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Oh this is going to be a fun week!

To clarify, this will be a “fun” week.

This is the kind of week where season-long confidence pool participants are separated. Once we get past the first few lines, nearly every other game is a crap shoot!

My best to those who have to make picks for a survival pool this week.

We’re not worried about that here though so let’s get some confidence!

Week 3 – HERE WE GO!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

16 – LOS ANGELES CHARGERS over Jacksonville – Sorry, Jags – can’t host the Colts every week.

15 – MINNESOTA over Detroit – The Lions have looked better than they have in years…but its still hard to have confidence in them on the road.

14 – Buffalo over MIAMI – Yes Tua had a bit of a coming out party last week. But give me one good reason why you think the Bills will lose any game this season? Not saying they will go undefeated, crazy things happen during the season but my BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that THE BILLS WILL WIN AT LEAST 16 GAMES THIS SEASON.

13 – Kansas City over INDIANAPOLIS – With how good Buffalo has looked, the Chiefs haven’t been too far behind.

12 – San Francisco over DENVER – Aren’t too many situations where a team loses their starting quarterback…and MIGHT be better for it.

11 – TAMPA BAY over Green Bay – I haven’t officially done the math but Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers may have more career TD passes than the combined career yards totals for both of their receiving corps.

10 – Baltimore over NEW ENGLNAD – I fully expect Baltimore to take a lot of AFC East aggression out on the Pats this week.

9 – Los Angeles Rams over ARIZONA – I look for the Rams to make a much needed statement in this game.

8 – CLEVELAND over Pittsburgh – Amazon gives us a matchup this week that most wont be upset about missing due to streaming issues.

7 – SEATTLE over Atlanta – Remember when this would have been a Game of the Week candidate?

6 – CAROLINA over New Orleans – This is a matchup for #1 overall pick quarterback…just keep that in mind as you are trying to stay awake watching.

5 – TENNESSEE over Las Vegas – Both teams desperately need a win – luckily for the Titans the game will take place in Nashville.

4 – NEW YORK GIANTS over Dallas – The Giants could very well be 3-0 at the end of this week…just let that sink in for a bit.

3 – WASHINGTON over Philadelphia – We’ll give this the pick ‘em because they’re the home team tag.

2 – NEW YORK JETS over Cincinnati – Welp, the Jets beat the Bengals last year when Cincy wasn’t seemingly falling apart…sooo…

1 – Houston over CHICAGO – You could very well take the Bears in this one but, unlike the Bears, I’ll pass.

OK…so…about last week…

Well, now seems like a good idea to remind everyone that most season-long pools will allow you to remove your lowest scoring week from the total amount.

I didn’t really think we would have to look into that feature less than a quarter of the way into the season…but here we are!

Ah well, time to get back on that horse!

Week 4 – HERE WE GO!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

16 – GREEN BAY over New England – I won’t say that the Packers are back to normal after winning in Tampa last week…but there definitely at a point where they can easily handle Mac Jones’ backup.

15 – Minnesota over NEW ORLEANS – Remember to wake up early to catch the first London game of the year! Or don’t, its just Kirk Cousins vs Jameis Winston.

14 – PITTSBURGH over New York Jets – Zach Wilson is back!!! Yeah…it won’t matter.

13 – PHILADELPHIA over Jacksonville – So the Eagles look like the best team in the league…the Jaguars just went to LA and beat the Chargers by four touchdowns … … … where are we??

12 – LAS VEGAS over Denver – Yes, this is an ignorant hopeful homer pick. If  you choose to make adjustments with this one, I will more than understand.

11 – DETROIT over Seattle – The Lions are on a double-digit line…as the winner? This has been a weird start to the season.

10 – NEW YORK GIANTS over Chicago –  This will basically be Saquon Barkley and a bunch of middle schoolers.

9 – DALLAS over Washington – The Cowboys in another divisional matchup that, unlike last week, wont be nationally televised…thank God!

8 – INDIANAPOLIS over Tennessee – The Colts and Titans both battling to try and keep pace with the Jaguars …(checks notes confusingly)

7 – ATLANTA over Cleveland – Yes this will the Falcons back-to-back wins…but change is coming. My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is DESMOND RIDDER WILL BE STARTING FOR THE FALCONS BY WEEK 12.

6 – Buffalo over BALTIMORE – One loss won’t change my Bills’ opinion. Safe to say Ken Dorsey will be making sure no mistakes are made this week!

5 – CINCINNATI over Miami – I don’t think there would be a bigger way to close the book on the 2021 season than the Dolphins going 4-0 by sending the defending AFC Champions to a 1-2 start…but it won’t happen.

4 – SAN FRANCISCO over Los Angeles Rams – Just like the Bengals, the Rams don’t exactly seem to have the dominant aura that a defending Super Bowl champion should have.

