Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

 

 

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.

 

80 Touchdowns

 

With 10 TD throws in his first two games of the season, Patrick Mahomes is now on pace to throw a cool 80 touchdowns on the year. Give him the MVP right now, because he's going to beat Peyton's record by 25. On a serious note, he's going to need to keep this pace up if his defense keeps playing like...well, like crap. The Chiefs D have given up 65 points in two weeks, and sure, those opponents were playing catch-up, but giving up over 1000 yards is alarming to say the least. Nevertheless, the Chiefs are 2-0 behind the strength of a historic start. Mahomes joins only Drew Bledsoe with at least 4 TD in each of his first 2 games to start the season...and also our next, magic man.

 

4 TD and 400 Passing Yards

 

The Fitzmagic is real, folks. Ryan Fitzpatrick is now the only QB in league history to throw for 400 yards and 4 TDs in the first two games of the season. Along the way, he's thrown 4 TDs of at least 50 yards or more and even put one in on the ground - all by himself! The Buccaneers season so far has consisted of blowing out their division rivals New Orleans, and then taking down the Super Bowl champs, two events that really mean that Jameis Winston will not be returning to the starting lineup in Week 4. The Bucs are one of several 2-0 teams that are a surprise, like Miami and Cincy. Unlike those two teams, the Bucs look like they could actually be the best team in their division. Finally, congrats to DeSean Jackson, who tied Jerry Rice for the most 60+ yard TDs, notching his 23rd against his old team on a 75-yard catch and run on the first offensive snap of the game.

 

28 Receptions in Two Games

 

If you own Michael Thomas in a PPR league, you're definitely happy with his two straight 30+ point performances. His 28 catches in two games are 10 more than the next closest players - a 3-way tie between Antonio Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Adam Thielen. Thomas has been targeted 30 times and he is catching everything that comes his way. He's basically the entire receiving core of the team. Aside from Alvin Kamara's 15 catches, Thomas has more receptions than the rest of the team combined (21). He's a cool 20 points ahead of the next closest WR, and is second overall in PPR fantasy points, only behind the afore mentioned Fitzmagic. He's on pace for well over 200 catches, smashing the record of 143 by Marvin Harrison. This is, of course, an absurd (but fun) extrapolation.

 

8.4 Yards per Carry

 

This year's early season rushing leader is not one that many people predicted. Matt Breida has 184 yards on only 22 carries. His usage is mostly thanks to the absence of Jerick McKinnon, but he's making the most of it. The 49ers have given him 11 carries in each game, and I expect that number to go up. They should have given him more carries in the 4th quarter to help ice the game away, so I expect his production to continue improving. His next three games are against the Chiefs, Chargers and Cardinals - all teams that have a very porous defense. Breida is only owned in 61% of Yahoo leagues, so while not a hidden gem by any means, he is a guy who needs to be in starting lineups in most, if not all leagues.

 

1 out of 10 Tight Ends

 

This season, the top 10 TEs have been the model of inconsistency. Only one of the top 10, Eric Ebron, has more than 6 points in both games this season. Most guys have one big game and one dud, not great, but you'll take it. What makes Ebron's consistency surprising is that he went into the season and wasn't considered the top TE on his own team - that belonged to Jack Doyle. Doyle has been targetted more than Ebron, but hasn't been productive. Meanwhile, Ebron has managed to find the end zone in each game and may become a favorite target of Andrew Luck, who had a good showing in Washington on Sunday. Only Will Dissly has a chance to save some face for his positional group, when he suits up tonight in Chicago.

