Fantasy Football / NFL
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- Written by Matt Cochrane
Week three was relatively safe for everyone in the pool, with all the big favorites taking care of business. About 15% of the league were resurrected by Saint Justin Tucker's NFL record 66 yard field goal as time expired, but who could root against that kick? The Chiefs loss against the Chargers knocked out 18 for the highest number of the week bringing the total survivors down to 1064. Already 199 people have moved on this week with that actually exciting Thursday night game, where the Bengals pulled out a comeback win with a game-ending field goal. That may have been the best spot all year to play Cincinnati and they almost punished you for it. After watching my first Jaguars game, I don't see a winless season in their future.
I decided to use my two picks on the Buffalo Bills and Tennessee Titans. The Bills are the biggest favorite of the week opening at -16.5 against the quarterbackless Houston Texans. Buffalo looks to be rolling now ever since their week one slip up against the Steelers. Houston has no chance against any of the better teams in the league until they upgrade their QB.
The Titans are my second choice for the week. There is no need for concern about them not having any wide receivers, they are playing the Jets. The Titans will get plenty of receptions on defense to make up for the absence of Brown and Jones. Zach Wilson must be ecstatic for Justin Fields' start for the Bears so he is no longer the biggest embarrassment at QB so far. Titans defense and a heavy dose of Derick Henry should be all it takes.
Good luck everyone! And Drink Five!
ENTRY #1 ENTRY #2
RAMS BUCCANEERS
BUCCANEERS BROWNS
BRONCOS CARDINALS
BILLS TITANS
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- Written by Troy Maples
Through 3 weeks we are 6-3 on the official drinkfive picks! Insert the “Its not much but its honest work” meme. We are turning a small profit and I am looking forward to building on it in week 4! Underdogs and unders have been extremely profitable through the first 3 weeks. Dogs are 30-18 ATS (62.5%) with away dogs seeing the best profitability at 19-10 ATS (65.52%). Unders have also been incredibly profitable with a 28-20 record to the under (58.3%). There are a couple of things I want to mention related to this incredible start; first, when betting underdogs, in particular short dogs, I advise putting a small portion of your bankroll on the money line. This is a great way to build extra bankroll and take advantage of plus money bets. Second, sports betting is not easy and trends are great for extra edges, but we have to be wary of regression. This is why sticking to a strategy is important. You’re going to ride some highs and lows, but trying to play both sides of the market is a recipe for disaster. I’m seeing some incredible value on dogs again this week so without further a due…
Seattle +3 at San Francisco:
This is a buy-low spot on Seattle as they are coming off of two losses in a row. Admittedly this line is a bit chalky with 72% of the bets and 77% of the money coming in on the Seahawks. I have this at +3.5 and my recommendation is to hold off and shop around for the hook if you can find it. That being said I am making it an official play +3. This is also a great spot to throw a bit of money on the money line currently at +130. First and foremost, this is a division game and I love taking division dogs. Division games provide an extra edge for underdogs because the teams are very familiar with one another, and GM’s build their teams to win divisions so they match up well regardless of record. I am betting on Russell Wilson in this one! He is 27-10 ATS (70%) as a road dog and 26-14-4 ATS (65%) off a loss. The extra edge is that he has never lost 3 games in a row in his entire career. I simply can’t pass up taking Wilson in a rare underdog spot.
Baltimore +1/ML at Denver:
Hopefully, you jumped on this one earlier in the week. I like Baltimore to win this game regardless, but the line is flipping and the Ravens will be the favorite before kickoff. This was an early week bet for me at Baltimore +1.5 and a little on the money line as well. I still like it here with Baltimore still showing as a slight dog. A small tidbit to mention when betting on this game. If the line flips and the spread is anything between a PK and -1.5 I would recommend looking at the money line instead of the spread. Even if that means paying a little more juice it protects you from losing the bet completely if Baltimore wins by 1. This is another chalky dog play with 74% of the bets and 80% of the money coming in on the Ravens. Ultimately, I think the Ravens were teased up when they opened as dogs, and are probably in a lot of money line parlays too. This explains the heavy action, but regardless I like other edges here outside of what the market is showing is the public play. Denver has been playing very well and Teddy Bridgewater has looked incredible, which is why now is the time to sell high on them. The Broncos look good, but then again look at the teams they have played; Giants, Jags, and Jets. The Ravens are a big step up in class compared to those teams. Harbaugh is another edge I like in this game. He is 58% as a road dog, including 4-1 with Lamar Jackson, but beyond that, he is significantly better than his counterpart Vic Fangio which could be the difference in what bookmakers are saying will be a coin flip game.
Minnesota +2 vs Cleveland:
I am back in my contrarian comfort zone with this pick. Minnesota is only getting 38% of the bets and 30% of the money this week when they play host to the Cleveland Browns. While Cleveland has the better record, they have not necessarily been the more impressive team. Sure, week 1 was a fight for the ages and for 3 quarters the Browns looks good, but ultimately, they came up short against Elite talent again. They followed up that disappointing loss with an uninspiring win against Houston and a drumming of the Chicago Bears; two severely bad teams that don’t earn them any merit from me. On the other hand, the Vikings are literally only a couple of plays away from starting 3-0. An OT loss to Cincinnati with a questionable fumble call and a missed field goal against Arizona in week 2. The fact that this game is in Minnesota makes all the difference. Mike Zimmer is 35-21-1 ATS (62.5%) at home and 9-4 ATS (69.2%) as a home dog. Kirk Cousins has actually been playing very well and Dalvin Cook is looking to be back from injury. I don’t have faith that the Cleveland defense is complete enough to cover all the ways the Vikings can attack them. The only way I see this going south for the Vikings is if Cleveland jumps out to a big early lead.
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- Written by Shawn Foss
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Three weeks of the NFL season are now in the books, and the fantasy landscape is starting to really take shape. It was a messy week 3 for most members of the rookie crop not named Najee Harris or Ja’Marr Chase, but that doesn’t mean we can’t learn from it. Week 3 may have been the worst week we’ve seen from a rookie QB class in all the time I’ve been writing this column. Davis Mills had the most efficient week of any of the rookie starting QBs as he completed 68% of his passes and threw a TD with no turnovers. The four 1st-round QBs who started combined to go 77-for-140 (55% complete) for 717 yards (5.1 yards per attempt), 3 touchdowns, and 9 turnovers. They also were collectively sacked 19 times. The true standouts in futility were Justin Fields (30% complete, 9 sacks taken) and Trevor Lawrence (4 turnovers). Things should get better for those guys going forward, but there is still a learning curve ahead. Week 3 also saw poor fantasy performances from Kyle Pitts, Rondale Moore, and Trey Sermon, but Javonte Williams managed to break through and score his first TD as a pro. With all of that said, I’m not here to live in the past. I’m here to talk about what to expect in week 4.
