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Back again this year to take a shot at winning all the money and the glory of being the survivor pool champion. So far I am off to a poor start. I procrastinated on getting my payment in and the gentleman who runs the pool only excepts cash/check payments to a P.O. Box. So I mailed my check on Tuesday hoping it will be enough time to make yesterdays deadline. My hesitation might have stifled me, but hopefully my article can help our Drinkfive followers win some greenbacks.

 

Last year my early season strategy was to look for the lower tier teams that had favorable match-ups to get all the stinkers out of the way and give me more options as the season went on. Well that ended up biting me in the ass when first time starter Brian Hoyer crushed my dreams early on leading the then win-less Browns over the Vikings. So this year I am going to adjust my strategy a bit and keep it simple stupid. With that in mind I am picking this week's biggest favorite the Philadelphia Eagles to roll over the always rebuilding Jacksonville Jaguars. Last year the Jags defense appeared to be on the rise at the end of the season, but they will not have enough offense to keep up with the high octane Eagles. The 10.5 point favorites should win handily in their home opener, while the Jags fans anxiously await the debut of rookie QB Blake Bortles. I set the over under at 6 games until he is anointed the starter.

 

Have a great season everybody!

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Welcome to a new season of the Rookie Report. ARE YOU READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL!? The NFL kickoff is less than an hour away as I write this, and I’m sure all us football junkies are getting jittery with anticipation (or maybe just drunk). For those of you unfamiliar with the Rookie Report, each week I’ll give a rundown of the rookies you should start for sure, borderline starting options, guys who should stay on the bench, and throw in some deep league sleepers. I’ll give my thoughts on their outlook for the week which you can hopefully use to effectively utilize your rookies. They are the hardest players in fantasy to predict.

 

Alright, that’s enough jibber-jabber. Let’s get to it. Since this is week 1, I’m going to start off by quickly laying out my top 10 fantasy rookies for this season. They aren’t necessarily the most talented players, just the ones who will have the best fantasy value this year.

  1. Bishop Sankey, RB, TEN: It shouldn’t take long for Sankey to overtake Shonn Greene as lead back for the Titans. The Titans have a very good o-line and Sankey should be a low-end RB2 for most of the year. He’s also the Titans’ best pass-catching back.
  2. Brandin Cooks, WR, NO: Cooks will be a PPR monster from the get-go. He’s basically a more polished Tavon Austin with a coach who knows how to create mismatches with his schemes. Kenny Stills injury should help Cooks hit the ground running.
  3. Jeremy Hill, RB, CIN: For those of you who don’t know, Gio Bernard is not an every down workhorse back, and BenJarvus Green-Ellis is no longer a Bengal. The Bengals are planning on running a lot more this year with Hue Jackson in charge of the offense. Hill will see plenty of work, especially at the goal-line. Should be a weekly flex option.
  4. Mike Evans, WR, TB: Evans dominated defenses at A&M, and he has the size and skill to do so at the next level too. He’ll be a big red zone target who has a real shot at 10+ TDs. McCown proved last year he can find big receivers in the end zone.
  5. Jordan Matthews, WR, PHI: Matthews opens the season in the slot, but he could overtake Riley Cooper for the number 2 role before long. He has elite talent in an explosive offense. Only a matter of time before he explodes.
  6. Sammy Watkins, WR, BUF: The Bills traded up to get Watkins to be their WR #1, so he’ll undoubtedly be a big part of the offensive gameplan, but inconsistent quarterback play will limit his upside. Bills are also expected to be the one of the run-heaviest teams in the league. Watkins should be hoping Orton takes the QB job from E.J. sooner rather than later.
  7. Kelvin Benjamin, WR, CAR: Kelvin had some big red flags in his college career (drops, questions about effort & attitude), but no rookie WR will have more opportunity. Opens as Panthers’ de facto number 1, but should suffer some growing pains. He’s ikely to score at least 7 TDs.
  8. Jace Amaro, TE, NYJ: Amaro should easily be the most productive rookie tight end. With David Nelson as the team’s #2 WR, Geno should lean on Amaro a lot. He’s essentially an oversized slot receiver, and he should be a great option in PPR leagues.
  9. Derek Carr, QB, OAK: Carr is the only rookie QB with a starting job. I wouldn’t be shocked if Matt Cassel and Chad Henne hold off their more talented backups for half the season, and Manziel is far from a sure thing even if he beats out Hoyer in the first few weeks. Carr looks the part and had an impressive preseason. Could be a low-end QB2.
  10. Cody Latimer, WR, DEN: Wes Welker’s suspension and concussion issues could open the door for a big rookie season for Latimer. He’s more talented than Andre Caldwell and a better fit for the outside WR spot vacated by Eric Decker than free agent signee Emmanuel Sanders. Could do big things with Peyton Manning throwing him the rock.

Honorable Mention:Johnny Manziel, QB, CLE, Eric Ebron, TE, DET, Allen Robinson, WR, JAX, Devonta Freeman, RB, ATL, Andre Williams, RB, NYG

 

Alright, with that laid out, let’s move on to week number one…

Rookies to Start:

WR Brandin Cooks, NO (Wk. 1: @Atl): Cooks is the one rookie that I would certainly recommend starting this week. It seems like Kenny Stills is unlikely to play, and the game could be a shootout. I think Cooks is ready to go off. In PPR leagues, he should be a solid WR3 or flex play. He might not score a TD, but I’d be shocked by anything less than 5 catches, and he has the wheels to take it to the house at any given time.

Borderline Rookies:

RB Bishop Sankey, TEN (Wk. 1: @KC): Am I in love with Sankey in week one against a typically stout Chiefs’ front? No. Do I think he’s capable of a productive week? Absolutely. I’d probably lean against playing Sankey this week, but I think he’ll get a bigger share of the work than the preseason usage would suggest. I think Sankey sees 15+ touches in the opener, with 70-80 total yards.

WR Sammy Watkins, BUF (WK 1: @Chi.): Watkins has been banged up for much of the preseason, but he’ll be good to go on Sunday. The Bears’ boasted one of the worst defenses in the NFL a year ago, and they haven’t looked that much better in the preseason. I wouldn’t expect a breakout with E.J. Manuel throwing him the ball, but Watkins could have a nice debut. I’d expect somewhere in the range of 4-5 catches for around 60 yards, but wouldn’t be surprised if he does more.

WR Mike Evans, TB (Wk. 1: vs. Car.): The Panthers’ strength on defense is their front 7. Evans’s size is going to create problems for the secondary, especially if they double-team Vincent Jackson like most teams did last year. Evans is as good a bet as any Buccaneer to find the end zone in week one, but I wouldn’t expect a huge catch tally. The Bucs will be a run-first team.

WR Kelvin Benjamin, CAR (Wk. 1: @TB): Benjamin’s value for week one really hinges on Cam Newton. Newton is listed as a game-time decision right now, but even if he plays I’d imagine the ribs will limit his effectiveness. If Cam doesn’t go, there’s no way you start Kelvin. If he does play, you’re pretty much hoping for a TD. Benjamin likely won’t go much over 50 yards against a pretty solid Tampa defense.

