Fantasy Football / NFL

Details

Written by Shawn Foss

Created: 08 October 2020

• rookie report,
• nfl
• Week 5
• jonathan taylor
• ceedee lamb
• joe burrow
• james robinson
• justin jefferson

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’re at the quarter turn of the season (assuming the coronavirus doesn’t derail things), and the rookie picture is starting to come clearer. Each week we’ll have a better idea of what normal expectations will look like for the rookie crop.  We were treated to some dazzling rookie performances from the wide receivers in week 4, from CeeDee Lamb’s 2 touchdowns, to Brandon Aiyuk’s acrobatic hurdle, to Justin Jefferson’s second straight 100-yard game. There have been plenty of intriguing rookie wideouts this season. Many of them are listed as borderline options this week, so please keep in mind that all players under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week. I also want to mention that anywhere that you see fantasy points allowed referenced, it’s based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 5…

Rookies to Start:

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC (Wk. 5: vs. LV): If you drafted Edwards-Helaire in the first round of your fantasy draft, the last few weeks probably haven’t been what you were hoping for from him. After a breakout debut, CEH hasn’t found his way back to the end zone and has finished outside of the top-20 running backs in 2 out of 3 weeks. Do not despair. Edwards-Helaire has still averaged 20 touches per game in the last 3 weeks and seen a larger share of the running back touches each week. He’s also through the toughest part of his schedule and hasn’t finished lower than the RB26 in PPR scoring formats. This week he gets his easiest matchup to-date. The Raiders have allowed more fantasy points to the running back position than any team in the league and they rank 30^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. This week will be a great opportunity for a big game out of CEH. He should be worth his price tag in DFS formats and has top-5 RB upside this week in a great matchup. If you can find an impatient fantasy player who is upset by Edwards-Helaire’s start, I would recommend sending a trade offer. His value is about to go up.

RB James Robinson, JAX (Wk. 5: @Hou.): Most people had no idea who James Robinson was before he took the starting gig in Jacksonville, but he has definitely taken the job and run with it. He’s the RB6 for the season and has posted an impressive 40 receiving yards per game. This week he gets to square off with a Texans’ defense allowing the 4^th-most RB points per game and ranking 29^th in run defense DVOA. The Texans actually haven’t given up much receiving production to opposing backs, allowing just 3.3 catches (T-2^nd fewest) and 25.5 receiving yards (6^th-fewest) to the position per game, but a lot of that can be explained by the fact that Houston has mostly played from behind and their opponents have been able to lean on the run game. Houston’s opponents have been trailing on the scoreboard for just 24% of their offensive plays. This week the Texans are actually favored by 6, so if they get ahead, I’d expect Robinson to eclipse those receiving averages that Houston has been allowing to RBs. They’re also a bad enough run defense that Robinson will make some hay on the ground as well. He’s a locked-in RB2 this week.

WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Wk. 5 vs. NYG): The Cowboys have been one of the most prolific passing offenses in the league so far, and Lamb has been the clear #2 receiver in the target pecking order. There has been an obvious effort to get the ball into Amari Cooper’s hands this season as he’s averaged nearly 13 targets per game (on pace for 200(!) targets), but Lamb has been seeing a healthy 7 targets per game himself. There’s bound to be a week at some point where Michael Gallup gets the squeaky wheel treatment and the team forces him some targets, but Dallas throws so much I don’t think that will have much impact on Lamb when it happens. This week Dallas faces the Giants, who have been allowing the 13^th-most points per game to WRs. The one functional part of their pass defense has been James Bradbury, who has limited Robert Woods and Allen Robinson each to less than 40 yards this season. This week Bradbury will be shadowing Amari Cooper. That should help get Lamb a little more work Sunday, and he should be a safe WR2/3 this week with Dallas’s implied total sitting at a robust 31.75 points.

WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (Wk. 5: @Sea.): Jefferson’s seems to have fully vanquished Bisi Johnson and taken over the #2 receiver role in Minnesota with his breakout performances over the last two weeks. Jefferson played mostly in the slot in college at LSU, so it seemed like early production wouldn’t be easy to come by in an offense that has 3+ receivers on the field for just 44% of their snaps, but over the last two weeks, Jefferson has made it clear he can thrive as a perimeter receiver. This passing game still runs through Adam Thielen, but this week the Vikings are going to have to be able to put up some points if they want to keep pace with the Seahawks explosive offense. Minnesota is a 7-point underdog this week, but still has an implied total of 25.25 points. I’d expect them to try to run the ball when they can to keep the ball out of Russell Wilson’s hands, and they may have some success there with box safety Jamal Adams sidelined, but there should be plenty of passing volume for Jefferson to be a safe WR3 with upside this week. No team has coughed up more fantasy points to opposing WRs than the Seahawks so far. He should be a bargain at his $5,500 DraftKings price tag.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Justin Herbert, LAC (Wk. 5: @NO): Herbert finally got the nod from the coach as the full-time starter with Tyrod Taylor recovered from his chest injury, and it would’ve been coaching malpractice if he hadn’t. Herbert has thrown for at least 290 yards every week and kept his team in every game he’s played. They’re 0-3 in Herbert’s starts, but are yet to lose by more than 1 score. New Orleans’ best cornerback Marshon Lattimore is questionable for this week, and this Saints’ defense has allowed multiple TD passes and at least 21 fantasy points to every QB they’ve faced so far. Herbert has shown himself to be a solid QB2 option, and he’ll have nice upside for more this week if the Saints are without Lattimore.  As a TD underdog, Herbert should again be throwing a fair amount.

QB Joe Burrow, CIN (Wk. 5: @Bal.): Burrow’s matchup this week sounds daunting on paper, but the Ravens haven’t been a death sentence for QBs so far this season. Baltimore has allowed 275+ passing yards in 3 straight games including more than 300 to Dwayne Haskins last weekend. Burrow has topped 300 yards in each of the last 3 weeks, and the Ravens secondary is a bit banged up with Marcus Peters and Jimmy Smith both missing some practice time this week. It’s still a talented secondary, and Burrow will have an uphill battle to go over 300 for the 4^th-straight week, but he’s not a bad QB2 option this week. The Bengals will likely have to throw often as a 13-point underdog.

RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (Wk. 5: @Cle.): Obviously most people with Taylor on their rosters are going to be starting him this week, but I wanted to single him out as someone who shouldn’t be a slam-dunk starer. We knew when Marlon Mack went down that Nyheim Hines was still going to be heavily involved in this offense, especially in any weeks where the Colts play from behind. What we didn’t know was how big a role Jordan Wilkins was going to play. Wilkins has had at least 9 carries in each of the last 3 games and has taken a chunk out of Taylor’s weekly ceiling. The rookie has still handled a sizable workload, but as we saw last week, if he doesn’t get in the end zone he’ll have a hard time finishing as a top-20 back for the week. Cleveland isn’t a great matchup for opposing backs. Ezekiel Elliott is the only back to reach 50 rushing yards against them. Several backs have had success catching the ball out of the backfield against the Browns, but Taylor has been targeted just 4 times in the last 3 weeks. You can’t count on passing game usage. I think Taylor projects as a flex option this week that needs to get in the end zone to return real value to your lineup.

RB Antonio Gibson, WAS (Wk. 5: vs. LAR): Gibson has been making the most of his opportunities each week, but at some point you’d like the see the Football Team give him more of them. Peyton Barber has been pushed to the bench, but JD McKissic continues to out-snap him each week. Gibson is averaging 16 PPR points per game over the last 3 weeks and has found the end zone in each game, but he’d have RB1 upside if he was unleashed in a workhorse role. The Rams have been a beatable run defense, ranking 28^th in run defense DVOA, but it’s hard to consider Gibson an auto-start while playing just half the snaps. He should be a safe flex play this week, and his price tag of $5,000 on DraftKings makes him an interesting bargain option this week.

RB Josh Kelley, LAC (Wk. 5: @NO): Austin Ekeler’s trip to the IR should be good news for Josh Kelley’s fantasy outlook, but he fumbled in a crucial spot in each of the last two games and it’s opened the door for the now healthy Justin Jackson to work his way into the mix. Kelley played 30 snaps to Jackson’s 21 last week, and I’d expect a similar split going forward unless Kelley can stop fumbling and can separate himself from Jackson on the field. New Orleans has been one of the tougher run defenses in the league, ranking 4^th in run defense DVOA, so Kelley will probably have to make things happen in the receiving game to have a strong week. The Saints have only allowed 31 receiving yards per game to opposing backs though. New Orleans is favored by a touchdown, so game script should keep the Chargers throwing a bit. I’d view Kelley as an upside RB3 this week despite a less than ideal matchup.

