Fantasy Football / NFL
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- Written by Rainey McGinnis
I tell you one thing, if this season is anything like the preseason was, we are in for a roller coaster ride. There is so much petty stuff going on in the NFL, I swear I feel like I am reading a script to 90210. Ya'll know what I'm talking bout, don't play like you don't, lol.
MORE INJURIES:
Just when you thought it was safe to go back out on the field, BAM, a few more guys get jacked up. Green Bay got a second scare when Randall Cobb took a fall on his shoulder. They originally thought it was a broken collar bone but an MRI showed that it was an AC joint sprain. You guys KNOW, Cobb is NOT missing his chance to shine in GB, come on man, you thought he was going down that easily, not today people, not today. He will be playing.
RB, Duke Johnson for Cleveland ended up on the bad end of a concussion in the 1st half of Saturday night's win over Tampa Bay. They said that he was ROCKED on a hit by Bucs CB Mike Jenkins and could be out for some time. The Browns were putting a lot of hope in Johnson for the season but he hasn't been able to stay healthy. With Johnson's injury and throw in veteran Shaun Draugh and Glenn Winston, this has left the Browns thinner than Olive Oil at the running back position. 2nd year backs Terrance West and Isaiah Crowell have pretty much NOT lived up to expectations and Pettine said the team may consider other options at the position. In a word, some people are about to get the boot. There's more, word is Ray Rice could be one of those options. All Pettine said is, "if we do come to the decision that we need to add a back that is not here, we'll look at the list and see who's open." Talk about not making a firm commitment.
I didn't believe it until just now. They say twins feel each others pain. Well Dolphins Center Mike Pouncey left the game against the Falcons with a knee injury when another player fell on his leg. and will undergo an MRI on Sunday. The injury left the Dolphins with only two OL starter at their regular season. If you recall, his twin brother Maurkice Pouncy, Steelers Center, was cut down early with an ankle injury in preseason week 2, that will require surgery and he is out indefinitely. Hot off the presses today, MIKE Pouncey practices Monday and will be ready for WK1. At least one of them is still standing.
It's not enough that we get some of the worst winters ever, but we [The Bears] are still dropping like flies. So the Bears cut Tim Jennings, like they got a wide selection of players at any position at this point, but you cut a veteran player who could maybe help some of the youngsters that are coming in. With that being said, we lost the top two nose tackles to injuries during the preseason loss to the Bengals on Saturday. Veteran Jeremiah Ratliff left the game early and when he returned he was wearing a walking boot. The X-rays showed no fracture, but I am sure he will be out a game or two. Then 2nd round rookie Eddie Goldman suffered a concussion. I'm done with the injuries, too many to list anyway, it will never end.
IT'S GET'N HOT IN HERE!!!
OK, so there is a war in the Redskins' locker room. RGIII has been benched for the start of the season, even though his face is on the ticket for WK1. The starting honor now goes to Kirk Cousins, he is the new starting QB for the Redskins. Things have taken such a turn for the worse with the already-dysfunctional relationship between Griffin and the Redskins that reports indicate many high-ranking officials and several coaches want to move on from the quarterback. Sources have also said that the team discussed trading RG3. I heard St. Louis was peeking and another team too, can't remember which one. But get this, they had an article explaining why RG3 would be a good fit in Chicago. My thoughts: No thank you, we still got some cleaning up to do ourselves.
IT JUST WON'T DIE.
That pesky "jawbreak" is still in the headlines. So my CI told me that the whole thing was about money and a promise not kept. Geno owed Ike $600. Geno promised to come to a charity event for Ike and then he doesn't show up. So Ike just wanted his $600 that he paid for Geno to come and $1000 for his charity. They even threw Mark Sanchez in the mix and said he would have gladly paid Ike back and given him money for the charity. Come on man, you have an ATM right there in the locker room, but the way Geno's checking and savings is set up............well, you get my point. He paid for it in a more painful way and naturally, the locker room is split. My thoughts: I still think Geno Smith is overrated. Ryan Fitzpatrick will step up now.
As "deflategate" turns. So, Tom Brady's 4 game suspension was overturned. The Judge said that Tom was never told he could be suspended. You mean like if you rob a bank and you go to jail but then they overturn the sentence and let you out of jail because you were never told that you could go to jail for robbing a bank? Really, come on man. I don't know what Brady did or didn't do, but you guys know that it always comes down to the money. You also know that if Brady doesn't play, it affects the money, do the math with me people. Goodell was sucker punched on this one. He will NOT attend the season opener with the Patriots going up against the Steelers. Tom said the intern did it! P.S. Snoop Dogg is not too happy with the judges decision, he's a Steelers fan. The NFL is already working on an appeal, stay tuned.
Speaking of interns.. so RG3 supposedly "liked" a tweet or post, whatever it's called on instagram, bashing the Redskins organization. RG3 said, no way, you ain't pinning this on me, the INTERN did it. He put a full post on instagram, big ole giant letters saying, "I did not "like" that Post." Which I guess is what folks do when they like a post, lol. Really RG3, kinda sounds like, "I did not have sexual intercourse with that woman." We all know how that turned out. I'm just saying. Just in this morning, it's 5 teams that are looking at RG3, they all only have slight interest, none have a strong interest.
FYI: MO FOOTBALL, MO FOOTBALL.
In case you are looking for some really good football shows that showcase a different player/team/coach that played or coached over the years, you might want to check out, "A Football Life" and "30/30". I have watched a lot of them but a few that really stood out were the ones on Bo Jackson, Jerry Rice, Walter Peyton and Lyle Alzado. Last night, I watched "The Book of Manning." I love P. Manning and I think Eli is cool and I knew their dad Archie played and brought Ole Miss back to life, where Eli followed in his footsteps and attended Ole Miss and broke almost all of his dad's records. Peyton opted for Tennessee which brought him and his dad death threats and all kind of crazy hate mail. Then there was Cooper, the oldest, whose career was cut short by a disease that put him one hit away from a wheel chair, so he left the sports world. I was intrigued by a family where 2 sons of a QB went on to play pro ball, win Super Bowls and were MVP's in Super Bowls. Quick, name another family that has that mix? If there is one, I would love to read up on them. I know about the Barber and Talib brothers already. Both shows are really good and if you are a football nut like me, you probably already know about these programs. Just my 2 cents.
Last tidbit. The K.C. Chiefs went undefeated this preseason. Did you know that the last 2 times they went undefeated in the preseason, they played in the Super Bowl those years? No lie, lol. Maybe they will make it to the 50th in 2016.
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- Written by Matt Cochrane
The long awaited court ruling on Tom Brady's suspension finally came in today. And if your league has already had your draft, you probably got him at a steal. Of course the court made the obvious decision to overturn the 4 game suspension. As much as I despise Tom Brady and as guilty as he was, there is no rule in the NFL rulebook that allows a player to be suspended for deflating footballs or interfering with an investigation. The court had to make this decision to uphold the integrity of the collective bargaining agreement between the NFLPA and the owners. Roger Goodell knew this ruling would come if the suspension were to be challenged in court and tried to get Brady to admit guilt and take a reduced suspension. I applaud Tom Brady for calling his bluff here and getting the suspension eliminated entirely.
The moment this story was reported it was obvious to me and anyone with half a brain that Brady was involved in deflatting these footballs. A quarterback of Tom Brady's caliber is the lord of the fooball team. Nobody is going to alter the condition of the football without his knowledge. You can't claim lack of evidence, because zero evidence is needed. The savvy thing for Brady to have done, was admit something right away. A simple “I said the balls felt a little firm in warm-ups, can you guys let some air out, I had no idea they would end up below PSI regulations” by Brady would have been the perfect bullshit statement to end the circus before it started. He would only have gotten the mandated $25,000 fine for the violation as stated in the NFL policy book.
So what does this mean going forward? Well the NFL is going to appeal this decision but that won't be ruled on until after the completion of this season. My guess is that Brady never misses a game and pays a small fine and maybe even retires before this whole thing is over. As for the fondling of the balls in the future the NFL really has two choices. The logical one (based on all the comments from players past and current) is to allow each team to alter the balls however they would like. There is also what they will probably do: taking away possession of the balls from team trainers after inspection, prior to taking the field.
So just remember, Tom Brady was guilty just not convicted.
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- Written by Rainey McGinnis
Hi everyone,
It's about that time. A few ground rules I want you all to remember as the season goes on:
- My blogs are always a week behind, so if you see your team is not in their rightful 1st place slot at the time, don't be mad, lol. They will be the next week.
- Don't kill the messenger, I read, I pass on, that's it that's all.
So as my Bears go 2-0 so far in the preseason, other things have been going on. I know, it's only preseason but I don't care, say it with me people, A WIN IS A WIN!
