Fantasy Football / NFL
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- Written by Shawn Foss
Welcome to this special DFS focused edition of the Rookie Report! I’ll have the normal Rookie Report out later this week, but this week’s Thursday night game doesn’t have any rookies you should be considering for your season-long lineup, and probably shouldn’t consider for any larger slate DFS tournaments either. With that in mind I wanted to do something a little special this week and give you a little intel on each of the rookies suiting up for the Giants and Eagles in case you’re playing the Thursday night showdown DFS slate. The prices are pretty low on most of these guys, so if you find the right one to play it can give you extra cap space to pay up for the higher priced players to go with them. Here is a rundown of each rookie playing Thursday night listed in order by their DraftKings price tag for Thursday night:
QB Jalen Hurts, PHI (DraftKings Price: $6,000): The Eagles have started to make a point to get Hurts more involved with a handful of gadget plays each week, averaging about 4 snaps per game over the last 5 weeks. Given his explosive athleticism, he can turn just a few snaps into a handful of fantasy points on the right night, but he’s not priced like a player who would only play a handful of snaps. H’s priced like a quarterback. About the only real chance he has of returning value at his price tag would be if Carson Wentz gets hurt or benched early on. I wouldn’t count on either of those happening. Even if Hurts does get extended playing time, the Giants surprisingly allow the 5th-fewest QB points per game.
Verdict: Nowhere near worth the price tag
WR John Hightower, PHI (DraftKings Price: $1,200): Hightower has played 60% of Philly’s offensive snaps in each of the last 4 weeks, and finally hit on a big play last week with a 50-yard catch against the Ravens. The expected return of DeSean Jackson is going to put a dent in his playing time this week, but I don’t expect DeSean to walk into a full-time role in his first game back. Philly may ease him back in on some sort of pitch count. Hightower’s aDOT of 21.7 for the year means the team likes to target him deep. He could produce a useful night on just a couple catches. The Giants don’t give up a ton of big passing plays, allowing just 1 completion of 40+ yards on the year, and the 8th-fewest 20+ yard completions. Hightower obviously has a low floor, but probably the highest ceiling of any of the rookies playing on Thursday.
Verdict: Boom-or bust dart throw that I’d like a bit more if his price was below $1,000
WR Austin Mack, NYG (DraftKings Price: $400): Mack seemingly came out of nowhere last week to play 75% of the offensive snaps against Washington – 6 more snaps than Golden Tate played. He was targeted only once though, and he turned that target into just 1 yard. Washington has been one of the tougher pass defenses in the league, but that still doesn’t exactly instill confidence in Mack going forward. The Eagles are a much better matchup. They rank 27th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA and allow the 7th-most points per game to opposing wide receivers (half-PPR). Mack seems to have surpassed Damion Ratley and CJ Board on the depth chart and will serve as a starter this week assuming Sterling Shepard doesn’t return from IR. Darius Slay is likely to shadow Darius Slayton in this game, so that should open up some opportunities for Golden Tate and Mack. Mack wasn’t very productive at Ohio State, never reaching 400 yards in a season in college, but you could argue it was a crowded WR group. He’s a big bodied WR that profiles as more of a possession receiver than deep threat, so he’ll need to see a bit of volume to put up many fantasy points. That volume seems unlikely to come.
Verdict: Low ceiling dart throw who could fall into a handful of points
RB Jason Huntley, PHI (DraftKings Price: $200): With the absence of Miles Sanders this week, there should be some available running back touches for the Eagles. Boston Scott will certainly assume the lead back duties. When Sanders was out in week 1, Scott and Corey Clement split the snaps 38 to 25, but at that point Huntley had only been on the team for a week. He should be more up to speed now. Clement still served as the number two back last week after Sanders went down, but knowing ahead of time that Miles won’t play could mean they make a point to get Huntley into the rotation. Doug Pederson was ecstatic to claim Huntley off waivers from Detroit before the season started, and this may be the best opportunity he’s had to get him on the field. The Giants rank 15th in run defense DVOA, and allow the 13th-most RB points per game. Huntley is an explosive speed back (4.37 forty-yard dash at his pro day) who averaged 6 yards per carry and 44.5 catches per year in his last 3 seasons at New Mexico State. If he’s able to get on the field for 15-20 snaps, He could turn out to be a bargain at his price tag.
Verdict: My favorite play of the rookies in this matchup. Very little risk with enough upside to roll the dice.
WR Quez Watkins, PHI (DraftKings Price: $200): With Jackson expected back for week 7, Watkins will be lucky if he’s on the field for more than a couple snaps. He played a season-high 15 snaps last week, but is yet to record his first target. You probably shouldn’t bet actual money that his first target and first fantasy points will come Thursday night.
Verdict: Shouldn’t be near your lineups, even at $200 price tag
That’s all I’ve got for Thursday night. Keep in mind that the optimal Thursday lineup may not include any of these guys, but with a single-game slate everyone is in play. My overall favorite plays for this game are the two defenses, Golden Tate, Boston Scott, and Jake Elliott, but the rookies are worth looking into as well. Make sure to check back for the rest of the Rookie Report later this week, hopefully your Thursday night slate bets are a success. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
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- Written by Jason Evans
Watching trends in fantasy football is a key way to measure how a player is doing and to try and predict future success - or lack thereof. This week I present to you a pair of players trending up and a pair of players trending down and attempt to extrapolate which direction to expect them to go in the future. For our purposes, a trend is a player that has gone up or down three consecutive weeks.
