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Welcome back to the Rookie Report! It’s been a long, dreadful 7-month wait for NFL games that matter to return, but we’ve made it! We’re mere hours away from week 1, which means it’s time once again to set your fantasy lineups, and that means I’m back to help you figure out what to do with your rookies.

If you’re new to the Rookie Report, here’s how it works: Each week I’ll look at the upcoming matchup for all the fantasy-relevant rookies and give you my take on what to do with them for that week. I’ll give you some quick-hitting info about guys you already know you should start or sit, and I’ll dig a little deeper on the borderline rookies to give you some info to help you make that decision for the week. I’ll also include some deep league sleepers, stashes for the future, and cheap DFS plays that I like among rookies for those of you who are in deeper leagues or like to play DFS.

This year’s rookie class is an interesting one. There was only 1 QB taken before round 3 of the NFL draft and zero rookie QBs slated to start in week 1, but there were an absurd 13 wide receivers taken in the first two rounds and a number of other intriguing guys drafted in rounds 3 & 4. I have a feeling a lot of this year’s Rookie Report will be devoted to the wide receiver class.

A couple of housekeeping notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all references to fantasy points and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 1…

Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:

NONE – There are no rookies that should be an auto-start in week 1 for your lineups. The 2 guys who should be the safest based on draft capital and expected role are Drake London and Breece Hall. Both face tough week 1 matchups and have question marks that make them less than a sure thing for the openers.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:

RB Dameon Pierce, HOU (Wk. 1: vs. Ind.): Pierce has been one of the most polarizing players this preseason after winning the Texans’ RB1 job out of camp as a 4^th-round draft pick. The debate has been about whether he’s actually a good starting RB, or if he was just the best of a lackluster group of options in Houston. Regardless of the answer to that question, we know he’s going to get rushing volume. The Texans changed coaches this offseason, but they’re likely to remain conservative as an offense. Houston passed the ball at just the 19^th highest rate last year despite finishing 4-13 and constantly playing from behind. That means they’re willing to run when they probably shouldn’t. I don’t expect Pierce to stay in the game on passing downs. That job should fall to Rex Burkhead, but that doesn’t mean Pierce can’t pull in a few receptions to go along with probably 15+ carries in week 1. The Colts’ run defense was stingy in 2021, ranking 3^rd in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA, but the switch from DC Matt Eberflus to Gus Bradley could mean some regression is coming. Bradley runs a base cover-3 defense and doesn’t do a ton of blitzing. In fact, according to Pro Football Reference Bradley’s defenses have blitzed at the lowest rate in the NFL in each of the last 3 years (and 3^rd-lowest rate in 2018). It’s caused his defenses to traditionally be pretty good against the pass, but bad against the run. Bradley’s defenses have ranked in the bottom half of the league in rushing yards allowed and rushing TDs allowed in each of the last 3 seasons, and his Raiders’ defense last year allowed the 4^th-most running back points per game. If you’re considering Pierce for a start in week 1, I’d feel good about slotting him in the lineup.

WR Chris Olave, NO (Wk. 1: @Atl.): Olave enters week 1 looking like a clear starter for the Saints opposite Michael Thomas with Jarvis Landry in the slot. Thomas has been battling a hamstring injury, and while he looks likely to play it’s easy to wonder if it hampers his performance in the opener. The Falcons allowed the 2^nd-most fantasy points in the league last year to wide receivers lined up on the perimeter, per Sports Info Solutions (SIS). They did add Casey Heyward Jr. at corner to help shore up that issue, but I still like Olave to get loose for a handful of catches in a strong debut performance. Part of the problem for the Falcons is that they generated QB pressure at the lowest rate in the league last year, and they did little to address the issue in the offseason. You can’t ask your corners to cover forever. Something in the range of 5-75 with a possible TD would be a nice finish for Olave in the opener.

