Shawn Foss
I'm a college and professional sports nut from the Chicago area. Follow me on Twitter @Shawn_Foss
October
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! I hope you managed to avoid any landmines in your lineups last week and didn’t run into anyone starting Aaron Rodgers, Marvin Jones or Chase Edmonds. It was a wild week 7, probably the most unpredictable week of the season so far. A number of players who seemed to be in prime matchups to set the world on fire last week fell flat instead – Kyler Murray, Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz. Daniel Jones, David Johnson, Phillip Lindsay, Devin Singletary, Larry Fitzgerald, Kenny Golladay, Michael Gallup, Zach Ertz, Evan Engram. It was a messy week to be sure, but it’s a good time for an important etiquette reminder:
If you’re upset about the performance of a player on your fantasy team, don’t go to their social media pages to let them know about it. The players and coaches do not and should not care about your fantasy teams. The players don’t owe you anything if they have a poor fantasy day. They get paid to help their team win, not yours. If their performance cost their own team a win, I assure you they feel worse about it than you do. There is no reason to rub that in.
With that PSA out of the way, let’s take a look at what to expect from the rookies in week 8…
Rookies to Start:
RB Josh Jacobs, OAK (Wk. 8: @Hou.): Keep a close eye on the injury report with Jacobs. Head coach Jon Gruden claims that he is truly ‘questionable’ for this week’s game with a shoulder injury despite returning to the game last week after suffering it. If he does play, he should be in your lineups unless you have multiple studs ahead of him. Jacobs is the RB12 on the year in terms of points per game and has at least 79 rushing yards in all but one contest. This matchup isn’t an ideal one. The Texans allow the 8th-fewest RB points per game on the year and rank 5th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat, but the Raiders’ commitment to getting Jacobs the football should make him a fine RB2 again this week if he’s able to suit up.
WR Terry McLaurin, WAS (Wk. 8: @Min.): There was a time when Xavier Rhodes was a corner to be feared, but so far this year that hasn’t been the case. Rhodes has graded as just the 88th-best corner in the league according to Pro Football Focus and the Vikings have given up the 10th-most wide receiver points per game. They have been carved up by several perimeter receivers so far: Davante Adams (7-106), Allen Robinson (7-77), Darius Slayton (4-62-1), Alshon Jeffrey (10-76-1), and Marvin Jones (10-93-4). Fire up McLaurin this week as a WR2 and completely wipe the monsoon game last weekend from your memory.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Kyler Murray, ARI (Wk. 8: @NO): Coming off his worst passing game of the season, Murray gets to face a red-hot Saints defense that has held opposing QBs to just 13 fantasy points per game over the past 4 weeks. That would rank as the 5th-best mark in the league if it were over the whole season. The Saints did show some vulnerability against running QBs early in the year, giving up rushing lines of 4-40-1 to Deshaun Watson and 7-51-2 to Russell Wilson. The Cardinals have an implied total just below 20 points this week, so Vegas doesn’t see a ton of upside for their offense as a whole. If I have a solid QB1 on my roster I’d probably be starting them over Murray this week.
QB Gardner Minshew, JAX (Wk. 8: vs. NYJ): Aside from a forgettable performance in week 6 against the Saints, Minshew has been a dependable QB2 every week with at least 16 points in every other game. This week’s matchup probably limits his upside a bit. There are 9 teams that average giving up more fantasy points to the QB than the Jets allowed in their worst outing of the year. Despite the matchup Gardner should be fine as a QB2 once again this week. The Jets rank just 17th in pass defense DVOA despite how well they’ve limited QBs, so they aren’t likely to completely shut the mustachioed gunslinger down. With every solid outing he moves closer to keeping the job when Nick Foles returns.
RB David Montgomery, CHI (Wk. 8: vs. LAC): I’m sure if you got burned by Montgomery last week you’re unlikely to go back to that well again, but he was more of a victim of a poor game plan than his own poor performance. His first career fumble didn’t help him any, but he didn’t get his first carry of the game until the second half. That’s inexcusable for Matt Nagy and he knows it, saying after the game “I know we have to run the ball more. I’m not an idiot.” As comical as that quote is, it convinces me the Bears are going to get the ball to Monty much earlier and much more often this week. The Chargers are a porous run defense. They rank 24th in run defense DVOA and have allowed 5 of the 7 lead backs they’ve faced to top 15 fantasy points (half PPR scoring). As we’ve seen this year Montgomery is never a sure thing, but I like his chances of posting a solid fantasy game this week.
RB Ty Johnson, DET (Wk. 8: vs. NYG): With Kerryon Johnson hitting injured reserve this week, Ty Johnson became the biggest priority waiver claim of the week. The Lions did sign Paul Perkins and could still bring in another runner (possibly CJ Anderson who opened the year with the team), but with just Johnson and JD McKissic available last week Johnson out-snapped JD 49-19 and out-touched him 14-7. It appears Johnson will be the lead back of the committee in the immediate future, and this week he faces a Giants team that has allowed the 5th-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. The Lions are a touchdown favorite, so they should be able to keep running. Johnson has RB2 upside this week in a great matchup. Keep on eye on team updates and make sure Perkins won’t have a bigger role than expected before pulling the trigger on Johnson.
WR DK Metcalf, SEA (Wk. 8: @Atl.): Metcalf has lived on the borderline this season. He’s made several big plays but limited overall volume for Seattle’s passing attack has prevented DK from becoming a weekly fantasy starter. Metcalf has finished in the top 30 receivers in PPR scoring 3 times this year but has not finished in the top 24 yet. Could this be the week? It’s definitely possible. The Falcons have been among the worst defenses in the league. They rank 31st in pass defense DVOA and have coughed up the 5th-most wide receiver points per game. They’re also tied for the 3rd-most pass plays of 20+ yards allowed, which plays into Metcalf’s strengths as a deep threat. The upside is there, but his limited volume and 50% catch rate on the year will continue to cap his ceiling for the time being. He’s worth WR3 consideration this week.
WR Diontae Johnson, PIT (Wk. 8: vs. Mia.): The return of Mason Rudolph and a matchup with the sad sack Dolphins make Johnson a reasonable streamer this week if you’re looking for a fill-in wide receiver. Johnson and Juju Smith-Schuster have the same 21.3% target share with Rudolph at QB and the Dolphins have allowed 11 WR touchdowns in just 6 games. They’ve also given up the 9th-most WR points per game and rank dead last in pass defense DVOA. The points allowed would be even worse if they weren’t frequently getting blown out. Johnson probably shouldn’t be that much behind Juju in the WR rankings this week.
TE TJ Hockenson, DET (Wk. 8: vs. NYG): The volume and overall production hasn’t exactly been there for Hockenson so far outside of week 1, and this looks like a tough matchup on paper, but I feel good about Hockenson’s chances of getting in the end zone in this one. The Giants have allowed the 5th-fewest TE points per game on the year, but they’ve faced just about the least impressive lineup of tight ends imaginable so far. After giving up two scores to the Cowboys’ tight ends in week 1, they’ve faced off with Dawson Knox, OJ Howard, Jeremy Sprinkle, Kyle Rudolph, Ryan Izzo and Charles Clay. They gave up 3-66 to Howard, his best fantasy game of the year. Marvin Jones’ 4-TD outburst last week should draw more attention his way in the red zone, and the Lions have an implied total of more than 28 points and don’t have Kerryon to give the ball to at the goal line. We’ve seen the floor isn’t high for TJ, but the TE position is bad when you get outside the top 8 or so options. He’s worth streamer consideration this week.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Daniel Jones, NYG (Wk. 8: @Det.): I’ve expected good things from Jones a couple of times recently, and he hasn’t delivered since his sensational debut against the Bucs. In 4 games since, we’ve seen lackluster performances in good matchups and bad, and in situations where his weapons were healthy and where they weren’t healthy. The Lions are typically a defense to target with QBs, allowing multiple scores in 4 of 6 games and 280+ yards passing in 5 of 6, but Jones hasn’t reached even 13 fantasy points since his debut. I wouldn’t count on everything suddenly clicking this week and would look elsewhere even for a QB2.
RB Devin Singletary, BUF (Wk. 8: vs. Phi.): I wouldn’t be thrilled to take my chances with Singletary this week. The Eagles have been a dominant run defense for much of the year. Ezekiel Elliott broke through against them on Sunday night for a big game, but he was the first starting running back all year to average 3 yards per carry or better against Philly. They also haven’t allowed a single receiving score to an opposing back this year. There is a potential path to a decent game for Singletary. The Eagles have let two change of pace RB2s have success against them (Ito Smith 4-32, and Alexander Mattison 14-63), and they have allowed 4 different backs to post 6+ catches in just 7 games. If the Bills fall behind Singletary would be in line for a healthy receiving line. For what it’s worth, the Bills are a point and a half favorite in this game. I’d be inclined to think of Singletary as closer to borderline in PPR formats, and more of a guy to bench in non-PPR.
RB Miles Sanders, PHI (Wk. 8: @Buf.): On the other side of the Bills-Eagles tilt, Sanders has just 9 rushing attempts and 6 targets in the past 2 games. He’s clearly taken a back seat to Jordan Howard in the running game and Howard gets all the carries in close, so Sanders needs to make his biggest impact in the passing game. Thus far the Bills have only allowed 1 running back to reach 40 receiving yards (James White), and haven’t allowed a single RB receiving score. A long touchdown would give you the production you’re hoping for from Miles, but I would be looking for a safer bet for my lineups.
