Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’ve made it to the end of another NFL season. Hopefully this season brought you fantasy success and good fortune. Hopefully my article last week helped talk some sense into you if you were considering sitting Ja’Marr Chase or Najee Harris last week, or helped you trust Amon-Ra St. Brown and Rhamondre Stevenson in the championship. In most leagues you already know whether or not you won. Most typical fantasy leagues this season were set up for a week 17 championship, and week 17 is now in the books, but not all leagues were set up that way. Some of you may be in leagues that were set up with a week 18 championship, or a two-week final that spans weeks 17 & 18. Your work isn’t done yet, and I’m here to help one more time if you have any rookies that you’re considering.
For those of you whose leagues concluded last week, you can put your feet up, kick back and relax this weekend and just watch the games for fun, or you can keep the fun rolling and dive into some DFS contests for the final week. The key for the final week is all about understanding motivation - which teams are motivated to win, and which teams are just trying to rest up for the playoffs or just get to the offseason. There will undoubtedly be unheralded players on those ‘unmotivated’ teams who see more action than we’re used to, and some of them are bound to be rookies. With that in mind, I’ll have a special section this week for rookies who could be in line for more work in week 18, and I’ll give a bit more of a DFS slant to some of the usual rookie suspects this week as well.
A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game numbers and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 18…
Rookies You Already Know You Should Start:
RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 18: @Bal.): The Ravens have been much better at defending the run than the pass, but that hasn’t stopped them from giving up 13+ fantasy points to a running back in each of their last 4 games, including to Najee in week 13. The Steelers will do everything in their power to try to get Ben Roethlisberger to the playoffs one more time, so we should see their normal starters for the whole game here. For Harris, that probably means close to 20 touches or more. That volume makes him an RB1 again this week. The Steelers still would need an unlikely Jacksonville upset over the Colts to have a shot at the postseason, but they’re not going to hold Najee back.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Starting:
QB Trey Lance, SF (Wk. 18: @LAR): Jimmy Garoppolo’s status remains up in the air for this week, but if Lance gets the nod, he should be treated like a low-end QB1 even in a tough matchup. The Rams allow the 6th-fewest QB points per game, but Lance has averaged 55 rushing yards per game in the 3 contests where he’s seen extended playing time, and the Rams allow more QB rushing yards per game than any of the 3 teams Lance has faced. This week’s slate is already missing Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson, and a number of other QB are at risk of being pulled early either due to clinched playoff spots or if their team pulls away – Dak Prescott, Aaron Rodgers, Carson Wentz, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Mac Jones, Tom Brady. It’s hard to argue against Lance as a top-10 QB this week given how risky some of the usual top QBs are, and how much floor his rushing provides.
QB Davis Mills, HOU (Wk. 18: vs. Ten.): Mills was a disappointment last week, but he finished as a top-15 quarterback in each of the 4 starts prior, and this week he faces a Titans’ defense that has allowed the 13th-most QB points per game. Houston should be in a negative game script that will keep Mills throwing. Mills isn’t any more than a QB2 option this week, but a lot of QBs may not play full games in week 18, and with Mills, you know he’s likely to play the whole thing.
RB Elijah Mitchell, SF (Wk. 18: @LAR): The 49ers have had the Rams’ number since Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay took over as coaches for those franchises. SF has beaten LA 6 times in 9 meetings, including the last 5 in a row. The Rams need to win this game to clinch the division title, but the 49ers need to win it to clinch a playoff spot. San Francisco is likely to be the more desperate team, and Mitchell has been a focal point of the offense whenever he’s healthy. Mitchell has handled 17+ carries 8 times this season, and he’s rushed for 90+ yards in 6 of those games, including the first meeting with these Rams. The Rams are a tough matchup, ranked 4th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat, but Mitchell should see a big workload and is a safe RB2 with upside for more.