A couple of quick notes for the players listed below – All players listed under the same header at the same position are listed in the order that I would play them this week, and all points per game references and points allowed rankings are based on half-PPR scoring unless otherwise noted. Let’s dive into week 4…
Rookies to Start:
RB Najee Harris, PIT (Wk. 4: @GB): Najee did something in week 3 that has been accomplished by only 1 other running back in the last 3 decades. He was targeted an astonishing NINETEEN times, hauling in 14 of them for 102 receiving yards en route to an RB5 finish for the week. Only Alvin Kamara has been targeted that many times in a game since targets have been tracked (since 1992). There were a couple factors that contributed to the huge total. Diontae Johnson, who usually vacuums up a large number of short targets, was sidelined, and JuJu Smith-Schuster left with injury during the game. They also were behind by multiple scores for most of the game and had to keep throwing. With Diontae practicing in a limited capacity Wednesday, he seems on track to play this week. That should make it tough for Harris to approach that number again, but it’s good to see how much they trust him in the passing game. Najee’s rushing efficiency still leaves something to be desired behind this offensive line, but he’s played 95% of the offensive snaps or more in each game. This week he gets to face the Packers, who rank 25th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat and have allowed 6 running back receptions per game. Another top-5 finish is far from assured, but you can feel comfortable firing up Harris as an RB1 in all formats.
WR Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Wk. 4: vs. Jax.): With his two touchdown grabs last weekend, Ja’Marr Chase became the first 21-year-old rookie to ever catch for 4 touchdowns in his first 3 games (breaking Randy Moss’s previous record of 3 scores). Chase has now caught at least 1 touchdown in 15 of the last 18 games the pair has played together. His connection with Joe Burrow has clearly picked up right where it left off when they were teammates at LSU. There are some warning signs to beware of with Chase, though. The Bengals are playing at the 2nd-slowest pace in the league in neutral game scripts (3rd-slowest pace overall), and they’re running the ball a LOT. Cincy has gone to the air on just 34.4% of their offensive plays when they’re leading on the scoreboard. Those factors have led to the Bengals averaging just 25 pass attempts per game through the first 3 weeks. They figure to be leading a lot again Thursday as a touchdown favorite against the hapless Jaguars. Chase has shown through the first 3 weeks that he doesn’t need a ton of volume to post a big day. He’s averaging nearly 14 yards per target and a touchdown every 4 targets so far. The Jaguars, who rank 30th in pass defense DVOA, are unlikely to be the team to curtail that efficiency from Chase. With Tee Higgins out again, even a low passing volume game from Burrow should lead to 6 or 7 targets for Ja’Marr, and that should be plenty to be in the WR2/3 range for this week in most formats.
WR DeVonta Smith, PHI (Wk. 4: vs. KC): Smith has been largely a letdown if you’ve started him the last couple weeks, but I like this as a spot for him to get right. Through the first 3 weeks, he’s seen 22.3% of the targets and 40.6% of the intended air yards in this passing game. The Chiefs rank dead last in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 8th-most fantasy points per game to receivers. The targets are going to continue to come DeVonta’s way, and Philly should be forced to throw plenty as a touchdown underdog. Obviously, there is risk here with Smith, but I really like him to have a big day and finish as a WR2 against Kansas City.
TE Kyle Pitts, ATL (Wk. 4: vs. Was.): You can’t overreact to one down week for Pitts. His usage levels are still elite. He saw his highest route participation (88%) and snap rate (84%) of the season in week 3. If those things continue, the targets are going to follow. This week he faces a Washington defense that ranks 28th in pass defense DVOA, and has allowed the 16th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends while facing a murderer’s row of Jared Cook, Kaden Smith, Kyle Rudolph, and Dawson Knox in the first 3 weeks. If those guys managed to make this look like a middling tight end defense, you shouldn’t be scared to fire up Pitts again. He has a great chance at this being a breakout game, and he could be a bargain in DFS with a price tag of just $5,000 on DraftKings.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Justin Fields, CHI (Wk. 4: vs. Det.): Obviously if you started Fields last week, this isn’t a well you want to dip back into, but it should be a more productive week for Fields this time out if Dalton isn’t cleared to play. Bill Lazor is going to take over the play-calling duties from Matt Nagy this week. Last season, that happened 9 games into the season. In the 9 games Nagy called, the Bears averaged 19.8 points and 302 yards per game. In the 7 that Lazor called, they averaged 27.7 and 349 yards. Fields also gets to face a very bad Detroit defense that ranks 31st in pass defense DVOA and has given up the 10th-most QB points per game. The switch to Lazor isn’t going to fix everything that ails the Bears’ offense overnight, but it’s a step in the right direction. If you can stomach starting Justin Fields again this week after what he did last Sunday, he has a great chance at finishing as a top-15 QB against the Lions.
RB Elijah Mitchell, SF (Wk. 4: vs. Sea.): Mitchell is still working through a shoulder injury that kept him out in week 3, and his status is still up in the air for this one. If he’s able to play, the matchup is a juicy one. The 49ers face a Seahawks defense that has been struggling at all levels. Seattle has allowed over 135 rushing yards, over 80 receiving yards, and a whopping 9 receptions to running backs per game. They’ve allowed nearly 4 more points per game to the position than the team allowing the 2nd-most RB points (Miami). To be fair to the Seahawks, Derrick Henry did a big chunk of the damage that’s been done against them, but they’ve struggled to slow down Nyheim Hines and Alexander Mattison as well. We know the 49ers want to run the ball. If Mitchell starts, don’t look for him to hit those stats the Seahawks are allowing on his own, but he’s got obvious top-15 upside in a great matchup.
RB Chuba Hubbard, CAR (Wk. 4: @Dal.): Hubbard has been THE guy to target on the waiver wire this week after Christian McCaffrey suffered a hamstring strain that will likely keep him out for a couple games. There’s a chance Chuba shares this backfield with Royce Freeman, but if his usage after McCaffrey went out last week is any indication, Chuba is the player you want here. Hubbard played 73% of the offensive snaps after CMC got hurt and ran a route on 72% of the teams dropbacks. The Cowboys’ run defense has been better this season, ranking 12th in run defense DVOA and allowing the 7th-fewest RB points per game, but this is an offense that funnels targets to the running back position. We saw it last season when Mike Davis stepped into a 70-target season in place of McCaffrey last year, and Chuba’s 5 targets in week 3 are evidence that will continue now. If Chuba gets 5+ targets again this week, that receiving production should insulate him against a lackluster rushing output. He should be a high-end RB3 with RB2 upside in Dallas.
