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Welcome  back to the Rookie Report! It's been a roller coaster ride of a season, but we've finally arrived at championship week. Week 15 was loaded with fantasy carnage as several weekly studs turned into duds with the season on the line. Saquon Barkley, Adam Thielen and Keenan Allen are just a few of the let downs that had to be overcome. Hopefully you were able to avoid those pitfalls and made your way to the league championship game. The decisions don't get any easier this week with a lot of injury uncertainty and so few players feeling like sure things right now. I'm here to help, at least as it pertains to your rookies. Keep in mind that any players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order I would play them this week. Let's dive into the matchups...

Rookies to Start:

RB Saquon Barkley, NYG (Wk. 16: @Ind.): I'm sure most of you know better than to read too much into Barkley's worst game of the season last week...but if you're nervous about it I have some reassuring numbers. The Titans he faced last week have allowed the fewest RB fantasy points per game this season (all rankings and point totals in PPR format). The Colts are just a middling RB defense, and they've been especially vulnerable to receiving backs like Saquon. Only Atlanta has allowed more RB catches than the 100 that Indy has given up, and the Colts have also coughed up the 6th-most receiving yards to the position. Saquon should get back on track and should be started with confidence in all formats.

RB Nick Chubb, CLE (Wk. 16: vs. Cin.): Chubb should be one of the best RB plays of the week. He managed to run for 100 yards in a much tougher matchup last week. The Bengals rank just 26th in Football Outsiders' run defense DVOA stat, and they allow the 2nd-most RB points per game. Game script should also be in Chubb's favor with the Browns an 8.5-point favorite. Chubb should carry it a ton this week and is an obvious RB1 play this week.

RB Phillip Lindsay, DEN (Wk. 16: @Oak.): Lindsay has been in a bit of a funk since Emmanuel Sanders was lost for the season and defenses have been able to focus on stopping him, but I think he has a great chance to break out of that funk this week. The Raiders rank 27th in run defense DVOA and have given up the 2nd-most rushing yards to opposing RBs. Denver is a 3-point road favorite and should at least be able to keep the game script neutral or positive all day. The defense should still be keyed in on Lindsay, but he's still a solid RB2 play this week.

RB Jaylen Samuels, PIT (Wk. 16: @NO): It looks like James Conner will be out again, and the Steelers might also be missing JuJu Smith-Schuster as well. Samuels should be a focal point of the offense even in a less than ideal matchup. The Saints allow the 4th-fewest RB points per game, but also rank just 30th in pass defense DVOA on throws to running backs. Samuels should be able to do enough as a receiver to offset any struggles he has on the ground. He's had 12 catches in the past 3 weeks, and managed to be the RB14 last week without scoring a TD. He should be a solid RB2 and a solid bet to find the end zone in a game with the 2nd-highest over/under of the week (53).

RB Sony Michel, NE (Wk. 16: vs. Buf.): Like Phillip Lindsay, Michel has been in a bit of a funk. He hasn't reached 65 yards rushing or found the end zone in the past 3 weeks, and has just one catch to go along with the rushing production. The Bills aren't a pushover matchup (9th in run defense DVOA), but I still like Michel's chances to have a strong performance. The Pats are a 2-touchdown favorite, and the Bills have allowed the 10th-most RB points per game. The 15 RB rushing scores they've allowed are tied for the 2nd-most in the league. This sets up as more of a Michel week than James White week.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Baker Mayfield, CLE (Wk. 16: vs. Cin.): The production has been a bit light for Mayfield over the past few weeks, but this is a good spot for him to get back on track. The Bengals have been playing improved pass defense since the return of slot corner Darqueze Dennard, but they still allow the most QB points per game in the league. They've been giving up 15.6 QB points per game in the 5 games since Dennard returned after allowing 23.4 per game prior to that, but it isn't all from better defensive play. The bigger concern for Mayfield is game script. The Bengals without Andy Dalton have struggled to stay competitive most weeks, and opponents haven't had to throw. They've faced fewer than 30 pass attempts 6 times all year, and 4 of them are in the past 5 games. That risk that the Browns stop throwing is what keeps me from saying Mayfield is a sure start. He's more of a low-end QB1 for me this week.

QB Lamar Jackson, BAL (Wk. 16: @LAC): The Chargers are a tough matchup, but Lamar's running ability has given him a safe weekly floor. He's run for at least 67 yards in each of his starts, and his rushing floor is much safer than Josh Allen's since much of it comes on designed runs rather than scrambles. The Chargers rank an uninspiring 18th in run defense DVOA, and Lamar has finished between the QB9 and QB14 in every start so far. I'd expect him to be right in that same ballpark once again this week.