N.Y. JETS:
Seems that Coach Bowles is making it tiring for his Jets to talk about "jaw break gate". Anyone who talks about the sucker punch that Ike gave to Geno, has to run laps. Like that's going to work, some of these boys run laps for a living coach, I'm just saying.
NEW YORK GIANTS:
WR Odell Beckham already owns one of the top selling jerseys in the NFL. He has now inked a deal with ROAR beverages, never heard of it, so don't ask me. But, the CEO Roly Nesi said that OB embodies the spirit of this brand in the physical form. The loud, in your face, style in and off the field that kids want to emulate. I can go with that, but when he said "I think it's going to really change the way people look at a sports drink endorsement," he kinda lost me. We will probably gawk at the huge amount of $$ he got for the endorsement and if they put the pic of the one handed catch he made against Dallas I believe, I would look at the bottle, then I would grab my Gatorade. I am sure if it was not Dallas, someone will refresh my memory. But word on the street, he and Eli were not in sync for the first two preseason games.. now that's a reason for concern, Giants fans.
OUCH, I HURT MY:
Yes, the injury bug is out there full force. Some players will be back in 4-6 weeks and some are done for the season. Here's a look at the five biggest injuries coming out of games and practices in Week 2 of the preseason:
WR, Jordy Nelson: He has emerged as quarterback Aaron Rodgers' favorite target, posting career-highs last season in receptions (98) and yards (1,519) while catching 13 touchdown passes. The 6-foot-3 Nelson creates mismatches against smaller corner backs while also possessing the speed to burn defenses deep. He tore his ACL, no contact on this injury. He landed awkwardly while trying to cut after making a catch. The Packers were hoping for the better news, but it was not to be. Just got the official word yesterday that he is DONE for the season. "It's difficult to lose a guy like that in a meaningless game," said Rodgers, who made his disdain for the preseason clear during his post game news conference.
The only good news for Green Bay is that the Packers are deep at the position. Randall Cobb, who would be a No. 1 receiver for other teams, will likely replace Nelson in that role. Davonte Adams now steps into the starting lineup after off season work that drew raves from teammates and Packers head coach Mike McCarthy. Jeff Janis and rookie Ty Montgomery will vie for the No. 3 receiver spot while backup tight end Richard Rodgers appears ready to assume a bigger role in the passing game alongside starter Andrew Quarless.
Center, Maurkice Pouncey: He is part of the reason why the Steelers finished with the NFL's second-ranked offense last year in the first season that Pouncey started all 16 games since 2010. He was injured Sunday when Packers safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix rolled up on his leg while tackling running back Le'Veon bell. His ankle was broken and it will take surgery to repair it. He is out indefinitely, aka, the whole season. Cody Wallace, who started five games for Pouncey in 2013, will likely get the starting nod. He needs to shake some rust off.
WR, Kelvin Benjamin: Like Nelson, his torn ACL was not due to contact. He crumpled last Wednesday when trying to cut in a passing drill during a joint practice with Miami. The Panthers announced that he will miss the 2015 season. Unlike the Packers, Carolina doesn't have another receiver like Randall Cobb who can step in for Benjamin. Devin Funchess is a big-bodied target like Benjamin, but some feel he isn't ready to handle the same type of load as Benjamin who caught 73 passes for 1,008yds and 9 TDs during his 2014 rookie debut. The Panthers will look to a small arsenal of players to replace Benjamin. It includes Funchess, Corey Brown, Ted Ginn Jr & Brenton Bersin. I bet they wish they would have picked up Reggie Wayne whom they had on their radar. He is now a Patriot. But that may be a blessing in disguise that they let him pass through their fingers. Word on the street is that Wayne will mostly be serving in a mascot role, bringing leadership and a sure pair of hands as needed. He just made his way bay from a torn ACL last season and he also is slowed by a triceps injury. Wayne will be 37 in November, you do the math!! Belichick says that just have to see how it goes.
FS, Louis Delmas: The day before this injury, ex-Dolphin LB, Channing Crowder mentioned on his radio show that he noticed a hitch in Delmas running style. Crowder believes it came from Delmas making a quick but prmature return from last December's reconstructive knee surgery. Well, as fate would have it, the very next day, Delmas re-tore the ACL in his right knee and is out for the season. Walt Aikens, a 2014 4th round draft pick from Liberty, has replace Delmas in the Dolphins starting line up. Special teams ace Mike Thomas is now the top backup to Aikens & strong safety Reshad Jones.
Arizona nose tackle Corey Peters (Achilles tendon): Twenty months removed from shredding his right Achilles tendon while playing for Atlanta, Peters tore his left one last Thursday during practice. Peters was signed to replace the departed Dan Williams (Oakland) as Arizona's starting nose tackle. That responsibility now falls to Rodney Gunter, a 2015 fourth-round pick from Delaware State, with veteran Alameda Ta'amu serving as the backup.
On the Bears injury list, from what I heard, word is that Jay Cutler doesn't even know the names of some of the guys he will be throwing to this Saturday when they take on the Bengals at their home field. Like that's going to make a difference. We have so many guys out that I think I might borrow my grandson's Dolton Bears uniform, #54, and suit up to try and help my Bears this season. I'm just saying..
Overall Damage:
Former Packers TE, Tom Crabtree tweeted, "Preseason football is the worst," but that doesn't mean it will change. For NFL owners who might even think of eliminating the 4 game preseason, it would mean a big loss of game day revenue. It comes down to this: reducing player wear and tear is less important than the dollars generated from these preseason contests. Plus the owners say that the same injuries could happen at any time and they need the preseason to look at and evaluate the new guys.
The best approach for teams toward preseason contests is being ultra-conservative in how long starters and superstars play -- if at all -- to mitigate injury risk. For example, New England's Rob Gronkowski hasn't appeared in a preseason game since 2012. The absence certainly hasn't hurt Gronkowski's performance in the regular season as the NFL's top tight end.
A FEW OTHER THINGS:
The Houston Texans have named Brian Hoyer the Team's starting QB over Ryan Mallett. I heard through the grapevine that Ryan is prettyyyy angry about that.
WHERE'S THE TRUST MAN!!
According to Bob Kravitz of WTHR, the Colts sweep the visitor's locker room at Gillette Stadium to check for bugs or listening devices. This is a sad tradition that the Colts have when playing the Patriots. That in itself gets into their heads before the game. You are so focused on being cheated that you can't play the game, smh. The Patriots are now for sure the team that all other teams agree on. They are cheaters! Jim McMahon, former Funky QB of the 1985 Bears Super Bowl team, says Belichick is a liar for sure and cheating isnt far behind. I think he's a little salty.
LAST WORD:
5 most boring NFL prime time match ups for 2015.....
As you all know, every team playing football in prime time is a must see game. These are the ones that the "experts" at ESPN say that instead of watching, you can go wash your car or go out to dinner, etc. I'm just saying, there are 53 prime time games throughout the season. There are always a few that you can miss, and spend time with the family and score brownie points.
- Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars, TNF, WK11. I'm falling asleep already. These two bottom feeding AFC South teams get a chance at prime time like everybody else. Even if they ONLY won a total of 5 games, COMBINED, last season. They played TNF in WK 16 last season with the Jaguars coming out on top 21-13. Hey, somebody had to win. My thoughts: I will probably work around the house on this one.
- Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers TNF, WK12, Thanksgiving night. OK, stop laughing at my Bears. We are going to WIN this one, don't believe me just watch!!! OMG, this is what they said about my Bears playing the Packers, LMAO. This unexciting game might put you to sleep. In fact, it might have all of us snoring with a cocktail in our hands by halftime. With the Packers playing at home against what promises to be a suspect Bears team, this game has slaughter written all over it. The Bears have lost nine of their last 10 meetings with the Packers and with Jay likely to be under center, we can all expect that patented 2nd QTR interception to put this one away and send us all to bed. My Thoughts: Forget ya'll, my Bears are gonna win. They said that David wouldn't beat Goliath, didn't they, but guess what, Goliath went down!!
- Tampa Bay Bucs @ St. Louis Rams, TNF WK15. In What will likely be QB Jameis Winston's prime time debut, this game does not offer much of a wow factor. Neither team will be anywhere near the run for a playoff spot at this point. This could be a TNF shutout, especially considering the Rams defense has been known to have its way with lower-scoring offenses in the past. The most we can hope for in this late season game is a sort of close scoring competition to keep us from changing the channel. My thoughts: Who really cares, my Bears will have already beaten GB on Turkey Day and I'll still be floating on that. Don't believe me just watch!!