Trending Up
Kenyan Drake (RB-ARI) – Wk 4 @ CAR, 3.5; Wk 5 @ NYJ, 12.7; Wk 6 @ DAL, 28.4. Drake currently finds himself in a classic trending up situation where nearly all of his stats are trending in the correct direction. His carries, yardage, touchdowns, and fantasy points are all trending up. He put on a show on Monday night, running all over the busted Dallas defense, capping it off with a 69-yard rushing TD at the end of the game. Drake did what he is supposed to do against bad teams in the last two weeks and wound up as the RB2 just last week. He’s averaging 5.9 yards per carry in the last 2 games and has 3 total touchdowns as his team has put up at least 30 each week. Now Drake has some more nice matchups coming up. He’ll play 2 of his next 4 games against Seattle, who give up double digits to anyone with a respectable running game. He also has a game against Miami coming off a bye which should be a fine matchup as well. With the Cardinals offense past their early season jitters and back to their winning ways, I expect Drake to be a large part of the offense going forward and think his upward trend is a good indicator of what’s to come.
Darren Fells (TE-HOU) – Wk 4 vs MIN, 3.1; Wk 5 vs JAX, 12.7; Wk 6 @ TEN, 17.5. In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king. I’m not looking for TE magic here, just a one-eyed man…if you’ll let me stretch this metaphor. Fells is the TE5 when measuring across the last 3 games of all TEs. If you are not currently in possession of George Kittle or Travis Kelce, then it’s likely that you’re a blind resident of the TE wasteland. Fells is only owned in 32% of Fleaflicker leagues, so he’s been trending in the right direction if you’re streaming TEs. In the two games since Bill O’Brien was fired, the Texans have scored 66 points. They only had 80 points in the previous 4 games, so clearly they have identified at least part of what was broken on their offense. Fells has increased his yardage total 3 weeks in a row, and scored each of the last two weeks. He had 7 targets last week, good for third on the team. Fells has a mixed bag of matchups coming up, which means he will continue to just be a good streaming option and probably not a permanent fixture on your team. Regardless, it’s hard to find your way around the TE wasteland, best to at least go with someone who has an eye for the end zone.
Trending Down
Antonio Gibson (RB-WAS) – Wk 4 vs BAL, 20.8; Wk 5 vs LAR, 7.6; Wk 6 @ NYG, 7.5. Gibson was trending up and peaked in Week 4 with a rather good performance of 128 yards from scrimmage and 1 TD. Since then, however, his yards per carry has dropped to below 3.3 in each game. He’s seeing fewer carries and is also less effective in the passing game. Credit for his reduced workload goes to J.D. McKissic, the #2 RB in Washington. He has technically started half the games this season, and is definitely receiving a lot more attention in the passing game when compared to Gibson. The Washington offense is in QB limbo and there’s barely enough production on that team to support one fantasy WR, let alone a RB on a committee. The nature of this split has actually led to McKissic getting a larger percentage of the snaps than Gibson over the last couple of weeks. It was a nice idea, but the rookie is just not producing enough to warrant starting every week. Another week or two of this, and I expect to find him on Dave’s cutlist.
Juju Smith-Schuster (WR-PIT) – Wk 3 vs HOU, 14.3; Wk 5 vs PHI, 4.8; Wk 6 vs CLE, 1.6. On the season, Juju has not broken 70 yards and since the Steelers impromptu bye week, he is averaging a dismal 5.7 yards per reception. With the emergence of Chase Claypool and Diontae Johnson back to full health, it looks like Smith-Schuster is relegated to 3rd or 4th on the target list. The Steelers are playing well, a 5-0 start is the best they’ve had since the steel curtain of the late 70’s. There’s no need to fix what isn’t broken, so I don’t see a bounce back in store for Juju any time soon. He is still rosterable because he will have a role on this high powered offense if there are any injuries ahead of him.
(dis)Honorable Mention - Joshua Kelley (RB-LAC) – While not officially trending down by our standards, Kelley has been just utterly useless when it comes to fantasy. Justin Jackson has assumed the role of the injured Austin Ekeler, who will be back “later than sooner” according to coach Lynn.
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- Written by David Biggs
With the conclusion of Week 6, we are now almost halfway through the fantasy football regular season. The next few weeks are both crucial (getting those tough wins to secure a playoff position and tiebreakers) and difficult (bye weeks, injuries, and now CVD-IR to deal with). Best of luck as we trudge through the rankings and hopefully find some jewels in the rough to pick up from the wire or start from your bench and pull out the win in Week 7! Listen to or watch the Fantasy Finish Line podcast to stay on top of the latest news and analysis - we broadcast live on YouTube weekly on Wednesdays at 9pm CT.
Guys that jump out to me this week to overperform expectations: Drew Brees, JaMycal Hasty, Mike Williams, Rob Gronkowski, and Cincinnati Bengals (DST).
Pay attention to these rankings throughout the season, as they will continue to evolve based on the latest injury updates, news, and player analysis. Have any specific lineup questions? Feel free to tweet us @drinkfive with any of your questions or comments!
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- Written by Jason Evans
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
24.2 Points…From a Kicker
Brandon McManus was responsible for the entire scoring output of his team on Sunday, and it was enough to go into Foxboro and beat the Patriots. McManus was a perfect 6 for 6 on the day, converting 242 yards of field goals into 18 points on the board. His 24.2 fantasy points made him the 6th highest scoring non-QB player of the week so far. Elsewhere, other kickers are continuing to kick butt. Younghoe Koo went 4/4 on field goals and 4/4 on extra points for a cool 20.1 points. Koo is the second-best kicker this year in terms of points per game and is very consistent. His lowest game is 8.5 points, which was his only game below 10 points all season. Then you have Justin Tucker, perhaps the most famous fantasy kicker in the game. He’s missed just one of his 34 total kicking attempts this season. His 17.7 points definitely were critical in leading at least one fantasy team (mine) to victory.
