17 touches in those games. Johnson has led the way on passing downs, out-targeting Foreman 11-to-4 in that span, but he’s put up just 3 yards per target with that work. Hopefully the return of Justin Fields will back defenses off just a little and open up more room for Johnson to run after the catch on those receptions, but the Bears are likely to get Khalil Herbert back this week too. Herbert practiced in full on Thursday, and his return to the lineup would muddy this backfield split even further. The Lions allow the 5th-fewest RB points per game, and Roschon hasn’t posted a top-30 PPR finish since week 1. This isn’t a week where I expect him to break that trend.
RB Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN (Wk. 11: vs. Min.): McLaughlin has touched the ball on 71.4% of his snaps in the last 3 weeks, but unfortunately, he’s averaging fewer than 10 snaps per game in that span. Javonte Williams is back into a workhorse role, and Samaje Perine is playing most of the 2-minute offense and long down & distance snaps, cutting McLaughlin out of the high-value touches. He’s made the most of limited opportunities, but his small workload has kept him a weekly RB4. That won’t change this week against a Viking defense that allows the 6th-fewest running back points per game and ranks 12th in run defense DVOA.
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA (Wk. 11: @LAR): Smith-Njigba kept up his recent string of solid performances last Sunday. He’s now hit at least 8.8 PPR points in 5-straight games and logged a yards per target mark of 9.0 or higher in all of them. He and Geno Smith appear to be on the same page now, and his games of 5 yards on 6 targets seem to be a thing of the past. JSN has logged 5 consecutive top-40 finishes and 4 consecutive in the top-35, so you know where the floor is. I just wouldn’t count on a ton of ceiling on top of that this week, as the Rams rank 3rd in pass defense DVOA on throws to the opposing WR3. If you’re comfortable with 8-9 PPR points from him, he’s well worth a start. If you’re hoping for much more than that, I’d consider other options.
WR Quentin Johnston, LAC (Wk. 11: @GB): The Chargers have slowly but surely started to get the ball into Johnston’s hands more often. His two best games of the season in catches and yards both came in the last 3 weeks, and he scored his first career TD last Sunday against the Lions. I’d expect progress will continue to be slow against a Green Bay defense that allows the 5th-fewest WR points per game. The biggest question here is whether or not Keenan Allen will be able to suit up. Allen suffered a shoulder injury against the Lions and is questionable for this game. If Allen plays, I’d treat QJ as a WR4 or WR5 option with some upside, but if Allen sits, he gets a boost up to the WR3 range. Jalen Guyton is not a lead WR talent, so an Allen absence could open the door for Johnston to serve as the WR1. Keep a close eye on the injury report if considering Johnston.
WR Michael Wilson, ARI (Wk. 11: @Hou.): The floor and ceiling for the Arizona passing game have both been raised with the return of Kyler Murray, but that doesn’t mean Wilson becomes an automatic weekly fantasy starter. Wilson finished with 3-36 on 6 targets in Kyler’s first start of the season as the passing game mostly flowed through Trey McBride and Rondale Moore, who accounted for 55% of the Cardinals’ targets. Don’t expect Moore to be the leading receiver every week, but the targets for McBride aren’t going away. This week’s opponent, the Texans, have allowed the 5th most points per game to tight ends, and the 12th fewest per game to receivers. McBride will get his targets this week, and Moore, Wilson and Maquise Brown will be jockeying for position for the rest. The Texans do rank just 28th in pass defense DVOA on deep throws, which plays to Wilson’s strengths, but I’d treat anything over 50 yards as a win here. Wilson is no more than a WR4 option.
WR Jonathan Mingo, CAR (Wk. 11: vs. Dal.): Mingo followed up his first career 60-yard game in week 8 with a total of just 4 catches for 25 yards in the next two games combined. The targets have been there, but the production hasn’t. Mingo was at his best as a downfield target in college at Ole Miss, and the Panthers just aren’t pushing the ball down the field. Mingo struggles to separate in the short area of the field, and his numbers illustrate that. He’s caught just over 50% of his targets for the year, and only 3 of his 23 catches on the year have gone for more than 11 yards. On top of that disappointing production, he faces a Dallas defense this week that allows the _th-fewest WR points per game. There’s no reason to expect a different outcome than what we’ve been seeing from Mingo in this tough matchup.
WR Trey Palmer, TB (Wk. 11: @SF): Palmer has emerged in recent weeks as a regular contributor in the Bucs’ passing game behind Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, but that’s meant just 4.6 targets per game in the last 5 games, and more than 25 yards just twice. The 49ers’ defense looked like a different animal last week with Chase Young teaming with Nick Bosa to form a ferocious pass rush. San Francisco was able to generate pressure on 25% of Trevor Lawrence’s dropbacks last week despite blitzing on just 4 of them. Any time you can get pressure without blitzing, it makes it harder to find open receivers to get the ball too. You’re going to need a touchdown from Palmer to feel good about starting him, and thanks to that improved SF defense, the Bucs have an implied point total of just 15.25 points this week. That’s just not high enough to bet on a TD from an ancillary player.
TE Michael Mayer, LV (Wk. 11: @Mia.): Mayer found the end zone last week and finished as the TE7, but it’s now been 4 straight games with fewer than 20 receiving yards for the rookie. The Raiders may be throwing more this week against a Miami team that has an implied point total of nearly 30 points and allows the 10th-most TE points per game, so don’t be surprised if Mayer finds himself in the 30–40-yard range, but he’ll need a touchdown for you to feel good about starting him. That will be hard to count on since the Raiders have an implied point total of just 17.75.
Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:
QB Tommy DeVito, NYG (Wk. 11: @Was.): With Daniel Jones and Tyrod Taylor both on IR, it should be DeVito under center again for the Giants. The matchup is a great one against a Commanders’ defense that allows the most QB points per game in the league and ranks 31st in pass defense DVOA, but how do you trust a QB who has averaged less than 5 yards per attempt so far this season when his own coaches don’t trust him to throw the ball? They’ve run the ball on about 80% of DeVito’s snaps when the Giants are leading, tied, or trailing by 7 points or less on the scoreboard, and they’ve run it just over 50% of the time when they’re trailing by 14+ points. It’s true that two of DeVito’s games have come against excellent defenses (Jets & Cowboys), but the play calling makes it clear that they’re trying to hide DeVito. If you’re extremely desperate, you could plug him in as a QB2 and hope that he manages to post a respectable game in a plus matchup – he has shown some rushing upside – but he’s arguably the QB28 for the week.
QB Tyson Bagent, CHI (Wk. 11: @Det.): Bagent’s run as the Bears’ starter may be over as Justin Fields looks set to return from a thumb injury this week. Even if he were to get another start this week, Bagent has finished outside the top-20 QBs in 3 of his 4 starts and faces a Detroit defense that ranks 10th in pass defense DVOA.
RB Emari Demercado, ARI (Wk. 11: @Hou.): Demercado has been out with a toe injury the last couple weeks, and the starting job he had at the time of the injury is no longer available with James Conner back in the lineup. With Conner back in week 10, the Cardinals’ backup running backs combined for just 3 touches, and there’s no guarantee that Demercado will get the RB2 role all to himself when he returns. He’s not worth consideration for now with Conner healthy.
RB Tank Bigsby, JAX (Wk. 11: vs. Ten.): Bigsby hasn’t reached 5 touches in any game since week 1, and he hasn’t logged a carry inside the 5-yard line since week 3. He’s just an Etienne handcuff.
WR Andrei Iosivas, CIN (Wk. 11: @Bal.): I whiffed on Iosivas last week, expecting him to play a bigger role with Tee Higgins sidelined. I wasn’t counting on anything more than a 40% route participation rate and a few targets, but he was at 26% and logged just 1 catch-less target. He’ll get a chance at a do-over this week with Higgins unlikely to play Thursday on a short week, but I’m not going back to the well this week in a tougher matchup. The Ravens rank 2nd in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 6th-fewest WR points per game. I wouldn’t be shocked if he puts up the game I expected for him last week this time around, but he’ll have to do it from my bench.
Update: Iosivas has been ruled out this week with a knee injury
WR Marvin Mims Jr., DEN (Wk. 11: vs. Min.): Mims has seen his playing time increase in recent weeks, logging route participation rates of 45%, 41%, and 76% in the last 3 games (his 3 highest marks of the season), but the targets and production haven’t increased with it. In the first 4 games of the season, Mims was targeted on 11 out of 39 routes run and totaled 242 receiving yards on those opportunities. In the last 5 games, he’s run 76 routes and totaled just 4 targets and 4 receiving yards. The Broncos seem to have forgotten about Mims’ game-breaking ability, and for now there’s not much reason to use him in any lineups. The 76% route participation rate is a great sign, but we need to see it start to translate into opportunities and production.
WR Tre Tucker, LV (Wk. 11: @Mia.): Tucker is no more than a deep ball dart throw this week. 3 of his 12 touches for the season have gone for 30+ yards, but he’s operating as the Raider’s WR4 behind Hunter Renfrow, and the Dolphins rank 10th in pass defense DVOA on deep throws. I wouldn’t count on Tucker getting a big play in this game, and he hasn’t topped 20 scrimmage yards in the games where he hasn’t hit a big play.
WR Jalin Hyatt, NYG (Wk. 11: @Was.): Hyatt’s fantasy momentum has all but vanished with Tommy DeVito under center. He’s totaled just 2 catches for 19 yards on 6 targets in the last 3 games. He’s a situational deep threat with a QB who can’t challenge defenses down the field. DeVito has just 3 completions of more than 13 yards on 54 passing attempts this season. This is a matchup where Hyatt would have some sneaky upside if he had DJ or Tyrod, as the Commanders rank 21st in pass defense DVOA on deep throws, but I can’t in good conscience tell you to roll those dice.