- New York Jets @ Dallas Cowboys, SNF, WK16. Wait, this is funny, cuz Dallas is going to beat NYJ down, that's my prediction. Don't you all remember how well the Cowboys played during the stretch run in 2014? I do. The Jets, not so much. They will have their usual meager handful of wins, they will still think Geno is the answer and they will just not be a factor against the Cowboys, playing them in Dallas no less. I don't care who is the QB for the Jets in WK16, but if the Cowboy's have last year's December version of Tony Romo in the house, this game could be a blowout to the 3rd power. My thoughts: Dallas 46-Jets 7 or something like that. I'm just saying.
- San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders, SNF, WK16. OK, this game is on Christmas Eve. Are you going to give up that mad rush for last minute shopping, I don't think so. If the Chargers are still led by Phillip Rivers in this one, they could very well be competing for a playoff berth. If the Raiders are competing for an actual playoff spot at this point, then something went really wrong in the AFC West. Then again, this might be the Raiders last home game in Oakland before heading to Southern California. The Raiders might actually put up a fight to win this one. My thoughts: The Raiders are moving???
Lastly, I want to take a moment to say R.I.P. to Darryl Dawkins, AKA, Chocolate Thunder. He passed yesterday @ 58 years young, of a heart attack. If you don't know who he is, do yourself a favor and look him up. He was the reason they made shatter proof back boards & break away rims in the NBA. I loved watching him play with the Sixers. As Shaq put it, "he was the father of the dunk, I am just one of his sons."
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- Written by David Biggs
Let’s get ready for some football! In our discussion we’ll mostly be talking about standard leagues unless otherwise mentioned. But, in general, just keep in mind that pass-catching RBs will be slightly more valuable in PPR leagues and we’ll all be on the same page!
So last week we analyzed both the overvalued and undervalued QBs in the NFL this season by taking a quick look at our rankings for those players vs. the ECR (expert consensus ranking from fantasypros.com) and ADP (average draft position) that the players are currently going at. This week we’ll attempt to do the same thing with RBs.
(Listen to the Fantasy Football Podcast, 8/25/15: The Preseason RB Show!)
I say attempt, because with any offensive positional player in the NFL that is not a QB the variance is going to be higher and depend a lot more on outside factors than for quarterbacks. Not to mention the fact that the likelihood or injury goes up substantially for these players, RB especially.
John Paulsen (of 4for4.com) recently wrote an insightful column about this very subject. In trying to determine whether or not wide receivers are safer picks at various points in the draft, he crunched quite a few numbers. Ultimately, his research seems to indicate that although the top 2 RBs in any given year will generally outperform any of the other WRs in the draft, the drop-off after that point favors WR value until later rounds. For example, over the last 10 seasons (after the top 2 RBs have been taken out of the equation) 5 of the next 7 receivers offer relative value (difference between points scored and points scored by a baseline player at that position) above their trend line, while that is only true for 5 of the next 11 running backs.
Another interesting bit is that RBs taken just a little bit later (early 2nd round) tend to outperform those taken in the middle of the first round (relative to their draft position). Anyway, just something to keep in mind. Let’s get back to it!
Undervalued RBs
Antone Smith - #52 on our rankings, ECR #75 and ADP #61. We value Antone more highly than a lot of our colleagues because he is a very dangerous playmaker on the field. Already 29 years old, Smith has never had a substantial amount of touches until the 2014 season and he ended the season with 366 yards and 5 TDs on only 36 touches. Unfortunately for Smith, he broke his leg toward the end of the season last year and finds himself striving for carries behind the split backfield of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman but we know that when he gets the opportunity, he’ll make the most of it. Make no mistake, this is a flier or deep league pick only, but one that could pay off quickly should Smith see the field more than a few snaps per game.
Danny Woodhead - #25 on our rankings, ECR #42 and ADP #47. Woodhead is the little RB that could. He’s quick, scrappy and many people forget about the numbers that he put up during the 2013 season before he was injured at the beginning of 2014. In his first season on the Chargers, Woodhead rushed 106 times for 429 yards (4.0 YPC) and 2 TDs and put up 76 receptions for 605 yards and 6 TDs. Those numbers made him the #19 RB overall in standard scoring leagues in 2013. All signs point to Woodhead being healthy this year, and resuming his pre-injury role as a 3rd down passing back and safety valve for Rivers which should lead to similar stats this year (although we will always plan for a regression from a career year).
Giovani Bernard - #18 on our rankings, ECR #28 and ADP #27. Bernard had a slight sophomore slump in 2014 and dealt with an injury toward the middle of the season. It seems that he is now firmly planted as the 3rd down back behind Jeremy Hill, but even though we’re penciling Bernard in for less than 10 touches a game (down from the 16 that he averaged in 2014) he excels in the passing game and will certainly see more work in games where the Bengals fall behind on the scoreboard. At first glance it may appear that he is just a complementary back to Hill this season but the numbers say otherwise.
Chris Ivory - #20 on our rankings, ECR #27 and ADP #31. Ivory had some breakout performances in his first year with the Saints in 2010, but injuries held him back from being productive in subsequent years until he was traded to the Jets for the 2013 season. He has steadily improved there (putting up 7 TDs and almost 1000 all-purpose yards last year on 216 touches) and the other Jets’ RBs are underwhelming, to put it lightly (Bilal Powell, Zac Stacy, Stevan Ridley). With the recent news that Ivory may start being more active in the passing game and the current lack of quality depth at the position, we may see him in more of a 3-down role which more than warrants his position here.
Overvalued RBs
Rashad Jennings - #42 on our rankings, ECR #30 and ADP #24. Jennings had the #1 RB job for most of the 2014 season, with Andre Williams filling in at some spots and vulturing some carries as well. We’ve seen Jennings perform well, putting up 4.5 YPC in 2013 for Oakland and scoring 6 TDs that same year, but unless lightning strikes for Jennings it is likely he performs closer to his middling performance last year (only 3.8 YPC) and the Giants will form some kind of committee with Shane Vereen and Andre Williams preventing too much relevant production from Jennings this year.
Bishop Sankey - #56 on our rankings, ECR #38 and ADP #42. Sankey struggled mightily in 2014 despite being basically handed the job as lead back in Tennessee (3.7 YPC and only 2 TDs on 152 carries). With rookie David Cobb and scatback Dexter McCluster also on the squad, Sankey looks to settle in to a role as the 1a of a big committee. We’ve seen Sankey on sleeper lists and as someone to target in deep drafts but I don’t see any pluses here, especially as a part of such a young offense that has yet to prove themselves (and veteran talent Hakeem Nicks and Harry Douglas don’t exactly inspire trust).
Isaiah Crowell - #43 on our rankings, ECR #33 and ADP #33. Cleveland Browns.. need I say anymore? Alright, Crowell does have a little upside having scored 8 TDs last year and averaged just more than 4 YPC, but we haven’t seen either Crowell or Terrance West (both involved in a battle of irrelevancy last year for the lead back position in Cleveland) really show well on the field, which means that rookie RB Duke Johnson could just as easily find himself with the job. Seems that the overvalued RBs we’ve discussed are all having issues solidifying a role in their respective offenses.. Crowell is no different.
Carlos Hyde - #27 in our rankings, ECR #19 and ADP #17. Here’s another tough situation: although Hyde currently replaces Gore as the RB1 in that offense (which did add Reggie Bush as a passing-down back), it’s impossible to project Hyde as a top 20 pick based on his limited demonstrated skills in the NFL. Only rushing 83 times for 333 yards (4.0 YPC) last year does not tell us much, unfortunately. Even if Hyde does get the bulk of the early down work for the 49ers, though, their personnel list has been devastated in the off-season and those losses and the change to new team management does not bode well. No, it’s more likely that their offense has to pass the ball more because they fall behind in games without a dominant defense and Bush will probably factor more into that game plan than Hyde.
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- Written by Shawn Foss
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! A new season is almost upon us. You may have already drafted a fantasy team, but if you haven't, the rookies are always the hardest to predict. There's no track record to go off of, so it all becomes a guessing game based on role and perceived talent. With that in mind...I'm here to help. Each week throughout the season I'll breakdown which rookies you should start, which are borderline options, and which rookies you should sit. I'll also throw in a few deep league/cheap DFS sleepers each week as well. Since it's not quite week 1, today is about breaking down which rookies you want to own this season and why. I'll give you my quick top 10 redraft rookies, followed by a position-by-position preview. So, without further ado...
Top 10 Re-draft Rookies
1. WR Nelson Agholor, PHI: Melvin Gordon will lose touches to Danny Woodhead, Yeldon and Amari are on bad offenses. Nelson is ticketed for a big role in a high-volume attack. He's the safest rookie option.
2. RB TJ Yeldon, JAX: More on the reasoning later, but let's leave it at this - Yeldon should be a 3-down back while Gordon projects to be a 2-down back this year.