RB Javonte Williams, DEN (Wk. 4: vs. Bal.): Javonte found the end zone for the first time in his young career last weekend, but also lost his first fumble. We saw some flashes of his talent, but ultimately until he pulls away from Melvin Gordon, you’ll have to look for favorable matchups to fire him up rather than plugging him in every week. This week isn’t a great one to fire him up. The Ravens have been somewhat vulnerable to running backs, allowing the 7th-most RB points per game, but a big chunk of that production has been due to rushing touchdowns, which can be a little fluky, and receiving output. Baltimore has given up 5 rushing scores, with 4 of them coming from 2 yards out or closer. The Broncos may not get any chances in that close. Baltimore has also given up 7 receptions and 65 receiving yards per game to opposing backs. Javonte and Gordon have combined for fewer than 5 targets per game so far. The Ravens rank 10th in run defense DVOA on the year, so it won’t be so easy for Javonte to produce if he doesn’t find the end zone or catch a handful of passes. I’d view him as more of a dicey flex this week.
WR Jaylen Waddle, MIA (Wk. 4: vs. Ind.): I warned last week that Waddle was getting shorter targets from Jacoby Brissett, and that it would likely take a lot of them for him to post a solid week 3 performance against the Raiders. He got a lot of them. It took 13 targets for Waddle to finish as the PPR WR19 with a 12-58-0 line. In the two games where it has been mostly Brissett at QB, Waddle has averaged fewer than 3 air yards per target. It’s a great sign that he’s been so heavily targeted by Brissett, and that could continue in week 4, but it’s a similar outlook for the rookie. He’s going to need significant volume to return value unless he manages to find the end zone. The Colts have struggled to defense WRs, allowing the 5th-most points per game to the position, and slot corner Kenny Moore has just a coverage grade of just 42.5 from PFF so far after being one of the better slot corners in the league a year ago. Waddle has WR3 upside in PPR formats this week.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX (Wk. 4: @Cin.): Lawrence has shown some good through the first 3 weeks of the season, and a lot of bad. The top pick in the 2021 NFL Draft has turned the ball over 9 times in the first 3 games and has only managed to offset those mistakes with positive production once. After finishing as the QB12 in week 1, he’s been outside the top-25 in each of the last two weeks. This week he gets to face a Cincinnati defense that is allowing the 10th-fewest QB points per game and ranks 8th in pass defense DVOA. It’s a good sign that he’s been using his legs more in recent weeks, but this isn’t a spot to roll him out unless you’re desperate in a 2-QB league. The Bengals’ defense is a good week 4 streaming option.
QB Zach Wilson, NYJ (Wk. 4: vs. Ten.): On paper, it looks like Wilson gets a softer matchup than he’s faced the last two weeks, but those ‘on paper’ numbers can be deceiving. The Titans have allowed the 12th-most QB points per game and rank 22nd in pass defense DVOA, but they were shredded by two of the game’s best quarterbacks in the first two weeks (Kyler Murray & Russell Wilson). They were much better defensively in week 3 as they held Carson Wentz to fewer than 8 fantasy points. I’ve painstakingly documented the Jets’ inability to protect Wilson in the pocket in past Rookie Reports, and Tennessee has the 3rd-highest pressure rate in the league. Taking heat from the defense is going to be a way of life for Wilson at least until Mekhi Becton returns. Wilson is also likely to be missing #2 receiver Elijah Moore this week. He should be at least a little better than he was the past two weeks, but Wilson isn’t a good option even in two QB leagues right now.
QB Davis Mills, HOU (Wk. 4: @Buf.): Mills held up pretty well against a tough Panthers’ defense on Thursday night, throwing for 168 yards and a touchdown without turning the ball over, but he faces just as stiff a test this week against Buffalo. The Bills have allowed the 5th-fewest QB points per game and rank 2nd in pass defense DVOA through 3 weeks. It feels sort of unfair to have a rookie make his first two starts against the defenses that rank 1st (Carolina) and 2nd (Buffalo) in pass defense DVOA, but Mills will have to make do. Mills’ performance last week landed him a QB27 finish, and you’d be hard-pressed to expect much more from him this week. He shouldn’t be near your lineups.
QB Trey Lance, SF (Wk. 4: vs. Sea.): It’s the same story again with Lance this week. If he isn’t starting, the best you could hope for is a couple red zone scores in a game playing in a sub package. He’s got a zero-point floor and a 12-point ceiling unless he’s thrust into more action than we’ve seen. That’s not enough to sniff the QB2 range, even against a shreddable defense like Seattle’s.
RB Larry Rountree, LAC (Wk. 4: vs. LV): Through the first 3 weeks Rountree is averaging about 14 snaps and 5 touches per game, and the Raiders rank 9th in run defense DVOA so far. There’s no reason to consider the rookie in any upcoming weeks unless his role grows, or something happens to Austin Ekeler.
RB Demetric Felton, CLE (Wk. 4: @Min.): I mentioned Felton last week as a guy to monitor in case he managed to steal some slot work from Rashard Higgins with Jarvis Landry out. I just wanted to update that and let you know that he didn’t. Felton played just 11 snaps to 40 for Higgins. He did out-target Higgins 3 to 2, but those targets turned into just 2 catches and 13 yards. There isn’t enough of a role for Felton to be worth rostering right now.
RB Chris Evans, CIN (Wk. 4: vs. Jax.): Evans is slowly getting more involved in the Bengals’ offense in passing situations spelling Joe Mixon, but this is a low-volume offense right now. Evans played just 5 snaps in week 3, but that was good enough for an 11% snap share, and with 2 catches for 26 yards he managed to outscore some committee backs who are rostered in most 12-team leagues (Devin Singletary, Ty Johnson, Latavius Murray, Damien Harris, Ty’Son Williams). Evans should remain on the wire for now, but his usage warrants continued monitoring.
RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE (Wk. 4: vs. TB): Stevenson has been a healthy scratch in each of the last two games after losing a fumble in week 1, and although you’d have to expect him to suit up this week with James White sidelined for the year, I still wouldn’t expect a big role. Damien Harris will still be the lead rushing back, and it will likely be Brandon Bolden or JJ Taylor picking up the slack that White left behind. Rhamondre might need an injury to Harris to see a real spike in value. Even if he were to get some carries this week, Tampa has allowed the 7th-fewest running back rushing yards and 9th-fewest running back fantasy points thus far. It would be tough sledding to produce against this vaunted front.
WR Rondale Moore, ARI (Wk. 4: @LAR): Moore demonstrated last week just how volatile he is for fantasy given his current usage. He’s playing as the Arizona WR4, and that means there will be some floor weeks. Week 3 was one of them. DeAndre Hopkins was battling a rib injury and worked mostly as a decoy, but the Cardinals used more Maxx Williams instead of letting the Hopkins injury open more playing time for Rondale. This week’s matchup is an interesting one. The Rams have one of the best cover corners in the NFL in Jalen Ramsey but have deployed him in the slot 55% of the time despite the Bucs being the only team they’ve faced with a formidable slot receiver. If that trend continues, look for Nuk Hopkins to be heavily targeted in this one, and Rondale to be competing with AJ Green and Christian Kirk for any leftover targets. Hopkins has just a 17% target share so far, but I expect this to be the week where that number goes back up. I’d be hesitant to start Moore as anything more than a boom-or-bust WR4.
WR Terrace Marshall, CAR (Wk. 4: @Dal.): With Christian McCaffrey sidelined this week, there may be a little more passing volume that usually goes to CMC that could be re-distributed to the WRs, but if Marshall doesn’t start to see some targets further downfield, it’s hard to see him being very useful in your fantasy lineup. Marshall has an aDOT of just 6 yards and is playing fewer snaps and running fewer routes than teammate Robby Anderson despite being targeted more often. I’d expect the target pendulum to swing back toward Robby some weeks, and it’ll be hard to rely on Marshall as more than a WR4 option in deeper leagues.
WR Dyami Brown, WAS (Wk. 4: @Atl.): Brown has been a big disappointment so far this season, posting negative scrimmage yards in two of Washington’s first 3 games. He was targeted just twice last week in a game where Washington threw only 24 times despite losing by more than 20 points. This team does not want to let Taylor Heinicke throw the ball unless they must, and he hasn’t been willing to push the ball downfield where Dyami thrives. Heinicke averages just 7.3 intended air yards per attempt. I would’ve had a little bit of hope for Dyami this week if it looked like AJ Terrell was going to be out again, but he’s practicing in full as of Wednesday (though still in the concussion protocol). The two starting corners with him out (TJ Green and Fabian Moreau) have each allowed a passer rating above 130 on throws into the coverage, and the Falcons have allowed 10 completions of 20+ yards in the first 3 weeks. If Terrell is back, that’s who Brown should square off with most often, and Terrell has allowed just 3.3 yards per target and a 43.8 passer rating into his coverage. I’d have some interest in Dyami as a cheap dart throw in DFS tournaments if Terrell doesn’t clear the protocol, but otherwise this is a player I’d be avoiding this week.
WR Kadarius Toney, NYG (Wk. 4: @NO): Toney may see a spike in opportunity this week with both Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton appearing to be on the wrong side of questionable, but it’s a trap. He was on the field for 66% of the offensive snaps in week 3, and managed just 3 targets, 2 catches, and 16 yards. He is the only WR or TE in the league with a negative average target depth so far this season. Those aren’t the kind of targets that are going to return fantasy value even if he sees a few extra this week. The Saints rank 6th in pass defense DVOA and slot corner Chauncey Gardner-Johnson is allowing just 5 yards per target on throws into his coverage.
WR Dee Eskridge, SEA (Wk. 4: @SF): Eskridge is likely to get cleared from the concussion protocol and return this week, but there really aren’t any formats where you can feel comfortable firing him up in fantasy. He ran behind Freddy Swain on the depth chart in week 1, and the Seahawks’ top WRs should be able to have their way against a depleted 49ers secondary that likely will be without Josh Norman this week. If you’re playing the showdown slate for this game, Eskridge does have some appeal with just a $200 price tag on DraftKings. The team did make an effort to get the ball in his hands in week 1, he’s got the wheels to be a home run threat, and Gerald Everett may miss this game and open up some opportunity for the other ancillary players in the offense. The 49ers rank a middling 16th in pass defense DVOA, but have been losing DBs each week to injury.
WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET (Wk. 4: @Chi.): St. Brown was already seeing very limited production in the first two weeks while he was playing about 60% of the snaps. That snap share dropped to just over 40% in week 3, and his production dropped to 1 catch for 2 yards on 1 target. He has a chance to see a handful of targets when the Lions play from behind, but he isn’t going to be as involved in closer games, and the Lions are just a 3-point underdog this week on the road in Chicago. Kalif Raymond and Quintez Cephus both appear to be ahead of him in the WR pecking order.
WR Elijah Moore, NYJ (Wk. 4: vs. Ten.): In case you weren’t aware of it, Moore suffered a concussion against the Broncos last weekend and looks likely to miss this game. There is a chance that he has some sneaky upside if he’s able to get cleared. The Titans allow the 3rd-most WR points per game so far and Moore was targeted 6 times in the first 3 quarters last week before getting hurt. With that said, this Jets’ passing game isn’t one I want to put any faith in when it comes to fantasy outside of maybe Corey Davis.
TE Pat Freiermuth, PIT (Wk. 4: @GB): Freiermuth made good on my claim that he had sneaky upside last week by turning 5 targets into 3 catches for 22 yards and a touchdown, good for a TE12 finish. The downside is that he played his lowest snap share of the season, and it looks like target hog Diontae Johnson has a good chance of returning to the lineup this week. Green Bay looks like a soft matchup for tight ends, allowing the 3rd-most TE points per game so far, but they’ve already faced two of the game’s bests at the position in TJ Hockenson and George Kittle. They did also allow 2 scores to Juwan Johnson in the opener, so there is hope for Freiermuth, but I wouldn’t bank on a repeat performance if Diontae returns and the rookie continues to play behind Eric Ebron this week. Diontae and Najee Harris will see most of the shorter targets that could go Freiermuth’s way.
