Fantasy Football / NFL
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- Written by Tad Bukowski
A just above .500 week last week takes us to the final week of the season!
We’ve had a solid year and I’m sure you’re sad to see it go – just like I am!
But we’re not done just yet! We have one more week to make that final push to win your season long pool. I hope I have helped you out this year! If so, please contact me and I’ll let you know how to send me my cut from your winnings! ;) Just kidding!
Happy Holidays everyone!!
WEEK 17!! HERE WE GO!!!
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
16 – DENVER over Oakland – The Raiders are on the cusp of turning the corner…they’ll just have one more Bronco beat-down to take before another off-season of change. This may be nothing more than a hopeful fan, but my BOLD PREDICTION to end 2014 is that the Raiders will have a .500 or better record in 2015.
15 – MIAMI over New York Jets – Miami had one of the more surprising seasons in the league this year and should have no problem ending it with an exclamation point and send Rex Ryan to the unemployment line.
14 – SEATTLE over St. Louis – No team has risen to the top faster than the defending champs. After a start that had some, including me, questioning their playoff chances, they should be able to lock up home field advantage with a win this week.
13 – NEW ENGLAND over Buffalo – In the first few weeks of the season I predicted that the Bills would make the playoffs and the Patriots dynasty was done…well this game should pretty much sum up how wrong I was on both fronts.
12 – Indianapolis over TENNESSEE – The Colts need to get things back in order before the playoffs start. Look for them to take out some aggression on the lowly Titans.
11 – BALTIMORE over Cleveland – The Ravens still have a chance to make the playoffs this year and should be able to do their part and beat the Johnny Football-less Browns.
10 – New Orleans over TAMPA BAY – Don’t worry Bucs’ fans! After that pesky little Super Bowl thing is over, YOU will be the NFL’s #1! … in the draft. You are now on the clock.
9 – MINNESOTA over Chicago – Teddy Bridgewater has shown that he could be a top quarterback in this league sooner rather than later. This week he will learn about how NOT to be an NFL quarterback as Jay Cutler is back under center for the Bears.
8 – GREEN BAY over Detroit – The NFC North comes down to this. A first round bye and a home playoff game is likely on the line. There aren’t too many teams that I have more faith in when playing at home than the Packers right now.
7 – HOUSTON over Jacksonville – Houston is still fighting for their playoff lives. They need help that I don’t think they’ll get but they still should be able to do their part.
6 – PITTSBURGH over Cincinnati – The best division in football this year comes down to week 17 where the Steelers, who have been one of the hottest teams to end the year, should be able to take care of a Bengals team that still seems to have some problems winning a big game.
5 – Dallas over WASHINGTON – The Cowboys should be able to put the 2014 Redskins out of their misery and usher them to the off-season quickly and quietly.
4 – ATLANTA over Carolina – The NFC South champion and 7-win play-off team will be decided here…that’s really all the effort this game deserves.
3 – KANSAS CITY over San Diego – The Chargers hold their play-off destiny in their hands. Unfortunately that destiny is in Arrowhead right now – not a place you want to HAVE to win a game.
2 – NEW YORK GIANTS over Philadelphia – The Eagles were prime to make a run to the Super Bowl, they just ran out of gas a few weeks too soon.
1 – SAN FRANCISCO over Arizona – Congrats Jim! Now wave good-bye – we’ll see you next year in Ann Arbor.
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- Written by Vince Foss
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- Written by Tad Bukowski
13 out of 16 games correct last week is a great way to start the final stretch of the confidence pool season. Let’s keep the momentum going!
Week 16! HERE WE GO!!!
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
16 – New England over NEW YORK JETS – In a week where road favorites dominate, none can give you more confidence than the Pats taking care of their lowly rivals.
15 – MIAMI over Minnesota – The Vikings, namely Teddy Bridgewater, are starting to show signs of life. But the Dolphins are still fighting for their playoff lives and won’t let this win get by them.
14 – Green Bay over TAMPA BAY – Aaron Rodgers and the Packers have a lot of frustrations to take out on the Bucs this week if they want to prove they are still the team to beat.
13 – ST. LOUIS over New York Giants – The Rams have shown signs of life, which is a lot more than can be said for the Giants this year.
12 – Philadelphia over WASHINGTON – RGIII is back under center…which makes it easy to put the Eagles on a line this high on the road.
11 – CAROLINA over Cleveland – Carolina has been a disappointment this year. Lucky for them the Browns decided to end all playoff hopes when they decided to go with Johnny Manziel.
10 – PITTSBURGH over Kansas City – The Steelers are quietly becoming a team to keep an eye on in the AFC. If they can contain Jamaal Charles they should cruise in this one.
9 – NEW ORLEANS over Atlanta – A big divisional game against two bad teams. It’s in New Orleans so it’s pretty easy to pick the Saints here.
8 – DALLAS over Indianapolis – Dallas showed that they are still a contender with a big win in Philly last week. That should give them the needed momentum in this big inter-conference game.
7 – JACKSONVILLE over Tennessee – The Jags have proven to be the lesser of two evils here. Playing at home with about 3,600 screaming fans behind them should help.
6 – Detroit over CHICAGO – I immediately bumped this game up a few lines with the Bears’ quarterback change news. Hopefully for them it’s the start of the process of getting Jay Cutler out of Halas Hall. This week's BOLD PREDICTION is that Jay Cutler will NOT be the quarterback of the Chicago Bears week 1 next season.
5 – ARIZONA over Seattle – The Seahawks have started to climb back into the playoff picture the last few weeks. However the Cardinals have been able to maintain their stance on the NFC lead even with injury issues.
4 – Buffalo over OAKLAND – This could be closer than some think, but the Bills should still be able to pull out the road win.
3 – Baltimore over HOUSTON –Houston is still fighting with their slim chances left but the Ravens are just playing too good now.
2 – San Diego over SAN FRANCISCO – The Chargers head up the coast line and should be able to aid in Jim Harbaugh’s eventual relocation to Oakland…or Chicago…or Ann Arbor…or…
1 – CINCINNATI over Denver – I think the Bengals can pull this out, but their inability to perform on the big stage gives me a lot of trepidation.
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- Written by Shawn Foss
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! It’s fantasy championship week in most leagues. Everything is at stake. If the last two weeks have taught us anything, it’s that crazy things happen in the fantasy playoffs. How else do you explain the recent performances of Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Demaryius Thomas, Calvin Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Jordy Nelson and Josh Gordon? The list goes on and on. There were several on the good side as well like Jeremy Hill, Harry Douglas, and Tony Romo, but we always remember the guys who cost us a playoff win before the guys who won one for us. My only advice: Don’t get crazy with your lineup to match the craziness on the field. Let’s take a look at which rookies might help you bring home the trophy:
Rookies to Start:
RB Jeremy Hill, CIN (Wk. 16: vs. Den.): The Bengals finally get it and are giving this kid the rock a ton. He’s been great just about every time he’s been the lead back, clearing 140 rushing yards in 3 of those 5 contests and topping 80 with a score in another. The Broncos are a tough test, allowing just over 12 fantasy points to RBs each week, 4th fewest in the league, but the volume and upside will make Hill a high-end RB2 with a chance for more.
