Fantasy football strategy, rankings, and podcasts

Are you looking for a vote of confidence when picking spreads, money lines and total points in NFL games? Let me be that football guru, number cruncher, couch doctor, virtuoso, wizard, svengali, professional or ace who has searched for and seen the prophecies of victory as well as having the ability to put your precarious and gambling souls at ease with my advice. Almost 20 years of sports wagering experience is proudly listed on the resume, as well as playing in my 22nd season of fantasy football(definitely a pioneer). In this weekly column, I'll offer up everything from winners, weekly spreads, point totals, moneyline moods and under/ overs, to nuggets of advice, betting strategies and game outlooks. Additionally, every week, I'll submit at least one of my tantalizing, high-odds, 'Nicks Picks', a parlay too good to be true. Remember, the most important rule is never gamble what you don't have... so be careful and good luck! 

See?! Aren’t you glad that you didn’t assemble a group of the wagering unfortunate from week 3 and burn down my house? If you followed my advice for week 4, you would have had a successful outing(I was 12-3 on the moneyline) and made back that lost scratch, plus a little ‘Black Friday’ spending cash. Okay, still too early to mention X-mas as now I’m sick of myself for bringing it up. Anyway, teams are starting to reveal their true identities at this part of the season and making picks and putting tickets together seems to get easier… well, for me anyway. This is why you listen to my gospel; because you have a chance to take from the gold plate on Sundays instead of always putting in. Remember, there will be a lot of soggy fields out there this weekend, so if you’re putting action on one or some of those games, the under/ over ends up being lower as well as passing/ receiving stats. Have fun and win some!

TEN(-233) -5.5 @ BUF(+205) +5.5 (O/U 39.5) – The Titans surging defense and the Bills’ lack of running makes this a no-brainer for the moneyline. Medium confidence(5-7) on the spread.

 BAL(-172) -3 @ CLE(+155) +3 (O/U 45.5) – The Ravens defense is real and were able to handle the Steelers’ firepower last week. The Browns are still a work in progress even though Baker Mayfield looks promising. I like the Ravens with the spread and moneyline.

DEN(-114) -1 @ NYJ(+102) +1 (O/U 42.5) – I have a feeling this game could be closer than a lot of people think. The Broncos are playing on shortened rest and traveling to the east coast for a noon game. I’m not touching it but if I was, I’d take Denver and the moneyline because the Jets are too inconsistent making big plays on offense.

GB(+103) +1 @ DET(-115) -1 (O/U 51) – Wow, another close one. The Packers’ receiving core is decimated and all aspects of Detroit’s game are on the rise. If you were to lay down some bacon on this one, I’d go with Green Bay and the moneyline because the Lions are the Lions and most importantly… Aaron Rodgers.

JAX(+135) +3 @ KC(-150) -3 (U/O 49) – The Chiefs will pull past the Jags in this barnburner. I’m definitely comfy taking KC and the moneyline, as well as them and the spread(maybe lower it by half a point if in a parlay) and the Over.

ATL(+152) +3 @ PIT(-169) -3 (U/O 58) – The Steelers and both moneyline and spread. Falcons defense is like a wet paper bag(Pittsburgh D not great but better than Atlanta’s) which will rip in the first half by the weight of all the first half touchdowns. I would grab the Over.

MIA(+217) +6 @ CIN(-247) -6 (U/O 48) – Even though I feel the Bengals are going to win this one, I’m only taking the moneyline because G. Bernard is out and Cincinnati will be working Mixon back in. If he has a set-back of some kind, there goes the running game. Luckily, Dalton and the aerial assault should get the win.

NYG(+226) +6.5 @ CAR(-257) -6.5 (O/U 43.5) – The Panthers are coming off a bye week and are well rested. The G-Men can’t find a rhythm to march in. I like Carolina with both the spread and moneyline.

OAK(+204) +5 @ LAC(-232) -5 (O/U 52.5) – The Raiders’ defense is sub-par and I don’t think they can stop Melvin Gordon and the other weapons that Philip Rivers has in his gun belt. I’m definitely taking the moneyline and most likely will put some action on the spread. LA’s secondary has been exploited without Joey Bosa playing at the line, so I feel confident with the Over on this one.