WR Jordan Matthews, PHI (Wk 1: vs. Jax.): Matthews was a standout all August for the Eagles after a shaky preseason debut. There will be a lot of mouths to feed in this offense, and this game looks like an easy Philly victory, but Matthews has been so efficient with his targets that it may only take 5 or 6 looks in his direction to have a productive week. He may be worth a shot in some deeper leagues.

 

Rookies to Sit:

QB Derek Carr, OAK (Wk. 1: @NYJ): Carr may be starting for Oakland, but he shouldn’t be starting on your fantasy team. Rex Ryan loves to blitz, and Carr will be in a hostile environment. Carr played in a college offense that featured a lot of short passes and easy reads. The Jets defense will be anything but easy to read. I’d expect Carr to be rattled by the pressure and have a shaky first outing. Surely you can find 2 quarterbacks (If in a 2-QB league) that you should play ahead of him.

RB Jeremy Hill, CIN (Wk. 1: @Bal.): Although I’m very bullish on Hill for the season, I think week one is not the best place to utilize him. The Ravens’ defense is always pretty good, and at we still aren’t completely sure how the work will be split between Hill and Gio. Gio got the 1st team reps in goal line situations in the preseason, but averaged barely over 2.5 yards a carry for the preseason tilts. Hill will certainly see work in week one, but I want to be sure the touchdowns are coming his way before I start trotting him out there in the weekly lineup.

RB Andre Williams, NYG (Wk. 1: @Det.): After the Hall of Fame game, Williams looked like he would share work with Rashad Jennings and be a really nice player this year, but that sentiment faded over the last few games of the preseason. He’ll still get some carries, maybe even a red zone tote or 2, but merely as a change of pace back for now. Jennings will be a 3-down back in the early going. Until that starts to shift, Williams should stay benched.

 

Deep League Sleepers:

RB Jonathan Grimes, HOU (Wk. 1: vs. Was.): I list Grimes here because we haven’t seen Arian Foster play a single down of preseason football due to injury. Foster insists he feels “wonderful,” but I bet the Texans still intend to spell him more than the average bell cow running back and Grimes has been the most impressive of the backups. The Redskins defense was sieve –like last year, so Grimes could have a nice game with just a handful of carries.

RB Lorenzo Taliaferro, BAL (Wk. 1: vs. Cin.): Ray Rice is suspended for the first 2 games of the season, and Bernard Pierce has spent the majority of the preseason banged up. Taliaferro is a perfect fit for OC Gary Kubiak’s one-cut zone running scheme, so if he gets a chance to spell Pierce and looks good, they may ride the hot hand. Kubiak was the OC in Denver as they had a different RB break 1,000 yards every year back in the late ‘90’s-early ‘00’s. Remember Olandis Gary, Mike Anderson and Rueben Droughns? There are a couple of obstacles for the rook though. The Bengals’ defense should be stout up front with Geno Atkins back, and Justin Forsett is listed as the number 2 back headed into the weekend. Don’t be shocked if the rook does find some work however.

WR Cody Latimer, DEN (Wk. 1: vs. Ind.): ESPN’s Broncos beat writer Jeff Legwold reported that the two primary players the Broncos will use to fill Wes Welker’s production are Emmanuel Sanders and Latimer. There was no mention of Andre Caldwell, who is currently listed above Latimer on the depth chart. I think that means we’ll see Latimer lined up outside in 3-WR sets with Sanders in the slot. It’s a huge boon for Latimer’s week one outlook in what should be a shootout with the Colts. There are always plenty of targets to go around with Peyton under center, and I think a line of 5-75-1 is very possible for Latimer in week one. There won’t be any questions after this week about whether or not he’s ahead of Caldwell in the pecking order.

TE Jace Amaro, NYJ (Wk. 1: vs. Oak.): Amaro gets a plus matchup in week one in an offense where he should be the second-best receiver on the team. I don’t expect the Jets to be explosive or for Amaro to pile up touchdowns, but he should see plenty of targets all year. In deep PPR leagues (14 or more teams), I think Amaro could be a nice play this week. He should see 6+ targets.

That’s all I’ve got for week one. Hopefully it helps you out. Now you can go ahead, kick back and enjoy the first weekend of NFL games that count since the Super Bowl. I’ll end the column with the same advice I always do: Trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.

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OK, thanks for coming back and reading my picks again for the third year, but before you read any further just stop. I want you to take a deep breath – I’ll wait … … …

Can you smell that? It’s football! And it’s back!!

 

The 2014 NFL season is finally upon us with the defending champion Seahawks to kick things off against the Packers this Thursday. The great thing about the NFL is that things really do reset every year. Seattle is an obvious choice to repeat, but not a definite one. It is always anybody’s game.

 

Which makes my job pretty hard in week 1! After an off-season of changes, we really don’t have a complete idea of what these 32 teams have to offer for 2014. Week 1 is always the most difficult week in a confidence pool. Stick with me though and you’ll be on your way to weekly and cumulative success!

 

Week 1…2014…HERE WE GO!!!

(HOME TEAM IN CAPS)

 

16 – PHILADELPHIA over Jacksonville – I actually like the foundation the Jaguars seem to be laying. Blake Bortles could be a top quarterback at some point. That point just isn’t right now, mainly because he’s not starting yet, and the Jags are still the Jags.

 

15 – CHICAGO over Buffalo – It’s a little odd to think the Monsters of the Midway moniker now seems to be more fitting of the blue and orange offense. Even with a healthy Sammy Watkins, the Bills wouldn’t be able to match the fire power of the Bears.

 

14 – KANSAS CITY over Tennessee – The Chiefs were the big “Worst to First” story of last season and should be able to carry that momentum into the new season. Hopefully, for their sake, they can forget about blowing a huge lead in the playoffs. Playing the Titans should be able to help them quickly forget.

 

13 – PITTSBURGH over Cleveland – The Browns ended up as the answer for one of the biggest questions of the 2014 NFL Draft - who will draft Johnny Manziel. So for that, and really several reasons, Cleveland does not deserve to win this week.

 

12 – New England over MIAMI – I think we may be seeing the end of the Patriots dominance of the AFC East soon. It’s just not going to be this year.

 

11 – DENVER over Indianapolis – I’m still pretty proud of the fact that I called the Colts handing the Broncos first loss last season on a Sunday Night Football game. The two are back on Sunday Night again, but this time it’s in Denver and I’m pretty sure the Broncos still have the taste of the Super Bowl still in their minds.

 

10 – DETROIT over New York Giants – The Monday Night schedule starts in Motown this year. The Lions still have one of the biggest offenses with all-everything receiver Calvin Johnson. The Giants are going to be a confusing team this year – and I don’t mean that in a good way at all.

 

9 – ARIZONA over San Diego – The second half of the opening week Monday Night double header takes place in Arizona. I think the Cardinals offense will surprise many this year. If Carson Palmer can stay healthy, Bruce Arians will want to air it out and Palmer has the options to do so.

 

8 – HOUSTON over Washington – I don’t have any faith in RGIII. He still needs to prove something to me in order to be considered a top quarterback. With JJ Watt on one side of the Houston defensive line and Jadeveon Clowney now on the other side, Griffin should be able to be contained enough for the Texans to end their 14 game skid.