3 of the Top 10 Fantasy WRs
Three of the top 10 fantasy WRs by points in Week 6 are rookies. Leading the way is Justin Jefferson, who once again finds himself in the discussion for top WRs of the week. His 9 receptions for 166 yards and 2 TDs mark the third time this season he has broken the 100-yard mark. Jefferson is now the WR4 on the season, and he and Adam Thielen (WR2) are stepping up as the NFL's biggest power combo at WR. Last week’s WR leader, Chase Claypool, had a nice encore performance with 81 yards from scrimmage and another TD. Claypool is now leading his team in both receiving yards and receiving touchdowns. Finally, we have Tee Higgins rounding out the top 10 of the week. His 6 receptions for 125 yards are both career highs, through 6 games. Higgins has emerged as probably the best WR on the Bengals, who have shown signs of life just one season after finishing with the NFL’s worst record. Higgins has a nice rapport with Joe Burrow developing and has moved into the every week starter conversation.
601 Yards of Offense
After an odd and shortened week, the Tennessee Titans put up a franchise-record 601 yards of offense, led by the one and only, the unidread, Derrick Henry. Henry had nearly half of those yards himself, 264 yards from scrimmage, including a 94-yard touchdown run in the 4th quarter to take the lead back from the Texans. Ryan Tannehill managed to outduel Deshaun Watson, putting up 364 passing yards and throwing 4 TDs, though really, it’s the skilled manner in which he hands the ball to Derrick Henry and then gets the heck out of the way that got him this victory. 9 different Titans had receptions in this game, led by, as expected, Anthony…Firkser? Firkser saw a larger role with Jonnu Smith sidelined by injury and had a whopping 8 receptions for 113 yards and found the end zone as well. Firkser now has a Michael Thomas-esque 78.1% catch rate on his career. He is owned in 3% of fantasy leagues and was the TE1 on the week, so place your bids now! A quick digression – not to call out our drinkfive.com fantasy league or anything, but only 4 of the top 20 TEs so far this week are even on rosters in this league!
39.4 Fantasy Points
Let’s take another look at Derrick Henry’s ridiculous fantasy performance on Sunday. 22 carries for 212 yards is a 9.64 yards per carry average, meaning that every time he carried the ball, he went 29 of the 30 feet traditionally required to make a first down. He added two receptions for 52 yards, 53 of them (what?) coming in overtime to flip the field and set up the Titans for his game-winning TD 4 plays later. This is his third consecutive season where he has a game of at least 200 rushing yards. Henry is the first NFL player to accomplish this feat. He has 9 TDs in those three games. He can add two playoff games last year where he broke 200 yards from scrimmage to that leader board as well. How dominant was Henry? Well, the second-best RB this week has only 65% of his fantasy points. He scored 3x the points that the RB10, Adrian Peterson, had this week.
3 Pick-Sixes
Aaron Rodgers threw his third-ever pick-six on Sunday in 179 regular-season games. By contrast, his opponent on Sunday has 16 on his career. How about showing that stat when you try inflating Brady’s ego, Fox? Anyways, I digress. It was one of the worst games of Rodgers’ career and the Packers even managed to lose their first-place status in the NFC North. Meanwhile, the Bucs move into sole possession of first place in the NFC South with their 4th victory. Brady’s old team only has 2 victories…if anybody is counting. The Bucs are managing to win with defense and a solid run game, just what we expected out of the traditionally high-flying offense of Bruce Arians. Ronald Jones is the first player this season with 3 consecutive 100-yard rushing games. Even Rob Gronkowski is getting in on the action, scoring his first TD as a Buc and finishing with 16.3 points this week, his best game since Week 14 of the 2018 season.
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- Written by Shawn Foss
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! This fantasy season has become a weekly exercise in dodging landmines, whether they be of the injury or COVID variety, and now that bye weeks are here, it gets even messier. This is the 3rd week in a row with a game in question due to COVID-19, and with the state of the running back position, we really need every game on the slate to happen. 8 of the top 16 running backs by preseason ADP will be sidelined either by injury or a bye, and one of the 8 that will be playing is Kenyan Drake (Drake is currently the RB32 in PPR scoring despite not missing a game). This is a week where you’re going to see some dicey flex options that make it into lineups, especially in deeper leagues. There are a few rookies that may be able to help. Keep in mind that all rookies listed below at the same position and same header are listed in the order that I would play them this week. Also, any references to fantasy scoring ranks are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive in and talk about what to expect in week 6…
Rookies to Start:
RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC (Wk. 6: @Buf.): This week has been a tough one for folks with Edwards-Helaire on their rosters. It started with Darrel Williams taking 40% of the backfield snaps last Sunday against the Raiders and ended with Kansas City signing Le’Veon Bell, who will undoubtedly take a huge chunk out of CEH’s workload. Luckily for Edwards-Helaire, Bell will not be active this week, and CEH will get at least one more chance to shine. Despite ceding more snaps to Williams last week, Edwards-Helaire still had at least 18 combined opportunities (carries + targets) for the 5th straight week and had 6+ targets for the third time in 4 games. Buffalo was one of the strongest defenses in the league in 2019, but they have struggled early in 2020. The Bills rank 22nd in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. The Chiefs have a gaudy implied total this week of 31 points, so there is a solid chance that CEH finds paydirt. If you have him, he should be in your lineup. If he does have a big game, it would be wise to test the market and attempt to trade him after the week in redraft formats if you can get someone to pay up for him.
RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (Wk. 6: vs. Cin.): We haven’t seen a true breakout game from Taylor yet, but we have seen a decent amount of consistency. He’s scored at least 13 PPR points in 4 out of 5 games this year but hasn’t reached 20 in any of them. That could change this week. This matchup should play to Taylor’s strengths. Cincinnati has done a good job of limiting receiving production by opposing backs, but Taylor doesn’t do much of his damage through the air. He’s tallied just 6 catches in the past 4 games. The Bengals have given up the 3rd-most RB rushing yards per game so far, and The Colts are favored by 7.5 points this week. A positive game script and an injury to Jordan Wilkins means Taylor will likely see his highest snap share of the season, and may finally have a game where he’s able to get into a rhythm running the ball. He should be a very safe RB2 this week with upside for more.