QB Josh Allen, BUF (Wk. 16: NE): Allen has been riding a real heater over the past 4 weeks, but I think all of us are kind of waiting for him to turn into a pumpkin. Will this be the week? Who knows. His rushing production took a pretty big dip last week, but he still did enough to end up as the QB4 for the week. He should be throwing plenty against New England. The Patriots are a 2-touchdown favorite and average 33.5 team points per game at home in Foxboro. New England has allowed the 10th-most QB points per game and has been vulnerable to moblie QBs this season. Allen should be on the QB1/QB2 borderline this week, but it will mostly depend on what he's able to do with his legs. 55% of his fantasy points in the last 4 weeks have come from rushing production. There's a lot of risk here, but Allen has come through in 4 straight.

RB Gus Edwards, BAL (Wk. 16: @LAC): This is a bit of a riskier week for Gus Edwards. The Chargers do allow the 9th-most RB points per game, but they are much more vulnerable to receiving back than pure runners and Edwards hasn't caught a pass since week 8. The Chargers have allowed the 9th-fewest RB rushing yards, and the 3rd-most receiving yards to the position. There is a bit of a silver lining for Edwards. LA has coughed up 8 rushing scores to opposing backs in the past 5, and Gus's workload seems to be safe even with the return of Kenneth Dixon. Edwards has carried at least 16 times in every game since he took over as the lead back. He's a solid flex play, and as always a better option in non-PPR leagues.

RB Kalen Ballage, MIA (Wk. 16: vs. Jax.): Outside of a 75-yard TD run, Ballage tallied 11 carries for 48 yards and 1 catch for -2 last weekend. That's still over 4 yards per carry when you remove his best run of the day. That gives some reason for optimism even going into a tough matchup this week with the Jaguars. Jacksonville has allowed fewer that 60 RB rushing yards in 4 of their last 5 games (and were shredded by Derrick Henry in the other). Workload alone puts Ballage firmly on the flex radar, but the lack of track record makes him a risky option. He'll be a sneaky DFS tournament play if he winds up being a factor in the passing game as well. I'm not sure if Kenyan Drake will still factor in there or not, but Ballage was one of the best route runners of this RB class in collge.

RB Josh Adams, PHI (Wk. 16: vs. Hou.): As quickly as Adams became the clear lead back in Philly, he has been relegated to committee work once again. Instead of Corey Clement, it's Wendell Smallwood and Darren Sproles sharing the load with him. Adams hasn't caught a pass in 4 weeks and has just 22 carries total in the past 2 weeks after tallying 20 & 22 carries in the previous 2 weeks. He also is looked to be clearly less than 100% last weekend. The Eagles are leaning on the run game more with Nick Foles under center, but Adams is just a dicey flex option against a Texans defense that is allowing the 9th-fewest RB points per game.

WR Dante Pettis, SF (Wk. 16: vs. Chi.): The Bears defense has been phenomenal this year, but the one fantasy position they haven't fully shut down is wide receiver. Chicago allows the 11th-most WR points per game, and Pettis has put up 13+ PPR points in 4 straight games. The targets should be there once again, making Pettis an upside WR3/flex option even against the Bears' elite defense.

WR Calvin Ridley, ATL (Wk. 16: @Car.): Ridley is a dicey flex option this week IF Julio Jones plays. He should get a nice bump if Jones is out however. The Panthers are a plus matchup for him. Carolina ranks 28th in pass defense DVOA and allows th 9th-most WR points per game. Ridley has shown huge upside even with Julio on the field, but he's also failed to reach 50 yards or 10 PPR points in 5 of his last 7 games. I'd certainly lean towards starting him if Julio sits, but he's a boom-or-bust option as usual if Julio is out there.

WR Robert Foster, BUF (Wk. 16: @NE): Foster has burst onto the scene as Josh Allen has gone on his hot streak, posting 90+ receiving yards in 4 of his last 5 games and 17+ fantasy points in 3 of his last 4. The Pats have just a middling WR defense, and Foster has clearly emerged as a favorite target of Allen. I'd be tempted to call him a boom-or-bust option given his deep ball skills and the inexperience of this offense, but his production thus far has been really consistent. Foster should be a pretty solid WR3 option this week.

WR DaeSean Hamilton, DEN (Wk. 16: @Oak.): Hamilton hasn't shown a high ceiling, but he's shown a high floor after seeing a team-high 21 targets in the last 2 weeks. Case Keenum clearly likes targeting his slot WRs, and the Raiders are just average at defending the slot even though they allow the 9th-fewest WR points per game overall. There isn't big yardage upside, but 8-10 targets are likely for Hamilton this week. That makes him an intriguing flex for deeper PPR leagues.