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! It’s been an explosive first 2 weeks of the NFL season, but for the rookies it’s been a pretty disappointing start. Saquon Barkley has lived up to his considerable hype despite the Giants’ offensive line woes, but beyond him only Phillip Lindsay, Will Dissly, and Sam Darnold have shown consistent production so far. Two of those players are guys you probably hadn’t heard of before week 1, and the another one is a QB2 at best for fantasy purposes, which isn’t that useful for most leagues. There have been flashes from some of the more heralded rookies. Dante Pettis, DJ Moore, and Calvin Ridley have all made big plays, but need more consistent opportunities. Week 3 is yet another week where there aren’t many rookies I trust to start. There will come a point where more of them are productive, but in the meantime I’ll keep trying to identify some good guys to stash or take a shot on in DFS. Let’s dig into what to expect for week 3…

 

Rookies to Start:

 

RB Saquon Barkley, NYG (Wk. 3: @Hou.): Barkley is still an every week starter despite poor o-line play and substandard overall offensive play. He hasn’t been particularly efficient in the run game, but his usage in the passing game is going to make him a PPR star quickly. The Texans haven’t proven to be a matchup to avoid yet, and their pass rush with JJ Watt and Jadaveon Clowney should actually be a boost to Barkley’s upside this week catching dump off passes.

 

Borderline Rookies:

 

RB Phillip Lindsay, DEN (Wk. 3: @Bal.): Lindsay has started his career with 2 consecutive games with 100+ scrimmage yards. He’ll be hard pressed to make it 3 against a formidable Ravens’ defense that has allowed the 2^nd fewest RB points in the league so far, but the success he’s had so far at least has him in the conversation for a flex spot this week in spite of the matchup.

 

RB Royce Freeman, DEN (Wk. 3: @Bal.): His goal line usage gives him value, but his lack of consistent playing time has turned him into a TD-dependent flex option until things change. Freeman was out-snapped by both Devontae Booker and Lindsay last week. Some of that was due to a negative game script, but it’s still a little troubling.

 

WR Antonio Callaway, CLE (Wk. 3: vs. NYJ): Jarvis Landry is questionable and on a short week this week and Josh Gordon has been shipped off to New England. That leaves Callaway as potentially the number 1 receiver this week in Cleveland. He already saw his playing time jump from 17% of the snaps to 81% with Gordon out in week 2. There’s no reason to think that will drop this week. He’s explosive with the ball in his hands, and should be an intriguing flex option this week in deeper leagues. He’s looking at a huge role and reasonable matchup. Bump him up a little if Landry isn’t able to play.

 

TE Will Dissly, SEA (Wk. 3: vs. Dal.): Tight end has been a bit of a wasteland after a few elite options so far this season. Injuries to Delanie Walker and Greg Olsen haven’t helped. One surprising bright spot has been Dissly. He had a huge performance in week 1, and seemed to be following it with a pedestrian performance in week 2 until a late TD catch. Garbage time points still count, and he’ll remain the Seahawks’ leading TE. The Cowboys have allowed the 8^th-most PPR points to tight ends in the league in the first 2 weeks, so the matchup is a decent one. There are worse streamers out there than Dissly for this week.

 

Rookies to Sit:

 

QB Sam Darnold, NYJ (Wk. 3: @Cle.): The Browns’ defense has been pretty solid against 2 pretty solid offenses. Darnold has been better than expected through his first 2 starts, but he’ll be a low-end QB2 this week at best.

 

QB Josh Allen, BUF (Wk. 3: @Min.): Allen was less than stellar in his first pro start, and this week he gets to face another quality defense on the road with his best offensive weapon either out or limited (Shady McCoy). The Vikings have limited two quality QBs, Aaron Rodgers and Jimmy Garoppolo, to an average of 12.5 fantasy points apiece. Allen is much worse than that duo, with much worse talent around him.

 

RB Kerryon Johnson, DET (Wk. 3: vs. NE): The Lions running game woes have continued into this season despite investing offseason resources in Kerryon and LeGarrette Blount. Kerryon has been seeing a respectable number of touches, but the production just hasn’t been there. He needs to start scoring touchdowns to really take off, but that will be tough on this team. Detroit has run 18 plays in the red zone this season. 17 of them were passes. The Lions’ defensive woes are real, and the Patriots will be playing angry after their letdown last weekend. I expect Detroit to be playing from behind again and abandoning the run early. It’s not a great spot to use Johnson.