WR Laviska Shenault, JAX (Wk. 5: @Hou.): Shenault finally had the kind of week we’ve been looking for out of him last Sunday with 91 yards on 6 touches (5 receptions), and this week he faces a Houston defense that is fresh off of allowing Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson to combine for 12 catches and 217 yards. I’d like to see the Jaguars give Shenault more of a full-time role, and he still has a floor somewhere around 40-50 scrimmage yards and 8 or so PPR points, but I like his chances to post a ceiling week in this one. He should match up with the burnable Vernon Hargreaves for most of the game, and I love his upside as a WR3 this week.

WR Jerry Jeudy, DEN (Wk. 5: @NE): This doesn’t shape up as a great week for Jeudy, but volume alone could get him through to a nice fantasy week. Brett Rypien is likely to be under center again, and he won’t have much to work with outside of Jeudy. Noah Fant and KJ Hamler will be sidelined in this one, so that leaves Tim Patrick and probably DaeSean Hamilton as the other receiving options. It’s a little worrying that Jeudy was limited to just 4 targets in Rypien’s first start with the Broncos throwing 31 times (Jeudy averaged 8 targets per game in the first 3 weeks), but he did find the end zone and top 60 receiving yards. I’d expect Rypien to look his way more often in this one. Josh Jackson is a tough matchup in the slot where Jeudy plays 70% of his snaps, but the Pats have given up lines of 7-67-1 to Tyler Lockett and 6-84-1 to Hunter Renfrow this season. Jeudy should make for a nice WR3 in a week where there should be plenty of volume for him.

WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF (Wk. 5: vs. Mia.): Aiyuk could get Jimmy Garoppolo back this week at QB, and he faces a Miami defense that ranks just 28^th in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 8^th-most WR points per game so far. On the surface, it looks like a great matchup, but he may have to tangle with the best part of the Dolphins’ secondary in Xavien Howard. The 49ers only target their WRs on a league-low 39% of their pass attempts, and with Garoppolo and Mostert back this could be a game where they get ahead and lean on the run game. Howard was torched by DK Metcalf last week, so there is some hope for Aiyuk, but the limited volume makes me hesitant to rank him higher than Jeudy or Shenault in week 5.

WR Tee Higgins, CIN (Wk. 5: @Bal.): As I mentioned under Burrow above, the Ravens’ secondary is banged up this week and they haven’t been as dominant as they were a year ago. Higgins is working as a full-time WR in this offense, playing ahead of AJ Green, and the Ravens have ranked a pretty average 14^th in pass defense DVOA. He isn’t a guy I would target in DFS lineups, but with the pass-happy game script the Bengals are likely to be dealing with, he should be a passable WR3 option. Baltimore has allowed the 20^th-most WR points per game so far.

WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (Wk. 5: @Ten.): This game is up in the air at the moment thanks to the Titans’ coronavirus outbreak, and that probably doesn’t help Davis if they do in fact play. He played a lot last week with Cole Beasley battling through a foot injury and being limited to just 18 snaps. John Brown has also been a bit hobbled at practice this week with a calf injury. Having the game on Monday or Tuesday would give those guys a little extra time to get right and would hurt Davis’s opportunity. The rookie has shown he can perform when called upon, and Tennessee isn’t a pass defense to fear, allowing the 12^th-most WR points per game. Buffalo is averaging over 330 passing yards per game, so Davis has some upside as a desperation WR3 even with everyone else healthy, but if Beasley or Brown will be limited or sit out, Davis should move up your rankings this week. If your league doesn’t allow you to designate replacement players ahead of time though, it’ll be tough to trust anyone in this game.

Rookies to Sit:

RB JK Dobbins, BAL (Wk. 5: vs. Cin.): Dobbins has been a victim of a crowded backfield so far this year, and I don’t see a lot of reasons why that will change in the immediate future. The Ravens have played in a few lopsided wins already, and still Dobbins has failed to top 43% of the snaps played or 7 touches in any game this season. The Bengals are another opponent that the Ravens should handle easily, and I know the RB pickings can be slim out there this week, but I’d stay away from Dobbins outside of the deepest of leagues this week. Cincy has allowed the 12^th-most RB points per game on the year, but that total is split 3 ways for Baltimore.

RB Cam Akers, LAR (Wk. 5: @Was.): Akers is practicing as of Thursday, but his status for Sunday’s game remains in doubt. If he plays, I think you have to wait a week to see how he is re-integrated into the backfield. The Rams look to be a true committee with no clear lead option, and that’s a situation you typically want to avoid in fantasy. Washington has allowed the 10^th-fewest RB fantasy points per game on the year, and Akers likely won’t see enough work to post a big week this Sunday. Like with Dobbins, those RB points are split three ways. I wouldn’t consider him outside of a desperation scenario.

RB Zack Moss, BUF (Wk. 5: @Ten.): It looks like Moss will be ready to return to action this week, assuming the Bills still have a game to play, but I would take a wait-and-see approach before putting him back in your lineup. If the Bills and Titans play at all, it won’t be until Monday or Tuesday, and that happens only if there are no more positive COVID tests for Tennessee. If your league doesn’t allow you to designate a replacement player prior to this week’s games, I wouldn’t even consider Moss. He may return to his red zone role and faces a defense that has allowed the 9^th-most RB points per game so far, but Devin Singletary performed well as the workhorse back over the last two weeks. There’s no guarantee that we go right back to the same workload split we were seeing before Moss’s injury, and Moss wasn’t exactly lighting up the fantasy box scores before he got hurt – he averaged 7.7 PPR points per game the first two weeks. I would like to see how it plays out before re-inserting Moss into any lineups, especially considering the COVID uncertainty surrounding this game.

RB Anthony McFarland, PIT (Wk. 5: vs. Phi.): McFarland saw his first real game action in week 3 and flashed the kind of speed that the Steelers coveted him for, tallying 42 yards on 6 carries and a 7-yard reception. That performance came against the Texans though, and they rank just 29^th in run defense DVOA. The Eagles rank a passable 15^th in that stat, but they were 3^rd in 2019 and only Darrell Henderson has made it to 60 scrimmage yards against Philly so far this season. I know it’s a dire week at running back but counting on McFarland to see more work than he did in week 3 is a fool’s errand. This is still James Conner’s backfield.

WR Henry Ruggs, LV (Wk. 5: @KC): Ruggs seems likely to return this week while Bryan Edwards likely will remain sidelined, but this is not a great spot for him to have a breakout game. The Chiefs have allowed the fewest WR points per game and rank 1^st in pass defense DVOA. Ruggs has the kind of obscene speed that can help him post a useful fantasy week in 1 play, but the Raiders don’t involve the receivers enough in their passing attack to make you feel good about starting Ruggs this week. The Raiders throw just 40.1% of their passing targets in the direction of their wideouts. Only the 49ers WRs have a lower target share.

WR John Hightower, PHI (Wk. 5: @Pit.): Hightower has led the Eagles in WR snaps each of the past two weeks with the rest of the position group banged up, but it’s led to just 4 catches and 41 yards. As of Thursday, Alshon Jeffrey isn’t practicing, DeSean Jackson was a limited participant, and JJ Arcega-Whiteside was practicing in full. Even if all 3 missed this game, I would tell you not to play Hightower against the Steelers. Pittsburgh ranks 8^th in pass defense DVOA. If D-Jax plays, Hightower would likely see a significant drop in snap share.

WR Chase Claypool, PIT (Wk. 5: vs. Phi.): With Diontae Johnson practicing in full ahead of this week’s game, Claypool may have missed his window to shine when the Tennessee game was pushed back. He is likely to go back to playing limited snaps sharing the WR3 role with James Washington on Sunday. The Steelers have tried to get him involved in the game-plan each week, and he did record an 80-yard touchdown in week 2 against Denver, but Philly has allowed just one pass play of 40+ yards so far this year. Claypool is no more than a low-volume TD dart throw against an opponent that has allowed just 2 receiving TDs to opposing WRs thus far.

WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, CLE (Wk. 5: vs. Ind.): With KhaDarel Hodge sidelined in week 4 due to a hamstring injury, it was Peoples-Jones who slid into the WR3 role for the Browns, playing 44% of the offensive snaps. He wasn’t targeted in the game, but you might chalk that up to the Browns playing with a large lead for much of the day (Cleveland led by multiple scores for all but one offensive play in the last 2 and half quarters of the game). Hodge was placed on injured reserve for at least the next few weeks, but I wouldn’t view DPJ as a guy to add even in deeper leagues right now. Hodge was targeted just 6 times in the first 3 weeks of the season in this same role, and no team plays a smaller share of their snaps with 3+ WRs on the field than the Browns (36%). Cleveland also just called up Taywan Taylor from their practice squad, and he may steal some snaps from DPJ as well. Taylor caught 37 passes for Tennessee just two seasons ago and was a favorite of fantasy twitter. Add in the fact that Cleveland’s opponent this week, the Colts, rank 2^nd in pass defense DVOA and it’s an easy call to leave Peoples-Jones on the waiver wire this week.

TE Harrison Bryant, CLE (Wk. 5: vs. Ind.): Bryant has continued to see his snap share and fantasy output increase each and every week this season, and as mentioned with Peoples-Jones, the Browns don’t have 3+ receivers on the field very often. This all bodes well for Bryant moving forward, but there are a couple of factors that don’t: the looming return of David Njoku and a matchup this week with the Colts. Njoku has been designated to return from injured reserve and could even be ready to suit up in week 5. Even if he doesn’t return this week, The Colts have allowed the fewest TE points per game in the league so far and have faced off with Chris Herndon, Kyle Rudolph, Jimmy Graham, and Tyler Eifert. Njoku’s return would probably at least cut Bryant’s snaps in half, and if Njoku is out one more week even 5 PPR points out of the rookie TE would be considered a successful week in this matchup.

TE Adam Trautman, NO (Wk. 5: vs. LAC): Trautman was a popular sleeper pick for last week as Jared Cook was sidelined by a groin injury, but things didn’t exactly work out in his favor against the Lions. Josh Hill served as the TE1, and Trautman wasn’t even targeted once. He was even out-snapped by another tight end, Garrett Griffin, who has one career reception that came in 2017. Even if Cook sits again this week, you can likely find more upside elsewhere. The Chargers have allowed the 10^th-most TE points per game on the season, but I wouldn’t be confident that Trautman can capitalize on the matchup.

Rookies on Byes in Week 5: RB D’Andre Swift, DET, RB AJ Dillon, GB, WR Quintez Cephus, DET

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn, TB (Wk. 5: @Chi.): Vaughn got his first real action of the season in week 4, and he made the most of it, scoring a late touchdown and finishing with 10.6 PPR points on just 19 snaps. The Bucs’ offense is very banged up heading into this week’s game in Chicago, and that should benefit Vaughn. LeSean McCoy has been ruled out, Leonard Fournette is doubtful, and a number of pass-catchers will be out as well for this game. Ronald Jones should handle the bulk of the rushing work, but he has been ineffective as a receiver out of the backfield. Jones has 12 catches out of 18 targets for just 57 yards (3.2 yards per target). The Bears haven’t given up a lot of receiving production to opposing backs thus far (4.5 receptions and 33.5 receiving yards per game), but with the limited weapons, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Vaughn log 5+ targets and a handful of carries. If you’re hamstrung at running back in a deep PPR league, he’s a viable fill-in this week, and he costs just $1,000 on DraftKings for the Thursday night showdown slate. A strong performance here could open up more opportunities for him in the weeks to come.

RB DeeJay Dallas, SEA (Wk. 5: vs. Min.): Dallas saw his first action of the season in week 4 with Carlos Hyde sidelined, and it looks like Hyde will be out again this week. Dallas split backup work with Travis Homer, but he did manage to put up 23 yards on 4 touches. He won’t be a worthwhile play in any formats this week, but he is worth monitoring and possibly even stashing in deeper dynasty formats. Chris Carson has been battling a number of injuries and Dallas would be forced into a bigger role if anything happens to Carson.

WR Darnell Mooney, CHI (Wk. 5: vs. TB): Mooney is listed as questionable for this game, but if he plays, he’s going to be an intriguing option in deep leagues and DFS formats. The changing of the guard at QB in Chicago looks like it will be a good thing for Mooney. He was targeted 8 times by Mitch Trubisky in 2+ games. He was targeted 9 times by Nick Foles in week 4. This week the Bears face a tough matchup against a Bucs’ defense that ranks 4^th in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 12^th-fewest WR points per game, but their best corner Carlton Davis will likely be shadowing Allen Robinson. Davis has regularly been used to shadow big-bodied #1 WRs like Robinson and has had success, limiting Michael Thomas in week 1 (3 catches for 17 yards), and limiting De’Andre Hopkins late last year (5 for 23). Robinson is still going to command targets, but Mooney will have a much more favorable matchup and should see plenty of work himself. If Mooney doesn’t play, this would then apply to Anthony Miller. Mooney could be a passable WR3 in deeper leagues this week and is a sneaky DFS option as well if he plays.

WR Tyler Johnson, TB (Wk. 5: @Chi.): Johnson has quietly been on the field for over 30% of the Bucs snaps each of the last two weeks. It hasn’t led to any targets, but the Bucs are quickly running out of weapons ahead of the rookie. With Chris Godwin and Justin Watson already ruled out for this week, and Mike Evans a true game time-decision, Johnson seems likely to play a large number of snaps Thursday night. Brady is bound to look his way at least a few times in this one. If Evans is out, the group of weapons will consist of Scotty Miller, Gronk, Ronald Jones, Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Cameron Brate, and Johnson. The Bears’ defense has been solid against the pass (they allow the 3^rd-fewest WR points per game), but you could do worse than Johnson at his minuscule $200 price tag in the Thursday showdown slate on DraftKings.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and keep an eye out for updates on the Bills/Titans game. You don’t want to leave an inactive player in your lineup. Feel free to hit me up on twitter if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Details

Written by Tad Bukowski

Created: 08 October 2020

• nfl
• Confidence Pool
• Week 5
• pittsburgh steelers
• dallas cowboys
• new england patriots

Details

Written by David Biggs

Created: 06 October 2020

• fantasy football
• Ben Roethisberger
• cleveland browns
• week 5 rankings
• jonnu smith
• devin singletary
• 2020 rankings
• redraft rankings
• justin jefferson

Week 4 was certainly a bumpy ride as one game was postponed and another was nearly canceled as well. But we got through it! Here's the tough part of the season as all of the injuries and player issues pile up - depth at the important positions of running back and wide receiver. Use the next few weeks to build up a roster that can weather the storm that is midseason fantasy football! Listen to the Fantasy Finish Line podcast to stay on top of the latest news and analysis - we broadcast live on YouTube weekly on Wednesdays at 9pm CT.

Guys that jump out to me this week to overperform expectations: Ben Roethsliberger, Devin Singletary, Justin Jefferson, Jonnu Smith, and Cleveland Browns (DST).

Pay attention to these rankings throughout the season, as they will continue to evolve based on the latest injury updates, news, and player analysis. Have any specific lineup questions? Feel free to tweet us @drinkfive with any of your questions or comments!

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Written by Jason Evans

Created: 06 October 2020

• waiver wire
• nfl
• kirk cousins
• Week 5
• dalton schultz
• robert tonyan
• teddy bridgewater
• damien harris
• tee higgins
• d'ernest johnson

Since we’re doing a podcast on Tuesday night this week, let’s return to an old favorite and go over some good waiver pickups for Week 5. All players owned in less than 50% of Fleaflicker leagues, and FAAB bid suggestions are a percentage of your total budget.

QB

Teddy Bridgewater (CAR, 42% owned, FAAB 5%) – Bridgewater is legitimately trending up with improved performances over the last 3 weeks. Now, in Week 5, he gets to face the Falcons who have surrendered essentially 30 fantasy points to the QB position of their opponent every single week. This is a great fill-in if you have injury or bye concerns. Week 6 vs Chi is not great, but then Week 7 is another top matchup against the Saints. Christian McCaffrey could be back by that game as well. Bridgewater is gelling with his receivers nicely and the Panthers are now on a little 2 game win streak.

Kirk Cousins (MIN, 64% owned, FAAB 6-7%) – Cousins had a truly abysmal outing in Week 2, but it turns out that the Colts defense is really good, so we can probably write that one-off. Now he’s got consecutive games against the teams giving up the second and most points to opposing QBs. Both teams, Seattle and Atlanta, are giving up an average of 30+ points per game. Cousins has a very reliable run game that opposing defenses will be forced to focus on before the pass. He’s also found a great connection with his rookie WR, Justin Jefferson. Combine that with Adam Thielen trending up and you’re going to find Kirk Cousins in the top 5 QBs the next couple of weeks.