RB James Robinson, JAX (Wk. 6: vs. Det.): Robinson has continued to show himself to be a weekly fantasy starter in recent weeks, but his ceiling continues to be limited by the Jaguars’ overall struggles. During Jacksonville’s current 4-game losing streak, the rookie has played more than 60% of the snaps just once, with the team preferring to give Chris Thompson more run when they are trailing. Robinson has made the most of the snaps he is playing, finishing among the top-30 finishers at the position in each of the past 4 weeks, and in the top-10 twice. This week he faces off with Detroit, who ranks 31st in run defense DVOA, so it’s a juicy matchup, but the Jaguars are again underdogs. If they can keep this game in a neutral or positive game script, Robinson has top-5 upside this week. In any case, he should be a locked-and-loaded RB2 in most lineups. In DFS formats he’ll continue to be a better option in cash games than tournaments. He’s the 10th-highest priced RB on DraftKings this week.
RB Antonio Gibson, WAS (Wk. 6: @NYG): Gibson runs into a bit of the same problem that James Robinson does – although he’s shown himself to be a capable receiver, the team still has another receiving back that they like to use more when they play from behind, and they play from behind a lot. JD McKissic has played 12 more snaps this season than Gibson, but Gibson has scored nearly 30 more PPR points than McKissic on the season. This week projects to be a close game for Washington for once and the Giants allow the 13th-most RB points per game. That should help Gibson see the field a bit more than usual this week, and the switch to Kyle Allen at QB appears that it will benefit the rookie as well. Allen targeted his running backs on 6 of his 14 pass attempts last Sunday. I view Gibson as a borderline option most weeks, but this week with a decent matchup and so many running backs out, you’re probably going to have a hard time finding a better option than Gibson in your flex spot.
WR Chase Claypool, PIT (Wk. 6: vs. Cle.): Starting Claypool this week will probably feel like point chasing after his breakout 4-TD game last Sunday, but on paper, it’s the right call. With Diontae Johnson knocked out of the game early, Claypool pretty much assumed his role against Philly. Johnson had a 31.5% target share in the first two weeks of the season before injuries popped up, and Claypool was targeted on 32.3% of Big Ben’s targets in week 5. The Browns have allowed the 3rd-most WR points per game so far this year, and Johnson is going to be sidelined again Sunday. Claypool also has a bit of history on his side this week. In the last 25 years, there have been 10 instances of a player catching 4 TD passes in one game. 7 of those players reached double-digit PPR points the following week, 6 of them scored 15+, and 5 of them got in the end zone again. Claypool’s chances at another strong game are very good, and his DraftKings price of $5,200 hasn’t caught up to what he did a week ago. He’s a solid cash game option there as well.
WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Wk. 6: vs. Ari.): Dak Prescott going down for the year is a decidedly bad thing for the Cowboys’ passing attack, but it isn’t a death knell. During his best stretch in Cincy from 2013-2016, the Bengals offense carried 2 top-36 fantasy receivers each season, and this Dallas group of receivers probably has more talent than Dalton ever had in Cincy. The matchup in this game is a favorable one. The Cardinals rank 26th in pass-defense DVOA, and Patrick Peterson is likely to be covering Amari Cooper for much of the game. That should open things up for Lamb and Michael Gallup. My biggest fear with this offense is that they go back to playing more of a ball-control game and try to slow things down with Dak out, but I don’t expect that to happen. Mike McCarthy prefers an up-tempo offense, and I think Dalton is a capable enough QB for them to continue to keep things moving. Lamb has seen at least 6 targets and scored double-digit PPR points in every single game this year. He’s a quality WR2/3 option this week.
WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (Wk. 6: vs. Atl.): Jefferson had a less than ideal fantasy performance in week 5 if you started him, but I’d expect him to bounce back in week 6. This game has real shootout potential with Julio Jones healthy. The Vikings rank 27th in scoring defense and the Falcons rank 30th, and this game has a 53-point over/under number. I wouldn’t expect Minnesota’s game plan to change much with Dalvin Cook out (Alexander Mattison isn’t much of a drop off behind him), but Atlanta has given up at least 299 passing yards each and every week and ranks 30th in pass defense DVOA. Jefferson is bound to see a healthy share of that receiving load. Something in the range of 5 for 75 with a possible score sounds about right for the rookie this week. Don’t let last week scare you away from firing him up in your lineups.
Borderline Rookies:
RB D’Andre Swift, DET (Wk. 6: @Jax.): The Lions backfield deployment has been the source of a lot of frustration for fantasy players this year. Each of Swift, Adrian Peterson, and Kerryon Johnson have had at least one-week ranking 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in snap count out of that trio. There’s no clear-cut pecking order. It feels like the goal is to base the RB usage on the matchup, much like the Patriots did for years, and it’s going to continue to frustrate fantasy players all year. For what it’s worth, this feels like a Swift week. The Jaguars have allowed the 10th-most RB catches per game despite not playing many true receiving backs. They managed to cough up 6 catches each to Jonathan Taylor and Joe Mixon. Swift has 13 catches on the year while Johnson and Peterson have combined for just 6. Swift is in play this week as a boom-or-bust RB3/flex option.
RB JK Dobbins, BAL (Wk. 6: @Phi.): Dobbins has had flashes of brilliance in the first five weeks of the season, but the Ravens have been committed to the committee approach. Dobbins has averaged just 5 touches per game but has turned those into 40 yards per game. Ultimately if you play Dobbins you’re hoping he gets in the end zone. I list him as a borderline option this week because of how messy the running back situation is around the league, but I would lean against starting him if you can avoid it. There are some reasons for optimism for Dobbins. He’s made several big plays, and Philly has given up their fair share of them. Only Washington has given up more 40+ yard runs than the Eagles, and only the Bengals & Texans have given up more 20+ yard runs than Philly.