RB Tre Mason, STL (Wk. 16: vs. NYG): Don’t let last Thursday’s 13-for-33 blip scare you. Mason has seen a ton of volume and put up some very respectable numbers since taking over the lead back role, and has only had one plus matchup so far. In that matchup he torched the Raiders for 164 scrimmage yards and 3 TDs. He’s in line for a big day against the Giants’ porous run D, and is probably going to win someone their championship. He’s a strong RB2 play this week.
WR Odell Beckham Jr., NYG (Wk. 16: @StL): If you need me to explain this, Odell’s not on your team. Moving on…
WR Kelvin Benjamin, CAR (Wk. 16: vs. Cle.): Joe Haden is questionable with injury this week, which should make life easier for Kelvin. You know what else makes Kelvin’s life easier? Having Derek Anderson at QB. In the 5 games that Anderson has played (either as starter or in relief of Cam), KB has averaged 6 catches for 90 yards and nearly a TD (0.8) per game, and also about 6 more fantasy points per week than games that DA doesn’t play. Feel comfortable getting him in there. His floor is higher with Anderson at the helm.
WR Mike Evans, TB (Wk. 16: vs. GB): Evans had his worst game last week with just 2 catches for 13 yards, but he did manage to salvage his fantasy day with a TD. Don’t expect 2 down games in a row. The Packers will be eager to bully the Bucs after being a little embarrassed by their play in a loss to the Bills. Tampa should be playing from behind all day, and that means a lot of passes are going to go Evans’s way. He’s still a solid WR2 with a bunch of upside.
WR Jordan Matthews, PHI (Wk. 16: @Was.): Matthews was a shocking no-show on the stat sheet last week against Dallas. It won’t happen again this week. The Redskins are stout up front against the run, but the back end is basically a row of turnstiles. Matthews should be in line for a really nice bounce back game and should be a safe WR3 for both standard and PPR formats.
WR Jarvis Landry, MIA (Wk. 16: vs. Min.): Landry is coming off the best game of his career in terms of yards, and as usual is worth a start as a WR3 in PPR. He’s been remarkably consistent for a rookie, much more so than veteran teammate Mike Wallace. Landry has posted at least 6 catches and 50 yards in each of the last 4 contests, and 4 and 45 in 9 of his last 10. Add in that Xavier Rhodes will likely be matched up with Wallace, and there’s a lot to like here.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Teddy Bridgewater, MIN (Wk. 16: @Mia.): It’s not a good matchup this week for Teddy, but he was a serviceable low-end QB2 against the Lions’ defense on Sunday, putting up over 300 yards and a score while adding 30 yards with his legs. I wouldn’t expect a repeat, but Teddy is the one rookie QB who has steadily gotten better as the year has progressed. He’s at least passable again as a lower-end QB2 this week.
RBs Isaiah Crowell & Terrance West, CLE (Wk. 16: @Car.): Last week was a total let down for the Browns’ entire organization. Johnny Manziel fell flat on his face in his first start, the rest of the offense tanked with him, and they essentially knocked themselves out of the playoff race in the process. The scenario that puts the Browns in the playoffs literally requires a tie between the Chargers and Chiefs in week 17. This week, against a suddenly resurgent Panthers’ defense, the Browns’ offense will go as far as Johnny Football takes it. If he can’t provide a threat with his arm, it’ll be tough for any Browns to run the ball. Johnny’s running ability stresses the defense enough to open some running lanes, but the floor that we saw last week for this offense is scary. Crowell remains the better play of the two RBs, but both make for slightly dicey flex options.
RB Carlos Hyde, SF (Wk. 16: vs. SD): Reports out of San Francisco say it’ll take a miracle for Hyde to play this weekend, but if he does he’ll be on the RB2 radar. Frank Gore appears to be out, so Hyde would start and likely be slated for 15-20 touches against a so-so Chargers’ defense. He wouldn’t be the safest play, but there would certainly be upside.
WR Martavis Bryant, PIT (Wk. 16: vs. KC): Three words: Boom or Bust. You know what he can do, and you know the risk. It’s up to you if you want to roll the dice or not. From a schematic standpoint, the Chiefs’ secondary isn’t as good without Eric Berry. Make of that what you will.
Rookies to Sit:
I’m going to do something a little different this week and point out the most obvious sits quickly, then dive into a couple tougher calls in more detail. For starters, avoid Blake Bortles and Derek Carr. We’ve seen enough of these guys to know a big game isn’t coming this week. Don’t be dumb and play Bishop Sankey. I know he’s playing the Jaguars. So what? We’ve been fooled too many times before. Devonta Freeman is getting a little more work lately, but not enough to be viable. Juwan Thompson showed what a 4-carry stat line should look like last week. His role won’t grow this week. Alfred Blue remains just a handcuff for Arian Foster owners. Davante Adams has topped 15 yards just once in the past 6 games. It’ll be the Jordy and Randall show again this week. John Brown’s quarterback will be Ryan Lindley. Don’t even think about him this week. Paul Richardson has been on the field a lot for Seattle, just not in the box score very much. Also, please avoid all 3 notable rookie tight ends suiting up this week. Jace Amaro, Eric Ebron, and Richard Rodgers all have been far too mediocre in terms of production to be trusted in the biggest week of the year. Now let’s take a closer look at a few other rooks to bench:
QB Johnny Manziel, CLE (Wk. 16: @Car.): I know, this one seems obvious, but I’m sure there are some people tempted to try him again. He does have tantalizing athleticism. That doesn’t mean it’ll translate onto the NFL field.
RB Andre Williams, NYG (Wk. 16: @StL.): Williams looks like a good bet to start the rest of the way for the G-Men, so he’ll get good volume this week, but the Rams’ run defense has been really solid lately. Williams also hasn’t been the most efficient runner in the league, averaging just 3.2 yards per carry. He put up just 44 yards on 18 runs against Washington last week, and I’d expect a similar output this week.
RB Branden Oliver, SD (Wk. 16 @SF): Ryan Mathews looks to miss another game this week, so Oliver should see a lot of work, but I doubt the 49ers have thrown in the towel despite being eliminated from playoff contention last week. I’d be surprised if they surrender 70 yards to Oliver like the Broncos did last week. Oliver got most of that yardage in the passing game, and I think a repeat is unlikely. 70 yards from scrimmage is Oliver’s 3rd highest total of the year.
WR Sammy Watkins, BUF (Wk. 16: @Oak.): I know it’s wild to sit a guy with the type of ability Watkins has with the season on the line, but the production just hasn’t been there. He’s been held under 40 yards in 5 of his last 6 games and even his coaches are worried that he might be hitting the rookie wall. The Raiders’ defense has been surprisingly good against WRs, surrendering the 3rd fewest points to them in the league. There’s upside here, but not enough to offset the risk in my opinion.
WR Marqise Lee, JAX (Wk. 16: vs. Ten.): Although Lee’s poor week 15 showing was more a result of poor QB play than anything he did, he ended the day with his arm in a sling. I’d say that hampers his outlook this week, and it isn’t like Bortles is going to suddenly get more accurate. Lee is a fringe option when things are perfect, and this week they aren’t.