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
QB Mac Jones, NE (Wk. 4: vs. TB): The Saints made Jones look bad last week, but he can’t dwell on that performance with Tom Brady and the Bucs coming to town on Sunday night. The Bucs are favored by 6.5 points in this one, and they’ve got one of the stoutest defensive fronts in the NFL. I don’t expect Damien Harris to have much success on the ground, and that means Jones may have to throw a bit more than usual. The Bucs have already allowed 300+ passing yards and multiple scores in each of their first 3 games this season. I don’t think Jones is going to throw for 300, but I like his chances of padding his stats in garbage time and posting his best fantasy game of the season. He has some sneaky upside for 2-QB formats this week.
RB Trey Sermon, SF (Wk. 4: vs. Sea.): If Elijah Mitchell ends up being active for this week, disregard Sermon being listed here and feel free to ignore him this week. If Mitchell is out, however, don’t let last week’s usage and performance scare you off Sermon. Yes, it’s true that Sermon was out-snapped and out-produced by fullback Kyle Juszczyk on Sunday night. It’s also true that Juszczyk was healthy throughout the week of practice while the gameplan was installed for the week, and Sermon was in the concussion protocol. I’d expect Sermon to be much more involved in this game than he was last week if Mitchell can’t go. You can see what kind of matchup this is in the bit I wrote about Mitchell above. If the starting role is Sermon’s, he has RB2 upside for the week.
RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI (Wk. 4: vs. KC): As we saw last week, Gainwell is going to have a role in the Eagles’ hurry-up offense, which we will likely see more of in the 2nd half this week. The Chiefs are more than a touchdown favorite but have struggled across the board defensively in the first 3 weeks. They’ve allowed the 3rd-most RB points per game so far and rank dead last in run defense DVOA. I think Miles Sanders has a great chance at a strong game as well, but Gainwell has some upside in deep leagues in this matchup.
RB Michael Carter, NYJ (Wk. 4: vs. Ten.): The best way the Jets are going to be able to keep pressure off Zach Wilson in this game is going to be to run the ball effectively. Carter handled 75% of the Jets’ running back rush attempts last week, and I’d look for them to make more of an effort to establish the run this week against a defense that ranks 29th in run defense DVOA thus far. Carter also has receiving skills that should pad his numbers a bit, but he has a shot at posting a top-30 week if the Jets can keep from being blown out early.
WR Rashod Bateman, BAL (Wk. 4: @Den.): Bateman was activated off injured reserve this week, but he doesn’t get a soft landing in his debut. If Bateman manages to suit up this weekend, he’ll face off with a Denver defense that ranks 5th in pass defense DVOA and has allowed the 10th-fewest WR points per game. I mention him as a player to stash this week if he hasn’t already been snatched up by someone else in your league. The Ravens have been throwing the ball at a higher rate than they have in the last couple seasons, and that could continue thanks to their makeshift backfield. Marquise Brown has been getting open effectively this year, but a few bad drops last week nearly cost the team the game. There is an opening for Bateman to work his way into the WR1 role in this offense before the season’s end. You can’t start him this week but make room for Bateman on your bench if he’s available.
TE Tommy Tremble, CAR (Wk. 4: @Dal.): The Panthers traded away Dan Arnold this week, opening the door for Tremble to take on a more significant role in the offense. Ian Thomas has been the Panther TE that’s been on the field the most, but it’s Arnold who has seen two-thirds of the team TE targets come his way. That’s amounted to just 10 targets in 3 games, but Tremble should step into that role and have some TD dart throw appeal in DFS tournaments. He’s worth a stash in deeper TE-premium formats.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps guide you to victory in your leagues this weekend. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter (@Shawn_Foss) if you have any questions or want to yell at me about anything written above. Make sure to keep a close eye on the injury report throughout the week and do a final pre-game check to make sure you don’t start any inactive players. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
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- Written by Tad Bukowski
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- Written by Jason Evans
It's hard to believe that we're approaching the end of the first month of the NFL season already. We finally have enough games completed to start to pick up on player trends around the league. For now, I'm focused on Quarterbacks and Running Backs, but we will go over all the positions on tonight's podcast. Trending players will have a three-week fantasy performance that is either going up or going down, and we'll examine why that's the case and what we expect out of that player going forward.
Quarterbacks
Sam Darnold (Week 1: 19.06, Week 2: 20.50, Week 3: 25.26) - Darnold has the Panthers rolling with a 3-0 start. He’s only thrown 1 INT so far, and found the end zone three times on the ground, which is always something that you like to see from your fantasy QB. He’s also throwing the ball a decent amount, averaging just over 35 attempts per game with 24 completions per game. Darnold has not played the toughest competition so far, but has plenty of easy matchups coming up with games against PHI, NYG, and ATL all coming up well before his bye week. If you’re streaming QBs, you should love the floor that the QB12 on the season can give you. If you’re in a super flex league, then Darnold is easily an every week starter. Carolina’s strong rushing attack has helped him tremendously. His advanced passing stats are far better this year than they have been in his career.
Justin Herbert (Week 1: 14.38, Week 2: 16.72, Week 3: 30.84) - Herbert had a very slow start to the season after finishing last year as the ROY. He seemed unable to get the Chargers offense going in the first two weeks, scoring only 37 points on offense total. Last week he redeemed himself with 4 touchdowns through the air, one of which was on a game winning 4th quarter drive in their victory over the Chiefs. Herbert is owned in 90% of Fleaflicker leagues, meaning he’s not going to be on the streaming radar. If you drafted him, the urge to push the panic button should be subsiding. Herbert currently sits as the QB13 through three games, but you can safely expect him to finish well inside the top 10 by the end of the season with more performances like he turned in against the Chiefs.
Jared Goff (Week 1: 29.92, Week 2: 19.44, Week 3: 9.08) - Goff has displayed a classic downward trend for the first three weeks of the season. He started off very hot statistically in his first game, getting lots of garbage time points, finishing as the QB3 in Week 1 and providing some hope for Lions fans. But as all good Lions fans know, their hopes were dashed very quickly as the Lions lost the next two games as well. Goff has trended down in completions, attempts, and yardage in each subsequent game, even with plenty of garbage time opportunities in Week 2. While he hasn’t played particularly badly, it’s clear that there just isn’t much talent around him to support big games outside of some fluky garbage time stuff. Goff remains on the streaming radar, but only in great matchups. His floor is probably too low to rely on him and you certainly cannot rely on garbage time points.