 

7 – DALLAS over San Francisco – Suspensions and injuries will catch up to the 49ers this year weakening the once dominant unit. A strong offense will help out the Cowboy’s weak defense which leads to Jerry’s boys being the subject of the first ever BOLD PREDICTION OF THE WEEK – THE COWBOYS WILL WIN THE NFC EAST THIS SEASON. (see, it’s a bold prediction because, well, the letters are in bold type…see what I did there?)

 

6 – Cincinnati over BALTIMORE – The road to a repeat in the AFC North won’t be as smooth as it was for Cincy last year. However an offense with so many options should help the Bengals get past this first big road test.

 

5 – SEATTLE over Green Bay – A game that Packer fans have been waiting for since two replacement refs had absolutely no idea what was going on in the end zone. Green Bay should give the Seahawks a run in the NFC this year, but the 12th man celebrating the city’s first championship since the 70’s will prove to be a bit too much to handle.

 

4 – ATLANTA over New Orleans – The NFC South might be the most entertaining division this year. You can make a claim that all four teams could finish on top, including the league’s basement dwellers a year ago the Falcons. Look for Atlanta to rebound in a big way this year. There’s no better way to start than knocking off the Saints.

 

3 – Carolina over TAMPA BAY – Staying in the division, the defending champs have a tough start defending their crown. Simply put, this game, and really the Panther’s season, relies on the health of Cam Newton. It looks like he should be a go, but if not, keep this game on the same line put the Bucs as the winner.

 

2 – Minnesota over ST. LOUIS – While doing your fantasy football research over the summer, you saw that the Rams were set to be a team to watch on the defensive end. They get a tough test to prove themselves right off the bat with Adrian Peterson. I don’t think they can pass this test.

 

1 – Oakland over NEW YORK JETS – The future for the Raiders has come a little earlier than expected. Second round pick Derek Carr ends up being the first quarterback in the 2014 Draft to start a game. Carr looked solid in the pre-season and a revamped defense may be able to contain the Jets enough to help Carr keep his composure on the road.

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Chris Ferguson from Sacramento, CA asks: First year fantasy player here.. I didn't end up getting a top defense in the draft because they all seemed to go to early. I've heard about the value of streaming defenses but was wondering if it would be better to just grab one that could be good all year. Here's my situation: I have the Jets that I picked up for their week 1 match-up against Oakland, but I could pick up Tampa Bay, Baltimore, New Orleans, Arizona, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, or Baltimore. So my question is, what would you do here in week 1 and going forward with those options? 

 

Chris,

Welcome to the drug we call fantasy football! I have to commend you on waiting on a defense in your first draft. Defensive strategy in fantasy football is a tricky thing. In my opinion you get way more value out of a positional player throughout the year so I usually follow the strategy of waiting until the last couple rounds to take my defense. Following this strategy I know going in that I am going to be playing match ups week to week with my defenses. This is going to be your best bet heading into your first year. Luckily, a lot of the work is done for you. A good source for tracking the best match ups are odds websites. I prefer the Vegas odds sites because they are incredibly good at what they do. What you're looking for when checking these odds sites is the over/under scores. Find the lowest over/under games and base your weekly defense on that game. Other factors come in to play too, but this is always a good start. Opposing QB's and play-makers, game time weather reports, and specific stat categories are all things you will want to look up to increase your odds of your defense performing well. In Week 1 you have a good defense in the Jets. They have solid linebackers and apply a lot of pressure with their 3 man front. The Jets are also going up against a rookie QB in Derek Carr. Carr is prone to make mistakes considering his inexperience and the likely pressure Rex Ryan will send. They are also one of the lowest over/under picks with 39.5 points. On a side note. Keep an eye on Tampa Bay. Lovie Smith is proven defensive coach and specializes in teaching his team takeaways which leads to big points for fantasy defenses. If you have more questions as your season continues just drop a line or log into the podcast chat room. Get to the podcast early for important questions; the advice from Dave and Jason is solid, but you want to get your question answered before the shots start being poured!

 

Steve312 from Chicago writes: So I just heard the news about Derek Carr starting ahead of Matt Schaub for the Raiders. Assuming that he starts for the rest of the year, which receiver on Oakland benefits the most (Rod Streater, James Jones or Denarius Moore) and could any of them be fantasy relevant as early as week 1? Thanks!

 

Steve,

It's Oakland. WHO CARES? In all seriousness there are guys to keep an eye on, but far too much is uncertain at this point. In week 1 none of the Oakland wide receivers will be relevant. The Jets secondary may not be anything to fear, but their defensive line always finds a way to get to quarterback. Fantasy value decreases for wide receivers when their rookie QB is getting blitzed and put on his ass frequently. Keep an eye on Rod Streater this season. He is a third year wide out who broke out last season. James Jones is the new guy on the block and is going to have to make adjustments after previously being thrown to from the best QB in the league. We're going to have to see what he has before you can even think about adding him to your bench. Denarius Moore's value is seriously hampered by his spot on the depth chart. If you aren't an X or a Y it is tough to maintain consistent fantasy value.

 

Mike from New York asks: Somehow I wound up scooping up some late round Dolphins in one of my leagues. In my flex spot, I'm trying to decide between Mike Wallace and Lamar Miller. With the recent resurgence of Knowshon Moreno, I'm not not sure if Miller is the go to guy in my flex anymore. Should I go with Wallace instead?

 

Mike,

I like the easy questions!  Mike Wallace is your play here between those two players. Lamar Miller was disappointing in the preseason and Moreno appears to have a little left in his tank. Knowshon Moreno's health is still a concern, but not in week 1. Wallace was disappointing last year after getting the big contract, but all reports are positive this preseason and he is working overtime after practices. There is a caution in week 1 as Wallace is likely to be on Revis Island. Considering he is your flex player you shouldn't be too concerned. My bet is he gets in the end zone in week 1 and that's all you really want. 

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The 3rd year wide receiver theory has been a staple for fantasy football fans year after year. The theory is based on the idea that wide receivers take at least 2 years to fully develop at the NFL level. Players like Reggie Wayne, Greg Jennings, Roddy White and Sidney Rice all had breakout years in their 3rd season. Players and coaches alike all agree that this is no fluke due to the learning curve associated at the wide receiver position between college and the pros. The 2014 season promises to be one of the best wide receiver break-out seasons, if tradition holds true. The 2012 wide receiver draft class was stacked with talent. That leads us to our list of 3rd year wide receivers to keep an eye and target for your upcoming draft.

 

Alshon Jeffery, CHI

2013 Stats: 89 Rec. 1,421 Yds. 7 TD's
2014 Projections: 85 Rec. 1,300 Yds. 8 TD's
2014 Ranking/ADP: 23rd Overall/ 26thADP
(Rankings and ADP Values as of August 14th)

 

Jeffery's sophomore year flew in the face of the 3rd year theory. He combined with Brandon Marshall to create the best wide receiver duo in the league under the first year of Marc Trestman's tenure as head coach. The Bears offense is only going to improve with more practice and time in the same system. Last season Alshon Jeffery showed off a skill set including crisp route running, strong hands and a highlight reel circus catches. While his 2nd season was his break out season, the 3rd year theory is still very much alive for Jeffery. He now has 2 season of experience under his belt and a full off-season of training to build on in 2014. Alshon Jeffery won't make it out of the third round in most leagues.