LAR(-314) -7.5 @ SEA(+272) +7.5 (U/O 50) – It’s the Rams. Drink the Kool-Aid and take both the spread and moneyline. I don’t like the U/O because this is a division game.

ARI(+146) +3.5 @ SF(-163) -3.5 (U/O 40.5) – Another game I am not fond of but am leaning towards the Niners and the moneyline. I also think the Over is a fair bet.

MIN(+152) +3 @ PHI(-169) -3 (U/O 47) – This is my upset of the week. I am taking the Vikings with both the spread and moneyline all day in this one. Eagles have a great run defense but have been struggling against the pass. Definitely stay away from the U/O.

DAL(+147) +3.5 @ HOU(-3.5) -3.5 (U/O 45.5) – This is a game I want no part of... banged up players, shaky defenses, etc. I’m not even considering the notion that it exists and will be played. If I had to pick any kind action, it would be the Texans and the moneyline.

WAS(+225) +6 @ NOS(-256) -6 (U/O 52.5) – I’ll be taking the Saints on both the line and spread, with a side of Over. Lots of offense, little defense in this one. Lots of points.

NICK’S PICKS to CLICK for Week 5:

3 TEAM PARLAY (BAL -3) – (KC -3) – (PIT -169 ml)

3 TEAM PARLAY (MIN +3) – (LAR -7.5) – (NOS -256 ml)

Are you looking for a vote of confidence when picking spreads, money lines and total points in NFL games? Let me be that football guru, number cruncher, couch doctor, virtuoso, wizard, svengali, professional or ace who has searched for and seen the prophecies of victory as well as having the ability to put your precarious and gambling souls at ease with my advice. Almost 20 years of sports wagering experience is proudly listed on the resume, as well as playing in my 22nd season of fantasy football(definitely a pioneer). In this weekly column, I'll offer up everything from winners, weekly spreads, point totals, moneyline moods and under/ overs, to nuggets of advice, betting strategies and game outlooks. Additionally, every week, I'll submit at least one of my tantalizing, high-odds, 'Nicks Picks', a parlay too good to be true. Remember, the most important rule is never gamble what you don't have... so be careful and good luck! 

Okay, save the torches and pitchforks for another time. Some of my picks might have been way off for week 3, but come on, these were major UPSETS that most of the wagering world lost their asses on. However, if you would have listened to the rationale segment before the picks, you would of remembered me saying I don’t wager on the first two weeks of the season and ease into week three with the cash flow. So don't worry Johnny, better weeks are ahead!

PHI(-188) -3.5 @ TEN(+167) +3.5 (O/U 41.5) – Take Philly and the moneyline as this could be a field goal game. O/U should be harder than figuring out the new QB protection rule, but if you need to have a piece, get a small slice of the Under.

HOU(+112) +1.5 @ IND(-125) -1.5 (O/U 47) – The Texans are starting to click and they are underdogs in this one. A favorable spread and moneyline, so take Houston all day long. Go with the Under.

DET(+132) +3 @ DAL(-147) -3 (O/U 43.5) – The Lions are another team finding it’s rhythm and should eek out a road win in Dallas as underdogs. I like Detroit all day with both moneyline and spread, but wouldn’t touch the O/U.

TB(+142) +3 @ CHI(-159) -3 (O/U 46.5) – Chicago’s beastly defense will be too much for Tampa Bay. Even if the the Bear’s offense is mediocre at best so far this season, they should put up enough to win. I do think it could be decided by a field goal or less, so go with the moneyline and avoid the spread. I’d hide from the O/U as well.

CIN(+175) +4 @ ATL(-197) -4 (O/U 53) – Another road team, another underdog. Even though Atlanta will be at home, I believe their sham of a defense and lack of a solid running attack, will give the Bengals a legitimate shot… especially on the fast turf with Green and Boyd running routes opposite of each other. Take Cincinnati and the points. I’m being cautious with the moneyline as it could be a field goal or less in favor of the Falcons. Definitely get some action on the Over with the combination of two potent offenses.

MIA(+245) +7 @ NEP(-281) -7 (O/U 48) – The Patriots rarely lose multiple games in a row, especially when about to play at home. They also usually crush the Dolphins in Foxborough. Still, this being a division game, and Miami looking decent, I would avoid the spread and take New England and the moneyline. Stay far away from the O/U.