WR Jakobi Meyers, NE (Wk. 8: vs. Cle.): Despite Josh Gordon getting placed on injured reserve, it was not a good week for Meyers’ rest-of-season outlook. The Pats have traded for Mohamed Sanu and designated N’Keal Harry to return from IR. Harry can’t return until week 9 at the earliest, but Sanu can suit up this week. It’s hard to say what the WR rotation will look like this week. Sanu muddies things up enough that it’s tough to trust Meyers in any lineups. He has played well enough to earn more opportunity, catching all 9 of his targets over the past 2 weeks for 101 yards. I’m just not sure the playing time will continue to be there for him. He played just 51% of the offensive snaps last week without Sanu on the roster.
WR Mecole Hardman, KC (Wk. 8: vs. GB): Tyreek Hill was back to being a full-time player in week 7, and Hardman saw his lowest snap share of the season as a result. He also lost his starting QB for the time being which will cap the entire offense’s upside for the immediate future. Even if Sammy Watkins sits again, Hardman is no more than a big play dart throw with Matt Moore at QB.
WR Darius Slayton, NYG (Wk. 8: @Det.): Slayton saw his targets drop dramatically with the Giants’ other primary weapons back. Slayton still worked as a full-time player, but with Engram and Saquon back in the lineup he was targeted just twice despite Daniel Jones throwing 35 times. The Lions are just a middling defense against wide receivers, but Slayton will be competing for scraps with Bennie Fowler and Cody Latimer after Tate, Engram and Barkley get theirs.
WR Deebo Samuel, SF (Wk. 8: vs. Car.): Samuel’s status for this week is still up in the air, but his status in your lineup shouldn’t be. Dante Pettis has led the WR group in snaps in each of the last 3 weeks, and the Manny Sanders trade should push Samuel down to fighting for snaps with Marquise Goodwin and Kendrick Bourne each week. He’s droppable in most season-long leagues. Sanders likely won’t need much ramp up time to learn the offense in San Francisco since his OC in Denver had spent 3 of the past 4 years coaching on Kyle Shanahan’s staff.
WRs Keelan Doss & Hunter Renfrow, OAK (Wk. 8: @Hou.): Renfrow is an easy call to sit since he still hasn’t topped 4 catches and 30 yards in a game this year. Doss had a nice day Sunday with Tyrell Williams ailing, posting a 3-54 line on just 29 offensive snaps. The matchup this week is decent with Houston allowing the 4th-most WR points per game, but Tyrell is fully expected to return this week and there just isn’t enough volume to go around after Tyrell and Waller to trust any other Raiders’ pass catcher in fantasy.
WRs KeeSean Johnson & Andy Isabella, ARI (Wk. 8: @NO): Isabella collected his first 2 catches of the year last Sunday, but he and Johnson combined for just 15 snaps and Christian Kirk wasn’t even active. Kirk may return this week, but the rookie duo has given way to Damiere Byrd and Trent Sherfield for the time being. There isn’t any reason to look at them for your lineups even against a Saints team that allows the 7th-most WR points per game.
WR Parris Campbell, IND (Wk. 8: vs. Den.): It sounds like Campbell may return this week from an abdominal injury, but he just hasn’t done enough so far this year to warrant consideration. He faces a Denver defense that has allowed the 7th-fewest WR points per game, and Campbell has totaled just 10 catches on 13 targets through 5 games played and averages just 6.2 yards per catch. I need to see more from him before I consider him in lineups.
TE Irv Smith Jr, MIN (Wk. 8: vs. Was.): With Adam Thielen sidelined this week, the Vikings will have to look elsewhere in the passing game. Smith is coming off his best game as a pro with season-highs of 41 snaps, 5 catches and 60 yards. The absence of Thielen could result in an uptick in targets for Irv this week, but Washington has kept tight ends in check for the most part. They haven’t let any tight end reach 60 yards this season and they’ve faced Zach Ertz, Evan Engram and George Kittle. There is another Viking rookie pass catcher that I would be more inclined to look to this week. You can read more about him in the Sleeper section below. I’d look for other streaming options if considering Smith this week.
TE Noah Fant, DEN (Wk. 8: @Ind.): Fant gets a favorable matchup this week against a Colts’ defense that has allowed the 6th-most tight end points per game, but he just hasn’t been productive enough to trust in lineups at this point. He’s reached 8 PPR points just once all year and has just 4 catches for 29 yards in the last 3 games combined. There are some positives for Fant. He set a season-high with 5 targets last week and could see increased opportunity with Emmanuel Sanders out of the picture, but that’s not enough for me to justify using him even in a seemingly good matchup. The Colts have allowed 4 tight ends to top 50 receiving yards this year, and all 4 were quality players (Kelce, Waller, Hooper and Hunter Henry).
TE Dawson Knox, BUF (Wk. 8: vs. Phi.): The Eagles are allowing just 41 receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends, and if you throw out Vernon Davis’s ridiculous hurdling touchdown from week 1 that number drops below 35 yards per game. Knox has seen his targets slowly go up as the season has gone on, but over his past two games he’s turned a total of 10 targets into just 4 catches for 34 yards. This is unlikely to be the week he gets it going again.
TE Foster Moreau, OAK (Wk. 8: @Hou.): Moreau continues to get a decent amount of playing time but will also continue to be a low upside option as long as Darren Waller is around. He’s been targeted 11 times in the last 3 games and turned them into 9-100-2 over that span. He’d need another touchdown this week to return value and the Texans have only allowed one to the tight end position on the season. Houston also has allowed the 7th-fewest fantasy points per game to the position.
TE Josh Oliver, JAX (Wk. 8: vs. NYJ): Despite injuries to Geoff Swaim and James O’Shaughnessy in recent weeks, Oliver still served as the TE3 for the Jaguars last week behind Seth DeValve and Ben Koyack. He was not targeted in 25 snaps, and this week faces a defense that has allowed the 5th-fewest tight end points per game. There is no reason to expect production from the San Jose State product this week.
Rookies on byes in week 8: RB Justice Hill, BAL, RB Tony Pollard, DAL, WR Marquise Brown, BAL, WR Miles Boykin, BAL
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
RB Darrell Henderson, LAR (Wk. 8: vs. Cin.): Malcolm Brown will be sidelined again this week, and the Rams are a 13-point favorite against the hapless Bengals, who allow the most RB fantasy points per game. Todd Gurley should still work as the lead back, but Henderson will likely wind up in the 12-15 touch range if the game goes as expected. Against Cincinnati that’s enough work to put a running back firmly on the flex radar. He’s a great upside option now that Brown has been officially ruled out.
RB Benny Snell, PIT (Wk. 8: vs. Mia.): The Steelers will be without Jaylen Samuels in this one, and they are a heavy favorite against the league-worst Dolphins. James Conner should get plenty of work early, but the Pittsburgh RB2 role has averaged more than 13 touches per game over the last 3. Some of that is skewed by Conner’s injury against the Chargers, but I can’t imagine the Steelers won’t turn to Snell once they get control of the game. Snell impressed ahead of the team’s bye with 75 yards on 17 carries against the Bolts. The Dolphins rank dead last in the NFL in run defense DVOA and give up the 2nd-most RB points per game. Snell could be in play as a flex option for deeper leagues.
RB Alexander Mattison, MIN (Wk. 8: vs. Was.): Week 7 was the first time all season that Mattison was held below 49 yards in a Minnesota win, but he’s still had at least 7 carries in each. This week is the easiest to predict win for the Vikings that they’ll have had thus far (assuming they get it). Minnesota is favored by more than 2 touchdowns, so there is a great chance at a runaway victory. That means extended run for Mattison. Washington is a below average run defense, ranking 18th in run defense DVOA. Mattison is best used in deeper non-PPR leagues since he’ll give you nothing in the passing game, but he’s a good bet for 50+ yards and a possible garbage time score this week.
WR AJ Brown, TEN (Wk. 8: vs. TB): For at least one week, Ryan Tannehill seemed to be just what the doctor ordered to fix the Titans’ broken passing game. Corey Davis was the biggest beneficiary of the change but Brown set season-highs with 8 targets and 6 catches. This week he faces a Tampa defense that has allowed 5 different wide receivers to reach 20 fantasy points (half-PPR) in the past 4 games. We’ve already seen Brown be a DFS week winner when he went 3-94-2 in week 4 against Atlanta. The Bucs give up more WR points per game than Atlanta does. At just $4,100 in DraftKings this is another good week to take a shot on Brown in GPP tournaments.
WR Olabisi Johnson, MIN (Wk. 8: vs. Was.): The Vikings are without Adam Thielen on Thursday night, so Johnson should slot in as the Vikings’ number 2 wide receiver. Washington has been bad against WRs overall, allowing the 9th-most points per game to the position, but oddly they rank 1st in pass defense DVOA on throws to the opposing number 1 wide receiver and dead last in DVOA on throws to the number 2 receiver. The Vikings have a healthy implied total of 29 points, and Johnson was targeted 8 times last week. I like him if you’re scouring the waiver wire for a fill in WR in deep leagues. He’ll have to produce his points before the Vikes put the game out of reach, but that hasn’t been a problem for most teams against Washington.
WR Preston Williams, MIA (Wk. 8: @Pit.): Williams posted a surprisingly strong performance last week against the stingy Bills secondary, posting 6-82 on 8 targets. He did lose a fumble, but this was the 4th time in 6 games that Williams has either found the end zone or topped 60 yards. It was nice to see him perform well with Fitzpatrick at QB. DeVante Parker has been visiting the end zone more frequently than Williams with touchdowns in 3 straight, but that may just mean Williams is due for one. The Steelers are a decent pass defense, ranking 10th in pass defense DVOA, but they are just a middling defense when it comes to limiting WR points (18th most WR points allowed). Williams is an option in the deepest of leagues and as a DFS dart throw.
