Fantasy Football / NFL
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- Written by Troy Maples
Bit of a rough week going 1-2 on the drinkfive best bets last week. Let’s look to bounce back in week 3 with a little bit more knowledge and some great trends to take advantage of. Underdogs regressed a little bit in week 2, however on the season dogs are an impressive 21-11 ATS. It’s still early in the season but there is a trend worth noting that is gaining some legs in the sports betting community; home field advantage does not seem to be as much of an advantage. Home teams are 16-16 straight up and 13-19 ATS through the first two weeks. What is eye opening, and worth tracking, is that home favorites are only 5-13 heading into week 3. 11 of the 16 games in week 3 have home favorites. High performing dogs plus underperforming home favorites; it’s a contrarian’s wet dream!
Miami +4.5 at Las Vegas:
The line for this game has been all over the place this week as both teams had questions regarding their quarterbacks. As of writing this the line is up to 4.5 and I am jumping on what I think is a severe over reaction. Miami got shut out last week and the Raiders are 2-0 so immediately there is contrarian value. Even though this line has bounced around due to injury concerns it opened at 5.5 and, even with clarity on the starting QB situation for both teams, it's down to 4.5. Despite having a backup QB start and only 26% of the tickets the line has never come close to going back to the original open of 5.5. I also see this as an overreaction play. Miami was shutout last week while there is suddenly, and embarrassingly, MVP talk surrounding Derek Carr after the Raiders 2-0 start. If that doesn’t scream over reaction I don’t know what does. The icing on top is Gruden’s 31% ATS record after multiple straight up wins.
Green Bay +3.5 at San Francisco:
There is some recent history between the Packers and the 49ers out in San Francisco. This will be the fourth meeting in 3 years at Levi’s Stadium. In 2019 the 49ers took care of business, while last year the Packers got their revenge. This is a rare popular dog with 63% of the bets coming in on the Packers and the line movement reflects that after dropping from 4 to its current line of 3. Tracking the line, I have seen what appears to be sharp buyback at 3, which is why I am recommending this pick at 3.5. As of writing this the line is juiced -120 to the favorite so I think there is a good chance 3.5 shows back up. There are a couple of trends that help tip the scales for me in this one too. Shanahan is only 22% (2-7 ATS) in his first game at home after coming off a multi-game road trip and he is only 31% ATS as a favorite in the last 27 games. Ultimately it would not surprise me to see Green Bay win this one outright, so of course I am going to take the points. San Francisco is dealing with tons of injuries and has not had a particularly confident win yet this season. Green Bay may have let the Lions stick around a bit longer than anticipated, but in the end, Aaron Rodgers did what future Hall of Famers do and found a way to confidently win the game with what was given to him.
Tampa Bay -1.5 at Los Angeles Rams:
Tampa Bay is the public play and I am jumping on the bandwagon. There is a pro system that I like to follow on this one too; that is the dog to favorite system. Tampa Bay opened up as a +1.5 point road dog, however this line has been flipped and now Tampa is the -1.5 favorite. The dog to favorite system can be tricky, but ultimately it boils down to line movement and the public rarely moves lines, sharps move lines. The line currently sits at 1.5 and honestly, I am going to wait until the weekend to see if there is some buy back on the Rams now that it has moved so much. Aside from the line movement the Buccaneers are playing great football and are enjoying a 10 game winning streak dating back to last season. The Rams have looked good being led by Matt Stafford this year, but ultimately, they don’t have a signature win yet. Wins against Chicago and Indianapolis aren’t enough for me to fade the GOAT and reigning Super Bowl Champs.
There is a profitable 0-2 ATS trend worth considering this week with 5 teams starting the season 0-2 ATS. Over the last 5 seasons teams that start 0-2 ATS are 26-12 ATS in week 3. Washington, New York Jets, Kansas City, Jacksonville and Atlanta all fit the trend this week. I could make an argument for Atlanta +3 at the New York Giants and Washington is clearly the sharp play at Buffalo after opening +9 and being bet down to +7/+7.5. Kansas City joining that list is honestly what makes the Chiefs Chargers game tough for me. KC has been bad ATS for longer than 2 games and ultimately, I do think the Chargers have value at 6.5, so do the books apparently who are not moving the line to the key number of 7 despite 71% of the bets and 79% of the money on the Chiefs.
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- Written by Shawn Foss
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! The first two weeks of the NFL season have been anything but predictable, but hopefully you were able to navigate the craziness and get a win or two in the process. Some of this year’s rookies had wild swings from week 1 to week 2. Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson both put up strong performances in their debuts and crashed back to earth in week 2. DeVonta Smith followed up a PPR WR19 finish in week 1 by finishing as the WR81 in week 2. Najee Harris had a big bounce back performance in week 2 as he finished as the RB8 and Rondale Moore built on his solid debut with a monster game as well. We also saw more modest bounce backs from Javonte Williams, Elijah Moore, Kyle Pitts and Dyami Brown. What does this all mean for week 3? That’s what we’re here to discuss.
A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game references and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 3…
Rookies to Start:
RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 3: vs. Cin.): Najee had the bounce-back game we hoped for in week 2, finishing the week as the PPR RB7 with 19.1 points. He continued to dominate the backfield playing time, seeing the field on 95% of the offensive snaps. That usage isn’t going anywhere. The Bengals are actually a tough RB matchup. They’ve allowed just 65 running back rushing yards per game and rank 2nd in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat, but they’ve also allowed 8 running back receptions per game. Harris hauled in 5 passes last week and should be in line for a nice receiving workload again with Diontae Johnson potentially sidelined. He’s a locked-in RB1 this week in PPR formats, and a solid RB2 in half- and non-PPR.
TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 3: @NYG): Pitts saw his share of the targets and air yards come down in week 2 against the Bucs but saw his fantasy production go up as he finished with 5 catches for 73 yards on 6 targets. These are the kinds of performances that can help Pitts cash in on the draft capital you spent on him, but he’ll need to find the end zone along the way as well. This week’s matchup with the Giants is a favorable one. New York has allowed the 4th-most TE points per game so far, but they’ve had a weird trend in their first two contests. In both games, the starting tight end hauled in at least 5 receptions and 45 yards, but in each game, it was the backup TE that found the end zone. If that trend holds, Hayden Hurst may be a nice play in limited slate DFS lineups. I’d still look for Pitts to be in the 6-7 target range, and likely finish as a top-10 TE on the week again. He should be started if you have him.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Justin Fields, CHI (Wk. 3: @Cle.): An injury to Andy Dalton opens the door for Fields to make his first NFL start this Sunday, and he gets what should be a favorable matchup against the Browns. The Browns allowed the 7th-most QB points per game in 2020 and have picked up where they left off this season. It’s excusable to have issues slowing down Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Tyrod Taylor, Davis Mills and the Texans, however? That’s another story. The Texans’ QBs combined for 23 and a half fantasy points last weekend, which would’ve been good enough for the QB9 for the week if they were one player. Fields flashed some of his playmaking abilities against the Bengals but failed to find the end zone. I’d expect that to change. It was promising to see the Bears call 3 designed runs for Fields. He also took off on 4 scrambles and finished with 31 rushing yards after 3 kneel downs to end the game. That rushing upside is a big part of why he’s a strong option this week. The Browns allowed the 4th-most QB rushing yards per game a season ago and have given up a QB rushing score each week this season. Fields has the weapons and matchup to post a strong starting debut. I wouldn’t start him over any of the proven stud QBs, but he’s in play as a high-risk/high-reward fringe QB1 in 12-team leagues.
QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 3: vs. Ari.): Lawrence has proven to be a volatile option in the first two weeks of the season, but he’s been aggressive to a fault. Only Derek Carr has thrown for more intended air yards through the first two weeks than Trevor. The Jaguars’ offensive line has done a nice job keeping him upright, allowing the 8th-lowest pressure rate in the league. The rookie just needs to be willing to take what the defense gives him more often instead of forcing it downfield. Jacksonville is a touchdown underdog this week, so there should be plenty of passing volume again, and that willingness to sling it downfield gives Lawrence big upside. Arizona ranks 8th in pass defense DVOA for the year but allowed Kirk Cousins to finish as the QB6 in week 2. There is plenty of risk here, but T-Law’s upside has him in play as a QB2 this week for me.
RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 3: vs. NYJ): Williams has been one of my favorite candidates to break out for a couple weeks now, and so far, it hasn’t quite happened for him. I’m going to scale back the excitement this week after Melvin Gordon played a bigger share of the snaps than Williams last Sunday, but I still think this is a nice spot for Williams to have a strong game. Javonte ranks 2nd in the NFL at forced missed tackles per carry (behind only Nick Chubb), and even though he played fewer snaps than Gordon last week they each handled the same number of carries. The Jets rank just 26th in run defense DVOA through two weeks and the Broncos are favored by double-digits. There should be plenty of rushing volume for Denver. I expect Javonte to clear 70 scrimmage yards in this game, and he has a great chance to score his first career TD. If he gets in the end zone, he’ll likely finish as an RB2 or better.
RB Elijah Mitchell, SF (Wk. 3: vs.GB): Mitchell suffered a shoulder injury late last weekend and is listed as questionable, but he’s likely to be the lead back again for the 49ers if he’s able to play. He seems to be much more likely to suit up than fellow rookie Trey Sermon, and it’ll be a messy backfield situation if neither is able to play. Mitchell had an inefficient day against the Eagles last week but should find the sledding easier against Green Bay. The Packers have been a lackluster run defense so far, ranking 25th in run defense DVOA. Mitchell’s lack of receiving upside puts a cap on expectations here, but he should be a solid RB3 option if he is in fact able to play this week. Keep an eye on the injury updates with this one.
WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 3: @Pit.): Chase found the end zone for the second game in a row last Sunday, but as expected his target volume dropped off as Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins had easier individual matchups. Chase leads the team in routes run for the season, but there will be ebbs & flows in this WR group since Chase has two very capable teammates. Ja’Marr again gets the toughest individual matchup of the Bengals’ receivers this week against Cameron Sutton, but Sutton has been far from dominant. He’s allowed just 7 yards per target into his coverage, but also a 77% completion percentage and 121 passer rating on those throws. My bigger concern for Chase is if the Bengals’ o-line will give Burrow enough time for Chase’s deeper routes to develop. Chase has an average target depth of 17.9 yards for the season. The Steelers have the 3rd-highest QB pressure rate so far and the Bengals have allowed QB pressure at the 5th-highest rate. It only takes one or two deep balls to connect for Chase to have a boom week. I’d view him as an upside WR3 option this week but keep an eye on the status of Tee Higgins. Higgins didn’t practice on Thursday. Chase will have a much safer floor if Higgins winds up sidelined.
WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 3: @Dal.): Smith’s week 2 stat line was a painful one if he was in your lineups. The rookie tallied just 2 receptions for 16 yards to follow up on a splashy debut in week 1. Don’t get too discouraged. The passing game continued to run through Smith. 30% of the team passing targets and 46% of the intended air yards went in DeVonta’s direction on Sunday. It’s frustrating that those targets didn’t connect, but Smith is going to have a big weekly ceiling. In week 3 in Dallas, Smith will match up mostly with Cowboys’ top corner Trevon Diggs. Diggs has been excellent through 2 weeks, allowing just a 35.8 passer rating and 7.6 yards per target on throws into his coverage. It’s that matchup that prevents me from making Smith a full-blown start this week. I’d view him as more of a WR4 or flex play. The volume will be there again.
WR Rondale Moore, ARI (Wk. 3: @Jax.): Moore has been the hottest name on the waiver wire this week after scoring a long scramble drill TD against Minnesota. He’s been productive in each of his first two games, posting 4-68 in week 1, and 7-114-1 in week 2, but there may be a little bit of fool’s gold in those week 2 numbers. He’s still running as the WR4 in this offense. He played fewer snaps than any of Nuk Hopkins, AJ Green, and Christian Kirk. Moore’s increase in playing time came at the expense of tight end Demetrius Harris, but his targets came at the expense of the other receivers. That isn’t going to be the case every week. DeAndre Hopkins is going to get his volume. For Rondale to continue putting up big fantasy performances, he’s going to have to continue getting outsized target shares for his playing time. It’s possible he does that but be aware of the risk if you picked up Rondale. The Jaguars’ defense isn’t a good one. They rank 28th in pass defense DVOA, so there should be plenty of opportunities for fantasy goodness here, but I wouldn’t be plugging Moore in ahead of proven top-24 WRs just yet.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 3: vs. NO): Jones is living up to expectations as an efficient but unexciting signal-caller so far in his rookie season. He’s completed an impressive 74% of his passes but averages just 6.8 yards per attempts and has put the ball in end zone just once. He gets his stiffest test yet this week, facing off with a New Orleans defense that has allowed the 4th-fewest QB points through the first two weeks. I expect him to continue to be efficient and conservative with the ball, and don’t expect him to finish any higher than a low-end QB2 once again.
QB Zach Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 3: @Den.): We saw what life without Mekhi Becton is going to look like for Wilson last weekend, and it isn’t pretty. He was under pressure often, and still held the ball too long looking for downfield throws rather than taking checkdowns. He was also more off target in week two with Pro-Football Reference crediting him with a 24.2% bad throw rate (he was at 13.9% in week 1) . Wilson was sacked 4 times and threw 4 interceptions against the Patriots, and he faces an arguably tougher secondary this week. Denver ranks 10th in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 7th-fewest QB points per game. They also have a pair of fearsome pass rushers in Von Miller and Bradley Chubb. This is another week where Wilson should be on your bench.
QB Davis Mills, HOU (Wk. 3: vs. Car.): Mills acquitted himself better than expected after being thrust into action against Cleveland last week, throwing his first career TD, but it was hardly an efficient performance. He completed just 44% of his passes and did turn the ball over once. The Browns have been a lackluster defense against QBs dating back to the beginning of last year, but Carolina’s defense has come out of the gates on fire. The Panthers rank 1st in the league in pass defense DVOA, and first in the league in pressure rate on the QB. The addition of Jaycee Horn has given them a strong enough secondary in coverage to allow them to be more aggressive up front, and it’s working. The Texans don’t boast a strong o-line aside from Laremy Tunsil. They’ve allowed the 12th-highest QB pressure rate in the league and Davis Mills doesn’t have the escapability that Tyrod Taylor does in the pocket. Mills will also be missing Nico Collins and Danny Amendola and has a short week to get ready. This all adds up to a rough Thursday night for the rookie QB.
QB Trey Lance, SF (Wk. 3: vs. GB): Lance threw a touchdown pass in the opener against the Lions but didn’t play a single snap in week 2 against the Eagles. It’s clearly not a certainty that we see the Trey Lance packages every week. There are zero formats where it’s a good idea to start the rookie QB this week.
RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 3: @Dal.): For the second straight week Gainwell played about one-third of the Eagles’ offensive snaps while Sanders handled the other two-thirds. The rookie has averaged about 10 touches per game through the first two weeks. That’s not quite enough to consider him a good starting option in most standard leagues, and just enough to consider him if you’re desperate in a deeper league. The Cowboys do look to be much improved on the defensive side of the ball so far this season. They’ve allowed the 9th-fewest running back points per game and don’t jump out as a matchup you should be targeting with Gainwell.
RB Trey Sermon, SF (Wk. 3: vs. GB): Sermon is working his way back from a concussion this week, and he seems less likely to play at this point than teammate Elijah Mitchell. The matchup isn’t a bad one, but I expect Sermon to be the #2 back if he and Mitchell are both able to go. If only Sermon plays of the two, I’d view him as an RB3 option for the week. Keep an eye on the injury updates here as this could be an evolving situation between now and Sunday.
RB Larry Roundtree, LAC (Wk. 3: @KC): Roundtree took a backseat to Justin Jackson in week 2 for the complementary back role behind Austin Ekeler, playing just 10 snaps and handling 2 touches in a loss to the Cowboys. He isn’t going to be heavily involved against Kansas City either.
RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 3: vs. NO): While it would be a very Belichick-ian thing to do to have Stevenson go from a healthy scratch in week 2 to being involved in the gameplan in week 3, you can’t start Stevenson in any format even if he does get the chance to suit up. Even if he were expected to play a bunch, the Saints rank 3rd in run defense DVOA and have allowed the 8th-fewest RB points per game in the first 2 weeks.
WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 3: @LV): Waddle’s season was off to a nice start in week 1, but the injury to QB Tua Tagovailoa puts a bit of a damper on his outlook for week 3. With Tua under center, Waddle saw a 22.6% target share and averaged 10.6 yards per target. After Jacoby Brissett entered last Sunday, those numbers dropped to a 15% target share, and 5.8 yards per target. He does get the most favorable individual matchup of the WRs this week, facing off with slot corner Nate Hobbs. Hobbs has allowed a completion on all 8 throws into his coverage so far this season, but I’d shy away from using Waddle in all but deeper PPR leagues. He already saw his snap share drop by 16% from week 1 to week 2, and the Dolphins expect Will Fuller back for this contest, which should drop Waddle’s playing time even further. There’s a chance Waddle gets peppered with short targets in a game where the Dolphins play from behind, but it’ll be hard to rack up a productive stat line that way.
WR Dyami Brown, WAS (Wk. 3: @Buf.): Taylor Heinicke was very impressive against the Giants last week, but that same Giants’ defense let Teddy Bridgewater pick them apart in week 1. Don’t overreact to it. The Bills are a much more formidable challenge. Brown is playing a full-time role in this offense and was targeted 6 times last week, but the DB he should square off with most often this weekend is Levi Wallace. Wallace has allowed just 3.2 yards per target on throws into his coverage so far this season.
WR Elijah Moore, NYJ (Wk. 3: @Den.): Moore turned in a much better final line in week 2 than he did in the opener, but the Jets’ overall passing game was a mess and things don’t get much easier this week against Denver. Denver leads the league in time of possession through two weeks with Teddy two gloves and their running backs consistently moving the chains, and they should have no trouble playing keep away from the Jets. That will limit New York’s total passing volume, and Moore squares off with veteran corner Kyle Fuller, who has allowed just a 44% completion percentage and 6.8 yards per target on 18 throws into his coverage so far. The Jets have an implied total of just 15.5 points in this game, and that means all their weapons are dodgy options for fantasy this week.
WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Wk. 3: vs. Bal.): In the first two weeks of the season, St. Brown has just 1 reception longer than 7 yards on 9 targets. He did see his target share go up a little bit in week 2, but not enough to make him a useful piece in fantasy lineups. Even with Tyrell Williams sidelined, ARSB remains behind Hockenson, Quintez Cephus, and the pair of running backs in the target pecking order. Add in that the limited targets he’s seeing are low-value targets, and there’s no reason to give him a chance in your lineups this week.
WR Anthony Schwartz, CLE (Wk. 3: vs. Chi.): Schwartz’s big week 1 performance unfortunately didn’t carry over to week 2. He was on the field about the same amount, but the ball just didn’t come his way. The Browns did place Jarvis Landry on IR this week after an injury he suffered against the Texans, but they also expect to get Odell Beckham Jr. back on the field this week. Beckham likely fits into the role Schwartz has been playing. I’d expect Schwartz to be mostly relegated to the bench with Beckham back in the fold, while Donovan Peoples-Jones and Rashard Higgins fill out the WR group in 3-wide receiver sets.
WR Josh Palmer, LAC (Wk. 3: @KC): Palmer saw a slight uptick in playing time in week 2, going from a 17% snap share in the opener to 25% last weekend, but he’s still running well behind Jalen Guyton for the WR3 spot. He’s seen just 3 targets in an offense that ranks 3rd in the NFL in pass attempts so far. Keep him sidelined until that playing time and usage come up.
WR D’Wayne Eskridge, SEA (Wk. 3: @Min.): Eskridge missed week 2 in the concussion protocol, and while he still has a chance to suit up this week, he isn’t practicing as of Wednesday. Russell Wilson has been cooking early on this season with a couple deep connections with Tyler Lockett and a connection with Freddie Swain on a 63-yard score in week 2 as well. Eskridge has that deep threat skill set and the Vikings have allowed 8 completions of 20+ yards through the first two weeks, but you can’t count on Eskridge getting back into the mix given his current injury status.
WR Kadarius Toney, NYG (Wk. 3: vs. Atl.): The Giants get a juicy matchup with a bad Falcons’ defense this week. Evan Engram still isn’t certain to be back, and Kenny Golladay’s status is back in jeopardy after he popped up on the injury report Wednesday. You still shouldn’t be considering Toney after he saw zero targets on 19 week 2 snaps. If he does happen to have a breakout game, I’m willing to let it happen from my bench (or more preferably from the waiver wire).
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
RB Michael Carter, NYJ (Wk. 3: @Den.): On paper the Jets seem to have an evenly split 3-headed backfield committee - all 3 of Ty Johnson, Michael Carter, and Tevin Coleman have handled between 14 and 18 touches. In reality the Jets have a two-man backfield, and Carter has been the best of the pair. Carter and Ty Johnson each handled 12+ touches and reached 50 scrimmage yards in week 2, but it was Carter on the field in the two-minute offense, and on the field for 40% of the long down & distance snaps after Johnson played the overwhelming majority of both in week 1. These are the areas where Carter’s receiving prowess can be best utilized. I’d be hesitant to fire any Jets’ running back up against the Broncos. Denver allows the 2nd-fewest RB points per game so far, but Carter should be stashed in deeper leagues, especially if they’re PPR formats. I’d only consider starting him this week if you’re desperate in a deep PPR league.