 

Michael Floyd, ARI

2013 Stats: 65 Rec. 1,041 Yds. 5 TD's
2014 Projections: 80 Rec. 1,200 Yds. 8 TD's
2014 Ranking/ADP: 48th Overall/ 62nd ADP
(Rankings and ADP Values as of August 14th)

 

Floyd is the perfect candidate for the 3rd year theory. He made great strides last year while breaking the 1,000 yard mark, but fantasy owners would like to see a guy get in the end zone a little bit more. At the beginning of the 2014 regular season Larry Fitzgerald will be 31 years old and entering his 11th season. Fitzgerald didn't have a bad year last season, especially with 10 TD's, but his age is a concern. Michael Floyd stepping up last season just set the table for a break out 2014 season. Carson Palmer is going to lean heavily on the younger wide receiver after a successful 2013. As of right now Michael Floyd is an amazing value pick with an ADP of 62nd. That probably won't hold up as he continues to impress throughout the preseason, but I still expect him to be a value pick in the 5th round.

 

Kendall Wright, TEN

2013 Stats: 94 Rec. 1,079 Yds. 2 TD's
2014 Projections: 90 Rec. 1,100 Yds. 6 TD's
2014 Ranking/ADP: 69th Overall/ 86th ADP
(Rankings and ADP Values as of August 14th)

 

Wright is another 3rd year wide receiver who showed break out talent in his 2nd year. Where I expect to see Kendall Wright achieve official break out status is in the end zone this year. His 94 receptions last year make him an obvious choice in PPR leagues, but no matter what format you draft in you are going to want to pay attention to him. At 5'10" he is a little shorter than you would want in a wide receiver but he makes up for it by catching everything. Tennessee has no other clear cut star offensive weapon except for Kendall Wright. He is currently ranked 69th overall and early drafters are getting a lot of value with his 86th ADP.

 

Rueben Randle, NYG

2013 Stats: 41 Rec. 611 Yds. 6 TD's
2014 Projections: 65 Rec. 900 Yds. 8 TD's
2014 Ranking/ADP: 92nd Overall/ 124th ADP
(Rankings and ADP Values as of August 14th)

 

Randle was most likely everyone's least favorite waiver pickup last season after having a strong 3 games in October before finishing the season in lackluster fashion. This season Randle is on my radar as the Giants look to find a replacement for Hakeem Nicks. Randle is a tall, well-built wide receiver with all the tools to break out in 2014. He is going to see more play time this season as the #2 on the Giants offense and I expect him to be Eli's favorite receiver in the red zone. Don't let the shaky 2013 Giant offense scare you. We saw this once before and they bounced back to a Super Bowl win. Randle is currently ranked 92nd overall with an ADP of 124th. I believe his money spot in value is somewhere in-between those two numbers right now, but that could change as we see more of him in the preseason.

 

Jarret Boykin, GB

2013 Stats: 49 Rec. 681 Yds. 3 TD's
2014 Projections: 60 Rec. 850 Yds. 5 TD's
2014 Ranking/ADP: 133rd Overall/ 170th ADP
(Rankings and ADP Values as of August 14th)

 

Boykin had a handful of impressive games last season. He is the first guy on this list to not be a number one or number two receiver for his team, but don't let that stop you from drafting some great value on your team this year. The Green Bay offense is built around Aaron Rodgers and he likes to distribute the ball to keep defenses guessing. You will have to keep an eye on the Packers at camp to see what is going on with the number three position, but I feel that Jarrett Boykin earned his opportunity last season. Boykin is a great addition to any team especially with his current rank to ADP differential.

 

Rod Streater, OK

2013 Stats: 60 Rec. 888 Yds. 4 TD's
2014 Projections: 60 Rec. 850 Yds. 5 TD's
2014 Ranking/ADP: 163rd Overall/ 237th ADP
(Rankings and ADP Values as of August 14th)

 

Streater is currently listed on the Oakland depth chart as the number two receiver with Andre Holmes. The situation in Oakland is interesting and fantasy players are going to want to keep an eye on things on the left coast if you plan on drafting a Raider. Holmes and Streater are likely to be the guys in my opinion. Streater is primed for a break out year as he has shown good improvement in each of his previous two seasons. The Raiders also upgraded their quarterback position by signing Matt Schaub. Streater is currently ranked 163rd with an ADP of 237th. You can take a flier on Streater late if you have the adequate depth at your other positions, but chances are he will go undrafted in many leagues. I recommend you keep an eye on him as one of your waiver wire targets. He could prove very valuable once we all see what Oakland's offense is going to look like.

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By now, everyone has heard about the third year wide receivers and their breakout years. If you haven't, Troy would like to have a word with you. Over here at drinkfive, we've noticed that there's a lot of guys breaking out in their second season now. I'm not talking about guys who are just getting noticed, I mean guys who are fantasy relevant right now. For example, Alshon Jeffery, T.Y. Hilton, Michael Floyd and Josh Gordon were all second year guys last year. They, with Kendall Wright, all had over 1000 yards receiving in 2013. Here are six guys who you want to seriously consider drafting, and you will find that most, if not all of them, have great draft value as well.

 

Keenan Allen, SD

2013 Stats: 71 Rec, 1046 Yds, 8 TD's
2014 Projection: 85 Rec, 1250 Yds, 8 TD's
2014 Ranking/ADP: 30 Overall / 37 ADP

(Rankings and ADP from 8/14/14)

 

Allen was clearly the standout rookie from last season, being the only first year WR to put up over 1000 yards. Allen is definitely the beneficiary of injuries to people around him, but he made the most of it. Allen had only 12 targets in the first 3 games, so he even has room for his numbers to go up! Last year, Allen caught 71 of 105 targets, so Rivers is going to know he can rely on him when he throws it his way. Allen had 5 games over 100 yards receiving and 7 games over 10 points in a standard league. His current ADP at the end of the 4th round is great value for a guy that has a serious chance to be a WR1. Heck, we put him in our top 10 on a podcast in the offseason.

 

Cordarrelle Patterson, MIN

2013 Stats: 45 Rec, 469 Yds, 4 TD (+ 5 other TD's!)
2014 Projection: 60 Rec, 900 Total Yds, 10 Total TD's
2014 Ranking/ADP: 50 Overall / 51 ADP
(Rankings and ADP from 8/14/14)

 

Patterson is a fun player to watch. He's got the chance to score every time he touches the ball, and his 9 TD's in three different ways last year goes to prove that. Patterson will be given an increased role in Minnesota this season, and will not be held back by weak quarterbacks as much as his teammates. He has value as a runner and returner, which accounted for 5 of his TD's last year. Patterson was only targeted 77 times last year and I expect that number to go up to near 100. He's currently sitting at the end of the 5th/beginning of the 6th round. He's got a great nose for the end zone and he'll be a great WR3 or flex guy to throw in there this year. Touchdowns mean consistent week-to-week scoring, which is fantasy gold.