3 – Los Angeles Chargers over HOUSTON – I wanted to say the Chargers would lose to the Texans since they knocked me out of my survivor pool last week…but I have responsibilities.

2 – TAMPA BAY over Kansas City – This one is obviously a toss-up with the craziness surrounding it. Thoughts & prayers out to everyone in Florida – stay safe!

1 – CAROLINA over Arizona – Can you think of anything entertaining or helpful to say about this one? Go ahead, I’ll wait…

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

4 Lost Fumbles

I’ve been talking up Trevor Lawrence, so it’s only fair that I talk about when he’s remarkably bad as well. He’s the first player this century to lose 4 fumbles in one game. Those 4 fumbles canceled out Lawrence’s 2 TD passes. He finished the game with 6.66 points – truly not a great sign for what I thought was a step forward in his second year. Lawrence added one pick to his total, for 5 overall turnovers – the most he’s had in a single game in his career. Sometimes I wish that there was still someone on TV to hype the Jaguars so I didn't feel so alone in this. Meanwhile, their opponent the Eagles D/ST has been having a great year – they now have 5 INTs, 5 fumbles recovered, and 16 sacks through just 4 games. They are now the D/ST2 on the season, but have 2 tough matchups leading into their bye week, so – maybe time to try and trade a D/ST? Is that even a thing?

2 Quarterbacks Over 30 Fantasy Points

…And neither of them are owned in the drinkfive.com so-called “Experts League”. Well, let’s not be too tough on everyone, here. Geno Smith threw for 2 TDs and ran in another while accounting for 369 total yards on the day on his way to leading the Seahawks to 48 total points – and they needed nearly every one of them. More on that in a moment. Joining Smith in the 30+ territory was his opponent, Jared Goff. For the second time this year, Goff threw for 4 TDs and he’s now the QB5 on the season. Goff is also tied for the league lead with 11 passing TDs. This is likely a trend that can continue for Goff, considering his team has given up the most points in the league so far this year.

140 Points Scored on the Season

The Detroit Lions are leading the league in scoring, having scored 140 points on the year so far. Unfortunately for them, they have given up 141 points – also the most in the league. This is why they have a very disappointing 1-3 record. The Lions have scored 35 and 45 points in games they lost this season. They are leading the league in passing TDs (tied), rushing yards per attempt, and total yards. Second in the league in rushing TDs, and top 10 in lots of other important offensive milestones. Unfortunately, they are dead last in defense when it comes to points, yards, first downs given up, rushing TDs, and rushing yards per attempt. It’s really an extreme experience being a Lions fan this season.

5 of 5 Field Goals in the Home of the Hotspurs

Kickers haven’t come up much this year so far, and props go to Greg Joseph of the Vikings who completed 5 of his 5 field goal attempts in England on Sunday morning. He kicked for a total of 181 yards, including one with under 30 seconds left to answer Will Lutz’s 60-yard field goal which had tied the game just minutes earlier. The fans in England were treated to a good game, one that had 5 scores in the 4^th quarter alone. Unfortunately for Joseph, he can’t claim he had a perfect day, as he did miss 1 extra point. In fact, each of the top 4 scoring kickers missed one kick this week – 3 of them missing extra points attempts. Perhaps this shows that the NFL moving the extra point back is accomplishing what they wanted. Perhaps this shows that kicking is pretty damn random indeed. Perhaps they don’t even belong in a column about fantasy football. My apologies, it’s getting late.

35.9 Fantasy Points

I tried my best, but I just couldn’t avoid talking about one more Detroit Lion. It’s not as if he doesn’t deserve it. T.J. Hockenson scored 35.9 fantasy points, the most of any TE this season – by more than 10 points. Hockenson had 8 receptions for 179 yards (lead the league in receiving yards) and scored 2 TDs. He even tacked on a 2-point conversion catch just for the cherry on top. This catapulted him all the way to TE3 on the season, even though he had only 19.2 points going into week 4. He has 65% of his points in just one game this year. Sometimes a small sample size is really fun to play with.

The secret to a good offense is balance. But what rings true in the NFL is not always true for fantasy football. Sometimes a team with a huge imbalance can be very helpful for fantasy - or at least tell us what we should be avoiding. Let’s have a look at teams who are on both sides of the run/pass balance sheet. First up is the team that is running the ball far, far more than any other team in the league.

Chicago Bears - Run 67%, Pass 33% - The Bears are tied for the fewest plays per game in the league, so it’s not as if this offensive imbalance can be exploited all that much. What we do know for sure are two things. One, that this can’t last forever. Eventually, they will have to throw the ball. The Bears run the ball 10% more than the next highest team on the run-heavy side. That’s just absurd. Fields has only one game with double-digit completions, and that tops out at 11. He’s bound to throw the ball more, eventually. Until then, he’s a sit in all formats. Along with any pass catcher on the Bears.