RB

Damien Harris (NE, 43% owned, FAAB 15-18%) – Harris was quite impressive on Monday Evening Football, putting up a perfect 10.0. Well, I suppose he could have done a bit better, but 100 yards on 17 carries is a nice average. This is the kind of production that will keep you in the lineup on the Patriots, especially with Sony Michel heading to the IR yesterday. Now, traditionally starting RBs for the Patriots is a recipe for driving yourself insane, but let’s just look at their current stable of RBs. Damien Harris is in line to take almost all of the early-down work, provided the game is not getting out of hand. The Patriots defense should keep them in every game. James White will get almost all of the 3^rd down work, and as demonstrated last night, even when he’s playing well, he won’t see much – if any – work on early downs. Sprinkle in a little Rex Burkhead and that’s your rotation. I see Harris as a high floor player with a decent ceiling if he can find the end zone. Just know that when Cam comes back, Harris will probably Cede some goal-line and short-yardage work to him, but then again, he was probably already going to lose a few of those carries to Burkhead anyways.

Justin Jackson (LAC, 22% owned, FAAB 10-12%) – Jackson did not produce much in limited work on Sunday, but he’s been able to produce in the past and he’s definitely going to be given opportunities. The Chargers have always worked with more of a split in carries than most teams, and they should continue to do that with Ekeler out. Joshua Kelley will see the largest boost in production on the team, but he’s a rookie and I do not see him getting 3-down work at all. Kelley has also lost a fumble in consecutive games, and any more of that will see him lose carries. Jackson had an impressive 6.9 yards per carry last season, and his rookie year showed him as effective in the passing game. He’s had a small sample size over his whole career, but now is when he can get sustained work and string a few good games together in a bid to get a larger share of the RB work for the Chargers.

D’Ernest Johnson (CLE, 2% owned, FAAB 13-15%) – Nick Chubb is headed to the IR, and that means that D’Ernest Johnson is the next man up in Cleveland. Johnson looked very good in his first actual game where he got a decent amount of work. This was against a Cowboys team that allowed a franchise-record number of rushing yards. Johnson produced 95 yards on only 13 carries, good for a 7.3 ypc average. Thus far this season, the Browns have been quick to swap between Chubb and Hunt, especially as the game goes on. I expect this to continue with Johnson and Hunt – perhaps with Johnson replacing more of Chubb’s carries instead of Hunt and keeping Hunt in a similar role to what he has now. The Browns are leading the league in rushing yards and are 2^nd in rushing attempts, so their 2^nd RB is a must-own.

Ke’Shawn Vaughn (TB, 41% owned, FAAB 5-8%) – Vaughn has had a rough start to his rookie campaign. Injury and a positive COVID test in the preseason basically kept him out of training camp. Now that Leonard Fournette and LeSean McCoy have been sidelined with injuries, there’s room for Vaughn to show his stuff. He had only 5 touches but did find the end zone. Any RB that can connect with Tom Brady in the passing game has potential for a high ceiling, once his usage goes up. For now, I like Vaughn as a bench stash, though he can be used in an emergency situation this week if you need. The Bucs play on Thursday night and the quick turnaround will make it tough for their injured RBs to return by then. Fresh legs will be at a premium, and while the Bears have a solid defense this year, they have resigned themselves to Tom Brady being one of their co-owners along with the McCaskeys.

WR

Cole Beasley (BUF, 44% owned, FAAB 8%) – Beasley has been very fantasy relevant this season because Josh Allen is playing like he deserves some MVP consideration. Usually, a really strong passing offense can support 3 WRs in fantasy, and the Bills are apparently one of those offenses this season. Beasley had 20 targets through 3 games going into last week and was getting good work until he went out with an injury in the 2^nd half of the game in Las Vegas. Beasley did return later in the game, and the injury came on a spectacular TD catch, so I don’t expect Beasley to miss too much time. This team is just too exciting to stay away for long. This week, the Bills are scheduled to play the Titans, so keep an eye on Beasley’s practice attendance, as well as the Titans COVID testing results. As of the time of writing, the Titans have gone 2 straight days with no new positives, which means that they can open their facilities tomorrow, barring any new developments. I like Beasley as an injury/bye week replacement and a guy you should keep on your roster since he will move up the depth chart if there are any long-term injuries to Diggs or Brown.

Laviska Shenault (JAX, 47% owned, FAAB 5%) – Shenault is a rookie and all rookies are going to have growing pains, however, the Jaguars really like this rookie and are trying their best to get the ball in his hand. He has at least 5 touches in every game this season. He also has at least one rushing attempt in every game and last week put up a season-high of 91 yards from scrimmage. The bigger worry with the Jaguars is whether Minshew Mania is for real or not. After a surprise win against the Colts in Week 1, the Jaguars have lost 3 straight and now must go to Houston to face a team that will be fired up after finally ridding themselves of Bill O’Brien. Shenault is just behind Cole and Chark for the receiving yardage lead on his team. 5 players on the team have over 130 receiving yards on the season already, showing that Minshew likes to spread the ball around. Any changes in the depth chart will benefit Shenault and he is a TD away from a very good performance any week. Consider him a bench stash, for now, to be used to fill in for byes and injuries, especially if his team is getting a good matchup.

Tee Higgins (CIN, 45% owned, FAAB 10%) – Higgins just dwarfs everybody on the field when you see him on TV. He lines up at WR, but wears 85 (why do so few WRs not wear numbers in the 80’s anymore?) and is easily mistaken for a TE. He’s 6’4” but runs a lot faster than you expect him to. He’s an elite WR talent and is just starting to find his groove. Now that the Bengals finally have a win under their belt, they have some very tough matchups. I fully expect Joe Burrow to continue throwing the ball a lot – he is currently second in the league for passing attempts. Higgins leads his team in yards per reception, is second in receiving yards, and third in targets. I expect his target share to grow with A.J. Green struggling as he has. This is a young man’s league, and Green is not that anymore. Get Higgins on your bench now while he’s still cheap. The Bengals have a much softer schedule when it’s time for you to make your playoff push.

Scott Miller (TB, 29% owned, FAAB 8%) – Miller is officially trending up in several categories, including receptions, targets, and fantasy points. The Bucs keep running into injuries, so there’s going to be plenty of playing time for Miller going forward. Tom Brady also seems to be up to his old tricks with a 5 TD game (to 5 different players). With Brady getting in the groove with his new team, there will be plenty of fantasy potential out there. Miller is going to see lots of targets as long as Chris Godwin remains out (for this week most likely) and Mike Evans keeps getting banged up (every week it seems). This week doesn’t seem to be a great matchup for him, however as I mentioned earlier, Tom Brady owns the Bears, so you could do a lot worse than Scott Miller as a bye week or injury replacement.

Tim Patrick (DEN, 8% owned, FAAB 3%) – Patrick is a deep league option, but has all the signs you look for when grabbing a waiver wire player. He’s trending up on a team that has an injury above him on the depth chart. He has increased his receptions each of the last 3 weeks, along with his yardage and fantasy points. He’s also scored a touchdown each of the last two weeks. With Brett Rypien filling in the next week at least, at least he and Patrick have a bit of a downfield rapport developing. However, they’re going to New England, who will smother them on the pass defense. The only solace may be that the Broncos could find themselves down by enough points that they have to throw the ball deep anyways. Grab Patrick as a cheap bench stash if you can’t get any of the players listed above and wait until he has easier games to take a flyer on him in your lineup.

TE

Robert Tonyan (GB, 31% owned, FAAB 10%) – Tonyan will be on bye in Week 5, so he’s not going to be there for you if you need someone this week, but he looks like one of Rodgers’s favorite targets this year. Tonyan has a touchdown in all 3 games that he started this year and put up an incredible 6 rec, 98-yard, 3 TD performance on Monday Night Football yesterday. Tonyan was making the Falcons secondary look foolish, and it’s clear that he’s caught Rogers’s eye. Tonyan will be one of the hottest waiver pickups this week, and if people with big budgets in your league need TEs, you will probably need to double that FAAB to 20% or more to have a shot at landing him. When the Packers return, even with Davante Adams, I expect Tonyan to be a relevant TE1 for the rest of the season.

Dalton Schultz (DAL, 49% owned, FAAB 8%) – Schultz found the end zone for the second time this season on Sunday and he currently sits as the TE8 after 4 games. With Dak Prescott throwing the ball so much and so well, there will be plenty of work for Schultz. He already has 28 targets on the season and there’s not a lot of competition for his spot on the Cowboys depth chart. As long as Dak keeps throwing the ball like he has been, and there’s no reason to expect otherwise, Schultz will be in the TE1 conversation based on volume alone.