RB Demetric Felton, CLE (Wk. 3: vs. Chi.): I’d be hesitant to get Felton into any lineups this Sunday, but he is worth a stash in deeper leagues with Jarvis Landry placed on IR. He has running back eligibility on pretty much all fantasy platforms but has a chance to see a decent number of snaps as a slot receiver while Landry is out. Felton played a lot of receiver during his time at UCLA and scored a highlight-reel touchdown in his first real NFL action last weekend. He could see more opportunity going forward. If you’re in dire straits at running back in a deep PPR league, Felton could be a worthwhile pickup on the chance that he sees significant slot snaps. Rashard Higgins may be that guy as well, but Felton is worth the pick-up to see how it shakes out this week. You don’t want to be the guy spending significant FAAB money on him next week if he does post a nice game when you could’ve picked him up for nothing.
RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Wk. 3: @Hou.): Hubbard got some extended run late last week in a blowout win against the Saints, and he could be in line for a similar opportunity against the Davis Mills-led Texans in week 3. Don’t be discouraged by Hubbard’s inefficient 10 yards on 8 carries against the Saints. New Orleans is one of the stingiest run defenses in the league. They ranked 2nd in run defense DVOA in 2020 and are 3rd so far in 2021. The Texans, on the other hand, rank 31st so far this season. If you read what I wrote above about Davis Mills, you know I think this game can get out of hand. That means a lot of Hubbard late in the game. I think he’s a sneaky play in Thursday night showdown DFS contests. I wouldn’t use him in your captain spot, but his $3,600 price tag on DraftKings for those contests should play just fine, especially if he hits paydirt.
WR Terrace Marshall Jr., CAR (Wk. 3: @Hou.): If you’re playing in any showdown DFS contests for Thursday Night Football, you’re going to want to target players on the Panthers. Carolina is favored by more than a touchdown and has an implied total of more than 25 points as the Texans trot out Davis Mills at QB. DJ Moore and Christian McCaffrey are going to get their volume, but of the remaining options behind them I like Marshall as the receiving option to have the biggest night. The Texans have been better than expected through the first two weeks, especially as a pass defense, but slot corner Desmond King has struggled in the first two weeks. He’s allowed a line of 7-70-1 on just 8 passes into his coverage and received a 52.5 coverage grade from PFF. Outside corners Vernon Hargreaves and Tremon Smith each graded out at 65 or higher through the first two weeks. I’d probably be hesitant to play Marshall in season-long leagues as this could be a run-heavy game for the Panthers and Marshall is the third receiving option at best. In DFS, however, a 50-yard game with a TD could be a big boost in showdown contests.
TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 3: vs. Cin.): It took just two weeks for the Penn State rookie to see more snaps than incumbent starter Eric Ebron for the Steelers. Freiermuth was on the field for 59% of the offensive snaps in week 2 and saw 4 targets come his way. With Diontae Johnson very questionable for week 3, there has been some speculation that James Washington is going to get some extra run, but Big Ben is also battling a pec injury. I’m not sure how well he’ll be able to throw the ball downfield. That could lead the Steelers to lean on shorter throws to players like JuJu, Najee Harris, Freiermuth, and Ebron. The Bengals have allowed the 5th-fewest TE points per game so far but have only faced Tyler Conklin and Cole Kmet. I like Freiermuth’s chances at 5+ targets in this game, and that makes him a sneaky option in deeper leagues and in DFS tournaments.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps guide you to victory in your leagues this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
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- Written by Tad Bukowski
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- Written by David Biggs
Some of these are hot takes, I admit it. But I think that the majority will pan out as being starts or sits just beyond the range of the fantasy production you would expect for those categories. You don't win the championship by being the most conservative team in the league, after all. Check out the drinkfive rankings here on the site as well for a more in-depth view at how I look at the relevant players this year. Any stats listed are according to my Half-PPR rankings as of Wednesday, September 22. Good luck and cheers!
RBs
Start Chase Edmonds (ranked RB20) - Edmonds is going up against a Jacksonville defensive unit in poor shape this week. He is in fact the 20th highest scoring RB in fantasy points so far this season (22.6 pts). His usage has been consistent in the receiving game with at least 4 receptions in each match so far, and he has notched at least 75 all-purpose yards in both weeks 1 and 2 as well. The Jags are currently allowing 25.1 points to opposing RBs and so it’s not tough at all for me to predict 81 yards and a TD for Edmonds this week - projecting a total of 16.1 in half-PPR. Nice game, Chase.
MORE STARTS: Jonathan Taylor, Kareem Hunt, Elijah Mitchell (if healthy)
Sit Ty’Son Williams (ranked RB24) - Williams is going up against the porous Lions defense that both Elijah Mitchell and Aaron Jones were able to pick apart over the first two weeks of the season. Sounds great on paper, but I have to be contrarian with this one. Both weeks he struggled in key situations (Week 1’s blown coverage to lead to the strip sack on Lamar Jackson, and Week 2’s goal-line fumble that was luckily recovered by teammate Devin Duvernay). With more time to learn the playbook, I have to imagine that the Ravens will continue to lean on Murray and Freeman and the snap count will shift accordingly. Projecting a disappointing 73 yards total with no TDs. 8.3 fantasy points.
MORE SITS: Devin Singletary, Jamaal Williams, J.D. McKissic
WRs
Start Ja’Marr Chase (ranked WR27) - Chase has flashed big play ability with good performances over weeks 1 and 2 for a total of 30.8 fantasy points which makes him the WR14 overall so far this season. Normally, going up against the Steelers defense would be a major problem for young receivers, but recent injuries to outstanding contributors like T.J. Watt and Joe Haden make it a little more palatable. We saw the Raiders make progress down the field through the air and I expect that the Bengals will also find some success there if key defensive players are not healthy enough to start this weekend. Projecting 67 yards and a TD on limited receptions for a total of 14.2 fantasy points.