WR Jake Bobo, SEA (Wk. 11: @LAR): Bobo is yet to handle more than 3 touches in any game that the team’s top 3 receivers were all healthy for. He had a splash performance in week 7 with DK Metcalf sidelined, but he’s totaled just 36 receiving yards and a short rushing TD in 3 games since then and hasn’t hit a 30% route participation rate in any of those games. He’s a low volume TD dart throw option.
WR Tyler Scott, CHI (Wk. 11: @Det.): With the return of Equanimeous St. Brown from IR in week 10, Scott saw his route participation rate dip to just 35%. He wasn’t producing for fantasy when that number was over 60% (his season-high is 5.3 PPR points in a game), and he’s certainly less likely to produce now.
WR Cedric Tillman, CLE (Wk. 11: vs. Pit.): I might’ve liked Tillman as a sneaky DFS option this week if Deshaun Watson were going to be at QB, but Watson suffered a season-ending shoulder injury last weekend and it’ll be rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson instead. Tillman was all the way up to a 91% route participation rate last weekend against Baltimore, and while he didn’t turn that into any fantasy points, his opponent this week ranks 29th in pass defense DVOA on throws to the opponent’s WR3. With DTR under center, that likely won’t matter. Thompson-Robinson averaged just 3.4 yards per attempt in his only start this season and he leaned on Amari Cooper and David Njoku. I’d expect similar results here. If Tillman catches more than a couple passes it’ll be a pleasant surprise.
WR Jalen Brooks, DAL (Wk. 11: @Car.): Brooks came out of nowhere to tally 4 catches for 39 yards last Sunday after running just one route in the prior 6 games combined. Don’t be fooled into thinking he has a role now. He had just one catch before the Cowboys were up by 3 touchdowns, and just 2 catches before Cooper Rush entered the game in 4th quarter garbage time. He’s still the team’s WR5 who won’t see the field much when games are competitive.
TE Luke Schoonmaker, DAL (Wk. 11: @Car.): Schoonmaker keeps putting up his one target per game. He’s now earned just 9 targets in 9 games in limited playing time this season and caught just 3 of them. He’ll need a Jake Ferguson injury to be worth consideration.
Rookies on Byes in Week 11: RB Bijan Robinson, ATL, RB Kendre Miller, NO, WR Josh Downs, IND, WR Demario Douglas, NE
Rookies to sit who are injured or have had very limited or non-existent roles: RB Deuce Vaughn, DAL, RB Chase Brown, CIN, RB Eric Gray, NYG, RB Sean Tucker, TB, RB Chris Rodriguez Jr., WAS, RB Elijah Dotson, LAC, RB Israel Abanikanda, NYJ, RB Christopher Brooks, MIA, WR Derius Davis, LAC, WR Rakim Jarrett, TB, WR Xavier Hutchinson, HOU, WR Ronnie Bell, SF, TE Darnell Washington, PIT, TE Payne Durham, TB
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson, CLE (Wk. 11: vs. Pit.): I mention Thompson-Robinson here because it sounds like he’ll be the starter going forward, and there are a couple soft spots in the schedule where he may be a serviceable QB2 option (against Denver and Chicago). He’s worth picking up in deeper superflex leagues. I don’t feel great starting him this week though against a Pittsburgh defense that ranks 8th in pass defense DVOA. DTR threw 3 interceptions in his only start this year and threw for just 3.4 yards per attempt, and the Steelers are tied for 6th in the league in interceptions. There’s rushing upside here, but it’ll take a fair number of rushing yards for DTR to find his way to a useful fantasy game if he’s got to overcome a couple turnovers as well. I’d prefer not to have to use him as a QB2 this week.
RB DeWayne McBride, MIN (Wk. 11: @Den.): The Vikings’ injury woes at running back continued to mount last week as Alexander Mattison suffered a concussion, leaving the team with just Ty Chandler and Kene Nwangwu at the position to finish the game. Mattison is unlikely to get cleared in time to face the Broncos. Nwangwu is mostly a special teamer, so it’s possible that the Vikings elevate a running back from the practice squad right into the RB2 role behind Chandler. They did sign Myles Gaskin back onto that squad this week, but I’d expect McBride to be the likelier player to be elevated. I wouldn’t expect a huge workload for McBride if he’s activated, maybe 6-8 touches behind Chandler, but he should cost next to nothing in DraftKings showdown contests and gets a good matchup. Denver has been improved on defense in recent weeks, but they’ve still allowed the most running back points per game and were carved up for 177 yards on 21 carries on Monday night by James Cook and Latavius Murray.
WR Dontayvion Wicks, GB (Wk. 11: vs. LAC): Wicks has continued to linger around and be a headache for fantasy players who are starting the other GB receivers, but he has a chance to be more than that this week with Christian Watson questionable with a shoulder injury. Wicks has logged route participation rates above 45% in each of the last two weeks and put up top-36 PPR finishes in each game. This week the Packers face a Charger defense that allows the 5th-most WR points per game and hasn’t been able to stop anyone in the passing game this season. Wicks is still to volatile to trust as anything more than a WR5 if everyone is active, but he slides up into the WR3/4 range if Watson sits out.
WR Xavier Gipson, NYJ (Wk. 11: @Buf.): Gipson has quietly worked his way into significant playing time in the Jets’ offense. New York traded Mecole Hardman back to the Chiefs and demoted Randall Cobb (a healthy scratch the last two weeks), opening up the WR3 role behind Garrett Wilson and Allen Lazard. Gipson has stepped into that void in the lineup, logging route participation rates of 62% and 74% in the last two weeks. That doesn’t mean a ton for most normal leagues - the WR3 in this passing game is only seeing a few targets per week, targets from Zach Wilson at that – but Gipson has value in deep leagues that give meaningful points for return yards. Xavier has averaged nearly 40 return yards per game for the season and 28 receiving yards per game in the last two weeks. This week has some extra upside for Gipson. The Bills have allowed the 3rd-most kick return yards and rank 29th in pass defense DVOA on deep throws. Gipson putting up a long catch or long kick return isn’t out of the question in this game.
WR A.T. Perry, NO (Wk. 11: Bye): Perry didn’t play his first offensive snap of the season until week 8, and didn’t earn his first target until last Sunday, but he may find himself starting in 3-wide receiver sets for the Saints for a while. Michael Thomas suffered a knee injury early on against Minnesota that the team has referred to as “fairly significant.” Perry stepped in to replace him and posted 2-38-1 on 4 targets, and more importantly was in a route on 89% of the team’s passing dropbacks. The Saints are on a bye this week, so Perry likely won’t be a high priority waiver claim for most teams, but Thomas has a track record of lingering injuries and will likely miss at least a couple of games. Perry will have plenty of target competition from Olave, Kamara, Shaheed and Taysom Hill, but the Saints are 3rd in the NFL in passing attempts, and any receiver in a full-time role in an offense that throws that much is worth a waiver claim in deeper leagues. Perry was a high-volume target in college at Wake Forest and will have a chance to make an impact.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.
November
Rookie Report: Week 12 Starts & Sits
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! This week is Thanksgiving, a time for feasts, family, and football, but it’s also a tricky week to manage lineups due to games in time slots that are out of the ordinary. There are four island games across Thursday and Friday, so make sure you know who plays at what times and set lineups accordingly. You don’t want to be busy with holiday festivities and forget to check if a player like De’Von Achane, Geno Smith, or AJ Dillon is good to go. This is the stretch run of the fantasy season with just 3 regular season weeks left, so you don’t want to make a crucial mistake and leave an injured player in the lineup Thursday or Friday, and you don’t want to leave those guys in the flex spots either if you have other guys who are questionable. The way injuries have gone this season, you’d be smart to give yourself as much lineup flexibility as possible.
Week 11 got started last Thursday with a couple of massive additions to the injury report, as Joe Burrow and Mark Andrews each went down with season-ending injuries, and it didn’t end there. De’Von Achane, Aaron Jones, Kenneth Walker III, D’Onta Foreman, Cooper Kupp, Darius Slayton, and Geno Smith all exited their games with injuries on Sunday. It did end up being another compelling week of close games (8 games decided by one score), but the injuries certainly put a damper on it for fantasy players. The scheduling gods were kind this week by giving us a full 16-game slate before returning to byes in week 13, but we may need that full slate to find necessary injury replacements.
Luckily, I’m here to help you identify some rookies you can use as those helpful replacements that you’ll be thankful for this week.
A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
Let’s get into week 12…
Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:
QB CJ Stroud, HOU (Wk. 12: vs. Jax.): Stroud threw more interceptions last week than he had in his first 9 games combined, but that didn’t stop him from finishing the week just barely outside the top-12 of the position at QB13. He’s been on a tear in recent weeks, throwing for over 330 yards in 3 straight games, and this week he faces off with a Jacksonville defense that has allowed the 6th-most QB points per game. The Jaguars have feasted on bad QBs but have allowed 20+ fantasy points to all of the good ones they’ve faced, including Stroud in week 3. Look for Stroud to make another run at 300+ yards, and if he pairs that with multiple TDs he should finish as a top-10 QB for the week.
RB Jahmyr Gibbs, DET (Wk. 12: vs. GB): The return of David Montgomery hasn’t slowed down Gibbs. He’s now rattled off 4 consecutive top-3 fantasy performances, 2 of which were with Montgomery in the lineup. Green Bay isn’t a matchup to be afraid of this week. The Packers allow the 11th-most RB points per game, and Detroit is a touchdown favorite on Turkey Day with one of the highest implied point totals of the week (27.5 points). He can’t be on your bench with the way he’s playing.