3. RB Melvin Gordon, SD: See above for reasoning
4. WR Amari Cooper, OAK: Clear-cut WR1 in an offense that will play from behind a bit.
5. RB Todd Gurley, STL: Would be number one on the list if we knew he would be ready to go at full strength week 1.
6. WR Devin Funchess, CAR: Injury to Kelvin Benjamin makes him the Panthers' WR1. His ceiling likely resembles what KB did last season.
7. RB Ameer Abdullah, DET: The longer it takes Joique to get onto the field, the larger the portion of his workload Abdullah will steal.
8. RB Tevin Coleman, ATL: Still unclear who will be the lead back in Atlanta, but Coleman was hand-picked by Kyle Shanahan in the draft. Expect a 50-50 split with Freeman at a minimum.
9. WR DeVante Parker, MIA: Parker's role is unclear with a crowded group of receivers, but the Dolphins' offense might break out in a big way, and Parker might be the most talented guy in the group. I wouldn't bet against him carving out a nice role this year.
10. WR Dorial Green-Beckham, TEN: Monster talent with a clear path the the #1 WR job in Tennessee's offense. It might not be a great offense, but if DGB's off-field troubles are behind him he could be a star soon.
Alright, there's the top 10, now onto the positional breakdowns...
QUARTERBACK:
Let's be honest, in re-draft there are only two QBs that are even worth considering. The rest of the crop may have some upside down the road...Sean Mannion is basically Mike Glennon part deux, Garrett Grayson could develop into a Joe Flacco-type at best (albeit with a weaker arm), Bryce Petty is the closest to a starting gig with only old man Fitz and inept Geno in front of him, but the rookie QB not in the top 2 with the most upside is Brett Hundley. He's just stuck behind Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay.
I know, I didn't rank any in the top 10 rookies, and there's a good reason for that. It isn't that I don't like the top 2, I just don't see either guy being more than a low-end QB2, which means you really aren't playing either guy unless you're in a 2 quarterback league or as a bye filler. While both are borderline top-20 options at QB this year (I have Jameis at 19 and Mariota at 22), I'd give the edge to Winston because of the TD potential he has with the red zone giants he has to throw to. Both guys have illicited positive reviews in camp, but I just expect the Bucs to have a better offense than the Titans. I think the TD count for Jameis will be enough to offset the damage Mariota does on the ground, and I'm more likely to take a shot on Winston than Mariota in a 2QB league.
In dynasty leagues, I really like both guys, but I still give the edge to Jameis. Again, it mostly boils down to weapons. Mike Evans and Austin Seferian-Jenkins give Winston two excellent targets who will be around a long time. Mariota gets Kendall Wright, who is a great possession WR, but the only physical freak target he has, Dorial Green-Beckham, is a huge question mark long-term due to off the field and maturity issues. Some would argue that Winston has some of those issues himself, and he probably does, but crab legs and public vulgarity and the sexual assault case are only part of the story with Winston. He's also a player who's been breaking down coverages since he was a kid watching NFL games on TV. Reading defenses and anticipating what they're doing is 2nd nature to Winston, and that is the single most important attribute to be a good NFL QB. While Mariota is a great leader with a high footbal IQ and electric running ability, I don't see that as enough to overcome his below-average situation and make him a better dynasty option than Jameis. The Titans have been one of the worst run franchises in the NFL.
RUNNING BACKS:
The rookie running back crop should have one clear-cut number 1 fantasy asset (and in dynasty leagues it does), and that guy is Todd Gurley. Unfortunately, due to a torn ACL last year at Georgia, his early season status is up in the air, opening the door for TJ Yeldon and Melvin Gordon to move ahead of him in re-draft formats. All three fall in the range from mid-RB2 to high RB3. There's still a very real chance that Gurley becomes a league-winner if he's back sooner than expected, but all signs point to him being eased back in to begin with. For me, Yeldon is #1 amongst the running backs in re-draft leagues. What separates him from Melvin Gordon is his 3-down role. Gordon is not good in the receiving game or in pass protection, two areas where Danny Woodhead excels, so he will likely lose touches in 3rd down situations while Yeldon will not. Yes, Gordon is in a better offense, but I still like Yeldon better. In dynasty leagues, I like Gurley at number one, but I still like Yeldon better than Gordon as I feel the Jaguars' offense will be ascending over the next couple seasons.
Beyond that trio, the next two rookie backs worth consideration in re-draft leagues are Ameer Abdullah and Tevin Coleman. For me, I much prefer Abdullah. His athleticism is off the charts, and the offensive coordinator in Detroit is the same guy who oversaw the Saints' offense that made dangerous multi-purpose weapons out of Reggie Bush and Darren Sproles. The Falcons' defense still isn't very good, so game flow might lead to less carries for Coleman. In dynasty leagues, if your league counts points for receptions, I'd even consider Abdullah ahead of Melvin Gordon despite Gordon's clear year one advantage.
As for the rest of th group, I would rank them in this order in re-draft: Matt Jones, David Cobb, Duke Johnson, David Johnson, and Jay Ajayi. Anyone who has watched the Redskins in the preseason has seen that they won't be very good. Alfred Morris gives them nothing in the passing game. Jones has been exceptional this preseason, and is likely to eventually replace Morris in the long-term. He'll have a nice role this year that should only increase going forward. Cobb is still looking at splitting work with Bishop Sankey in Tennessee, and while Sankey has looked improved thus far in the preseason, I still expect Cobb to be a factor. Duke and David Johnson both look tabbed for change-of-pace and some passing down work. I like Duke's situation better because his team looks more likely to play from behind. With Ajayi, although the Dolphins have refused to give Lamar Miller a full workload over the past couple years, Ajayi may have to work his way past Damien WIlliams to even get backup work.
Top dynasty RB options after the top 5 in order: Matt Jones, Duke Johnson, David Johnson, Josh Robinson, Zach Zenner
WIDE RECEIVERS:
While the dynasty rankings at WR are bit up in the air, the re-draft ranks have a very clear top two guys: Amari Cooper and Nelson Agholor, and I prefer Agholor. The Eagles' offense is a juggernaut, and Agholor is ticketed for the role vacated by Jeremy Maclin's departure. The Raiders, meanwhile, are still trying to fight their way back to respectability. Both guys are legitimate borderline 2/3 WRs for this year, but I just like Agholor better because of the situation. Cooper could catch 90 balls this year, but Agholor won't be far behind and has much better TD potential. In dynasty leagues, it's a coin flip for me. I'd still prefer Agholor, but I think Cooper is slightly more talented.
The 2nd tier of rookie WRs in re-draft leagues consists of Devin Funchess, DeVante Parker, Dorial Green-Beckham, and Breshad Perriman, and I would draft them in that order. Funchess should be a legitimate WR3 with the upside for more in Kelvin Benjamin's role. Parker could be a WR3 if he's able to get himself healthy and carve out a role. It might take a few weeks for him to start making an impact as he battles back from a foot injury however. Green-Beckham might have the highest ceiling of any receiver in this class, but he has several red flags that make him a long-term risk. There's a clear path to DGB earning a big role in the Titans' passing game, but it's far from a certainty. As a result, Green-Beckham is a WR4 for this season, although he's being typically drafted lower than that. Breshad Perriman is also a WR4 this year, but due to his injury issues this preseason, he's a boom or bust option for this year. If healthy, he should be the number 2 WR on the Ravens after Steve Smith.
As for the rest of the WR class, the only other guys I'd strongly think about rostering in re-draft leagues are Tyler Lockett in Seattle and Ty Montgomery in Green Bay. There isn't much on the Seattle depth chart to overcome, and Lockett has been fantastic this preseason. He's a good WR5/6 option in PPR leagues who could really surprise. Montgomery is worthy of WR 4/5 status just on the potential that he wins the WR3 job in an Aaron Rodgers offense. His dynasy outlook is hurt by the impending return of Jordy Nelson next season. Phillip Dorsett could make an impact in Indy, but he has to beat out Donte Moncrief for the third WR role to do so. Kevin White may miss the whole season in Chicago, and Devin Smith will open the season dinged up for the Jets. Neither is worth a draft pick in re-draft leagues. Jaelen Strong has a shot to earn a role with the Texans, but he's yet to make much of an impact in the preseason.
Top 12 Dynasty WRs in order: Nelson Agholor, Amari Cooper, Dorial Green-Beckham, DeVante Parker, Breshad Perriman, Kevin White, Devin Funchess, Tyler Lockett, Phillip Dorsett, Jaelen Strong,Ty Montgomery, Darren Waller
Other names to know: DeAndre Smelter, Chris Conley, Sammie Coates, Tre McBride, Kenny Bell
TIGHT ENDS:
The tight end position is typically useless in terms of rookie fantasy production, and this year looks to be about the same. The one rookie TE to be aware of is Maxx Williams in Baltimore. WIth Dennis Pitta still out and Owen Daniels gone to Denver, Williams will be expected to step in and play right away. I'd peg him as a low end TE2. I can't endorse banking on him to play a big role on your fantasy team. Outside of him, there isn't much. MyCole Pruitt might have a couple nice games in an H-Back role in Minnesota, but he isn't worth a draft pick, and Clive Walford could earn some meaningful playing time in Oakland, but that makes him maybe top-25 at the position.