Running Backs
Najee Harris (Week 1: 5.40, Week 2: 16.60, Week 3: 21.20) - This one’s for Dave. OK, not really, but I think he likes it when we talk about Steelers players. So, Harris is a rookie, so a slow start was probably to be expected. What I did not expect to see what a stat line like he had last week when he had 14 carries and 19 targets (14 receptions). Harris is lined up to be a PPR monster with action like that. He ramped up from 1 to 5 to 14 receptions, so while you can’t expect numbers like 14 receptions every week, you can assume that he is going to have a relatively high receiving floor. Harris is being used on every down, and with lots of injuries to the receiving corps, it looks like the offense will run through him. There are very few every-down backs in the NFL, and Harris was taken in fantasy drafts with the potential he could be one of those in mind. It looks like everything is going as planned for the Steelers rookie.
David Montgomery (Week 1: 18.30, Week 2: 9.40, Week 3: 6.50) - Montgomery started out the season strong, gaining 108 yards on just 16 carries against the Rams defense, but has really fallen off a cliff along with the rest of the Bears offense since then. On the season, Montgomery is now averaging just 2.0 receptions per game, down from 3.6 last season. His rushing attempts and yards per game are also down from last year. What worries me most is that the Bears appear to have an anemic offense at best and might struggle to move the ball early in games, thus turning them one-dimensional late in games.Until the Bears figure out what they want to do at QB, whether it’s running out a game manager, or developing Justin Fields, Montgomery will be a touchdown dependent RB2/3 with a relatively low floor for a guy that is going to still see a high percentage of snaps.
Ezekiel Elliott (Week 1: 4.90, Week 2: 16.70, Week 3: 25.10) - Zeke has trended up in many stat categories, so he’s the perfect example for this segment. His carries have gone 11, 16, 17. His yardage is 33, 71, 95 and his TDs have gone 0, 1, 2. Zeke was obviously a first round pick and is being started regardless of his slow start, but it’s nice to see that he’s ramped his production up nicely and while Tony Pollard is going to get his share of touches, Zeke is still the primary back and will be in line for 15-20 touches on average every game. The only thing that worries me about Zeke is that the Cowboys have a tendency to go pass-heavy in some games, as evidenced in week 1, thus leaving Zeke with a very low floor for a premier RB. If he was more involved in the passing offense, I would be fine with any game script that the Cowboys are presented with. Unfortunately so far this year, he has 2.3 receptions per game, down from 3.5 just a year ago, and way down from his career high of 5.1 in 2018 when he led the league in touches. 51 touches through 3 games is not what you drafted Zeke for, so you’re going to have to hope he does a lot with the touches he does get.
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- Written by Troy Maples
Entering into week 4 and I want to change things up a bit. Moving forward, I am going to do a quick early week preview for some of the games I am liking early that week. Thursday night I will put my official drinkfive.com picks out. The goal is to dive a bit deeper each week into the strategies and trends I use to make my bets. I will also give plays or leans I have on each of these games outside of the official picks later in the week.
Last week we went 2-1 bringing our season record to a profitable 6-3 so far. Contrarian bettors have been on fire to start the season! Through the first 3 weeks, dogs are 30-18 ATS (62.5%) with away dogs seeing the best profitability at 19-10 ATS (65.52%). Unders have also been incredibly profitable with a 28-20 record to the under (58.3%). It’s a great start to the year, but if blindly following dogs and unders was all it took then we’d all be rich. I expect some regression at some point as the books get sharper with their lines and adjust. In the meantime, we stick to our contrarian roots to take advantage of extra value, but we also check off trends, systems, line movement, and any other edge we can find to make the best bet!
Note: The spread number will always reflect based on the home team and does not represent my pick or play.
Jacksonville at Cincinnati -7.5 O/U 46:
The 2-1 Bengals host the 0-3 Jaguars in the week 4 Thursday Night matchup. This line opened at 7.5 and has pretty much stayed put since. The Bengals are getting 75% of the bets and 77% of the money and despite that lopsided betting we have yet to see major line movement. The lack of line movement is a classic line freeze, especially with the lopsidedness in betting, however this is a game I am not getting involved in from a spread perspective. The pros are all over Jacksonville and they have to be because 7.5 is a big number for any team in the NFL so it’s purely the value play.
I do have this game in 4 separate teasers where I have Cincinnati teased down to -1.5. I also have a 1 unit bet on the under in this game as well. I got this at 46.5. The line opened at 47 and was bet down to 46.5 immediately, since then it has bounced around between 46.5 and 45.5. Bets and money are all favoring the over, but we see a dip in the line signaling reverse line movement. I am usually a fan of Thursday Night unders anyway because teams have less time to prepare, less time to heal up, and in general are off their normal routine.
Detroit at Chicago -3 O/U 42.5:
The early line opened Detroit +6 before being bet down to +3.5 by Sunday night. I am kicking myself for not jumping on this one early! Detroit is taking the bets (78%) and the money (94%) early in the week which is what has led to the continued drop in the line. I even see a couple of 2.5’s on the board as of writing this. This is a divisional game and with that comes a built-in familiarity between the teams. The first goal for every NFL team is to win their division, so regardless of personnel or coaching changes these teams are built to compete with the teams in the division. This is usually something I feel I can take advantage of with divisional game underdogs. The bottom line in this one comes down to the very simple fact that Detroit is better coached. The Bears are at home, and they are coming off of an embarrassing loss, and we don’t know who the QB will be yet so I am laying off until later in the week.
I lean Detroit on this one at anything +3 or better. While they are 0-3 this season they have shown more than I think most of us expected to see this season. I think Matt Nagy has lost the locker room, while Detroit continues to fight hard in some tough early season games. This is a game I can see Detroit winning outright so I am also going to track the ML odds and sprinkle a little on it when I feel like I am getting my best value.
Cleveland at Minnesota +2 O/U 52:
This game is similar to the Carolina Dallas game in terms of my excitement level to bet it this week. This line opened with Cleveland favored at -1 and has since been bet up to 2, and even some 2.5’s. Cleveland has 70% of the bets and 90% of the money. To me this is purely a week 3 overreaction to Cleveland handling a very bad Chicago team and having the better record. Minnesota’s losses are to the Cardinals and the Bengals, both teams have winning records early in this season, and I do not think the Vikings are getting credit yet for how good those teams may be this season. The value here is too good to pass up; this game should be closer to a pick’em. If you want to feel better about this bet, throw Minnesota into a teaser bet and stretch that number across TWO key numbers in 3 and 7!
As I was writing this I grabbed Minnesota +2.5 because I don’t see any chance that the books move to this to 3 at any point this week. I also have Minnesota in a couple of teaser plays.