TE Chris Herndon, NYJ (Wk. 16: vs. GB): Herndon's 3-53 line last Saturday was his best in 3 weeks. He gets to face off with Green Bay this week. The Packers have allowed the 7th-fewest TE points per game for the season, but have allowed 6+ catches and 50+ yards to the position in 3 of their past 4, and they rank just 22nd in pass defense DVOA on throws to the tight ends. Herndon is right on the cusp of being a top-10 option in the wasteland that is the tight end position.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Josh Rosen, ARI (Wk. 16: vs. LAR): The Rams have allowed 10 or fewer QB points in each of the past 3 games, and in 5 of the 6 games that Aqib Talib has played in. Rosen hasn't thrown a TD pass in the last 3 games, and hasn't reached 10 points in the last 4. The Cardinals have an implied team total of just 15 points. Rosen may be the worst QB option out there this week. If you're considering starting him as a superflex out of desperation, I'd look at playing a non-QB instead.

RB Royce Freeman, DEN (Wk. 16: @Oak.): If Denver puts the pieces together and returns to the form they showed a few weeks back, Freeman has a chance at a decent game in garbage time. I wouldn't count on that though. Royce is no more than a TD roll of the dice in the deepest of leagues.

RB Jeff WIlson Jr., SF (Wk. 16: vs. Chi.): After amassing 23 and 24 touches in the two games Matt Breida missed, Wilson dropped back to just 7 with Breida back out there in week 15. There is no tougher defense in the league than the Chicago Bears, and that means there is no reason to roll Wilson out there in any fantasy lineups as the 49ers RB2.

RB Justin Jackson, LAC (Wk. 16: vs. Bal.): The return of Melvin Gordon will render Jackson irrelevant for fantasy purposes this week, even with Austin Ekeler likely out. Jackson should see the change of pace work usually reserved for Ekeler, but the Ravens allow the 2nd-fewest RB points per game. If Gordon is somehow out again, Jackson would be a low-end RB2 option.

WR DJ Moore, CAR (Wk. 16: vs. Atl.): There may be some upside for DJ with the QB switch from Cam Newton to Taylor Heinecke, but it's a big risk to bank on that in championship week. Newton  clearly hasn't been healthy in a few weeks and Heinecke could ultimately prove to be an upgrade in the short term. This is a decent matchup with the Falcons ranking 30th in pass defense DVOA, but it would take some real cojones to roll Moore out in championship week with a QB making his first career start.

WR Courtland Sutton, DEN (Wk. 16: @Oak.): The Raiders allow the 3rd-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing WR1s, and Sutton has been out-targeted by fellow rookie DaeSean Hamilton in consecutive games since Emmanuel Sanders was injured. Sutton hasn't produced much in those two game, tallying 7-56-0 on 11 targets. He's flashed some real talent, but Keenum hasn't shown a consistent ability to deliver the ball to the perimeter. Sutton is a risky play at best outside of really deep leagues.

WR Michael Gallup, DAL (Wk. 16: vs. TB): Gallup was targeted a whopping zero times last week in the shutout loss to Indy just a week after seeing 9 targets against Philly. That's too much volatility to have any trust in him even in a plus matchup. Tampa allows the 5th-most WR points per game, but Gallup isn't a top-40 option this week.

WRs Tre'Quan Smith & Keith Kirkwood, NO (Wk. 16: vs. Pit.): Smith is the bigger name here, but Kirkwood has been the more productive receiver over the past 4 weeks with 2 TDs. Neither should be near your championship week lineups though. Kirkwood has averaged just 24 yards per game over those last 4 games, and Tre'Quan has just 2 catches for 15 yards in total in that span. The game is at home, where New Orleans' offense is much more potent, and the Steelers  rank 21s in pass defense DVOA, so there is some upside in DFS formats. I'd prefer Smith if I were rolling the dice on one of them, but I'd stay far away in season-long leagues.

WR Marcell Ateman, OAK (Wk. 16: vs. Den.): Only 2 teams allow more points to opposing WR2s than the Broncos, but Ateman has averaged fewer than 30 receiving yards and has just one touchdown in the 5 games he's played. Jordy Nelson, Jared Cook and Jalen Richard are all higher in the target pecking order than Ateman. You can find the same upside without as much risk.

TE Dallas Goedert, PHI (Wk. 16: vs. Hou.): In his first real action with Nick Foles at QB, Goedert did little, pulling in 2 catches for 12 yards on 2 targets. Alshon Jeffery seems to be Foles' top target, and Golden Tate was much more involved after the switch as well. The Texans have struggled to defend tight ends, allowing just under 19 PPR points per game to the position over the past 6 contests. The matchup gives a shred of hope to those of you looking at Goedert as a TD dart throw, but I'd probably steer clear and chase a Zach Ertz bounce-back instead.

TEs Mark Andrews & Hayden Hurst, BAL (Wk. 16: @LAC): Both players continue to cannibalize the other's fantasy upside. Andrews has consistently shown more as a receiver than Hurst, but both are poor options in championship week.