 

RB Nick Chubb, CLE (Wk. 3: vs. NYJ): Carlos Hyde had an inefficient performance in week 2 despite finding the end zone. He tallied just 43 yards on 16 carries. With a few more performances like that, Chubb’s role is sure to grow, but I don’t see a big shift in the backfield split this week. It also doesn’t help that the Jets are an uninviting matchup for backs. I’d avoid starting Chubb this week.

 

RBs Jordan Wilkins & Nyheim Hines, IND (Wk. 3: @Phi.): The backfield roles are very up in the air after the return of Marlon Mack. Everyone played about the same amount in week 2, and I’d expect Mack to start getting more work going forward. Hines will still get some opportunities in the passing game, and Wilkins will probably still handle some carries this week, but you can’t count on enough usage for either one of them to start them with any confidence. We’ll need to see how things trend with all 3 backs healthy for another week or 2.

 

RB Ito Smith, ATL (Wk. 3: vs. NO): Ito may be worth a stash in deeper leagues, but this is a bad week to roll the dice on him in DFS tournaments. The Saints have allowed just 4 running back receptions and the 3^rd-fewest RB points total through 2 weeks. Smith will get some usage behind Tevin Coleman as long as Freeman is out, but I’m not too optimistic for him in week 3.

 

RB Mark Walton, CIN (Wk. 3: @Car.): Walton is a player to keep an eye on this week with Joe Mixon sidelined for a bit, but I’m not ready to buy into him as a stash just yet. He should dress this week after being a healthy scratch in each of the first two weeks, but Gio Bernard saw the vast majority of the work in games Mixon missed last year, and I’d expect the same this year until the team shows me different. They did also sign Thomas Rawls this week, but I wouldn’t expect him to be much of a factor.

 

WR Courtland Sutton, DEN (Wk. 3: @Bal.): Sutton is trending in the right direction in terms of how many snaps he’s playing, but his production has been inconsistent. He’s going to have some weeks where his point totals spike, but as long as Demaryius and Manny Sanders are around he’s going to stay inconsistent. The matchup this week is against the formidable Ravens defense, so I wouldn’t bank on this being one of those spike weeks for Sutton.

 

WR Christian Kirk, ARI (Wk. 3: vs. Chi.): Kirk was used quite a bit more in week 2 than he was in week 1 (5 targets after just 2 in week 1), but it’s hard to even consider using him until the Cardinals’ offense starts playing better. I don’t see that happening until Josh Rosen is under center. If the offense continues to sputter, that could happen sooner than expected.

 

WR Anthony Miller, CHI (Wk. 3: @Ari.): Miller certainly has shown some upside in the first 2 weeks, but to really make good on his promise he’s going to have to pass Taylor Gabriel on the depth chart, and he’s going to need some better play from Mitch Trubisky. As for week 3, the Bears are favored by nearly a touchdown and should lean on Jordan Howard’s running a bit more than they have so far. The passing volume won’t be high enough to take a chance on Miller.

 

Michael Gallup, DAL (Wk. 3: @Sea.): Gallup is dealing with low snap and target counts, and an offense that leans on the rushing attack and slowing down the pace of the game. Until the passing attack starts to play at a higher level and Gallup starts playing more, he needs to be avoided in fantasy lineups.

 

TE Mike Gesicki, MIA (Wk. 3: vs. Oak.): He’s seen just 2 targets in the first 2 weeks, and the Raiders have allowed the 4^th-fewest TE points in the league through 2 weeks.

 

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes and Cheap DFS Options:

 

RB Sony Michel, NE (Wk. 3: @Det.): The Lions have allowed over 170 rushing yards in each of the first 2 weeks. The usage split between Michel and Rex Burkhead is still a bit of a question mark going forward, but I like Michel’s chances of being heavily involved. The matchup is a great one, and he’ll be a sneaky DFS tournament play this week as long as Burkhead doesn’t get workhorse carries.