WR Scotty Miller, TB (Wk. 8: @Ten.): A lot of folks may have forgotten about Miller since Tampa was on a bye last week, but against Carolina in London Miller played 60% of the Bucs’ offensive snaps and was targeted 7 times. He isn’t a guy I would roll out in lineups this week against a Titans team that allows the 6th-fewest WR points per game, but he is worth stashing in deeper leagues in case that usage continues. He could eventually be the Adam Humphries replacement the Tampa offense has been missing. At the bare minimum cost on DraftKings, there is an argument to be made for him in GPP tournaments. The Titans don’t give up a ton of WR points, but they rank just 23rd in pass defense DVOA.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with the tougher lineup decisions you have involving the rookies. Keep an eye on the injury report throughout the week to make sure there are no big changes that affect your fantasy team. If you want to yell at me about anything written above or have any specific questions, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
October
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’re nearing the midway point of the fantasy regular season, and we’re starting to get a better idea of which surprising performances have been just a hiccup or flash in the pan, and which are trends with staying power. Last week went mostly as expected for the rookie crop.
Terry McLaurin and Kyler Murray continued their standout rookie seasons, Miles Sanders was relegated to mainly passing down work (although he did find some success there), Daniel Jones fell flat in a really tough matchup, and DK Metcalf, Darius Slayton, Benny Snell and Jakobi Meyers all found their way to respectable performances. Snell was especially impressive posting 75 yards on 17 carries and another 14 on 1 reception. With James Conner banged up with a quad injury, Snell is a running back worth targeting in next week’s waivers (or to scoop up off the free agent heap this week if he’s still out there due to the Steelers’ bye).
Another rookie who is on a bye this week to take note of is WR Scotty Miller of the Bucs. With Breshad Perriman sidelined and a negative game script Miller played 60% of the offensive snaps and was targeted 7 times in London. Some folks will forget about him through the Bucs bye this week. Keep him in mind in deep PPR leagues (especially dynasty). This week should be a more productive one for the rookie RBs with Montgomery, Jacobs, and Singletary back on the field, but there are plenty more rookies to talk about in week 7. Let’s dive in…
Rookies to Start:
QB Kyler Murray, ARI (Wk. 7: @NYG): Kyler posted his best fantasy game yet in week 6 against the hapless Falcons’ defense, and he gets another substandard unit this week. The Giants are allowing the 5th-most QB points per game. They’ve coughed up more than 300 passing yards 4 times in 6 games and have given up multiple TDs in 5 of them (including rushing scores). Murray ranks as the QB7 for the year in terms of points per game, and he’s run for 221 yards in the past 4 weeks. He’s a locked-in QB1 this week and should be a top-5 option at the position if Christian Kirk returns to the field.
RB Josh Jacobs, OAK (Wk. 7: @GB): The Packers did a pretty good job of containing Kerryon Johnson on the ground on Monday night, but most of his attempts came after the Lions had put Green Bay in a hole and their run-heavy play calling became obvious to predict. On the season, The Packers rank just 26th in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat and have allowed the 4th-most fantasy points per game to the position. Jacobs is the RB15 on the season in PPR points per game. The Raiders have been committed to the run and have managed to get Jacobs to 79+ rushing yards in 4 of 5 contests. I like the chances that he makes it 5 of 6 here as the Raiders try to work the run game to keep Aaron Rodgers off the field.
WR Marquise Brown, BAL (Wk. 7: @Sea.): If Brown plays this week, he should probably play for you. He’s seen at least 5 targets in every game he’s been active. The Seahawks have a middling secondary that ranks 15th in pass defense DVOA, but they allow the 8th-most passing yards per game in the league and this is the 2nd time all year the Ravens will be underdogs. The last time they were an underdog Brown was targeted 9 times against the Chiefs. His production didn’t really measure up to his usage in that game, but KC’s secondary has been better than expected this year. If any team knows what it takes to keep Lamar Jackson contained in the pocket and keep him throwing rather than running, it’s the one that practices against Russell Wilson every day. I expect Hollywood to post his best performance since week 2 if he’s able to play. His status is genuinely up in the air as of Wednesday, so monitor injury reports if you’re considering him.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Daniel Jones, NYG (Wk. 7: vs. Ari.): Jones was predictably harassed into his worst game of the year against New England last Thursday. He was held to season-lows in rushing yards, completion percentage, passing yards, and completions, and threw a season-high 3 picks. On a positive note, he did become the first QB to throw a touchdown against the Patriots this year. Things get a lot easier this week. The Cardinals rank just 29th in pass defense DVOA and have allowed opposing signal-callers to post an outlandish 121 passer rating. They’ve allowed at least 240 passing yards in every contest and given up multiple TDs in 5 of 6. Jones may be down Sterling Shepard this week but should have Saquon Barkley and Evan Engram back. The return of Patrick Peterson from suspension should improve the entire defense for Arizona, but it will likely take a week for him to shake off the rust of 6 weeks of missed action and he still won’t be a cure-all once he does. Jones should be a high-end QB2 at worst this week.
QB Gardner Minshew, JAX (Wk. 7: @Cin.): The Bengals have ceded the 4th-most QB points per game to opposing passers, but they’ve somehow limited them to just 1.3 passing scores per game. The place they’ve really been burned by quarterbacks is on the ground (Josh Allen 9-46, Kyler Murray 10-93-1, Lamar Jackson 19-152-1). Minshew can run a little himself, but I wouldn’t expect a gaudy output like those other QBs have posted. I expect him to bounce-back this week to a degree against a bad Bengals’ defense. The Bengals are expected to be without both of their starting corners, so Minshew should have a safe floor as a mid-level QB2 despite likely having limited volume again.
RB Devin Singletary, BUF (Wk. 7: vs. Mia.): Singletary gets the ultimate plus matchup in his likely return to action this week. The Bills enter the week as a whopping 17-point favorite and only Cincy allows more running back points per game than the Dolphins. The Bills might not want to give Singletary a full workload in his return so I would expect Gore to still see a good amount of early down work, but Yeldon should be pushed to the bench. This is a matchup that is good enough to have 2 fantasy relevant runners come out of it, so Singletary is very much in play as a low-end RB2/flex option.
RB David Montgomery, CHI (Wk. 7: vs. NO): Montgomery’s volume took a hit in week 5 in London as the Bears trailed by multiple scores for most of the 2nd and 3rd quarters, but I wouldn’t expect them to get ambushed like that again with an extra week to prepare for the Saints and Alvin Kamara truly questionable to play. He should be back up to 15+ carries and a few targets like we were used to, but the Saints have been a stingy defense since Teddy Bridgewater took over at QB. They allow the 7th-fewest RB points per game and rank 5th in run defense DVOA. This isn’t exactly a smash spot for Monty, but his volume should get him on the RB2 map this week.
RB Miles Sanders, PHI (Wk. 7: @Dal.): Sanders demonstrated last week why it’s hard to just write him off even when he is phased out of the running game. Head coach Doug Pederson stayed true to his word and gave a bigger share of the carries to Jordan Howard, limiting Sanders to his lowest snap share and lowest number of touches of the season. He managed to salvage a reasonable fantasy week despite this, pulling in 3 catches for 86 yards and a score on just 3 targets. The bigger concern here is that he only got those 3 targets. The Eagles were behind all game and Sanders was operating as the primary receiving back with Darren Sproles out. You’d have expected the ball to come his way a bit more. He’s a dicey flex option this week even if Sproles is out again. You’d be hard-pressed to expect Sanders to duplicate last week’s output if his usage is the same, and the Cowboys have only allowed 2 running backs to reach 40 receiving yards on the year.
WR Terry McLaurin, WAS (Wk. 7: vs. SF): If you have McLaurin, you are probably starting him. I just wanted to list him as a ‘Borderline’ option to emphasize that this is a really tough matchup for him. The 49ers rank 1st in pass defense DVOA and have allowed a league-low 10 pass plays of 20+ yards thus far. McLaurin thrives on the deep ball, ranking 2nd in the NFL with 124 air yards per week. He’s clearly cemented himself as the #1 wide receiver in DC, but this week he is more of an upside WR3 than the locked in WR1/2 he’s played like.
WR DK Metcalf, SEA (Wk. 7: vs. Bal.): Metcalf’s targets have been inconsistent this year (31 targets in 6 games), but he’s managed to top 60 yards in 4 of 6 contests this season. He may be squaring off with Marcus Peters this week after the Ravens traded for him from the Rams. Peters has had a reputation as a playmaker who can get burned due to his aggressive style, but so far this year Pro Football Focus has graded him as a top-10 corner in the league. Metcalf may still see a good number of targets come his way with Will Dissly suffering an achilles injury and Tyler Lockett drawing shadow coverage from Marlon Humphrey. He’s an interesting option in DFS tournaments on the off chance that Peters reverts to his burnable ways, and is in play as a WR3 due to the likely bump in volume.
TE TJ Hockenson, DET (Wk. 7: vs. Min.): Hockenson gets the borderline treatment this week because of how ugly things get at the end of the TE1 list, especially in a week with Greg Olsen, Vance McDonald, and OJ Howard on byes (ok, OJ hasn’t really been helpful). It’s hard to picture Hockenson having a big week against a Viking defense that has made tight ends work for their points this year, but TJ’s 6 red zone targets in his past 3 games means he’s got as good a shot as any Lions’ pass catcher of finding the end zone. The Vikings have allowed 5 different tight ends to top 40 yards and all 5 of them had at least 8 targets to get there. Only 2 of them (Darren Waller and Austin Hooper) cleared 55 yards, and none of them got in the end zone. Hockenson doesn’t see the same kind of volume as the guys that the Vikings have been facing. He’s averaged 5 targets per game and hasn’t had more than 6 in a game since week 1. I wouldn’t expect him to post a big day, but the shot at a TD keeps him in play.