TE Tyler Conklin, MIN (Wk. 16: @Det.): Conklin's role has been increasing of late, and he did post a season-high 53 receiving yards last Sunday, but he did that on just 3 targets. The Lions have allowed just 24 TE yards per game and 1 TD to the position over the past 5 games. All Conklin is accomplishing right now is killing Kyle Rudolph's upside.

TEs Jordan Thomas & Jordan Akins, HOU (Wk. 16: @Phi.): The Eagles allow the 8th-fewest TE points per game, and the Texans targeted their tight end group a total of twice last week. They have a 3-man tight end rotation. There's no reason to go here in any format.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

QB Sam Darnold, NYJ (Wk. 16: vs. GB): Darnold is coming off his best game of the season, and gets to face a Green Bay defense that has allowed multiple TD passes to 6 of the 7 QBs they've faced away from Lambeau. A big yardage game is unlikely as the Packers have only given up 250 or more passing yards in 5 of their 14 games on the year. Darnold hasn't shown the kind of ceiling you'd be looking for in DFS, but something in the ballpark of 225 yards and 2 or 3 TDs would certainly be servicable from a QB2 or superflex option.

RB John Kelly, LAR (Wk. 16: @Ari.): Todd Gurley's status is very much up in the air this week with the news that he hasn't run at all since last Sunday. The Rams need a win this week to help the secure a bye, but likely don't have to force Gurley into action to get one. The Rams did sign CJ Anderson this week, and a lot of media folks picked up on a comment Sean McVay made that "you can see Anderson playing a role as early as this week." I think they're reading too much into that comment. Kelly has been patiently biding his time behind Gurley, and I think it is him and not CJA who will handle the bulk of the work if Gurley is sidelined. The Cardinals allow the 4th-most RB points per game, so the upside here is huge. It would be a big leap of faith to play Kelly, but he has the skill to cash in if given the opportunity. NFL.com's Graham Barfield noted earlier this week that in college Kelly had the 3rd-most missed tackles forced per carry of any RBs to enter the league in the last 3 years behind only Saquon Barkley and Joe Mixon. This could be his time to shine. Obviously make sure that Gurley is out before pulling the trigger here, and pay attention to see if McVay gives any further indications what the workload split will look like.

RB Nyheim Hines, IND (Wk. 16: vs. NYG): This is as good a week as any to take a shot on Hines. The Giants are tied for the league-most 6 receiving TDs allowed to opposing RBs. Hines tallied 10 touches last week in the Colts' blowout win against Dallas, and Indy is a 9-point favorite this week. He's still a volatile option as long as he's playing behind Marlon Mack, but one with nice upside in DFS tournaments and in the deepest PPR leagues.

WR James Washington, PIT (Wk. 16: @NO): With JuJu Smith Schuster popping up on the injury report mid-week, Washington suddenly looks like he could be a potential week/league-winner. JuJu suffered a groin injury in practice Thursday, and it would be Washington who would step in opposite Antonio Brown if Smith-Schuster were to sit out. Washington is coming off a season-best 3-65 performance last week, and the Saints allow more WR points than any other team in the league. The Steelers are a 6-point underdog and should be throwing more than enough to make Washington a viable WR3 or better if Smith-Schuster is out on Sunday.

WR Antonio Callaway, CLE (Wk. 16: vs. Cin.): The Bengals have shut down opposing slot WRs since the return of Darqueze Dennard, and it'll be Jarvis Landry who squares off with him this week. That should help open things up for the Browns' outiside receivers. Breshad Perriman and Rashard Higgins are still splitting snaps on one side, and it's Callaway lining up on the other. Callaway has 50 receiving yards and/or a score in 5 of his last 7 games. He has solid upside for DFS lineups and deeper leagues.

WR Anthony Miller, CHI (Wk. 16: @SF): Miller has been a total non-factor of late with just 1 catch for 1 yard in his past 3 games, but the time may be right for a resurgence. Miller may be a sneaky DFS tournament option this week. The Bears' offense is one that seemingly has a different standout each week, and the 49ers allow the 6th-most points per game to opposing WRs and the 5th-most to opposing slot WRs. He's a huge risk given how little he's been involved lately, but if the Bears get him involved again it's a risk that could pay off nicely.

TE Ian Thomas, CAR (Wk. 16: vs. ATL): Thomas is a wild card this week with Heinecke at quarterback, but inexperienced QBs have a tendency to lean on their tight ends. The Falcons ar a middling TE defense (18th-most points allowed, 15th in pass DVOA on throws to TEs), and Heinecke is a total unknown since Old Dominion was only an FBS program for one year that he was there. Thomas has been a pretty big part of the game plan since Greg Olsen was lost for the year, and that makes him at least a dart throw in the deepest of leagues and in DFS tournaments.