 

Markus Wheaton, PIT

2013 Stats: 6 Rec, 64 Yds
2014 Projection: 65 Rec, 900 Yds, 6 TD
2014 Ranking/ADP: 125 Overall / 174 ADP
(Rankings and ADP from 8/14/14)

 

Wheaton's 2013 campaign was severely hampered by not one, but two broken fingers - Ouch! Thus far in camp, that injury is showing no lingering effects of the injury. There is no lingering competition, either. Wheaton has the 'X' receiver spot all sewn up, and the 113 receptions that Sanders and Cotchery had need to go somewhere. Expect Wheaton's targets to be somewhere north of 100 and to be an important cog in the up-tempo offense that Pittsburgh will be running this year. Wheaton will definitely be the second guy behind Antonio Brown, but after that, there is really no competition for targets for Wheaton. He has all the talent needed to fill that role on the Steelers, it will just come down to staying healthy. Wheaton's ADP shows that he isn't even drafted in most 10 and 12 team leagues. Wheaton will be a HUGE pickup at the very end of the draft to add quality depth to your roster.

 

DeAndre Hopkins, HOU

2013 Stats: 52 Rec, 802 Yds, 2 TD's
2014 Projection:70 Rec, 950 Yds, 5 TD
2014 Ranking/ADP: 105 Overall / 126 ADP
(Rankings and ADP from 8/14/14)

 

Last year, Hopkins had a very respectable 802 yards, but didn't find the end zone enough to be a valuable fantasy player. Houston's awful QB situation last year did him no favors. The addition of Ryan Fitzpatrick is a steady hand that will assure that this does not happen two years in a row. Hopkins had a nice 15 yards per reception and should see increased targets and receptions this year. As long as he can find the end zone a few more times, he will be very worthy of spot starts and bye week replacement duty. His draft position shows he's a very late round flier - I'd suggest Wheaton first though.

 

Kenny Stills, NO

2013 Stats: 32 Rec, 641 Yds, 5 TD's
2014 Projection: 64 Rec, 1200 Yds, 8 TD
2014 Ranking/ADP: 130 Overall / 161 ADP
(Rankings and ADP from 8/14/14)

 

Stills is probably my favorite late round flier, and the guy who I will be taking as often as I can - at the end of the draft that is. Last year, Stills lead the league in yards per reception with 20 yards per catch. During the offseason, the Saints got rid of Lance Moore and Darren Sproles whom had a combined 143 targets. We all know that Drew Brees is going to sling the ball all over the place - he had 650 pass attempts last year, his lowest in 4 years (though still insanely high). The Saints are as pass-heavy as any team in the league and Stills is a burner who will catch the ball. Brees will trust him more in year two, and he should double his targets. Stills reminds me of a young DeSean Jackson, but with a better QB.

 

Terrance Williams, DAL

2013 Stats: 44 Rec, 736 Yds, 5 TD
2014 Projection: 70 Rec, 1000 Yds, 8 TD
2014 Ranking/ADP: 78 Overall / 92 ADP
(Rankings and ADP from 8/14/14)

 

Williams is in a similar situation to Markus Wheaton. They are both the unquestioned starter opposite a stud #1 receiver (Dez Bryant and Antonio Brown, respectively). They are also both moving up the line because the team got rid of an older receiver. Weird coincidences aside, Terrance Williams did get a lot more experience last year compared to Wheaton. Williams was good for almost 17 yards per catch last year, and won't slow down in his increased role with the high flying Dallas offense. Tony Romo also likes to throw the ball - maybe not as much as Drew Brees, but the Cowboys are certainly a pass first kind of team. Being drafted in the 10th round would be great value for him, but don't hesitate to reach for him in the 9th. That's where you draft WR4's and 5's and Williams is going to be a 3 for sure, with potential to be a WR2.

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Wes from Eagleton asks: Lots of guys are "poised" for breakout years, but who is actually going to have the best year: Montee Ball, Andre Ellington, Toby Gerhart or Rashad Jennings? Btw, I play in only PPR leagues!

 

Wes,
Montee Ball is my favorite from this list. The Broncos have made moves that indicate they are interested in taking advantage of the run this season. Orlando Franklin has moved to left guard and will pair with Louis Vasquez at right guard. Both of these men are 6’5" with a combined average weight of 325; they are people movers. Cody Latimer, the second round wide receiver pick for the Broncos, is regarded as one of the best run blocking wide outs in the game. That is yet to be seen, but you get the idea that Denver is focusing on taking advantage of their unique situation when it comes to Peyton Manning. Manning is really the key to Montee Ball breaking out this season. As teams go smaller to protect against the pass Ball will get more room to run. There are also reports that Montee Ball has impressed coaches this off season with his improvement in his receiving game. Considering your addiction to PPR leagues this is another huge positive that puts Ball on the top of this list.

 

Grant P, from Des Moines writes: Getting excited for the fantasy season - my buddies and have our draft scheduled for late August (12 team, PPR) and I'm picking 10th. Based on mock drafts that I've done it looks like I'll miss out on the major RB's and also Jimmy Graham. I'm thinking my strategy will be to take 2 WR's here.. assuming only Calvin Johnson is taken I really like Demariyus Thomas but should my second guy be Dez Bryant, A.J. Green or someone else?

 

Grant P,
12 teams leagues can be tricky. I understand that you have your strategies and you know your league better than I would, but I want to mention something to think about when drafting for a 12 team league. First, to answer your question if you are dead set on taking two WR’s with your first two picks. Dez Bryant and A.J. Green are both projected to be top 5 this fantasy year. While Calvin Johnson and Demariyus Thomas are favorites to be in the top 3 the question really is who is going to be the other top 3 wide out. It really is a toss-up based on past performances, but A.J. Green is the guy I would go with. Green is the go to guy for Andy Dalton and that offense is going to be built around him. He has that Calvin Johnson like ability to make plays even when teams know he is the guy to focus on. Dez Bryant is a play maker in his own right, but A.J. Green is going to take it to new heights this season.


Now a bit of advice, you can take it or leave it. I would highly recommend you grab an RB with your second pick. I am assuming your league uses a traditional snake draft and in that case you risk putting yourself out of serious RB contention if you wait until your third round. Keep an eye on guys like Giovani Bernard, Montee Ball, Le’Veon Bell and even Andre Ellington with your 15th overall pick. Once you get down into the 30th overall pick for your third rounder the talent pool has dropped off a lot. This is especially true considering you are in a PPR league.

 

Jason writes: As a fantasy football fanatic, do you think it's worth it to actually go to a live game on a Sunday, or would you rather the front row couch seat?

 

Jason,
Damn you for bringing this up! I feel a particular allegiance as a Bears fan and this question just tugs at my heart strings. Honestly though when you weigh the pros and cons the best seat in the house is at your house. From a fantasy perspective there is both excitement and strategy involved with this decision. The most apparent reason to stay home is obviously the variety of games you can watch. Going to a game on Sunday really does take you out of the entire Sunday when you add in tailgating, game time and postgame drunkenness. Missing that Sunday as a fantasy fanatic will put you at a disadvantage heading into the following week as you play catch up. You’re also going to risk missing late roster notices for the later games. Now, I know in the world of smart phones and constant internet connectivity you could argue you would have a firm grip on your team and what’s going on, BUT it is important to remember that the rest of the 70,000 fans in the stadium are attempting to do the same. Cell service tends to suck when humanity gets together in large groups. I don’t know if that is a testament to our technological advances or a sad fact that we aren’t truly social anymore. Either way do you really want to risk missing a roster move because the tweens next to you need to upload their “OMG Bears gameeee Selfie!”