Rookies to Sit:
RB Alexander Mattison, MIN (Wk. 7: @Det.): Mattison set season-highs in carries (14) and yards (63), and once again most of it came in garbage time with the game decided. He also lost a fumble which could ding his playing time in the near future. Game script continues to be the biggest factor in his fantasy performances, but until he starts getting more opportunities to catch passes or get the ball at the goal line, he’s going to be a low-upside option. This week’s game in Detroit has just a 1-point spread in the Vikings’ favor. If they wind up playing from ahead, Mattison probably finds his way to 50+ scoreless, catchless yards again. If not, he probably won’t make much of an impact.
RB Justice Hill, BAL (Wk. 7: @Sea.): Hill’s time is eventually going to come, but for now it’s at least encouraging that he hasn’t been completely erased from the game plan. The 17 snaps he played in week 6 was the most he’s seen since week 1, and he managed to tally 35 rushing yards. He remains a guy to keep stashed in deeper leagues. If something were to happen to Ingram or Gus Edwards, he could be a league-winner in this offense.
RB Tony Pollard, DAL (Wk. 7: vs. Phi.): Pollard continued to be an afterthought in week 6 with the Cowboys trailing all game. They’re just a 3-point favorite this week in what should be a close game with Philly. Pollard has been on the field for just 15 snaps in the last 3 weeks, and I don’t expect a big jump there unless the Cowboys pull away.
WR Mecole Hardman, KC (Wk. 7: @Den.): Mecole saw just 4 targets against Houston with Tyreek Hill back on Sunday, and he was the receiver who saw his snaps take the biggest hit from the return, playing the lowest snap % he has all year. The Broncos rank 7th in pass defense DVOA and allow the fewest points per game to opposing WRs. 50 yards would be a positive outcome for Hardman even with Sammy Watkins ruled out again. There is always the threat of a homerun play with Mecole, but the chances he makes good on that threat are greatly reduced with Hill back.
WR Deebo Samuel, SF (Wk. 7: @Was.): The 49ers have been the run-heaviest team in the league so far, throwing on just 43% of their offensive plays, and their pass distribution has been wildly inconsistent from week to week. Samuel is second on the team in targets, and he averages just 4.4 per game. He also entered the week with a questionable tag due to an injury suffered Sunday. The 49ers enter week 7 as a 10-point road favorite against Washington. I don’t expect there to be enough of a passing game to support more than one or two fantasy relevant pass-catchers, and if there is a guy beyond George Kittle that comes through this week, it will most likely be Dante Pettis, who is starting to look more like the guy we expected him to be.
WR AJ Brown, TEN (Wk. 7: vs. LAC): There’s been a changing of the guard at QB in the Music City and hopefully it will jump start the Titans’ offense. This week they face the struggling Chargers. The Chargers rank just 27th in pass defense DVOA, but they have been especially vulnerable against WR1s. They’ve allowed 4 different WR1s to reach 17 PPR points against them in 6 games (TY Hilton, Golladay, DeVante Parker and Courtland Sutton). Kenny Stills is the only non-WR1 to reach 70 yards against them. Corey Davis is the most likely receiver to benefit from the matchup this week. The Titans’ first plan of attack is always the run game, and they should have success against a Charger defense that is coughing up 120 rushing yards per game. That should keep the passing volume low and make Brown no more than a dart throw in deep leagues and DFS tournaments.
WR Preston Williams, MIA (Wk. 7: @Buf.): The Dolphins’ offense is projected to get wiped out this week. Vegas gives them a ridiculously low implied total of just 11.5 points, and the Bills have been excellent against opposing WRs. They’ve allowed the 3rd-fewest PPR points per game to the position. Only 4 receivers have reached 50 yards against them, and only 2 have reached 70. Williams has had a better connection with Josh Rosen than newly re-appointed starter Ryan Fitzpatrick. I wouldn’t count on Preston to post much more than 30-40 yards in this one.
WR KeeSean Johnson, ARI (Wk. 7: @NYG): Johnson has had opportunity this year, but thus far the snaps and targets just aren’t turning into fantasy points. He’s seen 21 targets and 1 rushing attempt in the last 5 weeks, and he’s posted just 21.2 PPR points in that time. Christian Kirk will likely return this week, limiting Johnson’s opportunity even further. There just isn’t a lot of reason to roll him out there at this point, even in a matchup against the defense that allows the 5th-most WR PPR points per game.
WR Hunter Renfrow, OAK (Wk. 7: @GB): The potential absence of Tyrell Williams at least makes Renfrow someone you could consider if you were in a pinch in a deep PPR league this week, but I don’t like this spot for him. Green Bay ranks 5th in pass defense DVOA this season, and although they’ve shown some vulnerability against the pass lately it’s been perimeter receivers who have hurt them. They’ve allowed 3 outside WRs to top 100 yards in the last 2 weeks (Golladay, Gallup, Amari Cooper). Renfrow should see a handful of targets, especially if the Raiders play from behind, but I wouldn’t count on him turning them into much. He’s yet to top 30 yards this season.
WR Miles Boykin, BAL (Wk. 7: @Sea.): With Hollywood Brown out last week Boykin played 56% of the offensive snaps (less than only Willie Snead among the WRs), but he only managed to post 2 catches for 28 yards on 3 targets. The Ravens continue to be a run-first offense, and when they do throw the passing game gets funneled to Mark Andrews and Brown. Even with Brown out, Andrews was the only player to be targeted more than 5 times and received 24% of the team’s total targets. There would be some upside for Boykin as a cheap DFS option this week if Hollywood were to sit again. The Seahawks have been just a middling pass defense and Baltimore would likely have to throw more than they did last week, but we haven’t seen enough of a ceiling yet to trust Boykin in season-long formats.
WR Parris Campbell, IND (Wk. 7: vs. Hou.): Campbell is listed as doubtful for this week, but if by some miracle he does manage to play he’s managed to top 6 PPR points just once in 4 games (8.2 in week 2).
TE Noah Fant, DEN (Wk. 7: vs. KC): Fant’s role in the offense has been secure, but his fantasy production has had a low ceiling thus far. On paper the Chiefs look like a favorable matchup for a tight end. They’ve allowed the 4th-most catches and 4th-most yards to the position. The problem is that few tight ends have really posted big days on their own. The Jaguars’ tight ends went 8-59 against them, but it was split between Geoff Swaim and James O’Shaughnessy. The Raiders posted 9-96, but it was split between Waller and Derek Carrier. In all, the Chiefs have allowed 11 tight ends to record 3+ catches against them in just 6 games. Only 3 of them made it to 50 receiving yards, and only one of them found the end zone. Fant will likely need a touchdown to return value this week, and that’s something the Chiefs haven’t been surrendering to tight ends.
TE Foster Moreau, OAK (Wk. 7: @GB): Moreau has seen his snap count increase for 4 games in a row, but not because Darren Waller is playing any less. Moreau set his season highs in London with 4 catches for 46 yards. The Packers are unlikely to let him reach those numbers again this week. Green Bay has allowed the 6th-fewest TE PPR points per game, and Zach Ertz is the only tight end they’ve allowed to total more than 4 catches and 40 yards all year.
Rookies on Byes this week: QB Devlin Hodges, PIT, RB Benny Snell, PIT, RB Reggie Bonnafon, CAR, WR Diontae Johnson, PIT, WR Scotty Miller, TB, TE Zach Gentry, PIT
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
QB Drew Lock, DEN (Wk. 7: vs. KC): Obviously Lock isn’t a guy that has any relevance this week. He’s currently on IR, but it’s possible he could be activated as early as week 8. There are rumors afoot this week that if Denver loses on Thursday, they may look at trading Emmanuel Sanders. It would only be a matter of time before they hand the QB job over to the heir apparent if this becomes a lost season. He’ll have some young weapons even if they trade Manny – Courtland Sutton, Noah Fant, Phillip Lindsay, Royce Freeman, DaeSean Hamilton. If you are in a 2-QB league with slim waiver pickings, it might make some sense to stash Lock a little early in hopes he takes the job sooner than later.
RB Darrell Henderson, LAR (Wk. 7: @Atl.): Henderson FINALLY got a chance to play a little bit last Sunday with Todd Gurley sidelined, and he did not disappoint. It wasn’t all perfect – he did fumble a pitch at one point, but the skill he showed on his very first rushing attempt was tantalizing. He played just 17 snaps but managed to turn 7 touches into 48 scrimmage yards. I think he did enough to warrant more playing time going forward if Gurley is sidelined again, but it might be even better than that for Darrell. Malcolm Brown is questionable for this week as well with an ankle injury. There is a chance that Henderson is the lead back against a Falcons’ defense that has given up 7 TDs to running backs in 6 weeks. They had been limiting backs in the passing game prior to week 6, but Chase Edmonds and David Johnson combined for 101 receiving yards and 2 scores Sunday. Gurley has been trending towards playing, but if Gurley and Brown both sit, Henderson is an RB2 this week. If Gurley plays and Brown doesn’t, I’d still expect a decent amount of Henderson. Grab him if he is still on waivers in your league.
WR Jakobi Meyers, NE (Wk. 7: @NYJ): Meyers was solid on Thursday night filling in for the injured Phillip Dorsett, posting 4-54 on 4 targets. I’d be surprised if Dorsett returns this week, but Josh Gordon also came away with an injury in Thursday night’s game. It’s possible that Meyers will be playing as the WR2 against the Jets. New York has allowed the 12th-most WR PPR points per game this year and let all 3 of New England’s wide receivers (Dorsett, Gordon, and Julian Edelman) catch for more than 50 yards in the first meeting between the teams in week 3. If Gordon and Dorsett both sit, I’d expect Meyers to duplicate his output from last week with the upside for more.