NYJ(+314) +7.5 @ JAX(-366) -7.5 (O/U 38.5) – I believe the Jaguars will pull out a close win, but too close to put action on any aspect of this contest due to the numbers given. The spread is too high in Jax’s favor and the moneyline is off the charts. The O/U seems about exactly right on, so why bother?

BUF(+325) +9.5 @ GBP(-380) – 9.5 (O/U 45) – After last week’s road win in Minnesota, I will not take the spread in this one until I find out a little more about the Bills. I am confident Green Bay will win at home. However, the moneyline should only be taken if you have the capital… and/ or the cajones.

SEA(-171) -3 @ ARI(+153) +3 (O/U 39) – I’m comfy taking the Seahawks with the line, spread and grabbing the under.

CLE(+133) +3 @ OAK(-148) -3 (O/U 45) – Only take the Browns and the spread if you add at least a half point. Don’t go crazy on a rookie QB’s first start, especially on the road in a notoriously hostile stadium. I’m thinking Cleveland could pull this off, just tread lightly. Anyway, the O/U is ugly, so this game has little, big money appeal.

NOS(-175) -3.5 @ NYG(+157) +3.5 (O/U 50) – Safely take the Saints on both the line and points. Shaky defenses on both ends make this a friendly Over.

SF(+378) +10.5 @ LAC(-450) -10.5 (O/U 46.5) – This is the strongest play of the week. The spread is fair in the Chargers’ favor, especially with the beating they’ll give the Niners. Without Jimmy G, San Fran will be no better than ‘okay’. The spread is reasonable and Los Angeles will probably put up at least forty-five points themselves, so go make yourself some scratch on the Over.

BAL(+142) +3 @ PIT(-158) -3 (O/U 51) – A close, divisional game, I am skipping the spread but taking the Steelers and the moneyline. I could see the Over happening, but wouldn’t put too much of the whisky fund on it.

KC(-204) -4.5 @ DEN(+181) +3 (O/U 55) – It would be fair to say that even though the Broncos have a formidable defense, they probably don’t have the offense to keep up with the Chiefs. I’m digging KC with the line and the points. Another safe Over.

Here are a few Nick’s Picks to click for week 4:

3 TEAM PARLAY (DET +3.0) – (K.C. -4.5) – (NOS -178 ml)

2 TEAM PARLAY (SEA -3.0) – (CIN +197 ml)

Are you looking for a vote of confidence when picking spreads, money lines and total points in NFL games? Let me be that football guru, number cruncher, couch doctor, virtuoso, wizard, svengali, professional or ace who has searched for and seen the prophecies of victory as well as having the ability to put your precarious and gambling souls at ease with my advice. Almost 20 years of sports wagering experience is proudly listed on the resume, as well as playing in my 22nd season of fantasy football(definitely a pioneer). In this weekly column, I'll offer up everything from winners, weekly spreads, point totals, moneyline moods and under/ overs, to nuggets of advice, betting strategies and game outlooks. Additionally, every week, I'll submit at least one of my tantalizing, high-odds, 'Nicks Picks', a parlay too good to be true. Remember, the most important rule is never gamble what you don't have... so be careful and good luck! 

Hey everybody, welcome to the first installment of 2018's 'Nick's Picks'. If you were looking for the column in weeks one and two, I didn't write one. As I have mentioned the last few seasons, the first two weeks are too difficult to grade talent and make legitimate wagers. This rule also applies to Thursday night games during the whole season, as the shortened rest and time to game plan can throw off the dynamic of a game in a major way. This week also looks a little difficult as far as deciding on matchups, so I am going to ease into the season by being very picky and frugal. Again, you don't have to win big every week... pick your spots.

Green Bay Packers(-140) 33 @ Washington Redskins(+125) 16 --- GB -2.5 --- Over 45 --- The Packers are a safe play this week, money line and spread. If they are going to tie the powerhouse Vikings with a hobbled Aaron Rodgers, then I just can't, and won't believe the Redskins will stop him. The only way Washington gets a win is if they take Rodgers out of the game some how.