WR Treylon Burks, TEN (Wk. 1: vs. NYG): Depending on who you ask, Burks’ training camp and preseason ranged anywhere from okay to pretty bad, to a complete dumpster fire. It started with reports that his conditioning was an issue early in camp. Then came the preseason games where Burks played into the 4^th quarter in each of the first two contests and didn’t produce much with his opportunities. It became clear that he wasn’t working with the starters yet, which is unexpected for a guy who was drafted in the top 20 picks by a team that just traded away their WR1. At the end of the day, I bought into the camp reports a bit and was expecting a slow start to the season for Burks. Then I saw his week 1 matchup. The Giants are shaky at corner after releasing James Bradberry as a cap casualty in the offseason, and new DC Wink Martindale loves to play aggressive defense with a lot of blitzing and asking his CBs to play man coverage. I expect the Titans to combat this by trying to get the ball into the hands of their playmakers in space quickly, and they don’t have a more dynamic playmaker than Burks. Much like Derrick Henry (although not to the same degree), Burks is a player you don’t want to tackle when he’s running full speed in the open field. I like his chances of breaking a big play or two against this vulnerable defense. Burks is listed as the team’s WR2 on their first depth chart released for the regular season.

WR George Pickens, PIT (Wk. 1: @Cin.): Pickens will be a starter in 3-wide sets for the Steelers in week 1, and with Diontae Johnson battling a shoulder injury he could make a splash in his debut against the defending AFC champs. Mike Tomlin hasn’t expressed any concern about Diontae being able to play in the opener, but Johnson may be out there as more of a decoy than a featured target. Johnson should draw shadow coverage from Chidobe Awuzie, who graded as PFF’s 18^th-best cover corner in 2021. Chase Claypool should draw Mike Hilton in the slot (PFF’s 5^th best slot cover corner in ’21). That leaves oft picked on Eli Apple as Pickens’ week one adversary. I like George’s chances to lead the Steelers in receiving yards in week 1, and he looks like a guy who will be much more productive as a pro than he was in college. 60+ yards and a possible TD feels like a likely outcome for Pickens in the opener. 

WR Jahan Dotson, WAS (Wk. 1: vs. Jax.): Dotson won the starting WR job opposite Terry McLaurin in camp, and he gets a soft landing for his NFL debut. The Jaguars allowed the 7^th-most WR points per game last season and ranked 31^st in pass defense DVOA, and their best corner Shaquill Griffin is likely to follow Terry McLaurin around. That leaves youngster Tyson Campbell to match up with Dotson. With Washington likely missing starting TE Logan Thomas, Dotson should see a healthy number of targets come his way in a game where Carson Wentz should be motivated to exorcise some demons. It was his performance in an embarrassing loss in the week 18 meeting with the Jaguars that changed the trajectory of Wentz’s career. That loss was the final nail in his coffin in Indy, the second stop that he’s been booted from in as many years. This year may be his last chance to prove he can be someone’s franchise QB and putting it on the Jaguars would be a good way to start. If Wentz makes good on that, Dotson will be a primary beneficiary.

Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:

RB Breece Hall, NYJ (Wk. 1: vs. Bal.): Hall seemed like a slam dunk to open the season as the Jets' workhorse running back when he was drafted in April, but he somehow failed to beat out Michael Carter for the starting job in training camp. It appears Hall will open the season in a committee akin to the one we saw between Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon last season in Denver. It’s not a great development if you drafted Hall to be a starting running back, especially in a week where he faces a Ravens’ defense that ranked 4^th in run defense DVOA stat last season. This is the kind of matchup where I’d be calling him a floor RB2 if he were the workhorse. Instead, he’s a fringe flex play that doesn’t appear to have a ton of ceiling.

RB Rachaad White, TB (Wk. 1: @Dal.): White is only a borderline option in the deepest of PPR leagues. The Bucs leaned heavily on Leonard Fournette in 2021, and while they’re likely to do that again in ’22, they probably want to lighten the load at least a little after he missed crucial time down the stretch with injury last season. They used a 3^rd round pick on White and he’s already worked his way up to #2 on the depth chart behind Lenny. I expect the workload split here to look something like we’ve seen with Dallas where Fournette is in the Zeke Elliott role and White is Tony Pollard. He’ll mix in for some change of pace work and some receiving opportunities, but Lenny is the workhorse. White is a great stash in case his role is bigger than expected or anything happens to Fournette, but he isn’t a great play in week 1 against a Dallas defense that allowed the 3^rd-fewest RB points per game last season.