Top 5 Dynasty TEs in order: Maxx Williams, MyCole Pruitt, Clive Walford, Tyler Kroft, Jesse James
That's it for the rookie preview. Hopefully it gives you a better grasp on who some of the guys are out there that you might not know much about if you don't watch much college football. Good luck with your fantasy drafts, and make sure to check back in each week for the Rookie Report to know what to do with your rookies on a weekly basis. And remember, have fun. Fantasy football is just a game.
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- Written by David Biggs
Well it's here, folks. The 2015 fantasy football season is upon us. Here at drinkfive we're happy to bring you our preseason rankings, freshly baked from the oven. We'll continue to update these rankings over the coming weeks leading up to the start of the 2015 regular NFL season.
Some quick notes: Jamaal Charles grades out as our #1 overall draft pick in standard leagues - he is still very much the focal point of the Chiefs' offense, and the recent injury to backup Knile Davis can only play to Charles' advantage. Regardless, expect the world from a guy that has consistently put up the kind of points on a weekly basis that wins leagues. Newcomer C.J. Anderson on the Broncos is projected to be the bellcow back in Denver and has crept up to #3 overall in standard leagues. We're betting that Anderson builds on his excellent performances in 2014 to be a fantasy standout this season. Wide receiver Odell Beckham is out of control. Based on our ranking algorithm, he should be the #1 WR selected in standard leagues and should be all types of fun to watch play in 2015. Rob Gronkowski is leaps and bounds better than any other tight end in the league and will likely go toward the end of the first round in most fantasy leagues. Most other tight ends below Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham are not valuable enough in our opinion to reach for early, so we would recommend waiting on that position to grab one or two of the lesser known guys like Travis Kelce or Jordan Cameron instead. Quarterbacks are a crap-shoot after Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers, but if one of them falls to you early it's going to be hard not to pull the trigger!
Best of luck drafting in 2015, check back here often to see our updated preseason rankings for the 2015 season or catch up with us and other fantasy football experts at FantasyPros. To the 'ship!
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- Written by Jason Evans
The fantasy season is almost upon us, and every year we like to take the preseason to break down each position individually. We’ll be starting this year with the Quarterbacks. This article will focus on QB’s that have good draft value, and others that do not. Remember, this isn’t exactly who’s going to land in or out of the top 10 this year, but it’s who you can target, or avoid, in a draft to get yourself the best roster.
For a more in-depth discussion, check out our podcast from 8/18/15, The QB Show!
QB’s that have good value:
Can Palmer start all 16 games this season?
Carson Palmer - #11 on our rankings, Palmer is an excellent QB, when healthy. The Cardinals have a decent offense which was able to move the ball when Palmer was out last year. Their defense will make sure the offense gets plenty of possessions. Palmer has an ECR of 19, giving him the largest gap of any QB on our list. His ADP of 22 (153 overall) means that you can take him at the end of nearly every draft, and have a guy that we think should finish just outside the top 10.
Palmer Targets: Fitz!, Michael Floyd, Jaron & John Brown, Andre Ellington, CJ?K, Whoever starts at TE.
Relevant stats: Arizona threw the ball 35.1 times per game in 2014, right in the middle of the pack for the NFL. Palmer is on a 3-year trend upward (extrapolating last year's stats over 16 games). The Cardinals' window is closing fast, look for them to pull out all the stops to make a Super Bowl run this year.
Tom Brady - #8 on our rankings, he has an ECR of 14, mostly, I suspect, due to his looming suspension. If he plays all 16, I think he’ll go up a bit. Overall, I think we underestimate Tom every year, and every year he’s playing in January, so he must be doing something right. What we do know about Brady is that he has Gronk, and it doesn’t really matter who else is there.
Brady Targets: Edelman, Gronk!, Tyms, Amendola, Bolden/White/Blount/Gray, Reggie Wayne (New!), LaFell
Relevant stats: The Pats threw the ball 38.6 times per game last year, 7th most in the league. Brady has thrown over 30 TD's in 4 of the last 5 seasons, and usually keeps the INT's low. Don't be fooled by the lack of targets, it's never bothered Brady.
Tony Romo - #5 on our rankings, he has an ECR of 9 and an ADP of 8. Romo’s value is going up, he’s currently being drafted about 1 round higher than his overall ranking would put him, however we rank him even higher, so there is still value to be had here. Romo is a tough QB leading what is likely to be a top 5 offense in the NFL this season. Romo is the highest tier QB with a good value rating.
Romo Targets: Dez Bryant (over 135 targets each of the last 3 years), Witten, Williams, Beasley, Randle/Dunbar/McFadden
Relevant stats: Last year, Dallas threw the ball only 29.2 times per game, the second fewest in the league. Romo made the most of the times he did throw the ball, leading the league in completion % (69.9), TD % (7.8) and yards per pass attempt (8.5). He has been trending up in TD's and down in INT's over the last 3 years. Romo is playing better than he ever has and will need to pick up the slack after Demarco Murray's departure. Don't worry about his age either, he may be over 35, but he's only started 20 more games than Rodgers, so he has plenty of football left in him.
This guy got $65 million...
Philip Rivers - #10 on our rankings, his ECR is 13, so we’re not too far off there, but it’s a game of inches, isn’t it? Rivers just got a huge new contract, with something like $65 mil GUARANTEED. That means it’s his job to now go out and prove to the team that he deserves it. The Chargers’ ground game got a big upgrade this season, drafting Melvin Gordon #14 overall. This should take a bit of pressure off Rivers. Rivers had 31 TD’s, but also 18 INT’s. He’s generally not that errant of a passer, so if he can cut down on the picks, he will finish in the top 10 yet again.
Rivers Targets: Allen, Malcom Floyd, Jacoby Jones, Stevie Johnson (dave’s guy!), Gates/Green, Gordon/Woodhead/Oliver
Relevant stats: San Diego threw the ball 35.9 times per game last season, 14th in the league, but threw it 43 times per game in the last 3 games, two of which were against division opponents. Rivers has gone over 4000 yards in 6 of the last 7 seasons and over 30 TD's in 5 of them. He's wonderfully consistent and can be counted on to be in the top 12 every years. Pick him up when he's available late. Oh yea, the new contract doesn't hurt his outlook any.
QB’s that are overvalued:
Colin Kaepernick – Kaepernick is ranked 22 on our sheets and has an ECR of 15. He won’t be drafted as a starter in standard leagues anyways, but I wanted to just reiterate how much we do not like the 49ers offense this year. The rankings, thankfully, agree with us. His overall stats for the last 3 years have been underwhelming, so let someone else reach for him as their backup QB.
Kaepernick Targets: Boldin, Smith, Davis, Hyde/Bush – See why we aren’t hyped?
Relevant stats: the 49ers threw the ball only 30.4 times per game last year, good for 29th in the league. Kaepernick already only completes 60.1% of his passes through his career, so you need to rely on his feet to get you big points. The problem there is that his rushing TD's have gone from 5 to 4 to 1. Are you ready to bet it's going back up to 5? His Int's are the other alarming trend, going up each year that he's been in the league.
Cam's job got a lot harder with Benjamin going down.
Cam Newton – Newton has a rank of 13 on our sheet, but an ECR of 7. He’s clearly favored by pundits and fans alike, but our rankings sheet is not so high on him. Newton has slightly regressed in his stat line every year since he broke into the league back in 2011. Even though it may “feel” like Newton is due to rebound back to what he had his rookie year, his risk is not worth the price you have to pay. His ceiling is actually rather low, especially considering he will run less and less as he gets older. It’s not worth it, in my opinion, to draft a guy as the 7th best QB when he really only has a shot at being #5 at the very highest.
Newton Targets: Benjamin, Ginn, Funchess, Cotchery, Corey Brown, Olsen, Stewart/Tolbert/Whittaker
Relevant stats: Carolina threw the ball 34.1 times per game last season, but Newton only has a career 59.5 completion %. Newton has also only thrown the ball about 31 times per game in his career, so I expect his pass attempts to stay flat, at best. Newton was only the 16th best fantasy QB last year, right above our buddy Kaepernick. At least he's above the Andy Dalton line.
Ryan Tannehill - #14 in our rankings, Tannehill is a guy who we have been pumping up all year, and it looks like we’re not the only ones. His ECR is 10, so the experts like him, and his ADP of 13 indicates that he hasn’t quite caught up to his ECR in the rest of the fantasy world. Here’s the thing though, Tannehill is the QB who is being hyped as the best value or biggest jump from last year. News like this spreads like wildfire and the draft season is now in full swing. Just this past weekend, I was in a draft where he was the 7th overall QB taken, late in the 6th round.