Money is the other factor to consider when pondering this decision. Going to an NFL game, or any sporting event, these days is ridiculously expensive. I will save myself the $8.50 bud light and $10 nachos by visiting my local craft brew distributor and grocery chain. Then while I’m sucking down my IPA in all my beer snob glory I have access to multiple games and the ever important “Fantasy Command Post” (FCP). Every fantasy fanatic has his/her own version of the FCP. For me it’s my laptop streaming another game, my tablet updating my scores and news while my phone stands ready for shit talking, bitching and moaning and tweeting #fantasyslut.

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Every year when it gets close to draft time, websites are flooded with articles about who you should and shouldn't pick for your fantasy team. The thing is, unless you're in an auction league and have the ability to take a player at any time based on a value that you assign, you can really only target certain players that have a perceived value to you greater than where they are currently being taken in the draft (in other words, their ADP or Average Draft Position). It's my goal in the next few weeks to go through some fantasy relevant players at each position and provide a short argument for why they should be targeted above their current ADPs. Remember, if the team managers in your league have above-average football intelligence, you will likely have to select these players (and any others you have your eye on) several picks earlier than their ADPs. For the purposes of this article we'll be using the ADP statistics from recent mock drafts (10-team standard league) at Fantasy Football Calculator (a tool that we often use) and you can access that updated data here: http://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp.php?format=standard&year=2014&teams=10&view=graph&pos=all.

 

Kelvin Benjamin

(Current ADP - 12.08)

 

I know, I know. I'm supposed to follow my own advice and temper my expectations for rookies. Especially for rookies like Kelvin, who has had problems in the past specific to dropped passes and a limited route tree. What you can't deny, however, are the favorable comparisons to guys like Alshon Jeffery and Plaxico Burress. Benjamin's measurables are immense: 6'5", 240lbs, 35-inch arms and a 4.5ish 40. Yikes. I'm going to be looking closely at Benjamin's play in upcoming preseason games to gauge his comfort level with the routes he is being asked to run, but from training camp reports we are hearing nothing but great things. In fact, it appears as though he has not yet dropped a ball at all. Finally, Benjamin looks to have no real competition for the starting WR role in Carolina. That said, there is a little talent there in Jerricho Cotchery, Jason Avant and of course Greg Olsen (who will likely end up leading the team in receptions). In fact, I tend to think that the Panthers' receiving core is actually better than it was last year.. Steve Smith showed a large decline in healthy game-to-game production last year (not to mention that his 5'9" frame is a little small for today's NFL) and Brandon LaFell and Ted Ginn have never been standouts (and are easily replaced by Cotchery and Avant in the short term). Bottom Line: the rumors of Cam Newton's demise have been greatly exaggerated and adding a freakishly athletic receiver to the mix should only be a boon to his numbers. While I'm not predicting a top 20 season for Benjamin, I strongly believe that he will finish inside the top 40 wide receivers (if only because of his immediate use in red-zone situations) which would be the right value to select him in the 10th or 11th rounds.

 

Marvin Jones

(Current ADP - 13.06)

 

Marvin Jones stunned the fantasy world last season in his 2nd year when he scored 10 total TDs (including 4 vs. NYJ in Week 8). Even taking out that game (which could be considered a statistical outlier) he improved on his rookie year production by 500+ yards and 5 TDs. And all of this while sharing time on the field with Mohamed Sanu. Although Jones only just came off the PUP list (he had an ankle injury that was not considered serious), he looks to be locked in as the starting receiver for 2014 opposite A.J. Green. This absence from training camp could explain the current low draft position, but don't let it fool you - he will surely be on the rise over the next few weeks as news continues to trickle out from Cincinnati. Most likely, Jones should average between 4-6 receptions per game (I'm predicting around 70 total) which should increase his total receiving yards toward 1000. In other words, even if he doesn't match the 10 TD's from last year his stock should still hover around the same value (he finished 2013 as the #24 WR overall in standard scoring leagues). Even a slight regression in TD's from 2013 then would still put him at the bottom of the top 30 WR's. We're talking about guys here like Emmanuel Sanders, Golden Tate, Kendall Wright, etc. and all of those guys are being drafted right now between rounds 7 and 10. With an ADP of 13.06, Marvin Jones is a prospect that is still being undervalued in rounds 10-12. Wait as late as you can to pick him up.. but not too late! Bottom Line: playing behind A.J. Green will only continue to help Jones.. watch out for a rising ADP over the next few weeks and catch him while you can.

 

Mike Wallace

(Current ADP - 8.01)

 

Reports from training camp are saying that Dolphins' QB Ryan Tannehill and Mike Wallace are still struggling to find a good chemistry on deep routes. Well, just remember that this is still preseason and words fly around like footballs this time of year. Wallace performed better in the last six games of the 2013 season than earlier in the year which makes it a little easier to trust him as a solid fantasy commodity, and new OC Bill Lazor (formerly working as the QB coach under Chip Kelly on the Eagles) has vowed to use Wallace all over the field rather than simply as a deep threat. We know that Wallace is fast and can be productive, and on this team there should be a fair amount of playing catch-up as the Miami defense finished the season in the bottom half of the NFL. Wallace will fill the Desean Jackson role in Lazor's offense and whether or not he and Tannehill are hanging out on their days off, he will exceed his production from 2013. I Expect Wallace to at least more closely approach if not get back to the numbers he had as an instrumental part of the Steelers offense (1,000+ yards, 8+ TDs) which would put him squarely into the top 20 receivers when we look back on the 2014 season. Finally, the Dolphins actually have the most favorable schedule for WRs (calculated here: http://www.fftoolbox.com/football/strength_of_schedule.cfm?type=e&sortby=WR from 2013 season data). Bottom Line: Mike Wallace had a hiccup of a season due to a few reasons (change of teams, coaching staff, new quarterback, etc) but despite that he still finished as a top 30 receiver.. look for his return to form this year.

 

Kenny Stills

(Current ADP - 12.10)

 

Last season Kenny Stills was a one-trick pony, but oh what a nice trick it was. As a rookie, Stills led the league in yards per reception (20.0) and had only one drop while finding the end zone five times. With the departure of Lance Moore and Darren Sproles, there are a lot of targets (143) that need to be filled. There has been talk at camp about Nick Toon and Brandin Cooks, but they are really fighting for the third spot, with Stills solidly in the second spot as long as he's healthy. He will at least split those 143 targets, giving Stills a solid 70+ this year. Taking into consideration Stills' low drop rate, a 60 reception season should net him over 1100 yards. It will look a lot like DeSean Jackson's second and third seasons (2009 & 2010). Stills has the potential to be a solid WR3, especially with a QB like Drew Brees under center. Bottom Line: with an ADP of 12.10, Stills holds fantastic value even a round or two earlier.