RB Bijan Robinson, ATL (Wk. 12: vs.NO): Arthur Smith finally capitulated to outside complaints about Bijan’s usage in the Falcons’ last game, and called 22 rushes for him against the Cardinals, including a couple carries from inside the 10-yard line. I don’t know if he’ll get back to 20+ carries again this week, but he’ll almost certainly approach 20 total touches. The matchup looks tough on paper. The Saints allow just the 4th-fewest RB points per game, but they also rank just 19th in run defense DVOA. New Orleans’ strong ranking in fantasy points allowed is due to limiting receiving production, which is usually a strength of Bijan’s game. They’ve allowed the 4th-fewest receptions and 3rd-fewest receiving yards per game to the position. I’m expecting the switch back to Desmond Ridder to help Robinson get back on track in that area despite the matchup. With Ridder at QB, Bijan has averaged 7.1 PPR points per game from just his receiving work. That number was at 1.6 per game with Taylor Heinicke. The ceiling hasn’t been what we’ve hoped for from Bijan, but he’s a solid RB2 for this week.
WR Puka Nacua, LAR (Wk. 12: @Ari.): Nacua hasn’t shown quite the same consistent ceiling in recent weeks since Cooper Kupp returned from IR, but we may see the big ceiling again after Kupp suffered an ankle injury last Sunday against Seattle. Puka averaged 19 fantasy points per game while Kupp was on IR but has averaged just 11.2 per game since his return, hitting 19 or more points just once with him active. Puka was still the WR23 in that span in points per game, but he could go nuclear in a good matchup with the Cardinals if Kupp is out Sunday. Arizona has allowed the 13th-most WR points per game and ranks 30th in FTN’s pass defense DVOA on throws to the opposing WR1, and Nacua has averaged 13 targets per game without Kupp active. He’s got top-10 upside this week.
WR Tank Dell, HOU (Wk. 12: vs. Jax.): Dell has been the biggest beneficiary of CJ Stroud’s recent hot streak, earning 10+ targets in each of the last 3 games and putting up finishes of WR1, WR11, and WR3 in the process. So far, it’s looked like the perfect marriage of player to scheme and QB, and I wouldn’t count on things slowing down this week. Dell has ranked in the top-20 in the league in fantasy points per route run against zone coverage, and the Jaguars play zone at a top-5 rate. Dell should be locked into your starting lineups again.
TE Dalton Kincaid, BUF (Wk. 12: @Phi.): Kincaid last Sunday posted his worst fantasy day since Dawson Knox got hurt, but it was still good enough for a TE9 finish for the week. He’s rattled off 5-straight TE1 performances and gets to face a Philly defense that has allowed the 7th-most points per game to the position and ranks dead last in pass defense DVOA on throws to tight ends. This is a game where Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis might get some squeaky wheel treatment, but you can’t sit a guy who’s basically been a slam dunk top-10 TE and has a great matchup.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:
RB Zach Charbonnet, SEA (Wk. 12: vs. SF): Charbonnet had been out-snapping Kenneth Walker III for 3 straight games headed into last week, but Walker had still been seeing the bulk of the rushing attempts. That changed last weekend with Walker suffering an oblique injury early on against the Rams. Charbonnet served as the bell cow after the injury, playing 85% of the snaps and handling 15 carries and 6 targets. I don’t expect Walker to be able to play this Thursday night with the quick turnaround, so Charbs should be in line for another huge workload, but the matchup isn’t a great one. The 49ers allow the 7th-fewest RB points per game and have allowed an opposing back to hit 10+ points in just 4 of their 10 games this season. Despite the tough matchup, Charbonnet will see a big workload and should be treated as a back end RB2 this week.
RB Keaton Mitchell, BAL (Wk. 12: @LAC): Mitchell didn’t make any explosive plays in week 11 like he had the two weeks prior, but he played his highest snap share of the season and cut further into Justice Hill’s already diminishing role. Mitchell turned 9 touches in that game into 41 yards. Gus Edwards still led the backfield with 14 touches, but Hill logged just 2. I’d expect Mitchell’s role to continue to grow, and the Chargers’ defense has been carved up by running backs in the passing game. They’ve allowed the 2nd-most receptions and 2nd-most receiving yards per game to opposing running backs, and Gus Edwards has been targeted just 10 times all year. Mitchell is a better option in that arena. He’s still a risky option due to his inconsistent workload, but this is a matchup with a lot of upside, especially in PPR leagues.
WR Zay Flowers, BAL (Wk. 12: @LAC): Flowers’ volume in recent weeks hasn’t inspired much confidence in him from fantasy managers. He’s averaged just over 6 and a half targets per game for the season, but in the last 3 weeks, he’s posted target totals of 1, 6 and 4. Don’t press the panic button. He’s still been at 50+ scrimmage yards in each of the last two weeks, gets a perfect ‘get right’ matchup this weekend, and should see a bump in target share going forward with Mark Andrews out. Zay would’ve scored a 68-yard touchdown last week if not for a soft holding call against Odell Beckham Jr., and he’ll get another chance to make big plays this week against a failing Chargers’ defense. The Chargers have been bleeding points to receivers, coughing up the 2nd-most points per game to the position. They also rank 29th in pass defense DVOA on throws to the opposing WR1 and 28th in that stat on deep balls. Losing Joey Bosa’s pass rushing to injury won’t help the Chargers stop those deep connections either. I list Flowers on the borderline as a very conservative estimate for him this week because of his lower recent production, but make no mistake, he’s got the upside for a Tank Dell-like blowup game in this matchup.
WR Josh Downs, IND (Wk. 12: vs. TB): During the Colts’ bye last week, we learned that the knee injury Downs left with in week 9 was actually just a flare up of an injury suffered in OTAs that he’s been playing through all season. Indy limited his workload against the Patriots ahead of the bye, but Downs hasn’t sounded too concerned about the injury himself. After a week off, I’d expect him to play closer to his normal complement of snaps this weekend against Tampa. The Bucs have been shredded by opposing receivers this year. They’ve allowed the 4th-most points per game to the position, and they’ve ceded 60+ receiving yards to 8 different receivers in their last 4 games. If Downs is back to a full-time role, he should have a great chance of adding his name to that 60+-yard list. Prior to aggravating the injury in week 9, Downs had averaged nearly 9 targets per game in the full games he’d played with Gardner Minshew at QB. I’d expect that connection to blossom again if Downs is close to full strength. I’d treat him as a PPR WR3 option this week.
WR Jayden Reed, GB (Wk. 12: @Det.): If you haven’t been paying close attention to the Packers (and why would you?), you might not have noticed that Reed has emerged as the best fantasy asset in this offense. He ran more routes than Romeo Doubs on Sunday, and he logged his second consecutive top-12 PPR performance in the process. The Packers have been creative at getting the ball into his hands (he tallied 3 rushing attempts to go along with 6 targets in week 11), and he’s made the most of his opportunities – his 9.1 yards per target ranks 16th among wide receivers with at least 40 targets and he’s scored 5 total touchdowns. The Lions allow the 12th-most WR points per game and the Packers should be throwing as 7.5-point underdogs. Reed should be treated as an upside WR3 in this matchup.
WR Jordan Addison, MIN (Wk. 12: vs. Chi.): Addison has now played 3 games with Joshua Dobbs at QB (counting the one that Jaren Hall started), and the results have been ok, but not as great as we’d hope for. He’s put up lines of 5-52, 4-69, and 3-44 on 7, 7, and 6 targets respectively, but this week he gets a better matchup than he’s faced in any of those games. The Bears allow 3 more WR points per game than any of the last 3 opponents Addison faced. The Bears rank 27th in pass defense DVOA and rank 30th in that stat on deep pass attempts. Half of Addison’s 12 longest receptions of the season have come in the last 3 games with Joshua Dobbs. It’s only a matter of time before the two connect for a TD. I like Addison as a WR3 option this week assuming Justin Jefferson is not activated from IR. If JJ returns, I’d bump Addison down to a WR4 option.
WR Demario Douglas, NE (Wk. 12: @NYG): Douglas has finished as a top-30 receiver in 3 of his last 4 games, even as the Patriots’ offense has sputtered to just 40 total points in their last 3 games. Douglas has emerged as the clear WR1 in this offense that has struggled to find answers anywhere else, including at QB, where Bill Belichick has declined to name a starter yet for this Sunday. Demario has been targeted 23 times in the last 3 games, and I don’t expect much to change there this week no matter if it’s Mac Jones or Bailey Zappe throwing him the ball. The Giants allow the 5th-most WR points per game and rank 25th in pass defense DVOA on throws to the opposing WR1. The Patriots’ struggles on offense mean a TD will be hard to count on here, but volume should make Douglas a reasonable WR3/4 option once again this week.
TE Sam LaPorta, DET (Wk. 12: @GB): LaPorta posted his worst fantasy game of the season last weekend, and he’s now logged back-to-back games with single-digit PPR points for the first time all year. Last week’s game was especially frustrating as he earned just 5 targets despite playing in a trailing game script with the Lions throwing. Jahmyr Gibbs has been playing a bigger role and Jameson Williams is starting to emerge, siphoning some receiving work from LaPorta in the process, but the biggest concern has been the lack of chunk plays. LaPorta has averaged 10 yards per catch or fewer in 5 straight games and hasn’t pulled in a reception of 20+ yards in any of those games. He’d hauled in at least one catch of 30+ yards in each of the 3 games prior to that stretch. If the big plays aren’t going to be there, he becomes more volume dependent, and that volume has been inconsistent. I do like his chances to get back into the top-12 this week against a Green Bay defense that ranks 25th in pass defense DVOA on throws to tight ends and gave up a 4-56 line to LaPorta in the first meeting this year. LaPorta still has a ceiling worth chasing in a good matchup like this. He’s posted 3 top-5 finishes for the year.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:
QB Will Levis, TEN (Wk. 12: vs. Car.): At least we still have that 4 TD game against Atlanta - things have been quite a bit different for Levis in the 3 games he’s played since his sensational debut performance. He padded his numbers last Sunday with a couple garbage time TDs, but Levis has finished as the QB21, QB26, and QB20 over the last 3 weeks. The Titans are favored to win this week against the lowly Panthers, but Carolina is a team that’s easier to attack on the ground than through the air. The Panthers rank 15th in pass defense DVOA, and dead last in run defense DVOA. They’ve also allowed the 8th-fewest QB points per game, as 6 of the 10 QBs they’ve faced threw for fewer than 200 yards against them. I expect the Titans’ game plan to rely on Derrick Henry. There is an upside case to start Levis as a back end QB2 this week, especially in leagues where you get bonus points for long completions. More than 20% of Levis’ pass attempts this year have been deep balls, and the Panthers rank just 25th in pass defense DVOA on deep throws. They also rank 26th in DVOA on throws to the opposing WR1, so Levis should have success targeting DeAndre Hopkins when he tries it.