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Written by Jason Evans

Created: 05 October 2020

• nfl
• week 4
• odell beckham jr
• cleveland browns
• dak prescott
• statistically insignificant
• george kittle
• metlife stadium

Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.

0 Wins at MetLife Stadium

Well, it’s 2020 and for football fans in the vicinity of New York City, there’s still no victories to speak of. In fact, the last team to win a home game at Metlife stadium is….the New York Guardians of the currently defunct XFL league – though that may return in 2022. If the Giants and Jets can’t get their shit together, it might be the Guardians who manage the next home victory at MetLife Stadium. As predicted, between the Jets and Giants, Frank Gore leads the way in rushing yards with a whopping 174 over 4 games. The only other rushers over 100 yards on the season are both of the team’s starting QBs. Combined, the teams only have 5 passing and 3 rushing TDs. That’s an average of one offensive TD, per team, per game. Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones have combined for 9 INTs, so that’s slightly more than one per game. It’s going to be a rough 2020 in NYC.

28+ Points in the First Half

The Cleveland Browns achieved something yesterday in Dallas that they haven’t done since 1991. They scored at least 28 points in the first half. Now, this isn’t a minor achievement to make fun of, but it is fun to point out that only 4 of the Browns who played in the game are 30 or older and were alive to see the last time they reached that milestone. This year’s Browns, however, seem to be a force to be reckoned with. After getting trounced in Week 1 by the Ravens, they have averaged 39 points per game, albeit against some weaker competition. But hey, you can only play the team that is on the opposite sideline. This year, the Browns are getting the job done on the ground. They lead the league in rushing yards and yards per attempt and have the 2^nd most rushing attempts in the league. The Browns are averaging over 200 rushing yards per game and are also 2^nd in the league with 8 rushing scores. Nick Chubb heading to the IR will hurt them, but in true next man up mentality, D’Ernest Johnson managed 95 yards on only 13 carries Sunday.

1,690 Passing Yards

Dak Prescott, mostly by necessity of his team allowing 146 points through 4 games, has aired the ball out like nobody ever before. His 1,690 passing yards through 4 games is the most in NFL history, and he’s also the first player to throw for 450+ yards in three straight games. Sunday’s performance brings him ahead of Russell Wilson as the #1 fantasy player this season. His 31.3 point per game average and ADP of 48 means that he’s likely on a lot of teams that are doing quite well this season. I will freely admit that I thought he was overhyped going into the season, but I was definitely wrong. He has to throw the ball to someone, and he has gotten 3 of his WRs in the top 30 for fantasy points on the season. If you just go by yardage, those three guys, Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and Michael Gallup are all in the top 18.

183 Receiving Yards

Your Week 4 receiving yards leader through Sunday is not a wide receiver, though he sometimes pretends to be one. George Kittle caught all 15 of his targets for 183 yards, a TD, and even tacked on an 8-yard rush for good measure. The 49ers are stumbling without solid QB play and couldn’t manage very much against the previously winless Philadelphia Eagles. Elsewhere in the strange receiving fantasy stats, 5 players caught 2 TDs each and none of them went over 100 receiving yards. Only Odell Beckham Jr managed to go over 100 yards from scrimmage, courtesy of his third TD, a 50-yard run on a 4^th quarter end-around. Meanwhile, only 4 players topped the 100 rushing yard mark, and 3 of them found the end zone twice. Way to let the rest of the group down, Ronald Jones.

18 Fantasy Points

Finally, we have a look at the D/ST spot for the first time this year. This was a bad week for them, as only 2 teams cracked double digits. The Eagles scored a TD and only gave up 20 points on their way to an impressive 18-point performance. Meanwhile, the Browns – currently a turnover machine with 10 on the season, could only manage 5 points from 3 turnovers and 3 sacks against the Cowboys. The early season leaders at the D/ST position are the Colts (52), Ravens (43), and Buccaneers (37). All still have the ability to just be a crapshoot on a weekly basis. The Colts are in their position courtesy of last week’s 26-point performance, the Bucs put up a 0 in week 1 and the Ravens have only 2 INTs and 9 sacks on the season. Coming up they play Cincy and Philly, so that’s a couple of good matchups to ride with until they hit their bye in Week 7.

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Written by Shawn Foss

Created: 01 October 2020

• fantasy football
• rookie report,
• nfl
• week 4
• jonathan taylor
• joshua kelley
• justin jefferson
• clyde edwards helaire

Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 3 opened with a bit of a dud on Thursday, but man was Sunday fun. We didn’t have nearly the same injury carnage that we saw in week 2, and there were several close games and wild comebacks, not to mention some breakout games by rookies Justin Jefferson, Tee Higgins, Brandon Aiyuk, and James Robinson. This week could be another wild one for offenses with 8 out of 15 games having projected point totals above 50. Let’s dive in and see what to expect from the rookies…

Rookies to Start:

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC (Wk. 4: vs. NE): CEH has seen his fantasy fortunes dip a bit since his breakout NFL debut a couple of weeks ago, but he’s still finished as the RB26 and RB12 the last two weeks. That’s hardly anything to be too upset about, and he should be in line for a nice game this week. New England isn’t exactly a pushover of a defense, but they’ve allowed the 10^th-most RB receptions per game and rank just 19^th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat. The Chiefs are favored by a touchdown, so there should be plenty of opportunities for Edwards-Helaire to carry the ball. He should be a safe top-15 back who will likely break into the top-10 for the week if he gets into the end zone. The Chiefs have an implied total of 30.75, the 2^nd highest of the week.

RB Jonathan Taylor, IND (Wk. 4: @Chi.): Taylor has already been showing us that he can basically carry this offense if he has to, and with another receiver going down with an injury for this team (Michael Pittman Jr.) he may have to. The Colts should look to lean on Taylor this week, and the Bears are just a middling run defense, allowing the 15^th-most RB points per game and ranking 20^th in run defense DVOA. The lack of passing targets for Taylor the last couple weeks has been a little disconcerting, but it’s nothing we didn’t expect coming into the year. I think he’ll get a few more passing targets this week in a game that should be a bit more competitive, and think Taylor will top 15 PPR points Sunday.

RB James Robinson, JAX (Wk. 4: @Cin.): Robinson announced his presence as a fantasy starter with authority last Thursday despite the Jaguars suffering a lopsided loss. He still gave way to Chris Thompson more often than you’d like to see, but he’s clearly the back you want in Jacksonville, and he’s done enough to ensure the job stays his when Ryquell Armstead and Devine Ozigbo get healthy. This week he gets to face a Cincinnati team that has allowed the 5^th-most RB points per game and ranks 21^st in run defense DVOA. The Jaguars will look to involve him early and often, and he should be a safe RB2 in this favorable matchup. I probably would look elsewhere for DFS lineups though with Robinson priced in between CEH and Jonathan Taylor on DraftKings this week.

WR CeeDee Lamb, DAL (Wk. 4: vs. Cle.): Lamb has quickly proven himself to be a safe WR3 option most weeks, putting up at least 5 catches and 59 yards in each of his 3 games so far. This week he faces a Cleveland defense that has given up the 6^th-most WR points per game despite playing the Ravens and Washington, two teams that don’t put up a ton of WR points. This is a great week for Lamb to get into the end zone for the first time in his young career. Don’t be shy about getting him into your lineups.

Borderline Rookies:

QB Joe Burrow, CIN (Wk. 4: vs. Jax.): I actually think Burrow is a borderline QB1 this week. The Bengals have shown that they’re comfortable with the rookie airing it out, and he gets a very beatable matchup with the Jaguars. Jacksonville has allowed Ryan Tannehill and Ryan Fitzpatrick to finish as the QB8 and QB6, respectively in the last two weeks. The Bengals are actually favored to win this game and have an implied point total of 26. The emergence of Tee Higgins to go along with AJ Green and Tyler Boyd makes this an offense that will produce points in plus matchups. Get Burrow in your 2QB lineups, and give him some consideration if you don’t love your starter for this week in a 1-QB league.

RB JK Dobbins, BAL (Wk. 4: @Was.): Dobbins’ usage has been hard to predict on a weekly basis, but I feel pretty confident that he’ll see a decent amount of work this week. The Ravens are an astounding 13-point favorite, and this will be a spot where everyone on their offense can get right. Washington is a middle of the pack run defense, and I’d expect there will be somewhere around 30 carries divvied up between Dobbins, Mark Ingram, and Gus Edwards. I’d be comfortable with Dobbins in my flex spot this week and would be surprised if he ends up with at least 10 touches.