 

Markus Wheaton

(Current ADP - not drafted in standard leagues)

 

Of course it's difficult to put faith in a guy that only recorded 64 yards in his rookie campaign. That's what these sort of articles are all about though, right? First, Markus Wheaton is a prototypical burner receiver with a 4.4 40 time and good hands - the reports out of training camp this year have been ridiculous, to put it lightly. "He can be that guy that teams look at in the first four games and are like, 'Who is that dude running past people?'" said Ike Taylor, who's been going against Wheaton at practices (from Rotoworld - http://www.rotoworld.com/recent/nfl/8406/markus-wheaton). Second, the Steelers lost Emmanuel Sanders to the Broncos in the off-season and did not look to replace him from outside sources (they drafted a developmental project WR in Martavis Bryant and picked up Lance Moore (possible split slot duty and Cotchery replacement) and Darrius Heyward-Bey who will provide some depth at the position). It was known last year that Wheaton would have had a bigger role if it wasn't for the two broken fingers that sidelined him for the majority of the 2013 season and it appears that the starting role opposite Antonio Brown is his to lose now. With the Steelers going no-huddle and after a very impressive offensive resurgence in the final weeks last year, it's pretty ridiculous that Wheaton is not even being taken off the board in standard redraft leagues. That said, the story here is that not many people who are casual fans of the game are familiar with the name. Bottom Line: Look for Wheaton's ADP to *exist* in a few weeks, but be sure to draft him in the late rounds for a value pick that could prove to be solid WR4 production. 

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Jay Cutler for MVP!  All the analysts appear to be drinking the Jay Cutty kool-aid, a fine flavor indeed.  It will be Jay's 2nd season with Marc Trestman and everybody in Chicago is chomping at the bit to see if he will continue to progress under Trestman's tutelage.  If Jay stays healthy he should be able to put up monster numbers with Jeffery and Marshall hauling in balls.
 
Jay isn't the only QB going into his 2nd season with their respective play caller.  
Phillip Rivers put up huge numbers in his first year with Head coach Mike McCoy and I would expect more of the same this season.  More familiarity will bring more success.  The Chargers finished the year out strong last season and were a team nobody wanted to see in the playoffs.  Keenan Allen was a candidate for rookie of the year with the numbers he put up last year.  Usually first year wide-outs struggle and don't really come on until their 2nd season which should get Chargers fans very excited about Allen and the team's offense.
 
These last three guys I will mention are ones that I think you can get after the top guys are taken.  Ben Roethlisberger had a consistent year last season and will benefit from a healthy Bell at the start of the season.  Eli Manning will bounce back from a down season under new offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, a guy brought in for the sole purpose of improving Eli. This last guy I stumbled upon while researching last season's fantasy points for this article.  I couldn't believe it but Andy Dalton was the #4 QB in one of my leagues behind Manning, Brees and Newton.  This guy does not pass the eye test and wets the bed every post season, but with all the weapons he has in Cincinnati he should continue to produce in the regular season.
 
 
 

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The NFL draft is almost upon us again, and in case you haven’t noticed over the past couple years, some players selected this weekend are sure to make an impact on fantasy football immediately. It wouldn’t make much sense to project how guys are going to do in year one without knowing the situation they’re walking into, but it doesn’t hurt to familiarize yourself with the players. With that in mind, here comes a list of guys to know for this weekend’s NFL draft with a brief overview of the obvious names as well as a few potential sleepers and busts:

 

QUARTERBACKS

The obvious guys (In the order I would want them):

 

  1. Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville

  2. Derek Carr, Fresno State

  3. Johnny Manziel, Texas A & M

  4. Blake Bortles, UCF

 

I’m not worried about Bridgewater’s swooning draft stock and poor Pro Day showing. He’s the most cerebral QB in this class, has the best anticipation skills of the group, and has phenomenal accuracy on intermediate throws. His quick-decision making will keep him safe in the pocket, and his arm strength is good enough to make all the throws, even if he doesn’t have a cannon. For me, Teddy is clearly number 1 in the class.

 

Johnny Manziel and Blake Bortles are considered the top two QBs in mock drafts right now, but I’m not sold on either guy. Manziel’s improvisational skills are unlikely to translate to the NFL the way most scouts hope. He’ll have to learn to throw from the pocket to have a lengthy career as a starter. If he doesn’t, he might be another Tim Tebow. Bortles has all the skills you want from a quarterback, but you have to sift through a lot of film to find them all. His prototype size and cannon arm make scouts drool, but his inconsistency will be maddening.

 

Derek Carr seems unlikely to be a first round pick, but he could really surprise at the next level. He was given full control of the offense at Fresno, and it was a very productive group. He throws a pretty deep ball, and has seen what to expect in the transition to the NFL at QB from watching his brother David. He’ll have to get used to lining up under center and operating a pro-style offense, but he has the tools to be a better QB than Manziel or Bortles.

 

Sleeper: Zach Mettenberger, LSU

Mettenberger’s stock has takena bit of a hit due to a flagged drug test and a degenerative back condition that have been discovered, but Mettenberger features the same requisite size and arm strength as Bortles, is close to him in terms of accuracy, and faced better competition at the college level. It makes him even more valuable that he can be picked a round or two later than Bortles as well. Honorable mention sleepers: Brett Smith, Wyoming & Tom Savage, Pitt

 

Bust: Logan Thomas, Virginia Tech

Thomas has the measurables that get scouts hot and bothered, but he never was able to put the pieces together at Va. Tech.  He’s got tight end size, good speed and a really strong arm, but his accuracy and mechanics have been a nightmare. His upside is as a bigger Jake Locker, but I see more Josh Freeman (2013 Josh Freeman). Honorable mention bust: A.J. McCarron, Alabama

 

RUNNING BACKS

The obvious guys:

 

  1. Bishop Sankey, Washington

  2. Carlos Hyde, Ohio State

  3. Tre Mason, Auburn

  4. Ka’Deem Carey, Arizona

  5. Jeremy Hill, LSU

  6. Lache Seastrunk, Baylor

  7. Devonta’ Freeman, Florida State

  8. Charles Sims, West Virginia

 

There likely won’t be a running back selected in round one, but there could be a few productive backs in this crop. It’s difficult to separate these guys, but what puts Sankey a cut above for me is that he has no glaring weaknesses and is a high character guy who was voted team captain at UW. He won’t dazzle you with his elusiveness, but he runs well in traffic, is a great receiver out of the backfield, and he has an extra gear to run away from defenders. He’s also relentless at the goal line, scoring 36 TDs in the last 2 years.

 

Carlos Hyde is an impressive power runner and always seems to fall forward, and it doesn’t hurt that he averaged over 7 yards per carry in the Big Ten. His question marks are character related, but he’s got the size and skill to play all 3 downs. Tre Mason came on strong down the stretch of the season, showcasing great agility and vision. He doesn’t dance around in the backfield, he lets the hole open up and he hits it. The only question mark about Mason is that he’s undersized.

 

Jeremy Hill and Ka’Deem Carey both are solid runners, but each has some character red flags. Carey’s got great vision and patience, and he’s fantastic as a receiver out of the backfield, but he’s best suited to a spread offense. Hill on the other hand is a violent downhill runner, but he lacks great balance and rarely if ever uses his second hand to cover the ball in traffic. He also struggles in pass protection, which will certainly keep him off the field on 3rd downs and perhaps make it hard for him to get on the field. Seastrunk is the most explosive runner on this list, but he really has struggled against good defenses. He needs to learn to get upfield more quickly and not go east and west so much. Freeman is undersized and played in a committee in college, which raises the question of how many carries he can handle at the NFL level, and Sims seems like a 3rd down back at best.