RB Michael Carter, NYJ (Wk. 18: @Buf.): Carter left quickly last week with a concussion but sounds likely to get cleared ahead of this week’s finale in Buffalo. If he plays, Carter should see a big workload in a matchup that is much more favorable than it was a couple months ago. Buffalo will be pulling out all the stops, needing a win to clinch the division title, but their run defense has crumbled in recent weeks. Buffalo allowed only 2 backs to reach 10+ fantasy points in their first 8 games of the season but have allowed 7 backs to hit that mark in their last 8, including Carter in week 10. Five of the 6 highest rushing yardage totals they’ve allowed this season also came in those 8 games. Don’t be afraid of the matchup here. Carter should be treated as an RB2 this week.
RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 18: @Mia.): The Patriots are favored by just 6 points this week, but it’s a game where one team is motivated to win, and the other isn’t. We’ve seen New England dismantle teams when they play with a purpose. The Patriots were on the winning side of 3 of the 7 most lopsided games in the NFL this season. The Patriots need this win to keep their hopes of a division title alive, and Damien Harris is expected to play through a hamstring injury this week. I’d expect that we see a lot of Rhamondre if the Patriots get out in front as New England lets Harris rest his hammy as much as they can. The Dolphins allow the 7th-fewest RB points per game, but they were steamrolled by D’Onta Foreman and Dontrell Hilliard last week and have less motivation to win this week. I’d expect Stevenson to have a floor somewhere around 60 yards, but he has similar upside to last week, when he scored 22.7 fantasy points.
RB Jaret Patterson, WAS (Wk. 18: @NYG): Antonio Gibson is practicing as though he’s going to return this week from a hip injury that sidelined him in week 17, but there’s little reason for Washington to push for him to return for a meaningless tilt with the Giants. I wouldn’t be surprised if Gibson winds up inactive for this one, but even if he plays, Patterson should still play quite a bit against a defense that allows the 8th-most RB points per game and ranks 29th in run defense DVOA. 12-15 touches against that defense are likely even if Gibson plays. That should put Patterson on the RB2/3 borderline, and he bumps up higher if Gibson sits.
WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Wk. 18: vs. GB): St. Brown has been on an absolute tear over the last 5 weeks, totaling at least 11 targets, 8 receptions and 70 yards in every single game, and finding the end zone at least once in 4 of them. I wouldn’t bet against him continuing to produce in week 18. Jared Goff will be back at QB, D’Andre Swift said he expects his own usage to be similar to last week (57% snap share, 8% target share), so he shouldn’t steal too many of Amon-Ra’s opportunities. The Packers have the number 1 seed locked up and will be resting many of their starters and the Lions can’t hurt their draft position with a win unless the Jaguars also win this week, which is HIGHLY unlikely. Detroit is going to treat this game like their Super Bowl, and that should mean a lot of ARSB again. I wouldn’t treat him as a lock to approach 20 fantasy points again, but his target volume should approach what we’ve seen from him in recent weeks. That makes him at least an upside WR3 this week.
WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 18: vs. NE): Waddle moves out of the auto-start range this week with the Dolphins having little to play for, but I still like his chances for a solid game. The Pats allow the 5th-fewest WR points per game, but they’ve struggled to contain slot receivers. New England’s slot corner Jalen Mills has allowed a 115.4 passer rating into his coverage, and the Pats allowed slot receiver stat lines of 7-73 to Braxton Berrios, 6-77-1 to Keenan Allen, 11-125-1 to Isaiah McKenzie, and 4-64-1 to Jaylen Waddle in the first meeting with Miami. Miami could get some bench guys involved if they fall way behind, but Waddle should be heavily involved until that happens.
WR Rashod Bateman, BAL (Wk. 18: vs. Pit.): Bateman’s had a bit of an up-and-down rookie year, but he has shown a connection with backup QB Tyler Huntley, amassing 7 receptions in 2 of Huntley’s last 3 starts, and the Steelers are just a middling pass defense. Bateman should primarily matchup up with Cameron Sutton, who has allowed over 9 yards per target and a 114.5 passer rating into his coverage. The Ravens still have slim playoff hopes headed into this week, so they won’t hold anything back. Bateman is probably going to see the ball come his way 7+ times and has a chance to post one of his better games of the season.
TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 18: vs. NO): Pitts is battling a hamstring injury that he suffered last week and faces a New Orleans defense that allows the 8th-fewest TE points per game. He’s still a worthwhile TE play if he’s able to go. Pitts enters week 18 just 59 yards away from breaking Mike Ditka’s record for receiving yards by a rookie tight end, and the Falcons don’t have much left to play for other than breaking that record. It’s not a great matchup for Pitts, but I expect the Falcons to go out of their way to make sure he gets that record. He probably needs to finally score his second TD for a ceiling week, but he should have close to a 60-yard floor if he’s able to play.
TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 18: @Bal.): Freiermuth saw his highest target total since week 11 on Monday night, but he turned it into an underwhelming 5-22 line. It’s hard to put much blame on Pat as Ben Roethlisberger put up literally one of the least efficient passing performances of all-time. He became only the 14th QB ever to have a game with 20+ attempts, a 50% completion percentage or better, and fewer than 3 yards per attempt. Ben had 14 more passing attempts Monday night than any of the other 13 QBs on the list. I can’t imagine that Ben is that inefficient again this week, and the Ravens allow the 6th-most TE points per game. Freiermuth is always a fringe TE1, and this week he gets a plus matchup with Big Ben due for a bounce-back game. I like his chances at a strong game.
Borderline Rookies I’d Lean Toward Sitting:
QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 18: @Mia.): I expect the Patriots to be in control of their game again this week, and for Jones to be efficient in a conservative gameplan again, but I don’t expect the team to put up anywhere near the 50 points they scored last Sunday. You could do worse if you’re looking for a QB2, but Mac has a limited ceiling in this one. He’s thrown for under 230 yards in 7 of his last 9 games and accounted for multiple TDs in just 4 of them.
RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 18: vs. KC): In two games with Drew Lock under center, Williams has run for 42 yards on 21 carries, and posted 10 receiving yards on 3 targets and 3 receptions. He was able to salvage his day in week 16 with a TD, but he put up just 4.2 PPR points in championship week. Defenses have been able to stack the box to prevent Denver’s run game from getting going, and I don’t see that changing this week. The Chiefs can lock up the #2 seed and homefield advantage through the divisional round with a win and should be motivated. Williams put up his best game of the season in the Broncos’ first meeting with KC, but he did that with Melvin Gordon sidelined and Teddy B under center. Javonte has a bright future in 2022, but I wouldn’t treat him as anything more than an upside RB3 this week.
RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Wk. 18: @TB): Sam Darnold’s return to the starting lineup last week was clearly a good thing for Hubbard, who posted his best fantasy day since week 8 last weekend, but it won’t be enough to overcome a rough matchup this week. The Bucs allow the 4th-fewest RB points per game and held Hubbard to 9 yards on 6 carries just two weeks ago. Bruce Arians has also been clear that the Bucs aren’t resting up for the playoffs. They’re playing to win this week. Hubbard has upside as the Panthers’ lead back, but he’s got a low floor that will get even lower if the Bucs pull away in this one.
WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 18: vs. Dal.): Everything about this game points towards both teams resting their starters for a large chunk of the game. Smith has earned more than 6 targets just once in the last 9 games. There could be a bigger target share than usual for him with Dallas Goedert on the Covid list, but that won’t matter all that much if he plays a limited number of snaps and matches up with Trevon Diggs when he’s on the field. Smith has WR2/3 upside as usual, but he’s got a lower floor than usual as well.
WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 18: @Cle.): I know, Chase single-handedly won many people their championships last weekend, but he’s as dicey a play this week as he’s been all season. The Bengals have already ruled out Joe Burrow for this week and will likely be without Joe Mixon as well. Any hopes the Bengals have to secure the AFC’s 1-seed will be dashed if the Chiefs win on Saturday, and I wouldn’t expect them to go all-out when a win this week simply guarantees them the 3-seed instead of #4. Brandon Allen will start in Burrow’s place. He got 5 starts last season and averaged just 191 passing yards and 1 TD per game. The Browns have allowed the 12th-fewest WR points per game, and there’s a real chance that Chase won’t play the full game. If you have a week 18 game, I’d view Chase as a very risky WR3 option, and wouldn’t pay up for him in DFS at his $8,300 DraftKings price.