Deep League Sleepers:
RB Charles Sims, TB (Wk. 16: vs. GB): Martin is back in the saddle as starter, but Sims still is the best back the Bucs have in the passing game, and passing is something they’ll be doing a lot of this week. The increased work should bump Sims from obvious bench player to a sneaky PPR flex option in deep leagues.
WR Donte Moncrief, IND (Wk. 16: @Dal.): The future is really bright for Moncrief, but the Colts seem stuck in the past. They continue to trot out inferior football players (T-Rich, Fleener, and the old and injured Reggie Wayne) instead of guys like Boom Herron, Dwayne Allen and Moncrief. I really feel like Moncrief is going to break out again in one of these final two games, but I don’t know which one it’ll be. He’s a fun roll of the dice in deeper leagues this week. It’s possible the Colts lean more his way now that Wayne has set the Colts’ record for career games played. Reggie has battled through a torn triceps lately to set that record.
WR Allen Hurns, JAX (Wk. 16: vs. Ten.): Hurns is coming off a 6-for-70 game last week, and he’s a decent bet for similar production this week with Lee dinged up. Is he going to win you your week? No, but he likely won’t kill you either.
WR Albert Wilson, KC (Wk. 16: @Pit.): Wilson has been coming on strong lately with Donnie Avery sidelined, putting up 122 yards over the past 2 weeks and earning Alex Smith’s trust. Not many WRs can do that. The Steelers allow almost 24 WR fantasy points per week, so you’d think someone in this group of wide outs will take advantage. My money would be on Wilson. He’s an interesting WR3/flex option in really deep leagues.
That’s it for this week. I’ll do a quick column next week in case your championship game is in week 17. As always, good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
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- Written by David Biggs
The end of the road for most fantasy teams is this week's championship game. Listening to the right advice can make or break your team and I'd like to try to help you across the finish line by providing you with a few great plays for Week 16. As always, quite a few guys that may have been helping you throughout the season are probably headed to IR or underperforming at this point in the season. So who do we turn to? Let's find out..
QB:
The drop-off for QB ownership is a steep one. Right around Andy Dalton, QBs are either quite a bit better or quite a bit worse. Actually, let's include Joe Flacco and Mark Sanchez in that.. we can call it the 'QB Triangle'. If one of these guys is your starter (in 1, or 2 QB leagues), you've got serious problems to address. Although I think that Johnny Manziel (37% owned) will have a good performance eventually, he looked sufficiently bad for me to avoid him for the remainder of the season at least. Alex Smith (37% owned) on the other hand, had a great game with 297 yards and 2 TDs against the Raiders. Smith has been a consistent member of the drinkfive waiver wire list and should continue to do well against the Steelers pass defense which is still susceptible to big plays on the outside. Smith has more points this season than Kaepernick or Dalton and almost as many as Newton and Romo. If you need help at the position, don't sleep on him.
WR:
Much like the 'QB' triangle, we have a similar collection of players that should not be owned in Cordarelle Patterson, Denard Robinson and We Welker all hovering around the 50% mark. But can we find some real talent at the position if we dig a little deeper? Well, once more, Charles Johnson (32% owned) had a good game and put up 5 receptions for 72 yards against the great Lions pass defense. Remember that he's a rookie, but with this year's draft class.. why not another standout receiver? Clearly the Vikes' #1 guy at this point, look for a similar performance but with a great chance of a TD against a slipping Dolphins pass defense this week. Harry Douglas (27% owned) is an interesting pickup if he's still available in your league, because he had a great game and Julio Jones may be out again this week. Although Coach Mike Smith says he expects him to suit up - he is not to be trusted. I keep hearing Cecil Shorts (41% owned) and Stedman Bailey (14% owned) but I don't believe it and you shouldn't either. Both guys are too unpredictable this year and on teams that are equally difficult to predict.
RB:
Now that we're comparing what players exist around that 50% mark at each position, let's look at RBs. Got any guesses? Due to dual-eligibility, Denard Robinson is here again of course, but not including Robinson we have Doug Martin, Ben Tate and Terrance West. What a great collection of running backs that is! The decline in ownership is much less steep but we can definitely pull some talent out of the pool here. Carlos Hyde (35% owned) was running very well last week before hurting his back on a play. Looks like he'll play ahead of Gore at this point, though. He is worth a pickup in every league, even if you're not going to start him.. just so your opponent can't start him against you. With Gore likely out with a concussion, Hyde will monopolize the carries if he plays. Kerwynn Williams (18% owned) was an unlikely candidate to perform well last week due to a committee backfield and good Rams' rushing defense, but he still went off for 75 yards on 15 carries and caught 2 passes for 11 yards. Grice looks to be a non-factor and Stepfan Taylor will split the carries but Williams is the better bet for a TD. Bad news? Seattle. And they've been playing well. I like Williams but would stay away from this situation unless you're desperate.
TE:
Yeah I know, you just can't wait.. ok, I'll tell you. The 50%'ers at TE this season are Jordan Cameron, Kyle Rudolph and Charles Clay. Wow, a couple of those guys were definitely taken pretty high up in drafts this preseason. Moving on, Mychal Rivera (26% owned) is still not owned in many leagues this year and presents a good option about 1/2 of the time. Better in PPR leagues because of the volume he gets, Rivera is still a good bit better than the TEs owned less than him. Jermaine Gresham (9% owned) just scored a TD last week and has been getting consistent targets all year. Also, he plays against Denver who has given up quite a few points to opposing TEs. Unfortunately, he was inactive for last week's game against the Browns even though he was warming up on the field. Apparently some kind of toe injury, reports say that Gresham should be starting again against the Broncos in Week 16. I actually like him a lot here if you think he'll be a go.
Defense / Special Teams:
Here I like Carolina (vs. CLE), Miami (vs. MIN), Green Bay (@TB) and Jacksonville (vs. TEN)
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- Written by Jason Evans
At drinkfive, we like to think that trends of at least three games or more are something that should be a reliable indicator of future performance. That’s all fine and good, but how about we actually predict if the trends will continue or not and put our money (or beer in this case) where our mouth is.
Here are the predictions we made on last week’s show:
Matt Ryan: Wk 12 vs CLE – 16.52 pts, Wk 13 vs ARI – 21.84 pts, Wk 14 @ GB – 32.30 pts
Matt Ryan finds himself in a nice position of symmetry. He’s currently the 8th ranked QB in standard Yahoo leagues, and his ADP position was #8 in the preseason. He’s finally playing up to his expected level, but it’s only been a late run that has gotten him there. Ryan started off the season with 3 of 4 games over 20 points, but failed to reach the 20 point mark for the next 7 games. He’s gone over again the last two, so can his streak continue? Two things we look at: Is he your playoff starter the next two weeks (PIT, @NO) and will he score over 21 points in week 15.
Both of us said that Ryan would go over 21 points, and he did! 22.10 points total with 310 yards passing, 2 TD and 1 INT in the loss to PIT. I think most people expected a little better out of Ryan, but without the services of Julio Jones, you should be very happy with the 22 points he did get.