RB Antonio Gibson, WAS (Wk. 4: vs. Bal.): On the other side of the Ravens – Football Team game, Antonio Gibson could be hard-pressed to put up a solid game. JD McKissic out-snapped Gibson 34-to-26 in a game where Washington played from well behind against Cleveland. The game script should be similar in this game, so we could see more of McKissic again. The Ravens have allowed the 4^th-fewest RB points per game so far this season and allowed the 6^th-fewest in 2019. Volume should keep Gibson on the flex radar this week, but I’d prefer to keep him benched if you can.

RB Josh Kelley, LAC (Wk. 4: @TB): I list Kelley in the borderline section this week, but I’d lean more towards sitting him than playing him this week. Tampa is favored by a touchdown, and with the Bolts playing from behind last week Kelley was out-snapped by Austin Ekeler 56-to-23. Kelley did lose a fumble in that game and it may have played a part in his limited snaps, but it looks like Ekeler will see a bit of a bump in playing time when the Chargers play from behind. Tampa is one of the strongest run defenses in the league, ranking 1^st in run defense DVOA in 2019, and 5^th so far this year. They have allowed 8 receptions per game to opposing backs this season, but just 50 rushing yards per game. It would likely take a touchdown for Kelley to be helpful to your team this week, and the Chargers have one of the lowest implied point totals of the week at 18.25. I’d try and steer clear of Kelley unless you’re in a bind due to injuries.

WR Justin Jefferson, MIN (Wk. 4: @Hou.): What a week for Justin Jefferson last Sunday. His monster 7-175-1 performance came seemingly out of nowhere. His yardage total was 62 yards more than the TOTAL number of passing yards Kirk Cousins threw for in week 2, and Jefferson now has accounted for 60% of the Vikings receiving yards in the last 2 games. You’d be crazy to count on Jefferson to repeat what he did last Sunday, but he gets a pretty decent matchup and should be a solid upside WR3 option this week. The Texans have been worse against the run than the pass, but they’ve been poor against both. It is worth noting that Bisi Johnson unexpectedly played only a few snaps on Sunday, so keep your ear to the ground on that if you plan to start Jefferson. I think it’s safe to say Jefferson has fully moved into the WR2 role after what he did last weekend, but it was still strange to see Johnson barely play after being on the field for more than 60% of the offensive snaps each of the first two weeks.

WR Tee Higgins, CIN (Wk. 4: @Jax.): Higgins had a breakout game in week 3 against the Eagles, finishing with 2 touchdowns and over 20 PPR points. He actually led all Bengals’ receivers in snaps for the game and should continue to play a full-time role after posting such positive results. The Jaguars have struggled to limit opposing passing attacks, ranking dead last in pass-defense DVOA, and Higgins will continue to be heavily involved in the Cincy game plan. 50 yards feels like his floor in this matchup. I would be comfortable firing up Higgins as a flex or WR3 this week.

WR Jerry Jeudy, DEN (Wk. 4: @NYJ): Jeudy’s role as the #1 WR in Denver gives him some flex upside, especially in a matchup against a Jets defense that ranks 31^st in pass defense DVOA. Unfortunately, he also has a QB making his first career start under center in Brett Rypien. Rypien doesn’t have a big arm, and I wouldn’t expect Denver to air it out too much in this one. Melvin Gordon and Royce Freeman should see a lot of work, and I expect Rypien’s best friend in the passing game to be tight end Noah Fant. I could see Jeudy finishing with 3-4 catches for 50-60 yards, but anything more than that should be considered a bonus.

WR Laviska Shenault, JAX (Wk. 4: vs. Cin.): Shenault was a bit of a let down in week 3, not exactly having the breakout game that many called for on Thursday. It was especially frustrating to see him playing behind Chris Conley, who seemed to fill the DJ Chark role in the offense. If Chark returns this week, it should make the offense more successful as a whole and help open things up for the rest of the team. Cincinnati’s pass defense is off to a good start in 2020, but they haven’t exactly faced a murderer’s row of passing attacks. They’re more beatable than the numbers suggest. I’d look for Shenault to see 6 or so targets in this one and be a decent flex option in 12-team formats or deeper.

WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (Wk. 4: @LV): Davis has quickly ascended the Bills’ depth chart and may see an even bigger role this week with John Brown’s status up in the air. Buffalo has surprisingly been pass-happy so far this season, ranking 9^th in pass percentage (They ranked 26^th in 2019). The Raiders are 18^th in pass defense DVOA so far this year but were 31^st a year ago. I think Davis has a good chance to repeat his performance from last week and top 10 PPR points once again if Brown sits. For the season, he has caught every target that has come his way. That’s the kind of performance that gets you more targets.

WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF (Wk. 4: vs. Phi.): Aiyuk has a bit of a breakout game in week 3, finishing just ahead of Tee Higgins as the WR13 for the week, but he may crash back to earth a bit this week. The 49ers have had the fun of playing two of the worst secondaries in the league in the Jets and Giants in weeks 2 & 3, but this week Aiyuk will probably be squaring off with Darius Slay, who is still one of the better lockdown corners in the league. With Deebo Samuel still sidelined, Aiyuk is the de facto #1 receiver for the 49ers, so he’ll be the one getting the defensive attention from Slay. I’d expect he’ll still see a handful of targets come his way, but I don’t expect another top-15 finish. I wouldn’t be eager to roll Aiyuk out there outside of deep leagues this week.

Rookies to Sit:

QB Justin Herbert, LAC (Wk. 4: @TB): Most of the press clippings out of Tampa Bay focus on the offensive weapons on the roster, but their defense has been very underrated going back to the start of last season. They ranked a respectable 13^th in pass defense DVOA in 2019, and have improved to 3^rd so far in 2020. They’ve also allowed the 4^th-fewest QB points per game. Herbert has thrown for over 300 yards in each of his first 2 starts, but I’d be surprised if he makes it 3-for-3. Tampa has held 2 of their first 3 opponents under 200 passing yards. As a 7-point underdog, the Chargers should be throwing the ball a bit, but I’d look at Herbert as a desperation QB2 this week.

RB D’Andre Swift, DET (Wk. 4: vs. NO): I like the pass-catching skills Swift brings at RB, but Detroit’s backfield is shaping up to look a lot like the New England backfields we used to see a few years back, where you never knew from week-to-week which back was going to get the bulk of the work. Swift barely played last week, and while this week’s matchup looks like one where Detroit will be throwing plenty, I’d be hesitant to trust Swift in your fantasy lineups until we know his usage is a little more predictable. Swift played just 6 offensive snaps in week 3 and has seen his share decline each week so far.

RB Cam Akers, LAR (Wk. 4: vs. NYG): Akers’ status for week 4 is still in the air with him not practicing as of Wednesday, but I’d avoid playing him if he is able to play even in what seems like a plus matchup. The Giants have allowed the 10^th-most running back points per game through the first 3 weeks, and the Rams are likely to be playing from ahead as a whopping 12.5-point favorite. Unfortunately for Akers, his time on the sideline has allowed Darrell Henderson to grab the starting job and run with it. Henderson has reached 120 scrimmage yards and a TD in each of the last 2 weeks, and coach McVay has said he’s earned a start in week 4. There’s always a chance in this offense that Akers gets a hot hand and gets some extra run, or gets some garbage-time work, but that’s not something I want to rely on for fantasy production.

RB LaMical Perine, NYJ (Wk. 4: vs. Den.): Frank Gore continues to defy the football gods and play a large offensive role into his late 30s, and Perine can’t even effectively hold off Kalen Ballage for the backup role. Both played a pretty even split of snaps in week 3. The Jets finally get an opponent that is closer to their talent level in week 4, but this game is going to be U-G-L-Y. The Jets rank dead last in the league in both offensive yards and points scored, and Denver has allowed the 7^th-fewest RB points per game. You do not want to roll the dice on a guy splitting backup work in that offense, in that matchup. Aim higher.

RB DeeJay Dallas, SEA (Wk. 4: @Mia.): Chris Carson suffered an injury on Sunday that could keep him sidelined for the next week or two, but that isn’t a good reason for DeeJay Dallas to be on your radar. I’d expect Carlos Hyde to handle the early-down work and Travis Homer to be the 3^rd down back while Carson is out, and would only expect Dallas to mix in occasionally. Seattle is likely to steamroll the Dolphins in this game, so there could be some garbage time opportunity for the rookie against a bad run defense, but it’s hard to count on him getting more than a handful of touches.