WR Drake London, ATL (Wk. vs. NO): London returns from a knee injury in time for week 1, but he’s had very limited practice time this preseason. I’d be surprised if he plays a full complement of snaps in the opener, and many of the snaps he does play should be matched up with Saints’ top corner Marshon Lattimore. Lattimore had a 76.4 PFF coverage grade and allowed fewer than 8 yards per target into his coverage in 2021. I wouldn’t count on more than 5-6 targets for the rookie in the opener, which may not get London to 50+ yards against Lattimore.

WR Alec Pierce, IND (Wk. 1: @Hou.): Pierce draws a favorable matchup in his first time out against a Houston defense that allowed the 5^th-most fantasy points last year to wide receivers lined up out wide (Parris Campbell figures to play mostly in the slot), but this shapes up as a game where the Colts will have no problem relying on Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman to do most of the heavy lifting. Pittman is the clear WR1 in this offense, and the Texans won’t have an answer for him when the Colts need to throw, and they shouldn’t need to throw a ton. Pierce could see a few targets come his way, but this should be a low passing volume week for the Colts, and the scraps that go to Pierce are unlikely to amount to a strong fantasy game.  

WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 1: vs. Bal): The Jets have listed Wilson as a backup on the depth chart behind Braxton Berrios ahead of the opener, but I have a hunch Wilson will be on the field a fair amount in week 1. They didn’t draft him in the first round to not have a role, and the Jets are going to be playing from behind as a touchdown underdog at home. The Ravens are a much tougher pass defense than last year’s #30 rank in pass defense DVOA would indicate. Their secondary was decimated by injuries last year and appears back to full health to start 2022. The return of Marcus Peters and the addition of Kyle Fuller make this a defense I don’t want to use Wilson against unless I KNOW he’s playing a full complement of snaps. We don’t know that for week 1.

WR Jalen Tolbert, DAL (Wk. 1: vs. TB): Michael Gallup’s status remains in doubt for week 1, and Tampa Bay’s stout defensive front had teams throwing early and often against them last season since they couldn’t run the ball with any success. Dak Prescott attempted a whopping 58 passes against the Bucs in week 1 last year as Zeke Elliott struggled to just 33 rushing yards. There’s a pretty good possibility Dallas employs a similar strategy this time around, and that kind of passing volume makes Tolbert intriguing. The problem is that he’s failed to separate himself from guys like Noah Brown, Semi Fehoko, and KaVontae Turpin in camp. It’s likely all 4 guys play some snaps in the opener if Gallup is out, and we could even see Tony Pollard get some slot snaps as well after he did some work there in camp. The passing game will run through CeeDee Lamb, Dalton Schultz, and the running backs in the opener, and you’re likely grasping at straws if you start any of their other receivers in week 1.

TE Daniel Bellinger, NYG (Wk. 1: @Ten.): For deeper TE-premium leagues, Bellinger may be on your radar for week 1 after winning the starting tight end job in New York. I’d steer clear for the opener. The Titans allowed the 6^th-fewest TE points per game last season, and we all know about the likelihood of early success for rookie tight ends. You can likely find a better option for week 1.

Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:

All of the rookie QBs: None of the rookie signal callers are slated to start in week 1, and if the draft is any indication, I’d be pessimistic about the entire class. 2022 was the 6^th time since 1990 that no QB was taken in the top-15 picks of the NFL draft. The first QBs off the board in those other 5 drafts have a combined total of one top-12 fantasy season between them (by Chad Pennington). That bodes poorly for Kenny Pickett, and none of the other rookie QBs this year garnered better than a 3^rd-round draft pick.

RB James Cook, BUF (Wk. 1: @LAR): Cook enters week 1 in a messy 3-way committee with Devin Singletary and Zack Moss, and he faces a defense that allowed the 9^th-fewest RB points per game last season and remains one of the most talented defensive units in the NFL. Cook’s likely to see a handful of touches in week 1, but he’s going to be hard to trust as anything more than an upside play in DFS contests. He costs the minimum for the full slate on DraftKings, and $2,800 for showdown contests.