Demaryius Thomas: Wk 12 vs MIA – 26.70 pts, Wk 13 @ KC – 12.30 pts, Wk 14 vs BUF – 1.10 pts
Right off the bat, let’s get one thing straight. Demaryius Thomas is aMF’n stud and he belongs in your lineup each week. He is here mostly to illustrate that all of the Denver skill players are on a downward trend, at least those associated with the passing game. Thomas is not, of course, matchup proof, mostly because WR’s are so reliant on their QB. Week 14 saw his season low in targets (5), receptions (2) and yards (11). Thomas had a 7 game streak over 100 yards in the middle of the season and now has only 161 yards in the last 3 games – his 4 td’s over that time really save his fantasy value. The question here is: Will Denver get back on track? Will Demaryius Thomas scoring over 14 points against the Chargers be the indicator that yes, he and his team are back where we expect them?
Dave said he'd stay under 14 points, I said he'd go over 14. Seriously, Dave? You bet against Demaryius Thomas and you drink the consequences! Thomas had a ho-hum 6 receptions for 123 yards and 1 TD in the Broncos win at San Diego. While Peyton Manning didn't exactly light the world on fire, he is pointed back in the right direction and faces the Bengals on Monday night in week 16.
Malcom Floyd: Wk 12 vs STL – 3.00 pts, Wk 13 @ BAL – 8.50 pts, Wk 14 vs NE – 11.40 pts
It’s tough to pick a weekly receiver in the Chargers offense. It seems that no player is much more likely to go off than another guy, including Antonio Gates and last year’s phenomKeenan Allen. Floyd seemed to be the most recent flavor of the week, and did find the end zone against the Patriots and put up his second most points of the season. The problem here is that Floyd is very TD dependent, only making it into double digits when he finds pay dirt and has only made it over 100 yards receiving once this year. Is this a guy who is trending up that you want to count on the fantasy playoffs, or is this guy fantasy fool’s gold? He faces Denver in week 15 and we’ll set his line at 8.50 points.
Dave went with the over here, and I stayed under. Floyd had a typical game of 7 targets and 3 receptions, but he could only turn that into 34 yards and did not find the end zone. Floyd might have some increased value for week 16 as there have been whispers that Keenan Allen will land on the IR. Either way, the matchup with the 49ers is not a tempting one. Dave drinks five!
Joique Bell: Wk 12 @ NE – 4.60 pts, Wk 13 vs CHI –22.70 pts, Wk 14 vs TB – 25.30 pts
Bell has really excelled against poor opponents - all but one of his double digits games have come against below .500 teams. Luckily for Bell owners, he continues that through the fantasy playoffs, matching up against Minnesota this week and the Bears in week 16. Bell has seen no meaningful drop in his touches with Reggie Bush coming back, getting 23 touches just last week. With an easy matchup against the Vikings (the Jets ran for 168 yards against them on Sunday), it looks like Bell will continue trending up. We’ll set his line at a generously low 12 points (yahoo’s projection). If you think this line is too low, Bell has only gone over 12 points 4 times this season, so take that as you will.
We both said he'd go over 12 points, and while Bell had a decent game, he did not go over. His 62 yards on 15 carries and 4 receptions for 41 yards only nets him 10.30 points, which isn't bad for an RB2, but doesn't meet our projection, so we drink! Bell gets the Bears in Week 16, so fire him up against the most turbulent team in the league.
Shane Vereen: Wk 12 vs DET – 6.00 pts, Wk 13 @ GB – 3.20 pts, Wk 14 @ SD – 3.10 pts
Vereen has all but disappeared in the Patriot’s backfield confusion. First Jonas Gray puts up a 40 spot, then he is essentially replaced by Blount who was basically kicked off the Steelers for pouting. We surmised that this would leave Vereen in a good situation as the Patriots typically love the short passing game, and he excels in that game. I suppose our error then lies with us assuming the Patriots will typically do anything. The ONLY thing you can count on from them is that Gronk will SMASH (either the opponent or his own bones). So, can you count on Vereen at all going forward, or does he belong on the bench barring any injuries to others in the New England backfield? We’ll set his over/under at 8 points against a Dolphins team that is in the middle of the pack when defending RB’s.
Both of us went with the trend here (Dave actually did with every one of them) and technically, we win! Vereen had 5 rushing yards, a TD and 12 yards receiving. He's clearly not in the mix enough to be fantasy worthy, and his 7.70 points keep him just below the line we had set. His 7 total touches in this game make him a must-sit, even with a decent matchup against the Jets.
Finally, we bet on a bomber for the next show. I bet that my guy, Donte Moncrief, would score over 8 points. He finished the game with 0 points on 4 targets. Good times, drink up, Dave!
Now let’s change gears and look at some trends that we can see after week 14 and make some more predictions. Remember, for all the ones we get wrong, we will drink five on the podcast. For all the ones we get right, you guys drink!
Andrew Luck: Wk 13 vs WAS - 33.80 pts, Wk 14 @ CLE - 25.46 pts, Wk 15 vs HOU - 16.28 pts
It's the last week of fantasy football, so who cares about the little guys? We want to know about the best of the best, the guys who got us here! Luck has been trending down, technically. He's averaging just over 25 points per game on the season, and last week against a mediocre Houston defense, he only managed to get his team in the end zone twice on 13 possessions. This week he goes to Dallas, a team that needs this win a lot more than the Colts do. We'll set Luck's line at his average points for the season - 25 points.
Emmanuel Sanders: Wk 13 @ KC - 7.30 pts, Wk 14 vs BUF - 6.90 pts, Wk 15 @ SD - 5.30 pts
Sanders is another guy who you are generally starting if you have made it this far, but his numbers are starting to be alarming. Not only is he trending down, but he is consistently low while doing it. In fact, he's on a slow decent for the last 6 games. This may be proof that there actually isn't room for multiple receivers if the Broncos' passing game isn't firing on all cylinders. This is doubly true when the running game is working as well as it is right now. So, is this the Broncos finding another way to win that they're going to stick with, or are they going to bounce back somehow against the team that gives up the 2nd fewest points to opposing WR's. Sanders is averaging 12.5 per game this year and the Bengals give up about 17 pts per game to all WR's. Let's just set the line at our base we agreed upon last week of 10 points.
Odell Beckham Jr.: Wk 13 @ JAX - 9.40 pts, Wk 14 @TEN - 19.90 pts, Wk 15 vs WAS - 30.30 pts
Beckham is trending up, what a surprise. Let me take this moment to gush over his numbers. Over only 10 games, he has 71 receptions on 97 targets, catching 73.2% of the passes thrown his way. He has 972 yards and 9 touchdowns. This makes him the 2nd best player in terms of points per game (15.27). Beckham has been awesome this year, and while the Rams seem scary, their pass defense isn't that great. As long as Manning stays upright, Beckham should be ok. We'll set his target right as his average of 15 points.