 

RB Rashaad Penny, SEA (Wk. 3: vs. Dal.): Coach Pete Carroll stated that Chris Carson remains the starter after not playing him at all in the 4^th quarter on Monday night, but it looks like the window is opening for Penny to take on a bigger role. Carroll also expressed a desire to run the ball more this week, so there could be more carries to go around for everyone. Penny is also a better receiver than Carson, and Dallas has allowed a 45-yard receiver in each of the first 2 weeks. There’s a chance for Penny to make a nice impact in the passing game as well. I wouldn’t trust him in season-long leagues, but there is some DFS tournament upside here.

 

WR Calvin Ridley, ATL (Wk. 3: vs. NO): Ridley got much more involved in week 2, seeing 3 more targets than Mohammed Sanu and scoring his first career TD. His increased usage also coincided with the Falcons finally seeming to exorcise some of their red zone demons. New Orleans has allowed the most receiving yards and TDs to wide receivers in the league through 2 weeks. It’s a great week to consider Ridley in DFS tournaments, or to take a shot on him as a flex in deeper leagues.

 

WR Dante Pettis, SF (Wk. 3: @KC): Pettis’s status really depends on whether or not Marquise Goodwin is able to play this week. The matchup is a juicy one. The Chiefs have allowed the 3^rd-most WR points in the league so far, and Pettis will play major snaps if Goodwin sits again. He’ll be a dart throw in DFS if Goodwin plays, but I’d expect 6+ targets if Marquise is out again. Against this defense, that kind of work gives him WR3 upside.

 

WR James Washington, PIT (Wk. 3: @TB): Washington did score his first TD last week, but caught just 1-of-5 targets for 14 yards in the process. That doesn’t sound like a promising performance, but he played 66-of-82 snaps in what is typically one of the more prolific passing offenses in the league. If that snap count repeats itself this week, there’s a ton of upside in a solid matchup against the Bucs. Tampa has allowed the 7^th-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers so far. Given his increased role, Washington is a decent low-cost option in DFS tournaments.

 

WR DJ Moore, CAR (Wk. 3: vs. Cin.): Moore is shaping up to be a good buy-low candidate in dynasty leagues and deeper redraft leagues. He’s only played 17 snaps in each of the first two weeks, but head coach Ron Rivera has been saying that they need to use him more moving forward. He managed to post a 51-yard TD catch last week. I wouldn’t take a chance on him this week, but I would consider putting an offer into the Moore owner in your league to see if you can get him at a discount.

 

TE Mark Andrews, BAL (Wk. 3: vs. Den.): The Ravens’ tight end split has been a bit frustrating so far. They’ve pretty much split the targets evenly between Nick Boyle, Maxx Williams and Andrews, but this matchup is a good one for the position. Denver has been notorious for being stingy to wide receivers and vulnerable to tight ends. The Broncos allowed the 4^th-most TE points in 2017, and have coughed up the 6^th-most so far this year including a big game from Will Dissly. Andrews already found the end zone once last week and has 3 catches in each game so far. He’s a TD dart throw for DFS tournaments.

 

That’s all I’ve got for this week, hopefully it helps you with some tougher lineup decisions this week. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the rest of the week to make sure you aren’t starting any players who end up sitting. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

You will not have any easier pick all year than when you pick the Minnesota Vikings as 16.5 point favorites this week home against the winless Buffalo Bills. I'll keep this part short and sweat. The Bills are very, very bad, and their best player, LeSean McCoy, has injured ribs. I will be surprised if they manage to score a touchdown against a tough Vikings defense.