Kansas City at Philadelphia +7 O/U 54.5:
This one stinks, but this is a great example of how overreaction can create inflated value. The line on this game opened at 6.5 Sunday afternoon and bet down to 5.5 by Sunday night after the Chiefs lost, then hovered around 6 for most of Monday before jumping to 7 and 7.5 after the Eagles poor performance on Monday Night Football. The betting is predictably lopsided with KC grabbing 87% of the tickets and 98% of the money. I have a feeling a big part of the money coming in is in the form of teasers on KC. I have also teased the Chiefs down to 1.5-point favorites. I just don’t see a world where Mahomes loses 3 games in a row, not yet anyway. That being said, the Chiefs inability to cover the spread, slow start, and a big number on this game has me leaning Eagles early in the week. It’s a disgusting play, I know.
Right now, this is only a lean to the Eagles and I would need to get it at 7.5 at least. I do have the Chiefs -1.5 in a couple of teasers already locked in. I have no love or opinion for the total in this one.
Carolina at Dallas -4.5 O/U 50.5:
Both the Panthers and the Cowboys remain undefeated ATS through the first 3 weeks of the season. Only one of them, barring a push, will leave week 4 remaining undefeated. This has been a crazy line to track and follow early in the week after opening early Sunday at 4 and jumping to 5.5 by Sunday night. The line has continued to bounce between 4 and 5 since. Bets are split 50/50, but the money is favoring Dallas with 67%. Typically, early week money is something that signals sharp action, which would be in favor of Dallas at this point. I am not making a play on this game yet, but I am heavily leaning Carolina in this game. Dallas is coming off a huge win on Monday Night Football against a division rival and is prime for a let down spot. Carolina has had extra rest and prep time, playing in last weeks Thursday night game, and have the top ranked defense in DVOA.
This number has been bouncing and if it gets back to 5 I may jump on it regardless of the day of the week. Dallas always draws heavy public action, plus they are coming off of the big prime time win where everyone saw them play. Right now, this is Carolina or no play for me. I also like the under in this game. It has been bet up from 48.5 to 50.5 and the bets and money are on the over, however I think this is inflated and I am looking to catch the high number before it dips back down again. No plays made yet, but this is a great betting game for week 4!
Seattle at San Francisco -3 O/U 52.5:
Both the Seahawks and the 49ers are coming off of a loss to NFC North teams and now face a division rival. You will come to know this about me, but I key into division matchup games immediately and I love division dogs! In this case especially we have a short division dog with a spread of 3 or less. This line opened at 3.5 and fell through the 3 to 2.5 Monday morning before settling at 3 (-115). Seattle is 1-2 while the 49ers are 2-1, which makes Seattle the more desperate team in this matchup. Russell Wilson is covering 65% of the time as a road dog in his last 33 games. Meanwhile, Shanahan is awful as a favorite going 8-19-1 (30%) in his last 28. If trends aren’t your thing, and you don’t like picking the highly bet (70% bets) and highly bought (78% of money) Seattle team, then consider the X and O’s; the 49ers run a man to man defensive scheme that is prime for Russ, Lockett, and Metcalf to pick apart.
I have a half unit bet on Seattle +3 -115 already in play. We will see what happens later in the week and if the opportunity presents itself to put the other half on them at +3 or better I will pull that trigger. This is a high total, but I see a high scoring game, I am just not sure if I can bet either way on this one confidently this early in the week.
Baltimore at Denver +1 O/U44.5:
It feels wrong to end with my last two picks being the “square” picks in terms of early week ticket and money count. Baltimore has seen 82% of bets and 88% of money since opening up at 1.5-point dogs on the road against the Broncos. I know Baltimore barely beat the Lions, if not for a record setting field goal by Justin Tucker, and the Broncos are 3-0, but let’s look at who these teams have each played. Baltimore lost in OT to the undefeated Las Vegas Raiders, beat the Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions, as previously mentioned. Denver has played the Giants, Jaguars, and Jets who are a combined 0-9 to start the season. I am far more willing to give the Ravens the benefit of the doubt for looking past the Lions after a huge win against a conference rival in week 2. Denver, on the other hand, doesn’t have anything near a signature win. The wrong team is favored and I would not be surprised to see this line close at a PK.
This was my favorite bet early this week. I am on Baltimore +1.5, Baltimore +110 ML and I have them in a teaser play at +7 crossing the key number of 3 and landing on the key number of 7.
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- Written by David Biggs
Week 4 is here already! That does mean that we can begin to chart some trends of player trajectories moving into the middle of the season, though. Choose your lineups carefully this week and pay attention to all of the injury news that comes out as we get closer to Thursday Night Football.
Good luck, and feel free to reach out to me at
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- Written by Jim Hutchins
It's the end of another exciting week of football which means it's time to put your claims in for available free agents in your fantasy league to strengthen your team. I'll be going over who I think are the top five picks for you to target this week so don't miss out on them. Good luck!
Note: %owned is based on Yahoo! leagues at the time of publication.
5) Josh Gordon (KC) - 5% owned – Mostly a flier if you have the bench space but this is a great landing spot on a high octane offense looking for another weapon at the wide receiver position. May be a few weeks before Gordon ends up getting involved in the offense.
4) Tennessee (TEN) - 15% owned - The Titans go up against an anemic Jets offense that put up a goose egg last week. Look for rookie quarterback Zach Wilson to continue to struggle and turn the ball over in this one.
3) Emmanuel Sanders (BUF) - 26% owned – Sanders is coming off a productive week catching 5 of 6 targets for 94 yards and 2 TDs. He may be the #3 option behind Diggs and Beasley but should still produce on a team that is very pass heavy.
2) Tim Patrick (DEN) - 23% owned – The Broncos are getting very thin at the receiver position after KJ Hamler went down with a torn ACL. Patrick should be thrust into high volume targets for the next few weeks until Jerry Jeudy returns from IR.
1) Chuba Hubbard (CAR) - 26% owned – With Christian McCaffrey likely to miss a couple games, Hubbard becomes the next man up. He did well in when thrust into action in week 3 getting 52 yards on 11 carries and another 27 on 3 catches.
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- Written by Jason Evans
Welcome to Statistically (in)Significant, the place to find great stats that probably only matter at the water cooler (or bar). Each week I'll dig through the stats of the week gone by and deliver you some choice conversation starters. All fantasy stats are half PPR scoring unless otherwise noted.