WR Darius Slayton, NYG (Wk. 7: vs. Ari.): Patrick Peterson’s return will make the Cardinals a tougher matchup overall, but they have coughed up the 4th-most WR PPR points per game. P-squared won’t suddenly change that overnight, and he’s unlikely to spend a lot of time matched up with Slayton. Slayton has shown a nice rapport with rookie QB Daniel Jones. The returns of Engram and Barkley will put a damper on his upside, but Sterling Shepard is likely to sit which will keep Slayton on the field. He played 98% of the offensive snaps last week and saw 8 targets. He wasn’t overly productive with those targets, but he goes from a brutal matchup to a very favorable one and he’s getting high-value targets as well, averaging just over 18 air yards per pass attempt in his direction. Slayton is an interesting DFS tournament play at a very reasonable price ($4,100 on DraftKings).
WR N’Keal Harry, NE (Wk. 7: @NYJ): While Jakobi Meyers has been doing a nice job filling in for the banged-up Pats’ wide receivers, their 1st round pick N’Keal Harry has been getting closer to returning. He is set to start practicing this week, and once that happens the Pats will have 3 weeks to move him to the active roster. If Harry plays like the guy that the Pats thought they were drafting, he could move ahead of Meyers and Dorsett on the depth chart once he’s activated. It’s probably a little premature to scoop him off the waiver wire this week in most formats but keep an eye on the practice reports and monitor where the Patriots are at with him. This is a high-scoring offense, so if Harry has a role he will likely have some late-season fantasy relevance.
TE Dawson Knox, BUF (Wk. 7: vs. Mia.): The only thing keeping me from making Knox a borderline TE1 option this week is the pending return of Tyler Kroft, who seems likely to play. We don’t know what kind of split the Bills will employ with their tight ends, but every offensive player has a shot a good day when your team plays the Dolphins. Miami has allowed the 12th-most PPR points per game to opposing TEs, and Knox has averaged 4 targets and 39 yards per game over the past 4 games. It’s ugly out there when you’re searching for a fill-in TE, and Knox does have the upside for a solid game.
TE Josh Oliver, JAX (Wk. 7: @Cin.): The Bengals boast one of the worst pass defenses in the league, and after Geoff Swaim went down with a probable concussion last weekend the Jaguars were down to just Seth DeValve at tight end. The Jaguars play with multiple tight ends on nearly 40% of their offensive snaps and the Bengals have given up lines of 3-67-1 to Dawson Knox and 6-99 to Mark Andrews. Oliver is no more than a dart throw for a TD this week, but if he doesn’t miss this game with injury he should be on the field a decent amount. If he misses, DeValve becomes an interesting minimum-priced DFS option.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest lineup decisions involving rookies. Keep a close watch on the injury report this week to make sure of the status of anyone who can affect your lineup, even if it’s not the guy in your lineup. For example, Jakobi Meyers loses some of his appeal if Josh Gordon and/or Phillip Dorsett are good to go. If you have any specific questions or just want to yell at me about any of the info included above, feel free to hit me up on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
October
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! We’re another week deeper into the season and finally starting to get into the bye weeks where things can get a little dicey for your squads if you don’t have great depth. I wouldn’t expect to find much running back help from the rookie crop this week with David Montgomery, Josh Jacobs and Devin Singletary all on byes. Jacobs did put on a show across the pond on Sunday though. Week 5 also saw Kyler Murray get his first win, saw DK Metcalf and Marquise Brown each get back in the end zone, and saw another outstanding performance from Gardner Minshew albeit in a loss. The rookie running backs might have a bleak outlook this week, but there are plenty of other rookies to talk about. Let’s talk about what we can look forward to in week 6 from the rookie crop…
Rookies to Start:
QB Kyler Murray, ARI (Wk. 6: vs. Atl.): The Falcons’ defense has really struggled this year, especially since Keanu Neal went down late in the first half of their week 3 game. They rank 30th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA stat and in the last 3 weeks they’ve allowed 963 passing yards and a 10:0 TD to INT ratio. They also allowed Marcus Mariota and Deshaun Watson to combine for 69 rushing yards (nice) in the last 2 weeks. Murray has started to use his legs as an asset, racking up 189 yards and 2 scores on the ground in his last 3 games. He may also get Christian Kirk back this week. The TDs will eventually come for Kyler. The Cardinals are tied for 4th in the NFL with an average of 4 red zone trips per game. I expect Murray to be a top-8 QB this week.
WR Terry McLaurin, WAS (Wk. 6: @Mia.): Don’t be concerned about the coaching change in Washington when it comes to McLaurin. Offensive coordinator Bill Callahan is the guy taking over, so things shouldn’t change much. Former head coach Jay Gruden had a lot of control over the offense previously, so I would expect Callahan to put his own wrinkles in (most notably he’s talked about wanting to run more), but it should remain largely the same offense. The better news for McLaurin this week is that he should get Case Keenum back at QB. Keenum is much more willing to throw downfield than Colt McCoy. McLaurin also goes from facing the best defense in the league to one of the worst. Miami has been shredded by opposing WR1s so far, so McLaurin should be a safe WR3 in your lineups this week.
WR Marquise Brown, BAL (Wk. 6: vs. Cin.): Keep an eye on the injury report this week. Head coach John Harbaugh said Brown’s injury is nothing serious, but he isn’t practicing yet as of Thursday. If he does play and it sounds like he’ll be close to 100%, get him in your lineup. The Bengals rank 31st in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 3rd-highest yards per attempt in the league to opposing passing attacks. Baltimore has an implied total of 29.5 points, so there should be plenty of offense for them in this one. Other deep threat receivers have fared well against Cincy. DK Metcalf posted 4-89, Marquise Goodwin went 3-77-1, and they also allowed long scores to Diontae Johnson and Tyler Lockett this year. Brown shouldn’t be on your bench unless the injury keeps him there.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Gardner Minshew, JAX (Wk. 6: vs. NO): I keep telling you to sit Minshew each week, and he keeps responding by making me look foolish. He’s continued to turn what look like limited upside matchups into efficient and strong QB2 performances. This week he has a matchup that actually does have some upside for him. Naturally, he’s going to inevitably lay an egg in the week that he should blow up because fantasy football likes to laugh at us, but this looks like a spot where he is a reasonable bye week fill-in and a must-start in 2QB formats. The Saints rank 20th in pass defense DVOA and have allowed the 5th-most points per game to opposing QBs on the year. 4 of the 5 QBs they’ve faced topped 20 fantasy points. Minshew is an interesting option in DFS cash games this week that could allow you to spend your money on the other positions. He’s the 25th-highest priced QB on DraftKings ($5,000) but has yet to finish worse than the QB16 in any week this year.
WR Mecole Hardman, KC (Wk. 6: vs. Hou.): I’d lean toward starting Mecole this week if you’ve got him, especially if Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins both sit out. As of Wednesday, it sounds like Hill will be a game-time call, and Watkins is probably on the wrong side of questionable. Houston has allowed the 9th-most WR points per game on the year and the Chiefs have an implied total of 30 points. If Watkins and Hill both sit, 3-wide sets will consist of Hardman, Demarcus Robinson, and Byron Pringle. All 3 would have upside in this matchup, but I’d prefer Hardman over the other two. The return of Hill or Watkins would push him down to more of a WR4 this week.
WR Preston Williams, MIA (Wk. 6: vs. Was.): It feels awkward calling any Dolphin even as much as a borderline fantasy play, but Preston fits the bill this week. Washington has allowed the 3rd-most WR points per game, and Williams has been the target on nearly a quarter of Josh Rosen’s pass attempts this season. Rosen being named the starter for the remainder of the year is unquestionably a positive thing for Williams’ fantasy outlook. Preston has topped 10 PPR points in 3 out his 4 games this year, and he did that against tougher opponents than Washington. Williams is a reasonable WR3/flex option if you’re dealing with injuries or byes at the position this week.
WR DK Metcalf, SEA (Wk. 6: @Cle.): Metcalf’s deep ball upside keeps him in play as a WR3/flex option, but this might not be the best week for him. The Browns have had a conservative approach on the back end of the defense, taking away the deep ball and letting teams beat them underneath. They’ve allowed just 12 passes of 20+ yards though 5 games. It only takes one big play for Metcalf but be aware that he’s a volatile option.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Daniel Jones, NYG (Wk. 6: @NE): Jones posted his worst start of the year in week 5, and things look unlikely to get much better this week. Saquon Barkley, Evan Engram, Sterling Shepard and Wayne Gallman have all been ruled out already for Thursday night’s game and the Giants have an implied total below 14 points. The Patriots rank 2nd in pass defense DVOA and haven’t allowed at TD pass all year. They also have 11 interceptions through 5 games. This is the worst possible spot to start Jones.
QB Devlin Hodges, PIT (Wk. 6: @LAC): Hodges came into last Sunday’s game against the Ravens after an Earl Thomas hit knocked Mason Rudolph out cold, and he appears likely to get the starting nod this week. He didn’t look completely lost in his first NFL action, completing 7 of 9 passes for 68 yards and adding a 20-yard run, but there were some other incompletions (including an INT) that were negated by penalties. It would be a huge gamble to roll the dice on the undrafted rookie this week. The Chargers rank just 25th in pass defense DVOA, but only Deshaun Watson has reached 20 fantasy points against them. The Steelers are likely to go with as run-heavy a game plan as they can this week.