WR Jerry Jeudy, DEN (Wk. 6: @NE): I wrote about Jeudy a week ago in this same matchup before the game ended up being pushed to week 6. The only real difference this week is that Denver gets back their starting QB Drew Lock. It would have been Brett Rypien under center had they played in week 5. The on-paper matchup for Jeudy isn’t great, but he should see enough volume to get him through to a productive day. The Broncos will be without Noah Fant, KJ Hamler, and Melvin Gordon. Josh Jackson is a tough matchup in the slot where Jeudy plays 70% of his snaps, but the Pats have given up lines of 7-67-1 to Tyler Lockett and 6-84-1 to Hunter Renfrow this season. Jeudy should make for a nice WR3 in a week where there should be plenty of targets for him. The Broncos are a 9.5-point underdog and should be throwing a lot.
WR Laviska Shenault, JAX (Wk. 6: vs. Det.): Shenault has been the most consistent part of the Jaguars’ receiving group this season, leading the team in both catches and yards through 5 games. He’s a reasonable flex option this week against a Detroit defense that has allowed the 9th-most WR points per game, but there are some red flags to be aware of. The Jaguars have stopped short of giving him a full-time role, playing him fewer than 70% of the offensive snaps each week, and his two highest snap share weeks came in games where DJ Chark was injured. Chark is expected to play this week. Shenault also has an average target depth of just 7.9 yards for the season, doing a lot of his damage after the catch, but the Lions have allowed the 4th-fewest yards after catch per game. Viska has a reasonable shot at a top-30 performance this week, but expecting a breakout game is probably asking for too much unless Chark ends up being sidelined.
WR Tee Higgins, CIN (Wk. 6: @Ind.): Higgins doesn’t get a great matchup Sunday, but with a limited slate this week he’s been productive enough to warrant consideration for a flex spot. Higgins has seen at least 6 targets in 4 straight games and has led the Bengals in WR snaps in 2 of the last 3 weeks. Despite ranking 1st in pass defense DVOA, the Colts have allowed 2 receivers in each of the last 2 weeks to reach 10 PPR points without including touchdowns. There is upside for a useful week from Higgins, and you could do worse than him this week if you’re searching for a flex option or WR3.
WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF (Wk. 6: vs. LAR): Keep a close eye on updates for this game. It’s still a little up in the air which 49er WR will be shadowed by Jalen Ramsey. It’s either going to be Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel, but it’s hard to say for sure which one it will be. For the year, Ramsey is allowing just 4.7 yards per target on balls thrown in his direction. The Rams have allowed the fewest WR points per game, but have given up lines of 4-81 to Gabriel Davis, 6-100 to Cole Beasley, and 6-64 to DeSean Jackson. If Aiyuk avoids Ramsey, he could produce a useful week, but if we don’t know who Ramsey will match up with, I’d probably steer clear.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Joe Burrow, CIN (Wk. 6: @Ind.): Burrow is coming off of his worst game of the season against a stingy Ravens defense, and this week he faces off with an Indianapolis defense that has allowed the fewest QB points per game so far. They’ve been especially tough over the past 4 weeks, giving up about 10.5 points per game to opposing signal callers. They’ve allowed an average of just 194 yards per game and logged 9 interceptions and coughed up just 4 touchdowns in that span. The Bengals are 7.5-point underdogs in this game, so volume shouldn’t be a problem for Burrow. It would be tough for Joe to put up fewer points than he did a week ago, but this is unlikely to be a ceiling week like we saw for him against the Browns and Eagles. With four teams off this week, you might not have better options in a 2-QB league, but I wouldn’t start Burrow in any 1-QB formats and would view him as outside of the top-20 QB options for the week.
RB Cam Akers, LAR (Wk. 6: @SF): Akers returned from his rib injury last week, but he’s clearly playing behind Darrell Henderson at this point. Cam did put up 61 yards on 9 carries last Sunday, but the Rams were ahead by at least 13 points for every one of those carries, and 46 of the yards came on one 4th quarter carry when the game was already decided. The 49ers are a much tougher run defense than Washington, allowing the 2nd-fewest RB points per game and ranking 6th in run defense DVOA. The Rams are the kind of team that may change up their RB usage suddenly, but I’d steer clear of Akers this week unless you think the Rams will blow out the 49ers like the Dolphins did a week ago.
RB La’Mical Perine, NYJ (Wk. 6: @Mia.): The release of Le’Veon Bell should be good news for Perine, but while Bell was out with injury Perine was playing behind both Frank Gore and Kalen Ballage, both of whom Adam Gase seems to love. There has been some noise this week that Perine will get a chance to carve out a receiving role, but I’ll believe it when I see it. Perine has been targeted just twice so far this season. He may be worth a stash in really deep leagues and in dynasty formats, but there’s no way to justify playing him this week.
RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn, TB (Wk. 6: vs. GB): Vaughn looked to have a golden opportunity going into last week with LeSean McCoy out and Leonard Fournette only available in case of emergency, but he failed to take advantage. Vaughn left the game early with a chest injury, but not before losing a fumble. Ronald Jones played great in a workhorse role, and Fournette should be much more involved this week, so Vaughn goes back to being an afterthought for now. Keep him sidelined this week.
RB AJ Dillon, GB (Wk. 6: @TB): There is nothing to take away from the news that Tyler Ervin is out as far as Dillon is concerned. Ervin has been playing a healthy number of snaps each week (he’s been on the field for about a third of the Packers offensive plays), but he’s a shifty speed back who is used occasionally on sweeps and outside running plays. The bruising Dillon isn’t a natural fit to fill that role. There is a chance Dillon sees a bit more short-yardage work if Aaron Jones picks up some of Ervin’s role, but more than 5 touches for the rookie would be a surprise.
WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (Wk. 6: vs. KC): Davis has been impressive over the past few weeks, topping 50 yards or finding the end zone in each of the last 4 games. He even played 100% of the offensive snaps in week 5, but I’d expect him to go back to a secondary role this week. John Brown and Cole Beasley should both be good to go this week. In the 3 games where Brown has played more than 50% of the snaps, Davis has a total of 4 catches on 4 targets. He was just fortunate enough to score TDs on 2 of them. The Chiefs are one of the toughest matchups for opposing WRs, allowing the 6th-fewest points per game to the position. Davis is at best a TD dart throw this week.
WR John Hightower, PHI (Wk. 6: vs Bal.): Hightower is fast becoming the Eagles’ 2020 version of JJ Arcega-Whiteside…a rookie receiver who plays a ton of snaps each week but does absolutely nothing with them. Hightower has led the Eagles in WR snaps for three consecutive weeks but has just 6 catches for 59 yards in those games to show for it. Travis Fulgham’s emergence and Greg Ward’s consistency in the slot have pretty much rendered Hightower a decoy most snaps. The Ravens rank 7th in pass-defense DVOA and have allowed the 7th-fewest WR points per game for the year. Hightower really isn’t a fantasy option at this point.
WR Antonio Gandy-Golden, WAS (Wk. 6: @NYG): Gandy-Golden has seen his playing time increase in recent weeks, playing a season-high 43% of the offensive snaps in week 5, but that hasn’t translated into targets. He’s totaled just 1 catch for 3 yards on 3 targets all season. There isn’t any reason to view his increase in snaps as a reason to stash him.
WR Tyler Johnson, TB (Wk. 6: vs. GB): Johnson came out of the gates fast in week 4 against the Bears, piling up 4 catches for 61 yards by early in the 2nd quarter, but he didn’t record another catch the rest of the game. The Bucs should get Chris Godwin and Justin Watson back this week, and Johnson should return to the bench. He’s not worth considering this week.
Rookies on Byes: QB Justin Herbert, LAC, RB Josh Kelley, LAC, RB DeeJay Dallas, SEA, WR Henry Ruggs, LV, WR Bryan Edwards, LV, WR Freddie Swain, SEA
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
RB Zack Moss, BUF (Wk. 6: vs. KC): Moss is practicing in full this week and appears to be on track to play for the first time since week 2. I’d be hesitant to go right back to him in anything but the deepest season-long leagues, but he’s a sneaky cheap DFS option. Moss was dominating red zone snaps in this backfield before getting hurt. In his absence, Devin Singletary has found the end zone just once on the ground and was stuffed at the 1-yard line on back-to-back plays against the Rams. If Moss goes right back into that red zone role, he has a decent chance to find the end zone in a game where the Bills have an implied total of 26.5 points. The way to attack the Chiefs is on the ground. Kansas City ranks 28th in run defense DVOA and 2nd in pass defense DVOA. In their one loss to the Raiders, the Chiefs were dominated in the trenches. Buffalo should try to follow that blueprint. Moss could give you 50+ yards and a score for the minimum price in DraftKings.
WR Darnell Mooney, CHI (Wk. 6: @Car.): Mooney continues to operate as the Bears’ number 2 wide receiver. The switch to Nick Foles at QB hasn’t always been pretty, but it has still been an upgrade on Mitch Trubisky – especially for Allen Robinson, who has been targeted at least 10 times in each of the last 3 games. Robinson has a 28.8% target share from Foles. That hasn’t stopped Mooney from seeing 14 targets himself in Foles’ two starts. In the last two weeks, the Bears have faced the Colts and Bucs, who rank 1st and 4th in pass defense DVOA respectively. This week they face the Panthers who rank 14th. I expect the Panthers to pay extra attention to A-Rob due to the heavy workload he’s been seeing, and that could open things up for Mooney. I like his chances at 60+ receiving yards in this one, and he costs the minimum on DraftKings.
WR Devin Duvernay, BAL (Wk. 6: @Phi.): Baltimore’s #2 receiver Miles Boykin popped up on the team’s injury report on Friday with a thigh injury. He’s listed as questionable for Sunday’s game with Philly. If he misses this game, it could mean more opportunities for Duvernay. The rookie has flashed his wheels two weeks in a row with a kick return touchdown against Kansas City and a 42-yard run on a reverse last week against the Bengals. Marquise Brown is likely to be lined up against Darius Slay for a lot of this game, which could result in more targets for Mark Andrews and the other receivers. If Boykin misses this game, Duvernay becomes an interesting cheap DFS play for a limited slate and has some extra appeal in leagues that give bonus points for return yards.
WR Denzel Mims, NYJ (Wk. 6: @Mia.): Mims was designated to return from injured reserve this week, and those of you in deeper leagues should look into beating the crowd to scoop him off the waiver wire. The Jets have been abysmal this year, but in 5 weeks they’ve gotten 6 top-30 WR performances this season – 3 from Jamison Crowder, 2 from Braxton Berrios, and one from Jeff Smith. Most of those have come from the slot, but Mims could provide a true outside threat to balance out that passing game. There isn’t much competition to climb ahead of on the depth chart.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Make sure to check on gameday for any inactives to make sure they aren’t in your lineups. There are a number of game-time decisions this week to keep an eye on. If you want to yell at me about anything written above or have questions, feel free to hit me up on Twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.
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- Written by Tad Bukowski
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- Written by David Biggs
Often we don't look far enough ahead to be able to make intelligent decisions for our rosters going forward 2, 3, or even more games. Let's play chess here and look into some players that are trending up overall that I think will continue to provide fantasy value deeper into the season. All of these guys are also very obtainable either through the waiver wire or buy buying them from an opponent while they're still cheap!