42 Offensive Plays
The Cincinnati Bengals had only 42 plays (excluding 4th down) on offense against the Steelers on Sunday and showed me that perhaps quantity isn’t everything. On last week’s podcast, I stressed that the Bengals just need to throw the ball a lot more in order to get their offense going. After all, their strength is really in the receiving core they have built. So, Joe Burrow throwing 18 passes is not what I would have considered a ticket to victory. It would appear, however, that efficiency is everything. Burrow’s final stat line of 14/18 for 172 yards and 3 TDs (and 1 INT) was plenty for victory, compared to Ben Roethlisberger going 38/58 for 318 yards, 1 TD and 2 INT. That’s right, Ben threw the ball an astonishing 40 times more than his opponent. Hell, he targeted Najee Harris 19 times – that’s more than Burrow’s total attempts! So, I still think that the Bengals need to throw the ball in order to have success this year – and I’m sort of backed up in the stats with 3 TDs through the air, but I certainly got a big lesson in how important it is to be efficient on the football field.
66 Yard Field Goal
Usually, kickers are buried at the bottom of my column, but this week they certainly deserve a more prominent position. First of all, congrats to Justin Tucker, who finally broke the NFL record for the longest made field goal at 66 yards. As the best kicker in history, (sorry, Adam Vinatieri), it feels like it was only inevitable that Tucker would eventually break this record – it was just a matter of being given a chance. Jacksonville taught us all a lesson this week about why you don’t necessarily attempt field goals that long. At the end of the first half on Sunday, Matt Prater lined up to attempt a 68-yard field goal, which fell short and was returned 109 yards by Jamal Agnew of the Jags for a touchdown as time expired in the half. Apparently, it’s really hard to stop a guy on a return when you have a kicker, a holder, and 9 linemen on the field – rather than your normal kicking team. Agnew wasn’t touched once he crossed his own 40-yard line. It was an eventful day for kickers across the league. 10 kickers finished with 10+ fantasy points, and we were treated to a night cap of Mason Crosby kicking a 51-yard field goal to cap yet another Aaron Rodgers comeback.
7 Players with Rush Attempts
The San Fransisco 49ers are currently on the hunt for a starting RB. Trey Sermon was the starter in name last night, and did receive 10 carries, but that wasn’t even quite half of the 21 carries attempted by the team in the game. Six other players carried the ball for the 49ers, none of them doing so very effectively. Overall, the team had 21 carries for 67 yards, good for just 3.2 ypc. At least they did find the end zone twice. The 49ers need a featured back to make their offense run correctly, and they have been decimated by injury this year, so unless someone can step up into the role, it’s going to be a long year in San Fransisco. Hell, they had more players attempt a rush than catch a pass. I’m not sure the last time that happened, but it feels like some 1940’s football right there. The Packers had the opposite true – targeting 9 different players (technically…) while only two players had rushing attempts. That technicality? Well, I’m sure that Aaron Rodgers didn’t mean to target himself when he caught a pass off a deflection for 4 yards.
47 Total Yards
The Bears offense reached new lows on Sunday against a Cleveland Browns defense that feasted on rookie QB Justin Fields. The Bears total yardage – basically a net total, gains minus losses, was 47 for the entire team. Fields had 68 total passing yards, and lost 67 yards over the course of the 9 sacks that he had. No player on the Bears had more than 2 receptions. The Browns were able to run the ball 42 times, while the Bears attempted a combined 33 passes and rushes. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt both outgained the Bears with their rushing yardage totals, and then Hunt did it again through the air with 74 more yards. Odell Beckham Jr. returned to the lineup, and also outgained the entire Chicago offense. Throughout the league, we had a number of plays that outgained the entire Bears offense on a single snap of the ball. Justin Tucker’s 66-yard record breaking FG, Mason Crosby’s game winning FG (51 yards), Antonio Gibson’s 73-yard touchdown reception, Jamal Angew’s 109-yard return TD, and many other field goals and other big plays. The point I’m trying to make here is that the Bears gained just 47 more yards of offense than I did on Sunday, and I barely left the couch.
12 QBs over 20 Fantasy Points
Time for a quick QB roundup. Josh Allen led the way this week, scoring 5 total touchdowns in the second straight game where his team put up 35+ points on their opponent – this time it was on the Washington defense that was very respected last year. Speaking of Football Teams, capital F, capital T, Taylor Heinicke just put up his second straight game above 20 fantasy points. It’s looking like he could take the starting job for the entire season, and he’s only owned in 27% of Fleaflicker leagues, so hit that wire! Landing just outside this top 12 was Kyler Murray, putting up just 19.54 points in Jacksonville – though he still keeps the season lead among all QBs with 89.2 fantasy points through three games. Justin Herbert finally has a signature win in his young career, and had a huge fantasy day. Leading a late TD drive, Herbert put up 4 total TDs and broke the 30-point mark. Elsewhere at QB, Sam Darnold is averaging 21.6 ppg, Aaron Rodgers is averaging 16.22 points per game, and Tom Brady has 4 carries for 20 yards. Nice.
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- Written by Matt Cochrane
Two weeks in the books, and almost 1/3rd of the pool has been eliminated. Cleveland gave me a little bit of a scare when they trailed the Texans briefly last Sunday. But, we managed to get both picks through again. Seattle and Pittsburgh caused the most casualties last week, with no huge upsets occurring. After watching the Thursday game this week, I think I may have made a strategical error in not locking in a Panthers pick while I could. I stayed away because I'm not a Sam Darnold believer yet. After watching the Panthers offense for the first time this year, I'm not sure I will be able to trust them to win against any opponent other than Houston playing a rookie backup QB.
The Denver Broncos are my top pick this week. After starting the first two weeks on the road against a couple of tomato cans they return for their home opener to face the hapless Jets. That Denver crowd should be fired up and loud after a 2-0 start and that defense will cause fits for rookie Zach Wilson. Teddy Bridgewater should have another good game as well against a week Jets secondary.
I like the Broncos so much I almost wanted to use them for both picks. But alas strange things can happen in the NFL, so I want to spread out my eggs a little bit. My second pick for the week is the Arizona Cardinals. After narrowly escaping the Vikings last week on a missed field goal at the end of the game the Cardinals travel to Jacksonville to feast on the winless Jags. The undefeated Cardinals are just too powerful on offense for Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars to hang.
Lots of good games this weekend should make for a fun Sunday!
Cheers! Drink Five!
ENTRY #1 ENTRY #2
RAMS BUCCANEERS
BUCCANEERS BROWNS
BRONCOS CARDINALS