RB Kenneth Walker III, SEA (Wk. 1: vs. Den.): Walker has been battling a hernia injury (the non-sports variety) throughout camp. It’s still up in the air whether he’ll be able to suit up in week 1, but the missed time has him comfortably behind Rashaad Penny on the depth chart to start the season. Anything beyond 6-8 touches in week one for KW3 would be a bonus.

RB Tyler Allgeier, ATL (Wk. 1: vs. NO): Allgeier enters the season 3^rd on the Falcons RB depth chart behind Cordarrelle Patterson and Damien Williams, and the Falcons face a New Orleans defense that ranked 1^st in run defense DVOA and allowed the 2^nd fewest RB points per game last season. There’s no reason to fire him up in the opener.

RB Zamir White, LV (Wk. 1: @LAC): White’s role for the early part of the season Looks to be mostly as a change of pace back on early downs behind Josh Jacobs while Ameer Abdullah handles the passing down work. That’s not a very useful role for fantasy, even against a Chargers’ defense that ranked 30^th in run defense DVOA a season ago.

RB Trestan Ebner, CHI (Wk. 1: vs. SF): Ebner warrants watching in week 1 as a potential waiver pick-up for PPR leagues. There’s been a lot of buzz this offseason about his ability as a pass-catcher out of the backfield, but this week is not the one to try him out in lineups. The 49ers allowed the 9^th-fewest RB receiving yards per game last season and we still don’t know just how big of a role Ebner will play in this offense. Take a wait-and-see approach with him in the early weeks.

RB Isiah Pacheco, KC (Wk. 1: @Ari.): Pacheco has been one of the biggest darlings of training camp. There’s been speculation that he’s going to play a meaningful role in the Chiefs offense after making the team as a 7^th-round draft pick, but you’d be best off practicing patience with him for your lineups. Pacheco looks to work as the change of pace back for both early-down RB Clyde Edwards Helaire and 3^rd down back Jerick McKinnon to start the season. The Cardinals should be significantly worse on defense than the unit that allowed the 7^th-fewest RB points per game last year, but Pacheco’s limited role in a 3-headed backfield makes him a guy to avoid this week.

RB Isaiah Spiller, LAC (Wk. 1: vs. LV): Spiller seems to have gotten over a preseason ankle injury in time for week 1, but he’s fallen behind both Joshua Kelley and Sony Michel for the RB2 job and isn’t likely to have a prominent role in week 1. The Raiders aren’t a good defense – they allowed the 4^th-most RB points per game last season, but Spiller won’t see enough work for that to matter.

RB Kyren Williams, LAR (Wk. 1: vs. Buf.): The Rams backfield rotation seems a little unsettled still, but I don’t envision a big role for Williams behind Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson to start the season. Williams’ biggest upside comes from his prowess as a receiver. He hauled in 35+ catches in each of the last two seasons at Notre Dame, but he enters an offense that doesn’t really target the backs in the passing game. The Rams have ranked dead last in the NFL in RB target share in each of the last two seasons, and although OC Kevin O’Connell departed to take the Vikings head coaching job, the Rams replaced him with Liam Coen who coached under O’Connell with the Rams in 2020. Coen spent 2021 as the Kentucky offensive coordinator, and the Wildcats’ running backs accounted for less than 10% of the team’s total receptions. Williams is a guy to monitor for later in the season, but he shouldn’t be near your week 1 lineup.

WR David Bell, CLE (Wk. 1: @Car.): There’s a good chance that Bell opens the season as the Browns’ WR3, but I don’t expect there to be a lot of fantasy production to go around for the pass catchers with Jacoby Brissett under center. The Browns will likely use a lot of 2-TE and 2-RB looks and probably won’t have 3 WRs on the field as much as most teams. Bell should be rostered in deeper PPR leagues, but he’s not a good option in week 1, especially against a Carolina defense that allowed the 3^rd fewest fantasy points per game to opposing WRs lined up in the slot last season, per SIS.

WR Skyy Moore, KC (Wk. 1: @Ari.): The Chiefs look likely to enter the season with JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Mecole Hardman starting in 3-WR sets. Moore even played behind Justin Watson in the Chiefs' final preseason game. The rookie is going to work himself into a bigger role at some point this season, but he shouldn’t be near your lineup for week 1.