MORE STARTS: Rondale Moore, Tim Patrick, Darnell Mooney
Sit DeVonta Smith (ranked WR 30) - Smith led all Eagles receivers in targets over the past two games, if that means anything. It’s certainly building some hype for the rookie receiver. He did have a great performance in week 1, putting up 16.1 fantasy points against Atlanta, but fell back to Earth in week 2 with only 16 yards on 2 receptions. Yikes. I continue to see Smith being chased as a WR3 or FLEX start against Dallas, but he is only the WR46 on the year in total fantasy points and a rookie to boot. And on the Eagles. Don’t do it. Projecting more yardage and receptions than last week but still a low output at 4.7 fantasy points.
MORE SITS: Deebo Samuel, Marvin Jones, Brandin Cooks
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- Written by David Biggs
Set 'em up and knock 'em down! We hope that you have gotten through ok to the other side in week 3, but regardless it is still early in the season so even if you're off to an 0-2 start there is still time to right the ship. Some players that I think will surprise and overperform other experts' projections this week are Sony Michel, Marquez Callaway, David Njoku, and Pat Freiermuth. Check out our top weekly waiver pickups and make smart decisions early in the season. Consider playing high-floor guys in most of your early week matchups since there is still a ton of variability in fantasy production right now. Best of luck!
Good luck, and feel free to reach out to me at
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- Written by Jim Hutchins
It's the end of another exciting week of football which means it's time to put your claims in for available free agents in your fantasy league to strengthen your team. I'll be going over who I think are the top five picks for you to target this week so don't miss out on them. Good luck!
Note: %owned is based on Yahoo! leagues at the time of publication.
5) Cordarrelle Patterson (ATL) - 15% owned – Mike Davis was expected to dominate touches in the Falcons backfield but instead there has been more of a split with Patterson. Some sites have Patterson with duel WR/RB eligibility giving some flexibility for line-ups as well.
4) Carolina (CAR) - 20% owned - The Panthers defense gets the benefit of playing against a first year quarterback in David Mills this Thursday. Look for some turnovers from the rookie on a short week of preparation.
3) Sterling Shepard (NYG) - 57% owned – Shepard has been operating as the clear WR1 for the Giants despite their offseason acquisition of Kenny Golladay. Look for him to continue to build upon his 16 of 19 receptions for 207 yards production he has through the first two games.
2) James White (NE) - 42% owned – He may not have the same appeal as when Tom Brady was in New England but White’s 12 receptions are currently leading all pass catchers on the team making him a great pick up especially for PPR formats.
1) Rondale Moore (ARZ) - 34% owned – Moore is off to a solid rookie season catching 11 of 13 for 182 yards and a touchdown. There is a lot of upside on a high scoring offense if he can continue to build upon his rapport with Kyler Murray.
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- Written by Jason Evans
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
6 Receptions
Sunday in Seattle, Derrick Henry had a career-high 6 receptions, his previous high-water mark was only 4 receptions. He now has 9 catches in two games this year – his career-high in a season are 19 catches in 2020. Perhaps, however, I am burying the lead, much like Henry buried the Seahawks defense in the second half of the game. Henry finished yesterday’s game with an absolutely gaudy (albeit overtime aided) stat line. 35 carries for 182 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns, 6 receptions on 6 targets for 55 receiving yards. This gave Henry a final fantasy total of 44.7 points, a single-game total that’s nearly 10 points higher than any other player in the NFL this season. Congrats on the win, everybody who has Derrick Henry on their team. Henry holds the lead in fantasy points among all non-QB players, and also leads the league in rushing yards, carries, rushing TDs, and touches. He’s picked right up on the pace he had last season and even has expanded on his receiving game, making it possible for him to be the #1 RB in all of fantasy football this year, even with a healthy Christian McCaffrey around.
2.01 Christian McCaffreys
Or would it be McCafferies? It’s not important. Just geeking out on Henry’s amazing 44.7-point performance, which just more than twice as many points as the second-best RB of the week, Christian McCaffrey. McCaffrey does lead the league in yards from scrimmage with 324 already (170 rushing, 154 receiving) – only one other RB, Kenyan Drake, has over 100 receiving yards through two games. Among other players who scored nearly half as many points as Derrick Henry were Tony Pollard, Cordarrelle Patterson, and J.D. McKissic – none of whom are rostered in our drinkfive.com league. Now, this is mostly me calling out our league, since both Pollard (75% owned) and McKissic (58% owned) should really be rostered. Cordarrelle Patterson was definitely a surprise to fantasy players this week, finishing with 21.4 fantasy points and scoring both on the ground and through the air, the first time he’s done that since his rookie season in 2013.
50.84 Fantasy Points
Through two weeks, the QB5 on the season is Daniel Jones, and he’s still only owned in 50% of Fleaflicker leagues. Jones is third in rushing yards among QBs, has 2 rushing scores, and perhaps most importantly, has just one fumble and zero interceptions on the season. Jones is taking clear steps forward in improving his game, at least as far as fantasy football goes. I suppose that fans of the actual New York Football Giants might have differing opinions. Elsewhere at the QB position, Derek Carr and Kirk Cousins both find themselves in the top 10 of fantasy points, outscoring guys who were drafted way ahead of them like Josh Allen, Dak Prescott, and Ryan Tannehill. As of the time I’m writing this, Aaron Rodgers hasn’t played in his Week 2 game yet, so it’s not really fair to pile on to his 3.32 point performance to open the season (though to be fair to me, that’s a really small target to try and pile on to).