New Orleans Saints(+115) 30 @ Atlanta Falcons(-128) 24 --- NO +2 --- Over 53 --- I'm taking the Saints this week as an underdog in a game where I feel the offense will really hit their stride. I'm not sure which defense will show up for New Orleans, but it can't be worse than the ones in the first two weeks of the season.

Oakland Raiders (+135) 20 @ Miami Dolphins(-150) 34 --- MIA -3 --- Over 44.5 --- Haven't seen anything from the Raiders yet to make me think they can even beat a middle rate team like the Dolphins. A comfortable moneyline.

Cincinnati Bengals(+136) 23 @ Carolina Panthers(-152) 26 --- CAR -2.5(I dropped it 0.5 pts. from -3) --- Over 44.5 --- I believe this will be one of the closest contests of the week and am treading lightly. I don't dig the moneyline for this close of a bump and grind.

Denver Broncos(+214) 16 @ Baltimore Ravens(-243) 23 --- BAL -5.5(I dropped it 0.5 pts. from -6.0) --- Under 46.5 --- Another close game, as I am not a true believer in either of these teams to win on a consistent basis. Both teams have talent but can't put it all together. Even though I have the Ravens to cover the spread, I'd stay away from putting the farm on the unfavorable moneyline.

New York Giants(+215) 13 @ Houston Texans(-245) 30 --- HOU -6.0 --- Over 43.5 --- The Giants suck and Houston is better. Unless New York can get Odell involved and protect Eli, it doesn't matter if they drafted the best rookie RB of the last decade. Moneyline isn't too bad for a victory this decisive.

San Francisco 49ers(+242) 30 @ Kansas City Chiefs(-115) 44 --- KCC -6.0 --- Over 54.5 --- Most likely one of the highest scoring games of the week, go ahead and take the over on this contest with confidence. Even though both teams will be scoring like crackheads on customer appreciation night, I still think the Chiefs will put it off by at least a touchdown. Safe moneyline for the home team, even though the riches aren't there.

Indianapolis Colts(+248) 19 @ Philadelphia Eagles(-284) 27 --- PHI -7.0 --- Over 46.0 --- Carson Wentz's first game back will have doubters, but he is still an upgrade from Nick Foles. The Eagles should be fine, especially against the Colts, who are still getting their groove back with Andrew Luck. The moneyline is safe with that Philly Defense having it's greenbacks.

Buffalo Bills(+851) 9 @ Minnesota Vikings(-1351) 51 --- MIN -16.5 --- Over 41.0 --- Let's see, this is the biggest blowout of the week, maybe the season, so definitely take the spread as the Vikings will at least win by 17 points. They will also score at least 41 points by themselves so grab the over. Finally, even though that moneyline is huge for Minnesota, this is one of those games where it pays to be a big spender.

Los Angeles Chargers(+266) 20 @ Los Angeles Rams(-306) 37 --- LAR -7.5 --- Over 48.5 --- I would say the Chargers defense would make this a closer contest, but the lack of presence from Joey Bosa will continue to be a factor. Philip Rivers and company have the firepower to put away most teams by staying ahead of them, but the Rams are not most teams. Gurley and Goff will definitely lay down the hurt. Safe enough moneyline, spread and over.

Chicago Bears(-232) 27 @ Arizona Cardinals(+204) 6 --- CHI -5.5 --- Under 39.0 --- This is a gravy game. The Cardinals will be lucky to score a field goal per half, so take the Bears in every conceivable wagering category.

Dallas Cowboys(+111) 20 @ Seattle Seahawks(-124) 27 --- SEA -2.0 --- Over 40.5 --- A game which can give you nightmares because both teams are confusing to pin down. Safely take the numbers given, but l'd look for games with less risk.

New England Patriots(-289) 34 @ Detroit Lions(+252) 23 --- NEP -6.5(I dropped it 0.5 pts. from -7.0) --- Over 54 --- The Patriots should not have a problem pulling this one off and judging by how they rarely lose back to back games, the moneyline is a safe bet and good value.

Pittsburgh Steelers(-104) 34 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers(-106) 31 --- PIT -1.0 --- Over 54 --- A very close game in which I think the Steelers will win due to them rarely going winless for three straight contests. The safest play on this one is the over.