WR Velus Jones Jr., CHI (Wk. 1: vs. SF): Jones makes his NFL debut against a defense that was just in the middle of the pack last year against the pass (15^th in pass defense DVOA), but he joins an offense with a messy WR depth chart after Darnell Mooney. The Bears figure to be run-heavy, with the passing offense running through Mooney and TE Cole Kmet. None of the other Chicago receivers should be in your week 1 lineup. Jones looks to be the WR4 on the depth chart at this point behind Mooney, Equanimeous St. Brown, and Byron Pringle, but that could change as the season moves along. Monitor Jones from afar.

WR Kyle Phillips, TEN (Wk. 1: vs. NYG): Phillips impressed early in camp and seemed to have a real chance to enter the season as the Titans starting slot WR at one point, but with Treylon Burks putting his early camp struggles behind him Phillips seems to be playing behind Robert Woods, Burks, and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine on the depth chart. Even if he had earned the WR3 role, only 9 teams spent a lower % of their plays in 11 personnel than the Titans did last year. Their offense runs through Derrick Henry, and they typically have a narrow passing target tree. Phillips doesn’t have much upside in the opener even in a good matchup with the Giants.

TE Cole Turner, WAS (Wk. 1: vs. Jax.): I had some hope for Turner to make my sleeper list this week with starting tight end Logan Thomas unlikely to suit up for week 1 and backup John Bates banged up as well, but Bates was able to get in a full practice on Tuesday. He’ll likely be ready to go for the opener, relegating Turner to the bench. Turner posted 62 receptions at 10 TDs at Nevada last season, and the Jaguars ranked 31^st in pass defense DVOA last season. If for some reason Bates winds up missing this game, Turner is an intriguing DFS option that costs the minimum on DraftKings.

TE Cade Otton, TB (Wk. 1: @Dal.): Otton had some hype early in the offseason when Gronk retired once again, but the Bucs also added Kyle Rudolph in free agency and Otton has failed to beat out Rudolph or returning backup Cam Brate. He’ll open the season as Tampa’s TE3.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Jaylen Warren, PIT (Wk. 1: @Cin.): Warren’s signing as a UDFA went largely unnoticed in the spring but entering the season he’s the primary backup for Najee Harris. He isn’t a guy you should be plugging into any lineups, but he’s a great stash in deeper leagues in case anything happens to Najee. The Steelers’ backs other than Harris only handled 60 combined touches last year, but they’re likely to run more with Mitch Trubisky at QB, and Harris’ touches were close to maxed out in 2021. Pittsburgh passed at the 2^nd-highest rate in the NFL last season.

WRs Christian Watson & Romeo Doubs, GB (Wk. 1: @Min.): The Packers said goodbye to one of the best wide receivers in football in the offseason, Davante Adams, along with another regular starter in Marquez Valdes-Scantling. They added rookies Watson and Doubs in the draft to help soften the blow of those departures. Watson has been hampered by preseason injuries but should be ready to go for the opener. Meanwhile, fourth-round pick Doubs has been the star of camp. Allen Lazard is the presumptive WR1 in this offense, but he’s not practicing this week with an ankle injury and could miss Sunday’s game. I know that sets up perfectly for another patented Sammy Watkins week 1 performance, but Watson & Doubs have a chance to play meaningful roles against a Minnesota defense that allowed the most WR fantasy points per game last year. I prefer Doubs to Watson for this week, but both players have an intriguing upside for DFS contests assuming Lazard is out. Doubs costs the minimum on DraftKings. Watson is a bit pricier at $5,100.

WR Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG (Wk. 1: @Ten.): Robinson’s outlook for week 1 got a little murkier this week when Sterling Shepard announced he expects to be ready for week 1 after suffering a torn Achilles back in December. Wan’Dale looked like a lock to be the team’s starting slot WR to open the year, and I still think Shepard is going to be eased back in. Shepard was the starting slot WR in 2021, but Brian Daboll is a new head coach with a new offensive system, and Wan’Dale is the one who has been practicing with the ones throughout camp and the first regular season depth chart released by the team has him listed as a starter. Assuming Robinson starts, he faces a Titans’ defense that allowed the most fantasy points to receivers lined up in the slot in the league last year, per SIS. I think something like 5-60 is very possible in the rookie’s debut, with upside for more.