Jeremy Hill: Wk 13 @ TB - 5.20 pts, Wk 14 vs PIT - 6.70 pts, Wk 15 @ CLE - 27.20 pts
Hill is a product of the work he gets, plain and simple. In 5 games with 15 or more carries, he has at least 15 points in all of those games. 1 point per touch is a damn nice average if you ask me. Hill is once again trending up after Giovani Bernard returned from injury, but was ineffective. It appears that Hill is slated to be the starter down the stretch, which should mean lots of work for him, but it's not guaranteed. 2 questions - Do you start him over Gio, and will he break his season average of 11 points?
Make sure to listen to our podcast to get our predictions and discussion of the trends into week 16 and we will recap the results next week.
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- Written by Jim Hutchins
Welcome to the article geared to winning the Fanduel Sunday Million. This week I've made heavy picks around two games that I expect to be fantasy gold mines (Steelers/Falcons and Bears/Saints). Good luck gamblers!
QB – Matt Ryan, ATL ($7,900): Going on the cheaper side for my quarterback selection this week. Ryan goes up against a Steelers defense giving up the 4th most passing touchdowns to opposing QBs so expect him to toss a few in the air to White and Douglas.
RB – Justin Forsett, BAL ($7,700): Forsett has a great match up against a Jacksonville Jaguars defense giving up the 3rd most rushing touchdowns in the league and 130.3 yards per game. Expect some involvement from Forsett in the passing game this week too.
RB – Jonathan Stewart, CAR ($6,700): It looks like DeAngelo Williams will be sitting out another week which leaves Stewart to get the bulk of the carries against a Tampa Bay defense near the bottom of the league against opposing running backs. Great volume play for the price here.
WR – Antonio Brown, PIT ($9,100): This is a dream matchup here, the top fantasy wide receiver going up against a Falcons defense giving up the most yards per game to opposing wide receivers. Should be a huge day for Brown which should compliment my QB pick of Ryan if this turns into a high scoring affair.
WR – Roddy White, ATL ($7,000): Julio Jones should be sitting out on Sunday which gives White a huge boost in value. Besides that I love this play complimented with the aforementioned Ryan and Brown.
WR – Marquess Wilson, CHI ($4,500): With Brandon Marshall out for the season Wilson will step in as the number two receiving option on a pass happy Chicago Bears team. He will face a terrible Saints defense ranking near the bottom of the league against the pass so this play has a ton of upside for the price.
TE – Jimmy Graham, NO ($6,900): Graham has posted back to back terrible weeks but this should be where he gets back on track playing a Bears defense ranked 28th against the pass.
K – Steven Hauschka, SF ($5,200): The matchup of Seattle/San Fran should be dominated by defense which means great field goal opportunities from both clubs. I like taking the home team kicker on this one.
DEF – Kansas City Chiefs ($4,900): The Chiefs get a plus match up playing at home against an Oakland Raiders team that turns the ball over the 3rd most in the league.
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- Written by Tad Bukowski
We’re getting down to the wire!
Teams are playing for their playoff lives, teams are starting to consider benching players to rest them for the playoffs, and some are making roster changes to start looking towards the future. All of these factors need to be kept in mind when making picks from here on out.
So let’s get to it!
WEEK 15! HERE WE GO!!!
(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)
16 – BALTIMORE over Jacksonville – The Jags just lost their biggest offensive weapon, Denard Robinson, for the year. The number one pick in the draft may now be theirs, and this week starts that road to being “on the clock”.
15 – NEW ENGLAND over Miami – I picked the Dolphins to beat the Pats in week 1 and said that this would be the beginning of the end of the New England dynasty. Won’t make that mistake twice!
14 – DETROIT over Minnesota – Teddy Bridgewater has shown signs of life the last few weeks. The Lions give the kid a test this week that he just may not have enough experience to pass.
13 – SEATTLE over San Francisco – The Seahawks seem to be getting back on the tracks that the 9ers seem to be running off of.
12 – INDIANAPOLIS over Houston – Houston is a consistent quarterback away from this being one of the top rivalries in the league for years to come. They’re not there yet and the Colts should be able run away with this one.
11 – KANSAS CITY over Oakland – It was just a couple weeks ago that the Raiders held on and beat the Chiefs for their first win of the season. The Chiefs haven’t forgotten that night.
10 – Pittsburgh over ATLANTA – The Steelers are going to go as far as Le’Veon Bell will take them – and this week that could be pretty far.
9 – CAROLINA over Tampa Bay – This game would be a little higher if not for Cam Newton’s car accident but the Panthers should still be able to handle the Bucs and stay alive in the lowly NFC South.
8 – Green Bay over BUFFALO – Green Bay almost let one get away last week against the Falcons. We’ll see this week if the Pack have learned from their mistakes… my money’s on yes!
7 – TENNESSEE over New York Jets – Second straight week the Titans host a team from New York. Lucky for them the AFC version has a lot less talent.
6 – Denver over SAN DIEGO – If the Chargers want to keep their AFC West hopes alive, they need this game. Don’t think they’ll get it and it may end up being the start of the fall out of the playoffs all together.
5 – Dallas over PHILADELPHIA – Dallas is desperate. They were blown out at home against these Eagles on Thanksgiving. That and the fact that their division title hopes are fading should be enough to fuel them to a big road win.
4 – New Orleans over CHICAGO – The week ends with what surely seemed like a solid battle of two NFC contenders…before the season started. Tony Romo dissected the Bears defense last week so what do you think Drew Brees can do?
3 – Cincinnati over CLEVELAND – Johnny Manziel is going to have to win a game before I even think of predicting him to win a game. My BOLD PREDICTION for this week is that Johnny Manziel will NOT be the starting quarterback for the Browns week 1 of next season.
2 – NEW YORK GIANTS over Washington – The NFC East’s other teams meet up because the schedule says they still have to. The Giants are the home team so they get to win.
1 – ST. LOUIS over Arizona – Week 15 kicks off with a battle in the NFC West. The Rams have being pretty solid lately and should be able to pull off the big upset.
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- Written by Shawn Foss
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Hopefully you were luckier than I was last week and weren't saddled with both Peyton Manning and Demaryius Thomas's soul crushing fantasy let downs. Hopefully you survived another week. The rookies played a huge role last week, especially guys like Odell Beckham Jr. and Mike Evans. Martavis Bryant wasn't too shabby either, recording the longest play from scrimmage of the season. So which rookies are worth trusting with everything on the line again this week? Let's dive in and find out...
Rookies to Start:
RB Isaiah Crowell, CLE (Wk. 15: vs. Cin.): Crowell had a passable fantasy day in week 14, finding the end zone for the 8th time in his rookie campaign, but again he split the workload fairly evenly with Terrance West. There's some risk to starting Crowell as long as West is around, but he's still the better option of the duo, and the threat of Johnny Manziel running should open up all kinds of running lanes for the Crow. I'd feel comfortable firing him up as an RB2 against a Bengals' defense that allows the 4th most points to opposing RBs.
WR Odell Beckham Jr., NYG (Wk. 15: vs. Was.): This one isn't rocket science. He's got 90+ yards in 6 straight games and 3 TDs in his last 3 games. The Redskins' defense has been burned repeatedly this year, and Beckham will likely burn them multiple times this week. He's got WR1 upside.