4 Receiving Touchdowns
Rob Gronkowski is the early league leader in receiving touchdowns, nabbing two in each of his first two games. He’s also got 12 receptions through those two games, and he’s never finished a season above 5.6 receptions per game. It’s hard to say that this is a renaissance for Gronk, since nearly everyone expects his production to fall off at some point due to all the wear and tear he’s had through the years. I will, however, keep rolling him out at TE until he shows me that he’s going to slow down. Currently, he’s the TE2, but only behind Travis Kelce by 0.1 points, making them essentially both TE1’s on the year. They are way ahead of Darren Waller’s impressive 30.5 points on the year, who is in turn way ahead of the rest of the pack, which is in the low 20’s (pending T.J. Hockenson’s performance tonight).
12 Kickers with Double-digit Points
I avoided them last week, but you can’t dodge a kicker forever, so let’s see how they’re doing. This week was excellent for kickers, with a cool dozen players scoring 10 points or more, so great news, right? Surely, you started one of those kickers. Well, maybe not. In our drinkfive.com league, only 3 of those 12 kickers were rostered for last weeks’ games. 7 of those kickers were owned in 12% of Fleaflicker leagues or less, proving once again that this is probably the hardest position to predict on a week-to-week basis. Week 2’s leader, Graham Gano, is a name that has been around forever, yet he is on only 12% of teams, while going a perfect 5/5 on FGs and 2/2 on XPs for 23.2 total fantasy points. Remember folks, don’t just go for the guys who have big names, go for the guys who are on teams that cannot score touchdowns! Like Gano or the K3 on the week, Nick Folk of the Patriots. Of course, Folk missed an extra point, so his job is likely in jeopardy with a coach like Belichick.
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- Written by Troy Maples
Wow! What an opening week for the NFL and for contrarian sports bettors! The underdogs showed out with a 12-4 week 1 finish, and 9 of those dogs won outright! The total bets being placed was phenomenal and definitely a sign of the spreading movement of legalization throughout the country. Contrarian bettors will be able to take HUGE advantage of the growing interest in sports betting and week 1 was a great start! We went 3-0 with our drinkfive Week 1 bets, so let’s keep that momentum rolling into week 2.
Week 2 is known as “overreaction week”. We have to be careful not to fall into this trap ourselves. A couple of my picks below have one of my favorite signals to follow as a contrarian bettor; reverse line movement. This is when the line moves in the opposite direction of what “makes sense”. It’s a terrific signal that, despite heavy public betting numbers on a team, the pros are on the other side and the books have enough liability with the pro money that the line moves away from the majority bet team.
Philadelphia +3.5 vs San Francisco:
This might be my favorite bet of the week. The 49ers are traveling across the country again to face the new-look Eagles at home. The look-ahead line opened at 4 and after week 1’s results dropped to 3.5, but what I really like about this game is the reverse line movement we have seen midweek. This number has now dropped to 3 in spite of the Eagles only seeing a third of the bets. Another great signal is the fact that 73% of the money is coming in on the Eagles even with the small bet count. This means heavier pro money is moving the needle and that is the side I want to be on. Try to grab the hook and get the 3.5 if you can to protect against the most common key number in the NFL. Remember, the lines move late on game day as both the public starts looking at the games more during the weekend and the limits rise so the pros can come in with bigger bets.
Indianapolis +3.5 vs Los Angeles Rams:
To me, this is a classic overreaction line for week 2. The Colts didn’t look great in their debut against the Seahawks, meanwhile, the Rams were featured on Sunday Night Football and had all eyes on them in prime time for their win. Keeping this simple the Colts lost to a very good team and the Rams beat an unimpressive Bears team at home. Another week for the Colts to prepare, and without uncertainty about Carson Wentz, facing a west coast team traveling east; I am taking the home dog here. The line has been bouncing all week. You may be able to hold out for a 4 or even better as Sunday's game time approaches, but every time the number has bumped to 4 this week it was immediately hit and dropped back down to 3.5 signaling sharp money coming in.
Under 54.5 Tennessee @ Seattle:
The look-ahead total for this game was 49 and Monday the lines shot up to 54. That is a lot of action very quickly, however, since Monday the line has settled in a bit. I think 54.5 is the best number from an overreaction high total. Seattle was impressive against Indianapolis last week and they are headed home to play in front of their home crowd for the first time since the 2019 season. Tennessee looked awful, and while that could be an overreaction itself, I don’t think it is. I feel like the Titans are regressing and they face a very tough matchup in Seattle with the Seahawks and the 12th man. The line movement tells us the under is a heavily sharp play in a pros vs joes betting matchup. 38% of the bets are on the under, while a massive 89% of the money is coming on the under. I think this line was way too inflated, but the public sees a high-powered offense against a bad defense and thinks the over is a no-brainer. Tennessee is going to rely on the run to keep that high-powered offense on the sidelines, and their defense only needs to come up with a couple of key stops to keep this one under the total.
While the early week bet counts were lower than week 1 I have still seen some impressive bet counts coming in throughout the week. This high level of interest is good for the contrarians. More public money means stronger signals and heavier betting on favorites and overs. This is giving us A TON of value early on this season and I think that had a lot to do with the record-setting week 1 covering record for the underdogs. We still have to stay consistent and stick to the strategy. Take what the lines show us, even the “hold your nose” plays like Detroit last week. Speaking of Detroit, let's end on a good lesson gleaned from that game. Detroit looked sharp all week and as the weekend approached we saw the number rise (all the way to 9.5). Early week bettors didn’t cover, but if you grabbed them on the weekend you either pushed or got the back-door cover with their comeback. This shows the importance of closing line value (beating the closing number) and sometimes waiting for the weekend line movements when more public betting and higher limits come into the books.