That's all I've got for this week. Hopefully it helps you make he toughest decisions you've got for your lineups that involve rookies, and hopefully it helps you to a championship. Keep a very close eye on the injury report and the guys who end up inactive on game day. Some of these projections are contingent on other guys being out, and also you'll be kicking yourself if you start anyone who ends up inactive. Feel free to hit me up on twitter with any specific questions or if you want to yell at me about anything written above (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.

47.80 Fantasy Points

Derrick Henry has set a new high-water mark for the 2018 fantasy football season, taking 17 carries and converting them into 238 yards and 4 TDs. That's 14 yards per carry for those of you counting at home. His touchdowns went for 3, 99, 16 and 54 yards and his 99-yarder tied a record held by Hall of Famer Tony Dorsett, which hadn't been matched since it was first set in 1982. The rest of the Titans combined for 15 carries for just 26 yards and Marcus Mariota barely needed to do more than just hand it to Henry. He was a one-man wrecking crew, accounting for all of the Titans TDs. Henry's 47.8 points were the most in fantasy football since way back in week 4, when Mitch Trubisky threw for 6 TDs. There were 4-40 point performances in the first 4 weeks of the season, and then not another until 10 weeks later. Heck, even Amari Cooper's incredible (and personally heartbreaking) 39.70 point performance is the most points in the last 10 weeks, aside from Henry's game Thursday night.

368 Passes without an INT

Aaron Rodgers has just 1 INT on the season, which isn't really a good look for those people blaming Rodgers for the decline of the Packers. Rodgers is just fine, thank you - throwing an INT on just 0.2% of his pass attempts. This was highlighted Sunday when Rodgers threw a TD to Randall Cobb in the 3rd quarter and broke Tom Brady's streak of consecutive passes without an interception. Rodgers went on to finish the game cleanly, and now the streak sits at 368 consecutive passes since his last INT. Rodgers' last pick came in week 4 when the Packers shut out the Bills. I'd like to think he threw a sympathy pick for Josh Allen, just to help the rookie feel like he belongs. Most importantly, the Packers got a win with their new interim coach, Joe Philbin - who to me is the boring version of Hue Jackson. The Packers ran the ball a whole 25 times on Sunday, which were the most since they beat Miami. What a coincidence, that's the last time they won a game too.

210 Receiving Yards

George Kittle had 210 receiving yards and a TD on Sunday, and completed a fantasy football trifecta on Sunday. The highest scoring WR, RB and TE all beat out the highest scoring QB. Kittle's day could have been much better, considering he was only targeted once in the second half. The 49ers were leading, and did win, but not without sweating a little. Kittle was also only 5 yards away from breaking the record for TE receiving yards in a game - a record held by Shannon Sharpe of the Broncos - Kittle's opponent that very day! It would have been a great time, but still, Kittle probably led a lot of fantasy teams to victory with the third highest point total of the week, a cool 27.00. Also in this game, rookie Bradley Chubb got his 12th sack of the year, which breaks his teammate Von Miller's team record of 11.5, set back in 2011. Of course, Miller is probably fine with it - he still has more than Chubb this year with 13.5.

101 Rush Yards

Since returning from injury, Josh Allen has been unleashed as a rushing QB, and the results are amazing. In the last 3 weeks, Josh Allen has 335 rushing yards, and he would have 3 consecutive 100-yard games if he didn't take a knee at the end of the game week 12, when he finished with 99 yards. This is just one yard less than Lamar Jackson's total across four games since he took over as starter. Allen is averaging 10.8 yards per carry during this stretch and is has 25.8 fantasy points per game over the last three weeks. Both Jackson and Allen are showing tremendous production as soon as they get dropped into their offenses' starting role. Being a rushing QB just provides a great instant advantage and jolt to your team. It's a shame that there's no great rushing QBs out there that a team once in the playoff hunt could have turned to once they had not one, but two QBs break their leg. Total shame. One with a much better TD:INT ratio than Mark Sanchez would be real nice.

582 Total Passing TDs

I would be remiss if I didn't give props to Tom Brady, who broke Peyton Manning's combined regular season & playoff passing TD mark on Sunday. Brady now has 582 total TDs, 511 regular season, 71 playoffs. By comparison, Manning has 539 & 40 - I'm sure that Tom is fine with having made up the difference during the playoffs. Brady did have to break the record on a bittersweet day, one where the end of both the first and second half went quite wrong for the Patriots. At the end of the first half, Brady took a sack with no timeouts left, thus blowing his team's chance for a FG as time expired. That's an uncharacteristic mistake, but at least Brady doesn't get blame for the second half. Kenyan Drake wound up scoring on a 69 yard double lateral play. That's the longest play to end an NFL game in the Super Bowl era and definitely swung some fantasy games and wrecked some parlays. Brady now has 10 losses in Miami, and it's probably the only place where he actually has a losing record.

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.