WR Mike Evans, TB (Wk. 15: @Car.): Evans continued to show off his considerable talents in week 14, catching 2 TDs against the stingy Lions' secondary. Carolina's defense is not nearly as stingy, and Evans has 8 TDs over the last 6 games. I expect he finds the end zone again this week, and there is no reason he should be on your bench.
WR Kelvin Benjamin, CAR (Wk. 15: vs. TB): Although KB has been thoroughly inconsistent, he remains a solid WR2. There's a lot of boom or bust potential, but Benjamin scores touchdowns so often you'd have to have elite options to play instead in order to sit Kelvin this week. He burned Tampa for a 6-92-1 line the first time these teams faced off.
WR Martavis Bryant, PIT (Wk. 15: @Atl.): Bryant is a boom or bust play as usual, but the arrow is pointing way up this week. The Falcons just got shredded by the Packers' pass attack on Monday night, and they are one of the five worst defenses in the league against fantasy wideouts. Bryant only needs one big play to be worth a lineup spot, and there's a good chance he gets that this week.
WR Jordan Matthews, PHI (Wk. 15: vs. Dal.): Matthews didn't do much last week against the Seahawks, but that's because Mark Sanchez threw for less than 100 yards against an incredible defense. Things should be better this week. He caught 4 balls for 51 yards and a TD when the Eagles went to Dallas on Thanksgiving, and I wouldn't be surprised if he exceeds that stat line this week. The Dallas defense will look like a college team in comparison to the defense the Eagles just faced.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Johnny Manziel, CLE (WK. 15: @Cin.): Johnny Football has finally gotten the nod to start at QB for the Browns. The Manziel era has arrived! Should we be excited for his first start? The jury's still out on that. He will face a tough passing defense, but his running ability will give him the chance to put together an okay fantasy day. It's almost impossible to predict how Manziel is going to do, but if you feel like rolling the dice as a low end QB2, there's certainly upside.
RB Tre Mason, STL (Wk. 15 vs. Ari.): Mason runs into a brutal matchup with the Cardinals, at least on paper, but the Cards' D has softened against the run over the past 2 weeks. Jamaal Charles and washed up Steven Jackson both had strong days against them. Mason should be a strong bet for 60+ yards and should be on the RB2 radar.
RB Jeremy Hill, CIN (Wk. 15: vs. Cle.): This week is a must win game for the Bengals, and if they're smart, they'll force feed the ball to Hill. The Browns' biggest weakness is their run defense, and Joe Haden has consistently gotten the better of A.J. Green. Hill saw a near even split of the carries with Gio Bernard just a week after questioning OC Hue Jackson's play calling. He still averaged over 5 yards per carry on his touches while Bernard had just 17 yards on 6 carries. Hill is at least a reasonable flex-play, but if the Bengals run the ball as much as they should, Hill could end up a high end RB2.
RB Terrance West, CLE (Wk. 15: @Cin.): He doesn't have nearly the upside that Crowell does this week, but as long as West is seeing close to half the carries, he still has flex appeal. The threat of Manziel's running will open up lanes for West the same as it will for Crowell.
RB Andre Williams, NYG (Wk. 15: vs. Was.): Williams is coming off his best game as a pro, but that was against the awful Titans. The Redskins are awful as well, but they are stout against the run. If Jennings is expected to be out or extremely limited again, Williams will have some low-end flex appeal, but I wouldn't expect nearly the output he managed in week 14. I'd expect 60-70 yards and a TD to be his ceiling this week if he gets the start, but it's sounding like Jennings might be close to full strength for this one. Pay attention to the updates throughout the week.
WR Sammy Watkins, BUF (Wk. 15: vs. GB): Watkins finally got back on track last week, even if a lot of the damage came in garbage time as the Bills scrambled to make it close. The Bills' offense had little to no downfield passing game for the few weeks before the Broncos game, but they should again have ample garbage time against the Packers' juggernaut offense. Watkins has shown himself to be a risky play of late, but he has a ton of upside as a WR3 this week.
WR Jarvis Landry, MIA (Wk. 15: @NE): It's a tough matchup this week with the Pats' formidable corners, but he's had 5+ catches and 40+ yards in each of his past 6 games. I'd expect that to be the floor again this week, which makes him a high floor, low upside WR3 in PPR this week.
WR Donte Moncrief, IND (Wk. 15: vs. Hou.): Moncrief has a chance to blow up over the next few games. Reggie Wayne may have a torn tricep, and he might be shut down for the rest of the season before long. Moncrief is already ahead of Hakeem Nicks on the depth chart, playing 50 snaps to Nicks's 18. Even if Wayne plays this week, Moncrief has killer upside against the worst defense in the league against WRs. If Reggie sits, Donte has WR2 upside the rest of the way this season.
WR Marqise Lee, JAX (Wk. 15: @Bal.): Lee has settled in as a PPR WR3 in each of the past 2 weeks, and now gets to face a battered Ravens' secondary that has allowed 26.5 points per game to opposing WRs, tied with the Texans for most in the NFL. Lee should again be a solid WR3 option in PPR leagues, and should be in standard leagues with 12+ teams as well.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Teddy Bridgewater, MIN (Wk. 15: @Det.): Bridgewater has finally showed the ability to produce in plus matchups, putting up 2 TDs in 4 straight games and just eclipsed 300 yards passing against the Jets in week 14. Unfortunately for Teddy, he gets to face the Lions this week. The first time around, he threw for just 188 yards, no TDs and 3 picks, and that was at home. This one's in Detroit. I wouldn't expect a much improved performance.
QB Derek Carr, OAK (Wk. 15: @KC): Carr put up his second game of the season with 3+ TDs last week, and it was something no one saw coming. I don't expect a repeat this week. The Chiefs will be itching to get their hands on Carr in Arrowhead after what happened when the teams met in Oakland. Carr will struggle to get going in this one. There's no reason to trust Carr at Arrowhead.
RB Bishop Sankey, TEN (Wk. 15: vs. NYJ): To put it simply, you can do better. Sankey's role has actually been shrinking of late, and I don't expect the trend to reverse this week against the stout Jets' defense. Sankey hasn't made himself much of a part of the passing game, and he'd be hard pressed to approach 50 yards on the ground.
RB Alfred Blue, HOU (Wk. 15: @Ind.): Blue vultured a TD from Arian Foster last week, but there's no reason to get excited. He gained just 15 yards on 9 carries against a bad defense. At this point he's nothing more than a Foster handcuff.
RB Charles Sims, TB (Wk. 15: @Car.): There just aren't enough touches coming his way to trust him with your season on the line this week. He got a season-low 6 touches against the Lions, and I'm not sure he'll see much more than that this week. He's topped 50 yards just once, and there is no reason to expect that to change this week.
RB Jerick McKinnon, MIN (Wk. 15: @Det.): McKinnon hasn't played in a couple weeks, but I'd expect him to suit up this week [Editor's Note: McKinnon has since been placed on IR]. It doesn't mean there's a place for him in your lineup. The Lions are the 3rd best defense in the league at limiting RB fantasy production, and there's no reason to think McKinnon will suddenly go off in his return from injury. He still hasn't scored a TD all year.