TE John Bates, WAS (Wk. 18: @NYG): Bates has proven to be a viable desperation floor play tight end since taking over the starting job in Washington. He’s reached 35 yards in 3 of the last 5 games, and found the end zone in one of them, but that’s not enough to make him a reasonable starting option if you’re not desperate. He’s also more expensive than I’d like for DFS given what his production has looked like. A line in the range of 3-40 with a slim chance of a TD feels like the high end of what you should expect here. Dalton Schultz is the only tight end to score 10+ fantasy points against the Giants in the last 6 weeks.
Rookies You Already Know You Should Sit:
QB Zach Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 18: @Buf.): Wilson has played improved football in recent weeks, but the Bills defense has held 7 of the last 9 QBs they’ve faced below 12 fantasy points, and they figure to be locked-in for this one with the division title at stake. Even with his improved play, Wilson has only accounted for multiple TDs 4 times all season. There’s a lot more floor than ceiling here.
QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 18: vs. Ind.): The Colts allow the 8th-most QB points per game, but Lawrence has topped a dozen fantasy points just twice in his last 10 games, and the Colts need to win this game to make the playoffs. I wouldn’t count on an out-of-the-blue breakout game for Lawrence. Hopefully he’s able to put things back together next season with a new coaching staff.
WR Josh Palmer, LAC (Wk. 18: @LV): With all the Chargers’ receivers healthy last week, Palmer still garnered 5 targets for the Chargers, but his playing time dropped significantly from week 16. Jalen Guyton is another week removed from the Covid list, so Palmer’s snap share could drop further this week. Palmer has reached 30 receiving yards just twice all season. He played over 85% of the offensive snaps in both of those games. He won’t approach that kind of playing time in the must-win matchup with the Raiders.
WR Nico Collins, HOU (Wk. 18: vs. Ten.): Collins costs too much to be a worthwhile DFS play in a plus matchup for WRs, and he isn’t a consistent enough producer to be worth consideration for regular lineups. Collins has put up 7-82-1 on 13 targets in the last 3 weeks combined. The Titans allow the 2nd-most WR points per game, but the only trustworthy WR in this offense in Brandin Cooks.
WR D’Wayne Eskridge, SEA (Wk. 18: @Ari.): The Seahawks don’t have much to play for this weekend, but I expect Pete Carroll to attempt to make a last stand of sorts. A win this week probably won’t put his job on any more stable footing, but I expect Carroll to coach to win. Eskridge hasn’t handled more than 3 touches in any game this season, and I don’t see a good reason that changes this week.
TE Brevin Jordan, HOU (Wk. 18: vs. Ten.): Jordan has been targeted more than 4 times in a game just once all season, and the Titans have allowed the 6th-fewest TE points per game this season. Tennessee needs a win in this game to secure a first-round bye, and they’ll be eager to avenge a loss to Houston in week 11, so there will be no let up from their defense. Jordan should see a handful of targets, but that’s not likely to be enough for a productive week in this one. No tight end has scored a TD against the Titans since week 8.
TE Kenny Yeboah, NYJ (Wk. 18: @Buf.): Yeboah was thrust into the starting role last week with Trevon Wesco on IR and Tyler Kroft on the Covid list, but it resulted in just 2 targets for the rookie. Kroft was activated earlier this week. That means Yeboah probably plays closer to 30% of the snaps than the 61% share he played last Sunday. I’d be surprised if he sees more than 2 or 3 targets in this one, and he’s facing a Buffalo defense that allows the 5th-fewest TE points per game.