Tannehill Targets: Landry, Cameron, Jennings, Parker, Miller, Stills
Relevant stats: Miami was in the top half of the league, throwing the ball 37.2 times per game in 2014. Tannehill's stats have generally been trending up over his first three years in the league. They just got Jordan Cameron and drafted Devante Parker. Yes, things are looking up for Ryan Tannehill, but the secret's out. He's got a good shot at going too early in your draft. Give a silent nod and just move on. If he's available closer to his ADP of 13, then go for it.
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- Written by David Biggs
Over the years, many different kinds of draft strategies have come about for fantasy football leagues - I've tried to lay out the basics below for a few of the draft strategies that I see more frequently, and posed some questions that we try to answer on the podcast. Do you have any comments or insights to add? Feel free to leave them in the comments section!
(Listen to the Fantasy Football Podcast, 8/11/15: 5 Draft Strategies to Consider)
Best Available
It may seem perfectly obvious to some, but one very serviceable strategy during drafts is simply to take the best available player at any position that is available to you at that time. The main issue people run across when using this strategy is taking too many players at the same position. Say, for example, that the best player available on the draft board for 5 rounds in a row is a wide receiver. Should you simply continue to draft the best available player and hope to make trades later to make up any discrepancies at other positions? Should you compromise or bend your initial strategy to reach for another position that you have a bigger need at?
Zero RB
The prevailing strategy for a long time in Fantasy Football was to load up on RBs early. This was for a few reasons: RBs tended to be used as the focal point of the offense for a lot of teams (at least up until recently), RBs seemed to be more consistent than their WR counterparts on a week-to-week basis (at least up until recently) and there was a more severe drop off of talent at the position (since most teams had one particular RB that they fed the football. More recently, a lot of teams are favoring throwing the ball more consistently and using a RB-by-committee approach.
What does that information tell us? RBs are still an extremely valuable position for a fantasy football team, but recent changes to the game and to how the position is being used in the NFL have forced a shift toward WR value being closer to the top, or in some cases eclipsing the value of their more grounded counterparts. There are exceptions, and most of those involve either running backs that are also heavily involved in the passing game (Jamaal Charles & LeVeon Bell) or guys that still hold roles similar to those of the old days of smash mouth football (Marshawn Lynch, Adrian Peterson).
Going with the Zero RB strategy asks you to forego the conventional fantasy wisdom that RBs are the most important assets to a team, and instead draft top-tier WRs, a TE and possibly a QB before dipping into the RB pool and selecting a variety of low to middle end situational guys with upside. Proponents of this draft strategy tell us that the top few tiers of RBs in the draft have the highest variance and therefore should be avoided. In other words, instead of high-risk picks at the beginning of the draft, you should be selecting guys that can offer a consistently good performance on the field while leaving some of that associated risk behind. Does this kind of strategy make sense even when you have the 1st or 2nd pick? Does the idea of Zero RB drafting get more enticing in a PPR league when WRs receive a rankings boost?
Value Based
Value Based Drafting (VBD) is a term that has been around since the 90’s. It refers to a particular strategy: by analyzing player’s past performances and calculating projections for them, and determining what the baseline player at each position is, you can determine the value of a player (which, using this strategy, is not simply how many points a player can score but rather how many more points he scores at his position than other players at the same position.
For example, although QBs score a large amount of points in most leagues, they are not usually among the most valued picks during the draft because in general they have low relative value compared to other positions at the same draft pick. That’s not to say that a player such as Aaron Rodgers or Andrew Luck will not score more fantasy points at the end of the year than other QBs, but the difference between their points and the QB baseline will be smaller than players like Marshawn Lynch relative to the RB baseline or Antonio Brown relative to the WR baseline. The problem is that these determinations rely on projected statistics, which are only estimations even if they are based on factual data.
Taking a look at the VBD data from 2014, for example, we can see that Rob Gronkowski was 40 points higher than the next best tight end in 2014 (Jimmy Graham). This tells us that if you can’t get Gronkowski in a draft, you should wait longer to select a tight end because their relative value decreases after Gronk. The same goes with Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck. If unable to land one of these two QBs last year, you were better off waiting until later rounds and instead taking players at RB and WR that would be the difference needed to win games.
Guided Tour
A strategy that I see all too often but will always encourage people to avoid. Far too many times, people walk into a draft with a set strategy in their head – not a strategy based on player value or lack thereof, but with a strict plan of what positions to target and in what order. I used to do this too, when I first started playing fantasy football. I would look at the previous year’s performance, or what positions seemed to have the best players available at the top rounds and create a roadmap in my head for the rest of the draft. RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, QB.. or WR, RB, RB, WR, RB, RB, WR, etc.
It makes sense in a very shallow sense. This also applies to people that draft a starting lineup and then begin to select players for their bench. Regardless of which strategy you choose to adopt, you should never, ever have a preconceived idea of which rounds that you want to draft specific positions in. The draft itself should dictate that. Besides that, you’re more likely to succumb to picking a positional player at the end of a run if you are thinking in this way. Don’t do it!
Late-Round QB
The Late-Round, or “Zero QB” strategy has become a popular one recently as well. There are so many quarterbacks in this league that produce at a consistent level, that the drop-off after the first few is not very large. In this case, doesn’t it make sense to wait until later rounds when you get take someone like a Ryan Tannehill, Eli Manning or Philip Rivers? Those guys all have top 10 potential but at a 9th or 10th round price in a standard league.
This is a bit of an offshoot of both VBD and Zero RB strategies, as the value in picking a quarterback not named Aaron Rodgers or Andrew Luck is not deemed high enough and it makes more sense to fill those slots with players that provide more of an advantage in a match-up. Just for example, say that you’re playing against someone that took a QB in the 4th round (Drew Brees, for example). Well, instead of Brees there you could have had someone like Brandin Cooks or DeAndre Hopkins. Signing on to this particular theory is as easy as saying that you would rather have DeAndre Hopkins and Ryan Tannehill than Drew Brees and Kevin White. I would. Would you?
Tips from 'Beer4TheBeerGod' – big contributor to the /r/fantasyfootball subreddit:
1. Know thy league. If your league uses PPR and your cheat sheet is for standard scoring you're putting yourself at a disadvantage. Know your roster requirements, number of teams, starting lineups, and all of your scoring rules. Things like 2QB, keepers, superflex (which is a nice way of saying 2QB with the option to fail), big play scoring, and six point passing touchdowns can dramatically alter how you draft. You should also know your opponents and their tendencies. Is one player a massive homer? Consider how that will affect his draft strategy. Does your league tend to draft QBs super early? Exploit that by picking up valuable skill positions and going with a streaming QB approach. This also applies to whatever sources your opponents use to draft, such as the default rankings.
2. The level of risk you are willing to take should correlate with the round of the draft. Your early picks are not for flyers, they're for reliable sources of points that can form the core of your team. I've come to be very risk averse in my early picks, mostly because of the damage done by drafting guys like Darren McFadden or Toby Gerhart. Look at the history of your player and any disruptive factors (age, usage, coaching change, team change) that could increase the uncertainty of the prediction. I'm also not a fan of taking rookies in early rounds for this reason.
3. Know the opportunity cost of your draft choices. Opportunity cost is the essentially the price you pay for the road not travelled. In fantasy terms it's the value of the players you won't draft because of your choice, either because your positional need is decreased or because someone else will draft them. This is one of the core philosophies behind value based drafting, but it's more than just points. It requires you to not only know how you will draft, but ideally also your opponents. Will you drafting player X force your opponent to draft player Y, or will that guy still be around on your next turn? The greatest feeling in the world is when you make your pick and someone after you cries out in anguish.
4. Develop your own tools for draft day and practice with them. I started making BeerSheets because I wanted something I could print out, bring with me wherever I went, and know that I could follow it to create my team. It needed to be fast, easy to read, and provide enough information to make the right decision without overwhelming you with data. Some drafts let you bring computers, others are just yourself and your mind. Whatever the rules, make sure you have the tools available so that you can stay on top of the draft order and always get the most value.
5. Tiers are superior to rankings. There is no way to predict that player X will do better than player Y with enough fidelity to rank them before the season starts. This is why I'm such a fan of using tiers to determine the relative projections of players. Realistically if two players are ranked right next to each other then there probably isn't enough of a difference to matter and you should be considering other qualities such as historic performance, opportunity, injury risk, competition, and upside.
6. Don't be a homer, but it's okay to have multiple guys on the same team. Aside from bye weeks it's not that big of a deal. What you don't want to do is be predictable enough for someone else to exploit your tendencies. The other side of this is drafting players from your team's rival. Can you stomach having someone you hate on your team? If the value is there consider swallowing your pride. Moral victories are for losers.