RB De’Von Achane, MIA (Wk. 12: @NYJ): Achane returned last weekend from a stint on IR, only to immediately injure the same knee again after handling just two touches against the Raiders. It sounds like he avoided anything serious, but his status for Friday appears very much in doubt. If it turns out he’s able to play, I’d still expect Miami to limit his touches to keep him healthy, though he has the home run ability to put up a solid fantasy line on limited touches. The Jets are easier to attack on the ground than through the air. They rank 18th in run defense DVOA (compared to 5th in pass defense) and have allowed the 10th-most RB points per game. If Achane plays at all, you could roll the dice on him as an upside RB3 if you needed a ceiling play, but that’s a risky proposition.
RB Roschon Johnson, CHI (Wk. 12: @Min.): D’Onta Foreman left last weekend’s game with an ankle injury. If he sits in week 12, it could open the door for more work for Roschon, but that didn’t prove to be true while Khalil Herbert was on IR, so I’m not sure you can bank on it here. Johnson hasn’t posted a top-30 PPR game since week 1, and the Vikings allow the 8th-fewest running back points per game. He’s likely to see a handful of carries and a handful of targets this week while splitting the backfield work with Herbert, but that same workload hasn’t made him a viable RB3 in weeks with several teams on byes, so it’s hard to see that changing in a tough matchup while all 32 teams are in action.
RB Tyjae Spears, TEN (Wk. 12: vs. Car.): Spears faces one of the most favorable matchups that a running back can draw this week, and I think that’s a bad thing for him. The Panthers rank dead last in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 2nd-most RB points per game, but my guess is that means we’re going to get a vintage Derrick Henry game rather than a breakout game for Spears. Will Levis has been struggling in recent weeks, and the Panthers are easier to attack on the ground than through the air, so I’d look for Tennessee to lean on Henry. Even if Tyjae gets his usual complement of 8-10 touches, it’s hard to trust him to produce even in this great matchup. In 4 Will Levis starts, Spears has been held below 20 rushing yards 3 times, and below 15 receiving yards 3 times. I can’t recommend him as more than a PPR RB4 this week.
RB Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN (Wk. 12: vs. Cle.): Over the last two weeks, McLaughlin has posted his two lowest scrimmage yardage totals since September as he was held to 15 yards or fewer in both games. This week he faces arguably the toughest defense in the NFL. The Browns rank 1st in run defense DVOA and rank 6th in pass defense DVOA on throws to opposing backs. That defense has shown cracks in recent weeks, as Zach Charbonnet, Kenneth Walker III, Keaton Mitchell, and Jaylen Warren have all had efficient days against them with over 7.5 yards per touch in the last 3 weeks, but McLaughlin will be hard to count on even if he’s efficient. The 40–50-yard ceiling we’ve seen from him when Javonte Williams is in the lineup just isn’t enough upside to chase in a week with no byes.
WR Rashee Rice, KC (Wk. 12: @LV): It’s been curious that the Chiefs haven’t given Rice a bigger workload in recent weeks as they’ve been searching for someone, anyone, from their WR group to step up. Rice has been easily the most efficient receiver of the group, but he’s logged a route participation rate above 60% just once all year, and just last week we saw Justin Watson get peppered with 11 targets. Rice’s target rate and red zone usage has been strong enough that he’s finished as a PPR WR3 or better in 6 out of 10 games this year, but he’s pulled in more than 4 catches in a game just twice, and more than 60 receiving yards just once. The Raiders’ pass defense isn’t as bad as you might think, allowing the 12th-fewest WR points per game and ranking 14th in pass defense DVOA. You could bet on Rashee’s floor getting him to a WR3 finish again this week, but I’d opt to look elsewhere with no byes. There just hasn’t been a ton of ceiling here.
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA (Wk. 12: vs. SF): JSN has been about as steady as they come when it comes to rookie production in recent weeks. He’s settled into the Seattle WR3 role nicely, and every week it seems like you can count on 5-7 targets, 3-5 catches, and 40-60 receiving yards. He’s been right around that range for 6 straight games now, but those totals aren’t going to make for a great fantasy starter unless he gets in the end zone. Tyler Boyd is the only starting slot receiver who has scored a TD against the 49ers this season. JSN should still have his safe floor if you want to plug him in as a WR4 in a deeper league, but with every team playing this week, there are likely other options with more upside you could start instead.
WR Dontayvion Wicks, GB (Wk. 12: @Det.): Wicks leads the Packers’ receivers this season in yards per route run, but his route participation rate has been below 50% in 6 straight games. He’s still found a way to make an impact, putting up top-36 PPR finishes in each of the last 3 games, but all of those performances came in weeks with 4 teams on byes, and he only hit 10+ PPR points in that span against the Chargers, who’s secondary has leaked like a sieve this season. Detroit has ranked 12th in pass defense DVOA, so I’d expect Wicks to be closer to the 50ish yards he put up in weeks 9 & 10 rather than the 91 he put up last week. I’d view him as a volatile WR4 option.
WR Quentin Johnston, LAC (Wk. 12: vs. Bal.): Johnston matched his season-high with 6 targets last week in Green Bay, but he may have had his worst day as a professional in the process. If you haven’t seen the highlight (or lowlight) yet, Johnston managed to get wide open on what looked like a game-winning 70-yard touchdown pass only for a perfect throw to carom off his hands and fall harmlessly to the ground. It was a play that epitomized the issues that have hampered QJ’s rookie season. Johnston finished the game with just 2 catches for 21 yards. He’s now played 3 straight games with at least an 85% route participation rate, and in those games, he’s averaged just 23 receiving yards on 4 targets per game. He should play close to a full-time role again this week, but there’s no reason to count on a reversal of fortune against a Baltimore defense that ranks 2nd in pass defense DVOA and allows the 4th-fewest WR points per game.
WR Jonathan Mingo, CAR (Wk. 12: @Ten.): Bryce Young’s unwillingness to push the ball down the field and Mingo’s struggles to separate from coverage in the short part of the field have continued to be an underwhelming pairing in the Carolina offense. Over the last 3 games, Mingo has tallied just 5 catches for 31 yards on 17 targets. It’s hard to get excited about the nearly 6 targets per game when they’re resulting in less than 2 yards per target. You can’t count on him getting on track here, even against a defense that allows the 6th-most WR points per game.
Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:
QB Tommy DeVito, NYG (Wk. 12: vs. NE): You may be thinking about firing up DeVito as a QB2 this week after he put up 3 TDs and a stunning QB7 finish against the Commanders. Don’t overreact to that performance. The Commanders have had the worst pass defense in the league. The Patriots, on the other hand, have allowed the 10th-fewest QB points per game and have held top-flight signal callers Dak Prescott, Tua Tagovailoa, and Jalen Hurts below 15 points against them. Look for DeVito to come crashing back to earth a bit here. I’d be ecstatic with it if he finishes as a mid-range QB2 this week.
QB Aidan O’Connell, LV (Wk. 12: vs. KC): O’Connell set a season-high with 271 passing yards last Sunday against Miami as the Raiders desperately tried and failed to pull even or ahead on the scoreboard for most of the second half. He’s now played two full games in a trailing game script, and he’s averaged 40 pass attempts per game in them (compared to 26 attempts per game when playing from ahead). He should have similar passing volume this week with the Raiders a 9.5-point underdog to Kansas City, but the Chiefs are a tougher secondary than the other teams O’Connell has chased on the scoreboard (the Dolphins and Chargers). Kansas City ranks 3rd in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 5th-fewest QB points per game. They’re the only defense in the league that hasn’t allowed an opposing QB to score 20 fantasy points in a game against them this year. KC has allowed just 3 QBs all year to throw for multiple TDs, allowed just 3 QBs to throw for 250+ yards, and allowed just one QB to do both (Kirk Cousins). I’d treat O’Connell as a fringe QB2 at best this week despite the high expected passing volume.
QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson, CLE (Wk. 12: @Den.): Thompson-Robinson has started two games this season, and he’s finished those two weeks as the QB30 and QB27, averaging 143 passing yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs and 22 rushing yards per game. This week’s matchup with the Broncos looks better on paper than it really is. Denver ranks 31st in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 10th-most QB points per game, but much of that is due to early season struggles. In their last 3 games, Denver has faced Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Joshua Dobbs. They held Allen to his 2nd-lowest point total of the season, Mahomes to his lowest, and held Dobbs to his lowest in his last 4 games. DTR’s rushing ability will always give him a little appeal, but given his performance so far this year and the fact there are no byes this week, it’s hard to justify putting him into 2-QB lineups in a matchup that’s tougher than it appears.
RB Kendre Miller, NO (Wk. 12: @Atl.): Miller has logged 9 touches in his last 4 games combined (the only 4 games he’s played with both Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams active), and he faces an Atlanta defense that allows the 2nd-fewest RB points per game this week. He’s the RB3 here, and that’s before you talk about Taysom Hill stealing goal line carries.
RB Kenny McIntosh, SEA (Wk. 12: vs. SF): McIntosh is expected to make his season debut this week with Kenneth Walker III doubtful for Thursday night’s tilt with the 49ers, but I don’t expect him to have a role that will make him useful for fantasy. Zach Charbonnet is expected to be the clear lead back with Walker out, while McIntosh and DeeJay Dallas split the backup work. Kenny’s best-case scenario would be if he was the clear RB2, but the matchup this week with San Francisco doesn’t lend itself to fantasy production in a backup role, as the 49ers allow the 7th-fewest RB points per game. Only 5 backs have scored 10+ points against them all year. Even if Walker is out for multiple weeks, the Seahawks next 4 games are all against defenses in the top-7 at limiting RB points. You could stash him in a deep league on the chance that something happens to Charbonnet or that he shows out on limited touches this week, but you likely won’t regret it if you just leave him on the wire.