TE Isaiah Likely, BAL (Wk. 1: @NYJ): Likely got lucky this preseason when fellow rookie teammate Charlie Kolar suffered a sports hernia and opened the door for Likely to step into the TE2 role behind Mark Andrews. Andrews is as cemented as the starter as can be, but the Ravens jettisoned their WR1 Marquise Brown in the offseason, leaving not much depth behind Rashod Bateman in the receiver room. James Proche, Devin Duvernay, and Tylan Wallace all failed to establish themselves as the clear third option in the passing game, and it’s possible that Likely has done enough to show he can fill that void. The Ravens are going to get Likely on the field a lot this year, and the season-opening matchup is a great one for tight ends. The Jets ranked dead last in pass defense DVOA last season and allowed the 5^th-most TE points per game. Andrews will be the biggest beneficiary, but Isaiah Likely could see 5-7 targets himself in week 1 if he’s truly that third receiving option. Likely costs just $2,600 in the Draftkings showdown slate for this game.

TE Trey McBride, ARI (Wk. 1: vs. KC): Keep an eye on Zach Ertz’s status for the week 1 matchup if you’re considering McBride for a lineup. Ertz was able to return to the practice field for the first time in a couple of weeks on Wednesday. If he’s able to play, that makes McBride a bad week one option. If Ertz sits, McBride should be in line for a decent number of targets against a Kansas City defense that allowed the 10^th-most fantasy points to in-line tight ends last year. Most of McBride’s snaps at Colorado State were as an in-line tight end. He’s a phenomenal pass catcher, having logged 90 catches in 12 games last season in college. If Ertz sits, I like his chances for 5+ receptions in the opener, and he costs just $1,800 in showdown contests.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you get your season started on the right foot. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Welcome back to another season of NFL survivor pool extravaganza! Week one always seems to be one of the toughest to make picks, soo many question marks, and teams no longer show anything in the pre-season to help you get a feel for what is to come. I was already shocked on Thursday night when the Bills Schalacked the Rams at their ring ceremony. Not surprised they won, but the margin was insane, and holding LA to 10 points with 7 sacks, Wow! 

However, there is one thing I am certain of in this first week of the season. Russel Wilson and the Denver Broncos will not lose on Monday night to his former team up in Seattle. It's pretty simple. Russ will be highly motivated and the Seahawks are one of the teams pegged to be drafting at the top of the draft next year. Denver's defense will shut down the Hawks and won't need to put up much on offense.

My second pick would be either the Baltimore Ravens over the Jets or the Titans at home vs the Giants. After some back and forth I went with the Titans simply because it was a home game and I wanted to use them up early on and save the Ravens for later.

Cheers! Drink Five!

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

45 Years Old

Tom Brady became the oldest player to start a game at 45 years hold. While this is not necessarily a fantasy stat, it’s appreciated by someone who feels themselves getting older all the time. There were also zero rookie QBs starting this week. Finally, it’s time for middle-aged men to shine.

10 Players Scoring 2-TDs Each

Through Sunday, there are 10 players who scored 2 TDs each, and in an interesting quirk, half of those players are free agents in the drinkfive fantasy league. Those players – Jamaal Williams, Dontrell Hilliard, Devin Duvernay, Jahan Dotson, and O.J. Howard – are free agents, owned in just an average of 29% of Fleaflicker leagues. Week 1 is always a fun time to revisit your entire draft and blow your team up with the waiver wire, so put your claims in now!

34.9 Fantasy Points

The high-water mark for Week 1 is 34.9 fantasy points – achieved by two players who are common subjects in this space. Patrick Mahomes threw for 360 yards and 5 TDs. Mahomes now has 18 touchdowns in 5 opening days, a low QB rating of 123.3 on opening day, has not thrown a pick, and is 5-0.  Justin Jefferson also put up 34.9 fantasy points, having 9 receptions and 11 targets (on 9/11) and was one of the players who are owned in our league who had 2 TDs. His 184 receiving yards are a career high and his 15^th 100-yard game in his 34-game career.