QB Dwayne Haskins, WAS (Wk. 6: @Mia.): Bill Callahan made it clear after taking over as the new head coach that he shares Jay Gruden’s outlook for Haskins: they don’t want him starting right now. Callahan said Haskins may be inactive some weeks with Keenum and McCoy both healthy. There is no reason to hold onto Haskins in redraft leagues right now.
RB Miles Sanders, PHI (Wk. 6: @Min.): Sanders is a really dicey flex option this week after comments from Doug Pederson that Jordan Howard will get more carries going forward. Howard has been a more decisive runner and has taken advantage of the Eagles’ mauling offensive line more effectively than Sanders has. The rookie may have a saving grace this week with Darren Sproles sidelined. It should be Sanders working as the primary receiving back this week (unless Corey Clement pops up). The problem is that Minnesota has allowed the 2nd-fewest RB receptions and receiving yards per game. I’d avoid playing Sanders this week unless you have to. Even if he still sees ok rushing volume, the Vikings rank 2nd in run defense DVOA.
RB Tony Pollard, DAL (Wk. 6: @NYJ): There is a chance that Pollard actually has a nice week at the Meadowlands. Pollard averaged 11 touches per game in the Cowboys’ 3 easy wins to open the year, and then played just 7 combined offensive snaps in the two losses since. The Cowboys are a touchdown favorite on Sunday, so Pollard may get involved late. The reason I list him as a ‘rookie to sit’ is because the Jets do have a decent run defense (11th in run defense DVOA) and I really don’t know what kind of league I would be desperate enough to play him in.
RB Alexander Mattison, MIN (Wk. 6: vs. Phi.): Mattison continued his trend of flashing in games with positive game script in week 5. He’s averaged 53 scrimmage yards per game in the Vikings’ 3 wins and just 19 yards in their 2 losses. Minnesota is a 3-point favorite this week, but I wouldn’t be looking for another 50-yard day out of Mattison. The Eagles have wiped out opposing running games, allowing less than 50 rushing yards per game to opposing backfields. Dalvin Cook might struggle to get to 50 yards on the ground in this one. I don’t expect there to be much left over for the rookie.
RB Justice Hill, BAL (Wk. 6: vs. Cin.): The matchup in week 6 is a juicy one for Baltimore’s backfield. The Bengals allow the 2nd-most RB points per game and rank 26th in run defense DVOA, but Hill has been an afterthought in this offense. He played the fewest snaps that he has all year in week 5. His DraftKings price tag is just $3,200, so you could roll the dice on him getting some extended run in a GPP tournament if you’re feeling feisty, but Gus Edwards is likely the biggest benefactor if the Ravens win in a rout.
RB Ryquell Armstead, JAX (Wk. 6: vs. NO): Armstead followed up a strong performance in week 4 with a disappearing act in week 5. He’s got 12 touches on the year, and 9 of them were in that week 4 contest. He’s no more than a Leonard Fournette handcuff at this point with next to no standalone value.
RB Dexter Williams, GB (Wk. 6: vs. Det.): Dexter seemed to have a prime opportunity to step up last weekend with Jamaal Williams sidelined. Instead the Packers activated Tra Carson from their practice squad and let him serve as the #2 back. Apparently, Dexter’s pass blocking isn’t where it needs to be for the Packers to trust him on the field. There isn’t any reason to have him rostered in redraft formats.
WR Diontae Johnson, PIT (Wk. 6: @LAC): Johnson has had a healthy target share for the Steelers since Big Ben went down and the Chargers are in the middle of the pack when it comes to points allowed to WRs, but Devlin Hodges at QB means I’m not willing to trust Diontae in lineups this week, even with James Washington sidelined. Johnson also needs to fix his ball control issues going forward. He’s fumbled twice in as many weeks, and his playing time will start to go down if that continues.
WR Miles Boykin, BAL (Wk. 6: vs. Cin.): Boykin gets a decent matchup against the Bengals this week. As I mentioned with Hollywood Brown earlier, they rank 31st in pass defense DVOA, and the Ravens have an implied team total of just under 30 points. Unfortunately for Boykin, he’s settled in as a guy playing right around 30% of the offensive snaps each week. That just isn’t enough playing time to trust him even in good matchups. This isn’t a bad week to hope he finds the end zone, but that’s really as much as you can hope for here unless Brown misses this game. If Brown is out, Boykin should get a little additional run but is still more of a dart throw than reliable option.
WR Andy Isabella, ARI (Wk. 6: vs. Atl.): Kliff Kingsbury stayed mostly true to his word last weekend and didn’t move Andy Isabella into the slot to replace Christian Kirk. Instead he used a rotation of Pharoh Cooper and his 2 tight ends (Maxx Williams & Charles Clay). Isabella did see a season-high 10 snaps, but he wasn’t targeted at all. He did get 2 rushing attempts. It sounds like Kirk will return this week, but even if he doesn’t, Isabella isn’t a guy to consider.
TE Irv Smith, MIN (Wk. 6: vs. Phi.): Smith played 51% of the Vikings’ offensive snaps last week…and wasn’t targeted even once. There will be weeks where the ball comes his way, but those weeks will be hard to predict in this low volume passing offense.
TE TJ Hockenson, DET (Wk. 6: @GB): The fact that the Lions had to come out after Hockenson’s concussion and say that he won’t be put on IR doesn’t make it sound like he’ll be back right away. Stunningly he was back at practice Wednesday & Thursday, but he is still in the concussion protocol. It seems like he’s trending in the right direction, but he could end up a game-time decision and the Packers have allowed the 6th-fewest tight end points per game this year. Since Hock plays on Monday, there really won’t be a way to have backup plan if Hockenson sits at the last minute. You’d basically be choosing between Jesse James and Robert Tonyan in that scenario (unless you have Jimmy Graham). I’d much rather just play someone else rather than wait on Hockenson in a tougher matchup.
Rookies on Byes: RB David Montgomery, CHI, RB Josh Jacobs, OAK, RB Devin Singletary, BUF, WR Hunter Renfrow, OAK, WR Parris Campbell, IND, TE Dawson Knox, BUF, TE Foster Moreau, OAK
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
RB Jon Hilliman, NYG (Wk. 6: @NE): With Gallman and Barkley ruled out, Hilliman is the default starting running back for the Giants this week. He doesn’t get an inviting matchup. The Patriots haven’t let any running back get into the end zone this year, and they allow the 2nd-fewest RB fantasy points per game and rank 3rd in run defense DVOA. With the game script expected to be very negative for the Giants, Hilliman will have to do work in the passing game to return a decent day. He did catch 36 passes in his last 2 college seasons despite not being a workhorse back, so he may not be a slouch as a receiver. I wouldn’t be too interested in him in redraft leagues, especially with Saquon looking like he’ll return next week, but a $3,200 price tag in DraftKings for a starting running back is at least intriguing in a GPP tournament.
RB Benny Snell, PIT (Wk. 6: @LAC): The Steelers only face one defense ranked higher than 23rd in run defense DVOA in their next 7 games, and Jaylen Samuels is out for a month. Samuels had been mixing in behind Conner a decent amount, and while Snell isn’t nearly as versatile as Jaylen, the Steelers are very likely to focus on running the football while Devlin Hodges is at QB. Snell should work as a change of pace back behind Conner for the coming weeks and is worth scooping up in deeper formats.
RB Reggie Bonnafon, CAR (Wk. 6: @TB): For some inexplicable reason Jordan Scarlett is the highest priced rookie running back on DraftKings this week ($4,300) despite playing just 5 offensive snaps on the season. Anyone paying attention knows Bonnafon is the handcuff back here. Bonnafon played 11 snaps last weekend when Christian McCaffrey was dealing with cramps and he turned in a 5-80-1 line. I don’t suggest using Bonnafon this week as the Bucs rank #1 in the league in run defense DVOA. Bonnafon is worth scooping up as insurance in deep leagues if you have CMC.
WR AJ Brown, TEN (Wk. 6: @Den.): Brown has been the epitome of boom or bust this season. He’s has more PPR points in each of his two ‘boom’ games than he does in the other 3 combined. Chris Harris Jr. is likely to shadow Corey Davis this week, which should benefit Brown. Other notable number one receivers who have faced the Broncos include Allen Robinson (4-41), Davante Adams (4-56), DJ Chark (4-44) and Keenan Allen (4-18). Number 2 receivers have fared better – Marquez Valdes-Scantling (6-99-1), Dede Westbrook (5-66) and Mike Williams (6-74). Brown is in play this week in deep leagues and in DFS tournaments.
WR Deebo Samuel, SF (Wk. 6: @LAR): The 49ers have had one of the toughest WR groups to figure out for fantasy purposes. None of them were useful on Monday night as they blew the doors off the Browns. No receiver had more than 4 targets. This week’s game projects as more of a shootout with an over/under of 50. The 49ers should be forced to throw a little more, and the Rams rank 24th in pass defense DVOA. San Francisco has tried to manufacture ways to get the ball into Deebo’s hands, so he’s the 49er receiver I’d be most likely to take a shot on having a big game this week.
WR KeeSean Johnson, ARI (Wk. 6: vs. Atl.): Johnson was basically a full-time player in week 5 with Christian Kirk out. Kirk might be out again this week, and Johnson was targeted 7 times in his absence on Sunday. The Falcons allow the 2nd-most WR points per game, so there is legitimate upside for KeeSean this week if Kirk sits again.
WR Jakobi Meyers, NE (Wk. 6: vs. NYG): With Phillip Dorsett sidelined, Meyers will step in as the full time WR3 for the time being. That didn’t result in much fantasy production last week, but he should be more of a factor moving forward. If Dorsett misses several weeks Meyers should be a decent add in deep leagues. He gets a decent matchup with the Giants this week who rank 29th in pass defense DVOA. He’s basically a dart throw this week in a game the Pats should run away with.