 

Sleepers: Terrance West, Towson & Storm Johnson, UCF

West is no sleeper to draft insiders or anyone who saw him play, but who watched a Towson game? West set the FCS single-season records last year with 2,519 yards and 41 rushing TDs. Granted those numbers came against FCS competition, but the skills are legit. Someone is going to give West a chance, and he’s got the talent to be productive at the NFL level. Storm Johnson had a solid year for UCF, but not one that made him a household name. He doesn’t have one defining skill that jumps out at you, but the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. His unimpressive 40 times at the combine might make him a great value in the draft since he’s quicker in pads than on a track. Honorable mention sleepers: Lorenzo Taliaferro, Coastal Carolina & Isaiah Crowell, Alabama State

 

Bust: Andre Williams, Boston College

Williams was extremely productive in his senior season, leading the FBS with 2,177 yards, but he runs too upright and provides nothing as a receiver. Literally, he had zero catches last year. He also takes a bit to get up to speed, which when coupled with his upright running will make him an easy tackle as he hits the hole. I expect him to struggle at the next level. Honorable mention bust: DeAnthony Thomas, Oregon

 

WIDE RECEIVERS

The obvious guys:

 

  1. Sammy Watkins, Clemson

  2. Mike Evans, Texas A&M

  3. Odell Beckham Jr., LSU

  4. Jordan Matthews, Vanderbilt

  5. Allen Robinson, Penn State

  6. Brandin Cooks, Oregon State

  7. Marquise Lee, USC

  8. Donte Moncrief, Ole Miss

  9. Davante Adams, Fresno State

 

Watkins is close to the consensus as the #1 receiver in the class, but he, Evans and Beckham are all grouped pretty closely together. Watkins has the upside of a true #1. He’s a game-changer. He runs great routes, has great hands, and is an absolute burner in the open field. He’s got a smallish frame, but plays tougher than his size. Evans has freakish size, and high-points the ball with the best of them. He’s great at tracking the deep ball, works his way back to the quarterback effectively on broken plays, and will be a nightmare to cover in the red zone. He does need to polish his route running, but he could make a fantasy impact quickly. Beckham is getting a lot of attention lately. The Jets and Eagles are both enamored with him and would like to move up to get him. His skill set compares to Victor Cruz and he could have a long career as a slot receiver who can make big things happen after the catch. His size does limit him to a slot role, but he can be a star if he lands in the right place.

 

Jordan Matthews might be the most underrated WR in this class. He lacks top-end speed, but he is way above average at every other aspect of the position. He’s going to be a very productive number 2 wideout for a long time, a la former Bronco Ed McCaffery. Allen Robinson has the physical tools to be a number 1 wide receiver at the next level, but he needs to clean up his route running if he wants to make that jump. He is physically overwhelming for a lot of DBs and he dominated at times against Big Ten competition. Brandin Cooks has blazing speed and piled up big numbers in a pass-happy OSU offense, but his small size will likely limit him to the slot and he may struggle against more physical corners. He has the upside to be a star (think Carolina Steve Smith), but he needs to find a way to get stronger without losing speed.

 

Marquise Lee had magnificent sophomore and junior years at USC, but saw a severe drop-off as a senior with Matt Barkley and Robert Woods gone to the NFL. Lee is a fluid route runner with good speed, but can be jammed at the line and has had some durability concerns in his career. He has big potential, but needs to find the right fit to realize it. Donte Moncrief might have the most upside of any receiver in this class. He wasn’t all that productive last season due to inconsistent QB play, but he also could have shown more toughness and fight for the 50/50 balls. If he can add that killer instinct, some scouts believe Moncrief can be Josh Gordon good.

 

Davante Adams has been extremely productive at Fresno State, but some of that is a result of Fresno’s uptempo system and Derek Carr’s reliance on Adams. Adams has very good hands and deceptive speed, but he doesn’t have great acceleration to get separation quickly and hasn’t had a chance to show what he can do against top competition. He could smoothly transition into the NFL, or he could become a career depth guy if he isn’t as effective against NFL DBs as he was against those from the MWC.

 

Sleepers: Cody Latimer, Indiana & Robert Herron, Wyoming

Latimer isn’t exactly a sleeper. He topped 1,000 yards receiving in the Big Ten last year and has been shooting up draft boards for the past couple months. To me he projects as Jordan Matthews-lite. He doesn’t have blazing speed, but he’s got every other WR skill you need. There’s a pretty good chance he’s selected ahead of a few of the obvious names listed above, and will likely out-produce a few of them as well. Herron isn’t very well known, but he could be special. His size likely limits him to the slot, but he could be one of the 2 or 3 best slot receivers in this draft. He has surprising strength and toughness for a guy who stands 5-9, 195, and he also has elite speed. Honorable mention sleepers: Kain Colter, Northwestern & Dri Archer, Kent State

 

Bust: Kelvin Benjamin, Florida State

Scouts love Benjamin’s measurables. He’s even bigger than Mike Evans, but he isn’t nearly as polished a product. He could be a threat in the red zone, but his route running needs a lot of work, and he had several frustrating concentration drops. Kelvin could be solid if he puts in the work, but he also could be a complete bust. Honorable mention bust: Jared Abbrederis, Wisconsin

 

TIGHT ENDS

The obvious guys:

 

  1. Eric Ebron, North Carolina

  2. Jace Amaro, Texas Tech

  3. Austin Sefarian-Jenkins, Washington

 

This year’s tight end class has 3 potential fantasy stars, and they’re the guys listed above. Ebron has the most upside. He has the size of a tight end and runs like a receiver. He still needs some polish, specifically in his route running and blocking, but his size and athleticism remind scouts of Vernon Davis. Amaro is much more polished than Ebron, but he lacks Ebron’s speed. He’ll likely be more productive in year one, but Amaro’s upside is a little limited. He is a very natural pass catcher and a better blocker than Ebron. Amaro’s role in the NFL will be as a move tight end who does his best work lined up in the slot. Austin Sefarian-Jenkins is has some character concerns, but he is the most traditional tight end of the group. He’ll be a great working underneath and potentially in the red zone, and he’s a load to tackle after the catch. His immaturity could drive his team nuts, but he’s got the skills to be a phenom.

 

Sleeper: Joe Don Duncan, Dixie St.

Okay, part of the reason I mentioned this guy is because I love the redneck name, but Duncan has a chance to be another Joseph Fauria. Granted, Dixie State isn’t exactly facing top competition, but Duncan was a red zone killer, scoring 13 touchdowns in 10 games last year. He won’t step right in and dominate, but he could develop into a nice player. Honorable mention sleeper: Trey Burton, Florida

 

Bust: C. J. Fiedorowicz, Iowa

C.J. is commonly thought of as the number 4 tight end in this class, but he’s not a great receiving tight end. He won’t do you any good for fantasy purposes early on in his career. He might develop that part of his game later, sort of like a Heath Miller, but he walks in the door as purely a blocking tight end. Honorable mention bust: Xavier Grimble, Florida State

 

That’s all I’ve got for now. I’ll be back sometime after the players have landed on teams to talk about which ones you want on your fantasy team. Until then, enjoy the draft.

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