WR Darnell Mooney, CHI (Wk. 4: vs. Ind.): Mooney has gotten off to a surprising start this season, already taking over the number 2 receiver role in the offense. I don’t think this is the week to trot him out there in fantasy lineups though. The Colts rank first in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 5^th-fewest WR points per game so far. We also haven’t seen how this offense will function with Nick Foles installed as the starting QB. I’d keep Mooney sidelined for now in all formats.

WR Antonio Gandy-Golden, WAS (Wk. 4: vs. Bal.): Washington is banged up at wide receiver with Dontrelle Inman and Steven Sims both appearing to be on the wrong side of questionable in this game. That should mean a sizable snap count for Gandy-Golden, but I wouldn’t count on him cashing in on that opportunity against the Ravens. Baltimore’s secondary will be eager to show that their Monday night meltdown against Kansas City was an aberration, and Gandy-Golden doesn’t have Pat Mahomes throwing him the ball. Baltimore’s overall pass defense numbers don’t look great so far this year, but they’re skewed by what happened on Monday night. They ranked 4^th in pass defense DVOA in 2019. Terry McLaurin is the only Washington receiver who should be considered this week.

WRs Henry Ruggs & Bryan Edwards, LV (Wk. 4: vs. Buf.): Both Ruggs and Edwards are not practicing as of Thursday, and the Bills boast one of the better secondaries in the league. Buffalo hasn’t been quite as sharp against the pass so far this year as they were a year ago, ranking 15^th in pass defense DVOA so far, but Vegas doesn’t funnel the ball to their receivers even when they’re healthy. Steer clear of both rookies here this week.

WR Van Jefferson, LAR (Wk. 4: vs. NYG): Jefferson’s preseason hype has faded fast in the regular season. Each week this season Jefferson has seen his snap share drop and Josh Reynolds’ share increase. Reynolds played 90% of the offensive snaps in week 3 to just 12% for Jefferson. It’s hard to say how much the game flow had to do with that since the Rams were in a deep hole for much of the game, but I know that after a week like that Jefferson isn’t a guy that I want to target in my fantasy lineups. The Giants are a very burnable pass defense, but you can’t count on Van to have a big opportunity to take advantage.

Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:

RB Zack Moss, BUF (Wk. 4: @LV): Moss looks likely to play this week, and it couldn’t have come at a better time for the rookie. The Raiders have allowed more running back points per game than any other defense and were just shredded by plodder Sony Michel a week ago. I’d expect Moss to return to his goal line and short-yardage role this week and think he has a decent chance to turn it into a better than expected game. A top-25 finish wouldn’t be shocking.

RB AJ Dillon, GB (Wk. 4: vs. Atl.): This is more of a hunch than anything, but this game could go sideways on the Falcons. The Packers are favored by a touchdown and have a ridiculous implied total of 32.5 points, and Atlanta could be without Calvin Ridley, Julio Jones, and Russell Gage. All 3 are questionable for Monday. The extra day may give them a chance to get right, but we’ve seen the Falcons’ defense hasn’t really slowed anyone down. If the offense is hampered at all, this could be a blowout, and I think we could see a decent amount of Dillon in garbage time. The Falcons are a middling run defense at 17^th in run defense DVOA on the year, so an extended run for Dillon could result in a nice game. I don’t know what format I’d suggest playing him this week – maybe a single-game DFS tournament, but I do like his chances at a solid game.

WR KJ Hamler, DEN (Wk. 4: @NYJ): Hamler has been targeted 12 times in the last 2 games, and despite having untested Brett Rypien at QB, he still gets to play the Jets’ barely there secondary. I don’t expect a ton of passing volume from the Broncos, but given Hamler’s speed and playmaking ability, I think he has a better shot at breaking a long touchdown than teammate Jerry Jeudy. He’s a shoot-the-moon option in DFS tournaments in this one.

WR John Hightower, PHI (Wk. 4: @SF): Hightower’s outlook for this week took a bit of a hit on Thursday as he missed practice with an injury, but if he’s able to play this week it seems very likely he will be Philly’s number 2 receiver behind Greg Ward. The 49ers are a stingy pass defense but are still without Richard Sherman. If Hightower plays, he’s probably only an option in the deepest of leagues, but he could be enticing as a minimum priced option if you’re playing in a showdown tournament for the Sunday night game. The Eagles will have to throw the ball to somebody, and with so many injuries Hightower might only be behind Zach Ertz, Miles Sanders, and Greg Ward in the target pecking order in a game where they are a 7-point underdog.

WR Tyler Johnson, TB (Wk. 4: vs. LAC): Johnson saw his first significant game action of the season in week 3 getting on the field for 21 offensive snaps, and the Bucs may be without two of Tom Brady’s favorite targets this week in Chris Godwin and Scotty Miller. Johnson would undoubtedly slide into 3-WR sets along with Mike Evans and Justin Watson if both Godwin and Miller are out, and the Chargers allow the 8^th-most WR points per game. Johnson wasn’t targeted in last week’s game (outside of one that was negated by a penalty), but Brady threw just 4 pass attempts in the last 20 minutes of game time, when Johnson saw most of his playing time. I’d expect him to record his first few catches of the season this week if Godwin and Miller both sit. He was a wildly productive player in college, so he’s a player to monitor this week for those of you in dynasty leagues.

TE Harrison Bryant, CLE (Wk. 4: @Dal.): Bryant has seen his snap % increase every single game, and while he’s only been catching one ball per week, that’s not much less than Austin Hooper is seeing. The Cowboys have been vulnerable to tight ends, allowing the 8^th-most points to the position this year and the 3^rd most last year. Bryant isn’t a guy you should consider for season-long leagues, but he’s a sneaky TD dart throw if you’re punting on tight end in DFS.

That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully, it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions of the week involving rookies. Keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and make sure you don’t end up starting any inactive players. If you want to yell at me about anything written above or have any questions for me feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut and have fun. It’s just a game.

Details

Written by Tad Bukowski

Created: 01 October 2020

• nfl
• Confidence Pool
• aaron rodgers
• week 4
• green bay packers
• tampa bay buccaneers
• los angeles rams

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Written by Jason Evans

Created: 01 October 2020

• nfl
• keenan allen
• week 4
• jerick mckinnon
• james robinson
• justin jefferson
• trending up

Three weeks are in the books, and that means that it's time for us to check out some player trends. After all, in a row does a trend make. Or at least that's what Dave says. Anyways, there's been a ton of points this season, so let's take this time to look at the players who are consistently improving on a weekly basis. These are guys who are both studs that you might expect to see atop the fantasy rankings, and guys who are moving their way up from the depths of the preseason ADP charts.

James Robinson (RB-JAX) – Wk 1 vs IND – 9.5, Wk 2 @ TEN – 19.5, Wk 3 vs MIA – 27.9. Robinson was the lone bright spot on the Jaguars last week. He has trended up for three weeks in a row in lots of categories – total yards, total points, touchdowns scored and even receptions. He is averaging 4.9 yards per carry, he is in the top 20 for both carries and receptions. He’s the overall RB5 on the season. There’s almost no competition for him at his position on the Jaguars, so Robinson looks like he needs to be an every week starter. Coming up, Jacksonville goes to Cincy and Houston, followed by playing Detroit at home before their bye week. All of these teams are in the top 7 when it comes to giving up the most fantasy points to opposing RBs. Now is the time to try and acquire Robinson, as his value is only bound to go up.

Jerick McKinnon (RB-SF) – Wk1 vs ARI – 11.9, Wk 2 @ NYJ – 13.7, Wk 3 @ NYG – 15.2. McKinnon has scored a touchdown in all 3 games so far this season, a great trend for fantasy football. It may even hold for a while considering how banged up the 49ers backfield is. He was used sparingly in the first two weeks, getting only 9 total touches, though he was also used in the return game a bit. With nobody else to take carries from him last week, he had 17 total touches. That’s a usage rate that I expect to continue as long as Coleman and Mostert are sidelined. Even when they come back, it seems as though McKinnon will see some touches, and if his knack for scoring touchdowns continues, it would be silly to keep him on the sidelines. Coming up the 49ers have 3 straight home games against Philly, Miami and the Rams, all of whom are middle of the pack when it comes to giving up points to opposing RBs.