Justin Fields has the same number of rushes and completions this season. The Bears are running the ball this much because their offense is basically anemic. The second thing we know is that there is only one fantasy player worth starting on the Bears, Khalil Herbert. The silver lining we can take away from the analysis of this imbalance is, I suppose, that we can feel confident in starting a backup RB while David Montgomery is out. When he comes back, it’s all going to be thrown into chaos again.

General Analysis - Though it’s not a hard rule, it can generally be interpreted that running the ball too much in this league is a sign of a bad offense. Only 3 of the teams that run the ball more than 50% of the time are in the top 10 of scoring. In the NFL, you need to have a good run game to be good, but you need to be good enough to not have to use it that often. The most balanced team - the one closest to a 50/50 split - is the Tennessee Titans (50.7% run/49.3% pass), and there are only 6 teams that run the ball more than they do. This is clearly a passing league.

Let’s look at the best offense in the league for a moment. The Detroit Lions have scored 140 points in 4 games, and are right smack in the middle of the pack when it comes to run/pass. That doesn’t mean they are 50/50 - they are actually 42.4% run and 57.6% pass. They just have found the best balance that works in today’s NFL. They are 16th in run% and 17th in pass%. The second-best offense in the league, the Kansas City Chiefs, are just two spots away from the Lions, leaning towards the pass. Both teams have found the sweet spot of the run-to-pass ratio that is keeping offenses honest and keeping their teams scoring points - the only two in the league to be averaging over 30 points per game.

New York Jets - Run 30.8%, Pass 69.2% - Now we look to the Jets, the team with the biggest imbalance in the league. The Jets throw the ball 4% more than any other team. Despite this imbalance, they are in much better shape than the Bears. The Jets are in the middle of the pack when it comes to scoring points (18th), and actually have the 8th most yards from scrimmage in the league. Even though they’re imbalanced, they are still moving the ball a lot since their imbalance comes due to the pass, instead of the run. Passing plays just rack up more stats and that’s a fact. The Jets, with their 5.5 NY/A (net yards gained per pass attempt) are only 24th in the league. It’s still higher than the Bears 5.2 Y/A running the ball, which is a shiny 4th in the league!

Now that we’ve established that passing the ball is intrinsically more valuable than running the ball, even when you are at either extreme, what fantasy insight can we glean on this Jets team? Well, they do have tons of completions - the second-highest number of receptions (tied for 3rd in the league), so there’s lots of value in PPR formats. Unfortunately, they do spread the ball around a ton. Already, 6 players have at least 15 receptions through 4 games. Their leading pass catcher, Tyler Conklin, has 21 catches on the season and is tied for 21st in receptions - I do love fun coincidences like that one. The Jets like to spread it around so much, they even have 4 players who have thrown pass completions already this season. 

Perhaps if the Jets had fewer offensive players to choose from, they would have one or two stand out in fantasy. As it stands, the Jets only have one player who is in the top 10 of points at his position, Tyler Conklin, currently the TE10. The other high water marks are Breece Hall (RB) and Garrett Wilson (WR), both at 19 of their respective positions. I believe that perhaps the most accurate conclusion we can draw from our two examples thus far is that it’s not a good idea to have fantasy players from any team on either extreme of the run/pass split. At least the Jets are running 70 plays per game and have fantasy value based on their expected volume alone, though there are no studs to be seen.

Buffalo Bills - Run 36.3%, Pass 63.7% - Finally, let us take a look at an offense that is unbalanced AND performing well. The Bills are 5th in the league in terms of total points with 114, and they are 6th when it comes to being a pass-heavy offense. The Bills are obviously a good, talented team, whereas the previous two are not. Take a look at where just a few stats can make a world of difference. The Bills have a 6.7 NY/A when passing and are able to squeeze many more fantasy points out of their passing game compared to the Jets, who threw the ball 23 more times, but actually have 2 fewer completions! It’s not about how much you do the thing, it’s about how well you do it.

The Bills are also running the ball efficiently with the time they do run it, probably because defenses have to defend the pass so much. They are gaining 4.8 Y/A, the 11th best in the league, and not that far behind the Bears. Since the best runner on the Bills is Josh Allen, this sort of ruins any chance they have at a candidate for a good fantasy RB. Their best is Devin Singletary, at RB26. They do have Allen all the way up at QB2, and Stefon Diggs at WR2, so it’s clear that their more focused, pass-heavy offense is netting tons of fantasy points.

So, what conclusions can we draw from this exercise? First, it’s not going to help being the team that runs the most or passes the most if you don’t have the right players to exploit it. Chances are, you’re just being forced into those situations because you’re a bad team. Second, it’s best to be in the middle of the pack regarding the split (somewhere around 42% run, 58% pass) to find the most offensive success. Third, you need to have all-pro players to really be a predictable offense and still succeed. If you do not have those players, you are going to struggle to find fantasy success. As much as we want our players to dominate touches or carries, your average player is going to be more likely to excel on a more balanced team.