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- Written by Matt Cochrane
Wow! What an opening NFL weekend! Start the week with Tom Brady ripping out Dak's heart and close it with a wild Monday night where the Raiders almost blew a game in the biggest way I've seen since the famous Herm Edwards play that led to the invention of kneeling. Between all of that, we had two Super Bowl favorites in the Bills and Packers getting handled. The Bills alone knocked 111 from the pool and with all the other losers brought the survivors down to 1210 from the starting 1604 entrants. But Alas, I got both of mine through.
This week my top pick goes to a team that couldn't win last week, but who can blame them when you're up against Mahomes. In this case, being close is enough for me to think the Cleveland Browns can handle the Houston Texans at home. They are the biggest favorites of the week at -12.5 and should make for a safe pick. I can't pretend like I actually watched any of the Jags/Texans game but I did watch the whole Chiefs/Browns game and what I saw was that Cleveland will be a playoff team again. The Texans are in rebuild mode and will be finishing at or near the bottom of the worst division in football.
For the second pick, I'm going with the other -12.5 favorite Tampa Bay Buccaneers. As good as Tom Brady looked in Week 1, this pick is all about Atlanta. I quickly remembered how bad they were last season after their performance against the Eagles and they won't be better this year. The Packers should be another popular pick this week, but I'm staying away until Rodgers proves he's not a mole trying to cost the team games.
My strategy early on in these pools is to keep it simple as long as you can and worry about making tough picks when the time comes. Saving teams always seems to bite you, just ask all the people that busted on the Jags in week 1 trying to be clever.
Cheers! Drink Five
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Entry #2 |
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Buccaneers |
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- Written by David Biggs
Not all that glitters is gold. We're all familiar with the adage, but often as fantasy football team managers it's all too easy to get caught up in the momentum of a player and/or his circumstances without looking forward into how things will progress throughout the season. For these specific examples below, fantasy points may well follow for a couple more weeks but all are headed to a place closer to a benchwarmer on your roster than a starter. Why not take the advantageous route of offering these overperforming players to other managers in your league and getting some more consistent, higher-floor players back in return? That's my plan. Either way, good luck out there!
- Sammy Watkins - Here we go again with Sammy. Drafted this year as WR 89, the ‘Week 1 Wonder’ put up 11.6 fantasy points as WR37. He led the team in targets (8) and yards (96), and looks very much to be the Ravens #1 WR going forward. This may be a hit or miss kind of situation based on how much of a shootout the Ravens are involved in from week-to-week, but this is a player that - when healthy and featured - will have fantasy value throughout the season as a flex start. That said, I think those situations will be few and far between so I’m not buying into Watkins this year.
- Melvin Gordon - Gordon finished as the RB6 in Week 1, with 19.3 points. But take away the 70-yard TD run that he had in the fourth quarter and that number drops to only 6.3 points. In fact, Gordon actually had less carries during the game than rookie RB Javonte Williams. Those team managers that didn’t pay attention to the specific stats of this game may be clamoring to start Gordon but I think we’ll see his usage wane as the season progresses.
- Ty’Son Williams - Williams rushed 9 times for 65 yards and 1 TD on Monday Night Football making him the RB9 in Week 1. He also caught 3 passes for 29 yards and a total of 16.9 points. I don’t want to take a single thing away from his performance because he looked great, showcasing good speed and breaking a few tackles - but this is not likely the usage that he’ll continue to see over the course of the season. Newly signed veteran RB Latavius Murray took the majority of the carries in the second half (in fact, Williams only had two), and Williams missed a blitz pickup in overtime that led directly to Lamar Jackson’s fumble and the Ravens’ subsequent loss. No doubt Williams is talented, but those kinds of mistakes on top of Murray’s already split usage and Le’Veon Bell likely headed to the active roster to assist in 3rd down pass protection situations will result in much less fantasy production going forward than many are expecting.
- Deebo Samuel - An impressive outing from Samuel, he finished as WR3 with 27.4 points. That’s 9/12 for 189 yards and 1 TD. Yeesh. Clearly Samuel is not a ‘flash in the pan’ player as he totaled more than 800 yards receiving in his rookie year with the 49ers, but there are a few things to note here: 1) Brandon Aiyuk (hamstring injury) will be eased into this offense and take some targets away from Samuel as the season progresses and 2) The Eagles defense that he will face in Week 2 profiles as much better than the Lions - Calvin Ridley only chalked up 51 yards on 5 catches. Samuel and Gronk (who I’ll get to next) are clearly the best of tonight’s fantasy fool’s gold segment, but I think it’s important to understand that they have likely played their best games of the season already and we should expect regression. I expect 5-6 catches for 50-80 yards this week, which aligns more closely with the WR2/3 numbers we should anticipate on a weekly basis from Samuel. Consider week 1 a lucky spin.
- Rob Gronkowski - TE1 with 25 points. Is Gronk back to his glory days? In a way, yes. Same relationship with Brady, same kinds of plays and mismatches we’ve seen in the past, etc. But we know that Gronkowski’s gears were already getting rusty and that injuries tend to crop up over the course of a football season that prevent the big guy from playing at 100%. I will admit that it looked like Gronk drank some water from the fountain of youth out there against the Cowboys secondary, recording 8 grabs for 90 yards and 2 TDs but - like plastic bags - that’s simply not sustainable. We will see a major drop-off from Gronk going forward, but we may not see it this week against the Falcons. Their less-than-stellar secondary gave up plenty of fantasy production to the tight end position last week. So trot Gronk out there as a TE1 once more, but that will change starting with the Rams in Week 3. Mark my words!