7. Don't be afraid to reach. The best experts in Fantasy Football average a 60% accuracy. Remember that the numbers are just guesses, and if you have a gut feeling there's nothing wrong with going with it. In the end it's your team and you should be happy with it.
8. The less predictable a position, the later that position should be drafted. This means drafting kickers and DSTs very late unless your scoring rules are weird enough to require a special strategy. Unless your draft rules require that you fill out your roster then don't bother getting a kicker. Use that last pick on a total flyer and see if anything changes leading up to Week 1. Just don't forget to pick up a kicker off the WW before your first game.
9. The maximum value you will get for your trade bait is the draft pick you just wasted, so don't even bother. Some people exercise a strategy of picking someone up with the express purpose of trading them immediately. Remember, the four QBs you cleverly picked up even though you didn't need them were passed over by everyone else. You just sacrificed a team need for a lottery ticket that isn't likely to pay off. This is a particularly egregious mistake in the top half of the draft. This is different from drafting a late round flyer and hoping they turn out to be a sleeper, which is sound draft strategy.
10. You can lose your league in the draft, but you win it in the waiver wire. No matter how well or poorly you draft, that's only a part of the game. Once the draft is done the real game begins. Follow the waiver wire religiously, and don't be afraid to drop your late round scrubs for something more promising if you get more information. I'm less enthusiastic about preseason trades unless you have access to new information or you're fleecing a homer.
11. Mock until you can draft in your sleep. Mock drafting is a fantastic resource. Not only is it fairly fun, but it also helps you see how players will be taken and understand trends. If you can get to the point where you can instantly see a reach or a steal then when the real draft happens you'll be far more prepared.
- Details
- Written by Jason Evans
The AFC south had 2 of the top 3 picks in this year’s draft, meaning that half of the division was really, really bad last year. The Colts did manage to make it to the AFC championship game, going through the Bengals and Broncos before a “deflating” loss in New England. This year, everyone looks to improve their team, and the Houston Texans are going to be featured on this season’s Hard Knocks, starting August 11th.
Check our breakdown of the AFC South
Fantasy Football Podcast, 8/4/15, AFC South Spotlight: 2015 Fantasy Preview
Indianapolis Colts (11-5):
Add/Re-sign – 
Frank Gore, RB – Signed as a FA, 8.5mil in guarantees, big things are expected.
Andre Johnson, WR – Signed as a FA, 3 year, 21 mil contract.
Andrew Luck, QB – Club exercised his 5th year option, no brainer of the century.
Phillip Dorsett, WR – Drafted 1st round, 29th overall in a position they already have depth.
Josh Robinson, RB – Drafted in the 6th round, gets lots of MJD comparisons.
Departures –
Trent Richardson, RB – Good riddance! The ploddingist of the plodders has gone where RB’s go to die.
Reggie Wayne, WR – A former Colts superstar is left on the outside looking in, and still looking for a new team.
Issues:
The Colts are second only to the Packers in recovering from losing the best QB in franchise history. In 2011, they chanted “Suck for Luck”. This year they are Super Bowl contenders, and the favorites in some minds in the AFC. The main reason for this is Andrew Luck, a guy who has improved in each season so far in his young Career. Last season he threw for over 4700 yards and 40 TD’s (league leader), rushed for 3 TD’s and lead his team to their third straight 11-5 regular season.
So, we know that Luck is going to be great, but who’s going to be the beneficiary of his arm? Last year, T.Y. Hilton lead the team in receiving, netting over 1300 yards on 82 receptions. I expect a similar output from him this season, despite the fact that the WR core is now stacked in Indy. The additions of Andre Johnsonand Phillip Dorsett, along with Donte Moncreif, Griff Whalen and Duron Carter means that Luck is going to have plenty of secondary targets to choose from. It’s hard to predict who else will be fantasy relevant, but I suspect that Andre Johnson will rise to the top and Phillip Dorsett will be given a huge chance to contribute.
Running Back has been the weak link of the Colts offense for a while now. They have finally put the worst trade of 2013 behind them and Trent Richardson has moved on to Oakland. In his place, they have given Frank Gore, a 31-year-old RB who has been under 1000 yards only once in the last 10 years, a bunch of guaranteed money. Gore has only Dan Herron and Vick Ballard behind him, so it’s clear that the Colts plan on giving him at least as much work in previous seasons, so expect around 275 carries from a healthy Frank Gore. He has had his role in the passing game in San Fran reduced in the last few seasons, but he’s been a big feature in the years before that. Pay attention during preseason to how much Luck throws to him out of the backfield. Gore has an ADP of 13 (overall 28) and could reasonably live up to that spot. I’m skeptical that rookie Josh Robinson has fantasy value in his first year based on the value that the Colts are placing on Gore.
Tight End might be the most “toss-up” position on the team, though it seems that Dwayne Allen will be taking the primary role, over Coby Fleener. Allen is a more complete player and is entering the season as the #1 TE on the team. I don’t expect anything more than a ceiling of low-top 10 for Allen, as there are just too many fast targets for Luck to hit and not enough work at the TE position. If Allen can put up the same TD’s as last season, he will find his way into the top 10 (12 last year).
Houston Texans (9-7):
Add/Re-sign – 
Ryan Mallett, QB – Signed to extension, will compete for starting job.
Brian Hoyer, QB – Signed from Cleveland, will compete for starting Job.
Vince Wilfork, NT – As if they needed more help on their D-line.
Chris Polk, RB – Suddenly in the mix with the Foster injury.
Cecil Shorts, WR – Drink five! He was a FA, signed a 2 year, $6 mil contract.
Jaelen Strong, WR – Third round pick by the Texans.
Departures –
Andre Johnson, WR – Released by the team, signed by their toughest division opponents.
Case Keenum, QB – Traded to StL, they’re starting over at QB this year.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB – The smartest man in the NFL never gets to stay somewhere for very long, it seems. Traded to the Jets.
Issues:
The Texans will be featured on HBO’s Hard Knocks series this season, which to me, traditionally means a couple of things. First, any drama on the team will be exaggerated ten-fold. Secondly, these players are likely to be over-valued come draft time. Most people are not exposed to EVERYONE, so the players they are exposed to a lot will have an artificially inflated value. Finally, HBO will stress the biggest positional competition, which is QB this season, so that means more drama, more “at home” scenes and more uncomfortable cut scenes.
QB is definitely a position that is up in the air on this team. Everyone knows that QB is the most important position on the offense, and everyone knows that the Texans don’t have one yet. This puts far too much pressure on their running game and defense to be perfect. This year, it looks like camp will feature a competition between Ryan Mallett and Brian Hoyer. Hoyer started with the first team reps, but Mallett has also been taking reps with the starters. This battle won’t likely be decided until after the third preseason game has concluded. Even once a QB is chosen, I wouldn’t consider either to be a starter in any 10-12 man leagues.
The RB position, once secured by Arian Foster, is now up for grabs. Foster suffered a groin injury on 8/3 and it will require surgery and he will likely be on the IR/designated to return list to begin the season, meaning he won’t be eligible to return until week 10. This leaves a huge, warrior-poet sized hole in our season of Hard Knocks AND the Texans backfield. Alfred Blue, Jonathan Grimes and Chris Polk will battle in camp to get the starter’s role. Blue will be the favorite to get the job, as he’s filled in for Foster in the past already, but it may end up being RBBC once the season starts. I’m just sad that we’re losing the guy who has tweets that warn us of the dangers of bacteria in your gums, confessions of stolen towels from Trump hotels and his disinterest in Seinfeld. Look at the news over the next few days, the Texans will be shopping for a free agent to add to this RB group.
The WR position has changed a bit in Houston, mostly since Andre Johnson will not be there for the first time in 12 years. Filling his shoes will be DeAndre Hopkins, the clear cut #1 WR on the team. Hopkins is known for catching nearly every catchable ball thrown his way. Hopkins has what it takes to be an elite WR in this league, he just needs a QB to get him the ball. Hopkins has an ADP of 13 (WR) and 29 overall. With even adequate QB play, he can live up to those numbers. Meanwhile, Cecil Shorts will be lining up opposite him. His adp is all the way down at 72 (WR) and 186 (overall), basically undraftable. I’m all for taking a flyer on him and making everyone drink five at the end of the draft, but don’t expect a ton of fantasy production out of Jaelen Strong or Cecil Shorts unless the QB gets a big improvement.
At TE, the Texans have Garrett Graham, (not Jimmy’s little brother). Graham has had a few spots of good play, but hasn’t been used enough to really be noticed, especially when he was behind Owen Daniels. It looks like Graham is going to move into the first string spot at TE, but your guess is as good as mine as to whether he will translate into a top 10 fantasy TE. There’s just too many questions at the QB position to answer it at this time.