29.24 Fantasy Points

Once again, Derrick Henry led all RBs in fantasy points - this time it was a much more reasonable point total. Henry has a whopping 408 yards and 6 TDs over the last two weeks. If you started him these last two weeks, then you're probably looking at a championship matchup next week. Those numbers also account for basically half of his entire production in the 2018 season, so it's no surprise if he was riding your bench last week and you didn't want to chase points this week. Either way, it's been an impressive two weeks for Henry, and perhaps he's starting to live up to the potential he was touted to have coming out of college. This week, el "Tractorcito" will be taking on the Redskins, whom have fallen to the middle of the pack in rush defense after starting strong. Might as well fire up Henry and ride this hot streak while you still can.

142 Rush Yards

Steelers backup RB Jaylen Samuels put up a total of 172 yards from scrimmage in a tough win against the Patriots, a team that the Steelers haven't beaten since 2011. His 142 rush yards were the first time that the Steelers had a player cross the 100 rushing yard threshold since week 9 in Baltimore. Samuels' performance once again shows that it's the offensive line of the Steelers that is the real MVP here. It was the difference in a game that featured two perennial giants that have seen better days. Adding to the fun was Samuels' eligibility as a TE in Yahoo leagues. He was by far the highest scoring TE of the week, and only one of two players to hit double digits. The other player was Garrett Celek, owned in 0% of leagues. Now, the Patriots are in line to have to play during the wild-card weekend for the first time since 2009. Finally, someone else is getting a bye in the AFC.

4 of the top 8 TEs Owned in 0% of Leagues

OK, it's getting ridiculous at the TE position this year. Not only is it hard to get any kind of consistency at the TE position (the TE10 scored just 5.4 points), there are guys every week doing all the scoring instead of the ones in starting fantasy lineups. Week 15 saw Garrett Celek, Jeremy Sprinkle, Darren Waller and Lee Smith all wind up in the top 8 scoring TEs this week. All of those guys are basically rounding errors to us, as they're all owned in 0% of leagues. To look at this from another angle, all 6 TEs owned in 90% of leagues or more (we're throwing Jaylen Samuels out of this) scored a combined 18.6 points, good for a 3.1 point average. Might as well throw out the TE slot and just make it another flex position in order to take a bit of the sadness out of fantasy football.

4 of the top 10 WRs Owned in 51% of Leagues or Less

OK, it's not quite as ridiculous at the WR position, but it's not exactly full of guys you expected to be putting up big games. Starting off, you've got Mike Williams (51% owned) who scored 3 TDs and a 2 pointer for the win, led the week with 29.5 fantasy points. Then you've got Robert Foster (14%), Robby Anderson (27%) and Chris Hogan (28%) all scoring a touchdown and finishing in the top 10 WRs. Whatever happened to standards? You also had Adam Thielen, Tyreek Hill and Keenan Allen combine for a whopping 6 points - all of those guys are owned in 100% of Yahoo leagues. We've said it for a while now at drinkfive, but WR performances really get inconsistent when you near the end of the season, so here's hoping you turned some of those early stars into RBs at some point this season.

8 of the top 8 RBs Owned and Started Everywhere!

Now here's a position with some consistency, and let me elaborate. These top 8 guys are all owned in at least 88% of leagues, with the exception of Damien Williams (67%), who is being used in leagues that are paying attention, at least. Weather is a factor somewhere almost every weekend in the NFL, and bad or cold weather definitely favors the run game over the passing game, but there's something else to this trend of RBs being better than WRs this time of year. Later in the season, you wind up with teams that are able to improve their offensive line, since the only true way to practice a run game is to play real games. This is how you wind up with 8 players scoring at least 20 points at one position, and it being at least mildly predictable. Rounding out the top 10, honorable mentions go to Kalen Ballage (nice 75-yard TD) and Wendell Smallwood, both owned in 14% or fewer Yahoo leagues.

Denver Broncos

What’s changed since last year? Let’s start with Joe Flacco as the starting QB of the Broncos, that’ll be interesting. And ringmaster John Elway rolled the dice on another young QB in Drew Lock, selected #42 overall in the rookie draft. They recently picked up the former Lion Theo Riddick, though he has a fractured shoulder to work through (6-8 weeks), but the biggest offensive boon from a fantasy standpoint may come from rookie TE Noah Fant (TE20), who has been compared to a Jimmy Graham / Aaron Hernandez / Eric Ebron type of receiving Tight End.

Who is the breakout/3^rd year WR on the team? Broncos’ receivers beyond Emmanuel Sanders (WR45) are a bit of a jumble right now (he’s the only WR on the roster that has had a 45-catch season in the NFL), but signs point to 2^nd year Courtland Sutton (WR38, drafted round 2, 2018) breaking out as he transitions to the #1 WR on the Broncos. 704 yards and 4 TDs on 42 receptions last year could lead to bigger and better, especially since he was pushed in as a rookie to fill the shoes of Demariyus Thomas after Thomas was traded to the Texans in late October.