RB Tank Bigsby, JAX (Wk. 12: @Hou.): Bigsby handled a season-high 9 carries last week in a blowout win over the Titans, but he turned them into just 21 scoreless yards against a stingy Tennessee run defense. The Texans’ run defense is worse than Tennessee’s, but I wouldn’t count on a similar game script here with the Jaguars favored by only a point. Don’t treat the spike in touches as a role change. All of Bigsby’s carries came in the 4th quarter, and 8 of them were on the Jaguars’ final drive with a 20-point lead.
RB Emari Demercado, ARI (Wk. 12: vs. LAR): Demercado has been held out the last two games with a toe injury, but even if he returns this week, I wouldn’t count on him having much of a role. James Conner has handled all but 5 of the Cardinals’ backfield touches in the last two games since his return from IR.
WR Marvin Mims, Jr., DEN (Wk. 12: vs. Cle.): Mims’ is finally getting the playing time we were clamoring for back in September. He logged route participation rates of 76% and 68% in the last two weeks, but the targets just haven’t been there as his role has increased. He hasn’t finished higher than the PPR WR65 since week 4. His 3 targets last week were the most Mims has seen since week 3, but he finished with just 2 catches for 12 yards. There’s no reason to expect much to change this week against a Cleveland defense that allows the 2nd-fewest WR points per game and ranks 1st in pass defense DVOA.
WR Jake Bobo, SEA (Wk. 12: vs. SF): Over the last 4 games combined, Bobo has tallied just 5 catches for 44 yards and a short rushing TD on a goal-line jet sweep. There’s no reason to expect his role to grow this week against a solid 49ers’ defense. He’s a touchdown-or-bust player unless someone gets hurt ahead of him.
WR Tre Tucker, LV (Wk. 12: vs. KC): Tucker set a season-high with 7 targets in week 11, but he continued to split the WR3 role with Hunter Renfrow and finished with just 2 catches for 36 yards. Tucker was in a route on just 40% of the team passing dropbacks compared to 47% for Renfrow. While the increased targets were nice, he’s still tallied over 60% of his receiving yards for the season on just two deep catches, and I don’t like his chances to record a deep grab this week. Kansas City ranks 4th in pass defense DVOA on deep throws and has allowed the 6th-fewest WR points per game.
WR Jalin Hyatt, NYG (Wk. 12: vs. NE): Tommy DeVito has attempted 80 passes so far this season. Jalin Hyatt has been targeted on just 6 of them and has totaled 3 catches for 26 yards on those targets. Hyatt has been running a route on about 60% of the team passing dropbacks, but DeVito rarely looks his way outside of designed deep shots, which haven’t connected. The Patriots rank in the top-12 in pass defense DVOA on deep throws, so I wouldn’t count on that connection getting better here. DeVito’s favorite target, Darius Slayton, suffered an arm injury and his status is in doubt for this week’s game, but I wouldn’t assume Hyatt gets much of a boost as a result. The Patriots are a much better pass defense than the Commanders, and I expect DeVito to struggle much more than he did last Sunday.
WRs Xavier Gipson & Jason Brownlee, NYJ (Wk. 12: vs. Mia.): Gipson was in a route on 91% of the team dropbacks last week and Brownlee was at 34% in his first game playing any offensive snaps this season, but the duo combined for just 1 catch for 7 yards in this broken passing game. The Jets have finally benched Zach Wilson and made the switch to Tim Boyle at QB this week, but I wouldn’t expect significantly better results from a journeyman QB who has thrown an interception on 7.5% of his NFL pass attempts and averaged just 5.1 yards per attempt. There’s no good reason to roll the dice here, even against a Miami defense that allows the 11th-most WR points per game.
WR Cedric Tillman, CLE (Wk. 12: @Den.): Dorian Thompson-Robinson at QB has curtailed any momentum Cedric Tillman picked up with the trade of Donovan Peoples-Jones to Detroit. Tillman has been playing a full-time role (91% and 87% route participation rates in the last 2 games), but DTR has averaged fewer than 4 yards per attempt in both of his starts this season, and Tillman is just too low in the target pecking order to make a fantasy impact with that abysmal passing efficiency. DTR has had tunnel vision for David Njoku and Amari Cooper, and I don’t see Tillman breaking through unless something changes at the QB position.
WR Kayshon Boutte, NE (Wk. 12: @NYG): Boutte has been active for just 2 games this season but logged a route participation rate of 50% or higher in both. That’s resulted in just 1 catch for 11 yards on 5 targets. There’s no reason to consider him here, even against a bad Giants’ pass defense.
WR Tyler Scott, CHI (Wk. 12: @Min.): Scott has been splitting the WR3 role with Equanimeous St. Brown since ESB returned from IR in week 10, and he’s logged more than 2 touches in a game just once this year. That isn’t likely to change soon after a Scott miscue late last Sunday resulted in him not being able to haul in a pass that would’ve sealed a win over the division-leading Lions.
WR Andrei Iosivas, CIN (Wk. 12: vs. Pit.): Iosivas sat last week with injury, and if he returns this week, it’ll be to a wholly different landscape for the Bengals’ offense without Joe Burrow. With Burrow under center, there was always a chance for Iosivas to have a couple decent games on limited snaps, but that possibility becomes almost non-existent with Jake Browning taking over. There’s no need to roster the rookie in redraft leagues, no matter how deep.
TE Michael Mayer, LV (Wk. 12: vs. KC): Mayer has logged 5 targets and topped 8 PPR points in each of the last two games, but the Chiefs have allowed the 4th-fewest TE points per game and have allowed just 3 tight ends all year to reach 40 yards against them. They haven’t faced many quality tight ends in recent weeks, but Cole Kmet, Sam LaPorta, and TJ Hockenson all had floor weeks against them. I’d be surprised if Mayer finds his way to 8-10 PPR points again this week.
TE Luke Schoonmaker, DAL (Wk. 12: vs. Was.): Schoonmaker posted his best game of the season last week with 2 catches for 23 yards and a TD, but his playing time didn’t see any sort of spike. He was in a route on just 19% of the team passing dropbacks in the game, and that’s just not usage you can count on, even against a terrible Washington pass defense.
Rookies to sit who are injured or have had very limited or non-existent roles: RB Deuce Vaughn, DAL, RB Chase Brown, CIN, RB Eric Gray, NYG, RB Sean Tucker, TB, RB Chris Rodriguez Jr., WAS, RB Elijah Dotson, LAC, RB Israel Abanikanda, NYJ, RB Christopher Brooks, MIA, WR Derius Davis, LAC, WR Rakim Jarrett, TB, WR Xavier Hutchinson, HOU, WR Ronnie Bell, SF, TE Luke Musgrave, GB, TE Darnell Washington, PIT, TE Payne Durham, TB, TE Brenton Strange, JAX, TE Josh Whyle, TEN
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
QB Bryce Young, CAR (Wk. 12: @Ten.): I know, I know, the thought of plugging Bryce Young into any fantasy lineups given his recent performances likely makes you cringe in horror. Over his last 3 games, Young has averaged 160 yards per game on a 56.5% completion percentage, and he’s posted 2 TDs and 4 INTs while being sacked 14 times in that span. It’s been ugly, but this might be a good spot for him to get back on track, at least by his standards. Young ranks 32nd out of 34 qualified QBs in intended air yards per pass attempt, and the Titans rank dead last in pass defense DVOA on short throws. Tennessee also ranks 31st in pass defense DVOA on throws to the opposing WR1, so Young should have success getting the ball to his primary playmaker, Adam Thielen. I’m not recommending that you start Bryce in 2-QB leagues with 32 teams in action, but I do like his chances of posting one of his better fantasy days of the season.
WR Michael Wilson, ARI (Wk. 12: vs. LAR): Wilson posted just 3 catches for 34 yards in Kyler Murray’s season debut in week 10 before missing last week with injury, but he was in a route on 91% of Murray’s dropbacks in that debut. He’s not practicing yet this week as of Wednesday, but if he’s able to get himself onto the field, this could be a great opportunity for him to have a spike week. Entering last week, Wilson ranked 36th in fantasy points per route run against zone coverage, and all but one of his receptions for the season have come against zone. The Rams play zone at the 6th-highest rate in the league, and they’re not good at it – their defense has the lowest PFF zone coverage grade of any team in the league. Wilson is only an option in deep leagues and DFS formats, but this matchup sets up nicely for him.
WR A.T. Perry, NO (Wk. 12: @Atl.): Michael Thomas was placed on IR this week with a knee injury, which moves Perry into the starting lineup in 3-wide sets for New Orleans. I’m not sure that will mean big production this week, but the Saints targeted him 4 times in week 10 and got him the ball in the end zone. The Falcons allow the 10th-fewest WR points per game, but they also rank 30th in pass-defense DVOA and can be thrown on if you try. He’ll likely be settling for 4-5 targets per week behind Chris Olave, Alvin Kamara, and Rashid Shaheed in the pecking order, but the WR3 in the offense that ranks 3rd in pass attempts per game is worth rostering in deeper leagues.
WR Jalen Brooks, DAL (Wk. 12: vs. Was.): I mention Brooks as a sleeper only for showdown DFS contests for the Cowboys-Commanders game. Dallas is favored in this game by 10.5 points, but games where they win have gotten out of hand this season. Dallas has won by at least 20+ points in 6 of their 7 victories, and they’ve shown a willingness to throw the ball while ahead in garbage time. They’ve dropped back to throw on more than a third of their 4th quarter snaps when leading by 20+ points, and Brooks would likely be on the field a lot in those scenarios and costs just $400 for showdown contests on DraftKings. The Commanders are arguably the worst pass defense in the NFL. If you think the Cowboys win in a romp, Brooks may be worth a dart as the last guy in those lineups. It’s worth mentioning, however, that the Cowboys are 1-11 against the spread in their last 12 Thanksgiving games.