Jacksonville Jaguars (3-13):
Add/Re-sign – 
Julius Thomas, TE – The new juice got a 5 year contract as a free agent from Jacksonville.
Bernard Pierce, RB – Claimed off waivers from Baltimore.
T.J. Yeldon, RB – 2nd round pick (36th overall).
Rashad Greene, WR – 5th round pick, 139th overall.
Departures –
Cecil Shorts, WR – Left for Texas.
Ace Sanders, WR – Released in mid-July.
Issues:
As is tradition, the Jaguars lost their first round pick to injury – Dante Fowler tore his ACL just days after being drafted. The Jaguars did have a great draft, despite the injury, picking up T.J. Yeldon in the 2nd and Guard A.J. Cann in the third, a guy who will probably start in week 1. With some added protection and tools for Blake Bortles, I expect him to begin the process of getting better. Bortles left a lot to be desired, but he was a constant presence on a team that hasn’t had a real QB since David Gerrard. Bortles is basically the same size as Ben Roethlisberger, and big QB’s have been having a lot of success in the league lately. Bortles has the potential to be an impact player for Jacksonville, but he needs a lot of work to get there. Bortles may be a relevant QB2 in leagues that start 2 QB’s, but even that’s a stretch, for now.
At WR, the situation is rather muddy. I hate to say it, but the departure of Cecil Shorts is likely to go unnoticed in Jacksonville. They have lots of young guys, but nobody who seems to want to step up into the main role. Marqise Lee, Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns, Rashad Greene & company are all going to see some of their targets go to Julius Thomas, easily the most talented pass catcher on the team (even if his greatest talent is having played with Peyton Manning). There isn’t much here other than bench depth. If someone goes down, it’s possible that another player gets a big enough role that he’s worth starting in a WR3 role, but I just don’t see the garbage time points that Jacksonville has been known for in the past. They are a team that is slowly improving, and as a result, is less likely to be getting blown out week after week.
The only place where the Jags are relatively loaded would be at RB. Rookie T.J. Yeldon is sitting on top of the depth chart and should get a decent amount of carries. Toby Gerhart will resume his backup role, one that he did well with in Minnesota (though it means zero fantasy production). Denard Robinson should continue to be a wild card and third down back and have limited PPR production value, though that increases if Yeldon can’t get on the field. This rbbc will irritate fantasy owners for sure, but there may be just enough value here for people to keep coming back.
As for the TE position, I feel that Julius Thomas is still a guy who can be in the top 10 TE’s at the end of the year easily. His ADP is 10 for TE’s and 99 overall, so I see some good value here. Be patient and scoop up Thomas late, or let someone else reach for him.
Tennessee Titans (2-14):
Add/Re-sign - 
Marcus Mariota (QB, Rookie)
Dorial Green-Beckham (WR, Rookie)
Brian Orakpo (OL, from WAS)
Dick LeBeau (Assistant Head Coach, from PIT)
Hakeem Nicks (WR, from IND)
Harry Douglas (WR, from ATL)
David Cobb (RB, Rookie)
Departures:
Jake Locker (QB, FA)
Shonn Greene (RB, FA)
Nate Washington (WR, to HOU)
Outlook:
The Titans needed a reboot pretty badly after a terrible 2-14 season in 2014. So that’s what they did. And their offseason moves have been heralded by many as being among the best in the league. Starting from under center, The Titans drafted mobile QB Marcus Mariota at #2 overall to be the new franchise QB in Tennessee. Good riddance Jake Locker! Move over, Zach Mettenberger. Mariota will take the helm of this team in 2015 and with a huge amount of rope as well. As far as how he’ll perform from a fantasy perspective, comparisons to the athleticism and rushing ability of Colin Kaepernick have been made, but Mariota is a more skilled passer out of the box. We expect there to be some stumbling out of the gate, but Mariota should be a serviceable QB2 with a high ceiling going forward. He’ll be very interesting to watch, but unfortunately the rest of the team around him is not good enough to warrant drafting him yet in standard leagues.
Kendall Wright fell off the map last year (not entirely his fault, mostly due to inconsistent QB play) after putting up some impressive stats in his 2nd year (94 receptions for 1079 yards and 2 TDs). Maybe he doesn’t gel very well with Ken Whisenhunt’s offensive scheme? Regardless, Wright is the #1 option for the Titans and will likely finish with an improved, but still mediocre stat line this year. His ADP is in the 15th round and he’s likely off the radar in redraft leagues, though there is value there still in PPR and dynasty leagues as a WR4/5. After Justin Hunter’s arrest for felony assault, it looks like the #2 spot in Tennessee comes down to a battle between newcomer Dorial Green-Beckham and former Falcon Harry Douglas. Although Green-Beckham is the better raw talent, I’m betting that the veteran Douglas gets the start from day 1. The 6’5”, 237 lb (reported to camp at a stunning 246 lbs) rookie could be an outstanding receiver in the NFL eventually – but for now he is still a project. Lest I forget, Hakeem Nicks is now on the Titans. Eh, his production has declined for four years straight and Tennessee is not exactly the place where you go to revive a dying career. Not expecting much relevance from Nicks.
After the wheels fell off of Shonn Greene, the Titans parted ways with him and look to use a committee at RB in 2015, made up of Bishop Sankey, David Cobb and Dexter McCluster. In his 2nd year, Sankey has been getting the first team reps at Titans’ camp but is looking as mediocre as he did last year (152 rushes for 569 yards and 2 TDs). The magic 8-ball says that all of these running backs will be involved in the offense, making it a frustrating experience for fantasy footballers everywhere. I do think that RB David Cobb may have a bright future in the league, but that is more of a far-off glimmer at this point. Stats from this rag tag group of backs will be disappointing, at best.
Tight end Delanie Walker has enjoyed two fairly productive years in 2013 and 2014 (most recently putting up 63 receptions for 890 yards and 4 TDs) and his ADP is somewhere between the 11th and 12th rounds in standard drafts. With a new QB and only scattered receiving talent on the field otherwise, Walker’s role should only improve in 2015. Many experts have him ranked at the tail end of the top 10 TEs for the upcoming season and I have to agree. He’ll be receiving a lot of dump-off passes from Mariota. Anthony Fasano seems like a great guy, but he’s not fantasy relevant.
- Details
- Written by Tad Bukowski
Thoughts do not get too much more random than this!
The process of studying for this year’s fantasy football drafts is in full effect. While going through some of the trends of drafts from yester-year, the time spent looking over when kickers were selected was equivalent to the amount spent watching The ESPY’s over the last 15 years – it didn’t happen.
Then out of nowhere, the unthinkable happened. For the first time since, um, ever, some thought needs to be put into kickers this year!
Pretty sure you’re laughing right now…so I’ll wait …
…
…
OK.
Hard to believe, but it’s true! I’m not saying that you need to spend hours upon hours comparing bye weeks, looking at who plays who during fantasy playoff weeks, analyzing field temperatures and average wind gusts at every stadium. But keep this in mind, with the recent rule changes, the extra point is no longer a sure thing.
Coach’s now have the option of kicking the extra point, which was moved back to the 15 yard line, or try for a two point conversion from the two yard line. Quick analysis says that an extra point from the 15 really isn’t that big of an adjustment.
What you need to look at though is the team’s willingness to go for two more often, which would obviously take fantasy points away from your kicker. When deciding on which kicker to take, which still should be the last round of your draft), look at the tendencies of the team they kick for.
Two teams jump out immediately as having the chance to take a few points away from their kicker –
New England – This will probably be the biggest impact in kicker decisions as Stephen Gostkowski has been one of, if not the first kicker taken in most drafts. The chance to score more points and add embarrassment to an embarrassing situation has always been a characteristic of the Patriots and head coach Bill Belichick. Normally I would say that this would definitely be something to keep an eye on when the Pats play the Jets…and maybe fellow division rivals Miami and Buffalo, but with everything that has gone on now with the deflate-a-gate shenanigans, I am sure that Belichick and maybe even owner Robert Kraft from what it sounds like will want to stick it to the league as a whole this season…if given the opportunity.
Philadelphia – Do YOU know what Chip Kelly is thinking? Because I’m pretty sure that he isn’t too sure himself. All that we know for sure is that Kelly loves his high powered offense he brought from Oregon and he has roughly 14 quarterbacks on his roster…one of which being Tim Tebow. Though being the field general for a full football field is not exactly Tebow’s forte, a two-yard field might be right up his alley. Utilizing Tebow in a two point conversion situation may keep opposing defense’s on their toes enough to generate a high conversion percentage. This should bump Eagles kicker Cody Parkey’s ranking down a few spots.
No one has given this much attention to kickers since Adam Sandler. With the new PAT rules, kickers may become even more lonesome than even Sandler had thought.