Who is a sleeper you can draft? Although his ADP is still very low, I’m hearing whispers from Denver beat reporters that Royce Freeman (10^th round ADP, RB39) will have an increased workload in 2019 – splitting time or even taking most of Phillip Lindsay’s (5^th round ADP, RB22) short-yardage and goal-line touches. This is not to say that Lindsay won’t have a good season – just that he’s likely being overvalued whereas Freeman should outperform his ADP.

What stud can you draft without hesitation? Phillip Lindsay is currently the highest drafted Bronco with an ADP of 42 overall, but I would not consider him a stud – therefore Denver is currently bereft of any surefire game-winning players that you could draft with near 100% certainty in my mind.

Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? One player that may go undrafted in some leagues but could also fit the ‘sleeper’ tag and will be picked up on the waiver wire at some point during the season (early on, probably) is Daesean Hamilton (20^th round ADP, WR66). Hamilton ended the year averaging 9.5 targets over his last 4 games and will be the primary slot receiver for the Broncos. He could easily eclipse Courtland Sutton (and did last year as Sutton did not take off strong from the starting line), but will never be a #1 receiver (comps to Steve Johnson of the Bills who had several seasons of around 80 receptions for 1000+ yards).

Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? Noah Fant is more than likely the only rookie this year that will have a fantasy impact. Currently being drafted as the 20^th TE off the board, he will score some TDs and be a waiver wire fill-in at the very least. QB Drew Lock is not likely to play this season unless there is an injury to Joe Flacco, but that’s certainly a possibility, and round 6 WR flier Juwann Winfree is a developmental prospect who could be good down the road but doesn’t profile as impactful this season.

Kansas City Chiefs

What’s changed since last year? The Chiefs picked up WR Mecole Hardman (4.33-second 40-yard dash, yipes! 18^th round ADP, WR61) in round 2, and RB Darwin Thompson (19^th round ADP, RB60) in round 6 this year’s NFL draft. They signed free agent and former Jaguar Carlos Hyde (12^th round ADP, RB44), and they were able to keep Tyreek Hill (ADP 17, WR6) out of jail.

Who is the breakout/3^rd year WR on the team? I would say Sammy Watkins (9^th round ADP, WR34) but he already broke out with over 1,000 yards and 9 TDs in 2015. 4^th year WR Demarcus Robinson (ADP 264, WR91) is a possible breakout candidate after the departure of Chris Conley (and previously Albert Wilson). Robinson will be going into a contract year and if Watkins can’t stay healthy again, Robinson should slot right in as the 3^rd option in the passing game, behind Hill and Kelce. He has reportedly been working with Mahomes on deep-ball plays, so that’s certainly promising.

Who is a sleeper you can draft? If you’re paying attention to the current situation at RB, there is a war waging. Rookie Darwin Thompson could challenge Carlos Hyde for the backup role, or even supplant Williams as the starter in Kansas City if he continues to show issues with his hamstring. Thompson flashed some good talent during the first preseason game and the Chiefs have not been particularly loyal to RBs since Andy Reid took the reins. Reid has already stated that a RBBC approach may be the best for this season, casting a shadow over the whole situation. Thompson is a high-risk, high-reward pick.

What stud can you draft without hesitation? The Chiefs have a player being drafted within the top 15 of every offensive position. In fact, if you take out Damien Williams (ADP 25, RB14), you get 3 guys in Tyreek Hill, Patrick Mahomes, and Travis Kelce that are all arguably top 5. But Mahomes and Kelce both have ADPs of #1 for their respective positions, so they are clearly the answer here. If in a standard draft only starting 1 QB, the most valuable over replacement player (VORP) award goes to Travis Kelce.

Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? There’s not much to work with here, but again I look at Darwin Thompson as a guy that will likely go undrafted unless chosen as a sleeper, and there is a high likelihood that either Damien Williams or Carlos Hyde have some kind of injury that will allow Thompson to climb up the depth chart, at least for a short time. Whoever the top RBs are on KC on any given Sunday, they will both hold fantasy value.

Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? I’ve covered Darwin Thompson – Mecole Hardman was being hyped up as a possible Tyreek Hill replacement/fill-in if Hill was to be disciplined by the NFL for issues off the field in the offseason. Hill was not suspended and Hardman will likely not have a fantasy relevant role in the current offense, barring injury, etc.

Los Angeles Chargers

What’s changed since last year? Tyrod Taylor was added and will serve as a great backup QB, and Tyrell Williams was released and picked up by the Raiders. Antonio Gates is again a free agent, and as long as Hunter Henry is healthy, this could be the first season that the Chargers won’t have Gates on their roster since 2003.