TE Tucker Kraft, GB (Wk. 12: @Det.): If you haven’t seen the Packers’ injury report, you might’ve missed the update that starting tight end Luke Musgrave suffered a lacerated kidney that landed him on IR. Backup Josiah Deguara is also dealing with a hip injury that has him listed as doubtful for Thursday. That leaves Kraft as the #1 tight end for this matchup. Kraft had already seen a spike in playing time recently, running 31 routes and drawing 5 targets in the last two games, but the injuries in front of him mean Kraft could be a near every-down player this week against a Detroit defense that allows the 12th-most TE points per game. Musgrave was averaging 5.5 targets per game in that role. You’d have to be pretty desperate to be looking at him for a typical 1-TE league, but he has some appeal for 2-TE formats and in limited slate DFS contests on Turkey Day. He costs the minimum on DraftKings for the Thursday slate, and just $1,200 for showdown contests for the Detroit-Green Bay game.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.
November
Rookie Report: Week 13 Starts & Sits
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! I hope you enjoyed Thanksgiving with family and/or friends and enjoyed the stress-free process of setting lineups last week with no players on byes, because that changes this week. Week 13 has an unsightly SIX teams sitting out, including some offenses with weekly stud performers. Setting lineups this week is going to be much more challenging, and many of you may be in must-win situations as we make the push for the playoffs in these last 2 weeks of the fantasy regular season.
If you read this whole column, you’re going to get tired of hearing me say there are 6 teams on byes this week, but it’s relevant when considering which rookies are worth playing. With so many teams sitting, that rookie receiver who puts up 8 PPR points per week is suddenly going to look a lot more appealing if you’re desperately searching for replacement options to fill out the lineup. By now we’ve started to get a clearer picture of which rookies you can trust, and which ones you can’t, but there’s still plenty to sort out as you make those crucial start/sit decisions this week.
A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. All usage rates (snap share, target rate, air yardage share, etc.) are from the MB Fantasy Life Utilization Tool from Dwain McFarland, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
Let’s dive into week 13…
Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:
QB CJ Stroud, HOU (Wk. 13: vs. Den.): The Broncos defense has been much better in recent weeks than their overall numbers would suggest. They’ve held 4 of their last 7 opponents below 200 passing yards, and only Patrick Mahomes threw for 250+ against them in that span, but let’s be serious, you’re not sitting Stroud. CJ has set the NFL rookie record for passing yards in a 4-game stretch in his four November starts (1,466 yards), topping 300 passing yards in each game and piling up 12 total TDs in the process. He’s probably more of a contrarian play in DFS lineups this week rather than a chalk option given the matchup, but he’s a top-5 QB option in season-long lineups, especially with Lamar and Josh Allen on byes.
RB Bijan Robinson, ATL (Wk. 13: @NYJ): Robinson posted his best game of the season in week 12 in a less than ideal matchup, and this week he faces a Jets’ defense that allows the 6th-most RB points per game. If we throw out the headache game in Tampa, Bijan has now put up at least 6.7 PPR points or more from just receiving production in every single full game he’s played with Desmond Ridder at QB, and the Jets rank just 22nd in FTN’s pass defense DVOA on throws to the opposing running backs. Bijan’s also averaged 12 rushing attempts per game in those contests. He should see plenty of work in a game that should have a neutral or positive game script all day. He’s a top-12 back this week.
RB Jahmyr Gibbs, DET (Wk. 13: @NO): Gibbs posted his worst fantasy performance since September on Thanksgiving against Green Bay, and he was still good enough to finish as the RB25 for the week. The usage numbers were also very positive – Gibbs played nearly 70% of the offensive snaps, was in a route on 82% of the team passing dropbacks and handled 15 touches. That workload should be similar this week, and even if Gibbs is as inefficient this week as he was on Turkey Day, that workload should be enough to push him up to an RB2 finish just by virtue of there being 6 byes this week. I expect he’ll be better this week, even against a New Orleans team that allows the 11th-fewest RB points per game. I’m not sure I’d count on a ceiling game here, but I’d treat Jahmyr as a low-end RB1 for this weekend.
WR Tank Dell, HOU (Wk. 13: vs. Den.): Dell has continued to shine during CJ Stroud’s hot streak over the last month. He’s put up at least 50 yards and a TD in each of the last 4 games. He’s logged finishes as the WR1, WR11, WR3, and WR20 in that span. Denver’s defense has been better in recent weeks. They haven’t allowed a wide receiver touchdown since week 7, but you can’t sit Dell right now. Like his QB, he’s a better option this week in season-long leagues rather than DFS lineups, but with 6 teams on a bye, Dell has to be treated as a top-12 option for week 13.
TE Sam LaPorta, DET (Wk. 13: @NO): LaPorta finally got himself back on track and posted a TE3 finish on Thanksgiving against the Packers. I mentioned in this column last week that the chunk plays had gone away for LaPorta. He’d gone 5 straight games without a single catch of 20+ yards and had averaged 10 or fewer yards per catch in each of them. His first target against Green Bay went for a 31-yard gain. Two plays later, he scored a touchdown. This week’s matchup is a solid one. The Saints allow the 9th-most TE points per game, and in their last 8 games, they’ve allowed 6 TDs and 6 catches of 20+ yards to opposing tight ends. LaPorta is comfortably a top-10 option this week with so many teams on byes.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:
RB De’Von Achane, MIA (Wk. 13: @Was): We’re looking at another week of keeping a close eye on the injury report for Achane. He sat last week after aggravating the knee injury that put him on IR earlier this season, and he’s questionable for this Sunday. Mike McDaniel said Achane was held out on Black Friday due to an abundance of caution, and that he should be fine, but pay close attention to reports leading up to the weekend. If Achane is able to play, he gets a good matchup against a bad Washington defense. The Commanders have allowed the 12th-most RB points per game, and they’ve given up some big plays in recent weeks. They’ve allowed 10+ yards on 13.4% of the rushing attempts against them in their last 4 games, and 4 rushes went for more than 25 yards in that span. We know Achane’s volume isn’t going to be huge if he plays with Raheem Mostert around, so he’s going to need big plays to return value in your lineup, and those big plays can be had against Washington. Achane is a volatile option this week if he’s active. We’ve seen the ceiling in his breakout games earlier in the year, but if he winds up with a normal 4 or 5 yards per carry kind of performance here, there’s a good chance he finishes outside the top-24 backs this week. He’s a boom-or-bust RB2 option.
RB Zach Charbonnet, SEA (Wk. 13: @Dal.): Kenneth Walker III has been officially designated as ‘doubtful’ for Thursday night’s tilt with the Cowboys, so Charbonnet should again handle the bulk of the workload. Charbs handled 18 out of 21 Seattle backfield touches last weekend. The results could’ve been better. He finished as the RB32 with just 58 scrimmage yards on those 18 touches in a tough matchup with the 49ers, and he draws another tough task this week with the Cowboys. Dallas allows the 5th-fewest RB points per game and ranks 9th in run defense DVOA. Still, it’s hard to be much less efficient than Charbonnet was last week. I’d view that output as his floor for this week if KW3 doesn’t miraculously play. With 6 teams taking the week off, that kind of outing would get him close to the RB2 ranks, and there’s always upside for more when you get a bellcow workload. I’d treat Charbonnet as a back end RB2 option this week.
WR Puka Nacua, LAR (Wk. 13: vs. Cle.): With 6 teams on byes this week, you probably are going to have to start Puka. The output has not been ideal in recent weeks as Puka has been held to fewer than 8 PPR points in 3 of his last 4 games. He has the built-in excuse that one of those games was started by Brett Rypien, but there have been some down games with Stafford under center too, and this week’s matchup is brutal on paper. The Browns allow the 2nd-fewest WR points per game and rank 2nd in pass defense DVOA. There are still reasons to be optimistic about Nacua this week. He’s still earned at least 7 targets in every game this season, and the Browns’ coverage scheme might be favorable to him. No team plays more man-to-man coverage than the Browns, and Puka has tallied double the fantasy points per route run and nearly triple the yards per route run that Cooper Kupp has when facing man-to-man coverage. He’s the Rams’ receiver you want to target this week. I’d still be comfortable plugging Puka into fantasy lineups despite the tough matchup in this one.
WR Josh Downs, IND (Wk. 13: @Ten.): Downs came out of the Colts’ bye and was back to his usual role in the offense, playing the bulk of the slot snaps and being peppered with short targets by Gardner Minshew. The final stat line wasn’t overwhelming (5 catches for 43 yards), but Downs was targeted a whopping 13 times in the game. Downs now averages 9.6 targets per game in the 5 full healthy games he’s played with Minshew as QB. He could be primed for a spike performance this week in a great matchup too. The Titans allow the 8th-most WR points per game, and they rank 31st in pass defense DVOA on short throws. Downs also logged his second-best yardage game of the season in Indy’s first meeting with the Titans back in October. Downs should be treated as a PPR WR2 this week, and a high-end WR3 in half-PPR. This could be one of his better games of the season.
WR Rashee Rice, KC (Wk. 13: @GB): The Chiefs finally used Rice as their featured receiver last Sunday against the Raiders, and the results were eye-opening. Rice set new season highs in route participation rate (68%) and targets (10), and he turned that into a dazzling 8-107-1 line and WR4 finish for the week. Will he continue to be targeted at that rate this week? We can certainly hope so, but what’s really important is that we’ve now seen a ceiling from Rice that he just hadn’t shown prior to last weekend. The floor should still be intact and solid enough to make Rice a WR3 this week against a Green Bay defense that ranks 17th in pass defense DVOA, but that newly discovered ceiling means you can play him over some lackluster WR2/3 options like DeAndre Hopkins, Jerry Jeudy, or Chris Godwin and not feel like it's a desperation play.