WR Darius Slayton, NYG (Wk. 6: @NE): Slayton doesn’t have a great matchup this week, but Daniel Jones will have to throw the ball somewhere and Slayton has been the guy he’s had the best connection with among the available options. He’s topped 11 PPR points in two of his last 3 games and costs just $100 more than the minimum on DraftKings. He has nice upside for a bottom of the barrel DFS tournament play, even in this brutal matchup.
TE Noah Fant, DEN (Wk. 6: vs. Ten.): Fant saw his lowest target total of the season last Sunday and was outscored by teammate Jeff Heuerman, but he remained right around the same snap share that he’s been playing (66%). The Broncos got an early lead and leaned on the run game against the Chargers. This week’s matchup is one to target with tight ends. The Titans have allowed a tight end score in 4 of 5 games this year and allowed a 9-130 line to Austin Hooper in the other game. Fant is a solid TD dart throw this week.
TE Josh Oliver, JAX (Wk. 6: vs. NO): I mention Oliver this week because the Jaguars’ starting tight end James O’Shaughnessy suffered a season-ending ACL tear this week. I wouldn’t be racing to the waiver wire to pick him up in any redraft formats, but he may be worth a flier in deep dynasty leagues, especially TE premium formats. Oliver was the team’s primary pass catcher as a senior at San Jose State last year, hauling in more than 21% of the team’s catches, and more than 22.5% of their receiving yards. Geoff Swaim and Seth DeValve are both likely ahead of Oliver on the depth chart, but Jacksonville has utilized 3 tight ends this season, and Oliver may be the best receiver of the healthy trio. DeValve had played at least 22% of the offensive snaps each of the past 3 weeks as the team’s TE3. DeValve hasn’t seen a single target this year, and Swaim has turned 15 targets into 12 catches for just 60 yards. Monitor how much Oliver is used this week. If he has an obvious passing game role, he should become a guy worth adding in redraft formats.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with your toughest decisions involving rookies this week. Keep a close eye on the injury report this week. There are a ton of injuries that could have an impact on these outlooks – Marquise Brown, Sammy Watkins, Tyreek Hill, Saquon Barkley, Christian Kirk, Phillip Dorsett, etc. Make sure you know what injuries may affect your lineup and have a backup plan ready for Sunday. As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
October
Welcome back to the Rookie Report! Week 4 was a rough one for me here at the Rookie Report, and it was a rough week to be a rookie in general unless your name is AJ Brown or Diontae Johnson. TJ Hockenson found the end zone, but also suffered a brutal concussion. Terry McLaurin was unable to play in a plum matchup. DK Metcalf, Hollywood Brown and Mecole Hardman had a brutal week as they COMBINED for just 37 yards – and Hardman lost a fumble as well. Miles Sanders got to watch firsthand as Jordan Howard put up a monster fantasy game and took the majority of the Eagles’ backfield production against a bad run defense, and David Montgomery finally got some serious volume but managed just 53 yards on 21 carries (2.52 ypc). As for the quarterbacks, Daniel Jones and Kyler Murray both had lackluster days, but Dwayne Haskins wouldn’t be outdone. Haskins was Nathan Peterman-esque in his debut, throwing 3 interceptions in just 17 attempts. Josh Jacobs and Gardner Minshew both posted respectable weeks, but the rest of the rookie pool was mostly a wasteland. Let’s talk about what to do with your rookies in week 5 and see who might bounce back…
Rookies to Start:
RB David Montgomery, CHI (Wk. 5: @Oak.): While the overall efficiency for Montgomery was frustrating last week, the volume is a great sign. Monty saw season highs in snaps, carries, and targets with Chase Daniel under center. It’ll be Daniel at the helm again in London, and the Bears are favored by 5 & a half points. The Raiders have been solid against the run so far this year, but they aren’t on par with the Vikings. A similar workload against a less formidable defense should lead Montgomery to a solid RB2 afternoon (or evening if you’re in London).
WR Marquise Brown, BAL (Wk. 5: @Pit.): Hollywood definitely failed to put on a show in week 4, but the targets were still there. He’s going to consistently see the football come his way, and the Steelers are not a pass defense to fear. They rank 19th in pass defense DVOA. Brown showed you what the floor looks like in week 4, but you’ll be kicking yourself if you leave him on the bench and he hits his ceiling.
Borderline Rookies:
QB Kyler Murray, ARI (Wk. 5: @Cin.): I like Kyler in this matchup, but I’m a little hesitant to give a full-throated endorsement here. Murray hasn’t exactly set the world on fire like I thought he would yet, and he’s likely to be missing his number 2 receiver Christian Kirk. The expected replacement is Pharoh Cooper. The matchup is a good one. Only Miami and the Cards themselves have allowed a higher passer rating to opposing QBs than the Bengals. Murray should be a safe QB2 option this week, and his QB1 ceiling remains intact in the plus matchup.
QB Daniel Jones, NYG (Wk. 5: vs. Min.): This isn’t the best spot for Jones as a potential streamer, but it’s also not quite as bad a spot for him as it could be. Jones’ dink-and-dunk style could work well against a Vikings’ defense that has allowed the 6th-highest completion percentage to opposing QBs, especially with the return of Golden Tate. 7 of the 8 offensive touchdowns Minnesota has given up have been through the air. Jones would be outside of my top-12 QBs for the week, but not by a lot.
RB Josh Jacobs, OAK (Wk. 5: vs. Chi.): The trip to London for Jacobs this week is unlikely to be a pleasant one. His volume keeps him on the flex radar, but this is still a bit of a committee situation for Jacobs. After coach Jon Gruden talked about wanting to get more targets for Jacobs during the week, the rookie RB was targeted just twice in the passing game. He also played just 54% of the snaps in a game that Oakland led for most of the day. Oakland is a 5.5-point underdog this week against the Bears, who rank 3rd in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA stat and have allowed fewer RB rushing yards per game than everyone except New England, Philly and Tampa. You can start Jacobs if you have to, but temper your expectations.
RB Miles Sanders, PHI (Wk. 5: vs. NYJ): It’s tough for me to endorse starting Sanders this week. He’s going to see enough volume to at least be in consideration for your flex spot, especially with the Eagles favored by two touchdowns, but the Jets have been stout against the run. Outside of 4 magical Devin Singletary carries in week 1, the Jets have allowed opposing backs to run for just 146 yards on 54 carries (2.7 ypc) despite facing Nick Chubb and Sony Michel in one-sided losses. The Jets have surrendered 3 rushing scores through 3 games, but after watching Thursday night’s game it’s hard to imagine the goal line carries would go to anyone but Jordan Howard. Sanders is going to need to break a long play or two to return solid value as a flex this week.
WR DK Metcalf, SEA (Wk. 5: @LAR): Metcalf posted just 1 catch for 6 yards last week, but the opportunity has still been there. He had 107 air yards worth of targets last weekend and was targeted in the end zone once and didn’t cash in. In fact, 40% of all of the Seahawks pass attempts into the end zone have targeted Metcalf so far. The opportunities will continue to be there this week and he matches up with a Rams defense that gave up 385 passing yards and 4 TDs to the Bucs Sunday. Metcalf is a boom-or-bust WR3 this week.
WR Mecole Hardman, KC (Wk. 5: vs. Ind.): Hardman had an abysmal game in Detroit last week, and while I’d like to see him get back on track at home against Indy, Patrick Mahomes hasn’t put up quite the same video game numbers in matchups against teams that play a lot of zone. In 5 games against teams that ranked in the top-10 in zone defense %, Mahomes topped 300 yards just once and threw for more than 2 TDs just twice (per Rotoworld’s Ian Hartitz). The upside is still there as it always is in this offense, but Hardman is probably on the wrong side of the borderline for me this week.
WR Terry McLaurin, WAS (Wk. 5: vs. NE): I can’t completely write off McLaurin this week since he’s had at least 5 catches for 60 yards and a TD in every game this year, but this is a week where I wouldn’t be very confident he gets to those numbers. The Patriots have been the league’s best defense this year. Sure it’s been aided by a schedule that included the Jets, Dolphins, and Bills already, but Washington still hasn’t decided who will be starting at QB this week. It could be a rough game for the entire offense. You can give McLaurin a try this week if you’re feeling spicy, but know that there is a low floor.
WR Diontae Johnson, PIT (Wk. 5: vs. Bal.): Johnson’s recent play with Mason Rudolph at quarterback has been solid enough to at least get him on the flex radar for now. Diontae has a 20% target share with Rudolph at the helm (just one fewer target than JuJu), and he’s found the end zone in back-to-back games. It was also a promising sign that the Steelers went right back to him after an early fumble. The concern for Johnson is that the Steelers have been a low volume passing offense that isn’t throwing the ball downfield. He was the recipient of a long TD pass on Monday night, but it was one of just 3 passes that Rudolph threw more than 10 yards downfield. The Ravens haven’t exactly been a shut down unit, ranking 25th in pass defense DVOA, but the Steelers’ current offense doesn’t make Johnson a high upside option. You’ll likely need him to find the end zone again to return strong value.
Rookies to Sit:
QB Gardner Minshew, JAX (Wk. 5: @Car.): Week in and week out, Minshew continues to put up solid performances and has proven to be a passable weekly QB2 option. That’s not too bad for a kid that NO ONE thought would start games this year. This week’s matchup isn’t one to target Minshew in though. He still may finish as that steady QB2 he’s been, but it’s hard to see the upside for much more than that. The Panthers are allowing a league-low 182 passing yards per game and have given up just 4 passing scores so far. There are more appealing QB2 options this week.