Who is the breakout/3^rd year WR on the team? This one is easy. 3^rd year WR Mike Williams (ADP 61, WR25) had 10 TDs in 2018 on 66 targets (43 receptions for 664 yards), but the departure of Tyrell Williams will open more targets for him in the offense immediately. The fact that the Chargers didn’t go out to get more receivers shows trust in his new role as the solid #2 WR. Williams played all 16 games last year after struggling a little with injuries in his rookie season.

Who is a sleeper you can draft? Melvin Gordon (ADP 23, RB13) is holding out for a larger contract, and has officially requested a trade out of Los Angeles. Scary stuff. If the two sides come to an agreement and all is well, Austin Ekeler (8^th round ADP, RB34) will still have value as one of the better backups with pass-catching ability out of the backfield, but Justin Jackson (17^th round ADP, RB57) is a sleeper candidate that could give you an RB2/3 with the last pick of the draft. The question is, will Gordon’s situation be resolved or not? It’s currently pushing his ADP down further each week.

What stud can you draft without hesitation? The top drafted player on the Chargers is Keenan Allen (ADP 28, WR11), and there is no reason why he shouldn’t finish the season with around 100 receptions, 1200 yards, and 6 TDs, just as he has for the previous two seasons. He has also not missed a game since 2016. Draft Allen confidently in all formats.

Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? Travis Benjamin (ADP 291, WR99) should be able to secure the #3 WR spot behind Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, and in an offense where Phillip Rivers has thrown for more than 4,000 yards 6 years in a row, Benjamin could absolutely be a waiver wire fill-in as a WR4/5 in some weeks this season.

Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? The Chargers drafted QB Easton Stick in round 5 as a developmental pick and possible successor to Phillip Rivers, but he’s not fantasy relevant at this point. No other offensive picks to mention this year.

Oakland Raiders

What’s changed since last year? There’s been quite a few changes in Oakland – perhaps they’re getting ready for the big change to Las Vegas, but I digress. The big move for the Raiders was to acquire Antonio Brown from the Steelers for a 3^rd and 5^th round pick. At the time, it seemed like a steal. Now it seems like the Steelers might have the last laugh. They also signed Tyrell Williams, formerly of the Chargers. Derek Carr’s favorite target last season, Jared Cook, is no longer on the team – but I think the new toys at WR should go a long way in consoling him. Finally, the Raiders used one of their three first round picks on a RB, Josh Jacobs from Alabama.

Who is the breakout/3^rd year WR on the team? The best breakout contender on the Raiders is JJ Nelson. This doesn’t mean that we’ve forgotten Tyrell Williams, it’s just that he basically already broke out in 2016 with over 1000 yards. But back to Nelson – he’s a burner who was drafted to the Cardinals back when Bruce Arians was the coach. He fits systems where you can go deep and take shots down the field. That’s not quite what the Raiders have been in the past, but with the other additions at WR, it’s certainly the direction that the team is heading this year.

Who is a sleeper you can draft? Currently, Hunter Renfrow (ADP 375, WR113) is not being drafted, but could find his way into a big role this season. As long as he’s not singing, he has looked pretty good on Hard Knocks and seems to be incorporated into the offense already. It helps that basically every WR is new to the team this year. Renfrow is listed on the depth chart as the starting slot receiver, so expect him to see some looks early, especially since Carr likes to throw it over the middle.

What stud can you draft without hesitation? Based on the advice of our resident Raiders expert, Tad Bukowski, he has stated firmly and unequivocally that Antonio Brown is still the stud WR that we all remember from years past. He’s currently sitting at ADP 22 (WR11) which is his cheapest draft cost since he was a rookie. Of course, that’s due to his new surroundings, but hey, AB is AB and it’s hard to argue against his six straight seasons with over 100 catches. He’s scored 67 touchdowns during that time as well.

Who could be a waiver pickup during the season? Two guys that you can check out – Hunter Renfrow mentioned above) and Darren Waller, who was signed off the Ravens practice squad. Waller is currently the starting TE on the depth chart and has an ADP of 322 (TE27), so he’s likely to be a streaming TE option for the early part of the season. If he can fill the Jared Cook role from last season, then Waller is going to be fantasy relevant for sure. As for Renfrow, he will likely be on the waiver wire unless there’s a Raiders fan in your league – but he isn’t likely to stay there long.

Who are the rookies to know on this team? Will any of them be relevant this year? The two main rookies on this team are Josh Jacobs (ADP 36, RB21) and Hunter Renfrow. The rest of the early picks the Raiders had were for the defense. Jacobs should lead the backfield in carries this season and is currently looked at as an RB2/3 and will likely be in most starting fantasy lineups this season. Renfrow has a ways to go to be fantasy relevant this season, but he is Tad’s pick on the Raiders to rise the ranks quickly and be a contributor to this offense.