WR Demario Douglas, NE (Wk. 13: vs. LAC): While it sounds like a longshot that Douglas gets cleared from the concussion protocol in time for this game, this would be a prime spot for a strong outing if Douglas were able to play. The Chargers have allowed the 3rd-most WR points per game and have been bleeding big plays in recent weeks. They’ve allowed 11 plays of 25+ yards in the last 3 games, and Douglas is the likeliest candidate to make a splash play for the Patriots. The rookie has been targeted at least 7 times in each of his last 4 games, and that kind of volume against the Chargers should result in a WR3 day or better. Keep an eye on the injury reports throughout the week to see if Douglas is progressing. There’s upside here if he can get cleared.
WR Jayden Reed, GB (Wk. 13: vs. KC): Reed has finished as a PPR WR2 or better in 3 straight games and has finished lower than the WR31 just once in his last 6 contests. He doesn’t always have a route participation rate around 80% like he has the last couple weeks, but Green Bay has consistently found ways to get the ball into his hands and Reed continues to produce. Kansas City is a tough matchup, allowing the 8th-fewest WR points per game and ranking 3rd in pass defense DVOA, but passing volume shouldn’t be a problem with Green Bay a 6.5-point underdog. Reed has averaged 8 opportunities per game (targets + carries) in the last 3 weeks, and that kind of workload this week, with many teams sitting on byes, should be enough to make him at least a WR3 option despite the matchup.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:
QB Will Levis, TEN (Wk. 13: vs. Ind.): Levis has shown us over the past month that his 4-TD debut was just a tease. He’s totaled zero touchdowns in 3 of the 4 games played since, and only hit 200+ passing yards once in those 4 games. He could get an extra weapon into the lineup this week with Treylon Burks back at practice, but I’m not sure that really moves the needle. The Colts rank 10th in pass defense DVOA and have allowed fewer than 200 passing yards to the starting QB in 5 of their last 6 games. They have allowed multiple TDs in 3 of those contests, but nothing we’ve seen from Levis over the last month should give you confidence that he’ll make it 4 of 7. I’d prefer Levis over some of the bottom of the barrel QB options this week if I were looking for a QB2, but I wouldn’t want to start Levis in a 1-QB league this week.
RB Tyjae Spears, TEN (Wk. 13: vs. Ind.): For the 2nd week in a row, the Titans will face a defense that is easier to run against than throw against, and you saw how that worked out for Tyjae last week. Spears played his lowest snap share since week 2 and had his worst fantasy game of the season as Derrick Henry dominated the backfield work in a 7-point win. I don’t think it’ll be quite that bad for Spears this week – there’s a better chance that the Titans are in a negative game script and forced to throw than there was last week against the Panthers. Even if that is the case, Spears’ receiving output hasn’t been nearly as effective since the team switched to Will Levis at QB. In 5 games with Levis at the helm, Spears has recorded 12 or fewer receiving yards in 4 of them despite averaging 4 targets per game. There’s still upside here. I expect Spears to be closer to his normal 8-10 touch range this week rather than the 3 he saw last week, and the Colts are a good matchup (allow the 7th-most RB points per game), so you could plug in Tyjae as a PPR RB3 or RB4 if you were desperate. That lackluster receiving efficiency with Levis makes me lean against that though.
WR Jonathan Mingo, CAR (Wk. 13: @TB): Mingo topped 60 receiving yards for just the 2nd time all season last weekend as the Titans did everything they could to take away Adam Thielen. Thielen finished with just 1 catch for 2 yards on 3 targets. I wouldn’t expect Thielen to be shut down like that again this week, so I wouldn’t view last week as the start of a breakout for Mingo. The Panthers have fired Frank Reich and turned play-calling duties over to OC Thomas Brown, but it should be more of the same for this offense. Brown called the games against Houston, Indy and Chicago earlier this year, and the results weren’t much different than the rest of the season. Mingo averaged 5.3 targets per game and 29 yards per game in that stretch. This week’s matchup with the Bucs is a good one for receivers. Tampa has allowed the 4th-most WR points per game and has coughed up 311 passing yards per game since their week 5 bye. They’ve also been getting hurt down the field, giving up 29 completions of 20+ yards in their last 7 games. Unfortunately, Bryce Young is not the QB to take advantage of that matchup. Mingo would have serious upside in this matchup if he had a QB who could hit him deep, but I’m going to go ahead and bet against Bryce Young being able to do that this week. Mingo is a volatile WR4 option.
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA (Wk. 13: @Dal.): JSN on Thanksgiving earned his lowest target total since all the way back in week 3, but he still found his way to 40 receiving yards for 6th time in the last 7 games. He has continued to be a stable floor PPR WR4 over the past couple months, but he faces a tough matchup this week in Dallas, one where it wouldn’t surprise me if his playing time ticks down a bit. Geno Smith has struggled to throw the ball out of 11 personnel (3-wide sets). Per NFL writer Doug Farrar, Geno has a passer rating of 78.8 when in 11 personnel, 12th lowest in the league, and no defense allows a lower passer rating to opponents in 11 personnel than the Cowboys (72.6). The Seahawks could use more 2-tight end sets to try to offset that disadvantage, and it won’t be DK Metcalf or Tyler Lockett going to the bench in those situations. Smith-Njigba should still have his familiar 40-yard floor, but I don’t see much of a path to ceiling in this one unless he finds the end zone.
WR Dontayvion Wicks, GB (Wk. 13: vs. KC): Wicks has cleared the concussion protocol and should return to action this week as the Packers’ WR4 in their 4-man rotation at the position. He’s more likely to hamper the upside of his teammates this week than he is to make a fantasy impact of his own. Wicks has seen more than 4 targets in a game just twice this year, so he typically needs a deep ball to make himself useful in fantasy lineups, and the Chiefs rank 3rd in pass defense DVOA on deep throws. They allowed just 4 completions of more than 20 yards in 3 November games. Wicks has carved out a substantial role for himself in this offense, but this feels like a week where he’s best left on the bench.
WR Michael Wilson, ARI (Wk. 13: @Pit.): Wilson has missed the last 2 games with a shoulder injury and isn’t practicing as of Thursday. Even if he gets in a limited practice session Friday and can play, I wouldn’t expect a big game in his first action in 3 weeks. I think it’s likelier that the Cards hold him out with their bye next week. Pittsburgh does allow the 10th-most WR points per game, but they play man coverage at the 7th-highest rate, and almost all of Wilson’s damage this season has come against zone. This wouldn’t be a great spot for a fully healthy Wilson, let alone a banged-up Wilson.
WR Quentin Johnston, LAC (Wk. 13: @NE): Johnston’s rookie season so far has been a long, strange, disappointing trip, and it took another strange turn last weekend. Johnston suffered a rib injury in the 3rd quarter against the Ravens on Sunday night, and he was cleared to return to the game but was held out by head coach Brandon Staley. That’s not all that uncommon - the strange part was the way Staley bristled and condescended to the media member who asked him about the decision in his postgame presser. It was an odd exchange that probably had more to do with the pressure Staley is feeling from the hot seat he’s sitting on than with anything to do with QJ, but it sort of feels like Staley was looking for a reason to sit him. Alex Erickson was already taking a sizable chunk of the WR3 role before Johnston suffered the injury, and that probably continues this week. Johnston had 3 weeks as a full-time receiver in this offense, and he averaged less than 7 PPR points per game in that span. QJ is practicing in full ahead of this week’s game, but you can’t start him now that he seems to be back to a part-time role.
TE Tucker Kraft, GB (Wk. 13: vs. KC): Kraft wasn’t targeted a ton in his first opportunity to start last Thursday, but he did log an 88% route participation rate and found the end zone on his way to a TE9 finish on Turkey Day. The matchup gets tougher this week. The Chiefs allow the 4th-fewest TE points per game, and only Gerald Everett has reached double-digit fantasy points against them this season. They haven’t allowed any tight end to reach 30 yards against them in their last 6 games. Some of that is because they just haven’t faced any good tight ends in that span, but Kraft isn’t a guy who necessarily changes that. Kraft should have a full-time role, and there are 6 teams on byes this week, so he’s at least in consideration if you’re looking for a streaming tight end, but he’s likely scoring less than 6 points unless he gets into the end zone.
Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:
QB Bryce Young, CAR (Wk. 13: @TB): I’ve tried to pick the spots where Bryce Young has a bit more upside this year but have mostly failed because there just aren’t a lot of weeks where Bryce has more upside. Young has made 10 starts this season, and he’s reached 12+ fantasy points in only half of them, and 15+ points just once. The Panthers made a major change this week, sacking head coach Frank Reich and replacing him in the interim with special teams coordinator Chris Tabor. It’s a big change for the organization, but likely won’t change much for Bryce. Offensive coordinator Thomas Brown will step into the play-calling duties, a role he’s already held for 3 games this season. In those 3 games, Bryce Young averaged 199 passing yards per game and totaled 2 TDs and 3 INTs. Don’t count on drastic improvements due to the coaching change. The matchup this week is good. Tampa Bay has allowed 250+ passing yards to 8 of the 11 QBs they’ve faced, and multiple total TDs to 7 of them. That doesn’t mean you can’t count on Bryce to increase those numbers. Even with so many teams on byes this week, Bryce should be viewed as just a low-end QB2 option.
QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson, CLE (Wk. 13: @LAR): Thompson-Robinson left last weekend’s game with a concussion, and it remains to be seen if he’ll get cleared in time to return this week. Even if he does, there’s not a good reason to insert him into lineups unless you’re desperate in a superflex league. DTR has tallied just 1 total touchdown in nearly 3 games of action. He was on his way to his best game of the season before getting hurt last week, but I wouldn’t count on him to repeat that, especially if Amari Cooper isn’t able to suit up. The Rams aren’t a difficult matchup for QBs, allowing the 13th-most points per game to the position. They’ve especially struggled to contain rushing QBs, allowing Anthony Richardson (56 yards and a TD), Jalen Hurts (72 and a TD), and Joshua Dobbs (47 yards) to all have strong running days against them. DTR does have that element to his game, but he may be hesitant to take off and run after suffering the concussion last week. He’s a fringe QB2 even with so many teams on byes.
RB Tank Bigsby, JAX (Wk. 13: vs. Cin.): Travis Etienne suffered a rib injury in last week’s contest, so you may be tempted to think Bigsby could see an expanded role this week. I wouldn’t get too excited. Etienne was able to play through the injury on Sunday, he’s practicing in a limited capacity as of Thursday, and when he did cede more work to the backup last week, it wasn’t to Tank Bigsby. D’Ernest Johnson has quietly usurped Bigsby for the RB2 role in this offense over the last 3 weeks, and it was Johnson who handled the bulk of the opportunities that Etienne didn’t. Johnson finished the game with 61 yards on 9 touches while Bigsby tallied just 1 rush for 6 yards. I’d guess that Etienne will be able to suit up this week, but if the rib injury does sideline him, I expect Bigsby to handle just a smattering of touches behind D’Ernest. The Bengals are one of the worst run defenses in the league – they rank 29th in run defense DVOA – but Bigsby will be nothing more than a DFS dart throw if Etienne sits.
RB Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN (Wk. 13: @Hou.): McLaughlin was down to just 2 snaps played in week 12. He’s the clear RB3 right now behind Javonte Williams and Samaje Perine. There’s not a good reason to roster him in most redraft leagues right now, and you can’t start him this week in Houston.
RB Emari Demercado, ARI (Wk. 13: @Pit.): Demercado returned from his toe injury last weekend but played just 22% of the offensive snaps behind James Conner. He finished with just 3 touches for 15 yards. That kind of workload isn’t going to get you very far even against a middling Steelers’ run defense.
RB Chase Brown, CIN (Wk. 13: @Jax.): The Bengals have said they want to get Chase Brown more involved in the offense going forward after he logged zero touches in his return from IR last weekend, but I’ll believe it when I see it. The Bengals are still trying to win games to keep their dying playoff hopes alive, and Brown doesn’t have enough experience yet to be a clear upgrade over either Joe Mixon or Treyveon Henderson in this offense. I wouldn’t be surprised if Brown gets a few touches this week, but he’ll still function as the RB3 against a defense that ranks 1st in run defense DVOA.
WR Trey Palmer, TB (Wk. 13: vs. Car.): Palmer has been on the field plenty as the WR3 in this offense, but the production just hasn’t been there. Trey has been held below 25 receiving yards in all but two games this season, and last weekend he was under a 70% route participation rate for the first time since week 6 as fellow rookies Rakim Jarrett and Payne Durham chipped away at his playing time. This week’s matchup also isn’t a good one for an ancillary receiver. Only the Browns have faced less passing volume than the 1-10 Panthers. Carolina has allowed the 5th-fewest points per game to opposing WRs and ranks 2nd in pass defense DVOA on throws to the opposing WR3.
WR Marvin Mims Jr., DEN (Wk. 13: @Hou.): Mims has now earned 3 targets in back-to-back games after earning that many in a game only once prior to week 11, but his playing time headed in the wrong direction and the production still isn’t there. Mims lost snaps in week 12 to Lil’Jordan Humphrey, and now the team has designated Brandon Johnson to return from IR as well, but his biggest problem here is just the overall team passing volume. Russell Wilson has averaged just 26 passing attempts and 165 passing yards per game over the last 6 contests. That’s just not enough for an ancillary target like Mims to make an impact. Mims hasn’t reached 40 yards in a game since week 4, and last week’s 35 yards were the first time he’s even reached 15 in a game since then.
WRs Xavier Gipson & Jason Brownlee, NYJ (Wk. 13: vs. Atl.): The Jets’ first week with Tim Boyle at QB wasn’t a whole lot different than what we’ve seen with Zach Wilson under center. Boyle threw for just 179 yards and the offense tallied just 6 points (the only team TD was a pick-6). Boyle also leaned heavily on Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall, and Tyler Conklin in the passing game. Gipson and Brownlee were full-time players last week with Allen Lazard an unexpected healthy scratch – Brownlee was in a route on every single passing dropback and Gipson was in a route on 79% of them – but the duo combined for just 4 targets in a game where Boyle threw the ball 38 times. Atlanta ranks a miserable 29th in pass defense DVOA, but I’m just not confident the Jets’ passing game gets going enough to make either of these receivers a worthwhile fantasy option, even in this good matchup.
WR Andrei Iosivas, CIN (Wk. 13: @Jax.): Iosivas logged his highest route participation rate of the season in week 12 (34%), but it amounted to just 1 catch for 16 yards on 2 targets. The increased playing time is a good sign, but it doesn’t mean much with Jake Browning at QB, and at some point, Tee Higgins will return to the lineup. There’s not much reason to consider Iosivas this week.
WR Jake Bobo, SEA (Wk. 11: @Dal.): Bobo logged his lowest route participation rate of the season last week (14%). There’s no need to consider a guy who’s run 10 or fewer routes in 4 of his last 5 games, especially in a tough matchup. Dallas allows the 3rd-fewest WR points per game.
WR Kayshon Boutte, NE (Wk. 13: vs. LAC): With the return of DeVante Parker to the lineup last week, Boutte was at just a 14% route participation rate, and he tallied just 1 catch for 8 yards on 2 targets against the Giants. Demario Douglas could miss this game after suffering a concussion last Sunday, but I wouldn’t count on a spike in production for Boutte if that happens. He’s totaled just 2 catches for 19 yards on the season on 65 routes run, and he’d be sharing the WR3 role with Tyquan Thornton and possibly Jalen Reagor even if Douglas sits.
Rookies on week 13 byes: QB Aidan O’Connell, LV, QB Tommy DeVito, NYG, RB Keaton Mitchell, BAL, RB Roschon Johnson, CHI, RB Eric Gray, NYG, WR Zay Flowers, BAL, WR Jordan Addison, MIN, WR Jalin Hyatt, NYG, WR Tre Tucker, LV, WR Tyler Scott, CHI, TE Dalton Kincaid, BUF, TE Michael Mayer, LV
Rookies to sit who are injured or have had very limited or non-existent roles: RB Deuce Vaughn, DAL, RB Kendre Miller, NO, RB Sean Tucker, TB, RB Chris Rodriguez Jr., WAS, RB Elijah Dotson, LAC, RB Israel Abanikanda, NYJ, RB Christopher Brooks, MIA, RB Kenny McIntosh, SEA, WR Derius Davis, LAC, WR Rakim Jarrett, TB, WR Xavier Hutchinson, HOU, WR Ronnie Bell, SF, TE Luke Musgrave, GB, TE Luke Schoonmaker, DAL, TE Darnell Washington, PIT, TE Payne Durham, TB, TE Brenton Strange, JAX, TE Josh Whyle, TEN
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
QB Jaren Hall, MIN (Wk. 13: Bye): I mention Hall for those of you in deep superflex leagues where any starting QB is worth a pile of gold. I don’t know how likely it is that the Vikings make a QB change over their bye week, but head coach Kevin O’Connell said they were going to be ‘evaluating the position’ after Joshua Dobbs threw 4 interceptions on Monday Night Football against a bad Bears’ defense. Normally when a coach says that, a change is likely. You could potentially get ahead of your league mates on Hall by picking him up this week instead of waiting until the change is official. There’s always a chance the Vikings will go with Nick Mullens instead of Hall if a change does happen, but we’ve seen enough of Mullens to know he isn’t very good. Hall has completed 8-of-10 passes for 101 yards in his limited action this year and would likely have Justin Jefferson back in the lineup.
WR Cedric Tillman, CLE (Wk. 13: @LAR): Tillman has been playing increased snaps since the trade of Donovan Peoples-Jones to Detroit, logging route participation rates above 85% in each of the last 3 games, and that increased playing time finally turned into some production last weekend. Prior to last week, Tillman had totaled 3 catches for 10 yards on the season. He put up 4 catches for 55 yards on Sunday, flirting with a WR3 finish in fantasy. This week he may see veteran Joe Flacco step in at QB, which likely means better passing numbers for the team (Flacco’s career-worst passer rating is 23 points higher than DTR’s this season), and there’s a chance Amari Cooper misses this game with a rib injury. Flacco does have a rapport with Elijah Moore already as the two played together in New York, so I probably wouldn’t start Tillman unless Amari is out, but there’s some sneaky WR3 upside here if Cooper sits. The Rams are just a middling pass defense at 14th in pass defense DVOA.
WR A.T. Perry, NO (Wk. 13: vs. Det.): Perry has now played 2 games with extended snaps, and he’s mostly been running empty routes. He’s been targeted just 6 times on 74 routes run. He flashed in week 10 with a touchdown and another long reception, but last Sunday he was limited to just 1 catch for 7 yards. The Saints were already down Michael Thomas (on IR with a knee issue), but they’re expecting to also be without Rashid Shaheed this week and don’t know if Chris Olave will get cleared from the concussion protocol in time for the game. That means Perry could be arguably the WR1 this week against a Detroit defense that allows the 6th-most WR points per game. If the top-3 receivers are all out, I’d expect the Saints’ passing game to run through Alvin Kamara, Juwan Johnson, and Taysom Hill, but Perry would likely fall into 5-6 targets by default in that scenario. I’m not saying he’d be a plug-and-play WR3 in that situation, but he’d be worth consideration if you were looking for a fill-in option in deeper leagues.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you sort through your lineup decisions and find your way to a win this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above, and always make sure to apply what’s written in the context of your own league rules and roster. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week if you have any guys who are questionable and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.
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