8 D/STs with 10+ Points

Week 1 saw a lot of fantasy value coming from the defense/special teams slot. The Pittsburgh Steelers led the way with an astonishing 26 points. It helped a bit that they had a sack/fumble in bonus time to pad their numbers a bit. This performance was very impressive considering it came against the AFC Champion Bengals and Burrow had 2 more turnovers than he ever had in his career before. In an interesting tidbit, Burrow had the most rushing yards of his career in a single game. The Steelers are only owned in 51% of Fleaflicker leagues and play against New England next week, the offensive team that surrendered the second most points to their opposing D/ST in week 1.

5 WRs on New Teams with 14+ Points

Sometimes, a change of scenery works wonders. 5 Players on new teams – Tyreek Hill, Christian Kirk, Jarvis Landry, A.J. Brown, and Davante Adams – all scored at least 14 fantasy points for their new teams. Both Brown and Adams put up monster games over 20 points, picking right up where they left off with new QBs. A.J. Brown had the most receiving yards for any Eagles player in their debut game. In a case of good old home cookin’, Michael Thomas played his first game for New Orleans in 21 months, and had his best performance since December 2019. Thomas scored 2 touchdowns on his way to 20.2 fantasy points, good for WR7 on the week.

Just one week into the season and we have already seen a lot!

But do we really KNOW anything based off of one week? As you’ll see in this week’s picks, no, not really! Don’t forget that just a couple years ago the Jaguars upset the Colts in week 1 and created a bit of a hype train for themselves!

…they proceeded to finish the season 1-15. Week 1 isn’t the end all-be all of the season.

So let’s get back to the games!

Week 2 – HERE WE GO!!!!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

16 – GREEN BAY over Chicago – I’m not saying it will be similar to the aforementioned Jaguars season, BUT…my BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that THE BEARS WILL BE PICKING FIRST IN THE 2023 NFL DRAFT (oh I’m gonna get a lot of flak for this one…)

15 – LOS ANGELES RAMS over Atlanta – While week 1 doesn’t normally provide conclusive opinions, we did have yet another example of the Falcons with a large 4th quarter lead being the most unstable combination in the league.

14 – BUFFALO over Tennessee – Simply put, the Bills are going to be hard to beat this year.

13 – DENVER over Houston – Not even Nathaniel Hackett making decisions on any level can help the Texans this week.

12 – BALTIMORE over Miami – Remember what I said about Lamar playing like he wants to get paid? Yeah, let’s just keep rolling with that!

11 – SAN FRANCISCO over Seattle – To say that the 49ers offense looked as bad as it did last week was due to the game being played in Lake Michigan would be an understatement.

10 – LAS VEGAS over Arizona – We all knew that DeAndre Hopkins is great, but who knew he would be so crucial to the stability of the Cardinals’ offense?

9 – Tampa Bay over NEW ORLEANS – Ho-Hum…the Bucs are still good.

8 – CLEVELAND over New York Jets – There’s a elf that will be painted in the middle of the field…I don’t know, that’s about as excited as I can get for this one.

7 – Cincinnati over DALLAS – I would say that the way the Cowboys offense looked was due to a solid Tampa defense…but then there goes Dak…

6 – KANSAS CITY over Los Angeles Chargers – Just a quick reminder…Patrick Mahomes is OK

5 – PITTSBURGH over New England – This one can be considered the “Was Week 1 Really How They Are?” Bowl

4 – PHILADELPHIA over Minnesota – This should just be a fun one to watch with the Eagles winning simply because they are the home team.

3 – DETROIT over Washington – For the first time in years, the Lions are favored! That, plus the fact that Carson Wentz having a good game one week means a horrible game the next should make you pretty confident with the Lions…but obviously not TOO confident.

2 – NEW YORK GIANTS over Carolina – Even if the kick at the end of the game last week went in and the Giants lost, you would still have to feel confident in how they looked over all…and with how bad the Panthers looked.

1 – JACKSONVILLE Indianapolis – Surprisingly enough, the Colts haven’t won in Jacksonville in a few years. After how both teams looked last week, hard to see that trend changing…but always keep the Jags on the one-point line.