QB Teddy Bridgewater is the 15th highest scoring QB this season, putting up 92.74 fantasy points over 5 games. Although he started slow (which makes sense after the coaching and player changes that Carolina made over the last year), he has averaged almost 300 passing yards and 2 TDs over the past 2 matchups with Atlanta and Arizona, not including a rushing TD against the Cardinals in Week 4. Bridgewater has the cast to back up his rising numbers with D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson at wideout (and Curtis Samuel is one of the best #3 WRs in the league), but one of the biggest indicators that Bridgewater will have continued success is that even without the #1 pick of most fantasy football drafts this season (Christian McCaffrey), the Panthers offense has been able to put up big numbers and continue to utilize fill-in Mike Davis in a similar way. The guy had 25 touches last week including 10 targets which resulted in 9 receptions for 60 yards and a TD. That is what we like to see when looking for a fantasy QB that excels... a pass-catching RB that scores TDs every game. That’s what we have here, folks.
RB Myles Gaskin probably should not be on this list – and we probably shouldn’t be talking about the Dolphins in general this season, right? But hey, here we are. He’s the 27th highest scoring RB this year, with 45.6 fantasy points, 17.60 coming in Week 5’s routing of the 49ers. But Gaskin has not had a game below 7.7 fantasy points this season and is in general still trending up. With a matchup against everyone’s favorite New York Jets this week (currently allowing the 6th most points to RBs with 24.9 per game), he should continue that trend. Admittedly, a lot of Gaskin’s value depends on Fitzpatrick staying under center for as long as possible, but that seems to be the likely situation in Miami for quite a while as they allow Tua Tagovailoa to develop slowly and learn the offense. Gaskin is currently ranked as RB26 by the FantasyPros ECR, but I have him at #22. This team is hot, and you know what they say about irons.
WR Mike Williams is currently the #50 WR overall in Half PPR scoring with 38.9 points. Although only putting up 7 receptions for 100 yards over the first 3 games of the season and going out with a hamstring injury in week 3 against the Panthers, he has stepped up in a big way starting with this most recent week’s performance. In Week 5’s loss to the Saints he caught 5 passes for 109 yards and 2 TDs for a 25.40-point performance. Welcome back to fantasy relevance, Mike! This is the start of a positive trend for Williams which coincides with the rise of the Chargers’ rookie QB, Justin Herbert. Herbert started in Week 2 against the Chiefs due to the botched pain-killing injection before the game and has retained the job ever since. He has played better each subsequent game and is himself an honorable mention for the ‘Boom!’ tag as a QB. Granted, Keenan Allen came out of the game in the 2nd quarter with back spasms, but Herbert is throwing well enough and for enough yards now that he can easily support both receivers in this offense. Williams has a very good chance to get back to his level of success in 2019 (50ish receptions for 1000ish yards). In fact, he already matched the number of TDs (2) just from showing up on Monday Night Football.
TE Austin Hooper is currently ranked TE15 from the FantasyPros ECR, and I think that is a little low considering the trend that I am seeing and how I project him to perform over the next several games. He has scored only 29.8 fantasy points so far in Half PPR which makes him the #22 ranked TE over 5 games, but his targets have increased over the last 3 weeks from 4 to 7 and then to 10. Last week against the Colts, Hooper caught 5 passes for 57 yards. The previous week he also caught 5 passes and scored a TD. With the Browns’ offense stepping up this year and scoring 30 points in 4 straight games for the first time since 1968, it is impossible to ignore that Cleveland may be doing some things right this season. Hooper obviously had a hell of a resume from Atlanta, and the signs of life that we’re seeing now are really encouraging! The next 3 matchups (PIT, CIN, LV) don’t look great on paper, but with all of the threats both on the ground and in the air in Cleveland, Hooper is not attracting much of the secondary so far in 2020. Capitalize on that!
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- Written by Jason Evans
It's time to look forward to the next several weeks and pick out some busts. These are guys that all have very tough schedules coming up, and are top 15 at their position through 5 weeks. My suggestion to you is to get the trade discussion going in your league and try to unload some of these players to your league mates who may lack the foresight that you do.
Ryan Tannehill, QB-TEN – On the season, Ryan Tannehill has the 8th most points per game, turning in his best performance just last night. Tannehill has had some easy matchups, so far all of his games have come against teams that are giving up top 12 points to opposing QBs. This bust has a lot to do with his matchups coming up, but I also want to point out that he is trailing behind many stat categories that he was doing very well last season. So far, his completion percentage, yards per attempt, yards per completion, and QB rating are all lower than last year’s numbers. Now, he has 6 straight games coming up against teams that are all very tough against opposing QBs. Five of those six teams are giving up the 10th fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs or better. The worst team there is the Steelers, haven’t given up a 20 point game to opposing QBs so far this season, keeping all QBs below 300 yards and giving up no more than 2 TDs in each game. Yes, you’ve accidentally eaten the bye week on Tannehill at this point, but it’s time to find someone with better matchups. Sell high on Tannehill while you can this week.
Raheem Mostert, RB-SF – Mostert has been in and out of the lineup this season, just like in years past. Through his 3 games, Mostert is the 6th best RB by points per game, averaging 18.1 points in his 3 games this year. The 49ers offense is falling apart and has not had any consistent QB play this season. He’s also trending down in points, though he hasn’t been a total disappointment just yet. However, his matchups coming up are going to get much tougher. Games against the Rams, Seahawks, and Patriots will be very tough to rack up big numbers. His best matchup coming up is against the Packers, but that game is on a Thursday night and I don’t like counting on anything that might happen on a Thursday in the NFL. Mostert still has a bye week coming up as well, so dump him for some value now before he starts slumping.
Tyler Lockett, WR-SEA – Tyler Locket has the 14th most points per game among WRs this year, but that is boosted by his 3 TD week 3 game. Aside from that week, he has not reached 100 yards in a game. Lockett’s targets are falling - only 9 across the last 2 games after having at least 8 in each of the first 3 games. DK Metcalf is really starting to explode in the Seattle passing game and has clearly taken over as the number 1 target on the offense. Coming up, the Seahawks play Arizona twice, San Francisco and the Rams, all of whom are top 10 in locking down opposing WRs. Their best matchup comes against the Bills, who are still in the top half of the league. As with all of these suggestions, these players definitely have value, but their top-notch play is going to disappear. Trade Lockett away now while he’s considered a top 15 receiver. His bye week is coming, so maybe you can eat the bye week as a way to improve his trade value and get people to forget about DK’s recent offensive explosion.