 

Just in case you have already taken the Vikings, my next suggestion would be the New England Patriots, 6.5 point favorites on the road against the Detroit Lions. The Patriots rarely lose consecutive games and Bill Belichick relishes at the opportunity to crush former assistants. I am staying away from this one only because the Vikings have shown me more at this point of the season and are facing a rookie QB in Josh Allen rather than former pro bowler Matthew Stafford. I am planning on holding on to the Patriots until at least midway through the season when they really get rolling.

 

Cheers!

Drink Five!

 

 

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are standard Yahoo scoring, unless otherwise noted.

 

 

2 Records to Start the Season

 

Last week, we checked in on Patrick Mahomes and Michael Thomas's blistering starts. This week, they both continued their record making/breaking pace. Mahomes now has 13 TD to start the season, the most by anyone ever. He's averaging over 30 points per game, leading all non-magical quarterbacks. He'll get Denver in week 4, his toughest match so far, but certainly one where he can keep up his pace. Meanwhile, Thomas added another 10 receptions to his season total, bringing it to 38. All of this on just 40 targets - he's almost having a perfect season. He's still on pace for over 200 receptions, a ridiculous number, but I'm just a sucker for ridiculous early season extrapolation.

 

565 Field Goals Made

 

Kickers rarely make this column, but I'm generally OK with making an exception for future hall-of-famers. Adam Vinatieri went 3 for 3 in Philly on Sunday to tie Morten Anderson's all time record of 565 field goals made. Congrats to Adam, for completing this in just your 23rd season. Yea, Adam was kicking field goals way back during Clinton's first term in office. Anderson played even longer - he was drafted before I was born, and kicked his last FG after my 26th birthday. Vinatieri will probably pass Anderson's record for most points, as he's only 33 behind him now. Will a kicker make this column twice in one year?

 

Over 40 Fantasy Points

 

Drew Brees and Matt Ryan have now faced off something like 20 times, and Sunday might have been the highest scoring affair of all of them. Both QBs managed to top 40 fantasy points in a game, combined for 770 passing yards and 10 total TDs. The Saints have been coming from behind in every game this year, and it's resulted in some huge fantasy production. Not only the afore mentioned Brees and Michael Thomas, but Alvin Kamara is living up to his draft stock and has the 2nd most points among RBs. For the Falcons, this is Matt Ryan's best game since 2016, and the first time that he's thrown 5 passing TDs in one game. Three of those went to Falcons rookie Calvin Ridley, who put up a 7 for 146 line and will be the waiver wire darling of the week. He was only 22% owned in Yahoo leagues going into Sunday's games, so look for him in your league this week.

 

5th Most Points in Week 3

 

One of the best performances of the week belongs to a guy owned in just 3% of Yahoo leagues. He's responsible for the biggest upset of the season so far, and the destroyer of survivor pools. That's right, it's Josh Allen, Buffalo's rookie QB. Allen was an efficient 15 of 22 for 196 yards, one TD and no picks, while running in two on his own. I'm not saying you go out and pick him up, but it was enough to beat the Minnesota Vikings, who were favored by 16.5 points. This is now two straight weeks of just 3 points for the Vikings DST, which has to now go face the Rams on a short week. This is probably the time to move on and stream another team. It still remains to be seen if the Vikings are really this bad, or if they just got caught looking ahead to the next game.

 

3 of the top 10 TEs

 

Using the drinkfive fantasy league as a measuring stick (standard scoring, 10 teams), only 3 of the top 10 TEs this week are even on teams. This week's top 10 TE list is dominated by guys owned in 2% or fewer of Yahoo leagues. Dallas Goedert led the way with a measly 13.3 points, and was only one of three guys to hit double digits. Both OJ Howard and Jesse James have a shot at that tonight, bringing a little stability to a position that has some of the worst production it's seen in years. At this point, I feel that playing a TE is just a dart throw and a hope that he will find the end zone. Streaming a TE this season seems more relevant than ever, and I would definitely go that route if you are not getting the production you want out of the TE slot.