RB Juwan Thompson, DEN (Wk. 15: @SD): Don't chase last week's stats with Thompson. Sure he had more rushing yards than C.J. Anderson, but he touched the ball just 5 times all game, and Anderson scored all 3 touchdowns. Expect Thompson's numbers to fall off a cliff this week.
RB Carlos Hyde, SF (Wk. 15: @Sea.): I was wrong when I thought Hyde would have a surprisingly good game when the 49ers hosted the Seahawks at Levis Stadium. I won't make the same mistake as the 49ers head to Seattle. The 'Hawks are a different animal at home, and have been dominant of late on the defensive side of the ball. I wouldn't risk playing Hyde in any format.
WR Davante Adams, GB (Wk. 15: @Buf.): Adams predictably came back to earth after a huge game in prime time against New England. As long as Jordy and Cobb are able to get open, Davante is left fighting for scraps. The Bills are a slight upgrade at corner from what Atlanta offered. but they aren't in the same league as the Pats. Expect another quiet day for Adams unless he finds paydirt.
WR John Brown, ARI (Wk. 15: @StL.): Brown was held catchless on 4 targets last week, and I'm not optimistic about his outlook this week either. He does his best work on the deep ball, but Stanton will need time to throw deep, and I doubt he gets it against the Rams' ferocious pass rush. St. Louis has the 7th most sacks in the NFL (35), and all but one of them have come since week 7. The odds of Brown getting loose for a deep one are really not good.
TEs Jace Amaro, NYJ (Wk.15: @Ten.), Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TB (Wk. 15: @Car.), and Eric Ebron, DET (Wk. 15: vs. Min.): Not one rookie TE is worth playing this week. Amaro still hasn't been cleared from his concussion and ASJ is uncertain with injury this week as well. I wouldn't have any faith that they'll even play, and even less that they produce if the do. Ebron, meanwhile, has been putting up between 20 and 30 scoreless yards each week. This week he faces off with the Vikings, who allow less than 5 TE fantasy points per week. There's no reason to expect a breakout.
Deep League Sleepers:
QB Blake Bortles, JAX (Wk. 15: @Bal.): Bortles has quietly cut down on his interceptions, throwing just 4 picks in his last 5 games after averaging 2 per game over the first 6 contests, and he's also continued to give his numbers a boost with his legs, averaging 28 yards per game on the ground. This week he gets a really brutal Ravens' secondary, and is a solid bet to throw multiple TDs for just the 3rd time all year. He's certainly risky, but if you're desperate this week for a QB2, you could certainly do worse.
RB Lorenzo Taliaferro, BAL (Wk. vs. Jax.): ZoBot finally got back into the mix in the Ravens' running game last week, and there's a decent chance they play from ahead in this one. It would have to be a really deep league to give Taliaferro a try this week, but there is upside for 50+ yards and a TD if things break right.
WR Allen Hurns, JAX (Wk. 14: @Bal.): Hurns makes it a trio of sleepers in the Jags-Ravens game. I mentioned that the Ravens' secondary is really bad, and Hurns has shown the ability to get deep for scores (at least in a couple games). There is a ton of risk in playing Hurns, but he's got great upside if you're really desperate. He could be a really fun option in daily leagues or if your out of the playoffs and your league still does a high score pool each week.
That's all I've got for this week. Hopefully it helps secure you a spot in the championship. Be extra dilligent in staying on top of injury updates this week and double check the lineup before the games get started. As always, good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It's just a game.
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- Written by Jason Evans
At drinkfive, we like to think that trends of at least three games or more are something that should be a reliable indicator of future performance. That’s all fine and good, but how about we actually predict if the trends will continue or not and put our money (or beer in this case) where our mouth is.
Here are the predictions we made on last week’s show:
Tim Wright: Wk 9 vs DEN – 0.00 pts, Wk 11 @ IND – 6.20 pts, Wk 12 vs DET – 15.60 pts, Wk 13 @ GB – 1.20 pts
Dave has a rather specific prediction that says he will score between 6.1 and 8.0, I said under 6.1. Wright had just one target in an exciting game, netting him just 12 yards and no touchdowns. Wright is only played for his TD scoring (6 on the season) and really is only a last minute option. Dave drinks five for this one
Well, not so fast, just yet. Dave doubled down on this bet (double or nothing) for over 6.1 points for Wright. Well, Dave, I hope your beer is full, because Wright had 0.00 points on 2 targets. Drink five, then do it again!
Joe Flacco: Wk 10 vs TEN - 10.56 pts, Wk 12 @ NO - 13.92 pts, Wk 13 vs SD - 23.30 pts
Flacco hasn't been lighting up the world since his 5 TD game back in week 6, but his 23+ points against SD is the third time he's gone over 20 points this season. Flacco will go to Miami for Week 14, a team that is giving up the 2nd fewest points to opposing QB's. Flacco is clearly in the QB2 conversation, but does he need to be a sit this week? We will set the line at 14 points.
Both of us went under the line of 14 points for Flacco, and we’ll drink for this one. Flacco had an excellent fantasy day, throwing for 2 TD’s and rushing one in, he had his third best fantasy day of the season, putting up 25.36 points against the slipping Dolphins.
Mike Evans: Wk 11 vs ATL – 32.90 pts, Wk 12 @ CHI – 10.70 pts, Wk 13 vs CIN – 4.90 pts
Evans is a member of this year’s stellar WR rookie crop and was on his way to rookie of the year consideration for a while there. He scored 86.5 points in a 4 week stretch (9-12) and had 6 TD’s in that time. Last week he struggled, catching only 4 of 9 targets for 49 yards against the Bengals. This week it gets even harder, playing the Lions in Detroit. We’ll set Evans’s line at 11 points – can McCown get him the ball enough?
We agreed on this one as well, both of us going under 11 points for Evans. While he did struggle, catching on 4 of 11 targets, he managed to find the end zone twice, so his 4 for 45 and 2 TD line (16.50 points) is plenty to make us both drink this week.
DeSean Jackson: Wk 11 vs TB – 3.70 pts, Wk 12 @ SF – 3.90 pts, Wk 13 @ IND – 14.40 pts
Jackson is the victim of one of the more volatile QB situations in the league. The Redskins have had 3 starting QB’s this season, though it does appear that they will stick with Colt McCoy for the remainder of the season. This is good news for Jackson as he has 14 points per game when McCoy starts and he’s under 10 per game on average when he does not. This week, Jackson faces the Rams whom are giving up the 5th most fantasy points to opposing WR’s. Can Jackson keep his trend going upward? We will set the line for him at 12 points.
We split on this line, Dave going under 12 and me going over. This one, however, doesn’t really count as DeSean Jackson wound up sitting out the game on Sunday against the Rams. Jackson’s status for Week 15 is still up in the air, so make sure you’re checking the news later in the week on him.