Tyler Higbee, TE-LAR – Higbee is the 11th TE in points per game, tied with Hunter Henry. Given the two, I’d much rather roll with Henry based on Highbee’s lower production in the last 3 weeks. Excluding his week 2 explosion of 3 TDs, Higbee hasn’t scored OR broken the 40-yard mark this year. He has only 17 targets through 5 games, just not enough volume to start him on a weekly basis over a generic replacement streaming option. His upcoming matchups are also quite rough. Over the next 8 weeks, only his matchup against the Bears in Week 7 comes against a team giving up top 10 points to opposing TEs. The rest of his matchups are far tougher, and let’s be honest, an 8-week stretch is far too long to hold out for a player to get better. Unloading Higbee now won’t likely net you too much value, but it’s a good idea to start looking for streaming options at TE and maybe try unloading him if he does put up a good game in Week 7.
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- Written by David Biggs
Week 5 is in the books, and we hope your fantasy teams had a great outcome! There were the usual groupings of injuries (Dak Prescott), disappointments (Devin Singletary), and surprises (Chase Claypool), but there is always some secret sauce (spoiler alert: it's almost always thousand island) if you pay attention to the ebb & flow of each week and read in between the lines. Listen to or watch the Fantasy Finish Line podcast to stay on top of the latest news and analysis - we broadcast live on YouTube weekly on Wednesdays at 9pm CT.
Guys that jump out to me this week to overperform expectations: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Devin Singletary, Mecole Hardman, Austin Hooper, and Miami Dolphins (DST).
Pay attention to these rankings throughout the season, as they will continue to evolve based on the latest injury updates, news, and player analysis. Have any specific lineup questions? Feel free to tweet us @drinkfive with any of your questions or comments!
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- Written by Jason Evans
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
39.1 Fantasy Points
Rookie Chase Claypool exploded onto the fantasy radar yesterday with a huge game, scoring 4 TDs against the Eagles and leading the Steelers to a victory. Claypool touched the ball 10 times and found the end zone on 4 of them, putting up 116 yards from scrimmage. His 39.1 fantasy points were about 50% more than Travis Fulgham’s 26.2 points, the second-highest non-QB point scorer on the week. This also means that the top two skill players that aren’t a QB were almost certainly not started in your league, and probably weren’t even owned in your league. Claypool spread his scoring around, getting one TD in each quarter of the game. On the other side of that game, while Miles Sanders had an impressive 74-yard TD run early on, he managed only 6 more yards on his other 10 carries. The Steelers are still the best against opposing RBs in the league.
32 Points
The Browns have now put up over 30 points in each of the last 4 games, all of them wins. They are 4-1 and are playing well in perhaps the toughest division in the league. This week’s win was perhaps the best of the season because it came against the Colts, who had the best defense in the league going into the game. The Browns have continued to commit to running the ball, cumulating another 33 attempts with Kareem Hunt leading the way with 20. It looks like Hunt will be filling the role occupied by Nick Chubb with D’Ernest Johnson a distant second on the team, considering he has been targeted only once in the passing game all season. Odell Beckham Jr. for the second time in his career had a pass completion, rushing attempt, and reception in the same game. He’s 4 for 6 on his career with 144 yards and 2 TDs as a passer, not too shabby!
21.4 Fantasy Points Per Game
Mike Davis is filling in for Christian McCaffrey very nicely. Davis is averaging 21.4 points per game over his last 3 games, all of which he has started because of McCaffrey being out with injury. The Panthers have also won all 3 of those games after an 0-2 start. This just highlights that some teams are better equipped to utilize players than others. Davis already has 426 yards from scrimmage on the season, his second-highest season total in his career. So far this week (the ever points-y Alvin Kamara still plays tonight), Davis is the RB1 with 25.4 points. He has at least 90 yards from scrimmage AND a touchdown in each of the three games he started and is averaging 7.5 receptions per game over the last 4 weeks. When McCaffrey returns, he will probably be just as good as we expect him to be, but it’s clear that a lot of that performance has to do with the entire team that surrounds him.
22.5 Fantasy Points
Jason Sanders single-handedly delivered enough points to defeat the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday. He was responsible for 19 points in the game, while the 49ers put up only 17. He was perfect on the day, making 9 out of 9 kicks totaling 22.5 fantasy points. This was better than any two fantasy players on the 49ers. Helping Sanders along the way was a bit of the ole Fitzmagic – Ryan Fitzpatrick scored 27.6 points on the day to be the QB2 of the week so far. The 49ers are now 0-3 at home, and 2-0 in New Jersey. Jimmy Garoppolo started this game but was probably not ready to come back after going just 7/17 with 2 INTs in the first half before being benched. The 49ers have a lot to figure out and definitely do not look like the same team as last year. Fantasy value on this team seems to be random at best, non-existent at worst.
19 Passing TDs
Russell Wilson continued his stellar 2020 campaign on Sunday night with one of his more dramatic 4th quarter comebacks. Wilson now has 23 career 4th quarter comebacks. This one included going 94 yards and completing two 4th down plays on this drive to DK Metcalf, the latter of which was for the game-winning touchdown. Wilson now has 19 TDs on the season, still on pace for 60 TDs on the year. The next closest QBs are Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes, tied with 13 on the season so far. This year is also showing the emergence of DK Metcalf, now the WR2 on the season. He’s averaging 17.7 points per game this year, hasn’t scored less than 12.6 points all season, and is clearly now Russell Wilson’s favorite target.