Justin Jefferson (WR-MIN) – Wk 1 vs GB – 3.6, Wk 2 @ IND – 5.9, Wk 3 vs TEN – 27. Jefferson was the Vikings 1^st round pick this year and he has been thrown right into the offense. He’s increased his receptions, targets and yards each week, topping out last week with 7 receptions on 9 targets for 175 yards. He also found the end zone and his 27 points made him the WR2 on the week. There is a Stefon Diggs sized hole on the Vikings offense, and Jefferson looks like he might fill it very nicely. Coming up are games at Houston and Seattle, followed by Atlanta at home and then the bye week. Houston is halfway respectable against the WR, but Seattle and Atlanta are giving up the 1^st and 3^rd most points to opposing WRs, respectively. It’s time to get Jefferson on your team and into your lineup.

Keenan Allen (WR-LAC) – Wk 1 @ CIN – 5.7, Wk 2 vs KC – 13.1, Wk 3 vs CAR – 23.7. Allen is known as one of the players with the largest share of his team’s targets on an annual basis. He is currently tied with DeAndre Hopkins with a league leading 37 targets. His targets, receptions and yardage have all gone up week to week. Last week he added on a touchdown to make him WR4 on the week and WR12 on the season. Allen catching 13 passes on 19 targets from rookie Justin Herbert is a great sign as well. The distribution of the targets can suddenly shift when a new QB enters the scene, however it looks like Herbert is firmly focused on his top WR now. Upcoming games in Tampa and New Orleans, followed by hosting the Jets will all be tough. Tampa gives up the 12^th fewest fantasy points to opposing WRs, and they’re the least stingy of that group. I guess we finally found something that the Jets don’t suck at. Still, Allen is a solid WR1 and needs to be in your lineup every week, regardless of who is at QB for the Chargers.

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Written by David Biggs

Created: 01 October 2020

• fantasy football
• nfl
• week 4
• player trends
• robby anderson
• kenyan drake
• lamar jackson
• marquise brown

After 3 weeks of play, we can always draw some conclusions based on trends that are observed over the first few games. In this case, I've chosen a few players that have downward trends associated with their performances in Weeks 1-3. We'll see what comes to pass, but don't ignore the trends once they reach 3+ games - after a certain period of time they are statistically likely to continue or level off rather than to reverse course. Is it just about the matchups? Is it about a certain style of play or what schemes the coaches are running? Draw your own conclusions, of course, but use the information below to help with that as you see fit.

Lamar Jackson (QB, BAL) – Surprise! Jackson finished the 2019 fantasy season as the #1 QB overall with a ridiculous 421.7 fantasy points. The next best was Dak Prescott with 348.9 points. Crazy, right? Well, so far in 2020, Jackson is the #13 QB overall with only 19.8 fantasy points per game (59.3 total). For reference, the QBs on the top like Wilson, Allen, Mahomes, Prescott, and Murray are all averaging around 30 fantasy points per game through the first three games.

Week 1 (vs. CLE): 20/25, 80% comp, 275 yards, 3 TDs, 7/45 rushing, 0 TDs – 27.5 fpts

Week 2 (@ HOU): 18/24, 75% comp, 204 yards, 1 TD, 16/54 rushing, 0 TDs – 17.56 fpts

Week 3 (vs. KC): 15/28, 53.6% comp, 97 yards, 1 TD, 9/83 rushing, 0 TDs – 14.18 fpts

What information can we garner from these stats? Well, Jackson has been trending down in several categories game over game: completions, completion percentage, and passing yards. Granted the Texans and Chiefs have better passing defenses than the Browns so far this season (at #20 and #17 highest fantasy points against QBs respectively vs. #10 for the Browns), but it’s disconcerting to see him not even break into the top 10 when he was being drafted in as high as the 1^st and 2^nd rounds of fantasy drafts earlier this year. Ouch. All of that said, what is the prognosis for Jackson over the coming weeks? He plays @WAS in Week 4 (#14 fantasy points against QBs), vs. CIN in Week 5 (#25 fantasy points against QBS), and @PHI in Week 6 (#19 fantasy points against QBs). Does it get better? Not really... in the weeks that follow, the Ravens play PIT, IND, NE, and TEN. You are going to keep Jackson on your squad because of his rushing and big play ability, but it is impossible to ignore this downturn. Week 4 is Jackson’s chance to bust out with a big fantasy game and experts still have him on top of the QB heap, but if it is a miss as well there is something not quite right in Baltimore. Run-first is a philosophy we can deal with – run-always is a problem. Marquise Brown is also tied in to this directly with Jackson as the WR1 in Baltimore (12.6, 6.7, 2.3)

Kenyan Drake (RB, ARI) – Drake had a fabulous finish to the 2019 season. He was traded to the Cardinals before Week 9 last year and immediately made his mark on the offense, putting up 162 all-purpose yards and a TD on the ground. Later that same season in Weeks 15-17, he amassed 363 rushing yards along with 7 TDs over those 3 games. It was hard to believe, but those points were very real. Especially to fantasy team managers that were playing against Drake late in the post-season. So far this year, though, he is the #24 RB overall with 32.4 fantasy points (half PPR) which is an average of 10.8 per game. For a running back being drafted in the 2^nd or 3^rd round earlier this year, that is very disappointing. Let us look at the first 3 games of the 2020 season:

Week 1 (@ SF): 16/60 rushing, 1 TD, 2/5 receiving, 0 TDs – 13.5 fpts

Week 2 (vs. WAS): 20/86 rushing, 0 TDs, 2/9 receiving, 0 TDs – 10.5 fpts

Week 3 (vs. DET): 18/73 rushing, 0 TDs, 1/6 receiving, 0 TDs – 8.4 fpts

What can we learn from this information… well, his amount of touches has been consistent – averaging around 20 per game, so he has the opportunities available to him. He has not gotten very much work in the passing game with Chase Edmonds being a factor (8 receptions including 1 rec. TD in the first 3 games), but the major problem with fantasy production has been his inability to break big plays during the game. This may all change this week, of course. Going up against the Carolina Panthers in Week 4 provides a terrific matchup. The Panthers are giving up 32.2 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. If Drake cannot snap out of this funk in Week 4, his value will plummet, and we may see Edmonds start to chip away at his touches. If I had to bet money on this matchup, though, and I basically am since I’m both playing him and playing against him in multiple fantasy matchups this week, I would say we’re about to see Drake’s biggest game of the season. Could be 15-20 fantasy points in this trend-breaker.

Robby Anderson (WR, CAR) – A brand new weapon for the Panthers, Anderson had more than 100 yards in both weeks 1 and 2. The tallest of the starting receivers in Carolina at 6’3” and also coming with a bonus sub-4.4 40-yard dash that we saw often with his time on the Jets.

Week 1 (vs. LV): 6/8, 114 yds, 1 TD – 22.4 fpts

Week 2 (@ TB): 9/10, 109 yds, 0 TD – 13.4 fpts

Week 3 (@ LAC): 5/5, 55 yds, 0 TD – 8 fpts

With the Chargers focusing on taking D.J. Moore away, Anderson again took a large amount of the team’s targets (the most, actually) and was able to haul in all of them for 5 receptions. The Panthers were able to cruise to a victory using mostly Mike Davis and Joey Slye, but we should continue to see Anderson utilized in the passing game and developing more chemistry with Bridgewater from game to game. Anderson is being used constantly on this team and less of the boom/bust target he was on the Jets, so he seems to be a quality WR3 candidate going forward. His next matchup in Week 4 is against a stingy Arizona passing defense allowing only 15.5 fantasy points per game to WRs, but Week 5 looks like a much tastier matchup against the Falcons who have the 3^rd worst passing D in the league.

Details

Written by David Biggs

Created: 29 September 2020

• fantasy football
• new orleans saints
• drew brees
• week 4 rankings
• julian edelman
• tyler eifert
• joe mixon
• kenny golladay
• 2020 rankings
• redraft rankings

One more week in the books and we had some predictable outcomes - most notably on Monday Night Football with the Chiefs just tearing it up offensively. Hello, Patrick Mahomes! A few rookie wide receiver breakouts (here's looking at you, Justin Jefferson), and injuries are important to keep in mind as we go through another cycle of waiver wire pickups and lineups being set for Week 4. Listen to the Fantasy Finish Line podcast to stay on top of the latest news and analysis - we broadcast live on YouTube (just starting this week, actually!) weekly on Wednesdays at 9pm CT.

Guys that jump out to me this week to overperform expectations: Drew Brees, Joe Mixon, Kenny Golladay, Julian Edelman, Tyler Eifert, and New Orleans (DST).

Pay attention to these rankings throughout the season, as they will continue to evolve based on the latest injury updates, news, and player analysis. Have any specific lineup questions? Feel free to tweet us @drinkfive with any of your questions or comments!