QB Dwayne Haskins, WAS (Wk. 5: vs. NE): Haskins’ NFL debut was an unmitigated disaster. It makes you wonder why Washington didn’t have him better prepared if they knew they would have such a quick hook with Keenum. It was bad enough that he might not even make the start this week. Colt McCoy is apparently now healthy and could get the nod Sunday. If Haskins does start again, this would be about as bad a week as I could imagine to play him. The Patriots have allowed zero passing scores and have 10 interceptions through 4 games. Run far away from him this week.
RB Alexander Mattison, MIN (Wk. 5: @NYG): Mattison’s fantasy upside this season has been directly tied to game script. He’s done nothing in close games and when the Vikings have trailed (6 carries for 30 yards against Green Bay and Chicago in losses), but he’s shown value in positive game scripts (21-107-1 against Atlanta and Oakland in blowout wins). The Vikings are favored this week by 5.5 points, so there is a chance for another strong outing. If you’re in a really deep league and are confident the Vikes win easily he’s a guy to keep in mind, but be aware that the highest reasonable expectation for Mattison would be in the ballpark of 50 yards and a TD.
RB Ryquell Armstead, JAX (Wk. 5: @Car.): Armstead surprised last week with nearly 50 scrimmage yards and a touchdown, but I wouldn’t chase last week’s points. It was the first extended playing time he’s gotten all year, and he still played just 14 offensive snaps. The Panthers haven’t been great against the run, ranking 29th in run defense DVOA, but I don’t expect Armstead to play enough to take advantage of that.
RB Tony Pollard, DAL (Wk. 5: vs. GB): The Packers look like a defense to target with your running backs this season, but your running back has to see the field to be able to take advantage. Pollard was great against the Dolphins in a blowout win, but in a close game with the Saints on Sunday night he played just 2 offensive snaps. Dallas is favored by 3.5 in this game, but I don’t see Green Bay getting too far out of this one at any point. Keep Pollard sideline this week.
RB Dexter Williams, GB (Wk. 5: @Dal.): Williams will likely get some chances to spell Aaron Jones if Jamaal Williams isn’t recovered from his head injury in time for this one, but I wouldn’t expect the split to be anywhere near as even as it is with Jones and Jamaal. Aaron Jones should operate as the clear lead back. The matchup isn’t ideal as the Cowboys have allowed the 8th-fewest RB points per game. Dexter is also a bit overpriced to be a cheap DFS play at $4,200 on DraftKings,
RB Jon Hilliman, NYG (Wk. 5: vs. Min.): Hilliman saw 10 carries last week with Saquon Barkley out of commission, but much of that work came with the game already out of hand after two Wayne Gallman touchdowns. New York is much less likely to run away with this game as a 5.5-point underdog against the Vikings. There isn’t any reason to consider Hilliman this week.
WR AJ Brown, TEN (Wk. 5: vs. Buf.): Brown came up with a huge performance in week 4, with his second game with 90+ yards while also scoring his first 2 touchdowns. The weekly performance swings with Brown are going to be huge, and this isn’t a week to target him to go off again. The Bills have a reputation as one of the most formidable secondaries in the league and rank 3rd in pass defense DVOA thus far. This is likely to be more of a floor week than ceiling for Brown.
WRs Deebo Samuel & Jalen Hurd, SF (Wk. 5: vs. Cle.): The 49ers have already had one of the toughest WR rotations to figure out from a fantasy perspective, and things get even messier this week with Jalen Hurd expected to make his debut and Tevin Coleman likely to return to steal some targets from the WR group. George Kittle is still option #1 in the passing game, but your guess is as good as mine when it comes to who is #2, 3, and 4. The Browns rank 9th in pass defense DVOA, so I’d prefer to look for other options rather roll the dice on one of the 49ers’ receivers this week.
WR Hunter Renfrow, OAK (Wk. 5: vs. Chi.): Renfrow’s role as the Raiders’ primary slot receiver is secure, but so is his limited upside. He’s yet to top 4 catches or 30 yards in a game and has just 2 red zone targets on the year. He faces the Bears’ elite defense this week. There isn’t a reason to expect a breakout game from Renfrow this week.
WR Miles Boykin, BAL (Wk. 5: @Pit.): Boykin found the end zone for the 2nd time in 4 games last weekend, but he’s still playing behind Willie Snead and Seth Roberts and the Ravens’ passing game runs through Hollywood and Mark Andrews. Boykin will have the occasional game where he finds the end zone, but they’re going to be hard to predict. Until he moves up the depth chart he’s best left on your bench.
WR Andy Isabella, ARI (Wk. 5: @Cin.): There was speculation that this could be the week that Isabella sees an expanded role with Christian Kirk out of action, but head coach Kliff Kingsbury dumped a bucket of cold water on that thought on Wednesday. Kingsbury reiterated that Isabella will continue to work primarily as a perimeter receiver for the time being, and Kirk plays the vast majority of his snaps in the slot. It’s possible that Kliff is just trying to keep plans to unleash Isabella in the slot secret, but for now I’ll take him at his word. Isabella has been running behind KeeSean Johnson and Trent Sherfield on the outside and is yet to play more than 8 snaps in a game. It’s still a situation to monitor on Sunday, but I would avoid playing him anywhere.
TE Zach Gentry, PIT (Wk. 5: vs. Bal.): Gentry profiles as more of a receiving tight end than newly acquired Nick Vannett, but it was Vannett who played 75% of the offensive snaps on Monday night and saw the only 2 tight end targets with Vance McDonald sidelined. If McDonald sits again this week, I wouldn’t expect much to change. The Ravens have given up 60 yards per game to opposing tight ends, but I wouldn’t count on Vannett and Gentry to combine for that amount this week.
TE Foster Moreau, OAK (Wk. 5: vs. Chi.): Moreau had his best game of the year last Sunday, going 3-30-1 on 3 targets, but he still has just 7 targets on the year and isn’t seeing enough volume to even be a DFS dart throw against the Bears in London.
Rookies on Byes: RB Ty Johnson, DET, WR Preston Williams, MIA, TE TJ Hockenson, DET
Deep League Sleepers, Stashes, and Cheap DFS Options:
RB Devin Singletary, BUF (Wk. 5: @Ten.): It appears that Singletary is on track to return from injury this week, but I’d be a little hesitant to trust him to have a full workload after a multi-week layoff. Still, there is some upside for him to have a solid return. The Titans have allowed 6.5 catches per game to opposing RBs. Frank Gore has just 5 targets on the year, and TJ Yeldon played just 7 offensive snaps in the 2 weeks Singletary was active. There is some upside for a decent PPR game if Singletary is a full go this week.
RB Damien Harris, NE (Wk. 5: @Was.): I mainly mention Harris here as a stash in deeper leagues. Sony Michel has been much less effective than expected this year. He has literally zero broken tackles through 4 games and he’s averaged just 2.8 yards per carry. If that continues, he’s eventually going to lose playing time. We’ve already been seeing a decent amount of Rex Burkhead mixing in, but it’s only a matter of time before Harris starts getting looks as well. In his first 2 years as a Patriot, Rex hasn’t exactly been a picture of health, missing 14 of a possible 32 games with a range of maladies. There isn’t a reason to consider Harris this week as he may be inactive again, but he’s definitely a guy to be aware of playing in an offense that has scored 42% of their touchdowns with the ground game since the start of 2017.
WR Parris Campbell, IND (Wk. 5: @KC): This is a moot point if TY Hilton winds up being active this week, but Campbell led the team with 8 targets last Sunday with their WR1 sidelined. They were mostly short targets, but this is a game where game script is likely to force the Colts to throw just as much as they did last week. If he manages to turn a couple of those short throws into bigger gains, he could suddenly be a sneaky WR4 in PPR leagues. Monitor Hilton’s status if you’re considering using Campbell this week.
WR KeeSean Johnson, ARI (Wk. 5: @Cin.): The Christian Kirk injury will open a ton of opportunity in this offense this week, and I don’t imagine that all of it will go to David Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald. Kirk is averaging better than 9 targets per game, and it isn’t as if the Cards will suddenly be run-heavy this week. The Bengals defense is strongest on the perimeter, where Johnson plays, but he’s a better bet to pick up some extra work this week than Trent Sherfield or Pharoh Cooper. That makes him an intriguing DFS dart throw at just $3,500 on DraftKings. The Bengals rank 31st in pass defense DVOA.
TE Noah Fant, DEN (Wk. 5: @LAC): Fant scored his first touchdown of the year in week 4, and while his yardage totals have been between 29 and 37 each week, his snap share has been consistently high. The Chargers have allowed 3 touchdowns to opposing tight ends in the first 4 games, which makes Fant a decent bet to find the end zone for a second consecutive week. There isn’t much more you can ask for from a bottom of the barrel TE option in DFS ($2,800 on DraftKings)
TE Dawson Knox, BUF (Wk. 5: @Ten.): Knox has worked his way into the rotation as the Bills’ primary receiving tight end and has posted lines of 3-67-1 and 3-58 in the past two weeks. He’s only seen 7 targets total in those two games, but so far he’s making the most of them. The Titans allowed a TD to an opposing tight end in each of the first 3 games of the year. They managed to prevent it from becoming 4 straight last Sunday, but they allowed Austin Hooper to go 9-130. This is an enticing matchup for Knox. It’s reasonable to expect him in the 40-50 yard range with possible TD.
That’s all I’ve got for this week. Hopefully it helps you with the toughest lineup decisions you have that involve rookies. Keep on eye on the injury report leading up to the games this week and make sure you don’t start any inactive players. If you have any specific questions for me or just want to yell at me because you started DK Metcalf on my advice last week, feel free to reach out on twitter and let me know (@Shawn_Foss). As always: Good luck, trust your gut, and have fun. It’s just a game.
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