Jeremy Hill: Wk 11 @ NO - 16.50 pts, Wk 12 @ HOU - 15.60 pts, Wk 13 @ TB - 5.20 pts
Side note before we start, the Bengals just had 3 road games and won all 3 of them, a first in franchise history. Hill has been a big part of two of those wins, racking up over 30 points in the first two games, but only carrying the ball 13 times for 40 yards last week (3.1 ypc). That's quite disappointing, compared to the 4.9 ypc he had going into the game. Hill criticized the play calling, his OC promptly called him out, saying he needs to break more tackles and block better. Perhaps the fire has been lit under Hill's ass and he has a home game against the Steelers this Sunday to show he deserves time on the field instead of Giovani Bernard. We'll set the line for Hill at 10 this week, due to the Steelers only giving up 16 to opposing RB's and Gio getting back into the swing of things.
Hill was the choice in the Bengals backfield on Sunday, but the game got away from them once the fourth quarter came around. Hill ended the game with 6.7 points (8 for 46, 3 rec for 21) and that’s lower than the line we set at 10 points, which we both went over. Both of us drink, again!
Rashad Jennings: Wk 11 vs SF - 6.70 pts, Wk 12 vs DAL - 12.00 pts, Wk 13 @ JAX 21.40 pts
Jennings returned to the Giants lineup three weeks ago, and has been trending up ever since. His first game was shaky against the 49ers, but since then has been the RB2 you expected him to be. Andre Williams is basically irrelevant for fantasy purposes and all but being a goal line back for the Giants. Jennings will see the bulk of the work going forward, as his 26 carries in Jacksonville can attest. We'll set the line at 12 points for his Week 14 matchup in Tennessee.
I’m sensing a pattern here. Once again, we both went over and once again, we’re both wrong. Jennings had some injury issues crop up this week after we made our predictions, but he did play and finished the game with 2.20 points. Andre Williams started and was just fine against the worst run D in the league. So…We’ll drink our five and make sure to keep an eye on Jennings’s practice sessions this week ahead of his matchup with Washington.
Jason Witten: Wk 10 @ JAX - 9.30 pts, Wk 12 @ NYG - 9.00 pts, Wk 13 vs PHI - 0.80 pts
Tight Ends don't really seem to trend like QB/WR/RB, but let's give it a shot anyway. Witten has been a disappointment all season and while 30 yards and a TD in weeks 10 and 12 may seem acceptable, those are the 2nd and 3rd highest scoring weeks this season. Witten plays the "soft enough for a bear in the woods" Chicago Bears defense, so can we expect 9 points, or is he a definite sit?
Well, if there’s one trend, it’s that we were wrong about trends last week. Witten managed only 2.6 points in a great matchup against the Bears. His struggles to be the least bit relevant this year speak volumes and I think it’s safe to say that we’ve seen the end of the Jason Witten era in Dallas. We’ll drink for going under our predicted line and to Witten’s hall of fame career.
Finally, a bet where one of us was bound to win – because it was against each other. Dave bet that the Steelers would beat the Bengals, and while at the end of the 3rd it looked like I might pull it out, the fourth quarter belonged entire to Le’Veon Bell and the Steelers. I’ll be providing the beers for tonight’s show, they’ll be good ones!
Now let’s change gears and look at some trends that we can see after week 14 and make some more predictions. Remember, for all the ones we get wrong, we will drink five on the podcast. For all the ones we get right, you guys drink!
Matt Ryan: Wk 12 vs CLE – 16.52 pts, Wk 13 vs ARI – 21.84 pts, Wk 14 @ GB – 32.30 pts
Matt Ryan finds himself in a nice position of symmetry. He’s currently the 8th ranked QB in standard Yahoo leagues, and his ADP position was #8 in the preseason. He’s finally playing up to his expected level, but it’s only been a late run that has gotten him there. Ryan started off the season with 3 of 4 games over 20 points, but failed to reach the 20 point mark for the next 7 games. He’s gone over again the last two, so can his streak continue? Two things we look at: Is he your playoff starter the next two weeks (PIT, @NO) and will he score over 21 points in week 15.
Demaryius Thomas: Wk 12 vs MIA – 26.70 pts, Wk 13 @ KC – 12.30 pts, Wk 14 vs BUF – 1.10 pts
Right off the bat, let’s get one thing straight. Demaryius Thomas is a MF’n stud and he belongs in your lineup each week. He is here mostly to illustrate that all of the Denver skill players are on a downward trend, at least those associated with the passing game. Thomas is not, of course, matchup proof, mostly because WR’s are so reliant on their QB. Week 14 saw his season low in targets (5), receptions (2) and yards (11). Thomas had a 7 game streak over 100 yards in the middle of the season and now has only 161 yards in the last 3 games – his 4 td’s over that time really save his fantasy value. The question here is: Will Denver get back on track? Will Demaryius Thomas scoring over 14 points against the Chargers be the indicator that yes, he and his team are back where we expect them?
Malcom Floyd: Wk 12 vs STL – 3.00 pts, Wk 13 @ BAL – 8.50 pts, Wk 14 vs NE – 11.40 pts
It’s tough to pick a weekly receiver in the Chargers offense. It seems that no player is much more likely to go off than another guy, including Antonio Gates and last year’s phenom Keenan Allen. Floyd seemed to be the most recent flavor of the week, and did find the end zone against the Patriots and put up his second most points of the season. The problem here is that Floyd is very TD dependent, only making it into double digits when he finds pay dirt and has only made it over 100 yards receiving once this year. Is this a guy who is trending up that you want to count on the fantasy playoffs, or is this guy fantasy fool’s gold? He faces Denver in week 15 and we’ll set his line at 8.50 points.
Joique Bell: Wk 12 @ NE – 4.60 pts, Wk 13 vs CHI – 22.70 pts, Wk 14 vs TB – 25.30 pts
Bell has really excelled against poor opponents - all but one of his double digits games have come against below .500 teams. Luckily for Bell owners, he continues that through the fantasy playoffs, matching up against Minnesota this week and the Bears in week 16. Bell has seen no meaningful drop in his touches with Reggie Bush coming back, getting 23 touches just last week. With an easy matchup against the Vikings (the Jets ran for 168 yards against them on Sunday), it looks like Bell will continue trending up. We’ll set his line at a generously low 12 points (yahoo’s projection). If you think this line is too low, Bell has only gone over 12 points 4 times this season, so take that as you will.
Shane Vereen: Wk 12 vs DET – 6.00 pts, Wk 13 @ GB – 3.20 pts, Wk 14 @ SD – 3.10 pts
Vereen has all but disappeared in the Patriot’s backfield confusion. First Jonas Gray puts up a 40 spot, then he is essentially replaced by Blount who was basically kicked off the Steelers for pouting. We surmised that this would leave Vereen in a good situation as the Patriots typically love the short passing game, and he excels in that game. I suppose our error then lies with us assuming the Patriots will typically do anything. The ONLY thing you can count on from them is that Gronk will SMASH (either the opponent or his own bones). So, can you count on Vereen at all going forward, or does he belong on the bench barring any injuries to others in the New England backfield? We’ll set his over/under at 8 points against a Dolphins team that is in the middle of the pack when defending RB’s.
Make sure to listen to our podcast to get our predictions and discussion of the trends into week 15 and we will recap the results next week.