TE Tommy Tremble, CAR (Wk. 18: @TB): Tremble missed last week with Covid. If he’s feeling any lingering effects from that, it makes his chances of a longshot good game even longer. Even if he’s at full strength, Tremble’s best fantasy performance in the last 10 games resulted in 5.5 PPR points. There isn’t any upside here.
Rookies Who Could Get Extended Playing Time in Week 18:
RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 18: vs. Dal., DK Showdown price: $1,600): Miles Sanders has been ruled out for week 18, and Jordan Howard and Boston Scott were both placed on the Covid list earlier this week. That leaves Gainwell as the only healthy back on the team. Obviously, it’s possible that one or both of Howard and Scott get cleared to return this week, but if they don’t, Gainwell is going to handle a huge number of touches against a Dallas team that may be resting starters since they’ve already clinched the division. Don’t be surprised if Gainwell comes out of nowhere to post a top-15 RB performance in the finale.
RB Chris Evans, CIN (Wk. 18: @Cle., DK Showdown price: $1,000): With Joe Mixon sidelined this week, the Bengals’ backfield work will be split between Samaje Perine and Evans. Perine has been the clear-cut RB2 in this offense this year, but this could be a golden opportunity to get the receiving specialist Evans some extra work with the Bengals nearly a touchdown underdog. Brandon Allen is more likely to check down than Joe Burrow. I’d expect Evans to play at least 25% of the offensive snaps, with the possibility for more if the Bengals do fall behind. 5+ targets and 5+ carries are well within the reasonable range of expectations for Evans this week.
RB Khalil Herbert, CHI (Wk. 18: @Min., DK Showdown price: $800): The Bears and Vikings don’t have much to play for this week with both eliminated from playoff contention. I think it’s likely that Matt Nagy knows that a win here won’t save his job, so there’s no reason to run David Montgomery into the ground. Andy Dalton gets the start for Chicago with Justin Fields on the Covid list, and I’d expect Chicago to be handing off plenty. Herbert is a risky option who is only worth consideration for Showdown DFS contests, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he sees increased playing time in the 2nd half against a defense that ranks 25th in run defense DVOA.
RB Demetric Felton, CLE (Wk. 18: vs. Cin., DK Showdown price: $200): It remains up in the air whether or not Kareem Hunt will be able to return for this game and D’Ernest Johnson was placed on the Covid list this week. That leaves just Felton behind Nick Chubb on the Browns’ running back depth chart. Johnson has played over 30% of the offensive snaps in each of the last 3 games with Hunt sidelined. If Johnson can’t get cleared, I wouldn’t expect Felton’s role to be quite that big, but 20+ snaps are a possibility. His receiving skill gives him a double-digit point ceiling even if his floor remains non-existent.
WR Anthony Schwartz, CLE (Wk. 18: vs. Cin., DK Showdown price: $1,400): Schwartz played his highest snap share since week 9 last Monday, taking snaps away from Rashard Higgins in the process. The Browns could increase that even more this week as they evaluate what they have in the rookie. Case Keenum will be starting at QB for the Browns, and Schwartz likely has a solid rapport with Keenum due to practicing together with the second team offense. Schwartz has been targeted 3+ times in just 3 games this season, and one of them was Keenum’s only start of the season. The Bengals will be resting many of their starters, which means Schwartz could make a splash play or two against their backup DBs. His floor is essentially 0 points, but there’s a chance for a boom game here.
WR Amari Rodgers, GB (Wk. 18: @Det., DK Showdown price: $200): I’d be surprised if any key Packers are still on the field in the 2nd half of this game, and even Jordan Love should be able to have success throwing against Detroit’s defense that ranks 29th in pass defense DVOA. I expect Amari and Equanimeous St. Brown to play a lot in the second half, and that gives Amari huge upside at his $200 Showdown slate price tag.
That’s all I’ve got for this season. Hopefully it helps guide you to championship victory in your leagues if that’s still up for grabs, or at least a little DFS cash. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. It’s been a pleasure bringing you these rookie tidbits all year, and I look forward to doing it again with the new rookie crop in 2022. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
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