Nick's Picks of the week: 

3 game parlay --- GBP -2.5 --- HOU -6.0 --- KCC -6.0

3 game parlay --- PHI -7.0 --- MIN -16.5 --- LAR -7.5

2 game parlay --- CHI -5.5 --- NEP -7.0

Are you looking for a vote of confidence when picking spreads, money lines and the under/ over in the NFL? Let me be that football wizard who has seen the prophecies of victory and has the ability to put your precarious souls at ease. Almost 20 years of sports wagering experience is proudly listed on the resume, as well as playing in my 21st season of fantasy football(definitely a self-proclaimed pioneer). But enough about this guy. In this weekly column, I'll offer up anything from sportsbook's outcomes, moods and reflections, as well as offer words of advice and knowledge on betting strategies. Additionally, for every game, I'll have my picks for the spread, moneyline and under/ over ready to go. And if you're good(or I just happen to be feeling generous), I'll offer up one of my tantalizing, high-odds 'Nicks Picks', a ticket too good to be true. Anyway, if for some reason any of Nick's Picks let you down, I'm cool with you telling your bookie it was all my fault. Yeah... right.

'THE THINNING' - Yes, akin to the movie bearing a similar name, the last few weeks to wager on the NFL regular season will be just as creepy as a winter-bound descent into madness. Teams fighting for a wildcard spot, others dueling for division and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Then, there are those left without hopes(and mathematical possibilities) of making the postseason. These include: teams that give up, the ones that love to play spoiler and of course, the squads that have been impossible to predict on a weekly basis all season long. I take almost the same caution with these last few games of the year as I do the first 2-3 contests on the regular season calendar, before identities are made and trust can be warranted. Basically, there is a smaller pool of quality games to choose from when deciding on where to put your action. Sure, a lot of the teams in the league have an identity that can be counted on, due to it being this late in the season. But it's the attitude of the teams, not their talent, which makes me more cautious when deciding on my picks this close to the playoffs. A lot of games this late are simply not worth the risk, due to the invisible odds on deciphering current, on-field collective attitudes. 

NOTE: I HAVE ALTERED THE POINT VALUES ON VARIOUS SPREADS TO INCREASE ODDS OF WINNING CERTAIN GAMES. OBVIOUSLY, THE PAYOUT WILL BE LESS THAN CHOOSING  THE POINTS A SPORTSBOOK PROVIDES. THOSE CHANGED BY ME WILL BE LISTED IN BRACKETS.

NICK'S PICK OF THE WEEK: 3 GAME PARLAY | CAR -2.5 | LAR (+3.5) | PIT (+3.5)

DENVER BRONCOS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS - IND (+3.5) | IND -110 | UNDER 45.5

CHICAGO BEARS @ DETROIT LIONS - DET -5 | DET -220 | OVER 44

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS - LAC -1 | LAC -110 | OVER 46

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ NEW YORK GIANTS - PHI (-6.5) | PHI -318 | UNDER 40.5

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS - BAL (-6.5) | BAL -303 | UNDER 40.5

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS - CAR -2.5 | CAR -140 | OVER 47

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ BUFFALO BILLS - MIA +3.5 | MIA +151 | OVER 39

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS - WAS -4.5 | WAS -214 | UNDER 42

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS - MIN (-9.5) | MIN -532 | OVER 42

HOUSTON TEXANS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS - JAX -11.5 | JAX -562 | OVER 39

NEW YORK JETS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS - NOS -16 | NOS -1136 | OVER 47.5

LOS ANGELES RAMS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS - LAR (+3.5) | LAR +121 | OVER 47.5

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS - PIT (+3.5) | PIT +131 | OVER 54

TENNESSEE TITANS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ers - SF -1 | SF -118 | UNDER 45

DALLAS COWBOYS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS - DAL (-2.5) | DAL -156 | OVER 46

ATLANTA FALCONS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS - ATL -6 | ATL -242 | UNDER 49

LAST WEEK'S RESULTS:

SPREAD                8-8

MONEYLINE          7-9

TOTAL O/U           11-5

YTD RESULTS:

SPREAD               111-87

MONEYLINE         126-72

TOTAL O/U           104-94